nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2018‒10‒22
forty-one papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Does energy price affect energy efficiency? Cross-country panel evidence By Roberto Antonietti; Fulvio Fontini
  2. Economic growth and development with low-carbon energy By Fankhauser, Samuel; Jotzo, Frank
  3. Simple Rules for Climate Policy and Integrated Assessment By Rick van der Ploeg; Armon Rezai
  4. Can Cleaner Environment Promote International Trade? Environmental Policies as Export Promoting Mechanisms By Ioanna Pantelaiou; Panos Hatzipanayotou; Panagiotis Konstantinou; Anastasios Xepapadeas
  5. The Nexus between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: New Insights from Meta Analysis By Jamal Bouoiyour; Refk Selmi; Ilhan Ozturk
  6. Study of Retail Electricity Consumers’ Response and Perception Regarding Electricity Consumption By Mitra, Krishnendranath; Dutta, Goutam
  7. "Energy and climate policy for the building sector – Which perspectives have to be taken into account and what are their requirements regarding successful policy implications? " By Nikolas D. Müller; Andreas Pfnür
  8. Resource curse in oil exporting countries By Evgeny Kakanov; Hansjörg Blöchliger; Lilas Demmou
  9. The influence of energy efficiency on tenants' decision-making: Results of a conjoint analysis in the German rental housing market By Melanie Franke; Claudia Nadler
  10. Reactive Power Procurement: Lessons from Three Leading Countries By Anaya, K.; Pollitt, M.
  11. Pass-through as a test for market power: An application of Solar Subsidies By Jacquelyn Pless; Arthur A. van Benthem
  12. The Nexus between Oil price and Russia’s Real Exchange rate: Better Paths via Unconditional vs Conditional Analysis By Jamal Bouoiyour; Refk Selmi; Aviral Kumar Tiwari; Muhammad Shahbaz
  13. Mitigation Policies for the Paris Agreement: An Assessment for G20 Countries By Ian Parry; Victor Mylonas; Nate Vernon
  14. Provision of Natural Gas Infrastructure and Shifts in Fuel Patterns By Xu, Shang; Klaiber, Allen
  15. Motivations and Communication Effectiveness of Solar Energy Adoption among Malaysian Household Consumers By Siti Haslina Md Harizan
  16. Regulated electricity networks, investment mistakes in retrospect and stranded assets under uncertainty By Simshauser, P., Akimov, A.; Akimov, A.
  17. Dollar canadien et prix du pétrole : quelle causalité ? By Capucine Nobletz
  18. Debt and the Oil Industry - Analysis on the Firm and Production Level By Lips, Johannes
  19. Carbon Taxation for International Maritime Fuels: Assessing the Options By Ian Parry; Dirk Heine; Kelley Kizzier; Tristan Smith
  20. Analysis of Individual Renewable Energy Support: An Enhanced Model By Vladimir Udalov
  21. On the current account-biofuels link in emerging and developing countries: do oil price fluctuations matter? * By Gabriel Gomes; Emmanuel Hache; Valerie Mignon; Anthony Paris
  22. Real-time Forecast Combinations for the Oil Price By Anthony Garratt; Shaun P. Vahey; Ynuyi Zhang
  23. China’s Progress Towards Green Growth: An International Perspective By Myriam Linster; Chan Yang
  24. Cost effects of energy system stability and flexibility options: An integrated optimal power flow modeling approach By Behnert, Marika; Bruckner, Thomas
  25. Breaking the Links: Natural Resource Booms and Intergenerational Mobility By Bütikofer, Aline; Dalla-Zuanna, Antonio; Salvanes, Kjell G.
  26. Energy Transitions, Directed Technical Change and the British Industrial Revolution By Ravshonbek Otojanov
  27. Subsidies and Time Discounting in New Technology Adoption: Evidence from Solar Photovoltaic Systems By De Groote, Olivier; Verboven, Frank
  28. Heterogeneous preferences and the individual change to alternative electricity tariffs By Ziegler, Andreas
  29. Green Technology and Patents in the Presence of Green Consumers By Langinier, Corinne; Ray Chaudhuri, Amrita
  30. Do energy leases decrease credit constraints for U.S. farms?: Evidence from TOTAL By Grout, Travis; Ifft, Jennifer E.
  31. Country income, sources of carbon emissions and counterfactuals By Amin, Modhurima D.; Badruddoza, Syed
  32. P2 Participation: A Potential Source of Pollution Leakage? By Rijal, Binish; Khanna, Neha
  33. Does California’s LCFS Reduce CO2 Emissions? By Huseynov, Samir; Palma, Marco A.
  34. The Electricity Consumption in a Rentier State: Do Institutions Matter ? By Jamal Bouoiyour; Refk Selmi; Muhammad Shahbaz
  35. Straw as alternative energy source or organic matter in the soil By Zietara, Wojciech; Zielinski, Marek
  36. Factor prices and induced technical change in the Industrial Revolution By Ravshonbek Otojanov and Roger Fouquet
  37. The Impact of a Carbon Tax on Food Prices in Canada By Wu, Tingting; Thomassin, Paul J.
  38. How Does Shale Gas Development Affect Housing Values in Rural Areas By Keeler, Zachary T.; Stephens, Heather
  39. Does the Benefit of Pollinator Habitat at Solar Facilities Exceed the Costs? By Khadka Mishra, Shruti; Zhu, Minjia
  40. Costs of Inefficient Regulation: Evidence from the Bakken By Lade, Gabriel; Rudik, Ivan
  41. William D. Nordhaus and Paul M. Romer: Economic Growth, Technological Change, and Climate Change By Committee, Nobel Prize

  1. By: Roberto Antonietti (Department of Economics and Management, University of Padova); Fulvio Fontini (Interdepartmental Centre for Energy Economics and Technology, University of Padova)
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the relationship between energy intensity and energy price in a panel of 120 countries over 34 years, from 1980 to 2013. We use information on energy intensity and real oil price, and merge it with macroeconomic data on the countries’ structural characteristics. We assess their direction of causality using fixed effects, dynamic panel data models and Granger causality tests. We identify a statistically significant, but weak negative effect of real oil price on energy intensity, which corresponds to a positive effect of energy price on energy efficiency. We also show significant, large regional differences in this relationship. We thus posit that a global policy aimed at increasing the price of oil would induce a limited increase in average energy efficiency through a more efficient use of energy, but this increase would differ considerably across regions around the world.
    Keywords: energy price, energy efficiency, real oil price, panel data
    JEL: Q41 Q43 Q55
    Date: 2018–10
  2. By: Fankhauser, Samuel; Jotzo, Frank
    Abstract: Energy is needed for economic growth, and access to cheap, reliable energy is an essential development objective. Historically most incremental energy demand has been met through fossil fuels; however, in future that energy will have to be low carbon and ultimately zero‐carbon. Decarbonization can and needs to happen at varying speeds in all countries, depending on national circumstances. This article reviews the implications of a transition to low‐carbon energy on economic growth and development in current low‐income countries. It sets out empirical findings about trajectories for energy intensity and emissions intensity of economic growth; explores pathways to accelerate decarbonization; reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on economic costs and co‐benefits of energy decarbonization; and assesses analytical approaches. It discusses the opportunities that might arise in terms of a cleaner, more dynamic and more sustainable growth model, and the options for developing countries to implement a less‐carbon intensive model of economic development
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2017–10–09
  3. By: Rick van der Ploeg; Armon Rezai
    Abstract: A simple integrated assessment framework that gives rules for the optimal carbon price, transition to the carbon-free era and stranded carbon assets is presented, which highlights the ethical, economic, geophysical and political drivers of optimal climate policy. For the ethics we discuss the role of intergenerational inequality aversion and the discount rate, where we show the importance of lower discount rates for appraisal of longer run benefit and of policy makers using lower discount rates than private agents. The economics depends on the costs and rates of technical progress in production of fossil fuel, its substitute renewable energies and sequestration. The geophysics depends on the permanent and transient components of atmospheric carbon and the relatively fast temperature response, and we allow for positive feedbacks. The politics stems from international free-rider problems in absence of a global climate deal. We show how results change if different assumptions are made about each of the drivers of climate policy. Our main objective is to offer an easy back-on-the-envelope analysis, which can be used for teaching and communication with policy makers.
    Keywords: simple rules, climate policy, ethics, economics, geophysics, politics, discounting with declining discount rates, positive feedback, free riding
    JEL: D81 H20 Q31 Q38
    Date: 2018
  4. By: Ioanna Pantelaiou; Panos Hatzipanayotou (Athens University of Economics and Business); Panagiotis Konstantinou (AUEB); Anastasios Xepapadeas
    Abstract: We develop an international duopoly model where the firms export their output to a world-market. Production uses a depletable resource, and it generates pollution which affects negatively households welfare. Governments control pollution using (i) an emission tax, the revenue from which finances public pollution abatement, (ii) a revenue-recycling tax, refunded to the emitting firm contingent on reducing the cost of private pollution abatement, and (iii) an environmentally related standard. We evaluate them as (i) export promoting Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) measuers, and (ii) resource conserving/depleting and welfare enhancing policy instruments. Our results indicate that, by and large (i) public pollution abatement works as an export-promoting but resource depleting mechanism, which under certain conditions can enhance welfare; (ii) revenue recycling works as an export-contracting but resource preserving mechanism, and (iii) environmental standards relative to public abatement work as an export-contracting but resource preserving mechanism, but relative to revenue recycling work in the opposite direction.
    Keywords: Emission taxation, Public Pollution Abatement, Recycling tax revenues, Environmental Related Standards, International Trade.
    JEL: F18 H23 Q58
    Date: 2018–02
  5. By: Jamal Bouoiyour (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Refk Selmi (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Ilhan Ozturk
    Abstract: Although many factors have been identified to explain the nexus between electricity consumption and economic growth, the empirical evidence is rather mixed. Given these contradictory conclusions, we try to find out which outcome the meta analysis would support. To tackle this issue, we meta-analyze the empirical results of 43 studies between 1996 and 2013. We find that the conservation hypothesis is widely associated to American and European countries. However, conservative policies are likely to have an adverse effect on the economic growth in Asian and MENA countries. Conversely to expectations, the growth hypothesis is heavily associated to studied countries and considered modeling specifications. Additionally, while a neutrality hypothesis is insignificantly associated to MENA countries, the feedback hypothesis is not supported when appealing a panel of American economies. Therefore, the inconclusive results may be mainly due to the different country samples, econometric methodologies and to the fact that energy policies cannot be designed without considering economic and environmental factors, which are unfortunately excluded in the majority of studies. Further analysis should focus more on the new approaches rather than usual methods based on a set of common variables for different countries.
    Keywords: Electricity consumption,Economic growth,Meta-analysis
    Date: 2018–09–24
  6. By: Mitra, Krishnendranath; Dutta, Goutam
    Abstract: The price of retail electricity is restricted by regulations and have not increased at a same pace with the ever-growing demand of electricity. However, there exists a considerable amount of consumer surplus that can be harnessed by the electricity industry to improve the quality of service. In this paper we make an attempt to understand some characteristics of household electricity consumer demand. We performed an empirical, descriptive research and used inductive reasoning. Quantitative and qualitative primary data was collected through a questionnaire administered in Microsoft Excel format from 173 respondents. We propose a suitable present and future market segmentation of the retail electricity market based on several demographic and perceptual parameters respectively. We also analyze the demand price relationships and the price elasticities of demand for four appliances. We find that the willingness-to-pay is nearly five times the present average price of electricity. We also present perceptual distances for the future market related to adoption of dynamic prices and renewable energy by consumers.
    Date: 2018–10–12
  7. By: Nikolas D. Müller; Andreas Pfnür
    Abstract: Energy and climate policy for the building sector is a subject of controversial discussion. Against this background, the paper aims to dissolve the complexity and thus generate expertise for politically sustainable decisions. Therefore a. perspectives relevant for policy implementation are elaborated from the literature (i.e. owners, tenants, producers, macroeconomic), b. their specific valuation approaches are exposed and c. regarding the current policy for the building sector discussed. On this basis, we can show that ‘efficiency‘ is a term of a wide variation in the political debate, depending on which perspective is taken. We can present a conceptual model, which shows the interdependencies and interactions of the different valuation approaches. In addition, we can present minimum requirements for a sustainable policy that could be worked out from the discussion, which we use in the end to discuss the appropriateness of alternative control indicators (i. we. primary energy, GHG-Emissions or the energetic quality of the shell) to create equality of interests as a foundation for a successful policy.The work is highly compatible with the interests of the various stakeholders. As a result, it provides a basis for policy implications to enforce energy efficiency and climate protection in the building sector successfully.
    Keywords: Energy and Climate Policy for Real Estate; Energy turnaround; GHG emissions; policy implications; Real Estate Perspectives
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2018–01–01
  8. By: Evgeny Kakanov; Hansjörg Blöchliger; Lilas Demmou
    Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the “resource curse” phenomenon, i.e. the negative impact of oil abundance on long-term economic growth, for a set of oil exporting countries. It distinguishes between two potential drivers of resource courses: oil dependence and oil price volatility, and it investigates whether the resource curse depends on a country’s institutional and macroeconomic environment. The empirical analysis relies on a panel of 24 oil exporters between 1982 and 2012 and an error correction model. The paper provides robust evidence in favour of the resource curse hypothesis, and there is no evidence that higher quality institutions could mitigate the curse. Oil price shocks appear to have an asymmetric impact in the short run: the growth effect is positive when oil prices rise, while no statistically significant effect is observed when they fall. There is also indirect evidence that the impact of an oil price shock is partly offset by fiscal policies, particularly in countries with high oil dependence. In the long run, oil price volatility does not appear to have a statistically significant impact on GDP. Finally, exchange rate regimes seem to play a role: countries allowing their currencies to float seem to gain from positive oil price shocks in the short run, but in the long run a fixed exchange rate regime is associated with higher GDP, probably owing to active stabilisation by sovereign wealth funds.
    Keywords: exchange rate, institutions, oil dependence, oil price shocks, resource curse
    JEL: E02 K00 Q32
    Date: 2018–10–11
  9. By: Melanie Franke; Claudia Nadler
    Abstract: Improving the energy efficiency in the real estate sector plays a decisive key factor in the German energy and climate policy. In order to meet the EU-targets of reducing the energy consumption as well as CO2 emissions energy performance certificates (EPCs) have been introduced to prove the energy efficiency of commercial and residential properties. The aim of the present work is to determine the role of EPCs in the rental decision-making process by investigating their influence on tenants' preferences in the housing market. In this study, we apply a choice-based conjoint (CBC) analysis to investigate the relative importance of different housing characteristics including the apartments' energy efficiency represented by the buildings' EPC. The results suggest an ongoing change in the perception of energy efficiency in the housing market, as the attribute received the third highest importance score after monthly rent and residential area. Moreover, the analysis of different respondent segments provides new insights into the importance of EPCs that strongly depended on the awareness and conscious consideration of the provided information. Thus, the results emphasize a novel perspective on EPCs in the housing market and point out crucial factors for its success as a marketing tool.
    Keywords: CBC; Choice-based Conjoint analysis; energy performance certificates; EPC; Housing Market; Rental decision-making process
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2018–01–01
  10. By: Anaya, K.; Pollitt, M.
    Abstract: This paper explores the international experience in the procurement of reactive power and related electricity ancillary services. It involves system operators from different jurisdictions including Australia, the United States and Great Britain. The paper evaluates the different procurement mechanisms and related compensation schemes. In addition, it also appraises a novel approach (from the Power Potential initiative in the UK) for contracting reactive power services from distributed energy resources (DERs) using a market-based mechanism. The conceptual auction design applicable to the procurement of reactive power is also discussed. Our findings suggest that competition in reactive power is very limited in comparison with other ancillary services such as frequency regulation and capacity reserves. The introduction of more market oriented mechanisms for acquiring reactive and active power services by the system operator opens new opportunities and new ways to deal with voltage stability issues. Power Potential trails a technical and commercial solution, new market roles and the new interactions required in the introduction of a competitive reactive power market.
    Keywords: reactive power, system operators, distributed energy resources, procurement methods, auction market design
    JEL: L51 Q40 Q48
    Date: 2018–10–01
  11. By: Jacquelyn Pless; Arthur A. van Benthem
    Abstract: We formalize pass-through over-shifting as a simple yet under-utilized test for market power. We apply this test in the market for solar energy. Speci cally, we estimate the pass-through of solar subsidies to solar system prices using rich micro-level transaction and subsidy data from California. Buyers of solar systems capture nearly the full subsidy, while there is more-than-complete pass-through to lessees. We conclude that solar markets are imperfectly competitive by ruling out alternative explanations for over-shifting, and reinforce this conclusion with a test of solar demand curvature. This procedure can serve to detect market power beyond the solar market.
    Keywords: solar subsidy, pass-through, over-shifting, demand curvature, market power, third-party ownership, buy vs. lease
    JEL: H22 Q42 Q48 Q58
    Date: 2018
  12. By: Jamal Bouoiyour (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Refk Selmi (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Aviral Kumar Tiwari (ICFAI University Tripura - ICFAI University Tripura); Muhammad Shahbaz (GATECH - College of Computing - Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech))
    Abstract: The present study deals with the nexus between oil price and Russia's real exchange rate along different econometric methods (ARDL bounds testing approach, wavelet coherency and frequency domain through Breitung and Candelon's (2006) technique). The obtained findings are highly suggestive of a sharp causal connection running from oil price to real exchange rate in lower frequencies. The reverse link is not supported. This implies that Russia should effectively tackle with short-run disturbances triggered by oil price and continue to decrease its great dependence on the energy sector via drastic and proactive measures. The economic and fiscal initiatives of Putin administration may help to better cope with sudden shocks, to reach weaker oil dependency and to create the confidence needed for economic recovery. While our research does not say much about the routes through which oil price may affect differently the real exchange rate, it clearly indicates the presence of short-term nexus conditioning upon potential control variables including GDP, governmental revenues, terms of trade and productivity differential. The unconditional analysis appears as a meaningless exercise to find a clearer relationship between the focal variables.
    Keywords: Oil price,Exchange rate,Unconditional analysis,Conditional analysis,Russia
    Date: 2018–09–24
  13. By: Ian Parry; Victor Mylonas; Nate Vernon
    Abstract: Following submission of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation commitments or pledges (by 190 countries) for the 2015 Paris Agreement, policymakers are considering specific actions for their implementation. To help guide policy, it is helpful to have a quantitative framework for understanding: i) the main impacts (on GHGs, fiscal balances, the domestic environment, economic welfare, and distributional incidence) of emissions pricing; ii) trade-offs between pricing and other (commonly used) mitigation instruments; and iii) why/to what extent needed policies and their impacts differ across countries. This paper provides an illustrative sense of this information for G20 member countries (which account for about 80 percent of global emissions) under plausible (though inevitably uncertain) projections for future fuel use and price responsiveness. Quantitative results underscore the generally strong case for (comprehensive) pricing over other instruments, its small net costs or often net benefits (when domestic environmental gains are considered), but also the potentially wide dispersion (and hence inefficiency) in emissions prices implied by countries’ mitigation commitments.
    Date: 2018–08–30
  14. By: Xu, Shang; Klaiber, Allen
    Keywords: Resource and Environmental Policy Analysis, Research Methods/Econometrics/Stats, International Development
    Date: 2018–06–20
  15. By: Siti Haslina Md Harizan (School of Distance Education, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Penang, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Author-2-Workplace-Name: Author-3-Name: Author-3-Workplace-Name: Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: Objective - This paper aims to explain the motivational drives underlying the use of solar energy and to examine the effectiveness of integrated marketing communication tools in the dissemination of solar PV information among household consumers in Malaysia. Methodology/Technique - Data was collected using in-depth interviews, participant observations, and on-site visits to participants' homes. Sixteen private household consumers who were registered with the Sustainable Energy Development Authority Malaysia (SEDA), and who were located in different regions of several states in Malaysia, were selected using purposive and snowball sampling. The data was then transcribed and analyzed by identifying the themes and commonalities of the respondents. Findings - The findings indicate that there are 4 motivating factors that lead to solar PV adoption. Those are: economic, societal well-being, environmental well-being, and knowledge/cognition. The integrated marketing communication tools found to be most effective include mass media (television), electronic media (including social media and websites) and interpersonal sources. Novelty - The study elaborates on the motivations underlying the adoption of solar energy based on the real experiences of solar PV users. The study also assesses the effectiveness of integrated marketing communication tools used by various stakeholders in promoting solar PV systems based on user feedback.
    Keywords: Integrated Marketing Communication; Motivation; Residential; Solar Photovoltaic System; Sustainable Marketing.
    JEL: M31 O33
    Date: 2018–09–16
  16. By: Simshauser, P., Akimov, A.; Akimov, A.
    Abstract: From 2004 to 2018 the Regulatory Asset Base (RAB) of electricity networks across Australia’s National Electricity Market tripled in value, from $32 billion to $93 billion. The run-up in the capital stock was driven by forecast demand growth and a tightening of reliability standards. But demand contracted from 2010-2015. With a rising RAB, contracting demand and a regulated revenue constraint, an adverse cycle of sharply rising tariffs and falling demand appeared to be emerging. Some networks were characterised by significant investment mistakes in retrospect, and perhaps unsurprisingly, various consumer groups and regulatory bodies argued assets should be stranded or written-off completely and network tariffs reduced. From 2015-2018, energy demand increased once again. In this article we present a method for dealing with stranded assets under uncertainty; rather than permanently stranding assets that fail a used and useful test, we reorganise the financial and economic affairs of a template network utility and “Park” excess capacity, issue credit-wrapped bonds to temporarily finance the stranded capital stock, then re-test the Parked Assets at the end of each five-year regulatory determination. Parked Assets can then be “Un-Parked” and returned-to-service in line with connections growth, load growth, or both. The most interesting result is the immediate reduction in network tariffs, and a more stable trajectory under our generalised assumptions.
    Keywords: Electricity Utilities, Falling Demand, Stranded Assets
    JEL: D4 L5 L9 Q4
    Date: 2018–09–17
  17. By: Capucine Nobletz
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between the real price of oil and the real effective exchange rate of the Canadian dollar. Using co-integration techniques, the results suggest that there is a stable long-run relationship between the series and a mean-reverting process of the Canadian exchange rate to its long-term target. In the short term, the change in the Canadian exchange rate is positively determined by its one-period lagged value and the change in the price of oil. Finally, using Granger causality tests, the results show that causality runs from exchange rate to oil price. An appreciation of the Canadian exchange rate results in an increase in the relative demand for oil - the price of oil produced in Canada being relatively more expensive - which in turn generates upward pressure on its price.
    Keywords: Oil, Exchange rate, Canada, Co-integration, Error correction model, Granger causality test
    JEL: C22 F31 Q43
    Date: 2018
  18. By: Lips, Johannes
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the relationship between debt and the production decision of companies active in the exploration and production of oil and gas in the United States. Over the last couple of years, the development and application of innovative extraction methods, like hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, led to a considerable increase in United States (US) oil production. In connection with these technological changes, another important economic development in the oil industry was largely debt-driven investment in the oil sector. The extensive use of debt was fostered by the macroeconomic environment of low interest rates and investors searching for yield in the aftermath of the financial crisis. Additionally, the rising prices in the commodities markets until mid 2014 led to higher asset valuation and thus to higher return expectations fueling a virtuous circle. This increased investment activity, especially in the US, raised the production capacity and as a consequence contributed to a higher production of oil and natural gas. This trend continued in spite of the oil price decline in 2014, whereas the oil price slump in 2008 led to a reduction in oil production, which seems to be the more plausible reaction. The aim of this paper can be split into two research questions. The first research question is whether debt and leverage affects production decisions of companies active in the exploration and production (E&P) of crude oil and natural gas. The second research question then is, if the technological changes in the industry and the increased indebtedness of US oil companies led to a markedly different reaction in their production decision following 2014 compared to the similar price decline in 2008. A potential reason for the absence or delay in cutting back production after the price drop in 2014 could be supposedly higher levels of debt prior to the price decline. These questions are addressed applying the relatively new panel vector autoregressive (VAR) approach to a novel dataset combining financial data on publicly listed firms and their production data on well level.
    Keywords: Corporate Finance,Oil Industry,Debt,Leverage,PanelVAR,Dynamic Panel Data,Energy Economics
    JEL: C33 C58 G01 G31 Q40 C33 C58 G01 G31 Q40
    Date: 2018
  19. By: Ian Parry; Dirk Heine; Kelley Kizzier; Tristan Smith
    Abstract: The International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced in April 2018 a target of cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the sector by 50 percent below 2008 levels by 2050 and subsequent meetings of the IMO will develop a strategy for making headway on this commitment. This paper seeks to inform dialogue about the possibility of a carbon tax as a key element of GHG mitigation policy for international maritime transport. The paper discusses the case for the tax over alternative mitigation instruments, options for the practical design issues, and then presents estimates of the impacts of carbon taxation and other instruments from an analytical model of the maritime sector.
    Date: 2018–09–11
  20. By: Vladimir Udalov (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))
    Abstract: This paper investigates an intergenerational conflict arising from renewable energy support. Using a politico-economic overlapping generations (OLG) model, it can be shown that older individuals unambiguously lose from renewable energy support and therefore vote to keep it at a minimum level. In contrast, younger individuals face ambiguous effects arising from renewable energy support. In the short run, they also lose from a negative consumption effect. In the long run, however, younger individuals benefit from a positive environmental effect. Renewable energy support also generates both positive and negative effects on consumption. The voting outcome is determined through a political process, whereby political parties converge to platforms that maximize the aggregate welfare of the electorate. Zusammenfassung: Dieses Papier untersucht einen Generationenkonflikt, der aufgrund der Förderung erneuerbarer Energien entsteht. Unter Verwendung eines einfachen polit-ökonomischen Modells sich überlappender Generationen kann gezeigt werden, dass die älteren Individuen durch die Förderung erneuerbarer Energien eindeutig schlechter gestellt werden und deshalb für ein minimales Niveau der Förderung stimmen. Im Gegensatz dazu sind die jungen Individuen mit einem nicht eindeutigen Effekt konfrontiert. In der kurzen Frist werden sie durch die Förderung erneuerbarer Energien genauso wie die älteren Individuen schlechter gestellt werden. Allerdings profitieren sie in der langen Frist von einem positiven Umwelteffekt und stehen unter bestimmten Bedingungen auch einem positiven Konsumeffekt gegenüber. Aus diesem Grund wählen sie ein höheres Niveau der Förderung. Das Abstimmungsergebnis wird im Rahmen eines politischen Prozesses bestimmt, wobei die politischen Parteien zu einer Plattform konvergieren, die aggregierte Wohlfahrt der Wählerschaft maximiert.
    Keywords: overlapping generations, generational conflict, environmental policy, renewable energy, voting
    JEL: Q54 Q29 D60 D90 H23 D72
    Date: 2018–06
  21. By: Gabriel Gomes (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Emmanuel Hache (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles); Valerie Mignon (CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Anthony Paris (EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)
    Abstract: Many developed countries promote the use of biofuels for environmental concerns, leading to a rise in the price of agricultural commodities utilized in their production. Such environmental policies have major effects on the economy of emerging and developing countries whose activity is highly dependent on agricultural commodities involved in biofuel production. This paper tackles this issue by examining the price impact of biofuels on the current account for a panel of 16 developing and emerging countries, and the potential nonlinear effect exerted by the price of oil on this relationship. Relying on the estimation of panel smooth-transition regression models, we show that positive shocks in the price of biofuels lead to a current-account improvement for agricultural commodity exporters (resp. producers) only when the price of oil is below 45 (resp. 56) US dollars per barrel. When the price of oil exceeds these thresholds, the effect of fluctuations in the price of biofuels on the current account tends to weaken and become non significant. Under these conditions, our findings indicate that, for agricultural commodity exporters which are also oil importers, the current account is pulled by two opposite forces, making its overall reaction modest or even nil. JEL Classification: Q16; Q43; F32; C23.. We would like to thank Cécile Couharde, Anne-Laure Delatte and Sébastien Jean for helpful comments and suggestions.
    Keywords: Biofuels,Oil,Current account,Panel smooth transition regression *
    Date: 2018–05
  22. By: Anthony Garratt; Shaun P. Vahey; Ynuyi Zhang
    Abstract: Baumeister and Kilian (2015) combine forecasts from six empirical models to predict real oil prices. In this paper, we broadly reproduce their main economic findings, employing their preferred measures of the real oil price and other real-time variables. Mindful of the importance of Brent crude oil as a global price benchmark, we extend consideration to the North Sea based measure and update the evaluation sample to 2017:12. We model the oil price futures curve using a factor-based Nelson-Siegel specification estimated in real time to fill in missing values for oil price futures in the raw data. We find that the combined forecasts for Brent are as effective as for other oil price measures. The extended sample using the oil price measures adopted by Baumeister and Kilian (2015) yields similar results to those reported in their paper. And the futures-based model improves forecast accuracy at longer horizons. The real-time data set is available for download from st-combinations-oil-price
    Keywords: Real oil price forecasting, Brent crude oil, Forecast combination
    JEL: C01 C32 C53
    Date: 2018–10
  23. By: Myriam Linster (OECD); Chan Yang (OECD)
    Abstract: This report illustrates China’s progress towards green growth from an international perspective, with focus on industry and the interplay between industrial development and environment. It starts with depicting the structural shifts that the Chinese economy, in particular its industry, has undergone since the early 1990s. It briefly discusses the driving forces behind China’s emergence as global manufacturing powerhouse, and the environmental implications of this rapid phase of industrialisation. It also assesses China’s position vis-à-vis green growth using the OECD green growth measurement framework and indicators. The findings suggest that China has made great strides towards improving the environmental and resource productivity of its economy, but more opportunities can be exploited for greater efficiency gains that are vital to the shift to a low carbon, resource efficient and competitive economy. They also indicate that the policies in place, though showing first results, remain insufficient to cope with increasing environmental pressures and with historical and cumulated pollution loads. Further progress will largely depend on the country’s capacity to integrate environmental aspects into decision-making in all policies and sectors, and at all levels, and ensure that industrial and environmental policy objectives and measures are well aligned and mutually supportive.
    Date: 2018–10–19
  24. By: Behnert, Marika; Bruckner, Thomas
    Keywords: direct-current load flow model,security-constrained unit commitment,mixed-integer linear programming,energy system model,storage facility optimization,grid stability
    Date: 2018
  25. By: Bütikofer, Aline (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Dalla-Zuanna, Antonio (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Salvanes, Kjell G. (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)
    Abstract: Do large economic shocks increase intergenerational earnings mobility through creating new economic opportunities? Alternatively, do they reduce mobility by reinforcing the links between generations? In this paper, we estimate how the Norwegian oil boom starting in the 1970s affected intergenerational mobility. We find that this resource shock increased intergenerational mobility for cohorts entering the labor market at the beginning of the oil boom in those labor markets most affected by the growing oil industry. In particular, we show that individuals born to poor families in oil-affected regions were more likely to move to the top of their cohort's earnings distribution. Importantly, we reveal that preexisting local differences in intergenerational mobility did not drive these findings. Instead, we show that changes in the returns to education offer the best explanation for geographic differences in intergenerational mobility following the oil boom. In addition, we find that intergenerational mobility was significantly higher in oil-affected labor markets across three generations and that the oil boom broke the earnings link between grandfathers and their grandsons.
    Keywords: Natural Resource Booms; International mobility
    JEL: J62
    Date: 2018–09–06
  26. By: Ravshonbek Otojanov
    Abstract: This paper provides an alternative view on the transition from stagnation to growth by building a two-sector model of the British Industrial Revolution. The sectors differ only in the use of input factors, wood and coal. The model characterises the transition from stagnation to high growth as a direct consequence of the transition from biomass to coal use in Britain. Formalising the accounts of economic historians, technological progress is modelled as an endogenous process driven by the cost differentials between wood and coal. As wood price rises and coal price remains stable it becomes profitable to innovate in coal-using technologies and hence, innovation shifts to the coal-using sector. The model is calibrated to match the main features of the British economy in the transition period between 1550 and 1849. The model reproduces one of the important characteristics of the First Industrial Revolution – transition from low growth to high growth. Counterfactual analyses indicate that, absent coal reserves and low cost coal supplies, growth would have been slower and income per capita would have been 53% of that observed in 1849. Also, the model does a good job in explaining the timing of structural transformations in the British economy.
    Keywords: Industrial Revolution; Economic Growth; Directed Technical Change; Innovation; Energy Transitions.
    JEL: O30 O41 Q43 D50
  27. By: De Groote, Olivier; Verboven, Frank
    Abstract: We study a generous program to promote the adoption of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems through subsidies on future electricity production, rather than through upfront investment subsidies. We develop a tractable dynamic model of new technology adoption, also accounting for local market heterogeneity. We identify the discount factor from demand responses to variation that shifts expected future but not current utilities. Despite the massive adoption, we find that households significantly discounted the future benefits from the new technology. This implies that an upfront investment subsidy program would have promoted the technology at a much lower budgetary cost.
    JEL: C51 Q48 Q58
    Date: 2018–09
  28. By: Ziegler, Andreas
    Abstract: Based on data from a large-scale computer-based survey among more than 3700 German citizens, this paper empirically examines the determinants of the general change of electricity tariffs and the specific change to green tariffs. Our econometric analysis with binary probit and multinomial logit models reveals a strong relevance of behavioral factors and individual values. For example, patience (which is measured by an incentivized experiment that was included in the survey) is significantly positively correlated with general changes to alternative electricity tariffs. Furthermore, social preferences (also measured by an incentivized experiment) and trust have an even stronger significantly positive effect on the specific change to green electricity tariffs. Our estimation results also imply an important role of political identification, i.e. citizens with a left-wing orientation significantly more often switch an electricity tariff and an ecological political orientation has a strong significantly positive effect on the change to a green electricity tariff. Furthermore, several socio-demographic and socio-economic variables like age, gender, or household income are also relevant. The empirical analysis thus provides new explanation patterns for the phenome-non that only a small number of households regularly change their electricity tariff and specifically to green tariffs, although they have high stated preferences for such changes. Our insights suggest several directions for policy, but also for electricity providers, to in-crease these switching rates. For example, the high importance of trust attitudes for the change to green electricity tariffs suggests a transparency initiative of electricity providers to decrease reservations against green power.
    Keywords: Switching electricity tariffs,green electricity,heterogeneous preferences,behavioral factors,artefactual field experiment,individual values,econometric analysis
    JEL: C93 D12 Q41 Q42 Q50
    Date: 2018
  29. By: Langinier, Corinne (University of Alberta, Department of Economics); Ray Chaudhuri, Amrita (University of Winnipeg)
    Abstract: We develop a theoretical framework to investigate the impact of patent policies and emission taxes on green innovation that reduces the emission output ratio, and on the emission level. In the absence of green consumers, the introduction of patents results in a paradox whereby increasing emission tax beyond a certain threshold leads to a discrete increase in the emission level, which may be avoided by reducing the patenting cost. In the presence of green consumers, this paradox is restricted to an intermediate range of tax rates, and at sufficiently high tax rates, reducing the patenting cost may increase the emission level. Also, higher emission taxes increase green investment only if the fraction of green consumers is sufficiently small, and the magnitude of this effect decreases as this fraction increases. Moreover, a stricter patentability requirement is only effective at reducing emissions if the fraction of green consumers is sufficiently small.
    Keywords: Patent; Clean Technologies; Environmentally Friendly Consumers; Rebound Effect
    JEL: L13 O34 Q50
    Date: 2018–10–18
  30. By: Grout, Travis; Ifft, Jennifer E.
    Keywords: Ag Finance and Farm Management, Production Economics, Resource and Environmental Policy Analysis
    Date: 2018–06–20
  31. By: Amin, Modhurima D.; Badruddoza, Syed
    Keywords: Natural Resource Economics, Resource and Environmental Policy Analysis, Environmental and Nonmarket Valuation
    Date: 2018–06–20
  32. By: Rijal, Binish; Khanna, Neha
    Keywords: Resource and Environmental Policy Analysis, Behavioral & Institutional Economics, Research Methods/Econometrics/Stats
    Date: 2018–06–20
  33. By: Huseynov, Samir; Palma, Marco A.
    Keywords: Industrial Org./Supply Chain Management, Resource and Environmental Policy Analysis, Research Methods/Econometrics/Stats
    Date: 2018–06–20
  34. By: Jamal Bouoiyour (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Refk Selmi (CATT - Centre d'Analyse Théorique et de Traitement des données économiques - UPPA - Université de Pau et des Pays de l'Adour); Muhammad Shahbaz (GATECH - College of Computing - Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech))
    Abstract: The core focus of this paper is to assess the relationship between the electricity consumption and institutions within rentierism phenomenon by incorporating economic growth, urbanization, trade openness and foreign direct investment in the case of Algeria. To this end, we have applied the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration and innovative accounting approach (variance decomposition and impulse response methods) over the period of 1971-2012. Our empirical results show that these variables are cointegrated in the long-run. We find that institutions play an important role to explain this cointegration. The response of electricity demand is increasingly negative due to the one standard deviation shock in institutions. This highlights an insightful evidence, providing that the poor governance drawbacks in a rentier state may affect directly electricity consumption or indirectly via urbanization and foreign direct investment. The contribution of economic growth to electricity consumption appears minor (the conservation hypothesis is limitedly supported), while that of trade openness seems insignificant.
    Keywords: Electricity consumption,Institutions,Rentier state
    Date: 2018–09–24
  35. By: Zietara, Wojciech; Zielinski, Marek
    Abstract: The paper aims, above all, at assessment of the effects of allocating straw surplus from the Polish agriculture to energy purposes or as a source of additional organic matter in the soil. Consequently, the authors discuss the issue of significance of straw as an alternative energy source and draw attention to the role of organic matter in improving the production potential of soils and carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration. Additionally, the paper analyses economic effects and development possibilities of farms having non-negative balance of CO2 sequestration at the backdrop other farms. The study used literature data from 2,069 farms specialising in cereal, oilseed crop and high protein crop farming and running accountancy for the Polish FADN in 2015.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy
    Date: 2018
  36. By: Ravshonbek Otojanov and Roger Fouquet
    Abstract: Allen (2009) has argued that the divergence in factor prices determined the direction of technical change that altered the course of economic growth in Britain. Using historical data for the 1700 – 1914 period, this paper derives and analyses the nature and direction of technical change. The results show that technical change was biased during the Industrial Revolution and that the bias stemmed from the divergence in the cost of labour and energy. In particular, labour saving responded strongly to the acceleration in wage growth in the 1850-1914 period. Overall, technical change was labour-saving, energy-using and hence capital-deepening. Moreover, the evidence shows that the expansion of effective energy supply allowed British economy to sustain output growth in the First Industrial Revolution era. Labour-saving innovations were particularly crucial in the Second Industrial Revolution.
    Keywords: Industrial Revolution; Factor-Saving Technical Change; Induced Technical Change, Productivity, Innovation.
    JEL: N13 O3 O11
  37. By: Wu, Tingting; Thomassin, Paul J.
    Keywords: Resource and Environmental Policy Analysis, Food and Agricultural Policy Analysis, Environmental and Nonmarket Valuation
    Date: 2018–06–20
  38. By: Keeler, Zachary T.; Stephens, Heather
    Keywords: Environmental and Nonmarket Valuation, Rural/Community Development, Resource and Environmental Policy Analysis
    Date: 2018–06–20
  39. By: Khadka Mishra, Shruti; Zhu, Minjia
    Keywords: Environmental and Nonmarket Valuation, Natural Resource Economics, Resource and Environmental Policy Analysis
    Date: 2018–06–20
  40. By: Lade, Gabriel; Rudik, Ivan
    Keywords: Resource and Environmental Policy Analysis, Environmental and Nonmarket Valuation, Production Economics
    Date: 2018–06–20
  41. By: Committee, Nobel Prize (Nobel Prize Committee)
    Abstract: This year's prize rewards the design of models and methods to address some of the most fundamental and pressing questions of our time, involving the long-run development of the global economy and the welfare of its citizens. Paul M. Romer has given us new tools for understanding how long-run technological change is determined in a market economy, while William D. Nordhaus has pioneered a framework for understanding how the economy and climate of our planet are mutually dependent on each other. In his focus on the fundamental endogeneity of technological change, Romer has emphasized how the economy can expand the boundaries - and thus the possibilities - of its future activities. In his focus on the fundamental challenges of climate change, Nordhaus has stressed important negative side effects - and thus the restrictions - of the endeavors to bring about future prosperity. Both Romer and Nordhaus emphasize that the market economy, while a powerful engine of human development, has important imperfections and their contributions have thus offered insights into how government policy could potentially enhance our long-run welfare.
    Keywords: long-term growth;
    JEL: O00
    Date: 2018–10–08

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