nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2020‒07‒27
47 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Closing wells; fossil exploration and abandonment in the energy transition By Rodríguez, M; Van den Bijgaart, Inge
  2. Future Electric Vehicle Charging Demand at Highway Rest Areas and Implications for Renewable Energy Penetration in California By Kiani, Behdad; Ogden, Joan; Sheldon, F. Alex; Cordano, Lauren
  3. The U.S. Coal Sector between Shale Gas and Renewables: Last Resort Coal Exports? By Christian Hauenstein; Franziska Holz
  4. The Conditional Relationship between Renewable Energy and Environmental Quality in Sub-Saharan Africa By Asongu, Simplice; Iheonu, Chimere; Odo, Kingsley
  5. Revenue at Risk in Coal-Reliant Counties By Adele Morris; Noah Kaufman; Siddhi Doshi
  6. Potential Influences on the Prospect of Renewable Energy Development in OPEC Members By Alsadi, Hanan
  7. The Cost of Undisturbed Landscapes By Sebastian Wehrle; Johannes Schmidt; Christian Mikovits
  8. The POTEnCIA Central scenario: An EU energy outlook to 2050 By Leonidas Mantzos; Tobias Wiesenthal; Frederik Neuwahl; Mate Rozsai
  9. Reaching New Lows? The Pandemic's Consequences for Electricity Markets By David BENATIA
  10. Evaluation of the Benin Power Compact’s Electricity Generation and Distribution Projects: Baseline Report By Sarah M. Hughes; Christopher Ksoll; Kristine Bos; Anthony Harris; Serge Kennely Wongla; Dara Bernstein; Cullen Seaton; Galina Lapadatova
  11. Estimating the Costs and Benefits of Fuel-Economy Standards By Bento, Antonio; Jacobsen, Mark; Knittel, Christopher; Van Benthem, Arthur
  12. Barriers to grid-connected battery systems: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market By Yu Hu; David Soler Soneira; Mar\'ia Jes\'us S\'anchez
  13. A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf By Lutz Kilian; Nikos Nomikos; Xiaoqing Zhou
  14. Alternative global transition pathways to 2050: Prospects for the bioeconomy? By Robert M’Barek; George Philippidis; Tevecia Ronzon
  15. Climate change and bank stability: The moderating role of green financing and renewable energy consumption in ASEAN By Kamran, Hafiz Waqas; Haseeb, Muhammad; Nguyen, Thu Thuy; Nguyen, V.C.
  16. Nuclear Power as a System Good: Organizational Models for Production along the Value-Added Chain By Ben Wealer; Christian von Hirschhausen
  17. Socially inclusive renewable energy transition in sub-Saharan Africa: A social shaping of technology analysis of appliance uptake in Rwanda By Muza, O.; Debnath, R.
  18. Externalised costs of electric automobility: Social-ecological conflicts of lithium extraction in Chile By Schlosser, Nina
  19. How Large and Persistent is the Response of Inflation to Changes in Retail Energy Prices? By Chadi Abdallah; Kangni R Kpodar
  20. Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil By Nooman Rebei; Rashid Sbia
  21. Energy Contagion in the COVID-19 Crisis By Reinhold Heinlein; Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi; Scott M. R. Mahadeo
  22. Energy Efficiency and Climate Change / Eficiencia energética y cambio climático / Eficiència energètica i canvi climàtic By José García-Quevedo; Andreas Löschel; Joachim Schleich; Joan Batalla-Bejerano
  23. How to boost the European Green Deal’s scale and ambition By Rafael Wildauer; Stuart Leitch; Jakob Kapeller
  24. Oil Wealth and Property Rights By Indra de Soysa; Tim Krieger; Daniel Meierrieks
  25. Multivariate Circulant Singular Spectrum Analysis By Juan B\'ogalo; Pilar Poncela; Eva Senra
  26. Geographic and Socioeconomic Heterogeneity in the Benefits of Reducing Air Pollution in the United States By Tatyana Deryugina; Nolan H. Miller; David Molitor; Julian Reif
  27. Environmental markets exacerbate inequalities By Ambec, Stefan
  28. Large Time-Varying Volatility Models for Electricity Prices By Angelica Gianfreda; Francesco Ravazzolo; Luca Rossini
  29. Elektromobilität und Klimaschutz: Die große Fehlkalkulation By Schmidt, Ulrich
  30. The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market By Michael D. Bauer; Glenn D. Rudebusch
  31. The energy representation of world GDP By Boris M. Dolgonosov
  32. Routine Tasks were Demanded from Workers during an Energy Boom By Marchand, Joseph
  33. Implicaciones de política del Acuerdo de París en la planeación del sistema eléctrico de Colombia By Arango-Aramburo, Santiago; Vallejo, Juan Pablo; Riveros Salcedo, Leidy Cáterin; Melo Leon, Sioux Fanny; Pinchao, Andrés; Díaz Giraldo, Carolina; Calderón Díaz, Silvia Liliana; Romero Otálora, Germán; Alvarez-Espinoza, Andrés Camilo
  34. Economic assessment of GHG mitigation policy options for EU agriculture: A closer look at mitigation options and regional mitigation costs (EcAMPA 3) By Ignacio Perez Dominguez; Thomas Fellmann; Peter Witzke; Franz Weiss; Jordan Hristov; Mihaly Himics; Jesus Barreiro-Hurle; Manuel Gomez Barbero; Adrian Leip
  35. Modelling required energy consumption with equivalence By Yuxiang Ye; Steven F. Koch; Jiangfeng Zhang
  36. Um grande impulso para a sustentabilidade no setor energético do Brasil: subsídios e evidências para a coordenação de políticas By -
  37. Can the world get along without natural resources? By Fix, Blair
  38. Food, Fuel and the Domesday Economy By Juan Moreno-Cruz; M. Scott Taylor
  39. Forecasting Urban Residential Stock Turnover Dynamics using System Dynamics and Bayesian Model Averaging By Zhou, W.; O’Neill, E.; Moncaster, A.; Reiner D.; Guthrie, P.
  40. Multi-objective Optimal Control of Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and Economy: Evolution in Action By Mostapha Kalami Heris; Shahryar Rahnamayan
  41. Gemeinwohlkonflikte in der Energiewende: Eine radikaldemokratische Perspektive auf Energiekonflikte und die Grenzen der Deliberation By Krüger, Timmo
  42. Climate-Related Scenarios for Financial Stability Assessment: an Application to France By Thomas Allen; Stéphane Dees; Jean Boissinot; Carlos Mateo Caicedo Graciano; Valérie Chouard; Laurent Clerc; Annabelle de Gaye; Antoine Devulder; Sébastien Diot; Noémie Lisack; Fulvio Pegoraro; Marie Rabaté; Romain Svartzman; Lucas Vernet
  43. Negative income shocks and the support of environmental policies - Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic By Andreas Loschel; Michael Price; Laura Razzolini; Madeline Werthschulte
  44. Global Lessons from Climate Change Legislation and Litigation By Shaikh M. Eskander; Sam Fankhauser; Joana Setzer
  45. Assessment of Carbon Tax Policies: Implications on U.S. Agricultural Production and Farm Income By Jerome Dumortier; Amani Elobeid
  46. Cities, Taxation and Climate Change / Ciudades, fiscalidad y cambio climático / Ciutats, fiscalitat i canvi climàtic By Cristina de Gispert; Maria Börjesson; Gonzalo Delacámara; Ignasi Puig Ventosa
  47. The Importance of Retail Trade Margins for Calculating the Carbon Footprint of Consumer Expenditures: A Sensitivity Analysis By Radomir Mach; Milan Scasny; Jan Weinzettel

  1. By: Rodríguez, M; Van den Bijgaart, Inge
    Abstract: Despite ambitious climate goals and already substantial stocks of developed fossil energy reserves, development of new fossil energy reserves continues to be high. This raises concerns, as it reinforces the fossil industry’s opportunities and incentives to continue extraction, and may necessitate abandonment of developed fossil reserves to meet climate targets. In this paper, we analyze the energy transition, considering fossil exploration and development activities. We provide conditions for when the fossil industry will abandon reserves, and establish that continued exploration of fossil resources is not incompatible with abandoning developed reserves. The first-best implementation of a carbon budget always involves reserve abandonment, and thus exploration that pushes developed reservesin excess of the remaining budget. A quantitative assessment reveals that a volume equal to 9-19% of current oil and gas reserves are optimally abandoned, and that, even under a 1.5?C warming target, positive exploration of new reserves is justified for another decade.
    Keywords: carbon budget; energy transition; fossil exploration; nonrenewable resources; renewableenergy; stranded assets.
    JEL: Q21 Q31 Q35 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2020–07–14
  2. By: Kiani, Behdad; Ogden, Joan; Sheldon, F. Alex; Cordano, Lauren
    Abstract: California has goals to rapidly expand electric vehicle adoption, with executive orders calling for 1.5 million electric vehicles on the roads by 2025 and 5 million by 2030. Significant charging infrastructure will be needed to support these new vehicles. While many urban areas in California have prioritized construction of charging stations, most rural areas lack charging infrastructure. This deficit hinders electric vehicle adoption in rural areas and makes long distance electric vehicle travel difficult. To address this issue, Caltrans has begun investing in charging infrastructure in rural and underserved areas around the state, particularly at highway rest areas. However, an understanding of potential future intercity charging demand will be needed to inform continued investments in support of a growing electric vehicle fleet. This policy brief summarizes findings from researchers at the University of California, Davis, who collected state travel data and electricity demand data to run a model that identified optimal highway rest areas for electric vehicle charger installation and calculated how an increase in charging demand would affect the California electricity grid at selected highway locations. The project aimed to maximize the use and generation of solar and wind energy, while also increasing electric vehicle adoption and mobility in the state. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Electric vehicle charging, Electric vehicles, Intercity travel, Range (Vehicles), Renewable energy sources, Roadside rest areas, Solar power generation, Travel behavior, Travel demand
    Date: 2020–07–01
  3. By: Christian Hauenstein; Franziska Holz
    Abstract: Coal consumption and production have sharply declined in recent years in the U.S., despite political support. Reasons are mostly unfavorable economic conditions for coal, including competition from natural gas and renewables in the power sector, as well as an aging coal- fired power plant fleet. The U.S. Energy Information Administration as well as most models of North American energy markets depict continuously high shares of coal-fired power generation over the next decades in their current policies scenarios. We contrast their results with coal sector modelling based on bottom-up data and recent market trends. We project considerably lower near-term coal use for power generation in the U.S. This has significant effects on coal production and mining employment. Allowing new export terminals along the U.S. West Coast could ease cuts in U.S. production. Yet, exports are a highly uncertain strategy because the U.S. could be strongly affected by changes in global demand, for example from non-U.S. climate policy. Furthermore, coal production within the U.S. is likely to experience regional shifts, affecting location and number of mining jobs.
    Keywords: USA, coal, international coal trade, EMF34, numerical modeling, scenarios
    JEL: Q02 Q38 Q47 L72 C61
    Date: 2020
  4. By: Asongu, Simplice; Iheonu, Chimere; Odo, Kingsley
    Abstract: This paper complements existing literature by assessing the conditional relationship between renewable energy and environmental quality in a sample of 40 African countries for the period 2002 to 2017. The empirical evidence is based on fixed effects regressions and quantile fixed effects regressions. The findings from both estimation techniques show that renewable energy consistently decreases carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Moreover, the negative effect is a decreasing function of CO2 emissions or the negative effect of renewable energy on CO2 emissions decreases with increasing levels of CO2 emissions. In other words, countries with higher levels of CO2 emissions consistently experience a less negative effect compared to their counterparts with lower levels of CO2 emissions. Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Panel econometrics; Renewable energy; Carbon emissions; Africa
    JEL: Q32 Q40 Q55
    Date: 2019–01
  5. By: Adele Morris; Noah Kaufman; Siddhi Doshi
    Abstract: This paper examines the implications of a carbon-constrained future on coal-reliant county governments in the United States. We review modeling projections of coal production under reference and climate policy scenarios and argue that some state and local governments face important revenue risks. Complex systems of revenue and intergovernmental transfers, along with insufficiently-detailed budget data, make it difficult to parse out just how exposed jurisdictions are to the coal industry. A look at three illustrative counties shows that coal-related revenue may fund a third or more of their budgets. When the results of regression analysis of 27 coal-reliant counties are extrapolated outside the sample to the demise of the industry, they suggest these counties could lose on average about 20 percent of their revenue. This does not account for the potential downward spiral of other revenues as the collapse of the dominant industry erodes the tax base. Coal-dependent communities have issued a variety of outstanding bonds that will mature in a time frame in which climate policy is likely. Our review of illustrative bonds indicates that municipalities have not appropriately characterized their coal-related risks. Ratings agencies are only now beginning to document the hazardous exposure of some local governments to the coal industry. Climate policies can be combined with investments in coal-dependent communities to support their financial health. A logical source of funding for such investments would be the revenues from a price on carbon dioxide emissions, a necessary element of any cost-effective strategy for addressing the risks of climate change. We discuss how a small fraction of revenue from a federal carbon price in the United States could fund billions of dollars in annual investments in the economic development of coal-dependent communities and direct assistance to coal industry workers.
    JEL: H2 H7 H71 H74 H83 Q32 Q4 Q48 Q5 Q52 Q54 Q58 R11
    Date: 2020–06
  6. By: Alsadi, Hanan (Qatar University)
    Abstract: Countries across the world are increasing their share of renewable energy in their daily consumption. However, if this increasing trend in renewable energies would also prevail among Oil Producing Economic Countries (OPEC), is subject to debate. They all have abundant potential to invest in renewable energy sources. Yet, some of the Middle Eastern and Arab Gulf OPEC members do not have or have a small amount of renewable energy sources. In contrast, other members have significant renewable energy sources. The research is deficient in explaining why some OPEC members lag behind other members in their transition to renewable energy, including how Middle Eastern OPEC members are implementing renewable energy. the purpose of this paper is to explore the influences on OPEC members that result in some OPEC members starting to adopt renewable energy and others have not started. The paper proposes recommendations for those countries that are slow or reluctant to embrace renewable energy to achieve a transition from black to green.
    Date: 2020–06–13
  7. By: Sebastian Wehrle; Johannes Schmidt; Christian Mikovits
    Abstract: By 2030 Austria aims to meet \SI{100}{\percent} of its electricity demand from domestic renewable sources, predominantly from wind and solar energy. While wind power reduces \COO emissions, it is also connected to negative impacts at the local level. such as interference with landscape aesthetics. Nevertheless, wind power comes at lower system integration cost than solar power, so that it effectively reduces system cost. We quantify the opportunity cost of replacing wind turbines with solar power, using the power system model medea. Our findings suggest that these cost of undisturbed landscapes are considerable, particularly when PV is not entirely rolled out as utility scale, open space installations. The opportunity cost is likely high enough to allow for significant compensation of the ones affected by local wind turbine externalities.
    Date: 2020–06
  8. By: Leonidas Mantzos (European Commission - JRC); Tobias Wiesenthal (European Commission - JRC); Frederik Neuwahl (European Commission - JRC); Mate Rozsai (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: This report describes the evolution of the EU energy system until the year 2050 under the assumption that no further policies and measures are introduced beyond the end of 2017. The results show that both the energy and the carbon intensity of the European economy remain on a declining path in the 'Central' scenario set-up, but will miss mid-century targets. This evolution is driven by the continued impact of policies that are already in place in combination with technology progress, as well as by structural changes and the development of the prices of fossil fuels and of the CO2 allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System. The EU target to reduce GHG emissions by at least 40% from 1990 levels in 2030 will not be met under the assumptions of the scenario, confirming the need for additional policies and measures. The Central scenario was developed with the JRC´s energy model POTEnCIA and serves as reference point to which policy scenarios can be compared. It is the result of a transparent and iterative interactive exercise between the JRC, other Commission services and Member States' national experts within the POTEnCIA modelling framework.
    Keywords: Energy, Modelling, Energy System, Climate, Scenario
    Date: 2019–10
  9. By: David BENATIA (CREST (UMR 9194), ENSAE, Institut Polytechnique de Paris)
    Abstract: The large reductions in electricity demand caused by the COVID-19 crisis have disrupted electricity systems worldwide. This article draws insights from New York into the consequences of the pandemic for electricity markets. It disentangles the effects of the demand reductions, increased forecast errors, and fuel price drops on the day-ahead and real-time markets. From March 16 to May 31, New York has experienced a 6.5% demand reduction, prices have dropped, and producers have lost $87 million (-18%). This estimate extrapolates to $2.6 billion for the entire US. Looking forward, these new lows signal the needs for market design adjustments.
    Keywords: COVID-19, Demand, Energy, Electricity Markets.
    JEL: L94 Q02 Q41 Q47
    Date: 2020–06–05
  10. By: Sarah M. Hughes; Christopher Ksoll; Kristine Bos; Anthony Harris; Serge Kennely Wongla; Dara Bernstein; Cullen Seaton; Galina Lapadatova
    Abstract: Like many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, Benin suffers from weak electricity infrastructure, with critical deficiencies in access, installed capacity, and overall consumption.
    Keywords: Benin, Benin Compact, power, energy, electricity, power sector, grid monitors, smart meters, grid-level
  11. By: Bento, Antonio; Jacobsen, Mark; Knittel, Christopher; Van Benthem, Arthur
    Abstract: Fuel-economy standards for new vehicles are a primary policy instrument in many countries to reduce the carbon footprint of the transportation sector. These standards have many channels of costs and benefit, impacting sales, composition, vehicle attributes, miles traveled and externalities in the new-car fleet, as well as the composition and size of the used fleet. We develop a tractable analytical framework to examine the welfare effects of fuel-economy standards, and apply it to the recent government proposal to roll back fuel-economy standards. We find that our combined, multi-market vehicle choice model implies that the proposal would increase the size of the vehicle fleet over time, and also generates smaller welfare gains than models with a less rich structure of the vehicle market, such as the one used in the analysis associated with the 2018 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) announcement. The disparities across the two models appear to result from the absence of feedback effects in the NPRM analysis. We stress the importance of instead using a multi-market vehicle choice model to provide the most accurate predictions of costs and benefits. We also derive bounds that can serve as a check on the theoretical consistency of such analyses, and that other insights into the magnitudes of potential errors resulting from imperfect multi-market integration.
    Keywords: benefit-cost analysis; fuel-economy standard; Vehicles
    JEL: H23 L51 Q38 Q48 Q58
    Date: 2019–12
  12. By: Yu Hu; David Soler Soneira; Mar\'ia Jes\'us S\'anchez
    Abstract: Electrical energy storage is considered essential for the future energy system to solve the intermittency problems caused by renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power. Among all the energy storage technologies, battery systems may provide flexibility in a more distributed and decentralized way. In countries with deregulated electricity markets, grid-connected battery systems should participate in the electric power system and interact with other market players. In this study, the market designs of both wholesale markets and ancillary services in Spain are introduced, and the barriers to grid-connected battery storage are investigated under its specific market and regulatory framework. Finally, the numerical and empirical analysis suggests that the high cycle cost for battery is still the main barrier for grid-connected battery systems, and the flexibility offered by such systems would be currently the most promising comparative advantage for this novel technology. Additionally, a correct recognition of the barriers and advantages by all the stakeholders, including the system/market operator, policy maker, investor, and project manager, is the key factor to promote battery storage technologies in grid-connected applications. For market and system regulators, more efforts are necessary to reduce the barriers from regulatory framework, promote pilot projects, and design appropriate market products or services that adequately address the flexibility provided by different technologies.
    Date: 2020–06
  13. By: Lutz Kilian; Nikos Nomikos; Xiaoqing Zhou
    Abstract: Using a novel dataset, we develop a structural model of the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market between the Arabian Gulf and the Far East. We study how fluctuations in oil tanker rates, oil exports, shipowner profits, and bunker fuel prices are determined by shocks to the supply and demand for oil tankers, to the utilization of tankers, and to bunker fuel costs. Our analysis shows that time charter rates respond only slightly to fuel cost shocks. In response to higher fuel costs, voyage profits decline, as cost shocks are only partially passed on to round-trip voyage rates. Oil exports from the Arabian Gulf also decline, reflecting lower demand for VLCCs. Positive utilization shocks are associated with higher profits, a slight increase in time charter rates and slightly lower fuel prices and oil export volumes. Tanker supply and tanker demand shocks have persistent effects on time charter rates, round-trip voyage rates, the volume of oil exports, fuel prices, and profits with the expected sign.
    Keywords: shipping, VLCC, crude oil, bunker fuel, tanker, voyage, time charter, profits, exports, passthrough
    JEL: Q43 R41
    Date: 2020
  14. By: Robert M’Barek (European Commission - JRC); George Philippidis (European Commission - JRC); Tevecia Ronzon (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: In this study we build model-based scenarios following the European Commission's Global Energy and Climate Outlook to 2050, which constitutes a central element of EU's vision for a prosperous, modern, competitive and climate neutral economy. Results of this study indicate that in the reference scenario (REF) economic growth in developing and emerging countries remains strong towards 2050, while global income disparities persist. Over time, the economy is projected to become more energy-efficient, creating more wealth per GHG emissions. However, in absolute terms, GHG emissions keep growing by one third. The global food production increases by about 60% to feed the growing and richer world population, requiring 8% more land and related resources. The two Bioeconomy Strategy objectives on climate change and reduction of fossil-based energy use are largely reached. Important investments in innovation are a precondition for making these fundamental changes in the economy. It is accompanied by benefits also for resource usage, e.g. less land is used due to overall efficiency improvements and reduced climate change induced land yield reductions. The potential usage of this land must be carefully evaluated given the expected increase in land use over time. The circular bioeconomy has adequate macroeconomic conditions to evolve, as the high carbon price makes innovative bio-based industries more competitive in replacing conventional fossil-based inputs to petroleum blending, aviation and chemicals sectors.
    Keywords: Bioeconomy, MAGNET, CGE, transition, carbon-neutral, foresight
    Date: 2019–11
  15. By: Kamran, Hafiz Waqas; Haseeb, Muhammad; Nguyen, Thu Thuy; Nguyen, V.C.
    Abstract: The present investigation empirically determines the comparative as well as combine panel estimations for the relationship between climate change and bank stability in three selected ASEAN countries; Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand with the moderation of green financing and renewable energy. Five leading banks were chosen from each country based on green financing usage. The dependent variable was bank stability, which was proxies by z-score of ROA and ROE along with SDROA and SDROE. Climate change was the main independent variable, which was proxies by CO2 emission while the control variable was organization quality. Panel data estimation was applied using a fixed effect, random effect and pooled OLS technique along with the Hausman test and LM test. Both Hausman and LM tests were not significant which conformed pooled data estimation as the appropriate modelling. The comparative findings indicate that bank stability strongly decreased by climate change in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. The Green financing strongly enhances bank stability in the case of Malaysia and Thailand while renewable energy is a less important factor to enhance the bank stability for all the three countries. The moderation effect of green financing significantly enhances bank stability in the case of Malaysia and Thailand while the moderation effect of renewable energy enhances bank stability in the case of Malaysia and Indonesia only. The combined estimates conclude that climate changes strongly decreases the bank stability in the ASEAN region while the green financing and renewable energy positively influences the bank stability in this region with low significance. The moderation effect of green financing, as well as renewable energy positively, enhances the bank stability measures of ZROA and ZROE only in this region. The policy implication for this empirical investigation concludes that the policymakers in ASEAN region should promote green financing in all the banks with renewable energy in their economies as the source of alternative energy consumption to control to devastating changes in climate so that bank stability in this region is insured.
    Date: 2020–06–05
  16. By: Ben Wealer; Christian von Hirschhausen
    Abstract: Due to its technical complexity, the co-production of electricity generation and nuclear weapons, and its high fixed costs, nuclear power is a particularly complex commodity, which poses unusual challenges for state economic (or industrial, defense, innovation etc.) policy. As in other sectors, the question arises here, too, of an adequate division of private and public responsibilities, in other words "competition and planning", taking into account knowledge aspects, incentive structures, transaction costs and a fair distribution of revenues and burdens. The nuclear sector requires an upstream system of a knowledge base, institutional and physical infrastructure (sites, transport, waste storage, etc.) and legal and institutional infrastructure. In this paper we apply the "system good analysis" developed by Beckers et al. (2012) and Gizzi (2016) to the nuclear power sector and identify ideal-typical organizational models for the value-added stages of the so-called nuclear front-end (mining, conversion, enrichment, fuel fabrication), constructing nuclear power plants, decommissioning and long-term storage as well as the respective interfaces between these stages. The main purpose of this overview paper is to assign tasks, rights and duties to organizations ("stakeholders") at the various stages of the value chain and to define the interface problems. We use an institutional economics approach, which focusses on the provisioning decisions and production between public authorities and private actors. In addition to a general overview, we focus on the back-end of the nuclear energy value chain, the decommissioning of facilities and the short- and long-term disposal of radioactive waste.
    Keywords: nuclear power, organizational models, institutional economics, transaction cost, decommissioning, nuclear waste management
    Date: 2020
  17. By: Muza, O.; Debnath, R.
    Abstract: Rural off-grid renewable energy solutions often fail due to uncertainties in household energy demand, insufficient community engagement, inappropriate financial models, policy inconsistency and lack of political will. Social shaping of technology (SST) of specific household electric appliances provides a critical lens of understanding the involved sociotechnical drivers behind these constraints. This study employs an SST lens to investigate appliance uptake drivers in Rwanda using the EICV5 micro dataset, such that these drivers can aid in policy design of a socially inclusive renewable energy transition. The methodology includes a systemic and epistemological review of current literature on the drivers of appliance uptake in the Global South. These drivers were then analysed using binary logistic regression on 14,580 households. Results show that appliance uptake is highly gendered and urban-centric in Rwanda. The type of appliance determines its diffusion across the welfare categories, commonly referred as to Ubudehe categories. Regression results show that mobile phones, radios and TV-sets have a higher likelihood of ownership than welfare appliances (refrigerator and laundry machine) by low-income households. There is also a high likelihood of uptake of power stabilisers in urban-higher income households, indicating poor power quality and distributive injustices. Policy implications were drawn using the lens of disruptive innovation.
    Keywords: Energy transition, Off-grid system, Sub-Saharan Africa, Social Shaping of Technology, Gender, Disruptive innovation
    JEL: D1 N37 P28 P46 Q4
    Date: 2020–06–23
  18. By: Schlosser, Nina
    Abstract: Nowadays, electric automobility is considered to be the magic bullet in combating the heating climate. The necessary raw materials for the transformation of automobility in the global North, however, originate mainly from the global South to where the socialecological costs are externalised. While the global North's externalisation society with its imperial mode of living drives the electric vehicle forward in the fast lane, it is the internalisation society of the global South that cushions the hidden costs from which nature as a whole and a particular part of the population increasingly suffer. Nonetheless, the propertied class with its immense power resources, and hopeful wage earners with their desire for a peripheric imperial mode of living defend this construct successfully from outside attacks to this day as the Chilean case proves. This contribution intends to reveal the social-ecological costs resulting from the lithium extraction in Chile as result of the electrification of passenger cars in the EU, on the one hand, and to explain the muddle of power structures, especially in the global South, on the other, while giving the responsible actors a face and the parties concerned a voice.
    Keywords: electric automobility,Imperial Mode of Living,externalisation,Peripheric Mode of Living,internalisation,lithium,Chile
    Date: 2020
  19. By: Chadi Abdallah; Kangni R Kpodar
    Abstract: We estimate the dynamic effects of changes in retail energy prices on inflation using a novel monthly database, covering 110 countries over 2000:M1 to 2016:M6. We find that (i) inflation responds positively to retail energy price shocks, with effects being, on average, modest and transitory. However, our results suggest significant heterogeneity in the response of inflation to these shocks owing to differences in factors related to labor market flexibility, energy intensity, and monetary policy credibility. We also find compelling evidence of asymmetric effects—under sufficiently large shocks—in the case of high-income and low-income countries, with increases in retail fuel prices inducing larger effects on inflation than decreases in fuel prices.
    Date: 2020–06–12
  20. By: Nooman Rebei; Rashid Sbia
    Abstract: This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus permanent shocks, pointing to the importance of disentangling their distinct effects. Permanent supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements during the most recent decades, while speculative shocks became less influential.
    Keywords: Oil prices;Supply and demand;Oil production;Purchasing power parity;Real sector;Oil market,Vector autoregressions,Narrative analysis,Bayesian estimation,Kalman filtering,WP,global activity,endogenous variable,oil price,real price,supply shock
    Date: 2020–02–28
  21. By: Reinhold Heinlein; Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi; Scott M. R. Mahadeo
    Abstract: We investigate the relationship between oil prices and stock markets of selected oil importers and oil exporters at the time of the COVID-19 pandemic. We provide evidence in favour of energy contagion, in term of significantly higher correlations between oil and stock markets returns during turbulent phases in the oil market, for all countries in our sample. Our results are robust to different crisis datings and consistent across different segments of the assets return distributions.
    Keywords: contagion, intraday data, local correlation, oil, stock markets
    JEL: C58 G01 G15
    Date: 2020
  22. By: José García-Quevedo (Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB) / Universitat de Barcelona); Andreas Löschel (University of Münster); Joachim Schleich (Grenoble Ecole de Management (GEM)); Joan Batalla-Bejerano (Fundación para la Sostenibilidad Energética y Ambiental (FUNSEAM) / Universitat de Barcelona)
    Date: 2019
  23. By: Rafael Wildauer (Department of International Business and Economics, University of Greenwich); Stuart Leitch (University of Greenwich); Jakob Kapeller (Institute for Socio-Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany; Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria)
    Abstract: The European Green Deal (EGD) is the European Union’s flagship strategy to tackle climate change. This policy study compares the ambition and scale of the EGD with the current relevant scientific literature. The goal is to assess whether the current proposals are capable of fulfilling the EU’s commitment to limit global warming to 1.5°C in line with the Paris Agreement.
    Keywords: Climate Change, European Green Deal, Global Warming
    Date: 2020–07
  24. By: Indra de Soysa; Tim Krieger; Daniel Meierrieks
    Abstract: We empirically examine the impact of oil wealth on property rights protection for a sample of 156 countries between 1960 and 2014. We find that higher levels of oil wealth result in weaker private property rights. This result is robust to different instrumental-variable approaches and operationalizations of oil wealth and economic institutions. We argue that oil wealth creates an oil elite that wields disproportionate economic and political power over society. The elite uses this power to buy support for weak property rights from their supporters (the selectorate), while also punishing the opposition (i.e., the non-selectorate). Indeed, we also provide evidence that oil wealth leads to more clientelistic policies (benefitting the selectorate) but also more punitive measures (e.g., in the form of exclusion from state jobs) likely administered to the non-selectorate. We argue that the elite favors weak property rights because this blocks potential economic challengers, allowing for the consolidation and perpetuation of the economic and political status quo.
    Keywords: oil wealth, economic institutions, property rights, resource curse, selectorate theory
    JEL: D72 D73 O13 O17 Q34 Q38
    Date: 2020
  25. By: Juan B\'ogalo; Pilar Poncela; Eva Senra
    Abstract: Multivariate Circulant Singular Spectrum Analysis (M-CiSSA) is a non-parametric automated technique that allows to extract signals of time series at any frequency specified beforehand. It is useful to uncover co-movements at different frequencies and understand their commonalities and specificities. We apply M-CiSSA to understand the main drivers and co-movements of energy commodity prices at trend and cyclical frequencies that are key to assess energy policy at different time horizons. We clearly distinguish the detached behaviour of US natural gas from the rest of energy commodities at both frequencies while coals and Japan natural gas only decouple at the cyclical frequency.
    Date: 2020–07
  26. By: Tatyana Deryugina; Nolan H. Miller; David Molitor; Julian Reif
    Abstract: Policies aimed at reducing the harmful effects of air pollution exposure typically focus on areas with high levels of pollution. However, if a population’s vulnerability to air pollution is imperfectly correlated with current pollution levels, then this approach to air quality regulation may not efficiently target pollution reduction efforts. We examine the geographic and socioeconomic determinants of vulnerability to dying from acute exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution. We find that there is substantial local and regional variability in the share of individuals who are vulnerable to pollution both at the county and ZIP code level. Vulnerability tends to be negatively related to health and socioeconomic status. Surprisingly, we find that vulnerability is also negatively related to an area’s average PM2.5 pollution level, suggesting that basing air quality regulation only on current pollution levels may fail to effectively target regions with the most to gain by reducing exposure.
    JEL: I14 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2020–06
  27. By: Ambec, Stefan
    Abstract: Environmental markets distribute tradable rights on natural resources that are available for free on the earth such as water, biomass or clean air. In a framework where users differ solely in respect of their access to the resource, I investigate the allocation of rights that are accepted in the sense that, after trading, users obtain at least what they can achieve by sharing the resources they control. I show that, among all accepted rights, the more egalitarian ones do not allow any redistribution among users. Consequently, compared to an efficient allocation of resources, the net trading of rights always increases inequality.
    Keywords: Common-pool resources, environmental externalities, property rights, cooperative game, fairness, tradable quotas, emission permits.
    JEL: C71 D02 D63 Q28 Q38 Q58
    Date: 2020–07–03
  28. By: Angelica Gianfreda; Francesco Ravazzolo; Luca Rossini
    Abstract: We study the importance of time-varying volatility in modelling hourly electricity prices when fundamental drivers are included in the estimation. This allows us to contribute to the literature of large Bayesian VARs by using well-known time series models in a huge dimension for the matrix of coefficients. Based on novel Bayesian techniques, we exploit the importance of both Gaussian and non-Gaussian error terms in stochastic volatility. We find that by using regressors as fuels prices, forecasted demand and forecasted renewable energy is essential in order to properly capture the volatility of these prices. Moreover, we show that the time-varying volatility models outperform the constant volatility models in both the in-sample model- fit and the out-of-sample forecasting performance.
    Keywords: Electricity, Hourly Prices, Renewable Energy Sources, Non-Gaussian, Stochastic-Volatility, Forecasting
    Date: 2020–07
  29. By: Schmidt, Ulrich
    Abstract: Aktuelle Studien haben berechnet, dass das Elektroauto bereits beim jetzigen Strommix in Deutschland eine positive Klimabilanz besitzt. Der Autor stellt jedoch fest, dass diese Studien den erhöhten Stromverbrauch, der aus dem Ausbau der Elektromobilität resultiert, vernachlässigen. Er zeigt, dass bei Berücksichtigung des erhöhten Stromverbrauchs Elektroautos tatsächlich zu 73% höheren Treibhausgasemissionen führen als moderne Diesel-PKWs. Als Begründung führt er an, dass es umweltschonender ist, erneuerbare Energien zur Reduzierung der Verstromung von Kohle zu nutzen, als damit Elektroautos zu betanken.
    Keywords: Elektromobilität,Klimawandel,Treibhausgasemissionen,Kohleverstromung,electric cars,climate change,greenhouse gas emissions,coal
    Date: 2020
  30. By: Michael D. Bauer; Glenn D. Rudebusch
    Abstract: The level of the social discount rate (SDR) is a crucial factor for evaluating the costs of climate change. We demonstrate that the equilibrium or steady-state real interest rate is the fundamental anchor for market-based SDRs. Much recent research has pointed to a decrease in the equilibrium real interest rate since the 1990s. Using new estimates of this decline, we document a pronounced downward shift in the entire term structure of SDRs in recent decades. This lower new normal for interest rates and SDRs has substantially boosted the estimated economic loss from climate change and the social cost of carbon.
    Keywords: social discount rate; cost of carbon; natural rate of interest; r-star
    JEL: E43 E44 Q54 H43
    Date: 2020–07–07
  31. By: Boris M. Dolgonosov
    Abstract: The dependence of world GDP on current energy consumption and total energy produced over the previous period and materialized in the form of production infrastructure is studied. The dependence describes empirical data with high accuracy over the entire observation interval 1965-2018.
    Date: 2020–06
  32. By: Marchand, Joseph (University of Alberta, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: Energy booms are most often associated with large increases in employment and earnings, as well as positive local labor market spillovers from energy to non-energy industries. In this study, the large, localized, and positive labor demand shock from an energy price boom in Western Canada was also found to increase the routine and manual task content of employment across the occupational distribution. Both occupation groups involving routine manual tasks (operators, fabricators and laborers; and production, craft, and repair), as well as one occupational group involving non-routine cognitive tasks (technicians), significantly increased their employment shares during this boom. However, these results show that only the routinization of employment had a significant impact on wages; not manualization. This conventional boom evidence illustrates how an energy boom can impact labor, beyond the traditional changes in employment and earnings, and serves as a counterexample to the documented occupational polarization often attributed to technological change.
    Keywords: employment; energy boom and bust; labor demand; occupational structure; routine tasks
    JEL: J23 J31 Q33 R23
    Date: 2020–07–09
  33. By: Arango-Aramburo, Santiago; Vallejo, Juan Pablo; Riveros Salcedo, Leidy Cáterin; Melo Leon, Sioux Fanny; Pinchao, Andrés; Díaz Giraldo, Carolina; Calderón Díaz, Silvia Liliana; Romero Otálora, Germán; Alvarez-Espinoza, Andrés Camilo
    Abstract: Este documento analiza la incidencia de la política climática internacional en la planeación y el desarrollo del sistema eléctrico de Colombia. Particularmente, estudia las implicaciones que tendría el cumplimiento de las contribuciones nacionalmente determinadas (NDC) presentadas en el Acuerdo de Paris sobre el Sistema Interconectado Nacional. Para lograrlo, este documento se apoyó de las modelaciones realizadas por Arango-Aramburo, et al., (2018), quienes identificaron posibles trayectorias de adaptación del sector eléctrico colombiano, considerando que los escenarios de cambio climático podrían alterar los aportes hídricos a las centrales hidroeléctricas. Los resultados muestran que, ante el incumplimiento del Acuerdo de París, se produciría una disminución en la disponibilidad de generación hidroeléctrica que conduciría a la puesta en marcha de estrategias de adaptación del sistema eléctrico basadas en el uso de combustibles fósiles. En contraste, en el escenario que se implemente el Acuerdo, con su nivel actual de ambición, la disminución en la disponibilidad hídrica en el largo plazo sería menor, y las alternativas de adaptación se dirigirían a emplear energéticos convencionales –carbón, gas– con mecanismo de captura o a diversificar las fuentes de energía hacia las renovables, usando tecnologías como la solar y la eólica.
    Keywords: Cambio climático; Acuerdo de París; hidroeléctricas; energías renovables; TIAM-ECN; GCAM; Phoenix; MEG4C
    JEL: F64 Q25 Q42 Q54
    Date: 2020–06
  34. By: Ignacio Perez Dominguez (European Commission - JRC); Thomas Fellmann (European Commission - JRC); Peter Witzke (EuroCARE GmbH); Franz Weiss (European Commission - JRC); Jordan Hristov (European Commission - JRC); Mihaly Himics (European Commission - JRC); Jesus Barreiro-Hurle (European Commission - JRC); Manuel Gomez Barbero (European Commission - JRC); Adrian Leip (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: This report highlights the importance of assessing emission mitigation from a multidimensional perspective. For this, a quantitative framework to analyse the potential contribution of different technological mitigation options in EU agriculture is described in this report. Within the boundaries of the analysis, the need to consider land use, land-use change and forestry emissions and removals for a comprehensive analysis of the sector’s potential contribution to achieve certain greenhouse gas mitigation targets is highlighted. The assessment of carbon dioxide emissions and removals is also important in light of the new flexibility introduced in the EU 2030 regulation framework. Regarding a possible ranking of mitigation technologies in terms of their mitigation potential and attached costs, the analysis clearly highlights the need to consider mitigation technologies as ‘a bundle’. It is important to avoid the simple aggregation of mitigation potentials by single measures without taking into account their interactions both from a biophysical and economic perspective. Moreover, the analysis quantifies how mitigation measures might influence differently the agricultural sector in different EU Member States, stating that there is no ‘one fits all’ rule that could be followed for selecting which mitigation technologies should be implemented at regional level. In the policy context of the European Green Deal, the Effort Sharing Regulation and the CAP-post 2020, our results imply that farmers should have flexibility with regard to which mitigation options to adopt in order to find the right mix fitting to the regional circumstances.
    Keywords: EU agriculture, climate change mitigation, technologies, land use and land use change, marginal abatement cost curves
    JEL: Q11 Q13 Q18 Q51 Q52 Q54
    Date: 2020–04
  35. By: Yuxiang Ye; Steven F. Koch; Jiangfeng Zhang
    Abstract: This study proposes an equivalence scale model for required energy consumption at the household level. The proposed approach equivalises actual energy expenditure across households in two steps: estimating an equivalence scale and dividing actual expenditure by the estimated scale for each household. We apply the method in a case study where data on required energy expenditure are not available. Our South African case study results suggest that the energy equivalence scale di ers from both income and energy equivalence factors used in developed countries, while the choice of equivalence estimation method has limited impact on energy requirements. As expected in a middle income and highly unequal country, estimates of required energy consumption are well above actual energy expenditure for low- and mid-income households. Given the similarity of results across methods, we are further able to suggest that required energy consumption, where data are not available, can be quickly estimated from expenditure data. Required energy consumption, Equivalence scale, Energy poverty, Semiparametric regression.
    JEL: I31 Q40 Q48
    Date: 2020–02
  36. By: -
    Abstract: A conjuntura atual do Brasil e dos países no mundo todo é marcada pela busca da recuperação do dinamismo econômico e da qualidade de vida das pessoas. Nesse contexto, a Comissão Econômica para a América Latina e o Caribe (CEPAL) das Nações Unidas vem desenvolvendo o Big Push para a Sustentabilidade, uma abordagem renovada para apoiar os países da região na construção de estilos de desenvolvimento mais sustentáveis, por meio da coordenação de políticas para promover investimentos transformadores desses estilos. O Escritório da CEPAL em Brasília e o Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos (CGEE), com a participação de diversos parceiros, desenvolveram o projeto Grande Impulso Energia (Energy Big Push) Brasil, buscando evidências para a promoção de investimentos em inovação para uma transição energética em bases sustentáveis no país. O mergulho nas páginas desta publicação permitirá ao leitor ampliar sua compreensão sobre o panorama de investimentos em inovação energética, o desempenho de tecnologias de baixo carbono e o quadro de políticas para aumento das competências tecnológicas em energias limpas, contribuindo para um grande impulso energético no Brasil.
    Date: 2020–06–15
  37. By: Fix, Blair
    Abstract: In the distant future, aliens come to Earth. They find a planet devoid of life. Looking closer, the aliens see that life on Earth was once abundant, but was wiped out by a mass extinction. Curiously, this event was driven not by geological disaster, but by one of the extinct species itself. In an orgy of consumption, an odd little animal put the planet under enough stress to drive itself - and the rest of life - extinct. Then comes a startling discovering. Preserved in the sediment lies a document written by a member of the doomed species. What secrets does it contain? The aliens work for years to translate it, hoping that it offers a clue about what drove the species to overconsume. And indeed it does. The document heralds a remarkable delusion: "The world can, in effect, get along without natural resources." What a naive animal, the aliens conclude. While sucking the planet dry, the animal proclaimed its independence from natural resources. No wonder it went extinct.
    Keywords: growth,energy,natural resources,neoclassical economics,property
    Date: 2020
  38. By: Juan Moreno-Cruz; M. Scott Taylor
    Abstract: This paper develops a theory where access to food and fuel energy is critical to the location, number, and size of human settlements. By combining our theory with a simple Malthusian mechanism, we generate predictions for the distribution of economic activity and population across geographic space. We evaluate the model using data drawn from the very first census undertaken in the English language - the Domesday census - commissioned by William the Conqueror in 1086 A.D. Using G.I.S. data and techniques we find strong evidence that Malthusian forces determined the population size and the number of settlements in Domesday England.
    JEL: Q4 R12
    Date: 2020–06
  39. By: Zhou, W.; O’Neill, E.; Moncaster, A.; Reiner D.; Guthrie, P.
    Abstract: Knowing the size of the building stock is perhaps the most basic determinant in assessing energy use in buildings. However, official statistics on urban residential stock for many countries are piecemeal at best. Previous studies estimating stock size and energy use make various debateable methodological assumptions and only produce deterministic results. We present a Bayesian approach to characterise stock turnover dynamics and estimate stock size uncertainties, applied here to the case of China. Firstly, a probabilistic dynamic building stock turnover model is developed to describe the building aging and demolition process, governed by a hazard function specified by a parametric survival model. Secondly, using five candidate parametric survival models, the building stock turnover model is simulated through Markov Chain Monte Carlo to obtain posterior distributions of model-specific parameters, estimate marginal likelihood, and make predictions of stock size. Thirdly, Bayesian Model Averaging is applied to create a model ensemble that combines model-specific posterior predictive distributions of the recent historical stock evolution pathway in proportion to posterior model probabilities. Finally, the Bayesian Model Averaging model ensemble is extended to forecast future trajectories of residential stock development through 2100. The modelling results suggest that the total stock in China will peak around 2065, at between 42.4 and 50.1 billion m 2 . This Bayesian modelling framework produces probability distributions of annual total stock, age-specific substocks, annual new buildings and annual demolition rates. This can support future analysis of policy trade-offs across embodied-versus-operational energy consumption, in the context of sector-wide decarbonisation.
    Keywords: building stock, lifetime distribution, System Dynamics, Bayesian Model Averaging, Markov Chain Monte Carlo, embodied energy, operational energy, China
    JEL: C11 O18 R21
    Date: 2020–06–16
  40. By: Mostapha Kalami Heris; Shahryar Rahnamayan
    Abstract: One of the widely used models for studying economics of climate change is the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and Economy (DICE), which has been developed by Professor William Nordhaus, one of the laureates of the 2018 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. Originally a single-objective optimal control problem has been defined on DICE dynamics, which is aimed to maximize the social welfare. In this paper, a bi-objective optimal control problem defined on DICE model, objectives of which are maximizing social welfare and minimizing the temperature deviation of atmosphere. This multi-objective optimal control problem solved using Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) also it is compared to previous works on single-objective version of the problem. The resulting Pareto front rediscovers the previous results and generalizes to a wide range of non-dominant solutions to minimize the global temperature deviation while optimizing the economic welfare. The previously used single-objective approach is unable to create such a variety of possibilities, hence, its offered solution is limited in vision and reachable performance. Beside this, resulting Pareto-optimal set reveals the fact that temperature deviation cannot go below a certain lower limit, unless we have significant technology advancement or positive change in global conditions.
    Date: 2020–06
  41. By: Krüger, Timmo
    Abstract: Aushandlungsprozesse im Energiebereich bilden oftmals Kristallisationspunkte für Gemeinwohlkonflikte. In den Auseinandersetzungen um konkrete EnergieinfrastrukturProjekte wird darum gerungen, welche Interessen als Interessen der Allgemeinheit und damit als legitime Interessen anerkannt werden und welche nicht. Diese Konflikte sind zunächst einmal eine Reaktion auf die Ausgestaltung der Energiewende und wirken gleichzeitig auf diese zurück. Darüber hinaus stehen die Gemeinwohlkonflikte in der Energiewende in einem wechselseitigen Wirkungsverhältnis mit der politischen Kultur einer Gesellschaft. Sie sind Effekt und gleichzeitig Mitproduzent der in der Gesellschaft verhandelten Vorstellungen von Demokratie und damit verknüpfte Erwartungen, Normen und Werte. Das vorliegende Discussion Paper möchte einen dreifachen Beitrag zur Analyse und Reflexion der Gemeinwohlkonflikte in der Energiewende leisten. Erstens wird ein Überblick über die empirische Forschung zu Gemeinwohlkonflikten in der Energiewende in Deutschland gegeben. Zweitens werden theoretische Gemeinwohldefinitionen und Demokratiemodelle diskutiert. Der Schwerpunkt liegt dabei auf dem deliberativen Paradigma und der radikaldemokratischen Kritik seiner Grundannahmen und Implikationen (angesichts von Tendenzen einer Demokratiekrise). Drittens wird ein Analyseraster zur Erforschung von Gemeinwohlkonflikten aus radikaldemokratischer Perspektive entwickelt.
    Keywords: Agonale Politik,Deliberation,Energiewende,Gemeinwohl,radikale Demokratietheorie,agonistic politics,common good,deliberation,energy transition,radical democracy theory
    Date: 2020
  42. By: Thomas Allen; Stéphane Dees; Jean Boissinot; Carlos Mateo Caicedo Graciano; Valérie Chouard; Laurent Clerc; Annabelle de Gaye; Antoine Devulder; Sébastien Diot; Noémie Lisack; Fulvio Pegoraro; Marie Rabaté; Romain Svartzman; Lucas Vernet
    Abstract: This paper proposes an analytical framework to quantify the impacts of climate policy and transition narratives on economic and financial variables necessary for financial risk assessment. Focusing on transition risks, the scenarios considered include unexpected increases in carbon prices and productivity shocks to reflect disorderly transition processes. The modelling framework relies on a suite of models, calibrated on the high-level reference scenarios of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS). Relying on this approach, the ACPR has selected a number of quantitative scenarios to be submitted to agroup of voluntary banks and insurance companies to conduct the first bottom-up pilot climate-related risk assessment.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Scenario Analysis, Economic Modelling, Financial Stability .
    JEL: C60 E50 G32 O44 Q40 Q54
    Date: 2020
  43. By: Andreas Loschel; Michael Price; Laura Razzolini; Madeline Werthschulte
    Abstract: This study explores whether negative income shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic affect the demand for environmental policy. By running a survey in Germany in May 2020, we show that there is a large and negative correlation between the COVID-19 income shocks and the willingness to support green policies. Importantly, this relation is separate from the effect of long-run income. Building on the first evidence, our study provides directions for future valuation studies. Specifically, our results provide a proof of concept that welfare analyses based on willingness-to-pay estimates to assess the benefits of an environmental good or the cost of an environmental damage may be downward biased if temporary changes in income are not considered.
    Date: 2020
  44. By: Shaikh M. Eskander; Sam Fankhauser; Joana Setzer
    Abstract: There is no country in the world that does not have at least one law or policy dealing with climate change. The most prolific countries have well over 20, and globally there are 1,800 such laws. Some of them are executive orders or policies issued by governments, others are legislative acts passed by parliament. The judiciary has been involved in 1,500 court cases that concern climate change (over 1,100 of which in the US). We use Climate Change Laws of the World (CCLW), a publicly accessible database, to analyze patterns and trends in climate change legislation and litigation over the past 30 years. The data reveal that global legislative activity peaked around 2009-14, well before the Paris Agreement. Accounting for effectiveness in implementation and the length of time laws have been in place, the UK and South Korea are the most comprehensive legislators among G20 countries and Spain within the OECD. Climate change legislation is less of a partisan issue than is commonly assumed: the number of climate laws passed by governments of the left, center and right is roughly proportional to their time in office. We also find that legislative activity decreases in times of economic difficulty. Where courts have got involved, judges outside the US have ruled in favor of enhanced climate protection in about half of the cases (US judges are more inclined to rule against climate protection).
    JEL: K32 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2020–06
  45. By: Jerome Dumortier; Amani Elobeid (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD))
    Abstract: We assess the regional differences of three carbon tax scenarios on U.S. agriculture in terms of commodity prices, crop production, and farm income. Our model covers corn, sorghum, soybeans, and wheat between 2018 and 2030 and carbon prices ranging from $62 to $144 t-1 CO2-e at the end of the projection period. The basis for the analysis are the carbon tax projections from the 2020 Annual Energy Outlook produced by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Our county-level results indicate the smallest percentage decline in terms of net revenue in the U.S. Midwest despite the operating cost for corn increasing the most. We find that the increase encourages the reduction in corn area which raises corn prices such that the overall decline in net returns is small relative to other crops. Net returns for wheat in Kansas, Montana and the Dakotas decline the most. From a policy perspective, it is important to note that crop prices together with input cost are increasing and thus, the decline in net returns for farmers is offset to a certain degree. We hypothesize that the presence of the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) dampens some of the declines in net returns because the retirement of cropland increases commodity prices for counties remaining in crop production.
    Date: 2020–07
  46. By: Cristina de Gispert (Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB) / Universitat de Barcelona); Maria Börjesson (VTI Swedish Transport Research Institute / KTH Royal Institute of Technology); Gonzalo Delacámara (IMDEA Water Institute); Ignasi Puig Ventosa (ENT Environment & Management)
    Date: 2020
  47. By: Radomir Mach (a Charles University, Faculty of Humanities, Environment Center, Jose Martiho 407/2; Prague 6, Czech Republic); Milan Scasny (Charles University, Environment Center, Jose Martiho 407/2, Prague 6, Czech Republic; Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Opletalova 26, 110 00, Prague, Czech Republic); Jan Weinzettel (Charles University, Environment Center, Jose Martiho 407/2, Prague 6, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: If environmental footprint attributable to various consumption patterns are evaluated, monetary transactions in the environmentally-extended input-output analysis need to be linked to household-specific expenditures. However, while the former are recorded in basic prices, the latter is typically recorded in purchaser's prices, adding a commodity tax and margins to basic prices. Product homogeneity assumption —inherent to input-output analysis — implies that two identical products sold to consumers with different retail trade margins are responsible for different footprints. In this paper we investigate how footprint attributable to Food and Goods is affected across household income classes if we relax the homogeneity assumption and assume different allocations of retail trade margins across the income classes. While different allocations affect footprints of the two Consumption groups significantly, in particular in the highest deciles, the effect on total footprint is very small, up to 10% even for two extreme cases of margins allocation.
    Keywords: Environmentally extended input–output analysis, carbon footprint, GHG emissions, retail trade margins, product homogeneity assumption, sensitivity analysis
    JEL: C67 R15 Q56 Q57
    Date: 2020–06

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