nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2018‒11‒12
37 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. And then he wasn't a she : Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model By Francesco Lamperti; Giovanni Dosi; Mauro Napoletano; Andrea Roventini; Sandro Sapio
  2. Evaluating the implicit cost of CO2 abatement with renewable energy incentives in Pakistan By Hanan Ishaque
  3. The Effects of Energy Price Changes: Heterogeneous Welfare Impacts, Energy Poverty, and CO2 Emissions in Indonesia By Renner, Sebastian; Lay, Jann; Schleicher, Michael
  4. Economic Impact of Wind Generation Penetration in the Colombian Electricity Market By Alvaro Gonzalez-Castellanos; David Pozo; Sergio Martinez; Luis Lopez; Ingrid Oliveros
  5. Household Welfare and CO2 Emission Impacts of Energy and Carbon Taxes in Mexico By Renner, Sebastian; Lay, Jann; Greve, Hannes
  6. Conventional Power Plants in Liberalized Electricity Markets with Renewable Entry By Gerard Llobet; Jorge Padilla
  7. Costo de generación eléctrica incorporando externalidades ambientales: Mezcla óptima de tecnologías de carga base By Gómez-Ríos, María del Carmen; Juárez-Luna, David
  8. Residual Shape Risk on Czech Natural Gas Market By Karel Janda; Jakub Kourilek
  9. Asymmetric Cointegration and Causality between Natural Gas Consumption and Economic Growth in Nigeria By Danladi Galadima, Mukhtar; Wambai Aminu, Abubakar
  10. Structures tarifaires et spirale de la mort : État des lieux des pratiques de tarification dans la distribution d’électricité résidentielle By Timothé Beaufils; Pierre-Olivier Pineau
  11. Rebounds Are Structural Effects of Infrastructures and Markets By Grégoire Wallenborn
  12. An energy transition risk stress test for the financial system of the Netherlands By Robert Vermeulen; Edo Schets; Melanie Lohuis; Barbara Kolbl; David-Jan Jansen; Willem Heeringa
  13. The Response of Consumption to Fuel Switching : Panel Data Estimates By Imelda, Imelda
  14. Renewable energy-economic growth nexus in South Africa: Linear, nonlinear or non-existent? By Nyoni, Bothwell; Phiri, Andrew
  15. The Relationship Between Fuel, Biofuel and Food Prices: Methods and Outcomes By Karel Janda; Ladislav Kristoufek
  16. General Equilibrium Rebound from Energy Efficiency Innovation By Derek Lemoine
  17. Leading the Unwilling: Unilateral Strategies to Prevent Arctic Oil Exploration By Justin Leroux; Daniel Spiro
  18. Econometric modelling of the link between investment and electricity consumption in Ghana By Asuamah Yeboah, Samuel
  19. The characteristics of energy employment in a system-wide context By Grant Allan; Andrew G Ross
  20. In the shadow of coal: How large-scale industries contributed to present-day regional differences in personality and well-being By Obschonka, Martin; Stuetzer, Michael; Rentfrow, Peter J.; Shaw-Taylor, Leigh; Satchell, Max; Silbereisen, Rainer K.; Potter, Jeff; Gosling, Samuel D.
  21. Economics and Social Costs of Hydroelectric Power By Johansson, Per-Olov; Kriström, Bengt
  22. Assessing the potential contribution of excess heat from biogas plants towards decarbonising German residential heating By Weinand, Jann; McKenna, Russell; Karner, Katharina; Braun, Lorenz; Herbes, Carsten
  23. Financing the Response to Climate Change: The Pricing and Ownership of U.S. Green Bonds By Malcolm Baker; Daniel Bergstresser; George Serafeim; Jeffrey Wurgler
  24. The economic impacts of UK trade-enhancing industrial policies and their spillover effects on the energy system By Andre G Ross; Grant Allan; Gioele Figus; Peter McGregor; J Kim Swales; Karen Turner
  25. Mercado eléctrico en Colombia: transición hacia una arquitectura descentralizada By Juan Benavides; Ángela Cadena
  26. Constructing energy accounts for WIOD 2016 release By Viktoras Kulionis
  27. Instruments juridiques et économiques de régulation de la pollution de l’air et de l’atmosphère By Marion Bary; Marie-Hélène Hubert
  28. Modelling Energy Consumption: Using and Abusing Regression Diagnostics By David A. Belsley; Roy E. Welsch
  29. An econometric evaluation of daylight saving time in Mexico By Flores, Daniel; Luna, Edgar
  30. SinoTERM365, Bottom-up Representation of China at the Prefectural Level By Glyn Wittwer; Mark Horridge
  31. Attitudes Toward Climate Policies in a Macrodynamic Model of the Economy By Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández; Serena Sordi
  32. Business Cycle with Bank Intermediation in Oil Economies By Hamid R Tabarraei; Hamed Ghiaie; Asghar Shahmoradi
  33. Re-examining the Asymmetric Gasoline Pricing Mechanism in EU: A Panel Threshold Analysis By Chen, Chaoyi; Polemis, Michael; Stengos, Thanasis
  34. Introducing first and second generation biofuels into GTAP data base version 9 By Taheripour, Farzad; Luis Moises Pena Levano; Wally Tyner
  35. The Private and Social Incentive to Explore for Stocks of an Exhaustible Natural Resource By Stephen Polasky
  36. A Perspective on Oil By Kaplan, Robert S.
  37. Oligopoly and Exploration Incentives for Exhaustible Natural Resources By Stephen Polasky

  1. By: Francesco Lamperti (Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris 1 (UP1)); Giovanni Dosi (Laboratory of Economics and Management); Mauro Napoletano (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques); Andrea Roventini (Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM)); Sandro Sapio (Universita degli studi di Napoli "Parthenope" [Napoli])
    Abstract: In this work, we employ an agent-based integrated assessment model to study the likelihood of transition to green, sustainable growth in presence of climate damages. The model comprises heterogeneous fossil-fuel and renewable plants, capital- and consumption-good firms and a climate box linking greenhouse gasses emission to temperature dynamics and microeconomic climate shocks affecting labour productivity and energy demand of firms. Simulation results show that the economy possesses two statistical equilibria: a carbon-intensive lock-in and a sustainable growth path characterized by better macroeconomic performances. Once climate damages are accounted for, the likelihood of a green transition depends on the damage function employed. In particular, aggregate and quadratic damage functions overlook the impact of climate change on the transition to sustainability; to the contrary, more realistic micro-level damages are found to deeply influence the chances of a transition. Finally, we run a series of policy experiments on carbon (fossil fuel) taxes and green subsidies. We find that the effectiveness of such marketbased instruments depends on the different channels climate change affects the economy through, and complementary policies might be required to avoid carbon-intensive lock-ins.
    Keywords: Climate change; Agent based models; Transition; Energy policy; Growth
    JEL: C63 Q40 Q50 Q54
    Date: 2018–09
  2. By: Hanan Ishaque (Alpen-Adria University Klagenfurt)
    Abstract: The use of renewable energy (RE) sources contributes to the sustainable development goals of climate change mitigation and access to clean and affordable energy. To diversify the electricity mix, reduce reliance on fossil-fuels and abate powers sector CO2 emissions, the Government of Pakistan developed a policy to incentivize RE deployment by offering upfront feed-in tariffs (FIT). This paper attempts to estimate the cost of CO2 emission abatement with RE incentives for solar and wind power plants for the period 2015-2020. The implicit cost of CO2 abatement defined as the ratio of net cost of RE to CO2 emissions avoided is estimated to be $116/tCO2 for wind and $78/tCO2 for solar power. The payment to generators guaranteed by FITs is a major determinant and explains the difference between the implicit abatement costs of solar and wind power. These estimates, however, are sensitive to the resources displaced by RE and the fuel prices. This study provides a framework to the policymakers for analysis of RE incentives recognizing the dynamic nature of the abatement cost metric and discusses policy implications in the light of the results.
    Keywords: CO2 abatement cost, renewable energy, feed-in tariff, Pakistan
    JEL: C54 E60 O13
    Date: 2018–07
  3. By: Renner, Sebastian; Lay, Jann; Schleicher, Michael
    Abstract: We study the welfare, energy poverty, and CO2 emission implications of energy price change scenarios in Indonesia. Our analysis extends previous analyses of energy price impacts at the household level in several ways. First, by employing a household energy demand system (QUAIDS), we are able to distinguish between first- and second-order welfare effects over the income distribution. Our analysis shows considerable heterogeneity of welfare impacts. For gasoline and electricity, first-order calculations overestimate welfare effects by 10 to 20 per cent for price changes between 20 and 50 per cent. Second, our results point to the ownership of energy-processing durables as another source of impact heterogeneity. Poor households that own these goods may be hit particularly strongly by energy price increases. Third, we extend the welfare analysis beyond the money-metric utility effects and look at energy poverty, which is understood as the absence of or imperfect access to reliable and clean modern energy services. Drawing on the estimated demand function, we find that price increases have substantial effects on energy poverty. Fourth, our analysis explicitly considers the emissions effects of energy price scenarios. We find that reduced household energy demand implies a substantial reduction in emissions. The analysis thus indicates that energy prices may serve as an effective mitigation instrument but also have important adverse welfare effects. The latter can, however, be mitigated by appropriate compensation policies.
    Keywords: energy subsidies,climate policy,poverty,distributional effects,energy poverty
    Date: 2017
  4. By: Alvaro Gonzalez-Castellanos; David Pozo; Sergio Martinez; Luis Lopez; Ingrid Oliveros
    Abstract: The creation of the Renewable Energy Law (Law 1715 of 2014) promotes the introduction of large-scale renewable energy generation in the Colombian electricity market. The new legislation aims to diversify the country's generation matrix, mainly composed of hydro and fuel-based generation, with a share of 66% and 34% respectively. Currently, three wind generation projects, with an aggregated capacity of 500 MW, have been commissioned in the North of the country. This study analyses the economic impact of the large-scale introduction of wind generation on both, the market spot price and conventional generation plants operation. For this purpose, the study builds a unit commitment model to mimic the current market legislation and the system's generation data. We show that the introduction of wind energy into the Colombian electricity market would impact the generation share of large hydro and gas-fired power plants. The hydro generation has an important role in balancing the generation for fluctuations on the wind resource. Meanwhile, the gas-fired plants would decrease their participation in the market, proportionally to the introduction of wind generation in the system, by as low as 20% of its current operation.
    Date: 2018–10
  5. By: Renner, Sebastian; Lay, Jann; Greve, Hannes
    Abstract: We analyse the effects of environmental taxes on welfare and carbon emissions at the household level for the case of Mexico. The integrated welfare-environmental analysis, which is based on a censored energy consumer demand system, extends previous work in two ways. First, the estimation of a full matrix of substitution elasticities allows us to test the necessity of incorporating second-order effects into the welfare analysis. Second, the substitution elasticities derived from the demand system are used to estimate the shortrun CO2 emission-reduction potential. We find that first-order approximations of welfare effects provide reasonable estimates, particularly for carbon taxes. Analog to evidence in other low- and middle-income countries, the taxation of all energy items is found to be regressive, with the exception of motor fuels. The inclusion of CH4 and N2O in a carbon tax regime comes with particularly regressive impacts because of its strong effects on food prices. The analysis of the emission implications of different tax scenarios indicates that short-run emission reductions at the household level can be substantial - though the effects depend on how revenue is recycled. This effectiveness combined with moderate and manageable adverse distributional impacts renders the carbon tax a preferred mitigation instrument. Considering the large effect of food price increases on poverty and the limited additional emission-saving potential, the inclusion of CH4 and N2O in a carbon tax regime is not advisable.
    Keywords: climate policy,energy policy,Mexico,poverty,distributional effects
    Date: 2017
  6. By: Gerard Llobet (CEMFI, Centro de Estudios Monetarios y Financieros); Jorge Padilla (Compass Lexecon)
    Abstract: This paper examines the optimal capacity choices of conventional power generators after the introduction of renewable production. We start with a basic and generally accepted model of the liberalized wholesale electricity market in which firms have insufficient incentives to invest and we illustrate how the entry of renewable generation tends to aggravate that problem. We show that the incentives to invest in firm capacity (e.g. conventional thermal plants) may be restored by means of a capacity auction mechanism. That mechanism is vulnerable and, hence, may prove ineffective unless governments can credibly commit not to sponsor the entry of new capacity outside the auction mechanism. We explain that such commitment may be particularly difficult in the current political context where energy policy is conditioned by environmental and industrial-policy goals. We finally propose a way to enhance the credibility of capacity auctions by committing to optimally retire idle (conventional) power plants in response to entry outside the auction.
    Keywords: Conventional generation, renewable energy, security of supply, missing-money problem, environmental goals, capacity payments.
    JEL: L51 L94
    Date: 2018–01
  7. By: Gómez-Ríos, María del Carmen; Juárez-Luna, David
    Abstract: This paper aims to calculate the Total Levelized Cost of Generation with Externalities (CTNGE, in Spanish) of three baseload technologies: coal thermoelectric, combined cycle and nuclear power plant. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the CTNGE probability densities. The portfolio theory is used to find the mix of technologies that provides the least risky CTNGE and with the lowest average. We find that the nuclear power plant has the lowest CTNGE. The coal-fired thermoelectric plant is the technology with the largest and riskiest CTNGE. The analysis suggests that, when generating electricity, it is convenient to leave out the coal-fired thermoelectric plant and focus on two technologies: combined cycle and nuclear power plant, assigning a higher participation to the latter. One limitation of the work is that the probability densities of the CTNGE estimated through the Monte Carlo simulation depend on the data used. The present analysis suggests that the CTNGE can be significantly modified by including the cost of CO2.
    Keywords: CO2 Emissions, Generation, Electricity, Levelized Cost.
    JEL: D81 G11 Q40 Q53
    Date: 2018–08–16
  8. By: Karel Janda (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic; Department of Banking and Insurance, Faculty of Finance and Accounting, University of Economics, Namesti Winstona Churchilla 4, 13067 Prague, Czech Republic); Jakub Kourilek (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: This paper introduces residual shape risk as a new subclass of energy commodity risk. Residual shape risk is caused by insufficient liquidity of energy forward market when retail energy supplier has to hedge his short sales by a non-exible standard baseload product available on wholesale market. Because of this inflexibility energy supplier is left with residual unhedged position which has to be closed at spot market. The residual shape risk is defined as a difference between spot and forward prices weighted by residual unhedged position which size depends on the shape of customers' portfolio of a given retail energy supplier. For empirical evaluation of residual shape risk we use a real portfolio of a leading natural gas retail supplier in the Czech Republic over the period 2016-2017. The size of residual shape risk in our example corresponds approximately to 1 percent of profit margin of natural gas retail supplier.
    Keywords: natural gas markets, spot prices, forward prices, residual shape risk
    JEL: C51 C58 Q41 Q47
    Date: 2018–10
  9. By: Danladi Galadima, Mukhtar; Wambai Aminu, Abubakar
    Abstract: This paper investigates asymmetric cointegration, asymmetric adjustment, and causality between natural gas consumption and economic growth in Nigeria using the momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) model and the Granger-causality test in a momentum threshold error correction model (M-TECM). The results revealed evidence of asymmetric cointegration, asymmetric adjustment which suggests that the negative discrepancies from the equilibrium error adjust more rapidly than the positive discrepancies and that there is bidirectional causality between the two variables. The implication of the results is that a shock that decreases the impact of natural gas consumption on economic growth adjusts more rapidly than a shock that increases it and that a consistent natural gas supply increases growth and similarly a rise in growth leads to rise in natural gas consumption. Therefore, policymakers in Nigeria need to confine more attention to the shocks stemming from the decrease in natural gas consumption and the country should adopt energy exploration policies.
    Keywords: Keywords: Asymmetric Cointegration, Asymmetric Adjustment, Causality, Natural Gas Consumption, Economic Growth
    JEL: Q43
    Date: 2017–11–30
  10. By: Timothé Beaufils; Pierre-Olivier Pineau
    Abstract: Increasing penetration of decentralized energy resources (DER) is currently disrupting distribution grid’s monopoly. Basic tariff structures, mostly based on energy charges, are being outdated. Prosumers, a new class of residential ratepayers being both producers and consumers of electricity keep using the grid while their financial contribution is decreasing, causing tariff rises and inequities among users. This phenomenon, known under the term of “utility death spiral”, represents a major threat to utilities’ profitability. To tackle those new challenges, Distribution System Operators (DSOs) must improve their rate policies. In Europe, each utility is unbundled, allowing high flexibility in setting rates design. This results in a lot of different grid tariff structures applied, some of them being particularly daring. In North America, the situation is particularly unclear due to the heterogeneity of actor’s nature. Though, most utilities still seem to rely mostly on volumetric and fixed charges. Finally, this report aims to offer a global overview of the current challenges faced by grid utilities, and on how some DSOs are trying to move forward. By doing so, we hope that rate politics’ stakeholders will have a broader vision on the range of decent practices. Le développement des technologies décentralisées remet en question la place des réseaux dans le marché de l’électricité. Les structures tarifaires standards, principalement basées sur la quantité d’énergie consommée, ne sont désormais plus adaptées, et entraînent des risques de baisse de revenus pour les opérateurs de réseaux. Les consommacteurs, une nouvelle classe d’usagers qui investit dans les technologies de production et de stockage à domicile, continuent de bénéficier des avantages du réseau sans en payer une juste part. Ce phénomène, connu sous le nom de « spirale de la mort », est susceptible d’avoir des conséquences très néfastes sur la stabilité financière des opérateurs de réseau, et contrevient au principe d’équité censé guider la conception des structures tarifaires. Face à la nécessité de changer la composition du prix de l’électricité, on observe une grande hétérogénéité de pratiques autour du monde. Le marché européen, entièrement dégroupé entre producteurs, organismes de transmission, distributeurs et fournisseurs d’énergie, connait une grande variété de structures tarifaires, avec des prises de position très marquées en faveur de l’une ou l’autre des alternatives. En Amérique du Nord, si la diversité des statuts des opérateurs de distribution complique les comparaisons, l’introduction de nouveaux modes de tarification semble pour l’instant très marginale, et les tarifs volumétriques sont encore largement dominant. Finalement, ce rapport dresse un état des lieux succins des défis que doivent affronter les opérateurs de réseaux électriques, et propose un aperçu des réponses proposées autour du monde à ces divers enjeux. Il pourra apporter des points de repères sur les pratiques déjà en place, afin d’éclairer les acteurs impliqués dans la définition des politiques tarifaires.
    Date: 2018–08–17
  11. By: Grégoire Wallenborn
    Abstract: The promise of energy efficiency brings us to a lighter world, to a world that has less “losses” or dissipation. Energy efficiency is the realm of engineers, for whom machines can be described as quantitative inputs and outputs. The world of machines is supposed to be progressively “dematerialised” through various improvements in resource efficiency. Of course, we observe exactly the reverse: a multiplication of machines and growing resource exploitation. The possibility that improved efficiency leads to a world with more objects and more activities is called the Jevons paradox. In this paper, I explore this paradox through various academic disciplines (neoclassical economics, ecology, technology, sociology), taking seriously the way these disciplines not only analyse but also construct their proper worlds. The description of rebound effects is intimately linked to energy demand issues and to the understanding of how this demand is created and uncontrolled. A good description of rebound effects requires understanding how temporal and spatial aspects affect energy demand. The main argument of the paper is then the following: rebounds are systemic effects when saved energy is used elsewhere, at another time. Rebounds arise faster when infrastructures and markets enable energy to circulate, and when energy consumers are in competition. Rebounds participate then to the concentration of power. In conclusion, energy efficiency is a big business that actualises many materializations, machines and infrastructures, ever more high performance artifacts, always more productive.
    Keywords: rebound effects, social practices, ecosystems, machines
    Date: 2018–10–02
  12. By: Robert Vermeulen; Edo Schets; Melanie Lohuis; Barbara Kolbl; David-Jan Jansen; Willem Heeringa
    Abstract: Almost 200 countries have signed the Paris Agreement: 7 a pledge to keep the global temperature rise well below 2 degrees Celsius. To realize this pledge, global greenhouse gas emissions will need to be reduced substantially. This, in turn, requires a global transition to a low-carbon economy and energy system. Such an energy transition may give rise to shocks that could be disruptive for the financial system. This Occasional Study investigates the potential financial stability impact of a disruptive energy transition for the financial sector of the Netherlands by conducting a stress test.
    Date: 2018–10
  13. By: Imelda, Imelda
    Abstract: This paper investigates on the extent to which the switching improves households' standard of living. Using a nationwide transition from kerosene to cleaner burning propane in Indonesia, I explore households' consumption response to fuel switching from a nation wide kerosene to liquid petroleum gas conversion program in Indonesia. Based on combustion efficiency and end-use energy equivalence, LPG is cleaner and more efficient than kerosene. Using variation in the timing of the implementation on four waves of the Indonesia longitudinal survey, I compare changes in expenditure within households of targeted districts with changes in expenditure within households of untargeted districts. I find that households reduce their kerosene consumption up to 100% and their fuel expenses are reduced by 40%, or 1.19 USD per month on average. These effects are higher among poor households. I do not find any response to other nondurable expenditures which provides some evidence of consumption smoothing. This is as expected considering the size of the effect is only about a 2% reduction from total monthly expenditure.
    Date: 2018–10–26
  14. By: Nyoni, Bothwell; Phiri, Andrew
    Abstract: With escalating fears of climate change reaching irreversible levels, much emphasis has been recently placed on shifting to renewable sources of energy in supporting future economic livelihood. Focusing on South Africa, as Africa’s largest energy consumer and producer, our study investigates the short-run and long-run effects of renewable energy on economic growth using linear and nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) models. Working with data availability, our empirical analysis is carried out over the period of 1991 to 2016, and our results unanimously fail to confirm any linear or nonlinear cointegration effects of the consumption and production of renewable energy on South African economic growth. We view the absence of cointergation relations as an indication of inefficient usage of renewable energy in supporting sustainable growth in South Africa and hence advise policymakers to accelerate the establishment of necessary renewable infrastructure in supporting future energy requirements.
    Keywords: Renewable energy; economic growth; ARDL; nonlinear ARDL; South Africa; Sub-Sahara Africa (SSA).
    JEL: C13 C32 C52 Q43
    Date: 2018–10–29
  15. By: Karel Janda (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic; Department of Banking and Insurance, Faculty of Finance and Accounting, University of Economics, Namesti Winstona Churchilla 4, 13067 Prague, Czech Republic); Ladislav Kristoufek (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: We assess the fuel-food price linkage models of the structural and of the time series nature with the main attention devoted to the time series literature. We document shifting focus from a straightforward vector autoregressive and error-correction analysis of fuel-food commodity price level co-movement towards inclusion of biodiesel and ethanol prices directly into analysis, towards consideration of both price levels and price volatilities, and towards growing sophistication of econometric methodologies and integration of econometrics of price co-movement with theoretical considerations. The key insight of biofuels price transmission literature is that the price transmission is time and market specific, evolving with the development of biofuels policies and technologies. The most prominent relationships are coming from oil to agricultural commodities and then towards biofuels. While here are also studies not finding any strong connection between biofuels and their feedstock, the literature finding biofuels driving the prices of agricultural commodities up is negligible.
    Keywords: biofuels, fuels, food, ethanol, biodiesel, oil
    JEL: Q16 Q42 Q56
    Date: 2018–10
  16. By: Derek Lemoine
    Abstract: Energy efficiency improvements "rebound" when economic responses undercut their direct energy savings. I show that general equilibrium channels typically amplify rebound by making consumption goods cheaper but typically dampen rebound by increasing the cost of non-energy inputs to production. Improvements in energy efficiency are especially likely to increase total energy use when they arise in the energy supply sector because they make energy inputs cheaper in all other sectors. When energy and non-energy inputs are substitutes (complements), innovators often direct research efforts towards those consumption good sectors where improvements in efficiency are especially likely to increase (decrease) total energy use.
    JEL: D58 O31 O33 Q41
    Date: 2018–10
  17. By: Justin Leroux; Daniel Spiro
    Abstract: Arctic oil extraction is inconsistent with the 2°C target. We study unilateral strategies by climate-concerned Arctic countries to deter extraction by others. Contradicting common theoretical assumptions about climate-change mitigation, our setting is one where countries may fundamentally disagree about whether mitigation by others is beneficial. This is because Arctic oil extraction requires specific R&D, hence entry by one country expands the extraction-technology market, decreasing costs for others. This means that, on the one hand, countries that extract Arctic oil gain if others do so as well. On the other hand, as countries may disagree about how harmful climate change is, they may disagree whether an equilibrium where all enter is better or worse than an equilibrium where all stay out. Less environmentally-concerned countries (preferring maximum entry) have a first-mover advantage but, because they rely on entry by others, entry in equilibrium is determined by the preferences of those who are moderately concerned about the environment. Furthermore, using a pooling strategy, an environmentally-concerned country can deter entry by credibly “pretending” to be environmentally adamant, and thus be expected to not follow. A rough calibration, suggests a country like Norway, or prospects of a green future U.S. administration, could be pivotal in determining whether the Arctic will be explored.
    Keywords: Arctic Region,Oil Exploration,Climate Change,Geopolitics,Unilateral Action,
    JEL: D82 F5 O33 Q3 Q54
    Date: 2018–08–15
  18. By: Asuamah Yeboah, Samuel
    Abstract: The study examines the long run effect of investment (proxied by gross fixed capital formation) on electricity consumption for Ghana, for the period 1971-2011, by employing annual time series secondary data from World Bank database (World development indicator). The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Kwiatkowski-Philips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) tests were used to analyse the stationarity features of the data used in levels and in their first differences. The empirical verification was done using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model (ARDL). The findings of the study indicate the data used are non-stationary in levels, however, stationary in their first difference. Investment and electricity consumption are cointegrated according to the cointegration test performed. There are both stable short run and long run relationship between investment and electricity consumption. Investment is an appropriate policy tool for electricity consumption management in both short run and long run. Further studies in the area of stationarity with structural breaks, cointegration with structural breaks, causality analysis, and multivariate modelling of investment-electricity consumption link is worth doing since the current study did not consider these issues.
    Keywords: Cointegration, energy, long run, fixed capital formation
    JEL: D92 E22 F21 G31 H54 O13 O16 P28 P45 P48 Q42 Q43 R42 R53
    Date: 2018–10–28
  19. By: Grant Allan (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Andrew G Ross (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: Anticipated changes in energy provision over the next decades will likely have major implications on employment within energy activities. To understand the possible consequences, many studies have considered the level and types of employment in existing energy technologies. Using the hypothetical extraction approach for the UK, we explore the employment in and supported by energy activities - including across occupations and skills categories. We show that the impact on occupation and skills across the whole economy is more evenly spread than the employment in individual sectors. From the empirical results presented here, it is evident that the system-wide demands for skills including not only the direct, but also knock-on effects across the economy can change the pattern of labour market needs, which have implications for labour market planning in the low carbon transition.
    Keywords: C67, J21, Q43
    Date: 2018–09
  20. By: Obschonka, Martin; Stuetzer, Michael; Rentfrow, Peter J.; Shaw-Taylor, Leigh; Satchell, Max; Silbereisen, Rainer K.; Potter, Jeff; Gosling, Samuel D.
    Abstract: Recent research has identified regional variation of personality traits within countries but we know little about the underlying drivers of this variation. We propose that the Industrial Revolution, as a key era in the history of industrialized nations, has led to a persistent clustering of well-being outcomes and personality traits associated with psychological adversity via processes of selective migration and socialization. Analyzing data from England and Wales, we examine relationships between the historical employment share in large-scale coal-based industries (coal mining and steam-powered manufacturing industries that used this coal as fuel for their steam engines) and today’s regional variation in personality and well-being. Even after controlling for possible historical confounds (historical energy supply, education, wealth, geology, climate, population density), we find that the historical local dominance of large-scale coal-based industries predicts today’s markers of psychological adversity (lower Conscientiousness [and order facet scores], higher Neuroticism [and anxiety and depression facet scores], lower activity [an Extraversion facet], and lower life satisfaction and life expectancy). An instrumental variable analysis, using the historical location of coalfields, supports the causal assumption behind these effects (with the exception of life satisfaction). Further analyses focusing on mechanisms hint at the roles of selective migration and persisting economic hardship. Finally, a robustness check in the U.S. replicates the effect of the historical concentration of large-scale industries on today’s levels of psychological adversity. Taken together, the results show how today’s regional patterns of personality and well-being may have their roots in major societal changes underway decades or centuries earlier.
    Keywords: Industrial Revolution, regional well-being, adversity, Big Five personality traits, historical factors
    JEL: I31 N93
    Date: 2018
  21. By: Johansson, Per-Olov (Stockholm School of Economics); Kriström, Bengt (Department of Economics, SLU)
    Abstract: This paper offers a non-technical overview of the issues involved when applying cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to hydropower, both in terms of new installations and changing existing regulatory structures. Our focus is on the conceptual and empirical problems of applying CBA to provide decision support in such cases. A large body of literature now exists on the social net values of generating electricity from moving water. The studies focusing values related to the ecological system include, but are not limited to, effects on climate, aesthetics, landscape, recreation and wildlife. Taken together, they confirm the view that the public invariably seems to place significant values on the integrity of the ecological system. It does, however, not seem possible to draw general conclusions from the literature on whether or not a given (dis)investment will pass a cost-benefit test; the end-result depends entirely on the specifics.
    Keywords: Cost-Benefit Analysis; Ecosystem Services; Energy; Sustainable Energy System; Hydropower
    JEL: H43 Q41 Q42 Q51
    Date: 2018–10–15
  22. By: Weinand, Jann; McKenna, Russell; Karner, Katharina; Braun, Lorenz; Herbes, Carsten
    Abstract: This paper analyses the current technical potential for utilising excess heat from German biogas plants, in order to supply local settlements through district heating. Based on a survey of around 600 biogas plant operators, the fractions of excess heat in these plants are analysed. A heuristic is developed to match biogas plants (heat sources) with local settlements (sinks) in order to determine a least-cost district heating supply for residential buildings. Two criteria are employed, namely the CO2 abatement costs and the payback period, which represent the macro- and microeconomic perspectives respectively. Based on the survey, a mean fraction of 40% excess heat is determined, which is in agreement with other empirical studies. Extrapolating this fraction to the German biogas plant stock leads to technically feasible CO2 savings of around 2.5 MtCO2/a. Employing the criteria of CO2 abatement costs and payback period yields about 2 MtCO2/a below CO2 abatement costs of 200 €/tCO2 and below a payback period of 9 years respectively. This represents about 0.25% of the total German CO2 emissions in 2016 or around 2.5% of all CO2 in residential buildings. If threshold values of 80 €/tCO2 and 5 years are employed, to reflect the German government's suggested external cost of carbon and an expected payback period from an investor's point of view respectively, the carbon reduction potential is about 0.5 MtCO2 and 0.75 MtCO2 respectively. These potentials are concentrated in around 3,500 of 11,400 municipalities, where district heating from biogas plants could reduce CO2 emissions per capita by an average of 250 kgCO_2/a and cover 12% of the total heating demand.
    Date: 2018
  23. By: Malcolm Baker; Daniel Bergstresser; George Serafeim; Jeffrey Wurgler
    Abstract: We study green bonds, which are bonds whose proceeds are used for environmentally sensitive purposes. After an overview of the U.S. corporate and municipal green bonds markets, we study pricing and ownership patterns using a simple framework that incorporates assets with nonpecuniary utility. As predicted, we find that green municipal bonds are issued at a premium to otherwise similar ordinary bonds. We also confirm that green bonds, particularly small or essentially riskless ones, are more closely held than ordinary bonds. These pricing and ownership effects are strongest for bonds that are externally certified as green.
    JEL: G12 Q52 Q53 Q54
    Date: 2018–10
  24. By: Andre G Ross (Department of Economics University of Strathclyde); Grant Allan (Department of Economics University of Strathclyde); Gioele Figus (Department of Economics University of Strathclyde); Peter McGregor (Department of Economics University of Strathclyde); J Kim Swales (Department of Economics University of Strathclyde); Karen Turner (Centre for Energy Policy, University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: The wider impacts of energy policy on the macro-economy are increasingly recognised in the academic and policy-oriented literatures. Additionally, the interdependence of energy and economy implies that a (policy) change in the non-energy system impacts on the energy system. However, such spillovers on the energy system have not been extensively researched. We begin by analysing the impacts of export promotion policies - a key element of the UK’s Industrial Strategy - on the energy system and energy policy goals. As the impacts of such policies are, in large part, transmitted via their effects on the economy, we adopt a computable general equilibrium model - UK-ENVI - that fully captures such interdependence. Our results suggest that an across-the-board stimulus to exports increases total energy use significantly. This does not come directly through energy exports, but indirectly through the energy sectors’ linkages to other sectors. Export led growth therefore impacts on energy use - and significantly so. This in turn is likely to have an adverse impact on emission targets. Policy makers should be aware of the fact that a successful implementation of the Industrial Strategy may create significant tensions with the UK’s Clean Growth Strategy, for example, and with the goals of energy policy more generally. The importance of this effect will in practice depend upon: the mix of goods and services that are exported (an issue that we shall address once the export strategy is published); the success of low-carbon policies. Ultimately, a knowledge of the nature and scale of these spillover effects of economic policies on the energy system creates the potential for more effective and efficient policy making.
    Keywords: energy policy, industrial strategy, trade policy
    JEL: C68 D58 Q43 Q48
    Date: 2018–07
  25. By: Juan Benavides; Ángela Cadena
    Abstract: El sector eléctrico de Colombia se transformó profunda y positivamente con la reforma de las Leyes 142 y 143 de 1994. La liberalización del mercado, la introducción de formación de precios competitiva en generación, la regulación por incentivos en transmisión y distribución, los avances institucionales en regulación (creación de la CREG) y en supervisión de las firmas reguladas (SSPD) sirvieron de inspiración internacional por lo menos durante cinco años. Con el tiempo se han acumulado problemas y han aparecido oportunidades de mejora del mercado. Hay que aumentar la competencia, diversificar el portafolio de generación, ayudar a monetizar los recursos locales embebidos en las redes de distribución y modernizar la arquitectura de mercado y la regulación. El trabajo consta de cinco capítulos, además de este resumen. El capítulo 1 presenta las características de la electricidad como bien económico y compara la evolución del mercado eléctrico del Reino Unido (la experiencia original) con el de Colombia. El capítulo 2 discute los problemas centrales del modelo colombiano. El capítulo 3 identifica oportunidades. El capítulo 4 compila las propuestas. El capítulo 5 concluye. Los mensajes centrales del trabajo son: • Los precios de generación son crecientes y la competencia es baja. • El portafolio de generación está alejado de la frontera eficiente de costos y riesgos. • El mecanismo de entrada (cargo por confiabilidad) es ineficaz para tecnologías que pueden reducir el riesgo de suministro y los costos de generación. • La arquitectura de mercado y la regulación están desactualizadas. • Las energías renovables, los recursos energéticos descentralizados y el impulso a la generación con gas licuado solucionarán problemas y crearán opciones.
    Keywords: Mercado Eléctrico, Sector Eléctrico, Electricidad, Crecimiento Económico, Energía Eléctrica, Política Pública, Colombia
    JEL: L94 Q43 F43 O47 O13 L38
    Date: 2018–10–15
  26. By: Viktoras Kulionis
    Abstract: Most of today's products and services are made in global supply chains. As a result, a consumption of goods and services in one country is associated with various environmental pressures all over the world due to international trade. Advances in global multi-region input-output models have allowed researchers to draw detailed, international supply-chain connections between production and consumptions activities and associated environmental impacts. Due to a limited data availability there is little evidence about the more recent trends in global energy footprint. In order to expand the analytical potential of the existing WIOD 2016 dataset to a wider range of research themes, this paper develops energy accounts and presents the global energy footprint trends for the period 2000-2014.
    Date: 2018–10
  27. By: Marion Bary (IODE - Institut de l'Ouest : Droit et Europe - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Marie-Hélène Hubert
    Date: 2016–12–01
  28. By: David A. Belsley; Roy E. Welsch
  29. By: Flores, Daniel; Luna, Edgar
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of daylight saving time (DST) on households’ consumption of electricity in Mexico. Differences-in-differences estimates suggest that current savings in households’ electricity consumption due to DST account for almost 0.6% of total electricity consumption in the country. Nevertheless, the effect of DST is not homogeneous along the whole period in which it is in effect (from April to October). Savings are larger toward the end of the period.
    Keywords: Daylight saving time; time series, Mexico
    JEL: Q48
    Date: 2018
  30. By: Glyn Wittwer; Mark Horridge
    Abstract: The TERM methodology requires relatively modest data requirements to create a multi-regional, sub-national CGE database. SinoTERM365 is an extreme form of stretching available data, with the master database representing 162 sectors in 365 prefectural regions of the Chinese economy. A collaborative effort is envisaged among users to enable ongoing improvements to the database. The TERM approach facilitates rapid amendments to the database when improved data are available. The alternative, to wait until better data emerge before building a model, may result in less detail and a less versatile framework for analysis. In our example, we consider a downturn in use of coal and coal-generated electricity in China.
    Keywords: sub-national general equilibrium modeling regional structural change greenhouse gas abatement
    JEL: C68 D58 R13 R15
    Date: 2018–10
  31. By: Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández; Serena Sordi
    Abstract: In a recent article published in Ecological Economics, Guarini and Porcile (2016) expanded the Balance-of-Payments Constraint (BoPC) growth model in order to address the challenges posed by greenhouse gas emissions suggesting a way in which environmental variables can be included in the structure of this family of models. Building on their set up, we incorporate how people with di¤erent environmental attitudes or sentiments influence each other and contribute to the design of environmental policies. We detail the concept of transition probabilities for the agent's switching from pro- to anti-enviromental positions and vice-versa and discuss the macroeconomic results that follow. Numerical simulations allow us to investigate in more detail the implications of the validity of Porter's hypothesis as well as decoupling conditions.
    Keywords: Sustainability, Open economy, Environmental innovation, Porter's hypothesis, Thirwall's Law.
    JEL: E12 F43 Q55 Q56 Q57
    Date: 2018–09
  32. By: Hamid R Tabarraei; Hamed Ghiaie; Asghar Shahmoradi
    Abstract: The structural model in this paper proposes a micro-founded framework that incorporates an active banking sector with an oil-producing sector. The primary goal of adding a banking sector is to examine the role of an interbank market on shocks, introduce a national development fund and study its link to the banking sector and the government. The government and the national development fund directly play key roles in the propagation of the oil shock. In contrast, the banking sector and the labor market, through perfect substitution between the oil and non-oil sectors, have major indirect impacts in spreading shocks.
    Keywords: Banking;Financial crises;Central banks and their policies;Oil-exporting countries, Oil-Reserve Fund, DSGE, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, General
    Date: 2018–10–02
  33. By: Chen, Chaoyi; Polemis, Michael; Stengos, Thanasis
    Abstract: We employ a pooled panel threshold model along the lines of Seo and Shin (2016) within an error correction framework to re-investigate the “rockets and feathers” hypothesis. The empirical results confirm the superiority of the threshold model compared to the baseline linear specifications, while attributing the asymmetric gasoline adjustment mechanism to Exchange Rate Pass Through (ERPT).
    Keywords: Gasoline asymmetry; Threshold; ERPT; Error Correction Model; EU
    JEL: C24 L16
    Date: 2018–08–29
  34. By: Taheripour, Farzad; Luis Moises Pena Levano; Wally Tyner
    Abstract: The standard GTAP data bases do not explicitly represent production, consumption, and trade of biofuels. In response to the growing demand for biofuels research, biofuels (including ethanol produced from grains, ethanol produced from sugarcane, and biodiesel produced from vegetable oils) were introduced in to the GTAP data base version 6 which represents the global economy in 2001 [1]. In 2001 the global production of biofuels (including ethanol and biodiesel) was about 5 billion gallons. Then the first and second generation of biofuels were introduced into the GTAP data base version 7 for 2004 [2]. In 2004 the global production of all types of first generation of biofuels was about 7.8 billion gallons. In 2004, there was no commercial production of second generation of biofuels (biofuels produced from cellulosic materials). However, several second generation biofuel technologies were introduced into this data base. Several studies have used the first and second versions of the GTAP-BIO data bases to project the economic and land use impacts of biofuel production and policy at the global scale
    Date: 2017
  35. By: Stephen Polasky (Boston College)
    Keywords: Creation Date: 19860901
  36. By: Kaplan, Robert S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
    Abstract: An essay by Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan from June 19, 2018.
    Date: 2018–06–19
  37. By: Stephen Polasky (Boston College)

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