nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2020‒10‒05
forty-one papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Europe Beyond Coal – An Economic and Climate Impact Assessment By Böhringer, Christoph; Rosendahl, Knut Einar
  2. Endogenous Emission Caps Always Produce a Green Paradox By Gerlagh, Reyer; Hejimans, Roweno J. R. K.; Rosendahl, Knut Einar
  3. Comparing empirical and model-based approaches for calculating dynamic grid emission factors: An application to CO2-minimizing storage dispatch in Germany By Braeuer, Fritz; Finck, Rafael; McKenna, Russell
  4. Time and frequency connectedness among oil shocks, electricity and clean energy markets By Muhammad Abubakr Naeem; Zhe Peng; Mouhammed Tahir Suleman; Rabindra Nepal; Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad
  5. Financial Markets and Oil Prices in a Schumpeterian Context of CO2-Allowance Markets By Paul J.J. Welfens
  6. Economic Implications of Global Energy Interconnection By Feng Shenghao; Philip Adams; Zhang Keyu; Peng Xiujian; Yang Jun
  7. CO2 Allowance Price Dynamics and Stock Markets in EU Countries: Empirical Findings and Global CO2-Perspectives By Paul J.J. Welfens; Kaan Celebi
  8. An Adaptive Strategy for Connected Eco-Driving under Uncertain Traffic and Signal Conditions By Hao, Peng; Wei, Zhensong; Bai, Zhengwei; Barth, Matthew
  9. The merge of two worlds: Integrating artificial neural networks into agent-based electricity market simulation By Fraunholz, Christoph; Kraft, Emil; Keles, Dogan; Fichtner, Wolf
  10. Regional Heterogeneous Drivers of Electricity Demand in Saudi Arabia By Jeyhun Mikayilov; Abdulelah Darandary; Ryan Alyamani; Fakhri Hasanov; Hatem Al Atawi
  11. Rationale Klimapolitik fŸr das Erreichen des Ziels KlimaneutralitŠt: NRW-Deutschland-EU-G20Plus By Paul J.J. Welfens
  12. Multi-scale analysis of the water-energy-food nexus in the Gulf region By Siderius, Christian; Conway, Declan; Yassine, Mohamed; Murken, Lisa; Lostis, Pierre-Louis; Dalin, Carole
  13. The impact of electric vehicle density on local grid costs: Empirical evidence By Wangsness, Paal Brevik; Halse, Askill Harkjerr
  14. Implications of Cheap Oil for Emerging Markets By Kabundi,Alain Ntumba; Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte
  15. On the Incremental Investment in Residential Energy Efficiency: A Saudi Perspective By Walid Matar
  16. How Did Africa's Prospective Petroleum Producers Fall Victim to the Presource Curse ? By Mihalyi,David; Scurfield,Thomas
  17. The influence of OPEC+ on oil prices: a quantitative assessment By Quint, Dominic; Venditti, Fabrizio
  18. The tradeoff between indirect network effects and product differentiation in a decarbonized transport market By Andreassen, Gøril Louise; Rosendahl, Knut Einar
  19. The Energy-Management Nexus in Firms : Which Practices Matter, How Much and for Whom ? By Grover,Arti Goswami; Karplus,Valerie Jean
  20. Scenario Forecast of Cross-border Electric Interconnection towards Renewables in South America By Wenhao Wang; Jing Meng; Duan Chen; Wei Cong
  21. Macroeconomic Responses of Emerging Market Economies to Oil Price Shocks: Analysis by Region and Resource Profile By Sophio Togonidze; Evzen Kocenda
  22. Effects of State and Federal Policy on Renewable Electricity Generation By Mullen, Jeffrey D.; Dong, Luren
  23. The Economics of Time-Limited Development Options: The Case of Oil and Gas Leases By Evan M. Herrnstadt; Ryan Kellogg; Eric Lewis
  24. Designing Oil Revenue Management Mechanisms : An Application to Chad By Campagne,Benoit Philippe Marcel; Kitzmuller,Markus; Tordo,Silvana
  25. Policy Pathways to TNC Electrification in California By Fleming, Kelly L.; Cohen D'Agostino, Mollie
  26. Time-Varying Storage Announcement Effect in Natural Gas Market By Farhangdoost, Sara; Etienne, Xiaoli L.
  27. Can embedded knowledge of pollution prevention techniques reduce greenhouse gas emissions? By Lee, Sangyoul; Bi, Xiang
  28. Delay and dilution in the implementation of environmental norms: business groups and the regulation of car emissions in Switzerland in the 1970s–1980s By Pitteloud, Sabine
  29. Contracting for Electricity in Low Income Countries: the Role of Liquidity Constraints and Transaction Costs By Lang, Megan E.
  30. Determinants of smart energy tracking application use at the city level: Evidence from France By Amel Attour; Marco Baudino; Jackie Krafft; Nathalie Lazaric
  31. The Environmental Policy Induced Persistence Risk: Impulse Response Analysis of China’s Plastics Bans in Oil, Plastics and Exchange Markets By Jiang, Jingze
  32. The effects of equitability policies on the ZEV market: Evidence from California’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Project By Fuller, Sam; Brown, Austin
  33. Death of Coal and Breath of Life: The Effect of Power Plant Closure on Local Air Quality By Brown, Jason P.; Tousey, Colton
  34. Alkali-activated Materials: Environmental Preliminary Assessment for U.S. Roadway Applications By Kurtis, Kimberly E.; Lolli, Francesca
  35. Corona Fatality Development, Health Indicators and the Environment: Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries By Lucas Bretschger; Elise Grieg; Paul J.J. Welfens; Tian Xiong
  36. Nudging When the Descriptive Norm Is Low: Evidence from a Carbon Offsetting Field Experiment By Julia Blasch; Stefano Carattini
  37. Revisiting causalities between crude oil and agricultural commodity markets: Quantile and time-varying evidence By Ma, Ruchuan; Xiong, Tao
  38. La “révolution énergétique” américaine : les Etats-Unis vont devenir un exportateur net de pétrole en 2020 By Francis Perrin
  39. Sweating the energy bill: Extreme weather, poor households, and the energy spending gap By Jacqueline Doremus; Irene Jacqz; Sarah Johnston
  40. Strategic implications of counter-geoengineering: clash or cooperation? By Heyen, Daniel; Horton, Joshua; Moreno-Cruz, Juan
  41. Subsidies and Countervailing Measures in the EU Biofuel Industry: A Welfare Analysis By Patrice Bougette; Christophe Charlier

  1. By: Böhringer, Christoph (Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, University of Oldenburg); Rosendahl, Knut Einar (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences)
    Abstract: Several European countries have decided to phase out coal power generation. Emissions from electricity generation are already regulated by the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), and in some countries like Germany the phaseout of coal will be accompanied with cancellation of emissions allowances. In this paper we examine the consequences of phasing out coal, both for the broader economy, the electricity sector, and for CO2 emissions. We show analytically how the welfare impacts for a phaseout region depend on i) whether and how allowances are canceled, ii) whether other countries join phaseout policies, and iii) terms-of-trade effects in the ETS market. Based on numerical simulations with a computable general equilibrium model for the European economy, we quantify the economic and environmental impacts of alternative phaseout scenarios, considering both unilateral and multilateral phaseout. We find that terms-of-trade effects in the ETS market play an important role for the welfare effects across EU member states. For Germany, coal phaseout combined with unilateral cancellation of allowances is found to be welfare-improving if the German citizens value emissions reductions at 65 Euro per ton or more.
    Keywords: Coal phaseout; emissions trading; electricity market
    JEL: D61 F18 H23 Q54
    Date: 2020–06–30
  2. By: Gerlagh, Reyer (Department of Economics, Tilburg University); Hejimans, Roweno J. R. K. (Department of Economics, Tilburg University); Rosendahl, Knut Einar (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences)
    Abstract: For any emission trading system (ETS) with quantity-based endogenous supply of allowances, there exists an allowances-demand reducing policy that increases aggregate supply and thus cumulative emissions. We establish this green paradox in a general model and apply the insights to the Market Stability Reserve (MSR) in the EU ETS, implemented in 2018. We show that demand-reducing policies announced in early periods but realized in the future, such as decisions to phase out coal power, can be inverted by the new rules: they may increase cumulative emissions. We provide quantitative evidence of our result for a model disciplined on the price rise in the EU ETS that followed the introduction of the MSR. Our results point to the need for better coordination between different policies in the "European Green Deal" proposed by the European Commission late 2019.
    Keywords: Emissions trading; Green paradox; EU ETS; environmental policy; dynamic modeling
    JEL: D59 E61 H23 Q50 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2020–05–08
  3. By: Braeuer, Fritz; Finck, Rafael; McKenna, Russell
    Abstract: As one possibility to increase flexibility, battery storage systems (BSS) will play a key role in the decarbonization of the energy system. The emissions-intensity of grid electricity becomes more important as these BSSs are more widely employed. In this paper, we introduce a novel data basis for the determination of the energy system's CO2 emissions, which is a match between the ENTSO-E database and the EUTL databases. We further postulate four different dynamic emission factors (EF) to determine the hourly CO2 emissions caused through a change in electricity demand: the average emission factor (AEF), the marginal power mix (MPM), the marginal system response (MSR) and an energy-model-derived marginal power plant (MPP). For generic and battery storage systems, a linear optimization on two levels optimizes the economic and environmental storage dispatch for a set of 50 small and medium enterprises in Germany. The four different emission factors have different signaling effects. The AEF leads to the lowest CO2 reduction and allows for roughly two daily cycles. The other EFs show a higher volatility, which leads to a higher utilization of the storage system from 3.4 to 5.4 daily cycles. The minimum mean value for CO2 abatement costs over all 50 companies is 14.13 €/tCO2.
    Keywords: Dynamic emission factor,Empirical emission factors,CO2-minimizingdispatch,Energy storage system,German industry,CO2-emissions
    Date: 2020
  4. By: Muhammad Abubakr Naeem; Zhe Peng; Mouhammed Tahir Suleman; Rabindra Nepal; Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad
    Abstract: This paper examines the time and frequency dynamics of connectedness between oil price shocks (demand and supply), and energy, electricity, carbon and clean energy markets using the methodology developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and Barunik and Krehlik (2018). The empirical findings show that there is time-varying connectedness among all variables in the sample. We find increased connectedness during the global financial crisis as well as in the shale oil revolution period. The total connectedness is more significant and higher in the short-term compared to the long-term. Net pairwise directional connectedness become more important during the shale oil revolution among oil supply, oil demand and clean energy index. The findings of the static full sample and sub-samples (GFC and SOR) provide significant evidence of the electricity futures as diversifier and safe-haven asset for oil shocks. These results can have important implications for investors and policymakers with different time horizons.
    Keywords: Oil shocks, Time-frequency connectedness, Electricity market, Carbon price, Clean energy
    JEL: G14 G15 Q41 Q42
    Date: 2020–09
  5. By: Paul J.J. Welfens (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))
    Abstract: CO2 allowance pricing plays an increasingly important role in the EU, Switzerland, the US, Japan, China and other countries. One crucial question is how the CO2 allowance price and the oil price and financial markets, particularly stock markets, are linked. In the enhanced Hotelling approach developed here, the relevant links can be identified in a clear way for countries with CO2 allowance pricing and it is shown that a rise of the relative CO2 allowance price will reduce the oil price in equilibrium and could bring about a rise of stock market prices. The relative oil price is a negative function of the ratio of the real interest rate to the expected oil price inflation rate. Moreover, it is shown that the oil/gas market analysis can be linked to key aspects of the golden age debate in neoclassical growth theory and that the rate of technological progress has an ambiguous influence on the relative price of oil. Factors which reduce (raise) the relative oil price will raise (reduce) the general stock market price index, while the impact on the energy (oil & gas) sub-index in the stock market should be opposite. Policymakers should take the links between innovation and oil/gas prices and the stock markets into account where the linkages between the latter to CO2 mitigation innovation developments also have to be considered; and macroprudential supervisors certainly have to consider these dynamics. If national CO2 Emission Trading Systems are integrated internationally, there will be crucial global effects on climate neutrality, financial markets and output.
    Keywords: Emissions certificates, oil markets, stock market dynamics, carbon trading
    JEL: G10 G12 G15 Q5 Q58
    Date: 2019–12
  6. By: Feng Shenghao; Philip Adams; Zhang Keyu; Peng Xiujian; Yang Jun
    Abstract: This study uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to quantify the economic implications of the proposed Global Electricity Interconnection (GEI) electricity system. Enhancements to the model for this study include: (a) a detailed and up-to-date electricity database; (b) a new fuel-factor nesting structure; (c) re-estimated values for the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) parameters between fossil fuel power generation and non-fossil fuel power generation; (d) a base-case (for years between 2011-2050) consistent with the New Policy Scenario outlined in the World Energy Outlook 2018; and (e) the stylized characteristics of the operation of the GEI network. Modelling results suggest that, by 2050, compared to the base-case: (1) the GEI network will increase world GDP by 0.33 per cent; (2) all regions will benefit from GEI development; (3) world output of coal, oil and gas will fall by 1.4, 0.2 and 0.9 per cent, respectively; (4) the shares of renewable energy in total electricity and total primary energy will increase by 4.3 and 2.9 percentage points; and (5) global CO2 emissions will fall by 0.72 per cent.
    Keywords: GEI (global energy interconnection) CGE (computable general equilibrium) nesting structure CES (constant elasticity of substitution) Economic impacts
    JEL: C68 F17 Q43
    Date: 2020–09
  7. By: Paul J.J. Welfens (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)); Kaan Celebi (Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, Faculty 3: Business and Law, Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the European Institute for International Economic Relations (EIIW) at the University of Wuppertal)
    Abstract: The European Union uses an emissions certificate trading system (the EU ETS) with coverage of both industry and the energy sector CO2 emissions which is based on an EU-wide emissions cap that declines over time. Firms that have an excess stock of CO2 emission permits can sell surplus certificates at the current market price and have to record the value of the excess emission permits as an asset on the balance sheet of the respective company so that the stock market price of companies with an excess supply of certificates should increase while that of firms which have to purchase a considerable amount of additional emissions permits – beyond any initial free allocation by the EU emission trading system – could face a decline in the value of their respective stock market price. An AR-GARCH approach shows the behaviour of the EU stock market oil and gas subindex (STOXX Europe 600 Oil & Gas Producers (SEOG) index) and of the overall stock market index – with somewhat lower empirical impact findings – with regard to positive and negative shocks in terms of the allowance price dynamics. Results indicate that the oil and gas stock index responds asymmetrically to positive and negative price shocks from the CO2 allowance market: The coefficient of the shock dummy is negative and significant, while that of a positive shock dummy is not significant. There is no Granger causality in the direction from CO2 allowance price dynamics to stock market price dynamics, there is, however, a significant Granger causality running from stock markets to CO2 allowance markets in the EU – with a negative sign. The analysis has wide-ranging implications for climate policy and financial market dynamics in the EU, the US and Asia in the long run.
    Keywords: Emissions certificates, assets, stock market dynamics, carbon trading
    JEL: G10 G12 G15 Q5 Q58
    Date: 2020–01
  8. By: Hao, Peng; Wei, Zhensong; Bai, Zhengwei; Barth, Matthew
    Abstract: Connected and automated vehicle technology could bring about transformative reductions in traffic congestion, greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, and energy consumption. Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) can directly communicate with other vehicles and road infrastructure and use sensing technology and artificial intelligence to respond to traffic conditions and optimize fuel consumption. An eco-approach and departure application for connected and automated vehicles has been widely studied as a means of calculating the most energy-efficient speed profile and guiding a vehicle through signalized intersections without unnecessary stops and starts. Simulations using this application on roads with fixed-timing traffic signals have produced 12% reductions in fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. But real-world traffic conditions are much more complex—uncertainties and the limited sensing range of automated vehicles create challenges for determining the most energy-efficient speed. To account for this uncertainty, researchers from the University of California, Riverside, propose a prediction-based, adaptive connected eco-driving strategy. The proposed strategy analyzes the possible upcoming traffic and signal scenarios based on historical data and live information collected from communication and sensing devices, and then chooses the most energy-efficient speed. This approach can be extended to accommodate different vehicle powertrains and types of roadway infrastructure. This research brief summarizes findings from the research and provides research implications. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Autonomous vehicles, Connected vehicles, Ecodriving, Energy consumption, Machine learning, Microsimulation, Signalized intersections, Vehicle mix
    Date: 2020–09–01
  9. By: Fraunholz, Christoph; Kraft, Emil; Keles, Dogan; Fichtner, Wolf
    Abstract: Machine learning and agent-based modeling are two popular tools in energy research. In this article, we propose an innovative methodology that combines these methods. For this purpose, we develop an electricity price forecasting technique using artificial neural networks and integrate the novel approach into the established agent-based electricity market simulation model PowerACE. In a case study covering ten interconnected European countries and a time horizon from 2020 until 2050 at hourly resolution, we benchmark the new forecasting approach against a simpler linear regression model as well as a naive forecast. Contrary to most of the related literature, we also evaluate the statistical significance of the superiority of one approach over another by conducting Diebold-Mariano hypothesis tests. Our major results can be summarized as follows. Firstly, in contrast to real-world electricity price forecasts, we find the naive approach to perform very poorly when deployed model-endogenously. Secondly, although the linear regression performs reasonably well, it is outperformed by the neural network approach. Thirdly, the use of an additional classifier for outlier handling substantially improves the forecasting accuracy, particularly for the linear regression approach. Finally, the choice of the model-endogenous forecasting method has a clear impact on simulated electricity prices. This latter finding is particularly crucial since these prices are a major results of electricity market models.
    Keywords: Agent-based simulation,Artificial neural network,Electricity price forecasting,Electricity market
    Date: 2020
  10. By: Jeyhun Mikayilov; Abdulelah Darandary; Ryan Alyamani; Fakhri Hasanov; Hatem Al Atawi (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Aggregate residential electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia has increased rapidly over the past several decades, largely due to population increases and fast economic growth (SAMA 2019). The growth in electricity consumption has been driven, among other factors, by government-administered prices fixed in nominal terms for years with minor adjustments.
    Keywords: Energy consumption, Energy demand, Energy modeling, Energy policy, Residential electricity
    Date: 2020–09–13
  11. By: Paul J.J. Welfens (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))
    Abstract: Die Analyse zeigt einige wesentliche Ausgangspunkte der Klimapolitik in Deutschland und Nordrhein-Westfalen sowie in der EU. Die vorliegenden Eckpunkte der Deutschen Bundesregierung zur Klimapolitik werden einbezogen. Auf theoretischer Basis und mit Bezug auf neuere Befunde in der Fachliteratur Ð inklusive Buch Welfens, Klimaschutzpolitik. Ende der Komfortzone Ð wird dargestellt, wie erfolgversprechende Wege zur KlimaneutralitŠt bis 2050 aussehen kšnnten und welche Rolle NRW sowie Deutschland bzw. die EU und die G20 (sowie G20Plus=G20+Nigeria) dabei spielen kšnnten. Eine Expansion des CO2-Emissionszertifikate-Handels von 45% Emissionsabdeckung auf 85% - wie in Kalifornien seit 2015 Ð ist fŸr die EU und die G20 empfehlenswert. NRW kann Ÿber Bundesratsinitiativen und eigene PolitikansŠtze bei Bildung, Wissenschaft und Kultur sowie NRW-Bauprojekten und verbesserten NRW-Bauregulierung Fortschritte bei der Klimapolitik erzielen. Entsprechende Zielsetzungen und Ma§nahmen sind notwendig, wobei im mittelfristig wachsenden Emissionshandelssektor NRW- und bundespolitische Eingriffe flexibel im Interesse einer Wirksamkeit der Zertifikate-Marktpreise abzubauen sind. Au§erhalb des Zertifikate-Handelssektors sollte eine CO2-Steuer eingesetzt werden.
    Keywords: Climate policy, climate neutrality, emissions trading, carbon tax
    JEL: O44 Q50 Q52 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2019–10
  12. By: Siderius, Christian; Conway, Declan; Yassine, Mohamed; Murken, Lisa; Lostis, Pierre-Louis; Dalin, Carole
    Abstract: We quantify the heavily oil-dominated WEF nexus in three Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia) across spatial scales and over time, using available empirical data at the national level, and explore the exposure to nexus stresses (groundwater depletion) in other countries through virtual water trade. At the domestic scale, WEF trade-offs are fairly limited; while all sectors require considerable amounts of energy, the requirements for water and food production are modest compared to other uses. At the international scale, revenues from oil exports in the GCC allow the region to compensate for low food production and scarce water availability. This dependency is dynamic over time, increasing when oil prices are low and food prices are high. We show how reducing domestic trade-offs can lead to higher exposure internationally, with rice imports originating in regions where groundwater is being depleted. However, Saudi Arabia’s increased wheat imports, after reversing its food self-sufficiency policy, have had limited effects on groundwater depletion elsewhere. Climate change mitigation links the WEF nexus to the global scale. While there is great uncertainty about future international climate policy, our analysis illustrates how implementation of measures to account for the social costs of carbon would reduce the oil and gas revenues available to import food and desalinate water in the GCC.
    Keywords: WEF nexus; social cost of carbon; security; food trade; embedded groundwater depletion; ES/R009708/1
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2020–09–01
  13. By: Wangsness, Paal Brevik (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Halse, Askill Harkjerr (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences)
    Abstract: We observe a rapid rise in the number of electric vehicles (EVs) in Norway, and there exists a literature that warns that EV charging will cause substantial future costs to the local grid, unless measures are put in place. If indeed the aggregate uncoordinated charging by EV owners does induce higher costs to local grid companies (hereafter DSOs – Distribution System Operators), then Norwegian data would be the first place to investigate. Detailed data of all Norwegian DSOs and all registered EVs during the last ten years gives a unique opportunity to investigate this relationship. To our knowledge, such an empirical analysis has not been done before on real data in a country-wide analysis. Findings may have implications for how to regulate DSOs, how to price household power usage and how to assess the net social cost of achieving emission reduction targets through promoting EVs. We use a fixed effects regression model and find that increases in EV stock are associated with positive and statistically significant increases in DSO costs when controlling for other DSO outputs and applying year dummies. The point estimates also imply that the effect is economically significant. However, there is a lot of heterogeneity in these results, where the marginal cost estimates are a lot higher for small DSOs in rural areas, and a lot lower for larger DSOs in urban areas.
    Keywords: Electric vehicles; Distribution System Operators; local grid costs; local grid capacity; fixed effects regression; peak power tariffs
    JEL: Q41 Q48 Q52 R48
    Date: 2020–01–31
  14. By: Kabundi,Alain Ntumba; Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte
    Abstract: The COVID-19-triggered collapse in oil prices in March and April 2020 was the seventh, and by far the most severe, in a series of such collapses since 1970. This paper, first, compares this most recent collapse and its drivers with previous ones in an event study. It finds that it was associated with an exceptionally severe plunge in oil demand. Second, in a local projections model, this paper estimates the implications of demand- and supply-driven oil price collapses for growth in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). The paper finds that steep oil price collapses were associated with significant and lasting output losses in energy-exporting EMDEs but no meaningful output gains in energy-importing EMDEs. These results are robust to multiple robustness checks.
    Keywords: Energy Demand,Energy and Mining,Energy and Environment,Armed Conflict,Oil Refining&Gas Industry,Macroeconomic Management
    Date: 2020–09–21
  15. By: Walid Matar (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: It has been shown in the literature that, in aggregate, actual household energy efficiency adoption is less than would be expected economically. Energy economists and policy analysts have described this phenomenon as the ‘energy efficiency gap.’ There could be myriad reasons for this gap, such as a lack of information about energy efficiency measures, or household decisions to invest in one energy efficiency measure rendering subsequent measures less attractive. The latter is especially the case when faced with discrete efficiency measures.
    Keywords: Energy Market regulation and reform, Energy Policy, Residential Energy, Energy Efficiency
    Date: 2020–09–14
  16. By: Mihalyi,David; Scurfield,Thomas
    Abstract: This paper reviews resource sector developments in 12 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that made their first (major) petroleum discoveries during the most recent commodity boom. The analysis, which goes back to 2001, looks at sector forecasts of international organizations, governments, and companies and compares them with the results that emerged. The paper finds that a third of the countries did not make any commercially viable discoveries. Among those that potentially had commercial finds, the latest timelines from discovery to production are 73 percent longer on average than initially expected. In the six countries for which there are comparable data, revenue collected thus far or the most recent revenue projections for countries yet to reach production are 63 percent lower on average than the initial forecasts. All 12 countries experienced a disappointment in at least one of the three dimensions analyzed?and these disappointments are likely to be exacerbated by the recent price crash. The paper also documents the various policies adopted in response to the discoveries and -- with the benefit of hindsight -- finds that, in some cases, this over optimism contributed to the'presource curse~^!!^: suboptimal policymaking that did not align with the new realities. Some recommendations are provided on how better to navigate the inherent uncertainties in developing the sector.
    Keywords: Oil Refining&Gas Industry,Oil&Gas,Public Finance Decentralization and Poverty Reduction,Public Sector Economics,Energy Demand,Energy and Mining,Energy and Environment
    Date: 2020–09–08
  17. By: Quint, Dominic; Venditti, Fabrizio
    Abstract: Between January 2017 and March 2020 a coalition of oil producers led by OPEC and Russia (known as OPEC+) cut oil production in an attempt to raise the price of crude oil. In March 2020 the corona virus shock led to a collapse of this coalition, as members did not agree on keeping the oil market tight in the face of a large negative demand shock. Yet, was OPEC+ actually effective in sustaining the price of oil? Between 2017 and early 2020 when the OPEC+ strategy was in place, oil inventories fell substantially and the price of oil reached a peak of around 80 USD per barrel, from a minimum of 30 USD in 2016. This suggests that the OPEC+ strategy had a significant impact on the global oil market. Yet, to what extent did crude prices actually reflect OPEC+ production cuts rather than other factors, like swings in demand for oil? How would the price of oil have evolved had OPEC+ not cut supply? This paper provides an answer to these questions through a counterfactual analysis based on two structural models of the global oil market. We find the impact of OPEC+ on the market was overall quite limited, owing to significant deviations from the assigned quotas. On average, without the OPEC+ cuts, the price of oil would have been 6 percent (4 USD) lower. JEL Classification: Q43, C53
    Keywords: oil demand, oil price, oil supply, OPEC, shale oil
    Date: 2020–09
  18. By: Andreassen, Gøril Louise (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Rosendahl, Knut Einar (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences)
    Abstract: What factors determine whether it is optimal with one or more technologies in a decarbonized road transport sector, and what policies should governments choose? We investigate these questions theoretically and numerically through a static, partial equilibrium model for the road transport market. We find that two important factors that determine whether it will be and whether it should be one or more technologies are how close substitutes the two vehicle technologies are and the number of vehicles of the other technology. Our numerical results indicate that with two incompatible networks, two differentiated goods are optimal compared to only one if they are not too close substitutes. The first-best policy is a subsidy of the markup on charging and filling, where the markup is higher the higher the increased utility of more stations. In addition, to avoid an unwanted lock-in, a temporary stimulus may be needed to reach the stable equilibrium.
    Keywords: Indirect network effects; Decarbonization; Climate policy; Electric vehicles; Hydrogen vehicles
    JEL: H23 L14 L91 Q58
    Date: 2020–03–25
  19. By: Grover,Arti Goswami; Karplus,Valerie Jean
    Abstract: Management practices matter for firm performance. As energy is one input in firm production, management practices may interact with energy use. Using a comprehensive firm-level database covering 31 countries, this study documents the link between structured management practices, energy use, and firm performance. The paper reports several findings. First, although management is negatively correlated with energy expenditure, it bears a positive (or null) relationship with physical energy use, suggesting that management effort is directed toward saving costs but not reducing environmental impact. These results are primarily driven by the manufacturing sector. Second, among the structured management practices examined, those relating to target-setting are associated with reduced energy expenditure intensity. Third, generic management practices are correlated with greater discipline around energy management. Finally, while generic practices are correlated with stronger firm performance in manufacturing and services, energy-centric practices show a positive association only in services. Vast heterogeneity in adoption and outcomes suggests that targeted approaches to encourage energy management practices in firms may be more effective than uniform ones.
    Date: 2020–09–14
  20. By: Wenhao Wang; Jing Meng; Duan Chen; Wei Cong
    Abstract: Cross-border Electric Interconnection towards renewables is a promising solution for electric sector under the UN 2030 sustainable development goals which is widely promoted in emerging economies. This paper comprehensively investigates state of art in renewable resources and cross-border electric interconnection in South America. Based on the raw data collected from typical countries, a long-term scenario forecast methodology is applied to estimate key indicators of electric sector in target years, comparing the prospects of active promoting cross-border Interconnections Towards Renewables (ITR) scenario with Business as Usual (BAU) scenario in South America region. Key indicators including peak load, installed capacity, investment, and generation cost are forecasted and comparative analyzed by year 2035 and 2050. The comparative data analysis shows that by promoting cross-border interconnection towards renewables in South America, renewable resources can be highly utilized for energy supply, energy matrix can be optimized balanced, economics can be obviously driven and generation cost can be greatly reduced.
    Date: 2020–09
  21. By: Sophio Togonidze (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Opletalova 26, 110 00, Prague, Czech Republic); Evzen Kocenda (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Opletalova 26, 110 00, Prague, Czech Republic; Ustav teorie informace a automatizace Akademie ved Ceske Republiky)
    Abstract: This study employs a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse how oil price shocks affect macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies. Findings from existing literature remain inconclusive how macroeconomic variables fare towards shocks, especially in emerging economies. The objective of our study is to uncover if analysis by region (Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe, and Central Asia) and resource intensity of economies (oil exporters, oil importers, minerals exporters, and less resource intensive). Our unique approach forms part of our contribution to the literature. We find that Latin America and the Caribbean are least affected by oil price shocks, while in East Asia and the Pacific the response of inflation and interest rate to oil price shocks is positive, and output growth is negative. Our analysis by resource endowment fails to show oil price shocks’ ability to explain huge variations in macroeconomic variables in oil importing economies. Further sensitivity analysis using US interest rates as an alternative source of external shocks to emerging economies establishes a significant response of interest rate responses to US interest rate in Europe and Central Asia, and in inflation in Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that regardless of resource endowment, the response of output growth and capital to a positive US interest rate shock is negative and significant in EMs. Our results are persuasive that resource intensity and regional factors impact the responsiveness of emerging economies to oil price shocks, thus laying a basis for policy debate.
    Keywords: Emerging market economies, Oil price shocks, Output growth, Panel VAR
    JEL: F44 E37 C11 E32
    Date: 2020–09
  22. By: Mullen, Jeffrey D.; Dong, Luren
    Keywords: Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Demand and Price Analysis
    Date: 2020–07
  23. By: Evan M. Herrnstadt (Congressional Budget Office); Ryan Kellogg (University of Chicago - Harris School of Public Policy); Eric Lewis (Texas A&M University)
    Abstract: Oil and gas leases between mineral owners and extraction firms ubiquitously include royalty and primary term clauses. The royalty denotes the share of revenue that is paid to the mineral owner, and the primary term specifies the date by which the firm must complete a well, lest it lose the lease. Using data from the Louisiana shale boom, we first show that wells' drilling timing is substantially bunched just before lease expiration, raising the question of why leases include development deadlines that distort drilling decisions. We then develop a contracting model in which mineral owners face firms with private information and have the ability to contract on both realized revenue and drilling timing. We show that primary terms can increase both the owner's expected revenue and total surplus because they counteract the delay incentives imposed by the royalty.
    JEL: D82 D86 L24 L71 Q35
    Date: 2020
  24. By: Campagne,Benoit Philippe Marcel; Kitzmuller,Markus; Tordo,Silvana
    Abstract: Oil resources usually play a significant role in oil-rich countries, in gross domestic product and government revenues. High dependence of government revenues on oil can contribute to severe recession following an adverse commodity price shock, such as in 2014. This paper examines the extent to which a fiscal rule or stabilization fund could translate into a less pro-cyclical fiscal policy, with the government saving part of its oil revenues during periods of high prices and drawing down on the savings during difficult periods. Using the macro-structural model MFMod, the paper presents, evaluates, and discusses the strengths and weaknesses of different oil revenue management mechanisms applied to the specific case of Chad. The scenarios demonstrate that a well-designed management rule can successfully insulate the public budget from the oil price cycle, resulting in a significant reduction in the volatility of the economy.
    Keywords: Energy Policies&Economics,Public Finance Decentralization and Poverty Reduction,Public Sector Economics,Public Financial Management,Macroeconomic Management,Financial Sector Policy
    Date: 2020–09–17
  25. By: Fleming, Kelly L.; Cohen D'Agostino, Mollie
    Abstract: Electrifying Transportation Network Company (TNC) vehicles is a high-impact strategy for reducing emissions. This issue paper synthesizes research related to electrification of TNC vehicles and considers policy pathways for addressing barriers to electric-vehicle (EV) use among TNC drivers.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2020–05–01
  26. By: Farhangdoost, Sara; Etienne, Xiaoli L.
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Research Methods/Statistical Methods
    Date: 2020–07
  27. By: Lee, Sangyoul; Bi, Xiang
    Keywords: Resource/Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2020–07
  28. By: Pitteloud, Sabine
    Abstract: During the last decade, we have witnessed increased public concern about vehicle emissions and growing frustration with political inaction and businesses’ preference for the status quo. This paper offers a historical perspective on this debate by shedding light on the political struggle that occurred around the implementation of new regulations reducing air pollution caused by motor vehicles in Switzerland in the 1970s. Relying on archival material from the Swiss Federation of Commerce and Industry and the Federal Archives, the paper analyzes the processes of dilution and delay that characterized these regulations, and the complex interplay of various influences both in Switzerland and at the European level that contributed to this political outcome.
    Keywords: Environmental norms, Vehicle emissions, Lobbying, Business history, Switzerland
    JEL: N54 N84 F64 K32 D72
    Date: 2020
  29. By: Lang, Megan E.
    Keywords: International Development, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Demand and Price Analysis
    Date: 2020–07
  30. By: Amel Attour (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marco Baudino (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jackie Krafft (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nathalie Lazaric (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (... - 2019) - COMUE UCA - COMUE Université Côte d'Azur (2015 - 2019) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants of smart energy tracking app usage by citizens residing in French cities. Our framework is inspired by the extant strands of literature on smart cities and smart home technology adoption, but also contributing to them as smart energy applications reveal specificities that need to be incorporated; the latter include, for instance, the distinction between adoption and frequency of use, or the consideration of additional determinants such as privacy or environmental concerns. For our study, we build an original survey and rely upon citizen-level data, testing a Zero-Inflated Ordered Probit (ZIOP) model which allows to differentiate between adoption of the smart energy app and its frequency of utilisation. Our empirical findings reveal how the drivers related to smart city characteristics mainly affect the decision of adoption of energy tracking apps. Conversely, the more individual characteristics related to the perceived benefits of using energy tracking apps, dwelling type, and privacy concerns, primarily affect the frequency of utilisation. Our results bear policy implications on the issue of privacy, premising additional research on energy challenges in the utilization of energy apps in smart versus non-smart environments.
    Date: 2020–12
  31. By: Jiang, Jingze
    Keywords: Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, Research Methods/Statistical Methods
    Date: 2020–07
  32. By: Fuller, Sam; Brown, Austin
    Abstract: California’s Clean Vehicle Rebate Program (CVRP) is the largest zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) incentive program in the United States. This policy brief summarizes how changes to the CVRP incentive structure may have affected California's ZEV market.
    Keywords: Engineering, Law
    Date: 2020–04–01
  33. By: Brown, Jason P.; Tousey, Colton
    Keywords: Resource/Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2020–07
  34. By: Kurtis, Kimberly E.; Lolli, Francesca
    Abstract: The capital investment in the U.S. for construction and maintenance of the infrastructure road network is on the order of $100 billion/year. On average, investments in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries are likely to stabilize, while China will face an exponential growth of investments for new infrastructures driven by the development of metropolitan cities. Continued “business-as-usual” practice for portland and asphalt cement concrete pavement construction ignores the increasing warning calls for the identification of more sustainable and less energy intensive paving materials. It is therefore important to explore alternative pavement materials, which may have benefits in terms of environmental impact and durability performance over the current technology. Alkali activated materials concrete (AAM) exhibit these beneficial characteristics. AAM compositions have been studied with growing interest during the last three decades, and showing promising results in terms of mechanical performance, while also having a global warming potential impact 30-80% less than that of portland cement concrete. The global warming potential of these material is closely dependent on: 1) the alkali activating solution used to activate the raw material 2) the origin of the raw material. Specifically, the impact of the transport for both of these components has an impact quantifiable around 10% of its global warming potential. Hence, to increase the adoption of AAM for civil applications such as pavements, it is fundamental to analyze the existing literature to clarify the link between environmental and mechanical performance, identifying opportunities for applications that are tailored to the local availability of raw material, reducing transport environmental costs. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Alkali activated materials, life cycle assessment, pavements, CO2 intensity
    Date: 2020–09–01
  35. By: Lucas Bretschger (ETH Zurich, CER-ETH Centre for Economic Research, Department of Management, Technology, and Economics); Elise Grieg (ETH Zurich, CER-ETH Centre for Economic Research, Department of Management, Technology, and Economics); Paul J.J. Welfens (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)); Tian Xiong (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))
    Abstract: This paper presents empirical results on coronavirus fatality rates from cross-country regressions for OECD countries. We include medical, environmental and policy variables in our analysis to explain the death rates when holding case rates constant. We find that the share of the aged population, obesity rates, and local air pollution levels have a positive effect on fatality rates across the different estimation equations, while the share of smokers is not significant in most specifications. The strategy of aiming to achieve herd immunity has a significant positive effect on death rates. Other medical and policy variables discussed in the public sphere do not show a significant impact in our regressions. An evaluation of the different policy stringencies yields mixed results. Our results suggest that improving local air quality helps reduce the negative effects of a coronavirus pandemic significantly. Moreover, we conclude that contributions to certain multilateral organizationsÕ, including the WHO, should not only refer to standard elements of payments such as income (or trade) but also to the share of the population aged 65 years and over and PM2.5 indicators.
    Keywords: Coronavirus Pandemic, Case Fatalities, OECD Countries, Health Systems, Economic Development, Policy
    JEL: F00 F01 I18 Q50
    Date: 2020–06
  36. By: Julia Blasch; Stefano Carattini
    Abstract: Nudges and behavioral interventions have become a popular tool to stimulate prosocial behavior. Little is known, however, on how to design effective social interventions in contexts in which the descriptive norm is low, i.e. when a desirable behavior is only practiced by a minority within the respective reference group. Bringing climate-friendly behaviors from nonnormative to normative is, however, crucial to tackle the climate crisis. We take up this challenge, devise a new strategy for social interventions, and test it with an especially sophisticated target group. In particular, we implemented a field experiment at two subsequent conferences in environmental economics, with which we examine the conference participants’ proclivity to offset their carbon emissions as part of the standard registration process. We introduced two randomized treatment conditions, one relying on social norms and one on social identity, to be compared with a neutral control group. The social norm treatment leverages past contributions to voluntary carbon emissions at those conferences. The social identity treatment primes participants’ social identity as environmental economists. We provide two main insights. First, if properly adjusted to the context, interventions leveraging social norms can be effective in changing behavior also when the descriptive norm is low and when the target group is composed of experts, if targeted individuals feel socially close to the referenced peer group. Second, the effectiveness of such interventions increases as individuals are exposed to multiple “doses” of treatment, although with decreasing marginal returns. Hence, our paper provides novel insights to policymakers and practitioners on the use of social interventions when the descriptive norm is low as well as on the ability of nudges to affect experts.
    Keywords: carbon offsets, social norms, social identity, nudge, field experiment
    JEL: A11 C93 D12 D91 H23 H41 Q54
    Date: 2020
  37. By: Ma, Ruchuan; Xiong, Tao
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis, Agricultural Finance, Marketing
    Date: 2020–07
  38. By: Francis Perrin
    Abstract: Selon les projections officielles de l’U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), les Etats-Unis deviendraient en 2020 un pays exportateur net de pétrole et de produits raffinés, ce qui serait une première depuis les années 1950. Les exportations pétrolières nettes du pays seraient de 570 000 barils par jour, en 2020, alors qu’en 2018 il était importateur net à hauteur de 2,34 millions de b/j. En 2005, les importations pétrolières nettes représentaient 60% de la consommation pétrolière américaine, contre seulement 12% en 2018. Premier producteur mondial de pétrole et de gaz naturel, les Etats-Unis ont largement tiré profit de la ‘’révolution des hydrocarbures de schiste’’ depuis les années 2000, grâce à la combinaison de la fracturation hydraulique et des forages horizontaux. La production pétrolière du pays est en hausse continue depuis 2008 (à l’exception de 2016), et ce mouvement haussier n’est pas arrivé à son terme en dépit d’un ralentissement. Les Etats-Unis sont aussi un exportateur net de gaz et devraient devenir, dans les prochaines années, l’un des plus gros exportateurs de gaz. Par contre, le pays consomme, produit et exporte de moins en moins de charbon, qui est de plus en plus concurrencé par le gaz et par les énergies renouvelables pour la génération d’électricité. Globalement, si l’on prend en compte l’ensemble du secteur énergétique, les Etats-Unis sont devenus un exportateur net sur les neuf premiers mois de 2019, ce qui constitue, là aussi, une première depuis les années 1950. Ces évolutions spectaculaires auront d’importants impacts économiques et géopolitiques, même s’il ne faudrait pas trop rapidement en déduire que Washington se désengagera significativement du Moyen-Orient.
    Date: 2020–01
  39. By: Jacqueline Doremus (Department of Economics, California Polytechnic State University); Irene Jacqz (IAI, Harvard University and Department of Economics, Iowa State University); Sarah Johnston (Department of Agricultrual and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin-Madison)
    Abstract: We find energy spending disparities that indicate extreme weather causes hardship for low-income households. Using the 2004-2018 U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey, we estimate the relationship between temperature and energy spending separately for low-income and all other households. Both groups respond similarly -- in percentage terms -- to moderate temperatures, but low-income households' energy spending is half as responsive to extreme temperatures. We find similar disparities in the food spending response to extreme temperature, consistent with a credit constraints mechanism. These results suggest adaptation to extreme weather, such as air conditioning use, is prohibitively costly for low-income households.
    Date: 2020
  40. By: Heyen, Daniel; Horton, Joshua; Moreno-Cruz, Juan
    Abstract: Solar geoengineering has received increasing attention as an option to temporarily stabilize global temperatures. A key concern is that heterogeneous preferences over the optimal amount of cooling combined with low deployment costs may allow the country with the strongest incentive for cooling, the so-called free-driver, to impose a substantial externality on the rest of the world. We analyze whether the threat of counter-geoengineering technologies capable of negating the climatic effects of solar geoengineering can overcome the free-driver problem and tilt the game in favour of international cooperation. Our game-theoretical model of countries with asymmetric preferences allows for a rigorous analysis of the strategic interaction surrounding solar geoengineering and counter-geoengineering. We find that counter-geoengineering prevents the free-driver outcome, but not always with benign effects. The presence of counter-geoengineering leads to either a climate clash where countries engage in a non-cooperative escalation of opposing climate interventions (negative welfare effect), a moratorium treaty where countries commit to abstain from either type of climate intervention (indeterminate welfare effect), or cooperative deployment of solar geoengineering (positive welfare effect). We show that the outcome depends crucially on the degree of asymmetry in temperature preferences between countries.
    Keywords: climate intervention; solar geoengineering; counter-geoengineering; free-driver; strategic conflicts; game theory; cooperation; externality; global warming; international environmental agreements; ES/R009708/1
    JEL: Q54 H41 D62 D02 D72
    Date: 2019–05–01
  41. By: Patrice Bougette (Université Côte d'Azur; GREDEG CNRS); Christophe Charlier (Université Côte d'Azur; GREDEG CNRS)
    Abstract: In 2019, following several investigations, the European Union decided to impose definitive anti-subsidy (AS) duties on imports of biodiesel from Argentina and Indonesia. While AS duties protect the domestic market and R\&D, this trade defense policy may interfere with environmental preservation. We investigate this issue using an international duopoly model with an environmental externality. We discuss the economic rationale of AS measures in the biodiesel context. We show that the larger the size of the domestic market, the higher the optimal AS level. Second, trade policies are less necessary when firms become more cost-efficient. Third, the sensitivity of AS policies to environmental externalities is ambiguous. Fourth, under certain conditions, the success of the innovation is negatively correlated with the strategic levels of both subsidies and AS policies.
    Keywords: Anti-subsidy, countervailing duties, biodiesel, European Union, trade, environmental impact
    JEL: D43 F18 F13 Q48
    Date: 2020–09

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