nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2020‒05‒25
34 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. The moderating role of green energy and energy-innovation in environmental kuznets: Insights from quantile-quantile analysis. By Hammed, Oluwaseyi Musibau; Yanotti, Maria; Vespignani, Joaquin; Nepal, Rabindra
  2. How Renewable Energy Consumption Contribute to Environmental Quality? The Role of Education in OECD Countries By Zafar, Muhammad Wasif; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Sinha, Avik; Sengupta, Tuhin; Qin, Quande
  3. The effects of tourism and globalization over environmental degradation in developed countries By Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel; Driha, Oana M.; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Sinha, Avik
  4. W(h)ither U.S. Crude Oil Production? By Bryon Higgins; Matthew Higgins; Thomas Klitgaard
  5. Mercury-related health benefits from retrofitting coal-fired power plants in China By Jiashuo Li; Sili Zhou; Wendong Wei; Jianchuan Qi; Yumeng Li; Bin Chen; Ning Zhang; Dabo Guan; Haoqi Qian; Xiaohui Wu; Jiawen Miao; Long Chen; Sai Liang; Kuishuang Feng
  6. Exploring options to measure the climate consistency of real economy investments: The transport sector in Latvia By Alexander Dobrinevski; Raphaël Jachnik
  7. Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions By Christiane Baumeister; Dimitris Korobilis; Thomas K. Lee
  8. The 2018 Reform of EU ETS: Consequences for Project Appraisal By Johansson, Per-Olov
  9. The Labor Impact of Coal Phase Down Scenarios in Chile By Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Feng, Kuishuang
  10. Climate Policy in an Unequal World: Assessing the Cost of Risk on Vulnerable Households By Malafry, Laurence; Soares Brinca, Pedro
  11. Reviewing the Market Stability Reserve in light of more ambitious EU ETS emission targets By Osorio, Sebastian; Tietjen, Oliver; Pahle, Michael; Pietzcker, Robert; Edenhofer, Ottmar
  12. From Subsidy to Sustainability By World Bank
  13. The Environmental Bias of Trade Policy By Joseph S. Shapiro
  14. Environmental fiscal reform and the possibility of triple dividend in European and non-European countries: evidence from a meta-regression analysis By Maxim, Maruf Rahman
  15. Compliance with the EU Waste Hierarchy: It is a matter of stringency, enforcement … and time! By Egüez, Alejandro
  16. Evaluation of Lithium-Ion Battery Cell Value Chain By Sharova, Varvara; Wolff, Paul; Konersmann, Benedikt; Ferstl, Ferdinand; Stanek, Robert; Hackmann, Markus
  17. Energy, uncertainty, and entrepreneurship: John D Rockefeller’s sequential approach to transaction costs management in the early oil industry By Bolanos, Jose A.
  18. (Mis)allocation of Renewable Energy Sources By Lamp, Stefan; Samano, Mario
  19. The Welfare Effects of Persuasion and Taxation: Theory and Evidence from the Field By Matthias Rodemeier; Andreas Löschel
  20. Economic Effects of Regional Energy System Transformations: An Application to the Bavarian Oberland Region By Ana Maria Montoya Gómez; Marie-Theres von Schickfus; Markus Zimmer
  21. Buildings’ Energy Efficiency and the Probability of Mortgage Default: The Dutch Case By Monica Billio; Michele Costola; Loriana Pelizzon; Max Riedel
  22. Welfare and Fiscal Implications from Increased Gasoline Prices in the Islamic Republic of Iran By Atamanov,Aziz; Mostafavi Dehzooei,Mohammadhadi; Wai-Poi,Matthew Grant
  23. CBO's Oil Price Forecasting Record: Working Paper 2020-03 By Ron Gecan
  24. Price and network dynamics in the European carbon market By Andreas Karpf; Antoine Mandel; Stefano Battiston
  25. Analyzing Technology-Emissions Association in Top-10 Polluted MENA Countries: How to Ascertain Sustainable Development by Quantile Modeling Approach By Sinha, Avik; Shah, Muhammad Ibrahim; Sengupta, Tuhin; Jiao, Zhilun
  26. The redistributive effects of carbon taxation in France By Thomas Douenne
  27. Scenario Analysis and the Economic and Financial Risks from Climate Change By Erik Ens; Craig Johnston
  28. From the Entrepreneurial to the Ossified Economy: Evidence, Explanations and a New Perspective By Naudé, Wim
  29. Did COVID-19 Improve Air Quality Near Hubei? By Douglas Almond; Xinming Du; Shuang Zhang
  30. Electricity and Firm Productivity: A General-Equilibrium Approach By Stephie Fried; David Lagakos
  31. Karakuri - ein neuer Baustein der schlanken Produktion By Ahrens, Volker
  32. The Carbon 'Carprint' of Suburbanization: New Evidence from French Cities * By Camille Blaudin de Thé; Benjamin Carantino; Miren Lafourcade
  33. Roadmap Energiewende für Betriebsräte. Von re-aktiv zu pro-aktiv – vier Szenarien By Anhelm, Fritz Erich; Tuttlies, Iris
  34. Les effets redistributifs de la fiscalité carbone en France By Thomas Douenne

  1. By: Hammed, Oluwaseyi Musibau (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania); Yanotti, Maria (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania); Vespignani, Joaquin (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania); Nepal, Rabindra (School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, University of Wollongong, Australia)
    Abstract: Background. The recent environmental challenges in Africa emanated from global warming, human activity, limited access to electricity, and over-exploitation of natural resources, have contributed to the growth of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the region. Objective. This paper empirically investigates the moderating role of green energy consumption and energy innovation in the environmental Kuznets’ curve for the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region using data spanning from 1980 to 2018. Methods. A sample of 45 SSA countries for the period between 1980-2018 was studied. To solve for potential heteroscedasticity and endogeneity issues, we performed 2sls and panel quantile regression to give inference at various quantiles. Discussion. Empirical results confirm that green energy, energy innovation and natural resource abundance mitigate pollution in the SSA region. Besides, a threshold effect of energy innovation is estimated, which indicates the amount of energy innovation that SSA would require to reduce environment degradation. Our threshold model found that atleast 54 per cent of population need access to energy innovation before the region could be safe from environmental degradation. Conclusions. We conclude that investment in green energy, energy innovation, and conservation of natural resources will help to mitigate environmental degradation in SSA in the long run. Policies should be targeted towards encouraging the consumption of green energy, and more investment in energy innovation beyond the estimated threshold will save the region from pollution and its implications. Contribution. This study has contributed to the existing studies in different ways. This is the first study to explore the impact of green energy and energy innovation in SSA. We contribute to this line of research by implementing quantile techniques to examine the role of green energy and energy innovation in the environmental Kuznets’ hypothesis. In addition, our threshold estimation provides practical implications for policy applications. a more important driver during the disbandment of OPEC. Finally, we find that these newly identified shocks have distinct consequences for the U.S. economy: precautionary demand shocks reduce real GDP, while speculative demand shocks cause inflation.
    Keywords: environmental kuznets curve, green energy, energy innovation, CO2 emission, SSA countries, and quantile-quantile regression.
    Date: 2020
  2. By: Zafar, Muhammad Wasif; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Sinha, Avik; Sengupta, Tuhin; Qin, Quande
    Abstract: Designing a comprehensive policy framework for ascertaining sustainable development is a problem faced by most of the countries around the globe, and the developed nations are no exception to that. Environmental awareness-oriented policy design for achieving sustainable development goals is a challenge for the developed nations, and there lies the contribution of this study. This study analyzes the impact of renewable energy on carbon emissions, in presence of education, natural resource abundance, foreign direct investment, and economic growth for the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries over the period of 1990-2015. Second generation methodologies are adapted for the empirical estimation. The results show the stimulating role of renewable energy consumption in shaping environmental quality. Education declines carbon emissions. Natural resource abundance and foreign direct investment deteriorate environmental quality. Moreover, the time series individual country analysis also confirms that renewable energy has a positive impact on economic growth. The heterogeneous causality analysis reveals the feedback effect, i.e., bidirectional causal associations among carbon emissions, education, and renewable energy consumption. This empirical evidence suggests that countries should increase investment in education and renewable energy sectors and plan for research and development in renewable energy for ensuring environmental sustainability.
    Keywords: Renewable Energy; Education; Economic Growth; OECD
    JEL: Q5
    Date: 2020–05–01
  3. By: Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel; Driha, Oana M.; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Sinha, Avik
    Abstract: This paper focuses on long-term evidence on economic growth, international tourism, globalization, energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in OECD countries for the period of 1994-2014. The empirical analysis reveals that climate change is magnified by energy use, tourism and economic growth. An inverted U-shaped relationship is also found between international tourism and CO2 emissions. The contribution of international tourism to climate change in the early stages of development is thus diminished by globalization in the later stages. In other words, globalization appears to reduce carbon emissions from international tourism. The empirical results provide additional arguments for shaping regulatory frameworks aimed at reversing the current energy mix in OECD countries by facilitating energy efficiency and promoting renewable sources.
    Keywords: Tourism; Globalization; CO2 Emissions; Economic Growth; Energy
    JEL: Q5 Q53
    Date: 2020
  4. By: Bryon Higgins; Matthew Higgins; Thomas Klitgaard
    Abstract: People across the world have cut back sharply on travel due to the Covid-19 pandemic, working from home and cancelling vacations and other nonessential travel. Industrial activity is also off sharply. These forces are translating into an unprecedented collapse in global oil demand. The nature of the decline means that demand is unlikely to respond to the steep drop in oil prices, so supply will have to fall in tandem. The rapid increase in U.S. oil production of recent years was already looking difficult to sustain before the pandemic, as evidenced by the limited profitability of the sector. Now, U.S. producers may have to bear the brunt of the global supply adjustment needed over the near term.
    Keywords: oil; fracking; OPEC; United States; consumption; supply; prices; pandemic; coronavirus; International Energy Agency (IEA); COVID-19
    JEL: E2 G1
    Date: 2020–05–04
  5. By: Jiashuo Li; Sili Zhou; Wendong Wei; Jianchuan Qi; Yumeng Li; Bin Chen; Ning Zhang; Dabo Guan; Haoqi Qian; Xiaohui Wu; Jiawen Miao; Long Chen; Sai Liang; Kuishuang Feng
    Abstract: China has implemented retrofitting measures in coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) to reduce air pollution through small unit shutdown (SUS), the installation of air pollution control devices (APCDs) and power generation efficiency (PGE) improvement. The reductions in highly toxic Hg emissions and their related health impacts by these measures have not been well studied. To refine mitigation options, we evaluated the health benefits of reduced Hg emissions via retrofitting measures during China's 12th Five-Year Plan by combining plant-level Hg emission inventories with the China Hg Risk Source-Tracking Model. We found that the measures reduced Hg emissions by 23.5 tons (approximately 1/5 of that from CFPPs in 2010), preventing 0.0021 points of per-foetus intelligence quotient (IQ) decrements and 114 deaths from fatal heart attacks. These benefits were dominated by CFPP shutdowns and APCD installations. Provincial health benefits were largely attributable to Hg reductions in other regions. We also demonstrated the necessity of considering human health impacts, rather than just Hg emission reductions, in selecting Hg control devices. This study also suggests that Hg control strategies should consider various factors, such as CFPP locations, population densities and trade-offs between reductions of total Hg (THg) and Hg2+.
    Date: 2020–05
  6. By: Alexander Dobrinevski (OECD); Raphaël Jachnik (OECD)
    Abstract: Mitigating climate change requires aligning real economy investments with climate objectives. This pilot study measures the climate consistency of investments in transport infrastructure and vehicles in Latvia between 2008 and 2018, estimated at EUR 1.5 billion per year on average. To do so, three complementary mitigation-related reference points are used. Applying the criteria defined by the European Union Taxonomy for Sustainable Activities results in 4.2% of investments assessed as making a substantial contribution to climate change mitigation. Comparing actual greenhouse gas trajectories for each transport mode to a 2°C scenario from the International Energy Agency’s for the European Union and to projections from Latvia’s 5th National Communication to the UNFCCC, indicates 32% climate-consistent and up to 9% climate-inconsistent investments. The majority of investments volumes could at this stage not be characterised due to limitations relating to the granularity or coverage of the reference points. Comparing current trends to 2030 and 2050 decarbonisation targets nevertheless highlights future investment and financing challenges, especially for road transport. The methodology piloted in this study can be replicated and scaled up across countries and sectors, using different or complementary reference points specifically aligned to the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
    Keywords: capital expenditure, climate change, emissions, energy efficiency, finance, investment, Latvia, low-greenhouse gas development, measurement, scenarios, taxonomy, tracking, transport
    JEL: Q54 Q56 H54 E01 E22 G31 G32 L91
    Date: 2020–05–20
  7. By: Christiane Baumeister; Dimitris Korobilis; Thomas K. Lee
    Abstract: This paper evaluates alternative indicators of global economic activity and other market fundamentals in terms of their usefulness for forecasting real oil prices and global petroleum consumption. We find that world industrial production is one of the most useful indicators that has been proposed in the literature. However, by combining measures from a number of different sources we can do even better. Our analysis results in a new index of global economic conditions and new measures for assessing future tightness of energy demand and expected oil price pressures.
    Keywords: Energy demand, forecasting, stochastic volatility, oil price pressures, petroleum consumption, state of the world economy
    JEL: C11 C32 C52 Q41 Q47
    Date: 2020–02
  8. By: Johansson, Per-Olov (CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics)
    Abstract: The European Union's Emissions Trading System is the largest system in the world for trade in greenhouse gases. It used to be a cap-and-trade scheme with a fixed supply of permits. However, a recent reform of the system "punctures the waterbed" by making the supply of permits endogenous. The current paper discusses how to handle permits in economic evaluations. It considers both schemes with a fixed cap and schemes with an endogenous cap. The paper also derives a rule when the project causes an induced intertemporal change in the supply of permits under an endogenous cap. An induced reduction in emissions, what we term a "permit multiplier", is associated with benefits but comes at a cost as production is displaced when the number of available permits decreases. The permit multiplier implies that emissions within the EU ETS are valued differently from emissions occurring elsewhere even under an endogenous cap. A further novel result is that an endogenous cap could increase the social profitability of abatement efforts. By replacing purchases of permits, abatement could cause a reduction in the endogenous supply of permits and hence emissions.
    Keywords: Cost-benefit analysis; permits; waterbed puncture; endogenous cap; ETS; climate gases; social cost of carbon
    JEL: H23 H43 Q51 Q54
    Date: 2020–05–11
  9. By: Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Feng, Kuishuang
    Abstract: This study explores the labour impact of four scenarios of electricity generation in Chile, including three coal power phase-down scenarios. These scenarios would result in the creation of between 32 and 40 thousand direct and indirect jobs and between US$1.7 and US$1.8 billion in value added in 2030, compared to present-day situation. Net numbers mask winners and losers. The most significative negative impact we find would be the progressive disappearance of 4 thousand jobs in coal power plants by 2030 or 2050 depending on the scenario. These impacts are not significant when compared to Chile’s labor markets and GDP. Chile’s economy routinely creates more than 40 thousand jobs per trimester, and US$1.7 billion is just 0.8% of GDP, while GDP is expected to grow at least 2.5% per year between today and 2030. At the national level, our results suggest that a careful planning and implementation of coal phase out could be able to mitigate its negative impacts, given that they will be small relative to the size of Chile’s economy. In practice, whether the jobs created nationally match the skills available in the geographical location of current coal power plants is likely to play a key role. This study does not investigate this issue, but a separate technical note studies affected communities with more details and provides lessons learned from historic management of the labor impacts of policy reforms.
    Keywords: Labor impacts,Coal phase out,Climate change,Chile,Input-output analysis,Scenario analysis,Just Transition
    Date: 2019
  10. By: Malafry, Laurence; Soares Brinca, Pedro
    Abstract: Policy makers concerned with setting optimal values for carbon instruments to address climate change externalities often employ integrated assessment models (IAMs). While these models differ on their assumptions of climate damage impacts, discounting and technology, they conform on their assumption of complete markets and a representative household. In the face of global inequality and significant vulnerability of asset poor households, we relax the complete markets assumption and introduce a realistic degree of global household inequality. A simple experiment of introducing a range of global carbon taxes shows a household’s position on the global wealth distribution predicts the identity of their most-preferred carbon price. Specifically, poor agents prefer strong public action against climate change to mitigate the risk for which they are implicitly more vulnerable. This preference exists even without progressive redistribution of the revenue. We find that, parallel to the literature on macroeconomic policy and incomplete markets, the carbon tax can partially fill the role of insurance by reducing the volatility of future welfare. It is this role that drives the wedge between rich and poor households’ policy preferences, where rich households’ preferences closely mimic the representative agent. Estimates of the optimal carbon tax and the welfare gains of mitigation strategies may be underestimated if this channel is not taken into account.
    Keywords: Climate change, Inequality, Risk, Optimal carbon policy
    JEL: H23 H31 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2020–05–05
  11. By: Osorio, Sebastian; Tietjen, Oliver; Pahle, Michael; Pietzcker, Robert; Edenhofer, Ottmar
    Abstract: The stringency of the EU’s Emission Trading System (ETS) is bound to be ratcheted-up to deliver on more ambitious goals as put forth in the EU’s Green Deal. Tightening the cap needs to consider the interactions with the Market Stability Reserve (MSR), which will be reviewed in 2021. Against that background, we employ the detailed model LIMES-EU to analyse options for the upcoming reforms. First, we examine how revising MSR parameters impacts allowance cancellations through the MSR. We find that under current regulation, the MSR cancels 5.1 Gt of allowances. Varying MSR parameters leads to cancellations in the range of 2.6 and 7.9 Gt, with the intake/outtake thresholds having the highest impact. Intake rates above 12% only have a limited effect but cause oscillatory intake behaviour. Second, we analyse how the 2030 targets can be achieved by adjusting the linear reduction factor (LRF). We find that the LRF increases MSR cancellations substantially (up to 10.0 Gt). This implies that increasing the LRF from currently 2.2% to 2.6% could already be consistent with the 55% EU-wide emission reduction target in 2030. However, we highlight that the number of MSR cancellations is subject to large uncertainty. Overall, the MSR increases the complexity of the market. In face of that, we suggest to develop the MSR into a Price Stability Reserve.
    Keywords: EU climate policy,EU ETS reform,linear reduction factor (LRF),Market Stability Reserve (MSR),EU ETS Phase IV
    JEL: L94 Q58
    Date: 2020
  12. By: World Bank
    Keywords: Energy - Electric Power Energy - Energy Conservation & Efficiency Energy - Energy Consumption Energy - Energy Demand Energy - Energy Policies & Economics Energy - Energy Sector Regulation Energy - Energy Technology & Transmission Energy - Energy and Environment
    Date: 2019–06
  13. By: Joseph S. Shapiro
    Abstract: This paper documents a new fact, then analyzes its causes and consequences: in most countries, import tariffs and non-tariff barriers are substantially lower on dirty than on clean industries, where an industry’s “dirtiness” is defined as its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per dollar of output. This difference in trade policy creates a global implicit subsidy to CO2 emissions in internationally traded goods and so contributes to climate change. This global implicit subsidy to CO2 emissions totals several hundred billion dollars annually. The greater protection of downstream industries, which are relatively clean, substantially accounts for this pattern. The downstream pattern can be explained by theories where industries lobby for low tariffs on their inputs but final consumers are poorly organized. A quantitative general equilibrium model suggests that if countries applied similar trade policies to clean and dirty goods, global CO2 emissions would decrease and global real income would change little.
    JEL: F13 F18 F6 H23 Q50 Q56
    Date: 2020–05
  14. By: Maxim, Maruf Rahman
    Abstract: We present a synthesis of simulation studies concerning green tax reform (GTR) in European and non-European countries. The GTR performance is analysed in a triple dividend (TD) context including the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (first dividend), increased GDP (second dividend), and higher employment (third dividend). Our findings are fourfold: (1) there is high TD potential, with stronger evidence for second and third dividends in European countries; (2) a reduction in labour tax is the most potent GTR policy measure to entail TD; (3) TD evidence is stronger when mixed tax and tax recycle policies are employed; (4) taxes based on CO2 emissions exhibit the highest TD potential.
    Keywords: Green tax reform, Triple dividend, Meta-analysis
    JEL: H23 O44 Q58
    Date: 2019–08–04
  15. By: Egüez, Alejandro (CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics)
    Abstract: This paper assesses whether and to what extent income and the stringency and enforcement (S&E) of environmental regulation influence compliance with the EU Waste Hierarchy (EWH), i.e., how EU member states treat waste. The EWH prioritizes waste prevention and re-use over recycling, which is ranked above waste to energy (WtE), while incineration and landfilling are the least preferred options. Biennial panel data for the period 2010–2016 is used to create a compliance index based on the waste treatment alternatives in the EWH. Waste (excluding major mineral waste) of 26 European Union countries is examined. This study is the first of its kind to regress an EWH compliance index on income, stringency and enforcement of environmental regulation, and other variables that are also expected to affect the relative benefits and costs of waste treatment like population density, heating demand, and electricity prices. In conjunction, the shares of landfilling, incineration, WtE, and recycling are also modeled to capture the effect of these variables in the waste treatment mix. Stringency and enforcement of environmental regulation have a positive effect on compliance with the EWH, which has increased over time.
    Keywords: EU waste hierarchy; waste treatment ladders; income; policy stringency; policy enforcement
    JEL: O44 Q53 R11
    Date: 2020–05–04
  16. By: Sharova, Varvara; Wolff, Paul; Konersmann, Benedikt; Ferstl, Ferdinand; Stanek, Robert; Hackmann, Markus
    Abstract: Li-ion batteries are used in battery-powered vehicles, but also in power tools and consumer electronics. Due to the challenges posed by climate change and the increasing penalties for CO2 emissions, battery-powered electric vehicles are regarded as one of the solutions. Modern lithium-ion batteries are currently manufactured mainly by Asian manufacturers. However, the forecast demand for Li-ion batteries in Europe cannot be met by them. This gives the new European players the opportunity to enter the market and build local value chains.
    Keywords: Li-ion batteries,value chain,automotive,OEM
    Date: 2020
  17. By: Bolanos, Jose A.
    Abstract: This article delves into the challenge of successful entrepreneurship in the energy industry under conditions of uncertainty by examining the case of John D Rockefeller’s Standard Oil Company, which rapidly seized control of an initially-uncertain industry. It finds that Rockefeller cemented control through a willingness to internalise contextual uncertainty (related to the nature of the energy business) as a stepping stone to managing contractual uncertainty (related to transactions with other parties). This finding suggests that thinking sequentially about the management of contextual and contractual uncertainty aids entrepreneurial success in the field of energy. This suggestion accords with standing calls in the transaction costs literature, which means that findings may generalise to some extent. However, the exploratory nature of the analysis implies the need for further research about the argument’s compatibility with modern energy practices and its generalisability.
    Keywords: Uncertainty; Rockefeller; Standard Oil Company; Entrepreneurship; Transaction costs
    JEL: R14 J01 J50
    Date: 2019–09–01
  18. By: Lamp, Stefan; Samano, Mario
    Abstract: Policies to incentivize the adoption of renewable energy sources (RES) usually offer little flexibility to adapt to the varying benefits of those sources at different locations within the same jurisdiction. In this paper, we propose a general framework to evaluate the geographical misallocation of RES that is potentially caused by the uniform nature of feed-in-tariffs (FiT). After estimating the dispersion of the marginal benefits from solar production in Germany, we compute the social and private costs from the current configuration of residential solar photovoltaic (PV) plants relative to a reallocation scenario in which regions with a higher PV average productivity are given higher amounts of solar capacity, while keeping the system's total capacity fixed. We find that a 20% solar installation rate and with a conservative value for the social cost of carbon, the total value of solar PV would increase by about 5% relative to the current allocation. In addition, we estimate the size of the transmission capacity between the North and the South of Germany implied by the differences in marginal costs across those regions. Reallocating solar capacity with the possibility of exporting surpluses from the South to the North would yield gains that range from 14 to 22% depending on the rate of solar penetration. A benefit-cost analysis shows that additional transmission can be beneficial if there is sufficient RES capacity reallocated across regions.
    Keywords: Renewable energy sources; electricity markets; feed-in-tariffs; ancillary services; misallocation.
    JEL: H23 Q42 Q48 Q51
    Date: 2020–05
  19. By: Matthias Rodemeier; Andreas Löschel
    Abstract: How much information should governments reveal to consumers if consumption choices have uninternalized consequences to society? How does an alternative tax policy compare to information disclosure? We develop a price theoretic model of information design that allows empiricists to identify the welfare effects of any arbitrary information policy. Based on this model, we run a natural field experiment in cooperation with a large European appliance retailer and randomize information regarding the financial benefits of energy-efficient household lighting among more than 640,000 subjects. We find that full information disclosure strongly decreases demand for energy efficiency, while partial information disclosure increases demand. More information reduces social welfare because the increase in consumer surplus is outweighed by the rise in environmental externalities. By randomizing product prices, we identify the optimal tax vector as an alternative policy and show that sizable taxes on energy-inefficient products yield larger welfare gains than any information policy. We also document an important policy interaction: information provision dramatically reduces attention to pecuniary incentives and thereby limits the effectiveness of taxes.
    Keywords: persuasion, optimal taxation, internality, taxes, field experiments, energy efficiency, behavioral public economics
    JEL: D61 D83 H21 Q41 Q48
    Date: 2020
  20. By: Ana Maria Montoya Gómez; Marie-Theres von Schickfus; Markus Zimmer
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of different energy transition paths on regional value added and on employment. We extend traditional input-output analysis by taking into account the scarcity of factors of production, and construct a dataset incorporating the regional dimension and specific electricity producing technologies. We find that the three observed districts in the German Oberland region benefit (to varying degrees) from investments towards regional energy transition, both in terms of additional value added and employment. Yet, the positive development comes at the expense of value added and employment in the rest of the country. Moreover, our analysis shows that medium-skilled employment increases most across all scenarios. This finding deserves attention in light of the current shortage of medium-skilled labor in Germany.
    JEL: Q43 R15 C67
    Date: 2020
  21. By: Monica Billio (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Michele Costola (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari); Loriana Pelizzon (Research Center SAFE, Goethe University Frankfurt); Max Riedel (Department of Economics, University Of Venice Cà Foscari; Research Center SAFE, Goethe University Frankfurt)
    Abstract: We investigate the relation between buildings’ energy efficiency and the probability of mortgage default. To this end, we construct a novel panel dataset by combining Dutch loan-level mortgage information with provisional building energy ratings that are provided by the Netherlands Enterprise Agency. By employing the logistic regression and the extended Cox model, we find that buildings’ energy efficiency is associated with lower likelihood of mortgage default. We also show that energy efficiency provides a further mitigation of default risk for borrowers with a lower income potentially because of the savings coming from lower utility bills, which have a major impact on the borrower with less disposable income. The results hold for a battery of robustness checks.
    Keywords: Mortgages, Energy Efficiency, Credit Risk
    JEL: G21
    Date: 2020
  22. By: Atamanov,Aziz; Mostafavi Dehzooei,Mohammadhadi; Wai-Poi,Matthew Grant
    Abstract: Facing a fiscal crisis, the Islamic Republic of Iran decided to increase gasoline prices at the end of 2019. This paper estimates the impact of the price increase on household welfare and government revenue, using the most recent Household Expenditure and Income Survey conducted by the Statistical Center of Iran in March 2018-March 2019. The paper looks at the direct and indirect impacts of the reform and quantifies the compensatory cash transfer program the government instituted. Despite very regressive gasoline subsidies benefitting the rich the most, the increase in gasoline prices is found to affect the poor to a greater extent due to larger negative indirect impacts as well as their relatively low incomes. In total, poverty is estimated to increase by about 2.9 percentage points, with the direct impact accounting for a third of this increase. The proposed government scheme, if targeted perfectly to the poorest 18 million households, would fully compensate the poorest bottom 50 percent of the population and reduce poverty to below pre-reform levels. The annual cost of the program will be around 338 trillion rials, which accounts for 77 percent of the estimated total savings from the subsidies reform (439 trillion rials).
    Keywords: Inequality,Economic Assistance,Access of Poor to Social Services,Disability,Services&Transfers to Poor,Energy and Mining,Energy and Environment,Energy Demand,Oil Refining&Gas Industry,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases
    Date: 2020–05–07
  23. By: Ron Gecan
    Abstract: CBO forecasts benchmark prices of oil to support its economic and budgetary projections. This paper describes the method CBO uses to forecast oil prices and assesses the quality of the agency's projections during the 1993–2019 period, including how that quality compares with that of other forecasts.
    JEL: C00 G17 Q02 Q47
    Date: 2020–05–14
  24. By: Andreas Karpf (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne); Antoine Mandel (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Stefano Battiston (CAMS - Centre d'Analyse et de Mathématique sociales - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper presents an analysis of the European Emission Trading System as a transaction network. It is shown that, given the lack of well-identified trading institutions, industrial actors had to resort to local connections and financial intermediaries to participate in the market. This gave rise to a hierarchical structure in the transaction network. It is then shown that the asymmetries in the network induced market inefficiencies (e.g., increased bid-ask spread) and informational asymmetries, that have been exploited by central agents at the expense of less central ones. Albeit the efficiency of the market has improved from the beginning of Phase II, the asymmetry persists, imposing unnecessary additional costs on agents and reducing the effectiveness of the market as a mitigation instrument.
    Keywords: Network,Carbon market,Climate change,Microstructure
    Date: 2018–09
  25. By: Sinha, Avik; Shah, Muhammad Ibrahim; Sengupta, Tuhin; Jiao, Zhilun
    Abstract: This study investigates the relationship between technological progression and ambient air pollution in top-10 polluted Middle East and North African (MENA) countries by using monthly data for the period of 1990-2017. The Quantile cointegration proposed by Xiao (2009), Quantile-on-Quantile regression (QQ) proposed by Sim and Zhou (2015), and Quantile Autoregressive Granger causality developed by Troster (2018) are applied. In particular, we examine to which extent, quantiles of technological progression affect the quantiles of ambient air pollution, by developing separate indicators for both the mentioned aspects using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Our empirical findings unfold mutual dependence between technological progression and ambient air pollution. Furthermore, the results of Quantile Autoregressive Granger causality test conclude a bidirectional causal relationship between technological progression and ambient air pollution.
    Keywords: Technological progression; Air pollution; Quantile modeling; MENA countries
    JEL: Q5 Q53
    Date: 2020
  26. By: Thomas Douenne (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Although widely endorsed by economists, carbon tax is struggling to establish itself on the agendas of public decision-makers. One of the reasons for its slow development is the fear that it might generate major redistributive effects, and in particular discriminate against the lowest-income households. This policy brief presents the findings of an ex ante assessment of the redistributive effects on households of the environmental taxation reforms in France in 2018. Carbon tax is intrinsically regressive, but it generates additional revenue. By transferring this revenue neutrally to all households, a progressive reform would be obtained. However, even in such a situation, the reform would generate considerable redistributive effects within the income groups. Such horizontal transfers, which are more difficult to correct, suggest that other tools are necessary for reducing the impact of the reform on the most vulnerable. Looking to the long term, it appears essential to invest in improving the energy performance of housing and of transport. Such policies meet not only environmental requirements, but also the need to reduce the vulnerability of the lowest-income households to future energy price rises.
    Date: 2018–07
  27. By: Erik Ens; Craig Johnston
    Abstract: This paper adapts climate-economy models that have been applied in other contexts for use in climate-related scenario analysis. We consider illustrative scenarios for the global economy that could generate economic and financial risks. Our results suggest there are significant economic risks from climate change and the move to a low-carbon economy.
    Keywords: Climate change; Economic models; Financial stability; International topics
    JEL: C6 C68 D5 D58 E5 E50 O4 O44 P1 P18 Q4 Q5 Q54 Q55
    Date: 2020–05
  28. By: Naudé, Wim
    Abstract: Entrepreneurship in advanced economies is in decline. This comes as a surprise: many scholars have anticipated an upsurge in entrepreneurship, and expected an "entrepreneurial economy" to replace the post-WW2 "managed" economy. Instead of the "entrepreneurial economy" what has come into being may perhaps better be labelled the "ossified economy." This paper starts by document the decline. It then critically presents the current explanations offered in the literature. While having merit, these explanations are proximate and supply-side oriented. Given these shortcomings, this paper contributes a new perspective: it argues that negative scale effects from rising complexity, as well as long-run changes in aggregate demand due to inequality and rising energy costs, are also responsible. Implications for entrepreneurship scholarship are drawn.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship,start-ups,development,economic complexity,growth theory
    JEL: O47 O33 J24 E21 E25
    Date: 2020
  29. By: Douglas Almond; Xinming Du; Shuang Zhang
    Abstract: Ambient pollution is a byproduct of economic activity. It has been widely reported that COVID-19 and associated lockdowns have generated large improvements in air quality worldwide, including to China's notoriously-poor air quality. We analyze China's official pollution monitor data and account for the large, recurrent improvement in air quality following Lunar New Year (LNY), which essentially coincided with lockdowns in 2020. With the important exception of NO2, China's air quality improvements in 2020 are smaller than we should expect near the pandemic's epicenter: Hubei province. Compared with LNY improvements experienced in 2018 and 2019 in Hubei, we see smaller improvements in SO2 while ozone concentrations increased in both relative and absolute terms (roughly doubling). Similar patterns are found for the six provinces neighboring Hubei. We conclude that whether COVID-19 actually decreased pollution in China depends on the pollutant and reference period considered.
    JEL: I1 Q53 Q56 Z18
    Date: 2020–05
  30. By: Stephie Fried; David Lagakos
    Abstract: The lack of reliable electricity in the developing world is widely viewed by policymakers as a major constraint on firm productivity. Yet most empirical studies find modest short-run effects of power outages on firm performance. This paper builds a dynamic macroeconomic model to study the long-run general equilibrium effects of power outages on productivity. The model captures the key features of how firms acquire electricity in the developing world, in particular the rationing of grid electricity and the possibility of self-generated electricity at higher cost. Power outages lower productivity in the model by creating idle resources, by depressing the scale of incumbent firms and by reducing entry of new firms. Consistent with the empirical literature, the model predicts that the short-run partial-equilibrium effects of eliminating outages are small. However, the long-run general-equilibrium effects are many times larger, supporting the view that eliminating outages is an important development objective.
    JEL: E13 E23 O11 O41 Q43
    Date: 2020–05
  31. By: Ahrens, Volker
    Abstract: Karakuri ist in der japanischen Industrie bereits weit verbreitet, außerhalb Japans aber noch weitgehend unbekannt. Um dieses Konzept auch für die heimische In-dustrie nutzbar zu machen und um weitere Entwicklungsmöglichkeiten aufzuzeigen, werden im vorliegenden Beitrag zunächst die technischen Grundlagen erläutert. Daran schließen sich Analysen zu wesentlichen Anforderungen an: Wirtschaftlich-keit, Arbeitssicherheit und Umweltschutz. Schließlich werden Potenziale für wei-tere Entwicklungen aufgezeigt, die bereits Gegenstand entsprechender Forschungs- und Entwicklungsprojekte sind.
    Keywords: Lean Production,Low Cost Automation (LCA),Kaizen,Monozukuri,Frugale Innovation,Energy Harvesting,Akteur-Netzwerk-Theorie (ANT),Symbo-lischer Interaktionismus,Boundary Objects,Affordanztheorie
    Date: 2020
  32. By: Camille Blaudin de Thé (PSE - Paris School of Economics); Benjamin Carantino (PSE - Paris School of Economics); Miren Lafourcade (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics, RITM - Réseaux Innovation Territoires et Mondialisation - UP11 - Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of urban form on household fuel consumption and car emissions in France. We in particular analyze three features of cities commonly referred to as the "3 D's" (Cervero & Kockelman 1997): Density, Design and Diversity. Individual data allow us to identify the effects of urban form and the spatial sorting of households on emissions. We also use instrumental variables to control for other endogeneity issues. Our results suggest that, by choosing to live at the fringe of a metropolitan area instead of the city center, a representative household would consume approximately six extra tanks of fuel per year. More generally, doubling residential Density would result in an annual saving of approximately two tanks per household. However, larger gains would result from better urban Design (job-housing central-ization, improved rail/bus routes to central business districts, reduced pressure for road construction and a less fragmented built environment in urban areas) while improved Diversity (the concentration of various local amenities such as shops and public facilities) can also help lower fuel consumption. Another important finding is that the relationship between the metropolitan population and car emissions in France is bell-shaped, contrary to that in the US, suggesting that small cities do compensate for their lack of Density/Diversity by environmentally-friendly Design.
    Keywords: Sprawl,car emissions,CO 2 footprint,driving,public transport,smart cities
    Date: 2020–05
  33. By: Anhelm, Fritz Erich; Tuttlies, Iris
    Abstract: Die Ausarbeitung von vier Szenarien für die Energiewende bis 2035 geht auf das Projekt "Strukturwandel der Energiewende – Konversionsstrategien in der deutschen Energiewirtschaft" zurück. Die in der Untersuchung aufgezeigten gegenwärtigen Trends in der Energiewirtschaft werden mit den HBS-Mitbestimmungsszenarien 2035 abgeglichen. Die Szenarien zeigen eine große Bandbreite von re-aktiven und pro-aktiven Handlungsmöglichkeiten. Darin die der jeweiligen Situation angemessenen Möglichkeiten zu entdecken und sie zu Strategien zu entwickeln ist das Angebot dieser Szenarien für die Betriebsratsarbeit selbst und die von ihnen und den Gewerkschaften organisierte Bildungsarbeit.
    Keywords: Energiewende,Szenarien,Energiewirtschaft
    Date: 2020
  34. By: Thomas Douenne (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: Bien que plébiscitée par les économistes, la taxe carbone peine à se faire une place dans l'agenda des décideurs publics. Une des raisons de son lent développement est la crainte qu'elle puisse générer d'importants effets redistributifs, et en particulier pénaliser les ménages les plus modestes. Cette note présente les résultats d'une évaluation ex ante des effets redistributifs sur les ménages des réformes de la fiscalité environnementale en France en 2018. La taxe carbone est en elle-même régressive, mais génère des recettes supplémentaires. En transférant de manière neutre ce revenu à tous les ménages, on obtiendrait une réforme progressive. Toutefois, même dans cette situation la réforme génèrerait d'importants effets redistributifs au sein des groupes de revenu. Ces transferts horizontaux, plus difficiles à corriger, suggèrent que d'autres outils sont nécessaires pour réduire l'impact de la réforme sur les plus vulnérables. Dans une perspective de long terme, il apparaît comme essentiel d'investir dans l'amélioration des performances énergétiques des logements et des transports. Ces politiques répondent non seulement à des exigences environnementales, mais aussi au besoin de réduire la vulnérabilité des ménages les plus modestes à l'augmentation future des prix de l'énergie.
    Date: 2018–07

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