nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2018‒01‒15
thirty-six papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Energy deprivation of Indian households: evidence from NSSO data By Ranjan, Rahul; Singh, Sudershan
  2. Energy and the Military: Convergence of Security, Economic, and Environmental Decision-Making By Nuttall, W.; Samaras, C.; Bazilian, M.;
  3. The prosumers and the grid By GAUTIER Axel; JACQMIN Julien; POUDOU Jean-Christophe
  4. Energy Efficiency and Economy-wide Rebound: Realising a Net Gain to Society? By L. (Lisa B.) Ryan; Karen Turner; Nina Campbell
  5. Credit constraints, energy management practices, and investments in energy saving technologies: German manufacturing in close-up By Löschel, Andreas; Lutz, Benjamin Johannes; Massier, Philipp
  6. Drivers of energy efficiency in German manufacturing: A firm-level stochastic frontier analysis By Lutz, Benjamin Johannes; Massier, Philipp; Sommerfeld, Katrin; Löschel, Andreas
  7. Does the stick make the carrot more attractive? State mandates and uptake of renewable heating technologies By Achtnicht, Martin; Germeshausen, Robert; von Graevenitz, Kathrine
  8. Estimation of Environmental Kuznets Curve for CO2 Emission: Role of Renewable Energy Generation in India By Sinha, Avik; Shahbaz, Muhammad
  9. The Impact of Intermittent Renewable Production and Market Coupling on the Convergence of French and German Electricity Prices By Jan Horst Keppler; Sébastien Phan; Yannick Le Pen; Charlotte Boureau
  10. A Review of Balancing Costs in Italy before and after RES introduction By Angelica Gianfreda; Lucia Parisio; Matteo Pelagatti
  11. A Stochastic Latent Moment Model for Electricity Price Formation By Angelica Gianfreda; Derek Bunn
  12. Using nonlinear stochastic and deterministic (chaotic tools) to test the EMH of two Electricity Markets the case of Italy and Greece By George P Papaioannou; Christos Dikaiakos; Anargyros Dramountanis; Dionysios S Georgiadis; Panagiotis G Papaioannou
  13. Determinants of power spreads in electricity futures markets: A multinational analysis By Spodniak, Petr; Bertsch, Valentin
  14. Construction of JEPX Forward Pricing Model Based on the Spot Price Prediction Method (Japanese) By YAMADA Yuji
  15. The impact of intraday markets on the market value of flexibility–Decomposing effects on profile and the imbalance costs By Christian Pape
  16. The race to solve the sustainable transport problem via carbon-neutral synthetic fuels and battery electric vehicles By Hannula, I.; Reiner, D.
  17. Green Car Adoption and the Supply of Alternative Fuels By Pavan, Giulia
  18. Observatory of Strategic Developments Impacting Urban Logistics (2017 version) By Laetitia Dablanc; Zeting Liu; Martin Koning; Jens Klauenberg; Leise Kelli de Oliveira; Corinne Blanquart; François Combes; Nicolas Coulombel; Mathieu Gardrat; Adeline Heitz; Saskia Seidel
  19. Re-evaluating Irish energy policy in light of brexit By Lynch, Muireann A
  20. Identifying Price Bubble Periods in the Energy Sector By Sharma, Shahil; Escobari, Diego
  21. Centroamérica y República Dominicana: estadísticas de hidrocarburos, 2016 By Torijano, Eugenio
  22. Oil Discoveries and Education Spending in the Postbellum South By Stephan E. Maurer
  23. On the time-varying links between oil and gold: New insights from the rolling and recursive rolling approaches By Mehmet Balcilar; Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir; Muhammad Shahbaz
  24. Sraffa and the revenue of the owner of non- renewable natural resources: notes on a never- ending debate By Yoann Verger
  25. Efficiency assesment of a lignite-fired steam generator By Dosa, Ion; Marica, Laura
  26. Willingness to Pay for Clean Air in China By Richard Freeman; Wenquan Liang; Ran Song; Christopher Timmins
  27. The Agnostic's Response to Climate Deniers: Price Carbon! By Rezai, Armon; van der Ploeg, Frederick
  28. When starting with the most expensive option makes sense: optimal timing, cost and sectoral allocation of abatement investment By Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Meunier, Guy; Hallegatte, Stéphane
  29. Estimación del valor económico de la captura de carbono por efecto de la forestación en el Uruguay By Caffera, Marcelo; D’Agosti, Natalia
  30. Ratchet up or down? An experimental investigation of global public good provision in the United Nations Youth Associations Network By Gallier, Carlo; Kesternich, Martin; Löschel, Andreas; Waichman, Israel
  31. Research Methodology By Mohajan, Haradhan
  32. Market Power and Instrument Choice in Climate Policy By Mbéa Bell; Sylvain Dessy
  33. Asymmetric Innovation Agreements under Environmental Regulation By Naoto Aoyama; Emilson C.D. Silva
  34. Enhancing ICT for Environmental Sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa By Asongu, Simplice; Le Roux, Sara; Biekpe, Nicholas
  35. Environmental Degradation, ICT and Inclusive Development in Sub-Saharan Africa By Asongu, Simplice; Le Roux, Sara; Biekpe, Nicholas
  36. Manage energy/environmental footprints of travel: A proposed solution/methodology By Rouhani, Omid

  1. By: Ranjan, Rahul; Singh, Sudershan
    Abstract: This study examines the patterns of domestic energy consumption of households in India over the period of past two and half decades. The analysis shows that the use of energy varies across rural and urban households and also across the categories of low and high income groups. Although increase in income is accompanied with the change in household’s fuel mix but total disappearance of fuel-wood for cooking purpose is uncommon. Households wait for threshold level of income in order to change their cooking energy preferences but their lighting energy preferences change constantly with income. Further, a puzzling pattern is noticed that monthly per capita consumption expenditure (MPCE) and average calorie intake from energy sources move in opposite directions in the considered second decade of the study which this paper intends to explain. Further, this paper makes an attempt to estimate Gini Coefficients to measure energy inequality in terms of energy consumption and expenditure. This is revealed that inequality is high in the consumption of LPG in rural areas and that of electricity in urban areas. In addition to this, various methods for estimating the energy poverty are also examined. Each one leads to the conclusion that energy poverty was sharply declined in India in the period 1999-00 and then suddenly increased in 2011-12.
    Keywords: Energy Consumption, Energy Inequality, Energy Poverty
    JEL: I19 I3 I31 I32 I38 O13 Q40
    Date: 2017–12–27
  2. By: Nuttall, W.; Samaras, C.; Bazilian, M.;
    Abstract: Energy considerations are core to mission delivery of armed forces worldwide. The interaction between military energy issues and non-military energy issues is not often explicitly treated in the literature or media, although in the last decade there has been some increase driven especially by the issues of clean energy. It is recognized that the military has for more than a hundred years taken a leadership role in terms on research and development (R&D) of specific energy technologies - most commonly where they are applicable in theater. More recently that R&D leadership has moved to the energy efficiency of home-country bases, and the development of renewable energy projects for areas as diverse as mini-grids for in-country installations, to alternative fuels for submarines and jets. Nevertheless, the military in most major countries tends to see energy issues as a matter of mission delivery or conversely the denial of enemy energy supply chains as a source of advantage. In this paper we explore the evolving relationship between energy issues and defense planning, and show how these developments have implications for military tactics and strategy and for civil energy policy.
    Keywords: Energy Technology; Defense Policy; Innovation
    JEL: F50 H56 Q20 N42 N44 Q40
    Date: 2017–11–20
  3. By: GAUTIER Axel (Université de Liège, HEC Liège, LCII and CORE); JACQMIN Julien (Université de Liège, HEC Liège, and LCII); POUDOU Jean-Christophe (LAMETA, Université de Montpellier)
    Abstract: Prosumers are households that are both producers and consumers of electricity. A prosumer has a grid-connected decentralized production unit (DPU) and makes two types of exchanges with the grid: energy imports when the local production is insu cient to match the local consumption and energy exports when local production exceeds it. There exists two systems to measure the exchanges : a net metering system that uses a single meter to measure the balance between exports and imports and a net purchasing system that uses two meters to measure separately power exports and im-ports. Both systems are currently used for residential consumption. We build a model to compare the two metering systems. Under net metering, the price of exports paid to prosumers is implicitly set at the price of the electricity that they import. We show that net metering leads to (1) too many prosumers, (2) a decrease in the bills of prosumers, compensated via a higher bill for traditional consumers, and (3) a lack of incentives to synchronize local production and consumption.
    Keywords: decentralized production unit, grid regulation, solar panel, grid tari , storage
    JEL: D13 L51 L94 Q42
    Date: 2017–06–06
  4. By: L. (Lisa B.) Ryan; Karen Turner; Nina Campbell
    Abstract: Economy-wide rebound in energy use is often presented as a necessary ‘evil’ accompanying economic expansion triggered by energy efficiency improvements. We challenge this position in two, inter-related ways. First, we question the emphasis on potential technical energy savings and losses due to rebound in energy efficiency policy evaluation. This abstracts from the wider economic and societal impacts of energy efficiency improvements that are often positive and valuable to policy makers. Second, we propose that economic expansion and economy-wide rebound need not be highly correlated. We argue that energy efficiency actions targeted at improving the competitiveness of less energy-intensive means of providing services, such as heat and transport, may provide opportunities to boost economic activity while minimising rebound effects. This perspective involves a change in current policy and research thinking, particularly in terms of the type of substitution possibilities that we should focus on in enhancing energy efficiency, economic expansion and rebound relations.
    Keywords: Energy policy; Energy economics; Economy-wide rebound; Energy efficiency
    JEL: Q43 Q48 E2
    Date: 2017–11
  5. By: Löschel, Andreas; Lutz, Benjamin Johannes; Massier, Philipp
    Abstract: We analyze the drivers and barriers that influence investments increasing the energy efficiency of firms' production processes or buildings in the German manufacturing sector based on microdata. In particular, we shed light on the relationship between financial barriers (e. g. credit constraints), information and knowledge (e. g. energy management practices), salience of energy-related topics, and the investments in energy saving technologies. A better understanding of firms' investment behavior regarding energy saving technologies is crucial to design efficient policy measures, which are necessary to achieve the imposed ambitious climate and energy policy targets. We use data from 701 structured telephone interviews in combination with commercial and confidential firm-level data. Our results suggest that energy management practices have a statistically significant positive relationship with investment decisions on energy saving technologies for production processes and buildings. Credit constraints are a barrier to investments in the energy efficiency of firms' production processes. Furthermore, high energy cost shares of heating or cooling, high energy intensity, energy self-generation and structured internal decision making processes influence the investments in energy efficiency positively.
    Keywords: Energy efficiency,Credit constraints,Energy management,Manufacturing,industry,Investment behavior
    JEL: D22 H23 Q41 Q48 Q58
    Date: 2017
  6. By: Lutz, Benjamin Johannes; Massier, Philipp; Sommerfeld, Katrin; Löschel, Andreas
    Abstract: Increasing energy efficiency is one of the main goals in current German energy and climate policies. We study the determinants of energy efficiency in the German manufacturing sector based on official firm-level production census data. By means of a stochastic frontier analysis, we estimate the cost-minimizing energy demand function at the two-digit industry level using firm-level heterogeneity. Apart from the identification of the determinants of the energy demand function, we also analyze potential drivers of energy efficiency. Our results suggest that there is still potential to increase energy efficiency in most industries of the German manufacturing sector. Furthermore, we find that in most industries exporting and innovating firms as well as those investing in environmental protection measures are more energy efficient than their counterparts. In contrast, firms which are regulated by the European Union Emissions Trading System are mostly less energy efficient than non-regulated firms.
    Keywords: Stochastic Frontier Analysis,Stochastic Demand Frontier,Energy Efficiency,Climate Policy,Manufacturing
    JEL: D22 D24 L60 Q41
    Date: 2017
  7. By: Achtnicht, Martin; Germeshausen, Robert; von Graevenitz, Kathrine
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the effect of the state-level renewable heating mandate for existing homes in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany's third largest federal state. The mandate requires homeowners to supply at least 10 % of their heat demand with renewable energy when they replace their existing heating system. To assess the impact of the renewable heating standard on the uptake of renewable heating systems, we use unique data on a federal government subsidy scheme and exploit geographic differences in state laws over time. We find no evidence of an effect of the mandate even after restricting distance to the state border and refining the data set through matching on population and building characteristics. These findings are unchanged, when we allow effects to vary across space or over time. While energy efficiency and renewable standards are often criticized for not being cost-effective, our results challenge the widespread view that a standard is nevertheless successful in achieving its policy goal.
    Keywords: Technology diffusion,Building regulations,Subsidies,Renewable energy sources
    JEL: Q4 Q48 O33 Q58 H23
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Sinha, Avik; Shahbaz, Muhammad
    Abstract: The existing literature on environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is mainly focused on finding out the optimal sustainable path for any economy. Looking at the present renewable energy generation scenario in India, this study has made an attempt to estimate the EKC for CO2 emission in India for the period of 1971-2015. Using unit root test with multiple structural breaks and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, this study has found the evidence of inverted U-shaped EKC for India, with the turnaround point at USD 2937.77. The renewable energy has found to have significant negative impact on CO2 emissions, whereas for overall energy consumption, the long run elasticity is found to be higher than short run elasticity. Moreover, trade is negatively linked with carbon emissions. Based on the results, this study concludes with suitable policy prescriptions.
    Keywords: India, CO2 emission, EKC, ARDL, Renewable energy
    JEL: A10
    Date: 2017–12–10
  9. By: Jan Horst Keppler (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine); Sébastien Phan (Autre - non renseigné); Yannick Le Pen (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - Université Paris-Dauphine); Charlotte Boureau (Autre - non renseigné)
    Abstract: Interconnecting two adjacent areas of electricity production generates benefits in combined consumer surplus and welfare by allowing electricity to flow from the low cost area to the high cost area. It will lower prices in the high cost area, raise them in the low cost area and will thus have prices in the two areas converge. With unconstrained interconnection capacity, price convergence is, of course, complete and the two areas are merged into a single area. With constrained interconnection capacity, the challenge for transport system operators (TSOs) and market operators is using the available capacity in an optimal manner. This was the logic behind the “market coupling” mechanism installed by European power market operators in November 2009 in the Central Western Europe (CWE) electricity market, of which France and Germany constitute by far the two largest members. Market coupling aims at optimising welfare by ensuring that buyers and sellers exchange electricity at the best possible price taking into account the combined order books all power exchanges involved as well as the available transfer capacities between different bidding zones. By doing so, interconnection capacity is allocated to those who value it most.
    Keywords: Electricity market
    Date: 2017–10–02
  10. By: Angelica Gianfreda (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Faculty of Economics and Management); Lucia Parisio (University of Milano-Bicocca, DEMS); Matteo Pelagatti (University of Milano-Bicocca, DEMS)
    Abstract: The massive introduction of RES in electricity markets is recognized to have induced a merit order effect on wholesale prices. While day-ahead prices are likely to decline as RES-E production increases, the effects on balancing market sessions are more ambiguous. Taking into account the Northern Italian zone characterized by a high solar PV and hydro penetration, we provide empirical evidence that balancing quantities decreased while costs increased between two samples associated with low (2006-08) and high (2013-15) RES levels. We estimate balancing costs for different technologies and compare their dynamics across specific hours. We find evidence of increasing balancing prices in particular market conditions, that we interpret as a signal of strategic use of real time sessions by conventional producers prone to the merit order effect in the day-ahead market. We compare our results to those obtained in the German market (where, on the contrary, balancing costs have decreased) and postulate that the different market designs may explain these results. Our findings suggest that Italian policy makers should carefully monitor all trading sessions, especially those close to real time, to avoid the exercise of market power by few operators allowed to guarantee system security and, additionally, to promptly adopt a capacity market.
    Keywords: Electricity market, Merit order effect, Balancing Cost, Up-regulation, Down-regulation, Uplift
    JEL: D04 D24 L1 O13 Q41 Q42
    Date: 2018–01
  11. By: Angelica Gianfreda (Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Faculty of Economics and Management); Derek Bunn (London Business School, Energy Markets Group)
    Abstract: The wide range of models needed to support the various short-term operations for electricity generation demonstrates the importance of accurate specifications for the uncertainty in market prices. This is becoming increasingly challenging, since electricity hourly price densities exhibit a variety of shapes, with their characteristic features changing substantially within the day and over time, and the in ux of renewable power, wind and solar in particular, has amplified these effects. A general-purpose, analytically tractable representation of the stochastic price formation process would have considerable value for operations control and trading, but existing empirical approaches or the application of standard density functions are unsatisfactory. We develop a general four parameter stochastic model for hourly prices, in which the four moments of the density function are dynamically estimated as latent state variables and furthermore modelled as functions of several plausible exogenous drivers. This provides a transparent and credible model that is suffciently exible to capture the shape-shifting effects, particularly with respect to the wind and solar output variations causing dynamic switches in the upside and downside risks. Extensive testing on German wholesale price data, benchmarked against quantile regression and other models in out-of-sample backtesting, validated the approach and its analytical appeal.
    Keywords: Electricity Prices, Density Estimation, Skewness, Quantiles, Risk
    JEL: C01 C21 C22 C32 C53 Q41 Q47
    Date: 2018–01
  12. By: George P Papaioannou; Christos Dikaiakos; Anargyros Dramountanis; Dionysios S Georgiadis; Panagiotis G Papaioannou
    Abstract: Utilization of non-linear tools to characterize the state of development of the electricity markets in Italy and Greece. This is equivalent to testing the Efficient Market Hypothesis on these markets. The tools include a variety of complexity measures like Maximal Lyapunov and Hurst exponents and HHI index for market concentration and Entropy, a measure of uncertainty and complexity in a dynamical system, applied on the electricity wholesale marginal prices PUN and SMP of Italy and Greece.Our aim is to measure the complexity and dimensionality of the manifold on which the underlying stochastic dynamical system, govenring the prices, evolve. We also use the conditional volatility of prices, which is a measure of the market risk, and its connection with stability, and Hurst exponent to investigate the properties of the fluctuations of the prices which are the footprints of the idiosyncrracies of each market.
    Date: 2017–11
  13. By: Spodniak, Petr; Bertsch, Valentin
    Abstract: The growth in variable renewable energy (vRES) and the need for flexibility in power systems go hand in hand. We study how vRES and other factors, namely the price of substitute fuels, power price volatility, structural breaks, and seasonality impact the hedgeable power spreads (profit margins) of the main dispatchable flexibility providers in the current power systems – gas and coal power plants. We particularly focus on power spreads that are hedgeable in futures markets in three European electricity markets (Germany, UK, Nordic) over the time period 2009-2016. We find that market participants who use power spreads need to pay attention to the fundamental supply and demand changes in the underlying markets (electricity, CO2, and coal/gas). Specifically, we show that the total vRES capacity installed during 2009-2016 is associated with a drop of 3-22% in hedgeable profit margins of coal and especially gas power generators. While this shows that the expansion of vRES has a significant negative effect on the hedgeable profitability of dispatchable, flexible power generators, it also suggests that the overall decline in power spreads is further driven by the price dynamics in the CO2 and fuel markets during the sample period. We also find significant persistence (and asymmetric effects) in the power spreads volatility using a univariate TGARCH model.
    Date: 2017–12
  14. By: YAMADA Yuji
    Abstract: Motivated by the full liberalization of the Japanese retail electric power market which started in April 2016, trading of wholesale electricity via the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX) has been attracting much more attention recently. In addition, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) is now planning to list electricity futures/forward contracts on the JEPX spot prices, and a variety of electricity derivatives using those contracts are expected to be available in the near future. However, the construction of forward/future models is considered difficult due to the lack of sufficient observed data despite its importance in introducing such derivatives. Also, it should be noted that electricity needs to be consumed as soon as it is produced so that future/forward contracts cannot be replicated using the spot electricity contracts, further exacerbating the pricing problem. In this paper, we develop a prediction based forward pricing model by extending our previously developed technique for estimating predicted values of JPEX spot prices. To the end, we decompose the log- process of JEPX spot prices into a trend function modeled by a spline regression and the residual term represented by state space equations formula. Then, we apply a financial engineering technique known as the Esscher transformation for the daily forward pricing problem to derive forward prices with arbitrary delivery periods (e.g., from one week to six months). An empirical analysis illustrates the accuracy of predicted forward prices estimated by our proposed technique and the risk aversion coefficient implied by realized forward prices in JEPX.
    Date: 2017–12
  15. By: Christian Pape (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen (Campus Essen))
    Abstract: An increasing share of variable renewable energy sources (VREs) basically affects the electricity price formation in two ways: (1) The so-called merit order effect tends to lower the base price level and challenges conventional plants to remain profitable. (2) Due to the variable nature of renewable energy infeed, the shortterm demand for flexibility increases and changes the volatility of electricity prices. The more variable prices offer opportunities for controllable electricity producers (CEPs) to provide up- and down-ramping flexibility to increase their revenues. In contrast, the VREs with high degrees of simultaneity tend to pay for this flexibility in the electricity spot market to reduce their imbalance exposure. The intraday market (IDM) for electricity has gained importance for the market value of different technologies lately and continues to expand due to the increasing efforts to balance within-day deviation from day-ahead schedules. This article presents a combination and extension of two existing models to capture the peculiarities of the intraday price formation and to analyse the impact of the IDM on the market value of VREs and CEPs. Doing so, the paper suggests an adjustment of the classical market value factor metric and to go beyond classical day-ahead market (DAM) information. The article shows that market value factors (MVFs) can be stabilized if the IDM delivers ‘marketbased’ price signals for the costs of flexibility, that are sufficient to activate flexibilities prior to the usually more expensive imbalance mechanism (IBM). Yet, the MVFs from single VRE technologies will worsen if their market share is high enough to outweigh forecast errors from other technologies and if they become a permanent price maker in the IDM and the IBM.
    Keywords: intraday markets, imbalance mechanism, market value, renewable energy
    JEL: Q47 N74
    Date: 2017–12
  16. By: Hannula, I.; Reiner, D.
    Abstract: Carbon-neutral synthetic fuels (CNSFs) could offer sustainable alternatives to petroleum distillates that currently dominate the transportation sector, and address the challenge of decarbonising the fuel mix. CNSFs can be divided into synthetic biofuels and 'electrofuels' produced from CO2 and water with electricity. We provide a framework for comparing CNSFs to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) as alternatives to reduce vehicle emissions. Currently, all three options are significantly more expensive than conventional vehicles using fossil fuels, and would require carbon prices in excess of $250/tCO2 or oil prices in excess of $150/bbl to become competitive. BEVs are emerging as a competitive option for short distances, but their competitiveness quickly deteriorates at higher ranges where synthetic biofuels are a lower-cost option. For electrofuels to be viable, the challenge is not simply technological learning, but access to a low-cost ultra-low-carbon electric power system, or to low-carbon electric generators with high annual availability.
    Keywords: Carbon-neutral synthetic fuels, electrofuels, advanced biofuels, battery electric vehicles, low-carbon transportation alternatives
    JEL: Q41 Q42 Q55 R41 R48 O33
    Date: 2017–12–29
  17. By: Pavan, Giulia
    Abstract: Easy access to stations serving alternative fuels is an obvious concern for customers considering to buy a "green" car. Yet, the supply of fuel is seldom considered analyzing how to promote the adoption of environmentally friendly vehicles. I develop and estimate a joint model of demand for cars and supply of alternative fuels. I use this framework to compare the effectiveness of a subsidy to consumers who buy cars running on alternative fuels to that of a subsidy to gas stations installing alternative fuel pumps. Counterfactual simulations suggest that subsidizing fuel retailers to offer alternative fuels is a more effective policy that indirectly increases low emission car sales.
    Keywords: Alternative fuel cars; Entry; Environmental policy
    JEL: H23 H25 L11 L91 Q48
    Date: 2017–12
  18. By: Laetitia Dablanc (IFSTTAR/AME/SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - Communauté Université Paris-Est); Zeting Liu (IFSTTAR/AME/SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - Communauté Université Paris-Est); Martin Koning (IFSTTAR/AME/SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - Communauté Université Paris-Est); Jens Klauenberg (DLR Institute of Transport Research - DLR - Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Berlin]); Leise Kelli de Oliveira (Universidade federal de Minas Gerais - UFMG (BRAZIL)); Corinne Blanquart (IFSTTAR/AME/SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - Communauté Université Paris-Est); François Combes (IFSTTAR/AME/SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - Communauté Université Paris-Est); Nicolas Coulombel (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech); Mathieu Gardrat (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Adeline Heitz (IFSTTAR/AME/SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - Communauté Université Paris-Est); Saskia Seidel (IFSTTAR/AME/SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - Communauté Université Paris-Est)
    Abstract: Urban freight living labs need to operate in full recognition of the challenges that will shape the mobility of goods in urban areas in the future. These challenges are several: macro economic, micro-economic, demographic, technological, societal, and legal. To help CITYLAB cities implement their urban freight initiatives, a better understanding of these challenges is necessary. This is what this Observatory of strategic developments impacting urban logistics intends to do, by providing data and analysis on some of the most important, or less well known, trends that will shape the urban mobility of goods in the future. This second version (2017) of the Observatory provides data and analyses on 1) Logistics Sprawl; and 2) E-commerce. Our findings about the main impacts of these two trends for cities involved in urban freight living labs are the following: - The number of logistics facilities (in their diversity: warehouses, fulfilment centres, distribution centres, cross-dock terminals) is increasing in cities, especially cities of some logistics importance as large consumer markets and/or logistics hubs processing the flow of goods generated by the global economy. These facilities are generally located in suburban areas, but a new niche market of urban warehouses is emerging. - Both e-commerce and logistics sprawl generate a rise in freight vehicles in urban areas, dominated by small vehicles, while medium to large lorries are relatively less important. These vehicles performing delivery operations are visible in neighbourhoods and a times of day when they were not identified before: residential neighbourhoods, residential building blocks, side streets, in the early evening and on week-ends. Emerging new types of vehicles (clean delivery vehicles, two and three wheelers) are now visible in urban centres. - Innovations in the urban supply chains include diverse forms of pick-up points and click-and-collect solutions, while the recent but extremely rapid rise in technologies and algorithms supporting instant deliveries (on-demand deliveries within less than two hours) brings with it a flourish of new companies connecting customers, suppliers and independent couriers, often using bicycles. - The overall impact of these new trends on energy and carbon emission related to urban freight is difficult to assess. Urban freight in general, for the Paris region, brings the following environmental impact: the share of traffic-related CO2, NOx and PM10 due to urban freight is 2.5 times larger than the share of vans and trucks in the regional traffic. The contribution of urban freight to air pollution is larger in the city of Paris. Social costs of air pollution caused by road traffic in general amount to 0.9% of the regional GDP in 2012. Some of the new trends bring more CO2 emissions, such as the relocation of logistics facilities far away in the suburbs, as de-consolidated shipments are delivered to urban consumers and businesses in smaller and more numerous vans. Some trends bring less CO2 emissions, with a rise in cleaner vehicles and innovative solutions such as drop-off/pickup points or bike-supported instant deliveries. Substitution patterns between personal mobility and professional freight mobility can be a good, or a bad, thing for CO2 emissions, depending on the initial circumstances and the way personal shopping was done before online orders. - What is certain is that these changes bring diversity in the urban traffic flow. Instant couriers are using all sorts of transport modes, including foot, bicycles, electrically assisted cargocycles, motorbikes, and various types of vans and lorries. This can negatively impact traffic management, road safety and conflicts in road uses, congestion, air pollution. Also, the trends we have looked at bring new types of urban jobs, with many unresolved legal issues and poor working conditions in many instances. New types of logistics buildings bring architectural diversity and innovation in cities, but also complaints about noise, aesthetics, as well as congestion and pollution at entrance and exit points. - These environmental and social impacts have been so far poorly documented and researched. Consumers are the main drivers of the changes we have observed, but they are also the residents or visitors of urban areas, and for that they carry an important share of the burdens, as well as the benefits, of the new landscape of urban logistics.
    Date: 2017–01–01
  19. By: Lynch, Muireann A
    Date: 2017–06
  20. By: Sharma, Shahil; Escobari, Diego
    Abstract: In this paper we test for the existence of single and multiple episodes of explosive behavior in three energy sector indices (crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas) and five energy sector spot prices (West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent, heating oil, natural gas, and jet fuel). The results from the Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (SADF) and the Generalized SADF tests provide strong statistical evidence of explosive behavior in all of our energy series. A simple theoretical framework of commodity pricing allows us to understand the assumptions to interpret explosive behavior as bubbles. By constructing implied convenience yields using futures prices we test the key assumption and we are able to identify the beginning and the end of bubble periods for the WTI, Brent, heating oil, and natural gas spot prices.
    Keywords: Generalized SADF; Energy; Oil; Explosive behavior; Bubbles
    JEL: C22 Q02 Q41 Q43
    Date: 2017–11
  21. By: Torijano, Eugenio
    Abstract: En este documento se presentan cuadros regionales y nacionales con datos estadísticos del subsector hidrocarburos de los ocho países que conforman el Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA): Belice, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panamá y la República Dominicana. El informe consta de cinco grupos de cuadros: el primero corresponde al valor de las importaciones y precios; el segundo a los balances de petróleo, derivados y gas natural; el tercero al consumo interno de hidrocarburos; el cuarto a la procedencia de las importaciones y la capacidad de almacenamiento; y el quinto y último, a la estructura de los mercados. La sección de gráficos también se divide en cinco grupos: a) procedencia de las importaciones; b) evolución de los precios de los combustibles; c) consumo de los derivados del petróleo y gas natural; d) balance de los hidrocarburos, y e) impacto de las importaciones en la balanza comercial. El documento ha sido posible gracias a la colaboración de las instituciones nacionales y regionales del sector petrolero de los países del SICA.
    Date: 2017–12
  22. By: Stephan E. Maurer
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of oil wealth on the provision of education in the early 20th century United States. Using information on the location and discovery of major oil fields, I find that oil wealth increased local revenue and education spending. The quality of white teachers increased, and oil-rich counties were more likely to participate in the Rosenwald school building program for blacks. In addition, student-teacher ratios for black school children declined substantially. However, I do not find increased school enrolment rates for either race.
    Keywords: oil, education, race, rosenwald, local public finances, resource booms, teachers
    JEL: I2 N3 Q3
    Date: 2018–01
  23. By: Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University); Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir (Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey); Muhammad Shahbaz (Montpellier Business School, Montpelier, France)
    Abstract: This study analyzes the dynamic linkages between oil and gold prices for the spot and 1- to 12-month futures markets using monthly data over the period 1983-2016. To do this, we use the rolling and recursive rolling Granger causality approaches. The distinguishing feature of this study from the previous studies is that this is the first study investigating the causal links between oil and gold using time-varying causality tests. The findings show that the causality links between oil and gold display strong time variation. Although causal links are not detected for most of the study period, strong bi-directional or unidirectional causality is found in several subsamples. The duration of the periods with causality links vary from a few months to three years, while the duration for the non-causality periods might be 15 years long. By date-stamping the causality links between oil and gold, our paper discovers that causality from oil to gold is related to large oil price changes, while causality from gold to oil is related to large financial crises. The evidence obtained in the paper points out the dangers of assuming a constant causality link between oil and gold markets because these links might break down unexpectedly.
    Keywords: Gold and oil prices, Time-varying Granger causality, Rolling estimation, Recursive rolling estimation.
    JEL: C22 Q02 E31
    Date: 2018
  24. By: Yoann Verger (ECOSYS - Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes - AgroParisTech - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique)
    Abstract: A rich literature exists about the way to handle non-renewable natural resources in the context of classical theory. This article sums up the different approaches that we could consider when we calculate the revenue of the owner of a non-renewable natural resource in a Sraffian framework. It clarifies the concepts of differential rent, depreciation of wasting assets, Hotelling rent, and rent as a share of the product, and links this last concept with some empirical facts about non-renewable natural resource extraction industries.
    Abstract: Une riche littérature existe concernant la façon de considérer les ressources naturelles non-renouvelables dans la théorie classique. Cet article résume les différentes approaches que nous pouvons considérer lorsque l'on calcule le revenu d'un propriétaire d'une ressource naturelle non-renouvelable dans un système Sraffien. Il clarifie les concepts de rente différentielle, dépréciation d'un actif décroissant, rente d'Hotelling, et rente comme partage du produit, et lie ce dernier concept avec quelques faits empiriques concernant les industries extrayant les ressources naturelles non-renouvelables.
    Keywords: non-renewable natural resource, rent, extractive industry,Sraffa, Hotelling,ressourcenaturelle non-renouvelable,rente,industrie extractive
    Date: 2017–09–27
  25. By: Dosa, Ion; Marica, Laura
    Abstract: Research on lignite-fired power plants highlighted that the efficiency of lignite-fired is 88.9% for PC (pulverized coal) and USC PC (ultra-supercritical pulverized coal) units while for CFBC (circulating fluidized bed combustion) is 87.0%. The efficiency assessment carried out for the boiler presented in this paper revealed that the highest efficiency achieved in actual operating conditions is 83% while the rated efficiency is 85%. Retrofitting old boilers to reach the efficiency of modern ones, around 95% is not an option since they will not comply with environmental standards.
    Keywords: energy efficiency, lignite-fired, boiler
    JEL: Q49 Q53
    Date: 2017–01
  26. By: Richard Freeman; Wenquan Liang; Ran Song; Christopher Timmins
    Abstract: We develop a residential sorting model incorporating migration disutility to recover the implicit value of clean air in China. The model is estimated using China Population Census Data along with PM2.5 satellite data. Our study provides new evidence on the willingness to pay for air quality improvement in developing countries and is the first application of an equilibrium sorting model to the valuation of non-market amenities in China. We employ two novel instrumental variables based on coal-fired electricity generation and wind direction to address the endogeneity of local air pollution. Results suggest important differences between the residential sorting model and a conventional hedonic model, highlighting the role of moving costs and the discreteness of the choice set. Our sorting results indicate that the economic value of air quality improvement associated with a one-unit decline in PM2.5 concentration is up to $8.83 billion for all Chinese households in 2005.
    JEL: Q51 Q53 R23
    Date: 2017–12
  27. By: Rezai, Armon; van der Ploeg, Frederick
    Abstract: With the election of President Trump, climate deniers moved from the fringes to the centre of global policy making and need to be addressed in policy-making. An agnostic approach to policy, based on Pascal's wager, gives a key role to subjective prior probability beliefs about whether climate deniers are right. Policy makers that assign a 10% chance of climate deniers being correct set the global price on carbon to $19.1 per ton of emitted CO2 in 2020. Given that a non-denialist scientist making use of the DICE integrated assessment model sets the price at $21.1/tCO2, agnostics' reflection of remaining scientific uncertainty leaves climate policy essentially unchanged. The robustness of an ambitious climate policy also follows from using the max-min or the min-max regret principle. Letting the coefficient of relative ambiguity aversion vary from zero corresponding to expected utility analysis to infinity corresponding to the max-min principle, it is possible to show how policy makers deal with fundamental climate model uncertainty when they are prepared to assign prior probabilities to different views of the world being correct. Allowing for a wide range of sensitivity exercises including damage uncertainty, it turns out that pricing carbon is the robust response under rising climate scepticism.
    Keywords: ambiguity aversion; climate model uncertainty; climate scepticism; DICE integrated assessment model; max-min; min-max regret; robust climate policies
    JEL: H21 Q51 Q54
    Date: 2017–11
  28. By: Vogt-Schilb, Adrien; Meunier, Guy; Hallegatte, Stéphane
    Abstract: This paper finds that it is optimal to start a long-term emission-reduction strategy with significant short-term abatement investment, even if the optimal carbon price starts low and grows progressively over time. Moreover, optimal marginal abatement investment costs differ across sectors of the economy. It may be preferable to spend $25 to avoid the marginal ton of carbon in a sector where abatement capital is expensive, such as public transportation, or in a sector with large abatement potential, such as the power sector, than $15 for the marginal ton in a sector with lower cost or lower abatement potential. The reason, distinct from learning spillovers, is that reducing greenhouse gas emissions requires investment in long-lived abatement capital such as clean power plants or public transport infrastructure. The value of abatement investment comes from avoided emissions, but also from the value of abatement capital in the future. The optimal levelized cost of conserved carbon can thus be higher than the optimal carbon price. It is higher in sectors with higher investment needs: those where abatement capital is more expensive or sectors with larger abatement potential. We compare our approach to the traditional abatement-cost-curve model and discuss implications for policy design.
    Keywords: climate change mitigation, transition to clean capital, path dependence, social cost of carbon, marginal abatement cost, timing
    JEL: Q52 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2017–10
  29. By: Caffera, Marcelo; D’Agosti, Natalia
    Abstract: En años recientes, Uruguay ha tenido emisiones netas negativas (captura) de carbono (CO2), lo que deriva en una externalidad positiva para el resto del mundo. El gobierno uruguayo puede usar este hecho como herramienta de negociación en su estrategia de financiamiento de reducciones adicionales de gases de efecto invernadero. Para tales efectos, en el presente trabajo se informa a los encargados de la política nacional de cambio climático sobre el valor económico que las capturas de CO2 realizadas en Uruguay tienen para el resto del mundo, utilizando un sencillo modelo de Evaluación Integrada, ejercicio que no se había realizado en el país.
    Date: 2017–12–21
  30. By: Gallier, Carlo; Kesternich, Martin; Löschel, Andreas; Waichman, Israel
    Abstract: From a current perspective the Paris Agreement is not sufficient to limit the global mean temperature below 2êC above pre-industrial level as intended. The Agreement stipulates that parties review, compare and ratchet up efforts to combat climate change over time. Within this process, commitments heavily depend on what has been already achieved and this status-quo reflects an important reference point serving either as commitment advice or potential threat. We present an experimental study that is specifically designed to incorporate the effect of a status-quo via pre-existing contribution levels under endowment heterogeneity in a game in which participants make voluntary contributions to a public good. Our participants are sampled from the United Nations Youth Associations Network, representing participants from 51 countries. Members from developed and developing countries take decisions against the background of different initial levels of endowments and pre-existing contributions. Our analysis indicates that starting with ambitious pre-existing contribution levels can foster aggregate mitigation levels. Falling behind this status-quo contribution levels by reducing the public good appears to be a strong behavioral barrier. These observations might provide support for the basic structure of the Paris Agreement with Nationally Determined Contributions and the possibility to adjust them, even if a downward revision of national targets may not be precluded.
    Keywords: Paris Agreement,Nationally Determined Contributions,Ratched-up mechanism,International public goods,Online experiment
    JEL: H41 C91 F53 Q58
    Date: 2017
  31. By: Mohajan, Haradhan
    Abstract: This chapter presents all the tools and systems used for this dissertation. It discusses the methodological epistemologies and approaches that support mathematical economics and social choice research. The research is based on: mathematical modeling of economic analysis in optimizations, social choice and game theory, voting system, environmental pollution, healthcare, and sustainable economy, NNP, social welfare and sustainability, GHG emissions, global warming and climate change that effects on modern economy, and finally green taxes on environment pollution to reduce GHG emissions. This chapter introduces the research strategy and the empirical methods for the general approach, and specific techniques to address the objectives for the research. It also presents the research design and the methods used in the selection of the research participants, and for data collection. Research methodology indicates the logic of development of the process used to generate theory that is procedural framework within which the research is conducted (Remenyi et al. 1998). It provides the principles for organizing, planning, designing, and conducting research. Methodological decisions are determined by the research paradigm that a researcher is following. The research paradigm not only guides the selection of data gathering and analysis methods but also the choice of competing methods of theorizing (Sayer 1992). This study is based on both primary and secondary data that are collected from various sources. Primary data have been collected from the 500 female garment workers of the slum areas of Chittagong City Corporation (CCC) of Bangladesh by random sampling technique through open-ended questionnaire. The open-ended response questions are most beneficial when a researcher conducts exploratory research, especially if the range of respondents is not known. The open-ended questions can be used to learn what words and phrases people spontaneously give to the free-response questions. The secondary data are collected from the websites, books and e-books, previous published articles, theses, conference papers, case studies, magazines, and various research reports. Here we have tried to discuss in brief, and clarify how evidence in this study was collected and analyzed, as well as to introduce the research strategy and the empirical techniques applied in this research. The research strategy adopted was face-to-face interview of the garments workers. The mathematical and theoretical data are collected and developed to make this empirical research fruitful.
    Keywords: Research methodology,mathematical economics, social welfare,sustainable development.
    JEL: B4 C1
    Date: 2017–12–10
  32. By: Mbéa Bell; Sylvain Dessy
    Abstract: This paper compares a clean energy standard (CES) and a carbon tax (CT), using theory and quantitative experiments. A two-stage duopolistic competition in the electricity sector between a polluting plant and its non-polluting rival anchors the model underlying these experiments. The CT induces both plants to contribute to clean electricity, whereas the CES only incentivizes the non-polluting plant. Ultimately, what matters for the ranking of these instruments is the size of the pre-existing competitive gap between the two rival plants. When this gap is sufficiently small, the CES becomes the more cost-effective instrument, irrespective of the pre-specified emissions reduction target.
    Keywords: Electricity, Cost-effectiveness, Duopoly, Innovation, Quantitative analysis.
    JEL: H20 H32 L13 L51
    Date: 2017
  33. By: Naoto Aoyama; Emilson C.D. Silva
    Abstract: In a domestic market, a duopoly produces a homogeneous final good, pollution, pollution abatement and R&D. One of the firms (foreign) has superior technology. The government regulates the duopoly by levying a pollution tax to maximize domestic welfare. We consider the potential implementation of three innovation agreements: cooperative research joint venture (RJV), non-cooperative RJV and licensing. In the cooperative (non-cooperative) RJV, the firms (do not) internalize R&D spillovers. We show that, for the domestic firm, the cooperative RJV dominates and licensing is the least desirable alternative. Although licensing is dominant for the foreign firm, it is not implementable. Both RJVs are implementable. While the non-cooperative RJV is more likely the greater the degrees of asymmetry (in terms of efficiency and R&D spillover rates) between the firms, the cooperative RJV is more likely the lower the degrees of asymmetry. Implementation of both types of RJVs improve the competitiveness of the domestic firm and welfare. A subsidy policy that induces the foreign firm to accept a feasible cooperative RJV when it strictly prefers a feasible non-cooperative RJV is always welfare improving.
    Keywords: environmental regulation, innovation, research joint ventures, licensing
    JEL: D43 D62 F23 L13 L24 L51 Q55 Q58
    Date: 2018
  34. By: Asongu, Simplice; Le Roux, Sara; Biekpe, Nicholas
    Abstract: This study examines how increasing ICT penetration in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) can contribute towards environmental sustainability by decreasing CO2 emissions. The empirical evidence is based the Generalised Method of Moments and forty-four countries for the period 2000-2012. ICT is measured with internet penetration and mobile phone penetration while CO2 emissions per capita and CO2 emissions from liquid fuel consumption are used as proxies for environmental degradation. The following findings are established: First, from the non-interactive regressions, ICT (i.e. mobile phones and the internet) does not significantly affect CO2 emissions. Second, with interactive regressions, increasing ICT has a positive net effect on CO2 emissions per capita while increasing mobile phone penetration alone has a net negative effect on CO2 emissions from liquid fuel consumption. Policy thresholds at which ICT can change the net effects from positive to negative are computed and discussed. These policy thresholds are the minimum levels of ICT required, for the effect of ICT on CO2 emissions to be negative. Other practical implications for policy and theory are discussed
    Keywords: CO2 emissions; ICT; economic development; Sub-Saharan Africa
    JEL: C52 O38 O40 O55 P37
    Date: 2017–01
  35. By: Asongu, Simplice; Le Roux, Sara; Biekpe, Nicholas
    Abstract: This study examines how information and communication technology (ICT) complements carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to influence inclusive human development in forty-four Sub-Saharan African countries for the period 2000-2012. ICT is measured with internet penetration and mobile phone penetration. The empirical evidence is based on Generalised Method of Moments. The findings broadly show that ICT can be employed to dampen the potentially negative effect of environmental pollution on human development. We establish that: (i) ICT complements CO2 emissions from liquid fuel consumption to increase inclusive development; (ii) ICT interacts with CO2 intensity to negatively affect inclusive human development and (iii) the net effect on inclusive human development is positive from the complementarity between mobile phones and CO2 emissions per capita. Conversely, we also establish evidence of net negative effects. Fortunately, the corresponding ICT thresholds at which these net negative effects can be completely dampened are within policy range, notably: 50 (per 100 people) mobile phone penetration for CO2 emissions from liquid fuel consumption and CO2 intensity. Theoretical and policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions; ICT; Economic development; Africa
    JEL: C52 O38 O40 O55 P37
    Date: 2017–01
  36. By: Rouhani, Omid
    Abstract: Congestion is a growing challenge in major urban areas worldwide; a challenge that imposes enormous social and private costs to society. Despite these substantial costs, our knowledge is limited about how transportation users value choices that can reduce fuel consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG), and criteria pollutant emissions (PM2.5, NOx, CO, etc.). In this regard, I proposed the advanced traveler general information system (ATGIS), a scheme that can estimate/provide travelers with travel cost data that they currently do not have. In this paper, I explain the steps required to test, examine, and develop such a scheme for a metropolitan area.
    Keywords: Advanced traveler information systems, emissions costs, fuel costs, travel behavior, Social/private costs of travel
    JEL: R00 R41 R42
    Date: 2017–12

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