|
on Energy Economics |
| By: | Myers Jaffe, Amy |
| Abstract: | The emergence of natural gas (NG) as an abundant, inexpensive fuel in the United States has highlighted the possibility that it could play a significant role in the transition to low carbon fuels. It is often cited as a “bridge” to low carbon fuels in the transportation sector. Major corporations are already investing billions of dollars to build NG fueling infrastructure to expand its use in U.S. trucking fleets. In California, NG fueling infrastructure is expanding, especially in and around the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, and the use of NG-fueled medium- and heavy-duty fleets is currently on an upswing. The state is relying in part on the development and use of alternative fuels such as renewable natural gas (RNG) and hydrogen, which have low greenhouse gas and criteria pollutant emissions, to meet its climate change and air quality goals. This policy brief summarizes findings from the research project which examines how NG infrastructure can be economically and technologically synergistic for both NG and RNG in the near term, and for RNG and other renewables such as hydrogen in the long term. In particular, it examines optimum paths for developing infrastructure in the near term that will accommodate alternative fuels once they become available at the commercial scale. The original design of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) provides time for the development of advanced, near-zero technologies. The research considers the use of LCFS credits in its analysis. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Fuel cell vehicles, Hydrogen fuels, Natural gas, Natural gas buses, Natural gas distribution systems, Natural gas pipelines, Natural gas vehicles, Service stations |
| Date: | 2018–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt19s7v9df&r=all |
| By: | Kaushal , Kevin R. (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Rosendahl, Knut Einar (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Unilateral actions to reduce CO2 emissions can be costly and may lead to carbon leakage through relocation of emission-intensive and trade-exposed industries (EITE). This paper examines the welfare effects of introducing an emission offset mechanism for the EITE sector, where EITE producers may have to acquire more than one offset credit to balance one ETS allowance. The analytical results suggest that under certain conditions it is globally welfare improving for a single region to introduce such an offset mechanism. Numerical simulations in the context of the EU ETS and REDD+ credits support the analytical findings, and suggest that it is optimal for the EU to require EITE producers to acquire several REDD+ credits to offset one EU ETS allowance. |
| Keywords: | Carbon leakage; emission trading system; unilateral policy; REDD+ |
| JEL: | D61 F18 H23 Q54 |
| Date: | 2019–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nlsseb:2019_003&r=all |
| By: | Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqin Zhou |
| Abstract: | We study the efficacy of releases from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) within the context of fully specified models of the global oil market that explicitly allow for storage demand as well as unanticipated changes in the SPR. Using novel identifying strategies and evaluation methods, we examine seven questions. First, how much have exogenous shocks to the SPR contributed to the variability in the real price of oil? Second, how much would a one-time exogenous reduction in the SPR lower the real price of oil? Third, are exogenous SPR releases partially or fully offset by increases in private sector oil inventories and how does this response affect the transmission of SPR policy shocks? Fourth, how effective were actual SPR policy interventions, consisting of sequences of exogenous changes in the SPR, at lowering the real price of oil? Fifth, are there differences in the effectiveness of SPR emergency drawdowns and SPR exchanges? Sixth, how much did the creation and expansion of the SPR contribute to higher real oil prices? Finally, how much would selling half of the oil in the SPR, as recently proposed by the White House, lower the global price of oil (and hence the U.S. price of motor gasoline) and how much fiscal revenue would it generate. |
| Keywords: | SPR, crude oil, oil inventories, storage, expectations, policy intervention, fiscal policy |
| JEL: | Q38 Q43 E62 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7753&r=all |
| By: | Han, Xiao PhD; Ma, Rui PhD; Zhang, H. Michael PhD |
| Abstract: | Traffic signals, while serving an important function to coordinate vehicle movements through intersections, also cause frequent stops and delays, particularly when they are not properly timed. Such stops and delays contribute to significant amount of fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. The recent development of connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technology provides new opportunities to enable better control of vehicles and intersections, that in turn reduces fuel consumption and emissions. In this paper, we propose platoon-trajectory-optimization (PTO) to minimize the total fuel consumption of a CAV platoon through a signalized intersection. In this approach, all CAVs in one platoon are considered as a whole, that is, all other CAVs follow the trajectory of the leading one with a time delay and minimum safety gap, which is enabled by vehicle to vehicle communication. Moreover, the leading CAV in the platoon learns of the signal timing plan just after it enters the approach segment through vehicle to infrastructure communication. We compare our PTO control with the other two controls, in which the leading vehicle adopts the optimal trajectory (LTO) or drive with maximum speed (AT), respectively, and the other vehicles follow the leading vehicle with a simplified Gipps’ car-following model. Furthermore, we extend the controls into multiple platoons by considering the interactions between the two platoons. The numerical results demonstrate that PTO has better performance than LTO and AT, particularly when CAVs have enough space and travel time to smooth their trajectories. The reduction of travel time and fuel consumption can be as high as 40% and 30% on average, respectively, in the studied cases, which shows the great potential of CAV technology in reducing congestion and negative environmental impact of automobile transportation. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Connect vehicles, autonomous vehicles, traffic platooning, fuel consumption, vehicle trajectories, trajectory controld |
| Date: | 2019–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt00d6591g&r=all |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | This note offers three narratives about the future of coal based electricity generation in Vietnam. "Blazing up" corresponds to the power development plan 7 revised and updated as of March 2019. "Closed window" tells what we think would happen under pure market forces. "Coal peak" tells what could happen if the State continues to steer the electricity system into the energy transition, decisively and without imposing high costs to stakeholders. |
| Date: | 2019–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02263898&r=all |
| By: | Ambrose, Hanjiro; Pappas, Nicholas; Kendall, Alissa PhD |
| Abstract: | The California Air Resources Board is considering regulatory changes to require an increasing share of public transit buses to produce zero-emissions by 2040. This report attempts to identify and assess critical drivers of electric bus adoption costs, characterize uncertainty in forecasting agency transition costs, and provide an approach to support agencies’ assessment of strategic investments in new vehicle technologies. While current purchase costs for electric buses are 40% higher compared to conventional diesel or clean-natural gas buses, by 2030, electric buses are likely to become the most cost-effective option. Taking total cost of ownership into consideration, replacing a bus fleet by 2030 with a 100% electric fleet is estimated to decrease overall costs by $0.1 to $3.6B compared to replacing the current fleet. Results are likely to vary depending on agency size as small and rural agencies have orders of magnitude smaller fleets than the largest agencies and the estimates take into account current subsides for purchases electric buses. The report concludes that total costs of ownership for electric buses are likely to be lower than current fleets and that agencies need better tools to be able to evaluate integrated technology and systems planning, particularly as it relates to transit bus electrification. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Public transit, transit operating agencies, electric buses |
| Date: | 2017–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0fn8s2jh&r=all |
| By: | Popov, Vladimir |
| Abstract: | - Is industrial policy necessary for successful development or the market “knows” better, how to allocate resources? - If industrial policy is needed, how to select industries that need to be supported? - What are the appropriate tools / instruments to support particular industries? Eastern European countries in general did not have any explicit industrial policy, neither via tax concessions and/or subsidies, nor via under/overpricing the exchange rate. Many countries of former Soviet Union carried out large import substitution programs through regulation of domestic fuel and energy prices (directly and via export tax) that subsidized all energy consumers. They also provided subsidies to agricultural enterprises. China and Vietnam (and to some extent Uzbekistan) were carrying out export oriented industrial policy mostly via underpricing the exchange rate. The paper discusses pros and cons, achievements and failures of various models of industrial policy. It is argued that export oriented industrial policy via undervaluation of the exchange rate is the best possible option to promote export oriented catch up development based on export of manufactured goods. It is especially needed for resource rich countries (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) that are prone to Dutch disease. Assistance to domestic producers via keeping low domestic prices for fuel and energy also helps to stimulate growth, but at a price of very high energy intensity. Industrial policy that is not targeting particular industries (general support for education, research and development and infrastructure) may be reasonable for counties at a higher level of development. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, economic diversification, industrial policy, exchange rate policy |
| JEL: | O14 O25 O4 |
| Date: | 2019–07–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:95332&r=all |
| By: | Hilde C. Bjørnland; Frode Martin Nordvik; Maximilian Rohrer |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new results to the literature, showing that output flexibility in oil production depends on the extraction technology. In particular, constructing a novel well-level monthly production data set covering more than 16,000 crude oil wells in North Dakota, we find supply elasticity of shale wells to be positive and in the range of 0.3-0.9, depending on wells and firms characteristics. We find no such responses for conventional wells. We interpret the supply pattern of shale oil wells to be consistent with the Hotelling theory of optimal extraction. These results have far reaching implications for oil prices: as shale producers grow in size and importance, we should expect to see a stabilizing effect on prices. |
| Keywords: | Supply elasticity, well panel data, US shale oil boom, Hotelling theory |
| JEL: | C33 L71 Q31 Q40 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-56&r=all |
| By: | Jenn, Alan |
| Abstract: | Integrating electric vehicles (EVs) into vehicle fleets deployed by transportation network companies (TNCs; e.g., Uber and Lyft) is a particularly promising way to realize the benefits of vehicle electrification, due to the greater average miles traveled and passenger occupancy of TNC fleets. In this report, the researcher examines EV use in TNC fleets from 2016 through 2018. They leverage novel datasets from TNCs as well as from charging service providers (e.g., Chargepoint and EVGo) to analyze charging and use patterns of EVs within TNC fleets. These insights allow the researcher to quantify the emissions benefits of EV use within TNC fleets, assess the capability of EVs to perform TNC services, and understand the effects of EV use within TNC fleets on the charging behavior of non-TNC EVs. Findings show that the emission benefits of electrifying a vehicle in a TNC fleet are nearly three times greater than the benefits from electrifying a privately-owned vehicle. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Electric vehicle, transportation network company, emissions, fleet, charging, electrification |
| Date: | 2019–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt15s1h1kn&r=all |
| By: | Claudia Kemfert; Sophie Schmalz; Nicole Wägner |
| Abstract: | Gegenwärtig sind die verschiedenen Energieträger in Deutschland unterschiedlich stark mit Abgaben und Umlagen belastet. Um die energie- und klimapolitischen Ziele der Bundesregierung zu erreichen, müssen fossile Heiz- und Kraftstoffe stärker bepreist werden (Kemfert et al. 2019; Dertinger und Schill 2019, SRU 2019). Zugleich herrscht in der energiepolitischen Debatte Uneinigkeit über die die Ausgestaltung einer CO2-Bepreisung. Eine Möglichkeit besteht darin, den EU-Emissionshandels (EUETS) auf die bislang nicht abgedeckten Sektoren Verkehr und Wärme europaweit, für eine Gruppe von EU-Mitgliedstaaten oder national auszuweiten. Eine weitere Option ist ein separates nationales Emissionshandelssystem für diese Sektoren einzuführen und eine dritte die Besteuerung zu reformieren, indem eine CO2-basierte Komponente in der Energiesteuer eingeführt wird. Der Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (SVR) empfiehlt, den EU-ETS europaweit bis zum Jahr 2030 auf die Sektoren Verkehr und Gebäude auszuweiten sowie einen nationalen Emissionshandel oder eine CO2-Steuer als Übergangslösung zu etablieren (SVR 2019). Auch der Wissenschaftliche Beirat des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Energie (BMWi) spricht sich dafür aus, den Zertifikatehandel auszuweiten: Die Preiskorridore für die verschiedenen Sektoren sollen sich zunächst unterscheiden und mittelfristig in einem einheitlichen europäischen Emissionsmarkt zusammengeführt werden (BMWi 2019). Mit folgendem Beitrag werden unterschiedliche Optionen für eine CO2-Bepreisung beschrieben und bewertet. Dabei werden neben der ökonomischen Perspektive (statische und dynamische Effizienz sowie ökologische Effektivität) auch die juristische und politische Durchsetzbarkeit berücksichtigt. |
| Keywords: | CO2-Bepreisung, Emissionshandel, Besteuerung, Wärme- und Verkehrssektor |
| JEL: | Q50 Q52 Q58 H23 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1818&r=all |
| By: | Hilde C. Bjørnland; Julia Zhulanova |
| Abstract: | We analyze if the transmission of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy has changed with the shale oil boom. To do so, we put forward a framework that allows for spillovers between industries and learning by doing (LBD) over time. We identify these spillovers using a time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (VAR) model with both state level and country level data. In contrast to previous results, we find considerable changes in the way oil price shocks are transmitted to the U.S economy: there are now positive spillovers to non-oil investment, employment and production from an increase in the oil price - effects that were not present before the shale oil boom. |
| Keywords: | Shale oil boom, Oil Prices, Time-varying factor-augmented VAR model, Spillovers, Geographical Dispersion |
| JEL: | C11 E32 E42 Q43 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-59&r=all |
| By: | Palma, Alessandro (University of Rome Tor Vergata); Petrunyk, Inna (Leuphana University Lüneburg); Vuri, Daniela (University of Rome Tor Vergata) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of fetal exposure to air pollution on health outcomes at birth in Italy in the 2000s combining information on mother’s residential location from birth certificates with information on PM10 concentrations from air quality monitors. The potential endogeneity deriving from differential pollution exposure is addressed by exploiting as-good-as-random variation in rainfall shocks as an instrumental variable for air pollution concentrations. Our results show that both average levels of PM10 and days above the hazard limit have detrimental effects on birth weight, duration of gestation as well as overall health status at birth. These effects are mainly driven by pollution exposure during the third trimester of pregnancy and further differ in size with respect to the maternal socio-economic status, suggesting that babies born to socially disadvantaged mothers are more vulnerable. Given the non negligible effects of pollution on birth outcomes, further policy efforts are needed to fully protect fetuses from the adverse effects of air pollution and to mitigate the environmental inequality of health at birth. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, particulate matter, birth weight, pre-term birth, environmental policies |
| JEL: | I18 J13 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12467&r=all |
| By: | Christopher Severen; Arthur A. van Benthem |
| Abstract: | An individual’s initial experiences with a common good, such as gasoline, can shape their behavior for decades. We first show that the 1979 oil crisis had a persistent negative effect on the likelihood that individuals that came of driving age during this time drove to work in the year 2000 (i.e., in their mid 30s). The effect is stronger for those with lower incomes and those in cities. Combining data on many cohorts, we then show that large increases in gasoline prices between the ages of 15 and 18 significantly reduce both (i) the likelihood of driving a private automobile to work and (ii) total annual vehicle miles traveled later in life, while also increasing public transit use. Differences in driver license age requirements generate additional variation in the formative window. These effects cannot be explained by contemporaneous income and do not appear to be only due to increased costs from delayed driving skill acquisition. Instead, they seem to reflect the formation of preferences for driving or persistent changes in the perceived costs of driving. |
| Keywords: | formative experiences, preference persistence, path dependence, driving behavior, gasoline price |
| JEL: | D12 D90 L91 Q41 R41 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7757&r=all |
| By: | Nooman Rebei (IMF - "Research Department International Monetary Fund (IMF)" - International Monetary Fund (IMF)); Rashid Sbia (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Ministry of Finance of United Arab Emirates) |
| Abstract: | This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus permanent shocks, pointing to the importance of disentangling their distinct effects. Permanent supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements during the most recent decades, while speculative shocks became less influential. |
| Keywords: | oil market,vector autoregressions,narrative analysis,Bayesian estimation,Kalman filtering |
| Date: | 2019–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02193700&r=all |
| By: | José M. Belbute; Alfredo Marvão Pereira |
| Abstract: | We use an ARFIMA approach to develop reference scenario projections for CO2 emissions worldwide and for seven different regions. Our objective is to determine the magnitude of the policy efforts necessary to achieve the IPCC emissions reductions goals. For worldwide emissions, the aggregate policy effort required to achieve the 2050 goals is equivalent to 97.4% of 2010 emissions. This policy effort is frontloaded as about 60% of such efforts would have to occur by 2030. In order to achieve the IPCC target the policy efforts in the cases of the USA, EU(28), Russia, and Japan - which account for 32% of worldwide emissions, are lower and less frontloaded than the IPCC goals themselves. In the case of China, India and the ROW, which account for 68% of worldwide emissions, additional policy efforts are necessary to achieve reductions in emissions of 105.0%, 156.0% and 111.4%, of the 2010 levels, respectively. In the case of India, policy efforts are not only rather severe but also rather dramatically frontloaded, as about 74% of the policy efforts would have to occur by 2030. Our results suggest that the policies toward decarbonization must consider the specific regional characteristics of emissions. Given the differences in the inertia of emissions in the different regions a one-size fits all approach is not the best approach. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions, IPCC emission targets, long memory, ARFIMA |
| JEL: | C22 C53 O52 Q54 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mde:wpaper:0125&r=all |
| By: | Florin Mihai (Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iași [Romania]); Mihail Eva (CITERES - Cités, Territoires, Environnement et Sociétés - Université de Tours - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Alina-Violeta Munteanu |
| Abstract: | Between 1990 and 2015, the annual global amount of CO 2 emission generated by transport has increased by 68%, from around 4.6 GtCO 2 to around 7.7 GtCO 2. Technological advances towards eco-friendly vehicles and policy incentives promoting environmental-friendly modes of transport have thus been offset by economic growth and increasing mobility. This study questions the relationship between economic growth and sustainability performance of transport sector. It adds to the literature new insights concerning recent trends in the relationship between gross domestic product and various aspects of transport sustainability such as carbon footprint, carbon intensity and transport safety. A particular attention is given to discussing the emerging issues of "carbon inequality" and the role of political entities that contribute most to global CO 2 emissions, such China, USA and the EU. Finally, this study adds to the literature a composite index of transport sustainability performance and explores between-country inequalities in terms of sustainability performance. |
| Keywords: | road fatalities,CO 2 emissions,environmental impact,OECD countries,carbon footprint,carbon inequality |
| Date: | 2019–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02196197&r=all |
| By: | Jozef Baruník; Evžen Kocenda |
| Abstract: | We analyze total, asymmetric and frequency connectedness between oil and forex markets using high-frequency, intra-day data over the period 2007 - 2017. By employing variance decompositions and their spectral representation in combination with realized semivariances to account for asymmetric and frequency connectedness, we obtain interesting results. We show that divergence in monetary policy regimes affects forex volatility spillovers but that adding oil to a forex portfolio decreases the total connectedness of the mixed portfolio. Asymmetries in connectedness are relatively small. While negative shocks dominate forex volatility connectedness, positive shocks prevail when oil and forex markets are assessed jointly. Frequency connectedness is largely driven by uncertainty shocks and to a lesser extent by liquidity shocks, which impact long-term connectedness the most and lead to its dramatic increase during periods of distress. |
| Keywords: | crude oil, forex market, volatility, connectedness, spillovers, semivariance, asymmetric effects, frequency connectedness |
| JEL: | C18 C58 F31 G15 O13 Q31 Q43 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7756&r=all |
| By: | Simplice A. Asongu, Phd (Department of Economics, University of South Africa); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Department of Economics, University of South Africa) |
| Abstract: | In the light of challenges to sustainable development in the post-2015 development agenda, this study assesses how increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions affect inclusive human development in 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for the period 2000-2012. |
| Keywords: | CO2 emissions; Sustainable development; Inclusiveness; Environmental policy; Africa. |
| JEL: | R10 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dbn:wps208:3006&r=all |
| By: | Nils Axel Braathen (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Based on an in-depth literature review and responses to a survey among OECD member countries, this paper discusses the use of flexibility mechanisms in environmental regulations. Such mechanisms can provide flexibility as to how a given environmental improvement is achieved, regarding where environmental improvements take place, when they take place, as regards who is to achieve the improvements, and for which pollutants the emission reductions are to be achieved.The literature on these issues is limited, but it is clear that some such mechanisms can have important environmental and economic impacts. In certain cases, flexibility mechanisms which have provided important benefits in terms of cost reductions have proven to also shift pollution to areas where the negative health impacts are larger. Hence, it will be useful to carefully assess the related social costs and benefits of both existing and new flexibility mechanisms. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, emission trading, environmental regulations, flexibility mechanisms, government policy, valuation of environmental externalities |
| JEL: | Q51 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2019–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:151-en&r=all |
| By: | Hilde C. Bjørnland; Leif Anders Thorsrud; Ragnar Torvik |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop the first model to incorporate the dynamic productivity consequences of both the spending effect and the resource movement effect of oil abundance. We show that doing so dramatically alters the conclusions drawn from earlier models of learning by doing (LBD) and the Dutch disease. In particular, the resource movement effect suggests that the growth effects of natural resources are likely to be positive, turning previous growth results in the literature relying on the spending effect on their head. We motivate the relevance of our approach by the example of a major oil producer, Norway. Empirically we find that the effects of an increase in the price of oil may resemble results found in the earlier Dutch disease literature, while the effects of increased oil activity increases productivity in most industries. Therefore, models that only focus on windfall gains due to increased spending potential from higher oil prices, would conclude - incorrectly based on our analysis - that the resource sector cannot be an engine of growth. |
| Keywords: | Dutch disease, resource movements, learning by doing, analytics of multidimensional dynamic systems, time-varying VAR model |
| JEL: | C32 E32 F41 Q33 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2019-55&r=all |
| By: | Lurbe, Salvador; Manning, Dale; Burkhardt, Jesse |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2019–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea19:291089&r=all |
| By: | Sun, Shanxia; Yun, Seong Do; Huang, Ling |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2019–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea19:290811&r=all |
| By: | Su, Ye; Tenkorang, Frank; Ziwoya, Fletcher |
| Keywords: | Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2019–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea19:290750&r=all |
| By: | Kaya, Ozgur; Klepacka, Anna M.; Florkowski, Wojciech J. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2019–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea19:291298&r=all |
| By: | Kahn, Matthew E. (University of Southern California); Mohaddes, Kamiar (University of Cambridge); Ng, Ryan N. C. (University of Cambridge); Pesaran, M. Hashem (University of Southern California); Raissi, Mehdi (International Monetary Fund); Yang, Jui-Chung (National Tsing Hua University) |
| Abstract: | We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by 7.22 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to 1.07 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; economic growth; adaptation; counterfactual analysis |
| JEL: | C33 O40 O44 O51 Q51 Q54 |
| Date: | 2019–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddgw:365&r=all |
| By: | Edenhofer, Ottmar; Flachsland, Christian; Kalkuhl, Matthias; Knopf, Brigitte; Pahle, Michael |
| Abstract: | Die deutsche Klimapolitik benötigt eine grundlegende Neuausrichtung. Deutschland muss im Rahmen der EU-Lastenteilungsverordnung bis 2030 seine Emissionen im Verkehrs-, Gebäude- und Landwirtschaftssektor sowie in Teilen des Industrie- und Energiesektors um 38 Prozent gegenüber 2005 vermindern, sonst drohen erhebliche Strafzahlungen. Das erfordert einen deutlich steileren CO2-Reduktionspfad als in den vergangenen Jahren. Die Regierung plant daher, bis zum Ende des Jahres ein Klimaschutzgesetz zu verabschieden. Mit der aktuellen Ausrichtung von Energiewende und Klimapolitik kann dieses Ziel allerdings nicht erreicht werden, weil die bestehenden ökonomischen Anreize unzureichend sind und für Investoren und Innovatoren erhebliche Unsicherheiten über die zukünftige Ausrichtung der Klimapolitik bestehen. Außerdem sind die bisherigen Maßnahmen sozial unausgewogen. Der klimapolitische Rahmen muss dringend auf das zentrale Ziel ausgerichtet werden, also das Vermeiden von CO2-Emissionen. Der CO2-Preis sollte zum Leitinstrument der Klimapolitik werden. Gleichzeitig wächst die Unzufriedenheit mit dem unzureichenden klimapolitischen Fortschritt in breiten Teilen der Gesellschaft: Die nationalen Klimaziele für 2020 werden verfehlt. Die Jugend, prominent vertreten durch die "Fridays for Future"-Bewegung, sieht die Lebensgrundlagen ihrer eigenen und künftiger Generationen in Gefahr. Klimaschutz ist zu einem zentralen Thema in der Mitte der Gesellschaft geworden. Daraus ist ein unmittelbarer klimapolitischer Handlungsdruck entstanden, der für eine umfassende Reform der Klimapolitik genutzt werden sollte. Die nötigen Reformen lassen sich nur durch einen Paradigmenwechsel erreichen, bei dem auch die Umwelt- und Klimapolitik an den grundlegenden Prinzipien der Sozialen Marktwirtschaft ausgerichtet wird. Dabei gilt es den Wettbewerb um die günstigsten Vermeidungstechnologien zu fördern, Investitionssicherheit zu stärken, die Gesamtkosten für die Erreichung der Ziele möglichst gering zu halten und die Belastungen gerecht über Haushalte und Unternehmen zu verteilen. Ordnungsrecht und Förderprogramme sollten künftig nur eine ergänzende Rolle einnehmen. Im Zentrum der Neuausrichtung muss eine umfassende und koordinierte Bepreisung der CO2-Emissionen stehen. Die Ausgestaltung einer deutschen CO2-Preisreform sollte von Beginn an als Dreiklang gedacht werden: Erstens muss der Konvergenzpunkt eine europaweit harmonisierte CO2-Bepreisung sein. Zweitens sollte Deutschland als Zwischenschritt zügig eine nationale CO2-Preisreform umsetzen, um seine Ziele im Rahmen der EU-Lastenteilungsverordnung zu erreichen. Drittens sollte die europäische CO2-Preisreform Grundlage für erfolgreiche internationale Klimaverhandlungen werden. Mit dieser Reform haben Deutschland und Europa die Chance, nicht nur die europäische Klimapolitik voranzubringen, sondern auch ihre Position in den internationalen Verhandlungen zu verbessern. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:042019&r=all |
| By: | Tong, Qingmeng; Qiu, Feng; Zhang, Junbiao |
| Keywords: | Demand and Price Analysis |
| Date: | 2019–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea19:290771&r=all |
| By: | Roman Mestre (MRE, Université de Montpellier) |
| Abstract: | The OLS Estimation of the CAPM suffers a lot of statistical issues. We develop a Time-Frequency Multi-Betas Model with Gold and Oil as supplementary source of risk and with ARMA-EGARCH errors to take into consideration some of these statistical weaknesses. We use 30 french stocks listed on the CAC40 for the daily period from 2005 to 2015. The conjugaison of the wavelets decompositions and the parameters estimates constitutes an significant asset for managers choices according to their view (shor-medium-long term). The results represent a decision support by multiplying the interpretive possibilities, In short-run (‘’Noise Trader’’ and ‘’High Frequency trader’’) 1/3 of the equities are not affected by the Oil and Gold fluctuations, and the estimated Betas parameters related to the market movements are few different compare to the Model without wavelets. At the opposite, in long-run (fundamentalists investors), Oil and Gold affect all the stocks but their impact varies according to the Beta (sensitivity to the market). As example, we highlight that Oil prices negatively affect the stocks in long-run especially the equities with a high market beta (greater than 1) as Banking Stocks. We also observe significant differences between parameters estimated with and without wavelets. |
| Keywords: | CAPM, Multi-Betas Model, Time-Frequency Analysis, MODWT, Oil, Gold, CAC40 |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shr:wpaper:19-05&r=all |
| By: | Messina, Diego; Contreras Lisperguer, Rubén |
| Abstract: | Este documento es un aporte de la CEPAL para observar las dinámicas y progresos en América Latina y el Caribe de los indicadores energéticos incluidos en el ODS7 de la Agenda 2030 de las Naciones Unidas. Fue elaborado en el marco del proyecto “Observatorio Regional sobre Energías Sostenibles”, que tiene como objetivo ayudar a construir capacidades técnicas en los países de la región para monitorear sus avances hacia una energía costeable, segura y moderna. |
| Keywords: | RECURSOS ENERGETICOS, AGENDA 2030 PARA EL DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, OBJETIVOS DE DESARROLLO SOSTENIBLE, ENERGIA SOSTENIBLE, RENDIMIENTO ENERGETICO, FUENTES DE ENERGIA RENOVABLES, ESTADISTICAS DE ENERGIA, ENERGY RESOURCES, 2020 AGENDA FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS, SUSTAINABLE ENERGY, RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, ENERGY STATISTICS |
| Date: | 2019–08–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col022:44686&r=all |
| By: | Büdenbender, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | [Anlass für die Analyse] Die Diskussion über notwendige Maßnahmen für den Klimaschutz nimmt weltweit, insbesondere aber auch in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland, an Intensität zu. Hierfür wurden sehr ehrgeizige quantitative Ziele auf der Zeitachse beschlossen, deren Erreichbarkeit fraglich ist. Dies führt generell und insbesondere auch in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland zur Überprüfung bestehender Instrumente und zur Diskussion über deren Erweiterung, wozu auch die Einführung einer CO2-Steuer zählt. Die Thematik wird dadurch befördert, dass eine derartige Steuer bereits in zahlreichen Staaten Europas besteht, vielfach bereits seit vielen Jahren (so in Finnland und Polen seit 1990, in Schweden und Norwegen seit 1991)1. Der Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung ist mit der Erstellung eines Sondergutachtens zu der Frage befasst, ob die Einführung einer CO2-Steuer aus ökonomischer Sicht unter Berücksichtigung der ökologischen Gegebenheiten sinnvoll ist. Das Sondergutachten wird der Bundesregierung am 12.7.2019 übergeben. Für die Erstellung dieses Gutachtens sind verschiedene rechtliche Rahmenbedingungen zu beachten, die einerseits die Gestaltungsmöglichkeiten begrenzen, dabei jedoch andererseits noch vielfältige Varianten für eine mögliche Einführung bestehen lassen. Auf Bitte des Sachverständigenrates legt der Verfasser eine Analyse zu den einschlägigen Rechtsfragen vor. Im Folgenden wird der Einfachheit halber anstelle von Treibhausgasen nur von CO2 gesprochen. In der Sache wird mit dieser Formulierung die Gesamtheit der Treibhausgase erfasst, dem Geltungsanspruch des Zertifikatehandels und der sinnvollen Reichweite einer etwa eingeführten CO2-Steuer entsprechend. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:svrwwp:052019&r=all |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech, VIET - Vietnam Initiative for Energy Transition) |
| Abstract: | In 2016, Vietnam planned to build a fleet of new coal-fired power plants, expanding capacity to 54.5 GW in 2030, from 13.1 GW in 2015. Three years later, the risk of stranded assets not only made this plan sub-optimal, it also made it infeasible because investors are looking elsewhere. |
| Date: | 2019–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-02263622&r=all |
| By: | Hertog, Steffen |
| JEL: | N0 R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2019–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:101249&r=all |
| By: | Nelson, Kelly; Brown, Zachary S.; Parton, Lee |
| Keywords: | Resource/ Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2019–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea19:291243&r=all |
| By: | Calderon Ambelis, Heydi J.; Holcomb, Rodney B. |
| Keywords: | Industrial Organization |
| Date: | 2019–06–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea19:291011&r=all |