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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroon); Mary Oluwatoyin Agboola (Riyadh, Saudi Arabia); Andrew Adewale Alola (Istanbul Gelisim University, Istanbul, Turkey); Festus Victor Bekun (Istanbul Gelisim University, Istanbul, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | While most African economies are primarily sandwiched with the seemingly unsurmountable task of attaining consistent economic growth and unhindered energy supply, the enormous threat posed by environmental degradation has further complicated the economic and environmental sustainability drive. In this context, the present study examines the effect of economic growth, urbanization, electricity consumption, fossil fuel energy consumption, and total natural resources rent on pollutant emissions in Africa over the period 1980-2014. By employing selected African countries, the current study relies on the Kao and Pedroni cointegration tests to cointegration analysis, the Pesaran’s Panel Pooled Mean Group-Autoregressive distributive lag methodology (ARDL-PMG) for long run regression while Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) is employed for the detection of causality direction among the outlined variables. The study traces long run equilibrium relationships b-etween examined indicators. The ARDL-PMG results suggest a statistical positive relationship between pollutant emissions and urbanization, electricity consumption and non-renewable energy consumption. Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) Granger causality test lends support to the long-run regression results. Bi-directional causality is observed between pollutant emissions, electricity consumption, economic growth and pollutant emissions while a unidirectional causality is apparent between total natural resources rent and pollutant emissions. Based on these results, several policy implications for the African continent were suggested. (a) The need for a paradigm shift from fossil fuel sources to renewables is encouraged in the region (b) The need to embrace carbon storage and capturing techniques to decouple pollutant emissions from economic growth on the continent’s growth trajectory. Further policy insights are elucidated. |
| Keywords: | non- renewable energy consumption; electricity consumption; economic growth; panel econometrics; Africa |
| JEL: | C32 Q40 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:19/093&r=all |
| By: | K, Ashin Nishan M; ASHIQ, MUHAMMED V |
| Abstract: | The correspondence among energy use, carbon dioxide emissions and growth is a matter of discussion among policymakers, economists and researchers. It is not possible to deny that the concept of sustainable development inspires them for the enquiry into this arena. The primary aspiration of this work is to develop and use the machine learning technique in the prediction of carbon dioxide emissions and growth by taking energy use as the inputs variables. Our findings suggest that the prediction accuracy of the CO2 and growth can improve by using machine learning techniques. In this case, prediction using Adam optimisation is better than Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) in the context of carbon dioxide emissions and growth. Further, result highlights that movement from fossil fuel use to renewable energy use is a possible way to reduce carbon dioxide emissions without sacrificing economic growth. |
| Date: | 2019–12–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:gkpbu&r=all |
| By: | Syed Abul, Basher |
| Abstract: | This chapter provides a survey of studies concerning the relationship between crude oil prices and other energy commodities such as coal and natural gas. Although such an assessment demands an interdisciplinary approach to provide readers with important background information, the approach taken here is based upon the economics of the energy market. The empirical studies summarized here can be categorized into three groups: time series studies analyzing market integration between oil and other energy commodities, studies that examine the predictive content of futures prices for energy, and the role of tail risk in explaining price volatilities of oil and other energy commodities. Several suggestions for future research are offered. |
| Keywords: | Oil price, time series of energy prices, tail risk, predictive content of energy futures. |
| JEL: | Q41 Q47 |
| Date: | 2019–12–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:97318&r=all |
| By: | Lawrence H. Goulder; Xianling Long; Jieyi Lu; Richard D. Morgenstern |
| Abstract: | China is planning to implement the largest CO 2 emissions trading system in the world. To reduce emissions, the system will be a tradable performance standard (TPS), an emissions pricing mechanism that differs significantly from the emissions pricing instruments used in other countries, such as cap and trade (C&T) and a carbon tax. We employ matching analytically and numerically solved models to assess the cost-effectiveness and distributional impacts of China’s forthcoming TPS for achieving CO 2 emissions reductions from the power sector. We find that the TPS’s implicit subsidy to electricity output has wide-ranging consequences for both cost-effectiveness and distribution. In terms of cost-effectiveness, the subsidy disadvantages the TPS relative to C&T by causing power plants to make less efficient use of output-reduction as a way of reducing emissions (indeed, it induces some generators to increase output) and by limiting the cost-reducing potential of allowance trading. In our central case simulations, TPS’s overall costs are about 47 percent higher than under C&T. At the same time, the TPS has distribution-related attractions. Through the use of multiple benchmarks (maximal emission-output ratios consistent with compliance), it can serve distributional objectives. And because it yields smaller increases in electricity prices than a comparable C&T system, it implies less international emissions leakage. |
| JEL: | H23 Q43 Q48 Q5 Q54 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26537&r=all |
| By: | Gabin Mantulet (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, IPNO - Institut de Physique Nucléaire d'Orsay - UP11 - Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 - IN2P3 - Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Adrien Bidaud (IPNO - Institut de Physique Nucléaire d'Orsay - UP11 - Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 - IN2P3 - Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Silvana Mima (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes) |
| Abstract: | The study explores future development of biomass uses across different climate policy scenarios and under different assumptions of biomass supply availability and technology performances. Broad bioenergy technology portfolios and generations provide flexibility to allocate bioenergy to supply a specific final energy mix and to remove carbon dioxide by combining bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS). The paper aim is to perform a detailed and focused analysis of the availability of biomass gasification and methanisation and the role of these green gas energy carriers in the decarbonisation strategies using a model based approach to see how some countries technology appropriation evolves through the XXI st century. The results show that the future of bioenergy depends mostly on countries bioenergy supply and demand that are partly triggered by climate policies. Besides, very diverse local biomass end use patterns are highlighted depending on local resource availability, economic growth and climate policies. The majority of modern uses will be possible with a biomass transformation through the gas vector thanks to methanisation and gasification processes. Technology maturities and efficiencies are also essential for bioenergy development for the field competitiveness. In presence of climate policies, the deployment of biomass methanisation and gasification increases two or three times faster due to higher competitiveness compared to highly taxed fossil fuel. The possibility to implement CCS fosters even more the use of bioenergy for decarbonisation strategies in the long term and switching the allocation of the resource in favor of gasification with CCS. |
| Keywords: | Long-term energy modelling,decarbonisation,bioenergy,gasification,methanisation,biogas,CCS,flexibility 2 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02418770&r=all |
| By: | Aghababaei, Mohammad Ebrahim |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the sensitivity of macro and sectoral variables to natural resource revenues in a resource-abundant developing country. Here, different transmission mechanisms are in effect. The paper considers the exchange rate channel, financial sector channel, capital flow channel, public sector channel, and resource reallocation channel. I employ a large scale real-financial general equilibrium model with especial focus on fossil fuel energy, natural resources, financial sector interactions, inter-sectoral linkages, and public sector responses. The model is used to predict the likely changes in oil and gas exports in Iran. It causes more oil exports but at lower international prices. Our comparative static analysis indicates that resource elasticity for GDP is from +0.10 to +0.13; for public services is from +0.16 to +0.27; for import is from +0.42 to +0.45; for mineral extraction is from -0.50 to -0.10, and for the manufacturing sector is from -0.08 to -0.06. The simulation reveals extraction competition among natural resources. |
| Keywords: | General equilibrium, natural resources, Dutch Disease, trade, non-tariff barriers |
| JEL: | C68 F11 O13 O24 Q33 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:97851&r=all |
| By: | Jenn, Alan; Azevedo, Inês; Michalek, Jeremy Joseph |
| Abstract: | The transportation sector is currently the largest contributor of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States, and light-duty vehicles produce the majority of transportation emissions. Federal standards for fleet-averaged vehicle GHG emission rates and their corresponding corporate average fuel economy standards cap GHG emissions of the US light-duty vehicle fleet. In addition, two key policies aim to encourage a future fleet transition to alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) technologies: (1) incentives that treat AFVs favorably in the federal GHG standard, and (2) state zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) policy, which mandates AFV sales in some states. While each of these AFV policies can encourage AFV adoption, we show that net GHG emissions increase when both policies are present simultaneously. Specifically, we estimate changes in life cycle GHG emissions and gasoline consumption, relative to a pure federal fleet GHG standard (without AFV incentives or mandates), resulting from the introduction of (1) AFV incentives in federal fleet GHG policy, (2) state ZEV mandates, and (3) the combination of the two. We find that under fairly general conditions the combined AFV policies produce higher GHG emissions than either policy alone. This result is a consequence of state mandates increasing AFV sales in the presence of federal incentives that relax the fleet GHG standard when AFVs are sold. Using AFV sales projections from the Energy Information Administration and the California Air Resources Board, we estimate that the combined policies produce an increase on the order of 100 million tons of CO2 emissions cumulatively for new passenger cars sold from 2012 through 2025 relative to a pure GHG standard. AFV incentives in the GHG standard conflate policy goals by encouraging AFV adoption at the cost of higher fleet GHG emissions, and they permit even higher fleet GHG emissions when other policies, such as the ZEV mandate, increase AFV adoption. |
| Date: | 2019–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:n69tp&r=all |
| By: | Michael Donadelli (University of Brescia, Research Center SAFE); Patrick Grüning (Bank of Lithuania, Vilnius University); Steffen Hitzemann (Rutgers Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the transition to a low-carbon economy and its effects on macroeconomic quantities and asset prices. Empirically, we document that the relative valuation of fossil fuel firms has significantly declined with the rise of climate change risk awareness. We develop a macro asset pricing model for the climate transition that matches this empirical fact and allows us to characterize the dynamics of macroeconomic aggregates and asset prices during and after the transition. In particular, we analyze (i) firm valuation dynamics, (ii) climate policy risk premia, (iii) capital reallocation between sectors, and (iv) the behavior of oil prices. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Policy risk, General equilibrium, Risk premia, Oil market |
| JEL: | E2 E3 G12 Q43 |
| Date: | 2019–12–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lie:dpaper:18&r=all |
| By: | Yash Chawla; Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska; Burcu Oralhan |
| Abstract: | Increasing the efficiency of electricity transmission is nearing the top of the agenda in many countries around the world. Turkey, the world's newly industrialized country, is no different. Modernizing the current transmission grids to Smart Grids (SG) and national rollout of smart meters (SM), are some of the measures taken by the government to meet the growing demand for electricity. Consumer acceptance and engagement are among the most important elements for success of SG and SM, however, there has been no such study done among Turkish electricity consumers. This study was aimed to fill this gap, by outlining the attitudes and expectations of Turkish citizens regarding SM and listing recommendations for energy companies based on the findings. Through an online questionnaire, responses from 504 social media users were collected and analyzed. Results show that the consumers are open towards the acceptance of SM, but there is a need to raise the awareness and knowledge through proper communication channels. Even though the study was conducted among social media users, it was revealed that a range of conventional and digital channels need to be actively used in order to enhance consumer willingness. Increasing social interactions regarding SM is one of the key recommendations detailed by the authors. |
| Keywords: | smart meters; social acceptance; knowledge; Turkish electricity market; consumers; social media; |
| JEL: | D12 D90 D91 Q01 Q55 |
| Date: | 2019–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1906&r=all |
| By: | Hassler, John (IIES, University of Gothenburg and CEPR); Krusell, Per (IIES, CEPR and NBER); Olovsson, Conny (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden) |
| Abstract: | How do markets economize on scarce natural resources? With an applica-tion to fossil energy, we emphasize technological change aimed at saving on the scarce resource. We develop quantitative macroeconomic theory as a tool for interpreting the past and thinking about the future. We argue, first, that aggre-gate U.S. data calls for a short-run substitution elasticity between energy and the capital/labor inputs that is near Leontief. Given this fact and an aggregate CES function, we note that energy-saving technical change took o right as the oil shocks hit in the 1970s. We rationalize this observation using a theory that views technical change as directed: it can be used to save on different inputs and, hence, the long-run substitutability between inputs becomes higher than Leontief. For our application, we estimate long-run dependence on fossil energy - measured by its factor share - to climb to a little below 10%; absent endogenous technical change directed toward energy-saving, it would go to 100%. |
| Keywords: | Sustainability; Natural resource scarcity; technological change; economic growth; energy |
| JEL: | E13 E20 Q30 Q43 |
| Date: | 2019–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0375&r=all |
| By: | Huang, Charlotte; Elsland, Rainer |
| Abstract: | In the context of the German Energiewende (energy transition), energy system modelling is used to investigate possible future scenarios of the national energy system. These models depend on regionally disaggregated input data to ade-quately capture interdependencies in the energy system at high resolution. In Germany, official energy consumption statistics are only published at the national (AGEB, 2019a) and federal state (LAK, 2019) levels - there are no official statis-tics on residential electricity consumption with higher regional resolution. So far, energy system modelling has typically relied on specific consumption val-ues or constant per-capita estimators (see Beer (2012) and Hartel et al. (2017)) to approximate residential electricity consumption with a regional resolution be-yond that of federal state. The use of primary data on electricity consumption at household level has so far been limited. Yet, primary data, e.g. from the German Residential Energy Consumption Survey (GRECS), displays heterogeneity in household-level electricity consumption, which cannot be captured by constant per-capita distribution keys. This study aims to investigate whether integrating primary data into quantitative modelling of energy systems contributes to a more realistic representation of regional electricity consumption by accounting for het-erogeneity in household electricity consumption. A synthetic population is generated via the Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) al-gorithm based on primary data on household electricity consumption taken from the German Residential Energy Consumption Survey (GRECS), as well as re-gion-specific data at municipal (Gemeindeebene) level taken from the 2011 German census. Total residential electricity consumption at municipal level is then inferred from the synthetic population. Estimates of total residential electricity consumption were derived for 2011 for all municipalities of the German state Rhineland-Palatinate and evaluated against benchmark values from the Net-zentwicklungsplan 2030 (Fraunhofer ISI, 2017) of the same year, which is avail-able at the regional resolution of German urban and rural districts, referred to here as "counties" (Stadt- und Landkreise). The derived estimates achieved an R² of around 0.99 with respect to benchmark values. Overall, the estimates were 6.8% below the benchmark value for Rhine-land-Palatinate. It can be concluded that Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) con-stitutes a viable approach to integrate primary data into deriving regional esti-mates of residential electricity consumption at municipal level. |
| Keywords: | regional analysis,techno-economic modelling,survey-based ap-proach,residential sector,Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF),synthetic population,electricity consumption |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s102019&r=all |
| By: | Davide Ferrari; Francesco Ravazzolo (Universitätt Bozen; Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam; Norges Bank; Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; University of California Santa Cruz; Tinbergen Instituut; Handelshøyskolen BI; Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP)); Joaquin L. Vespignani |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on forecasting quarterly energy prices of commodities, such as oil, gas and coal, using the Global VAR dataset proposed by Mohaddes and Raissi (2018). This dataset includes a number of potentially informative quarterly macroeconomic variables for the 33 largest economies, overall accounting for more than 80% of the global GDP. To deal with the information in this large database, we apply a dynamic factor model based on a penalized maximum likelihood approach that allows us to shrink parameters to zero and to estimate sparse factor loadings. The estimated latent factors show considerable sparsity and heterogeneity in the selected loadings across variables. When the model is extended to predict energy commodity prices up to four periods ahead, results indicate larger predictability relative to the benchmark random walk model for 1-quarter ahead for all energy commodities. In our application, the largest improvement in terms of prediction accuracy is observed when predicting gas prices from 1 to 4 quarters ahead. |
| Keywords: | Energy Prices; Forecasting; Dynamic Factor Model; Sparse Estimation; Penalized Maximum Likelihood |
| JEL: | C1 C5 C8 E3 Q4 |
| Date: | 2019–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddgw:86692&r=all |
| By: | Höfer, Tim (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an evaluation of four energy transition scenarios under consideration of multiple stakeholder opinions. We construct a multi-criteria group decision model that applies Value-Focused Thinking to construct a holistic objective system and Multi-Attribute Utility Theory to evaluate the energy transition scenarios. Although the individual scenario evaluations show that the opinions of the stakeholders towards a sustainable energy transition differ largely, we are able to derive three main strands of opinions among the considered stakeholders. For this, we apply a clustering technique to identify and bundle the stakeholders into three groups. This bundling of stakeholder interests enables the identification of the most important policy recommendations for a sustainable energy transition. For the case of Germany, these are to reduce GHG and pollutant emissions and at the same time enable citizens’ participation, limit the visual impact on landscapes, and ensuring internationally comparable energy-related political frameworks for the economy. For the case of a sustainable energy transition in Germany, we find that the stakeholders considered prefer either the highly ambitious climate protection scenario (Scenario B) or the Pan-European scenario (Scenario C). The reference scenario, which was developed by the German Transmission System Operators (TSOs), turns out to be relatively unpopular. |
| Keywords: | Value-Focused Thinking; Group Decision Making; MAUT; Energy Scenarios |
| JEL: | D70 D81 O52 Q48 |
| Date: | 2019–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2019_006&r=all |
| By: | Davide Ferrari; Francesco Ravazzolo; Joaquin Vespignani |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on forecasting quarterly energy prices of commodities, such as oil, gas and coal, using the Global VAR dataset proposed by Mohaddes and Raissi (2018). This dataset includes a number of potentially informative quarterly macroeconomic variables for the 33 largest economies, overall accounting for more than 80% of the global GDP. To deal with the information on this large database, we apply a dynamic factor model based on a penalized maximum likelihood approach that allows to shrink parameters to zero and to estimate sparse factor loadings. The estimated latent factors show considerable sparsity and heterogeneity in the selected loadings across variables. When the model is extended to predict energy commodity prices up to four periods ahead, results indicate larger predictability relative to the benchmark random walk model for 1-quarter ahead for all energy commodities. In our application, the largest improvement in terms of prediction accuracy is observed when predicting gas prices from 1 to 4 quarters ahead. |
| Keywords: | Energy Prices, Forecasting, Dynamic Factor model, Sparse Estimation, Penalized Maximum Likelihood |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bny:wpaper:0083&r=all |
| By: | Davide Ferrari; Francesco Ravazzolo; Joaquin Vespignani |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on forecasting quarterly energy prices of commodities, such as oil, gas and coal, using the Global VAR dataset proposed by Mohaddes and Raissi (2018). This dataset includes a number of potentially informative quarterly macroeconomic variables for the 33 largest economies, overall accounting for more than 80% of the global GDP. To deal with the information on this large database, we apply a dynamic factor model based on a penalized maximum likelihood approach that allows to shrink parameters to zero and to estimate sparse factor loadings. The estimated latent factors show considerable sparsity and heterogeneity in the selected loadings across variables. When the model is extended to predict energy commodity prices up to four periods ahead, results indicate larger predictability relative to the benchmark random walk model for 1-quarter ahead for all energy commodities. In our application, the largest improvement in terms of prediction accuracy is observed when predicting gas prices from 1 to 4 quarters ahead. |
| Keywords: | Energy Prices, Forecasting, Dynamic Factor model, Sparse Estimation, Penalized Maximum Likelihood |
| JEL: | C1 C5 C8 E3 Q4 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-90&r=all |
| By: | Imelda, Imelda; Verma, Anjali P. |
| Abstract: | Women are known to bear the largest share of health, time and labor supply burden associated with a lack of modern energy. In this paper, we study the impact of clean energy access on adult health and labor supply outcomes by exploiting a nationwide rollout of clean cooking fuel program in Indonesia. This program led to a large-scale fuel switching, from kerosene, a dirty fuel, to liquid petroleum gas, a significantly cleaner and efficient cooking fuel than kerosene. Using rich longitudinal survey data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey and the staggered structure of the program roll-out, we find that access to clean cooking fuel led to a significant improvement in women's health, particularly among those who spend most of their time indoors doing housework. We also find an increase in the labor supplied by these women on both intensive and extensive margins. This suggests that having clean and efficient cooking fuel may not only improve women's health but also improve their productivity, subsequently allowing them to supply more market labor. For men, we find an increase in the labor supplied only along the intensive margin, with a higher increase among men in households where women accrued the largest health and labor benefits from the program. These results highlight the role of clean energy in reducing gender-disparity in health and labor participation and point to the existence of positive externality from improved health and productivity of women on other members of the household. |
| Keywords: | Indonesia; Labor Supply; Health; Energy Access; Gender Inequality |
| JEL: | Q53 Q48 O13 J22 I18 I15 H51 |
| Date: | 2019–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:werepe:29397&r=all |
| By: | Yash Chawla; Anna Kowalska-Pyzalska; Paulo Duarte Silveira |
| Abstract: | National roll-outs of smart meters (SM) have been undertaken in most of the European countries. The exchange of traditional meters into smart ones is a part of power system transmission into so called smart grids. In these smart grids, the communication and sharing of information happens in real-time and all market players, such as energy suppliers, sellers and consumers, play an important role. As the literature reveals, the successful deployment of SM requires consumers' awareness and engagement. That is why, within this paper, we investigate the impact of consumers' knowledge on what SM is, as well as the role of marketing platforms: both traditional (i.e. TV or radio) and modern ones (i.e. social media) in SM diffusion. Based on the on-line survey conducted in Portugal (N=518), we provide some policy and practical recommendations for energy companies and local authorities regarding the effective usage of marketing platforms and content. |
| Keywords: | smart metering; knowledge; marketing platforms; communication channels; social media; diffusion; on-line questionnaire |
| JEL: | D12 D90 D91 Q01 Q55 |
| Date: | 2019–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1905&r=all |
| By: | Mohamed Ramadan A. Rezk (Academy of Scientific Research & Technology); Amr Radwan (Academy of Scientific Research & Technology); Nahed M. Salem (Academy of Scientific Research & Technology); Mahmoud M. Sakr (Academy of Scientific Research & Technology); Manuela Tvaronavičienė (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents energy opportunities, particular areas of high potential and reflections on energy challenges in Egypt by the year 2040. Energy foresight significantly contributes in the effective review and formulation of national energy policies and strategies. In this work, 350 experts participated in real-time Delphi survey and responded to a set of structured and cross-linked questionnaires that aim to assess and provide future dimension to the energy sector in Egypt. Priorities are presented across 14 energy cluster-areas with 180 identified topics. The two-round Delphi study with an iterative process was performed to determine and measure the expectations of the different stakeholders with specific emphasis on the prospects of renewable energy and energy efficiency. The designed cross-linkages between survey components allowed the systematic pooling and convergence of knowledge in addition to the technical insights and different perspectives. About 50% of Egypt's energy demand was foresighted to be met by renewable energies around 2030. The results showed that all types of energy would not only provide economic and environmental benefits but also improve living standards. This work demonstrates that involving large diversity of expertise and different stakeholders, comprising heterogeneous groups, in foresight studies would potentiate the forecasting power, reduce the polarization effect, and enhance the reliability of the foresight exercise. |
| Keywords: | science policy,foresight,Delphi survey,energy,sustainable development,renewable energy |
| Date: | 2019–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02342723&r=all |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | En este documento se presentan cuadros regionales y nacionales con datos estadísticos del subsector hidrocarburos de los ocho países que conforman el Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA): Belice, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panamá y la República Dominicana. El informe consta de cinco grupos de cuadros, todos referidos al petróleo (petróleo crudo y productos derivados) y gas natural: a) valor de las importaciones y precios; b) balances de petróleo, derivados y gas natural; c) consumo interno de hidrocarburos; d) procedencia de las importaciones y la capacidad de almacenamiento; y e) estructura de los mercados. |
| Keywords: | COMBUSTIBLES, HIDROCARBUROS, CONSUMO, PRECIOS DEL PETROLEO, EXPORTACIONES, IMPORTACIONES, ESTADISTICAS DE ENERGIA, FUELS, HYDROCARBONS, CONSUMPTION, PETROLEUM PRICES, EXPORTS, IMPORTS, ENERGY STATISTICS |
| Date: | 2019–12–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col094:45015&r=all |
| By: | Christopher R. Knittel; Samuel Stolper |
| Abstract: | We use causal forests to evaluate the heterogeneous treatment effects (TEs) of repeated behavioral nudges towards household energy conservation. The average response is a monthly electricity reduction of 9 kilowatt-hours (kWh), but the full distribution of responses ranges from -30 to +10 kWh. Selective targeting of treatment using the forest raises social net benefits by 12-120 percent, depending on the year and welfare function. Pre-treatment consumption and home value are the strongest predictors of treatment effect. We find suggestive evidence of a "boomerang effect": households with lower consumption than similar neighbors are the ones with positive TE estimates. |
| JEL: | C53 D90 Q40 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26531&r=all |
| By: | Dominik Bertsche (Department of Economics, University of Konstanz) |
| Abstract: | Oil supply shocks have been found to be important drivers of US business cycles. The literature studies the effects of two types of shortfalls in supply separately: a ‘flow’ supply shock revealing an immediate drop in production as well as a ‘news’ shock associated with unanticipated shifts in future oil production. In this paper, I simultaneously identify both kinds of supply shocks allowing me to assess their relative importance within one model. For this purpose, I develop a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model that is identified by external instruments (Proxy-FAVAR). The framework ensures that the identified shocks are orthogonal to each other while also using a rich information set and a credible identification scheme. My results suggest that these shocks have substantially distinguishable effects: While news shocks clearly dominate the reaction of the oil price, flow supply surprises have more pronounced effects on many macroeconomic indicators and financial variables. |
| Keywords: | Oil market, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR), Identification via External Instruments, Bayesian Inference |
| JEL: | C32 C36 C38 Q43 |
| Date: | 2019–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:knz:dpteco:1906&r=all |
| By: | Beomsoo Kim (Department of Economics, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Yang Zhao (Department of Economics, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea) |
| Abstract: | The Chinese government passed the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (APPCAP) in 2013 to improve air quality. Subsequently, local governments implemented their own action plans following APPCAP in different time. We use difference-in-differences model to evaluate the impact of the APPCAP on health outcomes. Unlike the literature focusing on mortality, we measure health outcomes based on air-pollution-related chronic conditions, respiratory diseases, and circulatory system diseases based on the medical literature. The China Family Panel Studies (CFPS 2012, 2014, 2016), a representative survey of China, collects detailed information on doctor-diagnosed chronic diseases over the last 6 months. We found that the APPCAP reduced respiratory diseases and circulatory system diseases by 23 percent and 20 percent respectively for all adults. The effects vary across subsets of the population. The low-income strata and old people benefitted most from the APPCAP regarding respiratory diseases. Furthermore, females and old people received large benefits from the APPCAP for circulatory system diseases. |
| Keywords: | assortative, random, auction, subscription, revenue maximization, complementarity |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iek:wpaper:1904&r=all |
| By: | Charles Mason (University of Wyoming) |
| Abstract: | I model International climate agreements among asymmetric countries, each of whom must select a profile of CO2 emissions over time. Predictions from this model imply larger reductions by "large" countries, but larger proportional reductions by "small" countries. I then analyze experimental data that sheds light on this issue. In contrast to the theoretical predictions, I find that smaller countries do not reduce emissions proportionately to their Nash level, and so the burden falls mostly on larger countries. Moreover, combined emissions are indistinguishable from the one-shot Nash emissions. This pessimistic outcome extends the commonly-found result in the literature that negotiations in similar repeated games (but with symmetric players) generally do not offer much hope for meaningful agreements, unless the effects are modest. One possible explanation for this pattern of results is inequality aversion. |
| Keywords: | Climate Negotiations, Repeated Game, Experiments |
| JEL: | D8 L15 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2019.22&r=all |
| By: | Andreas A. Papandreou (National and Kapodistrian University of Athens) |
| Abstract: | There has been a burgeoning interest and literature on the risks associated with stranded assets. This paper aims to present an overview of this literature with a focus on the risks to the financial system associated with stranded assets and why these risks need to be a concern to central banks. It considers various definitions of stranded assets and its expanding scope while focusing more narrowly on climate-related risks and how these affect the financial system. Two main channels of climate-related risks are discussed in depth: risks of physical impacts from climate change and risks associated with the transition to a low-carbon economy. Reasons why the financial system may inadequately account for these risks are presented along with corrective policies on the part of investors and central banks. The paper also considers the special challenges and threats to financial stability associated with the historically unique sustainability transition needed to achieve the targets set by the Paris Agreement. |
| Keywords: | stranded assets; climate change;financial stability |
| JEL: | G2 Q54 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bog:wpaper:272&r=all |
| By: | Zongxi Li; A. Max Reppen; Ronnie Sircar |
| Abstract: | We propose a mean field game model to study the question of how centralization of reward and computational power occur in the Bitcoin-like cryptocurrencies. Miners compete against each other for mining rewards by increasing their computational power. This leads to a novel mean field game of jump intensity control, which we solve explicitly for miners maximizing exponential utility, and handle numerically in the case of miners with power utilities. We show that the heterogeneity of their initial wealth distribution leads to greater imbalance of the reward distribution, or a "rich get richer" effect. This concentration phenomenon is aggravated by a higher bitcoin price, and reduced by competition. Additionally, an advanced miner with cost advantages such as access to cheaper electricity, contributes a significant amount of computational power in equilibrium. Hence, cost efficiency can also result in the type of centralization seen among miners of cryptocurrencies. |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1912.01952&r=all |
| By: | Vita, Gibran; Ivanova, Diana; Dumitru, Adina; Mira, Ricardo García; Carrus, Giuseppe; Stadler, Konstantin; Krause, Karen; Wood, Richard; Hertwich, Edgar (Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | Scientists and policymakers recognize the need to address consumption and lifestyles in order to reconcile environmental and development agendas. Sustainability-oriented grassroots initiatives emerge bottom-up to create opportunities for sustainable lifestyles; yet no prior assessment has ascertained the efficacy of their members to reduce carbon footprints (CF) and enhance well-being. We compare the CF of non-members and members of grassroots initiatives in the domains of food, clothing, housing and transport. We further compare the groups by testing the influence of socio-economic variables that are typically associated with both footprint and well-being. Here we show that grassroots initiative members have 16% lower total carbon footprint, and 43% and 86% lower carbon footprints for food and clothing respectively, compared to their “non-member” regional sociodemographic counterparts. We find a higher adoption of some energy-saving behaviors for initiative members such as greater active travel distance and lower indoor temperatures in the winter, yet no significant differences in the CF of housing and transport. Interestingly, increases in income are not associated with increases in the total CF of members, while the influence of income is confirmed for the CF of the total sample. Instead, factors such as age, household size, and gender better explain the variation in the domain-specific CFs of initiative members. Finally, members show higher life satisfaction compared to non-members and are 11–13% more likely to evaluate their life positively. Our results suggest that initiative members uncover lifestyle features that not only enable lower emissions, but also reconcile emissions with income and well-being. |
| Date: | 2019–10–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3at5z&r=all |
| By: | Aminu, Alarudeen; Raifu, Isiaka Akande |
| Abstract: | The incessant fiscal deficit being experienced in different countries across the world has raised concerns about the ability of government to properly manage its revenues and expenditures. This has necessitated a flurry of studies on the relationship between government revenues and government expenditures over time. However, empirical evidence appears to be mixed, even within a country, depending on the methodological approaches adopted by each researcher. In the light of this, this study examines the asymmetric causality and cointegration between revenues and expenditures using aggregated and disaggregated data. The results of linear causality tests of Granger (1969) and Toda-Yamamoto (1995) support fiscal synchronisation hypothesis while those of nonlinear causality test of Diks and Panchenko (2006) support revenue-spending hypothesis. The results further show the existence of asymmetric cointegration between revenues and expenditures in the short-run and the long-run. The final results obtained from the decomposition of revenues into the positive and negative components show that positive change in revenues has a positive effect on expenditures and vice versa for a negative change in revenues. Based on these findings, the panacea proposed to over-reliance in revenues, particularly oil revenues as a determinant of government expenditures, is the proper management of oil revenues and other sources of revenues. The government would also need to diversify the economy so that more revenues could be available to it from other sources to finance its expenditures. |
| Keywords: | Government Revenues, Government Expenditures, Asymmetries, Causality, Cointegration |
| JEL: | C20 C50 H27 |
| Date: | 2018–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:97880&r=all |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé/Cameroon); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | This study assesses whether improving governance standards affects environmental quality in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 2000-2012. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments. Bundled and unbundled governance dynamics are used notably: (i) political governance (consisting of political stability and “voice & accountability”); (ii) economic governance (entailing government effectiveness and regulation quality), (iii) institutional governance (represented by the rule of law and corruption-control) and (iv) general governance (encompassing political, economic and institutional governance dynamics). The following hypotheses are tested: (i) Hypothesis 1 (Improving political governance is negatively related to CO2 emissions); (ii) Hypothesis 2 (Increasing economic governance is negatively related to CO2 emissions) and (iii) Hypothesis 3 (Enhancing institutional governance is negatively related to CO2 emissions. Results of the tested hypotheses show that: the validity of Hypothesis 3 cannot be determined based on the results; Hypothesis 2 is not valid while Hypothesis 1 is partially not valid. The main policy implication is that governance standards need to be further improved in order for government quality to generate the expected unfavorable effects on CO2 emissions. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions; Governance; Economic development; Sustainable development; Africa |
| JEL: | C52 O38 O40 O55 P37 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:agd:wpaper:19/090&r=all |
| By: | Margaryan, Shushanik |
| Abstract: | Air pollution has a major detrimental impact on population health but little is known about the effectiveness of policy measures targeting pollution. I exploit the staggered implementation of low emission zones in large cities in Germany as a nat-ural experiment to asses their health impact. Using outpatient and inpatient health care data, I demonstrate that low emission zones reduce the number of patients with cardiovascular diagnoses by 2-3 percent. This effect is particularly pronounced for the elderly above 65. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hcherp:201920&r=all |
| By: | Reiche, Colleen PhD; Goyal, Rohit; Cohen, Adam; Serrao, Jacqueline; Kimmel, Shawn PhD; Fernando, Chris; Shaheen, Susan PhD |
| Abstract: | The Booz Allen Team explored market size and potential barriers to Urban Air Mobility (UAM) by focusing on three potential markets – Airport Shuttle, Air Taxi, and Air Ambulance. We found that the Airport Shuttle and Air Taxi markets are viable, with a significant total available market value in the U.S. of $500 billion, for a fully unconstrained scenario. In this unconstrained best-case scenario, passengers would have the ability to access and fly a UAM at any time, from any location to any destination, without being hindered by constraints such as weather, infrastructure, or traffic volume. Significant legal and regulatory, weather, certification, public perception, and infrastructure constraints exist, which reduce the market potential for these applications to only about 0.5% of the total available market, or $2.5 billion, in the near term. However, we determined that these constraints can be addressed through ongoing intra-governmental partnerships, government and industry collaboration, strong industry commitment, and existing legal and regulatory enablers. We found that the Air Ambulance market is not a viable market if served by electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles due to technology constraints but may potentially be viable if a hybrid VTOL aircraft are utilized. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–11–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt0fz0x1s2&r=all |
| By: | Panle Jia Barwick; Shanjun Li; Liguo Lin; Eric Zou |
| Abstract: | During 2013-2014, China launched a nation-wide real-time air quality monitoring and disclosure program, a watershed moment in the history of its environmental regulations. We present the first empirical analysis of this natural experiment by exploiting its staggered introduction across cities. The program has transformed the landscape of China's environmental protection, substantially expanded public access to pollution information, and dramatically increased households' awareness about pollution issues. These transformations, in turn, triggered a cascade of behavioral changes in household activities such as online searches, day-to-day shopping, and housing demand when pollution was elevated. As a result, air pollution's mortality cost was reduced by nearly 7% post the program. A conservative estimate of the annual benefit is RMB 130 billion, which is at least one order of magnitude larger than the cost of the program and the associated avoidance behavior. Our findings highlight considerable benefits from improving access to pollution information in developing countries, many of which are experiencing the world's worst air pollution but do not systematically collect or disseminate pollution information. |
| JEL: | D80 I10 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26541&r=all |
| By: | Lisa Ryan (University College, Dublin); Ivan Petrov (University College, Dublin); Andrew Kelly (EnvEcon Decision Support); Yulu Guo (University College, Dublin); Sarah La Monaca (Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the results of an ex post evaluation of the impacts of a vehicle tax reform in Ireland, by carrying out a full social cost benefit analysis of a vehicle tax reform that began in Ireland in 2008 and shows that whilst successful in improving the fuel economy of new passenger cars, it may also have caused unintended effects, such as an increased proliferation of diesel vehicles in the passenger car fleet. These outcomes have mitigated the overall benefits. In addition to quantifying the scale of the various effects and outcomes, this paper clearly demonstrates the importance of broad scope policy design. |
| Keywords: | benefit-cost analysis, economic policy instruments, environmental economics, environmental tax reform, vehicle taxation |
| JEL: | D61 H23 Q51 Q53 R48 |
| Date: | 2019–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:153-en&r=all |