nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2019‒03‒11
24 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Public finance for renewable energy use and for the renewable energy sector's development: externalities, sustainability and other issues By Clement A. Tisdell
  2. Can Incentives to Increase Electricity Use Reduce the Cost of Integrating Renewable Resources? By Laura M. Andersen; Lars Gårn Hansen; Carsten Lynge Jensen; Frank A. Wolak
  3. Prices vs. percentages: use of tradable green certificates as an instrument of greenhouse gas mitigation By Arild Heimvik; Eirik S. Amundsen
  4. Greening the South Africa's economy could benefit the food sector: evidence from a carbon tax policy assessment By Kalaba, M.; Ntombela, S.; Bohlmann, H.
  5. Export Competitiveness - Fuel Price Nexus in Developing Countries: Real or False Concern? By Kangni R Kpodar; Stefania Fabrizio; Kodjovi M. Eklou
  6. Do voluntary environmental programs reduce emissions? EMAS in the German manufacturing sector By Kube, Roland; von Graevenitz, Kathrine; Löschel, Andreas; Massier, Philipp
  7. Optimal Climate Strategy with Mitigation, Carbon Removal, and Solar Geoengineering By Mariia Belaia
  8. The Heat is on: a framework for measuring financial stress under disruptive energy transition scenarios By Robert Vermeulen; Edo Schets; Melanie Lohuis; Barbara Kölbl; David-Jan Jansen; Willem Heeringa
  9. Without coal in the age of steam and dams in the age of electricity: an explanation for the failure of Portugal to industrialize before the Second World War By Sofia Teives Henriques; Paul Sharp
  10. Closer to One Great Pool? Evidence from Structural Breaks in Oil Price Differentials By Plante, Michael D.; Strickler, Grant
  11. Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte der Energiewende in den Bundesländern – methodische Ansätze und Ergebnisse By Philip Ulrich; Dr. Ulrike Lehr; Dr. Christian Lutz
  12. The Impact of Natural Gas Consumption on Industry Value Added in the Mediterranean Region By Harkat, Tahar
  13. Capital stranding cascades: The impact of decarbonisation on productive asset utilisation By Cahen-Fourot, Louison; Campiglio, Emanuele; Dawkins, Elena; Godin, Antoine; Kemp-Benedict, Eric
  14. Mögliche Engpässe für die Energiewende By Dr. Christian Lutz; Lisa Becker; Dr. Ulrike Lehr
  15. Japan's Leadership at the G8 Toyako Summit on Climate Change By Tomohito Shinoda
  16. Dynamic Impact of the U.S. Monetary Policy on Oil Market Returns and Volatility By Hardik A. Marfatia; Rangan Gupta; Esin Cakan
  17. The Role of Electricity Prices in Structural Transformation: Evidence from the Philippines By Majah-Leah V. Ravago; Arlan Zandro I. Brucal; James Roumasset; Jan Carlo Punongbayan
  18. Working Paper 305 - Inflation Dynamics In Post-Secession Sudan By Suwareh Darbo; Amandine Nakumuryango
  19. Gold-Oil Dependence Dynamics and the Role of Geopolitical Risks: Evidence from a Markov-Switching Time-Varying Copula Model By Aviral Kumar Tiwari; Goodness C. Aye; Rangan Gupta; Konstantinos Gkillas
  20. Vorteile der Energiewende über die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte hinaus – eine literaturbasierte Übersicht By Dr. Christian Lutz; Dr. Ulrike Lehr; Lisa Becker; Dr. Barbara Breitschopf
  21. Influence of petroleum and gas trade on EU economies from the reduced Google matrix analysis of UN COMTRADE data By C\'elestin Coquid\'e; Leonardo Ermann; Jos\'e Lages; D. L. Shepelyansky
  22. A Macroeconomic Forecasting Model of the Fixed Exchange Rate Regime for the Oil-Rich Kazakh Economy By Tibor Hledik; Karel Musil; Jakub Rysanek; Jaromir Tonner
  23. United Arab Emirates; 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United Arab Emirates By International Monetary Fund
  24. Le Green IT, un outil au service de la stratégie RSE des entreprises By Amélie Bohas

  1. By: Clement A. Tisdell
    Abstract: This article outlines the case for increasing our dependence on solar and wind power to generate electricity. It outlines the economic reasons why governments should provide financial incentives for the increased use and production of electricity from solar and wind power and identifies the policy instruments able to provide these incentives and encourage the development of this green electricity sector. Although wind and solar resources are usually classified as renewable resources, it is argued that classifying them as flow resources is more appropriate. Basic sustainability concerns about the use of alternative energy resources differ. The nature of these different concerns is clarified. Pigovian-type economic analysis is employed to provide an illustration of the superior social economic benefits of using solar and wind power to generate electricity rather than fossil fuels. However, it is also pointed out that there are economic and political constraints on increasing our reliance on solar and wind power to generate electricity. These include the unsatisfactory flow of these resources in some parts of the world, and constraints on economically and sustainably storing the electricity generated by using these resources. However, technological progress is likely to improve the prospects for storing electricity. Given that the demand for electricity can be expected to increase due to technological change and economic growth, it is more important than ever to pay attention to methods of electricity production (such as those utilizing solar and wind power) which are more environmentally friendly and which have superior sustainability qualities compared to the use of fossil fuels. In many parts of the world, greater reliance on solar and wind power will have these beneficial effects and positive social economic benefits.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2019–03–01
  2. By: Laura M. Andersen (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Lars Gårn Hansen (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of CopenhagenAuthor-Name: Tomas Baležentis); Carsten Lynge Jensen (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen); Frank A. Wolak (Stanford University, Program on Energy and Sustainable Development and Department of Economics)
    Abstract: We report results from a large field experiment that with a few hours prior notice provided Danish residential consumers with dynamic price and environmental signals aimed at causing them to shift their consumption either into or away from certain hours of the day. The same marginal price signal is found to cause substantially larger consumption shifts into target hours compared to consumption shifts away from target hours. Consumption is also reduced in the hours of the day before and after these into target hours and there is weaker evidence of increased consumption in the hours surrounding away target hours. The same into versus away results hold for the environmental signals, although the absolute size of the effects are smaller. Using detailed household-level demographic information for all customers invited to participate in the experiment, both models are re-estimated accounting for this decision. For both the price and environmental treatments, the same qualitative results are obtained, but with uniformly smaller quantitative magnitudes. These selection-corrected estimates are used to perform a counterfactual experiment where all of the retailer’s residential customers are assumed to face these dynamic price signals. We find substantial wholesale energy cost savings for the retailer from declaring into events designed to shift consumption from high demand periods to low demand periods within the day, which suggests that such a pricing strategy could significantly reduce the cost of increasing the share of greenhouse gas free wind and solar electricity production in an electricity supply industry.
    Keywords: Dynamic electricity pricing, Energy demand, Randomized field experiments
    JEL: C93 L51 L94 Q41
    Date: 2019–02
  3. By: Arild Heimvik; Eirik S. Amundsen
    Abstract: The paper analyzes the problem of achieving a target path of emission reductions in the electricity sector, using a scheme of tradable green certificates (TGC). There are two types of generation, renewable and fossil. The latter causes the emissions. The paper also examines effects from emission regulation on construction of new renewable generation capacity. Outcomes are compared with an emission fee and a subsidy. The analytical results are simulated with a numerical model and social surplus are calculated for the different instruments. Two versions of the percentage requirement are devised for the TGC scheme. Results show that the target path of emission reductions is achievable, but incentives for new renewable generation capacity will be sub-optimal, regardless of the version of the percentage requirement. The TGC scheme is neither the most accurate nor the most cost-efficient, instrument but it does lead to a smaller reduction of social surplus than a subsidy.
    Keywords: emission regulation, energy policy, green certificates, Pigouvian taxes, subsidies
    JEL: C70 Q28 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2019
  4. By: Kalaba, M.; Ntombela, S.; Bohlmann, H.
    Abstract: South Africa has a competitive and viable food production sector which enables the country to be a consistent net exporter of agricultural products. Lately, the business and labour organisations have raised concerns that the government's intention to implement the carbon tax policy will affect the food supply, subsequently exacerbating the unemployment and food insecurity in the country. Carbon tax is one of the policy tools to be implemented in order to reduce the growing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions thus helping the government meets its Paris Agreement commitments. South Africa's National Treasury released a second draft of the carbon tax bill in 2017, which takes into account the concerns raised by different organisations. In this paper, we evaluate the potential impact of the carbon tax policy on the food sector using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that the carbon tax is an effective policy tool to mitigate emissions, as they decline by 33 percent relative to the baseline by 2035. This also leads to a welfare loss of R98.326 billion as the country transform into a green economy. While sectors such as transport, steel and coal-generated electricity experiences significant output decline, the food sector shows improvements in terms of production and employment when the carbon tax is implemented. The positive effects on the food sector suggests that the policy makers have designed a plausible environmental protection policy that cushion the food supply against any expected negative effects. Key words: CGE, carbon tax, food JEL classification:C68, H23, Q18
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy
    Date: 2018–09–25
  5. By: Kangni R Kpodar; Stefania Fabrizio; Kodjovi M. Eklou
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of domestic fuel price increases on export growth in a sample of 77 developing countries over the period 2000-2014. Using a fixed-effect estimator and the local projection approach, we find that an increase in domestic gasoline or diesel price adversely affects real non-fuel export growth, but only in the short run as the impact phases out within two years after the shock. The results also suggest that the negative effect of fuel price increase on exports is mainly noticeable in countries with a high-energy dependency ratio and countries where access to an alternative source of energy, such as electricity, is constrained, thus preventing producers from altering energy consumption mix in response to fuel price changes.
    Date: 2019–02–04
  6. By: Kube, Roland; von Graevenitz, Kathrine; Löschel, Andreas; Massier, Philipp
    Abstract: Voluntary environmental management programs for firms have become an increasingly popular instrument of environmental policy. However, the literature's conclusion on the effectiveness of such programs is ambiguous, and for the European region there is a lack of evidence based on a large control group. We seek to fill this gap with an evaluation of the Eco-Management and Audit Scheme (EMAS), introduced in 1995 by the European Union as a premium certification of continuous pro-environmental efforts above regulatory minimum standards. It is more demanding than other voluntary programs due to annual public reports of the environmental performance and targets for improvements. We use official firm-level production census data on the German manufacturing sector, a major energy consumer and emitter in Europe. To account for the self-selection of firms, we combine the Coarsened Exact Matching approach with a Difference-in-Differences estimation. Our results do not suggest reductions of firms' CO2 intensity and energy intensity neither before nor after certification. Moreover, program participants do not increase renewable energy consumption or investments into the protection of the environment and climate. Our results are robust to a variety of checks and call into question the effectiveness of the EMAS program concerning these particular outcome variables.
    Keywords: Voluntary Environmental Programs,Firm-level Energy Behavior,Matching Difference-in-Differences
    JEL: Q58 Q54 Q48
    Date: 2019
  7. By: Mariia Belaia
    Abstract: Until recently, analysis of optimal global climate policy has focused on mitigation. Exploration of policies to meet the 1.5{\deg}C target have brought carbon dioxide removal (CDR), a second instrument, into the climate policy mainstream. Far less agreement exists regarding the role of solar geoengineering (SG), a third instrument to limit global climate risk. Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) studies offer little guidance on trade-offs between these three instruments because they have dealt with CDR and SG in isolation. Here, I extend the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and Economy (DICE) to include both CDR and SG to explore the temporal ordering of the three instruments. Contrary to implicit assumptions that SG would be employed only after mitigation and CDR are exhausted, I find that SG is introduced parallel to mitigation temporary reducing climate risks during the era of peak CO2 concentrations. CDR reduces concentrations after mitigation is exhausted, enabling SG phasing out.
    Date: 2019–03
  8. By: Robert Vermeulen; Edo Schets; Melanie Lohuis; Barbara Kölbl; David-Jan Jansen; Willem Heeringa
    Abstract: This paper presents a comprehensive framework for analyzing financial stress under scenarios with a disruptive transition to a low-carbon economy. This stress testing framework is designed to be readily applied by macroprudential supervisors or financial institutions. First, we construct stress scenarios using two dimensions: climate policy and energy technology. Then, we rely on various modeling approaches to derive macroeconomic and industry-specific implications. These approaches include a novel methodology for capturing industry-specific transition risks. Third, we disaggregate EUR 2.3 trillion in assets of more than 80 Dutch financial institutions by industry. Finally, our calculations show that financial losses can be sizeable, as portfolio values can decline by up to 11%. These outcomes suggest that climate-transition risks warrant close and timely attention from a financial stability perspective.
    Keywords: climate transition risk; uncertainty; stress test; financial stability
    JEL: G01 G20 Q43 Q54
    Date: 2019–02
  9. By: Sofia Teives Henriques (Lund University); Paul Sharp (University of Southern Denmark, CAGE, CEPR)
    Abstract: We provide a natural resource explanation for the divergence of the Portuguese economy relative to other European countries before the Second World War, based on a considerable body of contemporary sources. First, we demonstrate that a lack of domestic resources meant that Portugal experienced limited and unbalanced growth during the age of steam. Imports of coal were prohibitively expensive for inland areas, which failed to industrialize. Coastal areas developed through steam, but were constrained by limited demand from the interior. Second, we show that after the First World War, when other coal-poor countries turned to hydro-power, Portugal relied on coal-based thermal-power, creating a vicious circle of high energy prices and labor-intensive industrialization. We argue that this was the result of (i) water resources which were relatively expensive to exploit; and (ii) path-dependency, whereby the failure to develop earlier meant that there was a lack of capital and demand from industry.
    Keywords: Industrial Revolution, natural resources, coal, electrification, energy prices
    JEL: N1 N5 N7 O13 Q4
    Date: 2019–03
  10. By: Plante, Michael D. (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas); Strickler, Grant (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
    Abstract: We show that the oil market has become closer to “one great pool,” in the sense that price differentials between crude oils of different qualities have generally become smaller over time. We document, in particular, that many of these quality-related differentials experienced a major structural break in or around 2008, after which there was a marked reduction in their means and, in many cases, volatilities. Several factors explain these shifts, including a growing ability of the global refinery sector to process lower-quality crude oil and the U.S. shale boom, which has unexpectedly boosted the supply of high-quality crude oil. Differentials between crude oils of similar quality in general did not experience breaks in or around 2008, although we do find evidence of breaks at other times. We also show that these structural breaks can affect tests of stationarity for many price differentials.
    Keywords: crude oil price differentials; oil; structural breaks; stationarity
    JEL: C22 Q40
    Date: 2019–02–05
  11. By: Philip Ulrich (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research); Dr. Ulrike Lehr (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research); Dr. Christian Lutz (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)
    Abstract: Die Energiewende hat eine Vielzahl von wirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen. Versteht man sie als Summe aller Maßnahmen, Instrumente und Strategien der Bundesregierung zur sicheren, umweltverträglichen und bezahlbaren Bereitstellung von Energie seit 2000, so hatte sie erheblichen Einfluss auf die Energiepreise, den Energieträgermix, den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien und die Zunahme der Energieeffizienz in den meisten Nachfragebereichen. Lutz et al. (2018) kommen in ihrem Bericht zu den gesamtwirtschaftlichen Wirkungen der Energiewende zu dem Schluss, dass „der Vergleich der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Ergebnisse der beiden Szenarien „mit und ohne“ Energiewende, EWS und KFS, im Modell PANTA RHEI durchgehend positive Effekte der Energiewende insgesamt [zeigt]“. Wie aber verteilt sich dieses vielversprechende Ergebnis auf die Bundesländer? Welches Bundesland hat mehr von den positiven Effekten der Energiewende und warum? Zur Beantwortung gilt es, die speziellen Strukturen der Bundesländer, die auf charakteristische Weise auf die Energiewende reagieren, zu identifizieren und datengestützt aufzubereiten. Mit dem in der vorliegenden Untersuchung vorgeschlagenen methodischen Ansatz lassen sich die Auswirkungen der Energiewende von der Bundesebene auf die Bundesländer projizieren. Damit dies über ein einfaches Aufteilen der Effekte hinausgeht, ist eine Vielzahl an Annahmen, wirtschaftsstrukturellen Überlegungen und bundeslandspezifischen Daten notwendig. Die GWS verfügt über ein auf Bundesländer regionalisiertes ökonomisches Modell (LÄNDER, vgl. Anhang), das die Modelle wie PANTA RHEI auf Bundesebene ergänzt. Es basiert auf einer Fülle regionaler Daten wie den Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnungen der Länder. Eine Auswertung der bundesweiten Szenarien mittels dieses Instrumentariums gibt einen Einblick in die strukturellen Wirkungen der Energiewende in den Bundesländern. Um die Energiewende in ihren Wirkungen auf Bundeslandebene besser zu verstehen, werden ihre beiden wichtigsten Säulen herausgegriffen und getrennt untersucht. Am Beispiel der Gebäudesanierung und der Stromerzeugungsinfrastruktur eines Bundeslandes werden die wirtschaftlichen Reaktionen auf Veränderungen durch die Energiewende aufgezeigt und untersucht.
    Keywords: Gesamtwirtschaft, Energiewende, Bundesländer
    JEL: Q43 Q48 R5
    Date: 2018
  12. By: Harkat, Tahar
    Abstract: The current paper assesses the link between natural gas consumption (NGC) and macroeconomic variables for the period between 1980 and 2018 in the Mediterranean region. Analyses accounts for assessing the significance of the natural gas consumption on the industry value added (IVA) using fixed-effects panel data regression. In addition to that, this contribution evaluates the causal link between the variables cited above. Empirical findings indicate that there is a significant relationship between IVA and NGC. Furthermore, these two latter variables showcase a mutual causality in a sense that an increase in each of these variables will lead to the increase of the other one. Results also indicate that GDP causes the increase in natural gas consumption
    Keywords: Mediterranean Region, Causality, Panel Data, Fixed-Effect, Granger Causality, Industry Value Added, GDP, Natural Gas Consumption
    JEL: L10 O29 O40 Q30 Q38 Q43
    Date: 2019–03–01
  13. By: Cahen-Fourot, Louison; Campiglio, Emanuele; Dawkins, Elena; Godin, Antoine; Kemp-Benedict, Eric
    Abstract: This article develops a novel methodological framework to investigate the exposure of eco- nomic systems to the risk of physical capital stranding. Combining Input-Output (IO) and network theory, we define measures to identify both the sectors likely to trigger relevant capital stranding cascades and those most exposed to capital stranding risk. We show how, in a sample of ten European countries, mining is among the sectors with the highest external asset strand- ing multipliers. The sectors most affected by capital stranding triggered by decarbonisation include electricity and gas; coke and refined petroleum products; basic metals; and transporta- tion. From these sectors, stranding would frequently cascade down to chemicals; metal products; motor vehicles water and waste services; wholesale and retail trade; and public administration. Finally, we provide an estimate for the lower-bound amount of assets at risk of transition-related stranding, which is in the range of 0.6-8.2% of the overall productive capital stock for our sample of countries, mainly concentrated in the electricity and gas sector, manufacturing, and mining. These results confirm the systemic relevance of transition-related risks on European societies.
    Keywords: stranded assets, low-carbon transition, physical capital stocks, fossil fuels, input-output analysis, networks
    Date: 2019–02
  14. By: Dr. Christian Lutz (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research); Lisa Becker (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research); Dr. Ulrike Lehr (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)
    Abstract: Mit der Energiewende (EW) verfolgt Deutschland den langfristigen Umbau des Energiesystems. Der Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien und die Steigerung der Energieeffizienz sind die dabei verfolgten Kernziele. Die Energiewende wirkt gesamtwirtschaftlich positiv (Lutz et al. 2018). Allerdings stellt sich vor dem Hintergrund der sehr robusten gesamt-wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in den letzten Jahren zunehmend die Frage, ob Engpässe und Restriktionen den Erfolg der Energiewende derzeit oder zukünftig teilweise konterkarieren können. Investitionen in die Energiewende sind wichtig, um die Ziele der Energiewende zu erreichen. Im Folgenden wird auf Basis einer Literaturrecherche für Deutschland untersucht, welche gesamtwirtschaftlichen und sozioökonomischen Zusammenhänge hierbei zu beachten sind. Neben den Engpässen bei der Produktion von Energiewendegütern gibt es auch Restriktionen, die in der Energiewende selbst und dem dazu notwendigen Transformationsprozess begründet sind. Dies sind zum einen Pfadabhängigkeiten der Infrastrukturen und Energiewendegüter, die dazu führen, dass bisherige Technologien lange im Einsatz sind und Investitionen in EW-Güter gebremst werden. Zum anderen handelt es sich um Verhaltensweisen, die die Wirksamkeit der Energiewende begrenzen, wie etwa der Rebound-Effekt, durch den der Energieverbrauch weniger stark zurückgeht als gedacht. Ziel dieses Teils des Beitrags ist es vor allem, zu zeigen, dass die Energiewende nicht im luftleeren Raum, sondern vor dem Hintergrund allgemeiner wirtschaftlicher Engpässe und Wachstumschancen stattfindet. Dazu werden nach einer Definition mögliche Engpässe bei der Produktion der EW-Güter aufgezeigt (Abschnitt 2). Anschließend werden in Abschnitt 3 übergreifende Restriktionen für die Energiewende dargestellt. Der Beitrag schließt mit einem Fazit und einem Ausblick auf die Bereiche, in denen eine tiefergehende Analyse und verstärkte Berücksichtigung bei der Gestaltung der Energiewende wünschenswert wären.
    Keywords: Energiewende, Engpässe
    JEL: Q43 Q48
    Date: 2018
  15. By: Tomohito Shinoda (International University of Japan)
    Abstract: Japan has a very strong attachment to the G7/8 economic summit as a founding member. Especially when the Japanese leaders served as the host in 1979-2000, they spent much energy to ensure a successful conclusion of each summit. In order to serve as an effective host, Japanese leaders tried to establish personal ties with other country participants. At the 2008 Toyako Summit, the Japanese government successfully produced an agreement on climate change by coordinating the conflicting interests of the European members and the United States. Although the heated discussions were exchanged at the sherpa meetings, it required personal involvement and strong determination of Prime Minister Fukuda. Fukuda's relationship with the American and Chinese leaders significantly contributed to concluding an agreement.
    Date: 2019–03
  16. By: Hardik A. Marfatia (Department of Economics, Northeastern Illinois University, BBH 344G, 5500 N. St. Louis Ave., Chicago, IL 60625, USA); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Esin Cakan (Department of Economics, University of New Haven, 300 Boston Post Road, West Haven, CT 06516, USA)
    Abstract: In this paper, we assess the dynamic impact of the U.S. monetary policy announcements on oil market futures returns and volatility. We use intra-day data together with a time-varying modeling approach to study the nature of this dynamic impact. In addition, we also control for macroeconomic news shocks and separately study the response of good and bad realized volatility. Evidence suggests that there is a significant time variation in the response of oil returns as well as its volatility to the Federal Reserve policy announcements. Furthermore, we find that higher (lower) uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy actions weakens (strengthens) the impact of the announcements on oil returns and volatility.
    Keywords: Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic Surprises, Oil Returns and Volatility, Time-Varying Model
    JEL: C32 E44 E52 G14 Q43
    Date: 2019–02
  17. By: Majah-Leah V. Ravago (Ateneo de Manila University); Arlan Zandro I. Brucal (Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, The London School of Economics and Political Science); James Roumasset (University of Hawaii); Jan Carlo Punongbayan (University of the Philippines,Diliman)
    Abstract: The Philippines provides an extreme example of Rodrik’s observation that late developing countries experience deindustrialization at lower levels of per capita income than more advanced economies. Previous studies point to the role of protectionist policies, financial crises, and currency overvaluation as explanations for the shrinking share of the industry sector. We complement this literature by examining the role of electricity prices in the trajectory of industry share. We make use of data at the country level for 33 countries over the period 1980-2014 and at the Philippine regional level for 16 regions over the period 1990-2014. We find that higher electricity prices tend to amplify deindustrialization, causing industry share to turn downward at a lower peak and a lower per capita income, and to decline more steeply than otherwise. In a two-country comparison, we find that power intensive manufacturing subsectors have expanded more rapidly in Indonesia, where electricity prices have been low, whereas Philippine manufacturing has shifted toward less power-intensive and more labor-intensive subsectors in the face of high prices.
    Keywords: electricity prices, structural transformation, deindustrialization
    JEL: O10 O14 Q40 Q41
    Date: 2019–02
  18. By: Suwareh Darbo (African Development Bank); Amandine Nakumuryango (African Development Bank)
    Abstract: The objective of this working paper is to investigate the factors contributing to inflation in Sudan in the wake of South Sudan’s secession, which resulted in the loss of 75% of the country’s oil exports. The paper uses a single equation model in a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to investigate the determinants of inflation. The independent variables included in the model are money supply, the nominal effective exchange rate based on the parallel rate, credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP, and crude oil prices. The results indicate that, in the long run, oil prices have a negative effect on inflation while money supply, credit to private sector, and nominal effective exchange rate have positive effects. This underscores the need to manage money supply, the exchange rate, and credit to the private sector, all of which can be influenced by the monetary authorities—that is, the Central Bank of Sudan.JEL classification: E310 E520 E58Keywords: Inflation, money supply, exchange rate, credit, oil prices Sudan, long-run, VECM.
    Date: 2018–06–27
  19. By: Aviral Kumar Tiwari (Montpellier Business School, 2300, Avenue des Moulins, 34185, Montpellier Cedex 4 0002, France); Goodness C. Aye (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa); Konstantinos Gkillas (Department of Business Administration , University of Patras, University Campus, Rio, P.O. Box 1391, 26500 Patras, Greece)
    Abstract: This paper examined the dependence structure and dynamics between gold and oil prices. Specifically, we examined the hedge and safe haven ability of gold for oil prices using the time-varying Markov switching copula models and daily gold prices and West Texas Intermediate Institute (WTI) crude oil spot prices from 2 January 1985 to 30 November 2017. The heterogeneity of market agents is captured by decomposing the raw original series into different multi-resolution analysis (MRA) investment horizons (D1-S9). Further, we examined the effect of geopolitical risks on the dynamic dependence between gold and oil. We provide evidence of time-varying Markov tail dependence structure and dynamics between gold and oil. While our results showed that gold is a good hedge for oil returns and for short- and medium-term investors, it cannot protect long-term investors against losses arising from increasing oil prices. We also provide evidence in support of the safe haven ability of gold for oil. Further, we show that the inclusion of geopolitical risks in a pure gold and oil asset portfolio provides diversification benefits since the former has mostly negative effect on the dependence structure between gold and oil.
    Keywords: Time-Varying Dependence, Gold and Oil Markets, Copula Models, Geopolitical Risks.
    JEL: C22 Q02
    Date: 2019–03
  20. By: Dr. Christian Lutz (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research); Dr. Ulrike Lehr (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research); Lisa Becker (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research); Dr. Barbara Breitschopf (GWS - Institute of Economic Structures Research)
    Abstract: Die erreichten und zukünftigen Fortschritte auf dem Weg zu einem nachhaltigen Energiesystem werden von einer Vielzahl von Untersuchungen und Veröffentlichungen begleitet. Die Energiewende bringt jedoch weitere Vorteile jenseits von Beschäftigung und BIP, die teilweise nur schwer quantitativ und monetär zu erfassen sind, sodass sich der Zusammenhang mit der Energiewende dabei nicht auf den ersten Blick erkennen lässt. Zu diesen nur schwer quantifizierbaren Aspekten der Energiewende ist inzwischen eine umfassende Literatur erschienen, die in diesem Beitrag aufgegriffen und eingeordnet wird. Dabei wird zunächst der Frage nachgegangen, warum der jeweilige Aspekt von Vorteil sein könnte, wie die Energiewende auch in Zukunft zu dieser Vorteilhaftigkeit beitragen wird und was die einschlägige Literatur zu dieser Einschätzung beiträgt. Der Fokus liegt auf Deutschland, aber auch internationale Aspekte der Transformation werden aufgegriffen. Der starke Rückgang der Kosten von den für die Energiewende relevanten Technologien ist gerade auch im globalen Rahmen ein beeindruckender Effekt und Vorteil der Energiewende, weshalb zunächst die Kostenentwicklung der letzten Jahre skizziert wird. Mit den Kostensenkungen bewirken die Veränderung der Energieerzeugungsstruktur ebenso wie die Veränderung des Energieverbrauchs und seiner Struktur teilweise tiefgreifende Änderungen auf Produktionsprozesse, mögliche Gewinne und Kosten in der Industrie, sodass im Anschluss der von der Energiewende ausgehende Strukturwandel beleuchtet wird. Es folgen die wesentlichen Ergebnisse und Argumentationen in Bezug auf Energiesicherheit und im Anschluss außenpolitische Aspekte der Energiewende. Das kurze Fazit fasst die wichtigsten Vorteile der Energiewende zusammen, die nach aktueller Literatur über die quantifizierbaren gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte hinausgehen.
    Keywords: Energiewende, Strukturwandel, Externe Effekte, Technischer Wandel
    JEL: Q43 O3
    Date: 2018
  21. By: C\'elestin Coquid\'e; Leonardo Ermann; Jos\'e Lages; D. L. Shepelyansky
    Abstract: Using the United Nations COMTRADE database we apply the reduced Google matrix (REGOMAX) algorithm to analyze the multiproduct world trade in years 2004-2016. Our approach allows to determine the trade balance sensitivity of a group of countries to a specific product price increase from a specific exporting country taking into account all direct and indirect trade pathways via all world countries exchanging 61 UN COMTRADE identified trade products. On the basis of this approach we present the influence of trade in petroleum and gas products from Russia, USA, Saudi Arabia and Norway determining the sensitivity of each EU country. We show that the REGOMAX approach provides a new and more detailed analysis of trade influence propagation comparing to the usual approach based on export and import flows.
    Date: 2019–03
  22. By: Tibor Hledik; Karel Musil; Jakub Rysanek; Jaromir Tonner
    Abstract: This paper presents a semi-structural quarterly projection open-economy model for analyzing monetary policy transmission and macroeconomic developments in Kazakhstan during the period of the fixed exchange rate regime. The model captures key stylized facts of the Kazakh economy, especially the important role of oil prices in influencing the economic cycle in Kazakhstan. The application of the model to observed data provides a reasonable interpretation of Kazakh economic history, including the global crisis, through to late 2015, when the National Bank of Kazakhstan introduced a managed float. The dynamic properties of the model are analyzed using impulse response functions for selected country-specific shocks. The model’s shock decomposition and in-sample forecasting properties presented in the paper suggest that the model was an applicable tool for monetary policy analysis and practical forecasting at the National Bank of Kazakhstan. In a general sense, the model can be considered an example of a quarterly projection model for oil-rich countries with a fixed exchange rate.
    Keywords: Fixed exchange rate, Kazakhstan, monetary policy, QPM, stylized facts
    JEL: C50 E17 E32 E52 E58
    Date: 2018–10
  23. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: The UAE has successfully weathered recent external shocks, thanks to its large financial buffers, diversified economy, and strong policy response. Continued fiscal and structural reforms to raise productivity while adequately saving oil revenues for future generations over the longer term will help ensure economic resilience and prosperity in the years to come. The economy is starting to recover from the 2015–16 slowdown caused by a decline in oil prices. Growth momentum is expected to strengthen in the next few years, helped by higher oil output, increased public investment, and stepped-up structural reforms. Downside risks have risen, driven by global and regional factors.
    Date: 2019–02–01
  24. By: Amélie Bohas (CRET-LOG - Centre de Recherche sur le Transport et la Logistique - AMU - Aix Marseille Université)
    Abstract: Cinquième séance du cycle "L'impact environnemental du numérique". Les précédents séminaires organisés par France Stratégie dans le cadre de son cycle sur l'impact environnemental du numérique ont permis de dresser un premier bilan de la consommation croissante du numérique, tant en termes de matières premières, que d'énergie en phase de production et d'usage des équipements. Pour réduire l'ensemble de ces impacts, l'éco-conception des équipements et services numériques constitue un puissant levier d'action. Ainsi, l'éco-conception matérielle des équipements numériques pourrait permettre une réparation simplifiée des produits, ainsi que leur réemploi, puis un recyclage efficace des équipements numériques en fin de vie. L'éco-conception des services numériques pourrait, quant à elle, permettre de réduire la quantité d'équipements nécessaires, leurs impacts pendant la phase usage et, dans certains cas, de rallonger leur durée de vie.
    Keywords: Green IT,RSE / Environnement,Produits numériques,Écoconception,Développement Durable,Efficacité énergétique,Innovation
    Date: 2019–02–21

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