nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2020‒03‒23
forty-two papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Learning from Developing Country Power Market Experiences : The Case of the Philippines By Rudnick,Hugh; Velasquez,Constantin
  2. Green growth strategy: The economywide impact of promoting renewable power generation in the Philippines By Pradesha, Angga; Robinson, Sherman; Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam; Valmonte-Santos, Rowena; Rosegrant, Mark W.
  3. Supercharged? Electricity Demand and the Electrification of Transportation in California By Burlig, Fiona PhD; Bushnell, James PhD; Rapson, David PhD; Wolfram, Catherine PhD
  4. The Electric Vehicle Transition and the Economics of Banning Gasoline Vehicles By Stephen P. Holland; Erin T. Mansur; Andrew J. Yates
  5. Towards Sustainable Energy Consumption Electricity Demand Flexibility and Household Fuel Choice By Daniel, Aemiro Melkamu
  6. Modeling Myths: On the Need for Dynamic Realism in DICE and other Equilibrium Models of Global Climate Mitigation By Michael Grubb; Claudia Wieners
  7. Exploring options to measure the climate consistency of real economy investments: The manufacturing industries of Norway By Alexander Dobrinevski; Raphaël Jachnik
  8. Interested, indifferent or active information avoider of climate labels: Cognitive dissonance and ascription of responsibility as motivating factors By Edenbrandt, Anna Kristina; Lagerkvist, Carl Johan; Nordström, Jonas
  9. Empirical Analysis of Global Oil Price Determinants at the Disaggregated Level Over the Last Two Decades By Yoshino, Naoyuki; Alekhina, Victoriia
  10. A Climate Insidium with a Price on Warming By John F. Raffensperger
  11. On the long-term efficiency of market splitting in Germany By Fraunholz, Christoph; Hladik, Dirk; Keles, Dogan; Möst, Dominik; Fichtner, Wolf
  12. Fuel riots - definition, evidence and policy implications for a new type of energy-related conflict By Natalini, Davide; Bravo, Giangiacomo; Newman, Edward
  13. Jumps in Energy and Non-Energy Commodities By Elie Bouri; Rangan Gupta
  14. Demand-side management and renewable energy business models for energy transition A systematic review By Michael Hamwi; Iban Lizarralde
  15. Policies, regulatory framework and enforcement for air quality management: The case of Japan By Enrico Botta; Sho Yamasaki
  16. Are Banks Being Roiled by Oil? By Ulysses Velasquez; Lauren Thomas; James Vickery
  17. Meeting the Sustainable Development Goal for Electricity Access -- Using a Multi-Scenario Approach to Understand the Cost Drivers of Power Infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa By Nicolas,Claire Marion; Samson,Benjamin; Rozenberg,Julie
  18. The economics of electric roads By Börjesson, Maria; Johansson, Magnus; Kågeson, Per
  19. On Outsourced Abatement Services: Market Power and Efficient Regulation By Damien Sans; Sonia Schwartz; Hubert Stahn
  20. Reducing Environmental Risks from Belt and Road Initiative Investments in Transportation Infrastructure By Losos,Elizabeth Claire; Pfaff,Alexander; Olander,Lydia Pauline; Mason,Sara; Morgan,Seth
  21. Industrial Demand Response: How Network Tariffs and Regulation Do (Not) Impact Flexibility Provision in Electricity Markets and Reserves By Jörn C. Richstein; Seyed Saeed Hosseinioun
  22. Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil By Nooman Rebei; Rashid Sbia
  23. Climate policies under dynamic international economic cycles: A heterogeneous countries DSGE model By Xiao, Bowen; Guo, Xiaodan; Fan, Ying; Voigt, Sebastian; Cui, Lianbiao
  24. Learning from Developing Country Power Market Experiences : The Case of Peru By Rudnick,Hugh; Velasquez,Constantin
  25. Do Banks Price Environmental Risk? Evidence from a Quasi Natural Experiment in the People’s Republic of China By Huang, Bihong; Punzi, Maria Teresa; Wu, Yu
  26. CORRI-DOOR PROJECT: DID IT REALLY BOOST THE FRENCH ELECTRIC VEHICLE MARKET? By Bassem Haidar; Pascal da Costa; Jan Lepoutre; Yannick Perez
  27. Policies, regulatory framework and enforcement for air quality management: The case of China By Chan Yang
  28. Learning from Developing Country Power Market Experiences : The Case of Colombia By Rudnick,Hugh; Velasquez,Constantin
  29. Consequentiality, elicitation formats, and the willingness-to-pay for green electricity: Evidence from Germany By Andor, Mark Andreas; Frondel, Manuel; Horvath, Marco
  30. A Mean-Field Game Approach to Equilibrium Pricing, Optimal Generation, and Trading in Solar Renewable Energy Certificate (SREC) Markets By Arvind Shrivats; Dena Firoozi; Sebastian Jaimungal
  31. Modelling Required Energy Consumption with Equivalence Scales By Yuxiang Ye; Steven F. Koch; Jiangfeng Zhang
  32. Policies, regulatory framework and enforcement for air quality management: The case of Korea By Daniel Trnka
  33. A new hybrid approach for crude oil price forecasting: Evidence from multi-scale data By Yang Yifan; Guo Ju'e; Sun Shaolong; Li Yixin
  34. Yellow Vests, Carbon Tax Aversion, and Biased Beliefs By Thomas Douenne; Adrien Fabre
  35. Federal Road Charge Tax Administration Process By Jenn, Alan; Fleming, Kelly
  36. Russian Federation–East Asia Liquefied Natural Gas Trade Patterns and Regional Energy Security By Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan; Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad; Yoshino, Naoyuki; Sarker, Tapan
  37. Scenarios : Leapfrog, Lock-in, and Lopsided By Leifman,Michael Meir
  38. Are They Really Being Served? : Assessing Effective Infrastructure Access and Quality in 15 Kenyan Cities By Gulyani,Sumila; Ryan Rizvi,Andrea C.; Talukdar,Debabrata
  39. Pollution and City Competitiveness : A Descriptive Analysis By Lozano Gracia,Nancy; Soppelsa,Maria Edisa
  40. Interdependence as a lever for national hybridization: The EU-Russia gas trade By Mehdi Abbas; Catherine Locatelli
  41. Riesgos de la distribución minorista de combustibles líquidos de uso automotor en Colombia By Astrid Martínez Ortiz; Miguel Marulanda
  42. Energy and Economic Growth: Why We Need a New Pathway to Prosperity: why we need a new pathway to prosperity by Timothy. J. Foxon. Earthscan for Routledge, Abingdon (2018) By Fouquet, Roger

  1. By: Rudnick,Hugh; Velasquez,Constantin
    Abstract: Deep reforms of the Philippine power sector began in 2001, aiming at competitive wholesale and retail markets. This case study analyzes the Philippine experience with wholesale electricity markets at the generation level, including design, implementation, and outcomes. The spot market began operation in 2006, amidst adequate generation capacity albeit highly concentrated among few players. The reforms have successfully introduced market-driven forces to system operation and spot price signals for investments. Investment in new generation has recently been commissioned; generation concentration has plunged since the market?s inception (mainly due to privatization of generation assets); and generation supply has been generally secure (barring natural disasters). However, serious conflicts due to market power abuse occurred in the past; the market remains concentrated in four major players; and new competitors have slowly entered through the opaque and largely regulated market of bilateral contracts. Moreover, following aggressive capacity additions, baseload coal generation soared over the past decade, reaching 50 percent of total output in 2017, thus raising concerns about environmental sustainability, the optimal capacity mix (due to lack of investments in flexible mid-merit and peaking power plants), and long-term supply security of the Philippine power sector (since coal is imported). The case of the Philippines'power market highlights the importance of adequate ownership structure supportive of competition, the need of effective monitoring and oversight, especially during initial phases of the market, and the benefits and challenges that open and competitive wholesale markets can provide over time, especially in interaction with vertical integration (whether through cross-ownership or through bilateral contracts).
    Keywords: Energy Policies&Economics,Energy Demand,Energy and Mining,Energy and Environment,Power&Energy Conversion,Oil Refining&Gas Industry,Energy Sector Regulation
    Date: 2019–01–29
  2. By: Pradesha, Angga; Robinson, Sherman; Mondal, Md. Hossain Alam; Valmonte-Santos, Rowena; Rosegrant, Mark W.
    Abstract: This study assesses the economywide impact of promoting renewable power generation by targeting a 50 percent share of renewables in energy production by 2040. Using a novel approach by linking a bottom-up energy model with a top-down economywide model, we found that increasing the share of renewables in the power sector could slightly slow down the industrialization process and reduce economic growth. Implementing this policy, however, would allow the country to reduce carbon emissions by 65 million tons in 2040 and improve energy security. The health co-benefit is estimated to reach up to 324 billion Philippine pesos (PHP), which levels the welfare loss. Receiving foreign financial inflow as a compensation for reducing carbon emissions could drive the economy into Dutch disease, shifting more economic activities into the nontradable sector. Increasing total investment demand in the future as a policy response could potentially mitigate this effect and improve economic welfare by 155 billion PHP.
    Keywords: PHILIPPINES, SOUTH EAST ASIA, ASIA, renewable energy, energy policies, electricity, energy generation, economic growth, energy demand, greenhouse gas emissions, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, energy models, Dutch disease, energy security, TIMES model,
    Date: 2019
  3. By: Burlig, Fiona PhD; Bushnell, James PhD; Rapson, David PhD; Wolfram, Catherine PhD
    Abstract: The rapid electrification of the transportation fleet in California raises important questions about the reliability, cost, and environmental implications for the electric grid. A crucial first element to understanding these implications is an accurate picture of the extent and timing of residential electricity use devoted to EVs. Although California is now home to over 650,000 electric vehicles (EVs), less than 5% of these vehicles are charged at home using a meter dedicated to EV use. This means that state policy has had to rely upon very incomplete data on residential charging use. This report summarizes the first phase of a project combining household electricity data and information on the adoption of electric vehicles over the span of four years. We propose a series of approaches for measuring the effects of EV adoption on electricity load in California. First, we measure load from the small subset of households that do have an EV-dedicated meter. Second, we estimate how consumption changes when households go from a standard residential electricity tariff to an EV-specific tariff. Finally, we suggest an approach for estimating the effect of EV ownership on electricity consumption in the average EV-owning household. We implement this approach using aggregated data, but future work should use household-level data to more effectively distinguish signal from noise in this analysis. Preliminary results show that households on EV-dedicated meters are using 0.35 kWh per hour from Pacific Gas and Electric (PGE); 0.38 kWh per hour from Southern California Edison; and 0.28 kWh per hour from San Diego Gas and Electric on EV charging. Households switching to EV rates without dedicated meters are using less electricity for EV charging: 0.30 kWh per hour in PGE. Our household approach applied to aggregated data is too noisy to be informative. These estimates should be viewed as evidence that more focused analysis with more detailed data would be of high value and likely necessary to produce rigorous analysis of the role EVs are playing in residential electricity consumption.
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, energy consumption, demand, household, residential areas, policy analysis, empirical methods, data analysis
    Date: 2020–03–01
  4. By: Stephen P. Holland; Erin T. Mansur; Andrew J. Yates
    Abstract: Electric vehicles have a unique potential to transform personal transportation. We analyze the transition to electric vehicles with a dynamic model that captures the falling costs of producing electric vehicles, the decreasing pollution from electricity generation, the increasing substitutability of electric for gasoline vehicles, and the durability of the vehicle stock. Due to the external costs from pollution, inefficiencies under business as usual result from the mix of vehicles as well as the transition timing, the severity of which depends on substitutability. We calibrate the model to the US market and find the magnitude of the inefficiency is rather modest: less than 5 percent of total external costs. The optimal purchase subsidy for electric vehicles and the optimal ban on the production of gasoline vehicles both give about the same efficiency improvement, but the latter leads to a sharp increase in gasoline vehicle production just before the ban. Phasing out gasoline vehicles with a bankable production quota reduces deadweight loss substantially more than the other policies, but may lead to a very large deadweight loss if set incorrectly.
    JEL: D62 H23 Q40 Q53 Q54
    Date: 2020–02
  5. By: Daniel, Aemiro Melkamu (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
    Abstract: Paper [I] investigates household heterogeneity in valuing electricity contract attributes that include various load controls and information sharing to induce demand flexibility. Using a stated preference choice experiment conducted with Swedish households, this paper shows that, although a large proportion of households asks for substantial compensation, some households are willing to share their electricity consumption information and require relatively lower compensation to allow load controls. In addition, this paper finds that some households that are willing to provide flexibility by accepting load controls at a relatively low compensation ask for sizeable compensation to share their electricity consumption information, and vice versa. From the perspective of the contract providers, these findings suggest that information-optional contracts can generate more customers than contracts that bundle households’ consumption information with various load controls. Paper [II] uses a flexible model to accommodate heterogeneous decision rules in analysing data obtained from a discrete choice experiment aimed at eliciting Swedish households’ willingness to accept compensation for restrictions on household electricity and heating use during peak hours. The model combines behavioural processes based on random utility maximization with an elimination-by-aspects strategy, where the latter involves a two-stage decision process. In the first stage, respondents are allowed to eliminate from their choice set alternatives that contain an unacceptable level, in this case restrictions on the use of heating and electricity. In the second stage, respondents choose between the remaining alternatives in a rational utility maximizing manner. Our results show that about half of the respondents choose according to an elimination-by-aspects strategy, and considering elimination-by-aspects behaviour leads to a downward shift in elicited willingness-to-accept. Paper [III] tests the effect of a pro-environmental framing on households’ stated willingness to accept restrictions on their electricity use. We use a split-sample choice experiment and ask respondents to choose between their current electricity contract and hypothetical contracts featuring various load controls and monetary compensation. Our results indicate that the pro-environmental framing has little impact on the respondents’ choices. We observe a significant framing effect on choices and marginal willingness-to-accept for only a few contract attributes. The results further suggest that there is no significant framing effect among households that are already engaged in pro-environmental activities. Paper [IV] explores the socio-demographic and housing characteristics that affect household fuel choice and fuel use decisions in urban Ethiopia. The results indicate that, whereas households with a female head are more likely to combine traditional solid (firewood and charcoal) and modern (electricity) fuels for different uses, households with less-educated heads, many family members, and poor living conditions (fewer rooms) tend to use traditional solid biomass fuels. We find that households with an individual electricity meter are significantly less likely to use charcoal. Further, the results show the satiation effect from the increasing use of a fuel by households is relatively higher for firewood and lower for electricity.
    Keywords: Choice experiment; demand flexibility; electricity contract; fuel choice; fuel stacking; household heterogeneity; load control; pro-environmental framing; willingness-to-accept
    JEL: C25 C99 D01 D12 Q42 Q48 Q51
    Date: 2020–03–10
  6. By: Michael Grubb (University College London); Claudia Wieners (Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant`Anna, Pisa, Italy.)
    Abstract: We analyze and critique how optimizing Integrated Assessment Models, and specifically the widely-used DICE model, represent abatement costs. Many such models assume temporal independence Ðabatement costs in one period are not affected by prior abatement. We contrast this with three dimensions of dynamic realism in emitting systems: inertia, induced innovation, and path dependence. We extend the DICE model with a stylized representation of such dynamic factors. By adding a transitional cost component, we characterize the resulting system in terms of its capacity to adapt in path-dependent ways, and the transitional costs of accelerating abatement. We formalize a resulting metric of the pliability of the system, and the characteristic timescales of adjustment. With the resulting DICE-PACE model, we show that in a system with high pliability, the optimal strategy involves much higher initial investment in abatement, sustained at roughly constant levels for some decades, which generates an approximately linear abatement path and emissions declining steadily to zero. This contrasts sharply with the traditional formulation. Characteristic transition timescales of 20-40 years result in an optimum path which stabilizes global temperatures around a degree below the traditional DICE behavior; with otherwise modest assumptions, a pliable system can generate optimal scenarios within the goals of the Paris Agreement, with far lower long run combined costs of abatement and climate damages. We conclude that representing dynamic realism in such models is as important as Ð and far more empirically tractable than Ð continued debate about the monetization of climate damages and `social cost of carbon`.
    Keywords: climate change, Integrated Assessment Models, DICE, path dependence, Pliable Abatement Cost Mechanisms.
    JEL: Q5 H23 Q54 Q55
    Date: 2020–01
  7. By: Alexander Dobrinevski (OECD); Raphaël Jachnik (OECD)
    Abstract: This paper presents results from a first pilot study to measure the consistency of real economy investments with climate change mitigation objectives. The analysis focuses on investments in infrastructure and equipment in the manufacturing industries in Norway between 2010 and 2017, estimated at USD 2.5 billion per year on average. The consistency or inconsistency of these investments is then measured at subsector level based on two readily available reference points: the European Union Taxonomy for Sustainable Activities, and a 2°C scenario for the Nordic region from the International Energy Agency. The analysis further identifies sources of financing in these subsectors and discusses future investment and financing challenges, in light of more ambitious forward-looking decarbonisation targets and needs. Finally, the study draws methodological conclusions and calls for further pilot studies in order to improve and scale up such analysis at international level, including in terms of using different or complementary reference points specifically aligned to the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
    Keywords: capital expenditure, climate change, emissions, energy efficiency, finance, investment, low-greenhouse gas development, manufacturing, measurement, scenarios, taxonomy, tracking
    JEL: E01 E22 F31 G32 L60 H54 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2020–03–17
  8. By: Edenbrandt, Anna Kristina (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences); Lagerkvist, Carl Johan (Department of Economics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences); Nordström, Jonas (AgriFood economics centre)
    Abstract: Active avoidance of information is gaining attention in behavioral sciences, and recently also its’ relevance from an economic theory perspective. We explore motivations and policy implications of active avoidance of carbon emission information. In a stated preference survey respondents were asked to indicate if they wished to access carbon emission information (info-takers) or not (info-decliners) when selecting protein source in a first stage. In a second stage all respondents were provided carbon emission information. The info-takers reduced their CO2-emissions from their food choices with 32%, while the info-decliners also reduced their CO2 emissions (12%). This provides evidence of active information avoidance among at least some info-decliners. We explore cognitive dissonance and responsibility feelings and personal norms as motivations for actively avoiding carbon emission information on meat products, and how these motivations affect the reaction if imposed information. Our results show that carbon emission information increases choice task uncertainty most among individuals that experience climate related cognitive dissonance and/or responsibility feelings. These findings point to the potential of carbon emission information as a measure for changing food consumption towards less carbon emitting products. The study also highlights the importance of how the information is provided and presented.
    Keywords: Climate label; information avoidance; cognitive dissonance; carbon emission reduction; consumer behavior; strategic avoidance
    JEL: D12 D83 Q18 Q54
    Date: 2020–03–12
  9. By: Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute); Alekhina, Victoriia (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: While until the mid-1990s the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries played a key role in oil pricing, during recent decades, rapid economic growth in developing economies has boosted the demand for oil, making oil prices vulnerable to a wider range of factors. We examine the impacts of oil supply and demand factors on Brent crude oil prices by developing an oil aggregate demand–aggregate supply model and empirically estimating using a vector autoregressive approach and monthly time series data from 1999 to 2017. We disaggregate global oil demand into demand from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and India to measure the scale of their contributions to global oil price movements. We consider the industrial production (IP) index as a determinant of the oil demand side. We find that among these three, the OECD and the PRC’s IP had a positive impact on oil prices during the estimated period. Moreover, among the factors included in the model, an appreciation of the US dollar exchange rate had a significant negative impact on oil prices over the last 2 decades. We also examine the equilibrium of the oil market during the estimated period and show that oil prices were adjusting instantly, confirming the existence of the equilibrium.
    Keywords: oil prices; industrial production; macro-economy
    JEL: Q31 Q41 Q43
    Date: 2019–07–29
  10. By: John F. Raffensperger
    Abstract: In this paper, I introduce a new emissions trading system (ETS) design to address the problems with existing ETSs and carbon taxes. First, existing ETS designs inhibit emissions but do not constrain warming to any set level. Existing ETSs have the indirect objective of reducing emissions instead of directly reducing warming. Even a global mechanism using an existing ETS cannot guarantee a particular warming path. Part 1: A Price on Warming addresses this. My proposed market trades contracts tied to temperature in a double-sided auction of emissions permits and sequestration contracts. Unlike existing ETSs, the mechanism has a consistent timescale and metric tied to warming, with explicit limits on global temperature in every period into the far future. Every auction finds prices for emissions into the far future. Second, if a jurisdiction does not require firms to manage their emissions, the firms have little incentive to do so. Part 2: A Climate Insidium addresses this. My design incentivizes firms to participate even if their jurisdictions do not join. With sanctions from member jurisdictions and participating firms, the design has bottom-up incentives for joining, and the incentives rise over time under realistic conditions, potentially resulting in a rush to join. Third, existing designs have high transaction costs for implementation, requiring international treaties to begin. Part 3: A Faster Path Forward addresses this. I propose a path without national or international action to begin. A coalition can implement these rules, creating political force to accelerate participation. Full implementation still requires national agreements. This design appears to be closer to "first best", with a lower cost of climate mitigation, than any in the literature, while increasing the certainty of avoiding catastrophic global warming. It might also provide a faster pathway to implementation.
    Date: 2020–03
  11. By: Fraunholz, Christoph; Hladik, Dirk; Keles, Dogan; Möst, Dominik; Fichtner, Wolf
    Abstract: In Europe, the ongoing renewable expansion and delays in the planned grid extension have intensified the discussion about an adequate electricity market design. Against this background, we jointly apply an agent-based electricity market model and an optimal power flow model to investigate the long-term impacts of splitting the German market area into two price zone. Our approach allows capturing long-term investment and short-term market behavior under imperfect information. We find strong impacts of a German market splitting on electricity prices, expansion planning of generators and required congestion management. While the congestion volumes decrease significantly under a market split in the short term, the optimal zonal configuration for 2020 becomes outdated over time due to dynamic effects like grid extension, renewable expansion and new power plant investments. Policymakers and regulators should therefore regularly re-assess bidding zone configurations. Yet, this stands in contrast to the major objective of price zones to create stable locational investment incentives.
    Date: 2020
  12. By: Natalini, Davide; Bravo, Giangiacomo; Newman, Edward
    Abstract: This paper defines ‘fuel riots’ as a distinct type of energy-related conflict. The paper provides the first database for fuel riots and explores their social, economic and environmental drivers. Focussing upon refined fuel commodities, the analysis demonstrates a link between fuel riots and rising international fuel prices in countries characterised by weak state capacity and deficient governance, fuel scarcity and poor economic performance. We suggest a potential causal pathway for fuel riots: when international fuel prices spike, net fuel-importing countries bear higher costs and if these societies are politically fragile, the likelihood of fuel riots is high. Countries with high GDP per capita can absorb the increase and maintain subsidies, therefore avoiding upheavals, as opposed to poorer societies where fuel riots are more likely. Our findings demonstrate the role of state fragility and socio-economic conditions in enabling conflict, and will inform policy in identifying fertile ground for fuel riots, i.e. those societies most likely to be affected by increases in fossil fuel prices due to fuel scarcity and climate action (e.g. carbon taxes). We propose that policies aimed at controlling international prices are key to prevent fuel riots. Long-term strategies require phasing out fuel subsidies with inclusive and equitable processes.
    Date: 2020–03–02
  13. By: Elie Bouri (USEK Business School, Holy Spirit University of Kaslik, Jounieh, Lebanon); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)
    Abstract: Jumps in the price process of assets represent a sort of tail risk and are found to affect many aspects of asset pricing, volatility modelling, and asset allocation. In this paper, we detect price jumps in the realized volatility series of a wide set of commodity futures and find evidence of a jumpy behaviour, especially in energy and agricultural commodities. We examine whether the realized volatilities of commodity futures jump together and find evidence that co-jumping is significant and generally clustered within the commodity groups, suggesting some sort of segmentation regarding the tail risk behaviour across energy, agricultural, and metals commodities. Additional analysis shows that price jumps and macroeconomic news surprises tend to occur together in specific commodities such as crude oil, which confirms earlier findings about the sensitivity of crude oil to news about the economy.
    Keywords: Realized volatility, energy and non-energy commodities, jumps, co-jumps, macroeconomic news
    Date: 2020–02
  14. By: Michael Hamwi (Ecole Supérieure des Technologies Industrielles Avancées (ESTIA)); Iban Lizarralde (ESTIA Recherche - Ecole Supérieure des Technologies Industrielles Avancées (ESTIA))
    Abstract: Recent developments in technology have been considered a critical factor in fighting climate change and accelerating energy transition. These developments are changing the current centralized and fossil fuel-based energy system into a new system with integrated renewable energy resources. The developments also facilitate the emergence of new business models and allow entrepreneurs to propose new products and services. This paper aims to identify the existent energy business models based on a systematic literature review, focusing on two main areas: renewable energy and demand-side management. With that purpose, a framework is described including specific characteristics for energy business models. Based on this framework, 22 different energy business models are presented clustered in eight patterns. The study draws on an exhaustive picture of the emerging business models and provides insights for researchers and for early-stage companies to innovate through business model transformation.
    Keywords: Business model,energy services,energy entrepreneur,renewable energy,demand-side management,demand response
    Date: 2019–07–01
  15. By: Enrico Botta (OECD); Sho Yamasaki (OECD)
    Abstract: The pollution intensity of the Japanese economy, measured as emissions per dollar of GDP, is among the lowest within OECD countries. However, air pollution remains a significant issue. Almost 80% of the Japanese residents were exposed to an annual concentration of PM2.5 above the WHO guideline while the attainment rate of the domestic air quality standard for photochemical oxidants is below 1%. The analysis of the regulatory and enforcement framework for air quality management in Japan identifies best practises and key remaining challenges, including a limited understanding of the generation mechanism of ozone pollution and the need to strengthen cooperation among Prefectures. This paper complements two case studies on air quality policies in China and Korea, and a third case study on international regulatory cooperation on air quality in North America, Europe and North-East Asia.
    Keywords: air pollution, Japan, monitoring and enforcement, regulatory policy
    Date: 2020–03–13
  16. By: Ulysses Velasquez; Lauren Thomas; James Vickery
    Abstract: Profits and employment in the oil and natural gas extraction industry have fallen significantly since 2014, reflecting a sustained decline in energy prices. In this post, we look at how these tremors are affecting banks that operate in energy industry?intensive regions of the United States. We find that banks in the ?oil patch? have experienced a significant rise in delinquencies on commercial and industrial loans. So far though, there appears to be limited evidence of spillovers to other types of loans and no evidence of widespread bank losses or failures in these regions.
    Keywords: financial stability; banks; oil
    JEL: G2
  17. By: Nicolas,Claire Marion; Samson,Benjamin; Rozenberg,Julie
    Abstract: This paper explores the investments needed to achieve universal access to electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030, and the additional operation and maintenance costs these investments entail. It also explores the drivers of these costs, by exploring hundreds of scenarios that combine alternative assumptions on the level of service targeted, population growth, urbanization, industrial demand, and technology cost. The main driver of electrification costs is found to be the tier of service offered to newly connected households. The annual investment required to reach universal access varies between US$14.5 billion per year on average for the basic access scenarios (0.7 percent of the region's gross domestic product per year over the period) and US$22.7 billion on average for the high-quality scenarios (1 percent of gross domestic product). In the basic access scenario, costs depend mostly on industrial demand, which takes a large share of total demand. In the high-quality scenarios, costs depend on urbanization rates, as it is cheaper to connect urban households to the grid. Investment costs are not sufficient to provide reliable service, and when operations and maintenance are accounted for, total costs increase to US$39.7 billion on average for the basic scenarios and US$61.5 billion on average for the high-quality scenarios.
    Keywords: Energy Policies&Economics,Electric Power,Energy and Mining,Energy and Environment,Energy Demand,Energy Sector Regulation
    Date: 2019–02–19
  18. By: Börjesson, Maria (Research Programme in Transport Economics); Johansson, Magnus (Research Programme in Transport Economics); Kågeson, Per (Research Programme in Transport Economics)
    Abstract: In this paper we present a method for evaluating social benefits of electric roads and apply it to the Swedish highway network. Together with estimated investments costs this can be used to produce a cost benefit analysis. An electric road is characterized by high economies of scale (high investment cost and low marginal cost) and considerable economies of scope (the benefit per kilometre electric road depends on the size of the network), implying that the market will produce a smaller network of electric roads, or charge higher prices for its use, than what is welfare optimal. For this reason, it is relevant for governments to consider investing in electric roads, making the cost-benefit analysis a key decision support. We model the behaviour of the carriers using the Swedish national freight model system, SAMGODS, determining the optimal shipment sizes and optimal transport chains, including mode and vehicle type. We find that if the user charge is set as to optimize social welfare, the revenue will not fully cover the investment cost of the electric road. If they are instead set to optimize profit for the operator of the electric road operator, we find that the revenue will cover the costs if the electric road network is large enough. Electric roads appear to provide a cost-effective means to significantly reduce carbon emissions from heavy trucks. In a scenario where the expansion connects the three biggest cities in Sweden, emissions will be cut by one-third of the overall emissions from heavy trucks in Sweden. The main argument against a commitment to electric roads is that investment and maintenance costs are uncertain and that, in the long run, battery development or hydrogen fuel cells can reduce the benefit of such roads.
    Keywords: Pricing and economic analysis; Cost-benefit analysis; Electric road; Carbon emissions; Freight transport; E-motorways
    JEL: R12 R41 R42
    Date: 2020–03–10
  19. By: Damien Sans (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Sonia Schwartz (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - Clermont Auvergne - UCA - Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Hubert Stahn (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - École Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In this paper, we consider competitive polluting firms that outsource their abatement activity to an upstream imperfect competitive eco-industry to comply with environmental regulation. In this case, we show that an usual environmental policy based on a Pigouvian tax or a pollution permit market reaches the first-best outcome. The main intuition is based on the idea that purchasing pollution reduction services instead of pollution abatement inputs modifies for each potential tax rate (or out of the equilibrium permit price) the nature of the arbitrage between pollution and abatement. This induces a demand for abatement services which is, at least partially, strongly elastic and therefore strongly reduces upstream market power. This argument is first illustrated with an upstream monopoly selling eco-services to a representative polluting firm under a usual Pigouvian tax. We then progressively extend the result to permit markets, heterogeneous downstream polluters and heterogeneous upstream Cournot competitors. JEL Codes: Q58, D43
    Keywords: Environmental regulation,Eco-industry,Imperfect Competition,Abatement Outsourcing
    Date: 2019–12
  20. By: Losos,Elizabeth Claire; Pfaff,Alexander; Olander,Lydia Pauline; Mason,Sara; Morgan,Seth
    Abstract: The Belt and Road Initiative, due to its diverse and extensive infrastructure investments, poses a wide range of environmental risks. Some projects have easily identifiable and measurable impacts, such as energy projects'greenhouse gas emissions. Others, such as transportation infrastructure, due to their vast geographic reach, generate more complex and potentially more extensive environmental risks. The proposed Belt and Road Initiative rail and road investments have stimulated concerns because of the history of significant negative environmental impacts from large-scale transportation projects across the globe. This paper studies environmental risks -- direct and indirect -- from Belt and Road Initiative transportation projects and the mitigation strategies and policies to address them. The paper concludes with a recommendation on how to take advantage of the scale of the Belt and Road Initiative to address these concerns in a way not typically available to stand-alone projects. In short, this scale motivates and permits early integrated development and conservation planning.
    Date: 2019–01–25
  21. By: Jörn C. Richstein; Seyed Saeed Hosseinioun
    Abstract: Incentives for industrial loads to provide demand response on day-ahead and reserve markets are affected both by network tariffs, as well as regulations on the provision of flexibility in different markets. This paper uses a numerical model of the chlor-alkali process with a storable intermediate good to investigate how these factors affect the provision of demand response in these markets. We also model the effect of network tariffs and regulation on endogenous investment into process excess capacities, which are needed to provide load shifting. We find that fixed network tariffs based on peak-demand (demand charges) can be detrimental to the provision of demand response, especially to new investments in process capacity. For existing excess capacities, only high network tariffs inhibit demand response by limiting the optimal peak load below its physical limit. Marketing flexibility on the day-ahead market and in the reserves are substitutes for each other. The choice where to market flexibility is affected both by fixed peak-demand network tariffs and existing excess capacities. For endogenous investments, there are synergies between primary reserve participation and day-ahead flexibility provision, with the combination leading to increased capacity investments. In contrast, so-called interruptible load reserves, regular payments to industrial loads to be able to reduce electricity consumption at any point in time, incentivize a flat demand level. Consequently, such reserve markets reduce investments into additional flexibility capacities and often crowd out active participation in other markets.
    Keywords: demand response, optimization, day-ahead market, reserves, network tariffs, chemical production
    JEL: C61 L65 Q40 Q48
    Date: 2020
  22. By: Nooman Rebei; Rashid Sbia
    Abstract: This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus permanent shocks, pointing to the importance of disentangling their distinct effects. Permanent supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements during the most recent decades, while speculative shocks became less influential.
    Date: 2020–02–28
  23. By: Xiao, Bowen; Guo, Xiaodan; Fan, Ying; Voigt, Sebastian; Cui, Lianbiao
    Abstract: In light of increased economic integration and global warming, addressing critical issues such as the role of multilateral climate policies and the strategic interaction of countries in climate negotiations becomes paramount. We thus established for this paper an open economy environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with heterogeneous production sectors, bilateral climate policies, asymmetric economies, and asymmetric stochastic shocks, using China and the EU as case studies in order to analyze the interaction and linking of international carbon markets under dynamic international economic cycles. This led us to some major conclusions. First, with various methods we verified that, due to deadweight loss, the efficiency of the separate carbon market is lower than that of the joint carbon market. Second, the intensity of the spillover effects depends partly on different climate policies. This means that, in terms of supply-side shocks, the EU's economy in a joint carbon market is more sensitive because its cross-border spillover effects are enhanced, while demand-side shocks have a stronger impact on the EU's economy under a separate carbon market. Third, the Ramsey policy rule revealed that both China's and the EU's emission quotas should be adjusted pro-cyclically under separate carbon markets. The cross-border spillover effects of the joint carbon market, however can change the pro-cyclical characteristics of foreign (EU's) optimal quotas.
    Keywords: International economic cycle,Carbon market,China,the European Union (EU),Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE)
    JEL: E32 F41 Q53 Q56 Q58
    Date: 2020
  24. By: Rudnick,Hugh; Velasquez,Constantin
    Abstract: The Peruvian power market was established in 1992, amid serious supply constraints and financially distressed power utilities. Since its inception, the market has been adapted by competitive market reforms and adaptations due to government-driven public policy objectives. This paper analyzes the experience of Peru with power markets, including market design, implementation, and outcomes. A cost-based power pool with locational marginal prices was established overnight, with bilateral contracts among market participants and regulated capacity payments. After an initial period of rapid investment, sluggish capacity additions and a prolonged drought in 2003-04 motivated the successful introduction of competitive supply auctions in 2006, to ensure that needed capacity additions were made to meet demand growth. Competitive auctions for renewable capacity have also been successful, attracting investment at falling prices. However, the market has been adapted by the government, pushing technology-specific auctions to develop a balanced mix of gas and hydro power generation, with additional costs passed through to final customers. As a result, supply is less prone to hydrological conditions, but it is now subject to gas transport constraints; prices are depressed at US$9/megawatt hour; and the reserve margin increased to 81 percent in 2017. Overall, continuous adaptations to the Peruvian power market have delivered competitive outcomes, with concentration falling steadily and security of supply increasing over the past decade. However, the mixed approach of competitive forces and government-driven adaptations for public policy objectives calls into question the long-term efficiency of the market.
    Keywords: Energy Policies&Economics,Energy Demand,Energy and Mining,Energy and Environment,Power&Energy Conversion,Transport Services,Inflation
    Date: 2019–03–11
  25. By: Huang, Bihong (Asian Development Bank Institute); Punzi, Maria Teresa (Asian Development Bank Institute); Wu, Yu (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: This paper maps the risk arising from the transition to a low-emission economy and studies its transmission channels within the financial system. The environmental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (E-DSGE) model shows that tightening environmental regulations deteriorates firms' balance sheets as it internalizes the pollution costs, which consequentially accelerates the risks that the financial system faces. This empirical study, which employs the Clean Air Action that the Chinese government launched in 2013 as a quasi-experiment, supports the theoretical implications. The analysis of a unique dataset containing 1.3 million loans shows that the default rates of high-polluting firms rose by around 50% along their environmental policy exposure. At the same time, the loan spread charged to such firms increased by 5.5% thereafter.
    Keywords: environmental DSGE Model; Clean Air Action; lending spread; default rate
    JEL: E32 E50 H23 Q43
    Date: 2019–07–05
  26. By: Bassem Haidar (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606 - CentraleSupélec); Pascal da Costa (LGI - Laboratoire Génie Industriel - EA 2606 - CentraleSupélec); Jan Lepoutre; Yannick Perez (UP11 - Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11)
    Abstract: The decarbonization of the transportation sector needs a major rise in the electric vehicle (EV) market share in order to totally switch into electromobility. Boosting the electric vehicle market requires a cooperation between automotive industries by developing this technology especially batteries, charging infrastructure by installing more charging points especially fast ones and EV owners by giving them subsidies and offers. We collected data from different sources to analyze PEV sales in French departments and to know the reason that has the highest impact on the client's choice. Based on existing literature, we identified the most important factors and tried to build the French econometrics model using RStudio. Our model found that the vehicle price, autonomy, department's population density, local subsidies and fuel price to be significant and positively correlated to local PEV sales. However, charging infrastructure had negative impact and no significancy on the electromobility market. Results suggest boosting the study on a more detailed concept such as cities and suburbs as well as adding factors that reflect a department's and a client's characteristics in order to conclude with results that are more accurate.
    Keywords: Charging infrastructure,Electric vehicles,Econometrics study,Subsidies,Incentives
    Date: 2019–08–25
  27. By: Chan Yang (OECD)
    Abstract: Four decades of rapid economic expansion in China has generated enormous pressure on the environment, natural resources and public health. Alarming smog outbreaks during the 2010-13 period prompted the government to introduce a number of reforms to control air pollution, including a re-organisation of environmental institutions, improving the coordination and integrity of enforcement actions across levels of government, and the rolling out of a permit system for all stationary pollution sources. This paper reviews these recent developments, and discusses key remaining challenges. The paper complements two case studies on air quality policies in Korea and Japan, and a third case study on international regulatory cooperation on air quality in North America, Europe and North-East Asia.
    Keywords: air pollution, China, monitoring and enforcement, regulatory policy
    JEL: Q52 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2020–03–13
  28. By: Rudnick,Hugh; Velasquez,Constantin
    Abstract: The Colombian power market was established in 1995, driven primarily by concerns about the reliability of supply in the largely hydro-based domestic power system. The power sector reform was expected to help avoid blackouts by attracting private investment and increasing the efficiency of existing capacity. However, two decades after its inception, the market has not been successful in providing reliable supply along competitive outcomes. This paper analyzes the experience of Colombia with power markets, including market design, implementation, and outcomes. A single-node, bid-based market was established overnight, with bilateral contracts among market participants (mostly short-to-medium term). The original regulated capacity payment was replaced in 2004 by a reliability market intended to ensure supply during tight hydrological conditions (mainly due to El Nino phenomena). However, the Colombian power sector is currently showing signs of structural weakness: the reliability market has shown dysfunctionalities, the government has intervened the market during critical situations, and concerns persist regarding market power exercise. The experience of Colombia is important for other developing countries, since it highlights the challenges of designing and implementing a power market that successfully provides reliability, competitive outcomes, and sustainability. Although key local hydrological conditions were considered in the design of Colombia's capacity market, the market had difficulties delivering intended outcomes due to design and institutional issues, particularly the lack of a comprehensive approach to gas supply and transport.
    Keywords: Energy Demand,Energy and Mining,Energy and Environment,Energy Policies&Economics,Oil Refining&Gas Industry,Transport Services,Power&Energy Conversion
    Date: 2019–03–11
  29. By: Andor, Mark Andreas; Frondel, Manuel; Horvath, Marco
    Abstract: Based on hypothetical responses originating from a large-scale survey among about 6,000 German households, this study investigates the discrepancy in willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates for green electricity across single-binary-choice and open-ended valuation formats. Recognizing that respondents self-select into two groups distinguished by their belief in their answers' consequences for policy making, we employ a switching regression model that accounts for the potential endogeneity of respondents' belief in consequences and, hence, biases from sample selectivity. Contrasting with the received literature, we find WTP bids that tend to be higher among those respondents who obtained questions in the openended format, rather than single-binary-choice questions. This difference substantially shrinks, however, when focusing on individuals who perceive the survey as politically consequential.
    Keywords: Elicitation format,contingent valuation,consequentialism
    JEL: D03 D12 Q48 Q50 H41
    Date: 2020
  30. By: Arvind Shrivats; Dena Firoozi; Sebastian Jaimungal
    Abstract: SREC markets are a market-based system designed to incentivize solar energy generation. A regulatory body imposes a lower bound on the amount of energy each regulated firm must generate via solar means, providing them with a certificate for each MWh generated. Regulated firms seek to navigate the market to minimize the cost imposed on them, by modulating their SREC generation and trading activities. As such, the SREC market can be viewed through the lens of a large stochastic game with heterogeneous agents, where agents interact through the market price of the certificates. We study this stochastic game by solving the mean-field game (MFG) limit with sub-populations of heterogeneous agents. Our market participants optimize costs accounting for trading frictions, cost of generation, SREC penalty, and generation uncertainty. Using techniques from variational analysis, we characterize firms' optimal controls as the solution of a new class of McKean-Vlasov FBSDE and determine the equilibrium SREC price. We numerically solve the MV-FBSDEs and conclude by demonstrating how firms behave in equilibrium using simulated examples.
    Date: 2020–03
  31. By: Yuxiang Ye (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield, Pretoria 0028, South Africa); Steven F. Koch (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield, Pretoria 0028, South Africa); Jiangfeng Zhang (Department of Automotive Engineering, Clemson University, Greenville, US)
    Abstract: This study proposes an equivalence scale model for required energy consumption at the household level. The proposed approach equivalises actual energy expenditure across households in two steps: estimating an equivalence scale and dividing actual expenditure by the estimated scale for each household. We apply the method in a case study where data on required energy expenditure are not available. Our South African case study results suggest that the energy equivalence scale di ers from both income and energy equivalence factors used in developed countries, while the choice of equivalence estimation method has limited impact on energy requirements. As expected in a middle income and highly unequal country, estimates of required energy consumption are well above actual energy expenditure for low- and mid-income households. Given the similarity of results across methods, we are further able to suggest that required energy consumption, where data are not available, can be quickly estimated from expenditure data. Required energy consumption, Equivalence scale, Energy poverty, Semiparametric regression
    Keywords: Equivalence Scale, Semi-parametric, Energy Consumption
    JEL: I31 Q40 Q48
    Date: 2020–02
  32. By: Daniel Trnka (OECD)
    Abstract: During past years, Korea figured among the OECD countries with the highest share of population exposed to excessive PM2.5 (atmospheric particulate matter that have a diameter of less than 2.5 micrometres) concentrations and PM2.5 concentration level in Seoul is about two times higher than the WHO’s guidelines or the levels of other major cities in developed countries. A number of countermeasures have been recently introduced to address such challenges, including a tightening of air quality standards and increasing local inspection and enforcement capacity. This paper reviews these recent reforms, and discusses possible further improvements. This paper complements two case studies on air quality policies in China and Japan, and a third case study on international regulatory co-operation on air quality in North America, Europe and North-East Asia.
    Keywords: air pollution, Korea, monitoring and enforcement, regulatory policy
    Date: 2020–03–13
  33. By: Yang Yifan; Guo Ju'e; Sun Shaolong; Li Yixin
    Abstract: Faced with the growing research towards crude oil price fluctuations influential factors following the accelerated development of Internet technology, accessible data such as Google search volume index are increasingly quantified and incorporated into forecasting approaches. In this paper, we apply multi-scale data that including both GSVI data and traditional economic data related to crude oil price as independent variables and propose a new hybrid approach for monthly crude oil price forecasting. This hybrid approach, based on divide and conquer strategy, consists of K-means method, kernel principal component analysis and kernel extreme learning machine , where K-means method is adopted to divide input data into certain clusters, KPCA is applied to reduce dimension, and KELM is employed for final crude oil price forecasting. The empirical result can be analyzed from data and method levels. At the data level, GSVI data perform better than economic data in level forecasting accuracy but with opposite performance in directional forecasting accuracy because of Herd Behavior, while hybrid data combined their advantages and obtain best forecasting performance in both level and directional accuracy. At the method level, the approaches with K-means perform better than those without K-means, which demonstrates that divide and conquer strategy can effectively improve the forecasting performance.
    Date: 2020–02
  34. By: Thomas Douenne (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Adrien Fabre (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper helps to understand how beliefs form and determine attitudes towards policies. Using a new survey and official households' survey data, we investigate the case of carbon taxation in France in the context of the Yellow Vests movement that started against it. We find that French people would largely reject a Tax & Dividend policy, i.e. a carbon tax whose revenues are redistributed uniformly to each adult. However, they also overestimate the negative impact of the scheme on their purchasing power, wrongly think it is regressive, and do not perceive it as environmentally effective. Using information about the scheme as instruments to robustly identify causal effects, our econometric analysis shows that if we could rectify these three biased beliefs, it would suffice to generate majority approval. Yet, only a small minority can be convinced by new information and revisions are biased towards pessimism. Finally, if overly pessimistic beliefs cause tax rejection, they also result from it through motivated reasoning, which manifests what we define as "tax aversion".
    Keywords: Climate Policy,Carbon tax,Bias,Beliefs,Preferences,Tax aversion
    Date: 2020–02
  35. By: Jenn, Alan; Fleming, Kelly
    Abstract: The gasoline tax is one of the primary sources of revenue for transportation infrastructure funding. However, recent revenue shortfalls due to a combination of inflation, fuel efficiency improvements, and vehicle electrification have led to discussions of alternative funding mechanisms such as the road user charge where drivers would pay fees by miles driven rather than gallons consumed. In this report, researchers investigate the institutional structure of the current gasoline tax at the federal level including historical changes, how the tax is collected, and how it is allocated and disbursed to fund infrastructure projects. In outlining the structure of the current gasoline tax, they identify key opportunities for a road user charge to be integrated into the current funding system. These include considerations for tax evasion, simplification of state level allocated disbursement formulas, re-allocation of funds, and designating spending for fuel-specific infrastructure. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Law, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Gasoline tax, highway trust fund, transportation infrastructure funding
    Date: 2020–03–01
  36. By: Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan (Asian Development Bank Institute); Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad (Asian Development Bank Institute); Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute); Sarker, Tapan (Asian Development Bank Institute)
    Abstract: East Asia has remained the biggest market for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2018. The Russian Federation has a clear vision to develop its East Asia LNG projects to provide a bigger share of Asian LNG imports. We model Russian Federation–East Asia LNG trade patterns via the gravity trade theory, which is shown to fit well with energy trade patterns. Our findings reveal that a 1% increase in population growth in the People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea increases Russian Federation LNG exports by nearly 3.43%, and economic growth by 6.16%, while any increase in geographic distance decelerates LNG exports to the selected East Asian economies by nearly 7.3%. This means that the close proximity of the Russian Federation to East Asia is an advantage for its LNG exports. Furthermore, the West’s sanctions against the Russian Federation are a positive influencing factor on the latter’s LNG export volume to East Asia. We recommend some policies such as construction of a gas trading hub in Asia, increasing regional pricing power, and energy import diversification and shorter distances between the Russian Federation (exporter) and East Asia (importer) to improve energy security in this region.
    Keywords: gravity trade modeling; LNG trade; energy security; Russian Federation; East Asia
    JEL: F14 Q37 R11
    Date: 2019–06–10
  37. By: Leifman,Michael Meir
    Abstract: This paper presents the details of three scenarios -- leapfrog, lock-in, and lopsided -- that describe an illustrative set of technological states. Based largely on expert interviews, the paper argues that the technology outcomes are heavily attributable to the actions (or in some cases, inaction) of policy makers and incumbents. For each scenario, the paper presents descriptive levels of technology achievement and market outcomes for the energy, transport, and water sectors. One of the central differentiating features of the three scenarios is the extent to which governments perform their roles as enabling, that is, whether the policies are designed to help or hinder innovations that improve service levels, and distributive, that is, whether the policies are designed to ensure that multiple segments of society reap the rewards of innovation. A question raised as part of that theme is how countries can avoid lock-in, or how they might become derailed into a lopsided scenario. Some institutional behavioral markers of the scenarios were identified in these discussions and are noted in the paper. It is important to recognize that multiple combinations of these behaviors can lead to a lock-in or lopsided scenario. In addition to describing the scenarios in detail, the paper discusses the rationale for their creation, along with a brief discussion on the nature of uncertainty. The paper also describes the methodology employed in the creation of the scenarios, including expert interview methods and a day-long workshop.
    Keywords: Hydrology,Transport Services,Energy Demand,Energy and Mining,Energy and Environment,Labor Markets,Intelligent Transport Systems
    Date: 2019–02–19
  38. By: Gulyani,Sumila; Ryan Rizvi,Andrea C.; Talukdar,Debabrata
    Abstract: This paper proposes a framework that examines three levels of access to infrastructure -- nominal, effective, and quality-adjusted access. Most conventional indicators measure nominal access --whether a household has physical access to a service in or near the house. By contrast, effective access incorporates functionality and use of service, and quality-adjusted access raises the bar by incorporating quality metrics. The paper illustrates the analytical utility of this conceptual framework by deploying data from a survey of 14,200 households in 15 Kenyan cities in 2012-13. First, the analysis finds that these cities fall far short of delivering universal access to basic infrastructure. Second, for most services there a large gap -- 3 to 41 percentage points?between nominal and effective access. When the bar is raised to include quality of service, the drop-off in the proportion of those with access is even more dramatic. These findings suggest that conventional nominal measures overreport the level of service in urban communities, and that current approaches to infrastructure delivery might be enhancing availability of a service without ensuring that the service is usable -- that is, functional, reliable and affordable. Third, there is an infrastructure access gap between nonpoor and poor households, as well as formal and informal settlements. Fourth, hedonic regression analysis reveals that four services -- electricity, water, toilets, and garbage collection?are associated with higher rents. The analysis has broader implications for understanding and measuring service access. It raises important questions as global discussions turn to indicators for the Sustainable Development Goals.
    Keywords: Hydrology,Energy Policies&Economics,Inequality,Water and Human Health,Small Private Water Supply Providers,Sanitary Environmental Engineering,Water Supply and Sanitation Economics,Engineering,Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Environmental Engineering,Sanitation and Sewerage,Urban Transport,Transport in Urban Areas
    Date: 2019–02–19
  39. By: Lozano Gracia,Nancy; Soppelsa,Maria Edisa
    Abstract: As cities grow, the negative effects of congestion start to play their part, often affecting the cities'ability to become and remain competitive. Although many studies have focused on these negative effects, the links between pollution and city competitiveness are less explored. This paper focuses on this relationship, particularly the links between air pollution and city growth, and how it correlates with city competitiveness. Although high-income cities are usually better at managing pollution, the paper finds successful examples of fast-growing, lower-income cities that are able to tackle this issue. The evidence shows that cities can be competitive and still manage pollution, as long as they have a proactive attitude and focus on developing a green agenda to support this journey.
    Keywords: Air Quality&Clean Air,Pollution Management&Control,Brown Issues and Health,Regional Urban Development,Global Environment,Labor Markets,Health Care Services Industry
    Date: 2019–02–14
  40. By: Mehdi Abbas (Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Catherine Locatelli (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: Les interdépendances entre l'UE et ses fournisseurs extérieurs en matière de gaz naturel au premier rang desquels la Russie posent la question de la confrontation de préférences contradictoires des acteurs impliqués dans l'échange. Elles interrogent également l'impact transformatif de l'interdépendance lié à des processus d'hybridation entre acteurs asymétriques. L'article montre que la norme concurrentielle agit comme levier d'une hybridation des régulations à la fois du secteur gazier russe et de la politique énergétique de l'UE. Ainsi, le conflit de préférences UE-Russie naît de tentative européenne d'exportation de sa régulation concurrentielle au secteur gazier russe. Si celle-ci s'avère être un échec, l'importance du marché européen conduit toutefois à une adaptation du modèle russe de gouvernance gazière. Mais celle-ci implique en retour une transformation du modèle européen.
    Keywords: Russie,Union Européenne,Echanges gaz naturel
    Date: 2019–12–31
  41. By: Astrid Martínez Ortiz; Miguel Marulanda
    Abstract: Este estudio consta de dos capítulos. El primero caracteriza el sector minorista de la distribución de combustibles en Colombia y analiza los riesgos de mercado que enfrentan las estaciones de servicio que distribuyen combustibles líquidos de uso automotor y gas natural vehicular en el segmento minorista en el país. El segundo estudia los riesgos regulatorios que gravitan sobre el sector.
    Keywords: Estaciones de Servicio, Distribución de Combustibles, Distribución Minorista de Combustibles Líquidos, Mercado de Combustibles, Combustibles Líquidos, Colombia, Liquid Fuels
    JEL: L71
    Date: 2019–01–08
  42. By: Fouquet, Roger
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2019–03–07

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