nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2020‒08‒17
forty-six papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Export Competitiveness - Fuel Price Nexus in Developing Countries: Real or False Concern? By Kangni R Kpodar; Stefania Fabrizio; Kodjovi M. Eklou
  2. On capital utilization in the hydrogen economy: The quest to minimize idle capacity in renewables-rich energy systems By Cloete, Schalk; Ruhnau, Oliver; Hirth, Lion
  3. Environmental Consequence of Transportation Sector for USA: The Validation of Transportation Kuznets Curve By Shahbaz, Muhammad; Abosedra, Salah; Kumar, Mantu; Abbas, Qaisar
  4. Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on global fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions By L. Vanessa Smith; Nori Tarui; Takashi Yamagata
  5. Electric Fleet Adoption Strategies – Addressing Storage and Infrastructure Needs By Raju, Arun; Vu, Alexander
  6. The criticality of growth, urbanization, electricity and fossil fuel consumption to environment sustainability in Africa By Asongu, Simplice; Agboola, Mary; Alola, Andrew; Bekun, Festus
  7. Discounting and Climate Policy By Rick van der Ploeg
  8. Disaggregate Consumption Feedback and Energy Conservation By Andreas Gerster; Mark A. Andor; Lorenz Götte
  9. Mapping Fuel Poverty Risk at the Municipal Level: A Small-Scale Analysis of Italian Energy Performance Certificate, Census and Survey Data By Riccardo Camboni; Alberto Corsini; Raffaele Miniaci; Paola Valbonesi
  10. Impact of Energy Consumption on Industrial Growth in a Transition Economy: Evidence from Nigeria By Kassim, Fatima; Isik, Abdurrahman
  11. Measuring Switching Costs in the Italian Residential Electricity Market By Marco Magnani; Fabio M. Manenti; Paola Valbonesi
  12. Renewable Energy Consumptionand Economic Growth: a note reassessing panel data results By Regina Maria Marques da Fonseca Pereira; Tiago Miguel Guterres Neves Sequeira; Pedro André Ribeiro Madeira Cunha Cerqueira
  13. Recycling under environmental, climate and resource constraints By Lafforgue, Gilles; Lorang, Etienne
  14. Social Learning and Solar Photovoltaic Adoption By Kenneth Gillingham; Bryan Bollinger
  15. Climate Regulation and Emissions Abatement: Theory and Evidence from Firms' Disclosures By Ramadorai, Tarun; Zeni, Federica
  16. The association between the carbon footprint and the socio-economic characteristics of Belgian households By Petra Zsuzsa Lévay; Josefine Vanhille; Tim Goedemé; Gerlinde Verbist
  17. Cooperate or Compete? Insights from Simulating a Global Oil Market with No Residual Supplier By Bertrand Rioux; Abdullah AlJarboua; Fatih Karanfil; Axel Pierru; Shahd Alrashed; Colin Ward
  18. Congestion Tolls Efficiently Reduce CO2 Emissions from Homes in addition to Urban Transportation in the Long Run By Domon, Shohei; Hirota, Mayu; Kono, Tatsuhito; Managi, Shunsuke; Matsuki, Yusuke
  19. How do you feel about going green? By Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández; Alessia Cafferata; Serena Sordi
  20. Energy Price Reform in Saudi Arabia: Modeling the Economic and Environmental Impact and Understanding the Demand Response By Mohammad Al Dubyan; Anwar Gasim
  21. Pay cycles and fuel price: a quasi experimental approach By Bergantino, Angela Stefania; Intini, Mario; Perdiguero, Jordi
  22. Intra-African Trade By William W. Olney
  23. Road Transport Energy Consumption and Vehicular Emissions in Lagos, Nigeria By Monica Maduekwe; Uduak Akpan; Salisu Isihak
  24. Grounded reality meets machine learning: A deep-narrative analysis framework for energy policy research By Debnath, R.; Darby, S.; Bardhan, R.; Mohaddes, K.; Sunikka-Blank, M.
  25. Trade liberalization and SO2 emissions: Firm-level evidence from China's WTO entry By Li, Lei; Löschel, Andreas; Pei, Jiansuo; Sturm, Bodo; Yu, Anqi
  26. Oil Shocks and Total Factor Productivity in Resource-Poor Economies: The Cases of France and Germany By Azam, Jean-Paul
  27. Can the World Get Along Without Natural Resources? By Fix, Blair
  28. Are the Poor Better Off with Public or Private Utilities ?A Survey of the Academic Evidence on Developing Economies By Lisa Bagnoli; Salvador Bertomeu; Antonio Estache; Maria Vagliasindi
  29. The perception of climate sensitivity: Revealing priors from posteriors By Masako Ikefuji; Jan R. Magnus
  30. Elektromobilität 2035 - ein regionaler Blick : Effekte auf Wirtschaft und Erwerbstätigkeit durch die Elektrifizierung des Antriebsstrangs von Personenkraftwagen aus regionaler Perspektive By Mönnig, Anke; Schneemann, Christian; Weber, Enzo; Zika, Gerd; Helmrich, Robert; Bernardt, Florian
  31. Experiencing Pilot Demonstrations Helps Individual Acceptance of Self-Driving Shuttles By Xing, Yan; Handy, Susan; Circella, Giovanni; Wang, Yunshi; Alemi, Farzad
  32. Negative income shocks and the support of environmental policies: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic By Löschel, Andreas; Price, Michael; Razzolini, Laura; Werthschulte, Madeline
  33. Subjective risk belief function in the field: Evidence from cooking fuel choices and health in India By Hide-Fumi Yokoo; Toshi H. Arimura; Mriduchhanda Chattopadhyay; Hajime Katayama
  34. Dynamic dependence and extreme risk comovement: The case of oil prices and exchange rates By Ji, Qiang; Liu, Bing-Yue; Nguyen, Duc Khuong; Fan, Ying
  35. Environmental Policy with Green Consumerism By Ambec, Stefan; De Donder, Philippe
  36. Electric Street Car as a Clean Public Transport Alternative: A Choice Experiment Approach By Dey, Oindrila; Chakravarty, Debalina
  37. Pollution and Labor Market Search Externalities Over the Business Cycle By John Gibson; Garth Heutel
  38. Capacity-constrained renewable power generation development in light of storage cost uncertainty By Fitiwi, Desta; Lynch, Muireann Á.; Bertsch, Valentin
  39. Gold and Oil Prices: Abnormal Returns, Momentum and Contrarian Effects By Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Alex Plastun
  40. A Leadership Curse? Oil Price Shocks and the Selection of National Leaders By Kodjovi M. Eklou
  41. Measuring Energy-saving Technological Change: International Trends and Differences By Emiko Inoue; Hiroya Taniguchi; Ken Yamada
  42. COVID-19, the oil price slump and food security in low-income countries By Heigermoser, Maximilian; Glauben, Thomas
  43. Understanding the Heterogeneity of Covid-19 Deaths and Contagions: The Role of Air Pollution and Lockdown Decisions. By Becchetti, Leonardo; Conzo, Gianluigi; Conzo, Pierluigi; Salustri, Francesco
  44. Locating pressures on water, energy and land resources across global supply chains By Taherzadeh, Oliver
  45. Caracterización de uso de la bicicleta como modo de transporte urbano en Cartagena con información de aplicaciones tecnológicas móviles By Carlos Felipe Pardo; Lina Marcela Quiñones
  46. The role of low temperature waste heat recovery in achieving 2050 goals: a policy positioning paper By Wheatcroft, Edward; Wynn, Henry P.; Lygnerud, Kristina; Bonvicini, Giorgio; Bonvicini, Giorgio; Lenote, Daniela

  1. By: Kangni R Kpodar; Stefania Fabrizio; Kodjovi M. Eklou
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of domestic fuel price increases on export growth in a sample of 77 developing countries over the period 2000-2014. Using a fixed-effect estimator and the local projection approach, we find that an increase in domestic gasoline or diesel price adversely affects real non-fuel export growth, but only in the short run as the impact phases out within two years after the shock. The results also suggest that the negative effect of fuel price increase on exports is mainly noticeable in countries with a high-energy dependency ratio and countries where access to an alternative source of energy, such as electricity, is constrained, thus preventing producers from altering energy consumption mix in response to fuel price changes.
    Keywords: Export competitiveness;Export growth;Oil subsidies;Energy prices;Demand elasticity;Developing countries;Retail fuel prices,Fuel Subsidies,Export growth,Developing countries.,fuel price increase,non-fuel,fuel price,price shock,energy price
    Date: 2019–02–04
  2. By: Cloete, Schalk; Ruhnau, Oliver; Hirth, Lion
    Abstract: The hydrogen economy is currently experiencing a surge in attention, partly due to the possibility of absorbing wind and solar energy production peaks through electrolysis. A fundamental challenge with this approach is low utilization rates of various parts of the integrated electricity-hydrogen system. To assess the importance of capacity utilization, this paper introduces a novel stylized numerical energy system model incorporating the major elements of electricity and hydrogen generation, transmission and storage, including both "green" hydrogen from electrolysis and "blue" hydrogen from natural gas reforming with CO2 capture and storage (CCS). Balancing renewables with electrolysis results in low utilization of electrolyzers, hydrogen pipelines and storage infrastructure, or electricity transmission networks, depending on whether electrolyzers are co-located with wind farms or demand centers. Blue hydrogen scenarios face similar constraints. High renewable shares impose low utilization rates of CO2 capture, transport and storage infrastructure for conventional CCS, and of hydrogen transmission and storage infrastructure for a novel process (gas switching reforming) that enables flexible power and hydrogen production. In conclusion, both green and blue hydrogen can facilitate the integration of wind and solar energy, but the cost related to low capacity utilization erodes much of the expected economic benefit.
    Keywords: Hydrogen economy,Energy system model,Decarbonization,CO2 capture and storage,Variable renewable energy
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Shahbaz, Muhammad; Abosedra, Salah; Kumar, Mantu; Abbas, Qaisar
    Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between transportation infrastructure and CO2 emissions by incorporating business cycle, transportation energy consumption and oil prices in carbon emissions function for the U.S. economy using monthly data for the period of 2000M1-2017M12. We have applied ADF unit root test accommodating structural breaks in the series developed by Kim and Perron (2009). We have applied bounds testing approach to cointegration developed by Pesaran et al. (2001) to examine cointegration between the variables. The empirical results confirm the existence of cointegration relationship between the variables. Moreover, transportation infrastructure decreases carbon emissions. Business cycle impedes environmental quality by increasing carbon emissions. Transportation energy consumption is positively linked with transportation carbon emissions but oil prices decrease it. Inverted U-shaped Transportation Kuznets curve (TKC) is found between transportation infrastructure and carbon emissions. The relationship between business cycle and CO2 emissions is an inverted-U shaped validating the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). The causality analysis reveals the presence of feedback effect between transportation infrastructure and CO2 emissions. Similarly, economic activity causes carbon emissions and in resulting, carbon emissions cause business cycle i.e. bidirectional causality. These empirical findings show new policy directions for using transportation infrastructure as economic tool to achieve growth along with sustainable environment.
    Keywords: Transport Infrastructure, Business Cycle, Transport Energy, CO2 Emissions
    JEL: Q5
    Date: 2020–07–15
  4. By: L. Vanessa Smith; Nori Tarui; Takashi Yamagata
    Abstract: The shock to the global economy from COVID-19 is predicted to be faster and more severe than the 2008 global financial crisis and even the Great Depression. We assess its impact on global fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions over a two-year horizon. For this purpose we employ a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model, which captures complex spatial-temporal interdependencies across countries due to the spread of the virus and associated international propagation of economic impact. The model makes use of a unique quarterly data set of coal, natural gas, and oil consumption, output and exchange rates, including global fossil fuel prices for 32 major CO2 emitting countries. We produce forecasts of coal, natural gas and oil consumption, conditional on GDP growth scenarios based on alternative IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts that were made before and after the outbreak. We also simulate the effect of a relative price change in fossil fuels, due to carbon pricing in all countries in the sample, on consumption and output. Our results show that fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are expected to return to their pre-crisis levels, and even exceed them, within the two-year horizon despite the large reductions in the first quarter following the outbreak. Our forecasts anticipate more robust growth for emerging than for advanced economies. Recovery to the pre-crisis levels is expected even if another wave of pandemic occurs within a year. The results from our counterfactual carbon pricing scenario show that an increase in coal prices is expected to have a smaller impact on GDP than on fossil fuel consumption. Thus, the COVID-19 pandemic would not provide countries with a strong reason to delay climate change mitigation efforts.
    Date: 2020–06
  5. By: Raju, Arun; Vu, Alexander
    Abstract: Significant electrification of the transportation sector is necessary for the State to achieve several important greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction and renewable energy targets. The State’s electricity generation and transmission capabilities must increase in order to meet the demand generated by increasing levels of fleet electrification. The increased demand, combined with the Renewables Portfolio Standard (RPS) targets will require significantly increased energy storage capabilities that can accommodate demand while integrating renewable power sources into the grid. This project evaluated the mid to long-term energy storage needs of the electric grid for select fleet electrification scenarios. The analysis was conducted using Resolve, a power systems planning model, for RPS targets of 60% and 80% by 2030 and 2042 respectively. The results show that Electrical Energy Storage (EES) capacity requirements depend on a number of parameters, including Demand Response (DR), Electric Vehicle (EV) charging flexibility, and total EV population. The EES requirements for the 60% RPS scenarios range from 3.9 to 4.3 GW while for the 80% RPS scenarios, the range is from 18.5 to 20.4 GW. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Energy Storage Capacity, Electrification, Energy Storage
    Date: 2020–07–01
  6. By: Asongu, Simplice; Agboola, Mary; Alola, Andrew; Bekun, Festus
    Abstract: While most African economies are primarily sandwiched with the seemingly unsurmountable task of attaining consistent economic growth and unhindered energy supply, the enormous threat posed by environmental degradation has further complicated the economic and environmental sustainability drive. In this context, the present study examines the effect of economic growth, urbanization, electricity consumption, fossil fuel energy consumption, and total natural resources rent on pollutant emissions in Africa over the period 1980-2014. By employing selected African countries, the current study relies on the Kao and Pedroni cointegration tests to cointegration analysis, the Pesaran’s Panel Pooled Mean Group-Autoregressive distributive lag methodology (ARDL-PMG) for long run regression while Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) is employed for the detection of causality direction among the outlined variables. The study traces long run equilibrium relationships b-etween examined indicators. The ARDL-PMG results suggest a statistical positive relationship between pollutant emissions and urbanization, electricity consumption and non-renewable energy consumption. Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) Granger causality test lends support to the long-run regression results. Bi-directional causality is observed between pollutant emissions, electricity consumption, economic growth and pollutant emissions while a unidirectional causality is apparent between total natural resources rent and pollutant emissions. Based on these results, several policy implications for the African continent were suggested. (a) The need for a paradigm shift from fossil fuel sources to renewables is encouraged in the region (b) The need to embrace carbon storage and capturing techniques to decouple pollutant emissions from economic growth on the continent’s growth trajectory. Further policy insights are elucidated.
    Keywords: non- renewable energy consumption; electricity consumption; economic growth; panel econometrics; Africa
    JEL: C32 Q40 Q50
    Date: 2019–01
  7. By: Rick van der Ploeg
    Abstract: The social rate of discount is a crucial driver of the social cost of carbon (SCC), i.e. the expected present discounted value of marginal damages resulting from emitting one ton of carbon today. Policy makers should set carbon prices to the SCC using a carbon tax or a competitive permits market. The social discount rate is lower and the SCC higher if policy makers are more patient and if future generations are less affluent and policy makers care about intergenerational inequality. Uncertainty about the future rate of growth of the economy and emissions and the risk of macroeconomic disasters (tail risks) also depress the social discount rate and boost the SCC provided intergenerational inequality aversion is high. Various reasons (e.g. autocorrelation in the economic growth rate or the idea that a decreasing certainty-equivalent discount rate results from a discount rate with a distribution that is constant over time) are discussed for why the social discount rate is likely to decline over time. A declining social discount rate also emerges if account is taken from the relative price effects resulting from different growth rates for ecosystem services and of labour in efficiency units. The market-based asset pricing approach to carbon pricing is contrasted with a more ethical approach to policy making. Some suggestions for further research are offered.
    Keywords: cost-benefit analysis, climate policy, carbon pricing, social discount rate, term structure, Keynes-Ramsey rule, risk and uncertainty, disasters, expert opinions
    JEL: D81 D90 G12 H43 Q51 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2020
  8. By: Andreas Gerster; Mark A. Andor; Lorenz Götte
    Abstract: Novel information technologies hold the promise to improve decision making. In the context of smart metering, we investigate the impact of providing households with appliance-level electricity feedback. In a randomized controlled trial, we find that the provision of appliance-level feedback creates a conservation effect of an additional 5% relative to a group receiving standard (aggregate) feedback. These conservation effects are largely driven by reductions in electricity use of 10% to 15% during peak hours. Consumers with appliance-level feedback hold more accurate beliefs about the energy consumption of different appliances, consistent with the mechanism in our accompanying model. Our result suggests that conservation effects from a smart-meter rollout will be much larger if appliance-level feedback can be provided. Based on a sufficient statistics approach, we estimate that appliance-level feedback could raise consumer surplus by about 570 to 600 million Euro per annum for German households.
    Keywords: Randomized controlled trial, disaggregation, consumption feedback, energy conservation
    JEL: D12 D83 L94 Q41
    Date: 2020–06
  9. By: Riccardo Camboni (University of Padova, Italy; OIPE); Alberto Corsini (Université Côte d'Azur, France; CNRS, GREDEG; OIPE); Raffaele Miniaci (University of Brescia; OIPE); Paola Valbonesi (University of Padova, Italy; OIPE)
    Abstract: We use the nearest neighbour propensity score matching to link dwellings holding Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) in the Italian province of Treviso with information on the socio-economic characteristics of households most likely to inhabit them. We construct a database of 17,405 dwellings for which information on standardized energy needs is matched to data on (potential) inhabitants and their imputed income, based respectively on census records and survey data. Our analysis shows that EPC registers can be exploited to investigate how income and housing conditions affect fuel poverty and to identify municipal areas with higher fuel poverty risk. Our findings highlight that when designing interventions to reduce fuel poverty, policymakers should target households based not only on their income but also on type of heating fuel, and on efficiency and the size of their accommodation.
    Keywords: Fuel Poverty, Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs), Building and dwelling Efficiency, Energy: Government Residential Policy
    JEL: C21 I32 Q48
    Date: 2020–07
  10. By: Kassim, Fatima; Isik, Abdurrahman
    Abstract: This research investigates the impact of energy consumption on industrial growth. Variables used are; manufacturing vale added (dependent variable, electricity consumption, per capita income, exchange rate, import, and export by using yearly time series data from 1985 through 2017 in Nigeria. The OLS method of egression was used to estimate the equation in the period under review. Unit root test, Co-integration test and Granger causality were carried out to test for stationarity, long run relationship, and causal relationship, respectively. Results show a negative and insignificant relationship between electricity consumption and industrial growth. The unit root test shows that all variables are integrated of order one except for the exchange rate, which is stationary at level. The Co-integration test indicates that there exists the presence of long-run relationships. The granger causality indicates the growth hypothesis from industries in Nigeria. Generally, this paper stresses the dangers of inadequate electricity supply in the functioning of industries and businesses, which further worsens overall growth in the Nigerian economy.
    Keywords: Transition, Energy, Industry, OLS, Growth.
    JEL: L5 L6 Q43 Q5
    Date: 2020–07–10
  11. By: Marco Magnani (Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova, Italy and Italian Regulatory Authority for Energy, Network and the Environment (ARERA)); Fabio M. Manenti (Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova, Italy); Paola Valbonesi (Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova, Italy and Higher School of Economics, National Research University, (HSE-NRU), Moscow)
    Abstract: Following Shy (2002), we develop a simple model to determine consumers’ switching costs in the liberalized residential electricity market. By exploiting an original dataset on electricity prices and consumers in Italy, we use the theoretical predictions to measure consumers’ switching costs across the three main firms acting in the liberalized market. Our empirical results confirm the theoretical prediction that firms in the liberalized market are posting lower prices than the regulated one. Consumer decisions are found to be heavily affected by switching costs; our results show that the number of consumers in the regulated market negatively influences them. Switching costs appear to be particularly relevant for the incumbent firm while they are of lower magnitude for competitors – a result consistent with reputation playing a significant role in influencing customer switching.
    Keywords: Electricity Retail Markets, Liberalization in Electricity Markets, Switching Costs, Consumer Behaviour
    JEL: D12 L94 L98
    Date: 2020–07
  12. By: Regina Maria Marques da Fonseca Pereira (University of Coimbra, Faculty of Economics); Tiago Miguel Guterres Neves Sequeira (University of Coimbra, Centre for Business and Economics,CeBER, Faculty of Economics); Pedro André Ribeiro Madeira Cunha Cerqueira (University of Coimbra, Centre for Business and Economics,CeBER, Faculty of Economics)
    Abstract: We contribute to the renewable energy consumption-income (and growth) nexus literature by performing an empirical study on a worldwide panel data, also accounting for cross-country dependency using a parsimonious specification that accounts for traditional sources of income differences as well as institutional features of the countries. Our results present either negative or nonsignificant influence of the share of renewable energies consumption to economic growth and income.
    Keywords: Renewable energy consumption, economic growth regressions, economic growth.
    JEL: O40 Q21 Q43
    Date: 2020–06
  13. By: Lafforgue, Gilles; Lorang, Etienne
    Abstract: We study the recycling opportunity of an industrial sector constrained by climate, resource and waste capacities. A final good is produced from virgin and recycled materials, and its consumption releases both waste and GHG emissions. We identify the optimal trajectories of resources use, mainly depending on the emission rates of each resource and on the relative scarcity of their stocks. Recycling is sometimes an opportunity to reduce the impact of consumption on primary resources and waste but can still affect the environment. We characterize the optimal recycling strategy and we show that, in some cases, the time pace of the recycling rate is inverted U-shaped. Last, we discuss the policy implications of our model by identifying and analyzing the set of optimal tax-subsidy schemes.
    Keywords: Recycling; Resource extraction; Waste; GHG emissions.
    JEL: Q32 Q53 Q54
    Date: 2020–07
  14. By: Kenneth Gillingham; Bryan Bollinger
    Abstract: A growing literature points to the effectiveness of leveraging social interactions and nudges to spur adoption of pro-social behaviors. This study investigates a large-scale behavioral intervention designed to actively leverage social learning and peer interactions to encourage adoption of residential solar photovoltaic systems. Municipalities choose a solar installer offering group pricing, and undertake an informational campaign driven by volunteer ambassadors. We find a causal treatment effect of 37 installations per municipality from the campaigns, and no evidence of harvesting or persistence. The intervention also lowers installation prices. Randomized controlled trials based on the intervention show that selection into the program is important while group pricing is not. Our results suggest that the program provided economies of scale and lowered consumer acquisition costs, leading to low-cost emissions reductions.
    Keywords: non-price interventions, social learning, renewable energy, solar photovoltaic panels, technology adoption, natural experiment
    JEL: D03 L22 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2020
  15. By: Ramadorai, Tarun; Zeni, Federica
    Abstract: We use data from the Carbon Disclosure project (CDP) to measure firms' beliefs about climate regulation, their plans for future abatement, and their current actions on mitigating carbon emissions. These measures vary both across firms and time in a manner that is especially pronounced around the Paris climate change agreement announcement. A simple dynamic model of carbon abatement with a firm exposed to a certain future carbon levy, facing a trade-off between emissions reduction and capital growth, and convex emissions abatement adjustment costs cannot explain the data. A more complex two-firm dynamic model with both information asymmetry across firms and reputational concerns fits the data far better. Our findings imply that firms' abatement actions depend greatly on their beliefs about climate regulation, and that both informational frictions and reputational concerns can amplify responses to climate regulation, increasing its effectiveness.
    Keywords: abatement; Carbon Emissions; climate change; climate regulation; Dynamic Models; information asymmetry; reputation
    JEL: G31 G38 Q52 Q54
    Date: 2019–11
  16. By: Petra Zsuzsa Lévay; Josefine Vanhille; Tim Goedemé; Gerlinde Verbist
    Abstract: Understanding demand-side drivers and distribution of greenhouse gas emissions is key to design fair and efficient environmental policies. In this study, we quantify the relationship between the carbon footprint of consumption and socio-economic characteristics of Belgian households. We use a dataset that combines household-level consumption data with an environmentally extended input-output model which quantifies the greenhouse gas emissions embedded in the supply chain of goods and services that households consume. Similar to studies in other countries, we find that emission intensity (emissions per euro of expenditures) of households at the lower part of the income distribution is higher than that of richer households because poorer households spend higher share of their expenditures on emissions intensive products, especially on energy and housing. We also find that living standards and household size are the most important determinants of household consumption-related emissions. The expenditure-elasticity of household emissions is less than unity, i.e. emissions increase with expenditures, but in a less than proportionate way. However, the elasticity changes when emissions from different consumption domains are analyzed. It is lowest for energy and housing and highest for services.
    Date: 2020–04
  17. By: Bertrand Rioux; Abdullah AlJarboua; Fatih Karanfil; Axel Pierru; Shahd Alrashed; Colin Ward (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: Structural changes in the global oil sector are disrupting conventional market dynamics and the roles played by competing and cooperating producers. Industry players are adjusting to the shale (or ‘tight’) oil revolution and the possibility of plateauing or peaking global oil demand. In particular, OPEC and Saudi Arabia, its top producer, are reshaping the organization’s role as the primary residual supplier to the world oil market. In recent years, OPEC has invited other major exporters, including Russia, to cooperate under the OPEC+ production agreement in an effort to stabilize prices.
    Keywords: Competitive oil market, Equilibrium model, OPEC, Residual supplier, Shale oil
    Date: 2020–08–06
  18. By: Domon, Shohei; Hirota, Mayu; Kono, Tatsuhito; Managi, Shunsuke; Matsuki, Yusuke
    Abstract: Greenhouse gas emissions caused by urban residents' energy consumption arise from the 1) transportation and 2) housing sectors. This energy consumption depends on the population distribution of the city. This study quantitatively examines the effectiveness of congestion tolls, carbon tax, and land use regulations on the social welfare and the reduction of urban CO2 emissions. Results show that, among the three policies, the congestion toll can increase the social welfare by about 99% of the increase in the first-best scenario, which shows the best among the three policies, and can reduce the amount of total CO2 emissions by about 22%, which is almost the highest level among the three policies. These results suggest that congestion tolling, which is primarily the Pigovian tax for congestion, does not only internalize congestion externalities but also reduce CO2 emissions rather effectively through downsizing transportation distances and housing sizes with the spatial change in population density in the city.
    Keywords: Carbon tax; Congestion tolls; CO2 emissions; Land use regulations
    JEL: Q5 Q54 R0 R00
    Date: 2020–08–04
  19. By: Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández; Alessia Cafferata; Serena Sordi
    Abstract: Climate change is real. However, contrary to the near global consensus among the scientific community, international public opinion has moved in recent decades from increasing awareness to polarisation within and between nations. To the best of our knowledge, a comprehensive assessment of these trajectories formally addressing the interaction between agents and the (macro)economy is still missing. It is our purpose to ll such a gap in the literature by developing an agent-based model that allows for feedback effects between sentiments, environmental regulation and macroeconomic outcomes in an open economy set-up. Furthermore, we estimate the so-called green-Thirlwall law for a sample of 12 OECD countries between 1970 and 2014. Our findings confirm that Nordic countries have taken the lead in implementing green solutions. In terms of policy implications, we show that scientific literacy is a necessary but not sufficient condition for achieving a green-growth equilibrium. Policy makers should increase the public's response to Green House Gas emissions taking into account the fact that a successful communication strategy is conditional upon audience motivation
    Keywords: Climate change, green-growth, Thirlwall's law, Porter's hypothesis, motivated reasoning.
    JEL: O11 O44 Q01 Q56
    Date: 2020–06
  20. By: Mohammad Al Dubyan; Anwar Gasim (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center)
    Abstract: The government of Saudi Arabia, like many around the world, has long set domestic energy prices far below international market levels. This helps keep prices stable and energy affordable, providing important support to lower-income households.
    Keywords: Energy Demand, Energy Policy Reform, Energy Price, Environment, Saudi Arabia
    Date: 2020–06–21
  21. By: Bergantino, Angela Stefania (Management and Business Law, University of Bari Aldo Moro); Intini, Mario (Management and Business Law, University of Bari Aldo Moro); Perdiguero, Jordi (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)
    Abstract: This paper studies the daily price fixing behaviour of the Spanish fuel stations. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we show that low-cost and independent operators take advantage of needier consumers. Their prices increase on the day the unemployed workers receive their subsidy from the government, whereas, on the same day, branded companies decrease their prices. Retailers, aware of this, raise the price when they know demand increases. This phenomenon emphasises the effect of pay cycles on consumer choices and their related economic impact. Findings are also relevant for Antitrust authorities which generally focus on the activities of major brands’ stations.
    Keywords: retail fuel pricing ; subsidy recipients ; low-cost stations ; pay-cycles JEL codes: D12 ; H53 ; L11 ; L22 ; L40
    Date: 2020
  22. By: William W. Olney (University of Hawaii; Williams College)
    Abstract: This paper examines why the intra-continental trade share in Africa is only 12%, compared to 47% in North America, 53% in Asia, and 69% in Europe. Results show that exports to other African countries decrease more quickly with distance and increase less quickly with economic size, than exports to non-African countries. The analysis investigates possible explanations and identifies factors that promote trade between African countries. Intra-African exports are found to disproportionately increase with infrastructure (especially roads), trade agreements, and a more efficient customs clearing process. Diversifying the domestic economy away from agriculture and towards services is also associated with more intra-African trade. These results can guide efforts to promote African economic integration.
    Keywords: COVID-19; CO2 emissions; fuel consumption; Global VAR (GVAR); conditional forecasts
    JEL: C33 O50 P18 Q41 Q43 Q47
    Date: 2020–06
  23. By: Monica Maduekwe (Praia, Cabo Verde); Uduak Akpan (SPIDER Solutions, Uyo, Nigeria); Salisu Isihak (Rural Electrification Agency, Abuja, Nigeria)
    Abstract: The “Avoid”, “Shift” and “Improve” (A-S-I) approach is an effective method for transforming an unsustainable transport system to a sustainable one. This study intends to examine the possible impact of the A-S-I policy measures in transforming the transportation system in Lagos - the most populous city and the commercial capital of Nigeria. The study employs the Long Range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model to project future energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions to determine the most effective A-S-I option for the city. We construct a business-as-usual scenario for Lagos as well as sustainable road transport alternative policy scenarios. The results show that Lagos’ biggest obstacle to achieving its emission reduction target is the presence of very old vehicles on its roads. Our analysis shows that emission reduction in the road transport sector in Lagos is sensitive to vehicle survivability rate (i.e. the fraction of vehicles of a certain age still driven). We conclude that unless the age limit of vehicles in Lagos reduces from 40 years to 22 years, vehicle growth rate from 5% to 2% and mileage by 2% per year from 2020- 2032, Lagos may not achieve the target 50% emission reduction by 2032.
    Keywords: Road transport, energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, LEAP, Lagos, Nigeria
    Date: 2020–01
  24. By: Debnath, R.; Darby, S.; Bardhan, R.; Mohaddes, K.; Sunikka-Blank, M.
    Abstract: Text-based data sources like narratives and stories have become increasingly popular as critical insight generator in energy research and social science. However, their implications in policy application usually remain superficial and fail to fully exploit state-of-the-art resources which digital era holds for text analysis. This paper illustrates the potential of deep-narrative analysis in energy policy research using text analysis tools from the cutting-edge domain of computational social sciences, notably topic modelling. We argue that a nested application of topic modelling and grounded theory in narrative analysis promises advances in areas where manual-coding driven narrative analysis has traditionally struggled with directionality biases, scaling, systematisation and repeatability. The nested application of the topic model and the grounded theory goes beyond the frequentist approach of narrative analysis and introduces insight generation capabilities based on the probability distribution of words and topics in a text corpus. In this manner, our proposed methodology deconstructs the corpus and enables the analyst to answer research questions based on the foundational element of the text data structure. We verify theoretical compatibility through a meta-analysis of a state-of-the-art bibliographic database on energy policy, narratives and computational social science. Furthermore, we establish a proof-ofconcept using a narrative-based case study on energy externalities in slum rehabilitation housing in Mumbai, India. We find that the nested application contributes to the literature gap on the need for multidisciplinary methodologies that can systematically include qualitative evidence into policymaking.
    Keywords: energy policy, narratives, topic modelling, computational social science, text analysis, methodological framework
    JEL: Q40 Q48 R28
    Date: 2020–07–14
  25. By: Li, Lei; Löschel, Andreas; Pei, Jiansuo; Sturm, Bodo; Yu, Anqi
    Abstract: Is trade liberalization contributing to cleaner production amongst manufacturing firms? Theoretical predictions and empirical evidences are mixed. This study utilizes China's dual trade regime and China's WTO entry in 2001 to construct a unique micro dataset on manufacturing firms for China for the period 2000-2007, and performs a difference-in-difference estimation strategy to directly examine this issue. Specifically, normal exporters that saw tariff changes during the same period form the treatment group; while processing exporters that enjoy tariff-exemptions both pre- and post-WTO entry serve as the control group. Results show that China's WTO entry contributed to a lower SO2 emission intensity for normal exporting firms. We further examine the mechanism and show that the productivity channel accounted for the observed pattern. Specifically, more efficient normal exporters saw greater decline of SO2 emission intensity than average normal exporters. This study contributes to a better understanding of the impact of trade on the environment, especially in developing countries. It also complements the literature in terms of providing China's micro evidence on the impact of trade liberalization on firm's environmental performance.
    Keywords: WTO,trade liberalization,dual trade regime,SO2 emission intensity,China
    JEL: F18 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2020
  26. By: Azam, Jean-Paul
    Abstract: This paper shows that the two oil shocks that occurred in 1974-85 and 2003-15 inflicted sizable damage to total factor productivity (TFP) in France and Germany. These are resource-poor economies whose firms are importing most of their inputs of extractive commodities. The real prices they pay for them impact directly on their value added and hence on GDP in aggregate. We single out the price of crude oil as the most important and volatile of this set of highly correlated prices. This real price depends both on the world commodity market and on the exchange rates between the US dollar and the relevant European currencies, themselves determined by monetary policy in the US and in Europe. The significance of this mechanism is confirmed econometrically, and its quantitative implications are assessed. On average, these countries have lost more than 1% of potential TFP during these oil shocks, Germany being affected more severely than France. Historical analysis shows that episodes of US dollar appreciation have significant impacts on French and German TFP via this channel.
    Keywords: Oil Shocks, Total Factor Productivity, France, Germany
    JEL: N10 N70 O47
    Date: 2020–07–22
  27. By: Fix, Blair (York University)
    Abstract: Neoclassical economists fundamentally misunderstand the role of natural resources in the economy. I discuss here the source of this misunderstanding, and the ways we can better understand the role of energy to human societies.
    Date: 2020–07–11
  28. By: Lisa Bagnoli; Salvador Bertomeu; Antonio Estache; Maria Vagliasindi
    Abstract: The paper surveys the evidence for developing countries of the relevance for the poor of the ownership choice (i.e. public vs. private vs. mixed) in electricity and water & sanitation utilities. It shows that most of the still widely quoted evidence is outdated (based on pre-2010 data) and fails to reflect the longer term evolution of the ownership choices of the 1990s. The most recent data suggests that it matters less to social outcomes than regulatory governance and market structure. It makes the case for an ownership choice more coherent with the context and capacity constraints of countries and sectors. It also identifies significant knowledge gaps on the ways in which social considerations can be addressed under any ownership type and this defines a new research agenda.
    JEL: F63 H54 H57 L51 L90
    Date: 2020–07
  29. By: Masako Ikefuji (University of Tsukuba); Jan R. Magnus (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: A Bayesian typically uses data and a prior to produce a posterior. In practice, the data and the posterior are often observed but not the prior. We shall follow the opposite route, using data and the posterior information to reveal the prior. We then apply this theory to (equilibrium) climate sensitivity as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in an attempt to get some insight into their prior beliefs. It appears that the IPCC scientists have agreed a priori on a value for the climate equilibrium between 3.0-4.0 degrees Celsius, while judging the occurrence of a real disaster much more likely than the previous report predicts.
    Keywords: Revealed prior, climate sensitivity, IPCC
    JEL: C11 Q54
    Date: 2020–07–27
  30. By: Mönnig, Anke (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Schneemann, Christian (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Weber, Enzo (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Zika, Gerd (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Helmrich, Robert (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Bernardt, Florian (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])
    Abstract: "The electrification of the powertrain in passenger cars has a long-term negative effect on growth and employment at the federal level. However, analyses of the regional impacts of powertrain electrification are still scarce and only for specific regions. The present analysis attempts to close this gap. The central assumption of this analysis is that by 2035 electric cars will account for 23 percent of new registrations and have a stock of 2.3 million. The results show that the dynamics of regional labour markets vary significantly and that the regions are prepared for the structural change to a different extent. While some regions must expect job losses, there is also the potential to create many new jobs, as for example in the regions Düsseldorf/Ruhr or Frankfurt am Main. In particular, just more than 26 000 jobs will be lost in the regions of Munich and Stuttgart and 10 000 in the region of Hanover. Almost 55 percent of the 114 000 jobs that will be lost are located in these three regions. They are characterised by the large car manufacturers and the surrounding supply industry of vehicle construction. As a consequence of this almost all other regions are affected negatively directly and/or indirectly. Considering that the electro mobility scenario assumes an electric share of 23 percent by 2035 it can be assumed that a stronger market penetration will have significantly larger growth and employment effects. On the other hand, a positive growth and employment effect could be realised if Germany would achieve a position to supply the market with more domestically produced electric cars and with more domestically produced traction battery cells. The results shown above still do not include the impact of the current corona virus crisis. The further development depends on whether and how the corona pandemic affects the transformation process. So far, no car producer has been planning to reduce its investment activity in the area of electro mobility. From today's perspective, it therefore seems likely that only the pace of the transformation process will be affected. For example, a climate-friendly economic stimulus program could accelerate structural change." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))
  31. By: Xing, Yan; Handy, Susan; Circella, Giovanni; Wang, Yunshi; Alemi, Farzad
    Abstract: Higher-occupancy self-driving shuttles could bring about the benefits of vehicle automation—improved safety, parking cost savings, greater mobility to those who cannot drive, and stress relief for drivers. At the same time, these shuttles would not bring the potential drawbacks of self-driving vehicle ownership, such as increases in vehicle miles traveled and associated energy use. Because they can only currently operate in relatively simple and closed environments, self-driving shuttles are likely to be deployed earlier than personal self-driving vehicles in open road environments. However, acceptance of the new technology remains uncertain. Whether people will use these services will be largely influenced by their attitudes toward self-driving technology. Researchers at the University of California, Davis surveyed residents and employees of the West Village area of the UC Davis campus during the three-month pilot deployment of a self-driving, electric shuttle to understand attitudes toward self-driving technology. The researchers then applied existing theories of technology adoption to model how attitudes of residents and employees influenced their acceptance of the shuttle service. This policy brief summarizes findings from that research and provides policy implications of self-driving shuttles. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Acceptance, Autonomous vehicles, Choice models, Public opinion, Shuttle buses, Shuttle service, Structural equation modeling, Surveys
    Date: 2020–07–01
  32. By: Löschel, Andreas; Price, Michael; Razzolini, Laura; Werthschulte, Madeline
    Abstract: This study explores whether negative income shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic affect the demand for environmental policy. By running a survey in Germany in May 2020, we show that there is a large and negative correlation between the COVID-19 income shocks and the willingness to support green policies. Importantly, this relation is separate from the effect of long-run income. Building on this first evidence, our study provides directions for future valuation studies. Specifically, our results provide a proof of concept that welfare analyses based on willingness-to-pay estimates to assess the benefit of an environmental good or the cost of an environmental damage may be downward biased if temporary changes in income are not considered.
    Keywords: COVID-19,Environmental policy,Income shock,Welfare analysis,Willingness topay
    JEL: Q51 Q58 D61
    Date: 2020
  33. By: Hide-Fumi Yokoo (Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, Naka 2-1, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186-8601, Japan & Management (RIEEM), Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan.); Toshi H. Arimura (Faculty of Political Science and Economics & Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management (RIEEM), Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan.); Mriduchhanda Chattopadhyay (Graduate School of Economics, Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan.); Hajime Katayama (Faculty of Commerce & Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management (RIEEM), Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan.)
    Abstract: We investigate the accuracy of the perceptions of health risks in India. To examine systematic risk misperception, which is relevant to policy debates, we present the concept of the subjective risk belief function (SRBF). The context of our study is the risk of developing physical symptoms related to household air pollution caused by cooking. Using field data collected from 588 respondents in 17 villages in West Bengal, we regress the probability of symptoms conditional on fuel choices to estimate the respondent-specific health risk changes. Then, we elicit the subjective probabilistic beliefs using an interactive method with visual aids. Considering the estimated risks as objective risks, we estimate the linear SRBF. Our estimated coefficient of the average SRBF is in the range of 0.58 to 0.79, which implies a slight underestimation of the change in risk when switching from cooking with firewood to cooking with liquefied petroleum gas, although the respondents have a qualitatively accurate belief. We further find that risk misperception is correlated with religion but not with age or education.
    Keywords: Belief; Cooking fuel choice; Health risk; India; Risk misperception; Subjective probabilistic expectation
    JEL: D83 D84 I12 O13 Q53
    Date: 2020–08
  34. By: Ji, Qiang; Liu, Bing-Yue; Nguyen, Duc Khuong; Fan, Ying
    Abstract: This paper aims at investigating the dynamic dependence and extreme risk comovement of oil price and exchange rates in seven oil-importing and seven oil-exporting countries. For this purpose, we use six representative time- varying copula models and four types of tail dependences to assess the downside and upside conditional value-at-risk measures (CoVaRs). Our findings indicate that the dependence of crude oil returns and exchange rates is negative for most pairs, i.e., the rise (fall) in oil prices was accompanied by the appreciation (depreciation) of foreign currency against the US dollar. The oil price – exchange rate dependences in oil exporters are slightly larger than in oil importers, even though the dependence is weak in general. More interestingly, we find strong evidence of significant risk comovement between crude oil returns and exchange rates through the analysis of downside and upside CoVaRs. This comovement particularly showed asymmetric effects.
    Keywords: Time-varying copulas; tail dependence; CoVaR; oil price; US dollar exchange rate.
    JEL: G1 G15 Q4
    Date: 2019–04
  35. By: Ambec, Stefan; De Donder, Philippe
    Abstract: Is green consumerism beneficial to the environment and the economy? To shed light on this question, we study the political economy of environmental regulations in a model with neutral and green consumers where the latter derive some warm glow from buying a good of higher environmental quality produced by a profit-maximizing monopoly, while the good bought by neutral consumers is provided by a competitive fringe. Consumers unanimously vote for a standard set at a lower than first-best level, or for a tax delivering the first-best environmental protection level. Despite its under-provision of environmental protection, the standard dominates the tax from a welfare perspective due to its higher productive efficiency, i.e., a smaller gap between the environmental qualities of the two goods supplied. In stark contrast, voters unanimously prefer a tax to a standard when the willingness to pay for greener goods is small enough.
    Keywords: environmental regulation, corporate social responsibility, green consumerism, product differentiation, tax, standard, green label, political economy.
    JEL: D24 D62 Q41 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2020–07
  36. By: Dey, Oindrila; Chakravarty, Debalina
    Abstract: Electric Street Car (ESC) has established itself as an ideal public transport system for urban agglomeration by offering better safety, minimum pollution and conservation of fossil fuel. Yet, India envisions going all-electric by 2030 by procuring electric buses (e-buses) rather than ESCs. The crucial question is, why not upgrade the existing ESC considering that the e-buses need a profound infrastructural development in India. This paper studies the potential uptake rate of ESC over e-buses using stratified sampling data from 1226 daily public transport commuters of Kolkata, the only Indian city having an operational ESCs. We identify the demographic, psychometric and socio-economic factors influencing the probabilistic uptake of ESC over e-buses using a random utility choice model. It estimates that 38% of the commuters demand ESC over e-buses given the alternatives’ comparative details. ESC can be a model electric public transport if there is an improvement in factors, like frequent availability of ESCs and technological upgradation. By promoting the ESC services over e-buses, the government can potentially save on public investment and reach a low carbon pathway cost-effectively. The findings have crucial implications in exploration of the operational feasibility of ESC in the small and medium-sized cities of developing economies like India.
    Keywords: Public Transport, Electric Bus, Electric Street Car, Sustainability, Urban Area
    JEL: Q40 Q56 R49 R58
    Date: 2020–01
  37. By: John Gibson; Garth Heutel
    Abstract: We study the relationship between unemployment, environmental policy, and business cycles. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium real business cycle model that includes both a pollution externality and congestion externalities from labor market search frictions, which generate unemployment. We consider two policies to address the market failures: an emissions tax and a tax or subsidy on job creation. With both policies present, the efficient outcome can be achieved. When one policy is constrained or absent, we solve for the second best. The absence of a vacancy policy to address the congestion externalities substantially affects the value of the emissions tax, both in steady state and over the business cycle.
    JEL: E24 E32 Q58
    Date: 2020–06
  38. By: Fitiwi, Desta; Lynch, Muireann Á.; Bertsch, Valentin
    Date: 2019
  39. By: Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Alex Plastun
    Abstract: This paper explores price (momentum and contrarian) effects on the days characterised by abnormal returns and the following ones in two commodity markets. Specifically, using daily Gold and Oil price data over the period 01.01.2009-31.03.2020 the following hypotheses are tested: H1) there are price effects on days with abnormal returns, H2) there are price effects on the day after abnormal returns occur; H3) the price effects caused by abnormal returns are exploitable. For these purposes average analysis, t-tests, CAR and trading simulation approaches are used. The main results can be summarised as follows. Hourly returns during the day of abnormal returns are significantly bigger than those during average “normal” days. Prices tend to move in the direction of abnormal returns till the end of the day when these occur. The presence of abnormal returns can usually be detected before the end of the day by estimating specific timing parameters, and a momentum effect can be detected. On the following day two different price patterns are detected: a momentum effect for Oil prices and a contrarian effect for Gold prices respectively. Trading simulations show that these effects can be exploited to generate abnormal profits.
    Keywords: commodities, anomalies, momentum effect, contrarian effect, abnormal returns
    JEL: G12 G17 C63
    Date: 2020
  40. By: Kodjovi M. Eklou (International Monetary Fund)
    Abstract: This paper examines the relation between oil price shocks and the selection of educated national leaders. Exploiting a cross-country dataset on national leaders and a Difference-in-Difference approach, I find that positive oil price shocks significantly reduce the probability of selecting educated leaders--a ‘leadership curse’. I show that this phenomenon is driven by ethnically fragmented developing countries. I develop a model where a coalition of ethnic chiefs offers an electoral support to candidates in exchange for future favors. The model shows that positive oil price shocks deter the candidacy of educated citizens by allowing the coalition to tax the expected payoff from office. Hence, elites bargaining may constrain the ability of citizens to induce significant changes through the ballot box. The paper adds to the political aspects of the “resource curse” by showing that resource booms affect the “quality” of politicians before they take office.
    Keywords: Leadership curse, Oil price shocks, Political selection, National leadership.
    JEL: D72 Q33
    Date: 2020–06
  41. By: Emiko Inoue; Hiroya Taniguchi; Ken Yamada
    Abstract: Technological change is essential for balancing economic growth and environmental sustainability. This study measures and documents energy-saving technological change to understand its trends in advanced countries over recent decades. We estimate aggregate production functions with factor-augmenting technology using cross-country panel data and shift-share instruments, thereby measuring and documenting energy-saving technological change. Our results show how energy-saving technological change varies across countries over time and the extent to which it contributes to economic growth in 12 OECD countries from the years 1978 to 2005.
    Date: 2020–08
  42. By: Heigermoser, Maximilian; Glauben, Thomas
    Abstract: The shutdown measures implemented to fight the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in a historic drop in crude oil prices, which implies existential challenges to countries depending on energy exports. The three largest crude oil exporters in Africa (Algeria, Angola and Nigeria) are - like numerous other raw material exporters worldwide - facing devaluing currencies and dwindling currency reserves. As food security in these states largely depends on imports of wheat and rice, domestic food prices are expected to rise due to the currency depreciation. This puts further pressure on populations with already low incomes, while local shutdowns and reduced economic activity lead to additional income losses. Recent panic buying and (temporary) export restrictions on international grain markets further exacerbate the situation. Not least due to currently ample grain stocks, such measures are not to be recommended. Instead, solidarity amongst nations, taking the form of emergency aid such as debt relief, food deliveries and medical aid, is required more urgently than ever. Furthermore, it is advisable to ease bureaucratic and tariff trade barriers to facilitate international trade. Demands for greater autarchy and de-globalisation should be avoided in the current precarious situation.
    Date: 2020
  43. By: Becchetti, Leonardo; Conzo, Gianluigi; Conzo, Pierluigi; Salustri, Francesco (University of Turin)
    Abstract: he uneven geographical distribution of the novel coronavirus epidemic (COVID-19) in Italy is a puzzle given the intense flow of movements among the different geographical areas before lockdown decisions. To shed light on it, we test the effect of the quality of air (as measured by particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide) and lockdown restrictions on daily adverse COVID-19 outcomes at province level. We find that air pollution is positively correlated with adverse outcomes of the epidemic, withlockdown being strongly significant and more effective in reducing deceases in more polluted areas. Results are robust to different methods including cross-section, pooled and fixed-effect panel regressions (controlling for spatial correlation), instrumental variable regressions, and difference-in-differences estimates of lockdown decisions through predicted counterfactual trends. They are consistent with the consolidated body of literature in previous medical studies suggesting that poor quality of air creates chronic exposure to adverse outcomes from respiratory diseases. The estimated correlation does not change when accounting for other factors such as temperature, commuting flows, quality of regional health systems, share of public transport users, population density, the presence of Chinese community, and proxies for industry breakdown such as the share of small (artisan) firms. Our findings provide suggestions for investigating uneven geographical distribution patterns in other countries, and have implications for environmental and lockdown policies.
    Date: 2020–06
  44. By: Taherzadeh, Oliver
    Abstract: Measures which address the degradation and over-exploitation of natural resources are urgently needed, in individual countries and globally. However, the extraction and use of natural resources is highly interconnected, spatially and sectorally, within a complex web of interactions and feedbacks. Conventional resource footprinting does not reveal how pressures on natural resources are distributed across country and sector supply networks. Within this study pressures across the global water, energy and land (WEL) system are located within the supply networks of 189 countries and 24 global sectors. Pathways of water, energy and land use are found to be mainly indirect, arising from country and sector resource dependencies on immediate (Scope 2) and upstream (Scope 3) producers in their supply network. However, the distribution of these pressures is found to exhibit a high level of variation within and between national and sectoral supply networks and resource systems. Such differences in the resource pressure profile of countries and sectors is scarcely recognised by existing modelling approaches or supplier reporting guidelines, but is of major consequence for the study and management of pressures across the WEL system. If measures are not taken to extend accountability for the indirect pressures imposed across the WEL system, the resource burden of consumption will be greatly mismanaged.
    Date: 2020–06–23
  45. By: Carlos Felipe Pardo; Lina Marcela Quiñones
    Abstract: Actualmente, más de la mitad de la población mundial vive en centros urbanos y esto es particularmente cierto en América Latina y el Caribe, en donde más del 80% de la población es urbana (Programa de las Naciones Unidas Para los Asentamientos Urbanos – onu-Habitat, 2012). En este contexto, las políticas de desarrollo sostenible y planeación urbana cobran una relevancia especial. En este escenario, la promoción de la bicicleta es un componente vital para lograr una movilidad urbana más eficiente, segura, limpia y equitativa. Este artículo presenta la experiencia del uso de una aplicación móvil para recopilar datos sobre uso de la bicicleta en Cartagena, Colombia, con el fin de lograr mejores insumos para el desarrollo de políticas ciclo-inclusivas. El uso de la aplicación móvil permitió recopilar gran cantidad de datos en un tiempo corto y a un costo muy bajo, además, con un nivel de detalle que los métodos tradicionales difícilmente podrían equiparar. Se recolectaron y analizaron datos sobre horarios y días de mayor demanda, rutas más utilizadas y percepción de los usuarios. Se espera que estos datos sean utilizados para el desarrollo de una ciclo-infraestructura segura, directa, cómoda, coherente y atractiva, y que cumpla con las necesidades de los usuarios.
    Date: 2019–04–03
  46. By: Wheatcroft, Edward; Wynn, Henry P.; Lygnerud, Kristina; Bonvicini, Giorgio; Bonvicini, Giorgio; Lenote, Daniela
    Abstract: Urban waste heat recovery, in which low temperature heat from urban sources is recovered for use in a district heat network, has a great deal of potential in helping to achieve 2050 climate goals. For example, heat from data centres, metro systems, public sector buildings and waste water treatment plants could be used to supply 10% of Europe’s heat demand. Despite this, at present, urban waste heat recovery is not widespread and is an immature technology. Based on interviews with urban waste heat stakeholders, investors interested in green investments, and experience from demonstrator projects, a number of recommendations are made. It is suggested that policy raising awareness of waste heat recovery, encouraging investment and creating a legal framework should be implemented. It is also recommended that pilot projects should be promoted to help demonstrate technical and economic feasibility. A pilot credit facility is suggested aimed at bridging the gap between potential investors and heat recovery projects.
    Keywords: district heating and cooling; urban waste heat recovery; data centres; metro systems; low temperature; excess heat
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2020–04–23

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