|
on Energy Economics |
| By: | Timilsina,Govinda R.; Deluque Curiel,Ilka Fabiana |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes impacts on the power sector in the Middle East and North Africa region of three policies: removal of fuel subsidies, cross-border electricity trade, and reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in line with commitments under the Paris Agreement. The analysis uses a power system planning model that minimizes the total electricity supply cost over 2018?35 by satisfying specified technical, economic, environmental, and policy constraints. The study shows that the region would save between US$26.3 billion and US$27.5 billion, measured in 2018 prices, by removing subsidies of natural gas used for power generation. It would save US$83.6 billion to US$90.9 billion through cross-border electricity trade. The two policies together would yield a reduction of 10 percent in cumulative power sector carbon dioxide emissions in the region, with a net cost savings of US$111 billion. If a carbon constraining policy is considered to achieve the same level of reduction of emissions, the cost of the power system would increase by US$97 billion. The study also reveals that the benefits of subsidy removal would be higher in the presence of cross-border trade, and the benefits of cross-border trade would be higher in the absence of fuel subsidies. |
| Keywords: | International Trade and Trade Rules,Energy Policies&Economics,Energy and Environment,Energy Demand,Energy and Mining,Oil Refining&Gas Industry,Power&Energy Conversion |
| Date: | 2020–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9297&r=all |
| By: | Pietzcker, Robert Carl; Osorio, Sebastian; Rodrigues, Renato |
| Abstract: | The EU Green Deal calls for climate neutrality by 2050 and 2030 emission reductions of 50-55% vs. 1990. Achieving these reductions requires a substantial tightening of the EU emissions trading system (EU-ETS). This paper explores how the power sector would have to change in reaction to a tighter EU ETS target, and analyses the technological and economic implications. To cover the major ETS sectors, we combine a detailed power sector model with a marginal-abatement cost curve representation of industry emission abatement. We find that tightening the target would speed up the transformation by 3-15 years for different parts of the electricity system, with renewables contributing two-thirds of the electricity in 2030, EU-wide coal use almost completely phased-out by 2035 instead of 2050, and zero electricity generation emissions reached by 2050. Carbon prices within the EU ETS would more than double to 60€/tCO2 in 2030, reducing cumulated power sector emissions from 2020-2055 by 45% compared to a scenario with the current target. This transformation would come at limited costs: total discounted power system costs would only increase by 5%. We test our findings against a number of sensitivities: increased electricity demand, which might arise from sector coupling, increases deployment of wind and solar and prolongs gas usage. Not allowing transmission expansion beyond 2020 levels shifts investments from wind to PV, hydrogen and batteries, and increases total system costs by 3%. Finally, unavailability of fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) or further nuclear investments does not impact results, while unavailability of bioenergy-based CCS (BECCS) has a small impact (3%) on emissions. |
| Keywords: | Power sector decarbonization,EU Emission Trading System (ETS),European Green Deal,Renewable Energy,Carbon capture and storage (CCS),Electricity Sector |
| JEL: | Q4 C61 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:222579&r=all |
| By: | Keeley, Alexander Ryota; Matsumoto, Ken'ichi; Tanaka, Kenta; Sugiawan, Yogi; Managi, Shunsuke |
| Abstract: | This study combines regression analysis with machine learning analysis to study the merit order effect of renewable energy focusing on German market, the largest market in Europe with high renewable energy penetration. The results show that electricity from wind and solar sources reduced the spot market price by 9.64 €/MWh on average during the period from 2010 to 2017. Wind had a relatively stable impact across the day, ranging from 5.88 €/MWh to 8.04 €/MWh, while the solar energy impact varied greatly across different hours, ranging from 0.24 €/MWh to 11.78 €/MWh and having a stronger impact than wind during peak hours. The results also show characteristics of the interactions between renewable energy and spot market prices, including the slightly diminishing merit order effect of renewable energy at high generation volumes. Finally, a scenario-based analysis illustrates how different proportions of wind and solar energies affect the spot market price. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy sources, Electricity spot price, Intermittency, Merit order effect, Boosting. |
| JEL: | Q41 Q42 Q47 Q56 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102314&r=all |
| By: | Isaac, Raphael S |
| Abstract: | The last century brought a shift in rail propulsion from the (typically) coal-powered steam engine to a combination of the diesel-electric locomotive and the electrified locomotive running under electrified overhead lines. While, no doubt, an advance over the earlier technology, the two incumbent technologies are not without their shortcomings. In the current era, rapid technological developments and increased concerns about climate change have also spurred interest away from the internal combustion engine and the use of fossil fuels in various applications. These same technologies hold promise in a rail context, a mode of transportation that relies on a smaller number of more centralized operators. With the tremendous investment of time, cost, and other resources that can go into a pilot experiment of a fuel technology and, often, related regulatory processes, it makes sense to determine the key candidates for such pilots. A major goal of this work is to help industry and government narrow down the key technologies, in terms of cost, viability, and environmental impacts, and simultaneously identify the challenges that may be encountered by a given technology that otherwise appears to hold significant promise. This study focuses on a U.S. context, and on the period between 2022 and 2038. Passenger and freight rail routes and systems were examined, each with different characteristics, via simulations of a single rail trip, A general environmental analysis was also performed on freight switcher locomotive activity. The fuels examined included diesel, natural gas, Fischer-Tropsch diesel, hydrogen, and, in a passenger rail and switcher context, diesel and hydrogen powertrains paired with batteries to take in regenerative braking energy. The study finds cost reductions with both natural gas and (natural gas-derived) Fischer-Tropsch diesel, but with limited environmental benefits. Hydrogen via fuel cell has significant promise to reduce GHG and criteria pollutant emissions. That technology’s costs, both fuel and equipment, are highly uncertain; however, the study finds that, with lower bound projected costs, it could be competitive with diesel-electric costs; in the case of passenger rail, hybridization with batteries is also compelling. Hybridized hydrogen also was found to demonstrate a clear environmental benefit in switcher locomotive applications. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, fuel, passenger rail, freight rail, hydrogen |
| Date: | 2020–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3wt0n8tx&r=all |
| By: | Iegor Riepin; Thomas M\"obius; Felix M\"usgens |
| Abstract: | The interdependence of electricity and natural gas markets is becoming a major topic in energy research. Integrated energy models are used to assist decision-making for businesses and policymakers addressing challenges of energy transition and climate change. The analysis of complex energy systems requires large-scale models, which are based on extensive databases, intertemporal dynamics and a multitude of decision variables. Integrating such energy system models results in increased system complexity. This complexity poses a challenge for energy modellers to address multiple uncertainties that affect both markets. Stochastic optimisation approaches enable an adequate consideration of uncertainties in investment and operation planning; however, stochastic modelling of integrated large-scale energy systems further scales the level of complexity. In this paper, we combine integrated and stochastic optimisation problems and parametrise our model for European electricity and gas markets. We analyse and compare the impact of uncertain input parameters, such as gas and electricity demand, renewable energy capacities and fuel and CO2 prices, on the quality of the solution obtained in the integrated optimisation problem. Our results quantify the value of encoding uncertainty as a part of a model. While the methodological contribution should be of interest for energy modellers, our findings are relevant for industry experts and stakeholders with an empirical interest in the European energy system. |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2008.07221&r=all |
| By: | Datt, Gaurav (Monash University); Maitra, Pushkar (Monash University); Menon, Nidhiya (Brandeis University); Ray, Ranjan (Monash University); Dey, Sagnik (Indian Institute of Technology Delhi); Chowdhury, Sourangsu (Indian Institute of Technology Delhi) |
| Abstract: | Economic growth in emerging market economies has come hand-in-hand with growing demand for energy, with many of them meeting this higher demand by increased use of coal to fuel electricity generation. This paper examines the impact of pollution generated by coal fueled power units on the anemic status of children and women in India. We show that among very young children (aged 0–5 years), the number of coal units in the district in the month and year of birth significantly increases the likelihood of being anemic net of a comprehensive set of child, mother, household and district level controls. Exposure in utero matters as well for child anemia, while the number of coal plants in the district also induce greater anemia among adult women. Impacts on anemic status are driven by the growth of PM2.5 pollution attributable to emissions from coal-powered units. We undertake a series of falsification and specification checks to underline the robustness of our results. Our research adds anemia to the list of significant health costs of relying on coal-fired power generation in meeting the increasing demand for energy that emerging market economies like India face. |
| Keywords: | anemia, coal units, PM2.5, air pollution, children, women, India |
| JEL: | I15 Q32 Q53 O12 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13522&r=all |
| By: | Timilsina,Govinda R. |
| Abstract: | The levelized cost of electricity is the most common indicator used to compare the cost competitiveness of electricity-generating technologies. Several studies claim that some renewable energy technologies, particularly utility-scale solar photovoltaic and onshore wind, are cost-competitive with fossil fuel?based technologies. However, there is no consensus on this point considering the wide variations in factors that influence the levelized costs of electricity across countries and technologies. This study calculates more than 4,000 levelized costs of electricity for 11 technologies, varying key input variables. The study shows that the levelized costs of electricity for renewable electricity technologies, except concentrated solar and offshore wind, are lower than those for fossil fuel?based technologies at the lower range of capital costs and discount rates of 10 percent or lower. However, for a reasonable range of input variables, calculations of the levelized costs of electricity for renewables based on reasonable parameter values do not justify the low auction prices for solar power, below US$20 per megawatt hour, recently observed in some parts of the world. The study also highlights the shortcomings of the levelized cost indicator for comparing the cost-competitiveness of different types of electricity generation technologies. |
| Date: | 2020–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9303&r=all |
| By: | Ridhima Gupta (South Asian University, India); Martino Pelli (Université de Sherbrooke and CIREQ) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the causal link between electrification and the adoption of modern (and cleaner) cooking fuels, more specifically Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG). In order to correct for the potential endogeneity, we exploit an instrumental variables approach that allows us to capture the part of the variation in electrification which is not related to factors that are also likely to affect a household’s choice of cooking fuel. Our instrument interacts state-level supply shifts in hydro-electric power availability with the initial level of electrification of each district. The results are consistent with an expansion of households’ choice set under a fixed budget constraint. We find that electrification leads to an increase in the probability of adoption of (free) biomass fuels and a decrease in the probability of adoption of (costly) modern cooking fuels. These results are statistically significant only for the poorest 50% of households in our sample, while they become statistically insignificant when we move to the richest 50%. The same is true for the share of expenditure in a specific fuel. These results seem to indicate that electrification by creating an additional strain on households’ finances pushes them back on the energy ladder. |
| Keywords: | rural electrification, cooking fuel, energy ladder, fuel stacking |
| JEL: | O12 O13 Q56 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtl:montec:01-2020&r=all |
| By: | Pejman Bahramian (Department of Economics, Queen's University); Glenn Jenkins; Frank Milne (Queen's University) |
| Abstract: | The displacement impacts of wind power generation on other generation technologies are estimated for Ontario. In addition, their annual financial benefits, costs, and internationalstakeholder impacts are measured. For every 100 MWh generated, almost 53 MWh of gas output and 23 MWh of hydro output is displaced, and 19 MWh of power is exported. Ontario loses 826.42 million USD annually from having wind power generation in the system, while the US gains 7.50 million USD through electricity exported from Ontario. Wind power generation has produced an estimated 108.98 million USD in reducing CO2 emissions in the US and Ontario through displacing thermal generation. Comparing the environmental benefits with the net cost to consumers shows the promotion of wind power generation to be largely a waste of Ontario’s resources. |
| Keywords: | wind power, thermal displacement, CO2 emissions, stakeholder analysis |
| JEL: | D61 F18 F64 H23 H25 H43 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:wpaper:1440&r=all |
| By: | Pejman Bahramian (Department of Economics, Queen’s University, Kingston, Canada); Glenn P. Jenkins (Department of Economics, Queen's University, Kingston, Canada and Eastern Mediterranean University, North Cyprus); Frank Milne (Department of Economics, Queen’s University, Kingston, Canada) |
| Abstract: | The displacement impacts of wind power generation on other generation technologies are estimated for Ontario. In addition, their annual financial benefits, costs, and international stakeholder impacts are measured. For every 100 MWh generated, almost 53 MWh of gas output and 23 MWh of hydro output is displaced, and 19 MWh of power is exported. Ontario loses 826.42 million USD annually from having wind power generation in the system, while the US gains 7.50 million USD through electricity exported from Ontario. Wind power generation has produced an estimated 108.98 million USD in reducing CO2 emissions in the US and Ontario through displacing thermal generation. Comparing the environmental benefits with the net cost to consumers shows the promotion of wind power generation to be largely a waste of Ontario’s resources. |
| Keywords: | wind power, thermal displacement, CO2 emissions, stakeholder analysis |
| JEL: | O10 Q48 |
| Date: | 2020–08–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qed:dpaper:4563&r=all |
| By: | L. (Lisa B.) Ryan; Ewa Lazarczyk; Guneet Kaur |
| Abstract: | Electricity market design is evolving with the increase in electricity generated from renewable sources. The market system was originally designed for dispatchable fossil fuel electricity generation with high marginal costs rather than renewable electricity generation with nearly zero marginal costs and high upfront capital costs. When short term prices no longer cover long term investment costs, new market design is needed. An alternative is to increase interconnection to facilitate increased trade between markets (Pollitt and Chyong, 2018). Economic theory would suggest that eliminating barriers to trade across a regional market will decrease consumer costs and producer profits in areas that increase imports, while increasing producer profits and consumer costs in areas that increase exports (Dahlke, 2018). Trade through interconnectors can exploit differences in wind and sun conditions across regions and so reduce supply variability; higher shares of renewable electricity raises the value of market integration even further (Newbery et al., 2018). In this context, the EU has been progressively harmonizing national and regional electricity markets, to form a single market that includes more than 500 million people. The Multi-Regional Coupling organized through European power exchanges coordinates the clearing of day-ahead markets and determines day-ahead prices across the countries involved (Politico, 2018). In the 1996, 2003 and 2009 EU electricity directives, the development of integrated wholesale power markets across the continent was encouraged in order to incentivise market-driven investment in generation across Europe. The Internal Energy Market (IEM) in Europe provides for free trade across border and non-discrimination between internal and cross-border transactions. On October 1st 2018, Ireland was one of the final countries to integrate with this market due to the small isolated nature of this synchronous system which required additional precautions to put in place new market arrangements. The Irish electricity market has been a wholesale all-island market (including Northern Ireland, called the SEM) since 2007. The integration of the all-island electricity market with European electricity markets was expected to increase the use of the interconnector with Great Britain which should “deliver increased levels of competition which should help put a downward pressure on prices as well as encouraging greater levels of security of supply and transparency” (EirGrid, 2016). In addition to integration with Europe, other features were included in the new I-SEM market, such as changes to how energy is bought and sold; how generators are remunerated for availability; forward trading arrangements and market liquidity; market power controls; and the systems, policies and procedures that are required to operate the market (EirGrid, 2016). This has led to new balancing, capacity, and intraday markets that did not previously exist in the Irish market. With the integration of the Irish market, the IEM now comprises 20 countries, with 38 interconnectors and a total generating capacity of over 3,000 TW (EirGrid, 2016). The European Target model sets out the common rules and arrangements for market coupling in Europe. It includes a common price coupling algorithm for scheduling day-ahead markets and determining flows between geographic regions. The energy transactions involving sellers and buyers from different bidding zones are centrally collected to maximise the most efficient and effective trades. In theory, unless the network is congested, markets should converge to a single price. When the network is congested, prices diverge. The integration of the Irish electricity market with the IEM provides a natural experiment with which to test economic theory relating to the benefits of interconnection, regional electricity trade, and market rule changes for consumers,producers and markets. While there is an extensive literature on electricity market design and theory, it is rare to find empirical data such as this with which to test the theory. This integration is relatively recent, yet it provides an ideal opportunity to examine in detail several features over the period directly before and after the change. Ireland, as an isolated market. Ireland has been identified as a country at the forefront of market change due to the high share of renewable electricity and its isolated market (Polllitt and Chyong, 2018). It also serves as a good case study, as there are less confounding factors in an analysis of market design, compared with more geographically integrated countries. |
| Keywords: | Electricity markets; SEM; I-SEM; Price volatility; Interconnections |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/11468&r=all |
| By: | Byambasuren Lkhagvadorj (University of the Humanities, Mongolia); Javzandolgor Purevsuren (University of the Humanities, Mongolia); Amgalan Bazargarid (University of the Humanities, Mongolia) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study was to define how climate change is changing in response to positive and negative human behavior. Climate change, in general, refers to changes that take place over a period of tens of thousands of years, involving a particular region or part of the world without human intervention. Climate change takes many forms, depending on the region and the industry in which it operates. The effects of global warming, drinking water shortages, endangered species, and extinction have begun to affect the world's attention and daily lives. And the Nudge effect has become widespread as people's tendency to change their choices has spread. In the last decade, however, climate change has accelerated due to human activities. Since 2008, the effects of the Nudge have had a profound effect on the lives of powerful people. The word nudge means to push lightly or gently stab into the ribs, especially with an elbow. The biggest example is people making smart and healthy choices to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Choosing the right food can reduce food waste. Greenhouse gas emissions vary from the food we eat and the way we process it. We estimated multiple regression model for CO2 emissions, GDP growth, energy consumption and factors of human behavior about climate changing data from 1959 to 2018. We found that compared to previous years, greenhouse gas emissions were 4.2 billion square meters less than in previous years. This is a very important result of our research, and shows that the global response to climate change since 1992 has been effective. The use of electric magnes, becoming a vegetarian, riding a bicycle, and becoming a minimalist are the result of Nudge effect. By choosing to be a vegetarian, the level of CO2 emissions from food is greatly reduced. The fact that greenhouse gas emissions from food waste are equivalent to greenhouse gas emissions from electric vehicles, so the Nudge effect suggests that the results are positive. |
| Keywords: | Nudge theory, CO2 emission, world warming, make decision |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:spaper:044bl&r=all |
| By: | Ioannou, Petros; Giuliano, Genevieve; Dessouky, Maged; Chen, Pengfei; Dexter, Sue |
| Abstract: | International trade continues to increase, with container trade growing at a 9.5% annual rate worldwide and at a 6% annual rate in the United States. Container ships are also getting bigger to meet this growing demand. As a result, cargo is concentrated into the largest ports, which intensifies bottlenecks on the road networks surrounding these ports. Thus, logistics companies are faced with increasing complexity in their operations and increasing traffic congestion that adds costs, as well as greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollution. The transition to zero emission truck technology could add further complexity, requiring companies to plan for electric trucks’ shorter ranges and longer refueling times. Researchers at the University of Southern California developed a centrally coordinated freight routing system and ran several simulations to minimize the social costs of freight transportation, also accounting for adoption of electric trucks. The researchers also interviewed several individuals with responsibility for trucking operations in the Los Angeles region to better understand the implementation issues of a centrally coordinated freight routing system. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Alternate fuels, Electric vehicle charging, Electric vehicles, Fleet management, Freight traffic, Routing, Trucks, Zero emission vehicles |
| Date: | 2020–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1m62h1dd&r=all |
| By: | Xuemei Zhenga (School of Economics, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Chengdu, China); Flavio Menezes (School of Economics, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia); Rabindra Nepal (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia) |
| Abstract: | This is the first study to investigate and quantify the extent to which the 2015 reform has already impacted the economic and technical performance as well as the security of supply of China’s electricity sector. We use provincial data from 2003 to 2018 to estimate the impacts of the reform on on-grid prices, average retail electricity prices (including those for households) and supply reliability. We adopt fixed effect models together with other dynamic panel data models. We find that the 2015 reform has already had a negative impact on on-grid prices of electricity generated from thermal energy and on overall average retail prices, but the impacts on other prices are not statistically significant. Our results also suggest that the 2015 reform has had significantly negative impacts on technical efficiency, as measured by the coal burned per unit of thermal generation, but no impact on the line loss rate of electricity transmission. In addition, our empirical analysis suggests that the 2015 reform has reduced reliability and increased the instances of supply interruptions. These results are robust to different estimators and models. Finally, the effect of the reform is heterogeneous across regions. Our findings suggest that additional steps are needed to further improve the overall economic efficiency of the electricity sector in China, despite significant progress arising from the 2015 reform. The results may also provide useful lessons for other developing economies aiming to reform their power sectors and who are facing similar choices between the roles of the state and the market in ensuring efficient outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Electricity sector reform, Market mechanism, China |
| JEL: | L94 P21 P28 |
| Date: | 2020–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:633&r=all |
| By: | Suyunchev, Marat (Суюнчев, Марат) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Mozgovaya, Oksana (Мозговая, Оксана) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration); Kuznetsov, Vasiliy (Кузнецов, Василий) (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper abstracts the results of research scientific work "The tariff effects research of comparative method for default electricity supplier’s regulation", preconditions and the results of the transition to implementation of a comparative method at retail markups establishment to the default electricity suppliers have been investigated. In particular, it is been assessed as the application of the comparative method affected the growth of retail markups of default electricity suppliers, prices of electric energy for ultimate customers and financial position of the default electricity suppliers. According to the results of the research the main problems associated with the transition to the comparative method in activity regulation of default electricity suppliers have been revealed, and practical recommendations for improving the methodology of activity regulation of default electricity suppliers using the comparative method (yardstick costs) have been established. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:052012&r=all |
| By: | Banie Naser Outchiri (Université de Sherbrooke); Jie He (Université de Sherbrooke) |
| Abstract: | Based on a highly disaggregated database (1033 products, 181 partners) that we have built in physical terms, we investigate the drivers of China’s environmental trade cost (measured by CO2 emissions) from 1995 to 2014. To do this, we first used the “material balance” method to estimate China’s environmental trade cost. Then, we applied a new procedure to identify the drivers of China’s environmental trade cost that contributes to a better understanding of the trade’s role in environmental issues. Finally, we employed additive index decomposition analysis to estimate the contribution of each driver and their statistical accuracy. The results show that China faces a significant environmental cost as a result of its trade integration. Over the period, China’s environmental trade cost first was constant and relatively low from 1995 to 2001, then increased sharply from 2001 to 2008 before falling in 2009 and restarting unstable growth between 2010 and 2014. The decomposition results show that the increase in China’s environmental trade cost is explained by the fact that China’s technical catch-up is no longer able to offset the foreign demand effect and the product mix effect of exports. This is mainly due to the sharp increase in foreign demand for Chinese products and the fact that China’s export structure is becoming dirty mainly due to China-North trade patterns. There are some evidences that dirty production has slowly shifted from rich countries (especially North) to China, and clean production has moved in the opposite way. This has become more important after China’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, more specifically since 2004. Therefore, our results are better explained by the pollution haven hypothesis. |
| Keywords: | Carbon intensity, Emissions embodied in trade, Product level physical database, Material balance method, Index decomposition analysis. |
| JEL: | F18 O13 Q56 Q54 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:20-07&r=all |
| By: | Yu, Bo (Deakin University); Lee, Wang-Sheng (Deakin University); Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa (Deakin University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of a sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions quota introduced as part of China's 11th Five-Year Plan on internal movements of high-skilled labour across Chinese prefecture cities. Using data on migration flows calculated through changes in Hukou status, this study suggests that a 1,000 tons increase in the SO2 emissions reduction quota leads on average to approximately a 1.5 percentage points increase in high-skilled net outmigration. Compared to the largest prefectures, this regulation effect is twice as large in the smaller regulated prefectures. A possible mechanism could be that the implementation of SO2 quotas decreases relative labour demand in polluting industries in the regulated cities in the short term, thereby resulting in sectoral transitions from dirty-to-clean industries as well as skilled net outmigration flows. However, this net outmigration trend fades in the long term due to stabilisation in air quality. Our findings help contribute to a broader understanding of the effects of environmental policies on internal labour migration and labour force dynamics. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, China, emissions quota, environmental policy, internal migration, sulphur dioxide |
| JEL: | J61 O15 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13479&r=all |
| By: | Tensay Meles; L. (Lisa B.) Ryan; Sanghamitra Mukherjee |
| Abstract: | Renewable sources of home heating like heat pump systems are expected to play a vital role in mitigating the adverse effects of carbon-intensive heating systems. Compared to conventional heating systems, heat pump systems are more energy efficient, have low maintenance and operational costs and provide reliable and environmentally friendly home heating. Despite those advantages, the uptake of heat pumps has been low among the Irish population and little is known about the factors that affect their adoption. This paper uses a discrete choice experiment approach to investigate preferences for heat pumps in the residential sector based on nationally representative household survey data from Ireland. We analyse the choice data using a mixed logit model and estimate the marginal willingness to pay for bill savings, environmentally sustainable, installation hassles and increase in home comfort using both models in preferences space and in willingness to pay (WTP) space. Our results show that upfront cost, bill savings, environmental sustainability and installation hassle significantly influence household uptake of heat pumps. The estimated results also reveal the presence of heterogeneous preferences. Furthermore, the results show that households are willing to pay for heat pumps; however, the values might not be large enough to cover the higher upfront costs of, for example, a ground source heat pump. Overall, the study highlights that policy makers should consider the various financial and non-financial factors that influence adoption and heterogeneity in preferences in designing policy intervention aimed at increasing the uptake of heat pumps. |
| Keywords: | Heat-pump system; Choice experiment; Mixed logit model; Willingness to pay |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/11467&r=all |
| By: | Daniel \v{S}tifani\'c; Jelena Musulin; Adrijana Mio\v{c}evi\'c; Sandi Baressi \v{S}egota; Roman \v{S}ubi\'c; Zlatan Car |
| Abstract: | COVID-19 is an infectious disease that mostly affects the respiratory system. At the time of this research being performed, there were more than 1.4 million cases of COVID-19, and one of the biggest anxieties is not just our health, but our livelihoods, too. In this research, authors investigate the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy, more specifically, the impact of COVID-19 on financial movement of Crude Oil price and three U.S. stock indexes: DJI, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite. The proposed system for predicting commodity and stock prices integrates the Stationary Wavelet Transform (SWT) and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BDLSTM) networks. Firstly, SWT is used to decompose the data into approximation and detail coefficients. After decomposition, data of Crude Oil price and stock market indexes along with COVID-19 confirmed cases were used as input variables for future price movement forecasting. As a result, the proposed system BDLSTM+WT-ADA achieved satisfactory results in terms of five-day Crude Oil price forecast. |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2007.02673&r=all |
| By: | KAPSARC, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | The world needs cooling. Air conditioning (AC) and refrigeration protects our health and productivity at home and work, and supports a host of critical services such as internet data centers, food delivery, and medicine. Around 1.6 billion AC units are in use globally, consuming over 2,000 terawatthours (TWh) of electricity every year, or about 2.5 times the total electricity use in Africa. |
| Keywords: | Cooling, Cooling demand, Cooling degree days |
| Date: | 2020–08–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:wbrief:ks--2020-wb08&r=all |
| By: | Beyer,Robert Carl Michael; Franco Bedoya,Sebastian; Galdo,Virgilio |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted economic activity in India. Adjusting policies to contain trans- mission while mitigating the economic impact requires an assessment of the economic situation in near real-time and at high spatial granularity. This paper shows that daily electricity consumption and monthly nighttime light intensity can proxy for economic activity in India. Energy consumption is compared with the predictions of a consumption model that explains 90 percent of the variation in normal times. Energy consumption declined strongly after a national lockdown was implemented on March 25, 2020 and remained a quarter below normal levels throughout April. It recovered somewhat subsequently, but electricity consumption was on average still 13.5 percent lower than normal in May. Not all states and union territories have been affected equally. While electricity consumption halved in some, others were not affected at all. Part of the heterogeneity is explained by the prevalence of manufacturing and return migration. At the district level, higher COVID-19 infection rates were associated with larger declines in nighttime light intensity in April. Together, daily electricity consumption and nighttime light intensity allow monitoring economic activity in near real-time and high spatial granularity. |
| Date: | 2020–06–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9291&r=all |
| By: | Sanchez, Melissa; Karimi, Matin; Elmalawany, Omar |
| Abstract: | With a growing population of one hundred twenty-six million (World Bank, 2018), Mexico is accountable for one hundred thirty-one thousand metric tons of CO2 emissions annually, which makes the country 13th largest producer of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (Boden et al., 2017). Moreover, Mexico's plastic waste is also predicted to be twenty million tons annually (Lira, 2019). This shows that an increasing level of CO2 emission and plastic waste will impede the achievement of three vital Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as Climate Action (SDG13), Life on Land (SDG15), and Life under the Sea (SDG14). To achieve these three essential SGDs, Mexico's government should encourage and support green startups that are introducing environmentally friendly alternatives for the existing means of production and consumption. |
| Keywords: | Green Finance, Green Startup, Green Startup in Mexico, Mexico Green Initiatives, Seed capital, Crowdfunding, Green Startup Incubators, Green Startup Accelerators |
| JEL: | G15 G21 G28 G32 O44 Q01 Q21 Q28 |
| Date: | 2020–01–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102347&r=all |
| By: | Antosiewicz, Marek (Institute for Structural Research (IBS)); Fuentes, J. Rodrigo (University of Chile); Lewandowski, Piotr (Institute for Structural Research (IBS)); Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jan (Institute for Structural Research (IBS)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we assess the distributional impact of introducing a carbon tax in Poland. We apply a two-step simulation procedure. First, we evaluate the economy-wide effects with a dynamic general equilibrium model. Second, we use a microsimulation model based on household budget survey data to assess the effects on various income groups and on inequality. We introduce a new adjustment channel related to employment changes, which is qualitatively different from price and behavioural effects, and is quantitatively important. We nd that the overall distributional effect of a carbon tax is largely driven by how the revenue is spent: distributing the revenues from a carbon tax as lump-sum transfers to households reduces income inequality, while spending the revenues on a reduction of labour taxation increases inequality. These results could be relevant for other coal-producing countries, such as South Africa, Germany, or Australia. |
| Keywords: | climate policy, carbon tax, distributional effect, microsimulation, general equilibrium, employment |
| JEL: | H23 P18 O15 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13481&r=all |
| By: | Probst,Benedict Sebastian; Holcroft,Richard; Huenteler,Joern Thorsten; Balabanyan,Ani; Tipping,Andrew; Robinson,Peter |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a classification of investor risks and surveys 51 private investors and financiers in the power sector in Sub-Saharan Africa. The paper aims for a better understanding of what can be done to attract private solutions to fill the investment gap. It finds that the average investor assigns more weight to power sector policy and regulatory framework risks than to the wider sector and country context risks. And, despite many challenges, investors perceive three segments as ready for private solutions in Sub-Saharan Africa: power generation, off-grid electrification, and mini-grids. Investors see lower readiness in distribution, transmission, and retail. The paper finds that the average investor is forward-looking, as neither the track record of the power sector nor the firm?s personal track record is as important as the growth potential in the market. The paper uses the findings to reality-check data-based measures of regulatory readiness, namely the Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy and Power Sector Reform Index and analyzes which elements correlate best with investor sentiment to optimize and streamline these indexes accordingly. The results provide important lessons for governments and development partners to devise appropriate de-risking instruments tailored to the risks that matter most to investors. |
| Date: | 2020–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9299&r=all |
| By: | Hung-Hao Chang; Chad Meyerhoefer; Feng-An Yang |
| Abstract: | Recent studies demonstrate that air quality improved during the coronavirus pandemic due to the imposition of social lockdowns. We investigate the impact of COVID-19 on air pollution in the two largest cities in Taiwan, which were not subject to economic or mobility restrictions. Using a generalized difference-in-differences approach and real-time data on air quality and transportation, we estimate that levels of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter increased 5 - 12 percent relative to 2017 - 2019. We demonstrate that this counterintuitive finding is likely due to a shift in preferences for mode of transport away from public transportation and towards personal automobiles. Similar COVID-19 prevention behaviors in regions or countries emerging from lockdowns could likewise result in an increase in air pollution. |
| JEL: | I12 Q53 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27604&r=all |
| By: | Jiti Gao; Bin peng; Russell Smyth |
| Abstract: | Obtaining reliable cross-country estimates of the income and price elasticity of energy demand requires a panel data model that can simultaneously account for endogeneity, heterogeneity, nonstationarity and cross-sectional dependence. We propose such an integrated framework and apply it to a very large dataset of 65 countries over the period 1960-2016 recently assembled by Liddle and Huntington (2020). We find that while the elasticities of income and price are non-linear, the income elasticity is generally in the range 0.6 to 0.8 and the price elasticity in the range -0.1 to -0.3. We also find that the income elasticity has been declining since the 1990s, which broadly corresponds to increasing awareness of the negative externalities associated with burning fossil fuels associated with the Kyoto Protocol. From a policy perspective, that the income energy elasticity is less than one, and has been declining since the 1990s, bodes well for climate change mitigation because it suggests that energy intensity will fall with economic growth. |
| Keywords: | elasticity, energy policy, panel data analysis |
| JEL: | C23 O13 Q11 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2020-28&r=all |
| By: | Grigoryev, Leonid; Makarov, Igor; Sokolova, Anna; Pavlyushina, Victoria; Stepanov, Ilya |
| Abstract: | In recent decades, economic growth in developing economies and the growth of the middle class lead to a surge in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Within the framework of the United Nations (UN) sustainable development goals established in 2015, the solution to poverty and inequality thus comes into conflict with climate change mitigation. The existing international system of climate regulation does not address this contradiction. Today, global climate governance relies on estimates of aggregate emissions by countries without considering their level of development and the distribution of emissions among income groups within each country. Emissions from production are being monitored, while consumption-related emissions, albeit known to experts, rarely underlie decision-making. Meanwhile, income distribution has a higher impact on consumption-based emissions in comparison to production-based ones. Decisions on emissions regulation are made at the national level by countries with different development agendas in which climate change mitigation often gets less priority in comparison to other socio-economic objectives. This paper proposes a set of principles and specific mechanisms that can link climate change and inequality within a single policy framework. First, we highlight the need to modify the global emission monitoring system for the sake of accounting for emissions from consumption (rather than production) by income groups. Second, we suggest the introduction of a new redistribution system to address climate change which would include the imposition of a “fine” on households with the highest levels of emissions. Such a system follows the principles of progressive taxation but supports climate mitigation objectives and should be understood not as taxation of high incomes but rather as payment for a negative externality. Third, we outline the need to adjust climate finance criteria; priority should be given to projects designed to reduce carbon-intensive consumption by social groups entering the middle class, or to help the poorest population groups adapt to climate change. A special role in the implementation of these principles may belong to BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), which may view this as an opportunity for a proactive transition to inclusive, low-carbon development. |
| Keywords: | climate change; inequality; energy consumption; greenhouse gas emissions; sustainable development |
| JEL: | Q56 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102346&r=all |
| By: | Donatella Baiardi (Università di Parma); Simona Scabrosetti (Università di Pavia and Dondena Università Bocconi) |
| Abstract: | We empirically investigate the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) focusing on a sample of 39 countries in the period 1996-2014. Using an interaction model, we also analyze whether the effectiveness of environmental taxes in reducing CO2 emissions depends on the quality of political institutions. Our results show that the inverted U-shaped relationship between environmental stress and economic development holds independently of the quality of political institu- tions and environment related taxes. Moreover, an increase in the environmental tax revenue has the expected reducing effect on environmental degradation only in countries with more consolidated democratic institutions, higher civil society par- ticipation and less corrupt governments. Our findings also show that the effects on environmental stress of revenue neutral shifts to different tax sources depend not only on the quality of political institutions, but also on the kind of externality the policymaker aims at correcting. |
| Keywords: | environmental tax revenue, environmental tax mix, environmental Kuznets Curve, CO2 emissions. |
| JEL: | H23 P16 Q50 Q53 Q38 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipu:wpaper:92&r=all |
| By: | Jean-Bernard Chatelain (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Kirsten Ralf (Ecole Supérieure du Commerce Extérieur - ESCE - International business school) |
| Abstract: | A policy target (for example inflation) may depend on the persistent component of exogenous shocks, such as the cost-push shock of oil, energy or imported prices. The larger the persistence of these exogenous shocks, the larger the welfare losses and the larger the response of policy instrument to this exogenous shock in a feedback rule, in order to decrease the sensitivity of the policy target to this shock. |
| Keywords: | Core inflation,Imported inflation,Optimal Policy,Welfare,Policy rule |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-02919697&r=all |
| By: | David Deller (Centre for Competition Policy, University of East Anglia); Catherine Waddams Price (Centre for Competition Policy and Norwich Business School, University of East Anglia) |
| Abstract: | The retail energy market in the UK is highly politicised and since the turn of the millennium successive governments have pursued significant policies designed to ease the affordability of energy for certain groups. One of these policies, namely Winter Fuel Payments, represent both a significant increase in resources targeted at affordability support and a shift in emphasis from those on low incomes towards the elderly. This paper tracks the proportion of household expenditure devoted to energy between 1992 and 2014, implementing a major new correction to energy expenditure for households with prepayment meters, who tend to be low income households. First, the time series is used to argue that the political salience of distributional concerns in the retail energy market should not come as a surprise. Second, we find that while households with a head aged over 80 have elevated energy expenditure shares (similar to households at the bottom of the income distribution), pensioners aged 65-70 have energy expenditure shares comparable to households at the middle of the income distribution. Third, mapping major policy developments against the time series shows the most generous and ambitious affordability support schemes were introduced when energy was nearing its most affordable over a 35-year period, suggesting political considerations influenced both the recipients of support and the timing of interventions. |
| Date: | 2018–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uea:ueaccp:2018_08&r=all |
| By: | Li, Lei; Löschel, Andreas; Pei, Jiansuo; Sturm, Bodo; Yu, Anqi |
| Abstract: | Is trade liberalization contributing to cleaner production amongst manufacturing firms? Theoretical predictions and empirical evidences are mixed. This study utilizes China's dual trade regime and China's WTO entry in 2001 to construct a unique micro dataset on manufacturing firms for China for the period 2000-2007, and performs a difference-in-difference estimation strategy to directly examine this issue. Specifically, normal exporters that saw tariff changes during the same period form the treatment group; while processing exporters that enjoy tariff-exemptions both pre- and post-WTO entry serve as the control group. Results show that China's WTO entry contributed to a lower SO2 emission intensity for normal exporting firms. We further examine the mechanism and show that the productivity channel accounted for the observed pattern. Specifically, more efficient normal exporters saw greater decline of SO2 emission intensity than average normal exporters. This study contributes to a better understanding of the impact of trade on the environment, especially in developing countries. It also complements the literature in terms of providing China's micro evidence on the impact of trade liberalization on firm's environmental performance. |
| Keywords: | WTO,trade liberalization,dual trade regime,SO2 emission intensity,China |
| JEL: | F18 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cawmdp:119&r=all |
| By: | D'Orazio, Paola; Dirks, Maximilian W. |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of climate-related fiscal and financial policies on CO2 emissions implemented by G20 countries in the period 2000-2017. The analysis show that the impact of various policy instruments is heterogeneous across the carbon emissions distribution. In particular, the effect of a green investment bank is significant across all percentiles and contributes to improving environmental quality. Moreover, our findings suggest that what matters is not the financial sector size per se or the amount of credit devoted to the private sector, but rather the type of finance. This suggests that policymakers and researchers should devote more effort to calibrate their policy instruments and develop an efficient policy mix to achieve climate change mitigation, especially in countries with high carbon emissions. |
| Keywords: | mitigation strategies,financial regulation,green investment banks,carbon dioxide emissions,climate risks,green financey |
| JEL: | E58 E62 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:860&r=all |
| By: | Grzegorz Marcjasz; Jesus Lago; Rafa{\l} Weron |
| Abstract: | Recent advancements in the fields of artificial intelligence and machine learning methods resulted in a significant increase of their popularity in the literature, including electricity price forecasting. Said methods cover a very broad spectrum, from decision trees, through random forests to various artificial neural network models and hybrid approaches. In electricity price forecasting, neural networks are the most popular machine learning method as they provide a non-linear counterpart for well-tested linear regression models. Their application, however, is not straightforward, with multiple implementation factors to consider. One of such factors is the network's structure. This paper provides a comprehensive comparison of two most common structures when using the deep neural networks -- one that focuses on each hour of the day separately, and one that reflects the daily auction structure and models vectors of the prices. The results show a significant accuracy advantage of using the latter, confirmed on data from five distinct power exchanges. |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2008.08006&r=all |
| By: | Xin Sheng (Lord Ashcroft International Business School, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, CM1 1SQ, United Kingdom); Hardik A. Marfatia (Department of Economics, Northeastern Illinois University, 5500 N St Louis Ave, BBH 344G, Chicago, IL 60625, USA); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Qiang Ji (Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of disentangled oil shocks on the synchronization in housing price movements across all the US states plus DC. Using a Bayesian dynamic factor model, the house price movements are decomposed into national, regional, and state-specific factors. We then study the impact of oil-specific supply and demand, inventory accumulation, and global demand shocks on the national factor using linear and nonlinear local projection methods. The impulse response analyses suggest that oil-specific supply and consumption demand shocks are most important in driving the national factor. Moreover, as observed from the regime-specific local projection model, these two shocks are found to have a relatively stronger impact in a bearish rather than a bullish national housing market. Our results have important policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian dynamic factor model, Housing market synchronization, Local projection method, Structural oil shocks |
| JEL: | C22 C32 E32 Q02 R30 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202076&r=all |
| By: | Maarten J. Punt (Circular Economy and Social Entrepreneurship, Windesheim Honours College, Windesheim, The Netherlands); Brooks A. Kaiser (Department of Sociology, Environmental and Business Economics, University of Southern Denmark) |
| Abstract: | Seismic surveys can increase hydrocarbon deposit information, lowering subsequent expected costs of hydrocarbon exploration. Survey noise, however, can interfere with marine mammals and fishes, reducing fitness. Ice-covered Arctic waters temporally constrain both surveying and marine mammal species; damage mitigation requires temporal and spatial planning. The survey noise externality is stronger than that for drilling (Erbe, 2012); there is additional cost to marine species’ habitat versus drilling alone. We develop a spatially explicit bio-economic and Value-of-Information (VOI) model examining these tradeoffs and illustrate it for oil exploration decisions off the Western Greenlandic coast. We use cost-effectiveness to identify implicit thresholds for sound habitat quality conservation as a function of regulatory choices that have different impacts under different assumptions about the relative spatial values of marine mammal habitat maintenance. |
| Keywords: | Value of Information (VOI); seismic surveys; marine mammals; marine habitat; marine noise pollution; hydrocarbon exploration;Arctic oil and gas exploration; evaluation of regulatory programs; spatial bio-economic modelling |
| JEL: | D83 Q35 Q53 Q57 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sdk:wpaper:sebe2&r=all |
| By: | Adejumo, Akintoye; Asongu, Simplice |
| Abstract: | Globally, investments in physical and human capital have been identified to foster real economic growth and development in any economy. Investments, which could be domestic or foreign, have been established in the literature as either complements or substitutes in varying scenarios. While domestic investments bring about endogenous growth processes, foreign investment, though may be exogenous to growth, has been identified to bring about productivity and ecological spillovers. In view of these competing–conflicting perspectives, this chapter examines the differential impacts of domestic and foreign investments on green growth in Nigeria during the period 1970-2017. The empirical evidence is based on Auto-regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Granger causality estimates. Also, the study articulates the prospects for growth sustainability via domestic or foreign investments in Nigeria. The results show that domestic investment increases CO2 emissions in the short run while foreign investment decreases CO2 emissions in the long run. When the dataset is decomposed into three sub-samples in the light of cycles of investments within the trend analysis, findings of the third sub-sample (i.e. 2001-2017) reveal that both types of investments decrease CO2 emissions in the long run while only domestic investment has a negative effect on CO2 emissions in the short run. This study therefore concludes that as short-run distortions even out in the long-run, FDI and domestic investments has prospects for sustainable development in Nigeria through green growth. |
| Keywords: | Investments; Productivity; Sustainability; Growth |
| JEL: | E23 F21 F30 O16 O55 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:101924&r=all |
| By: | Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez (Banco de la República de Colombia); José Antonio Ocampo (Banco de la República de Colombia) |
| Abstract: | It is increasingly recognized that climate change generates major macroeconomic and financial risks. There are physical risks associated to the disasters generated by hydrometeorological events and to gradual but persistent changes in temperatures that have structural impacts on economic activity, productivity and incomes. Additionally, the process of adjustment towards a lower-carbon economy, prompted by changes in climate-related policies, technological disruptions and changes in consumer preferences, generates transition risks. After a brief analysis of the macroeconomic, fiscal and tax policies to manage these risks, this paper concentrates on: (i) how financial policies can help improve transparency and climate-related risk disclosure in financial institutions’ balance sheets and assets prices, particularly with appropriate prudential regulation and supervision; and (ii) how those risks could be taken into account in monetary policy and central banks’ balance sheets and operations. The paper ends with some reflections on the Covid-19 pandemic and the will for a “green” recovery. **** ABSTRACT: Cada vez se reconoce con mayor claridad que el cambio climático genera importantes riesgos macroeconómicos y financieros. Existen riesgos físicos asociados a los desastres generados por eventos hidrometeorológicos y a cambios graduales pero persistentes en las temperaturas que tienen un impacto estructural en la actividad económica, la productividad y los ingresos. Además, el proceso de ajuste hacia una economía con bajas emisiones de carbono, inducido por cambios en las políticas relacionadas con el clima, cambios tecnológicos y cambios en las preferencias de los consumidores, genera riesgos de transición. Después de un breve análisis de las políticas macroeconómicas, fiscales y fiscales para gestionar estos riesgos, este documento se concentra en: (i) la forma como las políticas financieras pueden ayudar a mejorar la transparencia y la información de los riesgos relacionados con el clima en los balances de las instituciones financieras y los precios de los activos, particularmente con una política de regulación y supervisión prudencial apropiada; y (ii) cómo se podrían tener en cuenta esos riesgos en la política monetaria y en los balances y operaciones de los bancos centrales. El artículo termina con algunas reflexiones sobre la pandemia de Covid-19 y la voluntad de una recuperación “verde”. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, carbon tax, financial policy, monetary policy, central Banks, cambio climático, impuesto al carbono, política financiera, política monetaria, bancos centrales. |
| JEL: | E50 G18 H23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1127&r=all |
| By: | Börjesson, Maria (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Bastian, Anne (City of Stockholm); Eliasson, Jonas (Linköping University) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides two micro-economic models that derive the social cost of a low emission zone (LEZ) for light vehicles. We apply the models to a proposed LEZ for light vehicles in Stockholm, which would prohibit diesel cars of Euro 5 or lower and gasoline cars of Euro 4 or lower in the inner city (25 km2 ). The first model is based on how an increase in user cost impacts traffic volumes in the inner city. This rather conventional user cost calculation of drivers’ loss requires however some strong assumptions. The second model shows that drivers’ losses can be calculated based on price changes observed on the used car market. Our empirical results indicate that the second model yields a twice as large welfare loss as the first. The forecasted benefits of the LEZ consist primarily of air quality improvements leading to health benefits. The empirical results must be interpreted with caution, but we find that the social benefit of air quality improvements is less than a tenth of the social cost. |
| Keywords: | Dieselgate; Low emission zones; Environmental zones; Cost-benefit analysis; Car market |
| JEL: | D61 H54 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2020–08–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2020_007&r=all |
| By: | L. (Lisa B.) Ryan; Ivan Petrov |
| Abstract: | This paper utilises a difference-in-differences model to study the impact of a vehicle tax reform on purchasing choices over a period of 10 years. In line with many other European countries, on the 1st of July 2008 the motor taxation regime in the Republic of Ireland was reformed to try and stem rising CO2 emissions from the passenger car fleet. To achieve this, both vehicle purchase and circulation taxes switched from an engine capacity basis to a CO2 emissions rating per kilometre basis. The aim of this study is to quantify the effectiveness of this (and subsequent) vehicle policy changes at achieving this goal. Using a difference in differences quasi-experimental design, we attempt to recreate the missing counterfactual (in the absence of the policy change(s)) of vehicle purchasing patterns in Ireland using the trend in UK new passenger car emissions over the same period. The findings suggest that the initial taxation policy change reduced average rated CO2 emissions from new passenger cars by between 8 to 11 g CO2/km. Some subsequent policy changes, such as the introduction of a scrappage scheme in 2010 also had an impact at stimulating the purchase of lower-emitting vehicles. This effect however was achieved by a substantial switch towards diesel powered vehicles, with other consequences for the environment, and a significant drop in tax revenue for the exchequer. |
| Keywords: | Vehicle taxes; Externalities; Difference-in-differences models; Passenger cars; CO2 emissions |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:oapubs:10197/11466&r=all |
| By: | Seeley, Brien A. MD.; Rakas, Jasenka PhD |
| Abstract: | UC Berkeley has long been known as the home of important societal movements. In early October 2019, the electric aircraft movement came to UC Berkeley (UCB) courtesy of UCB’s Institute for Transportation Studies (ITS) and the College of Engineering. At what some have called the “Woodstock of Aviation”—the Sustainable Aviation Symposium (SAS) convened leaders of that movement from across the globe for two full days in UC’s Pauley Ballroom to explore how to solve important societal-enviro-economic issues in transportation with breakthroughs and innovations in high-tech physics, chemistry and electrical engineering. Beyond Science, Technology, Engineering, Art and Mathematics (STEAM) topics, the faculty presentations spanned a broad spectrum of UC’s graduate and undergraduate curriculum and included those by prominent UC faculty members, professors from other universities, leaders from NASA as well as several by experts in private industry. SAS 2019 was unique among conferences in focusing on how the future driverless, emission-free sky taxis of urban air mobility (UAM) could affordably transform transportation and neighborhoods at scale in metro regions and beyond. The socio-enviro-economic prospects for that transformation’s potential for regional mass transit by air that could ease surface gridlock, untenable infrastructure costs and climate change, showed why SAS 2019 engaged for the first time the disciplines of urban and environmental planning and civil engineering. SAS 2019 resulted in a growing awareness of the pan-topic relevance of UAM and justified both the continuation of SAS at UC Berkeley as well as further activities of the Aviation Futures Lab at UCB. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2020–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt4t76186k&r=all |
| By: | Roland Broll; Gerald Blumberg; Christoph Weber (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen (Campus Essen)) |
| Abstract: | The ongoing transformation process towards a low or even zero emission energy system is facing a steadily increasing complexity, notably through variable renewable energies and sector coupling. At the same time, the necessity for long-term decisions associated with high capital costs remains. Hence methods are desirable that help decision makers to manage the broad range of possible futures without overly simplifying the interplay of multiple developments in many societal, technological, and economic fields. This requires the inclusion of expert knowledge from different domains without putting an excessive workload on these experts. The paper at hand proposes an efficient two stage approach to derive a limited set of scenarios. In the first step, the focus is on establishing the key causal relationships and derive the key exogenous drivers for future developments. In the second step, their interdependency is then assessed in more detail and consistent scenarios are derived. The approach builds on two existing methods, the ADVanced Impact ANalysis (ADVIAN) and the Cross impact balances analysis (CIB), yet these are refined and tailored both in terms of improved computation approaches and advanced assessment indicators. The newly developed approach is applied to the case of network extension planning as this is characterized by both significant complexity increases and longterm investment decisions under high uncertainty. Starting with many potential driving factors, just a few key exogenous drivers are identified and four consistent scenarios up to the year 2050 are derived with a limited amount of expert assessment workload. The methodology enables thus the development of consistent socio techno economic scenarios that may also serve as framework for more detailed model-based assessments of energy system developments. |
| Keywords: | energy scenarios, cross impact matrix, indirect and direct impacts,scenario-reduction, consistent scenarios |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dui:wpaper:2005&r=all |
| By: | Henningsen, Geraldine; Wiese, Catharina |
| Abstract: | Most environmental policies that aim to encourage households to invest in more climate- friendly technologies and retrofits, e.g., solar panels, electric cars, or attic insulation, are broadly targeted and do not take households’ individual investment behaviour into account. Scholars have, therefore, emphasised the need to account for household heterogeneity in policy design in order to ensure effective and efficient policy outcomes. However, such a policy design requires the existence of easily accessible household characteristics, which can reliably and consistently explain households’ investment behaviour in a variety of investment scenarios. Using the vast empirical literature on the determinants of households’ investments in energy-efficient home improvements as a case study, we conduct a meta-analysis to (i) determine the magnitude of the effects of easily accessible household characteristics, and; (ii) test the stability of these effects under a variety of circumstances. We integrate the empirical results from 63 publications that investigate the impact of socio-economic characteristics on households’ energy-efficiency investments and examine potential model- and sample-specific factors to explain the variation in the estimated effects. Our findings for the household characteristics: income, age, education, household size, and homeownership, show that significant effects only exist for some of these characteristics, with income and homeownership showing the greatest impact. Furthermore, the results confirm a strong situational component in the effect of these household characteristics on households’ investment decisions, which challenges the practicality of tailored policy design. |
| Keywords: | Household heterogeneity, Environmental policy, Climate, Meta analysis |
| JEL: | D10 D11 D12 Q40 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:101701&r=all |
| By: | Arezki,Rabah; Djankov,Simeon; Nguyen,Ha Minh; Yotzov,Ivan Victorov |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the effect of oil shocks on electoral outcomes. Using a new polling and election data set for 207 elections across 50 democracies, the paper shows that oil price increases systematically lower the odds of reelection for incumbents. The analysis verifies that these shocks -- which reduce consumption growth -- are associated with worsening performance for incumbents in the runup to reelection and a reversal in the leaning of the political party in power post-election. |
| Keywords: | International Trade and Trade Rules,Natural Disasters,Primary Metals,Employment and Unemployment,Inflation |
| Date: | 2020–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9287&r=all |
| By: | H. Spencer Banzhaf |
| Abstract: | The standard history of modern environmental economics often views it as an application of A.C. Pigou's theory of externalities, refined over the decades and applied to environmental problems in the 1960s, when the first detailed pro-posals for pricing pollution were outlined by Allen Kneese, Thomas Crocker, John Dales, and others. However, the historical literature has noted problems with this narrative, including a 30-year gap in discussions of such applications and few actual citations to Pigou. This paper offers a simple explanation for this puzzle: Namely, pollution pricing is not (necessarily) Pigouvian. It argues that the early applied literature on the topic was rooted more in questions about common property resources and increasing returns from developing natural re-sources. Both topics were treated by broad literatures by the 1960s, including distinctly American traditions not particularly associated with Pigou. |
| JEL: | B2 H23 Q2 Q5 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27683&r=all |
| By: | Alberini,Anna; Steinbuks,Jevgenijs; Timilsina,Govinda R. |
| Abstract: | This study uses a contingent valuation approach to value the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for improved service experienced by households in Nepal following the end of the country's load-shedding crisis of 2008-2016. Using a detailed survey of grid-connected Nepali households, the authors calculate the WTP per outage-day avoided and the residential value of lost (VoLL) and analyze their key drivers. Households are willing to pay, on average, 123.32 NR ($1.11) per month, or 65 percent of the actual average monthly bill for improved quality of power supply. The preferred estimates of the VoLL are in the range of 5 to 15 NR/kWh (¢4.7-¢14/kWh). These estimates are below the marginal cost of avoided load shedding, and virtually the same as valuations at the beginning of the load-shedding crisis. |
| Date: | 2020–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9311&r=all |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Odhiambo, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | This study assesses whether improving governance standards affects environmental quality in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 2000-2012. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments. Bundled and unbundled governance dynamics are used notably: (i) political governance (consisting of political stability and “voice & accountability”); (ii) economic governance (entailing government effectiveness and regulation quality), (iii) institutional governance (represented by the rule of law and corruption-control) and (iv) general governance (encompassing political, economic and institutional governance dynamics). The following hypotheses are tested: (i) Hypothesis 1 (Improving political governance is negatively related to CO2 emissions); (ii) Hypothesis 2 (Increasing economic governance is negatively related to CO2 emissions) and (iii) Hypothesis 3 (Enhancing institutional governance is negatively related to CO2 emissions. Results of the tested hypotheses show that: the validity of Hypothesis 3 cannot be determined based on the results; Hypothesis 2 is not valid while Hypothesis 1 is partially not valid. The main policy implication is that governance standards need to be further improved in order for government quality to generate the expected unfavorable effects on CO2 emissions. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions; Governance; Economic development; Sustainable development; Africa |
| JEL: | C52 O38 O40 O55 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102035&r=all |
| By: | Joseph E. Aldy; Matthew Kotchen; Mary F. Evans; Meredith Fowlie; Arik Levinson; Karen Palmer |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the treatment of co-benefits in benefit-cost analysis of federal air quality regulations. Using a comprehensive data set on all major Clean Air Act rules issued by the Environmental Protection Agency over the period 1997-2019, we show that (1) co-benefits make up a significant share of the monetized benefits; (2) among the categories of co-benefits, those associated with reductions in fine particulate matter are the most significant; and (3) co-benefits have been pivotal to the quantified net benefit calculation in exactly half of cases. Motivated by these trends, we develop a simple conceptual framework that illustrates a critical point: co-benefits are simply a semantic category of benefits that should be included in benefit-cost analyses. We also address common concerns about whether the inclusion of co-benefits is problematic because of alternative regulatory approaches that may be more cost-effective and the possibility for double counting. |
| JEL: | D61 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27603&r=all |
| By: | Jesus Lago; Grzegorz Marcjasz; Bart De Schutter; Rafa{\l} Weron |
| Abstract: | While the field of electricity price forecasting has benefited from plenty of contributions in the last two decades, it arguably lacks a rigorous approach to evaluating new predictive algorithms. The latter are often compared using unique, not publicly available datasets and across too short and limited to one market test samples. The proposed new methods are rarely benchmarked against well established and well performing simpler models, the accuracy metrics are sometimes inadequate and testing the significance of differences in predictive performance is seldom conducted. Consequently, it is not clear which methods perform well nor what are the best practices when forecasting electricity prices. In this paper, we tackle these issues by performing a literature survey of state-of-the-art models, comparing state-of-the-art statistical and deep learning methods across multiple years and markets, and by putting forward a set of best practices. In addition, we make available the considered datasets, forecasts of the state-of-the-art models, and a specifically designed python toolbox, so that new algorithms can be rigorously evaluated in future studies. |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2008.08004&r=all |
| By: | Pascal Grouiez (LADYSS - Laboratoire Dynamiques Sociales et Recomposition des Espaces - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - UPD7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UP - Université de Paris); Alexandre Berthe (LIRIS - Laboratoire interdisciplinaire de recherche en innovations sociétales - UR2 - Université de Rennes 2 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes); Mathilde Fautras (LADYSS - Laboratoire Dynamiques Sociales et Recomposition des Espaces - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris, UP - Université de Paris); Sabina Issehnane (LIED (UMR_8236) - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Energies de Demain - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP - Université de Paris, UP - Université de Paris) |
| Abstract: | With more than 700 biogas plants, the "biomass-energy" industry has been structured in France over the last ten years with the support of public policies, based on a variety of economic models for biogas plants. 53 semi-structured interviews with farmers in the Grand Est, Ile-de-France and New Aquitaine regions and 40 interviews with institutional stakeholders have been led, that allowed to identifiy four income strategies implemented by farmers that are all economic models of biogas production. This result makes it possible to investigate the future of the on-farm biogas plants in the context of the ongoing reconfiguration of the industry and in particular the emergence of industrial biogas plants. On the strength of a prospective analysis, the report highlights the risk of an homogenisation of on-farm biogas plants, which increasing in power-size could eventually lead to a switch of the industry to an industrial (non-agricultural) model in which farmers would be simple suppliers of substrates to be methanised. |
| Abstract: | Comptant aujourd'hui plus de 700 unités de méthanisation agricoles, la filière "biomasse-énergie" se structure en France depuis une dizaine d'années à la faveur du soutien des politiques publiques, en s'appuyant sur une diversité de modèles économiques des méthaniseurs. Ce rapport identifie quatre stratégies de revenu mises en place par les agriculteurs qui sont autant de modèles économiques d'unités de méthanisation en s'appuyant sur 53 entretiens semi-directifs menés auprès d'agriculteurs du Grand-Est, de l'Ile-de-France et de la Nouvelle Aquitaine et 40 entretiens conduits auprès d'acteurs institutionnels. Ce résultat permet de questionner le devenir des différents modèles d'unité de méthanisation agricole dans le contexte de reconfiguration en cours de la filière et notamment de l'émergence d'unités de méthanisation industrielles. Sur la base d'une analyse prospective, le rapport met en évidence le risque d'une homogénéisation des unités de méthanisation agricoles. Ces dernières augmentant en taille, elles pourraient à termes conduire au basculement des unités de méthanisation vers un modèle industriel (non-agricole) dans lequel les agriculteurs seraient de simples apporteurs de substrats à méthaniser. |
| Keywords: | Biogas production,On-farm biogas Plant,Farm-scale biogas plant,Bioeconomy,Green Energy,Industrial Policy,Ecological Transition,Global value chain,Unité agricole de méthanisation,Bioéconomy,Transition écologique,Mix energétique,Filière |
| Date: | 2020–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02886217&r=all |
| By: | Carlo Fezzi; Valeria Fanghella |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 8 million confirmed cases and 500,000 death to date. In response to this emergency, many countries have introduced a series of social-distancing measures including lockdowns and businesses' temporary shutdowns, in an attempt to curb the spread of the infection. Accordingly, the pandemic has been generating unprecedent disruption on practically every aspect of society. This paper demonstrates that high-frequency electricity market data can be used to estimate the causal, short-run impact of COVID-19 on the economy. In the current uncertain economic conditions, timeliness is essential. Unlike official statistics, which are published with a delay of a few months, with our approach one can monitor virtually every day the impact of the containment policies, the extent of the recession and measure whether the monetary and fiscal stimuli introduced to address the crisis are being effective. We illustrate our methodology on daily data for the Italian day-ahead power market. Not surprisingly, we find that the containment measures caused a significant reduction in economic activities and that the GDP at the end of in May 2020 is still about 11% lower that what it would have been without the outbreak. |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2007.03477&r=all |
| By: | Adrien Fabre (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Bénédicte Apouey (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thomas Douenne (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Jean-François Laslier (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Antonin Macé (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Les citoyens membres de la Convention Citoyenne pour le Climat (CCC) sont-ils représentatifs des Français ? Ces derniers approuvent-ils les politiques climatiques proposées par la Convention ? Cette note aborde ces questions en comparant les points de vue des citoyens de la Convention avec ceux d'échantillons représentatifs de la population générale interrogés avant que les mesures proposées par la CCC soient diffusées publiquement. |
| Keywords: | Convention Citoyenne pour le Climat,CCC |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-02919695&r=all |