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on Energy Economics |
| By: | BENKRAIEM, Ramzi; Lahiani, Amine; MILOUDI, Anthony; Shahbaz, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between S&P 500 prices, viewed as a US economic barometer, and a set of energy prices, including WTI, gasoline, heating, diesel and natural gas prices, using the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lags (QARDL) model recently developed by Cho et al. (2015). The empirical results show a negative long-and short-run relationship between WTI crude oil and Henry Hub natural gas prices on the one side and S&P 500 stock prices on the other side, only for medium and high quantiles. The findings of Wald tests indicate a nonlinear and asymmetric pass-through from energy price shocks to aggregate US stock market prices. These results show that crude oil and natural gas are key economic variables to explain short run and long run stock market dynamics. They provide further insights into how energy price shocks are transmitted to stock market prices. |
| Keywords: | Energy Price Shocks, Stock Market Prices, Quantile ARDL, Cointegration |
| JEL: | A10 |
| Date: | 2018–02–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:84778&r=ene |
| By: | NABABAN, TONGAM SIHOL |
| Abstract: | Abstract - This study aims to measure and to analyze the efficiency level of fuel oil usage in units of PT. PLN generation. The study result shows that until now the PLN is still operating in inefficiency condition, because of foil oil usage. The energy consumption level of fuel oil is less efficient compared with coal energy in generating electricity. Based on the short-term CobbDouglass analysis,the average decrease in oilfuel usage efficiency over the period 2011 – 2015 is 17.21% per year. Allegedly, even though the portion has decreaseddue to the unsustainable supply of non-fuel fuel, it is important to maintain the use of fuel oil.The government is asked to continue evaluate the use of fuel oil inputs, diversify input energy and increase efficiency in producing electricity in Indonesia. |
| Keywords: | efficiency, electrical energy, input, fuel oil, PT. PLN. |
| JEL: | D2 D24 J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:84679&r=ene |
| By: | Claudia Kettner-Marx (WIFO); Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of energy and (implicit) CO2 taxation in the EU member countries. Against the background of the EU energy taxation directives, energy and implicit CO2 tax rates in the EU countries are discussed, focussing on taxation in the transport sector as a major non-ETS emitter. Empirical evidence on the impact of energy and carbon taxes on energy use and emissions is presented and the economic and distributional effects of energy and carbon taxes are then discussed. Research on energy price elasticities suggests that energy and carbon taxation can make a significant contribution towards achieving emission reductions, particularly in the transport sector where greenhouse gas emissions continue to be on the rise in the EU. Evidence on the economic impacts of energy and carbon taxes furthermore shows that a double divided can be achieved. With respect to the distributional impacts of carbon and energy taxes evidence is, however, mixed. While empirical studies generally negate regressive effects for taxes on transport fuels, energy and carbon taxes on heating fuels tend to be found regressive. |
| Keywords: | Energy taxation, carbon taxation, EU Member States, environmental impact, macroeconomic effects, distributional effects |
| Date: | 2018–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2018:i:555&r=ene |
| By: | Apergis, Nicholas; Polemis, Michael |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates spillovers between electricity supply shocks and US growth, using monthly data from 48 US States, spanning the period January 2001-September 2016, while employs a novel strategy for electricity supply shocks based on a time-varying Bayesian panel VAR model. It accounts for the decomposition of electricity supply per fuel mixture and links its possible interactions with the US macroeconomic conditions. In that sense, the methodology models the coefficients as a stochastic function of multiple structural characteristics. The findings document that GDP growth increases after a positive electricity supply shock, irrelevant to the source of energy that generates it. |
| Keywords: | Time-varying coefficient Bayesian panel VAR; electricity shocks; macroeconomic performance; impulse responses functions; US states. |
| JEL: | C33 O44 R11 |
| Date: | 2018–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:84954&r=ene |
| By: | Sahari, Anna |
| Abstract: | This paper studies consumers' sensitivity to energy costs at the moment of making a long-term energy technology investment. The analysis exploits within-region variation in local, regulated electricity distribution prices that are very persistent over time and therefore a good measure of long-term price expectations. Price impacts are estimated on extensive administrative registry data of private persons acting as home builders in Finland during 2006-2011. The results show that electricity prices notably influence builders' heating choices, and price increases that are mostly due to taxation have induced demand for technologies based on renewable energy. However, the results on the comprehensive set of observable individual-level characteristics imply that issues related to information and credit availability may hamper price sensitivity. |
| Keywords: | elasticity, electricity, discrete choice, consumer behavior, Environment, energy and climate policy, D12, D83, Q41, R22, |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fer:wpaper:95&r=ene |
| By: | Grimm, Michael; Lenz, Luciane; Peters, Jörg; Sievert, Maximiliane |
| Abstract: | The cost of providing electricity to the unconnected 1.1 billion people in developing countries is significant. High hopes are pinned on market-based dissemination of offgrid technologies to complement the expensive extension of public grid infrastructure. In this paper, we elicit the revealed willingness-to-pay for different off-grid solar technologies in a field experiment in rural Rwanda. Our findings show that households are willing to dedicate substantial parts of their budget to electricity, but not enough to reach cost-covering prices. Randomly assigned payment periods do not alter this finding. We interpret the results from two perspectives. First, we examine whether the United Nations' universal energy access goal can be reached via unsubsidized markets. Second, in a stylized welfare cost-benefit analysis, we compare a subsidization policy for off-grid solar electrification to a grid extension policy. Our findings suggest that, for most of rural Africa, off-grid solar is the preferable technology to reach mass electrification, and that grid infrastructure should concentrate on selected prosperous regions. |
| Keywords: | public infrastructure,technology adoption,electrification,willingness-to-pay,energy access |
| JEL: | D12 H54 O13 Q28 Q41 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:745&r=ene |
| By: | Al-Sarihi, Aisha |
| Abstract: | Characterised by a fragile desert environment and high reliance on oil export revenues as their primary source of income, the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. This both urges the strengthening of non-oil economic sectors and renders oil export revenues vulnerable to the impacts of the climate change mitigation measures adopted by other countries. Moreover, reliance on oil makes economic vulnerability to oil price shocks an inevitable challenge to the region’s economic stability. This paper studies the interplay between climate change mitigation efforts and attempts to diversify GCC economies in order to identify the potential co-benefits of mainstreaming climate change measures into long-term economic planning, and to analyse the gap in addressing climate change in GCC economic diversification processes. |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:86873&r=ene |
| By: | Mukanjari, Samson (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Sterner, Thomas (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University) |
| Abstract: | The Paris Agreement was acclaimed as a milestone for climate negotiations. It has also been criticized – as too soft by environmentalists and too constraining by the current U.S. administration, which has decided to leave. The election of President Trump was itself widely interpreted as unexpected, good news for the fossil industry (and less good for the climate). We seek to evaluate the impact of global climate policy making by studying its effect on the stock market value of energy sector firms. In particular, we study the signing of the Paris Agreement and the latest U.S. presidential election. Using event study and impulse indicator saturation methods, we show that both events had only moderate effects. |
| Keywords: | Climate change; election; event study; impulse indicator saturation; Paris climate agreement; Trump. |
| JEL: | G14 Q40 Q54 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0728&r=ene |
| By: | Polemis, Michael |
| Abstract: | Remedies form an essential tool of any enforcement action and need to be devised with great caution from National Competition Authorities (NCAs). If the remedy is ineffective, the enforcement action does not reach the desired objective and resources will have been wasted. If the remedy is disproportionate, the decision is put at risk in a possible subsequent appeal. Remedies either behavioural or structural imposed by competition authorities seek to eliminate unilateral or/and coordinated effects as a result of the merger and restore competition on the relevant market(s) to the status quo ante. Moreover, remedy packages have typically included extensive structural divestments to remove competition concerns. The scope of this paper is to examine various issues relating to the imposition of remedies in merger cases focusing on the gas and electricity sectors (commodity and capacity release programmes, customer release schemes, network related remedies). This paper relies on the energy sector with a view to developing general principles for imposing effective remedies in other sectors as well. Given the nature of competition in energy markets, particularly effective remedies are those that involve gas release programmes, the sale of price-setting generation plants, network assets, and controlling stakes in merging parties’ competitors. |
| Keywords: | Merger remedies; competition; energy sector; Gas release programs; European Union |
| JEL: | G34 K21 L10 L40 |
| Date: | 2018–01–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:85180&r=ene |
| By: | Danladi Galadima, Mukhtar; Wambai Aminu, Abubakar |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates asymmetric cointegration, asymmetric adjustment, and causality between natural gas consumption and economic growth in Nigeria using the momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) model and the Granger-causality test in a momentum threshold error correction model (M-TECM). The results revealed evidence of asymmetric cointegration, asymmetric adjustment which suggests that the negative discrepancies from the equilibrium error adjust more rapidly than the positive discrepancies and that there is bidirectional causality between the two variables. The implication of the results is that a shock that decreases the impact of natural gas consumption on economic growth adjusts more rapidly than a shock that increases it and that a consistent natural gas supply increases growth and similarly a rise in growth leads to rise in natural gas consumption. Therefore, policymakers in Nigeria need to confine more attention to the shocks stemming from the decrease in natural gas consumption and the country should adopt energy exploration policies. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: Asymmetric Cointegration, Asymmetric Adjustment, Causality, Natural Gas Consumption, Economic Growth |
| JEL: | Q43 |
| Date: | 2017–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:84796&r=ene |
| By: | Christophe Muller (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, EHESS, Centrale Marseille, AMSE); Huijie Yan (CEARC, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines et Université Paris-Saclay) |
| Abstract: | The household transition from dirty to clean fuels is important because of its economic, health and environment consequences, locally, nationally and globally. In order to study fuel choices, a non-separated farm household model for fuel demands is developed. Then, discrete choice equations of fuel uses, consistent with this theoretical model, are estimated using microeconomic household panel data from rural China.The estimation results support the theoretical approach that implies that the fuel demands depend not only on income, fuel prices, and demand-side socioeconomic factors, as would occur in the standard fuel demand models in the literature, but also on food prices, agricultural assets, and original household and community characteristics that shape the household responses to market failures. Finally, we present a few policy simulations that reveal the complex substitution impact of energy price policies in China.We provide the first evidence on: price sensitivity of fuel stacking, that food prices exert some pressure on the fuel transition, the role of farm work and activity specialization in fuel choices. Policies should incorporate some of the complexity of the non-separated decisions of rural households in this context of market failures. The complex cross-price effects imply that the policy pricing mechanisms should account for all energy types and food prices. Finally, market-based policies should be coupled with policy interventions aimed at increasing the opportunity cost of dirty fuels. |
| Keywords: | fuel use, China, consumption demand, energy |
| JEL: | D11 D12 Q41 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1808&r=ene |
| By: | Nils May; Olga Chiappinelli |
| Abstract: | The transition towards low-carbon economies requires massive investments into renewable energies, which are commonly supported through regulatory frameworks. Yet, governments can have incentives - and the ability - to deviate from previously-announced support once those investments have been made, which can deter investments. We analyze a renewable energy regulation game, apply a model of time-inconsistency to renewable energy policy and derive under what conditions governments have incentives to deviate from their commitments. We analyze the effects of various support policies and deployment targets and explain why Spain conducted retrospective changes in the period 2010-2013 whereas Germany stuck to its commitments. |
| Keywords: | Time-Inconsistency, Regulation, Targets, Renewable Energy Policy, Investments |
| JEL: | Q42 Q55 O38 C73 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1726&r=ene |
| By: | Ivan Faiella (Bank of Italy); Luciano Lavecchia (Bank of Italy and Ministero dello sviluppo economico); Marco Borgarello (Ricerca sul sistema energetico) |
| Abstract: | We calculate the demand for heating at the household level by integrating the technological data on the heating needs of different types of buildings with the information available in Istat’s Household Budget Survey. This new dataset is used to estimate a measure of energy poverty (EP) that is not conditioned by household preferences. The new measure identifies households suffering from EP as those that become “poor” – according to Istat’s relative poverty measure – after purchasing a minimum basket of energy services. Given the high granularity of the information used, the proposed threshold could be used as part of Istat’s revised absolute poverty measure. This also contributes to the monitoring and implementation of the policies that each EU member state should set up against EP as required under the Energy Union. |
| Keywords: | energy poverty, energy demand, inequality |
| JEL: | D10 Q41 I32 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_404_17&r=ene |
| By: | Salomé Bakaloglou (CSTB-Université de Montpellier-Chaire économie du climat); Dorothée Charlier (Institut de Recherche en Gestion et Économie (IREGE) Institut de Management Université de Savoie Mont Blanc) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this research is to understand the weight of preference heterogeneity in explaining energy consumption in French homes. Using a discrete-continuous model and the conditional mixed-process estimator (CMP) allows us to tackle two potential endogeneities in residential energy consumption: energy prices and the choice of equipment. As a major contribution, we provide evidence that preferences for comfort over energy savings do have significant direct and indirect impacts on energy consumption, especially for high-income households. Preferring comfort over economy or one additional degree of heating implies an average energy overconsumption of 10% and 7.8% respectively, up to 36% for high-income households. Our results strengthen the belief that household heterogeneity is a substantial factor in explaining energy consumption and could have meaningful implications for the design of public policy tools aimed at reducing energy consumption in the residential sector |
| Keywords: | residential energy consumption, household preferences, discrete-continuous choice method, conditional mixed process, |
| JEL: | Q41 D12 C26 C21 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2018.05&r=ene |
| By: | Hoai-Son Nguyen (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - University of sciences and technologies of hanoi, ABIES Doctoral School); Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - University of sciences and technologies of hanoi) |
| Abstract: | Household electricity consumption potentially offers economies of scale, since lighting, cooling or cooking can be shared among household members. This idea needs to be tested empirically. Under an increasing block tariff schedule the marginal and average price of electricity increases with total consumption. Does this effect offset economies of scale in the larger families? This paper uses data from Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) in 2010, 2012 and 2014 to investigate whether there are economies of scale for Vietnam household electricity consumption in that period. The data will be tested formally by an OLS model and checked robustness by visualization of local linear regressions. Estimated results and robustness check confirm that in general, economies of scale do exist for household electricity consumption in Vietnam from 2010-2014. |
| Keywords: | electricity use,increasing block tariffs,household economies of scale |
| Date: | 2018–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01714899&r=ene |
| By: | Joseph E. Gagnon (Peterson Institute for International Economics) |
| Abstract: | Many countries have squandered their natural resource endowments. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank routinely hector developing economies to save and invest more of their revenues from resources such as oil and gold for the benefit of future generations after the resources run out. But, can a country save too much of its resource revenues? Gagnon argues that since the first capital transfers to its Government Pension Fund Global in 1996, Norway has saved more than was needed to raise consumption of all generations equally. Norway’s excess saving imposes a cost on the rest of the world during periods of weak aggregate demand and ultralow interest rates. Gagnon proposes a counterfactual saving policy that would have increased Norway’s household consumption by nearly 9 percent on average from 1996 through 2017. The proposed policy would have reduced Norway’s current account surplus by more than one-third, or $13 billion per year on average, from 1996 through 2017. Even now, Norway could raise current consumption by more than US$2,000 per capita, while keeping the contribution of oil wealth to future generations equally large. |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb18-7&r=ene |
| By: | Inácio Araúgo (Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora); Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Amir B. Ferreira Neto (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Fernando Perobelli (Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora) |
| Abstract: | The interest in this paper lies in the environmental costs of the European Union (EU). EU membership requires a series of economic and political changes that should impact the country’s production and consumption structures and its trade relationships. These, in turn, will affect CO2 emissions sources and levels. This is especially true for the former Soviet Union countries that recently joined the EU, given the difference in their levels of development and production structure.Using a structural decomposition analysis we are able to quantify the main drivers of changes in emissions differentiating six components, namely: emissions intensity, industrial structure and sourcing,consumer preferences, final demand sourcing and consumption level. Grouping the countries into five clubs, New European Union countries, Old European Union countries, the United States of America, China, and the Rest of the World, we measure trading pattern changes and their impact on CO2 emission levels. |
| Keywords: | CO2,Emissions, European Union, Input-Output Analysis, Structural Decomposition Analysis |
| JEL: | P28 R15 Q56 |
| Date: | 2018–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rri:wpaper:2018wp04&r=ene |
| By: | Manuel Nicklich (FFJ - Fondation France-Japon de l'EHESS - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales); Jörg Sydow (FFJ - Fondation France-Japon de l'EHESS - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales) |
| Abstract: | The Fukushima disaster of 2011 has changed the perspective on renewable energies, not least in Japan. Although the production of renewable energies has since then continuously increased in that country, too, Fukushima seems to have had a greater impact on other countries such as Germany, for example. Given the insight that emerging fields often form and change around particular events that create opportunities, we see institutional change in the field of Japanese energy production taking place. In particular, we are interested to learn about the scope, pace and trajectory of this change, how it is brought about, and whether this will result in more organizational diversity. Preliminary results show that there has been a rather endogenous change within the field of the Japanese energy sector, which was first and foremost initiated and managed by the incumbents of the field, thereby trying to preserve their position. This, however, might explain that change within the Japanese energy sector is most likely to remain incremental rather than transformative, also with regard to the organization of value creation and work. |
| Keywords: | field,incumbent,institution,Japan,persistence,renewable energy,wind power,institutional change |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01718351&r=ene |
| By: | Mathias Kirchner (WIFO); Mark Sommer (WIFO); Claudia Kettner-Marx (WIFO); Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig (WIFO); Katharina Köberl (WIFO); Kurt Kratena (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | We assess distributive, macroeconomic, and CO2 emission impacts of CO2 tax schemes in Austria by applying the macroeconomic input-output model DYNK[AUT]. The tax schemes analysed focus primarily on CO2 emissions not covered by the European Emission Trading System (ETS), applying different CO2 tax rates as well as tax compensation schemes. We perform comparative scenario analysis for our model's base year (i.e., short-term impacts). Our model simulations indicate that – without tax compensation – impacts on households can be regressive if measured as tax burden relative to income, and are found to be rather proportional if measured as tax burden relative to expenditure or as changes in total expenditure and income. Lower income households benefit more from tax compensations (lump sum payments), i.e., CO2 taxes with compensation measures for households lead to progressive tax burden impacts. Energy-related CO2 emissions decrease quite substantially in non-ETS sectors, although households react inelastic. Value added in most non-ETS industry and service sectors declines only slightly without tax compensation and commodity import shares are hardly affected. Decreasing employers' social contribution (i.e., lowering labour costs) mitigates negative impacts in most non-ETS industry and service sectors. GDP decreases very moderately without tax recycling, depending on the tax rate. Employment effects are similar but smaller. Tax recycling leads to negligible GDP impacts and increases employment. Our simulations thus suggest that CO2 taxes could be a crucial and socially acceptable element within a comprehensive set of policy instruments in order to contribute to achieving greenhouse-gas emission targets for non-ETS sectors in Austria. |
| Keywords: | climate change, CO2 taxes, distributive impacts, macroeconomic modelling |
| Date: | 2018–02–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2018:i:558&r=ene |
| By: | Lisa CHAUVET (IRD-DIAL); Alvaro DE MIGUEL TORRES (Paris School of Economics.); Alexa TIEMANN (OECD) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of being located in areas with higher availability of electricity on manufacturing firm profits in Myanmar. Using a survey of 497 manufacturing firms conducted in 2014 and covering the whole territory of Myanmar, we investigate whether firms belonging to industries that tend to make more intensive use of electricity show better performance if such firms are located in areas with higher availability of electricity. We find that electricity provided by the national power grid tends to have a positive impact on manufacturing firm profits. Results are robust to reducing the sample to firms that could not have chosen their location endogenously, as well as to the use of an instrumental variable. |
| JEL: | H4 O13 O14 L60 |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fdi:wpaper:4195&r=ene |
| By: | Nguyen, Hieu Trung; Battula, Swathi; Takkala, Rohit Reddy; Wang, Zhaoyu; Tesfatsion, Leigh |
| Abstract: | The increasing deployment of distributed energy resources (DERs) is disrupting every aspect of power system operations, from retail distribution to wholesale production and transmission. This paper reports on the development of an agentbased test system enabling the study of new transactive energy system (TES) designs to ensure the reliable efficient operation of integrated transmission and distribution (ITD) systems with growing DER penetration. This ITD test system is used to explore the ability of a non-profit Distribution System Operator (DSO), participating within an ITD system, to use an innovative TES design to manage the power usage of DER devices in accordance with the local goals and constraints of DER owners, and to extract flexible ancillary services from DER devices in return for appropriate market-based compensation. |
| Date: | 2018–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genstf:201802280800001041&r=ene |
| By: | Miroslava Zavadska (Dublin Institute of Technology); Lucía Morales (Dublin Institute of Technology); Joseph Coughlan (Maynooth University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the efficiency of oil price behaviour during times of crisis using traditional variance-ratio tests in combination with more recent innovations such as wild bootstrapping and simulation methods. Three main oil indices were chosen: Brent, WTI and Dubai crude, in order to consider efficiency across the different oil price regimes during times of crisis. Daily data from January 1986 to September 2016 was used, and moving windows of 2, 5 and 10 years were integrated into the methodologies applied. The results were mixed across the data series and the windows showing that the different prices were not efficient over the same periods. This has implications for how we view price efficiency in oil markets and consequent implications for market regulations and investor decision making during times of crisis. |
| Keywords: | Energy, Crude Oil Markets, Spot and Futures Prices, Shock periods, Variance Ratio Tests, Efficiency, Decision making. |
| JEL: | E37 G01 Q47 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:5908091&r=ene |
| By: | Michaël GOUJON (University of Auvergne); Alexandre K. MAGNAN (Iddri) |
| Abstract: | La science du climat est désormais claire sur un point au moins : si les efforts d’atténuation des émissions de gaz à effet de serre sont plus que jamais nécessaires pour limiter l’ampleur du changement climatique sur le(s) siècle(s) à venir, celui-ci est désormais partiellement irréversible. Cela signifie concrètement qu’une partie de ses impacts est inévitable. Même si l’on a encore du mal à préciser la fréquence, l’intensité et la répartition géographique de ces impacts futurs sur les territoires, ces derniers vont avoir à faire face à une modification des conditions climatiques et environnementales, lesquelles vont nécessairement remettre en cause les modèles de développement actuels. Dès lors, l’adaptation au changement climatique s’impose comme étant une stratégie tout aussi prioritaire que l’atténuation des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, ce qu’a d’ailleurs entériné l’Accord de Paris à l’échelle globale (Magnan et Ribera, 2016). Anticiper n’est donc plus une simple option, mais une condition nécessaire au développement durable des territoires, à quelque échelle que ce soit. La question se pose alors de savoir comment anticiper pour s’adapter (Tubiana et al 2010). Étant donné que le but ultime de l’adaptation est de réduire la vulnérabilité sur le long terme, une première partie de réponse réside dans la manière dont on peut concrètement appréhender la vulnérabilité des territoires au changement climatique (voir par ex. Nguyen et al 2016).Ce document conjoint vise à présenter deux approches pour appréhender cette vulnérabilité et développées pour l’une par la Ferdi (« vulnérabilité structurelle »), pour l’autre par l’Iddri (« trajectoires de vulnérabilité »). L’objectif est, à la croisée de ces deux approches, de proposer une réflexion en termes de pistes d’adaptation, à la fois à l’échelle locale dans le cadre des politiques publiques territoriales, et à l’échelle globale dans le cadre des négociations internationales au sein de la Convention Cadre des Nations Unies sur le Changement Climatique (CCNUCC). De sorte à être aussi concrète que possible, la démarche est appliquée à une étude de cas sur laquelle la Ferdi comme l’Iddri ont développé une expertise, à savoir l’île de la Réunion (sud-ouest de l’océan Indien), et plus précisément la situation de ses littoraux face aux risques liés à la mer. |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fdi:wpaper:4203&r=ene |
| By: | Michaël GOUJON (Université Clermont Auvergne); Alexandre K. MAGNAN (Iddri) |
| Abstract: | La science du climat est désormais claire sur un point au moins : si les efforts d’atténuation des émissions de gaz à effet de serre sont plus que jamais nécessaires pour limiter l’ampleur du changement climatique sur le(s) siècle(s) à venir, celui-ci est désormais partiellement irréversible. Cela signifie concrètement qu’une partie de ses impacts est inévitable. Même si l’on a encore du mal à préciser la fréquence, l’intensité et la répartition géographique de ces impacts futurs sur les territoires, ces derniers vont avoir à faire face à une modification des conditions climatiques et environnementales, lesquelles vont nécessairement remettre en cause les modèles de développement actuels. Dès lors, l’adaptation au changement climatique s’impose comme étant une stratégie tout aussi prioritaire que l’atténuation des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, ce qu’a d’ailleurs entériné l’Accord de Paris à l’échelle globale (Magnan et Ribera, 2016). Anticiper n’est donc plus une simple option, mais une condition nécessaire au développement durable des territoires, à quelque échelle que ce soit. La question se pose alors de savoir comment anticiper pour s’adapter (Tubiana et al 2010). Étant donné que le but ultime de l’adaptation est de réduire la vulnérabilité sur le long terme, une première partie de réponse réside dans la manière dont on peut concrètement appréhender la vulnérabilité des territoires au changement climatique (voir par ex. Nguyen et al 2016).Ce document conjoint vise à présenter deux approches pour appréhender cette vulnérabilité et développées pour l’une par la Ferdi (« vulnérabilité structurelle »), pour l’autre par l’Iddri (« trajectoires de vulnérabilité »). L’objectif est, à la croisée de ces deux approches, de proposer une réflexion en termes de pistes d’adaptation, à la fois à l’échelle locale dans le cadre des politiques publiques territoriales, et à l’échelle globale dans le cadre des négociations internationales au sein de la Convention Cadre des Nations Unies sur le Changement Climatique (CCNUCC). De sorte à être aussi concrète que possible, la démarche est appliquée à une étude de cas sur laquelle la Ferdi comme l’Iddri ont développé une expertise, à savoir l’île de la Réunion (sud-ouest de l’océan Indien), et plus précisément la situation de ses littoraux face aux risques liés à la mer. |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fdi:wpaper:4201&r=ene |
| By: | Pierre-Alain Pionnier (OECD); Shunta Yamaguchi (OECD) |
| Abstract: | Statistics on the level and the evolution of stocks of natural assets play a key role in sustainability analyses of economic growth. This paper can be seen as a set of technical guidelines to support the compilation of mineral and energy resource accounts according to the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) 2012. The first part of this paper explains how the coexisting classifications of mineral and energy resources relate to each other and to the classification advocated by the SEEA 2012. It also describes the OECD database on stocks and flows of mineral and energy resources in physical units. Monetary values can be used to compare stocks and flows of heterogeneous assets, and also to characterise the economic benefits of these assets, two tasks that cannot be completed by using physical data only. The valuation of mineral and energy resource stocks poses specific challenges, which are described in the second part of this paper. |
| Date: | 2018–03–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envddd:2018/03-en&r=ene |
| By: | Febi Wulandari; Dorothea Schäfer; Andreas Strephan; Chen Sun |
| Abstract: | This study analyses how liquidity risk affects bonds’ yield spreads after controlling for credit risk, bond-specific characteristics and macroeconomic variables. Using two liquidity estimates, LOT liquidity and the bid-ask spread, we find that, in particular, the LOT liquidity measure has explanatory power for the yield spread of green bonds. Overall, however, the impact of LOT decreases over time, implying that, nowadays liquidity risk is negligible for green bonds. |
| Keywords: | Green Bond, Liquidity Risk, Yield Spread, Sustainable Investment, Fixed Income Security, Financial Innovation |
| JEL: | G12 G32 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1728&r=ene |
| By: | Awa DIOUF (CERDI Université Clermont Auvergne - CNRS); Bertrand LAPORTE (Université Clermont Auvergne – CERDI) |
| Abstract: | The challenge of developing countries that have natural resources is to attract international investors for the valuation of that wealth and to get a « fair » share of oil revenue. So, the « design » of the oil tax system determines the level of resource exploitation and the oil rent-sharing. The analysis of the Senegal oil tax regime is based on the assessment of oil revenue sharing between the government and the operating companies for a 2014 oil discovery, according to two types of contract: a concession contract and a production sharing contract. Regardless of the contract, average effective tax rates in Senegal are low, compared to other African producer countries, and the taxation regime is regressive. Developing countries must, therefore, be vigilant in defining the applicable tax regime, both for the oil sector and, more generally, for extractive industries. The choice of the production sharing contract is certainly the most widespread, but it does not guarantee either the tax system progressivity or a sufficient government take. The taxation rules that specify the production sharing contract must, therefore, be established by skilfully combining income-based taxes and production-based taxes to define a progressive and sufficiently remunerative tax system for both parties, the state and the investor. The balance between these two types of taxation should be systematically calibrated using a rent-sharing model. For Senegal, in particular, it involves a revision of the oil code in force. |
| Keywords: | extractive industries, oil contract, government take, Senegal, Developing countries |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fdi:wpaper:4153&r=ene |
| By: | Irene Burgers; Stefan E. Weishaar |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to map legal aspects that should be taken into account in designing a carbon tax. The survey of the legal literature concludes that many different aspects have to be taken into account in designing a carbon tax, both with respect to the kind of legal instruments to be used and the actual design of the tax. It is analysed how these legal concepts relate to economic theory. This overview of legal considerations may help in creating a sustainable, effective and efficient regulatory system for reducing emissions, as carbon taxes can play a crucial role for achieving long-term emission reductions. |
| Keywords: | climate policy, carbon pricing, instrument choice, environmental tax reform, law and legislation |
| Date: | 2018–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2018:i:559&r=ene |
| By: | Miroslava Zavadska (Dublin Institute of Technology); Lucía Morales (Dublin Institute of Technology); Joseph Coughlan (Maynooth University) |
| Abstract: | There is significant variety in the range of quantitative methods used to analyse problems in commodity business finance. This study focuses on how these methods can be to aid the understanding of how crude oil spot and futures markets behave during major shock events that are characterised by high levels of uncertainty and risk to businesses that rely on commodities to function. This paper uses the context of the relationships and behaviour of spot and futures prices of major oil benchmarks such as Brent crude oil (the European crude oil benchmark), the West Texas Intermediate (the US benchmark) and the Dubai crude oil (the Middle East benchmark). The research methodologies under consideration are of a great value for businesses, and in particular to practitioners, as they help them by offering in depth analysis of oil price behaviour. This aids decision making for example on topics such as strategic investment and sourcing of raw materials. Through integrating different methodologies, this paper also contributes towards the operationalisation of behavioural finance theory. This relatively new theory considers that the markets are not as predictable as once thought and decisions are really made based on how we, as humans, make decisions. The use of multiple methodologies contributes to capture the variance that occurs across the market under behavioural finance theory. |
| Keywords: | Business finance, Mixed method research, Commodity, Energy, Shock periods, Cointegration, Causality, Volatility, Efficiency, Decision making. |
| JEL: | E37 G01 Q47 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:5908090&r=ene |
| By: | Nadia Boussaha; Faycal Hamdi; Saïd Souam |
| Abstract: | The contribution of this paper is twofold. In a first step, we propose the so called Periodic Multivariate Autoregressive Stochastic Volatility (PV ARSV) model, that allows the Granger causality in volatility in order to capture periodicity in stochastic conditional variance. After a thorough discussion, we provide some probabilistic properties of this class of models. We thus propose two methods for the estimation problem, one based on the periodic Kalman filter and the other on the particle filter and smoother with Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm. In a second step, we propose an empirical application by modeling oil price and three exchange rates time series. It turns out that our modeling gives very accurate results and has a well volatility forecasting performance. |
| Keywords: | Multivariate periodic stochastic volatility; periodic stationarity; periodic Kalman filter; particle filtering; exchange rates; Saharan Blend oil. |
| JEL: | C32 C53 F31 G17 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2018-14&r=ene |
| By: | Harold, Jason; Bertsch, Valentin; Lawrence, Thomas; Hall, Magie |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp583&r=ene |
| By: | Mark Beeson |
| Abstract: | China has assumed a crucial importance in debates about climate change mitigation. On the one hand, China is one of the largest emitters of greenhouse gasses and pollution. On the other, it has invested more in renewable energy than any other country and is making real efforts to address the consequences of rapid industrialisation. There are three key questions for students of comparative political economy that emerge from the Chinese experience: first, what is the relationship between economic development and authoritarian rule? Second, what role has China's distinct social and political system played in creating and addressing environmental problems? Third, what domestic and international implications does the ‘China model’ have? In short, will China's authoritarian leaders be able to manage the expectations of its own people and those of the so-called international community? This article considers the often paradoxical and contradictory nature of the authoritarian Chinese government's current environmental policies and suggests that while they may have some success at the domestic level, they may still be an obstacle to international cooperation. |
| Keywords: | China, environmental policy, authoritarianism, policy implementation |
| Date: | 2017–12–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:appswp:201803&r=ene |
| By: | Oberst, Christian A. (German Economic Institute (IW)); Schmitz, Hendrik (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the effect of residential energy prosuming on households’ energy consumption behavior with the objective to find evidence for a “prosumer rebound effect” on energy consumption. Prosuming is the partial self-consumption of distributed energy production. We hypothesize that prosumer households are systematically different from consumer households regarding their housing situation and socio-economic characteristics. We address sample selection bias by using a quasi-experimental technique called propensity score matching as our identification strategy. We employ data from a nationwide online survey among homeowners in Germany. While the data shows a correlation of lower energy consumption and prosumer households, we find no significant difference of energy consumption behavior between prosumers and non-prosumers when controlling for sample selection bias. Instead, the lower energy consumption of prosumer households is attributed to more energy-efficient technical equipment and thus to purchasing behavior. Our results show neither evidence for negative nor positive externalities of prosuming on residential energy consumption behavior and therefore we conclude that there is no need for additional governmental measures in the form of taxation or subsidies to address behavioral changes of energy prosuming. |
| Keywords: | Prosumer Households; Rebound; Propensity Score Matching; Residential Energy Consumption; Energy Efficiency; Renewable Energies |
| JEL: | C14 D12 O33 Q42 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2016_024&r=ene |
| By: | Halkos, George; Petrou, Kleoniki Natalia |
| Abstract: | Waste generation and management may be considered as either a by-product of economic actions or even used as input to economic activity like energy recovery. Every country produces different amounts of municipal solid waste (MSW) and with different composition. This paper deals with the efficiency of 28 EU Member States for the years 2008, 2010 and 2012 by employing Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and by using eight parameters, namely waste generation, employment rate, capital formation, GDP, population density and for the first time SOx, NOx and GHG emissions for the relevant countries. With these parameters six environmental production frameworks have been designed each with different inputs and outputs. The empirical analysis shows that overall the more efficient countries according to all frameworks include Belgium, Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway. These results were then reviewed against the recycling rate of each country for the examined time periods. The recycling rate actually depicts the DEA results, namely more efficient countries seem to have a higher recycling rate too. Moreover the DEA efficiency results were contrasted to the overall treatment options used in the countries under consideration. Overall it is noticed that countries employing all four treatment options with high use of more sustainable ones and decrease in the use of landfill are the ones that also proved to be efficient according to DEA. |
| Keywords: | Environmental efficiency; waste generation; EU Member States; Data Envelopment Analysis; sustainability; environmental policy. |
| JEL: | C18 O13 O52 Q50 Q53 Q56 R11 |
| Date: | 2018–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:84590&r=ene |
| By: | Tiziano Distefano (Department of Environmental, Land and Infrastructure Engineering, Politecnico di Torino, Italy); Simone D'Alessandro (University of Pisa, Department of Economics and Management, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Our work contributes to explain the origin of the failure or success of international environmental agreements (IEA) and their relation with the actual aggregate global level of greenhouse gas emissions, by including climate risks, cross-country inequalities, and consumer's environmental awareness. We introduce a novel multi-scale framework, composed by two tied games, to show under which conditions a country is able to fulfil the IEA: (i) a one-shot 2x2 Game, with asymmetric countries that negotiate on the maximum share of emissions, and (ii) an Evolutionary Game which describes the economic structure through the interaction of households and rms' strategies. |
| Keywords: | International environmental agreements, asymmetry, evolutionary process, Multi-level perspective, climate change |
| JEL: | C71 C72 C73 H41 F53 Q20 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:0418&r=ene |
| By: | Oliveira, André Barbosa; Pereira, Pedro L. Valls |
| Abstract: | O petróleo é uma importante commodity energética, sendo insumo em diferentes atividades, possuindo efeito direto ou indireto sobre vários setores na economia. Esta commodity tem preços instáveis, resultado de choques geopolíticos bem como de choques de mercado numa perspectiva de inovação tecnológica na área de energia e mudança de padrões de consumo. Neste trabalho estudamos a volatilidade das principais cotações de referência do petróleo com três modelos: GARCH; GARCH com mudança de regime (MS-GARCH); e modelo de variância incondicional com mudança de regime (MSIH). Os modelos são comparados em termos de desempenho preditivo e valor em risco fora da amostra de estimação. Podemos identificar diferentes regimes sobre as cotações do petróleo, com melhores desempenhos preditivos e no valor em risco para os modelos com mudança de regime markoviana. |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:472&r=ene |