nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2020‒05‒18
39 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Sectoral Electricity Demand and Direct Rebound Effect in New Zealand By Nepal, Rabindra; al Irsyad, Muhammad Indra; Jamasb, Tooraj
  2. The energy transition in Asia: Country priorities, fuel types, and energy decisions By Etienne Romsom; Kathryn McPhail
  3. Committed emissions and the risk of stranded assets from power plants in Latin America and the Caribbean By Oskar LECUYER; Esperanza GONZALEZ-MAHECHA
  4. Energy forecasting: A review and outlook By Tao Hong; Pierre Pinson; Yi Wang; Rafal Weron; Dazhi Yang; Hamidreza Zareipour
  5. An Emissions Trading System to reach NDC targets in the Chilean electric sector By P\'ia Amigo; Sebasti\'an Cea-Echenique; Felipe Feijoo
  6. Nudging the Adoption of Fuel-Efficient Vehicles: Evidence from a Stated Choice Experiment in Nepal By Massimo Filippini; Nilkanth Kumar; Suchita Srinivasan
  7. On Green Growth with Sustainable Capital By Basu, Parantap; Jamasb, Tooraj
  8. Expected Health Effects of Reduced Air Pollution from COVID-19 Social Distancing By Steve Cicala; Stephen P. Holland; Erin T. Mansur; Nicholas Z. Muller; Andrew J. Yates
  9. Captive Power, Market Access, and Welfare Effects in the Bangladesh Electricity Sector By Amin, Sakib; Jamasb, Tooraj; Llorca, Manuel; Marsiliani, Laura; Renström, Thomas
  10. Tourism, Environment and Energy: An Analysis for China By Sharif, Arshian; Saha, Shrabani; Campbell, Neil; Sinha, Avik; Ibrahiem, Dalia M.
  11. Decreases in global CO$_2$ emissions due to COVID-19 pandemic By Zhu Liu; Zhu Deng; Philippe Ciais; Ruixue Lei; Sha Feng; Steven J. Davis; Yuan Wang; Xu Yue; Yadong Lei; Hao Zhou; Zhaonan Cai; Bo Zheng; Xinyu Dou; Duo Cui; Pan He; Biqing Zhu; Piyu Ke; Taochun Sun; Yuhui Wu; Runtao Guo; Tingxuan Han; Jinjun Xue; Yilong Wang; Frederic Chevallier; Qiang Zhang; Dabo Guan; Peng Gong; Daniel M. Kammen; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
  12. Reaching Brazil's Nationally Determined Contributions: An Assessment of the Key Transitions in Final Demand and Employment By Florent MCISAAC; Daniel BASTIDAS
  13. Mineral resources for renewable energy: Optimal timing of energy production By Adrien Fabre; Mouez Fodha; Francesco Ricci
  14. Revisiting the role of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on Turkey’s ecological footprint: Evidence from Quantile ARDL approach By Sharif, Arshian; Baris-Tuzemen, Ozge; Uzuner, Gizem; Ozturk, Ilhan; Sinha, Avik
  15. A Green New Deal after Corona: What We Can Learn from the Financial Crisis By Mats Kröger; Sun Xi; Olga Chiappinelli; Marius Clemens; Nils May; Karsten Neuhoff; Jörn Richstein
  16. Can Information about Energy Costs Affect Consumers Choices? Evidence from a Field Experiment By Nina Boogen; Claudio Daminato; Massimo Filippini; Adrian Obrist
  17. The long Norwegian boom: Dutch disease after all? By Knut Anton Mork
  18. The Specification of Rules of Differentiation in the NDCs to the Paris Agreement By Ulrike Will
  19. On the Effects of COVID-19 Safer-At-Home Policies on Social Distancing, Car Crashes and Pollution By Brodeur, Abel; Cook, Nikolai; Wright, Taylor
  20. The European Green Deal after Corona - Implications for EU climate policy By Elkerbout, Milan; Egenhofer, Christian; Núñez Ferrer, Jorge; Catuti, Mihnea; Kustova, Irina; Rizos, Vasileios
  21. The Impact of the Wuhan Covid-19 Lockdown on Air Pollution and Health: A Machine Learning and Augmented Synthetic Control Approach By Matthew A Cole; Robert J R Elliott; Bowen Liu
  22. Movements in Real Estate Uncertainty in the United States: The Role of Oil Shocks By Rangan Gupta; Xin Sheng; Qiang Ji
  23. Carbon consumption patterns of emerging middle classes By Never, Babette; Albert, Jose Ramon; Fuhrmann, Hanna; Gsell, Sebastian; Jaramillo, Miguel; Kuhn, Sascha; Senadza, Bernardin
  24. Two energy suppliers are better than one: survey experiments on consumer engagement with local energy in GB By Watson, Nicole Elizabeth; Huebner, Gesche; Fell, Michael James; Shipworth, David
  25. The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Evidence from a Panel of Emerging Economies By Oguzhan Cepni; Rangan Gupta; Cenk C. Karahan
  26. Way Off: The Effect of Minimum Distance Regulation on the Deployment of Wind Power By Jan Stede; Nils May
  27. Model of the impact of legal regulations on management processes in power companies By Joanna Kott; Jagoda Mrzyglocka-Chojnacka; Marek Kott
  28. Nonlinear common trends for the global crude oil market: Markov-switching score-driven models of the multivariate t-distribution By Licht, Adrian; Escribano Saez, Alvaro; Blazsek, Szabolcs Istvan
  29. Averaging predictive distributions across calibration windows for day-ahead electricity price forecasting By Tomasz Serafin; Bartosz Uniejewski; Rafal Weron
  30. Electrification and Socio-economic Empowerment of Women in India By Sedai, Ashish Kumar; Nepal, Rabindra; Jamasb, Tooraj
  31. The Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Asset Markets: Evidence from Oil Inventory News By Ron Alquist; Reinhard Ellwanger; Jianjian Jin
  32. Dynamic linkages between tourism, transportation, growth and carbon emission in the USA: evidence from partial and multiple wavelet coherence By Mishra, Shekhar; Sinha, Avik; Sharif, Arshian; Mohd Suki, Norazah
  33. Accountability and Sustainability Transitions By Siddharth Sareen; Steven Wolf
  34. Communication management model- case study in the project of energy efficiency improvement using the RASCI matrix By Jagoda Mrzyglocka-Chojnacka; Joanna Kott; Marek Kott
  35. Measuring Oil Price Shocks By Vlastakis, Nikolaos; Triantafyllou, Athanasios; Kellard, Neil
  36. The EUÕs Green Deal: Bismarck`s `what is possible` versus Thunberg`s `what is imperative` By Servaas Storm
  37. Evaluating foreign direct investment in Mozambique's natural gas industry: An economy-wide perspective By Silvana Mondlane; Dirk van Seventer
  38. Bank financial stability, bank valuation and international oil prices: Evidence from listed Russian public banks By Claudiu Albulescu
  39. The Role of Policy and Institutions in Greening the Charcoal Value Chain in Zambia By Mulako Kabisa; Brian P. Mulenga; Hambulo Ngoma; Mercy Mupeta Kandulu

  1. By: Nepal, Rabindra (Faculty of Business, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Centre for Contemporary Australasian Business and Economics Studies (CCABES), University of Wollongong, Australia); al Irsyad, Muhammad Indra (R&D Centre of Electricity, Renewables, and Energy Conservation Technology, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesia); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)
    Abstract: This paper is one of the limited studies to investigate rebound effects in sectoral electricity consumption and the specific case of New Zealand. New Zealand, like other OECD economies, has aimed for energy efficiency improvements and reduced electricity consumption from 9.2 MWh per capita in 2010 to 8.6 MWh per capita in 2015. However, following a significant decline since 2010, electricity consumption in the main New Zealand sectors is increasing. Energy conservation could play an important role in meeting the growing demand for electricity but rebound effect can affect the effectiveness of conservation policies. We decompose the sectoral electricity prices to capture the asymmetric demand response to electricity price changes and estimate electricity demand elasticity during 1980 and 2015 to estimate the sectoral rebound effects. We find partial rebound effects of 54% and 23% in the industrial and commercial sector respectively while we find no partial rebound effect at aggregate sectoral level. The rebound effect is insignificant in the residential sector. These findings lead to policy recommendations for more sector specific energy conservation measures and policies.
    Keywords: Electricity; Demand; Rebound; Heating; Time series analysis
    JEL: C32 L94 Q41 Q48
    Date: 2020–05–01
  2. By: Etienne Romsom; Kathryn McPhail
    Abstract: This paper provides an overview of the energy transition in Asia. It sets out the underlying drivers and how these set energy transition priorities in China, India, and South East Asia. It particularly describes the role of (liquefied) natural gas in the growing energy demand and changing energy mix. A comparison is then made for each of the three regions on how four main fuel types (coal, oil, natural gas, and renewables) contribute differently to eight energy transition priorities.
    Keywords: renewable resources, Energy, energy utilities, fuel, Gas
    Date: 2020
  3. By: Oskar LECUYER; Esperanza GONZALEZ-MAHECHA
    Abstract: Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has the least carbon-intensive electricity sector of any region in the world, as hydropower remains the largest source of electricity. But are existing plans consistent with the climate change goals laid out in the Paris Agreement? In this paper, we assess committed CO2 emissions from existing and planned power plants in LAC. Those are the carbon emissions that would result from the operation of fossil-fueled power plants during their typical lifetime. Committed emissions from existing power plants are close to 6.9 Gt of CO2. Building and operating all power plants that are announced, authorized, being procured, or under construction would result in 6.7 Gt of CO2 of additional commitments (for a total of 13.6 Gt of CO2). Committed emissions are above average IPCC assessments of cumulative emissions from power generation in LAC consistent with climate targets. The paper concludes that 10% to 16% of existing fossil-fueled power plants in the region would need to be “stranded” to meet average carbon budgets from IPCC. Our results suggest that international climate change commitments are material even in developing countries with low baseline emissions.
    Keywords: Amérique latine, Guadeloupe, Guyane française, Haïti, Martinique, Suriname
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2019–10–25
  4. By: Tao Hong; Pierre Pinson; Yi Wang; Rafal Weron; Dazhi Yang; Hamidreza Zareipour
    Abstract: Forecasting has been an essential part of the power and energy industry. Researchers and practitioners have contributed thousands of papers on forecasting electricity demand and prices, and renewable generation (e.g., wind and solar power). This paper offers a brief review of influential energy forecasting papers; summarizes research trends; discusses importance of reproducible research and points out six valuable open data sources; makes recommendations about publishing high-quality research papers; and offers an outlook into the future of energy forecasting.
    Keywords: Energy forecasting; Load forecasting; Electricity price forecasting; Wind forecasting; Solar forecasting
    JEL: C51 C52 C53 Q41 Q47
    Date: 2020–05–07
  5. By: P\'ia Amigo; Sebasti\'an Cea-Echenique; Felipe Feijoo
    Abstract: In the context of the Paris Agreement, Chile has pledged to reduce Greenhouse Gases (GHG) intensity by at least 30% below 2007 levels by 2030, and to phase out coal as a energy source by 2040, among other strategies. In pursue of these goals, Chile has implemented a $5 per tonne of CO2 emission tax, first of its kind in Latin America. However, such a low price has proven to be insufficient. In our work, we study an alternative approach for capping and pricing carbon emissions in the Chilean electric sector; the cap and trade paradigm. We model the Chilean electric market (generators and emissions auctioneer) as a two stage capacity expansion equilibrium problem, where we allow future investment and trading of emission permits among generator agents. The model studies generation and future investments in the Chilean electric sector in two regimes of demand: deterministic and stochastic. We show that the current Chilean Greenhouse Gases (GHG) intensity pledge does not drive an important shift in the future Chilean electric matrix. To encourage a shift to greener technologies, a more stringent carbon budget must be considered, resulting in a carbon price approximately ten times higher than the present one. We also show that achieving the emissions reduction goal does not necessarily results in further reductions of carbon generation, or phasing out coal in the longer term. Finally, we demonstrate that under technology change costs reductions, higher demand scenarios will relax the need for stringent carbon budgets to achieve new renewable energy investments and hence meet the Chilean pledges. These results suggest that some aspects of the Chilean pledge require further analysis, of the economic impact, particularly with the recent announcement of achieving carbon neutrality towards 2050.
    Date: 2020–05
  6. By: Massimo Filippini (Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH), ETH Zurich, Switzerland and Universita della Svizzera italiana, Switzerland); Nilkanth Kumar (Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH), ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Suchita Srinivasan (Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH), ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
    Abstract: Addressing hazardous levels of air pollution in densely-populated cities in emerging countries requires concerted efforts to reduce fossil fuel use, especially in the transport sector. Given that motorcycles comprise almost 80% of vehicle sales in Nepal, a viable alternative to reduce air pollution is driving more fuel-efficient electric alternatives. However, their adoption has been limited due to a gamut of market failures and behavioral anomalies. In this study, we collect rich data on preferences, socio-economic factors and biases of more than 2,000 potential motorcycle buyers in the Kathmandu valley in Nepal. Using a stated choice experiment with randomized information treatments, we evaluate the role of specific behavioral anomalies in determining the stated-preference of consumers on whether they would be willing to buy an electric motorcycle. We find evidence to suggest that cognitive/skills limitations, framing of information, and the affect heuristic play a role in determining the stated-preference of respondents. In particular, displaying qualitative information on the air pollution impact of their choices, and “priming” them through impactful photographs and texts could have a positive effect. Furthermore, the results also hint at the importance of gender, health status and cognitive skills in determining the effectiveness of these nudges in promoting the adoption of electric alternatives. Implications of this study relate to policy choice in settings similar to Kathmandu, where fuel-inefficient vehicles are preferred and widely used, and the negative externalities due to air pollution are very stark.
    Keywords: Market failures, Behavioral anomalies, Electric vehicles, Stated-choice experiment, Nepal
    JEL: D1 D8 Q4 Q5
    Date: 2020–05
  7. By: Basu, Parantap (Durham University Business School, Durham University); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)
    Abstract: We develop an endogenous growth model to address a long standing question whether sustainable green growth is feasible by re-allocating resource use between green (natural) and man-made (carbon intensive) capital. Although the model is general we relate it to the UK’s green growth policy objective. In our model, final output is produced with two reproducible inputs, green and man-made capital. The growth of man-made capital causes depreciation of green capital via carbon emissions and related externalities which the private sector does not internalize. A benevolent government uses carbon taxes to encourage firms to substitute man-made capital with green capital in so far the production technology allows. Doing so, the damage to natural capital by emissions can be partly reversed through a lower socially optimal long run growth. The trade-off between environmental quality and long-run growth can be overcome by a pollution abatement technology intervention. However, if the source of pollution is consumption, the optimal carbon tax is zero and there is no trade-off between environment policy and growth. A corrective consumption tax is then needed to finance a public investment programme for replenishing the green capital destroyed by consumption based emissions.
    Keywords: Green growth; Sustainability; Carbon tax; Clean growth; Resource substitution
    JEL: E10 O30 O40 Q20
    Date: 2020–05–01
  8. By: Steve Cicala; Stephen P. Holland; Erin T. Mansur; Nicholas Z. Muller; Andrew J. Yates
    Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in stay-at-home policies and other social distancing behaviors in the United States in spring of 2020. This paper examines the impact that these actions had on emissions and expected health effects through reduced personal vehicle travel and electricity consumption. Using daily cell phone mobility data for each U.S. county, we find that vehicle travel dropped about 40% by mid-April across the nation. States that imposed stay-at-home policies before March 28 decreased travel slightly more than other states, but travel in all states decreased significantly. Using data on hourly electricity consumption by electricity region (e.g., balancing authority), we find that electricity consumption fell about six percent on average by mid-April with substantial heterogeneity. Given these decreases in travel and electricity use, we estimate the county-level expected improvements in air quality, and therefore expected declines in mortality. Overall, we estimate that, for a month of social distancing, the expected premature deaths due to air pollution from personal vehicle travel and electricity consumption declined by approximately 360 deaths, or about 25% of the baseline 1500 deaths. In addition, we estimate that CO2 emissions from these sources fell by 46 million metric tons (a reduction of approximately 19%) over the same time frame.
    JEL: Q4 Q5
    Date: 2020–05
  9. By: Amin, Sakib (North South University); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Llorca, Manuel (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Marsiliani, Laura (Durham University Business School); Renström, Thomas (Durham University Business School)
    Abstract: Electricity sectors in many emerging and developing countries are characterised by significant captive industrial generation capacity. This is mainly due to unreliable electricity supplies from state-owned utilities. Integrating the captive capacity with the on-grid supply can improve resource utilisation in the electricity market. We use a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to examine the effects of allowing the Bangladeshi Captive Power Plants (CPPs) to sell their excess output to the national grid at regulated prices. We find that opening the grid to CPPs would reduce the industrial output and GDP due to energy price distortions. We also show that the Bangladeshi economy would become more vulnerable to oil price shocks when CPPs are connected to the national grid. These results support the second-best theory, which implies that granting grid access without removing other price distortions can lead to economically inefficient outcomes. We propose that the government should not open the grid to CPPs to minimise energy market distortions yet. Instead, it should first consider alternative reform measures such as taking steps to reduce price distortions and enabling a competitive market environment.
    Keywords: Bangladesh; CPPs; DSGE model; Electricity generation
    JEL: D58 L94 Q43 Q48
    Date: 2020–05–01
  10. By: Sharif, Arshian; Saha, Shrabani; Campbell, Neil; Sinha, Avik; Ibrahiem, Dalia M.
    Abstract: International tourism as a cause of global warming is a controversial and topical issue. Here, we use the novel Morlet wavelet time-frequency approach to gain insight into the dynamic nexus between tourism, renewable energy consumption, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions for China using annual data over the period 1974-2016. The techniques we use include continuous wavelet power spectrum, the wavelet coherency, and the partial and the multiple wavelet coherence for time-frequency decomposition that can capture local oscillatory components in time series. Our findings support the hypothesis that tourism can cause increased energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in China, which challenges the sustainable tourism development goal. However, on the positive side, the relationship between tourism and renewable energy consumption is shown to facilitate reduced environmental degradation in the medium-long run.
    Keywords: Energy consumption; renewable energy; CO2 emission; tourism; partial and multiple wavelet coherence; country study
    JEL: L8 L83
    Date: 2020
  11. By: Zhu Liu; Zhu Deng; Philippe Ciais; Ruixue Lei; Sha Feng; Steven J. Davis; Yuan Wang; Xu Yue; Yadong Lei; Hao Zhou; Zhaonan Cai; Bo Zheng; Xinyu Dou; Duo Cui; Pan He; Biqing Zhu; Piyu Ke; Taochun Sun; Yuhui Wu; Runtao Guo; Tingxuan Han; Jinjun Xue; Yilong Wang; Frederic Chevallier; Qiang Zhang; Dabo Guan; Peng Gong; Daniel M. Kammen; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
    Abstract: Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 are of paramount importance for global sustainability. Using a coordinated set of high-resolution sectoral assessment tools, we report a decrease of 4.2% in global CO$_2$ emission in first quarter of 2020. Our emission estimates reflect near real time inventories of emissions from power generation, transportation, industry, international aviation and maritime sectors in 34 countries that account for >70% of world energy-related CO2 emissions in recent years. Regional variations in CO$_2$ emissions are significant, with a decrease in China (-9.3%), US (-3.0%), Europe (EU-27 & UK) (-3.3%) and India (-2.4%), respectively. The decline of short-lived gaseous pollutants, such as NO$_2$ concentration observed by Satellites (-25.73% for China, -4.76% for US) and ground observations (-23% for China) is consistent with the estimates based on energy activity (-23.94% for China, -3.52% for US), but the decline is not seen in satellite assessments of aerosol optical depth (AOD) or dry column CO$_2$ (XCO$_2$). With fast recovery and partial re-opening of national economies, our findings suggest that total annual emissions may drop far less than previously estimated (e.g., by 25% for China and more than 5% for the whole world). However, the longer-term effects on CO$_2$ emissions are unknown and should be carefully monitored using multiple measures.
    Date: 2020–04
  12. By: Florent MCISAAC; Daniel BASTIDAS
    Abstract: Brazil has achieved significant advances in climate mitigation by reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the last decade. Additionally, Brazil commits to furthering its actions through the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), issued during the Paris Agreement. The country also anticipates a significant increase in GDP in the years to come. Chen et al (2012)’s main conclusion was that if deforestation were to be greatly reduced, the burden of cutting CO2 emissions from energy use and industrial processes would be minimal. However, recent data on land-use emissions show that additional efforts might also be required in the energy sector. Using Brazil’s industrial structure, we evaluate the minimal changes needed in domestic final demand to meet both the NDC target and the forecasted economic growth. Our results show that it may be possible to meet both objectives with policies that incentivize a service-oriented economy while lowering investments in the manufactuing and extracting sectors. Furthermore, this strategy could be net job-creating, would rely on fewer imported products, and would generate tax revenue. However, wages could decrease.
    Keywords: Brésil
    JEL: Q
    Date: 2019–10–04
  13. By: Adrien Fabre (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Mouez Fodha (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Francesco Ricci (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - FRE2010 - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier, UM - Université de Montpellier)
    Abstract: The production of energy from renewable sources is much more intensive in minerals than that from fossil resources. The scarcity of certain minerals limits the potential for substituting renewable energy for scarce fossil resources. However, minerals can be recycled,while fossil resources cannot. We develop an intertemporal model to study the dynamics of the optimal energy mix in the presence of mineral intensive renewable energy and fossil energy. We analyze energy production when both mineral and fossil resources are scarce,but minerals are recyclable. We show that the greater the recycling rate of minerals, the more the energy mix should rely on renewable energy, and the sooner should investment in renewable capacity take place. We confirm these results even in the presence of other better known factors that affect the optimal schedule of resource use: expected productivity growth in the renewable sector, imperfect substitution between the two sources of energy, convex extraction costs for mineral resources and pollution from the use of fossil resources.
    Keywords: Renewable and Non-Renewable Natural Resources,Energy Transition,Recycling,Mineral Resources
    Date: 2020–02
  14. By: Sharif, Arshian; Baris-Tuzemen, Ozge; Uzuner, Gizem; Ozturk, Ilhan; Sinha, Avik
    Abstract: The current study re-investigates the impact of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on Turkey’s ecological footprint. This study applies Quantile Autoregressive Lagged (QARDL) approach for the period of 1965Q1-2017Q4. We further apply Granger-causality in Quantiles to check the causal relationship among the variables. The results of QARDL show that error correction parameter is statistically significant with the expected negative sign for all quantiles which confirm an existence of significant reversion to the long-term equilibrium connection between the related variables and ecological footprint in Turkey. In particular, the outcomes suggested that renewable energy decrease ecological footprint in long-run on each quantile. However, the results of economic growth and non-renewable energy impact positively to ecological footprint in long-short run period at all quantiles. Finally, we tested the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and the results of QARDL confirmed the EKC in Turkey. Furthermore, the findings of causal investigation from Granger-causality in quantiles evident the presence of a bi-directional causal relationship between renewable energy consumption, energy consumption and economic growth with ecological footprint in the Turkish economy.
    Keywords: renewable energy; EKC; ecological footprint; Turkey; QARDL
    JEL: Q5 Q53
    Date: 2020
  15. By: Mats Kröger; Sun Xi; Olga Chiappinelli; Marius Clemens; Nils May; Karsten Neuhoff; Jörn Richstein
    Abstract: Already after the financial crisis in 2008/2009 there was a debate on whether elements aiming at sustainable development can be part of the stimulus packages and support the recovery of the economy. Despite the instinct of policy makers to prioritise battle-tested policies during a crisis, significant levels and different types of climate-friendly components were integrated in the 2009 stimulus packages across the globe. The experience from the past crisis proves that such climate-oriented economic stimulus policies not only raise investments with benefits for economic output and jobs in the near term, but can also lay the groundwork for long-term innovation and economic development aligned with environmental constraints. By introducing policies such as Contracts for Difference for low-carbon industrial processes and renewable energy, and Green Public Procurement, governments can further ensure that their stimulus packages are transformative. Hence, “green stimuli” have the capacity to boost economic recovery also during the current Corona crisis.
    Date: 2020
  16. By: Nina Boogen (Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH), ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Claudio Daminato (Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH), ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Massimo Filippini (Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH), ETH Zurich, Switzerland and Universita della Svizzera italiana, Switzerland); Adrian Obrist (Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH), ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
    Abstract: There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether consumers are fully informed when investing in energy effciency. We experimentally evaluate the role of imperfect informa- tion or limited attention about energy costs of home appliances and light bulbs on households' choices. Using in-home visits, we collect information on the energy effciency of home appliances and light bulbs that households own. Exploiting these unique data, the intervention provided treated households with customized information about the potential of monetary savings from the adoption of new comparable efficient durables. We find a substantial impact of our informa- tion treatment on both the energy efficiency of the newly purchased durables and the intensity of utilization of existing home appliances. Our findings suggest that individuals are not fully informed about or pay attention to energy costs when purchasing and utilizing home appliances.
    Keywords: Imperfect information, Limited attention, Consumers durable choices, Energy efficiency, Field experiment.
    JEL: C93 D12 D83 Q40
    Date: 2020–05
  17. By: Knut Anton Mork (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: The Norwegian non-oil economy has benefitted greatly from the presence of the oil sector. Compared to neighboring and otherwise similar Sweden, Norwegian non-oil (“mainland”) firms on average receive significantly higher product prices and pay higher wages. This development can be explained by a model where oil companies drive up the prices of domestic suppliers as they consider foreign suppliers imperfect and inferior substitutes. Although productivity also improved, the resulting increased prosperity is mainly the result of higher prices and wages. Despite a tax system designed to channel the entire resource rent into the sovereign wealth fund, more than half of the resource rent may have leaked to the private, non-oil economy because of the mechanisms studied here. Because the bonanza must end with the oil industry, important productivity gains have not saved Norway from the Dutch disease.
    Keywords: Resource boom, Rent diversion, Duch disease
    JEL: Q33 Q43 E01
    Date: 2020–05–08
  18. By: Ulrike Will (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, European University Viadrina, Frankfurt (Oder))
    Abstract: The Paris Agreement has limited problem dissolving power to face the risks of climate change. Compliance with the agreement depends on the specification of legal obligations, in particular of the criteria for differentiation and the distribution of costs for climate protection. The Paris Agreement and its subsequent agreements provide legal terms (equity, fairness, justice), a principle (the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, CBDRRC), and rules that seek to operationalize differentiation. However, these criteria remain vague and the Paris Agreement does neither specify qualifying criteria for categories of development nor the weight and relationship of the different criteria to each other. Hence, it remains unclear how the costs for climate protection shall be shared between the Contracting Parties. Consequently, it cannot be said to what extent each single Contracting Party complies with the Paris Agreement. This article seeks to specify the criteria for differentiation based on the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The NDCs are between law and politics of self-differentiation. They can be subsequent practice in the legal sense and measures to comply with the Paris Agreement, but they also provide room to make transparent where the Contracting Parties do not come to an agreement and want to preserve their sovereign rights. The analysis reveals whether the NDCs have the power to fill vague legal terms, principles, and rules for differentiation of the Paris Agreement with content step-by-step or whether all they can do is making national policies more transparent. As the Contracting Parties to the Paris Agreement could not agree on a common standard structuring commitments and expectations towards other states, a comparison first needs to find the common ground of criteria for differentiation used in the NDCs. Terms, principles, the operationalization of quantifiable parameters, non-quantifiable criteria, and categories, as well as arguments for mutual expectations, need to be analysed. The more of these criteria are used by a representative group of Contracting Parties, the more likely they have the potential to be considered subsequent practice in the legal sense, and the more likely they are to serve as a model for other states and future NDCs. The paper concludes with a proposal for a standard form structuring commitments and expectations of the Contracting Parties towards each other. Based on the criteria found in the comparison between NDCs, the table could be included in subsequent decisions to the Paris Agreement and future NDCs. A common pattern to structure the arguments for differentiation might facilitate the discourse on mutual expectations and an agreement on the relative weight of the criteria for differentiation to each other. It might also be used to analyse progress in the NDCs to come.
    Keywords: fairness, equity, justice, common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, CBDRRC, Paris Agreement, Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs, climate change, climate agreement
    Date: 2020–04
  19. By: Brodeur, Abel (University of Ottawa); Cook, Nikolai (University of Ottawa); Wright, Taylor (University of Ottawa)
    Abstract: In response to COVID-19, dramatic safer-at-home policies were implemented. The understanding of their impacts on social distancing, travel and pollution is in its infancy. We pair a differences-in-differences framework and synthetic control methods with rich cellular tracking and high frequency air pollution data. We find that state and U.S. county safer-at-home policies are successful in encouraging social distance; beginning the day of the policy trips outside the home are sharply decreased while time in residence rises sharply. With less vehicle traffic, we find: a 50% reduction in vehicular collisions; an approximately 25% reduction in Particulate Matter (PM2.5) concentrations; and a reduction of the incidence of county-days with an air quality index of code yellow or above by two-thirds. We calculate that the benefits from avoided car collisions could range from $7 billion to $24 billion while the benefits from reduced pollution could range from $650 million to $13.8 billion.
    Keywords: COVID-19, safer-at-home, lockdowns, pollution, traffic, car crashes
    JEL: P48 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2020–05
  20. By: Elkerbout, Milan; Egenhofer, Christian; Núñez Ferrer, Jorge; Catuti, Mihnea; Kustova, Irina; Rizos, Vasileios
    Abstract: Climate change policy cannot be the first priority of the EU for the immediate future. However, in spite of the corona-crisis the urgency of climate change mitigation has not disappeared. The post-corona recovery can both put the EU’s decarbonisation progress back on track – after low-carbon investments will inevitably take a hit – but the EU’s Green Deal proposals can likewise support the general economic recovery. It will be important to ensure that recovery measures are compatible with global climate change and European Green Deal priorities so that stimulus money will flow to economic activities that have a place in a climate-neutral world. As time passes, the re-launch may actually offer a unique opportunity for the EU to live up to the Green Deal’s promise of economic modernisation along the Paris decarbonisation objectives. The period we have until the relaunch should be used to develop a new agenda. These ideas will not per se be off-the-shelf but go beyond current solutions for decarbonisation. Instead of tinkering around the margins, the EU should focus on transformational technologies, and for example go big on low-carbon infrastructure, efficient buildings, and lead markets to boost demand for climate-neutral industry.
    Date: 2020–03
  21. By: Matthew A Cole (University of Birmingham); Robert J R Elliott (University of Birmingham); Bowen Liu (University of Birmingham)
    Abstract: We quantify the impact of the Wuhan Covid-19 lockdown on concentrations of four air pollutants using a two-step approach. First, we use machine learning to remove the confounding effects of weather conditions on pollution concentrations. Second, we use a new Augmented Synthetic Control Method (Ben-Michael et al. 2019) to estimate the impact of the lockdown on weather normalised pollution relative to a control group of cities that were not in lockdown. We find NO2 concentrations fell by as much as 24 ug/m3 during the lockdown (a reduction of 63% from the pre-lockdown level), while PM10 concentrations fell by a similar amount but for a shorter period. The lockdown had no discernible impact on concentrations of SO2 or CO. We calculate that the reduction of NO2 concentrations could have prevented as many as 496 deaths in Wuhan city, 3,368 deaths in Hubei province and 10,822 deaths in China as a whole.
    Keywords: Air pollution, Covid-19, machine learning, synthetic control, health.
    JEL: Q53 Q52 I18 I15 C21 C23
    Date: 2020–05
  22. By: Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Xin Sheng (Lord Ashcroft International Business School, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, CM1 1SQ, United Kingdom); Qiang Ji (College of Business, University of Tulsa, Tulsa, Oklahoma, United States)
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyse the role played by disaggregated oil shocks in driving real estate uncertainty (REU) over the monthly period of 1975:02 to 2017:12, based on impulse response functions generated from the local projection method. We find that the oil-specific consumption demand shock is statistically the strongest predictor of higher future REU, followed by the significant negative impact from the aggregate supply shock especially for long-run REU. While the oil inventory demand shock has a short-lived positive impact on REU, global economic activity shock virtually play no role in driving the same. Our results have important implications for policymakers and investors.
    Keywords: Oil shocks, real estate uncertainty, local projection model, impulse response functions
    JEL: C22 Q41 R30
    Date: 2020–05
  23. By: Never, Babette; Albert, Jose Ramon; Fuhrmann, Hanna; Gsell, Sebastian; Jaramillo, Miguel; Kuhn, Sascha; Senadza, Bernardin
    Abstract: As households move out of poverty, spending patterns change. This is good news from a development perspective, but changing consumer behaviour may imply substantially more carbon emissions. The lifestyle choices of the emerging middle classes are key, now and in the future. This paper explores the consumption patterns of the emerging middle classes and their carbon intensity, using unique micro data from household surveys conducted in Ghana, Peru and the Philippines. We find that carbon-intensive consumption increases with wealth in all three countries, and most sharply from the fourth to the fifth middle-class quintile due to changes in travel behaviour, asset ownership and use. In Peru, this shift in the upper-middle-class quintiles translates to annual incomes of roughly USD 11,000-17,000 purchasing power parity. Environmental knowledge and concern are fairly evenly spread at mid- to high levels and do lead to more easy-entry sustainable behaviours, but they do not decrease the level of carbon emissions. To some extent, a knowledge/concern-action gap exists. In our study, social status matters less than the literature claims. Our results have two implications. First, the differentiations between developing/developed countries in the global climate debate may be outdated: It is about being part of the global middle classes or not. Second, a positive spillover from existing easy-entry sustainable behaviours to a change in carbon-intensive consumption patterns needs policy support.
    Date: 2020
  24. By: Watson, Nicole Elizabeth; Huebner, Gesche; Fell, Michael James; Shipworth, David
    Abstract: Usually consumers have a relationship with a single energy supplier. Increasingly, the option for consumers to retain their current supplier whilst taking on additional contracts with local suppliers is viewed as having the potential to support growth of local renewable energy. This study took a behavioural economic approach and conducted two pre-registered nationally representative survey experiments (n=1042, n=762). The main aims of the study were to assess the attractiveness of a multiple supplier model for British consumers and to understand the role of default effects and associated cognitive biases (loss-aversion, cognitive effort and implied endorsement) in consumers’ decisions to remain with incumbent suppliers. Results showed that participants were significantly more likely to engage with local energy suppliers under a multiple supplier model than the current single supplier model. In one experiment, consumers’ preference for adding a local supplier under a multiple supplier model was so strong that it overcame default effects. The perception that the supplier has been recommended (i.e. implied endorsement) was the most robust mechanism associated with remaining with default suppliers, suggesting that explicit endorsement of local suppliers may encourage engagement with the energy market. These findings suggest findings suggest that multiple supplier models are likely to be a promising avenue for driving the growth of local energy and opening opportunities for innovation in the British energy market.
    Date: 2020–04–30
  25. By: Oguzhan Cepni (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Haci Bayram Mah. Istiklal Cad. No:10 06050, Ankara, Turkey); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa); Cenk C. Karahan (College of Business, University of Tulsa, Tulsa, Oklahoma, United States)
    Abstract: In a local projections framework, we study the impact of oil price shocks, based on a refined approach to disentangle oil price movements, on the dynamics of the entire yield curve in nineteen emerging economies with different positions on the oil market. Responses of the term structure factors to oil market shocks are shown to differ conditional on not only the underlying sources that drive oil price, but also based on the oil-dependence of these economies. In particular, we find that oil price risk shocks put upward pressure on the level, slope, and curvature of interest rates across the board. Supply-driven shocks in oil markets cause a rise in the level of interest rates in oil-importing economies more significantly, yet the downward impact on yield curve slope is more pronounced in oil-exporting countries. Demand-driven shocks have a significant and persistent upward impact on level factors in oil-importing countries. Furthermore, the effect of precautionary demand shocks on the curvature factor is more pronounced in oil-importing countries vis-vis oil-exporters. Significance, direction, and duration of our results may guide monetary policymakers in emerging countries as well as international investors in portfolio and hedging decisions.
    Keywords: Emerging markets, Local projections, Oil price, Supply and demand shocks, Yield curve factors
    JEL: E43 E44 G12 G15 Q43
    Date: 2020–05
  26. By: Jan Stede; Nils May
    Abstract: Several countries and regions have introduced mandatory minimum distances of wind turbines to nearby residential areas, in order to increase public acceptance of wind power. Germany’s largest federal state Bavaria introduced such separation distances of ten times the height of new wind turbines in 2014. Here, we provide a novel monthly district-level dataset of construction permits for wind turbines constructed in Germany between 2010 and 2018. We use this dataset to evaluate the causal effect of introducing the Bavarian minimum distance regulation on the issuance of construction permits for wind turbines. We find that permits decreased by up to 90 percent. This decrease is in the same order of magnitude as the reduction of land area available for wind turbines. The results are in line with findings indicating that minimum distances do not increase the public acceptance of wind power, but harm the expansion of onshore wind power.
    Keywords: Onshore wind power, minimum distance, separation distance, energy transition, acceptance, panel data, difference-in-differences, causal inference, event study
    JEL: C21 Q42 R14 R15
    Date: 2020
  27. By: Joanna Kott; Jagoda Mrzyglocka-Chojnacka; Marek Kott
    Abstract: The Polish energy sector is affected by a number of formal and legal regulations, both national and European Union. Energy companies are compelled to comply with the formal and legal regulations imposed by the legislator. Distribution companies and trading companies are adjusting to their requirements. There is therefore a need for a model for assessing the impact of individual regulations on companies belonging to this sector. The paper presents the proposal of the impact model of regulations on management processes in energy companies. A review of selected legal and regulatory regulations resulting from the Energy Law, which affects energy companies, was conducted. In addition, maps of management processes in energy companies were presented before and after the introduction of the TPA principle. Obtained research results were verified by means of a questionnaire.
    Keywords: Management; Power industry; Regulation
    JEL: K32 M00 Q47 Q48
    Date: 2019–06–05
  28. By: Licht, Adrian; Escribano Saez, Alvaro; Blazsek, Szabolcs Istvan
    Abstract: Relevant works from the literature on crude oil market use structural vector autoregressive(SVAR) models with several lags to approximate the true model for the variables change in globalcrude oil production, global real economic activity and log real crude oil prices. Those variables involveseasonality, co-integration, structural changes, and outliers. We introduce nonlinear Markov-switchingscore-driven models with common trends of the multivariate t-distribution (MS-Seasonal-t-QVAR), forwhich filters are optimal according to the Kullback-Leibler divergence. We find that MS-Seasonal-t-QVAR provides a better approximation of the true data generating process and more precise short-runand long-run impulse responses than SVAR.
    Keywords: Markov Regime-Switching Models; Outliers And Structural Changes; Nonlinear Co-Integration; Score-Driven Models; Global Crude Oil Market
    JEL: C52 C51 C32
    Date: 2020–05–07
  29. By: Tomasz Serafin; Bartosz Uniejewski; Rafal Weron
    Abstract: The recent developments in combining point forecasts of day-ahead electricity prices across calibration windows have provided an extremely simple, yet a very efficient tool for improving predictive accuracy. Here, we consider two novel extensions of this concept to probabilistic forecasting: one based on Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA) applied to a set of point forecasts obtained for different calibration windows, the other on a technique dubbed Quantile Regression Machine (QRM), which first averages these point predictions, then applies quantile regression to the combined forecast. Once computed, we combine the probabilistic forecasts across calibration windows by averaging probabilities of the corresponding predictive distributions. Our results show that QRM is not only computationally more efficient, but also yields significantly more accurate distributional predictions, as measured by the aggregate pinball score and the test of conditional predictive ability. Moreover, combining probabilistic forecasts brings further significant accuracy gains.
    Keywords: Electricity price forecasting; Predictive distribution; Combining forecasts; Average probability forecast; Calibration window; Autoregression; Pinball score; Conditional predictive ability
    JEL: C14 C22 C51 C53 Q47
    Date: 2019–06–12
  30. By: Sedai, Ashish Kumar (Department of Economics, Colorado State University); Nepal, Rabindra (Department of Acconting Economics and Finance, University of Wollongong); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School)
    Abstract: This study examines the effect of quality of electrification on empowerment of women in terms of economic autonomy, agency, mobility, decision-making abilities, and time allocation in fuel collection in India. It moves beyond the consensus of counting electrified households as a measure of progress in gender parity, and analyzes how the quality of electrification affects women’s intra-household bargaining power, labor sup-ply and fuel collection time. We develop a set of indices using principal component analysis from a large cross-section of gender-disaggregated survey. We use two stage least squares instrumental variables regression to assess the causal effect of access and hours of electricity on women’s empowerment using geographic instrumental variables along with district and caste fixed effects. The results show that quality of electrification has significant positive effects on all empowerment indices. However, the effect differs at the margin of deficiency, location, living standards and education. The study recommends revisiting the paradigm of access to electrification and women empowerment by focusing on the quality of not only extensive but also intensive electrification to enhance life and economic opportunities for women and their households.
    Keywords: Women empowerment; Quality of electrification; Instrumental variables
    JEL: D13 D63 H42 Q43
    Date: 2020–04–16
  31. By: Ron Alquist; Reinhard Ellwanger; Jianjian Jin
    Abstract: We quantify the reaction of U.S. equity, bond futures, and exchange rate returns to oil price shocks driven by oil inventory news. Across most sectors, equity prices decrease in response to higher oil prices before the 2007/08 crisis but increase after it. Positive oil price shocks cause a depreciation of the U.S. dollar against a broad range of currencies but have only a modest effect on bond futures returns. The evidence suggests that changes in risk premia help to explain the time-varying effect of oil price shocks on U.S. equity returns.
    Keywords: Financial markets; Recent economic and financial developments
    JEL: D83 E44 G14 G15 Q41 Q43
    Date: 2020–03
  32. By: Mishra, Shekhar; Sinha, Avik; Sharif, Arshian; Mohd Suki, Norazah
    Abstract: The present paper endeavors to analyze and provide fresh insights from the dynamic association between tourism, transportation, economic growth and carbon emission in the United States. The analysis employs a novel Morlet’s Wavelet Approach. Precisely, the paper implements Partial and Multiple Wavelet Coherence techniques to the monthly data spanning from 2001-2017. From the frequency domain point of view, the study discovers remarkable wavelet coherence and robust lead and lag linkages. The analysis discovers significant progress in variables over frequency and time. The variables display strong but inconsistent associations between them. There exist a strong co-movement among the variables considered, which is not equal across the time scales. The study may help the policymakers and regulars to devise strategies and formulate policies pertaining to tourism development, which can contribute towards environmentally sustainable economic growth.
    Keywords: Tourism; Transportation; CO2 Emissions; Partial Wavelet Coherence; Multiple Wavelet Coherence
    JEL: L8 L83
    Date: 2020
  33. By: Siddharth Sareen (Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU), University of Sussex); Steven Wolf (Department of Natural Resources, Cornell University, USA)
    Abstract: What constitutes a sustainability transition? This question is important for analyzing energy transitions and in the broader realm of socio-material systems. We identify sustainability transitions as premised on changes in flows of legitimacy and on shifts in the accountability mechanisms that regulate these flows. Legitimacy flows to organisations through accountability regimes of inputs (standards and assessments), outputs (sanctions) and outcomes (structural and material change). This legitimacy allows organisations to access resources necessary to compete and to thrive. Changing accountability regimes lead to sectoral transitions, and the values underlying these changes determine implications for sustainability. We define accountability as the basis of legitimacy, and identify accountability relations as legitimacy tests. Conformance with norms yields legitimacy. Failing tests of accountability yields sanctions that undermine the relevant actions and actors. Contestation and adaptation of accountability mechanisms lend themselves to empirical observation. Their analysis evidences whether accountability is strongly substantiated, a hollow performance, or an expression of authoritarianism or radical liberalism. It enables characterisation of sectoral transitions in relation to sustainability, and identification of mechanisms to institutionalize accountability relations that integrate ecological limits and justice considerations into socioeconomic dynamics, to advance sustainability transitions. To demonstrate its explanatory power, we analyse solar energy uptake in Portugal, a rapidly growing niche, as a purported case of sustainability transitions. This empirical analysis juxtaposes the promise of movement to a more equitable, low-carbon energy future with institutional and material inertia. We draw on expert interviews, field observation and secondary research to apply accountability analysis to this energy transition case. Our approach targets both formal and informal means of legitimation. Assessment and sanctions serve as markers of the changing accountability regime that characterises sectoral transition.
    Date: 2020–05
  34. By: Jagoda Mrzyglocka-Chojnacka; Joanna Kott; Marek Kott
    Abstract: In this article, the processes of identification and analysis of stakeholders as well as activities and organizational roles in the form of RASCI matrix were interlinked. The goal was to design a communication management model for the whole life cycle of the energy efficiency improvement project carried out in the research and development centre of an international automotive manufacturing company. Based on the project documentation and interviews with the Project Manager, the Communication Coordinator and selected project participants, communication channels were planned and analysed. They were made conditional on (1) the identification and analysis of stakeholders (the product of which was the stakeholders' matrix); (2) the identification of organizational activities and roles based on a RASCI matrix and (3) a reporting matrix. Based on these tools, a schemes and directions of communication were proposed for each phase of the project. These schemes were created in a graphic forms. The results of the analyses show that the use of the RASCI matrix for planning communication in the project is possible, but it entails certain limitations related to the introduction of possible modifications within the matrix. However, the RASCI matrix can be considered a useful tool for planning and supporting communication in the project
    Keywords: Management; Communication model; Energy efficiency improvement project; RASCI matrix
    JEL: D71 M00 O22
    Date: 2019–05–05
  35. By: Vlastakis, Nikolaos; Triantafyllou, Athanasios; Kellard, Neil
    Abstract: The role of oil price shocks in US economic activity and inflation is controversial but a key input to current economic policy. To clarify these relations, we employ a more refined measure of oil shocks based on decomposing highly accurate realized volatility estimated using intraday oil futures data. In reconciling prior results, we find that shocks driven by price increases (decreases) are associated with rising (falling) inflation while only a symmetric volatility channel affects economic activity.
    Date: 2020–05–07
  36. By: Servaas Storm (Delft University of Technology)
    Abstract: The European UnionÕs Green Deal, a Û1 trillion, 10-year investment plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% in 2030 (relative to 1990 levels), has been hailed as the first comprehensive plan to achieve climate neutrality at a continental scale. The Deal also constitutes the UnionÕs new signature mission, providing it with a new raison dÕetre and a shared vision of green growth and prosperity for all. Because the stakes are high, a dispassionate, realistic look at the Green Deal is necessary to assess to what extent it reflects Ôwhat is politically attainableÕ and to what degree it does Ôwhat is requiredÕ in the face of continuous global warming. This paper considers the ambition, scale, substance and strategy of the Deal. It finds that the Green Deal falls short of Ôwhat is imperativeÕ but also of Ôwhat is politically possibleÕ. By choosing to make the Green Deal dependent on global finance, the European Commission itself closes down all policy space for systemic change as well as for ambitious green macroeconomics and green industrial policies, which would enable achieving climate neutrality in a socially and economically inclusive manner. Hence, Otto von Bismarck would have been as unpersuaded by the Green Deal proposal as Greta Thunberg, who dismisses it as mere Òempty wordsÓ.
    Keywords: European Green Deal; green finance; climate transition; green macroeconomics
    JEL: E60 H50 O52 Q54
    Date: 2020–03
  37. By: Silvana Mondlane; Dirk van Seventer
    Abstract: The recent discovery of large fields of natural gas in Mozambique has led to great international interest and expectations of future gains. However, many resource-rich countries have struggled to achieve long-term sustainable growth, whether because of poor management, unequal outcomes, or political conflict. Many authors argue that this 'resource curse' can be avoided with the right management tools and incentives for other sectors of the economy. We examine selected economy-wide impacts of such tools and incentives in Mozambique, using a computable general equilibrium model.
    Keywords: Social Accounting Matrix, Trade, Computable general equilibrium, Structure of production, economy-wide, natural-resource-dependent economies
    Date: 2019
  38. By: Claudiu Albulescu (CRIEF)
    Abstract: Using data on 17 listed public banks from Russia over the period 2008 to 2016, we analyze whether international oil prices affect the bank stability in an oil-dependent country. We posit that a decrease in international oil prices has a negative long-run macroeconomic impact for an oil-exporting country, which further deteriorates the bank financial stability. More specifically, a decrease in international oil prices leads for an oil-exporting country as Russia to a currency depreciation and to a deterioration of the fiscal stance. In addition, given the positive correlation of oil and stock prices documented by numerous previous studies, a decrease in international oil prices represents a negative signal for the stock markets investors, negatively affecting banks' share prices and thus, their capacity to generate sustainable earnings. In this context, the bank financial stability can be menaced. With a focus on public listed banks and using a Pool Mean Group (PMG) estimator, we show that an increase in international oil prices and in the price to book value ratio has a long-run positive effect on Russian public banks stability, and conversely. While positive oil-price shocks contribute to bank stability in the long run, an opposite effect is recorded for negative shocks. However, no significant impact is documented in the short run. Our findings are robust to different bank stability specifications, different samples and control variables.
    Date: 2020–04
  39. By: Mulako Kabisa; Brian P. Mulenga; Hambulo Ngoma; Mercy Mupeta Kandulu
    Abstract: In Zambia, agricultural land expansion is responsible for 90 percent of forest cover loss (Mabeta, Mweemba, and Mwitwa 2018), followed by settlement expansion and infrastructure development; its annual deforestation estimated between 167,000 and 300,000 hectares is among the highest worldwide. Charcoal is becoming an increasingly important driver of deforestation and forest degradation due to its increasing role as a cooking and space-heating energy source, predominantly among urban households. The erratic and limited supply of electricity in recent times, coupled with increased electricity tariffs, limited access, acceptability, and prohibitive costs of alternative energy sources has increased urban demand for charcoal—a situation likely to continue in the foreseeable future. The heightened demand for charcoal, which will continue to increase, has far-reaching environmental consequences. This study sought to find ways in which the charcoal value chain (CVC) can be made more sustainable in Zambia, with a view of reducing charcoal-induced deforestation and global warming. It meant to answer the questions of how charcoal production and trade is governed, lessons learned from constraints experienced in making charcoal production sustainable, and the opportunities for “greening” the charcoal value chain1 . This was done through extensive review of relevant literature, both grey and published, the 2015 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey (LCMS) data, and key informant interviews (KII). Zambia has a comprehensive policy framework on sustainable management of forestry resources, which recognizes that increased charcoal use is driven by the desire to meet household energy needs and is a livelihood option for many of the poor. The main challenges in sustainably managing resources and greening the CVC include the unorganised nature of production making it difficult to organise and monitor production, limited financing, and weak enforcement and compliance with regulations. There are also cultural myths associated with the use of charcoal to cook food, with some having a clear preference for using it to cook traditional food because it gives the food good taste and/or texture (Tembo, Mulenga, and Sitko 2015; Chidumayo 2002). There are many opportunities to implement sustainable charcoal production for the short- and medium term including financing sustainable charcoal production interventions to facilitate: 1) forming charcoal associations that can be the eyes on the ground for the Forestry Department; 2) sensitization campaigns on sustainably produced charcoal and its importance; 3) providing support to producers by setting up woodlots and nurseries for fast growing species with irrigation support for biomass; 4) support for the development of improved kilns; 5) forestry extension to raise awareness on sustainable production practices and the rules and regulations on licensing; 6) promotion of efficient cookstoves for the general public; and 7) investigating the seepage of charcoal into the region—an area that is still overlooked as a driver of production. In the long term, there is a need to provide alternative livelihoods appropriate for the agroecological zones to help producers transition from charcoal production, because poverty and lack of employment are some of the main drivers for charcoal production.
    Keywords: Food Security and Poverty, International Development
    Date: 2020–01–09

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