nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2019‒01‒07
37 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Who (Else) Benefits from Electricity Deregulation? Coal Prices, Natural Gas and Price Discrimination By Jonathan E. Hughes; Ian A. Lange
  2. The impact of CO2 taxation on Swiss households' heating demand By Laurent Ott; Sylvain Weber
  3. Impacts of consumers' electricity price misperceptions By Baikowski, Martin
  4. Analysing Carbon Pass-Through Rate Mechanism in the Electricity Sector: Evidence from Greece By Dagoumas, Athanasios; Polemis, Michael
  5. Renewable technologies in Karnataka, India: jobs potential and co-benefits By Kattumuri, Ruth; Kruse, Tobias
  6. Using real options to study the impact of capacity additions and investment expenditures in renewable energies in India By DAS GUPTA, SUPRATIM
  7. Without coal in the age of steam and dams in the age of electricity: An explanation for the failure of Portugal to industrialize before the Second World War By Teives Henriques, Sofia; Sharp, Paul
  8. Is the European automotive industry ready for the global electric vehicle revolution? By Gustav Fredriksson; Alexander Roth; Simone Tagliapietra; Reinhilde Veugelers
  9. Cross subsidies across network users: renewable self-consumption By Cédric Clastres; Jacques Percebois; Olivier Rebenaque; Boris Solier
  10. Financial development and industrial pollution By De Haas, Ralph; Popov, Alexander
  11. Regulating Stock Externalities By Reyer Gerlagh; Roweno J.R.K. Heijmans
  12. Carbon tax and sustainable facility location: The role of production technology By Carl Gaigné; Vincent Hovelaque; Youcef Méchouar
  13. How does stock market volatility react to oil shocks? By Andrea Bastianin; Matteo Manera
  14. The price of transition: an analysis of the economic implications of carbon taxing By Gerbert Hebbink; Laurien Berkvens; Maurice Bun; Henk van Kerkhoff; Juho Koistinen; Guido Schotten; Ad Stokman
  15. The Price of Biodiesel RINs and Economic Fundamentals By Scott H. Irwin; Kristen McCormack; James H. Stock
  16. Causes and effects of historical transmission grid collapses and implications for the German power system By Behnert, Marika; Bruckner, Thomas
  17. Adoption and Cooperation Decisions in Sustainable Energy Infrastructure: Evidence from a Sequential Choice Experiment in Germany By Oberst, Christian; Harmsen - van Hout, Marjolein J. W.
  18. Tradable Climate Liabilities: A Thought Experiment By Étienne Billette de Villemeur; Justin Leroux
  19. Restructuring the Chinese Electricity Supply Sector – How industrial electricity prices are determined in a liberalized power market: lessons from Great Britain By Michael Pollitt; Lewis Dale
  20. Input-Output table and Carbon Footprint: Estimation and Structural Decomposition Analysis By Simón Accorsi; Ramón E. López; Gino Sturla
  21. Evaluation of real options portfolio for investment projects By Loukianova, A.; Nurullaev, D.
  22. Marchés internationaux de droits à polluer et taxes locales sur les biens polluants By Julien Daubanes; Pierre Lasserre
  23. Impact of Decentralized Electrification Projects on Sustainable Development: A Meta-Analysis By Jean-Claude Berthelemy; Arnaud Millien
  24. Threshold Regressions for the Resource Curse By Nicolas Clootens; Djamel Kirat
  25. Green, yellow or red lemons? Artefactual field experiment on houses energy labels perception By Edouard Civel; Nathaly Cruz
  26. Competitive Permit Storage and Market Design: An Application to the EU-ETS By Simon Quemin; Raphael Trotignon
  27. Systems Dynamics Economic Modelling of the Fiscal Impacts from the Indonesia’s 1st Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) By Kindy R. Sjahrir
  28. Multi-unit multiple bid auctions in balancing markets: an agent-based Q-learning approach By Viehmann, Johannes; Lorenczik, Stefan; Malischek, Raimund
  29. Empirical investigation of retail gasoline prices By Bergantino, Angela Stefania; Capozza, Claudia; Intini, Mario
  30. De la COP21 à la COP24 : bilan d’étape By Maha Skah
  31. Discounting for Public Cost-Benefit Analysis By Qingran Li; William A. Pizer
  32. Eco-Innovation: Drivers, Barriers and Effects – A European Perspective By Sandra M. Leitner
  33. Centroamérica y República Dominicana: estadísticas de hidrocarburos, 2017 By -
  34. Nigerian economy: business, governance and investment in period of crisis By Ibrahim Abdullahi, Shafiu
  35. Mercado eléctrico en Colombia: Transición hacia una arquitectura descentralizada By Juan Benavides; Ángela Cadena; Javier J. González; Carlos Hidalgo; Alejandro Piñeros
  36. Growth Sustainability and the Quality Dimension of Consumption By Francisco Alcalá Agulló
  37. Mientras llegaba el futuro By Piedrahíta, Esteban; Pérez, Carlos Andrés; Londoño, Harold

  1. By: Jonathan E. Hughes; Ian A. Lange
    Abstract: The movement to deregulate major industries over the past 40 years has produced large efficiency gains. However, distributional effects have been more difficult to assess. In the electricity sector, deregulation has vastly increased information available to market participants through the formation of wholesale markets. We test whether upstream suppliers, specifically railroads that transport coal from mines to power plants, use this information to capture economic rents that would otherwise accrue to electricity generators. Using natural gas prices as a proxy for generators’ surplus, we find railroads charge higher markups when rents are larger. This effect is larger for deregulated plants, high-lighting an important distributional impact of deregulation. This also means policies that change fuel prices can have substantially different effects on downstream consumers in regulated and deregulated markets.
    Keywords: deregulation, price discrimination, electricity markets, procurement contracts
    JEL: L11 L51 Q48
    Date: 2018
  2. By: Laurent Ott; Sylvain Weber
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impacts of the Swiss CO2 levy on households' heating demand. Using a difference-in-differences approach combined with inverse probability of treatment weighting, we test whether the 2016 carbon tax rate increase had a short-term impact on Swiss households' heating consumption and propensity to renovate. Micro-level data from the 2016 and 2017 waves of the Swiss Household Energy Demand Survey (SHEDS) are used to estimate the models. In both cases, no statistically significant effect can be detected across a variety of specifications. Even though further research is needed to investigate possible long-run impacts, our findings question the relevance of this policy instrument under its current form to lower households' greenhouse gas emissions. Additional measures might be implemented to improve its efficiency.
    Keywords: Carbon tax, energy consumption, fossil fuel, policy evaluation, inverse probability of treatment weighting, difference-in-differences
    JEL: C21 C23 H23 Q41 Q58
    Date: 2018–12
  3. By: Baikowski, Martin
    Abstract: Empirical findings indicate that a large share of households misperceives electricity prices and is not able to make deliberate choices in energy service consumption, which leads to biased consumption decisions and thus to inefficient energy use. To investigate the impact of misperceived electricity prices on the derived demand for electricity, the economy and domestic CO2 emissions, we make use of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The model allows us to take the narrow interweaving of production and consumption sectors into account to investigate the repercussions on supply and demand in Germany and Europe. Providing information on electricity prices or the most efficient utilisation can stimulate reductions in electricity consumption if households are aware of possible trade-offs. However, if consumers perceive the electricity price to be much higher than it actually is, providing information on the true electricity price might turn out to be counter-productive in terms of electricity consumption and domestic CO2 emissions.
    Keywords: residential energy consumption,energy efficiency,behavioural inefficiency,electricity price misperception,consumer inattention
    JEL: D58 Q41 Q43
    Date: 2018
  4. By: Dagoumas, Athanasios; Polemis, Michael
    Abstract: In this study, we shed light into the carbon pass-through rate mechanism to wholesale prices in the Greek electric market. For this reason, we utilize a rich micro-level panel, including hourly data for 23 power plants spanning the period January 2014 to December 2017. In order to study the pass-through of emissions costs to wholesale electricity prices, we used an instrumental variable methodology. Our findings survived several robustness checks, accounting for logged linear and non-linear econometric specifications. Moreover, they are in alignment with the relevant recent literature, indicating the existence of an almost complete pass-through rate mechanism. This means that electricity firms almost fully internalize the cost of CO2 permits, incurring important policy implications to policy makers and government officials.
    Keywords: Emissions; CO2 permits; Pass-through; Instrumental variable; Electricity industry
    JEL: L13 L94 Q52
    Date: 2018–12–30
  5. By: Kattumuri, Ruth; Kruse, Tobias
    Abstract: The tangible benefits of renewable energy technologies are a crucial parameter when determining the political feasibility of adopting a low-carbon development path, particularly for emerging economies. We present that these potential benefits consist of ‘green jobs’ and of a wider set of socio-economic and environmental ‘co-benefits’ that are generated simultaneously from renewable technologies in India. Based on case studies from the Indian state of Karnataka, we obtain estimates for jobs and describe co-benefits enabled by wind, off-grid solar and biomass technologies. Furthermore, we use these estimates to project the potential for future benefits that could be generated by further enhancing the use of renewable technologies towards sustainable energy policy and security. We show that enhancing green economy offers benefits that include the creation of jobs, but also delivers a much wider set of socio-economic and environmental welfare gains for emerging economies such as India. Our paper also provides valuable evidence-based analyses for policy-makers when assessing the benefits of low-carbon sustainable development
    Keywords: renewable technologies; green jobs; co-benefits; socio-economic benefits; low-carbon sustainable development
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2017–12–27
    Abstract: We calculate the overall policy value of installed capacity additions and investment expenditures in wind and solar energies in India. Recent increases in capacity additions and investments by both the public and private sectors alongwith government support schemes have made these energies more competitive with traditional fuels like coal in generating electricity. We use a two-factor learning curve to model the decline in prices of wind and solar energies. Employing a real options approach with global coal prices as the stochastic variable we find the overall value of promotion policies in renewables to be sufficiently large. Reducing the share of coal in electricity generation is one of India’s stated goals and a high trigger price of coal suggests continued efforts of capacity additions and investment expenditures in the solar and wind sectors are needed for some time in India.
    Keywords: India Electricity, Wind and Solar, Installed Capacities, Investment Expenditures, Real Options
    JEL: C61 C63 L94 Q42 Q43 Q48
    Date: 2018–12–03
  7. By: Teives Henriques, Sofia (Department of Economic History, Lund University); Sharp, Paul (University of Southern Denmark)
    Abstract: We provide a natural resource explanation for the divergence of the Portuguese economy relative to other European countries before the Second World War, based on a considerable body of contemporary sources. First, we demonstrate that a lack of domestic resources meant that Portugal experienced limited and unbalanced growth during the age of steam. Imports of coal were prohibitively expensive for inland areas, which failed to industrialize. Coastal areas developed through steam, but were constrained by limited demand from the interior. Second, we show that after the First World War, when other coal-poor countries turned to hydro-power, Portugal relied on coal-based thermal-power, creating a vicious circle of high energy prices and labor-intensive industrialization. We argue that this was the result of (i) water resources which were relatively expensive to exploit; and (ii) path-dependency, whereby the failure to develop earlier meant that there was a lack of capital and demand from industry.
    Keywords: Industrial Revolution; natural resources; coal; electrification; energy prices
    JEL: N13 N14 N53 N54 O13 Q43
    Date: 2018–12–21
  8. By: Gustav Fredriksson; Alexander Roth; Simone Tagliapietra; Reinhilde Veugelers
    Abstract: The automotive sector is currently at the centre of a global transformation, driven by four key trends - electrification, autonomous driving, sharing and connected cars. While each of these interconnected trends is already visible in daily life, their full deployment is not yet guaranteed, nor is the speed of take-up. This Policy Contribution investigates the position of the European automotive industry in a scenario in which electrification substantially progresses. The results are encouraging for Europe - EU companies entered the global electric vehicle race late, but on the basis of our analysis it is not yet too late for them to catch up and make the best of this change. European car manufacturers can rely on a large internal market, long experience in automotive manufacturing and a portfolio of research and development projects and patents that is diversified across various power-train technologies. But if Europe wants to succeed in the global electric vehicle race, its automotive industry will have to move into higher gear to meet the global – notably Chinese – competition. Nevertheless, industry needs the proper framework conditions as the basis for more ambitious investments in electrification – as examples such as Norway or China demonstrate. This Policy Contribution formulates a broad policy framework for deployment and production of electric vehicles in Europe, combining demand and supply-side instruments. Europe cannot follow China in the adoption of centrally-planned industrial policy measures. But it certainly can and should do more to stimulate the transformation of its automotive industry through more ambitious policies. On February 12, Bruegel is hosting an event on electric vehicles in European automotive industry, which will feature among others a presentation from the authors of this Policy Contribution. Click here to register.
    Date: 2018–12
  9. By: Cédric Clastres; Jacques Percebois; Olivier Rebenaque; Boris Solier
    Abstract: The deployment of renewable energies relies upon incentive policies to make their use profitable for owner. However, their development needs adjustments of network to manage intermittency and additional energy fed into the grid. Moreover, the Public Service Obligation Tariffs (PSOT) are increasing to fund policies that support renewable energy deployment. Therefore, some decisions are taken to promote self-consumption by owners of renewable energy power plants, as photovoltaic prosumers. This behavior is encouraged by payment exemptions of PSOT, special tariffs dedicated to remunerate each self-consumed energy unit or savings on the variable part of the network tariff. Thus, some cross-subsidies appear between self-consumers and other users of the network to compensate all these previous self-consumers’ gains. We show that these cross-subsidies occur but they strongly rely on self-consumption rate and on renewable energy share in the total produced or consumed energy. So, currently, the levels of cross-subsidies are not significant for consumers. We also show that regulator could fund these cross-subsidies increasing the fixed part of the network tariff for prosumers.
    Keywords: Self-consumption, Cross-subsidies, Network tariff, Policy instrument
    JEL: L94 Q42 L51
    Date: 2018
  10. By: De Haas, Ralph; Popov, Alexander
    Abstract: We study the impact of financial market development on industrial pollution in a large panel of countries and industries over the period 1974-2013. We find a strong positive impact of credit markets, but a strong negative impact of stock markets, on aggregate CO2 emissions per capita. Industry-level analysis shows that stock market development (but not credit market development) is associated with cleaner production processes in technologically "dirty" industries. These industries also produce more green patents as stock markets develop. Moreover, our results suggest that stock markets (credit markets) reallocate investment towards more (less) carbon-efficient sectors. Together, these findings indicate that the evolution of a country's financial structure helps explain the non-linear relationship between economic development and environmental quality documented in the literature.
    Keywords: financial development; industrial pollution; innovation; reallocation
    JEL: G10 O4 Q5
    Date: 2018–08–04
  11. By: Reyer Gerlagh; Roweno J.R.K. Heijmans
    Abstract: We develop a dynamic regulation game for a stock externality under asymmetric information and future market uncertainty. Within this framework, regulation is characterized as the implementation of a welfare-maximization program conditional on informational constraints. We identify the most general executable programs and find these yield simple and intuitive time-consistent policy rules that implement the stochastic first best as long as a future market exists. We apply our theory to carbon dioxide emissions trading schemes and find substantial welfare gains are possible, compared to current practices.
    Keywords: asymmetric information, regulatory instruments, policy updating, emission trading, pollution, climate change
    JEL: H23 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2018
  12. By: Carl Gaigné (UMR-1302, SMART-LERECO INRA, AGROCAMPUS OUEST, F-35000 Rennes, France); Vincent Hovelaque (Univ Rennes, CNRS, CREM UMR 6211, F-35000 Rennes, France); Youcef Méchouar (Univ Rennes, CNRS, CREM UMR 6211, F-35000 Rennes, France)
    Abstract: Recent studies on facility location under the carbon pricing scheme highlight that increas-ing the carbon price can ensure meaningful reductions in transport-related greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). Indeed, when we assume the bill of materials (BOM) as a production technology (i.e. complementary of inputs), a higher carbon price does not change the supply planning because the input proportions are fixed, but it does increase the total transport cost, which pushes the firm to make its location choice more sustainable (lower level of emissions). However, when we account for possible substitution between input quantities, this may cease to hold. In this paper, we propose to revisit the Production-Location Problem (PLP) considering transport-related carbon emission mitigation due to carbon taxation and production technologies that allow complementarity or substitution among input quantities. We first show that cost-minimizing location may differ from carbon emission minimizing location, regardless of the production technology type. We also find that an increased car-bon tax may increase carbon emissions when we enable substitution across input quantities. Gradual changes in carbon tax affect the relative delivered prices of inputs (the per-unit procurement and transportation costs of an input compared to the costs of another) such that the firm has an incentive to relocate its facility and substitute among input quantities, leading to new shipping patterns that can generate a higher level of pollution under certain parameters.
    Keywords: Location, transport-related carbon emissions, carbon tax, production technology, sustainability
    Date: 2018–12
  13. By: Andrea Bastianin; Matteo Manera
    Abstract: We study the impact of oil price shocks on the U.S. stock market volatility. We jointly analyze three different structural oil market shocks (i.e., aggregate demand, oil supply, and oil-specific demand shocks) and stock market volatility using a structural vector autoregressive model. Identification is achieved by assuming that the price of crude oil reacts to stock market volatility only with delay. This implies that innovations to the price of crude oil are not strictly exogenous, but predetermined with respect to the stock market. We show that volatility responds significantly to oil price shocks caused by unexpected changes in aggregate and oil-specific demand, whereas the impact of supply-side shocks is negligible.
    Date: 2018–11
  14. By: Gerbert Hebbink; Laurien Berkvens; Maurice Bun; Henk van Kerkhoff; Juho Koistinen; Guido Schotten; Ad Stokman
    Abstract: In the summer of 2018, the House of Representatives of the Netherlands supported the legislative proposal for a Climate Act. The Climate Act stipulates that in 2050, greenhouse gas emissions must have been reduced by 95% relative to their 1990 level. To achieve this objective, the government is aiming to reduce emissions by 49% in 2030. This requires ambitious climate policies, which also include the option of introducing a direct tax on carbon emissions. An efficient way of reducing harmful emissions is to assign a price to the external effects of emissions. Data evidences that compared with other countries, Dutch enterprises emit large quantities of greenhouse gases and are paying relatively little for these emissions. The most straightforward approach would be to introduce a European carbon tax, after the example of the European Emissions Trading System (ETS). The option of introducing a national policy, with the Netherlands leading the field in terms of imposing a direct carbon tax on corporations, requires more insight into its impact on production costs, international price competitiveness and sales. This study addresses this, distinguishing between the various industry sectors within the Dutch economy.
    Date: 2018–12
  15. By: Scott H. Irwin; Kristen McCormack; James H. Stock
    Abstract: The D4 RIN is the tradable compliance certificate for the biomass-based diesel mandate in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Understanding the price dynamics of the D4 RIN is important for understanding the RFS because its price sets a ceiling on the ethanol RIN (D6) and because some observers have suggested that RIN price fluctuations are too large to be explained by economic theory. We use option pricing theory to develop a model of the D4 RIN in terms of its economic fundamentals: the spread between the prices of biodiesel and petroleum diesel and the status of the biodiesel blenders’ tax credit. The resulting D4 fundamental price closely tracks actual D4 prices. We conclude that RIN price volatility arises because of the design of the RFS and intrinsic features of the US fuel supply system.
    JEL: C32 Q11 Q42
    Date: 2018–12
  16. By: Behnert, Marika; Bruckner, Thomas
    Abstract: Against the background of the energy transition accompanied by a rising penetration of renewable energy (REN) sources and a stepwise phase out of conventional power plants in order to fulfill climate protection targets, the requirements for a reliable transmission grid infrastructure increased in the last years. High coordination and communication efforts among market and system operators as well as weather extremes that occur more frequently enhance the probability of critical network states. In this paper, causes and impacts of 250 prominent transmission grid collapses in the period from 1965 to 2012 were analyzed. Based on historical events, blackout data sets were clustered inter alia by their date, affected continent as well as the duration of interrupted supply, respectively. We find an ascending number of outages along with a longer averaged duration over time. It is studied how different categories of causes evoking large-scale power blackouts are distributed regionally and temporally. Furthermore, challenges to prevent grid malfunctions, both from a technical and societal perspective, are elaborated focusing on the German power system.
    Keywords: transmission grid stability,power network blackouts,cascading outages,critical infrastructures
    Date: 2018
  17. By: Oberst, Christian (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Harmsen - van Hout, Marjolein J. W. (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))
    Abstract: In this paper, we propose and apply the design of a sequential discrete choice experiment to examine homeowner preferences regarding the adoption of micro-generation systems and willingness to cooperate in sustainable energy infrastructure. Adoption and cooperation decisions of private households in the energy sector are complex, interlinked, and assumably sequential. A common design with single choice tasks reflecting both adoption and cooperation decisions is assumed as cognitively too burdensome for survey respondents. The objective of the proposed sequential choice task design is twofold. Firstly, reducing complexity for respondents. Secondly, reflecting a step-wise decision process as is appropriate for the studied decisions. Our application from the energy sector is motivated by the need for innovative business models for non-industrial prosumers providing flexibility services in (local) distribution grids, due to an increasing amount of volatile and decentrally generated electricity. Results indicate that respondents reveal more pronounced preferences when dealing with their decision in sequential steps and that the task design has a lasting effect on respondents’ choices. By estimating latent class logit models, five consumer classes are identified and labeled by their distinguished motivational foci: costs (1), climate protection (2), self-supply (3), local reference (4), and other (5).
    Keywords: Choice Experiment; Micro-generation; Renewable Energy; Community Energy; Energy Transition
    JEL: C25 D12 Q42
    Date: 2017–10
  18. By: Étienne Billette de Villemeur; Justin Leroux
    Abstract: We envision the creation of a climate liability market to address climate change. Each period, countries are issued liability commensurate to their emissions of the period. Liability bearers are required to pay over time, as climate harm materializes. Revenues are used to compensate participating countries in proportion of climate harm. Because liabilities are traded like financial debt among participants, the mechanism achieves a unique carbon price through decentralization of the choice of a discount rate as well as beliefs about the severity of the climate problem. We discuss properties of such a mechanism along the dimensions of efficiency, fairness, exposure to risk, commitment, participation, as well as implementation challenges.
    Keywords: Climate Liability,Market Instruments,Pigovian Tax,Risk Sharing,
    JEL: Q54 H23
    Date: 2018–12–26
  19. By: Michael Pollitt (University of Cambridge); Lewis Dale (National Grid)
    Date: 2018–11
  20. By: Simón Accorsi; Ramón E. López; Gino Sturla
    Abstract: En este artículo comparamos dos metodologías para medir y asignar entre sectores productivos la huella de carbono para el caso chileno (2008-2013): la metodología de Balance Energético (BE), tradicionalmente utilizada por los policy makers, y una metodología que utiliza la información disponible en la Matriz Insumo-Producto (MIP). La metodología MIP, a diferencia de la BNE, considera las interacciones intra e inter-sectoriales a través de los flujos de inputs/outputs, obteniendo un indicador que mide de manera más precisa la huella de carbono atribuible a cada sector. En este sentido, la metodología BE subestima la huella atribuible al sector Minero y sobrestima las emisiones atribuibles a los sectores Transporte y Electricidad y Gas, lo cual tiene implicancias en los diseños de políticas de mitigación en general y en los efectos de esquemas de impuestos a las emisiones. En definitiva, el enfoque o metodología que se escoja para medir o cuantificar la huella de carbono no es inocuo, al menos a nivel sectorial. Esto es, diferentes metodologías reportan diferentes niveles de emisión sectoriales, aunque coinciden en el agregado. Un segundo objetivo de este trabajo consiste en explotar la información utilizada en la metodología MIP para lograr una mejor comprensión de la dinámica que vincula el nivel de emisiones con las estructuras productivo/tecnológicas subyacentes. Para ello se realiza un Análisis de Descomposición Estructural (ADE) que permite desagregar los cambios en las emisiones en (i) efecto escala, (ii) efecto composición y (iii) efecto ingreso. Los resultados muestran que el efecto que en mayor medida determina el aumento de emisiones para el caso chileno es el efecto escala, seguido del efecto técnico. El efecto composición en tanto, se asocia con una reducción de las emisiones lo cual refleja el tránsito hacia una economía basada en mayor medida en servicios.
    Date: 2018–12
  21. By: Loukianova, A.; Nurullaev, D.
    Abstract: The goal of this paper is to offer recommendations for evaluating the portfolio of real options in investment projects. The study reviews the real options methodology, analyses real options valuation models, and formulates methodology for valuing real options portfolio. The proposed approach was tested using the example of a company that produces shale oil. As a result, the mechanism for assessing the portfolio of real options and their application was offered to managers who are engaged in the evaluation of investment projects.
    Keywords: real options, valuation, risk-management, investments, real options portfolio, shale oil production,
    Date: 2018
  22. By: Julien Daubanes (University of Geneva); Pierre Lasserre (Université de Québec à Montréal)
    Abstract: The interest of international markets for pollution rights lies in their potential to achieve a pollution reduction objective in an efficient manner. Unfortunately, the tendency of participating countries to tax polluting goods locally undermines this potential. We propose a model to examine the interest of countries participating in a market for rights to pollute in taxing the good that generates pollution. In particular, this interest depends on the initial distribution of rights among participating countries. We show how rights should be allocated to the different participating countries in order to ensure market efficiency. These optimal allocations require that a sufficiently large fraction of rights be distributed free of charge rather than auctioned.
    Keywords: International cap and trade, local taxes, optimum tariff, optimal allocation of pollution rights
    JEL: Q48 H21
    Date: 2018–12
  23. By: Jean-Claude Berthelemy (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne & FERDI); Arnaud Millien (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne & FERDI)
    Abstract: This paper is the first product of a project which aims to build a Collaborative Smart Mapping of Mini-grid Action (CoSMMA), whose principal objective is to identify best practice in decentralized electrification projects. Using evaluations of 421 projects, from published research papers, we built a pilot CoSMMA which proves its feasibility. Its relevance is demonstrated by a meta-analysis, which reveals the principal characteristics of decentralized electrification projects which have positive impacts on sustainable development. Four main characteristics were considered: technology (source or energy), system size (power), decision level (from local to country level) geographic location. When searching for best practices, technology and system size must be considered together, because the chosen technology may constrain the power, which is provided by the system. We find that the most popular projects, which are based on Solar Home Systems (SHS) are not the most effective. The problem with SHS is not the use of solar energy, but the small system size often chosen for SHS. Mini-grids, of larger size, especially those which use hybrid renewable sources of energy, have more positive impacts, because these systems combine the benefits of sustainability and flexibility. In terms of decision level, we find that both top-down and bottom-up approaches have advantages, with the observation of a U-shaped curve for the influence of the decision level on the probability of obtaining positive impacts. Geographical location matters, as it is very often the key to system feasibility. We find that DEPs are more effective in Latin America than in Asia, and more effective in Asia than in Africa. We also attempted to study the type of effects resulting from DEPs. Descriptive data suggest that for some types of effects, positive impacts are more likely than for others. Decentralized electrification projects have a more positive impact on Lifestyle & NICT or Household agenda than on Economic transformation or Community life. However, this pilot CoSMMA does not contain enough information to study precisely the types of effects, because some types of effects have not been studied frequently in the existing literature. This is the case, for instance, for environmental effects, which have been rarely measured scientifically. Finally, we attempted to broaden our information set by including expert data, which was entered into the CoSMMA meta-analysis. We define expert data as data that are not supported by statistical tests with measures of significance, whereas the evaluations based on scientific data were supported by statistical tests of significance. The expert data may be valid, but our attempt to include it in the analysis failed at this stage. The determinants of unproven effects appear to be quite different from the determinants of proven effects in our meta-analysis, and using expert data would imply merging proven and unproven effects, which would totally blur the conclusions
    Keywords: Decentralized electrification; sustainable development; impact assessment; meta-analysis
    JEL: L93 O13 O18 O22
    Date: 2018–12
  24. By: Nicolas Clootens (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, EHESS, Centrale Marseille, AMSE & Univ. Orléans, CNRS, LEO); Djamel Kirat (Univ. Orléans, CNRS, LEO)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the behavior of cross-country growth rates with respect to resource abundance and dependence. We reject the linear model that is commonly-used in growth regressions in favor of a multiple-regime alternative. Using a formal sample-splitting method, we find that countries exhibit different behaviors with respect to natural resources depending on their initial level of development. In high-income countries, natural resources play only a minor role in explaining the differences in national growth rates. On the contrary, in low-income countries abundance seems to be a blessing but dependence restricts growth.
    Keywords: non-renewable resources, growth, resource curse, threshold regressions
    JEL: O11 O13 Q33
    Date: 2018–11
  25. By: Edouard Civel; Nathaly Cruz
    Abstract: Labels are increasingly popular among policy-makers, companies and NGOs to improve consumers’ awareness, especially about environmental footprints. Yet, the efficiency of these informational tools is mostly looked as their ability to shift behaviors, whereas their first goal is to enable people to discriminate labelled goods. This paper studies how the complex information displayed by houses’ Energy Performance Certificates is processed by real economic agents. Through a randomized artefactual field experiment on 3,000 French subjects, we test the impact of these labels on people’s perception of a home energy performance. Results evidence that 24% of subjects did not pay attention to the energy label. Unexpectedly, we find out that gender is the most critical socio-demographic characteristic in this changing attention. We interpret this effect by the Selectivity Hypothesis: energy labels design engages more male subjects. Among attentive subjects, energy labels’ efficiency to transmit information is mixed. Subjects do identify separately each label’s grade, but their judgment is biased by prior beliefs and blurred by idiosyncratic features. Aggregated reading is Bayesian: subjects infer the label information to revise their belief on energy quality. Moreover, our results shed light on strong asymmetries. While worsening grades induce decreasing judgments on energy quality, top level quality label seems to undergo skepticism, intensifying idiosyncratic noise.
    Keywords: Information treatment, Experimental economics, Cognitive psychology, Green Value, Energy efficiency
    JEL: D03 D12 D83 L15
    Date: 2018
  26. By: Simon Quemin (Paris-Dauphine University & Climate Economics Chair); Raphael Trotignon (Climate Economics Chair)
    Abstract: We develop a model of competitive inter-temporal emissions trading under uncertainty that features the core design elements of the EU-ETS to assess the recent market reform, essentially the market stability reserve. Modeling novelties include the introduction of myopia on the part of covered firms, of their ability to understand the interaction between their decisions and the MSR actions over time, as well as the implementation of a recursive procedure to solve for the certainty-equivalent market equilibrium solution. We calibrate the model on 2008-2017 market data to match observed price and banking paths. We find that the MSR always raises the permit price and never preserves the overall cap integrity, irrespective of the permit cancellation provision. Our results also suggest that the purported MSR responsiveness to demand shocks (e.g. recession, renewable deployment) would be limited, especially when firms are unable to anticipate future MSR-driven supply changes.
    Keywords: Inter-temporal emissions trading, EU-ETS reform, Supply responsiveness design, Rational expectations equilibrium, Heuristic
    JEL: Q58 Q54 H23 E63
    Date: 2018–12
  27. By: Kindy R. Sjahrir (Fiscal Policy Office, Ministry of Finance. Republic of Indonesia)
    Abstract: The Indonesian commitment has been declared in negotiations in the Conference on climate change (COP24) in Katowice, Poland, December 2-14, 2018. It is estimated that around 45,000 delegates from 197 countries attended the United Nations Session discussing status and efforts to control the impact of climate change in the world. The Indonesian delegation is ready not only for negotiation but also for "soft diplomacy" that Indonesia has made much progress in the implementation of the Paris Agreement on climate change. The Paris Agreement is implemented in Indonesia through cooperation of all concerned. The Indonesian Government is consistent with its commitment to bring down the greenhouse gas emission and the program of adaptation to climate change as mentioned in the document of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) as a product of the Paris Agreement. Indonesia also has ratified the Paris Agreement. Through NDC, Indonesia is committed by itself to reducing Green House gas emission by 29 percent in 2030 and with international cooperation by 41 percent. Data in 2016, Indonesia succeeded in reducing gas emission by 8.7 percent through various sectors. In 2017, the reduction already reached 16 percent – according Ministry of Forestry and Environment. In reaching the 29 percent target Indonesia has good modality in fulfilling NDC commitment, this paper reports the fiscal capacity in achieving Indonesia’s NDC. The important role of budgetary finance in providing funding according scenarios related to climate change and the development of a green economy is nonetheless crucial to consider the stability of the state's financial condition in order to remain in a prudent condition sustaining drive for other sectors of economic growth and equity. This study developed a system dynamics economic model to explore impacts of implementing National Determined Contribution (NDC) to fiscal space using Indonesian data. The exploration includes (1) finding the financial capacity of the country at the baseline; (2) finding the state of the fiscal balance in applying funding policies for climate change-based activities; (3) finding the most effective climate change scenarios to be financed by the state. Simulation results show that climate change financing does not significantly impact state finance. Indonesia's revenue growth can still overcome the influx of financing needs for climate change. Thus, through this model, it can be concluded that the national budget is still in capacity to finance the needs for climate change’s 1st NDC.
    Keywords: Fiscal Policy, Systems Dynamic, Indonesian Data
    JEL: G28
    Date: 2018–12
  28. By: Viehmann, Johannes (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)); Lorenczik, Stefan (IEA); Malischek, Raimund (IEA)
    Abstract: There is an ongoing debate on the appropriate auction design for competitive electricity balancing markets. Uniform (UPA)and discriminatory price auctions (DPA), the prevalent designs in use today, are assumed to have different properties with regard to prices and effciencies. These properties cannot be thoroughly described using analytical methods due to the complex strategy space in repeated multi-unit multiple bid auctions. Therefore, using an agent-based Q-learning model, we simulate the strategic bidding behaviour in these auctions under a variety of market conditions. We find that UPAs lead to higher prices in all analysed market settings. This is mainly due to the fact that players engage in bid shading more aggressively. Moreover, small players in UPAs learn to free ride on the price setting of large players and learn higher profits per unit of capacity owned, while they are disadvantaged in DPAs. UPAs also generally feature higher effciencies, but there are exceptions to this observation. If demand is varying and players are provided with additional information about scarcity in the market, market prices increase only in case asymmetric players are present.
    Keywords: Agent-based computational economics; Auction design; Electricity markets
    JEL: C63 D43 D44 L94
    Date: 2018–12–18
  29. By: Bergantino, Angela Stefania; Capozza, Claudia; Intini, Mario
    Abstract: This paper explores the nature of price variation in the retail gasoline sector with a novel approach. An empirical model is proposed that jointly analyses: i) the spatial interaction between stations in price setting; ii) the direct and the indirect effect of local competition on prices; iii) the role of territorial factors, generally neglected in the studies on gasoline prices. For all these purposes, variables at sub-municipal level are constructed. The results of the empirical model, tested on the city of Rome, confirm the spatial price interaction across stations. Moreover, evidence of direct and indirect effects of local competition on prices is found: the competitive forces acting in the gasoline sector are not bounded within a local market but they spill over across local markets. Micro-territorial variables turn out to have a sizeable influence on prices, particularly the real estate value. When these variables are added to the model, the strength of spatial interaction weakens. This suggests that including micro-territorial variables in the empirical specification strongly contributes to explain the variation of gasoline prices and to accurately detect the spatial dependence.
    Date: 2018
  30. By: Maha Skah
    Abstract: L’action collective de lutte contre le changement climatique a longtemps été freinée par de puissants clivages, à la fois géopolitiques et économiques ; Nord/Sud, pays industrialisés/pays en voie de développement, énergies fossiles/renouvelables, multilatéralisme solidaire/souveraineté nationale. Les négociations internationales sur le changement climatique sont également confrontées à la difficulté de réguler ce bien public mondial qu’est l’environnement. Après trois années de stagnation, les émissions mondiales de gaz à effet de serre (GES) sont reparties à la hausse, alors que le dernier rapport du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC) prédit une hausse des températures atteignant déjà 1,5°C entre 2030 et 2052 si nous continuons à émettre au rythme actuel. A l’heure du premier grand rendez-vous climatique depuis l’adoption de l’Accord de Paris sur le climat, ce papier tente de mieux saisir la portée des dernières évolutions intervenues dans la lutte contre le changement climatique. Il revient sur l’apport scientifique de ces dernières années et offre une piste d’analyse pour mieux appréhender les avancées réalisées depuis la COP21, ainsi que les défis restant à surmonter lors de la COP24 afin de combler l’écart entre le niveau d’ambition affiché dans les Contributions Déterminées au niveau Nationales (CDN), les objectifs nationaux, et les transformations requises pour répondre à l’urgence climatique.
    Date: 2018–12
  31. By: Qingran Li; William A. Pizer
    Abstract: Standard U.S. practice for public cost-benefit analysis is to bound the discount rate with the interest rate paid by capital investment and rate received by consumers. These bounding cases arise when future benefits accrue to consumers in either a two-period model or as a perpetuity. We generalize to consider benefits paid in any future period. We find that the appropriate discount rate converges to the consumption rate for benefits in the distant future. More generally, the range of rates depends on the temporal pattern. Applied to CO2 damages, we estimate the appropriate discount rates of between 2.6 and 3.4 percent.
    JEL: D61 H43 Q54
    Date: 2018–12
  32. By: Sandra M. Leitner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: This paper determines the key drivers, barriers and effects of eco-innovation, in comparison to innovation in general. It further distinguishes between different types of eco-innovations to better capture their heterogeneous nature. It uses two different data sets (1) the Community Innovation Survey 2014 (CIS-2014) for a large sample of EU Member States, further split up into three groups in accordance with their eco-innovation performance; (2) the German Mannheim Innovation Panel to address additional drivers the CIS-2014 is unable to capture. Results show that both R&D investments and complementary fixed capital investments are key drivers of eco-innovation, with differences across country groups. Results from the German sample further emphasise that expected future demand, rising costs for energy and other resources and the wish to improve one’s reputation and the need to meet industry standards help spur eco-innovation, while public policy is only of limited importance. In contrast, international market orientation turns out to be a barrier for eco-innovation. By and large, eco‑innovations also have a productivity-enhancing effect which is however lower as compared to innovations in general.
    Keywords: eco-innovation, demand pull, technology push, public policy, Europe
    JEL: Q55 O33 O38
    Date: 2018–12
  33. By: -
    Abstract: En este documento se presentan cuadros regionales y nacionales con datos estadísticos del subsector hidrocarburos de los ocho países que conforman el Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA): Belice, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panamá y la República Dominicana.
    Date: 2018–12–17
  34. By: Ibrahim Abdullahi, Shafiu
    Abstract: Nigerian economy is very sensitive to happenings in the global crude oil market due to Nigeria dependence on the black gold. The recession Nigeria found herself in 2016 was mainly caused by the fall in the international price of crude oil. It is the same factor that also help to explain Buhari government massive borrowings to help close the gap in government budget since coming to power in 2015. In the years since independence, Nigerian economy has changed from its largely agrarian state of 1960s to an import depended mono-economy. Nigeria single most important export for more than forty years has remain crude oil. But, in the period since independence various economic models have been tested, as many as there were changes in governments. While the adaptation of some of these economic programs were domestically inspired, others were forced on Nigeria from the outside. The book provides a comprehensive account of Nigerian economy, taking into consideration the changes that have taken place in the last one decade.
    Keywords: Nigeria, Economy, Business, Investment, Politics, regional security, Boko Haram, Media, Gender, Islamic finance, Global trade
    JEL: A1 A2 F1 G0 H5 M2 M3 O1 O3 Q5
    Date: 2018–10–23
  35. By: Juan Benavides; Ángela Cadena; Javier J. González; Carlos Hidalgo; Alejandro Piñeros
    Abstract: El sector eléctrico de Colombia avanzó notablemente con la reforma de las Leyes 142 y 143 de 1994. Se introdujeron mecanismos de mercado en generación, se regularon las actividades de transmisión y distribución, y se llegó a la solvencia económica de las empresas sectoriales. Por lo menos durante cinco años, el mercado eléctrico sirvió de modelo para reformas internacionales. Con el paso del tiempo, los mercados y la regulación eléctrica han avanzado en Colombia con menos velocidad que en muchos otros países y se han acumulado problemas. Se debe aumentar la competencia en generación, se debe promover la configuración de un portafolio de generación más diversificado, se deben promover con mayor vigor las energías renovables no convencionales y preparar el camino para una arquitectura de mercado en que convivan el sistema de potencia centralizado y descentralizados, sin restricciones a la comercialización de excedentes de recursos distribuidos. El trabajo consta de cinco capítulos, además de este resumen. El capítulo 1 presenta las características de la electricidad como bien económico y compara la evolución del mercado eléctrico del Reino Unido (la experiencia original) con el de Colombia. El capítulo 2 discute los problemas centrales del modelo colombiano. El capítulo 3 identifica oportunidades. El capítulo 4 compila las propuestas. El capítulo 5 concluye. Las medidas específicas más importantes que surgen del presente trabajo son: (i) la introducción de un mercado de contratos estandarizados y anónimos, (ii) la introducción de planificación integrada de recur-sos, con un enfoque de portafolio, (iii) la construcción de una planta regasificadora en la Costa Pacífica, (iv) introducción de medidas habilitantes para la adopción de recursos energéticos descentralizados, que incluye la introducción de medidores inteligentes, precios nodales, entre otras; y (v) realización de pilotos con operadores de distribución y con agregadores de recursos descentralizados.
    Keywords: Mercado Eléctrico, Sector Eléctrico, Electricidad, Crecimiento Económico, Energía Eléctrica, Política Pública, Colombia
    JEL: L94 Q43 F43 O47 O13 L38
    Date: 2018–11–30
  36. By: Francisco Alcalá Agulló (Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas - Ivie)
    Abstract: What factors shape the environmental sustainability of economic growth? This paper shows that the shift in advanced economies from quantity to quality growth (i.e., from producing more units of identical goods to producing more valuable varieties) is a potentially important mechanism favoring the decoupling of economic growth from resource use and environmental impacts. First, the paper introduces a parsimonious and tractable model that distinguishes the environmental impacts of quantity and quality growth and identifies the key parameter to be estimated empirically. Second, to estimate the quality elasticity of the environmental impacts, the paper uses the US automobile industry as an important and illustrative case. The environmental impact of quality growth is found to be significantly smaller than the impact of quantity growth. Accounting for the distinct impacts of quantity and quality growth would help improve sustainability projections and policies.
    Keywords: sustainable development; decoupling; quality growth; environmental Kuznets curve
    JEL: O44 Q56
    Date: 2018–12
  37. By: Piedrahíta, Esteban; Pérez, Carlos Andrés; Londoño, Harold
    Abstract: This book focuses on the historical analysis of the main economic and social transformations of Valle del Cauca in the last 25 years. With a wide and diverse statistical information, the results of the Valley are evaluated against those registered by the main departments of the country. An account of the productive and social performance originated by the accelerated economic growth of the first half of the nineties, the crisis of the late twentieth century, the mining-energy boom experienced by the country between 2003 and 2013 and the recent adjustment of the economy. The new productive bets are also presented and teachings and lights are thrown for the economic future of the department
    Keywords: Transformaciones económicas, Desempeño productivo y social, apuestas productivas.
    JEL: A1 D5 D51 E23 E24 E3 E32 F1 F2 F21 F23
    Date: 2017–09

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