nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2020‒09‒14
39 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. The Oil Nouveau-Riche and Arms Imports By Vezina,Pierre-Louis
  2. From fiscal stabilization to economic diversification: A developmental approach to managing resource revenues By Ha-Joon Chang; Amir Lebdioui
  3. Cyber effect and security management aspects in critical energy infrastructures By Tomas Plėta; Manuela Tvaronavičienė; Silvia Della Casa
  4. Optimal Configuration and Diversification of Wind Turbines: A Hybrid Approach to Improve the Penetration of Wind Power By Klie, Leo; Madlener, Reinhard
  5. Financial development,income inequality and carbon emissions in Sub-Saharan African countries: A panel data analysis By Odhiambo, Nicholas M
  6. Good Luck or Good Policy? An Analysis of the Effects of Oil Revenue and Fiscal Policy Shocks: The Case of Ecuador By García-Albán, Freddy; Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel; Vera-Albán, Cristhian
  7. Strukturwandel von Branchen- und Berufsstrukturen. Datenlage und Implementierung der erweiterten Arbeitsmarktmodellierung in das Modell By Wolter, Marc Ingo; Großmann, Anett; Titelbach, Gerlinde
  8. Cambio climático: ¿la humanidad culpable? By Guillermo Maya Muñoz
  9. Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts of Financing Options for Renewable-Energy Policy in Nigeria: Insights from a CGE Model By Oluwasola Emmanuel Omoju; Lulit Mitik Beyene; Emily Edoisa Ikhide; Stephen Kelechi Dimwobi; Augustina Ehimare
  10. Gemeinwohlkonflikte in der Energiewende: Eine radikaldemokratische Perspektive auf Energiekonflikte und die Grenzen der Deliberation By Krüger, Timmo
  11. Effects of Carbon Tax on Electricity Price Volatility: Empirical Evidences from the Australian Market By Nicola Comincioli; Sergio Vergalli
  12. The Effects of Air Pollution on COVID-19 Related Mortality in Northern Italy By Coker Eric; Cavalli Laura; Fabrizi Enrico; Guastella Gianni; Lippo Enrico; Parisi Maria Laura; Pontarollo Nicola; Rizzati Massimiliano; Varacca Alessandro; Vergalli Sergio
  13. Konzeption einer Wasserstoffmodellregion Emscher-Lippe: Ergebnisse des gleichnamigen Teilprojekts im Rahmen von "EnerAct - Energiewende und gesellschaftliche Megatrends. Konkrete Handlungsansätze" By Venjakob, Johannes; Schneider, Clemens; Arnold, Karin
  14. Persistence-Dependent Optimal Policy Rules Persistence-Dependent Optimal Policy Rules By Jean-Bernard Chatelain; Kirsten Ralf
  15. The shale oil boom and the U.S. economy: Spillovers and time-varying effects By Hilde C. Bjørnland; Julia Zhulanova
  16. Closing Wells; Fossil Exploration and Abandonment in the Energy Transition By Inge van den Bijgaart; Mauricio Rodriguez
  17. The effect of local monitoring on nuclear safety and compliance: Evidence from France By Bizet, Romain; Bonev, Petyo; Leveque, Francois
  18. Modelling multi-period carbon markets using singular forward backward SDEs By Chassagneux Jean-Francois; Chotai Hinesh; Crisan Dan
  19. Natural Resource Discoveries, Citizen Expectations and Household Decisions By Cust,James Frederick; Mensah,Justice Tei
  20. Environmental Policy with Green Consumerism By Stefan Ambec; Philippe De Donder
  21. Oil price shocks against stock return of oil- and gas-related firms in the economic depression: A new evidence from a copula approach By Nguyen, Thu Thuy; Tran, T.N.; Nguyen, V.C.
  22. Deforestation and Energy Poverty: Longitudinal Evidence from Malawi By Wu, Yu; Jagger, Pamela; Entwisle, Barbara; Brandt, Kate; Han, Daniel
  23. The Impact of Industrial Energy Efficiency on Economic and Social Indicators By Alessandra Celani de Macedo; Nicola Cantore; Laura Barbier; Marco Matteini; Giorgia Pasqualetto
  24. When nudges fail to scale: Field experimental evidence from goal setting on mobile phones By Löschel, Andreas; Rodemeier, Matthias; Werthschulte, Madeline
  25. Vaca Muerta y las elusivas promesas de desarrollo en Argentina By Francisco J. Cantamutto
  26. Getting Serious About the European Green Deal with a Carbon Border Tax By Roman Stöllinger
  27. Падение в мировую рецессию 2020… By Grigoryev, Leonid; Pavlyushina, Victoria; Muzychenko, Evgeniya
  28. Market transparency and consumer search - Evidence from the German retail gasoline market By Martin, Simon
  29. Windfalls or wind falls? The Local Effects of Turbine Development on US Agricultural Land Values By Pates, Nicholas J.; Kim, GwanSeon; Mark, Tyler B.; Ritter, Matthias
  30. M-LED: Multi-sectoral Latent Electricity Demand Assessment for Energy Access Planning By Giacomo Falchetta; Nicolò Stevanato; Magda Moner-Girona; Davide Mazzoni; Emanuela Colombo; Manfred Hafner
  31. The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe’s Carbon Taxes By Gilbert E. Metcalf; James H. Stock
  32. From local to global: The role of knowledge, transfer, and capacity building for successful energy transitions By Michel, Hanno
  33. Renouveler les approches de l’accès à l’énergie By Stéphanie LEYRONAS; Stéphane BAUDÉ (Nomadéis)
  34. Designing payments for GHG mitigation to induce low carbon bioenergy production By Majeed, Fahd; Khanna, Madhu; Miao, Ruiqing; Blanc, Elena; Hudiburg, Tara; DeLucia, Evan
  35. Firm Behavior under Unanticipated Change in Regulation: Power Plant Emissions During the 2018-2019 Federal Government Shutdown By Zhang, Ruohao; Li, Huan; Khanna, Naha
  36. The Impact of Industrial Energy Efficiency on Economic and Social Indicators By Celani de Macedo, Alessandra; Cantore, Nicola; Barbier, Laura; Matteini, Marco; Pasqualetto, Giorgia
  37. Impact of off-farm employment on household clean energy consumption in rural China: A gender perspective By Chang, Huayi; Zhang, Junbiao; He, Ke; Zeng, Yangmei
  38. Does the COVID-19 Pandemic Improve Global Air Quality? New Cross-National Evidence on Its Unintended Consequences By Dang, Hai-Anh; Trinh, Trong-Anh
  39. The Beneficial Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Air Pollution: Evidence from Vietnam By Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Trinh, Trong-Anh

  1. By: Vezina,Pierre-Louis
    Abstract: Countries that strike it rich when exploring for oil and gas often fail to see growth materialize. This paper shows that one way things can get messy is via squandering new wealth, based on future resource revenues, on arms imports. In the five years following a giant oil or gas discovery, arms imports increase by 25 percent. The effect is even larger, at 51 percent, when the price of oil is as high as $80 per barrel. These estimates can be interpreted causally as the timing of giant oil discoveries is unpredictable due to the uncertain nature of exploration.
    Keywords: Conflict and Fragile States,Social Conflict and Violence,Oil&Gas,International Trade and Trade Rules
    Date: 2020–09–01
  2. By: Ha-Joon Chang; Amir Lebdioui
    Abstract: The management of revenues from exhaustible natural resources involves a number of challenges. In this paper, we argue that the standard policy advice to managers of resource revenues has been dominated by short-termism and the lack of a perspective on economic development and structural transformation. As a result, mainstream approaches have often addressed only the symptoms of commodity dependence (e.g. vulnerability to commodity price volatility) rather than its root causes (insufficiently diversified productive structures).
    Keywords: commodity dependence, Economic development, Natural resources, resource revenue management, Structural transformation
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Tomas Plėta (Mykolas Romeris University); Manuela Tvaronavičienė (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy of Lithuania); Silvia Della Casa (NATO Energy Security Centre of Excellence)
    Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to compare various types of management models that regulate the response to cyber threats to Critical Infrastructures. The development of an effective management model that regulates the response to cyber-attack against Critical Infrastructure is an important issue in security management. Many frameworks attempt to regulate the response that has to be done to recover and eradicate possible threats, but still, there is not a universal appliable model for all Critical Infrastructures. The paper will offer a comparison of various frameworks in an attempt of evaluating the features that a hypothetical model for response to Cyber Incidents to Critical Infrastructures. The focus is on Critical Energy Infrastructure, as their damage directly means damage to other critical infrastructures, given their extreme interconnectivity. After the analysis of five frameworks of responses to Cyber Incidents, an evaluation will be provided, along with a recommendation.
    Keywords: critical infrastructure,management,cyber-attack,energy security,Cybersecurity
    Date: 2020–06–30
  4. By: Klie, Leo (RWTH Aachen University); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))
    Abstract: Literature indicates a decline in the market value of wind power with increasing market penetration. Two promising measures to mitigate this market value drop are system-friendly turbines and geographical diversification. This study analyzes the combined potential of a hybrid approach used to simultaneously improve market values, reduce system costs and the overall subsidy needs in Germany. Therefore, promising diversification regions and site optimal turbine configurations are identified. The corresponding market values and levelized cost of electricity are forecasted for penetration rates of up to 65% (2030). The analysis shows that the market value drop in diversified regions using system-friendly turbines is less severe. Furthermore, the hybrid approach results in system cost and subsidy savings. Additional analyses show that the dominant share of the hybrid approach benefits can be attributed to the use of system-friendly turbines and that diversification does not seem to be a promising alternative for Germany.
    Keywords: Market value; Penetration of renewables; Cannibalization; System-friendly turbines; Geographic diversification
    JEL: O25 P48 Q42 Q48 R32
    Date: 2020–01
  5. By: Odhiambo, Nicholas M
    Abstract: This paper examines the dynamic relationship between financial development, income inequality and CO2 emissions in a step-wise fashion, using data from 39 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries during the period 2004-2014. The study uses three income inequality indicators: the Gini coefficient, the Atkinson index and the Palma ratio, to examine these linkages. The study employs the generalised method of moments (GMM) as the estimation technique. The empirical findings show that financial development unconditionally reduces CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) in SSA countries. The findings also show that there are threshold levels of income inequality that should not be exceeded in order for the negative impact of financial development on CO2 emissions to be sustained. Specifically, the study finds that the negative impact of financial development on CO2 emissions is likely to change to positive if the following inequality levels are exceeded: 0.591, 0.663 and 5.454 respectively for the Gini coefficient, the Atkinson index and the Palma ratio. The findings of this study have far-reaching policy implications, not only for SSA countries, but also for developing countries as a whole. Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa; Financial Development; CO2 Emissions; Income Inequality, GMM
    Date: 2020–07
  6. By: García-Albán, Freddy; Gonzalez-Astudillo, Manuel; Vera-Albán, Cristhian
    Abstract: This paper proposes a framework to estimate the effects of exogenous fiscal policy and oil revenue shocks on the macroeconomic activity of price-taking oil producers. We apply the methodology to Ecuador, using a structural vector autoregressive model estimated with Bayesian methods. Specifically, we investigate the effectiveness of taxes, government consumption spending, government investment spending, and oil revenues on economic activity. The results show that expansive fiscal policy either through taxes or government investment has positive effects on output. However, contrary to most studies in the literature, consumption spending does not seem to have a significant effect. We also find that oil revenue shocks are a key transmission channel that significantly affects all the variables in the model, evidencing the vulnerability of the Ecuadorian economy to fluctuations of oil revenues. In particular, oil revenue shocks have been the most important driving force to move output above or below trend historically.
    Keywords: Fiscal policy, Fiscal multipliers, Oil revenues, Structural VAR, Bayesian estimation
    JEL: C32 E32 E62 Q33 Q43
    Date: 2020–08–24
  7. By: Wolter, Marc Ingo (Gesellschaft fuer Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS),Osnabrueck); Großmann, Anett (Gesellschaft fuer Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS),Osnabrueck); Titelbach, Gerlinde (Institut fuer Hoehere Studien (IHS), Wien)
    Abstract: The project "Effects of climate policy on the Austrian labor market" examines the question what consequences may arise for the employees in their sector and occupational structure if measures are taken to avoid climate change. The working paper describes how labor demand is integrated into the model context of the model (economy-energy-environment in Austria) by additionally differentiating between occupations. As a result, a projection of sector and occupation structures in the present context can be made.
    Keywords: J21-Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure, J23-Labor demand
    JEL: J21 J23
    Date: 2020–08
  8. By: Guillermo Maya Muñoz
    Keywords: cambio climático; CO2; emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero; países desarrollados; crecimiento económico. Keeywords: climate change; CO2; Emissions of greenhouse gases; developed countries; economic growth.
    Date: 2020–01–01
  9. By: Oluwasola Emmanuel Omoju; Lulit Mitik Beyene; Emily Edoisa Ikhide; Stephen Kelechi Dimwobi; Augustina Ehimare
    Abstract: In 2015, Nigeria formulated its Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy (NREEEP) to promote the development of renewable-energy systems in line with the Paris Climate Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. With that as inspiration, we examined the effectiveness and macroeconomic impacts of Nigeria’s renewable-energy policy using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We calibrated the PEP-1-1 CGE model on Nigeria’s updated social accounting matrix (SAM) and ascertained the effects on key energy, economic, and environmental variables. We found that a production subsidy was effective in developing the renewable-electricity sector and encouraging the use of renewable electricity, regardless of how the subsidy was financed. The fiscal incentive for the renewable electricity sector had positive impacts on such key macroeconomic and welfare variables as employment, real GDP, household income, and welfare if the subsidy was financed by government deficit. Macroeconomic impacts were unfavourable, however, if the subsidy was financed by adjustments in government expenditures.
    Keywords: Renewable Energy, Energy Policy and the Macroeconomy, CGE models, Nigeria
    JEL: Q42 Q43 L94 C68
    Date: 2020
  10. By: Krüger, Timmo
    Abstract: Aushandlungsprozesse im Energiebereich bilden oftmals Kristallisationspunkte für Gemeinwohlkonflikte. In den Auseinandersetzungen um konkrete EnergieinfrastrukturProjekte wird darum gerungen, welche Interessen als Interessen der Allgemeinheit und damit als legitime Interessen anerkannt werden und welche nicht. Diese Konflikte sind zunächst einmal eine Reaktion auf die Ausgestaltung der Energiewende und wirken gleichzeitig auf diese zurück. Darüber hinaus stehen die Gemeinwohlkonflikte in der Energiewende in einem wechselseitigen Wirkungsverhältnis mit der politischen Kultur einer Gesellschaft. Sie sind Effekt und gleichzeitig Mitproduzent der in der Gesellschaft verhandelten Vorstellungen von Demokratie und damit verknüpfte Erwartungen, Normen und Werte. Das vorliegende Discussion Paper möchte einen dreifachen Beitrag zur Analyse und Reflexion der Gemeinwohlkonflikte in der Energiewende leisten. Erstens wird ein Überblick über die empirische Forschung zu Gemeinwohlkonflikten in der Energiewende in Deutschland gegeben. Zweitens werden theoretische Gemeinwohldefinitionen und Demokratiemodelle diskutiert. Der Schwerpunkt liegt dabei auf dem deliberativen Paradigma und der radikaldemokratischen Kritik seiner Grundannahmen und Implikationen (angesichts von Tendenzen einer Demokratiekrise). Drittens wird ein Analyseraster zur Erforschung von Gemeinwohlkonflikten aus radikaldemokratischer Perspektive entwickelt.
    Keywords: Agonale Politik,Deliberation,Energiewende,Gemeinwohl,radikale Demokratietheorie,agonistic politics,common good,deliberation,energy transition,radical democracy theory
    Date: 2020
  11. By: Nicola Comincioli (University of Brescia and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Sergio Vergalli (University of Brescia and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)
    Abstract: Among the wide variety of policy options adopted worldwide to control carbon emissions, one of the most environmentally effective and economically efficient is represented by carbon tax, that aims to recoup the damage arising from polluting production processes. In this paper, we focus on the Australian Carbon Pricing Mechanism (CPM) and on the effects that its introduction had on the electricity market. The most relevant effect is the reduction of the level of electricity price’s volatility. This effect has been investigated after having removed, from electricity data time series, the periodic behavior, through a multiple linear regression. Then, to study volatility dynamics, we fit a two-states Markov-switching model to represent a high-volatility and a low-volatility states of the world. This model highlighted that in both states the level of volatility is lower and that the persistence of the second state is increased by the presence of the CPM. This result is particularly important in investment evaluation: knowing the different dynamics of price volatility in presence of a carbon tax or not, can provide crucial information in investment decision and its timing.
    Keywords: Carbon Tax, Seasonality and Volatility of Electricity Price
    JEL: C51 Q41 Q48
    Date: 2020–08
  12. By: Coker Eric (College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida); Cavalli Laura (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Fabrizi Enrico (Department of Economics and Social Sciences, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Guastella Gianni (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Department of Mathematics and Physics, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Lippo Enrico (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Parisi Maria Laura (Department of Economics and Management, Università degli studi di Brescia); Pontarollo Nicola (Department of Economics and Management, Università degli studi di Brescia); Rizzati Massimiliano (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Varacca Alessandro (Department of Agricultural Economics, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore); Vergalli Sergio (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Department of Economics and Management, Università degli studi di Brescia)
    Abstract: Long-term exposure to ambient air pollutant concentrations is known to cause chronic lung inflammation, a condition that may promote increased severity of COVID-19 syndrome caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). In this paper, we empirically investigate the ecologic association between long-term concentrations of area-level fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and excess deaths in the first quarter of 2020 in municipalities of Northern Italy. The study accounts for potentially spatial confounding factors related to urbanization that may have influenced the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 and related COVID-19 mortality. Our epidemiological analysis uses geographical information (e.g., municipalities) and negative binomial regression to assess whether both ambient PM2.5 concentration and excess mortality have a similar spatial distribution. Our analysis suggests a positive association of ambient PM2.5 concentration on excess mortality in Northern Italy related to the COVID-19 epidemic. Our estimates suggest that a one-unit increase in PM2.5 concentration (μg/m3) is associated with a 9% (95% confidence interval: 6% - 12%) increase in COVID-19 related mortality.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Mortality, Pollution, Italy, Municipalities
    JEL: Q53 I18 J11
    Date: 2020–08
  13. By: Venjakob, Johannes; Schneider, Clemens; Arnold, Karin
    Abstract: Die Emscher-Lippe Region ist seit vielen Jahren von einer intensiven wirtschaftlichen Transformation geprägt. Die fortschreitende De-Industrialisierung bzw. die Neuorientierung der Industrie nach dem Wegfall der Kohle- und Stahlindustrie stellt regionale Entscheidungsträger vor große Herausforderungen, wenn es darum geht, der hohen Arbeitslosenquote zu begegnen, Beschäftigungsquoten zu sichern, mit der prekären Finanzsituation in den kommunalen Haushalten umzugehen und den Wirtschaftsstandort zu stabilisieren und neu aufzustellen. Der Strukturwandel der Region ist mit Schließung der letzten Steinkohle-Zeche Ende 2018 nicht abgeschlossen, sondern geht mit dem Kohleausstieg im Energiesektor in eine zweite Phase. Dies sollte auch als Chance verstanden werden, den Wirtschaftsstandort Emscher-Lippe mit seinen energiereichen Industrien innovativ neu zu gestalten und die Region sowohl energetisch, als auch stofflich von der Nutzung fossiler Träger abzukoppeln. Eine wichtige Säule der regionalen Wirtschaftsförderung besteht darin, strategische Netzwerke und regionale Wertschöpfungsketten zu stärken, um die in der Region ansässigen (mittelständischen) Unternehmen zu unterstützen und den Strukturwandel innerhalb der dominierenden Industrien aus den Bereichen Energieerzeugung und chemischer Industrie zu begleiten. Die vorliegende Studie bereitet auf, welche Bedeutung die Wasserstoffwirtschaft in der Emscher-Lippe Region in diesem Zusammenhang derzeit spielt und zukünftig spielen könnte.
    Date: 2020
  14. By: Jean-Bernard Chatelain (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Kirsten Ralf (Ecole Supérieure du Commerce Extérieur - ESCE - International business school)
    Abstract: A policy target (for example inflation) may depend on the persistent component of exogenous shocks, such as the cost-push shock of oil, energy or imported prices. The larger the persistence of these exogenous shocks, the larger the welfare losses and the larger the response of policy instrument to this exogenous shock in a feedback rule, in order to decrease the sensitivity of the policy target to this shock.
    Keywords: Core inflation,Imported inflation,Optimal Policy,Welfare,Policy rule
    Date: 2020–08
  15. By: Hilde C. Bjørnland; Julia Zhulanova
    Abstract: We analyze if the transmission of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To do so, we put forward a framework that allows for spillovers between industries and learning by doing (LBD) over time. We identify these spillovers using a time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model with both state level and country level data. In contrast to previous results, we find considerable changes in the way oil price shocks are transmitted to the U.S economy: there are now positive spillovers to non-oil investment, employment and production from an increase in the oil price- effects that were not present before the shale oil boom.
    Keywords: Shale oil boom, Oil Prices, Time-varying factor-augmented VAR model, Spillovers, Geographical dispersion
    JEL: C11 C55 E32 E42 Q43
    Date: 2019–08–07
  16. By: Inge van den Bijgaart; Mauricio Rodriguez
    Abstract: Despite ambitious climate goals and already substantial stocks of developed fossil energy reserves, development of new fossil energy reserves continues to be high. This raises concerns, as it reinforces the fossil industry’s opportunities and incentives to continue extraction, and may necessitate abandonment of developed fossil reserves to meet climate targets. In this paper, we analyze the energy transition, considering fossil exploration and development activities. We provide conditions for when the fossil industry will abandon reserves, and establish that continued exploration of fossil resources is not incompatible with abandoning developed reserves. The first-best implementation of a carbon budget always involves reserve abandonment, and thus exploration that pushes developed reserves in excess of the remaining budget. A quantitative assessment reveals that a volume equal to 9-19% of current oil and gas reserves are optimally abandoned, and that, even under a 1.5oC warming target, positive exploration of new reserves is justified for another decade.
    Keywords: carbon budget, energy transition, fossil exploration, non-renewable resources, renewable energy, stranded assets
    JEL: Q21 Q31 Q35 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2020
  17. By: Bizet, Romain; Bonev, Petyo; Leveque, Francois
    Abstract: WWe estimate the effect of local monitoring and information disclosure on safety and compliance with self-reporting standards in the French nuclear sector. We use a novel dataset on deviations from safety, radiological and environmental standards recorded in the French nuclear fleet since 1978. We find that while local monitoring and information increases significantly compliance, it has little or no direct effect on safety.
    Keywords: Monitoring, compliance, safety regulation, reporting, cuclear safety
    JEL: D22 L51 M42 Q42 Q48 Q58
    Date: 2020–09
  18. By: Chassagneux Jean-Francois; Chotai Hinesh; Crisan Dan
    Abstract: We introduce a model for the evolution of emissions and the price of emissions allowances in a carbon market such as the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The model accounts for multiple trading periods, or phases, with multiple times at which compliance can occur. At the end of each trading period, the participating firms must surrender allowances for their emissions made during that period, and additional allowances can be used for compliance in the following periods. We show that the multi-period allowance pricing problem is well-posed for various mechanisms (such as banking, borrowing and withdrawal of allowances) linking the trading periods. The results are based on the analysis of a forward-backward stochastic differential equation with coupled forward and backward components, a discontinuous terminal condition and a forward component that is degenerate. We also introduce an infinite period model, for a carbon market with a sequence of compliance times and with no end date. We show that, under appropriate conditions, the value function for the multi-period pricing problem converges, as the number of periods increases, to a value function for this infinite period model, and that such functions are unique.
    Date: 2020–08
  19. By: Cust,James Frederick; Mensah,Justice Tei
    Abstract: Major oil and gas discoveries are often associated with excitement and jubilation among citizens and government officials. But the extent to which discoveries substantially alter citizen expectations about economic conditions in a country remains an open question. The paper combines Afrobarometer data on household expectations on economic conditions and living standards with the announcement of oil and gas discoveries in Africa to estimate the effect of discoveries on expectations. The identification strategy exploits plausibly exogenous variation in the timing of discoveries relative to the rollout of survey interviews. The study find that discoveries increase expectations of better economic conditions and living standards by 35 and 52 percent respectively. Further, the paper finds that the overall expectations boom effect pertains only to countries with weaker institutions. The paper also provides evidence that households incorporate these expectations into their migration and fertility decisions, with fewer applications in the short run to the U.S. green card lottery and increased childbirth following discovery announcements.
    Keywords: Educational Sciences,Oil&Gas,Gender and Development
    Date: 2020–08–31
  20. By: Stefan Ambec; Philippe De Donder
    Abstract: Is green consumerism beneficial to the environment and the economy? To shed light on this question, we study the political economy of environmental regulations in a model with neutral and green consumers where the latter derive some warm glow from buying a good of higher environmental quality produced by a profit-maximizing monopoly, while the good bought by neutral consumers is provided by a competitive fringe. Consumers unanimously vote for a standard set at a lower than first-best level, or for a tax delivering the first-best environmental protection level. Despite its under-provision of environmental protection, the standard dominates the tax from a welfare perspective due to its higher productive efficiency, i.e., a smaller gap between the environmental qualities of the two goods supplied. In stark contrast, voters unanimously prefer a tax to a standard when the willingness to pay for greener goods is small enough.
    Keywords: environmental regulation, corporate social responsibility, green consumerism, product differentiation, tax, standard, green label, political economy
    JEL: D24 D62 Q41 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2020
  21. By: Nguyen, Thu Thuy; Tran, T.N.; Nguyen, V.C.
    Abstract: This research examines the influence of world crude oil price shocks on the financial performance of Vietnamese oil- and gas-related firms. Based on copula approach and the sample data of domestic giant oil- and gas firms from 2009 to 2019, in particular in the situation of oil price steadily going up and economic depression of 2011–2012; approximately nine copulas including Gauss, Clayton, Rotated-Clayton, Plackett, Frank, Gumbel, Rotated-Gumbel, Student, Symmetrized-Joe-Clayton have been focused. A new evidence could be found that the oil price shocks have not impacted on the stock return of oil- and gas-related firms in the wave of increasing oil price, but a lagged period of time oil- and gas-related firms could receive more stock returns. The results further demonstrate that world oil price fluctuations have significantly impacted on the financial performance of some firms as PVS, PVG, and PET in the pre-depression period. In respect to the economic depression of 2011–2012, the study reveals no evidence in the relationship between world oil price fluctuations and stock returns of oil- and gas-related firms. In other words, results in the post-depression period suggest that world oil price shocks can affect stock returns of selected giant oil- and gas-related firms.
    Date: 2020–07–30
  22. By: Wu, Yu; Jagger, Pamela; Entwisle, Barbara; Brandt, Kate; Han, Daniel
    Keywords: Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, International Development, Community/Rural/Urban Development
    Date: 2020–07
  23. By: Alessandra Celani de Macedo (UNIDO); Nicola Cantore (UNIDO); Laura Barbier (UNIDO); Marco Matteini (UNIDO); Giorgia Pasqualetto (UNIDO)
    Abstract: Inclusive and sustainable industrial development implies environmental friendly industrial growth with positive implications for social targets such as employment generation. One of the most important options available to policymakers for reducing CO2 emissions is industrial energy efficiency, which is particularly relevant for the discussion on green industrialization. Despite this intuitive concept, the economics measurement toolkit still lacks a methodological framework to analyse the extent to which energy efficiency interventions can generate simultaneous economic, environmental and employment-related improvements to boost inclusive and sustainable industrial development. This study fills this gap by introducing an original approach based on input-output tables to estimate the impact of improvements in industrial energy efficiency on value added, employment and energy savings among industries in the Republic of North Macedonia. The results show that triple dividends are possible in terms of inclusive and sustainable industrial development. Whereas a positive impact on employment is found in every scenario, a positive outcome in terms of value added essentially depends on the country’s capacity to produce goods that accommodate firms’ increasing demand from their use of energy cost savings.
    Keywords: Economics, Input-output Analysis, Employment Creation, Energy Efficiency
    JEL: Q40 Q49
    Date: 2020–08
  24. By: Löschel, Andreas; Rodemeier, Matthias; Werthschulte, Madeline
    Abstract: Non-pecuniary incentives motivated by insights from psychology ("nudges") have been shown to be effective tools to change behavior in a variety of fields. An often unanswered question relevant for public policy is whether these promising interventions can be scaled up. In cooperation with a large public utility in Germany, we develop an energy savings application for mobile phones that can be used by the majority of the population. The app randomizes a goal-setting nudge prompting users to set themselves energy consumption targets. The roll-out of the app is promoted by a mass-marketing campaign and large financial incentives. Results document low demand for the energy app in the general population and a tightly estimated null effect of the nudge on electricity consumption among app users. A likely mechanism of the null effect is unfavorable self-selection into the app: users are characterized by an already low baseline energy consumption and exhibit none of the behavioral biases that typically explain why goal setting affects behavior. We also find that the nudge significantly decreases the likelihood to use the app over time. Structural estimates imply that the average user is willing to pay 7.41 EUR to avoid the nudge and the intervention would yield substantial welfare losses if implemented nationwide.
    Keywords: nudging,goal setting,scalability,field experiments,energy,behavioral welfare economics,mobile phones
    JEL: C93 D91 Q49
    Date: 2020
  25. By: Francisco J. Cantamutto
    Keywords: Modo de desarrollo; energía; Vaca Muerta; extractivismo; Argentina; hidrocarburos. Keywords: development pattern; energy; Vaca Muerta; extractivism; Argentina; hydrocarbons.
    JEL: O1 O5 Q4 L5
    Date: 2020–01–01
  26. By: Roman Stöllinger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: In December 2019 the incoming European Commission announced the European Green Deal (EGD), which aims to turn the EU into a climate-neutral, circular economy. Although it is as yet not very specific in many areas, the EU’s Green Deal sends the right signal and contains several promising elements. One of these is the introduction of a carbon border adjustment (CBA) mechanism mentioned as an option in the EGD. Apart from supporting the ecological objectives of the EGD, a carbon border tax can help to counter carbon leakage in EU industries that results from the EU’s internal carbon pricing system. This way, distortions of competition in energy-intensive industries due to asymmetric domestic carbon pricing policies can be partially remedied. Another positive side effect of a carbon border tax is that it would add a new source of income to the EU budget that is independent of Member States’ direct contributions. To reap this “triple dividend”, the CBA needs to be carefully designed both economically and legally. In particular, a European CBA mechanism needs to be compatible with the EU’s WTO obligations under the GATT. While this is challenging, it is perfectly feasible. Therefore the EU should introduce a carbon border tax as soon as possible, even though this is a high-risk strategy that is likely to increase existing tensions in the international trading system and will probably require an adjustment of its current trade policy.
    Keywords: Carbon border tax, externalities, ecological transformation, WTO, EU budget
    JEL: E01 O11 O40 O47
    Date: 2020–08
  27. By: Grigoryev, Leonid; Pavlyushina, Victoria; Muzychenko, Evgeniya
    Abstract: All world upward trends and cycles have a lot in common while crises significantly differ. In the case of this research the recession was sparked not by the shock of financial sector but by the restrictions imposed on consumption that previously was not inclined to fluctuate that much. Oil price shock has increased negative influence on the world energy market and economy overall. The decline in employment and personal consumption has struck more on most vulnerable social classes but the decreased volume of demand can be also attributed to the wealth (catering, tourism and others). Once began, the recession develops by its own rules — a sharp fall in the world trade, fixed capital formation, growth of budget deficits, and particularly strong impact on developing countries most dependent on tourism and financial assistance.
    Keywords: pandemic, coronavirus, COVID-19, business cycle, social inequality, personal consumption, capital formation, finance
    JEL: A14 D11 F02
    Date: 2020
  28. By: Martin, Simon
    Abstract: We study a novel trade-off in market transparency regulation by estimating a structural model of the German retail gasoline market. Transparent environments enable easy price comparisons and match findings. Restricting transparency such that only the cheapest offers are shown induces firms to compete for attention, but matching is inefficient. We find that there is an inverse u-shaped relationship between consumer welfare and market transparency. Consumer welfare is maximal when only the first 20% of prices are shown, which decreases consumer expenditures by 1.2%. Our framework allows estimating games of incomplete information with very lax data requirement.
    Keywords: market transparency,consumer search,awareness,consideration sets,retail gasoline prices
    JEL: D22 D43 D83 L13 L50
    Date: 2020
  29. By: Pates, Nicholas J.; Kim, GwanSeon; Mark, Tyler B.; Ritter, Matthias
    Keywords: Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development
    Date: 2020–07
  30. By: Giacomo Falchetta (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Cattolica University); Nicolò Stevanato (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Politecnico di Milano, Department of Energy); Magda Moner-Girona (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)); Davide Mazzoni (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)); Emanuela Colombo (Politecnico di Milano, Department of Energy); Manfred Hafner (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), John Hopkins University SAIS and Sciences Po PSIA)
    Abstract: Globally about 800 million people live without electricity at home, over two thirds of which are in sub-Saharan Africa. Ending energy poverty is a key development priority because energy plays an enabling role for human wellbeing and economic activities. Planning electricity access infrastructure and allocating resources efficiently requires a careful assessment of the diverse energy needs across space, time, and sectors. However, because of data scarcity, most country or regional-scale electrification planning studies have been based on top-down electricity demand targets. Yet, poorly representing the heterogeneity in the electricity demand can lead to inappropriate energy planning, inaccurate energy system sizing, and misleading cost assessments. Here we introduce M-LED, Multi-sectoral Latent Electricity Demand, a geospatial data processing platform to estimate electricity demand in communities that live in energy poverty. The key novelties of the platform are the multi-sectoral, bottom-up, time-explicit demand evaluation and the assessment of water-energy-agriculture-development interlinkages. We apply the methodology to the country-study of Kenya. Our findings suggest that a bottom-up approach to evaluating energy needs across space, time, and sectors is likely to improve the reliability and accuracy of supply-side electrification modelling and therefore of electrification planning and policy.
    Keywords: Electricity Access, Energy Demand, Rural Development, Bottom-up Modelling, Sub-Saharan Africa, Multi-sectoral Approach, Water-Energy-Food-Environment Nexus
    JEL: Q4 Q41 O13
    Date: 2020–08
  31. By: Gilbert E. Metcalf; James H. Stock
    Abstract: Policy makers often express concern about the impact of carbon taxes on employment and GDP. Focusing on European countries that have implemented carbon taxes over the past 30 years, we estimate the macroeconomic impacts of these taxes on GDP and employment growth rates for various specifications and samples. Our point estimates suggest a zero to modest positive impact on GDP and total employment growth rates. More importantly, we find no robust evidence of a negative effect of the tax on employment or GDP growth. We examine evidence on whether the positive effects might stem from countries that used the carbon tax revenues to reduce other taxes; while the evidence is consistent with this view, it is inconclusive. We also consider the impact of the taxes on emission reductions and find a cumulative reduction on the order of 4 to 6 percent for a $40/ton CO2 tax covering 30% of emissions. We argue that reductions would likely be greater for a broad-based U.S. carbon tax since European carbon taxes do not include in the tax base those sectors with the lowest marginal costs of carbon pollution abatement.
    JEL: E62 H23 Q43 Q54
    Date: 2020–07
  32. By: Michel, Hanno
    Abstract: Germany has set the challenging goal of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent by the year 2020 as compared to 1990 (BMUB 2014). This German Energiewende (energy transition) has led to significant changes in the electricity sector, such as a continuously increasing percentage of renewable energies, supported by corresponding governance and political efforts. However, despite these political and economic efforts, the 2020 goal will most likely only be reached due to the tremendous unplanned effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy usage for transport and mobility (Agora Energiewende 2020). In addition to technological advances, a change in individual and collective behavior seems highly necessary to achieve future transition goals. The aim of this discussion paper is to summarize the state of research on how people's behavior in the context of climate change and energy transitions is shaped, and to put forward potential avenues for further research and action. The paper departs at a local level by looking at factors that guide citizens' individual energy-related actions and thus impact their energy-saving behavior. Knowledge about climate change and energy is generally believed to influence a person's energyrelated behavior, although its measured effects vary significantly in different studies examining it. This may partly be due to the fact that knowledge is often assessed in a declarative way in these studies, instead of looking at knowledge-in-use (i.e. applying that knowledge to solve a problem in a meaningful way instead of simply stating that knowledge). This working paper thus argues for moving from climate and energy knowledge towards climate and energy literacy, with literacy involving knowledge, skills, and attitudes. With a climate and energy literacy perspective, as well as existing frameworks for how energy-related behavior can be modelled and explained, it theorizes how individual climate-friendly behavior can lead to collective action regarding energy transitions. As knowledge transfer and capacity building play a big role when scaling local solutions to a global level, the discussion paper advocates for concentrated efforts in interdisciplinary capacity building and lays out potential directions for future research.
    Keywords: energy transitions,education,knowledge transfer,capacity building
    Date: 2020
  33. By: Stéphanie LEYRONAS; Stéphane BAUDÉ (Nomadéis)
    Abstract: Dans le cadre des projets d’accès à l’énergie (électrification et énergie thermique), les approches introduisant une dimension en lien avec la notion des communs se distinguent par le fait que les usagers y jouent un rôle actif, ce rôle étant construit en partant « d’en bas », fondant la légitimité des règles opérationnelles sur la proximité des rapports sociaux. Ces dernières peuvent répondre aux problèmes récurrents d’entretien des mini-réseaux, de fraudes et d’impayés ainsi que de gestion durable des ressources naturelles. Elles comportent aussi des éléments de réponses aux défis spécifiques, notamment l’accompagnement sur la durée de la communauté locale, la structuration d’un schéma de gouvernance ad hoc et la reconnaissance par les autorités nationales de la capacité de la communauté à s’auto-organiser. Ainsi pensée, l’introduction d’une dimension de communs dans les projets d’accès à l’énergie ou de gestion de sources d’énergie primaire vulnérables, telles que l’eau ou la biomasse, peut se concrétiser à travers différentes formes institutionnelles et contractuelles : elle est complémentaire, plutôt qu’antagoniste, de l’action publique et du marché.
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2020–09–02
  34. By: Majeed, Fahd; Khanna, Madhu; Miao, Ruiqing; Blanc, Elena; Hudiburg, Tara; DeLucia, Evan
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty
    Date: 2020–07
  35. By: Zhang, Ruohao; Li, Huan; Khanna, Naha
    Keywords: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2020–08
  36. By: Celani de Macedo, Alessandra; Cantore, Nicola; Barbier, Laura; Matteini, Marco; Pasqualetto, Giorgia
    Abstract: Inclusive and sustainable industrial development implies environmental friendly industrial growth with positive implications for social targets such as employment generation. One of the most important options available to policymakers for reducing CO2 emissions is industrial energy efficiency, which is particularly relevant for the discussion on green industrialization. Despite this intuitive concept, the economics measurement toolkit still lacks a methodological framework to analyse the extent to which energy efficiency interventions can generate simultaneous economic, environmental and employment-related improvements to boost inclusive and sustainable industrial development. This study fills this gap by introducing an original approach based on input-output tables to estimate the impact of improvements in industrial energy efficiency on value added, employment and energy savings among industries in the Republic of North Macedonia. The results show that triple dividends are possible in terms of inclusive and sustainable industrial development. Whereas a positive impact on employment is found in every scenario, a positive outcome in terms of value added essentially depends on the country’s capacity to produce goods that accommodate firms’ increasing demand from their use of energy cost savings.
    Keywords: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2020–09–08
  37. By: Chang, Huayi; Zhang, Junbiao; He, Ke; Zeng, Yangmei
    Keywords: Community/Rural/Urban Development, Labor and Human Capital, Resource/Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2020–07
  38. By: Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Trinh, Trong-Anh (World Bank)
    Abstract: Despite a growing literature on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, scant evidence currently exists on its impacts on air quality. We offer the first study that provides cross-national evidence on the causal impacts of COVID-19 on air pollution. We assemble a rich database consisting of daily, sub-national level data of air quality for 178 countries before and after the COVID-19 lockdowns, and investigate their impacts on air quality using a Regression Discontinuity Design approach. We find the lockdowns to result in significant decreases in global air pollution. These results are consistent across measures of air quality and data sources and robust to various model specifications. Some limited evidence emerges that countries with a higher share of trade and manufacturing in the economy or with an initially lower level of air pollution witness more reduced air pollution after the lockdowns; but the opposite result holds for countries near the equator. We also find that mobility restrictions following the lockdowns are a possible explanation for improved air quality.
    Keywords: regression discontinuity design, COVID-19, air pollution, mobility restriction
    JEL: D00 H00 O13 Q50
    Date: 2020–07
  39. By: Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Trinh, Trong-Anh
    Abstract: Little evidence currently exists on the effects of COVID-19 on air quality in poorer countries, where most air pollution-linked deaths occur. We offer the first study that examines the pandemic’s impacts on improving air quality in Vietnam, a lower-middle income country with worsening air pollution. Employing the Regression Discontinuity Design method to analyze a rich database that we compile from satellite air pollution data and data from various other sources, we find the concentration of NO2 to decrease by 24 to 32 percent two weeks after the COVID-19 lockdown. While this finding is robust to different measures of air quality and model specifications, the positive effects of the lockdown appear to dissipate after ten weeks. We also find that mobility restrictions are a potential channel for improved air quality. Finally, our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that two weeks after the lockdown, the economic gains from better air quality are roughly $0.6 billion US dollars.
    Keywords: COVID-19,air pollution,mobility restriction,RDD,Vietnam
    JEL: D00 H00 O13 Q50
    Date: 2020

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