nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2019‒05‒27
forty-six papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Central Asia Oil and Gas Industry - The External Powers’ Energy Interests in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan By Pier Paolo Raimondi
  2. Policies to Overcome Barriers for Renewable Energy Distributed Generation: A Case Study of Utility Structure and Regulatory Regimes in Michigan By Emily Prehoda; Joshua Pearce; Chelsea Schelly
  3. Assessing the Techno-economic Effects of the Delayed Deployment of CCS Power Plants By Samuel Carrara
  4. Policies to Reduce CO2 Emissions: Fallacies and Evidence from the United States and California By Granados, José A. Tapia; Spash, Clive L.
  5. Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies Remain Large: An Update Based on Country-Level Estimates By David Coady; Ian Parry; Nghia-Piotr Le; Baoping Shang
  6. Vehicle-to-Grid. Impacts on the electricity market and consumer cost of electric vehicles By Stef Proost; Mads Greaker; Cathrine Hagem
  7. Making Carbon Taxation A Generational Win Win By Laurence J. Kotlikoff; Felix Kubler; Andrey Polbin; Jeffrey D. Sachs; Simon Scheidegger
  8. Microeconomics of the rebound effect for residential solar photovoltaic systems By Matthew E. Oliver; Juan Moreno-Cruz; Ross C. Beppler
  9. Improving economic efficiency and climate mitigation outcomes through international co-ordination on carbon pricing By Daniel Nachtigall
  10. Efficient taxation of fuel and road use By Geir H. M. Bjertnæs
  11. Deep Learning–based Eco-driving System for Battery Electric Vehicles By Wu, Guoyuan; Ye, Fei; Hao, Peng; Esaid, Danial; Boriboonsomsin, Kanok; Barth, Matthew J.
  12. Azerbaijan and its Oil Resources: Curse or Blessing? By Farid Zulfigarov; Matthias Neuenkirch
  13. Asymmetric information on the market for energy efficiency: Insights from the credence goods literature By Bruno Lanz; Evert Reins
  14. Modeling and forecasting carbon dioxide emissions in China using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models By NYONI, THABANI; MUTONGI, CHIPO
  15. Consumer Myopia in Vehicle Purchases: Evidence from a Natural Experiment By Kenneth Gillingham; Sebastien Houde; Arthur A. van Benthem
  16. Rol y perspectivas del sector eléctrico en la transformación energética de América Latina: aportes a la implementación del Observatorio Regional sobre Energías Sostenibles By Dubrovsky, Hilda; Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Contreras Lisperguer, Rubén
  17. Network Utilities Performance and Institutional Quality: Evidence from the Italian Electricity Sector By Soroush, G.; Cambini, C.; Jamasb, T.; Llorca, M.
  18. Intermittency and Pricing Flexibility in Electricity Markets By Jaraite, Jurate; Kazukauskas, Andrius; Brännlund, Runar; Kiran, Chandra; Kriström, Bengt
  19. Population density and urban air quality By Rainald Borck; Philipp Schrauth
  20. Residual shape risk on natural gas market with mixed jump diffusion By Karel Janda; Jakub Kourilek
  21. Redispatch in Zonal Pricing Electricity Markets By Blázquez de Paz, Mario
  22. Technological change, energy, environment and economic growth in Japan By Galina Besstremyannaya; Richard Dasher; Sergei Golovan
  23. Rol y perspectivas del gas natural en la transformación energética de América Latina: aportes a la implementación del Observatorio Regional sobre Energías Sostenibles By Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Dubrovsky, Hilda; Nadal, Gustavo; Contreras Lisperguer, Rubén
  24. Discounting the Future: on Climate Change, Ambiguity Aversion and Epstein-Zin Preferences By Stan Olijslagers; Sweder van Wijnbergen
  25. How are oil supply shocks transmitted to the U.S. economy? By Martin Geiger; Jochen Güntner
  26. New kid on the block? China vs the US in world oil markets By Jamie Cross; Bao H. Nguyen; Bo Zhang
  27. Globalization-Emissions Nexus: Testing the EKC hypothesis in Next-11 Countries By Shahbaz, Muhammad
  28. The perils of automated fitting of datasets: the case of a wind turbine cost model By Claude Kl\"ockl; Katharina Gruber; Peter Regner; Sebastian Wehrle; Johannes Schmidt
  29. The role of expectations for market design – on structural regulatory uncertainty in electricity markets By Ambrosius, M.; Egerer, J.; Grimm, A. V.; van der Weijde, A.
  30. Conformal Prediction Interval Estimations with an Application to Day-Ahead and Intraday Power Markets By Christopher Kath; Florian Ziel
  31. Can Financial Participants Improve Price Discovery and Efficiency in Multi-Settlement Markets with Trading Costs? By Akshaya Jha; Frank A. Wolak
  32. How Do Carbon Emissions Respond to Economic Shocks? Evidence from Low-, Middle- and High-Income Countries By Shahbaz, Muhammad; Khraief, Naceur; Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  33. Equilibrium Trade in Automobile Markets By Kenneth Gillingham; Fedor Iskhakov; Anders Munk-Nielsen; John P. Rust; Bertel Schjerning
  34. The social cost of carbon and inequality: when local redistribution shapes global carbon prices By Ulrike Kornek; David Klenert; Ottmar Edenhofer; Marc Fleurbaey
  35. Fiscal policy and ecological sustainability: A post-Keynesian perspective By Yannis Dafermos; Maria Nikolaidi
  36. La dinámica de los precios de la gasolina en Colombia, su regulación y estructura tarifaria By Fabián Ricardo Martínez Cruz; Carlos Mateo Perilla Castañeda; Juan David Urquijo Vanegas
  37. Minería para un futuro bajo en carbono: oportunidades y desafíos para el desarrollo sostenible By -
  38. Willingness to Sacrifice for Climate Mitigation in Representative Samples of Indian Adults By Spears, Dean; Hathi, Payal; Coffey, Diane
  39. Impacto fiscal de la política de estímulos a la sustitución del parque automotor por vehículos eléctricos By Lavalleja, Martín; Scalese, Federico
  40. The dollar and the Transition to Sustainable Development: From Key Currency to Multilateralism By Michel Aglietta; Virginie Coudert
  41. Climatic Constraints on Aggregate Economic Output By Marshall Burke; Vincent Tanutama
  42. A step-by-step approach to social marketing in energy transition By Rasa Smaliukiene; Salvatore Monni
  43. The private and social value of British electrical interconnectors By Newbery, D.; Gissey, G.; Guo, B.; Dodds, P.
  44. Mathematical Analysis of Impact of Oil, Gold and Currency on Tehran Stock Exchange By Abolfazl Biglar Beigi
  45. Impacts of Japan's Automobile NOx Law of 1992 By Tatsuki Inoue; Nana Nunokawa; Daisuke Kurisu
  46. Global Gas Model: Model and Data Documentation v3.0 (2019) By Ruud Egging; Franziska Holz. With support by Victoria Czempinski; Alexandra Lüth; Sebastian Wegel; Jan Zepter

  1. By: Pier Paolo Raimondi (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)
    Abstract: After the Soviet breakup, Central Asia has gained importance for several States because of its geographical location and abundance of hydrocarbon reserves. These hydrocarbon reserves are located mainly in three countries: Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Each of them has taken different path regarding its foreign policy and the regulation of investments and participation of external companies and States in its energy sector. Through the development, production and export of their oil and gas reserves, they have pursued a ‘multi-vector’ policy, consolidating differently their relations with other countries. The main States involved – at different levels and for different reasons – in the oil and gas sector of the Central Asian countries are: Russia, China, United States, European countries, Iran, India and Turkey. Among these players, Russia considers Central Asia still part of its sphere of influence for historical reasons, while it has to deal an increasing presence of Beijing. The Western countries has gained influence particularly in Kazakhstan, but they have no political leverage in Turkmenistan. This working paper provides an overview of the current situation of external players’ interests in the oil and gas industry of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The working paper is structured into four different sections. In the first section, the paper gives an overview of the main interests and pillars of external involvement in Central Asia as a region. The other three sections are devoted to provide separately the current status of energy relations between each Central Asian country and external players, starting from the closest countries (Russia and China) to the regional ones (Iran, Turkey and India) until non-regional countries (United States and European countries). During these analysis, investments in the oil and gas sector as well as energy export routes and volumes are highlighted in order to understand the current situation of the energy relations. At the end of each country section, the main trends and interests of the countries in the regional oil and gas sector are outlined.
    Keywords: Energy Geopolitics, Oil&Gas, Central Asia, Russia, China, USA, European Union
    JEL: F50 N45 N75 Q40
    Date: 2019–05
  2. By: Emily Prehoda (MTU - Michigan Technological University); Joshua Pearce (MTU - Michigan Technological University); Chelsea Schelly (MTU - Michigan Technological University)
    Abstract: Because of its environmental damage and now often being the most expensive source for electricity production, coal use is declining throughout the United States. Michigan has no active coal mining and seemingly supportive legislation for distributed generation (DG) and renewable energy (RE) technologies. However, Michigan still derives approximately half of its power production from large centralized coal plants, despite the availability of much lower cost RE DG technologies. To understand this conundrum, this study reviews how Michigan investor owned utilities utilize their political power to perpetuate utility structures that work toward the financial interests of the utilities rather than the best interests of the state's electricity consumers, including other firms and residents. Background is provided covering the concept of DG, the cost savings associated with DG, and utility regulatory regimes at the national, regional, state, and local levels. Recent case studies from specific utility strategies are provided in order to illustrate how Michigan utilities manipulate regulatory regimes via policy misinterpretation to deter or hinder the proliferation of DG in favor of maintaining the existing interests in centralized, fossil fuel-based electrical energy production. The results of this study demonstrate how DG proliferation is hindered by Michigan regulated utilities via the exercise of political power within existing legal and regulatory regimes. This highlights the need to think about how utilities may interpret and implement rules when designing energy legislation and policy to maximize the benefits for consumers and society. Policy recommendations and alternate strategies are provided to help enhance the role of energy policy to improve rather than limit the utilization of RE DG.
    Keywords: utility regulation,electric utilities,distributed generation,energy policy,renewable energy
    Date: 2019
  3. By: Samuel Carrara (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory (RAEL), University of California)
    Abstract: Meeting the targets of climate change mitigation set by the Paris Agreement entails a huge transformation of the energy sector, as low- or no-carbon technologies must gradually substitute traditional, fossil-based technologies. In this perspective, the vast majority of energy analyses and scenarios project a fundamental role of Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS). However, uncertainty remains on the actual techno-economic feasibility of this technology: despite the considerable investment over the recent past, commercial maturity is yet to come. The main aim of this work is to evaluate the impacts of a progressively delayed deployment of CCS plants from a climate, energy, and economic perspective, focusing in particular on the power sector. This is carried out with the Integrated Assessment Model WITCH, exploring a wide set of long-term scenarios over mitigation targets ranging from 1.5°C to 4°C in terms of global temperature increase in 2100 with respect to the pre-industrial levels. The analysis shows that CCS will be a key mitigation option at a global level for carbon mitigation, achieving about 30% of the electricity mix in 2100 (with a homogeneous distribution across coal, gas, and biomass) if its deployment is unconstrained. If CCS deployment is delayed or forbidden, penetration cannot reach the optimal unconstrained level, resulting in a mix rearrangement, with a strong increase in renewables and, to a lesser extent, nuclear. The mitigation targets can be met, but policy costs without the implementation of CCS are from 35% to 72% higher than in the corresponding unconstrained scenarios.
    Keywords: Carbon Capture and Storage, CCS, Power Generation, Climate Change Mitigation, Integrated Assessment Models
    JEL: Q42 Q43 Q54
    Date: 2019–05
  4. By: Granados, José A. Tapia; Spash, Clive L.
    Abstract: Since the 1990s, advocates of policy to prevent catastrophic climate change have been divided over the appropriate economic instruments to curb CO2 emissions-carbon taxes or schemes of emission trading. Barack Obama claimed that policies implemented during his presidency set in motion irreversible trends toward a clean-energy economy, with the years 2008-2015 given as evidence of decoupling between CO2 emissions and economic growth. This is despite California being the only state in the USA that has implemented a specific policy to curb emissions, a cap-and-trade scheme in place since 2013. To assess Obama's claims and the effectiveness of policies to reduce CO2 emissions, we analyze national and state-level data from the USA over the period 1990-2015. We find: (a) annual changes in emissions strongly correlated with the growth conditions of the economy; (b) no evidence for decoupling; and (c) a trajectory of CO2 emissions in California which does not at all support the claim that the cap-and-trade system implemented there has reduced CO2 emissions.
    Keywords: Climate change, Cap-and-trade, Carbon emissions trading, Decoupling, Economic growth
    Date: 2019
  5. By: David Coady; Ian Parry; Nghia-Piotr Le; Baoping Shang
    Abstract: This paper updates estimates of fossil fuel subsidies, defined as fuel consumption times the gap between existing and efficient prices (i.e., prices warranted by supply costs, environmental costs, and revenue considerations), for 191 countries. Globally, subsidies remained large at $4.7 trillion (6.3 percent of global GDP) in 2015 and are projected at $5.2 trillion (6.5 percent of GDP) in 2017. The largest subsidizers in 2015 were China ($1.4 trillion), United States ($649 billion), Russia ($551 billion), European Union ($289 billion), and India ($209 billion). About three quarters of global subsidies are due to domestic factors—energy pricing reform thus remains largely in countries’ own national interest—while coal and petroleum together account for 85 percent of global subsidies. Efficient fossil fuel pricing in 2015 would have lowered global carbon emissions by 28 percent and fossil fuel air pollution deaths by 46 percent, and increased government revenue by 3.8 percent of GDP.
    Date: 2019–05–02
  6. By: Stef Proost; Mads Greaker; Cathrine Hagem (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: Higher battery storage capacity in electric vehicles (EV) can potentially serve two purposes: First, the larger the capacity, the less need for inconvenient recharging during long trips. Second, the larger the capacity, the larger the potential gains from vehicle-to-grid (V2G) electricity supply during peak prices or during periods of imbalance. We present an analytical model for the intertwinement of the consumers’ choice of battery capacity and the potential for supplying power to the electricity market. We show that V2G increases the consumers’ choice of battery capacity, and it may reduce the cost of owning an EV vis-à-vis a traditional car. Furthermore, V2G alleviates the capacity pressure on peak hours, and thereby reduces the need for investment in backup power, saving social costs. Based on a future scenario for the Belgian electricity market, we provide a numerical illustration indicating that the savings may be substantial.
    Keywords: Electric vehicles; Vehicle-to-grid; V2G; Electricity market
    JEL: Q41 Q42 Q54 R42
    Date: 2019–04
  7. By: Laurence J. Kotlikoff (Boston University and NBER); Felix Kubler (University of Zurich and Swiss Financial Institute); Andrey Polbin (The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration and The Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Jeffrey D. Sachs (Columbia University and NBER); Simon Scheidegger (University of Lausanne)
    Abstract: Carbon taxation has been studied primarily in social planner or infinitely lived agent models, which trade off the welfare of future and current generations. Such frameworks obscure the potential for carbon taxation to produce a generational win-win. This paper develops a largescale, dynamic 55-period, OLG model to calculate the carbon tax policy delivering the highest uniform welfare gain to all generations. The OLG framework, with its selfish generations, seems far more natural for studying climate damage. Our model features coal, oil, and gas, each extracted subject to increasing costs, a clean energy sector, technical and demographic change, and Nordhaus (2017)’s temperature/damage functions. Our model’s optimal uniform welfare increasing (UWI) carbon tax starts at $30 tax, rises annually at 1.5 percent and raises the welfare of all current and future generations by 0.73 percent on a consumption-equivalent basis. Sharing efficiency gains evenly requires, however, taxing future generations by as much as 8.1 percent and subsidizing early generations by as much as 1.2 percent of lifetime consumption. Without such redistribution (the Nordhaus “optimum†), the carbon tax constitutes a win-lose policy with current generations experiencing an up to 0.84 percent welfare loss and future generations experiencing an up to 7.54 percent welfare gain. With a six-times larger damage function, the optimal UWI initial carbon tax is $70, again rising annually at 1.5 percent. This policy raises all generations’ welfare by almost 5 percent. However, doing so requires levying taxes on and giving transfers to future and current generations ranging up to 50.1 percent and 10.3 percent of their lifetime consumption. Delaying carbon policy, for 20 years, reduces efficiency gains roughly in half.
    JEL: F0 F20 H0 H2 H3 J20
    Date: 2019–04
  8. By: Matthew E. Oliver; Juan Moreno-Cruz; Ross C. Beppler
    Abstract: The rebound effect is a well-known behavioral response whereby potential energy savings from efficiency improvements are partially offset by increased consumption of energy services, as the marginal cost of energy services is reduced. This paper characterizes a similar rebound effect related to installation and operation of a residential photovoltaic (PV) system. This solar rebound effect is different from traditionally studied rebound effects, primarily because it is due not to an improvement in the energy efficiency of a household’s appliances, but to the supply of a zero-marginal-cost perfect substitute for grid electricity. The solar rebound effect is first derived in the absence of any subsidization mechanism. We then modify the model to account for two commonly implemented incentives: installation rebates and net metering. Rebates are shown to increase the rebound effect, whereas the effect of net metering depends on the per-unit compensation rate.
    Keywords: rebound effect, solar energy, residential photovoltaic systems, net metering, investment tax credit
    JEL: Q41 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2019
  9. By: Daniel Nachtigall
    Abstract: This paper presents the potential benefits and challenges of enhanced international co-ordination on carbon pricing and outlines the different types and levels of co-ordination that are available for national and sub-national governments. These levels include, inter alia, facilitating new pricing schemes, phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, sectoral approaches, co-ordination on minimum carbon prices and carbon pricing clubs. Jurisdictions may want to adopt several of these options simultaneously and may co-ordinate at multiple levels of government or across countries and sectors. This creates a bottom-up ‘web of carbon pricing schemes’, which can be an important element in delivering the Nationally Determined Contributions of the Paris Agreement and which has the potential to support greater levels of climate action and ambition.
    Keywords: Carbon clubs, Carbon markets, Carbon pricing, International co-operation, Sectoral agreements
    JEL: H23 Q54 Q56 Q58
    Date: 2019–05–22
  10. By: Geir H. M. Bjertnæs (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: This study calculates efficient taxes on fuel and road use designed to combat driving related externalities. The study shows that the efficient road user charge on fuel is below the marginal mileage-related damage to prevent tax avoidance due to an excessive economic driving-style. The current US tax rate on gasoline is way below the efficient tax rate while the current UK rate is slightly above the efficient rate in this case. The efficient tax on fuels exceeds the marginal damage of CO2- emissions to promote an economic driving-style when the tax is combined with a GPS-based tax on road use. The efficient GPS-based tax rate on road use is reduced below the marginal damage of mileage-related externalities in this case.
    Keywords: Transportation; optimal taxation; environmental taxation; global warming
    JEL: H2 H21 H23 Q58 R48
    Date: 2019–04
  11. By: Wu, Guoyuan; Ye, Fei; Hao, Peng; Esaid, Danial; Boriboonsomsin, Kanok; Barth, Matthew J.
    Abstract: Eco-driving strategies based on connected and automated vehicles (CAV) technology, such as Eco-Approach and Departure (EAD), have attracted significant worldwide interest due to their potential to save energy and reduce tail-pipe emissions. In this project, the research team developed and tested a deep learning–based trajectory-planning algorithm (DLTPA) for EAD. The DLTPA has two processes: offline (training) and online (implementation), and it is composed of two major modules: 1) a solution feasibility checker that identifies whether there is a feasible trajectory subject to all the system constraints, e.g., maximum acceleration or deceleration; and 2) a regressor to predict the speed of the next time-step. Preliminary simulation with microscopic traffic modeling software PTV VISSIM showed that the proposed DLTPA can achieve the optimal solution in terms of energy savings and a greater balance of energy savings vs. computational efforts when compared to the baseline scenarios where no EAD is implemented and the optimal solution (in terms of energy savings) is provided by a graph-based trajectory planning algorithm. View the NCST Project Webpage
    Keywords: Engineering, Eco-driving, deep-learning, energy and emissions, VISSIM
    Date: 2019–05–01
  12. By: Farid Zulfigarov; Matthias Neuenkirch
    Abstract: We examine the relationship between oil price fluctuations and economic activity in Azerbaijan using vector autoregressive models for the period 2002Q1-2018Q4. Our key results are as follows. First, quarterly GDP growth decreases after oil price innovations in both, the oil and gas sector and in the remaining economy. Downturns (upswings) in the oil and gas sector also prompt downturns (upswings) in the non-oil sector as fluctuations in oil revenues affect the government's capacity to subsidize the remaining economy. Second, oil price innovations also lead to higher inflation in Azerbaijan. In response to the required tightening of monetary policy, the manat appreciates against the US dollar. Finally, GDP effects are primarily documented after oil price increases, whereas the interest rate and the exchange rate mainly react to decreases. Inflation increases after both types of shocks, either due to the accommodative monetary policy stance in the case of oil price decreases or due to the shock itself in the case of increases.
    Keywords: Azerbaijan, Dutch disease, natural resources, oil prices, vector autoregression
    JEL: E32 Q43
    Date: 2019
  13. By: Bruno Lanz; Evert Reins
    Abstract: Imperfect information is widely acknowledged to hamper the adoption of energy efficient technologies. In this paper, we study supply-side implications of the associated incentive structure. We build on existing evidence suggesting that energy efficiency owns a credence component, whereby the supply side of the market has more information about what technology is best for consumers. The literature on credence goods markets suggests that informational advantage by an expert-seller leads to market inefficiencies, including low trade volume. We start by developing a simple framework to study supply-side incentives related to the provision of energy efficient technologies. We then document inefficiencies and potential remedies by discussing linkages between an empirical literature on credence goods and that on the market for energy efficiency. Doing so, we identify policy implications and research gaps that are relevant for the adoption of energy efficiency technologies.
    Keywords: Energy efficiency; Asymmetric information; Credence goods; Energy policy; Environmental externalities; Technology adoption.
    JEL: D18 D82 H23 Q41
    Date: 2019–05
    Abstract: This research uses annual time series data on CO2 emissions in China from 1960 to 2017, to model and forecast CO2 using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA approach. Diagnostic tests indicate that China CO2 emission data is I (2). The study presents the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) model. The diagnostic tests further imply that the presented best model is stable and hence acceptable for predicting carbon dioxide emissions in China. The results of the study reveal that CO2 emissions in China are likely to increase and thereby exposing China to a plethora of climate change related challenges. 4 main policy prescriptions have been put forward for consideration by the Chinese government.
    Keywords: ARIMA model; China; CO2 emissions
    JEL: C53 Q47 Q52 Q53 Q54
    Date: 2019–05–06
  15. By: Kenneth Gillingham (Yale University, United States); Sebastien Houde (ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Arthur A. van Benthem (University of Pennsylvania, United States)
    Abstract: A central question in the analysis of fuel-economy policy is whether consumers are myopic with regards to future fuel costs. We provide the first evidence on consumer valuation of fuel economy from a natural experiment. We examine the short-run equilibrium effects of an exogenous restatement of fuel-economy ratings that affected 1.6 million vehicles. Using the implied changes in willingness-to-pay, we find that consumers act myopically: consumers are indifferent between $1 in discounted fuel costs and 15-38 cents in the vehicle purchase price when discounting at 4%. This myopia persists under a wide range of assumptions.
    Keywords: fuel economy, vehicles, myopia, undervaluation, regulation
    JEL: D12 H25 L11 L62 L71 Q4
    Date: 2019–05
  16. By: Dubrovsky, Hilda; Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Contreras Lisperguer, Rubén
    Abstract: Con el fin de apoyar a los países de la región en el logro del Objetivo de Desarrollo Sostenible 7 (ODS 7) para 2030, la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) desarrolló el proyecto “Observatorio Regional sobre Energías Sostenibles para América Latina y el Caribe (ROSE)”, que tiene por objeto cooperar con los países de la región en el diseño de políticas basado en evidencias y en el seguimiento de las acciones destinadas a alcanzar el ODS 7. Para que la región sea capaz de cumplir el ODS 7 al año 2030, es necesario contar con una infraestructura eléctrica flexible, robusta y confiable que pueda garantizar un mayor despliegue de las energías renovables, junto con apoyar el logro de la integración eléctrica regional. Al objeto de conocer la situación y las perspectivas del sector eléctrico de América del Sur, así como las posibilidades de integración, se han relevado los equipamientos existentes y futuros relativos a centrales de generación, líneas de transmisión e interconexión internacional. Se elaboraron mapas regionales y nacionales que permitieron conocer la distribución geográfica actual y futura de la infraestructura principal.
    Date: 2019–05–03
  17. By: Soroush, G.; Cambini, C.; Jamasb, T.; Llorca, M.
    Abstract: It is generally accepted that institutions are important for economic development. However, whether the performance of regulated utilities within a country is affected by the quality of institutions is yet to be investigated thoroughly. We analyse how the quality of regional institutions impact performance of Italian electricity distribution utilities. We use a stochastic frontier analysis approach to estimate cost functions and examine the performance of 108 electricity distribution utilities from 2011 to 2015. This unique dataset was constructed with the help of the Italian Regulator for Energy, Networks, and Environment. In addition, we use a recent dataset on regional institutional quality in Italy. We present evidence that utilities in regions with better government effectiveness, responsiveness towards citizens, control of corruption, and rule of law, also tend to be more cost efficient. The results suggest that national regulators should take regional institutional diversity into account in incentive regulation and efficiency benchmarking of utilities.
    Keywords: Institutional quality; stochastic frontier analysis; electricity distribution in Italy; cost efficiency; inefficiency determinants
    JEL: D22 L51 L94 O43
    Date: 2019–04–15
  18. By: Jaraite, Jurate (CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics); Kazukauskas, Andrius (CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics); Brännlund, Runar (CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics); Kiran, Chandra (CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics); Kriström, Bengt (CERE - the Center for Environmental and Resource Economics)
    Abstract: How can increasing intermittent power generation in the Swedish electricity system be managed in a more market-oriented and cost-efficient way? We argue that market mechanisms are the most natural means for obtaining the needed flexibility in electricity systems. We believe that a complete ex post assessment of the Swedish wholesale and balancing market functioning is crucial to determine the effectiveness of these markets in attaining their major objectives. This report identifies knowledge gaps and suggests the most relevant ex post research directions and questions for analysing the Swedish electricity markets in relation to intermittency and pricing flexibility.
    Keywords: electricity markets; intermittency; Sweden; wind power
    JEL: Q41 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2019–03–29
  19. By: Rainald Borck; Philipp Schrauth
    Abstract: We use panel data from Germany to analyze the effect of population density on urban air pollution (nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and ozone). To address unobserved heterogeneity and omitted variables, we present long difference/fixed effects estimates and instrumental variables estimates, using historical population and soil quality as instruments. Our preferred estimates imply that a one-standard deviation increase in population density increases air pollution by 3-12%.
    Keywords: population density, air pollution
    JEL: Q53 R12
    Date: 2019
  20. By: Karel Janda; Jakub Kourilek
    Abstract: This paper introduces residual shape risk as a new subclass of energy commodity risk. Residual shape risk is caused by insufficient liquidity of energy forward market when retail energy supplier has to hedge his short sales by a non-flexible standard baseload product available on wholesale market. Because of this inflexibility energy supplier is left with residual unhedged position which has to be closed at spot market. The residual shape risk is defined as a difference between spot and forward prices weighted by residual unhedged position which size depends on the shape of customers’ portfolio of a given retail energy supplier. We evaluated residual shape risk over the years 2014 - 2018 with a real portfolio of a leading natural gas retail supplier in the Czech Republic. The size of residual shape risk in our example corresponds approximately to 1 percent of profit margin of natural gas retail supplier.
    Keywords: natural gas markets, spot prices, forward prices, residual shape risk
    JEL: C51 C58 Q41 Q47
    Date: 2019–05
  21. By: Blázquez de Paz, Mario (the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim)
    Abstract: Zonal pricing electricity markets operate sequentially. First, the suppliers compete in a spot market. Second, to alleviate the congestion in the transmission line, in a redispatch market, the suppliers in the importing node are called into operation to increase their production, and the suppliers in the exporting node are compensated to reduce their production. I characterize the equilibrium in a zonal market when the competition is imperfect and the spot and redispatch markets operate sequentially. I also work out the equilibrium when the transmission line is taken into account in the spot market, i.e., it is not necessary to introduce a redispatch market to alleviate the congestion in the transmission line. I find that the consumers' welfare and suppliers' profits depend crucially on the type of redispatch design implemented by the auctioneer, and that could introduce long term investment distortions.
    Keywords: Electricity auctions; Redispatch design; Transmission constraint; Zonal pricing electricity markets
    JEL: D43 D44 L13 L94
    Date: 2019–05–20
  22. By: Galina Besstremyannaya (CEFIR at New Economic School); Richard Dasher (Stanford University); Sergei Golovan (New Economic School)
    Abstract: A considerable amount of research has shown that that carbon tax combined with research subsidy may be regarded as an optimal policy in view of diffusing low carbon technologies for the benefit of the society. The paper exploits the macro economic approach of the endogenous growth models with technological change for a comparative assessment of these policy measures on the economic growth in the US and Japan in the medium and the long run. The results of our micro estimates reveal several important differences across the Japanese and US energy firms: lower elasticity of innovation production function in R&D expenditure, lower probability of a radical innovation, and larger advances of dirty technologies in Japan. This may explain our quantitative findings of stronger reliance on carbon tax than on research subsidies in Japan relative to the US.
    Keywords: endogenous growth, technological change, innovation, carbon tax, energy
    JEL: O11 O13 O47 Q43 Q49
    Date: 2017–12
  23. By: Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Dubrovsky, Hilda; Nadal, Gustavo; Contreras Lisperguer, Rubén
    Abstract: Con el fin de apoyar a los países de la región en el logro del Objetivo de Desarrollo Sostenible 7 (ODS 7) para 2030, la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) desarrolló el proyecto “Observatorio Regional sobre Energías Sostenibles para América Latina y el Caribe (ROSE)”, que tiene por objeto cooperar con los países de la región en el diseño de políticas basado en evidencias y en el seguimiento de las acciones destinadas a alcanzar el ODS 7. Para la consecución de las metas planteadas en el ODS 7 es fundamental comprender el rol del gas natural como un combustible de transición en el actual proceso de cambio energético de la región y en la potencial integración energética de esta.
    Date: 2019–05–03
  24. By: Stan Olijslagers (University of Amsterdam); Sweder van Wijnbergen (University of Amsterdam)
    Abstract: We focus on the effect of preference specifications on the current day valuation of future outcomes. Specifically, we analyze the effect of risk aversion, ambiguity aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution on the willingness to pay to avoid climate change risk. The first part of the paper analyzes a general disaster (jump) risk model with a constant arrival rate of disasters. This provides useful intuition in how preferences influence valuation of long-term risk. The second part of the paper extends this model with a climate model and a temperature dependent arrival rate. Since the model yields closed form solutions up to solving an integral, our model does not suffer from the curse of dimensionality of numerical IAMs with several state variables. Introducing Epstein-Zin preferences with an elasticity of substitution higher than one and ambiguity aversion leads to much larger estimates of the social cost of carbon than obtained under power utility. The dominant parameters are the risk aversion coefficient and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. Ambiguity aversion is of second order importance.
    Keywords: Social Cost of Carbon, Ambiguity Aversion, Epstein-Zin preferences, Stochastic Differential Utility, Climate Change
    JEL: Q51 Q54 G12 G13
    Date: 2019–04–24
  25. By: Martin Geiger (Liechtenstein-Institut); Jochen Güntner
    Abstract: We investigate how oil supply shocks are transmitted to U.S. economic activity, consumer prices, and interest rates. Using a structural VAR approach with a combination of sign and zero restrictions, we distinguish between supply and demand channels in the transmission of exogenous changes in crude oil production. We nd that the adverse e ects of negative oil supply shocks are transmitted mainly through the demand side, as both output and interest rates react more strongly to oil supply shocks that shift the U.S. aggregate demand curve, while the supply side matters in transmitting oil supply shocks to consumer prices.
    Keywords: Business cycles, oil supply shocks, structural VAR estimation, transmission channels
    JEL: C32 E30 Q41 Q43
    Date: 2019–05
  26. By: Jamie Cross; Bao H. Nguyen; Bo Zhang
    Abstract: China has recently overtaken the US to become the world largest importer of crude oil. In light of this fact, we formally compare contributions of demand shocks from China, the US and the rest of the world. We find that China’s influence on the real price of oil has increased over the past two decades and surpassed that of the US. Despite this result, oil prices are more sensitive to demand shocks from the US than China. Finally, we document that demand shocks from China alone were too small to have caused the mid 2003-2008 price surge. Instead, oil specific demand shocks are found to be the major determinant of the real oil price during this period.
    Keywords: China, US, Oil markets
    JEL: C32 E32 Q4
    Date: 2019–05
  27. By: Shahbaz, Muhammad
    Abstract: This study investigates the association between globalization and carbon emissions for N-11 countries. In doing so, we apply bounds testing approach to examine cointegration between globalization and CO2 emissions. The results confirm the U-shaped association between globalization and carbon emissions for Bangladesh, Iran, and South Korea. Contrarily, traditional approach validates an inverted-U relationship between globalization and carbon emissions for Pakistan and South Korea, but U-shaped relationship exists for the Philippines and Vietnam. The presence or absence of an inverted-U relationship between globalization and carbon emissions has important policy implications using globalization as an economic tool for sustainable economic development.
    Keywords: Globalization, Emissions, EKC, N-11
    JEL: Q5
    Date: 2019–05–01
  28. By: Claude Kl\"ockl; Katharina Gruber; Peter Regner; Sebastian Wehrle; Johannes Schmidt
    Abstract: Rinne et al. conduct an interesting analysis of the impact of wind turbine technology and land-use on wind power potentials, which allows profound insights into each factors contribution to overall potentials. The paper presents a detailed model of site-specific wind turbine investment cost (i.e. road- and grid access costs) complemented by a model used to estimate site-independent costs. We believe that propose a cutting edge model of site-specific investment costs. However, the site-independent cost model is flawed in our opinion. This flaw most likely does not impact the results presented in the paper, although we expect a considerable generalization error. Thus the application of the wind turbine cost model in other contexts may lead to unreasonable results. More generally, the derivation of the wind turbine cost model serves as an example of how applications of automated regression analysis can go wrong.
    Date: 2019–05
  29. By: Ambrosius, M.; Egerer, J.; Grimm, A. V.; van der Weijde, A.
    Abstract: Ongoing policy discussions on the reconfiguration of bidding zones in European electricity markets induce structural uncertainty about the future market design. This paper deals with the question of how this structural uncertainty affects market participants and their long-run investment decisions in generation and transmission capacity. We propose a stochastic multilevel model, which incorporates generation capacity investment, network expansion and redispatch, taking into account uncertainty about the future market design. Using a stylized two-node network, we disentangle different effects that uncertainty has on market outcomes. Our results reveal that expectations about future market structures have an important effect on investment decisions. Unlike most parametric uncertainties, structural uncertainty about the future market design can have a positive effect on welfare, even if a market design change does not actually take place, although there are distributional effects. This also implies that the welfare gains of a change to a more efficient market design are lower if market participants already anticipate this change.
    Keywords: Electricity, investment, structural uncertainty, market design, bidding zones, nodal pricing
    JEL: D80 L51 Q41 Q48
    Date: 2019–05–07
  30. By: Christopher Kath; Florian Ziel
    Abstract: We discuss a concept denoted as Conformal Prediction (CP) in this paper. While initially stemming from the world of machine learning, it was never applied or analyzed in the context of short-term electricity price forecasting. Therefore, we elaborate the aspects that render Conformal Prediction worthwhile to know and explain why its simple yet very efficient idea has worked in other fields of application and why its characteristics are promising for short-term power applications as well. We compare its performance with different state-of-the-art electricity price forecasting models such as quantile regression averaging (QRA) in an empirical out-of-sample study for three short-term electricity time series. We combine Conformal Prediction with various underlying point forecast models to demonstrate its versatility and behavior under changing conditions. Our findings suggest that Conformal Prediction yields sharp and reliable prediction intervals in short-term power markets. We further inspect the effect each of Conformal Prediction's model components has and provide a path-based guideline on how to find the best CP model for each market.
    Date: 2019–05
  31. By: Akshaya Jha; Frank A. Wolak
    Abstract: The introduction of purely financial participants into commodity markets is thought to yield forward prices that better reflect future spot prices, and ultimately, more efficient future production and consumption decisions. However, there are sizable transaction costs associated with trading in most commodity markets. This paper develops a statistical test of the null hypothesis that expected forward/spot price spreads cannot be arbitraged even after accounting for these transactions costs. We apply this test to hourly, location-specific day-ahead and real-time prices from California's wholesale electricity market. The implied trading cost required to reject the null hypothesis of no profitable arbitrage opportunities falls significantly after California allowed purely financial participation. Moreover, variable input costs per MWh of electricity produced fell by 3.6% in high demand hours after the introduction of purely financial participants. Combined, our evidence supports the hypothesis that the introduction of purely financial participants into the California wholesale electricity market decreased the average difference and the volatility of the difference between day-ahead and real-time prices, which ultimately lowered the total variable cost of serving demand
    JEL: G13 G14 Q02 Q4
    Date: 2019–05
  32. By: Shahbaz, Muhammad; Khraief, Naceur; Hammoudeh, Shawkat
    Abstract: In this study, we examine the stationarity of CO2 emissions per capita for 98 low-, middle- and high-income countries from 1975 to 2014. To this end, we conduct the nonlinear unit root test developed by Kruse (2011) given that nearly half of the series exhibit nonlinear behaviour over the time period. This empirical evidence provides support for the non-stationarity hypothesis that 50% of CO2 emissions are from middle-income countries. For the robustness check, we use the panel unit root tests described by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005) and Bai and Carrion-i-Silvestre (2009), which allow for structural breaks and cross-section dependence. The results provide evidence of stationarity for all three income groups.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions, Stationary, Global level
    JEL: Q5
    Date: 2019–05–02
  33. By: Kenneth Gillingham; Fedor Iskhakov; Anders Munk-Nielsen; John P. Rust; Bertel Schjerning
    Abstract: We introduce a computationally tractable dynamic equilibrium model of the automobile market where new and used cars of multiple types (e.g. makes/models) are traded by heterogeneous consumers. Prices and quantities are determined endogenously to equate supply and demand for all car types and vintages, along with the ages at which cars are scrapped. The model allows for transactions costs, taxes, flexible specifications of car characteristics, consumer preferences, and heterogeneity. We apply the model to two examples: a revenue-neutral replacement of the new vehicle registration tax with a higher fuel tax and a hypothetical “merger to monopoly” in an oligopolistic new car market. We show substantial gains in consumer welfare from the tax policy change, as well as important effects on government revenues, automobile prices, driving, fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions, while the merger leads to substantial welfare losses.
    JEL: L9 L98 Q4 Q5 R4
    Date: 2019–05
  34. By: Ulrike Kornek; David Klenert; Ottmar Edenhofer; Marc Fleurbaey
    Abstract: The social cost of carbon is the central economic measure for aggregate climate change damages and functions as a metric for optimal carbon prices. Previous literature shows that inequality significantly influences the level of the social cost of carbon, but mostly neglects a major source of inequality - heterogeneity in income below the national level. We characterize the relationship between climate and redistributional policy in an optimal taxation model that explicitly accounts for inequality between and within countries. In particular, we demonstrate that climate and distributional policy cannot be separated when national governments fail to compensate low-income households for climate change damages: Even if only one country does not compensate especially affected households, the social cost of carbon increases globally. Further, we use numerical methods to estimate the scope of these effects. Our results suggest that it is crucial to correct previous estimates of the social cost of carbon for national distributional policies.
    Keywords: optimal taxation, inequality, climate change, social cost of carbon
    JEL: D30 D61 D63 H21 H23 Q54
    Date: 2019
  35. By: Yannis Dafermos; Maria Nikolaidi
    Abstract: Fiscal policy has a strong role to play in the transition to an ecologically sustainable economy. This paper critically discusses the way that green fiscal policy has been analysed in both conventional and post-Keynesian approaches. It then uses a recently developed post-Keynesian ecological macroeconomic model in order to provide a comparative evaluation of three different types of green fiscal policy: carbon taxes, green subsidies and green public investment. We show that (i) carbon taxes reduce global warming but increase financial risks due to their adverse effects on the profitability of firms and credit availability; (ii) green subsidies and green public investment improve ecological efficiency, but their positive environmental impact is partially offset by their macroeconomic rebound effects; and (iii) a green fiscal policy mix derives better outcomes than isolated policies. Directions for future heterodox macroeconomic research on the links between fiscal policy and ecological sustainability are suggested.
    Keywords: post-Keynesian economics, ecological economics, green fiscal policy, stock-flow consistent modelling
    JEL: E12 E62 Q54 Q57
    Date: 2019–05
  36. By: Fabián Ricardo Martínez Cruz; Carlos Mateo Perilla Castañeda; Juan David Urquijo Vanegas
    Abstract: El consumo de combustibles refinados en la sociedad actual se comporta como determinante del desarrollo productivo diario de cada individuo, principalmente por su uso en los medios de transporte. Este bien está sujeto a diferentes factores regulatorios en su precio que aseguran que tanto el Estado, la sociedad y los productores se vean beneficiados por su producción y venta. El presente documento estudia la dinámica de los precios de la gasolina en Colombia y cómo se ve es afectada por factores externos como el precio internacional del petróleo. El análisis se lleva a cabo a través de la metodología de determinación de precios comparada con el panorama latinoamericano, por su cercanía y similitudes en costos. Se encuentra que la estructura actual es demasiado compleja e ineficiente si se quiere mejorar la competitividad y los precios en el mercado y que una política clara por parte del Gobierno podría no solo incentivar el sector sino también dinamizar la productividad del país, tomando en cuenta la transición hacia los combustibles renovables. The consumption of refined fuels in our current society works as a determinant in the daily productive development of every person mainly because of the use of transport issues. In this way, this good is subject to different regulatory factors in its price that ensure that the State, society and producers benefits by its production and sale. Thus, this document will study how the dynamics of prices in Colombia works by analyzing the operation of it in comparison with the Latin American panorama, due to its proximity and similarities in costs; and how this dynamic is affected by external factors such as movements in international oil prices. It is found that the current structure is too complex and inefficient if we want to improve competitiveness and prices in the market and that a clear policy by the Government could not only stimulate the sector but also boost the country's productivity taking into consideration the transition to renewable fuels.
    Keywords: gasolina, regulación, estructura de precios, política fiscal
    JEL: E62 E64 L71
    Date: 2019–05–09
  37. By: -
    Abstract: Este documento se basa en las ponencias y comentarios de los expertos que participaron en el seminario regional Minería para un Futuro bajo en Carbono: Oportunidades y Desafíos para el Desarrollo Sostenible, realizado los días 4 y 5 de junio de 2018 en la sede de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), en Santiago. En este seminario se abordaron cinco temas centrales: 1) la minería como actor en la agenda mundial para el desarrollo sostenible y de cambio climático: gobernanza y sostenibilidad; 2) el análisis de la creciente demanda global y sus impactos para América Latina: oportunidades para la innovación y nuevos productos; 3) desafíos para la minería del siglo XXI: viejos y nuevos riesgos; 4) clima, medio ambiente y territorio: elementos de una minería inteligente con respecto al clima, y 5) nuevas tecnologías e innovaciones: elementos de una minería inteligente con respecto al clima.
    Date: 2019–04–14
  38. By: Spears, Dean (University of Texas at Austin); Hathi, Payal (rice Institute); Coffey, Diane (rice Institute)
    Abstract: Under the Paris Agreement, each country submits national pledges that reflect common but differentiated responsibility. Policy-makers therefore need to understand the mitigation policy interests of domestic populations, especially in developing countries where survey data are relatively scarce. Here we describe results from a new survey-experiment that is representative of adults in the Indian state of Rajasthan and city of Mumbai: most respondents report willingness to sacrifice to achieve climate mitigation.
    Keywords: environment, climate, India, electricity, survey, phone survey, development
    JEL: Q56
    Date: 2019–04
  39. By: Lavalleja, Martín; Scalese, Federico
    Abstract: En este trabajo se estudia el impacto en la recaudación de la política tributaria de estímulo a la sustitución del parque automotor por vehículos eléctricos. Con este objetivo, se analiza la situación internacional y regional, la estructura de incentivos y recaudación, así como la rentabilidad de la inversión en este tipo de vehículo. En función de esto y otros supuestos relevantes, se proyecta la evolución del parque automotor y la participación de los vehículos eléctricos. Finalmente, se estima el impacto en la recaudación tributaria que tendría la sustitución del parque automotor a combustible por uno que incorpore vehículos eléctricos en diferentes escenarios.
    Date: 2019–04–29
  40. By: Michel Aglietta; Virginie Coudert
    Abstract: Drastic changes in US politics relative to international agreements and to bilateral relationships with China raise a political question about the key currency status of the dollar and a theoretical question in international monetary economics: Can a key currency system be maintained if the issuing country deliberately engages in conflicting protectionist policy? This policy brief investigates how the positions of major currencies have been changing in the international monetary system for several years. The key currency relies on the acceptance of the issuing country as a benevolent hegemon that delivers an economic policy conducive to international financial stability. Until recently, it appeared that, despite the relative shrinking of the US weight in the world economy, the dollar had maintained its dominance both in international payments and in official reserves. However, uncertainty in US policy is disrupting risk perception in heavily dollar-indebted emerging and developing countries. Besides, denying the services of international transactions for non-US-resident firms with countries under US embargo is a serious encroachment on the key currency system. In the long run, the forces that can transform the international monetary system (IMS) stem from the transformation of the growth regime under environmental constraints. Since its genesis in the industrial revolution, the key currency has been the currency of the country dominating the primary energy resource, e.g. the commodity most traded worldwide. The pound sterling was linked with UK dominance in coal, the dollar with US dominance in oil. The irremediable shift to renewables, required to moderate climate change, will shift the growth regime to dispersed sources of renewable energy. The developing countries have inadequate financial resources to undertake the needy investments. Second, the positions of countries in terms of energy dependence will be reshuffled. A multilateral financial system, mixing public and private financial institutions, will require the cooperation of major countries to channel saving from all parts of the world to finance those investments. Here we argue that a multilateral monetary system would be more adapted to these challenges than the present one. It would fulfill the basic functions of international money in providing an ultimate reserve asset that will be the debt of no country, an SDR-based IMS. The last section of the paper explains the transition from dollar to SDR reserve.
    Keywords: Key Currency;Multilateral System;SDRs (Special Drawing Rights)
    JEL: F33 F36
    Date: 2019–05
  41. By: Marshall Burke; Vincent Tanutama
    Abstract: Efficient responses to climate change require accurate estimates of both aggregate damages and where and to whom they occur. While specific case studies and simulations have suggested that climate change disproportionately affects the poor, large-scale direct evidence of the magnitude and origins of this disparity is lacking. Similarly, evidence on aggregate damages, which is a central input into the evaluation of mitigation policy, often relies on country-level data whose accuracy has been questioned. Here we assemble longitudinal data on economic output from over 11,000 districts across 37 countries, including previously nondigitized sources in multiple languages, to assess both the aggregate and distributional impacts of warming temperatures. We find that local-level growth in aggregate output responds non-linearly to temperature across all regions, with output peaking at cooler temperatures (less than 10°C) than estimated in earlier country analyses and declining steeply thereafter. Long difference estimates of the impact of longer-term (decadal) trends in temperature on income are larger than estimates from an annual panel model, providing additional evidence for growth effects. Impacts of a given temperature exposure do not vary meaningfully between rich and poor regions, but exposure to damaging temperatures is much more common in poor regions. These results indicate that additional warming will exacerbate inequality, particularly across countries, and that economic development alone will be unlikely to reduce damages, as commonly hypothesized. We estimate that since 2000, warming has already cost both the US and the EU at least $4 trillion in lost output, and tropical countries are greater than 5% poorer than they would have been without this warming.
    JEL: O13 Q5 Q54
    Date: 2019–04
  42. By: Rasa Smaliukiene (Vilnius Gediminas Technical University, General Jonas Žemaitis Military Academy of Lithuania); Salvatore Monni (Roma Tre University)
    Abstract: By examining social marketing this articles has featured a step-by step approach for residential behavioural change towards sustainable energy transition. Specifically, this article considers the value-based approach instead of rational information campaigns for behavioural change of energy users. The proposed framework is based on environmental values and designed to transform the selected destructive behaviour into a sustainable one. The framework consist of five steps: (1) selecting the behaviour, (2) user orientation, (3) exchange, (4) marketing mix: elements of intervention, (5) measuring behaviour change. As behavioural change is the final goal of any energy efficiency campaign, it becomes also a starting point and an objective of the rest of the activities in the framework. Second, we suggest using the user orientation concept that divides the society into three groups based on their attitude towards environmental issues, i.e. environmentalist, the environmentally concerned and the disinterested. In the third step we apply the exchange theory; whereas in the step of 'marketing mix' a conceptual combination of six elements for energy transition is reasoned: proposition, cost, communication, communities and partnership. Finally, the fifth step stresses on the measurement of the behavioural change that enables energy transition. The proposed step-by step framework is based on theory and builded on current practice in a field that is analysed in the article.
    Keywords: energy transition,renewable energy sources,household,social marketing,communication campain
    Date: 2019–03–30
  43. By: Newbery, D.; Gissey, G.; Guo, B.; Dodds, P.
    Abstract: Interconnectors have increasing value for Britain in providing access to cheaper Continental power, security of supply, and managing increased renewables penetration. Their value has induced proposals for substantial new interconnectors. The EU Target Electricity Model requires interconnector market coupling via Day Ahead and IntraDay Markets. We examine the efficiency and value of uncoupled and coupled trading for the four DC interconnectors to GB, over different timescales ranging from over a year ahead to intraday, and the social benefits that are not reflected in the private benefits. IFA and BritNed have a commercial value of about €525 million/yr. The island of Ireland coupled on 1 Oct 2018, dramatically reducing trading inefficiency. Because the GB carbon tax is not replicated abroad it transfers some €40 million/yr to the foreign share of IFA and BritNed as well as adding distortionary costs when trade flows change. The policy implication is that while further investment in interconnectors appears socially profitable, it is important to harmonise carbon taxes across the EU. If GB leaves the EU and is uncoupled, some of these trading gains would be sacrificed, but other financial markets may alleviate the cost of Brexit, making policies to enhance liquidity desirable.
    Keywords: Interconnectors, market coupling, hedging, private and social cost
    JEL: C54 D40 D44 F14 H23 L94 Q48
    Date: 2019–04–15
  44. By: Abolfazl Biglar Beigi (IASBS - Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences [Zanjan])
    Abstract: The use of economic factors has led to a lot of research on the behavior of stock markets. These economic factors can be evaluated simultaneously using statistical tools called joint. The present paper examines the impact of global oil, Currency (Dollar) and gold prices on the Tehran Stock Exchange, using conditional heteroscedastic Models. indeed, we used autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH), the generalized ARCH (GARCH) to capture behavior of the volatility. Actual data of years obtained from the Iran Market is used to t the models.
    Keywords: Time series,Volatility models,TSE,Autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic,Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic
    Date: 2018
  45. By: Tatsuki Inoue; Nana Nunokawa; Daisuke Kurisu
    Abstract: This study investigates the impacts of the Automobile NOx Law of 1992 on four pollutants in Japan. By utilizing monitoring data between 1897 and 1997, we found that the regulation decreased the level of SO2 by approximately 12.4%. The improving effects on the levels of NOx, Ox, and suspended particulate matter are estimated at 5.8%, 3.1%, and 3.5%, respectively. The result from our flexible specification suggests that, although the regulated areas experienced improvements in concentration, the neighboring effects might have been negligible.
    Date: 2019–05
  46. By: Ruud Egging; Franziska Holz. With support by Victoria Czempinski; Alexandra Lüth; Sebastian Wegel; Jan Zepter
    Date: 2019

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