nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2019‒01‒21
forty-nine papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  2. Pigou Pushes Preferences: Decarbonisation and Endogenous Values By Linus Mattauch; Cameron Hepburn; Nicholas Stern
  3. Steering the Climate System: An Extended Comment By Linus Mattauch; Richard Millar; Rick van der Ploeg; Armon Rezai; Anselm Schultes; Frank Venmans; Nico Bauer; Simon Dietz; Ottmar Edenhofer; Niall Farrell; Cameron Hepburn; Gunnar Luderer; Jacquelyn Pless; Fiona Spuler; Nicholas Stern FBA; Alexander Teytelboym
  4. Are fiscal rules helpful in mitigating the impact of oil market fluctuations? By Fuad Mammadov; Shaig Adigozalov
  5. Effective energy commodities’ risk management: Econometric modeling of price volatility By Halkos, George; Tzirivis, Apostolos
  6. Structural Budget Balances in Oil-rich Countries: The Cases of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia By Vugar Ahmadov; Ulvi Sarkarli; Ramiz Rahmanov
  7. Impact of Decentralized Electrification Projects on Sustainable Development: A Meta-Analysis By Jean-Claude Berthelemy; Arnaud Millien
  8. The Rebound Effect and its representation in Climate and Energy models By Colmenares, Gloria; Löschel, Andreas; Madlener, Reinhard
  9. Accès universel et durable à l'électricité au Sénégal By Ahmadou Saïd Ba
  10. Threshold Policy Effects and Directed Technical Change in Energy Innovation By Lionel Nesta; Elena Verdolini; Francesco Vona
  11. Cambodia's Oil and Gas Activities and Future Outlooks By Nguon, Ponhneath
  12. Power Markets in Transition: Decarbonization, Energy Efficiency, and Short-Term Demand Response By Mathias Mier; Christoph Weissbart
  13. On the power of indicators: how the choice of fuel poverty indicator affects the identification of the target population By Florian Fizaine; Sondès Kahouli
  14. A social cost of carbon for (almost) every country By Richard S.J. Tol
  15. The deterrence effect of linear versus convex penalties in environmental policy: laboratory evidence By Caffera, Marcelo; Chávez, Carlos; Ardente, Analía
  16. PESETA III: Climate change impacts on labour productivity By Simon Gosling; Jamal Zaherpour; Dolores Ibarreta
  17. Quelles politiques de tarification et solutions de comptage pour l'autoconsommation ? By Ahmadou Saïd Ba
  18. Fossil Fuels in Economic Theory - Back to the 19th century British Debates By Antoine Missemer
  19. Les études hédoniques soutiennent-elles une valeur verte élevée dans le bâtiment ? Une réponse par la méta-analyse By Florian Fizaine; Pierre Voye; Catherine Baumont
  20. Energy Market Integration and Electricity Trade: A gravity model By Elisa Trujillo
  21. Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2018: Sectoral mitigation options towards a low-emissions economy By Kimon Keramidas; Stephane Tchung-Ming; Ana Raquel Diaz-Vazquez; Matthias Weitzel; Toon Vandyck; Jacques Despres; Andreas Schmitz; Luis Rey Los Santos; Krzysztof Wojtowicz; Burkhard Schade; Bert Saveyn; Antonio Soria-Ramirez
  22. Estadísticas del subsector eléctrico de los países del Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA), 2017 By -
  23. Evaluation prospective des politiques de réduction de la demande d'énergie pour le chauffage résidentiel By Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet; Cyril Bourgeois; Philippe Quirion; David Glotin
  24. The economic determinants of risk-adjusted social discount rates By Cherbonnier, Frédéric; Gollier, Christian
  25. Does Information Break the Political Resource Curse? Experimental Evidence from Mozambique By Alex Armand, Alexander Coutts, Pedro C. Vicente,Inês Vilela
  26. The energy policy of the Republic of Senegal By Ahmadou Saïd Ba
  27. POLES-JRC model documentation - Updated for 2018 By Jacques Despres; Kimon Keramidas; Andreas Schmitz; Alban Kitous; Burkhard Schade; Ana Raquel Diaz-Vazquez; Silvana Mima; Hans Peter Russ; Tobias Wiesenthal
  28. Eyes on the Price: Which Power Generation Technologies Set the Market Price? Price Setting in European Electricity Markets: An Application to the Proposed Dutch Carbon Price Floor By Blume-Werry, Eike; Faber, Thomas; Hirth, Lion; Huber, Claus; Everts, Martin
  29. How to Use Oil Revenues Efficiently By Shantayanan Devarajan
  30. Instruments de soutien au financement des énergies renouvelables en Afrique sub-saharienne By Ahmadou Saïd Ba
  31. A Multidimensional Approach to Measuring Fuel Poverty By Dorothée Charlier; Bérangère Legendre
  32. R&I and Low-carbon investment in Apulia, Italy: The RHOMOLO assessment By Olga Diukanova; Giovanni Mandras; Andrea Conte; Simone Salotti
  33. Real-Time Carbon Accounting Method for the European Electricity Markets By Bo Tranberg; Olivier Corradi; Bruno Lajoie; Thomas Gibon; Iain Staffell; Gorm Bruun Andresen
  34. Learning by Viewing? Social Learning, Regulatory Disclosure, and Firm Productivity in Shale Gas By T. Robert Fetter; Andrew L. Steck; Christopher Timmins; Douglas Wrenn
  35. The Implication of B20 Policy on Environment By Dian Iriani, Latifah; Widodo, Tri
  36. Nuclear Decommissioning after the German Nuclear Phase-Out: An Integrated View on New Regulations and Nuclear Logistics By Tim Scherwath; Ben Wealer; Roman Mendelevitch
  37. The role of unmet demand in the dynamics of energy supply forms: The case of electricity market structures in sub-Saharan Africa By Alexis Vessat
  38. From Forward to Spot Prices: Producers, Retailers and Loss Averse Consumers in Electricity Markets By Di Cosmo, Valeria; Trujillo-Baute, Elisa
  39. Emerging trends in the use of technology as a driver of the transition to formality Experiences from Asia and the Pacific By Bhattarai, Tejeshwi Nath.
  40. Analyse de la politique d'efficacité énergétique du Sénégal By Ahmadou Saïd Ba
  41. Technological Spillover Effects of State Renewable Energy Policy: Evidence from Patent Counts By Wancong Fu; Chong Li; Jan Ondrich; David Popp
  42. Effects of attribute-based regulation on technology adoption: The case of feed-in tariffs for solar photovoltaic By Germeshausen, Robert
  43. Are Energy Executives Rewarded For Luck? By Lucas W. Davis; Catherine Hausman
  44. Generating density grids of services and utilities in Europe based on Point of Interest (POI) data By Ricardo Ribeiro Barranco; Filipe Batista; Carlo Lavalle
  45. Hicksian Traverse Revisited: Conditions for the Energy Transition By Adrien Nguyen-Huu; Antonin Pottier
  46. Estimating the value of flexibility from real options: On the accuracy of hybrid electricity price models By Benjamin Botor; Benjamin Boecker; Thomas Kalabis; Christoph Weber
  47. Does environmental heterogeneity affect the productive efficiency of grid utilities in China? By Liu, X-Y.; Liu, L-Q.; Xie, B-C.; Pollitt, M.
  48. El desafío del sector transporte en el contexto del cumplimiento de las contribuciones determinadas a nivel nacional de América Latina By Martínez Salgado, Hilda
  49. Competing Land Uses and Fossil Fuel, Optimal Energy Conversion Rates During the Transition Toward a Green Economy Under a Pollution Stock Constraint By Amigues, Jean-Pierre; Moreaux, Michel

  1. By: Dorothée Charlier (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc); Sondès Kahouli (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO - Université de Brest - IUEM - Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UBO - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The residential energy demand is growing steadily and the trend is expected to continue in the near future. At the same time, under the impulse of economic crises and environmental and energy policies, many households have experienced reductions in real income and higher energy prices. In the residential sector, the number of fuel-poor households is thus expected to rise. A better understanding of the determinants of residential energy demand, in particular of the role of income and the sensitivity of households to changes in energy prices, is crucial in the context of recurrent debates on energy efficiency and fuel poverty. We propose a panel threshold regression (PTR) model to empirically test the sensitivity of French households to energy price fluctuations-as measured by the elasticity of residential heating energy prices-and to analyze the overlap between their income and fuel poverty profiles. The PTR model allows to test for the non-linear effect of income on the reactions of households to fluctuations in energy prices. Thus, it can identify specific regimes differing by their level of estimated price elasticities. Each regime represents an elasticity-homogeneous group of households. The number of these regimes is determined based on an endogenously PTR-fixed income threshold. Thereafter, we analyze the composition of the regimes (i.e. groups) to locate the dominant proportion of fuel-poor households and analyse their monetary poverty characteristics. Results show that, depending on the income level, we can identify two groups of households that react differently to residential energy price fluctuations and that fuel-poor households belong mostly to the group of households with the highest elasticity. By extension, results also show that income poverty does not necessarily mean fuel poverty. In terms of public policy, we suggest focusing on income heterogeneity by considering different groups of households separately when defining energy efficiency measures. We also suggest paying particular attention to targeting fuel-poor households by examining the overlap between fuel and income poverty.
    Keywords: Residential energy demand,Income non-linearities,Price elasticity,Fuel poverty,Panel threshold regression,France
    Date: 2018
  2. By: Linus Mattauch; Cameron Hepburn; Nicholas Stern
    Abstract: Avoiding unmanageable climate change implies that global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced rapidly. A significant body of literature shows that policy instruments such as carbon prices can make an important contribution to this goal. In contrast, changes in preferences or values are rarely considered, even though other major socioeconomic transitions - such as those from reducing smoking and drink-driving - have succeeded partly because values have changed. This article examines the impact of climate policy-induced changes in consumers’ values. We demonstrate that when changes in values through policies occur, and are not accounted for, such policies are inefficient. First, target-achieving carbon taxes must be adjusted if they crowd-in or -out social preferences. Second, when the urban built environment changes mobility preferences, low-carbon infrastructure investments are more valuable. Third, policy-induced changes in preferences for active travel and low-meat diets could increase the net benefits of the transition to zero emissions, in turn affecting optimal policy.
    Keywords: climate change, carbon pricing, endogenous preferences, crowding-in, transport infrastructure, health co-benefit
    JEL: A12 D91 H23 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2018
  3. By: Linus Mattauch; Richard Millar; Rick van der Ploeg; Armon Rezai; Anselm Schultes; Frank Venmans; Nico Bauer; Simon Dietz; Ottmar Edenhofer; Niall Farrell; Cameron Hepburn; Gunnar Luderer; Jacquelyn Pless; Fiona Spuler; Nicholas Stern FBA; Alexander Teytelboym
    Abstract: Lemoine and Rudik (2017) argue that it is efficient to delay reducing carbon emissions, because there is substantial inertia in the climate system. However, this conclusion rests upon misunderstanding the relevant climate physics: there is no substantial lag between CO2 emissions and warming, which policy could rely upon. Applying a mainstream climate physics model to the economics of Lemoine and Rudik (2017) invalidates the article’s implications for climate policy: the cost-effective carbon price that limits warming to a range of targets including 2 oC starts high and increases at the interest rate.
    JEL: H23 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2018
  4. By: Fuad Mammadov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Shaig Adigozalov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic)
    Abstract: In this paper we empirically examined the role of fiscal rules in mitigating the impact of oil market fluctuations in resource-rich economies using a structural panel VAR framework following Pedroni (2013) and incorporating identification scheme of Kilian (2009). Our key findings can be summarized as: l) oil exporting developing countries exhibit procyclical respond to positive oil market specific demand shock, 2) there are significant cross-country differences in the way governments respond to the oil market shocks, 3) fiscal rules mitigate the shocks and generate fiscal discipline only if when all fiscal rules are imposed simultaneously, 4) we couldn’t identify any significant role of wealth funds as a budget stabilization policy.
    Keywords: Fiscal rule, structural panel VAR, oil shocks
    JEL: C12 C22 C23 E62
    Date: 2017–03–15
  5. By: Halkos, George; Tzirivis, Apostolos
    Abstract: The current study emphasizes on the importance of the development of an effective price risk management strategy regarding energy products, as a result of the high volatility of that particular market. The study provides a thorough investigation of the energy price volatility, through the use of GARCH type model variations and the Markov-Switching GARCH methodology, as they are presented in the most representative academic researches. A large number of GARCH type models are exhibited together with the methodology and all the econometric procedures and tests that are necessary for developing a robust and precise forecasting model regarding energy price volatility. Nevertheless, the present research moves another step forward, in an attempt to cover also the probability of potential shifts in the unconditional variance of the models due to the effect of economic crises and several unexpected geopolitical events into the energy market prices.
    Keywords: Energy commodities, WTI oil, Brent oil, electricity, natural gas, gasoline, risk management, volatility modeling, ARCH-GARCH models, Markov-Switching GARCH models.
    JEL: C01 C58 D8 G3 O13 P28 Q43 Q47 Q58
    Date: 2018–12
  6. By: Vugar Ahmadov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Ulvi Sarkarli (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Ramiz Rahmanov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic)
    Abstract: This study aims to analyze discretionary fiscal policy in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia for the period of 2003-2015 using structural fiscal balance (SBB). SBB takes into the consideration the permanent component of oil revenue and therefore clearly defines the discretionary fiscal position and the aggregate demand effect of fiscal policy. The structural balances in Azerbaijan and Russia experience deficit for the most of the analyzed period. The moderate level of SBB surplus is observed in Kazakhstan. The estimated SBBs also demonstrate that fiscal policies tend to be mainly pro-cyclical in Kazakhstan and Russia. Azerbaijan conducted counter-cyclical fiscal policy for the half of the investigated period. Moreover, governments gave more importance to economic stabilization in 2009 due to the global financial crises.
    Keywords: fiscal policy, structural budget balance, oil-rich countries, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia
    JEL: E62 H60
    Date: 2017–12–05
  7. By: Jean-Claude Berthelemy (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International); Arnaud Millien (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International)
    Abstract: This paper is the first product of a project which aims to build a Collaborative Smart Mapping of Mini-grid Action (CoSMMA), whose principal objective is to identify best practice in decentralized electrification projects. Using evaluations of 421 projects, from published research papers, we built a pilot CoSMMA which proves its feasibility. Its relevance is demonstrated by a meta-analysis, which reveals the principal characteristics of decentralized electrification projects which have positive impacts on sustainable development. Four main characteristics were considered: technology (source or energy), system size (power), decision level (from local to country level) geographic location. When searching for best practices, technology and system size must be considered together, because the chosen technology may constrain the power, which is provided by the system. We find that the most popular projects, which are based on Solar Home Systems (SHS) are not the most effective. The problem with SHS is not the use of solar energy, but the small system size often chosen for SHS. Mini-grids, of larger size, especially those which use hybrid renewable sources of energy, have more positive impacts, because these systems combine the benefits of sustainability and flexibility. In terms of decision level, we find that both top-down and bottom-up approaches have advantages, with the observation of a U-shaped curve for the influence of the decision level on the probability of obtaining positive impacts. Geographical location matters, as it is very often the key to system feasibility. We find that DEPs are more effective in Latin America than in Asia, and more effective in Asia than in Africa. We also attempted to study the type of effects resulting from DEPs. Descriptive data suggest that for some types of effects, positive impacts are more likely than for others. Decentralized electrification projects have a more positive impact on Lifestyle & NICT or Household agenda than on Economic transformation or Community life. However, this pilot CoSMMA does not contain enough information to study precisely the types of effects, because some types of effects have not been studied frequently in the existing literature. This is the case, for instance, for environmental effects, which have been rarely measured scientifically. Finally, we attempted to broaden our information set by including expert data, which was entered into the CoSMMA meta-analysis. We define expert data as data that are not supported by statistical tests with measures of significance, whereas the evaluations based on scientific data were supported by statistical tests of significance. The expert data may be valid, but our attempt to include it in the analysis failed at this stage. The determinants of unproven effects appear to be quite different from the determinants of proven effects in our meta-analysis, and using expert data would imply merging proven and unproven effects, which would totally blur the conclusions.
    Keywords: decentralized electrification,sustainable developement,impact assessment,meta-analysis,méta-analyse,électrification décentralisée,développement durable,évaluation d'impact
    Date: 2018–12
  8. By: Colmenares, Gloria (University of Muenster); Löschel, Andreas (University of Muenster); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))
    Abstract: In this paper, we review the state-of-the-art and common practice of energy and climate modeling vis-a-vis the rebound literature, in particular regarding how macroeconomic energy and climate models quantify and include energy and greenhouse gas rebound effects. First, we focus on rebound effects in models of costless energy efficiency improvement that hold other attributes constant (zero-cost breakthrough), and an energy efficiency policy that may be bundled with other product changes that affect energy use (policy-induced efficiency improvement) (Gillingham et al. 2015). Second, we examine macroeconomic studies focusing on energy efficiency both in industry and in private households. Third, we go through a general theoretical revision from micro- to macroeconomic levels (the aggregation level) to include a review of the so-called meso-level studies (focused on the analysis of the production side). From 118 recent studies along the aggregation level, out of which 25 compute rebound calculations, we find that the average energy rebound effect is 58% with a standard deviation of 58%, and when we include green house gas rebound calculations, the magnitude is of the order of 43% with a standard deviation of 55%. Finally, we argue that the rebound effect is a phenomenon that requires a sound understanding of the complex interactions from different dimensions (e.g. aggregation level, heterogeneity, climate, energy conservation and economic growth), and we provide some ideas and motivations for future research.
    Keywords: Rebound effect; Macroeconomic models; Energy efficiency; Energy policy
    JEL: E13 Q41 Q43 Q48 Q54 R13
    Date: 2018–12
  9. By: Ahmadou Saïd Ba (Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Research University)
    Abstract: Dans sa quête d'un accès universel à l'électricité, le Sénégal a mis en place un système pionnier en matière d'électrification rurale par le biais de concessions d'électrification rurale (CER) et de projets d'électrification rurale d'initiative locale (ERIL). Si l'électrification rurale progresse depuis dix ans, les projets qui la portent rencontrent un problème de soutenabilité qui entrave la réalisation de l'objectif du pays d'atteindre un taux d'électrification de 100% d'ici 2025. En 2017, le taux d'électrification national était de 60% contre 53% en 2010. Le taux d'électrification dans les zones urbaines du Sénégal atteignait déjà 90% en 2009 alors que, dans les zones rurales, il demeurait proche de 30% en 2015, en raison des résultats décevants du plan d'action pour l'électrification rurale (PASER) qui reposait sur la création de 10 zones de concession d'électrification rurale à gérer par le secteur privé. Ce modèle, bien qu'innovant et malgré les promesses découlant de l'attribution de 6 zones de concession au départ, a rencontré de nombreuses difficultés et obstacles. L'objectif de cette étude est donc d'analyser la pertinence de la politique énergétique actuelle du Sénégal au regard de ses ambitions d'accès universel à l'électricité et des principaux défis auxquels le pays doit faire face, comme l'indépendance énergétique et la sécurité d'approvisionnement face à la croissance de la demande, le besoin d'investissement massif en infrastructures et le changement climatique. Pour ce faire, l'étude a été divisée en 4 parties. La première présente un aperçu du pays, y compris de ses fondamentaux macroéconomiques. La seconde est un résumé de la situation actuelle de l'offre et de la demande d'électricité du Sénégal. La troisième explore sa stratégie pour un accès universel durable à l'électricité, y compris ses objectifs, les stratégies déployées et les cadres institutionnels et réglementaires qui la sous-tendent. La dernière est une analyse critique détaillée de cette stratégie, de l'évaluation des résultats aux suggestions d'amélioration après avoir mis en évidence les obstacles et les risques auxquels elle est confrontée.
    Keywords: Centrale hybride,Transport,Production décentralisée et réseau de distribution,Distribution,Lignes BT,Lignes MT,Lignes THT,Infrastructure,PAYG,Electrification décentralisée,SENELEC,ASER,LDPSE,PNER,PANEE,PUDC,IPP,Secteur privé,Sénégal,CER,ERIL,Electrification rurale,Accès universel,Energies Renouvelables,Concessions,Efficacité énergétique,Off-Grid,Micro-Grid,Mini-Grid,Tarification,Compensation,Harmonisation,Subventions croisées,Subventions,Cadre institutionnel,Cadre réglementaire,Financement,Investissement,Mini-réseau,Micro-réseau
    Date: 2018–09–11
  10. By: Lionel Nesta (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis - UCA - Université Côte d'Azur - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po); Elena Verdolini (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Milan - affiliation inconnue); Francesco Vona (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)
    Date: 2018–12–07
  11. By: Nguon, Ponhneath
    Abstract: This article aims to reveal studies on Cambodia’s current activities in the oil and gas industry. The paper will be divided into three parts: 1) Distribution of oil and gas resources 2) Current Operations in the oil and gas industry and 3) Conclusion and discussion of the future of the industry.
    Keywords: cambodia oil and gas future outlooks petroleum
    JEL: Q0 Q00 Q01 Q4 Q41 Q47 Q48
    Date: 2018–08–30
  12. By: Mathias Mier; Christoph Weissbart
    Abstract: Energy efficiency and short-term demand response are key issues in the decarbonization of power markets. However, their interaction and combined impact on market prices as well as on the supply side, is yet to be understood. We develop a framework to implement investments in energy efficiency and short-term demand response in detailed partial equilibrium power market models. We quantify our results using the EU-REGEN model for the European power market and find that energy efficiency contributes, under a 80% emission reduction target, only 11% of carbon emission reductions. Intermittent renewable energies such as wind and solar power account for the major share of 53%. However, both energy efficiency and short-term demand response have their merits in reducing marginal abatement costs and additionally exhibit an subadditive effect, at least under a 80% climate policy.
    Keywords: Energy efficiency, demand response, renewable energy, dispatchable technologies, energy modeling, optimal dispatch, investment planning
    JEL: C61 L94 Q41 Q51
    Date: 2019
  13. By: Florian Fizaine (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc); Sondès Kahouli (AMURE - Aménagement des Usages des Ressources et des Espaces marins et littoraux - Centre de droit et d'économie de la mer - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - UBO - Université de Brest - IUEM - Institut Universitaire Européen de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - UBO - Université de Brest - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In light of the creation of the EU Energy Poverty Observatory (EPOV) in January 2018 and the increase in debates on how fuel poverty is measured, we propose a critical analysis of fuel poverty indicators and demonstrate that choosing a given fuel poverty indicator and, in particular, its threshold level, is central to the identification of the fuel-poor population. First, we conducted an inter-indicator analysis to show how profiles of fuel-poor households vary depending on the indicator selected. More specifically, after identifying groups of affected households using a set of objective and subjective indicators, we designed a multidimensional approach based on a combination of a multiple correspondence analysis and a hierarchical and partitioning clustering analysis to study their characteristics. Using this framework, we highlight the difficulty of identifying a "typical profile" of fuel-poor households due to the significant variability in their characteristics, and we show that the composition of the population depends on the choice of the indicator. Second, we applied an intra-indicator analysis using two objective expenditure-based indicators with thresholds. In particular, we conducted a sensitivity analysis based on a logit model including variables describing household and dwelling characteristics. We show that the profiles of fuel-poor households as well as the drivers of fuel poverty vary considerably with the chosen threshold level. Given these findings, we stress the need to review how we currently rely on conventional fuel poverty indicators to identify target groups and give some recommendations.
    Keywords: Fuel poverty,Group identification,Indicator dismantling,Multidimensional analysis,Sensitiv-ity analysis
    Date: 2018
  14. By: Richard S.J. Tol (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam; Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam; CESifo, Munich; Payne Institute for Earth Resources, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, Colorado)
    Abstract: This paper uses imputed national climate change impact functions to estimate national social costs of carbon, which are largest in poor countries with large populations. The national social costs of carbon of faster growing economies are less sensitive to the pure rate of time preference and more sensitive to the rate of risk aversion. The pattern of national social costs of carbon is not sensitive to the assumed impact function, climate sensitivity, and scenario, although the global social cost of carbon is. Income convergence raises the national social costs of carbon of poorer countries, and lowers them for richer countries. Both global and national social costs of carbon are most sensitive to the income elasticity of climate change impacts.
    Keywords: climate change, Pigou tax, climate policy, non-cooperation
    JEL: Q54
    Date: 2019–01
  15. By: Caffera, Marcelo; Chávez, Carlos; Ardente, Analía
    Abstract: We study the individual compliance behavior of polluting firms in an experimental setting under two different penalty functions (a linear and a strictly convex) and two different regulatory instruments (emission standards and tradable pollution permits). We find that a convex penalty, as compared to a linear penalty, increases the market price of pollution permits and the violation rate of firms. The effect of the structure of the fine on the price of permits operates through an increase in the ask-prices of sellers, not on the bids by suppliers. With convex penalties, sellers are not willing to sell a permit at a price as low as with linear penalties. We do not observe an effect of convex penalties on the compliance status of firms with emission standards. These results call for attention on the possible effect that the type of penalties may have on the cost-effectiveness of pollution control programs based on tradable pollution permits.
    Keywords: Environmental policy, enforcement, penalty structure, emissions standards, emissions trading, laboratory experiments
    JEL: C91 K42 L51 Q58
    Date: 2018
  16. By: Simon Gosling; Jamal Zaherpour; Dolores Ibarreta (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: This study uses five impact models that describe observed relationships between labour productivity and temperature, with climate model simulations from five climate models under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5), i.e. 25 climate-impact model combinations, to assess the impact of climate change on outdoor and indoor labour productivity respectively, at the national-scale, across Europe. This is the first assessment to use multiple impact models with multiple climate models and to consider the potential effects of adaptation on lowering the impacts relative to no adaptation taking place. Impacts are estimated for the end of century (2071-2100) and near-term (2021-2050), relative to present-day (1981-2010). Impacts are also estimated under a mitigation scenario, where global-mean warming is 2°C relative to pre-industrial. Impacts are assessed with and without adaptation respectively. Planned adaptation is represented as an adjustment in work activities following recommendations by the US Occupational Safety & Health Administration to consider the adjustment of work shifts during hot periods – all labour takes place at night instead of day-time, under the adaptation assumption. Without climate change mitigation and adaptation, daily average outdoor labour productivity could decline by around 10-15% from present-day levels in several southern European countries by the end of the century (Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Macedonia, Portugal, Spain and Turkey). Countries in northern Europe could also see declines in daily average outdoor labour productivity but the declines are considerably smaller than for the southern countries, at around 2-4% (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Norway and Sweden). The magnitude of impact on indoor labour productivity is generally 2-4 percentage points lower than for impacts on outdoor labour productivity, for the three most sensitive impact models, while for the two least sensitive impact models, the differences are smaller. There is uncertainty in the magnitude of projected climate change impacts on labour productivity due to: 1) differences in the projections of climate between different climate models; and 2) the use of different impact models. Both sources of uncertainty are significant. The range in projected impacts due to using multiple climate models is comparable to the range in impacts from using multiple impact models with only one climate model. Adaptation and mitigation have the potential to significantly lessen the impacts of climate change on declines in labour productivity across Europe. For some countries the impacts can be up to around 10 percentage points lower with adaptation than without, for some climate-impact model combinations, at the end of the century under high emissions (e.g. Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Italy, Spain and Turkey). However, the declines in daily average outdoor labour productivity could still be around 5% relative to present-day in these countries (and up to 10% for Greece, with one climate-impact model combination). Whilst the potential benefits of adaptation are clear from this assessment, it is important to be aware of the caveats associated with the adaptation modelling approach employed. These include an assumption of the entire work force engaged in moderate to heavy labour shifting to night-time working, acknowledgment that night-time working can be associated with negative health effects, and potentially higher costs of night-time working due to energy requirements for lighting and higher wages for working unsocial hours. Such a change in working practices is optimistic, but not implausible, since currently around 20% of workers in Europe are employed on shift work involving night work. Limiting global warming to below 2°C (and assuming no adaptation) could avoid a substantial proportion of impacts in the European countries that see the largest impacts without mitigation (Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Macedonia, Portugal, Spain and Turkey). With some climate-impact model combinations the declines in labour productivity can be up to 10 percentage points lower in these countries with mitigation when compared to without mitigation
    Keywords: climate change, labour, productivity, heat stress
    Date: 2018–11
  17. By: Ahmadou Saïd Ba (Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Research University)
    Abstract: Le monde s'est engagé dans une transition énergétique majeure qui entraîne de profonds changements dans la façon dont l'électricité est produite, distribuée et consommée. Les énergies renouvelables, dopées par la baisse des coûts, l'amélioration des technologies et le soutien public, sont au cœur de cette transition. Pour accélérer cette transition, il faut repenser les marchés de l'électricité à plusieurs égards, notamment en adaptant leur organisation et leur fonctionnement afin d'intégrer au mieux la production d'énergie décentralisée, ainsi que des parts plus élevées d'énergies renouvelables intermittentes, solaire et éolienne, notamment. S'appuyant sur les exemples de marchés d'électricité libéralisés les plus en avance, principalement en Amérique du Nord et en Europe, ce document est conçu comme un essai. Il analyse les différentes options de politique de tarification et de comptage adaptés à l'autoconsommation, dans le cadre d'un marché comportant des parts importantes d'énergie renouvelable, intermittente et décentralisée. Après avoir passé en revue les modèles de comptage et de compensation de l'autoconsommation, nous analysons les problèmes que cette dernière pose aux acteurs du marché ainsi qu'aux décideurs-concepteurs de politiques énergétiques. Ensuite, nous passons en revue les principales options de conception tarifaire et de comptage permettant de lever les barrières au développement de l'autoconsommation. Enfin, nous suggérons des options de politique sectorielle susceptibles d'accompagner une croissance durable et efficace, au sens économique du terme, de l'autoconsommation.
    Date: 2018–05–15
  18. By: Antoine Missemer (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The interest of economists in fossil fuel exhaustion dates back to the mid-19th century, when, in Great Britain, W. Stanley Jevons published his 1865 essay on coal. In the subsequent decades, fossil fuels were considered with ambivalence: sometimes as a new theoretical and practical priority, sometimes as a secondary issue to be studied in standard frameworks. This paper explores, through the example of the mining rent, how fossil fuels were (partially) incorporated into economic theory at the time. It also explains why the original British view was finally relegated to the background in the early 20th century, when American economists took part in the discussions.
    Keywords: marginalism,Jevons,mining rent,history of economic thought,fossil fuels
    Date: 2018
  19. By: Florian Fizaine (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc); Pierre Voye (LEDi - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dijon [Dijon] - UB - Université de Bourgogne - UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]); Catherine Baumont (LEDi - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dijon - UB - Université de Bourgogne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: La place majeure occupée par le secteur du bâtiment dans la consommation d'énergie (40%) et les émissions de gaz à effet de serre (1/3 des émissions) explique le développement du débat scientifique axé sur la réduction de l'impact environnemental du bâtit et sur ses leviers. Ces dernières années ont notamment vu croitre une littérature considérable relative à la disposition à payer du public pour les bâtiments « verts » labélisés par des écolabels, cette « valeur verte » étant estimée dans la grande majorité des études via des modèles hédoniques. Dans cet article, nous proposons d'offrir une synthèse de ces résultats dans le cadre d'une méta-analyse portant sur plus d'une cinquantaine d'études à travers le monde. Deux résultats sont produits. Grâce à un modèle à effets aléatoires multi-niveaux et une régression MCO pondérée robuste au regroupement, nous fournissons tout d'abord une estimation moyenne ainsi qu'un intervalle de confiance du premium de prix concédé par les agents économiques (prix de vente) pour accéder à un bâtiment vert. Cette estimation nous permet de corroborer l'intérêt et la pertinence économique de l'investissement dans la rénovation du bâtiment. Toutefois, un important biais de publication semble affecter cette thématique et sa correction amène à une division par deux de la valeur verte immobilière (de 8 à 4 %). Ensuite, nous analysons les facteurs susceptibles d'être à la source de la dispersion des résultats via une méta-régression basée sur différents modérateurs (type de publication, période d'analyse et zone géographique de l'échantillon, technique économétrique employée…). Divers tests statistiques et méthodes alternatives de sélection sont également réalisés pour étayer la robustesse de ces résultats. Nous terminons par un certain nombre de recommandations à destination des recherches futures permettant une meilleure comparabilité des résultats ainsi que par des suggestions aptes à éclairer l'efficacité des politiques publiques visant la soutenabilité du secteur du bâtiment.
    Keywords: labels,certification,efficacité énergétique,bâtiment,modèle hédonique,Méta-analyse
    Date: 2018
  20. By: Elisa Trujillo (Chair of Energy Sustainability (UB), University of Barcelona.)
    Abstract: This paper explores energy trade in the electrical market by proving a solid theoretical model along with a comprehensive empirical analysis. The model rests on standard goods trade gravity models, which we adapt to energy trade in the electrical market. We derive a tractable gravity equation, which we then estimate with standard gravity techniques. We use energy trade ows between European countries to quantify the effect of economic, structural, cultural and institutional variables on energy ows. The results reveal that energy trade determinants are similar to trade in goods, and that standard notion of international economics like comparative advantage emerge in energy economics. However, we observe some distinctive traits. Our results suggest that energy trade ows are mainly driven by demand at the importer due to an increase in economic activity and institutional agreements in the context of energy integration.
    Keywords: gravity equation, electricity trade, Energy Market Integration, European single market
    JEL: F20 F21 F23 Q40 Q43
    Date: 2018–12
  21. By: Kimon Keramidas (European Commission - JRC); Stephane Tchung-Ming (European Commission - JRC); Ana Raquel Diaz-Vazquez (European Commission - JRC); Matthias Weitzel (European Commission - JRC); Toon Vandyck (European Commission - JRC); Jacques Despres (European Commission - JRC); Andreas Schmitz (European Commission - JRC); Luis Rey Los Santos (European Commission - JRC); Krzysztof Wojtowicz (European Commission - JRC); Burkhard Schade (European Commission - JRC); Bert Saveyn (European Commission - JRC); Antonio Soria-Ramirez (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: This report analyses global transition pathways to a low Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions economy The main scenarios presented have been designed to be compatible with the 2°C and 1.5°C temperature targets put forward in the UNFCCC Paris Agreement, in order to minimise irreversible climate damages. Reaching these targets requires action from all world countries and in all economic sectors. Global net GHG emissions would have to drop to zero by around 2080 to limit temperature increase to 2°C above pre-industrial levels (by around 2065 for the 1.5°C limit). The analysis shows that this ambitious low-carbon transition can be achieved with robust economic growth, implying small mitigation costs. Results furthermore highlight that the combination of climate and air policies can contribute to improving air quality across the globe, thus enabling progress on the UN Sustainable Development Goals for climate action, clean energy and good health. Key uncertainties in future pathways related to the availability of future technological options have been assessed for Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) and bioenergy. If CCS technologies would not develop, a 2°C pathway would have a similar mitigation trajectory in the first half of the century as a 1.5°C scenario with CCS.
    Keywords: Paris Agreement, energy sector, Mid-century strategy, Long-Term Strategy, 2°C, 1.5°C, UNFCCC, climate change mitigation
    Date: 2018–12
  22. By: -
    Abstract: Este documento presenta la información completa de la industria eléctrica de los ocho países que conforman el Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA). Se consideran dos grupos de países: a) los seis países que integran el Mercado Eléctrico Regional de América Central aparecen bajo la sigla SIEPAC (Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua y Panamá), y b) bajo la sigla SICA se incluyen los ocho países que conforman el organismo de integración referido (los seis ya mencionados bajo SIEPAC más Belice y la República Dominicana). Se presentan cuadros regionales y nacionales con datos estadísticos de la industria eléctrica, actualizados a 2017, que contienen información de los segmentos de producción y distribución de electricidad, de los dos mercados relevantes de electricidad (mercados mayoristas y regulados) y de las transacciones regionales (para los países del SIEPAC) y binacionales de electricidad (para las transacciones de México hacia Belice y Guatemala).
    Date: 2018–12–27
  23. By: Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech); Cyril Bourgeois; Philippe Quirion (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); David Glotin
    Date: 2018–12–12
  24. By: Cherbonnier, Frédéric; Gollier, Christian
    Abstract: In theory, the measurement of the social value creation of any investment project requires estimating its consumption-based CAPM beta in order to compute its associated risk-adjusted discount rate. In order to assist evaluators to perform this task, we link this social beta to the underlying technical and economic environment of the project, such as the price and income elasticities of the supply and demand for the flow of goods and services generated by the investment. When the consumers’ willingness to pay and the variable production cost are Cobb-Douglas in aggregate income and quantity, the beta of the infrastructure has a flat term structure, and is positive for a normal good. But when the infrastructure has a limited capacity, the term structure of the beta is decreasing. Finally, as an illustration, we explain why an investment in a transfrontier trading infrastructure line should have a negative beta for the country that most often uses the line to export its cheaper good (such as electricity).
    Keywords: Investment valuation; investment decision; CCAPM; risk-adjusted discount rate
    JEL: D61 D92 G11
    Date: 2018–10
  25. By: Alex Armand, Alexander Coutts, Pedro C. Vicente,Inês Vilela
    Abstract: The political resource curse is the idea that natural resources can lead to the deterioration of public policies through corruption and rent-seeking by those closest to political power. One prominent consequence is the emergence of conflict. This paper takes this theory to the data for the case of Mozambique, where a substantial discovery of natural gas recently took place. Focusing on the anticipation of a resource boom and the behavior of local political structures and communities, a large-scale field experiment was designed and implemented to follow the dissemination of information about the newly-discovered resources. Two types of treatments provided variation in the degree of dissemination: one with information targeting only local political leaders, the other with information and deliberation activities targeting communities at large. A wide variety of theory-driven outcomes is measured through surveys, behavioral activities, lab-in-the-field experiments, and georeferenced administrative data about local con- flict. Information given only to leaders increases elite capture and rent-seeking, while infor- mation and deliberation targeted at citizens increases mobilization and accountability-related outcomes, and decreases violence. While the political resource curse is likely to be in play, the dissemination of information to communities at large has a countervailing effect.
    Keywords: Natural Resources, Curse, Natural Gas, Information, Deliberation, Rent-seeking, Mozambique.
    JEL: D72 O13 O55 P16
    Date: 2019–01
  26. By: Ahmadou Saïd Ba (Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Research University)
    Abstract: In 2014, Senegal adopted an accelerated economic development plan called the "Plan Sénégal Emergent" (PSE), or Emerging Senegal Plan (ESP), which rightly relies on the development of the energy sector, among others. The country's energy policy has therefore been revised, in agreement with the ESP, to define a clear vision, with specific objectives and a well-developed strategy. However, its energy consumption was only 0.27 toe, including 230 kWh of electricity, and generated 0.54 tCO2 per capita in 2016. These figures are obviously low and symptomatic of a low-energy economy, characteristic of a developing country. Nevertheless, Senegal's energy consumption has been growing rapidly at + 3.6% / year on average, since 2000, due to the combined effects of economic and demographic growths. In addition, significant offshore oil and gas reserves have recently been discovered in the country, which first production is expected to start in 2021. All of these elements raise a fundamental question: how can a developing country like Senegal, deprived of natural resources since always, succeed in supporting its economic emergence through an ambitious and low-emission energy policy while exploiting its new oil and gas resources? The purpose of this study is therefore to analyze the relevance of Senegal's current energy policy with regards to its ambitions for economic emergence and vis-à-vis the main challenges facing the country like energy independence and security of supply in the face of growing demand, universal access to affordable electricity, and climate change. To do this, the study was divided into 3 parts. The first presents an overview of the country, including its macroeconomic fundamentals. The second details its energy policy, including its objectives, the strategies deployed, and the institutional and regulatory frameworks that underpin it. The third is a detailed critical analysis of this policy, starting with an evaluation of the results and ending with suggestions for improvement.
    Keywords: Energy Access,Renewable Energy,Oil and Gas,Energy independence,Security of Supply,Senegal,Energy Policy,Off-Grid,Compensation,Energy Efficiency,CO2,Emissions,INDC,ESP,Electrification,Tarification,PSE
    Date: 2018–01–23
  27. By: Jacques Despres (European Commission - JRC); Kimon Keramidas (European Commission - JRC); Andreas Schmitz (European Commission - JRC); Alban Kitous (European Commission - JRC); Burkhard Schade (European Commission - JRC); Ana Raquel Diaz-Vazquez (European Commission - JRC); Silvana Mima; Hans Peter Russ (European Commission - JRC); Tobias Wiesenthal (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: This report is a public manual of the POLES-JRC model, the in-house tool of the European Commission for global and long-term analysis of GHG mitigation policies and evolution of energy markets. The model includes a comprehensive description of the energy system and related GHG emissions for a large set of significant economies and residual regions, covering the World and including international bunkers. Through linkage with specialized tools it also provides a full coverage of GHG emissions, including from land use and agriculture, as well as of air pollutants emissions. The POLES-JRC model builds on years of development of the POLES model (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) while adding specific features developed internally to the JRC. Latest modelling upgrades - compared to the 2017 edition of the model documentation - include final energy demand, electricity production, the role of hydrogen as an energy vector, the oil, gas and coal international markets and GHG emission projections. This document presents the Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems (POLES) model of the Joint Research Centre, as used in the 2018 edition of the Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO).
    Keywords: energy, GHG mitigation, model, policy assessment, POLES, market, power, energy supply, energy demand, energy trade, oil market, gas market, coal market, renewables, hydrogen, air pollution, GECO
    Date: 2018–11
  28. By: Blume-Werry, Eike; Faber, Thomas; Hirth, Lion; Huber, Claus; Everts, Martin
    Abstract: Upon discussion of price setting on electricity wholesale markets, many refer to the so-called merit order model. Conventional wisdom holds that during most hours of the year, coal- or natural gas-fired power plants set the price on European markets. In this context, this paper analyses price setting on European power markets. We use a fundamental electricity market model of interconnected bidding zones to determine hourly price-setting technologies for the year 2020. We find a price-setting pattern that is more complex and nuanced than the conventional wisdom suggests: across all researched countries, coal- and natural gas-fired power plants set the price for only 40 per cent of all hours. Other power generation technologies such as wind, biomass, hydro and nuclear power plants as well as lignite-fired plants set the price during the rest of the year. On some markets, the price setting is characterised by a high level of interconnectivity and thus foreign influence – as illustrated by the example of the Netherlands. During some 75 per cent of hours, foreign power plants set the price on the Dutch market, whilst price setting in other more isolated markets is barely affected by foreign markets. Hence, applying the price setting analysis to the proposed Dutch carbon price floor, we show that different carbon prices have little effect on the technological structure of the price-setting units. In this respect, the impacts of the unilateral initiative are limited. There are, however, considerable changes to be observed in wholesale power prices, import/export balances as well as production volumes and subsequent CO2 outputs of lignite-, coal- and gas-fired power plants.
    Keywords: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2019–01–14
  29. By: Shantayanan Devarajan (World Bank)
    Abstract: Oil-rich countries systematically misallocate public expenditures relative to non-oil countries–by favoring consumption over capital, and within consumption, inefficient subsidies and public-sector wages over targeted transfers. Furthermore, for given levels of expenditure, value-for-money is considerably less in oil-rich countries. This paper argues that the reason for this inefficiency is that oil revenues go directly to the government without passing through the hands of the citizens, as is the case with tax revenues. As a result, governments in oil countries are less accountable for public expenditure, which leads to inefficient spending. To improve public-spending efficiency, we propose that all oil revenues be distributed directly to citizens, and the resources that government needs be raised through taxation. We show that such a scheme improves the efficiency of public spending. We consider possible obstacles to such a reform and show that they have been overcome by technology, politics, and global events.
    Date: 2018–05–24
  30. By: Ahmadou Saïd Ba (Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Research University)
    Abstract: On estime que 17% de la population mondiale n'a pas accès à l'électricité et que les combustibles fossiles représentent encore plus de 80% du mix énergétique mondial. La communauté internationale a adopté les objectifs du SEA (Sustainable Energy for All) qui sont de réaliser l'accès universel aux services énergétiques modernes, de doubler le taux mondial d'amélioration de l'efficacité énergétique ainsi que la part des énergies renouvelables dans le bouquet énergétique mondial. Selon l'AIE, ces objectifs nécessiteront une augmentation des investissements énergétiques d'au moins 600 milliards USD par an jusqu'en 2030. Relever le double défi du changement climatique et du manque d'accès à une énergie abordable pour les populations les plus pauvres nécessitera une coopération étroite entre les gouvernements et le secteur privé pour réaliser des investissements massifs, alors même que les prérequis de transparence, de visibilité à long terme et d'assurance font souvent défaut dans les politiques nationales. La création d'un environnement réglementaire stable et attractif dans les pays en développement s'avère donc essentielle pour que le secteur privé puisse réaliser ces investissements. En effet, l'implantation du secteur privé dans de nouveaux marchés est généralement grevée par d'importants coûts d'opportunité du fait que les promoteurs, entreprises de construction, investisseurs et financiers ne connaissent pas ces marchés, leurs spécificités et leurs procédures. Or, investir dans de nouveaux marchés n'a de sens commercial que si l'activité sur ces derniers est au moins aussi attrayante que sur les marchés existants. Dans le cas contraire, les coûts d'opportunité empêchent généralement une allocation des ressources aux nouveaux marchés. Ce document vise à donner un aperçu des instruments de soutien au financement des EnR en Afrique sub-saharienne en s'appuyant sur l'exemple du concept GET FiT et sa mise en œuvre en tant que projet pilote en Ouganda. La première partie traitera des barrières au financement des EnR et des instruments publics permettant de les lever. La seconde partie décrira le concept GET FiT ainsi que son projet pilote en Ouganda, en passant en revue ses principaux mécanismes et ses effets induits. La dernière partie consistera en un bilan d'étape du concept GET FiT incluant une brève analyse critique.
    Keywords: Renewable Energy,Energies renouvelables
    Date: 2018–04–03
  31. By: Dorothée Charlier (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc); Bérangère Legendre (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry] - Université Savoie Mont Blanc)
    Abstract: In this study we suggest that a more careful and systematic understanding of fuel poverty can be developed through a multidimensional approach to the relationship between monetary poverty, residential energy efficiency, and heating restriction. Our objective is to provide new ways to better identify those who suffer the most from fuel poverty to optimize policy. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to measure poverty in three steps following Sen (1979): (i) combining poverty characteristics into an aggregate measure involving a fuel poverty index (FPI), (ii) identification and comparison of poor people according to existing and new definitions and (iii) testing the robustness of the fuel poverty composite indicator. Our results show that the usual measures reveal a gap that does not consider all the dimensions of fuel poverty, excluding those who are at or above a certain threshold, but who are nevertheless vulnerable. The multidimensional approach enables us to consider all the components of fuel poverty.
    Keywords: Fuel poverty,Multidimensional approach,Heating restriction,Thermal discomfort
    Date: 2018
  32. By: Olga Diukanova (European Commission - JRC); Giovanni Mandras (European Commission - JRC); Andrea Conte (European Commission - JRC); Simone Salotti (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: The European Cohesion Policy supports eleven thematic objectives. Four of these are key priorities for the European Regional Development Fund: Research and Innovation (R&I), Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), SME competitiveness, and Low-carbon economy. The European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) is supporting Apulia, Italy, with the design and implementation of Regional Innovation Strategies for Smart Specialisation (RIS3). Quantitative tools such as the RHOMOLO model could help evaluate the impact of funding programmes in different policy areas across European regions. R&I and Low-Carbon ERDF Investments aim at generating sustainable growth and supporting the capacity of regional economies to innovate in line with the Energy Union strategy and the EU's transition to a low-carbon economy. Policy simulations using the RHOMOLO dynamic CGE model show positive macro-economic effects of the ERDF investments related to the R&I and Low-carbon thematic objectives in Apulia both within the region and in its neighbouring regions.
    Keywords: rhomolo, region, growth, impact assessment, modelling, Apulia, Italy, Cohesion Policy, ERDF, investment
    JEL: C54 C68 E62 R13
    Date: 2018–12
  33. By: Bo Tranberg; Olivier Corradi; Bruno Lajoie; Thomas Gibon; Iain Staffell; Gorm Bruun Andresen
    Abstract: Electricity accounts for 25% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing emissions related to electricity consumption requires accurate measurements readily available to consumers, regulators and investors. In this case study, we propose a new real-time consumption-based accounting approach based on flow tracing. This method traces power flows from producer to consumer thereby representing the underlying physics of the electricity system, in contrast to the traditional input-output models of carbon accounting. With this method we explore the hourly structure of electricity trade across Europe in 2017, and find substantial differences between production and consumption intensities. This emphasizes the importance of considering cross-border flows for increased transparency regarding carbon emission accounting of electricity.
    Date: 2018–12
  34. By: T. Robert Fetter; Andrew L. Steck; Christopher Timmins; Douglas Wrenn
    Abstract: In many industries firms can learn about new technologies from other adopters; mandatory disclosure regulations represent an understudied channel for this type of social learning. We study an environmentally-focused law in the shale gas industry to examine firms’ claims that disclosure requirements expose valuable trade secrets. Our research design takes advantage of a unique regulatory history that allows us to see complete information on chemical inputs prior to disclosure, along with the timing of information availability for thousands of wells after disclosure takes effect. We find that firms’ chemical choices following disclosure converge in a manner consistent with inter-firm imitation and that this leads to more productive wells for firms that carefully choose whom to copy — but also a decline in innovation among the most productive firms, whose innovations are those most often copied by other firms. Our results suggest there is a long-run welfare trade-off between the potential benefits of information diffusion and transparency, and the potential costs of reduced innovation.
    JEL: L24 L51 L71 O3 Q53 Q55 Q58
    Date: 2018–12
  35. By: Dian Iriani, Latifah; Widodo, Tri
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of B20 policy, with the aims to reduce fossil oil import and increase production of biofuel, on environment impact. General Trade Analysis Project on Energy and Environment (GTAP E) model is using to analyze its impact. the result shows that reduction of 20 percent on import oil gives positive impact on reduction of carbon dioxode emission. While paddy rice, forestry, vegan fruit and agriculture gives negative impact on commodity market price, and natural resources gives positive impacts.
    Keywords: fossil oil import, environment, GTAP-E
    JEL: Q42 Q48 Q52 Q56 Q58
    Date: 2019–01–07
  36. By: Tim Scherwath; Ben Wealer; Roman Mendelevitch
    Abstract: With Germany’s nuclear phase-out, 23 reactors need to be dismantled in the near future. Initiated by the dire financial situation of the affected utilities in 2014, a major discourse on ensuring financial liability led to a redistribution of liabilities and finances, with the utilities remaining in charge of dismantling, while liability for interim and final storage now transferred to the public. This paper assesses whether the new regulation will ultimately be to the benefit of the public. It introduces a two-stage stochastic optimization framework which encompasses the different dismantling phases and resulting waste flows and storage levels of low- and intermediate-level waste (LLW and ILW) as well as the associated costs. Results show that storage risk – proclaimed as a major barrier to efficient decommissioning – is not a major driver for the optimal decommissioning schedule. However, a delay of ten years might now increase interim storage costs borne by the public by over 20%. By contrast, lacking knowledge and limited machinery is a major unaccounted cost driver, which might quickly eat-up the buffer currently included in utility funds in order to deal with dismantling uncertainties. Our analysis reveals the storage gate as the new crucial interface between utilities and the public storage provider.
    Keywords: Nuclear Decommissioning, Nuclear Dismantling, Financial Liability, Nuclear Logistics, Stochastic modeling, Regulation
    JEL: C61 H44 L51
    Date: 2019
  37. By: Alexis Vessat (ART-Dev - Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - UM3 - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The energy sector in sub-Saharan Africa is in a state of flux. Based on an approach borrowed from industrial economics, using historical examples that point to three successive transformations of electricity market structure, our analysis differs from previous studies by looking at demand as a consequence of supply. Our results show, an extremely fragmented demand for energy in sub-Saharan African countries, within which a very dynamic unmet demand drives change in how supply is offered. New forms of energy provisioning introduced on the electricity market put into question the initial ongrid network model. The appearance of decentralized electricity production shows that there is a potential for going beyond current limitations and moving away from a supply structure focused on the maintenance and improvement of on-grid networks without consideration of the needs of rural populations on one hand, and on the other hand, the establishment of expensive mini-grids that provide inferior energy services to rural populations. New territorial linkages focus on mechanisms seen in energy demand.
    Keywords: Centralized electricity production,electricity market reform,sub-Saharan Africa,decentralized mini- and off-grid production systems,demand fragmentation,supply dynamics and changes,rural electricity demand,access to electricity
    Date: 2017–11–28
  38. By: Di Cosmo, Valeria; Trujillo-Baute, Elisa
    Abstract: The benefits of smoothing demand peaks in the electricity market has been widely recognised. European countries such Spain and some of the Scandinavian countries have recently given to the consumers the possibility to face the spot prices instead of having a fixed tariffs determined by retailers. This paper develops a theoretical model to study the relations between risk averse consumers, retailers and producers, both in the spot and in the forward markets when consumers are able to choose between fixed tariffs and the wholesale prices. The model is calibrated on a real market case - Spain - where since 2014 spot tariffs were introduced beside the flat tariffs for household consumers. Finally, simulations of agents behavior and markets performance, depending on consumers risk aversion and the number of producers, are used to analyse the implications from the model. Our results show that the quantities the retailers and the producers trade in the forward market are positively related with the loss aversion of consumers. The quantities bought by the retailers in the forward market are negatively related with the skewness of the spot prices. On the contrary, quantity sold forward by producers are positively related with the skewness of the spot prices (high probability of getting high prices increase the forward sale) and with the total market demand. In the spot market, the degree of loss aversion of consumers determine the quantity the retailers buy in the spot market but does not have a direct effect on the spot prices.
    Keywords: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2019–01–14
  39. By: Bhattarai, Tejeshwi Nath.
    Abstract: Informality trends across labour markets are likely to be affected by the rising diffusion of technology in many ways. On the one hand, there are apprehensions concerning the risks of job losses due to increasing automation of production processes and also fears of increasing technology driven incidences of informal jobs in the formal sector as crowdwork continues to spread. On the other hand, governments are keen to reap development dividends, courtesy of technological advancements. The subject matter of this paper concerns the latter. One way in which technology can aid the transition to formality is by amplifying the impact of policies aimed at driving such transitions. New technologies are therefore being increasingly integrated into public policies, plans, and programmes that are either directly aimed at or indirectly contribute towards driving the transition to formality. This working paper examines such “e-formality” approaches in the Asia Pacific region. It provides an inventory of current of public initiatives, programmes, and policies that have incorporated the use of technology and have either directly or indirectly become vehicles for increased formalization or the transition towards it.
    Date: 2018
  40. By: Ahmadou Saïd Ba (Université Paris-Dauphine, PSL Research University)
    Abstract: Le Sénégal est un pays en développement qui n'a pas de ressources naturelles importantes et qui est situé dans la zone sahélienne du continent africain. C'est donc un pays qui n'est pas, pour ainsi dire, gâté par la nature. Malgré cet état de fait, ce pays a su construire et consolider, depuis son accession à l'indépendance en 1960, une nation, ainsi qu'un état de droit stable et démocratique. Il n'a pas abrité de guerre civile ou de conflit politique violent et a résisté à toutes les sécheresses dans la région, évitant ainsi toute catastrophe humanitaire. Sur le plan économique, il a également su s'adapter aux crises majeures de la seconde moitié du XXe siècle, mais aussi aux dures périodes d'ajustement structurel imposées par le FMI qui ont duré une vingtaine d'années, ainsi qu'à la dévaluation du franc CFA, dont la valeur a été divisée par deux en 1994. Depuis 2014, la croissance moyenne du PIB a été supérieure à 6,5% par an avec une perspective stable jusqu'en 2022 selon le FMI. Cependant, sa consommation d'énergie n'était que de 0,27 Tep, dont 230 kWh d'électricité , et a généré 0,54 tC02/hab en 2016 . Ces chiffres sont évidemment faibles, symptomatiques d'une économie qui ne consomme pas beaucoup d'énergie et caractéristiques d'un pays en développement. Néanmoins, la consommation d'énergie du Sénégal a connu une croissance rapide de + 3,6%/an en moyenne depuis 2000 , en raison des effets combinés des croissances économique et démographique. Dans le même temps, le Sénégal ambitionne de passer d'un taux d'électrification national de 60% en 2017 à l'accès universel à l'électricité en 2030, tout en menant une politique énergétique à faibles émissions. D'emblée, il semble évident que l'atteinte de tels objectifs, avec les contraintes qui lui sont propres, ne pourra se faire sans une politique d'efficacité énergétique adéquate et performante. L'objectif de cette étude est, par conséquent, d'analyser la pertinence de la politique d'efficacité énergétique actuelle du Sénégal, compte-tenu de ses ambitions économiques et des principaux enjeux du pays tels que l'indépendance énergétique et la sécurité d'approvisionnement face à la demande croissante, l'accès universel à une électricité abordable et le changement climatique.
    Keywords: Energy Saving Lamps,Sénégal,Energie renouvelable,Maîtrise de la Demande de l’Energie,Plan d’Actions National pour l’Efficacité Energétique
    Date: 2018–04–16
  41. By: Wancong Fu; Chong Li; Jan Ondrich; David Popp
    Abstract: We examine the effect of in-state and out-of-state renewable energy policies on wind energy patenting. Using a semiparametric fixed-effects Tobit model, we regress patent counts on a series of policy variables within a state and a spatially weighted average for each of these policies implemented in other states. We develop a lower bound for the marginal effects and find important differences across policy types. For renewable portfolio standards, overall demand matters. Policies in other states increase innovation, but own-state policies do not. In contrast, for financial incentives such as tax incentives and subsidy policies, own-state policies induce innovation.
    JEL: C40 O31 Q42 Q48 Q55
    Date: 2018–12
  42. By: Germeshausen, Robert
    Abstract: Feed-in tariffs are a widespread policy instrument to support the diffusion of renewable energy technologies. I investigate the impact of the size-based differentiation of these tariffs on the adoption of residential scale solar photovoltaic (PV) installations in Germany. Exploiting a policy change of administrative size classes for PV systems, I find that (i) the reduction in marginal feed-in tariffs decreases new capacity additions by around 29 per cent, and (ii) differentiated tariffs provide incentives for excess bunching at the ceiling of the smaller size class. Excess bunching decreases newly installed PV capacity additionally by around 14 per cent. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that this may lead to annual efficiency losses that increase over time from about 0.2 to 4.4 per cent of the annual support cost for new small PV installations.
    Keywords: solar photovoltaic,feed-in tariffs,diffusion of renewable energy technologies,attribute-based regulation,bunching analysis
    JEL: O38 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2018
  43. By: Lucas W. Davis; Catherine Hausman
    Abstract: In an influential paper, Bertrand and Mullainathan (2001) show that energy executives are rewarded for high oil prices, which they term pay-for-luck. Almost twenty years later, performance-based pay as a portion of executive compensation has nearly doubled; total executive compensation has also nearly doubled; and new disclosure laws and tax rules have changed the regulatory landscape. In this paper, we examine whether their results and their interpretation continue to hold in this changing environment. We find that executive compensation at U.S. oil and gas companies is still closely tied to oil prices, indicating that executives continue to be rewarded for luck despite the increased availability of more sophisticated compensation mechanisms. This finding is robust to including time-varying controls for the firms' scale of operations, and it holds not only for total executive compensation but also for several of the separate individuals components of compensation, including bonuses. Moreover, we show there is less pay-for-luck in better-governed companies, and that pay-for-luck is asymmetric – rising with increasing oil prices more than it falls with decreasing oil prices. These patterns are more consistent with rent extraction by executives than with maximizing shareholder value.
    JEL: J33 M12 M52 Q34 Q40
    Date: 2018–12
  44. By: Ricardo Ribeiro Barranco (European Commission - JRC); Filipe Batista (European Commission - JRC); Carlo Lavalle (European Commission - JRC)
    Abstract: In this short technical note we describe the production of a set of density maps of facilities and utilities across Europe. This dataset consists of 24 raster grids layers of 500x500 metres with each 500 m2 cell representing the number of Points of Interest (POI) per category, for the 2016 reference year, hereinafter referred as ‘POI density grids’. The work has been carried out in the frame of the Knowledge Centre for Territorial Policies. This dataset was produced in April 2018 in the scope of the collaboration between DG JRC and International Transport Forum (ITF) at the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). It acts as a think tank for global transport policy issues and organises an annual summit of transport ministers. This work outputs will support the analysis of the spatial structure of regions and cities in terms of the supply of key urban services and amenities and will feed into the LUISA Territorial Modelling Platform. In the next section are described the used datasets and the methods deriving the final density grids. Chapter 3 analysis the output results both thematically and spatially, focusing on Paris as example. The conclusions are presented on the final chapter just before the annexes where detailed statistics can be found.
    Keywords: points of interest; POI; density grids; TomTom; europe
    Date: 2018–12
  45. By: Adrien Nguyen-Huu (CEE-M - Centre d'Economie de l'Environnement - Montpellier - FRE2010 - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Montpellier SupAgro - Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier); Antonin Pottier (EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)
    Abstract: In this article, we analyze the transition dynamics, what Hicks called the traverse, from one equilibrium toward another one, and the conditions for such a transfer in a bi-sectoral economy under technological shocks. To this end, we revisit the Hick Traverse model and add to it inter-sectoral relations in the form of intersectoral consumption of energy for both the energy and the manufacturing sector. We investigate two distinct assumptions about consumption behavior of manufactured goods. We show that our model extends Hicks' one and leads to the same condition for a good traverse path, independently from the net energy return. We highlight that energy production technologies nevertheless provide constrains on viable states of the economy and its maximal growth rate, and that energy consumption technologies impact investment and prices crucially.
    Keywords: Hicks Traverse,fixed production technology,equilibrium analysis,traverse analysis,energy economy,sectoral economy
    Date: 2018–12–27
  46. By: Benjamin Botor; Benjamin Boecker; Thomas Kalabis; Christoph Weber (House of Energy Markets and Finance, University of Duisburg-Essen (Campus Essen))
    Abstract: Climate change mitigation requires governmental intervention, but different choices are at hand. While economists in general advocate for first-best instruments, reality looks quite different, with especially many subsidy schemes for renewable energies being used. Supporters of these schemes often argue that investment risk reduction is essential to achieve ambitious environmental targets. In this paper we compare four different instruments (cap, tax, minimum quota and feed-in tariffs/renewable auctions) in terms of efficacy and efficiency and also quantify investment risks, assuming an uncertain investment environment, represented by different information shocks on demand, investment and fuel cost. We use a long-term electricity market equilibrium model (generalized peak load pricing model) of the future German electricity market implemented as a linear optimization problem. Starting from an equilibrium, single input parameters are varied to simulate the arrival of new information. Running the model again with partly fixed capacities then allows us to analyze the adjustment of the power plant portfolio towards the new equilibrium over time. As expected quantity-based instruments are effective in assuring achievement of quantitative goals, notably a certain emission level. Yet risks for investors are rather high in that furthermore that first-best instruments are the most efficient. Risks are lower with price solutions, especially feed-in tariffs or renewable auctions provide the possibility to limit risks extremely by diversification only inside the electricity market.
    Keywords: Information shocks, Electricity system, Investment, Policy instruments
    JEL: Q40 Q48
  47. By: Liu, X-Y.; Liu, L-Q.; Xie, B-C.; Pollitt, M.
    Abstract: China’s electricity industry has experienced a reform whereby the generation sector is being opened up to competition but the transmission and distribution sectors are still regulated. Efficiency and benchmarking analyses are widely used for improving the performance of regulated segments, and the impact on efficiency of observable environmental factors, together with unobservable characteristics, has gained increasing attention in recent years. This study uses alternative stochastic frontier models combined with input distance functions to study the productive efficiency of 29 grid firms of China over the period 1993–2014 and investigates the effect of observed environmental factors and unobserved heterogeneity. The results indicate that efficiency is sensitive to model specification and illustrates the presence of observed and unobserved heterogeneity. The number of customers, power delivered and network length are demonstrated to have positive impacts on the utilities’ efficiency while adverse environmental conditions harm the operation of grid utilities, but policy regulations may offset the negative impact. Finally, we suggest that there is room for efficiency improvement in the distribution grid, which could be encouraged by incentive regulation, even taking due account of environmental heterogeneity.
    Keywords: Grid industry; Efficiency estimation; Stochastic frontier analysis; Environmental heterogeneity; China
    JEL: L94
    Date: 2018–06–25
  48. By: Martínez Salgado, Hilda
    Abstract: En 2016, el sector del transporte originó el 36% de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en América Latina y el Caribe. El transporte por carreteras, a su vez, generó más del 80% de estas emisiones, con una distribución similar entre el transporte de pasajeros y el de carga. Lo anterior representa un gran desafío para la región con relación al cambio climático, ya que para alcanzar la meta de aumento máximo de la temperatura media mundial establecida en el Acuerdo de París es necesario que los países avancen a una economía neutra en carbono hacia fines del siglo. Para lograr dicho objetivo, el sector del transporte tendrá que llevar a cabo una transformación mayor y se deberán implementar políticas que aceleren el cambio de un modelo de movilidad intensivo en carbono a uno bajo en carbono y resiliente. En este documento se analizan varias de las políticas que pueden ser aplicadas en los países de la región para lograr su avance hacia una economía resiliente y de emisiones cero.
    Date: 2018–12–26
  49. By: Amigues, Jean-Pierre; Moreaux, Michel
    Abstract: We study the transition to a carbon-free economy in a model with a polluting non-renewable resource and a clean renewable resource. Transforming primary energy into ready-to-use energy services is costly and more efficient energy transformation rates are more costly to achieve. Renewable energy competes with food production for land and the food productivity of land can be improved at some cost. To avoid catastrophic climate damages, the pollution stock is mandated to stay below a given cap. When the economy is not constrained by the cap, the efficiency of energy transformation increases steadily until the transition toward the ultimate green economy; when renewable energy is exploited, its land use rises at the expense of food production; food productivity increases together with the land rent but food production drops; the food and energy prices increase and renewables substitute for non-renewable energy. During the constrained phase, the economy follows a constant path of prices, quantities, efficiency rates, food productivity and land rent, a phenomenon we call the ’ceiling efficiency paradox'.
    JEL: Q00 Q32 Q43 Q54
    Date: 2018–12

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