nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2020‒02‒03
25 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Exploring the Role of Cities in Electrifying Passenger Transportation By Hardman, Scott; Garas, Dahlia; Allen, Jeff; Axsen, Jonn; Beard, George; Dütschke, Elisabeth; Daina, Nicolò; Figenbaum, Erik; Jochem, Patrick; Nicholas, Michael; Plötz, Patrick; Refa, Nazir; Sovacool, Benjamin; Sperling, Daniel; Sprei, Frances; Tal, Gil
  2. CO2 Emissions in Finland 2019–2023 and the Carbon Neutrality Objective By Kaitila, Ville
  3. Energy Efficiency in General Equilibrium with Input-Output Linkages By Christopher J. Blackburn; Juan Moreno-Cruz
  4. The Private and External Costs of Germany's Nuclear Phase-Out By Stephen Jarvis; Olivier Deschenes; Akshaya Jha
  5. How Does State-Level Carbon Pricing in the United States Affect Industrial Competitiveness? By Brendan J. Casey; Wayne B. Gray; Joshua Linn; Richard Morgenstern
  6. Modelling Asymmetric effects of Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Fresh evidence from Asymmetric ARDL and Granger Causality By OSHOTA, Sebil
  7. Development of Eco-Friendly Ramp Control for Connected and Automated Electric Vehicles By Wu, Guoyuan; Zhao, Zhouqiao; Wang, Ziran; Barth, Matthew J.
  8. Carbon Trading and the Morality of Markets in Laudato Si By Peñalver, Eduardo M.; Library, Cornell
  9. Developing an Adaptive Strategy for Connected Eco-Driving Under Uncertain Traffic and Signal Conditions By Hao, Peng; Wei, Zhensong; Bai, Zhengwei; Barth, Matthew J.
  10. The price elasticity of electricity demand when marginal incentives are very large By Lanot, Gauthier; Vesterberg, Mattias
  11. Oil price uncertainty as a predictor of stock market volatility By Vlastakis, Nikolaos; Triantafyllou, Athanasios; Kellard, Neil
  12. Energy based estimation of the Shadow Economy: The role of Governance Quality. By Dimitrios Psychoyios; Olympia Missiou; Theologos Dergiades
  13. Replacing SF6 in electrical gas-insulated switchgear: technological alternatives and potential life cycle greenhouse gas savings in an EU-28 perspective By BILLEN, Pieter; MAES, Ben; LARRAÍN, Macarena; BRAET, Johan
  14. Potential för utsläppsminskningar från elektrifiering av godstransporter på Europavägar By Jussila Hammes, Johanna
  15. Does Electrification Cause Industrial Development? Grid Expansion and Firm Turnover in Indonesia By Dana Kassem
  16. Solution Approaches for Vehicle and Crew Scheduling with Electric Buses By Perumal, S.S.G.; Dollevoet, T.A.B.; Huisman, D.; Lusby, R.M.; Larsen, J.; Riis, M.
  17. Market design of regional flexibility markets: A classification metric for flexibility products and its application to German prototypical flexibility markets By Erik Heilmann; Nikolai Klempp; Heike Wetzel
  18. Pricing Exchange Options under Stochastic Correlation By Enrique Villamor; Pablo Olivares
  20. La rente hydroélectrique en Afrique: Une évaluation avec taxation et optimisation des coûts totaux de production By Yris Fondja Wandji; Jules Kamdem
  21. It’s Not Price; It’s Quality. Satisfaction and Price Fairness Perception By Raul Jimenez Mori
  22. Success and failure of renewable energy policies in the EU: A comparative study of Bulgaria and Poland By Adachi, Misato
  23. "Complementarity between Mechanization and Human Capital: How Did Machines and Educated White-Collar Workers Enhance Labor Productivity in Prewar Japanese Coal Mines?" By Tetsuji Okazaki
  24. Forecasting industrial production in Germany: The predictive power of leading indicators By Schlösser, Alexander
  25. The Logic of Strategic Assets: From Oil to Artificial Intelligence By Jeffrey Ding; Allan Dafoe

  1. By: Hardman, Scott; Garas, Dahlia; Allen, Jeff; Axsen, Jonn; Beard, George; Dütschke, Elisabeth; Daina, Nicolò; Figenbaum, Erik; Jochem, Patrick; Nicholas, Michael; Plötz, Patrick; Refa, Nazir; Sovacool, Benjamin; Sperling, Daniel; Sprei, Frances; Tal, Gil
    Abstract: Key Takeaways 1. The electrification of passenger vehicles should be one part of a city’s transportation plan. Shifting from internal combustion engine vehicles to plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) can improve urban air quality, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and reduce energy consumption. 2. Recent studies show that electric vehicle awareness is low even in mature markets; cities should promote electric vehicles to residents by leveraging existing promotional campaigns. 3. Various financial and non-financial incentives can effectively encourage electric vehicle uptake, including: free, discounted, or preferential-location parking; free or reduced road and bridge tolls; and allowing electric vehicles to drive in bus or carpool lanes. 4. Several cities are restricting or planning to restrict the access that internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) have to certain areas. If these restrictions apply to most (or all) passenger ICEVs, they can promote PEV purchase and use in cities. 5. Infrastructure development in cities should follow the same fundamental approach as that used outside of cities. The priority should be ensuring that PEV owners and prospective PEV buyers have access to charging at or near home. Workplace and public charging should be developed for those who cannot access charging at or near home. 6. Cities should be strategic in their approach, first identifying the goals they want to achieve, and then exploring what steps they can take to meet these goals. The steps available will likely differ between cities due to the different ways in which roads, parking, and any other vehicle infrastructure is governed.
    Keywords: Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences
    Date: 2020–01–01
  2. By: Kaitila, Ville
    Abstract: Abstract In order to fight the climate change, the European Union and Finland as its member country are seeking carbon neutrality by 2050, Finland already by 2035. In this brief, we assess the development of Finnish greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 equivalent) in 2019–2023 based on ETLA’s most recent macroeconomic and industry sector forecasts. Technological change that will cut greenhouse gas emissions is paramount for the efforts to reach carbon neutrality. We use three technological assumptions that describe how the emission intensity of value added may develop. Our baseline scenario, based on how value added will change in each industry combined with their average development in emission intensity over the past few years, shows that the aggregate emissions will decrease on average by less than two per cent annually up until 2023. This will not be enough to reach the carbon neutrality target with current carbon sinks with which the average required annual rate of decrease would be over seven per cent. Consequently, technological change needs to accelerate considerably. The public sector can support the efforts to reach carbon neutrality by, among other things, R&D funding, removing harmful subsidies, introducing environmental taxes, and being active in the development of the EU’s emissions trading system. Carbon neutrality can also be taken into account in public procurement and infrastructure investments.
    Keywords: Economic forecast, CO2, Carbon neutrality, Emissions trading
    JEL: E17 O11 O30 O44 O47
    Date: 2020–01–21
  3. By: Christopher J. Blackburn; Juan Moreno-Cruz
    Abstract: Industrial activity periodically experiences breakthrough innovations in energy efficiency, but the estimated impacts of these innovations on aggregate energy use are highly varied. We develop a general equilibrium model to investigate whether this variation is determined by the structure of the economy’s input-output network. Our results show sector-specific energy efficiency improvements affect aggregate energy use through adjustments in factor markets and commodity markets, and a process of structural transformation that alters the way energy is used and produced in the economy. We link the aggregate impact of these processes with new network centrality concepts that account for the capacity of a sector to transmit and respond to efficiency innovations. In a calibrated simulation, we find variation in these centrality concepts explains between 38 and 92 percent of variation in the aggregate impacts of energy efficiency, which suggests input-output structure is a critical determinant of the aggregate effects of energy efficiency.
    Keywords: energy efficiency, production network, input-output, rebound effect
    JEL: C67 D58 L23 O33 Q43 Q58
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Stephen Jarvis; Olivier Deschenes; Akshaya Jha
    Abstract: Many countries have phased out nuclear electricity production in response to concerns about nuclear waste and the risk of nuclear accidents. This paper examines the impact of the shutdown of roughly half of the nuclear production capacity in Germany after the Fukushima accident in 2011. We use hourly data on power plant operations and a novel machine learning framework to estimate how plants would have operated differently if the phase-out had not occurred. We find that the lost nuclear electricity production due to the phase-out was replaced primarily by coal-fired production and net electricity imports. The social cost of this shift from nuclear to coal is approximately 12 billion dollars per year. Over 70% of this cost comes from the increased mortality risk associated with exposure to the local air pollution emitted when burning fossil fuels. Even the largest estimates of the reduction in the costs associated with nuclear accident risk and waste disposal due to the phase-out are far smaller than 12 billion dollars.
    JEL: C4 Q4 Q5
    Date: 2019–12
  5. By: Brendan J. Casey; Wayne B. Gray; Joshua Linn; Richard Morgenstern
    Abstract: Pricing carbon emissions from a jurisdiction could harm the competitiveness of local firms, causing the leakage of emissions and economic activity to other regions. Past research concentrated on national carbon prices, but the impacts of subnational carbon prices could be more severe due to the openness of regional economies. Focusing on subnational carbon pricing in the United States, we specify a flexible model to capture competition between a plant in a state with carbon pricing and plants in other states or countries. We estimate model parameters using confidential plant-level data from 1982–2011 and simulate the effects of regional carbon prices covering the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic (regions that currently cap carbon emissions from the electric sector) on manufacturing output, employment, and profits. Importantly, we model industry mix within a state or region, not simply energy price differences. A carbon price of $10 per metric ton reduces employment in the regulated region by 2.7 percent, and raises employment in nearby states by 0.8 percent; the effects on output and profits are broadly similar. National employment falls just 0.1 percent, suggesting that domestic plants in other states as opposed to foreign facilities are the principal winners from state or regional carbon pricing.
    JEL: Q4 Q52 Q58
    Date: 2020–01
  6. By: OSHOTA, Sebil
    Abstract: A handful number of studies have sought to find a proper modeling strategy that captures the true dynamic relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Nigeria. Most of these studies have assumed a linear relationship in describing the pattern of behaviour in electricity-growth nexus. Departing from previous studies in the literature, this paper assumes both dynamic and asymmetric modelling approach in investigating the relationship between electricity Consumption and economic growth in Nigeria during the period 1971 to 2017, using the Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL). Our findings confirmed the existence of both the long and short run asymmetric relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. The study further shows that in the long run, decline in electricity (negative changes) has a reducing impact on economic growth. The implication of this is that in order to avoid reduction in economic growth that could be associated with decline in electricity consumption, policy makers should strive to maintain positive economic growth.
    Keywords: Electricity Consumption, Economic growth, NARDL Asymmetric Modelling.
    JEL: Q40 Q43
    Date: 2019–10–31
  7. By: Wu, Guoyuan; Zhao, Zhouqiao; Wang, Ziran; Barth, Matthew J.
    Abstract: With on-board sensors such as camera, radar, and Lidar, connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) can sense the surrounding environment and be driven autonomously and safely by themselves without colliding into other objects on the road. CAVs are also able to communicate with each other and roadside infrastructure via vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communications, respectively, sharing information on the vehicles’ states, signal phase and timing (SPaT) information, enabling CAVs to make decisions in a collaborative manner. As a typical scenario, ramp control attracts wide attention due to the concerns of safety and mobility in the merging area. In particular, if the line-of-the-sight is blocked (because of grade separation), then neither mainline vehicles nor on-ramp vehicles may well adapt their own dynamics to perform smoothed merging maneuvers. This may lead to speed fluctuations or even shockwave propagating upstream traffic along the corridor, thus potentially increasing the traffic delays and excessive energy consumption. In this project, the research team proposed a hierarchical ramp merging system that not only allowed microscopic cooperative maneuvers for connected and automated electric vehicles on the ramp to merge into mainline traffic flow, but also had controllability of ramp inflow rate, which enabled macroscopic traffic flow control. A centralized optimal control-based approach was proposed to both smooth the merging flow and improve the system-wide mobility of the network. Linear quadratic trackers in both finite horizon and receding horizon forms were developed to solve the optimization problem in terms of path planning and sequence determination, and a microscopic electric vehicle (EV) energy consumption model was applied to estimate the energy consumption. The simulation results confirmed that under the regulated inflow rate, the proposed system was able to avoid potential traffic congestion and improve the mobility (in terms of average speed) as much as 115%, compared to the conventional ramp metering and the ramp without any control approach. Interestingly, for EVs (connected and automated EVs in this study), the improved mobility may not necessarily result in the reduction of energy consumption. The “sweet spot” of average speed ranges from 27–34 mph for the EV models in this study. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Connected vehicles, automated vehicles, ramp merging management, optimal control
    Date: 2020–01–01
  8. By: Peñalver, Eduardo M.; Library, Cornell
    Abstract: In a brief but much noted passage of Laudato Si, Pope Francis criticized so-called “cap and trade” approaches to reducing carbon emissions. “The strategy of buying and selling ‘carbon credits,’” he said, “can lead to a new form of speculation, which would not help reduce the emission of polluting gases worldwide.” Commentators have interpreted the passage as a categorical and moralistic rejection of market-based solutions to climate change. Read within the context of the encyclical and the broader Catholic social tradition, however, it becomes clear that the Pope’s critique of cap-and-trade is simultaneously more and less all-encompassing than these initial readings allow. The Pope’s objection to market-based approaches to controlling carbon emissions is closely tied to his analysis of global economic inequality. It reflects an astute appreciation of the way in which inequality can distort the market’s ability to serve as an efficient and just means of allocating the costs of environmental protection. His critique therefore echoes earlier discussions within liberation theology of the notion of “structural sin” and reinforces calls within Catholic Social Thought for analysis of markets always to be considered within – and at the service of – a broader moral framework. Situating Francis’s discussion within these traditions makes clear that, under the right circumstances, a cap and trade system of emissions regulation could be consistent with the Pope’s analysis in Laudato Si. In this short essay, I will briefly describe the so-called “market-based” approaches to greenhouse gas reduction that have dominated policy discussions of climate change in recent years. I will then situate Pope Francis’s objection to these sorts of policy responses, both within the broader climate debate and within the tradition of Catholic social teaching. Finally, I will propose constraints that would seem to address Pope Francis’s concerns.
    Date: 2017–12–22
  9. By: Hao, Peng; Wei, Zhensong; Bai, Zhengwei; Barth, Matthew J.
    Abstract: The Eco-Approach and Departure (EAD) application has been proved to be environmentally efficient for a Connected and Automated Vehicles (CAVs) system. In the real-world traffic, traffic conditions and signal timings are usually dynamic and uncertain due to mixed vehicle types, various driving behaviors and limited sensing range, which is challenging in EAD development. This research proposes an adaptive strategy for connected eco-driving towards a signalized intersection under real world conditions. Stochastic graph models are built to link the vehicle and external (e.g., traffic, signal) data and dynamic programing is applied to identify the optimal speed for each vehicle-state efficiently. From energy perspective, adaptive strategy using traffic data could double the effective sensor range in eco-driving. A hybrid reinforcement learning framework is also developed for EAD in mixed traffic condition using both short-term benefit and long-term benefit as the action reward. Micro-simulation is conducted in Unity to validate the method, showing over 20% energy saving. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Eco-Approach and Departure, Connected Vehicles, reinforcement learning, energy, mixed traffic
    Date: 2020–01–01
  10. By: Lanot, Gauthier (Department of Economics, Umeå University); Vesterberg, Mattias (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
    Abstract: Using unique data on Swedish households, we measure the price elas- ticity of electricity demand for households facing a mandatory non-linear distribution tariffs where households are charged based on their maximum consumption during a month, and where the marginal incentives are very large. We estimate the price elasticity using both 2SLS and bunching esti- mators, and we find that the price elasticity is smaller than what previous literature on electricity demand have found. Furthermore, we illustrate why charging households based on maxi- mum consumption during a month leads to weak incentives in the end of the month, and discuss alternative tariff designs.
    Keywords: Demand flexibility; Non-linear pricing; Peak demand
    JEL: D12 Q41 Q48
    Date: 2020–01–30
  11. By: Vlastakis, Nikolaos; Triantafyllou, Athanasios; Kellard, Neil
    Abstract: In this paper we empirically examine the impact of oil price uncertainty shocks on US stock market volatility. We define the oil price uncertainty shock as the unanticipated component of oil price fluctuations. We find that our oil price uncertainty factor is the most significant predictor of stock market volatility when compared with various observable oil price and volatility measures commonly used in the literature. Moreover, we find that oil price uncertainty is a common volatility forecasting factor of S&P500 constituents, and it outperforms lagged stock market volatility and the VIX when forecasting volatility for medium and long-term forecasting horizons. Interestingly, when forecasting the volatility of S&P500 constituents, we find that the highest predictive power of oil price uncertainty is for the stocks which belong to the financial sector. Overall, our findings show that financial stability is significantly damaged when the degree of oil price unpredictability rises, while it is relatively immune to observable fluctuations in the oil market.
    Keywords: Stock market, Oil, Uncertainty, Realized Variance, Volatility
    Date: 2020–01–22
  12. By: Dimitrios Psychoyios (University of Piraeus); Olympia Missiou (International Hellenic University); Theologos Dergiades (Department of International & European Studies, University of Macedonia)
    Abstract: The shadow economy (SE) is a pathological normalcy, not only in developing countries but also in developed ones, causing disagreeable distortions in the real economy. In this paper, we estimate the size of the informal sector in nineteen countries of the European Union (EU) by implementing three variations of the physical input approach (we use electricity consumption as input). All estimates show that EU countries experience high shadow economy levels with a decreasing trend. Moreover, we assess the explanatory power of three governance quality indicators of the informal sector using a set of panel regression specifications as well as a set of quantile regression specifications. Both approaches show that overall governance quality is the most prominent factor in determining the SE levels. Given the inherent advantage of quantile regression to identify impact differentiations across the conditional distribution of the dependent variable a significant policy action is revealed. In particular, countries with high shadow economy levels can reduce their informal sector, at an increasing rate, by improving governance quality.
    Keywords: Shadow economy; Energy; Panel and Quantile regression; Governance quality.
    JEL: E26 G15 Q43 O17 O52
    Date: 2019–11
  13. By: BILLEN, Pieter; MAES, Ben; LARRAÍN, Macarena; BRAET, Johan
    Abstract: To date, global atmospheric concentrations of F-gases with alleged high global warming potential are still on the rise. The most potent among the greenhouse gases identified as such by IPCC is sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), which has been used in various applications because of its chemical stability and inertness, next to its high dielectric strength. In the European Union, its use has to date been banned from several applications, for which technological alternatives exist. An important exception is gas-insulated electrical switchgear (GIS), both for medium voltage and high voltage applications, to which cost-effective and environmentally sound alternatives were unavailable when the F-gas regulation was last revised in 2014. Yet, to date, interest in technological alternatives has grown, and we argue that a next step in the phasing out of SF6 may spur the accelerated development of alternatives with lower carbon footprint. The installed SF6 amount in switchgear in the EU-28 is unclear, estimated between 10 800 and 24 700 t (with a mode at 12 700 t) in 2017, resulting in 68 to 140 t of annual emissions from operational leakage only, corresponding to 1.6 to 3.3 Mt of CO2-eq. The higher emissions value seems more likely, as its underlying model (EDGAR) was earlier corroborated by measurements. In our study, we estimate the potential greenhouse gas savings over the lifecycle of one exemplary 145 kV gas-insulated switchgear bay upon replacing SF6 by decafluoro-2-methylbutan-3-one (C5-FK) and heptafluoro-2-methylpropanenitrile (C4-FN) mixtures. These single-bay results were projected over estimated future installed high-voltage GIS in the EU-28 consequentially. A phase-out scenario starting from 2020 onwards could reduce the carbon footprint by 4 to 31 Mt, with median at 14 Mt, of CO2-eq., over a period of 50 years. A phase-out starting in 2025, allowing more time for further technology development, results in 12.5 Mt of CO2-eq. (median) savings by 2070. Extrapolation to medium voltage is uncertain, given the decentralization of electricity distribution, yet one can assume savings of similar magnitude.
    Date: 2020–01
  14. By: Jussila Hammes, Johanna (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI))
    Abstract: Utsläppsminskningspotential från tunga lastbilstransporter (över 3,5 ton) beräknas för elektrifiering av de svenska europavägarna och vissa riksvägar. Fyra scenarier analyseras. I huvudscenariot (scenario 1) minskar utsläppen med ca 52 procent jämfört med de totala utsläppen från den tunga trafiken år 2017, på 3 326 kton CO2. En enkel analys av den samhällsekonomiska lönsamheten tyder på att med dagens koldioxidskatt på 1,15 SEK per kg CO2 och givet en ”låg” investeringskostnad på 20 mSEK per km väg skulle det kunna löna sig att elektrifiera E4 i Stockholms län och E6 i Skåne län. Marginalkostnaden för att elektrifiera hela E4 från Stockholm till Skåne och E6 från Skåne till den norska gränsen ligger på 2,38 SEK per kg CO2. Mer välutvecklade samhällsekonomiska analyser bör dock göras innan investeringsbeslut fattas.
    Keywords: Electric roads; Carbon dioxide; Net present value of carbon dioxide emissions reductions; Sweden; Heavy freight transport
    JEL: Q54 Q55 R42
    Date: 2020–01–27
  15. By: Dana Kassem
    Abstract: I ask whether electrification causes industrial development. I combine newly digitized data from the Indonesian state electricity company with rich manufacturing census data. To understand when and how electrification can cause industrial development, I shed light on an important economic mechanism - firm turnover. In particular, I study the effect of the extensive margin of electrification (grid expansion) on the extensive margin of industrial development (firm entry and exit). To deal with endogenous grid placement, I use an instrumental variable approach exploiting the location of colonial electric infrastructure and the need for an interconnected grid in the island of Java. I find that electrification causes industrial development by increasing the number of manufacturing firms, manufacturing workers, and manufacturing output. Electrification increases firm entry rates, but also exit rates. Higher turnover rates lead to higher average productivity and induce reallocation towards more productive firms. This is consistent with electrification lowering entry costs, increasing competition and forcing unproductive firms to exit more often.
    JEL: D24 O13 O14 O18 Q41 R11 R12
    Date: 2020–01
  16. By: Perumal, S.S.G.; Dollevoet, T.A.B.; Huisman, D.; Lusby, R.M.; Larsen, J.; Riis, M.
    Abstract: The use of electric buses is expected to rise due to its environmental benefits. However, electric vehicles are less exible than conventional diesel buses due to their limited driving range and longer recharging times. Therefore, scheduling electric vehicles adds further operational dificulties. Additionally, various labor regulations challenge public transport companies to find a cost-effcient crew schedule. Vehicle and crew scheduling problems essentially define the cost of operations. In practice, these two problems are often solved sequentially. In this paper, we introduce the integrated electric vehicle and crew scheduling problem (E-VCSP). Given a set of timetabled trips and recharging stations, the E-VCSP is concerned with finding vehicle and crew schedules that cover the timetabled trips and satisfy operational constraints, such as limited driving range of electric vehicles and labor regulations for the crew while minimizing total operational cost. An adaptive large neighborhood search that utilizes branch-and-price heuristics is proposed to tackle the E-VCSP. The proposed method is tested on real-life instances from public transport companies in Denmark and Sweden that contain up to 1,109 timetabled trips. The heuristic approach provides evidence of improving efficiency of transport systems when the electric vehicle and crew scheduling aspects are considered simultaneously. By comparing to the traditional sequential approach, the heuristic finds improvements in the range of 1.17-4.37% on average. A sensitivity analysis of the electric bus technology is carried out to indicate its implications for the crew schedule and the total operational cost. The analysis shows that the operational cost decreases with increasing driving range (120 to 250 kilometers) of electric vehicles.
    Keywords: Public Transportation, Integrated Planning, Column Generation, Adaptive Large Neighborhood Search
    Date: 2020–01–01
  17. By: Erik Heilmann (University of Kassel); Nikolai Klempp (University of Stuttgart); Heike Wetzel (University of Kassel)
    Abstract: With a growing number of distributed energy resources, the electricity network is challenged with a higher quantity of technical problems such as capacity congestions and over- or under-voltages. One often-discussed approach to solve these problems, especially in the European zonal electricity system, is regional fl exibility markets. We provide a novel metric for the design of flexibility products by combining technical requirements with a background in auction theory. This is a valuable contribution to the discussion of regional flexibility markets, which currently occurs on a largely technical or conceptual level. The metric structures 23 product parameters in four stages of different abstraction levels. By applying this metric to five fl exibility market approaches used in current German research projects, we demonstrate its usability for consistent description and comparison of flexibility products. Therefore, the metric we have developed, is a powerful instrument for structured analysis and assessment of the vast diversity of approaches to fl exibility markets and products at a high level of detail. This metric can empower national and international policy makers and practitioners in developing and assessing flexibility markets holistically and can help to simplify the implementation of best-practice solutions.
    Keywords: smart markets, market design, electricity product design, fl exibility market
    JEL: D47 L94 Q41
    Date: 2020
  18. By: Enrique Villamor (FIU); Pablo Olivares (Ryerson University)
    Abstract: In this paper we study the pricing of exchange options when underlying assets have stochastic volatility and stochastic correlation. An approximation using a closed-form approximation based on a Taylor expansion of the conditional price is proposed. Numerical results are illustrated for exchanges between WTI and Brent type oil prices.
    Date: 2020–01
  19. By: Walid Mensi (College of Economics and Political Science, Sultan Qaboos University); Shawkat Hammoudeh (Lebow College of Business, Drexel University, Philadelphia, United States); Aviral Kumar Tiwari (Montpellier Business School, Montpellier, France); Khamis Hamed Al-Yahyaee (Department of Economics and Finance, College of Economics and Political Science, Sultan Qaboos University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the left and right tail dependence-switching structure between twelve MENA stock markets, and oil and other major global factors. We compare the MENA–oil tail dependence with that of Bitcoin, gold, and VIX. Using a recent combined wavelet and dependence-switching copula approach, we show evidence of significant tail dependence between MENA stock markets and oil and the other global factors. The dependence structure varies across the associated different regimes and under both the short- and long-term horizons. Moreover, the safe haven role of gold is more apparent in the long term than in the short term for all MENA markets, and this result is similar for Bitcoin but is less evident for VIX. We conclude by providing policy implications.
    Date: 2019–09–20
  20. By: Yris Fondja Wandji (UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement - UA - Université des Antilles - UG - Université de Guyane - UM - Université de Montpellier - UR - Université de La Réunion - AU - Avignon Université - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement); Jules Kamdem (MRE - Montpellier Recherche en Economie - UM - Université de Montpellier, UG - Université de Guyane)
    Abstract: Le but de cette étude est d'évaluer la rente économique potentielle générée par le secteur hydroélectrique en Afrique. La méthodologie utilisée consiste à calculer cette rente comme étant la différence entre les coûts totaux minimisés de deux systèmes énergétiques hypothétiques : l'un avec l'hydroélectricité et l'autre sans hydroélectricité. Nos estimations permettent de conclure que la valeur de la rente hydroélectrique avoisinerait 2 $/MWh. Ainsi, le développement de cette source d'énergie en Afrique aiderait le continent à assurer sa transition énergétique, engendrerait des surprofits pour des pays qui disposent d'importants potentiels et constituerait une source de rente pour tous les autres pays importateurs d'énergie électrique.
    Date: 2020–01–09
  21. By: Raul Jimenez Mori
    Abstract: In developing countries, poor quality infrastructure that is highly subsidized is typically associated with populist political interference. In such a context, implementing cost-recovery tariffs, necessary to improve infrastructure services, is a political challenge. This paper examines how levels of enduser satisfaction and price fairness perception respond to different price-quality mixes of electricity services in the urban Dominican Republic. The analysis exploits a rich dataset that includes informal and formal users, as well as heterogeneity in a set of service characteristics (i.e., reliability and commercial quality). I further exploit temporal variation in exposure to service improvements and electricity subsidies to evaluate if consumer attitudes change over time. The results suggest that the marginal positive effect of improvements in service quality on satisfaction is greater than the marginal negative effects of increasing prices and eliminating subsidies combined. In this case study, I find no evidence of attitude adaptation, suggesting that favorable views of service improvements have lasting effects. Overall, the results seem to suggest that price adjustments related to electricity service improvements permanently increase customer satisfaction.
    Keywords: Consumer Satisfaction, Price Fairness, Electricity Services, Electricity Prices, Quality ofElectricity Services, Subsidies.
    JEL: D60 L94 L98
    Date: 2020–01–23
  22. By: Adachi, Misato
    Abstract: The development of renewable energy sources is central to the goal of gaining independence from conventional fossil fuels and achieving a sustainable energy supply. As these technologies are not yetfully developed and due to multi-dimensional selection environments cannotalwayscompete with conventional energy sources in the market, renewable energy sources initially require temporary protective space. Although some research has identified important factors with regard to the development of renewable technologies, there have not been any clear empirical studies, especially focusing on the new Member Statesof the European Union. Bulgaria and Poland in particular showed divergent results with regard to the deployment of the renewables. One, Bulgaria, achieved an outstanding increase in the share of energycoming from renewablessince its target was set in 2009, while another, Poland, has seen a sluggish result with regard to its policies. The aim of this paper is to identifythe factors leading to the successful promotion of renewable energy in the new Member States by using a comparative study of the cases of Bulgaria and Poland. The comparative study is conducted based on the three protective spaces advocated by Smith & Raven (2012). As a result, two main factors can be seen as the determinants of the success of renewable energy policies; "mprovement of connection to grid networks in shielding process" and "schemes for a transition from a niche space to a socio-technical regime in an energy industry structure in empowering process." Additionally, the delay of effective renewable energy policy implementation, which in the case of Poland, led to a failure of policy.
    Keywords: Bulgaria,Empowering,EU,Evolutionary theory,New Member States,Nurturing,Protective space,Poland,Renewable energy policy,Shielding
    Date: 2020
  23. By: Tetsuji Okazaki (Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo)
    Abstract: This paper investigates how mechanization, white-collar human capital, and the complementarity between them led to an improvement in the labor productivity of bluecollar workers. We estimated production functions that included interaction terms between variables representing the intensity of physical capital and white-collar human capital, using detailed mine-level panel data from the coal mining industry in prewar Japan. We found that mechanization and white-collar human capital were indeed complementary. That is, in the mines where mechanization proceeded, and only in those mines, the higher the education level of white-collar workers was, the larger was the impact on the labor productivity of blue-collar workers.
    Date: 2019–12
  24. By: Schlösser, Alexander
    Abstract: We investigate the predictive power of several leading indicators in order to forecast industrial production in Germany. In addition, we compare their predictive performance with variables from two competing categories, namely macroeconomic and financial variables. The predictive power within and between these three categories is evaluated by applying Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) which allows for timevarying coefficients and model change. We find that leading indicators have the largest predictive power. Macroeconomic variables, in contrast, are weak predictors as they are even not able to outperform a benchmark AR model, while financial variables are clearly inferior in terms of their predictive power compared to leading indicators. We show that the best set of predictors, within and between categories, changes over time and depends on the forecast horizon. Furthermore, allowing for time-varying model size is especially crucial after the Great Recession.
    Keywords: forecasting,industrial production,model averaging,leading indicator,time-varying parameter
    JEL: C11 C52 E23 E27
    Date: 2020
  25. By: Jeffrey Ding; Allan Dafoe
    Abstract: What resources and technologies are strategic? This question is often the focus of policy and theoretical debates, where the label "strategic" designates those assets that warrant the attention of the highest levels of the state. But these conversations are plagued by analytical confusion, flawed heuristics, and the rhetorical use of "strategic" to advance particular agendas. We aim to improve these conversations through conceptual clarification, introducing a theory based on important rivalrous externalities for which socially optimal behavior will not be produced alone by markets or individual national security entities. We distill and theorize the most important three forms of these externalities, which involve cumulative-, infrastructure-, and dependency-strategic logics. We then employ these logics to clarify three important cases: the Avon 2 engine in the 1950s, the U.S.-Japan technology rivalry in the late 1980s, and contemporary conversations about artificial intelligence.
    Date: 2020–01

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