nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2019‒12‒23
thirty papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Coal regions in transition: the RHOMOLO-IO indirect jobs estimates By Giovanni Mandras; Andrea Conte; Simone Salotti
  2. Synergistic Value in Vertically Integrated Power-to-Gas Energy Systems By Gunther Glenk; Stefan J. Reichelstein
  3. Cost Pass-through in the British Wholesale Electricity Market: Implications of Brexit and the ETS reform By Guo, B.; Castagneto Gissey, G.
  4. Understanding the Distributional Impacts of Vehicle Policy: Who Buys New and Used Electric Vehicles? By Muehlegger, Erich; Rapson, David
  5. Determinants of investments in solar photovoltaic: Do oil prices really matter? By Valérie Mignon; Margaux Escoffier; Emmanuel Hache; Anthony Paris
  6. Energy Efficiency in Kerala By Pillai N., Vijayamohanan; AM, Narayanan
  7. Towards energy efficiency: case of Morocco By Lahcen El Iysaouy; Najiba El Idrissi; Manuela Tvaronavičienė; Mhammed Lahbabi; Abdelmajid Oumnad
  8. Solar Rebound - The Unintended Consequences of Subsidies By Nicolas Boccard; Axel Gautier;
  9. Characterising the water-energy-food nexus in Kuwait and the Gulf region By Siderius, Christian; Conway, Declan; Yassine, Mohamed; Murken, Lisa; Lostis, Pierre-Louis
  10. An integrated approach to the Paris climate Agreement: The role of regions and cities By Tadashi Matsumoto; Dorothée Allain-Dupré; Jonathan Crook; Alexis Robert
  11. Dynamics of technological innovation, energy consumption, energy price and economic growth in Denmark By Murad, Wahid; Alam, Md. Mahmudul; Noman, Abu Hanifa Md.; OZTURK, Ilhan
  12. Regularized Quantile Regression Averaging for probabilistic electricity price forecasting By Bartosz Uniejewski; Rafal Weron
  13. Oil Price Shocks and Unemployment Rate: New Evidence from the MENA Region By Iman Cheratian; Mohammad Reza Farzanegan; Saleh Goltabar
  14. Colombia; Technical Assistance Report-Reforming Energy Pricing By International Monetary Fund
  15. Financial Development and Energy Consumption Nexus in Malaysia: A Multivariate Time Series Analysis By Islam, Faridul; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Ahmed, Ashraf U.; Alam, Md. Mahmudul
  16. A Dynamic Analysis of Climate Change Mitigation with Endogenous Number of Contributors: Loose vs Tight Cooperation By Colombo, Luca; Labrecciosa, Paola; Long, Ngo Van
  17. Food for fuel: The effect of the US biofuel mandate on poverty in India By Ujjayant Chakravorty; Marie-Hélène Hubert; Beyza Ural Marchand
  18. Examining risk and return profiles of renewable energy investment in developing countries: The Case of the Philippines By Saculsan, Phoebe; Kanamura, Takashi
  19. The role of glacier retreat for Swiss hydropower production By Schaefli, Bettina; Manso, Pedro; Fischer, Mauro; Huss, Matthias; Farinotti, Daniel
  20. Public R&D and green knowledge diffusion:\r\nEvidence from patent citation data By Gianluca ORSATTI
  21. Does Electrification Cause Industrial Development? Grid Expansion and Firm Turnover in Indonesia By Dana Kassem
  22. Forecasting Regional Long-Run Energy Demand: A Functional Coefficient Panel Approach By Yoosoon Chang; Yongok Choi; Chang Sik Kim; J. Isaac Miller; Joon Y. Park
  23. Growth of oil/gas sectors and non oil/gas trade: The impact on labor-force participation rates in Indonesia By Sessu, Andi; Jamali, Hisnol
  24. User Perceptions of Safety and Security: A Framework for a Transition to Electric-Shared-Automated Vehicles By Kurani, Kenneth S.
  25. An empirical study on income and energy consumption in Bangladesh By Uddin, Gazi Salah; Alam, Md. Mahmudul; Murad, Wahid
  26. Greentech homophily and path dependence in a large patent citation network By Nomaler, Onder; Verspagen, Bart
  27. The fuel-food price nexus and its potential effects on food pricing in Ghana By Jarawura, Albertina K.; Amikuzuno, Joseph; Gershon-Ansah, Isaac
  28. Climate Change Awareness in Asia: An Assessment of the Climate Asia Blog By Shahriar, Shawon Muhammad; Alam, Md. Mahmudul
  29. Drivers of domestic biogas plant installations on farms in Kenya? A spatial analysis By Mailu, Stephen; Kinusu, Kevin; Muhammad, Lutta
  30. Digital Transformation in Transport, Construction, Energy, Government and Public Administration By BALDINI Gianmarco; BARBONI Marcello; BONO Flavio; DELIPETREV Blagoj; DUCH BROWN Nestor; FERNANDEZ MACIAS Enrique; GKOUMAS Konstantinos; JOOSSENS Elisabeth; KALPAKA Anna; NEPELSKI Daniel; NUNES DE LIMA Maria; PAGANO Andrea; PRETTICO Giuseppe; SANCHEZ MARTIN Jose Ignacio; SOBOLEWSKI Maciej; TRIAILLE Jean Paul; TSAKALIDIS Anastasios; URZI BRANCATI Maria Cesira

  1. By: Giovanni Mandras (European Commission - JRC); Andrea Conte (European Commission - JRC); Simone Salotti (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: Coal accounts for nearly a quarter of the total electricity production in the EU and provides jobs to around 240,000 people in mines and power plants. The European Commission is working in order to ensure a smooth transition to cleaner forms of energy production and to implement innovative technologies such as carbon capture and storage to meet the commitment to reduce CO2 emissions by at least 40% by 2030. There are currently around 200 coal-fired power plants in more than 100 NUTS-2 EU regions and over 120 mines in 41 regions employing almost 240,000 workers in total. In 2017, the Platform for Coal Regions in Transition was launched to minimise the economic and social impact of decarbonisation. Reliable data are key for the management of the transition and estimates of the number of jobs indirectly related to coal activities are needed. This Policy Insight presents the indirect jobs estimated using the input-output (IO) data of the RHOMOLO-IO modelling framework. The estimates suggest that 215,000 additional jobs can be potentially affected by the shift away from coal towards a low-carbon economy.
    Keywords: region, growth, rhomolo, indirect jobs, coal, input-output analysis
    JEL: C67 C82
    Date: 2019–12
  2. By: Gunther Glenk; Stefan J. Reichelstein
    Abstract: This paper examines the value that can potentially be created by a vertically integrating energy system. Integration entails operational gains that must be traded off against the requisite cost of capacity investments. In the context of our model, the operational gains are subject to inherent volatility in both the price and the output of the intermediate product transferred within the vertically integrated structure. Our model framework provides necessary and sufficient conditions for the value (NPV) of an integrated system to exceed the sum of two optimized subsystems on their own. We then calibrate the model in Germany and Texas for systems that combine wind energy with Power-to-Gas (PtG) facilities which produce carbon-free hydrogen. Depending on the prices attainable for hydrogen in different market segments, we find that a synergistic investment value emerges in certain settings. In the context of Texas, for instance, neither electricity generation from wind power nor hydrogen production from PtG is profitable on its own in the current market environment. Yet, provided both subsystems are sized optimally in relative terms, the attendant operational gains from vertical integration more than compensate for the stand-alone losses of the two subsystems.
    Keywords: operational volatility, vertical integration, renewable energy, power-to-gas
    Date: 2019
  3. By: Guo, B.; Castagneto Gissey, G.
    Abstract: This Cost pass-through rates give a useful perspective of market competition. This paper studies how generation costs are passed through to electricity wholesale prices in Great Britain, both theoretically and empirically, between 2015 and 2018. Our empirical results fail to reject the null of 100% pass-through rates for gas prices, carbon prices, and exchange rates, indicating a competitive GB wholesale electricity market. We observe higher pass-through rates in peak compared to off-peak periods, and argue this results from generators bidding at a lower rate during off-peak periods and supplying at minimum load to avoid the cost of shutting down and starting up. We extend the analysis by assessing generators’ bidding behaviour. The study also considers how two key events occurred during the examined period – the 2016 Brexit referendum, and major reformation of the EU Emission Trading System – have affected electricity costs to a typical domestic household, showing they have increased average annual bills by £41 p.a., constituting a 7% rise.
    Keywords: Electricity market, Cost pass-through, Competition, Carbon price, VECM
    JEL: L13 Q48 D41 H23 C32
    Date: 2019–12–05
  4. By: Muehlegger, Erich; Rapson, David
    Abstract: Policy makers consider electric vehicles (EVs) an important policy lever to reduce urban air pollution, lower carbon emissions, and reduce overall petroleum consumption. The need to understand purchase patterns for EVs is especially important in light of the bold policy targets set for increasing EV penetration or phasing out internal combustion engines (ICEs) entirely in countries around the world and in California. This policy brief summarizes findings from the project which analyzed data on every EV, including plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and battery electric vehicle (BEV), purchased in California from 2011 to 2015 and random samples of comparable conventional and hybrid vehicles. It examined the proliferation of EVs during a period in which the market has matured to include new technologies, a growing secondary market has evolved, and a suite of policies has been put in place to promote switching away from gasoline-powered cars. Researchers analyzed the data to answer two questions. First, is the conventional wisdom, which suggests that EV adoption is more common among high-income households and less common among minority groups, reflected in purchase data? Second, do two plausible barriers impede low-income and minority car buyers’ adoption of EVs: price discrimination against groups traditionally unlikely to purchase EVs and availability of EVs at dealerships near low-income or minority communities. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Automobile dealers, Consumer behavior, Electric vehicles, Market assessment, Plug-in hybrid vehicles, Travel behavior, Used cars, Used vehicle industry
    Date: 2019–11–01
  5. By: Valérie Mignon; Margaux Escoffier; Emmanuel Hache; Anthony Paris
    Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants of solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the electricity mix for a panel of OECD and BRICS countries from 1997 to 2016 by paying particular attention to the impact of oil market conditions. Relying on a nonlinear, regime-switching specification, we show that rising oil prices stimulate PV deployment only if their growth rate is important, above 6.7%. Although we find that various other determinants matter—with the influence of some of them depending on the situation on the oil market—public policies play a crucial role. In particular, our findings show that feed-in-tariffs should be encouraged to ensure a continuous fight against climate change, whatever the dynamics followed by oil prices.
    Keywords: Solar photovoltaic; Renewables deployment; Oil prices; Panel smooth transition regression
    JEL: Q4 Q42 C23 C24
    Date: 2019
  6. By: Pillai N., Vijayamohanan; AM, Narayanan
    Abstract: One positive impact of the 1973 oil crises has been the concerted effort across the world to reduce energy consumption through energy use efficiency improvements. Improving energy efficiency ensures the objective of conserving energy and thus promoting sustainable development. Recognition of this fact has now appeared in terms of including the aim of improving efficiency as an important component of electrical energy policy in all the countries across the globe. Conserving electrical energy through energy efficiency measures can meet the high challenge of increasing energy demands at reasonable costs in a sustainable manner. Moreover, improving energy efficiency also has the potential of reducing the environmental and health threats associated with the use of hydrocarbons and of encouraging clean energy systems. Improving energy efficiency is expected to reduce energy demand through its rational use in the end-use devices; every unit of energy input consumed will bring in greater amount of useful energy output. Such improvements can manage energy demand in better ways and contribute highly to a better environment. The present study is a documentation of the current pattern and trend of energy efficiency in the global, Indian and Kerala scenarios.
    Keywords: Energy efficiency, conservation, demand management, carbon emission, Kerala, India
    JEL: Q40 Q43 Q48
    Date: 2019–11
  7. By: Lahcen El Iysaouy (University of Mohammed V); Najiba El Idrissi (USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah); Manuela Tvaronavičienė (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University); Mhammed Lahbabi (USMBA - Université Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah); Abdelmajid Oumnad (University of Mohammed V)
    Abstract: A major challenge for humanity in the twenty-first century is to combine energy with respect for the environment. During the Rio Earth Summit (2012) the issue of sustainable development was clearly demonstrated. One of the major battles this century for the planet's survival is to include energy efficiency as an international policy priority in order to achieve a significant decrease in greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we have presented the current state and outlook of energy efficiency in the transport, residential and industrial sectors, as well as its policy for each sector in Morocco. New strategies implemented by the government for sustainable development were reviewed and discussed. Through these strategies, the shift to energy efficiency is at the forefront of national policy implications for energy security and a low-carbon economy.
    Keywords: Morocco,ggreenhouse gases,energy consumption,energy efficiency,low-carbon,energy policy
    Date: 2019–09–30
  8. By: Nicolas Boccard; Axel Gautier;
    Abstract: Many jurisdictions use net metering to record the power exchange between solar photovoltaic panels and the grid, thus valuing home production at the electricity retail rate. However, if over the billing period, production exceeds consumption, the surplus remains freely available for consumption. In Wallonia (Belgium), this system was combined with generous subsidies for solar panels that encouraged households to set-up large installations, possibly exceeding their consumption needs. In this context, we test for a possible rebound effect. Based on a large sample of residential PV installations, we observe that a large proportion of households oversized their installation to benefit from the subsidies and, later ended-up consuming most of their excess production. The effect is econometrically highly significant. There are thus evidence of a strong increase in energy consumption by residential PV owners, that runs counter the original policy design.
    Keywords: rebound effect, solar PV, net metering
    JEL: C51 Q48 Q58 Q41 Q42
    Date: 2019
  9. By: Siderius, Christian; Conway, Declan; Yassine, Mohamed; Murken, Lisa; Lostis, Pierre-Louis
    Abstract: Economic challenges as a result of the recent fluctuations in oil prices have exposed unprecedented risks to Kuwait and the other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, including securing long-term sustainable access to and use of water and food resources. The strong interlinkages between the availability of water, energy, and food resources have been termed the Water–Energy–Food (WEF) nexus. Here, we characterise the nexus for Kuwait across different spatial scales, reviewing available literature and focussing on empirical data from the most widely used global and regional databases on water, energy and food. While there are certainly issues of water scarcity, trade-offs between sectors at the domestic level are limited. At the international scale, high oil export revenues shield Kuwait from the immediate impacts of higher prices in food imports, but they expose Kuwait to water scarcity and food production risks in other countries. At the global scale, we consider climate change mitigation linkages with Kuwait’s WEF nexus. Whilst there is great uncertainty about future international climate policy and its implications for oil and gas revenues in Kuwait, our analysis illustrates how implementation of policy measures to account for the social costs of carbon could be significant.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2019–12
  10. By: Tadashi Matsumoto; Dorothée Allain-Dupré; Jonathan Crook; Alexis Robert
    Abstract: Following the historic 2015 Paris Agreement aiming to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, 165 Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, representing 192 countries, have been submitted. Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) detail each Party’s efforts to reduce domestic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change. This paper, recognising the role of cities and regions in implementing the Paris Agreement, highlights the need for an integrated approach in implementing NDCs and long-term low GHG emission development strategies (LT-LEDS) and attempts to present key policy options for such an approach. First, the paper identifies the national and subnational co-ordination mechanisms in current NDCs, LT-LEDS and other subnational climate strategies and argues that the current processes of developing and implementing NDCs and LT-LEDS provide a unique opportunity for national governments to integrate innovative subnational climate action. The paper then assesses the potential for co-ordination of national, regional and local climate mitigation investment through the lens of the OECD Recommendation on Effective Public Investment Across Levels of Government adopted in 2014.
    Keywords: cities, climate change, infrastructure, long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies (LT-LEDS), mitigation, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), Paris Agreement, public investment
    JEL: H54 Q01 Q54 Q56 R11 R58
    Date: 2019–12–17
  11. By: Murad, Wahid; Alam, Md. Mahmudul (Universiti Utara Malaysia); Noman, Abu Hanifa Md.; OZTURK, Ilhan
    Abstract: This study investigates the dynamic relationships between technological innovation, consumption of energy, energy price and economic growth in Denmark during the period from 1970 until 2012, using multivariate setting to examine time-series data. The analysis employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration in order to examine both the short and long run dynamics among the variables. Furthermore, the study uses the Granger procedure within the VAR framework to identify causality among the variables. The model used in this study is found to be sound, a diagnosis of the reliability of the model reached by testing normality, functional form, serial correlation, and heteroscedasticity, with stability of the model tested using a cumulative sum and cumulative sum square test, based on recursive regression residuals. The ARDL approach to cointegration reveals that real GDP growth positively influences energy consumption as well as significantly in both the short run and long run, while energy prices and technological innovation influence energy consumption negatively and significantly. The results ascertain that energy consumption and economic growth are independent of each other, and thus they support a neutral hypothesis for Denmark. Besides, both the technological innovation and energy prices are found to be Granger cause energy consumption. Therefore, the study suggests that Denmark should adopt conservative energy policy using technological innovation and energy prices as instruments to achieve energy security and protect the environment from pollution.
    Date: 2019–02–23
  12. By: Bartosz Uniejewski; Rafal Weron
    Abstract: Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA) has sparked interest in the electricity price forecasting community after its unprecedented success in the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014, where the top two winning teams in the price track used variants of QRA. However, recent studies have reported the method's vulnerability to low quality predictors when the set of regressors is larger than just a few. To address this issue, we consider a regularized variant of QRA, which utilizes the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to automatically select the relevant regressors. We evaluate the introduced technique – dubbed LASSO QRA or LQRA for short – using datasets from the Polish and Nordic power markets, a set of 25 point forecasts obtained for calibration windows of different lengths and 20 different values of the regularization parameter. By comparing against nearly 30 benchmarks, we provide evidence for its superior predictive performance in terms of the Kupiec test, the pinball score and the test for conditional predictive accuracy.
    Keywords: Electricity price forecasting; Probabilistic forecast; Quantile Regression Averaging; LASSO; Kupiec test; Pinball score; Conditional predictive accuracy
    JEL: C22 C32 C51 C52 C53 Q41 Q47
    Date: 2019–11–16
  13. By: Iman Cheratian (Economics Research Group, Academic Center for Education, Culture, and Research (ACECR), Tarbiat Modares University (TMU)); Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (Philipps-Universitaet Marburg); Saleh Goltabar (Economics Research Group, Academic Center for Education, Culture, and Research (ACECR), Tarbiat Modares University (TMU))
    Abstract: We examine the effects of oil price shocks on unemployment rates in the MENA oil-exporting and oil-importing countries over the period 1991-2017. Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, the results show that in the short-run, the positive changes of oil prices only exert a positive (increasing) impact on the unemployment rate for oil-exporting countries. However, in the long-run, positive changes in oil prices have a significant increasing effect on the unemployment rate for oil-exporting and oil-importing countries in the MENA region. We also find that the negative changes in oil prices do not show a significant effect on the unemployment rate. Our findings are in line with predictions of the Dutch disease hypothesis.
    Keywords: Oil price shocks, Unemployment rate, MENA region, NARDL
    JEL: Q43 E24
    Date: 2019
  14. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: Energy Subsidy Reform is a key pillar of Colombia’s national development plan. Rising fiscal challenges in Colombia—which have been exacerbated by the adjustment costs associated with recent large migration flows from Venezuela—can risk derailing the government from their commitment to meet both its headline deficit target of 2.4 percent in 2019 and its structural deficit target by 2022, under the existing fiscal rule. The government is committed to embark on a reform strategy that aims at safeguarding the fiscal framework. Energy subsidy reform is one element of the government’s strategy to address fiscal pressures. It is also consistent with efforts to enhance spending efficiency and free up additional fiscal resources for development needs, in line with the recommendations made by the expert commission on spending.
    Keywords: Producer prices;Oil prices;Social safety nets;Energy prices;Purchasing power;ISCR,CR,fuel product,CREG,reference price,decile,external stakeholders
    Date: 2019–11–18
  15. By: Islam, Faridul; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Ahmed, Ashraf U.; Alam, Md. Mahmudul (Universiti Utara Malaysia)
    Abstract: Despite a bourgeoning literature on the existence of a long-run relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, the findings have failed to establish clearly the direction of causation. A growing economy needs more energy, which is exacerbated by growing population. Evidence suggests that financial development can reduce overall energy consumption by achieving energy efficiency. Economic growth and energy consumption in Malaysia have been rising in tandem over the past several years. The three public policy objectives of Malaysia are: economic progress, population growth and financial development. It is of interest to the policymakers to understand the dynamic interrelation among the stated objectives. The paper implements Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration to examine the existence of a long-run relationship among the series: energy consumption, population, aggregate production, and financial development for Malaysia; and tests for Granger causality within the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results suggest that energy consumption is influenced by economic growth and financial development, both in the short and the long-run, but the population-energy relation holds only in the long run. The findings have important policy implications for balancing economic growth vis-à-vis energy consumption for Malaysia, as well as other emerging nations.
    Date: 2019–02–24
  16. By: Colombo, Luca; Labrecciosa, Paola; Long, Ngo Van
    Abstract: We propose a dynamic model of climate change abatement in which the number of contributors is endogenous and thus may differ between two modes of cooperation, namely, loose vs tight. In the tight mode of cooperation, each member is prescribed a specific target, whereas in the loose one, members choose their own abatement levels as Nash players. Conditions exist such that the incentive to free ride is lower and the number of contributors is higher in the loose cooperation framework, and this can lead to higher welfare, both in the steady state and along the transition path. Our theoretical results suggest that the loose coalition mode, such reflected in the spirit of the Paris International COP21 Conference on Climate Change, by attracting more participants, could turn out to be more effective in reducing emissions than the Kyoto Protocol.
    Keywords: differential games, pollution abatement, climate change, mode of cooperation
    JEL: Q2 Q52 C73
    Date: 2019–12
  17. By: Ujjayant Chakravorty (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marie-Hélène Hubert (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Beyza Ural Marchand (Department of Economics - University of Alberta)
    Abstract: More than 40% of US grain is used for energy due to the Renewable Fuel Mandate (RFS). There are no studies of the global distributional consequences of this purely domestic policy. Using micro-level survey data, we trace the effect of the RFS on world food prices and their impact on household level consumption and wage incomes in India. We first develop a partial equilibrium model to estimate the effect of the RFS on the price of selected food commodities-rice, wheat, corn, sugar, and meat and dairy, which together provide almost 70% of Indian food calories. Our model predicts that world prices for these commodities rise by 8-16% due to the RFS. We estimate the price pass-through to domestic Indian prices and the effect of the price shock on household welfare through consumption and wage incomes. Poor rural households suffer significant welfare losses due to higher prices of consumption goods, which are regressive. However, they benefit from a rise in wage incomes, mainly because most of them are employed in agriculture. Urban households also bear the higher cost of food, but do not see a concomitant rise in wages because only a small fraction of them work in food-related industries. Welfare losses are greater among urban households. However, more poor people in India live in villages, so rural poverty impacts are larger in magnitude. We estimate that the mandate leads to about 25 million new poor: 21 million in rural and 4 million in the urban population.
    Keywords: household welfare,Biofuels,distributional effects,renewable fuel standard,poverty
    Date: 2019
  18. By: Saculsan, Phoebe; Kanamura, Takashi
    Abstract: This paper examines the risk and return profiles of energy companies with renewable energy (RE) investment in developing countries taking the Philippines as our country case study. First, we analyze the impact of the global RE project specific risk and country risk on RE projects using a simple capital asset pricing model (CAPM) by benchmarking stock returns of these companies to either the global S&P (S&PGCE) index or to the local Philippine Stocks Exchange (PSE) index. Our findings show that on short- and mid- to long term investment interval, a “pure” RE company, the Energy Development Corporation (EDC), is affected by both these risks examined, while those with partial investment in renewables are affected only on the short-term. Next, we calculated these companies’ abnormal returns by using the Jensen’s alpha. Results show that EDC's alpha values are positive on all short- and medium-to-long term investments and on both indices, suggesting that Philippine RE companies are possibly underestimated on both the global RE market and the Philippine stock market. Lastly, we examined the latest Feed-in Tariff (FIT) level by using the beta results of EDC and the FIT structure of solar PV. Results show that the FIT rate generates profit to both the global and local RE companies’ risk and returns from the investors’ perspective, but is higher than the desired FIT rate from the policymakers’ perspective. This paper aids in investment decision-making by showing that differences in investment timeframes and RE shares could impact investment outcomes in developing countries.
    Keywords: renewable energy investment; capital asset pricing model (CAPM); developing countries; Philippines
    JEL: G12 G15 Q20
    Date: 2019–12
  19. By: Schaefli, Bettina; Manso, Pedro; Fischer, Mauro; Huss, Matthias; Farinotti, Daniel
    Abstract: High elevation or high latitude hydropower production (HP) strongly relies on water resources that are influenced by glacier melt and are thus highly sensitive to climate warming. Despite of the wide-spread glacier retreat since the development of HP infrastructure in the 20th century, little quantitative information is available about the role of glacier mass loss for HP. We provide the first regional quantification for the share of Alpine hydropower production that directly relies on the waters released by glacier mass loss, i.e. on depletion of long-term ice storage that cannot be replenished by precipitation in the coming decades. Based on the case of Switzerland (which produces over 50% of its electricity from hydropower), we show that since 1980, 3.0% to 4.0% (1.0 to 1.4 TWh yr-1) of the country-scale hydropower production was directly provided by the net glacier mass loss and that this share is likely to reduce substantially by 2040-2060. For the period 2070-2090, a production reduction of about 1.0 TWh yr-1 is anticipated. The highlighted regional differences, both in terms of HP share from glacier mass loss and in terms of timing of production decline, emphasize the need for similar analyses in other Alpine or high latitude regions.
    Date: 2017–12–22
  20. By: Gianluca ORSATTI
    Abstract: The present paper investigates the relationship between public R&D and the diffusion of green knowledge. To do so, we exploit information contained in green patents filed at the European Patent Office from 1980 to 1984. The diffusion of green knowledge is measured by meaning of patent citations. The level of public R&D is instrumented through the policy reaction to the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear accident – that affected the level of public R&D in the energy generation domain – in a difference in differences setting. Results show that a 10% increase in public R&D increases by around 0.7% the number of citations to green patents. Moreover, increasing public R&D fosters the diffusion of green knowledge across traditional (non-green) domains and increases the average technological distance of inventions citing green patents. This evidence suggests that public R&D is a driver of green knowledge diffusion, accelerates the hybridization of traditional innovation processes and fosters technological diversification.
    Keywords: Public R&D, Green innovation, Knowledge diffusion, Patent citations, Environmental policy, Green R&D
    JEL: O30 O32 O33 O38 Q55
    Date: 2019
  21. By: Dana Kassem
    Abstract: I ask whether electrification causes industrial development. I combine newly digitized data from the Indonesian state electricity company with rich manufacturing census data. To understand when and how electrification can cause industrial development, I shed light on an important economic mechanism - firm turnover. In particular, I study the effect of the extensive margin of electrification (grid expansion) on the extensive margin of industrial development (firm entry and exit). To deal with endogenous grid placement, I build a hypothetical electric transmission grid based on colonial incumbent infrastructure and geographic cost factors. I find that electrification causes industrial development, represented by an increase in the number of manufacturing firms, manufacturing workers, and manufacturing output. Electrification increases firm entry rates, but also exit rates. Empirical tests show that electrification creates new industrial activity, as opposed to only reorganizing industrial activity across space. Higher turnover rates lead to higher average productivity and induce reallocation towards more productive firms in electrified areas. This is consistent with electrification lowering entry costs, increasing competition and forcing unproductive firms to exit more often. Without the possibility of entry or competitive effects of entry, the effects of electrification are likely to be smaller.
    JEL: D24 L60 O13 O14 Q41
    Date: 2019–07
  22. By: Yoosoon Chang (Department of Economics, Indiana University); Yongok Choi (School of Economics, Chung-Ang University); Chang Sik Kim (Department of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University); J. Isaac Miller (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia); Joon Y. Park (Department of Economics, Indiana University and Sungkyunkwan University)
    Abstract: Previous authors have pointed out that energy consumption changes both over time and nonlinearly with income level. Recent methodological advances using functional coefficients allow panel models to capture these features succinctly. In order to forecast a functional coefficient out-of-sample, we use functional principal components analysis (FPCA), reducing the problem of forecasting a surface to a much easier problem of forecasting a small number of smoothly varying time series. Using a panel of 180 countries with data since 1971, we forecast energy consumption to 2035 for Germany, Italy, the US, Brazil, China, and India.
    Keywords: functional coefficient panel model, functional principal component analysis, energy consumption
    JEL: C14 C23 C51 Q43
    Date: 2019–11–25
  23. By: Sessu, Andi; Jamali, Hisnol
    Abstract: Export trade balance, oil and non-oil imports, Indonesia is in an active state or economy to prosper, while the results of multiple regression analysis showed that the export of non oil/gas, non oil/gas import, oil and gas imports and economic growth positive effect on the labor force participation rate, which means every increased four variables also increased labor force participation rate, while oil and gas exports have negative effect means that any increased export of oil and gas resulting in a decline in labor force participation rates and significant effect of all the variables of the labor force participation rate in Indonesia. Multiple correlation coefficients obtained r = 0.998 shows the effect of variable export of non oil/gas, non oil/gas import, export of oil and gas, oil and gas imports, economic growth together very strong and the coefficient of determination together the five variables can be R = 0.996 shows the percentage contribution of influence together of 99% means that only 0.01% contribution of other variables influence the level of labor force participation in Indonesia. It can be concluded that the development of oil and gas trade and non-oil and gas in Indonesia still need cooperation between individual communities, private sector, civil society and government in an effort to increase trade in Indonesia, because it is very big influence on the labor force participation rate that could lower the unemployment rate and can automatically reducing poverty, because unemployment and poverty in Indonesia is still high when compared with some other countries in the world
    Date: 2018–01–03
  24. By: Kurani, Kenneth S.
    Abstract: The confluence of vehicle electrification, sharing and pooling, and automation alters petroleum-fueled, human-piloted, and privately-owned and operated vehicles for personal mobility in ways that raises such questions as, “Are such systems safe and secure?” and, “Who is being kept safe and secure from what (or whom)?” Answers are implied by filling in the “who” and “whom” of the second question: system, product, producer, road, and user. This white paper focuses on (actual and potential) users of systems of electrically-powered, shared, and automated vehicles (e-SAVs) as well as other road-users, e.g., pedestrians and cyclists. The role of user perceptions of safety and security are reviewed to create an initial framework to evaluate how they may affect who will initially use systems of e-SAVs for personal mobility and how safety and security will have to be addressed to foster sustained transitions. The paper will primarily be a resource for e-SAV user research, but will also inform system development, operation, and governance. This white paper offers an overarching framework grounded in the social theory of “risk society” and thus organizes past work that, typically, focuses on only one of the constituent technologies or on one dimension of safety or security, e.g., collision avoidance as a subset of road safety. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Social and Behavioral Sciences, Safety, security, risk society, electric, shared, pooled, autonomous, vehicle
    Date: 2019–12–01
  25. By: Uddin, Gazi Salah; Alam, Md. Mahmudul (Universiti Utara Malaysia); Murad, Wahid
    Abstract: This study investigates the inter-temporal causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Bangladesh during the period 1971-2007. This issue is of fundamental importance for the developing economy of Bangladesh. We use the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration tests to explore the dynamic relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Bangladesh. We apply newly developed methods based on simulations that are robust to the violation of statistical assumptions especially when the sample size is small as is the case in this paper. The interesting results of the paper are that unidirectional causality runs from energy consumption to economic growth in Bangladesh and then restrictions on the use of energy could lead to a reduction in economic growth. There is a convergence process in the long-run dynamics of energy use to real GDP so that any shock in energy adjusts with real GDP by 2-2.5 year. The growth hypothesis suggests that energy consumption plays an important role in economic growth in Bangladesh
    Date: 2019–02–23
  26. By: Nomaler, Onder (UNU-MERIT); Verspagen, Bart (UNU-MERIT, and SBE, Maastricht University)
    Abstract: We propose a method to identify the main technological trends in a very large (i.e., universal) patent citation network comprising all patented technologies. Our method builds on existing literature that implements a similar procedure, but for much smaller networks, each covering a truncated sub-network comprising only the patents of a selected technology field. The increase of the scale of the network that we analyse allows us to analyse so-called macro fields of technology (distinct technology fields related by a coherent overall goal), such as environmentally friendly technologies (Greentech). Our method extracts a so-called network of main paths (NMP). We analyse the NMP in terms of the distribution of Greentech in this network. For this purpose, we construct a number of theoretical benchmark models of trajectory formation. In these models, the ideas of homophily (Green patents citing Green patents) and path dependency (the impact of upstream Green patents in the network) play a large role. We show that a model taking into account both homophily and path dependence predicts well the number of Green patents on technological trajectories, and the number of clusters of Green patents on technological trajectories.
    Keywords: patent citations, citation networks, main path, technological change, green technology, climate change mitigation
    JEL: Q55 Q54 O31 O33 O34
    Date: 2019–12–17
  27. By: Jarawura, Albertina K.; Amikuzuno, Joseph; Gershon-Ansah, Isaac
    Keywords: Demand and Price Analysis, Crop Production/Industries
    Date: 2019–09
  28. By: Shahriar, Shawon Muhammad; Alam, Md. Mahmudul (Universiti Utara Malaysia)
    Abstract: Climate change refers to a significant and lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns in terms of change in average weather conditions or in the distribution of weather around the average conditions over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. Global warming, which refers to the rise in the average temperature of Earth’s atmosphere and oceans since the late 19th century, is one of the most visible impacts of climate change. Since the early 20th century, Earth’s mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.8 °C (1.4 °F), with about two-thirds of the increase occurring since 1980. Scientists are more than 90% certain that this warming of the climate system is primarily caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases produced by human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Climate model projections summarized in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicated that during the 21st century, the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 2.9 °C (2 to 5.2 °F) for their lowest emissions scenario and 2.4 to 6.4 °C (4.3 to 11.5 °F) for their highest
    Date: 2019–02–24
  29. By: Mailu, Stephen; Kinusu, Kevin; Muhammad, Lutta
    Keywords: Agricultural and Food Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2019–09
  30. By: BALDINI Gianmarco (European Commission - JRC); BARBONI Marcello (European Commission - JRC); BONO Flavio (European Commission - JRC); DELIPETREV Blagoj (European Commission - JRC); DUCH BROWN Nestor (European Commission - JRC); FERNANDEZ MACIAS Enrique (European Commission - JRC); GKOUMAS Konstantinos (European Commission - JRC); JOOSSENS Elisabeth (European Commission - JRC); KALPAKA Anna (European Commission - JRC); NEPELSKI Daniel (European Commission - JRC); NUNES DE LIMA Maria (European Commission - JRC); PAGANO Andrea (European Commission - JRC); PRETTICO Giuseppe (European Commission - JRC); SANCHEZ MARTIN Jose Ignacio (European Commission - JRC); SOBOLEWSKI Maciej (European Commission - JRC); TRIAILLE Jean Paul (European Commission - JRC); TSAKALIDIS Anastasios (European Commission - JRC); URZI BRANCATI Maria Cesira (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: This report provides an analysis of digital transformation (DT) in a selection of policy areas covering transport, construction, energy, and digital government and public administration. DT refers in the report to the profound changes that are taking place in all sectors of the economy and society as a result of the uptake and integration of digital technologies in every aspect of human life. Digital technologies are having increasing impacts on the way of living, of working, on communication, and on social interaction of a growing share of the population. DT is expected to be a strategic policy area for a number of years to come and there is an urgent need to be able to identify and address current and future challenges for the economy and society, evaluating impact and identifying areas requiring policy intervention. Because of the very wide range of interrelated domains to be considered when analysing DT, a multidisciplinary approach was adopted to produce this report, involving experts from different domains. For each of the four sectors that are covered, the report presents an overview of DT, DT enablers and barriers, its economic and social impacts, and concludes with the way forward for policy and future research.
    Keywords: Digital transformation, Construction, Transport, Energy, Digital Government
    Date: 2019–12

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