nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2018‒01‒22
forty papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Equity Effects in Energy Regulation By Carolyn Fischer; William A. Pizer
  2. Le droit à l’énergie : dangereuse chimère ou juste exigence ? By Minh Ha-Duong
  3. The health benefits of a targeted cash transfer: the UK Winter Fuel Payment By Thomas Crossley; Federico Zilio
  4. The use of renewable energy in Vietnam – status quo and challenges By An Truong
  5. Real Options Analysis of Renewable Energy Investment Scenarios in the Philippines By Agaton, Casper
  6. Comparing the Forecasting Performances of Linear Models for Electricity Prices with High RES Penetration By Angelica Gianfreda; Francesco Ravazzolo; Luca Rossini
  7. An Equilibrium Model of the Market for Bitcoin Mining By Julien Prat; Walter Benjamin
  8. Price convergence within and between the Italian electricity day-ahead and dispatching services markets By Massimiliano Caporin; Fulvio Fontini; Paolo Santucci De Magistris
  9. Power Sector Reform and Corruption: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa By Imam, M.; Jamasb, T.; Llorca, M.; Llorca, M.
  10. Planeación Óptima de la Red de Transmisión Eléctrica de Baja California Sur. By Guerrero, Daniel; Rosellon, Juan
  11. Electricity Consumption And Economic Growth: New Evidence From Twelve Countries By Chirwa, Themba G; Odhiambo, Nicholas M.
  12. A Consumer Behavior Based Approach to Multi-Stage EV Charging Station Placement By Chao Luo; Yih-Fang Huang; Vijay Gupta
  13. Placement of EV Charging Stations --- Balancing Benefits among Multiple Entities By Chao Luo; Yih-Fang Huang; Vijay Gupta
  14. Stochastic Dynamic Pricing for EV Charging Stations with Renewables Integration and Energy Storage By Chao Luo; Yih-Fang Huang; Vijay Gupta
  15. Dynamic Pricing and Energy Management Strategy for EV Charging Stations under Uncertainties By Chao Luo; Yih-Fang Huang; Vijay Gupta
  16. Environmental Externalities and Free-riding in the Household By Kelsey Jack; Seema Jayachandran; Sarojini Rao
  17. The energy price - commodity output relationship and the commodity price - commodity output relationship in a three-factor, two-good general equilibrium trade model with imported energy By Yoshiaki Nakada
  18. Working Paper 08-17 - Vehicle stock modelling in long term projections - Survey of the literature By Laurent Franckx
  19. Does " Driving Range " really matter? By Hidetada Higashi
  20. Who are bike sharing schemes members and do they travel differently? The case of Lyon’s “Velo’v” scheme By Charles Raux; Ayman Zoubir; Mirkan Geyik
  21. Pass-Through of Input Cost Shocks Under Imperfect Competition: Evidence from the U.S. Fracking Boom By Erich Muehlegger; Richard L. Sweeney
  22. Costs of Inefficient Regulation: Evidence from the Bakken By Gabriel E. Lade; Ivan Rudik
  23. Gazprom and the complexity of the EU gas market: a strategy to define By Sadek Boussena; Catherine Locatelli
  24. Crude Oil Price Differentials and Pipeline Infrastructure By Shaun McRae
  25. Resource Abundance and Life Expectancy By Bahram Sanginabadi
  26. Fresh Air Eases Work – The Effect of Air Quality on Individual Investor Activity By Steffen Meyer; Michaela Pagel
  27. Subways and Urban Air Pollution By Nicolas Gendron-Carrier; Marco Gonzalez-Navarro; Stefano Polloni; Matthew A. Turner
  28. The Effect of Air Pollution on Migration: Evidence from China By Shuai Chen; Paulina Oliva; Peng Zhang
  29. Firms and Collective Reputation: the Volkswagen Emissions Scandal as a Case Study By Bachmann, Rüdiger; Ehrlich, Gabriel; Ruzic, Dimitrije
  31. La taxe carbone dans une économie d'inspiration keynésienne By Nicolas Piluso; Edwin Le Héron
  32. Impacts of nationally determined contributions on 2030 global greenhouse gas emissions: uncertainty analysis and distribution of emissions By Hélène Benveniste; Olivier Boucher; Céline Guivarch; Hervé Le Treut; Patrick Criqui
  33. Working Paper 10-17 - Belgium’s Carbon Footprint - Calculations based on a national accounts consistent global multi-regional input-output table By Caroline Hambye; Bart Hertveldt; Bernhard Klaus Michel
  34. Climate Change Awareness and Willingness to Pay for its Mitigation: Evidence from the UK By Monica Novackova; Richard S.J. Tol
  35. Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks By Christiane J.S. Baumeister; James D. Hamilton
  36. National Carbon Reduction Commitments: Identifying the Most Consensual Burden Sharing By Gaël Giraud; Hadrien Lantremange; Emeric Nicolas; Olivier Rech
  37. How certain are we about the certainty-equivalent longterm social discount rate? By Freeman, Mark C.; Groom, Ben
  38. Adverse Welfare Shocks and Pro-Environmental Behaviour: Evidence from the Global Economic Crisis By Ivlevs, Artjoms
  39. Two scenarios for carbon capture and storage in Vietnam By Minh Ha-Duong; Hoang Anh Trinh Nguyen
  40. Climate change and the macro-economy: a critical review By Batten, Sandra

  1. By: Carolyn Fischer; William A. Pizer
    Abstract: Some choices in energy regulation, particularly those that price emissions, raise household energy prices more than others. Those choices can lead to a large variation in burden both across and within income groups because of wide variation in household energy use. The latter, within-income group variation can be particularly hard to remedy. In this paper, we review alternative welfare perspectives that give rise to equity concerns within income groups (“horizontal equity”) and consider how they might influence the evaluation of environmental policies. In particular, we look for sufficient statistics that policymakers could use to make these evaluations. We use Consumer Expenditure Survey data to generate such statistics for a hypothetical carbon price versus tradable carbon performance standard applied to the electric power sector. We show how horizontal equity concerns could overwhelm efficiency concerns in this context.
    JEL: D61 D63 Q48 Q52 Q58
    Date: 2017–11
  2. By: Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Date: 2017–09–29
  3. By: Thomas Crossley (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Fiscal Studies, University of Essex); Federico Zilio (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Institute for Social & Economic Research)
    Abstract: Each year the UK records 25,000 or more excess winter deaths, primarily among the elderly. A key policy response is the “Winter Fuel Payment” (WFP), a labelled but unconditional cash transfer to households with a member above the Female State Pension Age. The WFP has been shown to raise fuel spending among eligible households. We examine the causal effect of the WFP on health outcomes, including self-reports of chest infection, measured hypertension and biomarkers of infection and inflammation. We find a robust and statistically significant six percentage point reduction in the incidence of high levels of serum fibrinogen. Reductions in other disease markers point to health benefits, but the estimated effects are not robustly statistically significant.
    Keywords: benefits, health, biomarkers, heating, regression discontinuity
    JEL: H51 I12
    Date: 2017–10–18
  4. By: An Truong (CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - University of sciences and technologies of hanoi)
    Date: 2017–11–06
  5. By: Agaton, Casper
    Abstract: With the continuously rising energy demand and much dependence on imported fossil fuels, the Philippines is developing more sustainable sources of energy. Renewable energy seems to be a better alternative solution to meet the country’s energy supply and security concerns. Despite its huge potential, investment in renewable energy sources is challenged with competitive prices of fossil fuels, high start-up cost for renewables, and lower feed-in-tariff rates for renewables. To address these problems, this study aims to analyze energy investment scenarios in the Philippines using real options approach. This compares the attractiveness of investing in renewable energy over continue using coal for electricity generation under uncertainties in coal prices, investments cost, electricity prices, growth of investment in renewables, and imposing carbon tax for using fossil fuels.
    Keywords: real options approach; investment under uncertainty; dynamic optimization; renewable energy
    JEL: C61 G17 Q42 Q47
    Date: 2017–12–30
  6. By: Angelica Gianfreda; Francesco Ravazzolo; Luca Rossini
    Abstract: This paper compares alternative univariate versus multivariate models, probabilistic versus Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive specifications for hourly day-ahead electricity prices, with and without renewable energy sources. The accuracy of point and density forecasts are inspected in four main European markets (Germany, Denmark, Italy and Spain) characterized by different levels of renewable energy power generation. Our results show that the Bayesian VAR specifications with exogenous variables dominate other multivariate and univariate specifications, in terms of both point and density forecasting.
    Date: 2018–01
  7. By: Julien Prat (CREST; CNRS; Université Paris- Saclay; CESifo; IZA); Walter Benjamin (CREST; Université Paris-Saclay)
    Abstract: We propose a model which uses the Bitcoin/US dollar exchange rate to predict the computing power of the Bitcoin network. We show that free entry places an upper-bound on mining revenues and we devise a structural framework to measure its value. Calibrating the model’s parameters allows us to accurately forecast the evolution of the network computing power over time. We establish the accuracy of the model through out-of-sample tests and investigation of the entry rule.
    Keywords: Bitcoin; Blockchain; Miners; Industry Dynamics
  8. By: Massimiliano Caporin (University of Padova); Fulvio Fontini (University of Padova); Paolo Santucci De Magistris (Unviersity of Aarhus)
    Abstract: In the paper we study the convergence of prices in the electricity markets, both at the day-ahead level and for the dispatching services (such as balancing and reserves). We introduce two concepts of price convergence, the convergence of zonal prices within each market (within convergence), and the converge of prices in a given zone between the two markets (between convergence). We provide an extensive analysis based on Italian data of within and between convergence. The zonal time-series of the prices are evaluated, seasonally adjusted and tested to assess their long-run properties. This evaluation induces us to focus on the behavior of the three largest and most interconnected continental zones of Italy (North, Center-North and Center-South). The fractional cointegration methodology used in the analysis shows the existence of long-run relationships among the series used in our study. This signals the existence of price convergence within markets, even though for the dispatching services market the evidence is less robust. The analysis also shows the existence of price convergence between markets in each zone, even though the evidence is more clearly armed for the North (the largest Italian zone), less so for the other two zones. Results are interpreted on the basis of the characteristics of the markets and the zones.
    Keywords: zonal prices, convergence between zones, convergence within zones, fractional cointegration, long-run equilibrium.
    JEL: Q40 Q41 C32 C51
    Date: 2017–12
  9. By: Imam, M.; Jamasb, T.; Llorca, M.; Llorca, M.
    Abstract: In order to reduce the influence of corruption on electricity sector performance, most Sub-Saharan African countries have implemented sector reforms. However, after nearly two and half decades of reforms, there is no evidence whether these reforms have mitigated or exacerbated corruption. Neither is there evidence of performance improvements of reforms in terms of technical, economic or welfare impact. This paper aims to fill this gap. We use a dynamic panel estimator with a novel panel data set of 47 Sub-Saharan African countries from 2002 to 2013. We analyse the impact of corruption and two key aspects of electricity reform model - creations of independent regulatory agencies and private sector participation - on three performance indicators: technical efficiency, access to electricity and income. We find that corruption can significantly reduce technical efficiency of the sector and constrain the efforts to increase access to electricity and national income. However, these adverse effects are reduced where independent regulatory agencies are established and privatisation is implemented. Our results suggest that well-designed reforms not only boost economic performance of the sector directly, but also indirectly reduce the negative effects of macro level institutional deficiencies such as corruption on micro and macro indicators of performance.
    Keywords: Panel data, dynamic GMM, electricity sector reform, corruption, Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: Q48 D02 K23 D73
    Date: 2018–01–12
  10. By: Guerrero, Daniel; Rosellon, Juan
    Abstract: We analyze the effects on social welfare of two different processes of transmission network expansion planning. A first model (integrated model) considers decisions on electricity generation and transmission as interdependent activities. A second model (disintegrated model) assumes that these decisions are independent, so that network expansion follows an exogenous process. This duality of approaches has been subject of academic and policy discussions in diverse systems, as it is the case of the electricity system in Germany. These two models are simulated for the transmission network in Southern Baja California, Mexico. This is a self-contained system with relatively few nodes and links that allows the development of a realistic study on the characteristics of efficient expansion of the electricity grid. We demonstrate that the integrated approach to expanding transmission networks results in higher levels of social welfare for different network topologies in this system.
    Keywords: Electricity transmission, power-flow model, network expansion, congestion management, Southern Baja California.
    JEL: L5 L51 L52 L94 Q48
    Date: 2017–07–07
  11. By: Chirwa, Themba G; Odhiambo, Nicholas M.
    Abstract: This paper examines the short- and long-run relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption as an additional factor of production where state and macroeconomic stability variables are included in a multivariate growth model. The study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration to investigate this relationship in twelve countries during the period 1970-2014, selected from three continents, namely: Europe (Luxemborg, Norway, Denmark, Belgium), Asia (Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, India), and Africa (South Africa, Algeria, Egypt, Kenya), representing developed and developing countries. The study results reveal that electricity consumption is positively and significantly associated with economic growth in Luxemborg, Norway, Denmark, Belgium, Japan, Indonesia, India, South Africa, Algeria, and Egypt; and negatively associated with economic growth in Kenya in the long run. In the short run, the results reveal a positive and significant association between electricity consumption and economic growth in Luxemborg, Denmark, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, India, South Africa, and Algeria; and negatively associated in Egypt. The study therefore concludes that electricity consumption is an important factor of production in the study countries. Therefore, policy makers in economies where energy use leads to economic growth should focus on growth-promoting energy policies that are supported by macroeconomic stability policies.
    Keywords: Electricity Consumption; Macroeconomic Stability; Exogenous Growth Models; Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model; Europe; Asia; Africa
    Date: 2018–01–11
  12. By: Chao Luo; Yih-Fang Huang; Vijay Gupta
    Abstract: This paper presents a multi-stage approach to the placement of charging stations under the scenarios of different electric vehicle (EV) penetration rates. The EV charging market is modeled as the oligopoly. A consumer behavior based approach is applied to forecast the charging demand of the charging stations using a nested logit model. The impacts of both the urban road network and the power grid network on charging station planning are also considered. At each planning stage, the optimal station placement strategy is derived through solving a Bayesian game among the service providers. To investigate the interplay of the travel pattern, the consumer behavior, urban road network, power grid network, and the charging station placement, a simulation platform (The EV Virtual City 1.0) is developed using Java on Repast.We conduct a case study in the San Pedro District of Los Angeles by importing the geographic and demographic data of that region into the platform. The simulation results demonstrate a strong consistency between the charging station placement and the traffic flow of EVs. The results also reveal an interesting phenomenon that service providers prefer clustering instead of spatial separation in this oligopoly market.
    Date: 2018–01
  13. By: Chao Luo; Yih-Fang Huang; Vijay Gupta
    Abstract: This paper studies the problem of multi-stage placement of electric vehicle (EV) charging stations with incremental EV penetration rates. A nested logit model is employed to analyze the charging preference of the individual consumer (EV owner), and predict the aggregated charging demand at the charging stations. The EV charging industry is modeled as an oligopoly where the entire market is dominated by a few charging service providers (oligopolists). At the beginning of each planning stage, an optimal placement policy for each service provider is obtained through analyzing strategic interactions in a Bayesian game. To derive the optimal placement policy, we consider both the transportation network graph and the electric power network graph. A simulation software --- The EV Virtual City 1.0 --- is developed using Java to investigate the interactions among the consumers (EV owner), the transportation network graph, the electric power network graph, and the charging stations. Through a series of experiments using the geographic and demographic data from the city of San Pedro District of Los Angeles, we show that the charging station placement is highly consistent with the heatmap of the traffic flow. In addition, we observe a spatial economic phenomenon that service providers prefer clustering instead of separation in the EV charging market.
    Date: 2018–01
  14. By: Chao Luo; Yih-Fang Huang; Vijay Gupta
    Abstract: This paper studies the problem of stochastic dynamic pricing and energy management policy for electric vehicle (EV) charging service providers. In the presence of renewable energy integration and energy storage system, EV charging service providers must deal with multiple uncertainties --- charging demand volatility, inherent intermittency of renewable energy generation, and wholesale electricity price fluctuation. The motivation behind our work is to offer guidelines for charging service providers to determine proper charging prices and manage electricity to balance the competing objectives of improving profitability, enhancing customer satisfaction, and reducing impact on power grid in spite of these uncertainties. We propose a new metric to assess the impact on power grid without solving complete power flow equations. To protect service providers from severe financial losses, a safeguard of profit is incorporated in the model. Two algorithms --- stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) algorithm and greedy algorithm (benchmark algorithm) --- are applied to derive the pricing and electricity procurement policy. A Pareto front of the multiobjective optimization is derived. Simulation results show that using SDP algorithm can achieve up to 7% profit gain over using greedy algorithm. Additionally, we observe that the charging service provider is able to reshape spatial-temporal charging demands to reduce the impact on power grid via pricing signals.
    Date: 2018–01
  15. By: Chao Luo; Yih-Fang Huang; Vijay Gupta
    Abstract: This paper presents a dynamic pricing and energy management framework for electric vehicle (EV) charging service providers. To set the charging prices, the service providers faces three uncertainties: the volatility of wholesale electricity price, intermittent renewable energy generation, and spatial-temporal EV charging demand. The main objective of our work here is to help charging service providers to improve their total profits while enhancing customer satisfaction and maintaining power grid stability, taking into account those uncertainties. We employ a linear regression model to estimate the EV charging demand at each charging station, and introduce a quantitative measure for customer satisfaction. Both the greedy algorithm and the dynamic programming (DP) algorithm are employed to derive the optimal charging prices and determine how much electricity to be purchased from the wholesale market in each planning horizon. Simulation results show that DP algorithm achieves an increased profit (up to 9%) compared to the greedy algorithm (the benchmark algorithm) under certain scenarios. Additionally, we observe that the integration of a low-cost energy storage into the system can not only improve the profit, but also smooth out the charging price fluctuation, protecting the end customers from the volatile wholesale market.
    Date: 2018–01
  16. By: Kelsey Jack; Seema Jayachandran; Sarojini Rao
    Abstract: Water use and electricity use, which generate negative environmental externalities, are susceptible to a second externality problem: with household-level billing, each person enjoys private benefits of consumption but shares the cost with other household members. If individual usage is imperfectly observed (as is typical for water and electricity) and family members are imperfectly altruistic toward one another, households overconsume even from their own perspective. We develop this argument and test its prediction that intrahousehold free-riding dampens price sensitivity. We do so in the context of water use in urban Zambia by combining billing records, randomized price variation, and a lab-experimental measure of intrahousehold altruism. We find that more altruistic households are considerably more price sensitive than are less altruistic households. Our results imply that the socially optimal price needs to be set to correct both the environmental externality and also the intrahousehold externality.
    JEL: D10 H21 H23 O10 Q56
    Date: 2018–01
  17. By: Yoshiaki Nakada
    Abstract: We analyze how energy price and commodity price affect commodity output in a three-factor, two-good general equilibrium trade model with three factors (capital, labor, and imported energy), respectively. We search for a sufficient condition for a specific pattern of each relationship to hold. We assume factor-intensity ranking is constant. We use the EWS (economy-wide substitution)-ratio vector to analyze. We show that the position of the EWS-ratio vector determines the relationships. Specifically, if the price of good 1 rises, the output of good 2 can rise, if capital and labor are economy-wide complements. This article provides a basis for further applications.
    Date: 2017–11
  18. By: Laurent Franckx
    Abstract: Transport models used for long-term projections should reflect the impact of shared, automated and electric mobility modes. The objective of the current paper is to derive lessons from the existing literature on vehicle ownership modelling to find options to further improve the PLANET model, which is used for projections of transport demand in Belgium.PLANET is already well equipped to represent the impacts of shared and automated cars on the opportunity cost of travel time, the load factors and the annual mileage of cars.
    Keywords: Transport demand, Long-term forecasting, Technology diffusion, Car ownership, Automated vehicles, Electric vehicles, Shared mobility, Integrated energy-transport modelling
    JEL: H23 C25 L62 L9 O3 Q47 Q5 R4
    Date: 2017–07–26
  19. By: Hidetada Higashi (CEAFJP - Centre d’études avancées franco-japonais de Paris - FFJ - Fondation France-Japon de l'EHESS - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales)
    Abstract: This article proposes the selection model of optimal powertrain for usage conditions especially between Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles (ICE vehicles) and Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), which is possible “Disruptive Innovation” stated by Christensen (1997). Using the statistics provided by official data of Japan, author estimated the average of actual maximum driving range of ICE vehicle currently sold. The analysis revealed that the actual fuel efficiency and maximum driving range of ICE vehicles is much lower than nominal one published by OEMs. After that, citing two cases of Japan, author examines the fit between the usage pattern and the choice of power train. Discussing these cases and analysis, the author concludes that that the driving range of BEV dose not solely matter for optimal choice of powertrain. Rather, the driving range and the fit between usage patterns and the availability of “charging place” jointly affect to the optimal choice.
    Keywords: Innovation,Disruptive Innovation,Value proposition,Diffusion of innovation,Automotive industry,Innovative power train,Fuel efficiency,Driving range,Electric vehicle,Urban mobility
    Date: 2017–04
  20. By: Charles Raux (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ayman Zoubir (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Mirkan Geyik (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the socio-demographic profile and travel behavior of the " Velo'v " bike-sharing scheme annual members in Lyon (France). This scheme started in 2005 and has now around 350 stations and 4500 bikes in operation, with more than 50,000 annual members. By the means of an Internet-based survey more than 3,000 respondents were described by their detailed socio-demographic profile, their travel means and habits, a one-day activity-travel diary and additionally a seven days activity-travel diary filled by around 700 volunteers. By this way the survey covers all travel modes and day-today variations in travel behavior beyond the sole use of shared bike. We analyze with a discrete choice model the socio-demographic and spatial factors affecting the probability of being an annual member of the Velo'v scheme. Then we compare with descriptive statistics their daily travel behavior involving as well bike sharing as other traditional modes to the travel behavior of the general population as given with the latest Household Travel Survey available in the Lyon area (2015). The majority of Velo'v annual members are male, younger and hold higher social positions when compared with the Lyon's general population. An individual higher social position and the residential proximity to stations have both separate and positive effects on the probability of being an annual member of the service. Velo'v members are not captive from public transport, a majority of them have access to a car and they are fully multimodal in their day-today travel behavior. Velo'v bikes are used by them for any activity, not necessarily every day, like any other travel mode. The multimodal behavior of Velo'v members shows that Velo'v supply fits especially a demand not satisfied when the public transport station is too distant from home.
    Keywords: bike-sharing,Lyon,annual membership,discrete choice model,one week travel diary
    Date: 2017–12
  21. By: Erich Muehlegger; Richard L. Sweeney
    Abstract: The advent of hydraulic fracturing lead to a dramatic increase in US oil production. Due to regulatory, shipping and processing constraints, this sudden surge in domestic drilling caused an unprecedented divergence in crude acquisition costs across US refineries. We take advantage of this exogenous shock to input costs to study the nature of competition and the incidence of cost changes in this important industry. We begin by estimating the extent to which US refining’s divergence from global crude markets was passed on to consumers. Using rich microdata, we are able to decompose the effects of firm-specific, market-specific and industry-wide cost shocks on refined product prices. We show that this distinction has important economic and econometric significance, and discuss the implications for prospective policy which would put a price on carbon emissions. The implications of these results for perennial questions about competition in the refining industry are also discussed.
    JEL: H22 H23 Q40 Q54
    Date: 2017–11
  22. By: Gabriel E. Lade; Ivan Rudik
    Abstract: Efficient pollution regulation equalizes marginal abatement costs across sources. Here we study a new flaring regulation in North Dakota's oil and gas industry and document its efficiency. Exploiting detailed well-level data, we find that the regulation reduced flaring 4 to 7 percentage points and accounts for up to half of the observed flaring reductions since 2015. We construct firm-level marginal flaring abatement cost curves and find that the observed flaring reductions could have been achieved at 20% lower cost by imposing a tax on flared gas equal to current public lands royalty rates instead of using firm-specific flaring requirements.
    JEL: L71 Q3 Q4
    Date: 2017–12
  23. By: Sadek Boussena (LEPII - Laboratoire d'Economie de la Production et de l'Intégration Internationale - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Catherine Locatelli (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: Confronted with an increasingly competitive market in the European Union and the credible threat of a new entrant in the form of liquefied natural gas imports from the United States, Gazprom’s traditional export strategy is open to question. The company must decide whether it should launch a price war in order passively to adapt to impending competition and its role as a ‘residual supplier’ to the EU gas market, or whether it should take advantage of the current price uncertainty. This article explores the scope for long-term strategic action by Gazprom other than simply engaging in a price war. It is argued that Gazprom could forge a position as a key player in the EU gas market capable of playing the same role as Saudi Arabia does in the global oil market.
    Keywords: Gas, LNG, competition, EU, Russia, Gazprom
    Date: 2017–10–17
  24. By: Shaun McRae
    Abstract: Crude oil production in the United States increased by nearly 80 percent between 2008 and 2016, mostly in areas that were far from existing refining and pipeline infrastructure. The production increase led to substantial discounts for oil producers to reflect the high cost of alternative transportation methods. I show how the expansion of the crude oil pipeline network reduced oil price differentials, which fell from a mean state-level difference of $10 per barrel in 2011 to about $1 per barrel in 2016. Using data for the Permian Basin, I estimate that the elimination of pipeline constraints increased local prices by between $6 and $11 per barrel. Slightly less than 90 percent of this gain for oil producers was a transfer from existing oil refiners and shippers. Refiners did not pass on these higher costs to consumers in the form of higher gasoline prices.
    JEL: L71 L95 Q41
    Date: 2017–12
  25. By: Bahram Sanginabadi
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impacts of major natural resource discoveries since 1960 on life expectancy in the nations that they were resource poor prior to the discoveries. Previous literature explains the relation between nations wealth and life expectancy, but it has been silent about the impacts of resource discoveries on life expectancy. We attempt to fill this gap in this study. An important advantage of this study is that as the previous researchers argued resource discovery could be an exogenous variable. We use longitudinal data from 1960 to 2014 and we apply three modern empirical methods including Difference-in-Differences, Event studies, and Synthetic Control approach, to investigate the main question of the research which is 'how resource discoveries affect life expectancy?'. The findings show that resource discoveries in Ecuador, Yemen, Oman, and Equatorial Guinea have positive and significant impacts on life expectancy, but the effects for the European countries are mostly negative.
    Date: 2017–12
  26. By: Steffen Meyer; Michaela Pagel
    Abstract: This paper shows that air quality has a significantly negative effect on the likelihood of individual investors to sit down, log in, and trade in their brokerage accounts controlling for investor-, weather-, traffic-, and market-specific factors. In perspective, a one standard deviation increase in fine particulate matter leads to the same reduction in the probability of logging in and trading as a one standard deviation increase in sunshine. We document this effect for low levels of pollution that are commonly found throughout the developed world. As individual investor trading can be a proxy for everyday cognitively-demanding tasks such as office work, our findings suggest that the negative effects of pollution on white-collar work productivity are much more severe than previously thought. To our knowledge, this is the first study to demonstrate a negative impact of pollution on a measure of white-collar productivity at the individual level in a western country.
    JEL: D14 G11 J22 J24 Q51 Q53
    Date: 2017–11
  27. By: Nicolas Gendron-Carrier; Marco Gonzalez-Navarro; Stefano Polloni; Matthew A. Turner
    Abstract: We investigate the relationship between the opening of a city’s subway network and its air quality. We find that particulate concentrations drop by 4% in a 10km radius disk surrounding a city center following a subway system opening. The effect is larger near the city center and persists over the longest time horizon that we can measure with our data, about eight years. We estimate that a new subway system provides an external mortality benefit of about $594m per year. Although available subway capital cost estimates are crude, the estimated external mortality effects represent a significant fraction of construction costs.
    JEL: L91 R11 R14 R4
    Date: 2018–01
  28. By: Shuai Chen; Paulina Oliva; Peng Zhang
    Abstract: This paper looks at the effects of air pollution on migration in China using changes in the average strength of thermal inversions over five-year periods as a source of exogenous variation for medium-run air pollution levels. Our findings suggest that air pollution is responsible for large changes in inflows and outflows of migration in China. More specifically, we find that independent changes in air pollution of the magnitude that occurred in China in the course of our study (between 1996 and 2010) are capable of reducing floating migration inflows by 50 percent and of reducing population through net outmigration by 5 percent in a given county. We find that these inflows are primarily driven by well educated people at the beginning of their professional careers, leading to substantial changes in the sociodemographic composition of the population and labor force of Chinese counties. Our results are robust to different specifications, including simple counts of inversions as instruments, different weather controls, and different forms of error variance.
    JEL: O15 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2017–11
  29. By: Bachmann, Rüdiger; Ehrlich, Gabriel; Ruzic, Dimitrije
    Abstract: This paper uses the 2015 Volkswagen emissions scandal as a natural experiment to provide causal evidence that group reputation externalities matter for firms. Our estimates show statistically and economically significant declines in the U.S. sales and stock returns of, as well as public sentiment towards, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Smart as a result of the Volkswagen scandal. In particular, the scandal reduced the sales of these non-Volkswagen German manufacturers by approximately 76,000 vehicles over the following year, leading to a loss of approximately $3.7 billion of revenue. Volkswagen's malfeasance materially harmed the group reputation of "German car engineering" in the United States.
    Keywords: automobiles; collective reputation; country reputation; Difference-in-Differences; event study; firm reputation; Google trends; Natural Experiment; reputation externalities; Twitter sentiment
    JEL: D12 D90 F23 L14 L62
    Date: 2017–12
  30. By: Takeshi Kawakatsu; Soochoel Lee; Sven Rudolph
    Date: 2017–12
  31. By: Nicolas Piluso (CERTOP - Centre d'Etude et de Recherche Travail Organisation Pouvoir - UT2 - Université Toulouse 2 - UPS - Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse 3 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Edwin Le Héron (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: L'objet de cet article est d'analyser les effets conjoncturels d'une politique climatique de taxation des émissions polluantes ainsi que son impact sur l'efficacité des politiques de relance dans le cadre d'analyse d'une économie keynésienne. Les contributions empiriques et théoriques actuelles estiment qu'une taxation a le plus souvent un impact récessif. Par ailleurs, ces travaux montrent que l'efficacité des politiques publiques est entravée par l'exercice de la politique climatique et/ou l'existence d'une contrainte environnementale. Nous montrons ici à l'inverse que la politique climatique de taxation peut exercer, sous certaines conditions, un effet favorable sur la conjoncture et renforcer l'efficacité économique des politiques de relance budgétaire.
    Keywords: économie keynésienne. , Taxe carbone, politique de relance
    Date: 2017–11–25
  32. By: Hélène Benveniste (IPSL - Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - CNES - Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - UVSQ - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris); Olivier Boucher (LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - INSU - CNRS - Institut national des sciences de l'Univers - Polytechnique - X - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Hervé Le Treut (UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6); Patrick Criqui (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), submitted by Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) before and after the 21st Conference of Parties (COP21), summarize domestic objectives for greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions reductions for the 2025-2030 time horizon. In the absence, for now, of detailed guidelines for NDCs format, ancillary data are needed to interpret some NDCs and project GHG emissions in 2030. Here, we provide an analysis of uncertainty sources and their impacts on 2030 global GHG emissions based on the sole and full achievement of the NDCs. We estimate that NDCs project into 56.8 to 66.5 Gt CO2eq yr-1 emissions in 2030 (90% confidence interval), which is higher than previous estimates, and with a larger uncertainty range. Despite these uncertainties, NDCs robustly shift GHG emissions towards emerging and developing countries and reduce international inequalities in per capita GHG emissions. Finally, we stress that current NDCs imply larger emissions reduction rates after 2030 than during the 2010-2030 period if long-term temperature goals are to be fulfilled. Our results highlight four requirements for the forthcoming "climate regime": a clearer framework regarding future NDCs' design, an increasing participation of emerging and developing countries in the global mitigation effort, an ambitious update mechanism in order to avoid hardly feasible decarbonization rates after 2030 and an anticipation of steep decreases in global emissions after 2030.
    Date: 2017–12–11
  33. By: Caroline Hambye; Bart Hertveldt; Bernhard Klaus Michel
    Abstract: The traditional attribution of responsibility for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to producing countries may be distorted by international trade flows as importing emission-intensive commodities contributes to reducing a country's production-based emissions. This has motivated the calculation of carbon footprints that measure the amount of domestic and foreign GHG emissions (directly and indirectly) embodied in commodities intended for final consumption by a country's residents. In thisworking paper, we present carbon footprint estimations for Belgium based on global multi-regional input-output (MRIO) tables that have been made consistent with detailed Belgian national accounts. According to our calculations, Belgium's carbon footprint is substantially higher than its productionbased emissions, which means that Belgium is a net importer of GHG emissions. Moreover, our results show that consistency with detailed national accounts does matter for MRIO-based carbon footprint calculations, in particular for a small open economy like Belgium.
    Keywords: Carbon footprint, Consumption-based Emission Accounting, Global Multi-Regional Input- Output Tables
    JEL: Q54 Q56 F18 C67
    Date: 2017–09–28
  34. By: Monica Novackova (Department of Economics, University of Sussex); Richard S.J. Tol (Department of Economics, University of Sussex; Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam; CESifo, Munich)
    Abstract: We explore an unprecedented dataset of almost 6000 observations to identify main predictors of climate knowledge, climate risk perception and willingness to pay for climate change mitigation. Among nearly 70 potential explanatory variables we detect the most important ones using multisplit lasso estimator. Importantly, we test significance of individuals' preferences about time, risk and equity. Our study is innovative as these behavioural characteristics were recorded by including experimental methods into a live sample survey. This unique way of data collection combines advantages of survey and experiments. The most important predictors of environmental attitudes are numeracy, cognitive ability, ideological world-view and inequity aversion.
    Keywords: climate change; climate knowledge; climate policy; lasso; risk perception; willingness to pay
    JEL: Q54 Q58 D80
    Date: 2018–01
  35. By: Christiane J.S. Baumeister; James D. Hamilton
    Abstract: Traditional approaches to structural vector autoregressions can be viewed as special cases of Bayesian inference arising from very strong prior beliefs. These methods can be generalized with a less restrictive formulation that incorporates uncertainty about the identifying assumptions themselves. We use this approach to revisit the importance of shocks to oil supply and demand. Supply disruptions turn out to be a bigger factor in historical oil price movements and inventory accumulation a smaller factor than implied by earlier estimates. Supply shocks lead to a reduction in global economic activity after a significant lag, whereas shocks to oil demand do not.
    JEL: C32 E32 Q43
    Date: 2017–12
  36. By: Gaël Giraud (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AFD - Agence française de développement, Chaire Energie & Prospérité - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Ecole Polytechnique - X - ENS Paris - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - Institut Louis Bachelier); Hadrien Lantremange (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Chaire Energie & Prospérité - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Ecole Polytechnique - X - ENS Paris - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - Institut Louis Bachelier); Emeric Nicolas (Chaire Energie & Prospérité - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Ecole Polytechnique - X - ENS Paris - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - Institut Louis Bachelier); Olivier Rech (Chaire Energie & Prospérité - ENSAE ParisTech - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - Ecole Polytechnique - X - ENS Paris - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Paris - Institut Louis Bachelier)
    Abstract: How could the burden of GHG emission reduction be shared among countries? We address this arguably basic question by purely statistical methods that do not rely on any normative judgment about the criteria according to which it should be answered. The sum of current Nationally Determined Contributions to reducing GHG emissions would result in an average temperature rise in 2100 of the order of 3°C to 3.2°C. Implementing policies that enable to achieve the objective of a worldwide average temperature rise below 2°C obviously requires setting a more consistent and efficient set of national emissions targets. While a scientific consensus has been reached about the global carbon budget that we are acing, given the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement, no such consensus prevails on how this budget is to be divided among countries. This paper proposes a Climate Liabilities Assessment Integrated Methodology (CLAIM) which enables to determine national GHG budgets compliant with any average temperature target and time horizon. Our methodology does neither resort to any scenario nor any simulation-based model. Rather, it computes the allocation of 2°C-compatible national carbon budgets which has a priori the highest probability of emerging from the international discussion, whatever being the criteria on which the latter might be based. As such it provides a framework ensuring the highest probability of reaching a consensus. In particular, it avoids the pitfall of arbitrarily assigning weights according, say, to “capacity” or “responsibility” criteria, and simultaneously unifies the different methodologies that have been proposed in the literature aiming at setting national GHG budgets. Sensitivity tests confirm the robustness of our methodology.
    Keywords: climate change,global warming,GHG emissions,distribution of GHG emissions,emissions gap,2°C scenario,carbon budget,Intended nationally determined contribution
    Date: 2017–12
  37. By: Freeman, Mark C.; Groom, Ben
    Abstract: Theoretical arguments for using a term structure of social discount rates (SDR) that declines with the time horizon have influenced Government guidelines in the US and Europe. The certainty equivalent discount rate that often underpins this guidance embodies uncertainty in the primitives of the SDR, such as growth. For distant time horizons the probability distributions of these primitives are ambiguous and the certainty equivalent itself is uncertain. Yet, if a limited set of characteristics of the unknown probability distributions can be agreed upon, 'sharp'upper and lower bounds can be defined for the certainty-equivalent SDR. Unfortunately, even with considerable agreement on these features, these bounds are widely spread for horizons beyond 75 years. So while estimates of the present value of intergenerational impacts, including the social cost of carbon, can be bounded in the presence of this ambiguity, they typically remain so imprecise as to provide little practical guidance.
    Keywords: Declining discount rates; Distribution uncertainty; Social Cost of Carbon.
    JEL: H43 Q51
    Date: 2016–09–01
  38. By: Ivlevs, Artjoms (University of the West of England, Bristol)
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of the 2008–09 global economic crisis on people's pro-environmental behaviour and willingness to pay for climate change mitigation. We hypothesise that the crisis has affected pro-environmental behaviours through tightening of budget constraints and relaxation of time constraints. Using data from a large representative survey (Life in Transition II), conducted in 35 European and Central Asian countries in 2010, we find that people adversely affected by the crisis are more likely to act in an environmentally-friendly way, but less likely to be willing to pay for climate change mitigation. Our findings confirm the importance of time and budget constraints for undertaking pro-environmental action, and highlight a potentially positive role of adverse, external welfare shocks in shaping pro-environmental behaviour.
    Keywords: willingness to pay for climate change mitigation, pro-environmental behaviour, adverse welfare shocks, global economic crisis, transition economies
    JEL: G01 P28 Q53 Q54
    Date: 2017–11
  39. By: Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Hoang Anh Trinh Nguyen (CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - University of sciences and technologies of hanoi)
    Abstract: Vietnam plans to develop dozens of new coal-fired power generation units over the next 20 years. If they are indeed build, in order to avoid a dangerous level of global warming, it may appear necessary to dispose of these plants' CO2 by burying it in deep underground geological formations instead of releasing it into the atmosphere, using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. We show that CCS has a technical potential in Vietnam, according to the geology and the industrial geography. To discuss under which economics conditions this potential could actualize, we examine two scenarios for 2050. In the first scenario, CO2 is used in Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) only. EOR technology makes CCS cheaper by injecting CO2 in partially depleted oil field, aiming to recover more oil. The second scenario considers CCS deployment in coal-based power plants, on top of using it for EOR. In both scenarios, a few gas-fired CCS power plants are build, reaching 1 GW in 2030, supported by Enhanced Oil Recovery and international carbon finance. The decision point where the two scenarios diverge is in 2030. A scenario to switch all currently existing or planned power plants to low-carbon by 2050 is to retrofit 3.2 GW of coal-fired capacity and install 1.2 GW of gas-fired capacity with CCS every year, starting in 2035 for 15 years. Capture readiness would lower the costs of using CCS in Vietnam, but is not mandatory today.
    Keywords: Vietnam,Scenario,Power generation,Carbon capture and storage,Capture ready
    Date: 2017–11
  40. By: Batten, Sandra (Bank of England)
    Abstract: Climatic factors can directly affect economic outcomes such as output, investment and productivity, and understanding the economic consequences of climate change is becoming a necessity not just for climate economists but also for a wider range of economic professionals involved in modelling and forecasting macroeconomic variables. The focus of this review is on the key theoretical and empirical modelling issues in the analysis of the macroeconomic risks deriving from climate change. The paper develops the taxonomy introduced by a number of previous Bank of England studies, which distinguish between physical and transition risks of climate change. The paper then identifies the different channels through which these risks are transmitted to the macro-economy, either through (unpredictable) economic shocks or through predictable, longer-term impacts. The different approaches to modelling these macroeconomic effects are then discussed and assessed in light of the increasing need to routinely monitor and quantify the impact of emerging climate change risks on the economy.
    Keywords: Climate change; global warming; natural disasters; macroeconomic models
    JEL: E10 H23 Q51 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2018–01–12

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