nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2018‒05‒14
thirty-one papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Cutting with both arms of the scissors: the economic and political case for restrictive supply-side climate policies By Green, Fergus; Denniss, Richard
  2. Impact of German Energiewende on Transmission Lines in the Central European Region By Jan Malek; Lukas Recka; Karel Janda
  3. Photovoltaics and the Slovak Electricity Market By Karel Janda; Michaela Koscova
  4. Coal Demand, Market Forces, and US Coal Mine Closures By Brett Jordan; Ian A. Lange; Joshua Linn
  5. Financial Markets, Innovations and Cleaner Energy Production in OECD Countries By Mamun, Md Al; Sohag, Kazi; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  6. Information Leverage: The Adoption of Clean Cooking Fuel in Bhutan By Toshi H. Arimura; Kazuyuki Iwata; Hajime Katayama; Mari Sakudo
  7. Frontiers of Low-Carbon Technologies: Results from Bibliographic Coupling with Sliding Window By Yi-Ming Wei; Jin-Wei Wang; Tianqi Chen; Bi-Ying Yu; Hua Liao
  8. Price elasticities of electricity demand in Switzerland: Results from a household panel By Benjamin Volland; Ivan Tilov
  9. Oil price collapse and firm leverage in resource-dependent countries By Kurronen, Sanna
  10. Are the Crude Oil Markets Really Becoming More Efficient over Time? Some New Evidence By Ladislav Kristoufek
  11. Cross subsidies across network users: renewable self-consumption By Cédric Clastres; Jacques Percebois; Olivier Rebenaque; Boris Solier
  12. Global Melting? The Economics of Disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet By William D. Nordhaus
  13. Time-inconsistent environmental policies with a consumer-friendly firm: tradable permits versus emission tax By Garcia, Arturo; Leal, Mariel; Lee, Sang-Ho
  14. Sustainable transitions and complex socio-technical systems: renewable energy and the electricity grid in the USA, UK and Germany By Coles, Anne-Marie; Peters, S. R.
  15. Counterfactual comparisons of investment options for wind power and agricultural production in the United States: Lessons from Northern Ohio By Alexandre Ribeiro Scarcioffolo; Fernanda Finotti Perobelli, Ariaster Baumgratz Chimeli
  16. Energy efficiency as a credence good: A review of informational barriers to building energy savings By Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet
  17. Climate Damage on Production or on Growth: What Impact on the Social Cost of Carbon? By Céline Guivarch; Antonin Pottier
  18. Scenario techniques for energy and environmental research: An overview of recent developments to broaden the capacity to deal with complexity and uncertainty By Céline Guivarch; Robert Lempert; Evelina Trutnevyte
  19. Energy efficiency, information, and the acceptability of rent increases: A multiple price list experiment with tenants By Ghislaine Lang; Bruno Lanz
  20. User-focused design factors of workspace for nearly zero energy office renovation: findings from literature review By Minyoung Kwon; Hilde Remøy; Andy Van den Dobbelsteen; Ulrich Knaack
  21. Inanspruchnahme von Landwirtschaftsfläche durch Freiflächen-Photovoltaik-Anlagen im Jahr 2017 By Tietz, Andreas
  22. Does ‘clean’ pay off? Integrating heating technology in hedonic pricing models By Jonas Hahn; Jens Hirsch; Joseph-Alexander Zeitler; Sven Bienert
  23. Volatility uncertainty quantification in a stochastic control problem applied to energy By Francisco Bernal; Emmanuel Gobet; Jacques Printems
  24. Kein "Weiter so" in der deutschen Klimapolitik: Handlungsvorschläge für die neue Bundesregierung By Winkler, Malte; Delzeit, Ruth
  25. Le marché français de capacité d'électricité By Frédéric Marty
  26. Households and heat stress: estimating the distributional consequences of climate change By Park, Jisung; Bangalore, Mook; Hallegatte, Stephane; Sandhoefner, Evan
  27. The entrepreneurial development of regions: Exploring the socio-technical transition of Lusatia from a multi-level perspective By Tomenendal, Matthias; Lange, Hans Rüdiger; Kirch, Johannes; Rosin, Anna Frieda
  28. China's trajectory from production to innovation: Insights from the photovoltaics sector By Gandenberger, Carsten
  29. The Impact of Climate Conditions on Economic Production. Evidence from a Global Panel of Regions By Kalkuhl, Matthias; Wenz, Leonie
  30. Réunion de l’OPEP : beaucoup de bruit pour rien ? By Céline Antonin
  31. The Brazilian Amazon: a resource curse or renewed colonialism? By Martina Iorio; Salvatore Monni; Barbara Brollo

  1. By: Green, Fergus; Denniss, Richard
    Abstract: Proponents of climate change mitigation face difficult choices about which types of policy instrument(s) to pursue. The literature on the comparative evaluation of climate policy instruments has focused overwhelmingly on economic analyses of instruments aimed at restricting demand for greenhouse gas emissions (especially carbon taxes and cap-and-trade schemes) and, to some extent, on instruments that support the supply of or demand for substitutes for emissions-intensive goods, such as renewable energy. Evaluation of instruments aimed at restricting the upstream supply of commodities or products whose downstream consumption causes greenhouse gas emissions—such as fossil fuels—has largely been neglected in this literature. Moreover, analyses that compare policy instruments using both economic and political (e.g. political “feasibility” and “feedback”) criteria are rare. This article aims to help bridge both of these gaps. Specifically, the article demonstrates that restrictive supply-side policy instruments (targeting fossil fuels) have numerous characteristic economic and political advantages over otherwise similar restrictive demand-side instruments (targeting greenhouse gases). Economic advantages include low administrative and transaction costs, higher abatement certainty (due to the relative ease of monitoring, reporting and verification), comprehensive within-sector coverage, some advantageous price/efficiency effects, the mitigation of infrastructure “lock-in” risks, and mitigation of the “green paradox”. Political advantages include the superior potential to mobilise public support for supply-side policies, the conduciveness of supply-side policies to international policy cooperation, and the potential to bring different segments of the fossil fuel industry into a coalition supportive of such policies. In light of these attributes, restrictive supply-side policies squarely belong in the climate policy “toolkit”.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2018–03–12
  2. By: Jan Malek (DIW Berlin, Mohrenstraße 58, 10117 Berlin, Germany); Lukas Recka (Department of Banking and Insurance, Faculty of Finance and Accounting, University of Economics, Namesti Winstona Churchilla 4, 13067 Prague, Czech Republic); Karel Janda (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic; Department of Banking and Insurance, Faculty of Finance and Accounting, University of Economics, Namesti Winstona Churchilla 4, 13067 Prague, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: The impacts of renewable energy production and German nuclear phase-out on the electricity transmission systems in Central Europe is investigated with focus on the disparity between the growth of renewable production and the pace at which new electricity transmission lines have been built, especially in Germany. This imbalance endangers the system stability and reliability in the whole region. The assessment of these impacts on the transmission grid is analysed by the direct current load flow model ELMOD. Two scenarios for the year 2025 are evaluated from different perspectives. The distribution of loads in the grids is shown. Hourly patterns are analysed. Geographical decomposition is made, and problematic regions are identified. The high solar or wind power generation decrease the periods of very low transmission load and increase the mid- and high load on the transmission lines. High solar feed-in has less detrimental impacts on the transmission grid than high wind feed-in. High wind feed-in burdens the transmission lines in the north-south direction in Germany and water-pump-storage areas in Austria.
    Keywords: Energiewende, RES, transmission networks, congestion, loop flows, ELMOD, Central Europe
    JEL: L94 Q21 Q48 C61
    Date: 2018–02
  3. By: Karel Janda (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic; Department of Banking and Insurance, Faculty of Finance and Accounting, University of Economics, Namesti Winstona Churchilla 4, 13067 Prague, Czech Republic); Michaela Koscova (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: This paper analyses Slovak electricity market with a focus on photovoltaic energy. It evaluates the impact of the solar energy penetration into energy mix on spot prices, seeks evidence of the merit order effect in the Slovak electricity market and quantifies it based on hourly data. The multivariate regression analysis covers the period 2011-2016. The rather small merit order effect estimated by an OLS time series model leads to the small decrease of Slovak electricity wholesale prices. This spot price reduction attributable to the photovoltaics does not outweigh the costs of the support scheme borne by end users what implies a consumer loss.
    Keywords: Slovakia; Photovoltaics; Energy policy; Merit order effect
    JEL: Q42 H23 M21
    Date: 2018–01
  4. By: Brett Jordan; Ian A. Lange; Joshua Linn
    Abstract: Economic transitions have the potential to displace workers and cause social unrest. Coal mine closures in the eastern United States due to the changing electricity system and the resulting employment losses in rural areas have become salient issues for all levels of government. Previous research has not distinguished among the potential causes of recent mine closures, such as rising production costs and decreasing coal demand from the electricity sector. This analysis utilizes unique data on coal mine and power plant operation to estimate the impact of supply and demand factors on mine closure. We model closure as a function of expected profits, which allows us to compare the effects on mine closure of specific demand and supply shocks to expected mine profits. Our results suggest that each shock substantially affected coal mine employment. Increasing costs of producing Appalachian coal have had the largest impact on closures with lower natural gas prices and lower electricity demand each accounting for a substantial number of closures additionally.
    Keywords: coal mining, firm exit, fuel procurement
    JEL: L51 L71 Q53
    Date: 2018
  5. By: Mamun, Md Al; Sohag, Kazi; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Hammoudeh, Shawkat
    Abstract: Using a large sample of 25 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, we provide evidence that the growth of equity and credit markets promotes cleaner energy (biomass renewable energy, non biomass renewable energy, and total bio and non-bio renewable energy) production in those countries. We also find that the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) adversely affects the production of cleaner energy. Our results are robust to alternative definitions of financial market development, cleaner energy, and controlling for the effect of government subsidy on cleaner energy. By supporting the demand-induced supply of cleaner energy, we demonstrate that the positive and significant effect of financial market development (FMD) on cleaner energy is stronger in countries with higher growth in carbon intensity and a lower availability of fossil fuels than otherwise. Our results also support the argument that financing uncertain projects such as those that produce cleaner energy should be greater in countries with a higher innovation culture than those where financial markets are already accustomed to undertaking risky investments. The overall results are also robust under the conditions of short-run and long-run homogeneity and the cross-sectional dependence in the sample. Policy implications are also provided.
    Keywords: Biomass and cleaner energy production, common correlated effects pooled (CCEP), credit and equity markets, global financial crisis, innovation
    JEL: A1
    Date: 2018–04–01
  6. By: Toshi H. Arimura (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, and Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University, Japan); Kazuyuki Iwata (Faculty of Economics, Matsuyama University, Ehime, Japan, and Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University, Japan); Hajime Katayama (Faculty of Commerce, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, and Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University, Japan); Mari Sakudo (Research Institute of Capital Formation, Development Bank of Japan, Japan Economic Research Institute, and Research Institute for Environmental Economics and Management, Waseda University, Japan)
    Abstract: To reduce their environmental impacts, a growing number of organizations worldwide have implemented environmental management systems (EMSs). In these organizations, energy conservation activities become usual behaviors for employees; thus, we hypothesize that employees continue such energy conservation behaviors at home. This hypothesis is supported by data from surveys of individuals in Japan. Specifically, we find that the probability of engaging in energy conservation practices at home is higher and that expenditures on electricity use are lower for individuals who work in organizations that implement EMSs than for individuals who do not work in organizations with EMSs. Our results suggest that beyond the original purpose of helping organizations reduce their environmental impacts, EMSs work as an intervention to promote household energy conservation.
    Keywords: Conservation Behaviors, Electricity, Environmental Management System, Energy Efficiency, Household Electricity Expenditure
    JEL: Q40 Q50
    Date: 2018–05
  7. By: Yi-Ming Wei; Jin-Wei Wang; Tianqi Chen; Bi-Ying Yu; Hua Liao
    Abstract: It is of great significance to quickly and accurately detect the current and future development trends of low-carbon technologies (LCT). However, there is a lack of detecting research fronts of low-carbon technologies based on the bibliographic data. This paper proposes a research framework integrating LCT domains and the bibliometric coupling with sliding window technique to explore the LCT research fronts in recent decade (from 2007 to 2016). Eleven research fronts matching the foresight given by LCT experts are identified, including carbon capture and storage (CCS) in power generation, technology transfer, technology diffusion, electrocoagulation, magnetic nanoparticles, critical metals application, electrocatalytic water oxidation, ionic liquids, mutually immiscible ionic liquids, electric vehicle (China), electric vehicle (UK and USA). Closer investigation of the evolution shows that CCS application in the power plants and hydrogen production from water electrolysis are two emerging fronts. Besides, bibliometric coupling with sliding window is an effective tool to detect the frontiers of low-carbon technologies. Finally, the implications of the research for LCT monitoring and development are discussed.
    Keywords: Low-carbon technologies; Research fronts; Bibliometric coupling; Sliding window; Data driven
    JEL: Q54 Q40
    Date: 2018–04–28
  8. By: Benjamin Volland; Ivan Tilov
    Abstract: In this paper, we use data from a new household-level panel survey to estimate short- and long-run price elasticities of residential electricity demand in Switzerland. We exploit Switzerland's unique local variation in topography-related grid maintenance costs and electricity taxation, to address endogeneity of average prices in our models. Using first difference and gradual adjustment models, we find short-run elasticities of -0.3 and long-run elasticities in excess of negative unity. Results thus suggest that a tax on electricity, as initially foreseen as a part of Switzerland's Energy Strategy 2050, is likely to have a moderate effect in the short run, but an important one in the long run.
    Keywords: Residential electricity demand, price elasticity, panel data, Switzerland
    JEL: C23 D12 Q41 Q48
    Date: 2018–05
  9. By: Kurronen, Sanna
    Abstract: This study examines the financial channel between oil price volatility and the resource curse using firm-level data. A collapse in oil prices adversely affects firm borrowing in resource-dependent countries. However, unlike in non-resource-dependent countries where just the resource sector is harmed, both resource and non-resource firms are affected in resource-dependent countries in an oil price collapse. We also find evidence of a flight to quality in lending, implying that the decline in leverage can partly be attributed to a reduction in the credit supply. Our results suggest that oil price volatility operates via the financial channel to impede economic diversification in resource-dependent countries.
    JEL: Q32 O13 G32 Q02 G21
    Date: 2018–04–26
  10. By: Ladislav Kristoufek (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: We replicate the study of Tabak & Cajueiro (2007): "Are the crude oil markets becoming weakly efficient over time? A test for time-varying long-range dependence in prices and volatility" published in Energy Economics 29, pp. 28-36. The results have been mostly confirmed. Specifically, we have confirmed that the crude oil markets efficiency could be rejected up till approximately 1994 and this holds for both studied crude oil commodities – Brent and WTI. Analyzing an extended dataset up till June 2017, we find that the markets remained efficient (at least with respect to long-range dependence) until the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008. This is confirmed by all three applied methods – the rescaled range analysis used in the original study, and the detrended fluctuation analysis and the Geweke-Porter-Hudak estimator which were added for stronger validity of the results. The markets returned back to efficiency around 2012 and remained there until 2015 when the Hurst exponent started another rally and stayed rather high until the end of the examined sample. Comparing the two markets, the Brent crude oil shows stronger signs of inefficiency during the inefficient periods compared to the WTI crude oil. This is in hand with the results reported in the original study. Apart from rerunning the analysis on an extended dataset and using two additional methods, we also provide a firmer validity check using the moving-block bootstrap procedure, which outperforms the original shuffling procedure in the provided forecasting study.
    Keywords: crude oil, efficient market hypothesis, forecasting, long-range dependence, replication
    JEL: G14 Q40
    Date: 2018–02
  11. By: Cédric Clastres (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Jacques Percebois (CREDEN - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Droit de l'ENergie - UM1 - Université Montpellier 1); Olivier Rebenaque (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes, Chaire économie du climat - Chaire économie du climat); Boris Solier (Chaire économie du climat - Chaire économie du climat)
    Abstract: The deployment of renewable energies relies upon incentive policies to make their use profitable for owner. However, their development needs adjustments of network to manage intermittency and additional energy fed into the grid. Moreover, the Public Service Obligation Tariffs (PSOT) are increasing to fund policies that support renewable energy deployment. Therefore, some decisions are taken to promote self-consumption by owners of renewable energy power plants, as photovoltaic prosumers. This behavior is encouraged by payment exemptions of PSOT, special tariffs dedicated to remunerate each self-consumed energy unit or savings on the variable part of the network tariff. Thus, some cross-subsidies appear between self-consumers and other users of the network to compensate all these previous self-consumers' gains. We show that these cross-subsidies occur but they strongly rely on self-consumption rate and on renewable energy share in the total produced or consumed energy. So, currently, the levels of cross-subsidies are not significant for consumers. We also show that regulator could fund these cross-subsidies increasing the fixed part of the network tariff for prosumers.
    Keywords: Self-consumption, Cross-subsidies, Network tariff, Policy instruments
    Date: 2018–04
  12. By: William D. Nordhaus (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)
    Abstract: Concerns about the impact on large-scale earth systems have taken center stage in the scientific and economic analysis of climate change. The present study analyzes the economic impact of a potential disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). The method is to combine a small geophysical model of the GIS with the DICE integrated assessment model. The result shows that the GIS is likely to disappear over the next millennium or so without climate policy, but an active climate policy may prevent the GIS from crossing the threshold of irreversibility. Additionally, the study estimates the impact of the GIS on the social cost of carbon (SCC) and finds that adding GIS dynamics would add less than 5% to the SCC under alternative discount rates and estimates of the GIS dynamics. Simulations of geo-engineering options indicate that the dynamics of disintegration and rebuilding are extremely asymmetric, implying that GIS disintegration should be treated as irreversible.
    Keywords: Climate change, Environment, Ice sheets, DICE model
    JEL: Q5 Q54 H4
    Date: 2018–04
  13. By: Garcia, Arturo; Leal, Mariel; Lee, Sang-Ho
    Abstract: This study considers the timing of environmental policies with a consumer-friendly firm having abatement technology, and compares two market-based regulations: tradable permits and emission tax regulations. When the government can credibly commit its policy, we show that the equilibrium outcomes under both policies are equivalent in terms of permits price and tax rate. Under the non-committed policy, however, the equivalence breaks down because firms have different incentives to induce time-consistent policy to be adjusted ex post. In particular, compared to pre-committed government, firms abate less emission to induce higher emission quotas under the permits policy while a consumer-friendly firm abates more emissions to reduce tax rate under the tax policy. Finally, we show that tax policy can induce higher welfare and lower environmental damage when the concern on consumer surplus is moderate.
    Keywords: abatement technology; consumer-friendly firm; environmental policy; tradable permits; emission tax
    JEL: L13 L31 Q58
    Date: 2018–04–01
  14. By: Coles, Anne-Marie; Peters, S. R.
    Abstract: Transitions management identifies broad national efforts that attempt to govern socio-technical change along more environmentally sustainable pathways. Although the complexity of such endeavours is generally acknowledged, it is not yet clear how governance practices work at an international level. This paper utilises the transitions management concept to compare three countries in their attempts to increase the adoption and use of renewable energy technologies. It notes that analysis at a micro-level needs to focus on the actions and requirements of particular user groups for a deeper elucidation of transition management processes. Furthermore, the complexity of socio-technical change processes implies that transitions management is a more useful concept when focused at the micro-level of change rather than at the macro-level of strategy formulation over the longer term.
    Keywords: Renewable energy; transitions management; energy users; inter-country comparison;
    JEL: O33 O57 Q42
    Date: 2018–05–03
  15. By: Alexandre Ribeiro Scarcioffolo; Fernanda Finotti Perobelli, Ariaster Baumgratz Chimeli
    Abstract: We analyze potential efficiency gains in wind power projects by comparing counterfactual investment decisions in two different scenarios under a real options framework. The first scenario is a standard wind power investment, where the investor rents the land from local farms. In the second scenario, the wind power investor buys the land and commercializes both electricity and crop production, thus shortening the revenue risk through the diversification. Both scenarios have a waiting option, with the wholesale prices leading the installation decision. We model the electricity price as a mean reverting process with jumps and with different jumping probabilities for the different seasons of the year. Corn prices follow a mean reverting process. The waiting flexibility was modeled as a bundle of European options. The results indicate that the waiting option is exercised in 100% of our simulations in both scenarios, suggesting the still important role of government policies to stimulate wind power. More importantly, in more than 90% of the simulations, the second scenario brought value to the investment. Furthermore, net present values are more sensitive to reductions in capital costs than electricity prices. These results can form the basis for more effective policies for the wind power sector.
    Keywords: Wind Energy; Corn; Real Options Framework; Investment decision
    JEL: G23 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2018–04–11
  16. By: Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (Ecole des Ponts ParisTech, CIRED)
    Abstract: Information problems have early been suspected to be the main barrier to energy-efficiency investment. I review the vast yet piecemeal research that has been carried out since. Focusing on energy efficiency in buildings, I organize the review around the concept of credence good: just like that of auto repairs or taxi rides, the quality of energy-efficiency measures is never fully revealed to the buyer; as a result, it is subject to multiple information asymmetries. My first contribution is to distinguish symmetric-information problems from information asymmetries. The former arise when information is either incomplete or imperfect, but equally shared by contracting parties; as non-market failures, these can be addressed by technological progress and insurance markets. My second contribution is to give structure to the information asymmetries associated with energy efficiency by disentangling screening, signalling, moral hazard and price discrimination within a variety of contractual relationships involving buyers and sellers, owners and renters, and borrowers and lenders. I find evidence of information asymmetries to be compelling in landlord-tenant relationships, unclear in real estate markets, and scarce in retrofit contracting and financing. I conclude by discussing the intricacies between informational and behavioural problems in energy-efficiency decisions.
    Keywords: Energy-efficiency gap, Information asymmetries, Credence goods, Building energy,
    JEL: Q41 D82
    Date: 2018–04
  17. By: Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Antonin Pottier (CERNA i3 - Centre d'économie industrielle i3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - PSL - PSL Research University - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris)
    Abstract: Recent articles have investigated with integrated assessment models the possibility that climate damage bears on productivity (TFP) growth and not on production. Here, we compare the impact of these alternative representations of damage on the social cost of carbon (SCC). We ask whether damage on TFP growth leads to higher SCC than damage on production ceteris paribus. To make possible a controlled comparison, we introduce a measure of aggregate damage, or damage strength, based on welfare variations. With a simple climate-economy model, we compare three damage structures: quadratic damage on production, linear damage on growth and quadratic damage on growth. We show that when damage strength is the same, the ranking of SCC between a model with damage on production and a model with damage on TFP growth is not unequivocal. It depends on welfare parameters such as the utility discount rate or the elasticity of marginal social utility of consumption.
    Keywords: climate change,damage,social cost of carbon,growth,TFP,IAM
    Date: 2017
  18. By: Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Robert Lempert (RAND Corporation - Santa Monica); Evelina Trutnevyte (Department of Environmental Systems Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, ETH Zurich - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: Scenario techniques are a teeming field in energy and environmental research and decision making. This Thematic Issue (TI) highlights quantitative (computational) methods that improve the development and use of scenarios for dealing with the dual challenge of complexity and (deep) uncertainty. The TI gathers 13 articles that describe methodological innovations or extensions and refinements of existing methods, as well as applications that demonstrate the potential of these methodological developments. The TI proposes two methodological foci for dealing with the challenges of (deep) uncertainty and complexity: diversity and vulnerability approaches help tackle uncertainty; multiple-objective and multiple-scale approaches help address complexity; whereas some combinations of those foci can also be applied. This overview article to the TI presents the contributions gathered in the TI, and shows how they individually and collectively bring new capacity to scenarios techniques to deal with complexity and (deep) uncertainty.
    Keywords: scenarios,uncertainty,complexity,diversity,vulnerability,multiple-objective,multiple- scale
    Date: 2017–11–01
  19. By: Ghislaine Lang; Bruno Lanz
    Abstract: This paper studies split incentives associated with energy efficiency investments in rented properties. We design a multiple price list experiment representing owners' decisions to replace the central heating appliance, and elicit tenants' willingness to pay (WTP) for an option that is 30% more energy efficient. We then quantify how tenants' WTP varies with a set of informational interventions. Our results show that tenants' baseline WTP is around CHF 450 per year on average (about USD 470), and that information on expected financial savings increases mean WTP by up to 70%. A set of quantile regressions further suggest that information on financial gains induces around 30% of tenants to adjust baseline WTP accordingly, while 20% oppose rent increases and do not respond to information and tenants in the upper tail of the distribution increase their WTP substantially. By contrast, informing tenants about CO2 tax payments has no incremental impact on WTP.
    Keywords: Energy efficiency, Split incentives, Energy consumption, Rented properties, Acceptability of rent increases, Willingness to pay, Economic experiments, Multiple price lists
    JEL: Q4 R31 Q5 H23
    Date: 2018–05
  20. By: Minyoung Kwon; Hilde Remøy; Andy Van den Dobbelsteen; Ulrich Knaack
    Abstract: This paper highlights the importance of considering user satisfaction in office renovation. User-focused design approach in nearly zero energy office (nZEO) renovation is a way to increase user satisfaction and the value of office quality while meeting energy efficiency goal. The purpose of this paper is to investigate considerable measurement factors affecting user satisfaction. It is also to help better understating about user/occupants’ preferences. Measurement factors are studied through literature reviews in relation to user satisfaction of workspaces. The approach aims to give a guide for analysis and evaluation of user satisfaction and to strengthen their importance in an office renovation. The findings present that main measurement factors to increase user satisfaction are not only associated with indoor environmental quality but also with psychological issues such as a feasibility of collaboration, social contact, etc. Additionally, the relationship between measurement factors and hierarchy of user requirements are described.
    Keywords: Occupants well-being; Office renovation; User satisfaction; User values; Work environment
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2017–07–01
  21. By: Tietz, Andreas
    Abstract: Der Bericht analysiert die Inanspruchnahme von Freiflächen, insbesondere Landwirtschaftsfläche, durch Photovoltaik-Anlagen, die im Rahmen des Gesetzes für den Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien (EEG 2017) eine Förderberechtigung erhielten. Die Analyse beruht auf Einzeldaten der in neun Ausschreibungsrunden 2015 bis 2017 bezuschlagten Gebote sowie aller bis November 2017 in Betrieb genommenen Anlagen. Aus den drei Ausschreibungen 2017 resultiert eine voraussichtliche Inanspruchnahme von 939 ha Freifläche durch die geplanten Anlagen. Davon entfallen vermutlich etwa 364 ha auf Landwirt-schaftsfläche, ähnlich viel wie in den Vorjahren. Die Daten der in Betrieb genommenen Anlagen lassen eine Abschätzung darüber, wieviel Landwirtschaftsfläche durch die realisierten Vorhaben tatsächlich in Anspruch genommen wurde, nicht zu. Um ein Monitoring der Flächeninanspruch-nahme zu ermöglichen, wird eine verbesserte Datenaufbereitung und Plausibilitätsprüfung der gemeldeten Daten empfohlen.
    Keywords: Erneuerbare Energien,Photovoltaik,Flächeninanspruchnahme,Deutschland,renewable energies,photovoltaics,land take,Germany
    JEL: O13 Q42 R14
    Date: 2018
  22. By: Jonas Hahn; Jens Hirsch; Joseph-Alexander Zeitler; Sven Bienert
    Abstract: Comprehensive research has dealt with the question whether property markets show price premiums for buildings that feature ‘green’ characteristics such as low energy consumption or a building certification. We expand existing research by raising and answering the question if housing properties that were explicitly advertised to feature ? ‘green’ ceating technology based on renewable energies or ‘brown’ heating technology based on fossil energies or even obsolescent technology come with significant price differences in association with these technological differences. For this purpose, we perform large-sample geoadditive regression analyses on the basis of a private dataset, which originally contains more than 3 million raw observations from German residential properties of 2015. We indeed find significant impact on housing prices, which is specifically visible in the form of a ‘brown’ discount for properties that are powered by fossil-fueled energy systems. From our findings, we suggest that low-energy consumption levels may still lead to price discounts c.p. if it is caused by mainly building-related quality and system-related measures stay unperformed.
    Keywords: Energy Efficiency; Heating Technology; Housing Market; Housing Prices; Sustainability
    JEL: R3
    Date: 2017–07–01
  23. By: Francisco Bernal (CMAP - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - Ecole Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Emmanuel Gobet (CMAP - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - Ecole Polytechnique - X - École polytechnique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Jacques Printems (LAMA - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Mathématiques Appliquées - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - Fédération de Recherche Bézout - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This work designs a methodology to quantify the uncertainty of a volatility parameter in a stochastic control problem arising in energy management. The difficulty lies in the non-linearity of the underlying scalar Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. We proceed by decomposing the unknown solution on a Hermite polynomial basis (of the unknown volatility), whose different coefficients are solution to a system of non-linear PDEs of the same kind. Numerical tests show that computing the first basis elements may be enough to get an accurate approximation with respect to the uncertain volatility parameter. We experiment the methodology in the context of swing contract (energy contract with flexibility in purchasing energy power), this allows to introduce the concept of Uncertainty Value Adjustment (UVA), whose aim is to value the risk of misspecification of the volatility model.
    Keywords: chaos expansion,uncertainty quantification,stochastic control,stochastic programming,Swing options,Monte Carlo simulations
    Date: 2018–05–03
  24. By: Winkler, Malte; Delzeit, Ruth
    Abstract: Um zukünftige Klimaziele zu erreichen, Handlungswillen zu demonstrieren und so einen Teil der Glaubwürdigkeit beim Klimaschutz zurück zu gewinnen, muss Deutschland zügig konkrete klimapolitische Maßnahmen einleiten bzw. weiter entwickeln, fordern die Autoren Malte Winkler und Ruth Delzeit. Auf EU-Ebene sollte sich die Bundesregierung für eine sektorale Erweiterung des Europäischen Emissionshandelssystems (EU-EHS) sowie die Einführung von Emissionsgrenzwerten für den Straßengüterverkehr einsetzen. Wichtige Maßnahmen im Stromsektor umfassen einen unter Einbeziehung beteiligter Stakeholder-Gruppen partizipativ geplanten Ausstieg aus der Kohleverstromung mit konkretem Zieldatum und der Einhaltung eines Emissionsbudgets sowie eine Strategie für einen intelligenten Netzausbau. Im Verkehrssektor sollte eine konsistente Förderung bzw. Belastung unterschiedlicher Antriebstechnologien auf Basis des CO2-Ausstoßes etabliert werden; hierzu sollten auf nationaler Ebene vorhandene Instrumente wie Strom- und Energiesteuer an die aktuellen Entwicklungen angepasst werden; auch die Maut sollte sich an den tatsächlich freigesetzten Emissionen unterschiedlicher Fahrzeugtypen orientieren. Im Wärmebereich sollten die Sanierung von Bestandsbauten sowie der Ausbau von Wärmenetzen stärker gefördert werden. Eine einheitliche CO2-Bepreisung von Heizöl und Strom würde den Einsatz von Wärmepumpen wettbewerbsfähiger machen. Sektorkopplung sowie die deutliche Stärkung des EU-EHS als System zur einheitlichen Bepreisung von Treibhausgasemissionen sollten zentrale Aspekte einer ambitionierten deutschen Klimapolitik sein.
    Keywords: Klimapolitik,Klimaziel,Bundesregierung,Kohleausstieg,E-Mobilität
    Date: 2018
  25. By: Frédéric Marty (Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion (GREDEG))
    Abstract: Annoncé dès 2010 pour garantir la sécurité d'approvisionnement lors des pointes de demande, le marché français de capacité d'électricité n'a été mis en place qu'en janvier 2017. Ce délai ne s'explique pas seulement par la complexité de la discussion quant à la nécessité d'adjoindre des incitations additionnelles aux signaux de prix fournis par les marchés de gros de l'électricité et des modalités optimales d'organisation des mécanismes de capacité, il trouve également ses origines dans la difficulté à faire émerger une solution acceptable pour les différentes parties prenantes du marché français de l'électricité mais surtout compatible avec les exigences de la Commission européenne, qu'il s'agisse des règles de concurrence ou de la politique énergétique. Cet article analyse la construction d'un compromis entre objectifs énergétiques et contraintes concurrentielles.
    Keywords: Marché de l'électricité; Pointe de demande; Sécurité d'approvisionnement; Mécanisme de capacité; Politique européenne
    Date: 2017–12
  26. By: Park, Jisung; Bangalore, Mook; Hallegatte, Stephane; Sandhoefner, Evan
    Abstract: Recent research documents the adverse causal impacts on health and productivity of extreme heat, which will worsen with climate change. In this paper, we assess the current distribution of heat exposure within countries, to explore possible distributional consequences of climate change through temperature. Combining survey data from 690,745 households across 52 countries with spatial data on climate, this paper suggests that the welfare impacts of added heat stress may be regressive within countries. We find: (1) a strong negative correlation between household wealth and warmer temperature in many hot countries; (2) a strong positive correlation between household wealth and warmer temperatures in many cold countries; and (3) that poorer individuals are more likely to work in occupations with greater exposure. While our analysis is descriptive rather than causal, our results suggest a larger vulnerability of poor people to heat extremes, and potentially significant distributional and poverty implications of climate change.
    Keywords: climate change; exposure; heat stress; labor productivity; poverty
    JEL: E24 I32 Q50 Q54
    Date: 2018–04–12
  27. By: Tomenendal, Matthias; Lange, Hans Rüdiger; Kirch, Johannes; Rosin, Anna Frieda
    Abstract: In the pursuit of strict climate policy targets the German government has decided that several lignite power plants have to be closed down by the year of 2019. One of the most affected regions is the Lusatia mining area in Eastern Germany. Here the question is raised how economic restructuring induced by climate policy can be achieved without bringing havoc on an entire region. We aim to give a first answer by developing a multi-level perspective (MLP) model for supporting regions towards more entrepreneurial activities. Based on different literature streams we suggest a model for strategic niche management towards an entrepreneurial socio-technical regime, which consists of the mid-level in the MLP as the dependent variable and resulting thrusts of strategic niche management as independent variables. The findings are illustrated by the case of Lusatia but are of general nature and can also be applied to other regions.
    Date: 2018
  28. By: Gandenberger, Carsten
    Abstract: China's photovoltaics sector provides an interesting case to examine, if and how the country is aiming at innovation leadership after having established itself as the global manufacturing leader. Due to the dominance of Chinese companies in the global PV market, their innovation and production decisions have become crucially important for the global transition towards renewable energy. Another aspect of PV technology is that technological progress has driven the develop-ment of various types of PV cells, which can be categorised in three different technology generations. The functional analysis of the technological innovation system for PV in China conducted in this paper shows, that the government has indeed strengthened indigenous innovation efforts, which has resulted in a rapid rise of academic publications and to a lesser extent of patents for PV technology. A disaggregated analysis of transnational PV patents demonstrates that techno-logical catching-up of China picked up speed in the period between 2008 and 2010 and takes place in all three technology generations. However. technological catch-up has been most successful in the third generation of PV cells, which is still at an experimental stage and predominantly conducted at public research entities. Overall, China's PV sector seems to be still quite far from attaining global innovation leadership, which is mainly due to the relatively low engagement of the corporate sector. However, as the first generation of PV currently dominates the world market and is technologically mature, this will probably not threaten industrial leadership in the short to medium term.
    Keywords: Economic Catch-Up,Photovoltaics,Technological Innovation System,China
    Date: 2018
  29. By: Kalkuhl, Matthias; Wenz, Leonie
    Abstract: We estimate the impacts of climate on economic growth using Gross Regional Product (GRP) for more than 1,500 regions in 77 countries. In temperate and tropical climates, annual temperature shocks reduce GRP whereas they increase GRP in cold climates. With respect to long-term climate conditions, one degree of temperature increase reduces output by 2-3%. The effect of annual or long-term precipitation is found to be less important and less robust among specifications. For projected global warming of 4°C until 2100, we find that regions lose 9\% of economic output on average and more than 20% of output in tropical regions.
    Keywords: climate change,climate damages,climate impacts,growth regression
    JEL: E23 O11 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2018
  30. By: Céline Antonin (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)
    Abstract: Le 30 novembre 2017, les pays membres de l’OPEP ont décidé de prolonger de neuf mois, jusqu’à décembre 2018, leur accord de 2016 prévoyant un plafonnement de production avec des quotas par pays. D’autres pays producteurs associés à l’accord, Russie en tête, ont décidé de continuer à coopérer en prolongeant également leur accord de baisse de production. Etant très attendu et anticipé par le marché, cet accord n’est pas une surprise. D’autant que derrière l’unité affichée, il a mis en exergue des divergences entre pays : d’un côté, la position très modérée de la Russie, qui a traîné des pieds pour signer l’accord ; de l’autre, la position volontariste de l’Arabie saoudite de reprendre un management plus actif des cours, après plusieurs années de relâchement. Les pays pétroliers sont toujours partagés entre d’un côté, la volonté de soutenir les cours et d’équilibrer leurs finances publiques, et de l’autre, la crainte constante de se voir voler des parts de marché par l’inexorable montée en puissance du pétrole de schiste étatsunien. Etant donnée cette double contrainte, et la situation de progressif rééquilibrage entre offre et demande dans les deux prochaines années, nous considérons que le pétrole devrait évoluer autour de 59-60 dollars le baril pour 2018 et 2019. [Premiers paragraphes]
    Keywords: OPEP; Plafonnement de production; Pays producteurs
    Date: 2017–12
  31. By: Martina Iorio (Roma Tre University); Salvatore Monni (Roma Tre University); Barbara Brollo (Roma Tre University)
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to highlight the effect of the endowment of resources on development through the analysis of the impact of national strategy, both at a regional and local level. The research focuses on the Legal Amazon, through the georeferenced analysis of socio-economic data from the last three censuses (1991, 2000 and 2010), in order to demonstrate how the Brazilian national energy strategy is contributing to the perpetuation of the phenomenon of the endowment trap at a regional level. Despite boosting the national growth, the concentration of sector-based projects in resource-abundant areas is unable to eradicate inequalities, which in turn perpetuates the path dependence.
    Keywords: Human Development,Inequality,Brazil,Legal Amazon,Dependency
    Date: 2018–03–30

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