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on Energy Economics |
By: | Suleman, Shafic |
Abstract: | The global natural gas industry in emerging oil and gas producing countries faces the challenge of restructuring and regulations, making industry conduct revaluation inevitable. The main concern in restructuring the natural gas industry in these economies is how to break previously vertically integrated companies into separate business entities under an appropriate market structure along the gas value chain. There are two schools of thoughts on how to restructure the natural gas industry. The traditional school of thought favours a vertically integrated structure and the liberal school of thought advocates for competitive-based structures encompassing different regulatory reforms including ownership unbundling. The natural gas industry in Ghana, though nascent, is growing due mainly to rising demand for electricity, at about 5.8% annually. Currently GNPC owns the upstream gas, midstream infrastructures and champions final gas delivery to downstream consumers. Gas price harmonization, easing contractual agreements, maintaining the survival of GNGC, and energy security reasons are among the policy factors that seem to favour a state-owned vertically integrated structure. The aim of this paper is to examine and determine the industry structure that is optimal to sustain Ghana energy supply mix. The paper offers two natural gas industry structure models to describe the effect of unbundling infrastructure ownership of natural gas along its value chain on energy supply mix in Ghana. The paper suggests maintaining the aggregating role of GNPC is appropriate. However, the paper recommends unbundling infrastructure ownership from upstream natural gas owners. Thus, the Gas Processing Plants and Ghana National Gas Corporation (GNPC) transmission pipelines need an independent entity to operate the GNGC transmission pipeline as the National Gas Transmission Utility (NGTU) with open access allow IPPs equal access to natural gas at the market hubs. |
Keywords: | Vertical Integration, Unbundling, Natural Gas Industry, restructuring. |
JEL: | L1 L11 L5 L51 |
Date: | 2020–03–18 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99155&r=all |
By: | Burke, Andrew; Sinha, Anish Kumar |
Abstract: | The objective of this study is to project the introduction of battery-electric and fuel cell technologies into the medium-duty and heavy-duty vehicle markets and to identify which markets will be most suitable for each of technologies and the factors (technical, economic, operational) which will be most critical to their successful introduction. The use of renewable energy sources to generate electricity and produce hydrogen are key considerations of the analysis. The present status of the battery-electric and hydrogen/fuel cell technologies are reviewed in detail and the futures of these technologies are projected. The design and performance of various types of buses and trucks are described based on detailed simulations of the various electrified vehicles. The total cost of ownership (TCO) of each bus/truck type were calculated using EXCEL spreadsheets and their market prospects projected for 2020-2040. It was concluded that before any of the electrified vehicles can be cost competitive with the corresponding diesel powered vehicle, the unit cost of batteries must be $80-100/kWh and the unit cost of the fuel cell system must be $80-100/kW. The long term economics of battery-electric buses and trucks looks more favorable than that for the fuel cell/hydrogen option if the range requirement (miles) for the vehicle can be met using batteries. This is primarily due to the significantly lower energy operating cost ($/mi) using electricity than hydrogen. View the NCST Project Webpage |
Keywords: | Engineering, Battery-electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles, trucks, buses, sustainable fueling, hydrogen storage and production |
Date: | 2020–03–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7s25d8bc&r=all |
By: | Surender Kumar (Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics); Shunsuke Managi (Urban Institute & Departments of Urban and Environmental Engineering,Kyushu University, 744 Motooka, Nishi-ku,Fukuoka); Rakesh Kumar Jain (Department of Business Economics South Campus, University of Delhi & Indian Railways, New Delhi India) |
Abstract: | This study shows potential cost savings by adoption of emission trading in India. At the Paris Agreement, India pledged to reduce CO2 emissions intensity by about 30-35 percent by 2030 relative to 2005. Applying joint production function of electricity and CO2 emissions, we find that India could have saved about US$ 5 to 8 billion, if she had constituted an emission trading system, with the provision of banking and borrowing over the study period of 5 years. To our knowledge, this is the first study measuring foregone gains due to absence of a nationwide carbon emission-trading program in coal fired thermal power sector, using an ex-post analysis. |
JEL: | Q54 Q56 O13 |
Date: | 2019–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cde:cdewps:302&r=all |
By: | Melkamu Daniel , Aemiro (CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics) |
Abstract: | This paper provides a joint analysis of multiple fuel types and use choices and explores the socio-demographic and housing characteristics that affect household fuel use decisions. Using household survey data from urban Ethiopia, this paper estimates a mixed multiple discretecontinuous extreme value (MMDCEV) model. The results indicate that households with a female head are more likely to combine traditional biomass fuels (firewood and charcoal) and electricity for different uses, while households with less-educated heads, larger families, and poorer living conditions (fewer rooms) tend to rely on traditional biomass fuels. The results also show that households with an individual electricity meter are significantly less likely to use charcoal. Further, the results show that the satiation effect from increased use of a fuel is relatively higher for firewood and lower for electricity. The findings in this paper can be useful to inform energy policy, including more effective targeting of subsidies for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) purchases and private electricity meter installations, and for interventions that promote adoption of improved biomass cookstoves. |
Keywords: | Energy expenditure; fuel choice; fuel substitution; multiple fuel use |
JEL: | C25 D13 O13 Q23 Q42 R21 |
Date: | 2020–03–27 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:slucer:2020_003&r=all |
By: | Claire Alestra (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, EHESS, Ecole Centrale, AMSE, Marseille, France); Gilbert Cette (Banque de France and Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, EHESS, Ecole Centrale, AMSE); Valérie Chouard (Banque de France); Rémy Lecat (Banque de France) |
Abstract: | This paper provides a tool to build climate change scenarios to forecast Gross Domestic Product (GDP), modelling both GDP damage due to climate change and the GDP impact of mitigating measures. It adopts a supply-side, long-term view, with 2060 and 2100 horizons. It is a global projection tool (30 countries / regions), with assumptions and results both at the world and the country / regional level. Five different types of energy inputs are taken into account according to their CO2 emission factors. Full calibration is possible at each stage, with estimated or literature-based default parameters. In particular, Total Factor Productivity (TFP), which is a major source of uncertainty on future growth and hence on CO2 emissions, is endogenously determined, with a rich modeling encompassing energy prices, investment prices, education, structural reforms and decreasing return to the employment rate. We present four scenarios: Business As Usual (BAU), with stable energy prices relative to GDP price; Decrease of Renewable Energy relative Price (DREP), with the relative price of non CO2 emitting electricity decreasing by 2% a year; Low Carbon Tax (LCT) scenario with CO2 emitting energy relative prices increasing by 1% per year; High Carbon Tax (HCT) scenario with CO2 emitting energy relative prices increasing by 3% per year. At the 2100 horizon, global GDP incurs a loss of 12% in the BAU, 10% in the DREP, 8% in the Low Carbon Tax scenario and 7% in the High Carbon Tax scenario. This scenario exercise illustrates both the "tragedy of the horizon", as gains from avoided climate change damage net of damage from mitigating policies are negative in the medium-term and positive in the long-term, and the "tragedy of the commons", as climate change damage is widely dispersed and particularly severe in developing economies, while mitigating policies should be implemented in all countries, especially in advanced countries modestly affected by climate change but with large CO2 emission contributions. |
Keywords: | climate, global warming, energy prices, government policy, growth, productivity, long-term projections |
JEL: | H23 Q54 E23 E37 O11 O47 O57 Q43 Q48 |
Date: | 2020–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2007&r=all |
By: | Olivier Rebenaque (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, CEC - Chaire Economie du Climat - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL) |
Abstract: | By generating their own electricity with photovoltaic (PV) panels, households are less dependent on the grid. However, because there is a mismatch between PV generation and consumption, the economic benefits from the bill savings are usually low compared to the economic compensation of the excess electricity fed into the grid. The economic benefits may drop by the implementation of Time-of-Use tariffs or capacity tariff because the prices and the peak load might be higher in the evening at night when PV generation does not occur. Stationary batteries might increase PV self-consumption by storing PV production when electricity prices are low and releasing it during peak prices. However, Feed-in-tariffs applied on the excess generation does not encourage prosumers to invest in a battery. In this paper, we assess the profitability of a PV investment under the current French subsidy scheme. Then, we propose an alternative policy which guarantees an upfront purchase subsidy for the PV and battery investments but without Feed-in tariffs. Based on this alternative policy, we simulate economic benefits from various PV and battery capacities with different pricings. We show that PV self-consumption investment is more profitable with Feed-in tariffs than with a battery premium under Time-of-Use and capacity tariff. Nonetheless, the current subsidy scheme is costly compared to the implementation of a battery premium. Thus, some policy recommendations are provided to improve subsidy scheme. |
Keywords: | Battery storage profitability,self-consumption,network tariff,Simulation model,LCOE,energy policy |
Date: | 2020–02 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02511136&r=all |
By: | Sushama Murty (Jawaharlal Nehru University); Resham Nagpal (Jawaharlal Nehru University) |
Abstract: | This paper estimates the marginal abatement costs (MACs) for CO2 emission in the Indian coal-based thermal power sector employing a non-parametric by-production approach. The estimates so obtained are compared with those from weak and joint-disposabilitybased approaches. In contrast to the other two approaches, by-production approach computes the MAC as the reduction in electricity generation necessitated by a reduction in coal (heat) input when emission generation is reduced by one unit. Under this approach, the estimates of the reduction in heat input per-unit reduction in emission generation lie in a small range around the same computed for the true data-generating process. The MACs varied widely between 58.92 to 102.28 USD/metric-ton of CO2, with a mean value of 85 USD/metric-ton in 2015, indicating a tremendous potential for emission-trading or a Pigouvian tax as policy tools for correcting the allocative ineciencies in this sector. |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:citdwp:19-06&r=all |
By: | Walid Matar (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
Abstract: | This paper expands on a previously-presented methodology that merges the physical properties of energy with microeconomic principles: The physical side of the model informs how much electricity is used to satisfy services that people desire, while the microeconomic side imposes a utility function to represent household satisfaction. This paper adds energy efficiency investment to the price-based behavioral demand response and presents results representative of the long-run steady-state. It examines several electricity pricing schemes and energy efficiency options, with the costs and benefits of each option explicitly modeled in the physical representation. |
Keywords: | Microeconomics, Electricity pricing schemes, Economic modelling, Household satisfaction |
Date: | 2020–03–24 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2020-dp07&r=all |
By: | Alexander Krenek; Mark Sommer (WIFO); Margit Schratzenstaller |
Abstract: | One element of the proposed European Green Deal is a border carbon adjustment mechanism. The introduction of a BCA would allow the EU to phase out current carbon leakage provisions of the ETS and to auction off all emission allowances, thus rendering the ETS a more effective unilateral tool to price and reduce carbon emissions. In theory a BCA would be a perfect instrument to ensure a level playing field for domestic and foreign producers, thus avoiding potential carbon leakage. Until now, however, the legal and administrative issues of implementation have been deemed too huge to overcome. We derive a WTO-compatible (full) border tax adjustment (BTA) design that could be implemented in the near future, and we estimate potential EU BCA and BTA revenues using a dynamic new Keynesian (DYNK) model. The BTA design of our choice would generate substantial and stable revenues that could be used as innovative sustainability-oriented own resource to finance the EU budget. We find that estimated revenues would suffice to finance between 5 and 7 percent of the EU's expenditure in the coming Multiannual Financial Framework period 2021-2027 and up to 16 percent in the year 2050. This new revenue source would allow member states to reduce their current contributions to the EU budget accordingly and would thus create space to cut other more distortionary taxes at the national level, enabling an EU-wide supranational sustainability-enhancing tax shift. Thus, a BTA could contribute to tackle both environmental and fiscal challenges currently facing the EU. |
Keywords: | EU budget, sustainability-oriented taxation, border carbon adjustment, border tax adjustment, EU revenue system, EU own resources, emission trading system, carbon pricing |
Date: | 2020–03–25 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2020:i:596&r=all |
By: | Gao, Shen (Center for Economics, Finance and Management Studies, Hunan University, China.); Hou, Chenghan (Center for Economics, Finance and Management Studies, Hunan University, China.); Nguyen, Bao H. (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania) |
Abstract: | The growing disintegration between the natural gas and oil prices, together with shale revolution and market financialization, lead to continued fundamental changes in the natural gas markets. To capture these structural changes, this paper considers a wide set of highly flexible time-varying parameter models to evaluate the out-of-sample forecasting performance of the natural gas spot prices across the US, European and Japanese markets. The results show that for both Japan and EU markets, the best forecasting performance is found when the model allows for drastic changes in the conditional mean and gradual changes in the conditional volatility. For the US market, however, no model performs systematically better than the simple autoregressive model. Full sample estimation results further con- firm that allowing t-distributed error is important in modelling the natural gas prices, especially for EU markets. |
Keywords: | natural gas price; structural breaks; forecasting; time-varying pa- rameter; Markov switching; stochastic volatility. |
JEL: | C32 E32 Q43 |
Date: | 2020 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tas:wpaper:32412&r=all |
By: | Koichiro Ito; Shuang Zhang |
Abstract: | Inefficient energy pricing hinders economic development in many countries. We examine long-run effects of a recent heating reform in China that replaced a commonly-used fixed-payment system with individually-metered pricing. Using staggered policy rollouts and administrative data on household-level daily heating consumption, we find that the reform induced long-run reductions in heating usage and generated substantial welfare gains. Consumers gradually learned how to conserve heating effectively, making short-run evaluations underestimate the policy impacts. Our results suggest that energy price reform is an effective way to improve allocative efficiency and air quality in developing countries, where unmetered-inefficient pricing is still ubiquitous. |
JEL: | L38 L51 L97 O1 O38 O44 Q4 Q41 Q5 Q53 Q56 |
Date: | 2020–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26853&r=all |
By: | Aimée Aguilar Jaber (OECD); Brilé Anderson (OECD); Daniel Nachtigall (OECD); Fatoumata Ngom (OECD) |
Abstract: | The Paris Agreement invites signatory countries to formulate and communicate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS). This report compares the experience of three developed countries that have communicated LT-LEDS within the framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): France (Stratégie National Bas-Carbone), Germany (Klimaschutzplan 2050) and the United Kingdom (Clean Growth Strategy). The report analyses the three stages of the LT-LEDS process in detail: a) the institutional and technical process to create the LT-LEDS; b) the document strategy resulting from the process; and c) the design of specific mechanisms to facilitate implementation of the LT-LEDS. While LT-LEDS will reflect countries own "common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances", it is hoped that the lessons and messages included in this report can be useful to other developed and developing countries interested in creating and implementing LT-LEDS. |
Keywords: | Climate Change, LT-LEDS, Paris Agreement, UNFCCC |
JEL: | H23 O44 Q01 Q52 Q54 Q56 Q58 R11 |
Date: | 2020–04–02 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:160-en&r=all |
By: | Partha Sen |
Abstract: | Macroeconomics deals with economics at the aggregate level. This could be at a national level or the interaction between nations. Production of output necessarily involves pollution and degrading the environment. Therefore, environmental issues enter inevitably. Some problems that have been highlighted in the literature are surveyed here. It has been argued that a poor country deliberately lowers its environmental standards that enables it to steal jobs from other countries. What is the theoretical underpinning and the evidence for this assertion? The evidence is very weak in support of this. Also, in the fight against climate change, the poorer countries claim exemption from tightening their emissions norms, because of their poverty. Although equity demands this, it could pose serious challenges to fighting climate change – oil producers would pump oil faster, if they foresee it becoming useless. A piecemeal approach is thus infeasible. A more basic question is how to introduce natural resource use in national income accounts to give meaning to the notion of sustainability? National income accounts do not take into account non-market activities. Some progress has been made in the theory and empirical implementation of sustainability by including non-market activities. A lot of work has been done but a lot more still needs to be done here. |
Keywords: | macroeconomics and environment, trade and environment, green paradox, genuine saving, comprehensive wealth |
JEL: | Q50 F10 F20 |
Date: | 2020 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8159&r=all |
By: | Mignamissi, Dieudonné |
Abstract: | This paper tests the pollution emissions and institutions quality nexus in Africa, through political regime and governance indicators. We apply the system GMM estimator on a dynamic panel of 50 African countries over the period 1990-2014. The key finding suggests that a reinforcement of legislation through the improvement of institutional quality has a negative and significant effect on pollution emissions. Moreover, the findings validate the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis in Africa. The results call for some policy recommendations in environmental regulation for African economies, including strengthening of institutional quality, adoption of specialized investment promotion agencies on the attractiveness of green FDI, implementation of incentive mechanisms in favour of companies that have adopted greening program of their activities |
Keywords: | Pollution emissions, institutions, Africa |
JEL: | Q52 Q56 |
Date: | 2020–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:99017&r=all |
By: | F.H.J. Polzin; M.W.J.L. Sanders |
Abstract: | In models exploring energy transition pathways, existing investment flows are contrasted with predictions for investments needs to indicate a ‘financing-gap’ for the European energy transition. The authors draw on an in-depth analysis and comparison of the main scenarios being employed to forecast investments until 2050 as well as an analysis of the literature on the sources of finance for renewable energy. Long-term projections do not capture the supply or demand of specific sources of finance needed to cover the whole innovation chain. Our analysis reveals that under the individual investment and lending criteria/mandates the money is available. However, policy uncertainty strongly distorts investment decision making. Especially institutional investors and lenders such as pension funds and banks shy away from investments in the energy transition because of expected (policy) discontinuities and the risk of stranded assets. Moreover, more risk-bearing equity capital to finance the early stages of innovative clean energy technologies is needed to complement existing large-scale investments in existing technologies to allow for an effective and efficient mitigation that is in line with the major scenarios. Based on the analysis we develop a matrix that indicates the role for different sources of finance and new intermediation channels in the energy transition and how they need to be engaged.. |
Keywords: | Clean energy investments, mitigation pathways, sources of finance, financial system, empirical review |
Date: | 2019–08 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:1918&r=all |
By: | Sanguinetti, Angela; Kurani, Ken |
Abstract: | Electrification of transportation network companies (TNCs; e.g., Uber and Lyft) presents a path for reduced emissions as well as potential benefits to drivers via reduced costs for fueling and vehicle maintenance. This report describes 732 TNC PEV drivers in the United States in terms of their demographic characteristics, motivations for driving PEVs on TNCs, charging patterns, and ideas to improve the experience of driving PEVs on TNCs. Greater understanding of these early adopters can inform strategies to promote further adoption. The economic benefits of fuel and maintenance savings associated with PEVs featured in drivers’ reported motivations for PEV adoption. Most BEV and PHEV drivers reported charging their PEV every day, most often at home and overnight, and most were willing to charge once or more while actively driving on TNCs. A large cluster of TNC PEV drivers reported predominately using public DC fast charging, indicating a heavy reliance on public charging infrastructure. Range limitations topped the list of reasons why PHEV drivers did not opt for a BEV, and increased range topped the list of PEV drivers’ wishes to better support PEVs on TNCs. The next most common wish was for more charger locations. The third and fourth ranked wishes were financial bonuses for trip targets and more pre-trip information, which are more exclusively under the control of TNCs. |
Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, electric vehicle, adoption, ride-hailing, ride-sharing, transportation network company |
Date: | 2020–03–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1203t5fj&r=all |
By: | Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska; Joanna Kott; Marek Kott |
Abstract: | A holistic approach regarding the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) of the sector of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) in Poland, with particular regard to passenger electric vehicles (EVs), has been proposed to explore and evaluate the current state and to propose some future actions lines towards sustainable development in transportation. The most important problems faced currently by the Polish EVs market include unstable and unclear regulations that may discourage both: producers and buyers from engaging in this market segment. Secondly, the much higher prices of EVs in comparison to the conventional vehicles together with many unsolved issues with the batteries and charging stations belong to the most significant barriers of adoption. The formulated portfolio of actions towards enabling sustainable development of transportation in the segment of passenger vehicles proposes the implementation of mini-maxi strategy that would minimize the current weaknesses by maximizing the potential opportunities of the market. |
Keywords: | e-mobility; sustainable transport; electric vehicles; plug-in electric vehicles; hybrid electric vehicles; policy regulations; SWOT analysis |
JEL: | D40 L10 L88 L91 L94 L98 |
Date: | 2020–03–25 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahh:wpaper:worms2004&r=all |
By: | Claudiu Albulescu (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers) |
Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of the novel coronavirus and crude oil prices on the United States (US) economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Using daily data for the period January 21-March 13, 2020, our Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model shows that the new infection cases reported at global level, and the death ratio, have no significant effect on the US EPU, whereas the oil price negative dynamics leads to increased uncertainty. However, analyzing the situation outside China, we discover that both new case announcements and the COVID-19 associated death ratio have a positive influence on the US EPU. |
Keywords: | coronavirus,economic policy uncertainty,COVID-19,oil prices,bound tests |
Date: | 2020–03–16 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02509450&r=all |
By: | Izabela Styczynska; Karolina Zubel; Grzegorz Poniatowski |
Abstract: | EuroPACE is an innovative tool designed to make home renovation simple, affordable and reliable for all Europeans by combining affordable financing with people-centric technical assistance. EuroPACE offers 100% up-front financing that can be repaid over a long term of up to 25 years. The innovation lies in the collection and repayment mechanism – financing is attached to the property and is repaid regularly with charges linked to a property. Homeowners are offered logistical and technical support throughout the process and access to trained and qualified con-tractors. Thus, EuroPACE overcomes the main barriers to home renovation – lack of financing, technical knowledge and complexity of the works. The concept of EuroPACE is inspired by the success of a financing model called Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE), launched in California in 2008. In the United States (US), the PACE market reached over USD 6 billion in funded projects, including the retrofit of over 220,000 homes, which resulted in more than 50,000 new local jobs and the creation of hundreds new companies. |
Keywords: | residential building stock, energy efficiency financing, domestic renewable energy supply, retrofit programmes and incentives |
JEL: | D14 H31 O13 O18 Q58 R20 |
Date: | 2019 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sec:report:0499&r=all |
By: | König, Jörg |
Abstract: | 98 Prozent des weltweiten CO2-Ausstoßes findet außerhalb Deutschlands statt - Tendenz steigend. Klimaschutz als globales öffentliches Gut sollte demnach möglichst weltweit, zumindest europaweit, koordiniert werden. Nationale Alleingänge wie die deutsche Energiewende helfen wenig und können sogar kontraproduktiv wirken. Die Herausgeber des Wall Street Journal betitelten, den parallelen Kern- und Kohleausstieg vor Augen, die deutsche Energiewende Anfang 2019 als "world's dumbest energy policy". Nach zwei Jahrzehnten deutscher Planwirtschaft in der Energie- und Klimapolitik muss zwingend umgesteuert werden, sollen die Klimaschutzziele - ohne Wohlstandseinbußen, Bevormundung und Zwangsaskese - zielsicher und kosteneffizient erreicht werden. |
Keywords: | Energie |
Date: | 2019 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:smwpun:02&r=all |
By: | P.W.J. de Bijl; Helanya Fourie |
Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship between local public ownership and the sustainability mission of companies in the energy transition. Public ownership may matter due to "contractual incompleteness" where legislation and regulation fall short in dealing with market failures or addressing public interests. Ownership provides a measure of influence and control over the mission and strategy of a company, which is important considering the unanticipated consequences of the energy transition. The role of municipal ownership is underlined by the growing popularity of district heating and cooling systems and the impact of the energy transition on the urban environment. Highlights • It’s impossible to anticipate and regulate all consequences of the energy transition • Market failure may arise due contractual incompleteness • Public ownership can align the objectives of energy companies with public interests • Spatial impacts of the energy transition require shareholders with local interests |
Keywords: | energy transition, public ownership, incomplete contracts |
Date: | 2019–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:1924&r=all |
By: | Samuel Egbetokun (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria); Evans S. Osabuohien (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria); Temidayo Akinbobola (Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria); Olaronke Onanuga (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria); Obindah Gershon (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria); Victoria Okafor (CEPDeR, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria) |
Abstract: | The interaction between environmental pollution and economic growth determines the achievement of the green growth objective of developing economies. An economy turns around the inverted U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) when pollution is effectively dampened by social, political and economic factors as such economy grows. Thus, this study examines the EKC considering the impact of institutional quality on six variables of environmental pollution [carbon dioxide (CO2), Nitrous Oxide (N2O), Suspended Particulate Maters (SPM), Rainfall, Temperature and Total Green House Emission (TGH)] using the case of Nigeria. The EKC model includes population density, education expenditure, foreign direct investment, and gross domestic investment as control variables, and it was analysed using the Auto Regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) econometric technique, which has not been applied in the literature on Nigeria. The results, inter alia, indicate that there is EKC for CO2 and SPM. This implies that the green growth objective can be pursued in Nigeria with concerted efforts. Other environmental pollution indicators did not exert significant influence on economic growth. Therefore, it is recommended that Nigeria’s institutional quality be strengthened to limit environmental pollution in light of economic growth. |
Keywords: | EKC, Economic Growth, Environmental Pollution, Institutional Quality |
JEL: | C52 O38 O40 O55 P37 |
Date: | 2019–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:19/059&r=all |
By: | Raphaël Homayoun Boroumand (City University London); Stéphane Goutte (LED - Laboratoire d'Economie Dionysien - UP8 - Université Paris 8 Vincennes-Saint-Denis); Thomas Péran (Paris School of Business); Thomas Porcher (ESG Research Lab - ESG Management School) |
Abstract: | This paper seeks to pattern a non-driven geographical classication of French departmental territorial units based on both mobility behavior and passenger car eet composition. With no mathematical regression analysis but applying datamining methodology to behavior, consumption and geography variables, we have grouped French territorial units into 8 clusters with similar characteristics. The main results reveal that commuters' behavior with respect to the choice of transport mode varies substantially across clusters (rural and highly rural, urban and highly urban clusters, ...). Conversely, the structure of the French vehicle eet and French car purchases in terms of engines, tax horsepower and CO2 emissions are similar. this nding should enable state organizations to implement dierentiated public policies for environmental and industrial sectors. Alternatively, our paper should help industrial groups to better deploy their economic strategies in line with environmental concerns. |
Keywords: | Datamining,Cluster,CO2 emissions,Worker mobility,Passenger cars,France |
Date: | 2019 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01968001&r=all |
By: | Massimiliano Caporin (Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padova); Zahra Mohammadi Nikpour (DSEA, University of Padova); Paola Valbonesi (Department of Economics and Management University of Padova and Higher School of Economics, National Research University (HSE-NRU), Moscow) |
Abstract: | We empirically study the relationship between oil price uncertainty and conflict incidence by using different Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) models, also augmented with Heterogeneous (VHAR) components. We build two measures for oil price uncertainty and investigate the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) interstate conflict, civil conflict and terrorist attacks data. Our results show that uncertainty in the oil market increases the incidence of conflict in the region. By further decomposing the model for OPEC and non-OPEC members of the region, we find that while the OPEC members immunise themselves against conflict, oil price uncertainty affects the conflict in non-OPEC members positively. |
Keywords: | Conflict, Natural Resources, Oil Prices, SVAR |
JEL: | D74 E31 F51 Q34 C32 O13 |
Date: | 2020–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pad:wpaper:0250&r=all |
By: | Xin Sheng (Lord Ashcroft International Business School, Anglia Ruskin University, Chelmsford, CM1 1SQ, United Kingdom); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Qiang Ji (Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China) |
Abstract: | Using local projection methods, this paper employs monthly panel data from 1989 to 2017 to examine both linear and nonlinear impulse responses of macroeconomic uncertainty to structural shocks to global oil production, aggregate demand, oil-market-specific demand and speculative demand in a large group of 55 economies. We find that both oil supply and demand shocks are important drivers of uncertainty. There is strong evidence that the impacts of oil price shocks on macroeconomic uncertainty are regime-dependent and contingent on the states of investor sentiments and perceived volatility in financial markets. The responses of economic uncertainty to oil shocks, especially demand-side shocks, appear to experience a dramatic change in the post-Global Financial Crisis period. |
Keywords: | Oil shocks, uncertainty, local projections, regime-dependent |
JEL: | C22 Q02 |
Date: | 2020–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:202024&r=all |
By: | Debnath, Ramit; darby, Sarah; Bardhan, Ronita; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Sunikka-Blank, Minna |
Abstract: | Text-based data sources like narratives and stories have become increasingly popular as critical insight generator in energy research and social science. However, their implications in policy application usually remain superficial and fail to fully exploit state-of-the-art resources which digital era holds for text analysis. This paper illustrates the potential of deep-narrative analysis in energy policy research using text analysis tools from the cutting-edge domain of computational social sciences, notably topic modelling. We argue that a nested application of topic modelling and grounded theory in narrative analysis promises advances in areas where manual-coding driven narrative analysis has traditionally struggled with directionality biases, scaling, systematisation and repeatability. The nested application of the topic model and the grounded theory goes beyond the frequentist approach of narrative analysis and introduces insight generation capabilities based on the probability distribution of words and topics in a text corpus. In this manner, our proposed methodology deconstructs the corpus and enables the analyst to answer research questions based on the foundational element of the text data structure. We verify the theoretical and epistemological fit of the proposed nested methodology through a meta-analysis of a state-of-the-art bibliographic database on energy policy and computational social science. We find that the nested application contributes to the literature gap on the need for multidisciplinary polyvalence methodologies that can systematically include qualitative evidence into policymaking. |
Date: | 2020–03–27 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hvcb5&r=all |
By: | Melkamu Daniel , Aemiro Melkamu Daniel (CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics) |
Abstract: | In this paper, we seek to investigate heterogeneity in households’ valuation of electricity contract attributes that reflect demand-side flexibility in the Swedish residential sector. Using stated preference data generated from a choice experiment, we estimate a mixed logit model in willingness-to-pay space and derive individual-specific conditional mean valuations for contract attributes which include various load controls and distribution of electricity consumption information. We perform a posterior analysis and identify different segments based on the monetary values households attach to the contract attributes. We find that a large proportion of households asks for substantial compensation to accept various load controls and to share their electricity consumption information. However, some households are willing to share their electricity consumption information and ask for relatively lower compensation to allow load controls. We also find that some households that accept load controls at a relatively low compensation require a sizeable compensation to share their electricity consumption information, and vice versa. From the perspective of the contract providers, these findings suggest that information-optional contracts can generate more customers than contracts that bundle households’ consumption information with various load controls. |
Keywords: | Choice experiment; demand flexibility; direct load control; electricity contract; household heterogeneity |
JEL: | D12 Q41 Q48 Q51 |
Date: | 2020–03–27 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:slucer:2020_002&r=all |
By: | - |
Abstract: | En este documento se presenta información relevante de la industria eléctrica de los ocho países que conforman el Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA). En esta publicación se consideran dos grupos de países: a) los seis países que integran el Mercado Eléctrico Regional de América Central se incluyen en la sigla SIEPAC (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua y Panamá), y b) en la sigla SICA se incluyen los ocho países que conforman el organismo de integración referido (los seis ya mencionados, SIEPAC, más Belice y la República Dominicana). Se presentan cuadros regionales y nacionales con datos estadísticos de la industria eléctrica, actualizados a 2018, que contienen información de los segmentos de producción y distribución de electricidad, de los dos mercados relevantes de electricidad (mercados mayoristas y regulados) y de las transacciones regionales (para los países del SIEPAC) y binacionales de electricidad (para las transacciones de México hacia Belice y Guatemala). |
Keywords: | ELECTRICIDAD, ENERGIA ELECTRICA, ESTADISTICAS DE ENERGIA, INDUSTRIA ELECTRICA, MERCADOS, RENDIMIENTO ENERGETICO, OBJETIVOS DE DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, ELECTRICITY, ELECTRIC POWER, ENERGY STATISTICS, ELECTRICAL INDUSTRY, MARKETS, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS |
Date: | 2020–03–25 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col094:45299&r=all |
By: | Fleisher, Belton M. (Ohio State University); McGuire, William H. (University of Washington Tacoma); Wang, Xiaojun (University of Hawaii at Manoa); Zhao, Min Qiang (Xiamen University) |
Abstract: | We investigate the effect of rising labor costs on induced technological change in China's secondary industry. While previous studies have focused primarily on induced technology change in agriculture and in energy production/environmental protection, there has been little evidence relating to China's adjustments as rising labor costs affect its global competitiveness in the manufacturing sector. Building on insights developed in a rich literature, we propose a model linking changes in labor productivity to changes in labor costs, and the availability of physical capital. Importantly, we derive testable hypotheses to distinguish induced innovation from standard substitution of capital for labor under fixed technology. These hypotheses are tested using both firm- and provincial-level data. Our empirical results support the hypothesis that rising wages have induced labor-saving innovation in China, at least in the decade of the 1990s, but less so or not at all after the middle of the next decade. |
Keywords: | induced innovation, labor productivity growth, China |
JEL: | O30 D22 D24 D33 |
Date: | 2020–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13072&r=all |
By: | Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier |
Abstract: | In this paper, I investigate whether and how banks align green words with deeds in terms of credit allocation across more or less carbon-intensive industries in France. I use a rich dataset of bank credit exposures across some fifty industries and two size classes of borrowing firms for the main banking groups operating in France, which I merge with information on industries' greenhouse gas emission intensities and a score for banks' self-reported climate-related commitments over 2010-2017. I find evidence that higher levels of self-reported climate commitments by banks are associated with less lending to large corporates in the five brownest industries. However, lending to SMEs across more or less carbon-intensive industries remained unrelated to banks' commitments to green their business. Since SMEs are not required to report on their carbon emissions, while large firms are, these findings suggest that devising an appropriate carbon reporting framework for small firms is likely to enhance the decarbonization of bank lending. |
Keywords: | : Green banks, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Climate Change. |
JEL: | G21 Q54 |
Date: | 2019 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:743&r=all |
By: | Julia Bok; Evens Salies (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques) |
Abstract: | Pour limiter ses émissions de gaz à effet de serre, la France s’est engagée à réduire la part des sources d’énergie fossile dans son mix énergétique. Différents moyens sont envisagés dans la loi de transition énergétique jusqu’en 2030, 2012 étant l’année de référence (Assemblée Nationale, 2015). Le premier est la baisse de la consommation primaire d’énergie fossile de 30% tout en portant la part des sources d’énergie renouvelables (hydroélectricité incluse) à 32% de la consommation d’énergie finale brute. Le second est l’amélioration de l’efficience énergétique : consommer moins d’énergie finale (– 20%) à satisfaction des besoins de l’économie inchangée. [Premier paragraphe] |
Keywords: | Transformation numérique; Secteur de l’énergie; Gaz à effet de serre |
Date: | 2018–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/60sgjahunh9dkqd8c1s048perp&r=all |
By: | Raouf Boucekkine; Giorgio Fabbri; Salvatore Federico; Fausto Gozzi |
Abstract: | We construct a spatiotemporal frame for the study of optimal growth under transboundary pollution. Space is continuous and polluting emissions originate in the intensity of use of the production input. Pollution ows across locations following a diffusion process. The objective functional of the economy is to set the optimal production policy over time and space to maximize welfare from consumption, taking into account a negative local pollution externality and the diffusive nature of pollution. Our framework allows for space and time dependent preferences and productivity, and does not restrict diffusion speed to be spaceindependent. This provides a comprehensive setting to analyze pollution diffusion with a close account of geographic heterogeneity. The involved optimization problem is infinite-dimensional. We propose an alternative method for an analytical characterization of the optimal paths and the asymptotic spatial distributions. The method builds on a deep economic concept of pollution spatiotemporal welfare effect, which makes it denitely useful for economic analysis |
Keywords: | Optimal growth, spatiotemporal modelling, transboundary pollution,infinite dimensional optimal control |
JEL: | Q53 R11 C61 R12 O41 |
Date: | 2019–10 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:813&r=all |
By: | Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou |
Abstract: | Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between alternative oil market models, let alone the basis for the sometimes divergent conclusions reached in the literature. The purpose of this survey is to provide a guide to this literature. Our focus is on the econometric foundations of the analysis of oil market models with special attention to the identifying assumptions and methods of inference. We not only explain how the workhorse models in this literature have evolved, but also examine alternative oil market VAR models. We help the reader understand why the latter models sometimes generated unconventional, puzzling or erroneous conclusions. Finally, we discuss the construction of extraneous measures of oil demand and oil supply shocks that have been used as external or internal instruments for VAR models. |
Keywords: | identification, model specification, elasticity, Bayesian estimation, structural VAR, instruments, textual analysis |
JEL: | Q43 Q41 C36 C52 |
Date: | 2020 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8153&r=all |
By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa) |
Abstract: | This study assesses whether improving governance standards affects environmental quality in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 2000-2012. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments. Bundled and unbundled governance dynamics are used notably: (i) political governance (consisting of political stability and “voice & accountability†); (ii) economic governance (entailing government effectiveness and regulation quality), (iii) institutional governance (represented by the rule of law and corruption-control) and (iv) general governance (encompassing political, economic and institutional governance dynamics). The following hypotheses are tested: (i) Hypothesis 1 (Improving political governance is negatively related to CO2 emissions); (ii) Hypothesis 2 (Increasing economic governance is negatively related to CO2 emissions) and (iii) Hypothesis 3 (Enhancing institutional governance is negatively related to CO2 emissions. Results of the tested hypotheses show that: the validity of Hypothesis 3 cannot be determined based on the results; Hypothesis 2 is not valid while Hypothesis 1 is partially not valid. The main policy implication is that governance standards need to be further improved in order for government quality to generate the expected unfavorable effects on CO2 emissions. |
Keywords: | CO2 emissions; Governance; Economic development; Sustainable development; Africa |
JEL: | C52 O38 O40 O55 P37 |
Date: | 2019–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:abh:wpaper:19/090&r=all |
By: | Axel Gautier (UNIVERSITE CATHOLIQUE DE LOUVAIN, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE)); Julien Jacqmin (ULiège - LCII) |
Abstract: | La transition énergétique modifie la manière de produire, consommer, stocker et échanger l’énergie. Dans cette transition, les prix doivent orienter les choix et donner des signaux corrects aux consommateurs. Dans ce numéro de Regards économiques, nous analysons le comportement des prosumers, les ménages qui sont à la fois producteurs et consommateurs d’énergie. Nous montrons que les tarifs en place ne donnent pas de bons signaux et qu’il faut les faire évoluer. |
Keywords: | Consommation, prix et pouvoir d’achat, Environnement et développement durable |
Date: | 2019–03–14 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ctl:louvrg:145&r=all |
By: | Richard S.J. Tol (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Falmer, United Kingdom) |
Abstract: | A kernel density is an aggregate of kernel functions, which are itself densities and could be kernel densities. This is used to decompose a kernel into its constituent parts. Pearson's test for equality of proportions is applied to quantiles to test whether the component distributions differ from one another. The proposed methods are illustrated with a meta-analysis of the social cost of carbon. Different discount rates lead to significantly different Pigou taxes, but not different growth rates. Estimates have not varied over time. Different authors have contributed different estimates, but these differences are insignificant. Kernel decomposition can be applied in many other fields with discrete explanatory variables. |
Keywords: | social cost of carbon, kernel density, decomposition, discrete explanatory variables |
JEL: | C14 Q54 |
Date: | 2020–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:0720&r=all |
By: | Oliver Morrissey; Lars Spreng |
Abstract: | This paper provides analysis of the macroeconomic management implications of becoming an exporter of oil, taking the case of Ghana and applying to Uganda as a prospective exporter. The paper proceeds in two steps. First, we construct a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model of a primary commodity exporting developing country calibrated to Ghana and Uganda and simulate the impulse response to shocks to the oil price and oil production. Second, using parameters from the DSGE model to obtain priors for parameter values, we use a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) with monthly data over 2001 to 2019 to estimate the response to oil shocks as an importer for both countries and as an exporter for Ghana after 2010. The DSGE results suggest that although an oil price shock generates appreciation and initially output falls, there are reductions in interest rates and inflation and ultimately output increases. The larger the oil sector the greater the appreciation and inflationary effects, but output rises more quickly and there are larger increases in wages and taxes. The SVAR results for Ghana when exporting suggest an initial depreciation in response to an oil price shock, with a reduction in inflation, but the immediate negative output response slowly turns positive (and becomes consistent with the DSGE). When Ghana and Uganda are importers, oil price shocks generate appreciation, mild inflation and interest rate reductions, so although output declines initially it rises after a year and this persists. The analysis suggests that the adoption of inflation targeting, in conjunction with an improved monitoring of macroeconomic developments, has mitigated the effects of oil price shocks on domestic variables in Ghana and Uganda. |
Keywords: | Oil, Exchange Rates, DSGE, SVAR, sub-Saharan Africa (Ghana, Uganda) |
Date: | 2020 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcre:20/03&r=all |
By: | Simon Dikau (Gratham Research Institute, London School of Economics and Political Science & Department of Economics, SOAS University of London); Ulrich Volz (Department of Economics & SOAS Centre for Sustainable Finance, SOAS University of London) |
Abstract: | This paper examines the extent to which addressing climate-related risks and supporting sustainable finance fit into the current set of central bank mandates and objectives. To this end, we conduct a detailed analysis of central bank mandates and objectives, using the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database, and compare these to current arrangements and sustainability-related policies central banks have adopted in practice. To scrutinise the alignment of mandates with climate-related policies, we differentiate between the impact of environmental factors on the conventional core objectives of central banking and a potential supportive role of central banks with regard to green finance and sustainability. Of the 135 central banks in our sample, only 12% have explicit sustainability mandates, while another 40% are mandated to support the government’s policy priorities, which in most cases include sustainability goals. However, given that climate risks can directly affectcentral banks’traditional core responsibilities, most notably monetary and financial stability, even central banks without explicit or implicit sustainability objectives ought to incorporate climate-related physical and transition risks into their core policy implementation frameworks in order to efficiently and successfully safeguard macro-financial stability. |
Keywords: | Central banks, central bank mandates, green finance |
JEL: | Q5 E5 |
Date: | 2020–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:soa:wpaper:232&r=all |
By: | Antônio Marcos de Queiroz (FACE-UFG); Eugênio Rodrigues de Paula (FACE-UFG); Edson Roberto Vieira (FACE-UFG); Cleidinaldo de Jesus Barbosa (FACE-UFG); Flávia Rezende Campos (FACE-UFG); Sérgio Fornazier Meyrelles Filho (FACE-UFG); Sabrina Faria de Queiroz (IE/UFU) |
Abstract: | This article aims to analyze the comparative advantage of Brazilian's ethanol exports in relation with North American's ethanol exportation, from 2000 to 2014. Ethanol is an important product on the list of Brazilian's exports, since it is considered very competitive, and is an alternative source of renewable energy that has a large world market. In order to achieve the goal of this study it was used the contents of Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) and Symmetric Comparative Advantage (SCA). The results showed that Brazil has advantages in exports of ethanol when compared with exports of the North American's ethanol throughout the period mentioned of the research. However, the exception is the reduction of these indexes from 2009 caused by the decrease of the investments in the sugar and alcohol sector due to the global economic crisis that happened in 2008. It was observed that, concerning the United States, the largest producer and consumer of world's ethanol, they cannot raise corn production, which is the raw material for ethanol production in the US without reducing other cultures, unless one wins in productivity. However, Brazil still has large areas that can be used for cultivation. |
Keywords: | Ethanol Market, Comparative Advantages, USA, Brazil |
JEL: | F2 F5 Q13 Q16 |
Date: | 2019–12 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ufb:wpaper:081&r=all |
By: | Lippert, Ingmar (Museum für Naturkunde Berlin) |
Abstract: | The PhD thesis and its related publications address how a carbon footprint of a multinational company was enacted. Related publications draw out a range of implications of this analysis for, inter alia, the sociology of the environment, Science and Technology Studies (STS), social studies of Big Data, the sociology of numbers and quantification. |
Date: | 2020–04–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:thesis:4mavc&r=all |
By: | Rodier, Caroline; Jaller, Miguel; Pourrahmani, Elham; Pahwa, Anmol; Bischoff, Joschka; Freedman, Joel |
Abstract: | Researchers at UC Davis explored what an automated vehicle future in the San Francisco Bay Area might look like by simulating: 1) A 100% personal automated vehicle future and its effects on travel and greenhouse emissions. 2) The introduction of an automated taxi service with plausible per-mile fares and its effects on conventional personal vehicle and transit travel. The researchers used the Metropolitan Transportation Commission’s activity-based travel demand model (MTC-ABM) and MATSim, an agent-based transportation model, to carry out the simulations. This policy brief summarizes the results, which provide insight into the relative benefits of each service and automated vehicle technology and the potential market for these services. View the NCST Project Webpage |
Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Intelligent vehicles, Multi-agent systems, Multimodal transportation, Public transit, Ridesharing, Simulation, Traffic simulation, Travel behavior, Travel demand, Value of time |
Date: | 2020–03–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4sf2n6rs&r=all |