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on Energy Economics |
| By: | David Popp; Jacquelyn Pless; Ivan Haščič; Nick Johnstone |
| Abstract: | Historically, innovation in the energy sector proceeded slowly and entrepreneurial start-up firms played a relatively minor role. We argue that this may be changing. Energy markets are going through a period of profound structural change. The rise of hydrofracturing lowered fossil fuel prices so much that natural gas is now the primary fuel for electricity generation in the US. Renewable energy technologies also experienced significant cost and performance improvements. However, integrating intermittent resources creates additional grid management challenges, requiring further innovation. This chapter documents the evolving roles of innovation and entrepreneurship in the energy sector. First, we provide an overview of the energy industry, highlighting that many new energy technologies are smaller, modular, and increasingly rely on innovation in other fast-moving high-tech sectors. We then conduct two descriptive data analyses that document a sharp decline in both clean energy patenting and start-up activity from about 2010 onwards. We discuss potential explanations and provide some evidence that while innovation in existing technologies may simply have been successful, continued innovation will be needed in enabling technologies that are more likely to depend on progress in other sectors. |
| JEL: | O31 Q4 Q42 Q55 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27145&r=all |
| By: | Hammed Oluwaseyi Musibau; Rabindra Nepal; Joaquin L. Vespignani; Maria Yanotti |
| Abstract: | The recent environmental challenges in Africa that emanated from global warming, human activity, limited access to electricity and overexploitation of natural resources have contributed to the growth of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the region. This paper empirically investigates the moderating role of green energy consumption and energy innovation in the environmental Kuznets curve for the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region using data spanning from 1980 to 2018. Our threshold model found that at least 54 percent of the population needs access to energy innovation before the region could be safe from environmental degradation. We conclude that investment in green energy, energy innovation and conservation of natural resources will help to mitigate environmental degradation in SSA in the long run. Policies should be targeted towards encouraging the consumption of green energy, and more investment in energy innovation beyond the estimated threshold will save the region from pollution and its implications. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Kuznets Curve; Green energy; Energy innovation; CO2 emission; SSA countries; Quantile-Quantile regression |
| JEL: | E10 C20 Q40 |
| Date: | 2020–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddgw:88092&r=all |
| By: | Jacques Fontanel (CESICE - Centre d'études sur la sécurité internationale et les coopérations européennes - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble) |
| Abstract: | Faced with the catastrophic effects expected from global warming, many proposals have been made to develop a Green New Deal. Jeremy Rifkin presents a complete and optimistic dossier on the possibilities of finding quick solutions. With the help of public institutions, the tipping point for the transition to a higher profitability of non-carbon energies is set for 2028. The aim is to combine the new performance of solar and wind energy with a plan to use the digital industry to optimise the electrical potential of cars, buildings, agriculture, transport and industry. A "New Green Deal" was proposed in February 2019 to the US Senate. It would aim to produce 100% of the United States' electricity from clean, renewable sources and to increase the country's energy efficiency. This will result in "locked assets" in oil and gas fields. Rifkin is therefore urging financiers to invest in clean energy right away. |
| Abstract: | Face aux effets catastrophiques attendus par le réchauffement climatique, de nombreuses propositions ont été faites pour développer un New Deal vert. Jeremy Rifkin présente un dossier complet et optimiste quant aux possibilités de trouver des solutions rapides. Avec l'aide des institutions publiques, le point de bascule du passage à une rentabilité supérieure des énergies non carbonées est établi pour 2028. Il s'agit d'allier les nouvelles performances de l'énergie solaire et éolienne à l'application d'un plan conduisant à utiliser l'industrie digitale pour optimiser le potentiel électrique des voitures, des bâtiments, de l'agriculture, des transports et de l'industrie. Un « New Green Deal » a été proposé en février 2019 au Sénat américain. Il s'agirait de produire 100% de l'électricité des Etats-Unis avec des sources renouvelables et propres et d'augmenter l'efficacité énergétique nationale. Il en résultera des « actifs bloqués » des champs pétrolières ou gazeux. Rifkin incite alors les financiers à investir tout de suite dans les énergies propres. |
| Keywords: | global warming,wind energy,electricity,solar energy,intervention de l’Etat,New Green deal,industrie digitale,réchauffement climatique,Actifs bloqués,énergie renouvelables |
| Date: | 2020–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02577489&r=all |
| By: | Gale Boyd; Matt Doolin |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates stochastic frontier energy demand functions with non-public, plant-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau to measure the energy efficiency gap and energy price elasticities in the food processing industry. The estimates are for electricity and fuel use in 4 food processing sectors, based on the disaggregation of this industry used by the National Energy Modeling System Industrial Demand Module. The estimated demand functions control for plant inputs and output, energy prices, and other observables including 6-digit NAICS industry designations. Own price elasticities range from 0.6 to -0.9 with little evidence of fuel/electricity substitution. The magnitude of the efficiency estimates is sensitive to the assumptions but consistently reveal that few plants achieve 100% efficiency. Defining a “practical level of energy efficiency” as the 95th percentile of the efficiency distributions and averaging across all the models result in a ~20% efficiency gap. However, most of the potential reductions in energy use from closing this efficiency gap are from plants that are “low hanging fruit”; 13% of the 20% potential reduction in the efficiency gap can be obtained by bringing the lower half of the efficiency distribution up to just the median level of observed performance. New plants do exhibit higher energy efficiency than existing plants which is statistically significant, but the difference is small for most of the industry; ranging from a low of 0.4% to a high of 5.7%. |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:20-18&r=all |
| By: | Sanguinetti, Angela |
| Abstract: | One of the potential consumer benefits of electric vehicles (EVs) is lower fuel and maintenance costs compared to internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Consumers tend to have difficulty recognizing these cost benefits, however, because of the complexity of comparing gasoline and electricity prices, and comparing long-term operating savings with EV purchase premiums. Online vehicle cost calculators may help consumers navigate this complexity by providing tailored cost estimates and enabling comparisons across vehicles. Of the several vehicle cost calculators available online, functionalities range widely. No existing research establishes the functionalities and features that determine the usefulness of vehicle cost calculators in promoting EV adoption. Researchers at the University of California, Davis drew upon a systematic review of vehicle cost calculators and findings from multiple user experience studies to articulate best practices for the user interface design of effective vehicle cost calculators. The researchers categorized best practices as those related to the vehicle cost calculator use cases, outputs, user experience, and user inputs. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Consumer preferences, Consumers, Electric vehicles, Energy resources, Internal combustion engines, Operating costs, User interfaces (Computer science) |
| Date: | 2020–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2xx5g6pg&r=all |
| By: | Donia Aloui; Stéphane Goutte (Cemotev - Centre d'études sur la mondialisation, les conflits, les territoires et les vulnérabilités - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines); Khaled Guesmi (PSB - Paris School of Business); Rafla Hchaichi |
| Abstract: | On 12 March 2020, the sharp fell of U.S. crude oil price to 30 dollars was explained by the outspreads of coronavirus pandemic and the OPEC's inability to reach a production quota agreement. We employ the structural VAR model with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility (TVP-SVAR model) developed by Primiceri (2005) to asses the impact of COVID-19 shocks on the energy futures markets, particularly on crude oil and natural gas S&P GS Indexes. The findings confirm that energy commodities S&P GS Indexes respond to COVID-19 shock that varying over time due to fundamentals factors as well as behavioral and psychological factors. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19,oil price war,health crisis,drop oil price,S&P GS commodities Indexes,TVP-SVAR model,crude oil,natural gas JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2020–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02613280&r=all |
| By: | Stavros Malkidis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia); Stilianos Fountas (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | In Greece, there is a widespread belief among consumers that fuel prices in the domestic market respond faster to crude oil price increases than decreases and they attribute this pricing pattern to exploitation of market power on behalf of the companies. This article attempts to investigate the issue of asymmetries in a two-stage price-adjusting mechanism able to identify the source of price asymmetries, either in the refining or in the distribution stage. The sample consists of daily data covering the period of January 2012 to November 2018 and has been split into two subsamples due to a structural break in October 2014. Employing threshold and momentum models of cointegration at the two stages linking crude oil to retail prices, we find that transmission is mostly symmetric for unleaded95 gasoline between 2012 and 2014 and asymmetric in the stage of refining for diesel. Between 2014 and 2018 asymmetry exists for both types of fuel in the refining stage, while the retail market presents symmetric pricing. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetry, Rockets and feathers, Error-correction models, Threshold cointegration, Fuel price. |
| JEL: | Q40 C32 L11 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mcd:mcddps:2020_04&r=all |
| By: | Florens Flues; Kurt van Dender |
| Abstract: | Carbon pricing helps countries steer their economies towards and along a carbon-neutral growth path. This paper considers how the design of carbon pricing instruments affects their effectiveness, efficiency and feasibility. Design choices matter both for taxes and Emissions Trading Systems (ETSs). Considering the role of carbon price stability for clean investment, the paper shows how volatile carbon prices can cause risk-averse investors to forego clean investment that they would have undertaken with more stable prices. The paper then evaluates the effectiveness and efficiency of policy instruments to stabilise carbon prices in ETSs, which tend to produce more volatile carbon prices than taxes. The paper analyses the auction reserve price in California, the carbon price support in the UK, and the market stability reserve in the EU ETS. Considering feasibility, the paper discusses the tax (or emissions) base, how revenue use can affect support from households and firms, and administrative choices. |
| JEL: | D04 D40 G11 H21 H23 H32 Q52 Q54 |
| Date: | 2020–06–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ctpaaa:48-en&r=all |
| By: | Sweder van Wijnbergen (University of Amsterdam); Rick van der Ploeg (Economics Department Oxford university); Stan Olijslagers (University of Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | CO2 pricing is essential for an efficient transition to the green economy. Despite Daniel, Litterman and Wagner (2019)’ claim that CO2 prices should decline, CO2 prices should rise over time. First, damages from global warming are proportional to economic activity and this makes CO2 prices grow at the same rate as the economy. Second, even if uncertainty about the damage ratio is gradually resolved over time, this only slows down the price rise. Third, if CCS is allowed for, the optimal CO2 price will rise before it declines but this decline does not occur until more than two centuries ahead. Fourth, damages are likely to be a very convex function of temperature which with rising temperature implies that CO2 prices must grow faster than the economy. Fifth, internalizing the social benefits of learning by doing or a shift towards technical progress in renewable energy production requires a subsidy for renewable energy, not a temporary spike in CO2 prices. Having high CO2 prices upfront is an artefact of failing to separate out renewable energy subsidies from the carbon price. Finally, efficient intertemporal allocation of policy efforts implies that a temperature cap or cap on cumulative emissions requires that CO2 prices must rise at a rate equal to the risk-adjusted interest rate, typically higher than the economic growth rate. Summing up, CO2 prices must rise at a rate at least equal to the economic growth rate and at most to the risk-adjusted interest rate. They should not decline. |
| Keywords: | CO2 prices, risk, damages |
| JEL: | H23 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2020–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20200028&r=all |
| By: | Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Xin Sheng (Lord Ashcroft International Business School, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, CM1 1SQ, UK); Renee van Eyden (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Mark E. Wohar (College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska at Omaha, 6708 Pine Street, Omaha, NE 68182, USA) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the predictive power of oil supply, demand and risk shocks over the realized volatility of intraday oil returns. Utilizing the heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility (HAR-RV) framework, we show that all shock terms on their own, and particularly financial market driven risk shocks, significantly improve the forecasting performance of the benchmark HAR-RV model, both in- and out-of-sample. Incorporating all three shocks simultaneously in the HAR-RV model yields the largest forecasting gains compared to all other variants of the HAR-RV model, consistently at short-, medium-, and long forecasting horizons. The findings highlight the predictive information captured by disentangled oil price shocks in accurately forecasting oil market volatility, offering a valuable opening for investors and corporations to monitor oil market volatility using information on traded assets at high frequency. |
| Keywords: | Oil shocks, state-level consumption, oil dependency, local projection model, impulse response functions |
| JEL: | C23 E21 Q41 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202045&r=all |
| By: | Mehmet Akif, Destek; Muhammad, Shahbaz; Ilyas, Okumus; Shawkat, Hammoudeh; Avik, Sinha |
| Abstract: | This paper re-investigates the time-varying impacts of economic growth on carbon emissions in the G-7 countries over a long history. In doing so, the historical data spanning the period from the 1800s to 2010 (as constructed) for each country is examined using the time-varying cointegration and bootstrap-rolling window estimation approach. Unlike the previous environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) studies, using this methodology gives us avenue to detect more than one, two, or more turning points for the economic growth-carbon emissions nexus. The empirical findings show that the nexus between economic growth and carbon emission seems over a long history to be M-shaped for Canada and the UK; N-shaped for France; inverted N-shaped for Germany; and invertedM-shaped (W-shaped) for Italy, Japan, and the USA. In addition, the possible validity of EKC hypothesis is examined for both the pre-1973 and post-1973 sub-periods. Based on this investigation, we found that an inverted U-shaped is confirmed only for the pre-1973 period in France, Italy, and the USA. These empirical evidences provide new insights to policy makers to improve environmental quality using economic growth as an economic tool for the long run by observing changes in the environmental impact of this growth from year to year. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Kuznets curve; Chebyshev time polynomials; Time-varying cointegration; G-7 countries |
| JEL: | Q5 Q53 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100514&r=all |
| By: | Schönheit, David; Hladik, Dirk; Hobbie, Hannes; Möst, Dominik |
| Abstract: | This paper documents ELMOD, a linear optimization model with a nodal pricing approach, covering the energy market and electricity grid of Europe. In the presented formulation, ELMOD is used for the computation of market coupling results without grid constraints and subsequent computation of congestion management, i.e. redispatch and curtailment. Furthermore, flow-based market coupling is implemented, as the EU-stipulated calculation method for cross-border trading capacities. A short case study presents exemplary results for market outcomes based on flow-based market coupling, i.e. n-1 secure trading domains, import-export balances, and zonal prices, as well as necessary congestion management measures. |
| Keywords: | energy system modeling,electricity grid models,linear optimization,congestion management,flow-based market coupling,n-1 security criterion |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:217278&r=all |
| By: | Sharma, Rachit; Hossain, Md Mahbub |
| Abstract: | One in every two Indian households continues to rely on highly-polluting solid fuels to meet their cooking and other energy demands. Recent evidence demonstrates that people suffering from preconditions associated with air pollution and those with short-term exposures to air pollution are highly susceptible to the novel Coronavirus infection and associated morbidity and mortality. And as for many Indians, especially those with pre-existing health conditions and the elderly, home-based isolation and confinement practices are likely to continue to prevent the infection, exposure to household air pollution may render such population groups more susceptible to COVID-19. This warrants caution and demands immediate and specific actions; which are discussed. To protect the health and wellbeing of millions of Indians, during the COVID-19 crisis and beyond, addressing household air pollution should be prioritized and aligned with long term environmental health initiatives in the country. |
| Date: | 2020–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:4ghde&r=all |
| By: | Raphaël-Homayoun Boroumand (City University London); Stéphane Goutte (Cemotev - Centre d'études sur la mondialisation, les conflits, les territoires et les vulnérabilités - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines); Thomas Porcher (PSB - Paris School of Business); Thomas Stocker (Physics Institute, University of Bern, National Centre of Competence in Research PlanetS, Bern, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | The principle of "common but differentiated responsibility", a key concept of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), acknowledges the conditions for a generally acceptable and differentiated pricing mechanism on carbon emissions. With reference to this principle, carbon price determination has become one of the necessary instruments to limit global warming to a maximum of 2 °C. In this article, we propose the allocation of a carbon price per country based on the Human Development Index (HDI) and 0 2 emissions per capita. We demonstrate that under a multilateral framework, the price of carbon would be fixed according to a reference price depending on the HDI and 0 2 emissions. For example, if a country emits more than the amount allocated to its HDI level, it will have to pay a higher price than the established reference price, and vice versa. Reference prices as functions of HDIs and emissions will be estimated based on a trajectory to reach the target goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions. A key element of our proposed scheme is that it generates national revenue allowing high-emitting countries a rapid decarbonization and developing countries (with generally lower emissions) accelerated development and early implementation of green infrastructures. Our research goal is related to documenting the benefits of a differentiated and progressive carbon pricing mechanism to ease intergovernmental cooperation. |
| Keywords: | carbon,climate,price,market,tax |
| Date: | 2020–05–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02613281&r=all |
| By: | Fabian St\"ockl; Wolf-Peter Schill; Alexander Zerrahn |
| Abstract: | Green hydrogen can decarbonize transportation, but also help to integrate variable renewable energy sources if its production is sufficiently flexible in time. Using an open-source co-optimization model of the power sector and four supply chains for hydrogen at filling stations, we find a trade-off between energy efficiency and temporal flexibility: for lower shares of renewables and hydrogen, more energy-efficient decentralized electrolysis is optimal. For higher shares of renewables and/or hydrogen, more flexible centralized hydrogen supply chains gain importance as they allow disentangling hydrogen production from demand via storage. Liquid hydrogen emerges as particularly beneficial, followed by liquid organic hydrogen carriers and gaseous hydrogen. Centralized hydrogen supply chains can deliver substantial power sector co-benefits, mainly through reduced renewable surplus generation. Energy modelers and system planners should consider the flexibility characteristics of hydrogen supply chains in more detail when assessing the role of green hydrogen in future energy transition scenarios. |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2005.03464&r=all |
| By: | Shiro Takeda (Kyoto Sangyo University, Motoyama, Kamigamo, Kita-Ku, Kyoto City, 603-8555, Japan. Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management (RIEEM), Waseda University, 1?6?1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169?8050, Japan.); Toshi H. Arimura (Faculty of Political Science and Economics & Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management (RIEEM), Waseda University, 1-6-1 Nishiwaseda, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8050, Japan.) |
| Abstract: | The Japanese government plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. However, it is not yet clear which policy measures the government will adopt to achieve this goal. In this regard, environmental tax reform, which is the combination of carbon regulation and the reduction of existing distortionary taxes, has attracted much attention. This paper examines the effects of environmental tax reform in Japan. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, we analyze the quantitative impacts of environmental tax reform and clarify which types of environmental tax reform are the most desirable. In the simulation, we introduce a carbon tax and consider the following five scenarios for the use of carbon tax revenue: 1) a lump-sum rebate to the household, 2) a cut in social security contributions, 3) a cut in income taxes, 4) a cut in corporate taxes and 5) a cut in consumption taxes. The first scenario is a pure carbon tax, and the other four scenarios are types of environmental tax reform. Our CGE simulation shows that environmental tax reform tends to generate more desirable impacts than the pure carbon tax by improving welfare or increasing GDP while reducing emissions (double dividend). In particular, we show that a cut in corporate taxes leads to the most desirable policy in terms of GDP and national income. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Tax; Environmental Tax Reform; Double Dividend; Computable General Equilibrium; Climate Change; Tax Interaction Effects; Paris Agreement |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 C68 H23 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:was:dpaper:2002&r=all |
| By: | Sofronis Clerides; Styliani-Iris Krokida; Neophytos Lambertides; Dimitris Tsouknidis |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of oil supply and demand shocks on gasoline prices and consumer sentiment in the Euro Area. Results reveal that aggregate consumer sentiment and its components deteriorate notably as a response to positive shocks to real gasoline prices. On the contrary, positive oil-specific demand shocks do not trigger a deterioration of consumer sentiment. In other words, consumer sentiment is affected primarily by unexpected changes in gasoline prices at the pump rather than unexpected changes in crude oil prices. The analysis is further refined to analyze the effects of these shocks to six subcomponents of consumer sentiment. |
| Keywords: | oil supply and demand shocks; gasoline prices; consumer sentiment; euro area. |
| JEL: | G10 G11 G12 G14 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucy:cypeua:05-2020&r=all |
| By: | Tim Janke; Florian Steinke |
| Abstract: | The reliable estimation of forecast uncertainties is crucial for risk-sensitive optimal decision making. In this paper, we propose implicit generative ensemble post-processing, a novel framework for multivariate probabilistic electricity price forecasting. We use a likelihood-free implicit generative model based on an ensemble of point forecasting models to generate multivariate electricity price scenarios with a coherent dependency structure as a representation of the joint predictive distribution. Our ensemble post-processing method outperforms well-established model combination benchmarks. This is demonstrated on a data set from the German day-ahead market. As our method works on top of an ensemble of domain-specific expert models, it can readily be deployed to other forecasting tasks. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2005.13417&r=all |
| By: | Roberto Baviera; Giuseppe Messuti |
| Abstract: | Probabilistic forecasting of power consumption in a middle-term horizon (months to a year) is a main challenge in the energy sector. It plays a key role in planning future generation plants and transmission grid. We propose a new model that incorporates trend and seasonality features as in traditional time-series analysis and weather conditions as explicative variables in a parsimonious machine learning approach, known as Gaussian Process. Applying to a daily power consumption dataset in North East England provided by one of the largest energy suppliers, we obtain promising results in Out-of-Sample density forecasts up to one year, even using a small dataset, with only a two-year In-Sample data. In order to verify the quality of the achieved power consumption probabilistic forecast we consider measures that are common in the energy sector as pinball loss and Winkler score and backtesting conditional and unconditional tests, standard in the banking sector after the introduction of Basel II Accords. |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2005.13005&r=all |
| By: | Chiara Falduto (OECD); Marcia Rocha (OECD) |
| Abstract: | The Paris Agreement and its accompanying decision call for Parties to strive to formulate mid-century communicate long-term low-greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS) by 2020. Moreover, the Paris decision requests Parties to communicate a new or updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) by 2020. This paper finds that there is potential for these long-term strategies to guide short- and mid-term action and feed into future NDC submissions. This paper highlights that long-term strategies can substantially shape countries’ short- and mid-term priorities, policies and investment pipelines, leading to significant cost reductions in the long-term. Linking NDCs to long-term mitigation strategies will be key in ensuring efficient use of resources, particularly crucial for responding to climate change amidst and following the COVID-19 crisis. |
| JEL: | F53 Q54 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020–06–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaab:2020/02-en&r=all |
| By: | Carozzi, Felipe (London School of Economics); Roth, Sefi (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the effect of urban density on the exposure of city dwellers to air pollution using data from the United States urban system. Exploiting geological features to instrument for density, we find an economically and statistically significant pollution-density elasticity of 0.13. We also assess the health implications of these estimates and find that doubling density in an average city increases annual mortality costs by $630 per capita. Our findings highlight the possible trade-off between reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, which is associated with denser cities according to prior research, and preserving local air quality and human health within cities. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, cities, density, health |
| JEL: | Q53 R11 I10 |
| Date: | 2020–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13191&r=all |
| By: | Kristin Ranestad (Lund University); Paul Richard Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR) |
| Abstract: | Natural resources, especially energy resources, are often considered vital to the process of economic development, with the availability of coal considered central for the nineteenth century. Clearly, however, although coal might have spurred economic development, development might also have spurred the discovery and use of coal. To shed light on this, we suggest that the case of resource poor Denmark, which spent centuries looking for coal, is illuminating. Specifically, we emphasize that the process of looking for coal and the creation of a natural resource industry in itself is important beyond the obvious dichotomy of haves and have-nots. We seek to understand this process and find that prices proved an important stimulus to coal surveys. |
| Keywords: | Coal, Denmark, natural resources, mining |
| JEL: | N55 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0183&r=all |
| By: | Evan M. Herrnstadt; Ryan Kellogg; Eric Lewis |
| Abstract: | Oil and gas leases between mineral owners and extraction firms ubiquitously include royalty and primary term clauses. The royalty denotes the share of revenue that is paid to the mineral owner, and the primary term specifies the date by which the firm must complete a well, lest it lose the lease. Using data from the Louisiana shale boom, we first show that wells' drilling timing is substantially bunched just before lease expiration, raising the question of why leases include development deadlines that distort drilling decisions. We then develop a contracting model in which mineral owners face firms with private information and have the ability to contract on both realized revenue and drilling timing. We show that primary terms can increase both the owner's expected revenue and total surplus because they counteract the delay incentives imposed by the royalty. |
| JEL: | D82 D86 L24 L71 Q35 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27165&r=all |
| By: | Rutzer, Christian (University of Basel); Niggli, Matthias (University of Basel) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we use a data-driven approach to predict the "green potential" of ISCO occupations based on their corresponding skills. With this information, we can investigate the relationship between environmental regulations and occupation-level employment in the manufacturing sector of 19 European countries for the period 1992-2010. Our empirical results highlight heterogeneous occupational employment changes in response to an increase in environmental policy stringency. More specically, we nd a decrease in labor demand for occupations with relatively low green potential and an increase for occupations with relatively high green potential. Thus, at least in the short term, greening the economy may create winners and losers across occupations and countries. |
| Keywords: | environmental regulation, green transition, labor market, supervised learning |
| JEL: | J23 J24 Q52 |
| Date: | 2020–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2020/09&r=all |
| By: | Hardman, Scott PhD |
| Abstract: | Partially automated battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are being sold to and used by consumers. Estimates indicate that as of the end of 2019, there were over 700,000 Partially Automated Tesla Vehicles—the subject of this study—on the roads globally. Despite this, little research has been done to understand how they may be changing travel behavior. In this study, qualitative interviews with 36 users of Tesla BEVs with Autopilot were conducted. The goal of this was to understand how Autopilot is used, user experiences of the system, and whether the system has any impact on drivers’ travel behavior. The focus of the last of these aims was to determine whether Autopilot could cause or was causing an increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) among the study participants. Results from the interviews showed that partial automation leads to consumers travelling by car more and being more willing to drive in congested traffic. These changes are due to increased comfort, reduced stress, and increased relaxation due to the partial automation system, and because of the lower running costs of a BEV. The results also point to a need for further research of partially automated vehicles that are already on the market, as 11 of 17 reasons for increased VMT that have been identified in modeling studies of fully automated vehicles (not yet commercially available) applied to users of Autopilot. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Level 2 driving automation, autonomous vehicles, vehicle miles traveled, travel behavior, electric vehicles, interviews |
| Date: | 2020–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8p0351m1&r=all |
| By: | Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo; Hirs-Garzon, Jorge; Uribe, Jorge M. |
| Abstract: | We explore the higher order linkages between energy commodity markets and global financial markets. Our focus is on spillovers of realized good and bad volatilities, realized signed jump variation, realized skewness and realized kurtosis. Our results show that the measurement of risk spillovers is sensitive to the definition of risk used in their construction. Asymmetries between good and bad volatility transmission matter, and results when jumps and higher order risk measures are considered are substantially different from those obtained when traditional volatility measures are used. We provide empirical support for theoretical asset pricing models that conduct the optimization required for portfolio balancing in the mean-variance-skewness space by showing that risk diversification opportunities vary greatly when one considers variance or skewness as the fundamental proxy for risk. |
| Keywords: | Energy commodity markets; Risk spillover; Higher order risk measure; LASSO methods |
| JEL: | E44 F31 G01 G12 G15 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rie:riecdt:46&r=all |
| By: | Magri, José Lourival; Cusatis, Mario Wilson |
| Abstract: | Idealizada como um Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDL), a Unidade de Cogeração Lages (UCLA), localizada na Serra Catarinense e pertencente à ENGIE Brasil Energia, tem a redução de emissões entre seus principais propósitos, desde o início de suas operações, em 2003. Ao utilizar resíduos da indústria madeireira local para gerar energia elétrica e vapor, a Usina deu novo destino a um material com grande potencial de emissão de metano —gás de efeito estufa (GEE) até 25 vezes mais potente que o dióxido de carbono (CO2). Assim, em uma década, a operação da UCLA evitou a emissão de, aproximadamente, 2,5 milhões de toneladas de CO2 equivalentes. Adicionalmente, a Companhia buscou ampliar o impacto positivo do empreendimento, destinando as cinzas de biomassa para uso na agricultura e, em um projeto experimental, na compostagem de rejeitos orgânicos domésticos. Os resultados obtidos confirmam que o investimento em iniciativas de economia circular guarda grande potencial transformador em direção ao desenvolvimento sustentável. |
| Keywords: | RECURSOS ENERGETICOS, ENERGIA SOSTENIBLE, ENERGIA DE LA BIOMASA, DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, ENERGY RESOURCES, SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, BIOMASS ENERGY, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT |
| Date: | 2020–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:45594&r=all |
| By: | Carlsson, Fredrik (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Kataria, Mitesh (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Krupnick, Alan (Resources for the Future,); Elina, Lampi (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Åsa, Löfgren (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Qin, Ping (School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China); Thomas, Sterner (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Yang, Xiaojun (School of Public Policy and Administration, Xi'an Jiaotong University) |
| Abstract: | We examine how attitudes and willingness to pay (WTP) for climate policies have changed over the past decade in the United States, China, and Sweden. All three countries exhibit an increased willingness to pay for climate mitigation. Ten years ago, Sweden had a larger fraction of believers in anthropogenic climate change and a higher WTP for mitigation, but today the national averages are more similar. Although we find convergence in public support for climate policy across countries, there is considerable divergence in climate attitudes and preferences within countries, particularly the United States. Political polarization explains part of this divergence. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; willingness to pay; climate policy attitudes; political polarization; multi-country; China; United States; Sweden |
| JEL: | Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0786&r=all |
| By: | Marcia Rocha (OECD); Jane Ellis (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Common Tabular Formats (CTFs) for the reporting of information necessary to track progress towards Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement, including on the use of cooperative approaches, are to be adopted by COP26. This paper explores concrete examples and worked examples for the structured summary of information to track progress, including on information on cooperative approaches. This paper finds that the structured summary would be more likely to meet the principles established in the Paris Agreement and related decisions, including the Modalities, Procedures and Guidelines (MPGs), if it was separated into CTFs for reporting on tracking progress indicators and a CTF for reporting on the use of cooperative approaches. |
| JEL: | F53 Q54 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020–06–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaab:2020/01-en&r=all |
| By: | Magaji Abba (Faculty of Management Sciences, A.T.B.U. Bauchi); Muhammad Auwal Kabir (Faculty of Social and Management Sciences, Bauchi State University, Gadau); Abdulkadir Abubakar (Faculty of Social and Management Sciences, Bauchi State University, Gadau) |
| Abstract: | The paper examined the relationship between environmental disclosure and cost of capital structure financing of the Nigerian listed companies. This is due to a concern about the environmental behaviour of the companies that result in stakeholders? interest in environmental disclosure. Though the disclosure is voluntary (to a certain extent) its inadequacy creates information asymmetric and risk that affect the cost of capital structure financing. The study was on listed Nigerian companies whose activities have an environmental repercussion. Where the data was gathered from content analysis of the companies? annual reports. A regression analysis based on the pool, 2SLS and 3SLS were made to improve the robustness of the results. It provides evidence in support of companies? stakeholders? engagement through disclosure to manage the cost of capital structure financing. The disclosure level effect on the cost of capital structure will help curtailed negative environmental activities of the companies. However, the sample size is small due to the limited number of publically listed companies in the Nigerian. Additionally, the data is cross-sectional which may not be stable over time and across industries level. Recommend for further study that will look into financial stakeholders? perception about the environmental disclosure and its value relevance in financing decision. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Disclosure; Information Asymmetric; Disclosure Quality; Cost of Capital Structure Financing; Nigerian Listed Companies |
| JEL: | M41 Q56 E22 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:ibmpro:10112442&r=all |
| By: | Amenta, Nina; Sanguinetti, Angela |
| Abstract: | This policy brief summarizes findings and policy implications from a study in which researchers at the University of California, Davis, surveyed over 450 UC Davis faculty, researchers, and staff, and asked them to choose among hypothetical flight options for domestic and international university-related business trips. The hypothetical flight options were developed using actual data on UC Davis employee air travel and available flights. The survey prominently presented emissions estimates for different flight alternatives alongside price, with the lowest-emissions option labeled “greenest flight”. Researchers then estimated the effect that changing the current UC Davis flight-search interface to prominently display emissions, label the greenest flight choice, and present an alternative departure airport could have on the emissions and costs of business-related air travel. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Air travel, Airlines, Carbon dioxide, Computer reservation systems, Consumer behavior, Pollutants, Reservations, Travel behavior |
| Date: | 2020–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6nx526w9&r=all |
| By: | Olivier Damette (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UL - Université de Lorraine - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg); Stéphane Goutte (Cemotev - Centre d'études sur la mondialisation, les conflits, les territoires et les vulnérabilités - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines) |
| Abstract: | Faced with the global pandemic of Covid-19, we need to better understand the links between meteorological factors, air quality and the virus. In the vein of a recent empirical literature, we reassess the impact of weather factors like temperatures, humidity and air quality indicators on Covid-19 daily cases in China both for Wuhan and Beijing. Using a consistent number of observations (104), we compute, for the first time, correlations but also Granger causality and above all, a spectral analysis using Wavelet methods. Our results go further previous studies and reveal the complexity of the studied relationships when both time and frequency domains are taken into account. Wavelet analysis enables us to go further usual correlations analysis. Though negative humidity impact on Covid-19 cases was expected to be relatively clear regarding previous literature based on correlations, we do not find evidence of such a result. The controversial effect of warmer temperatures on the Covid-19, often difficult to identify or sometimes identified as surprisingly positive, can negatively emerge via Wavelet analysis for some periods only. This result is however clear-cut for the Hubei Province but for the Beijing one. Finally, our results reveal a bi-directional causality between air quality and the number of infected people. Short-run causality from Covid-19 to air quality (better induced air quality) via lockdown policies disappear in a medium-run and turns to become a significant causal link from induced air quality improvement to Covid-19 daily cases (reduction of infected people). |
| Date: | 2020–05–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02629139&r=all |
| By: | Dilger, Alexander |
| Abstract: | Naturwissenschaftliche Fragen rund um den Klimawandel sind von Naturwissenschaftlern zu beantworten. Ökonomen und Wirtschaftsethiker können jedoch dazu beitragen, den Klimawandel und mögliche Gegenmaßnahmen zu bewerten. Dabei ist ein einheitlicher Preis für die Emission von Treibhausgasen zu empfehlen. Es gibt ein globales Kollektivgutproblem, welches sich am ehesten durch die Vereinbarung einer Zertifikatslösung überwinden lässt. Außerdem sollten die Forschung und Entwicklung gefördert werden. |
| JEL: | A11 A12 D61 D70 D81 F64 H23 H41 H87 P18 Q40 Q51 Q54 Q55 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:umiodp:52020&r=all |
| By: | Basu, Arnab K. (Cornell University); Byambasuren, Tsenguunjav (Cornell University); Chau, Nancy H. (Cornell University); Khanna, Neha (University of Birmingham) |
| Abstract: | Indoor air pollution (IAP)–predominantly from the use of solid fuel for cooking–is a global health threat, particularly for women and young children, and one of the leading causes of infant deaths worldwide in developing countries. We estimate the causal effect of cooking fuel choice on infant mortality in India, focusing on children under five years of age using pooled cross-sectional data from the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) over the period 1992–2016. To address the potential endogeneity in the relationship between fuel choice and mortality, we instrument for cooking fuel choice using a speed of change in forest cover and ownership status of agricultural land, which induce significant variations in fuel type. We find that cooking fuel choice has a statistically significant impact on under-five and neonatal mortality, raising the mortality risk by 4.9 percent. We also find that the past literature has overestimated the association between under-five mortality and polluting fuel use by about 0.6 percentage points or equivalently, 152,000 deaths per year nationally. Our result is robust to a set of alternative specifications with the inclusion of various controls and different estimation strategies. |
| Keywords: | cooking fuel, indoor air pollution, infant mortality, India |
| JEL: | I18 N35 Q53 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13295&r=all |
| By: | Camille Blaudin de Thé (PSE - Paris School of Economics); Benjamin Carantino (PSE - Paris School of Economics); Miren Lafourcade (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics, RITM - Réseaux Innovation Territoires et Mondialisation - UP11 - Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of urban form on household fuel consumption and car emissions in France. We in particular analyze three features of cities commonly referred to as the "3 D's" (Cervero & Kockelman 1997): Density, Design and Diversity. Individual data allow us to identify the effects of urban form and the spatial sorting of households on emissions. We also use instrumental variables to control for other endogeneity issues. Our results suggest that, by choosing to live at the fringe of a metropolitan area instead of the city center, a representative household would consume approximately six extra tanks of fuel per year. More generally, doubling residential Density would result in an annual saving of approximately two tanks per household. However, larger gains would result from better urban Design (job-housing central-ization, improved rail/bus routes to central business districts, reduced pressure for road construction and a less fragmented built environment in urban areas) while improved Diversity (the concentration of various local amenities such as shops and public facilities) can also help lower fuel consumption. Another important finding is that the relationship between the metropolitan population and car emissions in France is bell-shaped, contrary to that in the US, suggesting that small cities do compensate for their lack of Density/Diversity by environmentally-friendly Design. |
| Keywords: | Sprawl,car emissions,CO 2 footprint,driving,public transport,smart cities |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02572893&r=all |
| By: | Carvalho, Rogério Atem de |
| Abstract: | O presente capítulo estuda o caso do modelo de ação do Polo de Inovação Campos dos Goytacazes (PICG), do Instituto Federal Fluminense, dedicado à Pesquisa, Desenvolvimento e Inovação e à Extensão Tecnológica e voltado à sustentabilidade com impacto no contexto econômico, social e geográfico de sua área de influência. Com 12 anos de existência, o PICG desenvolve capacidades humanas e competências tecnológicas e inovativas, como por exemplo tecnologias inovadoras para a Produção Mais Limpa junto ao setor produtivo, ao mesmo tempo em que vem construindo uma tradição de colaboração com as comunidades locais e regionais na promoção de iniciativas de educação ambiental e desenvolvimento sustentável. O estudo discute, à luz da abordagem do Big Push para a Sustentabilidade, como é possível coordenar investimentos sustentáveis em inovação ao integrar e articular financiamento público e privado, ação local e nacional, e projetos simples e de alta complexidade, em um modelo que se baseia na sustentabilidade como meio, fim e objetivo permanente a ser atingido. |
| Keywords: | DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, INNOVACIONES TECNOLOGICAS, PRODUCCION MAS LIMPIA, ENERGIA SOSTENIBLE, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS, CLEANER PRODUCTION, SUSTAINABLE ENERGY |
| Date: | 2020–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:45595&r=all |
| By: | Alex Dickson (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Iain A Mackenzie (School of Economics, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia, 4072.) |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the cost effectiveness of cap-and-trade markets in the presence of both political and market distortions. We create a model where dominant firms have the ability to rent seek for a share of pollution permits as well as influence the market equilibrium with their choice of permit exchange because of market power. We derive the subgame-perfect equilibrium and show the interaction of these two distortions has consequences for the resulting allocative efficiency of the market. We find that if the dominant rent-seeking firms are all permit buyers (or a composition of buyers and sellers) then allocative efficiency is improved relative to the case without rent seeking; by contrast, if the dominant rent-seeking firms are all permit ellers then allocative efficiency reduces. |
| Keywords: | pollution market, market power, rent-seeking. |
| JEL: | E65 G12 G18 P16 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:str:wpaper:2001&r=all |
| By: | Hung Do; Rabindra Nepal; Russell Smyth |
| Abstract: | We examine the risk transmission mechanisms in the interconnected Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). We illustrate that the transmission of extreme events in terms of their magnitude (via skewness) and the likelihood of their occurrence (via kurtosis) should be considered when promoting NEM interconnectedness. Our empirical findings suggest that interconnectedness costs can be limited by providing sufficient transmission capacities as it can expand generation capacity. Our results suggest that a one percent increase in NEM generation capacity can decrease the transmission of these risks by between 0.9 percent and 1.7 percent, depending on the moment of the electricity return distribution. |
| Keywords: | Australian National Electricity Market, Higher moments, Spillovers, Interconnectedness, Long memory |
| JEL: | L94 L51 C32 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2020-49&r=all |
| By: | Schleich, Joachim; Lehmann, Sascha; Cludius, Johanna; Abrell, Jan; Betz, Regina Annette; Pinkse, Jonatan |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s072020&r=all |
| By: | Rahmani, Fatemeh; Quispe, David; Agarwal, Tanushree; Barzegaran, Mohammadreza |
| Abstract: | Significant improvements of the DC-DC converters create the straightforward method to control the speed of the DC motor. One of the important DC motors is the Brushless DC motor which is utilized in various electrical fields. This paper focuses on the control at different speeds for a Brushless DC motor. In order to make the proper voltage to run the motor, two DC-DC converters (Boost and Buck) are tested using two different switches (GaN and SiC transistors). After making the Simulink model and connecting to dSPACE to send the suitable pulse to the transistor of the converter, the DC motor starts working by applying the DC voltage to the converter. This process includes modeling in MATLAB Simulink, dSPACE, and an experimental setup to run the DC motor. Furthermore, the performance of GaN and SiC switches in Boost and Buck converters are compared to each other in this project in terms of output parameters, efficiency, and providing the accurate speed for DC motor. |
| Keywords: | Boost converter, Brushless DC motor, Buck converter, GaN transistor, SiC transistor. |
| JEL: | Q16 Q55 R15 |
| Date: | 2020–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:100461&r=all |
| By: | Rui Dong (University of China); Raymond Fisman (Boston University); Yongxiang Wang (University of Southern California); Nianhang Xu (Renmin University of China) |
| Abstract: | We document a negative relation between air pollution during corporate site visits by investment analysts and subsequent earnings forecasts. After accounting for analyst, weather , and firm characteristics, an extreme worsening of air quality from “good/excellent†to “severely polluted†is associated with a more than 1 percentage point lower profit forecast, relative to realized profits. We explore heterogeneity in the pollution-forecast relation to understand better the underlying mechanism. Pollution only affects forecasts that are announced in the weeks immediately following a visit, indicating that mood likely plays a role, and the effect of pollution is less pronounced when analysts from different brokerages visit on the same date, suggesting a debiasing effect of multiple perspectives. Finally, there is suggestive evidence of adaptability to environmental circumstances – forecasts from analysts based in high pollution cities are relatively unaffected by site visit pollution. |
| Keywords: | Pollution; Forecasting bias; Investment analysts; Adaptation |
| JEL: | D91 Q5 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bos:iedwpr:dp-345&r=all |
| By: | Wang, Dandan; Escribano Saez, Alvaro |
| Abstract: | The use of machine learning (ML) models has been shown to have advantages over alternative and more traditional time series models in the presence of big data. One of the most successful ML forecasting procedures is the Random Forest (RF) machine learning algorithm. In this paper we propose a mixed RF approach for modeling departures from linearity, instead of starting with a completely nonlinear or nonparametric model. The methodology is applied to the weekly forecasts of gasoline prices that are cointegrated with international oil prices and exchange rates. The question of interest is whether gasoline prices react asymmetrically to increases in oil prices rather than to decreases in oil prices, the "rockets and feathers" hypothesis. In this literature most authors estimate parametric nonlinear error correction models using nonlinear least squares. Recent specifications for nonlinear error correction models include threshold autoregressive models (TAR), double threshold error correction models (ECM) or double threshold smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models. In this paper, we describe the econometric methodology that combines linear dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models with cointegrated variables with added nonlinear components, or price asymmetries, estimated by the powerful tool of RF. We apply our mixed RF specification strategy to weekly prices of the Spanish gasoline market from 2010 to 2019. We show that the new mixed RF error correction model has important advantages over competing parametric and nonparametric models, in terms of the generality of model specification, estimation and forecasting. |
| Keywords: | Mixed Random Forest; Random Forest; Machine Learning; Nonlinear Error Correction; Cointegration; Rockets And Feathers Hypothesis; Forecasting Gasoline Prices |
| JEL: | L71 L13 D43 C53 C52 C24 B23 |
| Date: | 2020–06–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:30557&r=all |