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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Zapata, Christina; Yang, Christopher; Yeh, Sonia; Ogden, Joan; Kleeman, Michael J. |
| Abstract: | The California Regional Multisector Air Quality Emissions (CA-REMARQUE) model is developed to predict changes to criteria pollutant emissions inventories in California in response to sophisticated emissions control programs implemented to achieve deep greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. Two scenarios for the year 2050 act as the starting point for calculations: a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and an 80% GHG reduction (GHG-Step) scenario. Each of these scenarios was developed with an energy economic model to optimize costs across the entire California economy and so they include changes in activity, fuels, and technology across economic sectors. Separate algorithms are developed to estimate emissions of criteria pollutants (or their precursors) that are consistent with the future GHG scenarios for the following economic sectors: (i) on-road, (ii) rail and off-road, (iii) marine and aviation, (iv) residential and commercial, (v) electricity generation, and (vi) biorefineries. Properly accounting for new technologies involving electrification, biofuels, and hydrogen plays a central role in these calculations. Critically, criteria pollutant emissions do not decrease uniformly across all sectors of the economy. Emissions of certain criteria pollutants (or their precursors) increase in some sectors as part of the overall optimization within each of the scenarios. This produces nonuniform changes to criteria pollutant emissions in close proximity to heavily populated regions when viewed at 4km spatial resolution with implications for exposure to air pollution for those populations. As a further complication, changing fuels and technology also modify the composition of reactive organic gas emissions and the size and composition of particulate matter emissions. This is most notably apparent through a comparison of emissions reductions for different size fractions of primary particulate matter. Primary PM2.5 emissions decrease by 4% in the GHG-Step scenario vs. the BAU scenario while corresponding primary PM0.1 emissions decrease by 36%. Ultrafine particles (PM0.1) are an emerging pollutant of concern expected to impact public health in future scenarios. The complexity of this situation illustrates the need for realistic treatment of criteria pollutant emissions inventories linked to GHG emissions policies designed for fully developed countries and states with strict existing environmental regulations. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–04–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt87p8r455&r=all |
| By: | Raju, Arun; Roy, Partho S |
| Abstract: | Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) is an important alternative fuel that can help the State of California meet several GHG and renewable energy targets. Despite considerable potential, current RNG use on national and state levels are not significant. As part of this grant, the University of California, Riverside (UCR) has established a research center dedicated to the development of technologies that will enable RNG production and use in substantial quantities in California and elsewhere. The new center, referred to as the Center for Renewable Natural Gas (CRNG), leverages on-going research and collaborations at the Bourns College of Engineering – Center for Environmental Research & Technology (CE-CERT) at UCR to maximize the impact. RNG production potential in California through thermochemical conversion was evaluated as part of this project by assessing technical biomass availability in the state. Biomass feedstocks are defined broadly and include most carbonaceous matter including waste. The types of waste biomass available in the state are classified into three categories: municipal solid waste (MSW), agricultural residue and forest residue. A total of 32.1 million metric tonnes per year (MMT/year) of biomass is estimated to be technically available in the state. The energy content of this biomass is equivalent to approximately 602.4 million mmbtu/year. A survey of current renewable electricity generation and curtailment trends in California was conducted. Real-time data show significant curtailment throughout the year totaling approximately 440 GWh over a twelve month period from November 2016 to October 2017. Power to gas and other forms of long term storage integrated into the electric grid can mitigate these losses and enable smooth integration of additional renewables into the grid. Oxygen/air blown gasification, hydrogasification and pyrolysis are the three major technology options available for thermochemical biomass conversion to a gaseous fuel, including RNG. A literature survey of available thermochemical conversion technologies was conducted. Although there are no commercial thermochemical biomass to RNG conversion facilities in operation, a number of gasification and pyrolysis technologies are undergoing pilot scale demonstration and development. Design basis for two thermochemical and power to gas conversion projects were developed as part of this project. Significant research, development, and deployment efforts are necessary to achieve successful commercialization of thermochemical RNG production. Outreach and education activities including a ribbon cutting ceremony for the Center for Renewable Natural Gas and an RNG themed symposium were also conducted as part of the project. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Biomass fuels, Electric power transmission, Energy storage systems, Natural gas, Natural gas distribution systems, Renewable energy sources, Thermal power generation |
| Date: | 2018–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0055g3kb&r=all |
| By: | Giuliano, Genevieve; White, Lee; Dexter, Sue |
| Abstract: | This report evaluates the market status and potential freight market penetration of zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) and near ZEVs in the medium and heavy duty class within the California market. It evaluates alternative technologies, primarily battery electric, fuel cell, and hybrid technologies, and compares them to existing gasoline, diesel, and natural gas vehicles used in comparable applications. Refueling infrastructure requirements and logistics planning are considered along with vehicle technology. The report’s primary focus is on intra-urban, as opposed to long haul, deployment scenarios. Intra-urban scenarios produce the greatest potential for reduction of pollutant exposure while minimizing problems associated with the reduced range of some developing vehicle technologies. In California, there are currently 2080 hybrid, 300 medium duty and 40 heavy duty electric vehicles in demonstration or revenue service. There are currently plans to deploy several dozen heavy duty fuel cell vehicles in the near future. The literature review finds that while there are substantial existing studies providing direct comparisons between light-duty electric and fossil-fueled vehicles during actual operation, heavy-duty electric vehicles (e.g., class 8) have been less well studied. Fuel cell vehicle studies are also very sparse, and are primarily available in the public transit sector for buses. ZEV vehicles are still comparatively more expensive to purchase, though they have much higher fuel efficiency when compared with traditional diesel technology. Due to range restrictions, these vehicles would also require additional attention to routing and refueling, which at present is considered on a case-by-case basis by each company conducting demonstration projects thus has limited comparability. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1jw9m352&r=all |
| By: | Sanguinetti, Angela |
| Abstract: | Driver behavior has an immense impact on vehicle fuel economy and emissions, yet it has historically been treated as random error in models of fuel economy and neglected in energy and environmental policy-making regarding fuel efficiency. Recently, concern about fossil fuel depletion and climate change, as well as the critical role of driver behavior in achieving the fuel economy benefits of new hybrid and electric vehicles, has created interest in eco-driving. Eco-driving refers to suites of behavior a driver can engage in to improve fuel economy. The most common strategy used to promote eco-driving is feedback that conveys information about fuel efficiency to the driver. Feedback is typically visual and provided on-board the vehicle via digital screens (dash or instrument cluster displays, after-market devices, or web apps on personal smartphones or tablets). No policies exist requiring manufacturers to provide eco-driving feedback, yet feedback systems of increasing variety are appearing in vehicles, likely due to advances in telematics and decreasing costs of new technologies. The rapidly increasing prevalence and complexity of in-vehicle information systems, along with concern for driver distraction, suggest standardization of eco-driving feedback may be warranted in the near future. Thus, there is a need to understand what types of eco-driving feedback are effective. This white paper presents a statistical meta-analysis of eco-driving feedback studies in order to determine a pooled estimate of the impact on fuel economy and explore how characteristics of feedback interventions influence their impact. It provides the most accurate estimate to-date of the average impact of in-vehicle feedback on fuel economy and summarizes the current state of knowledge regarding characteristics of eco-driving feedback interventions that determine effectiveness. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, eco-driving, eco-feedback, in-vehicle display, onboard feedback, meta-analysis, review |
| Date: | 2018–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt99m5j3q7&r=all |
| By: | Turrentine, Tom; Hardman, Scott; Garas, Dahlia |
| Abstract: | To achieve carbon reduction goals for 2040 and 2050, plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) policy must be worldwide and involve multi-decade policy programs. One policy is a broadening commitment to ending fossil fuels for light-duty vehicles; this will solidify the direction and accelerate investments in zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) and decapitalization of internal combustion drivetrain production so as to enable the climate driven timetable of the transition. Another proposed policy is up to two decades of financial signals to buyers and producers, sized to keep the market tilted toward PEVs while production costs decline. Additional privileges in road, parking and electricity systems are needed to attract more conservative segments of buyers and sellers. PEV manufacturers could commit to at least three generations of PEV design, and investment and product rollout into all market segments and vehicle designs. Outreach and education campaigns lasting through those three generations of potential consumers could also be implemented, including leveraging the enthusiastic desire of the first few million buyers to educate coworkers and neighbors. Inclusion of energy transitions in the education system is also necessary. The retail sector, primarily dealers included in the policy, could also have education and incentive programs. Efforts of OEMs, governments and power companies could be coordinated to meet charging needs and wants of the expanding market. This will need to include the greening of the grid and integration of PEVs in the system optimization of renewables. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1w3836d3&r=all |
| By: | Witcover, Julie |
| Abstract: | From 2011–2017, the share of alternative fuels in California’s transportation energy grew from 6.1 percent to 8.5 percent. Of alternative fuel energy, the portion coming from non-liquid fuels increased from 7.6 percent to 13.5 percent over the period. Through 2018 Q1, total emissions reduction requirements under the regulation were 28.9 million tons (MMT) CO2e. Actual reported emissions reductions were 38.3 MMT CO2e, representing overcompliance of 9.3 MMT CO2e, creating a system-wide credit “bank†that can be used to meet future targets. In 2017 and 2018 Q1, program deficits exceeded credits for the first time, by 0.1 MMT CO2e and 0.4 MMT CO2e, respectively, drawing down the credit “bank.†Increases in alternative fuel use and declines in carbon intensity (CI) rating came primarily from the diesel pool. Biomass-based diesel—biodiesel and renewable diesel—accounted for 0.4 percent of liquid diesel fuel by volume in 2011 and 15.6 percent in 2018 Q1. Natural gas in transportation grew 111 percent from 2011–2017 to 178.1 gasoline gallon equivalent (gge). Of this natural gas, biogas use was close to nil in 2011 but approximately two-thirds in 2017. Among gasoline substitutes, electricity use grew from less than 0.5 percent of alternative energy in 2011 to 4.5 percent in 2018 Q1. Use of ethanol, the largest renewable fuel by volume, remained close to a “blendwall†of 10 percent blended with gasoline. Prices of LCFS compliance credits (each representing 1 MMT CO2e) fluctuated. Average per- credit price increased from $20 to $80 in 2013, ranged between $20 and $30 in 2014 and 2015 under a frozen standard of 1%, rose above $100 in 2016 when the freeze was lifted, and exceeded $160 in summer 2018 as the California Air Resources Board (CARB) was in the process of adopting more stringent targets for 2030. LCFS amendments to be voted on at the September 26-27, 2018, CARB board meeting to take effect in 2019, include: a 2030 target of 20 percent CI reduction below 2010 levels; independent verification and monitoring of fuel pathway CI rating inputs; allowing alternative aviation fuel to generate program credits; a protocol for carbon capture and sequestration credits; credits for low- or zero-carbon intensity electricity use; requiring use of a portion of residential electricity credits to fund a statewide point-of-sale incentive program to electric vehicle (EV) buyers if such a program is approved by the California Public Utilities Commission; and introducing capacity credits for EV fast chargers and hydrogen fuel stations. The “capacity credit†provision would permit credit generation untied to current emissions reductions and favor particular fuels (those used in zero emission vehicles, which have no tailpipe emissions) for the first time. LCFS-like programs are in development in Canada (a Clean Fuel Standard to cover transportation, industry, and building sectors) and Brazil (the RenovaBio program focused on renewable liquid fuels and biogas). Neither plans to account for indirect land use change emissions in carbon intensity lifecycle analysis at program outset. Implementation of the Oregon and British Columbia LCFS programs is proceeding. Click here to see all the California LCFS status reviews |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–09–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt445815cd&r=all |
| By: | Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna; Qu, Songze; Ancev, Tihomir |
| Abstract: | Our paper investigates the effect of wind and utility-scale solar electricity generation on wholesale electricity prices in Australia over 2010-2018. We use both high frequency (30-minute) and daily datasets for the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). We estimate autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDL) to decompose the merit order effect of wind and utility-scale solar PV generation over time and across states. We find that an extra GW of dispatched wind capacity decreases the wholesale electricity price by 11 AUD/MWh at the time of generation, while solar capacity by 14 AUD/MWh. The daily merit order effect is lower. We show that the wind merit order effect has been increasing as a function of dispatched wind capacity over time. Despite of this, wholesale electricity prices in Australia have been increasing, predominantly driven by the increase in gas prices. Our findings further strengthen the evidence of the merit order effect of renewable energy sources, with important implications for the current energy policy debate in Australia. |
| Keywords: | electricity price; merit order effect; natural gas price; solar generation; wind generation. |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:syd:wpaper:2019-09&r=all |
| By: | Kurani, Kenneth S. |
| Abstract: | Ambitious global goals to improve energy efficiency and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are motivating a shift to electric vehicles (EVs), which include battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles. In 2018, the governor of California called for five million EVs to be on California’s roads by 2030. The International Energy Agency projects a global increase in EVs from 2 million today to 280 million by 2040. Creating sustained market growth to meet such goals presents numerous challenges to all EV stakeholders, including governments, the automobile industry, electricity suppliers, non-governmental organizations, and consumers. This policy brief summarizes the latest in a series of recurring surveys of consumers regarding their awareness and consideration of EVs. Two surveys of the population of car-owning households in California were conducted in February and June of 2017; sample sizes were 1,681 and 1,706, respectively. Several survey questions have been repeated over multiple years in similar samples, allowing comparison to earlier results. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Automobile ownership, Consumers, Electric vehicles, Market penetration, Market surveys, Plug-in hybrid vehicles, Policy analysis, Zero emission vehicles |
| Date: | 2019–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9435h15r&r=all |
| By: | Kurani, Kenneth S. |
| Abstract: | This is the first of two reports that gauges the extent to which car-owning households in California have considered purchasing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) (collectively, ZEVs). It explores which households have or have not considered ZEVs and, in those differences, seeks suggestions for how to promote greater consideration across an increased number and broader variety of households. The analysis is based on an on-line survey of car-owning households in California conducted in February 2017; the sample size was n = 1,681. The primary measure is the extent to which respondents have already considered a ZEV for their household: 4-of-5 car-owning households in California had given either no or nearly no consideration to ZEVs. Combined, less than 10 percent had given the highest two levels of consideration; active shopping or ownership. Other measures of awareness, name recognition, incentive knowledge, and driving experience were commensurately low. Relying on socio-economic and demographic variables to segment markets is unlikely to succeed. Variables describing respondents’ decision contexts and resources are important, especially whether respondents can reliably access electricity at a home parking location. General attitudes regarding air quality, the relative public health and environmental effects of electricity vs. gasoline, and experience with HEVs add further explanatory power. Ultimately though, variables specific to ZEVs are more strongly associated with ZEV consideration: interest in ZEV technology; familiarity with ZEVs including name recognition, driving experience, and recognizing and recalling PEV charging, assessments of ZEV charging/fueling duration, driving range, purchase price, safety and reliability; and, whether people know a ZEV owner. The modeling done here is of differences between people at one point in time not of changes to people over time. Still, the suggestion is that to increase ZEV market growth it is essential to increase peoples’ awareness and knowledge, providing them with the basis for informed assessments, and thus prompt serious consideration of ZEVs for their households. It should not be expected that all the people who have so far paid no or little attention will be quickly converted to ZEV shoppers and owners. However, there seems little prospect to grow the ZEV market unless the vast majority of car-owning households in California can be engaged in the transition to electric-drive. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Automobile ownership, Consumers, Electric vehicles, Market penetration, Market surveys, Plug-in hybrid vehicles, Policy analysis, Zero emission vehicles |
| Date: | 2018–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4gn9x59z&r=all |
| By: | Miller, Marshall; Wang, Qian; Fulton, Lew |
| Abstract: | This report presents the results of a project to develop a truck vehicle/fuel decision choice model for California and to use that model to make initial projections of truck sales by technology out to 2050. The report also describes the linkage of this model to a broader scenarios model of road transportation energy use in California to 2050. A separate report provides the authors detailed assumptions about truck technologies, fuels, and projections to 2050 that are inputs to this choice modeling effort. The need for low carbon trucking in California, as in other states and countries of the world, is outlined in IPCC reports and the Paris Agreement. An 80% reduction in energy-related CO2 emissions worldwide is targeted in that agreement. For trucks to contribute anywhere near this level of reduction, new, zero emissions technologies, such as electric and hydrogen fuel cell trucks, would need to be adopted at a large scale and at a rapid pace, both unprecedented for trucks anywhere in the world to date. Many truck models create new technology market penetration scenarios through minimizing cost or in an ad-hoc manner. This model utilizes a fleet decision choice process based on real world factors identified through discussions with trucking fleets. These factors include capital and operating costs, uncertainty (risk), model availability, refueling inconvenience, green PR (perceived benefit of environmentally beneficial technologies), and various incentives. The authors have developed a spreadsheet structured as a nested multinomial logit model that monetizes these factors to calculate a generalized cost. The authors have attempted to estimate the value of these factors to different types of fleets using a series of interviews, initial survey work, a truck choice workshop, and finally expert judgment and “basic logic†on how various factors might be valued now and in the future. The factors drive the choice analysis and are highly uncertain and likely highly variant across fleet types and even fleets within a type (early adopter, late adopter, in between), so the authors use a scenario approach to explore how this uncertainty could affect their results and projections. The authors created four scenarios and variants: 1) a business as usual (BAU), 2) a zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate requiring the market share of ZEVs to reach 25% by 2050 (ZEV scenario 1a), 3) the same scenario but with a low penalty assumed for refueling time and (ZEV scenario 1b) 4) a ZEV mandate requiring the market share of ZEVs to reach 50% by 2050 (ZEV scenario 2). The authors also look at some policies that could help to spur sales growth among ZEV technologies in order to reach specific targets. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2017–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1xt3k10x&r=all |
| By: | Jung, Heejung; Li, Chengguo |
| Abstract: | Exposure to particulate matter (PM) and pollutant gas (NOx) is associated with increased cardiopulmonary morbidity and mortality. Mobile source emissions contribute to PM and NOx emissions significantly in urban areas. Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) plays an important role to reduce emissions. While sales of electric vehicles has been increasing, electric vehicles have to overcome issues with charging time, driving range, and production/sales cost for more widespread market penetration. Hybrid electric vehicles have a potential to serve as a bridge technology between current internal combustion engine powered vehicles and zero emissions vehicles such as electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles. Current regulations require emissions to be tested on a chassis dynamometer. However, it is known that on-road emissions can be quite different from that those measured on regulatory driving cycles in the lab. In this study, emissions from two HEVs with different combustion technologies (gasoline direction injection vs port fuel injection) were compared using PEMS (portable emissions measurement system) and tailpipe sensors under cold weather conditions. The study has found the frequency and duration of re-ignition events vary depending on the type of HEV. Prius (PFI HEV) showed more frequent re-ignition events compared to Sonata (GDI HEV) for both city and highway driving conditions. Prius re-ignited almost every one minute while Sonata re-ignited every two minutes on average during the city driving condition. Reignition events affected emissions profile significantly during the city driving condition. As a result, Prius showed higher NOx emissions during the city driving condition while Sonata showed higher NOx emissions during the cold-cold start and highway driving condition. For PM emissions, PFI technology is known to make minimal amount of soot which is shown in the cold-cold start result while GDI technology is more prone to generating soot. This gap is reduced in city and highway driving condition due to more frequent re-ignition events of the PFI HEV (referring to Prius). Future studies should include more vehicles to understand whether the re-ignition events are vehicle specific or technology specific. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0c4842fp&r=all |
| By: | Zapata, Christina; Yang, Christopher; Yeh, Sonia; Ogden, Joan; Kleeman, Michael J. |
| Abstract: | California's goal to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to a level that is 80 % below 1990 levels by the year 2050 will require adoption of low-carbon energy sources across all economic sectors. In addition to reducing GHG emissions, shifting to fuels with lower carbon intensity will change concentrations of short-lived conventional air pollutants, including airborne particles with a diameter of less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Here we evaluate how business-as-usual (BAU) air pollution and public health in California will be transformed in the year 2050 through the adoption of low-carbon technologies, expanded electrification, and modified activity patterns within a low-carbon energy scenario (GHG-Step). Both the BAU and GHG-Step statewide emission scenarios were constructed using the energy–economic optimization model, CA-TIMES, that calculates the multi-sector energy portfolio that meets projected energy supply and demand at the lowest cost, while also satisfying scenario-specific GHG emissions constraints. Corresponding criteria pollutant emissions for each scenario were then spatially allocated at 4 km resolution to support air quality analysis in different regions of the state. Meteorological inputs for the year 2054 were generated under a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 future climate. Annual-average PM2.5 and O3 concentrations were predicted using the modified emissions and meteorology inputs with a regional chemical transport model. In the final phase of the analysis, mortality (total deaths) and mortality rate (deaths per 100 000) were calculated using established exposure-response relationships from air pollution epidemiology combined with simulated annual-average PM2.5 and O3 exposure. Net emissions reductions across all sectors are −36 % for PM0.1 mass, −3.6 % for PM2.5 mass, −10.6 % for PM2.5 elemental carbon, −13.3 % for PM2.5 organic carbon, −13.7 % for NO x , and −27.5 % for NH3. Predicted deaths associated with air pollution in 2050 dropped by 24–26 % in California (1537–2758 avoided deaths yr−1) in the climate-friendly 2050 GHG-Step scenario, which is equivalent to a 54–56 % reduction in the air pollution mortality rate (deaths per 100 000) relative to 2010 levels. These avoided deaths have an estimated value of USD 11.4–20.4 billion yr−1 based on the present-day value of a statistical life (VSL) equal to USD 7.6 million. The costs for reducing California GHG emissions 80 % below 1990 levels by the year 2050 depend strongly on numerous external factors such as the global price of oil. Best estimates suggest that meeting an intermediate target (40 % reduction in GHG emissions by the year 2030) using a non-optimized scenario would reduce personal income by USD 4.95 billion yr−1 (−0.15 %) and lower overall state gross domestic product by USD 16.1 billion yr−1 (−0.45 %). The public health benefits described here are comparable to these cost estimates, making a compelling argument for the adoption of low-carbon energy in California, with implications for other regions in the United States and across the world. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–04–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2wh1k903&r=all |
| By: | Yang, Christopher; Zakerinia, Saleh; Ramea, Kalai; Miller, Marshall |
| Abstract: | Transportation is a major emitter of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States accounting for 27% of the country’s emissions, second only to the electricity sector. As a result, reducing GHG emissions are essential for mitigating some of the most damaging potential impacts associated with climate change and because of the importance and relative size of the transportation sector, it would need to contribute a significant amount of emissions reduction. This report describes the development and use of an U.S. energy system optimization model (US-TIMES) in order to analyze the reductions in GHG emissions that can come about through policy targets. These policy targets induce technology investments and operation in order to satisfy the demand for energy services and environmental policy constraints (notably GHG emission targets). The model development focused on two key areas within the transportation sector, light-duty vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles. In the light-duty space, we incorporated consumer choice elements into the energy system optimization framework through increasing consumer heterogeneity and adding non-monetary decision factors such as risk and fueling inconvenience. For heavy-duty vehicles, we adopt a segmentation approach and update vehicle cost and performance assumptions from our recent work. The model is used to project scenarios for low carbon futures from a reference scenario all the way to an 80% GHG reduction target. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Carbon taxes, Electric vehicles, Emissions trading, Energy consumption, Energy resources, Greenhouse gases, Heavy duty vehicles, Hybrid vehicles, Motor fuels, Policy analysis, Pollutants |
| Date: | 2018–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9cb5t3k4&r=all |
| By: | Sun, Yongling; Delucchi, Mark A.; Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia L.; Ogden, Joan M. |
| Abstract: | Estimating the producer surplus – the revenue above the average long-run cost – is an important part of social cost-benefit analyses of changes in petroleum use. This paper estimates the producer surplus associated with changes in gasoline fuel use in the United States, and then applies the estimates of producer surplus to two kinds of social cost-benefit analyses related to petroleum use: (1) estimating the wealth transfer from consumers to producers as a result of policies that affect oil use and oil imports to the US, and (2) comparing the actual average cost of gasoline with the average cost of environmentally superior alternatives to gasoline, such as hydrogen. Our results show that a 50% reduction in gasoline use in the US in 2004 would have saved the US $72 billion in producer surplus payments to foreign oil producers. Applying our estimates to the comparison of the social lifetime cost of hydrogen vehicles versus gasoline vehicles, we find that inconsistently counting producer surplus from a US national perspective while counting climate change damages from a global perspective can overstate the present value lifetime costs of gasoline vehicles by $2,200 to $9,800 per vehicle. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, oil, marginal costs, producer surplus, gasoline, wealth transfer, drilling costs, exploratory wells, development wells |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt0591r5x3&r=all |
| By: | Laurence J. Kotlikoff; Felix Kubler; Andrey Polbin; Jeffrey D. Sachs; Simon Scheidegger |
| Abstract: | Carbon taxation has been studied primarily in social planner or infinitely lived agent models, which trade off the welfare of future and current generations. Such frameworks obscure the potential for carbon taxation to produce a generational win-win. This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic 55-period, OLG model to calculate the carbon tax policy delivering the highest uniform welfare gain to all generations. The OLG framework, with its selfish generations, seems far more natural for studying climate damage. Our model features coal, oil, and gas, each extracted subject to increasing costs, a clean energy sector, technical and demographic change, and Nordhaus (2017)’s temperature/damage functions. Our model’s optimal uniform welfare increasing (UWI) carbon tax starts at $30 tax, rises annually at 1.5 percent and raises the welfare of all current and future generations by 0.73 percent on a consumption-equivalent basis. Sharing efficiency gains evenly requires, however, taxing future generations by as much as 8.1 percent and subsidizing early generations by as much as 1.2 percent of lifetime consumption. Without such redistribution (the Nordhaus “optimum”), the carbon tax constitutes a win-lose policy with current generations experiencing an up to 0.84 percent welfare loss and future generations experiencing an up to 7.54 percent welfare gain. With a six-times larger damage function, the optimal UWI initial carbon tax is $70, again rising annually at 1.5 percent. This policy raises all generations’ welfare by almost 5 percent. However, doing so requires levying taxes on and giving transfers to future and current generations ranging up to 50.1 percent and 10.3 percent of their lifetime consumption. Delaying carbon policy, for 20 years, reduces efficiency gains roughly in half. |
| JEL: | F0 F20 H0 H2 H3 J20 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25760&r=all |
| By: | Kim, Daejin; Guin, Angshuman; Rodgers, Michael O; Guensler, Randall |
| Abstract: | Since heavy-duty truck operations can significantly affect traffic congestion, especially on road grade, the creation of exclusive lanes for trucks has been viewed as a potential alternative to reduce congestion delay, fuel consumption, and emissions. However, few studies have rigorously evaluated the effectiveness of truck-only lanes in achieving these benefits. This study demonstrates a model framework that combines a microscopic traffic simulation with emissions and microscale dispersion models to quantify the potential impacts of truck-only lanes on fuel consumption, emissions, and near-road pollutant concentrations. As a case study, the framework was used to evaluate a proposed $2 billion project to construct 40-miles of truck-only lanes on Interstate 75 (I-75) between Atlanta and Macon, Georgia (USA). The findings of this study suggest that truck-only lanes could significantly improve the traffic flow, and reduce energy, emissions, and pollutant concentrations. The research team expects that the extensive simulation results of this study help to understand the performance of truck-only lanes on a large-scale network with a heavy mixture of truck and general purpose lane traffic. The methodology and framework developed in this study can be effectively and efficiently applied to a wide variety of scenarios to evaluate the environmental impacts of other transportation projects under various conditions. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Air quality, Fuel consumption, Genetic algorithms, Greenhouse gases, Pollutants, Traffic flow, Traffic models, Traffic simulation, Truck lanes, Trucks |
| Date: | 2018–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt56m5b78f&r=all |
| By: | Davis, Steven J; Lewis, Nathan S.; Shaner, Matthew; Aggarwal, Sonia; Arent, Doug; Azevedo, Inês; Benson, Sally; Bradley, Thomas; Brouwer, Jack; Chiang, Yet-Ming; Clack, Christopher T.M.; Cohen, Armond; Doig, Stephen; Edmonds, Jae; Fennell, Paul; Field, Christopher B.; Hannegan, Bryan; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Hoffert, Martin I.; Ingersoll, Eric; Jaramillo, Paulina; Lackner, Klaus S.; Mach, Katharine J.; Mastrandrea, Michael; Ogden, Joan M.; Peterson, Per F.; Sanchez, Daniel L.; Sperling, Daniel; Stagner, Joseph; Trancik, Jessika E.; Yang, Chi-Jen; Caldeira, Ken |
| Abstract: | Models show that to avert dangerous levels of climate change, global carbon dioxide emissions must fall to zero later this century. Most of these emissions arise from energy use. Davis et al. review what it would take to achieve decarbonization of the energy system. Some parts of the energy system are particularly difficult to decarbonize, including aviation, long-distance transport, steel and cement production, and provision of a reliable electricity supply. Current technologies and pathways show promise, but integration of now-discrete energy sectors and industrial processes is vital to achieve minimal emissions. Net emissions of CO2 by human activities - including not only energy services and industrial production but also land use and agriculture - must approach zero in order to stabilize global mean temperature. Energy services such as light-duty transportation, heating, cooling, and lighting may be relatively straightforward to decarbonize by electrifying and generating electricity from variable renewable energy sources (such as wind and solar) and dispatchable ("on-demand") nonrenewable sources (including nuclear energy and fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage). However, other energy services essential to modern civilization entail emissions that are likely to be more difficult to fully eliminate. These difficult-to-decarbonize energy services include aviation, long-distance transport, and shipping; production of carbon-intensive structural materials such as steel and cement; and provision of a reliable electricity supply that meets varying demand. Moreover, demand for such services and products is projected to increase substantially over this century. The long-lived infrastructure built today, for better or worse, will shape the future. Here, we review the special challenges associated with an energy system that does not add any CO2 to the atmosphere (a net-zero emissions energy system). We discuss prominent technological opportunities and barriers for eliminating and/or managing emissions related to the difficult-to-decarbonize services; pitfalls in which near-term actions may make it more difficult or costly to achieve the net-zero emissions goal; and critical areas for research, development, demonstration, and deployment. It may take decades to research, develop, and deploy these new technologies. DOI Link: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aas9793 |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–06–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7qv6q35r&r=all |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan PhD |
| Abstract: | Shared mobility with pooled rides is the linchpin for leveraging vehicle automation and electrification to reduce congestion and emissions and to create livable urban communities. The sharing of rides is older than horse-and-buggy travel. Recent innovations make sharing easier, more convenient, and more efficient. Innovative mobility services premised on pooling can lower travel costs, mitigate congestion, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. They also offer travelers more mobility choices between the traditional bookends of auto ownership and public transit. While the realm of shared mobility is vast, including shared bikes, scooters, and cars, the focus of this chapter is on pooled services—placing more people in a single vehicle. Doing so unlocks huge economic, social, and environmental benefits. The motivation for pooling is simple. First and foremost is economics. Cars are among the most underused capital assets in our economy, sitting empty 95 percent of the time and carrying one individual much of the remaining time. If a car were used more than 5 percent of the time, and if that car carried two, three, or four passengers, the cost per rider would drop dramatically. The benefits go well beyond cheaper mobility. Because the car would be carrying multiple riders who might otherwise be driving, there would also be fewer vehicles on the road, less parking space required, less air pollution, and reduced energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Given that the world has more than 1 billion cars and light trucks, the potential for major reductions in pollution and greenhouse gases is huge—in the United States and also most other countries. The transition to a future where many rides are shared is now possible. What remains to be seen is whether and under what conditions people will be willing to make the transition. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, shared mobility, ride-hailing, pooling |
| Date: | 2018–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt46p6n2sk&r=all |
| By: | Jianwei Xing; Benjamin Leard; Shanjun Li |
| Abstract: | The emissions reductions from the adoption of a new transportation technology depend on the emissions from the new technology relative to those from the displaced technology. We evaluate the emissions reductions from electric vehicles (EVs) by identifying which vehicles would have been purchased had EVs not been available. We do so by estimating a random coefficients discrete choice model of new vehicle demand and simulating counterfactual sales with EVs no longer subsidized or removed from the new vehicle market. Our results suggest that vehicles that EVs replace are relatively fuel-efficient: EVs replace gasoline vehicles with an average fuel economy of 4.2 mpg above the fleet-wide average and 12 percent of them replace hybrid vehicles. Federal income tax credits resulted in a 29 percent increase in EV sales, but 70 percent of the credits were obtained by households that would have bought an EV without the credits. By simulating alternative subsidy designs, we demonstrate the distributional and efficiency outcomes across different policy alternatives. |
| JEL: | Q4 Q48 Q55 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25771&r=all |
| By: | Xu, Xiaodan; Liu, Haobing; Passmore, Reid; Patrick, Tyler; Gbologah, Franklin; Rodgers, Michael O.; Guensler, Randall |
| Abstract: | The Fuel and Emissions Calculator (FEC) is an operating-mode-based, life-cycle energy and emissions modeling tool developed by Georgia Institute of Technology researchers. The primary purpose of the FEC is to assist fleet owners and managers, regulatory agencies, and policy analysts in assessing the energy and emissions impacts of fleet alternatives. The FEC’s modeling approach estimates emissions as a function of engine load, which in turn is a function of vehicle operating parameters, allowing modelers to account for local on-road operating mode conditions as model inputs. The functional modules are embedded in an Excel spreadsheet platform for all current model versions. The open platform allows users to see all input data and every calculation, which makes the model transparent and accessible for most users. With FEC Version 2.0 and Version 3.0, the research team also created an online Python version of the model. The Python version enhances model performance and provides functionality for advanced users who may wish to link the FEC with other modeling tools, such as travel demand or simulation models. The first Fuel and Emissions Calculator (Version 1.0), known as ‘FEC for transit fleets,’ was originally developed by Georgia Tech researchers in 2013-2014 for transit bus, shuttle bus, and rail systems (ORNL and Georgia Tech, 2014). The first major update of the model was finished in 2016 (FEC Version 2.0). FEC Version 2.0 expanded the initial FEC to include a heavy-duty truck calculator and an online Python version of the transit fleet model (transit bus and shuttle bus). Version 2.0 also significantly improved the model performance by incorporating the latest emission rates, advancing the methodologies, and fixing some errors. The research team completed the next major updates in 2018, releasing FEC Version 3.0. Version 3.0 is the “FEC for all transportation modes†, with mode-specific calculators for light-duty passenger vehicles, buses, heavy-duty trucks, and rail. This report first summarizes the FEC Version model’s main features in Version 3.0. The generic methodology that is applied to all transportation modes is introduced in Chapter 2, which includes modules for scenario setting, energy consumption, on-road emission rates, life-cycle assessment, and cost-effectiveness. The model specifications for individual transportation modes are introduced in Chapter 3, where case study examples are provided to help users prepare customized analysis of their own fleets. The key considerations for establishing the online FEC are discussed in Chapter 4. Ongoing work to verify model elements and calibrate the FEC is introduced in Chapter 5. Current research achievements and future work to update and improve the FEC are provided in the final Chapter. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Computer models, Computer programs, Fuel consumption, Life cycle analysis, Pollutants, Public transit, Vehicle fleets, Web applications |
| Date: | 2018–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt59z12905&r=all |
| By: | Kurani, Kenneth S. |
| Abstract: | This is the second of two reports gauging the extent to which car-owning households in California have considered purchasing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles, and fuel cell electric vehicles collectively, zero emission vehicles. It seeks insights into how to promote greater consideration across an increased number and broader variety of households. The analysis is based on two on-line surveys of car-owning households in California. The first was conducted in February (n = 1,681) and June 2017 (n = 1,706). Analysis of the February 2017 data is presented in the companion State of the Market Report 1. Nothing in the results for the June data contradicts the general findings from February. New results from additional analysis of the role of biological sex/social gender is based on a recommendation in the first State of the market report. The lower likeliness that female respondents have considered zero emission vehicles is solely for fuel cell electric vehicles. There appear to be some slight differences in how some explanatory variables are correlated to consideration between males and females: for females, it matters more that they live in a household that has flexible vehicle assignments; for males, it matters more whether they claim familiarity with internal combustion engine vehicles and experience with zero emission vehicles. Still, these differences are marginal and do not contravene the overall finding that across all respondents—female and male—few have paid much attention to any kind of zero emission vehicle. Zero emission vehicle consideration is a multi-faceted concept and there are several ways in which it can be initiated: personal contact with zero emission vehicle drivers; making visible the signs of the transition, i.e., teaching people which vehicles they see on the road are zero emission vehicles, making visible not merely of specific charger locations but a growing charging network, and marketing the fact incentives exist to buy and use zero emission vehicles; and expanding the number and variety of opportunities to gain direct experience of zero emission vehicles. In doing so, consider differential possibilities to provide targeted messages at the majority of car-owning households who are not opposed to the idea of zero emission vehicles, but simply have paid them no attention. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, zero emission vehicles, plug-in hybrid, electric vehicles, consumers |
| Date: | 2018–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8rp9h6fb&r=all |
| By: | Ritter, Hendrik; Runkel, Marco; Zimmermann, Karl |
| Abstract: | We analyze a n-country, two-period Nash tax competition game to evaluate Sinn’s proposal to use capital income taxation as a means to decelerate fossil fuel ex- traction (Sinn, 2008). The interest and discount rate is determined on a perfectly competitive consumer loan market on which the resource extractor acts as the loan supplier. Our first result is that, with perfectly identical countries, tax rates are inefficiently low in the Nash equilibrium of the tax competition game since the tax distortion and the environmental externality are not taken into account. The sec- ond result is that, in an asymmetric setting with resource-exporting and -importing countries, the tax can turn into a subsidy in the exporting country. Moreover, we show that partial cooperation of the importers is always beneficial to them, but can be harmful to the exporter. Finally, we identify cases where full cooperation is self-enforcing. |
| Keywords: | Capital taxation,Green paradox,Non-renewable resources |
| JEL: | H21 H23 Q38 Q54 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:195172&r=all |
| By: | Kendall, Alissa; Ambrose, Hanjiro; Maroney, Erik; Deng, Huijing |
| Abstract: | In the United States, the transportation sector is responsible for 36% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with light-duty vehicles (LDVs) comprising the largest contribution. Globally, transportation is responsible for approximately 24% of energy-related GHG emissions, of which road transport constitutes over 70%. In addition to other measures, rapid and extensive deployment of renewable and energy-efficient technologies is seen as a crucial intervention necessary to reduce transportation sector emissions in coming decades. This report documents the cumulative results of the project and presents both published findings and ongoing research. To understand the potential for developing and implementing life cycle-based policies for LDVs we must first develop the appropriate modeling tools, and we must understand how LCA or life cycle thinking has been implemented in policy contexts in the past. Thus, the rest of this report is divided into sections that summarize the work conducted on (i) developing LCA sub-models that will be integrated in the coupled system dynamics and LCA model, (ii) a review of the global market for PEVs with a focus on U.S. and China and implications for materials and manufacturing, (iii) a review of LCA and life cycle thinking in policy in the United States and around the world, and implications for life cycle-based vehicle policy, and (iv) the development of a new life cycle inventory to demonstrate the feasibility of a summary of findings from a Transportation Research Board (TRB) workshop on this topic conducted in January 2017. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Electric batteries, Electric power plants, Electric vehicles, Exhaust gases, Greenhouse gases, Life cycle analysis, Manufacturing, Plug-in hybrid vehicles, Regulations, Sales, Standards |
| Date: | 2018–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt49g4h212&r=all |
| By: | Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Hallegatte, Stephane |
| Abstract: | Countries have pledged to stabilize global warming at a 1.5 to 2°C increase. Either target requires reaching net zero emissions before the end of the century, which implies a major transformation of the economic system. This paper reviews the literature on how policymakers can design climate policies and their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to reach zero-net emissions before the end of the century in a socially and politically-acceptable manner. To get the ambition right, policymakers can use sectoral roadmaps with targets and indicators that track progress towards zero emissions (e.g. regarding renewable power or reforestation). Indeed, monitoring economy-wide emissions reductions alone would not ensure that short-term action contributes meaningfully to the long-term decarbonization goal. To get the political economy right, climate policies can be designed so that they contribute to non-climate objectives and create coalitions of supporters. For instance, revenues from carbon taxes can fund social assistance and infrastructure investment, while reducing tax evasion and informality. To minimize social and economic disruptions and avoid stranded assets, policymakers can start with a low carbon price level and use complementary policies. Designed at the sector level, complementary policies such as performance standards or feebates for cars, building norms, or moratoriums on new coal power plants can be negotiated in partnership with local stakeholders and trigger a transition to zero carbon without creating disruptive stranded assets. |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:8317&r=all |
| By: | Gbologah, Franklin E.; Rodgers, Michael O.; Li, Hanyan "Ann" |
| Abstract: | The cost of fuel represents a major portion of the costs of operating on-road heavy-duty vehicles (HDV). Over the next couple of decades, the total energy demand from the HDV sector will likely increase due to forecasted growth in freight demand in many global markets, including the United States, and much of this energy will continue to be provided by fossil fuels. Therefore, carbon dioxide emissions from the HDV sector are also expected to increase in the absence of effective mitigating measures to reduce the sectors reliance on fossil fuels. Along with other fuel-saving technologies, the United States Environmental Protection Agency identified the use of Low Rolling Resistance (LRR) tires as an effective method of reducing fuel consumption. It is estimated that LRR tires can improve fuel economy in HDV by about 10 percent. However, adoption of LRR faces many barriers and the most fundamental of these barriers relate to potential performance uncertainties under real-world operating conditions. Previous published decision support tools developed to help fleet operators and other stakeholders estimate the fuel-savings from LRR tires have been found to have limited accuracy due to inherent transient speed profiles in real-world operating cycles. In this study, we develop a tool to predict the fleet-wide fuel-saving benefits from low rolling resistance tires. Unlike previous studies, the developed tool is applicable to both stabilized speed operations and transient speed operations. The tool is based on empirical models that estimate the fuel consumption contribution from tires as a function of vehicle payload, aerodynamic drag, road grade, duration of acceleration, duration of deceleration and, and road facility type (freeway, major arterial, and minor arterial/local road). We limited the scope of the developed tool to tractor-trailers in the U.S. heavy-duty vehicle market, because the United States has the second largest HDV market in the world and tractor-trailers account for the largest share of the market. The tool was developed with data generated by simulating real-world heavy-duty vehicle operating cycles with Autonomie®, the state-of-the-art model for automotive control-system design, and simulating vehicle energy consumption and performance. Autonomie® is a preferred vehicle simulation tool of the United States Department of Energy. The primary purpose of the Tool to Predict Fleet-Wide Heavy-Duty Vehicle Fuel-Saving from Low Rolling Resistance Tires is to assist fleet operators, regulatory agencies, and policy analysts in assessing the fuel consumption savings from low rolling resistance tires. To facilitate ease-of-use by stakeholders, the statistical empirical models are embedded in a Microsoft Excel® spreadsheet. Fleet managers can customize the tool to their specific fleet and the tool is designed to inform fleet operators about the benefits and costs of making low rolling resistance tire investments. In addition to fuel consumption estimates, the spreadsheet tool further estimates related emission reductions. In the future, this tool can be extended to other vehicle segments. The spreadsheet algorithms can also be developed into a web-based computer program in the future to facilitate online use of the tool. The HDV Low Rolling Resistance Tire Fuel and Emission Reduction Calculator is available to download as a spreadsheet tool here: http://transportation.ce.gatech.edu/node/95 View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Data analysis, Fleet management, Fuel consumption, Heavy duty vehicles, Rolling resistance, Simulation, Tires, Tractor trailer combinations, Traffic speed, Vehicle fleets |
| Date: | 2018–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4wg9g21f&r=all |
| By: | Turrentine, Thomas; Tal, Gil; Rapson, David |
| Abstract: | California is one of the first markets in the world to have a significant secondary market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), which includes both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). This study examines the status of the nascent secondary PEV market in California. The authors examine who purchases these vehicles and how used PEVs are utilized. They examine the role of PEV purchase incentives both via surveys of used PEV buyers and through econometric analysis of detailed micro data. Results suggests that California PEV buyers have significantly higher incomes than the average household. If California seeks to broaden the used PEV market, lower income buyers must be brought into the market. On this count, the used PEV market appears to be beneficial, attracting buyers with slightly lower incomes than in the new PEV market. Results also indicate that used PHEV owners (and, more precisely, short-range used PEV owners) are charging their vehicles less than they could. In addition, results show that early used PEV buyers have significant knowledge gaps, such as being unaware of new PEV purchase incentives, which reduce their ability to compare price options. Overall, the early used PEV buyers were satisfied with the PEV technology and would redo their purchase or buy another PEV. This bodes well for the future of the PEV market. High occupancy vehicle stickers were a powerful motivator for a subset of PHEV used buyers, perhaps due to the lack of new stickers being available at the time of and preceding the survey. Our econometric analysis shows that the presence of new BEV purchase subsidies correlates with a small net outflow of used PEVs to states that do not offer new BEV subsidies. If this modest exit of PEVs grows overtime, it could make it more difficult to achieve state level environmental goals, such as local pollution abatement or state-level GHG reduction targets. Our analysis finds that PEV sales to minority groups show no clear signs of market access discrimination in the new or used PEV markets. Finally, our findings show that PHEV and BEV markets and consumers operate differently from each other, suggesting the need to be careful about treating them identically in analysis and policy-formation. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8wj5b0hn&r=all |
| By: | Kassi, Diby François; Sun, Gang; Gnangoin, Yobouet Thierry; Edjoukou, Akadje Jean Roland; Assamoi, Guy Roland |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the asymmetrical relationship between financial development, energy consumption and economic growth in twenty-one (21) sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1990Q1 to 2014Q4. We used the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) framework and asymmetrical causality tests to examine the relationship between the variables. First, the country-level analysis reveals that there is asymmetrical cointegration between the variables in some countries and mixed results of the causal effects of financial development and energy consumption on economic growth across countries. Second, the results of the panel data analysis confirm the asymmetrical cointegration in the SSA region, especially in lower-middle-income countries than in upper-middle-income countries. We find that positive changes in energy consumption significantly reduce economic growth, contrary to the negative changes in the long-term. Besides, positive shocks to financial development favor more economic growth than the adverse shocks in the long-term in the SSA region. However, financial development hurts economic growth, contrary to energy consumption in the short-term. Finally, the results show bidirectional causality between positive changes in energy consumption and economic growth, but unidirectional causality running from negative changes in energy consumption to economic growth in the SSA region. There is also bidirectional causality between positive and negative shocks to financial development and economic growth in SSA region, but mixed results across lower-income countries and upper-middle-income countries. Therefore, our study suggests that energy-saving policies such as renewable energies can be implemented in the SSA region to promote sustainable development. In addition, policy-makers should adopt an efficient allocation of the credits to the private sector supporting productive investments. They should also pay attention to the asymmetrical relationship between financial development, energy consumption and economic growth in most SSA countries in the conduct of economic policies. |
| Keywords: | Financial development; Energy use; Economic growth; NARDL; Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| JEL: | C13 G20 Q43 |
| Date: | 2019–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93462&r=all |
| By: | Guensler, Randall; Liu, Haobing; Xu, Xiaodan; Lu, Hongyu; Rodgers, Michael O. |
| Abstract: | The MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model was developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) to estimate emissions from on-road and off-road vehicles in the United States. The MOVES model represents a significant improvement over the older MOBILE series of modes, primarily because emission rates are now truly modal in nature. Emission rates are now a function of power surrogates, which depend on speed and acceleration. Traffic simulation model outputs and smartphone GPS data can provide second-by-second vehicle activity data in time and space, including vehicle speed and acceleration. Coupling high-resolution vehicle activity data with appropriate MOVES emission rates further advances research efforts designed to assess the environmental impacts of transportation design and operation strategies. However, the MOVES interface is complicated, and the structure of input variables and algorithms involved in running MOVES to assess operational improvements makes analyses cumbersome and time consuming. The MOVES interface also makes it difficult to assess complicated transportation networks and to undertake analyses of large-scale systems that are dynamic in nature. The MOVES-Matrix system developed by the research team can be used to perform emissions modeling activities in a fraction of the time it takes to perform even one single individual MOVES run. The MOVES-Matrix approach involves running the MOVES model iteratively, across all potential input variable combinations, and using the resulting multidimensional array of pre-run MOVES outputs in emissions modeling. The research team configured MOVES to run on a distributed computing cluster, obtaining MOVES energy consumption and emission rate outputs for each vehicle class, model year, and operating condition, by calendar year, fuel composition (summer, winter, and transition fuels), local Inspection/Maintenance (I/M) program, meteorology, and other variables of interest. The team ran MOVES 146,853 times to generate the on-road emission rate matrices for Atlanta. More than 90 billion emission rates populate the primary output matrix, but implementation tools developed by the team generate matrix subsets for specific applications to speed up the analytical processes. In 2017-2018, the team developed MOVES-Matrix 2.0, which now integrates engine start, soak, evaporative, and truck hoteling emissions. The resulting emission rate matrices allow users to link emission rates to assess big data projects (such as regional emissions for emission inventory development) and to support near-real-time evaluations of changes in emissions for large, dynamic transportation systems. In the case study applications performed by the team, emission rate generation with MOVES-Matrix is 200-times faster than using the batch mode of MOVES graphic user interface in the same computer environment and the process predicts exactly the same emissions result. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Computer programs, Energy consumption, Greenhouse gases, Matrices (Mathematics), Pollutants, Simulation, Traffic data, Traffic simulation, Travel patterns |
| Date: | 2018–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3xp5z35t&r=all |
| By: | Miller, Marshall; Raju, Arun S.K.; Roy, Partho Sarothi |
| Abstract: | An evaluation of renewable hydrogen production technologies anticipated to be available in the short, mid- and long-term timeframes was conducted. Renewable conversion pathways often rely on a combination of renewable and fossil energy sources, with the primary conversion step relying on a completely renewable source and the auxiliary steps using a more readily available energy mix such as grid electricity. The conversion technologies can be broadly classified into four categories based on the primary conversion mechanism: thermal processes, electrolytic processes, photolytic processes, and biochemical processes. Based on anticipated technology readiness, water electrolysis and biogas reforming pathways will be available in the near term whereas biomass gasification and bio-derived liquids reforming pathways are expected to be available in the mid-term. Photolytic and dark fermentation approaches are still in the research stage and must go through significant development and demonstration. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2017–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3pn8s961&r=all |
| By: | Kurani, Kenneth S; Caperello, Nicolette; TyreeHageman, Jennifer |
| Abstract: | Evidence from the early market for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) indicates fewer were being purchased (or leased) by women than would be expected based on women’s participation in all new vehicle transactions. The ratio of male-to-female applicants for California’s Clean Vehicle Rebate (CVR) averaged approximately three males for every female from early 2011 to mid-2015; the ratio for all new vehicle transactions is approximately one-to-one. Research on early PEV owners indicated that for their many similarities, females and males talked about their PEVs in ways that suggest female PEV drivers’ experiences may carry less influence to shape the future of PEVs and charging infrastructure than males’. First, there were simply fewer female PEV owners to provide feedback. Second, females were more likely than males to talk about how they adapted to the present capabilities of PEVs while male respondents were more likely to talk about PEVs in terms of testing their limits. For example, female PEV drivers were more likely to talk about how they used the available charging infrastructure; male respondents were more likely to point to where and how to extend infrastructure. This study extends the analysis from early PEV buyers to the population of new-car buyers (of whom the vast majority own gasoline powered internal combustion engine and hybrid electric vehicles (ICEVs and HEVs)) in California. The results presented here are based on data from an on-line survey of new-car buyers in California conducted at the end of 2014 and subsequent inhome interviews with a subset of survey respondents in early 2015. The overall conclusion is that among new-car buyers, female and male respondents share similar distributions of interest in the next new vehicle for their household being a PEV or fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV). For no electric-drive vehicle type did the male-to-female ratio approach that seen in the actual early market for PEVs. Under conditions that most closely correspond to the availability of incentives at the time of the survey, 22% of males and 21% of females express an interest in a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) (a ratio of 1.05 males for every female) and 12% of males and 10% of females express an interest in a battery electric vehicle (BEV) (ratio of 1.20). The difference is greater for FCEVs for which the ratio is 1.76 males for every female. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0nb2m911&r=all |
| By: | Park, Chan Seung; Roy, Partho |
| Abstract: | A portable, economic and reliable sensor for the Natural Gas (NG) fuel quality has been developed. Both Wobbe Index (WI) and Methane Indexes (MI) as well as inert gas content (inert%) of the NG fuel can be measured in real time within 5% accuracy. This sensor is targeting to be used in any equipment that involves NG combustion including NG vehicle, boiler, building HVAC, various consumer level gas appliance and Variable Natural Gas Vehicle (VNGV). The VNGV is an NG vehicle that can operate on any arbitrary mixture of CH4 and CO2, thus allowing the use of Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) including biogas for transportation without comprehensive gas cleanup/upgrading. The technology behind is to predict the “Value of Interests†(WI, MI and inert%) by the signals from easily “Measurable Physical Properties†(such as thermal conductivity, temperature, etc..), as shown in the figure. Prediction of “Value of Interest†by data mining (esp. Multivariate Analysis and/or Artificial Neural Network) is the key idea of the concept. This technology is non-invasive, rugged, and small in size promising to overcome limitations and shortcomings such as bulky size and intrusive nature of conventional measurement technology. VNGV technology will enable widespread use of RNG as a transportation fuel, resulting in significant reductions in GHG emissions in the transportation sector. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2017–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2927d8hr&r=all |
| By: | Hardman, Scott; Plotz, Patrick; Tal, Gil; Axsen, Jonn; Figenbaum, Erik; Karlsson, Sten; Refa, Nazir; Sprei, Frances; Williams, Brett; Whitehead, Jake; Witkamp, Bert |
| Abstract: | Key Takeaways 1. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have an important role in the electrifi cation of passenger transportation. Long-range PHEVs not only are a transitional technology. They also are an enabling technology that can encourage more consumers to adopt electric vehicles. 2. The electric range of PHEVs has a signifi cant impact on electric vehicle miles traveled. PHEVs with electric range of at least 60km (37 miles (EPA Range)) have a similar ability to electrify travel as short-range battery electric vehicles (BEVs). 3. Assuming the goal of policymakers is to increase electric vehicle miles traveled, policy support should correspond directly to electric driving range of both PHEVs and BEVs. Short-range PHEVs should receive less policy support; long-range PHEVs and BEVs should receive more policy support. 4. Consumer research in several countries shows that mainstream consumers tend to be more attracted to PHEVs than to BEVs, however many consumers are unaware of how a PHEV diff ers from a BEV. Consumers and car dealerships need to be educated about PHEVs, their benefi ts, and the importance of charging the vehicles. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, electric vehicles, policy, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles |
| Date: | 2019–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3w53q2h9&r=all |
| By: | Jenn, Alan |
| Abstract: | Incentives for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are typically designed to encourage broad consumer adoption of the new technology. However, maximizing the emissions benefits from electrifying the transportation sector also requires incentives targeted at stakeholders with high travel intensity, i.e., those with particularly high passenger occupancy and/or vehicle-miles traveled (VMT). This policy brief focuses on one such class of stakeholders: transportation network companies (TNCs) such as Uber and Lyft. It examines empirical data of electric vehicle use in TNCs and discusses research findings on the potential impacts of electrifying TNCs. It also raises important considerations for the development of future policy. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, electric vehicles, vehicle miles traveled, incentives, plug-in electric vehicles, transportation network companies, ridesharing |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt12s554kd&r=all |
| By: | Hardman, Scott PhD; Jang, Nora; Garas, Dahlia |
| Abstract: | The survey project described here is intended to be the beginning of a multi-year project on the effectiveness of various activities in growing consumer interest in purchasing BEVs in the Sacramento region. This survey in Sacramento shows that engagement in PEVs is moderate, based on the following results: 50% of respondents had seen some PEV-related advertising, mostly on television or in print media; 47% were aware of the California Clean Vehicle Rebate, and 46% aware of the federal tax credit; 40% could correctly name a PHEV, and 50% a BEV; 25% had sought out information on PEVs, mostly through the internet or speaking to car salespeople, friends, or family. Compared to respondents to a 2014 state-wide survey, a higher percentage of respondents to this 2018 Sacramento survey had seen charging stations, and a similar percentage, 3.3%, had actively shopped for a BEV. Ordinal logistic regression modelling indicated that the following factors were associated with having considered purchasing a BEV: being enthusiastic about PEVs, knowing someone by name who owns a PEV, having sought out information on PEVs, knowing how to refuel a PEV, and being familiar with the vehicles. Considering a BEV purchase was not associated with: having seen advertising, being aware of ride-and-drive events, having been in a PEV, having seen chargers, awareness of incentives, or the density of PEVs or charging stations near the respondent’s home. Results suggest that respondents who are interested in BEVs are a self-selecting group whose interest is not the result of promotional activities. Existing efforts to engage the general population not yet had a significant impact on respondents thinking about purchasing a BEV. Future follow-up surveys will be able to track changes in respondent awareness, the impact of various advertising and awareness campaigns, and growing consumer engagement in PEVs over time. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Plug-in hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, surveys, incentives, automobile ownership, policy analysis |
| Date: | 2019–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2zc5c6hn&r=all |
| By: | Yuta Toyama (School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan and Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan) |
| Abstract: | While the cap-and-trade program was originally proposed as a static regulation, its implementation introduces dynamic incentives such as saving (banking) of emissions per- mits. I examine the performance of the program by accounting for dynamic regulatory design and firms' incentives in the context of the US Acid Rain Program. I develop and estimate a dynamic equilibrium model of abatement investment and permit trading and banking, subject to transaction costs. Simulations reveal that although permit banking improves the cost-e fficiency, the aggregate level of banking is excess due to transaction costs. Distribution of emissions would be more dispersed in the first best. |
| Keywords: | Cap-and-trade regulation, dynamic equilibrium model, gains from trade, permit banking, transaction costs, electricity industry |
| JEL: | D22 L94 Q52 Q58 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:was:dpaper:1902&r=all |
| By: | Sanguinetti, Angela |
| Abstract: | Driver behavior has a significant impact on vehicle fuel economy and emissions. Eco-driving refers to anything a driver can do to improve on-road fuel economy. The most common strategy used to promote eco-driving is an in-vehicle display that provides the driver with feedback about their fuel efficiency, typically in real-time. This policy brief summarizes findings from an extensive review and analysis of many studies of eco-driving feedback conducted to determine the average impact of feedback on fuel economy and improve understanding of what types of feedback are most effective. The study provides the most accurate estimate to-date of the average impact of in-vehicle feedback on fuel economy and summarizes the current state of knowledge regarding characteristics of eco-driving feedback interventions that determine effectiveness. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Behavior, Ecodriving, Exhaust gases, Feedback control, Fuel consumption, Graphical user interfaces, Instrument panels, Vehicle design |
| Date: | 2019–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8f881319&r=all |
| By: | Durbin, Thomas D; Karavalakis, Georgios; Johnson, Kent C; Cocker, David R; Yang, Jiacheng; Jiang, Yu; Kumar, Sachin |
| Abstract: | Some of the most important questions in the development of sustainable transportation are identify fuels that will reduce emissions, provide diversification from fossil fuels, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, be produced from renewable sources, and that can be produced in a sustainable manner. An alternative diesel fuel that could be used for particulate matter (PM) reductions and be produced from renewable sources could represent a key advance for the transportation sector in terms of sustainability, diversification for the marketplace for the alternative fuels, emissions reductions, and reductions in greenhouse gases. Dimethyl carbonate (DMC) is a potentially new fuel that could represent an important advance in the diesel fuel area. DMC can be produced from renewable sources such as grass, manure, or trees. Preliminary tests at the University of California at Riverside have also indicated PM reductions of about 76% at only a 20% blend with diesel fuel, which is about double or triple the reductions typically found for biodiesel at a comparable blend level, and comparable to the reductions found for diesel particulate filters (DPFs). Although these preliminary results indicate the promise of DMC as a PM mass reduction strategy, it is important to more completely characterize the emissions and viability of DMC before it can be more widely used in the fuel market or for in-field demonstrations. The objective of this study was to conduct a preliminary evaluation of the viability of DMC as a transportation fuel for fleet and wider applications. This included a literature review to address questions related to air emissions, impact on vehicle system durability and parts, and any potential storage issues. This study also included some additional emissions testing to evaluate any emissions of toxic species, and to look at some optimization of blend level in terms of a full range of emissions components. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2017–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9rm104c0&r=all |
| By: | Fofie, Emmanuel A; Karavalakis, Georgios; Asa-Awuku, Akua |
| Abstract: | In this study, the authors evaluate the hygroscopicity and droplet kinetics of fresh and aged emissions from new generation gasoline direct injector engines retrofitted with a gasoline particulate filter (GPF). Furthermore, ageing and subsequent secondary aerosol formation is explored in (NH4)2SO4-seeded and non-seeded experiments. The authors explore the impacts on measured and predicted hygroscopicity, CCN-activity, and droplet kinetics of secondary aerosol mixed with initially insoluble carbonaceous materials versus very soluble (NH4)2SO4 seed. The chemical composition and density of the secondary aerosol (SA) formed from aging is measured with an HR-TOF-AMS and a custom-built APM-SMPS system. The supersaturated and subsaturated hygroscopicity of the fresh and aged emission is measured with a DMT Streamwise Thermal Gradient CCN counter and a hygroscopicity tandem differential mobility analyzer (HTDMA), respectively. The measurements show that the fresh gasoline emissions are only slightly hygroscopic in both supersaturated and subsaturated environments. Photochemical aging and subsequent condensation of the secondary aerosol formed from the co-emitted gas phase precursors increases the hygroscopicity of gasoline emissions. Without the GPF, both subsaturated and supersaturated hygroscopicity. When the engine was retrofitted with the GPF, the secondary aerosol (SA) experiments were seeded with (NH4)2SO4. In these experiments the presence of the condensing SA depresses the hygroscopicity of the salt-secondary aerosol mixture. The hygroscopicity was also depressed in the subsaturated regime with time. These changes in the hygroscopicity with aging were additionally sensitive to aerosol dry size distribution. The authors also used threshold droplet growth analysis (TDGA) to evaluate the effects of the condensing SA on droplet kinetics. These results have important implications for the assessment of cloud-aerosol indirect effects of salt-seeded and black carbonaceous aerosol cores. The authors concluded that in the new generation GDI vehicles the point of aerosol emissions will have significant influence on the impacts of the secondary and primary aerosols on climate. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2017–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1g123779&r=all |
| By: | Rodier, Caroline J |
| Abstract: | In much the same way that the automobile disrupted horse and cart transportation in the 20th century, automated vehicles (AVs) hold the potential to disrupt our current system of transportation and the fabric of our built environment in the 21st century. Experts predict that vehicles could be fully automated by as early as 2025 or as late as 2035. The public sector is just beginning to understand AV technology and to grapple with how to accommodate it in our current transportation system. Research on AVs is extremely important because AVs may significantly disrupt our transportation system with potentially profound effects, both positive and negative, on our society and our environment. However, this research is very hard to do because fully AVs have yet to travel on our roads. As a result, AV research is largely conducted by extrapolating effects from current observed behavior and drawing on theory and models. Both the magnitude of the mechanism of change and secondary effects are often uncertain. Moreover, the potential for improved safety in AVs drive the mechanisms by which vehicle miles traveled (VMT), energy, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may change. We really don’t know whether AVs will achieve the level of safety that will allow for completely driverless cars, very short headways, smaller vehicles, lower fuel use, and/or reduce insurance cost. We don’t know whether AV fleets will be harmonized to reduce energy and GHG emissions. In this white paper, the available evidence on the travel and environmental effects of AVs is critically reviewed to understand the potential magnitude and likelihood of estimated effects. The author outlines the mechanisms by which AVs may change travel demand and review the available evidence on their significance and size. These mechanisms include increased roadway capacity, reduced travel time burden, change in monetary costs, parking and relocation travel, induced travel demand, new traveler groups, and energy effects. They then describe the results of scenario modeling studies. Scenarios commonly include fleets of personal AVs and automated taxis with and without sharing. Travel and/or land use models are used to simulate the cumulative effects of scenarios. These models typically use travel activity data and detailed transportation networks to replicate current and predict future land use, traffic behavior, and/or vehicle activity in a real or hypothetical city or region. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Greenhouse gases, Highway capacity, Intelligent vehicles, Travel behavior, Travel costs, Travel demand, Vehicle miles of travel |
| Date: | 2018–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9g12v6r0&r=all |
| By: | Hardman, Scott |
| Abstract: | The market introduction of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) is being partially driven by policy interventions. One type of intervention is reoccurring and non-financial incentives, these differ from financial purchase incentives which are a one-time financial incentive associated with the purchase of a PEV. Reoccurring and non-financial incentives include special lane access for PEVs (e.g. HOV/carpool lanes, bus lanes), parking incentives, charging infrastructure development, road toll fee waivers, and licensing incentives. They also include disincentives such as gasoline tax or annual vehicle taxes. The impact of these incentives differs between regions partially due to differences in traffic conditions, travel patterns, consumer preferences, and other local variations. Due to these differences, it is challenging to rank the importance of these incentives, however existing research shows that they all can have a positive impact on PEV adoption. Policymakers wishing to promote the introduction of PEVs will need to consider local travel patterns, the regulatory environment, and consumer preferences to determine the most viable policy interventions for their region. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7v13w987&r=all |
| By: | Muehlegger, Erich; Rapson, David |
| Abstract: | This research project explores the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market, including both Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs), and the sociodemographic characteristics of purchasing households. The authors use detailed micro-level data on PEV purchase records to answer two primary research questions. Their results confirm that low-income households exhibit a lower share of PEV purchases than they do for conventional, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Households with annual income less than $50,000 comprise 33 percent of ICE purchases and only 14 percent of PEVS. By comparison, high-income households earning more than $150,000 annually comprise only 12 percent of ICE purchases and 35 percent of PEV purchases over their sample period. Similarly, unsurprising patterns can be seen across ethnicities. For example, non-Hispanic Whites represent 41 percent of ICE purchases but 55 percent of PEV purchases, as compared to Hispanics (38 percent of ICE and 10 percent of PEVs) and African Americans (3 percent of ICEs and 2 percent of PEVS). These differences naturally raise questions about barriers to PEV adoption among low-income and minority ethnic populations. By comparing outcomes in the ICE, hybrid, and PEV markets across income and ethnic groups, the authors are able to test whether price discrimination and barriers to market access are higher in PEV markets for low-income and minority ethnic groups. The authors find that, overall, they are not, although there are mixed results for the used PEV market. In general, non-white, low-income populations face higher prices in the used PEV market, relative to a baseline, than they do in the new PEV market. While some people travel farther to buy used PEVs than they do to buy used ICE vehicles, there is not a pattern that would indicate systematic discrimination (e.g. Hispanics travel farther to buy used PHEVs but less far to buy used BEVs). While the authors admit that their empirical approach cannot control for all potential vehicle composition effects, the authors view their results as being most consistent with a market that provides access to all ethnicities and income groups. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0tn4m2tx&r=all |
| By: | Tal, Gil; Lee, Jae Hyun; Nicholas, Michael A. |
| Abstract: | As a complement to various modeling efforts around the country, we provide a brief snapshot of charging behavior in the California market based on self-reported data. This is intended to be a resource for researchers to help guide assumptions on the effect that charging access, range, commuting patterns, and housing type have on charging usage. The data are reported charging events over the last 7 days by 2830 survey respondents in June- October 2017 as part of the Advanced Plug-in Travel and Charging Behavior Project funded by the California Air Resources Board, the California Energy Commission, the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, and the U.S. Department of Energy. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2018–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2038613r&r=all |
| By: | Circella, Giovanni; Lee, Yongsung; Alemi, Farzad |
| Abstract: | In the last decade, advances in information and communication technologies and the introduction of the shared economy engendered new forms of transportation options and, in particular, shared mobility. Shared mobility services such as carsharing (e.g., Zipcar and Car2go), dynamic ridesharing (e.g., Carma), ridehailing (e.g., Uber and Lyft), and bike/scooter sharing (e.g., CitiBike, Jump Bike, Bird, and Lime) have gained growing popularity especially among subgroups in the population including college-educated or urban-oriented young adults (e.g., millennials). These emerging transportation services have evolved at an unprecedented pace, and new business models and smartphone applications are frequently introduced to the market. However, their fast-changing nature and lack of relevant data have placed difficulties on research projects that aim to gain a better understanding of the adoption/use patterns of such emerging services, not to mention their impacts on various components of travel behavior and transportation policy and planning, and their related environmental impacts. This report builds on an on-going research effort that investigates emerging mobility patterns and the adoption of new mobility services. In this report, the authors focus on the environmental impacts of various modality styles and the frequency of ridehailing use among a sample of millennials (i.e., born from 1981 to 1997) and members of the preceding Generation X (i.e., born from 1965 to 1980). The total sample for the analysis included in this report includes 1,785 individuals who participated in a survey administered in Fall 2015 in California. In this study, the researchers focus on the vehicle miles traveled, the energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for transportation purposes of various groups of travelers. They identify four latent classes in the sample based on the respondents’ reported use of various travel modes: drivers, active travelers, transit riders, and car passengers. They further divide each latent class into three groups based on their reported frequency of ridehailing use: non-users, occasional users (who use ridehailing less than once a month), and regular users (who use it at least once a month). The energy consumption and GHG emissions associated with driving a personal vehicle and using ridehailing services are computed for the individuals in each of these groups (12 subgroups), and the authors discuss sociodemographics and economic characteristics, and travel-related and residential choices, of the individuals in each subgroup. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Demographics, Energy consumption, Greenhouse gases, Mobility, Mode choice, Travel behavior, Travel surveys, Vehicle sharing |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt31v7z2vf&r=all |
| By: | Norbu, Nyingtob |
| Abstract: | Bhutan’s economy has evolved significantly since embarking on a period of modern development in 1960 when its first motor road was built. Underpinning its economic growth is the hydropower sector among other drivers, which has accounted for nearly 40% of exports on average in the last 5 years. However, the earnings thus far pale in comparison to what is projected with the completion of the recent massive surge in investments in the sector. The destabilizing effects of an unpreparedness to manage such inflows have already begun to manifest in the construction phase of Bhutan’s hydropower pursuits as evidenced by the recent balance of payments challenges. Hence, we can intuitively forecast the implications once these power plants are operational and export revenues surge exponentially. The academic consensus on the negative correlation between natural resource dependence and economic growth has been conceptualized in a framework known more popularly as the Dutch Disease. In this paper we attempt to technically assess whether the economy exhibits the symptoms associated with a Dutch Disease based on the three channels which include (1) the resource movement effect, (2) the spending effect and, (3) the monetary effect. Additionally, we also conduct an analysis of another important symptom- the Bilateral Real Exchange Rate- to ascertain whether it has been under pressure and the determinants of its movement. While we do find evidence of some of the symptoms such as real exchange rate appreciation, the estimates aren’t robust enough to categorically attribute these symptoms to power exports or a monetary disequilibrium in our framework. However, we argue that the traditional model may have to be tweaked slightly in our case because more traditional outcomes such as the resource movement effect probably manifest in different ways. |
| Keywords: | Bhutan, dutch disease, real exchange rate, energy exports, current account |
| JEL: | E60 O13 Q48 |
| Date: | 2017–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93249&r=all |
| By: | Asuka Yamaguchi (Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya City University) |
| Abstract: | In recent years, energy constraints are discussed from a historical point of view. This study aims at examining the copper industry's energy use in Japan from the Meiji period to the time of WWI and clarifying the process of, and reasons for, the energy source selection. This study considered not only energy use in the large-scale mines but also energy use in the small-scale mines and miners' homes. As a result, it was clarified that the mines changed into a space that is based on a diverse combination of energy depending on differences in location (access to energy), natural conditions, financial power, the required amount and price of energy, energy use technologies, ore quality, and end-product (usage). |
| Keywords: | energy, diversity, mine, copper, Japan |
| JEL: | N75 N55 Q40 |
| Date: | 2019–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2019-010&r=all |
| By: | Guo, Zhaomiao; Fan, Yueyue |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a stochastic multi-agent optimization model that supports energy infrastructure planning under uncertainty. The interdependence between different decision entities in the system is captured in an energy supply chain network, where new entrants of investors compete among themselves and with existing generators for natural resources, transmission capacities, and demand markets. Directly solving the stochastic energy supply chain planning problem is challenging. Through decomposition and reformulation, we convert the original problem to many traffic network equilibrium problems, which enables efficient solution algorithm design. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt89s5s8hn&r=all |
| By: | Lawell, Cynthia Lin; Yi, Fujin; Thome, Karen E |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effects of government subsidies and the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) on the U.S. ethanol industry. The authors first develop a stylized theory model of subsidies in which they examine which types of subsidies are more cost-effective for inducing investment in firm capacity, and how the presence of a mandate affects the relative cost-effectiveness of different types of subsidies. The authors then empirically analyze how government subsidies and the Renewable Fuel Standard affect ethanol production, investment, entry, and exit by estimating a structural econometric model of a dynamic game that enables us to recover the entire cost structure of the industry, including the distributions of investment costs, entry costs, and exit scrap values. The authors use the estimated parameters to evaluate three different types of subsidy: a production subsidy, an investment subsidy, and an entry subsidy, each with and without the RFS. While conventional wisdom and some of the previous literature favor production subsidies over investment subsidies, and while historically the federal government has used production subsidies to support ethanol, our results show that, for the ethanol industry, investment subsidies and entry subsidies are more cost-effective than production subsidies for inducing investment that otherwise would not have occurred. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2017–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt73n0t4pv&r=all |
| By: | Ioannou, Petros; Zhang, Yihang |
| Abstract: | The aim of this project is to use intelligent transportation system (ITS) technologies that take into account the presence of trucks in the traffic flow, in order to improve impact on the environment by reducing fuel consumption and pollution levels in areas where the truck volume is relatively high. The work is divided into two parts. In the first part, we propose an integrated variable speed limit (VSL), ramp metering (RM) and lane change (LC) controller using feedback linearization. The proposed integrated controller keeps the bottleneck flow at the maximum level and homogenizes the density and speed of the traffic flow along the highway sections. This improvement of the traffic flow characteristics lead to improved fuel economy and reduction in tailpipe emissions of both trucks and passenger vehicles. In order to evaluate the performance of the integrated traffic controller, a microscopic traffic simulation network of the I-710 highway, which is connected to the Ports of Long Beach/Los Angeles and has high truck volume, is developed. We use Monte-Carlo traffic flow simulations to demonstrate that the integrated traffic controller can generate consistent improvements with respect to travel time, safety, fuel economy and emissions under different traffic conditions. In the second part, we compared the proposed feedback linearization controller with the widely-used model predictive traffic controller in terms of performance and robustness with respect to perturbations on traffic demand, model parameters and measurement noise. Results show that both controllers are able to improve the total time spent, which leads to improvements in fuel economy and emissions, under different levels of perturbation and noise. The feedback linearization controller however, guarantees good performance and robustness properties than the model predictive controller with much less computational effort. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Feedback control, Fuel consumption, Lane changing, Monte Carlo method, Pollutants, Ramp metering, Traffic flow, Trucks, Variable speed limits |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2rr3b8mz&r=all |
| By: | Hao, Peng; Wang, Chao |
| Abstract: | Traffic congestion at arterial intersections and freeway bottlenecks degrades the air quality and threatens the public health. Conventionally, air pollutants are monitored by sparsely distributed Quality Assurance Air Monitoring Sites. Sparse mobile crowd-sourced data, such as cellular network and Global Positioning System (GPS) data, contain large amount of traffic information, but have low sampling rate and penetration rate due to the cost limit on data transmission and archiving. The sparse mobile data provide a supplement or alternative approach to evaluate the environmental impact of traffic congestion. This research establishes a framework for traffic-related air pollution evaluation using sparse mobile data and traffic volume data from California Performance Measurement System (PeMS) and Los Angeles Department of Transportation (LADOT). The proposed framework integrates traffic state model, emission model and dispersion model. An effective tool is developed to evaluate the environmental impact of traffic congestion for both arterials and freeways in an accurate, timely and economic way. The proposed methods have good performance in estimating monthly peak hour fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) concentration, with error of 2 ug/m3 from the measurement from monitor sites. The estimated spatial distribution of annual PM 2.5 concentration also matches well with the concentration map from California Communities Environmental Health Screening Tool (CalEnviroScreen), but with higher resolution. The proposed system will help transportation operators and public health officials alleviate the risk of air pollution, and can serve as a platform for the development of other potential applications. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7q6760rz&r=all |
| By: | Timothy Köhler (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch); Martin de Wit (School of Public Leadership, University of Stellenbosch) |
| Abstract: | Economic growth has been seen to be accompanied by surges in natural resource extraction rates or levels of pollution and waste. As such, many suggest that the pursuit thereof may lead to environmental degradation through increased waste generation and pollution, given a country’s technological constraints and environmental assimilative capacity. In the field of economics, the ‘Environmental Kuznets Curve’ (EKC) has served as arguably the most dominant approach to assess this relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation since its popularisation in the early 1990s (Stern, 2017:8). The EKC implies that economic activity is environmentally beneficial in the long-run, despite adversely affecting it in the short-run. International findings remain mixed at best, and only a limited amount of other studies which attempt to assess the existence of an EKC in South Africa’s context exist, all of which use the same global air pollutant for environmental quality. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the existing literature by investigating the presence of the EKC for a set of relatively diverse – three local and three global – air pollutants in South Africa for the period 1970 to 2010. This study serves as the first to estimate the relationship for any local pollutant, as well as two global pollutants, in South Africa through the EKC framework. Using OLS and ARDL regression techniques, the results of the 24 estimated models do not provide evidence of an EKC for any of the select pollutants. However, when using levels instead of logarithms, an EKC is found in one specification for one local pollutant (NH3). Otherwise, no distinction between local and global air pollutants is found. In contrast to the EKC’s inverted-U shape, the ARDL models for two global (CO2 and N2O) and two local (SO2 and PM10) pollutants indicate statistically significant U-shaped relationships at conventional significance levels. Unfortunately, the reduced-form approach utilised in this paper does not indicate any underlying causal relationship and as such, conclusive policy suggestions cannot be made. |
| Keywords: | environmental Kuznets curve, economic growth, economic development, environmental degradation, environmental quality, air pollution, South Africa |
| JEL: | O13 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sza:wpaper:wpapers318&r=all |
| By: | Brendan Badia; Randall Berry; Ermin Wei |
| Abstract: | As demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is expanding, meeting the need for charging infrastructure, especially in urban areas, has become a critical issue. One method of adding charging stations is to install them at parking spots. This increases the value of these spots to EV drivers needing to charge their vehicles. However, there is a cost to constructing these spots and such spots may preclude drivers not needing to charge from using them, reducing the parking options for such drivers\color{black}. We look at two models for how decisions surrounding investment in charging stations on existing parking spots may be undertaken. First, we analyze two firms who compete over installing stations under government set mandates or subsidies. Given the cost of constructing spots and the competitiveness of the markets, we find it is ambiguous whether setting higher mandates or higher subsidies for spot construction leads to better aggregate outcomes. Second, we look at a system operator who faces uncertainty on the size of the EV market. If they are risk neutral, we find a relatively small change in the uncertainty of the EV market can lead to large changes in the optimal charging capacity. |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1904.09967&r=all |
| By: | Azeez, Rasheed Oluwaseyi |
| Abstract: | Studies have been done on oil price volatility spillover effects on the prices of food in both pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. However, what has been sparingly studied is oil price volatility spillover effects on urban prices of food and rural prices of food. The disparity in the rural-urban spending in Nigeria is an area that can further be explored by evaluating the effects of oil price volatility spillover on prices of food in these areas. This study therefore adopts GARCH (1, 1)-TY model to evaluate the impulse response function and variance decomposition of these effects on prices of food in pre-crisis and post-crisis periods. Findings show that in full sample and post-crisis periods both aggregate price of food (APF) and urban average price of food (APFU) positively respond to oil price shocks while rural average price of food (APFR) responds negatively to oil price shocks. However, the response of the urban average price of food proves to be more significant in the post-crisis periods as it appears relatively most affected in this period by a greater percentage of oil price shocks. |
| Keywords: | GARCH (1, 1), TY, APF, APFR, APFU, Oil price volatility spillover, Impulse Response Function, Variance Decomposition |
| JEL: | Q18 Q3 Q31 Q43 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:93188&r=all |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan PhD; Martin, Elliot PhD; Bansal, Apaar |
| Abstract: | This project is a two-year evaluation of pricing/incentives applied to the one-way, all electric carsharing system operated by car2go in San Diego, CA. This system is the only electric vehicle-based, one-way carsharing system with instant access (i.e., accessible without reservation) operating in the U.S. The goal of this project is to work with car2go and the San Diego region to develop and evaluate pricing/incentive structures for their members, which improve system operational efficiency (vehicle redistribution, state-of-charge management, use of vehicles placed at public transit stations) and encourage shared-vehicle use. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt25x091bh&r=all |
| By: | David Boto-Garcìa (University of Oviedo); Alessandro Bucciol (Department of Economics (University of Verona)) |
| Abstract: | We study at the individual level the connection between actions meant to reduce energy use and beliefs about personal responsibility on climate change mitigation. In addition, we also examine the role of human values and cross-country differences in shaping beliefs and behaviours. Using data from 23 (mostly) European countries, we find large heterogeneity in both beliefs and values, with richer countries being more likely to exhibit more concern about the environment. Personal responsibility and actual energy saving are positively correlated, but the correlation is not high. As regards human values, self-transcendence and openness are positively correlated with responsibility, while self-enhancement and conservation are negatively correlated. Values are instead not as correlated with energy saving, since we find only a positive correlation with conservation and a negative correlation with self-enhancement. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Energy saving, Personal responsibility, Human values |
| JEL: | Q54 D91 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ver:wpaper:02/2019&r=all |
| By: | Rodier, Caroline; Michaels, Julia |
| Abstract: | Ride-hailing services, which allow consumers to order and pay for rides through smart phone applications, have grown to a substantial proportion of the transportation market. Today, an estimated 15% of adults across the U.S. and 21% living in major U.S. cities have used ride-hailing services. The growth of ride-hailing services has raised questions about their overall effects on the transportation system. While they clearly offer a new form of mobility, there is concern they may increase congestion and air pollutant emissions. A limited number of studies have attempted to quanitfy changes associated with the increased use of ride hailing services. UC Davis researchers examined how ride-hailing affects the total amount of driving (measured in vehicle miles traveled, VMT) as well as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The researchers developed a framework of categories for analyzing the multiple aspects of transportation that may be affected by ride-hailing. These categories are: automobile ownership; number of vehicle trips generated; choice of mode of travel; empty (passenger-less) travel between drop-off and pick-up points, known as “network travel†; and destination choice and land use. Thirteen (13) studies were analyzed using this new framework: 8 used surveys of riders or recorded data on rider and driver activity; and 5 used simulated (“modeled†) travel in and around cities by automated taxis. By compiling multiple studies in the framework, stronger and more certain conclusions could be reached. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Automobile ownership, Greenhouse gases, Mode choice, Travel behavior, Trip generation, Vehicle miles of travel |
| Date: | 2019–02–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4vz52416&r=all |
| By: | Hardman, Scott; Berliner, Rosaria M.; Tal, Gil |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to research investigating the impact of automated and partially automated vehicles on travel behavior. This contribution comes from taking a first look at the impact of partially/semi-automated (SAE Level 2) vehicles on travel behavior and potential correlations with vehicle miles travelled (VMT). The results of this study are taken from a questionnaire survey of 3,001 plug-in electric (PEV) owners in the USA, of which 347 own a partially-automated vehicle (e.g Tesla Model S with Autopilot). This study looks at the VMT of different vehicle types in the survey including plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and semi-automated BEVs. This comparison reveals that semi-automated BEVs have significantly higher VMT compared to other vehicle types. Least squares regression is used to understand VMT in semi-automated BEVs further. This reveals a significant relationship between commute distance, age, household income, house type, and the frequency of autopilot use, and annual VMT. It is possible that the results are showing a self-selection causality as owners of these vehicles already drove more prior to them selecting a semi-automated BEV. Nevertheless, this model indicates that as the frequency of autopilot use increases, so does annual VMT. Due to the potential for two ways causality this study cannot determine whether there is a causal relationship between the use of semi-automated vehicle technology and additional VMT. It is hoped that this first look at the impact of partially-automated BEVs will encourage more research and debate in this area with the aim of improving policy responses to partially and fully automated vehicles. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2018–09–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6kt1j7gj&r=all |
| By: | Mönnig, Anke; Schneemann, Christian (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Weber, Enzo (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Zika, Gerd (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Helmrich, Robert |
| Abstract: | "This study focuses on the economic effects of the phenomenon of the electrification of powertrains in passenger cars (e-mobility). The automotive industry is one of the leading sectors in Germany and the country is one of the world's leading car producers. Therefore the economic impact could be extensive. Using the scenario technique, a number of assumptions have been made and integrated into the QINFORGE analytical tool. At the beginning of the scenario, the underlying assumptions have a positive effect on the economic development. However, in the long run they lead to a lower GDP and level of employment. The change in technology will lead to 114,000 job cuts by the end of 2035. The economy as a whole will lose nearly 20 billion euros (0.6 % of the GDP). In the scenario, we assumed a share of only 23 percent of electric cars as compared to all new registered cars in 2035. The electrification of powertrains will have negative effects especially on skilled workers. The demand for specialist and expert activities will also decrease with a time delay. A much higher market penetration could lead to stronger economic effects. Furthermore, a higher market share of domestically produced cars and traction batteries could generate more positive economic effects." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| JEL: | E17 E23 E24 E27 |
| Date: | 2019–04–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201908&r=all |
| By: | Blanco, Hilda; Wikstrom, Alexander |
| Abstract: | This paper explores opportunities for the redevelopment of failing regional shopping malls as Transit-Oriented Developments (TODs) to improve transit ridership, focusing on Southern California. In effect, the study suggests an alternative to the typical sequence of first providing transit infrastructure and then changing land uses and densities to develop a TOD around new transit stations. Instead, the study suggests that failing shopping malls can provide the footprint for their redevelopment as TODs that could then be linked to transit lines. The study focuses on several major topics and reviews recent literature on the following steps in the argument for this policy: 1. The rationale for redeveloping declining malls as TODs, the supporting federal and California policies for TODs, and evidence for how different characteristics of TODs and their combination can reduce vehicle miles traveled, air pollution, and greenhouse gas emissions; 2. The issues that hinder the development of TODs around transit stations, e.g., difficulties in up-zoning, land assembly; loss of existing affordable housing; 3. Changes in retail, focusing on factors affecting the closing of shopping malls, e.g., the effect of Internet shopping on shopping malls, and the increasing failure of shopping malls; and 4. The potential and rationale for the redevelopment of failing regional malls into TODs. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Feasibility analysis, Policy analysis, Public private partnerships, Public transit, Redevelopment, Shopping centers, Transit oriented development, Zoning |
| Date: | 2018–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3h62q04h&r=all |
| By: | Suzi Kerr (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Steffen Lippert (University of Auckland); Edmund Lou (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of side-payments to countries that have a low net benefit from participating in efficient climate cooperation in a repeated games framework with investment in different technologies. We consider different timings of these payments and different degrees of commitment. If countries cannot commit ex ante to transfer funds to low-benefit participants to an agreement, then there is a trade-off. Investment based agreements, where transfers occur before emissions are realized, but after investments have been committed, maximize the scope of cooperation. Results-based agreements minimize transfers whenever these agreements implement cooperation. If countries can commit to transfer funds, then agreements in which countries with high benefits of climate cooperation pre-commit to results-based payments to countries with low benefits both maximize the scope of cooperation and minimize transfers. |
| Keywords: | Game theory, cooperation, repeated games, climate change, international agreement |
| JEL: | Q54 Q56 Q58 F55 F53 |
| Date: | 2019–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:19_04&r=all |
| By: | Rodier, Caroline |
| Abstract: | Towards the close of the first decade of the 21st Century, ride-hailing services began to enter the transportation market through smart phone applications that allowed consumers to hail and pay for a ride from drivers using their own vehicle. The information and communication technologies used by these platforms allow for more reliable service, to more locations, with shorter wait times, and at a lower cost than traditional taxi services and, perhaps, public transit. Today, an estimated 15% of adults across the U.S. and 21% in major cities have personally used these services. The successful entrance of ride-hailing services into the transportation market has raised questions about their effect on the overall transportation system, including congestion, total vehicle miles traveled (VMT), and greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). Reliable answers are limited, in large part, because of their rapid expansion and the lack of publicly available data from these private ride-sharing companies. However, there is now a small body of research, most conducted in 2016 and 2017, that provides some initial evidence on the impacts of these services. This research includes population representative survey data, targeted ride-hailing user survey data, and measured ride-hailing driver and passenger activity data. In addition, the recent interest in automated vehicles has produced modeling studies that also provide insight into the potential effects of ride-hailing services. The following framework was developed to identify the range of possible travel effects, both positive and negative, on users of ride-hailing services. This includes the effects of ride-hailing on auto ownership, trip generation, destination choice, mode choice, network vehicle travel, and land use. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2rv570tt&r=all |
| By: | Harvey, John T.; Kendall, Alissa; Saboori, Arash; Ostovar, Maryam; Butt, Ali A.; Hernandez, Jesus; Haynes, Bruce |
| Abstract: | A multitude of goals have been stated for complete streets including non-motorized travel safety, reduced costs and environmental burdens, and creation of more livable communities, or in other words, the creation of livable, sustainable and economically vibrant communities. A number of performance measures have been proposed to address these goals. Environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) quantifies the energy, resource use, and emissions to air, water and land for a product or a system using a systems approach. One gap that has been identified in current LCA impact indicators is lack of socio-economic indicators to complement the existing environmental indicators. To address the gaps in performance metrics, this project developed a framework for LCA of complete streets projects, including the development of socio-economic impact indicators that also consider equity. The environmental impacts of complete streets were evaluated using LCA information for a range of complete street typologies. A parametric sensitivity analysis approach was performed to evaluate the impacts of different levels of mode choice and trip change. Another critical question addressed was what are different social goals (economic, health, safety, etc.) that should be considered and how to consider equity in performance metrics for social goals. This project lays the foundation for the creation of guidelines for social and environmental LCAs for complete streets. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Complete streets, life cycle assessment, equity, social goals, environmental impacts |
| Date: | 2018–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0vw335dp&r=all |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan PhD; Cohen, Adam; Farrar, Emily |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–11–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt7p69d2bg&r=all |
| By: | Serrao, Jacqueline; Nilsson, Sarah; Kimmel, Shawn |
| Keywords: | Law |
| Date: | 2018–11–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt49b8b9w0&r=all |
| By: | Boarnet, Marlon G; Bostic, Raphael W; Rodnyansky, Seva; Santiago-Bartolomei, Raúl; Williams, Danielle; Prohofsky, Allen |
| Abstract: | Rail transit’s association with gentrification has been a presence in the public discourse for some time and Los Angeles is no different. There is a prevailing public perception that Los Angeles' recent boom in rail transit development causes an influx of high income residents and an outflow of low income residents near rail stations. The authors' research asks whether the presence of rail transit increases the outflow lower-income neighborhood residents. The authors use a unique dataset of tax filers in Los Angeles County to address this question. This database tracks the income and location of households across 21 years at a fine spatial scale. This analysis aggregates household data to provide station-area population out mobility rates for 35 rail station neighborhoods and 35 paired control neighborhoods along two Los Angeles Metro transit lines. Their sample consists of 15 stations along the Red/Purple subway line and 20 station along the Gold light rail line that opened between 1993 and 2013. The authors measure effects on four income brackets: below 30% of Area Median Income (AMI) ( $40,000 in 2013). |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2017–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2fb4m7bs&r=all |
| By: | Wei , Albee |
| Abstract: | The UC Davis Campus Travel Survey is a joint effort by the Transportation Services and the Sustainable Transportation Center, part of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis. Since 2007 the survey has been administered each fall by a graduate student at the Institute of Transportation Studies. The main purpose of the survey is to collect annual data on how the UC Davis community travels to campus, including mode choice, vehicle occupancy, distances traveled, and carbon emissions. Over the past ten years, the travel survey results have been used to assess awareness and utilization of campus transportation services and estimate demand for new services designed to promote sustainable commuting at UC Davis. Data from the campus travel survey have also provided researchers with valuable insights about the effects of attitudes and perceptions of mobility options on commute mode choice. This year’s survey is the eleventh administration of the campus travel survey. The 2017-18 survey was administered online in October and November 2017, distributed by email to a stratified random sample of 19,796 students, faculty, and staff (out of an estimated total population of 47,450). Over 20 percent (4,059 individuals) of those contacted responded to this year’s survey, with 18.9 percent actually completing it. For the statistics presented throughout this report, weighs the responses by role (freshman, sophomore, junior, senior, Master’s student, PhD student, faculty, and staff) and gender so that the proportion of respondents in each group reflects their proportion in the campus population. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3jf8j1k4&r=all |
| By: | Niemeier, Debbie; Qian, Xiaodong |
| Abstract: | Bikeshare programs are increasingly popular in the United States, and they are an important part of sustainable transportation systems. They offer an important alternative mode choice for many types of last mile trips. Most of the current research on bikeshare focuses on bikeshare benefits (e.g., how to replace auto trips with bike trips and reduce greenhouse-gas emissions) and bikeshare system management (e.g., bike repositioning between stations). Far less attention has been paid to the programmatic potential for providing greater access to jobs and essential services for underserved communities. To date, there is virtually no quantitative research aimed at designing bikeshare systems for underserved communities. The authors develop a new spatial index that identifies bikeshare station locations exhibiting a high potential for providing service for underserved communities. The index can: 1) facilitate the identification of priority areas for bikeshare investment based on current infrastructure and the potential for increased job or essential service access; 2) inform the siting of bikeshare stations and investment in bike infrastructure to better assist underserved populations, and finally 3) provide an estimate of the potential for improved job and social services access via bike†to†transit. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7g49j69q&r=all |
| By: | Rodier, Caroline; Michaels, Julia |
| Abstract: | Automated vehicles (AVs) may significantly disrupt our transportation system, with potentially profound environmental effects. This policy brief outlines the mechanisms by which AVs may affect the environment through influencing travel demand, as well as the magnitude of these effects on vehicle miles travelled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Personal AVs and AV taxis (or ride-hailing services) are likely to increase VMT and GHG, exacerbate traffic congestion in city centers, and potentially lead to suburban sprawl. Electrification and vehicle sharing may reduce some of these environmental effects, but targeted policies must be put in place to ensure that these solutions are effective. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Greenhouse gases, Highway capacity, Intelligent vehicles, Travel behavior, Travel costs, Travel demand, Vehicle miles of travel |
| Date: | 2018–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt27p0k44g&r=all |
| By: | Cohen, Adam; Shaheen, Susan PhD |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt0dk3h89p&r=all |
| By: | Germbek, Offer; Kurzhanskiy, Alex A.; Medury, Aditya; Varaiya, Pravin; Yu, Mengqiao; Siddiqui, Asfand |
| Abstract: | This report describes the technology needed for safe and efficient operation of signalized intersections in the presence of automated vehicles (AVs). |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt4dm0q8tp&r=all |
| By: | California Department of Transportation (Caltrans); Partners for Advanced Transportation Technology (PATH) |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2017–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt3st725r6&r=all |
| By: | Bayen, Alexandre PhD; Forscher, Teddy; Shaheen, Susan PhD |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9ws6j5fk&r=all |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan PhD; Cohen, Adam |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt3s53f1cx&r=all |
| By: | Sciara, Gian-Claudia; Lee, Amy |
| Abstract: | California has established itself as a leader in efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. At the same time, the state has not reflected its ambitious policies for GHG reduction and climate action in its practices for allocating state transportation funding. This white paper reviews the complex systems through which California generates and allocates state revenue for transportation investment. It finds that the state’s framework for funding transportation is disconnected from its climate goals. The paper also suggests preliminary steps for revising this framework to reinforce GHG reduction goals. Such recommendations are particularly salient given the state’s recently completed study of road user charges as an alternative transportation revenue source. Implementation of road charges – or any other new or revised transportation revenue source – would need to address the disposition of revenues generated. The paper argues that California should use any such opportunity to align the distribution of state transportation dollars with its climate objectives, not fall back on status quo allocation practices. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9jp6d597&r=all |
| By: | Forscher, Teddy; Bayen, Alexandre PhD; Shaheen, Susan PhD |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9z0871t6&r=all |
| By: | Stocker, Adam; Shaheen, Susan PhD |
| Abstract: | Automated vehicles, if shared, have the potential to blur the lines between public and private transportation services. This chapter reviews possible future shared automated vehicle (SAV) business models and their potential impacts on travel behavior. By examining the impacts of non-automated shared mobility services like carsharing and ridesourcing, we foster a better understanding of how current shared mobility services affect user behavior. This serves as a starting point to explore the potential impact of SAV services. Several key studies covering the topic are discussed. Although the future of SAVs is uncertain, this chapter begins the dialogue around SAV business models that may develop, which are informed by current shared mobility services. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Automated vehicles, shared mobility, ridesourcing |
| Date: | 2017–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt5d55s8sp&r=all |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan PhD; Cohen, Adam; Jaffee, Mark |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt1mw8n13h&r=all |
| By: | Forscher, Teddy; Shaheen, Susan PhD |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9985x1rx&r=all |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan PhD; Cohen, Adam MCRP; Bayen, Alexandre PhD |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–10–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt7jx6z631&r=all |
| By: | Tian, Danyang; Wu, Guoyuan; Boriboonsomsin, Kanok; Barth, Matthew J |
| Abstract: | A number of Connected and/or Automated Vehicle (CAV) applications have recently been designed to improve the performance of our transportation system. Safety, mobility and environmental sustainability are three cornerstone performance metrics when evaluating the benefits of CAV applications. These metrics can be quantified by various measures of effectiveness (MOEs). Most of the existing CAV research assesses the benefits of CAV applications on only one (e.g., safety) or two (e.g., mobility and environment) aspects, without holistically evaluating the interactions among the three types of MOEs. This paper first proposes a broad classification of CAV applications, i.e., vehiclecentric, infrastructure-centric, and traveler-centric. Based on a comprehensive literature review, a number of typical CAV applications have been examined in great detail, where a categorized analysis in terms of MOEs is performed. Finally, several conclusions are drawn, including the identification of influential factors on system performance, and suggested approaches for obtaining co-benefits across different types of MOEs. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2017–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1k20w849&r=all |
| By: | Shaheen, Susan PhD; Cohen, Adam |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt1k71f2vv&r=all |