|
on Energy Economics |
| By: | Richard S.J. Tol (Department of Economics, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK; Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam; CESifo, Munich; Payne Institute for Earth Resources, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, Colorado) |
| Abstract: | Carbon dioxide emissions have grown less fast than the economy because of improvements in energy efficiency. Switching to less carbon-intensive fuels and climate policy have played a minor role. Scenarios of future emissions are optimistic about economic growth and energy efficiency, and the higher scenarios assume resurgent coal use at odds with current trends. Climate policy is cheap for moderate targets and smart implementation. Costs are much higher for more realistic policies and for more stringent targets. The negative emission required by the Paris Agreement would need large subsidies. Greenhouse gas emission reduction is a global public good that is hard to provide. Key players in the climate debate benefit from the rents created by inefficient policies, from causing confusion, and from mixing climate with other matters. |
| Keywords: | climate change, energy, climate policy |
| JEL: | Q42 Q48 Q54 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:1618&r=ene |
| By: | Bertsch, Valentin; Di Cosmo, Valeria |
| Abstract: | The European Union has set ambitious targets for emission reduction and the penetration of renewable energy, including the electricity generation sector as one of the major emitters of CO2. After a period of subsidy-driven investments, the costs of renewables decreased strongly making investments more attractive. Since European countries differ strongly in terms of natural resources, we analyse the profitability of wind onshore and offshore and solar PV across Europe to determine where it is optimal to invest in the future and to understand which factors drive the profitability of the investments. We use a power systems model to simulate the whole European electricity market in 2030. Using the renewable revenues determined by the model, we calculate the internal rate of return to analyse how profitable each technology is in each country. We find that investments in the considered technologies are not homogeneously profitable across Europe. This suggests that cooperation between European countries can be expected to achieve the overall targets at lower costs than nationally-driven approaches. We also find that in many countries, wind onshore and solar PV are profitable by 2030 in absence of any financial support. Wind offshore does not seem to be profitable without financial support. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2018–08–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemes:276178&r=ene |
| By: | Ben Gilbert (Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines); Gavin Roberts (Department of Economics, Weber State University) |
| Abstract: | Previous analyses of relationships between crude oil and natural gas markets focused primarily on demand-side connections. We provide a model and empirical evidence of important supply-side connections. First, crude oil and natural gas production require common inputs: drilling rigs, well completion services, and specialized labor. Competition for these inputs creates a \emph{cost-spillover} channel through which a price shock for one commodity reduces supply of the other commodity. Second, crude oil wells produce associated gas, while natural gas wells often produce associated liquid hydrocarbons. This creates an \emph{associated-commodity} channel through which a price shock for one commodity will increase supply of the other. Which effect dominates depends on the characteristics of the producing region. We test the model using well-level data from five large oil and gas producing basins in Texas and Oklahoma. We find substantial evidence across all five basins of a cost-spillover channel between natural gas prices and oil drilling, but mixed evidence of an associated-commodity channel between oil prices and natural gas drilling. Finally, we discuss the implications of these supply-side connections for energy policy. |
| Keywords: | Energy, Petroleum, Crude Oil, Natural Gas |
| JEL: | D72 F18 F59 Q56 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mns:wpaper:wp201804&r=ene |
| By: | Karakaya, Etem; Yılmaz, Burcu; Alataş, Sedat |
| Abstract: | Much of the existing research analyses on emissions and climate policy are dominantly based on emissions data provided by production-based accounting (PBA) system. However, PBA provides an incomplete picture of driving forces behind these emission changes and impact of global trade on emissions, simply by neglecting the environmental impacts of consumption. To remedy this problem, it is proposed to calculate national emissions based on consumption-based accounting (CBA) system. In this article we question the relevance of PBA’s dominance. To this end, we, firstly, try to assess and compare PBA with CBA adopted in greenhouse gas emissions accounting systems in climate change debates on several issues and to discuss the policy implications of the choice of approach. Secondly, we investigate the convergence patterns in production-based and consumption-based carbon emissions in 35 Annex-B countries for the period between 1990 and 2015. This study, for the first time, puts all these arguments together and discusses possible outcomes of convergence analysis by employing both the production and consumption based CO2 per capita emissions data. The empirical results found some important conclusions which challenge most of the existing CO2 convergence studies. |
| Keywords: | Consumption Based Accounting, CO2 emissions Convergence, Climate Policy, emissions and Trade, Annex B Countries |
| JEL: | F18 O1 Q56 Q58 |
| Date: | 2018–06–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:88781&r=ene |
| By: | Rick van der Ploeg; Armon Rezai |
| Abstract: | Unanticipated climate policy curbs the value of physical capital that is costly to adjust. We illustrate this by showing that climate policy to keep peak global warming below 2°C depresses the share prices of oil and gas majors and their market capitalisation, curbs exploration investment and oil and gas discoveries, boosts proven reserves left abandoned in the crust of the earth, cuts exploitation investment, and induces an earlier onset of the carbon-free era. For a given carbon budget, an immediate carbon tax is the first-best response but delaying the carbon tax or a renewable energy subsidy to meet the same temperature target are preferred by shareholders because they introduce Green Paradox effects and protect the profitability of existing capital. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure; climate policy, fossil fuel, exploration investment, discoveries, exploitation investment, stranded carbon assets, stock prices, irreversible capital, adjustment costs |
| JEL: | D20 D53 D92 G11 H32 Q02 Q38 Q54 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:oxcrwp:206&r=ene |
| By: | Fabian Feger; Doina Radulescu |
| Abstract: | Many OECD countries such as the USA, the UK or Switzerland are concerned with the affordability of utility services and the distributional consequences inherent in the pricing strategy of basic goods and services, such as electricity. However, the effectiveness of the electricity tariff as a redistribution device is questionable in the presence of a progressive income tax schedule. To shed light on this controversy, we structurally estimate a model that combines public utility pricing and income taxation. We employ a large panel data set on about 105,000 households in the Swiss Canton of Bern from 2008 to 2013, including detailed energy consumption and household income and tax payment characteristics. While the theoretical model predicts that electricity prices should be subsidised in the presence of purely income redistribution concerns, we find a positive mark-up of 49%, in our data. This suggests that, in practice, the government is concerned with energy conservation as well as income redistribution. |
| Keywords: | redistribution, public utility pricing, energy, asymmetric information |
| JEL: | D12 D31 H21 H23 H24 L94 L98 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7195&r=ene |
| By: | Caron, Justin; Fally, Thibault |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of income-driven differences in consumption patterns in explaining and projecting energy demand and CO2 emissions. We develop and estimate a general-equilibrium model with non-homothetic preferences across a large set of countries and sectors, and trace embodied energy consumption through intermediate use and trade linkages. Consumption of energy goods is less than proportional to income in rich countries, and more income-elastic in low-income countries. While income effects are weaker for embodied energy, we find a significant negative relationship between income elasticity and CO2 intensity across all goods. These income-driven differences in consumption choices can partially explain the observed inverted-U relationship between income and emissions across countries, the so-called environmental Kuznet curve. Relative to standard models with homothetic preferences, simulations suggest that income growth leads to lower emissions in high-income countries and higher emissions in some low-income countries, with only modest reductions in world emissions on aggregate. |
| Keywords: | CO2 content of consumption; consumption patterns; emissions projections; non-homothetic preferences |
| JEL: | F18 O10 Q47 Q56 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13092&r=ene |
| By: | Justin Caron; Thibault Fally |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role of income-driven differences in consumption patterns in explaining and projecting energy demand and CO 2 emissions. We develop and estimate a general-equilibrium model with non-homothetic preferences across a large set of countries and sectors, and trace embodied energy consumption through intermediate use and trade linkages. Consumption of energy goods is less than proportional to income in rich countries, and more income-elastic in low-income countries. While income effects are weaker for embodied energy, we find a significant negative relationship between income elasticity and CO 2 intensity across all goods. These income-driven differences in consumption choices can partially explain the observed inverted-U relationship between income and emissions across countries, the so-called environmental Kuznet curve. Relative to standard models with homothetic preferences, simulations suggest that income growth leads to lower emissions in high-income countries and higher emissions in some low-income countries, with only modest reductions in world emissions on aggregate. |
| JEL: | F18 O10 Q47 Q56 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24923&r=ene |
| By: | Ashwin K Seshadri |
| Abstract: | Large-scale extraction of carbon dioxide (CO2) from Earth's atmosphere ("negative emissions") is important for stringent climate change mitigation scenarios, and we examine optimal (i.e. least-cost) pathways of negative emissions in the presence of learning by doing ("endogenous learning"). Optimal pathways solve a variational problem involving minimization of discounted costs subject to a constraint on total negative emissions across time. A minimum pathway exists if the marginal cost curve of negative emissions is increasing with annual rate of emissions reduction. In the absence of endogenous learning, the optimal pathway has annual negative emissions increasing with time: with more rapid increase in emissions rate occurring in case of large discount rate and slower increase of the cost curve. Endogenous learning can have contrary effects depending on how it is included in models. This paper identifies a basic distinction, between additive and multiplicative effects on marginal costs of endogenous learning, which governs its qualitative effects in such models. If endogenous learning is best modeled as a negative addition to the cost function, shifting the cost curve downward, the optimal pathway has higher emissions rate early on when compared to the no-learning case, however with emissions increasing with time. In contrast if endogenous learning is a multiplicative effect, scaling down marginal cost uniformly, then benefits of learning are slowly manifest as marginal cost rises and the optimal pathway begins at lower emissions rates that increase more rapidly as compared to if endogenous learning were absent. |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1808.08717&r=ene |
| By: | Fabra, Natalia |
| Abstract: | I build a simple model to capture the key drivers of investment and pricing incentives in electricity markets. The focus is put on the interaction between market power and investment incentives, and the trade-off it introduces when designing the optimal regulatory instruments. In contrast to the energy-only market paradigm that assumes perfect competition, my model demonstrates that in the presence of market power scarcity prices do not promote efficient investments, even among risk-neutral investors. Combining price caps and capacity payments allows to disentangle the two-fold objective of inducing the right investment incentives while mitigating market power. Bundling capacity payments with financial obligations further mitigate market power as long as strike prices are set sufficiently close to marginal costs. |
| Keywords: | capacity markets; market power; reliability options; scarcity pricing |
| JEL: | L13 L51 L94 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13088&r=ene |
| By: | Comello, Stephen (Stanford University); Reichelstein, Stefan J. (Stanford University) |
| Abstract: | We introduce and validate a measure of the Levelized Cost of Electricity Storage (LCOES). On a per kWh basis, this metric captures the economic break-even price required to charge and discharge electricity in N cycles per year, subject to the maximum power (dis)charge not exceeding the power rating of the storage system at any point in time. LCOES is shown to be instrumental in characterizing the optimal size of a battery that balances the initial investment expenditure with periodic savings from storing, and subsequently consuming, self-generated energy. We apply the model to residential solar customers in Germany and California, two jurisdictions with markedly different electricity pricing rules and policy support mechanisms for the adoption of battery storage. |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3696&r=ene |
| By: | Gilbert, Christopher L.; Mugera, Harriet K. |
| Abstract: | There is evidence that the use of corn as a biofuels feedstock has increased the crude oil pass-through to the corn price. Changes in US biofuels policy can be seen as initially increasing and subsequently retarding the use of corn in ethanol production. Because the policy both mandates but also limits this use, different regimes can prevail depending on which constraints are binding. Structural break methods show that the pass-through was important over the four years 2003-07 but has subsequently been much more limited. Competitive storage theory continues to explain much of the price movement even over those four years. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Crop Production/Industries |
| Date: | 2017–04–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aesc17:258646&r=ene |
| By: | Bartosz Uniejewski; Grzegorz Marcjasz; Rafal Weron |
| Abstract: | Using a unique set of prices from the German EPEX market we take a closer look at the fine structure of intraday markets for electricity with its continuous trading for individual load periods up to 30 minutes before delivery. We apply the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to gain statistically sound insights on variable selection and provide recommendations for very short-term electricity price forecasting. |
| Keywords: | Intraday electricity market; Variable selection; Price forecasting; LASSO |
| JEL: | C14 C22 C51 C53 Q47 |
| Date: | 2018–08–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1807&r=ene |
| By: | Abdisa, Lamessa Tariku |
| Abstract: | The unreliable supply of electricity is the main constraints to doing business in Ethiopia. This paper examined how firms in Ethiopia respond to power outage employing the World Bank Enterprise Survey data. The result shows that, in response to power outages, firms in Ethiopia self-generate electricity. While there is no evidence suggesting outsourcing and improved energy hypothesis, power outages were found to affect the firms’ productivity negatively. From 2011 to 2015 firms’ cost of production rose by 15% due to the power outage. This effect varies positively with output level suggesting that outage is costly particularly for large firms. |
| Keywords: | Power Outages, Firm, Self Generation, Ethiopia |
| JEL: | L6 L81 N77 Q41 |
| Date: | 2018–02–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:88217&r=ene |
| By: | Ben Gilbert (Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines); Joshua S. Graff Zivin (Department of Economics, University of California, San Diego and NBER) |
| Abstract: | The intermittency of payment for many goods creates a disconnect between paying and consuming such that the marginal price is not always salient when consumption decisions are made. This paper derives optimal dynamic corrective taxes when there are externalities as well as internalities from inattention and persistence in consumption across periods. Our optimal taxes address dynamic inefficiencies that are not captured in static models of inattention. We also characterize a second-best constant tax and the excess burden associated with time-invariant tax rates. We then calibrate the model to U.S. residential electricity consumption. |
| Keywords: | Salience, Inattention, Optimal Taxes, Energy Demand, Consumption Persistence |
| JEL: | D03 D11 D62 D91 H21 H23 L97 Q40 Q41 Q50 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mns:wpaper:wp201805&r=ene |
| By: | Muhammad Irfan (University of Waikato); Michael P. Cameron (University of Waikato); Gazi Hassan (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine the relationship between biomass fuel consumption and measures of life expectancy and infant and child mortality. We hypothesize that solid fuel consumption at the country-level causes higher infant and child mortality, and lower male and female life expectancy at birth. Importantly our empirical strategy, using 13 years of cross-country panel data covering 101 countries at all levels of development over the period 2000-2012, allows us to obtain the causal impacts of solid fuel use on health outcomes. To obtain causal estimates, we use as instruments the proportion of the land area that is forested, and the total quantities of country-level oil and gas production. All three instruments are strong and plausibly exogenous to the determination of mortality at the country level. In our preferred instrumental variable specification, we find that solid fuel combustion causes increases in child mortality and decreases in male and female life expectancy. Our findings have important policy implications and suggest that governments, particularly of developing and middle-income countries, should focus efforts to reduce solid fuel use and encourage cleaner fuel use, in order to improve the health and well-being of their populations. |
| Keywords: | solid fuels; indoor air pollution; child mortality; life expectancy |
| JEL: | I15 Q53 O13 |
| Date: | 2018–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:18/11&r=ene |
| By: | Haroon Mumtaz (Queen Mary University of London); Ahmed Pirzada (University of Bristol); Konstantinos Theodoridis (Cardiff Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a panel Threshold VAR model to estimate the regime-dependent impact of oil shocks on stock prices. We find that an adverse oil supply shock has a negative effect on stock prices when oil inflation is low. In contrast, this impact is negligible in the regime characterised by higher oil price inflation. Using a simple DSGE model, we suggest that the explanation for this result may be tied to the behaviour of credit spreads. When oil inflation is low, lower policy rates encourage firms to get highly leveraged. A negative oil shock in this scenario leads to a substantial increase in spreads, reducing profits and equity prices. In contrast, at higher rates of inflation, spreads are less affected by the oil shock, ameliorating the impact on the stock market. |
| Keywords: | Threshold VAR, Hierarchical Prior, DSGE model, Oil shocks |
| Date: | 2018–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:865&r=ene |
| By: | Grimoux, Valentin |
| Abstract: | This research provides a grasp of China’s energy needs and their implications for SSA countries in order to give a balanced and better understanding of its role on the continent. More specifically, the aim is to understand why and how China is involved in the SSA energy sector and what are the benefits and the costs of its engagement. On the one hand, a clearer knowledge of how the Chinese investment system works will help to assess the scope of the Chinese strategy and the role of the government for the set of actors that are committed in Africa. On the other hand, by digging deeper into Chinese energy projects in Africa, one will be able to appreciate to what extent this relationship can be considered a win-win, whereby each party is equally benefitting from cooperation by ensuring the smooth development of the African and Chinese economies. |
| Keywords: | Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2018–08–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:feemes:276177&r=ene |
| By: | Kilian, Lutz; Zhou, Xiaoqing |
| Abstract: | Recently, Baumeister and Hamilton (henceforth: BH) have argued that existing studies of the global oil market fail to account for uncertainty about their identifying assumptions. They recommend an alternative econometric approach intended to address this concern by formulating priors on the structural model parameters. We demonstrate that in practice BH are unable to parameterize identification uncertainty without falling back on ad hoc prior specifications. They are also unable to show that earlier studies did not impose all relevant identifying information. In fact, to the extent that BH's substantive conclusions differ from earlier studies, these differences do not reflect their use of a superior econometric methodology, but mainly the imposition of a highly unrealistic prior for the global impact price elasticity of oil supply. Once identification uncertainty about the global price elasticity of oil supply is accounted for by specifying a prior more in line with extraneous evidence and economic theory, the substantive results of earlier oil market studies are reaffirmed. We also refute BH's claim that existing oil market studies are invalid or not robust. Finally, we explain why the BH method is not a generalization of all existing methods. It is, in fact, not designed to be applied to state-or-the-art oil market models because key assumptions of the proposed approach are not met in these models. |
| Keywords: | Oil market models; oil supply elasticity; structural VAR. identification |
| JEL: | C32 E32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13068&r=ene |
| By: | Akinsola, Foluso A.; Odhiambo, Nicholas M. |
| Abstract: | The mad rush for rapid economic growth led by industrialization in emerging economies is having a negative impact on ecological management. Rapid economic growth and expansion of economic activities in most developed countries have resulted in acceleration of global warming and climate change. The direction of causality between carbon emission and economic growth varies from one country to the other depending on the data set and methodology employed by the researcher. In this paper, we examine the causal relationship between carbon emission and economic growth in five selected countries namely China, United States, Russia, India, and Japan. These countries are selected because they are the largest carbon emitters in the world. The study used two types of unit root test technique Levin-Lin-Chu (LLC) and Im-Pesaran-Shin (IPS) unit-root tests to ascertain the order of integration. Johansen Fisher Panel cointegration techniques and Pairwise Dumitrescu Hurlin Panel Causality Tests were applied to determine the existence of a long run relationship causal relationship between carbon emission and economic growth. Using panel cointegration approach, Fully Modified OLS and panel granger causality test, we found that there is a unidirectional causal flow from carbon emission to economic growth in most of the largest carbon emitters in the world in the long run. Therefore, the five most significant carbon emitters need to strengthen their carbon management and efficiency policies to avoid further environmental damages associated with rapid economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Emission, Economic Growth, Panel Cointegration Test |
| Date: | 2018–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uza:wpaper:24787&r=ene |
| By: | Sina Aghaei; Amirreza Safari Langroudi; Masoud Fekri |
| Abstract: | In recent years, there have been a lot of sharp changes in the oil price. These rapid changes cause the traditional models to fail in predicting the price behavior. The main reason for the failure of the traditional models is that they consider the actual value of parameters instead of their expectational ones. In this paper, we propose a system dynamics model that incorporates expectational variables in determining the oil price. In our model, the oil price is determined by the expected demand and supply vs. their actual values. Our core model is based upon regression analysis on several historic time series and adjusted by adding many casual loops in the oil market. The proposed model in simulated in different scenarios that have happened in the past and our results comply with the trends of the oil price in each of the scenarios. |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1808.04150&r=ene |
| By: | Franz Hamann (Banco de la República); Enrique Mendoza (University of Pennsylvania); Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria (Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we document the stylized facts about the relationship between international oil price swings, sovereign risk and macroeconomic performance of oil-exporting economies. We show that even though being a bigger oil producer decreases sovereign risk–because it increases a country’s ability to repay–having more oil reserves increases sovereign risk by making autarky more attractive. We develop a small open economy model of sovereign risk with incomplete international financial markets, in which optimal oil extraction and sovereign default interact. We use the model to understand the mechanisms behind the empirical facts. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed018:1235&r=ene |
| By: | Blaudin de Thé, Camille; Carantino, Benjamin; Lafourcade, Miren |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of urban form on households' fuel consumption and car emissions in France. We analyze more particularly three features of cities commonly referred to as the `three D's' (Cervero and Kockelman, 1997): Density, Design and an innovative measure of Diversity. Individual data allow us to circumvent selection issues, as some households may live in a location consonant to their socioeconomic characteristics or travel predispositions, while instrumental variables help control for other endogeneity issues. The results suggest that, by choosing to live at the fringe of a metropolitan area instead of its city-center, our mean-sample household would bear an extra-consumption of approximatively six fuel tanks per year. More generally, doubling residential Density would result in an annual saving of approximatively two tanks per household, a gain that would be much larger if compaction were coupled with better Design (stronger jobs centralization, improved rail-routes or buses transiting to job centers and reduced pressure for road construction), and more Diversity (continuous morphology of the built-up environment). Another important finding is that the relationship between metropolitan population and car emissions is not linear but bell-shaped in France, contrary to the US, which suggests that small cities do compensate lack of Density by either a better Design or more Diversity. |
| Keywords: | car emissions; carbon footprint; public transport; Smart Cities; Sprawl |
| JEL: | Q4 R1 R2 R4 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13086&r=ene |
| By: | Yves Crozet (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon - Université de Lyon) |
| Abstract: | To understand mobility in the future, we must not look just at changes in transportation, which simply serve as variables in the general equation. Over the past decades, the factor of speed has made mobility democratic owing to relatively lower prices. This trend has met its limits. The "commercial" speeds of various forms of transport are stable or even declining. To imagine mobility in the future, focus must be shifted from speed to the new ways (individual and collective) of managing time, which has become the scarcest resource for people. For this reason, public policy has set as priority "daily forms of mobility", which are subjected to financial, energy and environmental conditions. The aim is no longer to increase speed but to optimize the management of space, the scarcest collective resource. |
| Abstract: | Pour comprendre les mobilités du futur, il ne faut pas regarder seulement du côté de l'évolution des moyens de transport. Ils ne sont qu'une des variables de l'équation des mobilités. Au cours des dernières décennies, l'accès à la vitesse s'est démocratisé du fait de la baisse de son prix relatif. Ce mouvement rencontre pourtant des limites. Les vitesses commerciales des différents modes de transport sont stables, voire régressent. Pour concevoir le futur de la mobilité, nous devons non pas nous polariser sur la vitesse, mais sur les formes nouvelles, individuelles et collectives de la gestion du temps, ce dernier étant devenu pour les individus la ressource la plus rare. C'est la raison pour laquelle les politiques publiques donnent aujourd'hui la priorité aux mobilités quotidiennes en les soumettant à des contraintes financières, énergétiques et environnementales. Pour cela, elles ne visent plus à accroître les vitesses, mais à optimiser la gestion de la ressource collective la plus rare : l'espace. |
| Keywords: | Déterminants de la mobilité,déplacement des personnes,politiques publiques,mobilités de la vie quotidienne,gestion du temps,budgets temps |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01852290&r=ene |
| By: | Hong Thai Le (Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Bournemouth University); Marta Disegna (Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Bournemouth University) |
| Abstract: | In extensive oil-related literature, less attention has been paid to Asia and particularly little evidence is known for oil-refining countries. This paper examines how the economy of an oil-refining country reacts to an oil price shock and performs cross-country comparisons with oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Singapore (oil refiner), Japan (oil importer), and Malaysia (oil exporter) have been analysed through a SVAR model using both macroeconomic and financial variables. Results show limited reactions of both macroeconomic indicators and stock returns to an oil supply shock and an oil aggregate demand shock negatively impacts economic activities. Our findings reveal that the country’s status in the oil market matters is important when an oil specific demand shock is analysed. Our findings inform policymakers of the effectiveness of using monetary policy tools such as interest rate and exchange rate to mitigate the adverse effects of an oil price shock. |
| Keywords: | oil price; oil refining; stock return; SVAR; Asian economies |
| JEL: | G10 E31 C58 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bam:wpaper:bafes25&r=ene |
| By: | Grzegorz Marcjasz; Tomasz Serafin; Rafal Weron |
| Abstract: | We conduct an extensive empirical study on the selection of calibration windows for day-ahead electricity price forecasting, which involves 6-year long datasets from three major power markets and four autoregressive expert models fitted either to raw or transformed prices. Since the variability of prediction errors across windows of different lengths and across datasets can be substantial, selecting ex-ante one window is risky. Instead, we argue that averaging forecasts across different calibration windows is a robust alternative and introduce a new, well-performing weighting scheme for averaging these forecasts. |
| Keywords: | Electricity price forecasting; Forecast averaging; Calibration window; Autoregression; Variance stabilizing transformation; Conditional predictive ability |
| JEL: | C14 C22 C51 C53 Q47 |
| Date: | 2018–08–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1806&r=ene |
| By: | Gamtessa, Samuel; Olani, Adugna |
| Abstract: | An increase in energy-cost can induce energy effciency improvement - a reduction in energy-output ratio. There are well-established theoretical conjectures of how this can take place. As the relative energy-cost increases, it induces firms to reallocate and selectively utilize the most energy-effcient vintages. In the long-run firms could also achieve energy effciency through investments in energy-effcient capital. This study uses the Canadian KLEMS panel data set to investigate these relationships. We employ panel vector auto regressions as well as co-integration and error correction techniques to test whether the conjectures hold in the data. Our findings support the theoretical conjectures. The channels we empirically identify suggest that the effect of increased energy-cost can be an increase in energy effciency: by decreasing energy-capital ratio and increasing output-capital ratio. The latter effect is observed only in the long-run through induced investments in new capital. |
| Keywords: | Financial Economics |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:quedwp:274694&r=ene |
| By: | Chan, Kemin; Hong, Yu |
| Abstract: | Floating wind turbines are subjected to stochastic wind and wave loadings. Wind and wave loadings are not essentially aligned. The misalignment between wind and wave loadings affects the dynamical response of the floating wind turbines which needs to be studied. For this purpose, the nonlinear equations of motion of the spar-type floating wind turbine is derived using the Newton’s second law and conservation of angular momentum theory. The aerodynamic, hydrodynamic, mooring and buoyancy forces are determined and coupled with the system. The dynamic responses of the system are calculated and compared for different wind-wave misalignment angles. The simulation results demonstrate the importance of consideration of wind-wave misalignment angle on the dynamic response for the floating offshore wind turbine. |
| Keywords: | Spar floating wind turbine; conservation of angular momentum; wind-wave misalignment |
| JEL: | C15 C22 L0 L00 Y80 Z10 |
| Date: | 2018–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:88777&r=ene |
| By: | Tetsuya KAWAMURA; Takanori Ida; Kazuhito Ogawa |
| Abstract: | An understanding of crowd funding—an increasingly attractive alternative means of financing research and development—could assist effective campaign design. A randomized control trial online field experiment determined which participants donated toward the research and development of next-generation space power plants, and which of three intervention types facilitate donation: “matching”, “social pressure” and “matching & pressure”. Results indicate that: (1) all intervention types increased the donation rates significantly; (2) the total effects of “matching” and “pressure” surpassed the effect of “matching & pressure” for participants with low intrinsic motives, but not for participants with high intrinsic motives. |
| Keywords: | Online Field Experiment, Donation, Matching Fund, Social Pressure, Crowding out,Intrinsic Motives |
| JEL: | C93 D03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kue:epaper:e-18-005&r=ene |
| By: | Puls, Thomas; Oberst, Christian |
| Abstract: | In deutschen Großstädten kommen heute gerade einmal gut drei Elektroautos auf einen Ladepunkt. Die Betreiber der Ladestationen können daher mit dem Stromverkauf kein profitables Geschäft machen. Doch ohne eine flächendeckende Ladeinfrastruktur bleibt die Anschaffung eines Elektrofahrzeugs für die meisten Autofahrer unattraktiv - obwohl die Hersteller immer mehr Elektroautos anbieten. Eine deutliche Senkung der CO2-Emissionen im Straßenverkehr wird aber nur mit einem spürbaren Markthochlauf von Elektrofahrzeugen gelingen können. Ohne eine entsprechend ausgebaute Ladeinfrastruktur werden die europäischen Klimaschutzziele im Straßenverkehr daher kaum zu erreichen sein. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwkkur:542018&r=ene |
| By: | Petig, Eckart; Rudi, Andreas; Angenendt, Elisabeth; Schultmann, Frank; Bahrs, Enno |
| Abstract: | Die Transformation einer erdölbasierten zu einer biobasierten Wirtschaft ist auf Rohstoffe aus der Landwirtschaft angewiesen. Dies kann die Konkurrenzsituation zwischen den verschiedenen Nutzungspfaden für landwirtschaftliche Biomassen (food, feed, fuel, fibre) verschärfen. Da viele Technologien und mögliche Absatzwege einer sich entwickelnden Bioökonomie derzeit noch nicht bekannt sind, können Simulationsmodelle Entwicklungspfade, Potenziale, Chancen und Risiken aufzeigen. Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird ein Modellverbund aus einem landwirtschaftlichen Angebotsmodell und einem techno-ökonomischen Standortoptimierungsmodell vorgestellt und die Vorgehensweise am Beispiel der optimalen räumlichen Verteilung von Strohverbrennungsanlagen in Baden-Württemberg aufgezeigt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Strohverbrennung ca. 2,3 % des Bruttostromverbrauchs Baden-Württembergs decken könnte. Insgesamt führen die untersuchten Szenarien zu einer Erhöhung der landwirtschaftlichen Deckungsbeiträge. Darüber hinaus zeigt sich, dass der Ausbau der Strohverbrennung sowohl einen Rückgang der Biogassubstratproduktion zur Folge hätte, als auch die Futtermittelzukäufe der landwirtschaftlichen Betriebe in Baden-Württemberg erhöhen würde. Der hier vorgestellte Modellverbund kann für die Analyse weiterer land- und forstwirtschaftlicher Biomassearten für die energetische Verwertung und mögliche Technologien der stofflichen Nutzung, wie z.B. die Produktion von biobasierten Grundstoffen angewendet werden. Darüber hinaus lassen sich weitere Modelle, wie z.B. partielle und allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodelle, aber auch Modelle zur Bewertung von ökologischen Wirkungen, wie Ökobilanzierungsmodelle, integrieren. |
| Keywords: | Farm Management, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2017–08–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gewi17:261991&r=ene |
| By: | Debnath, Deepayan; Whistance, Jarrett; Thompson, Wyatt; Westoff, Patrick |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2017–12–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iats16:266830&r=ene |
| By: | Radek Stefanski (University of St Andrews); Gerhard Toews (University of Oxford) |
| Abstract: | Resource misallocation explains a large part of cross-country productivity differences. Although measuring gaps in marginal products of labor and capital across plants can quantify the extent of this misallocation, it cannot account for its source. We address this problem by using novel microdata from the oil industry (that includes information on taxation) to pin down both the extent and the source of misallocation in the rest-of-the-world versus the United States. We confirm the existence of sizeable gaps in marginal products across production units. However, once differences in direct taxation are accounted for, these gaps largely disappear. This provides strong evidence that gaps in marginal products - and hence productivity - are largely driven by differences in tax policies rather than more indirect distortions. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed018:272&r=ene |
| By: | Bi-Huei Tsai (National Chiao Tung University); Pei-Wei Kuo (National Chiao Tung University) |
| Abstract: | This study focuses on the reactions of abnormal returns on the Taiwanese solar stocks from eight anti-dumping events to examine the effect of anti-dumping tax on the Taiwanese solar companies. We collects the Taiwanese market reactions to U.S. announced anti-dumping tax on Taiwan, and the Chinese market reactions to U.S. announced anti-dumping tax on China. The purposes of this study are to explore whether abnormal returns are negative during the announcement of anti-dumping tax investigation. Furthermore, we test how abnormal returns change when the verdict of anti-dumping tax is favorable or unfavorable. Finally, we test whether Taiwanese solar stocks abnormal returns are positive during American announcement of anti-dumping tax on China. We find that the abnormal returns are negative during the announcement of anti-dumping tax investigation. The abnormal returns are positive if the verdict of anti-dumping tax is favorable. On the other hand, the abnormal returns are negative if the verdict of anti-dumping tax is unfavorable. Because China and Taiwan ranks top one and two in solar investment respectively, we find positive abnormal returns of Taiwanese companies during American?s announcement of anti-dumping tax on China. |
| Keywords: | Solar, Anti-dumping, Abnormal Returns, Tax, Verdict |
| JEL: | G00 H21 Q20 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:7808968&r=ene |