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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Claudio Agostini (Escuela de Gobierno, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez); Shahriyar Nasirov; Carlos Silva |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uai:wpaper:wp_052&r=ene |
| By: | Peters, Jörg |
| Abstract: | More than 1.1 billion people in developing countries lack access to electricity. Based on the assumption that electricity is a prerequisite for economic development, the UN has proclaimed the goal of providing electricity to all by 2030. This will cost an estimated 640 billion USD. New empirical evidence, however, shows: Effects on income, health and education in newly connected communities are low. Moreover, the poorest households are lacking funds to get connected. This calls for a stronger focus on electrification through low-cost off-grid technologies, which could improve the cost-benefit balance. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwiimp:171351&r=ene |
| By: | Daire McCoy, John Curtis |
| Abstract: | In order to better understand the potential for both policy and technological improvements to aid carbon abatement, long-term historical information on the time-path of transition from more traditional to cleaner fuels is useful. This is a relatively understudied element of the fuel switching literature in both developed and emerging economies. This research adds to this literature by examing the adoption time-path of network gas as a heating fuel. We merge a unique dataset on gas network roll-out over time, with other geo-coded data and employ an instrumental variables technique in order to simultaneously model supply and demand. Results indicate a non-linear relationship between the proportion of households using gas as their primary means of central heating and the length of time the network has been in place in each area. Proximity to the gas network, peat bogs, and areas which have banned the consumption of bituminous coal also affect gas connections. Variations in socioeconomic and dwelling characteristics at area level can also help explain connections to the gas network. Simulations are then performed to examine how network expansion might affect connections and carbon emissions. |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp320&r=ene |
| By: | Valeria Costantini; Francesco Crespi; Elena Paglialunga |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of private and public actions for energy efficiency on EU employment dynamics, relying on an econometric analysis on a sector-based panel dataset for 15 EU countries (1995-2009). Results show that after accounting for the sectoral output growth, investment and innovation activities, sectoral energy efficiency gains display a negative effect on employment growth, especially in energy intensive industries. Conversely, public actions towards energy efficiency may produce positive effects on employment dynamics. Indeed, the higher incidence of taxation on energy costs, the energy efficiency gains realized in the public sector industries and the implementation of a comprehensive policy mix at the country level, are factors positively influencing employment growth. This evidence highlights the complexity of the nexus between energy efficiency and employment dynamics, suggesting that superior employment performances can be achieved when complementarity effects between productivity enhancing activities and energy efficiency actions are realized. |
| Keywords: | Energy Efficiency, Public Policies, Employment, Manufacturing Sectors, Eco- Innovation, European Union |
| JEL: | C23 L60 O33 Q52 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtr:wpaper:0227&r=ene |
| By: | Dahlqvist, Anna (National Institute of Economic Research); Lundgren, Tommy (Centre for Environmental and Resource Economics, Umeå University and Swedish University of Agricultural Science); Marklund, Per-Olov (National Institute of Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to analyze the direct rebound effect poten-tially prevailing in energy intense industries. The rebound effect repre-sents economic mechanisms that will offset energy savings from energy efficiency improvements. For this purpose, a factor demand model is applied incorporating an asymmetric energy price response. Asymmetric prices imply that firms respond more strongly to energy price increases than to energy price decreases. In the empirical model we use a firm level, unbalanced panel covering the years 2001 to 2012 and four major Swedish energy-intensive industries; pulp and paper, iron and steel, chemical, and mining. The result indicates that the rebound effect is considerable in these industries. To mitigate this effect, the results sug-gest that policies stimulating an increase in energy efficiency should be combined with a raise in energy taxes. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric price response; Energy efficiency; Factor de-mand model; Own-price elasticities; Voluntary Energy Efficiency Pro-grams; Rebound effect |
| JEL: | Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2017–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0150&r=ene |
| By: | Gerster, Andreas |
| Abstract: | As of May 1, 2014, sellers on the German real estate market are obliged to disclose a house's energy consumption per square meter in their advertisements. The effect of this law has been to substantially increase the transparency of the real estate market. At the same time, the introduction of mandatory disclosure had impacts on asking prices: Houses with poor thermal quality became cheaper, with no price change seen for houses with high thermal quality. This is likely due to the fact that sellers of houses with high energy consumption typically did not include this information in their advertisement before the new regulation. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwiimp:171355&r=ene |
| By: | Moyo, Clement; Dingela, Siyasanga; Kolisi, Nwabisa; Khobai, Hlalefang; Anyikwa, Izunna |
| Abstract: | The importance of renewable energy consumption has grown to a large extent over the recent years. The benefits of renewable energy consumption ranging from improved environmental quality to higher economic growth are well documented. However, the impact of renewable energy consumption on unemployment has received relatively less attention. This study examines the relationship between renewable energy consumption and unemployment in South Africa over the period 1990-2014. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed to test the long-run and short-run impacts of renewable energy consumption on unemployment. The results reveal that renewable energy consumption has a negative and significant effect on unemployment in the long-run. However, in the short-run the variables have an insignificant relationship. The study therefore advocates for an increase in the production and consumption of renewable energy in order to boost employment levels. |
| Keywords: | Renewable energy consumption, unemployment, ARDL, South Africa |
| JEL: | C50 Q20 |
| Date: | 2017–12–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83279&r=ene |
| By: | Claudio Agostini (Escuela de Gobierno, Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez); Shahriyar Nasirov; Carlos Silva; Gustavo Caceres |
| Date: | 2017–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uai:wpaper:wp_053&r=ene |
| By: | Schleich, Joachim; Faure, Corinne; Gassmann, Xavier |
| Abstract: | Using a representative sample of more than 11,000 households from eight Eu-ropean countries, this paper empirically studies the factors related to household electricity contract switching by distinguishing between households that switched contracts but stayed with the same supplier (internal switching) from those that switched to a new supplier (external switching). The econometric analysis includes a wide range of individual preferences, structural factors, and socio-demographic characteristics; in particular, it is the first paper to explicitly explore the role of time and risk preferences on switching behaviors. The main results suggest that internal and external switching are not related to the same factors, that risk and time preferences affect switching behaviors, and that renters are less likely to switch than homeowners. |
| Keywords: | electricity supplier switching,inertia,liberalization,time preferences,risk preferences |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s142017&r=ene |
| By: | Ernani Teixeira Torres Filho; Norberto Montani Martins; Caroline Yukari Miaguti |
| Abstract: | The present paper applies Hyman P. Minsky's insights on financial fragility in order to analyze the behavior of electricity distribution companies in Brazil from 2007 to 2015. More specifically, it builds an analytical framework to classify the firms operating in this sector into Minskyan risk categories and assess how financial fragility evolved over time, in each firm and in the sector as a whole. This work adapts Minsky's financial fragility indicators and taxonomy to the conditions of the electricity distribution sector and applies them to regulatory accounting data for more than 60 firms. This empirical application of Minsky's theory for analyzing firms engaged in the provision of public goods and services is a novelty. The results show an increase in the financial fragility of those firms (as well as the sector) throughout the period, especially between 2008 and 2013, even though the number of firms operating at the highest level of financial risk hardly changed. |
| Keywords: | Minsky; Financial Fragility; Financial Instability Hypothesis; Electricity Distribution Companies |
| JEL: | G31 G38 H40 L59 L94 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lev:wrkpap:wp_896&r=ene |
| By: | Galina Besstremyannaya (CEFIR at New Economic School); Richard Dasher (Stanford University); Sergei Golovan (New Economic School) |
| Abstract: | A considerable amount of research has shown that that carbon tax combined with research subsidy may be regarded as an optimal policy in view of diffusing low carbon technologies for the benefit of the society. The paper exploits the macro economic approach of the endogenous growth models with technological change for a comparative assessment of these policy measures on the economic growth in the US and Japan in the medium and the long run. The results of our micro estimates reveal several important differences across the Japanese and US energy firms: lower elasticity of innovation production function in R&D expenditure, lower probability of a radical innovation, and larger advances of dirty technologies in Japan. This may explain our quantitative findings of stronger reliance on carbon tax than on research subsidies in Japan relative to the US. |
| Keywords: | endogenous growth, technological change, innovation, carbon tax, energy |
| JEL: | O11 O13 O47 Q43 Q49 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0245&r=ene |
| By: | Biel, Konstantin |
| Abstract: | This cumulative dissertation consists of five papers published in different scientific journals. All five papers are concerned with multi-stage production planning. Due to differing foci of the papers, this dissertation is divided into two parts. Part A embraces Papers 1 to 4 and contributes to a research stream that investigates energy aspects in multi-stage production planning. Part B features Paper 5 and investigates the influence of worker learning and forgetting on multi-stage production systems. Aside from the differing foci, the five papers also vary in the methodologies employed. The first paper presents a systematic review of the state of the art of decision support models for energy-efficient production planning. The remaining four papers develop mathematical models for supporting production planning decisions considering different measures to foster energy efficiency (Papers 2 to 4) and considering human factors (Paper 5). Papers 2 to 4 analytically solve the developed mathematical models. In contrast, Paper 5 draws on discrete-event simulation to derive effective production control policies. The following paragraphs summarize the five papers. Paper 1 systematically reviews the literature on quantitative decision support models which integrate energy considerations into mid-term and short-term production planning of manufacturing companies. The sampled articles are then classified and synthesized with regard to the characteristics of the modeling approaches representing different energy aspects. Based on the discussion of the sampled articles, Paper 1 identifies future research opportunities in the area of energy-aware production planning and thereby sets the stage for Papers 2 to 4 of this dissertation. Paper 2 studies how waste heat rejected by manufacturing processes in a two-stage production system can be utilized to foster energy-efficient production planning. Among the different ways of recovering waste heat, Paper 2 focuses on the conversion of waste heat into electricity using an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC). To this end, it first describes this thermodynamic conversion process mathematically and then integrates it into a lot sizing model such that the electricity from the recovered waste heat supports the energy supply of the production stages. In a next step, Paper 2 proposes a solution procedure which derives optimal values for the lot size, the production rates of the two production stages, and the number of shipments between the two production stages that minimize production- and energy-related costs. In a numerical analysis, Paper 2 investigates how considering waste heat recovery in production planning can effectively reduce energy consumption in manufacturing and how it impacts production planning decisions. Paper 3 extends the model developed in Paper 2 and studies the use of an ORC-based waste heat recovery system (WHRS) combined with an electrical energy storage system (EESS). With the help of an EESS, generation and consumption of electricity from the WHRS can be decoupled. Using mixed integer linear programming (MILP), Paper 3 proposes a mathematical model that integrates time-varying energy prices alongside the technological processes of the WHRS and the EESS into the production planning problem of a serial multi-stage production system. This MILP model determines when production stages should process and how the WHRS and the EESS should be operated to optimize production- and energy-related costs. In a numerical analysis, Paper 3 examines how attaching an EESS to a WHRS can enhance its relevance for energy-aware production planning, particularly through providing the opportunity to store energy generated from waste heat in times of low energy prices and to then use it in times of high energy prices. Similar to Papers 2 and 3, Paper 4 also contributes to the research stream on energy-aware production planning. However, in contrast to the preceding papers, it focuses on the integration of onsite wind power into production scheduling of a flow shop system. Coordinating production scheduling and the energy supply from an onsite wind turbine poses a major challenge to researchers and practitioners as the intermittent character of wind power due to the vagaries of wind speed adds a stochastic component to production scheduling. The approach suggested in Paper 4 overcomes this challenge by first generating a large number of wind power scenarios that characterize the variability and the time dependence of wind power over time. A systematically reduced subset of these wind power scenarios subsequently serves as an input to a two-stage stochastic optimization procedure. Based on the reduced wind power scenario set, this procedure first computes a production schedule and energy supply decisions that minimize the total weighted flow time and the expected energy cost. The energy supply decisions derive whether the electricity generated by the wind turbine during a given time slot should be used to support the energy supply of the machines or be fed into the grid and thus determine the amount of electricity that needs to be drawn from the grid to guarantee an uninterrupted energy supply of the machines. These energy supply decisions are adjusted in a second step in real time as the actual wind power data are gradually revealed. In a numerical example, the effectiveness of the procedure in incorporating energy supply from non-dispatchable renewable energy sources (RES) in production scheduling is shown under various conditions. Part B of this dissertation consists of Paper 5. As Papers 1 to 4, Paper 5 is also concerned with efficiently managing multi-stage production systems. Papers 1 to 4 concentrated on how to effectively tailor the operation of production stages to energy supply from WHRSs or RES and time-varying energy prices. In contrast to these works, Paper 5 focuses on how to attune the operation of production stages to human characteristics such as individual worker learning and forgetting. To this end, Paper 5 first develops a generic simulation model of a serial multi-stage production system subject to learning and forgetting effects. Subsequently, it carries out an extensive simulation experiment to identify parameters of the production stages and their interactions which exercise a significant influence on system performance. Paper 5 then proposes flexible buffer management rules to counteract the impact of adverse production parameter combinations detected in the preceding simulation experiment. In a second simulation experiment, the performance of these buffer management rules is evaluated under various input parameter combinations. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:90645&r=ene |
| By: | Johanna CHOUMERT (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI)); Pascale COMBES MOTEL (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI)); Pierre Leonard LE ROUX |
| Abstract: | Energy-use statistics in Tanzania reflect the country’s low level of industrialization and development. In 2016, only 16.9% of rural and 65.3% of urban inhabitants in mainland Tanzania were connected to some form of electricity. We use a nationally representative three-wave panel dataset (2008-2013) to contribute to the literature on household energy use decisions in Tanzania in the context of the stacking and energy ladder hypotheses. We firstly adopt a panel multinomial-logit approach to model the determinants of household cooking- and lighting-fuel choices. Secondly, we focus explicitly on energy stacking behaviour, proposing various ways of measuring what is inferred when stacking behaviour is thought of in the context of the energy transition and presenting household level correlates of energy stacking behaviour. Thirdly, since fuel uses have gender-differentiated impacts, we investigate women’s bargaining power in the decision-making process of household fuel choices. We find that whilst higher household incomes are strongly associated with a transition towards the adoption of more modern fuels, especially lighting fuels, this transition takes place in a context of significant fuel stacking. In Tanzania, government policy has been aimed mostly at connecting households to the electric grid. However, the public health, environmental and social benefits of access to modern energy sources are likely to be diminished in a context of significant fuel stacking. Lastly, we present evidence that the educational attainment of women in the household is an important aspect of household fuel choices. |
| Keywords: | Fuel choices, Intra-household bargaining, Sub-Saharan Africa. |
| JEL: | N5 Q41 O13 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1900&r=ene |
| By: | Selin, H.; Simula, L. |
| Abstract: | Ce document de travail analyse le degré d'effort nécessaire à l'atteinte des objectifs INDC des 13 pays du Deep Decarbonization Pathway Project. L'objectif est d'évaluer et de comparer les degrés d'effort requis pour atteindre les objectifs INDC, entre les pays, d'une part et, d'autre part, au regard de trajectoires de plus long terme (2050) s'inscrivant dans l'objectif global de limiter la hausse des températures en deçà de 2°C. Une méthodologie est mise en place pour transcrire les INDC en niveaux d'émissions de CO2 nettes du LULUCF. Le modèle POLES est ensuite utilisé pour révéler la valeur carbone implicite des INDC et permettre une comparabilité des objectifs nationaux entre eux. Enfin, la création d'un scénario INDCext permet d'appréhender les INDC au regard d'objectifs nationaux de plus long terme (2050) compatibles avec l'objectif global de limiter la hausse des températures en deçà de 2°C. |
| Keywords: | RECHAUFFEMENT CLIMATIQUE;EFFET DE SERRE;DEEP DECARBONIZATION PATHWAY PROJECT |
| JEL: | H21 H24 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gbl:wpaper:2017-03&r=ene |
| By: | Jaelani, Aan |
| Abstract: | This study confirms that renewable energy sources become the solution for energy development in Indonesia due to the increasingly depleted use of fossil-based energy, due to an increase in the population that increases energy consumption and waste in fuel consumption. The Qur'an has provided simple concepts and illustrations about renewable energy sources that can be utilized by humans, energy conservation, and energy enrichment. With the codification and content analysis approach to energy policy in Indonesia and energy themes in the Qur'an, this paper asserts that the Government of Indonesia's renewable energy policy focuses on providing and developing renewable energy as part of sustainable development. This renewable energy policy can be proven scientifically with the implementation of scientific Qur'anic terms about renewable energy sources such as water, geothermal, ocean, vegetation, and wind. The policy on energy conservation through energy saving becomes a religious obligation for every person, institution, and government because to meet the needs of consumers, maintain the survival of the community, and preserve the environment. |
| Keywords: | renewable energy, energy conservation, energy saving, energy economy |
| JEL: | Q28 Q43 Q48 Q57 Q58 Z12 |
| Date: | 2017–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83314&r=ene |
| By: | Boussena, S.; Locatelli, C. |
| Abstract: | Confronted with an increasingly competitive market in the European Union and the credible threat of a new entrant in the form of liquefied natural gas imports from the United States, Gazprom’s traditional export strategy is open to question. The company must decide whether it should launch a price war in order passively to adapt to impending competition and its role as a ‘residual supplier’ to the EU gas market, or whether it should take advantage of the current price uncertainty. This article explores the scope for long-term strategic action by Gazprom other than simply engaging in a price war. It is argued that Gazprom could forge a position as a key player in the EU gas market capable of playing the same role as Saudi Arabia does in the global oil market. |
| Keywords: | GAS;LNG;COMPETITION;EU;RUSSIA;GAZPROM |
| JEL: | Q41 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gbl:wpaper:2017-09&r=ene |
| By: | Philip Daniel; Alan Krupnick; Thornton Matheson; Peter Mullins; Ian Parry; Artur Swistak |
| Abstract: | This paper suggests that the environmental and commercial features of shale gas extraction do not warrant a significantly different fiscal regime than recommended for conventional gas. Fiscal policies may have a role in addressing some environmental risks (e.g., greenhouse gases, scarce water, local air pollution) though in some cases their net benefits may be modest. Simulation analyses suggest, moreover, that special fiscal regimes are generally less important than other factors in determining shale gas investments (hence there appears little need for them), yet they forego significant revenues. |
| Date: | 2017–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:17/254&r=ene |
| By: | Boussena, S.; Ionescu, O.; Locatelli, C. |
| Abstract: | Cet article étudie dans quelle mesure la Russie pourrait retarder une entrée massive du GNL américain en Europe en privilégiant une grande volatilité des cours sur le marché de gros du gaz en Europe. Dans un modèle de jeux d'options, caractérisé par la présence d'un fournisseur historique de gaz et d'un entrant potentiel, nous montrons que l'action visant à jouer sur l'incertitude de l'évolution du prix du gaz naturel peut prolonger d'un cran le retard de l'option d'entrée sur le marché d'un nouveau compétiteur. |
| Keywords: | JEUX D'OPTIONS;PRIX DU GAZ;MARCHES GAZIERS EUROPEENS;STRATEGIE GAZIERE RUSSE |
| JEL: | D81 Q30 Q40 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gbl:wpaper:2017-01&r=ene |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Naeem, Muhammad; Ahad, Muhammad; Tahir, Iqbal |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the stimulating role of natural resource abundance in financial development for the case of the USA over the period of 1960-2016. We included education, economic growth and capitalization as additional determinants of financial development in finance demand function. Thus, we applied traditional and recent unit root tests, accommodating unknown structural breaks in the series for examining the unit root properties of the variables. To examine cointegration between the variables, we apply the Bayer-Hanck cointegration approach. The robustness of cointegration relationship is tested by applying the bounds testing approach to cointegration. The empirical results show the presence of cointegration between financial development and its determinants. In the long run, we observe that natural resource abundance contributes to financial development. Education has a positive impact on financial development. A positive relationship exists between economic growth and financial development. Capitalization is inversely linked with financial development. The causality analysis reveals a feedback effect between natural resource abundance and financial development i.e. natural resource abundance causes financial development; in turn, financial development Granger causes natural resource abundance. This empirical evidence provides new insights for policy makers to use natural resource abundance as an economic tool to improve the performance of financial sector by considering the role of economic growth and education. |
| Keywords: | Natural Resources, Financial Development, USA |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2017–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:83280&r=ene |
| By: | Kanishka Kacker (Economics and Planning Unit, Indian Statistical Institute); Ian Lange (Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines) |
| Abstract: | There has been much discussion recently in the U.S. press about the fate of coal mining and its employees, specifically in the Appalachian region. This analysis looks at how Appalachian coal mining responds to changes in coal production from the Western US, whose mines are generally on federal land. Specifically we look at how an unexpected reduction in the ability to move coal from Wyoming to Eastern power plants in 2005-06 impacted the rate of opening and closure of mines in Appalachia. The findings reveal that restrictions in coal from federal lands leads to a reduction in the rate of Appalachian coal mine closure but no impact on the rate of coal mine openings. The results imply inter-regional coal mine substitution possibilities and shed light on the tradeoffs inherent in policies to encourage production in one region. |
| Keywords: | Coal switching, Railroads, Supply Shock |
| JEL: | L71 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mns:wpaper:wp201711&r=ene |
| By: | Bichler, Shimshon; Nitzan, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | This research note updates selected charts from three previous papers. The new data present a rather startling picture, suggesting that the Middle East – and the global political economy more generally – might face an important crossroads. Our assessment here rests on the analysis of capital as power, or CasP. Beginning in the late 1980s, we suggested that, since the late 1960s, the Middle East was greatly influenced by the capitalized power of a Weapondollar-Petrodollar Coalition – a loose coalition comprising the leading oil companies, the OPEC cartel, armament contractors, engineering firms and large financial institutions – whose differential accumulation benefitted from and in turn helped fuel and sustain Middle East ‘energy conflicts’. These conflicts, we argued, reverberated far beyond the region: they affected the ups and downs of global growth, the gyrations of inflation and, in some important respects, the very evolution of the capitalist mode of power. And this impact, it seems to us, is now being called into question. |
| Keywords: | conflict,differential accumulation,energy,Middle East |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:172198&r=ene |
| By: | Hilde C. Bjørnland; Vegard H. Larsen; Junior Maih |
| Abstract: | We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatility of macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or fewer oil price shocks did not play a major role in explaining the Great Moderation. Instead oil price shocks are recurrent sources of economic fluctuations. The most important factor reducing overall variability is a decline in the volatility of structural macroeconomic shocks. A change to a more responsive (hawkish) monetary policy regime also played a role. |
| Keywords: | Oil price, Great Moderation, New-Keynesian model, Markov Switching |
| JEL: | C11 E32 E42 Q43 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2017-79&r=ene |
| By: | Mikosch, Heiner; Solanko, Laura |
| Abstract: | GDP forecasters face tough choices over which leading indicators to follow and which forecasting models to use. To help resolve these issues, we examine a range of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP growth in a major emerging economy, Russia. Numerous useful indicators are identified and forecast pooling of three model classes (bridge models, MIDAS models and unrestricted mixed-frequency models) are shown to outperform simple benchmark models. We further separately examine forecast accuracy of each of the three model classes. Our results show that differences in performance of model classes are generally small, but for the period covering the Great Recession unrestricted mixed-frequency models and MIDAS models clearly outperform bridge models. Notably, the sets of top-performing indicators differ for our two subsample observation periods (2008Q1–2011Q4 and 2012Q1–2016Q4). The best indicators in the first period are traditional real-sector variables, while those in the second period consist largely of monetary, banking sector and financial market variables. This finding supports the notion that highly volatile periods of recession and subsequent recovery are driven by forces other than those that prevail in more normal times. The results further suggest that the driving forces of the Russian economy have changed since the global financial crisis. |
| JEL: | C53 E27 |
| Date: | 2017–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bof:bofitp:2017_019&r=ene |
| By: | Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric; Hubrich, Kirstin |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether the response of the macro-economy to oil price shocks undergoes episodic changes. Employing a regime-switching vector autoregressive model we identify two regimes that are characterized by qualitatively different patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks trigger only limited and short-lived adjustments in these variables. In the adverse regime, by contrast, oil price shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential driver of the dynamics characterising the adverse regime. The systematic response of monetary policy works against such second-round effects in the adverse regime but is insufficient to fully offset them. The model also delivers (conditional) probabilities for being (staying) in either regime, which may help interpret oil price fluctuations – and inform deliberations on the adequate policy response – in real-time. JEL Classification: E31, E52, C32 |
| Keywords: | inflation, inflation expectations, oil prices, regime switching models, time-varying transition probabilities |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172119&r=ene |
| By: | Uri Dadush |
| Abstract: | One cannot speak of a common jobs problem across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The countries at war – Syria, Yemen, Libya – are, of course, a story of themselves. Some countries not at war, notably Lebanon and Jordan, have seen huge inflows of refugees that have created large downward pressures on wages, especially in the low-skilled informal sector (Dadush & Niebuhr 2016). The remaining countries can be divided into two main groups. The energy importers such as Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia, have been unable to create sufficient jobs, especially for the young, and are the source of large diasporas. Officially, emigrants are 4-8% of the population and one can probably double that number if undocumented emigrants and the offspring born abroad are included. In contrast, the energy exporters such as Saudi Arabia have generated jobs in excess of their effective labor supply, have little emigration, and attracted foreign workers and their families which add up to some 30% to their native population. The United Arab Emirates and Qatar, oil exporters whose native population is much smaller than that of Saudi Arabia, have foreign born populations that represent as much as 80% of the total. |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:ppaper:pb-1743&r=ene |
| By: | Mika, Alina; Zumer, Tina |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between debt and growth in EU countries in the years 1995-2015. We investigate the debt-growth nexus in two alternative empirical set-ups: the traditional cross-county panel regressions and mean group estimations. We find evidence of a positive long-run relationship between private sector indebtedness and economic growth, and a negative relationship between public debt and long-run growth across EU countries. However, the more immediate impact of private sector debt on growth is found to be negative, and positive for the public sector debt. We find no conclusive evidence for a common debt threshold within EU countries, neither for the private nor for the public sector, but some indication of a non-linear effect of household debt. JEL Classification: O47, N14, H60 |
| Keywords: | cross-sectional dependence, debt, European Union countries, panel, threshold |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172118&r=ene |
| By: | Oleg Badunenko (Portsmouth Business School); |
| Abstract: | This chapter builds a model in which labor market regulations influence labor productivity growth through labor market. The proposed model decomposes labor productivity growth into components attributable to (i) change in efficiency, (ii) technological change, (iii) physical capital deepening, (iv) human capital accumulation, and (v) labor market regulations change. The empirical analysis using data from the Penn World Tables and Economic Freedom of the World Data is performed for 1970-1995 and 1995-2014. The findings can be summarized as follows. First, physical capital deepening is the major driving force behind productivity growth over the entire period. Labor market regulations change contributing next to nothing during 1970-1995, becomes second most important force of economic growth after 1995. Second, relatively rich nations benefit more from labor market regulations change than relatively poor nations. Finally, the contribution of labor market regulations change to growth is stronger for countries with less liberalized labor markets. |
| Keywords: | Data Envelopment Analysis, Efficiency, Economic Freedom of the World Data, Economic Growth, Income Distribution, Labor Market, Labor Market Regulations, Penn World Tables, Physical capital, Productivity |
| JEL: | D24 C14 O47 J21 |
| Date: | 2017–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pbs:ecofin:2017-07&r=ene |
| By: | Luís Aguiar-Conraria (NIPE and Economics Department, University of Minho); Maria Joana Soares (NIPE and Department of Mathematics and Applications, University of Minho.); Rita Sousa (NIPE and Economics Department, University of Minho) |
| Abstract: | Carbon price is a key variable in management and risk decisions in activities related to the burning of fossil fuels. Different major players in this market, such as polluters, regulators, and fi nancial actors have different time horizons. Using innovative multi-variate wavelet analysis tools, including partial wavelet coherency and partial wavelet gain, we study the link between carbon prices and final energy prices in the time and frequency dimensions in California´s carbon market, officially known as the California cap-and-trade program. We fi nd that gasoline prices lead an anti-phase relation with carbon prices. This result is very stable at lower frequencies (close to one-year period cycles), and it is also present before mid-2015 in the 20 ~ 34 weeks frequency-band. Regarding electricity, we find that at about 1 year frequencies, a rise in carbon prices is reflected in higher electricity prices. We conclude that the fi rst five years of compliance of the California cap-and-trade program supports the idea that emissions´trading is a signi cant measure for climate change mitigation, with visible rising carbon prices. The quantitative financial analytics we present here supports the continuation of the program after 2020. |
| Keywords: | Multivariate wavelet analysis; partial wavelet gain; partial wavelet coherency; carbon market; energy prices; California ETS. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nip:nipewp:13/2017&r=ene |
| By: | Pierre-Olivier Pineau; Simon Langlois-Bertrand |
| Abstract: | Le Québec a été la première province au Canada à mettre en œuvre, dès 2013, un marché du carbone avec plafonds d’émissions décroissants dans le temps, le système de plafonnement et d’échange de droits d’émission (SPEDE). Cela s’est fait dans un contexte d’objectifs de réduction d’émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES) plus ambitieux qu’au Canada, alors que les émissions québécoises par habitant sont les plus faibles de toutes les provinces. Par ailleurs, parce que les émissions non énergétiques représentent une plus grande proportion des émissions au Québec qu’au Canada, il y a moins d’opportunités de miser sur la substitution par des énergies à faible teneur en carbone et sur l’efficacité énergétique. Le gouvernement fédéral a annoncé en 2016 un plan canadien de lutte contre les changements climatiques. Celui-ci propose une tarification du carbone de deux types : une taxe (redevance) sur le carbone dès 2018, pour les produits pétroliers et le gaz naturel utilisés en transport et dans les bâtiments, combinée à un «régime de tarification fondé sur le rendement» (RTFR) pour les grands émetteurs de plus de 50 000 tonnes de CO2 équivalent (tCO2e) par an, pas avant 2019. La question de l’équivalence des approches québécoises et fédérale se pose donc, pour évaluer notamment leur efficacité à réduire les émissions de GES. |
| Date: | 2017–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cir:cirpro:2017rp-08&r=ene |
| By: | Katharina Rogge (Universität Hamburg, Germany); Markus Groth (Leuphana University Lueneburg, GermanyAuthor-Name:); Roland Schuhr (Universität Leipzig, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Im Rahmen des Beitrags untersuchen wir mithilfe des Regressionsansatzes, welchen Einfluss für die größten börsennotierten Unternehmen Deutschlands eine Auswahl unternehmensspezifischer Faktoren (Unternehmensgröße, Profitabilität, Sektorenzugehörigkeit, Beteiligungsstruktur, Status der Beantwortung, Vorjahresteilnahme) bei der Beantwortung folgender Fragestellungen besitzt: i) Wovon hängt die Teilnahme an der freiwilligen Klimaberichterstattung an CDP ab? ii) Wovon hängt die Qualität der freiwilligen Klimaberichterstattung an CDP ab? Der theoretische Teil der Untersuchung fokussiert die Befriedigung von Informationsbedürfnissen aller Anspruchsgruppen eines Unternehmens als Hauptmotiv für die freiwillige Bereitstellung klimarelevanter Daten und Strategien. Im Zuge dessen wird erläutert, wie auf dieser Grundlage eine Vertragsbeziehung zwischen einem Unternehmen und seinen Anspruchsgruppen effizient gestaltet werden kann. Dabei wird die freiwillige Offenlegung klimarelevanter Daten und Strategien beispielhaft als die unternehmerische Teilnahme an der CDP-Klimaberichterstattung analysiert. Die empirischen Auswertungen im Anschluss an die Vorstellung der Datenbasis sowie die statistische Hypothesenprüfung zeigen insbesondere, dass die Größe eines Unternehmens und seine Beteiligungsstruktur einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die hier zentralen Fragestellungen haben. |
| Keywords: | Betriebliches Umweltmanagement, CDP, Klimaberichterstattung, Klimareporting, Klimawandel, Umweltorientierte Unternehmensführung |
| JEL: | C12 M1 M14 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2017–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lue:wpaper:376&r=ene |
| By: | Steven Poelhekke |
| Abstract: | Most people are convinced that climate change is a threat and that it should somehow be dealt with. It is also clear that CO2 emissions are still too cheap and must be priced higher to sufficiently curtail emissions. Yet how high should a carbon tax be? Answering this question requires scientific insights on the costs and benefits of a carbon tax but also ethical - and thus political - judgements on how we value the damages from climate change that will happen in the near and in the far future. This paper reviews the evidence on the social cost of carbon and discusses global and unilateral policy options. It finds that a price of $77 per metric ton of carbon is defensible if we give 95% weight to damages occurring two generations (or 50 years) from now but higher if we want to further reduce the risk of catastrophic change. It is best implemented as part of trade agreements and in combination with R&D investment. |
| Keywords: | climate change; carbon tax; discounting; policy |
| JEL: | Q54 Q38 H20 O44 |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:579&r=ene |
| By: | Coindoz, L.; Criqui, P.; Mathy, S.; Mima, S. |
| Abstract: | Ce document de travail analyse le degré d'effort nécessaire à l'atteinte des objectifs INDC des 13 pays du Deep Decarbonization Pathway Project. L'objectif est d'évaluer et de comparer les degrés d'effort requis pour atteindre les objectifs INDC, entre les pays, d'une part et, d'autre part, au regard de trajectoires de plus long terme (2050) s'inscrivant dans l'objectif global de limiter la hausse des températures en deçà de 2°C. Une méthodologie est mise en place pour transcrire les INDC en niveaux d'émissions de CO2 nettes du LULUCF. Le modèle POLES est ensuite utilisé pour révéler la valeur carbone implicite des INDC et permettre une comparabilité des objectifs nationaux entre eux. Enfin, la création d'un scénario INDCext permet d'appréhender les INDC au regard d'objectifs nationaux de plus long terme (2050) compatibles avec l'objectif global de limiter la hausse des températures en deçà de 2°C. |
| Keywords: | RECHAUFFEMENT CLIMATIQUE;EFFET DE SERRE;DEEP DECARBONIZATION PATHWAY PROJECT |
| JEL: | Q47 Q57 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gbl:wpaper:2017-02&r=ene |
| By: | - |
| Abstract: | La hidroelectricidad es una de las formas más sustentable de generación de energía y con mayor potencial en los países en vías de desarrollo. Tomando en cuenta que su insumo principal es el agua, los aportes hídricos de la cuenca aguas arriba al sitio de las presas y obras de captación co-determinan la producción de energía en una relación cuasi-lineal. Por ende, los cambios en los niveles de precipitación y de temperatura afectan indirectamente los niveles de generación. En los últimos años, la subregión ha experimentado sequías recurrentes, con afectación directa en la producción de electricidad, emergiendo la preocupación por los impactos que el cambio climático puede tener en las centrales hidroeléctricas. En este estudio se presenta un análisis de cómo este fenómeno podría afectar la producción de dos centrales hidroeléctricas en las próximas décadas: Fortuna en Panamá y Sabana Yegua en la República Dominicana. |
| Keywords: | ENERGIA HIDROELECTRICA, CAMBIO CLIMATICO, CENTRALES HIDROELECTRICAS, RECURSOS ENERGETICOS, POLITICA ENERGETICA, ASPECTOS AMBIENTALES, ESTADISTICAS DE ENERGIA, ESTADISTICAS AMBIENTALES, HYDROELECTRIC POWER, CLIMATE CHANGE, HYDROELECTRIC POWER PLANTS, ENERGY RESOURCES, ENERGY POLICY, ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS, ENERGY STATISTICS, ENVIRONMENTAL STATISTICS |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col094:42426&r=ene |
| By: | Raphaël Homayoun Boroumand (ESG Research Lab - ESG Management School); Stéphane Goutte (LED - Université Paris 8); Thomas Péran (Paris School of Business); Thomas Porcher (Paris School of Business) |
| Date: | 2017–11–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01644639&r=ene |