nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2017‒09‒17
twenty-one papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. The Personality Profiles of Early Adopters of Energy-Efficient Technology By Ante Busic-Sontic; Franz Fuerst
  2. Energy Consumption and Health Outcomes in Africa By Adel Ben Youssef; Laurence Lannes; Christophe Rault; Agnès Soucat
  3. Affordable and reliable power for all in Vietnam progress report By Minh Ha-Duong; Hoai-Son Nguyen
  4. Investigating fuel poverty in the transport sector: toward a composite indicator of vulnerability By Audrey Berry; Y Jouffe; Nicolas Coulombel; Celine Guivarch
  5. Energy Product Service Systems as core element of energy transition in the household sector: The Greenplay project By Michael Hamwi; Jérémy Legardeur; Iban Lizarralde
  6. Expansion of photovoltaic technology (PV) as a solution for water energy nexus in rural areas of Iran: Comparative case study between Germany and Iran By von Heyking, Carl-Anton; Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali
  7. Did the Renewable Fuel Standard Shift Market Expectations of the Price of Ethanol? By Christiane Baumeister; Reinhard Ellwanger; Lutz Kilian
  8. Implementing Flexible Demand: Real-time Price vs. Market Integration By Florian K\"uhnlenz; Pedro H. J. Nardelli; Santtu Karhinen; Rauli Svento
  9. La dynamique des régimes de régulation de la sûreté nucléaire française à la lumière de ses instruments By Olivier Chanton; Michael Mangeon; Frédérique Pallez; Grégory Rolina
  10. Production Function with Electricity Consumption and Policy Implications in Portugal By Shahbaz, Muhammad; BENKRAIEM, Ramzi; MILOUDI, Anthony; Lahiani, Amine
  11. Socio-economic impacts of co-firing in Vietnam: The case of Ninh Binh Coal Power Plant By An Ha Truong; Hoang Anh Tran; Minh Ha-Duong
  12. Swing Contracts with Dynamic Reserves for Flexible Service Management By Ma, Shanshan; Wang, Zhaoyu; Tesfatsion, Leigh
  13. Additive energy forward curves in a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework By Fred Espen Benth; Marco Piccirilli; Tiziano Vargiolu
  14. Exploring the Relationship between Energy Usage Segregation and Environmental Degradation in N-11 Countries By Sinha, Avik; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Balsalobre, Daniel
  15. Entwicklung und Stand von Bürgerenergiegesellschaften und Energiegenossenschaften in Deutschland By Kahla, Franziska; Holstenkamp, Lars; Müller, Jakob R.; Degenhart, Heinrich
  16. The response of income inequality to positive oil rents shocks in Iran: Implications for the post-sanction period By Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza; Krieger, Tim
  17. Oil Prices and Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from Advanced and Developing Economies By Sangyup Choi; Davide Furceri; Prakash Loungani; Saurabh Mishra; Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro
  18. Coercive state, resisting society, political and economic development in Iran By Mehrdad Vahabi
  19. Pricing sovereign debt in resource rich economies By Thomas McGregor
  20. The Safe Carbon Budget By Frederick van der Ploeg
  21. The value of air quality in Chinese cities: Evidence from labor and property market outcomes By Xuan Huang; Bruno Lanz

  1. By: Ante Busic-Sontic; Franz Fuerst
    Abstract: This study investigates whether energy efficiency investments are driven by differences in personality traits among homeowners. Using data on nearly 3,000 households in Germany, we estimate that compared to the median level, homeowners in the lowest quartile of Openness to Experience have 5.0%-23.4% lower propensity to invest in capital-intensive energy efficiency measures, while homeowners in the highest quartile of Agreeableness are 7.7%-18.0% less likelyto do so. Splitting the energy efficiency investments into two groups yields stronger effects of the same two personality traits for window modernisations and thermal insulation installations, whereas no impact of the personality traits is observed for solar energy and other alternative energy systems, possibly because subsidies for the latter were introduced much earlier in Germany, overriding any effects of personality traits in the investment decisions. These findings may also suggest that personality traits are of greater significance for marginal investors.
    Keywords: Energy efficiency, personality traits, technology, diffusion, residential sector
    Date: 2017
  2. By: Adel Ben Youssef (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Laurence Lannes (The World Bank - The World Bank); Christophe Rault (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UO - Université d'Orléans); Agnès Soucat (WHO - World Health Organisation - WHO(OMS))
    Abstract: We examine causal links between energy consumption and health indicators (Mortality rate under-5, life expectancy, greenhouse effect, and government expenditure per capita) for a sample of 16 African countries over the period 1971-2010 (according to availability of countries' data). We use the panel-data approach of Kónya (2006), which is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. Our results show that health and energy consumption are strongly linked in Africa. Unilateral causality is found from energy consumption to life expectancy and child under-5 mortality for Senegal, Morocco, Benin, DRC, Algeria, Egypt, and South Africa. At the same time, we found a bilateral causality between energy consumption and health indicators in Nigeria. In particular, our findings suggest that electricity consumption Granger causes health outcomes for several African countries.
    Keywords: Energy consumption,Electricity,Health outcomes,Africa
    Date: 2016–09–15
  3. By: Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - University of sciences and technologies of hanoi); Hoai-Son Nguyen (CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - University of sciences and technologies of hanoi, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Keywords: Viet Nam, Energy poverty
    Date: 2016–10–31
  4. By: Audrey Berry (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Y Jouffe (LAB'URBA - LAB'URBA - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Nicolas Coulombel (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech); Celine Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the issue of fuel poverty and of its measurement in the transport sector. We seek to identify households who run the risk of facing difficulties if fuel prices increase. We show that fuel poverty indicators from the domestic sector are not satisfactory in this regard. They fail to take into account three specificities of the transport sector: (1) the diversity of travel needs, (2) restriction behaviours, and (3) variable capacities to adapt. We propose a composite indicator that targets factors of vulnerabilities. In contrast to the previous indicators, it does not solely focus on budgetary aspects but also reflects conditions of mobility. Three levels of exposition to rising fuel prices are considered, depending on the combinations of factors. We test this indicator on French data and find that 7,8% of French households are identified fuel poor, a further 7,4% fuel vulnerable and a further 3,7% fuel dependent.
    Keywords: Transport,Fuel poverty,Vulnerability,Measurement
    Date: 2016–08
  5. By: Michael Hamwi (ESTIA Recherche - Ecole Supérieure des Technologies Industrielles Avancées (ESTIA)); Jérémy Legardeur (ESTIA Recherche - Ecole Supérieure des Technologies Industrielles Avancées (ESTIA)); Iban Lizarralde (ESTIA Recherche - Ecole Supérieure des Technologies Industrielles Avancées (ESTIA))
    Abstract: This paper focuses on Business Model innovation practices within the specific field of energy transition in the household sector. In recent years the value chain between the stakeholders involved in this field has been modified due to recent technological changes, which poses a threat for current companies and an opportunity for insiders. This research work has been carried out within the Greenplay project, which is an EU funded Horizon H2020 project. This project aims to develop new business models that reduce energy consumption in the household sector and can be successfully implemented. In this paper, we present a framework based on intersection of two group of categories. The first one is issued from energy transition presented by consumer behaviour, energy efficiency and renewable energy and the second is abstracted from Product-Service System (PSS). The methodology is based on defining the characteristics of a Product Service System in general followed by Smart PSS (integrated smart product and e-service) qualities and the current ESCo (Energy Service Company) business model characteristics. Finally based on aforementioned analysis on energy transition and Product-Service System, we discuss a set of Servicizing energy business models for energy transition in household sector. The main objective is to shed light on the ability of designing new business models (BMs), in household sector, as a result of integrating PSS with the emerging trends for sustainable energy. In this study, a systematic literature review is conducted related to energy business models. Furthermore, the proposed framework is a crossing classification based on criteria concerning PSS and various energy production and consumption BM. Finally the characteristics of an innovative business model for energy transition in household sector can be transposed to other sectors, mainly those who deal with Product Service System. In the second phase of the Greenplay project the authors will apply the proposed framework to the use cases identified in the project: households that are able to fine-tune their energy use thanks to smart meters that provide free access to data in real-time. The goal is to get feedback from researchers that have already implement innovative Business Models in this or other sector, as well as to discuss with researchers and practitioners that have analysed firms that have successfully innovated their business models. This feedback will allow us to adjust the framework before the experiment with the companies of the Greenplay project.
    Keywords: Product-Service System,Energy,Business models,Households,Energy transition
    Date: 2016–07–13
  6. By: von Heyking, Carl-Anton; Jaghdani, Tinoush Jamali
    Abstract: Iran is suffering from groundwater resources depletion through the excessive subsidized electricity for water pumping and the resulting disproportionate water consumption in agriculture. The creation of an alternative income sources for farmers and elimination of heavy subsidies for groundwater pumping simultaneously is a possible option for dealing with this threat. By expanding photovoltaic technology (PV) in rural areas, farmers can have an alternative source of income by supply and sale of renewable energy through feed-in tariff (FiT) mechanism. The latest decision of the Ministry of Energy in Iran in 2016 for purchasing electricity which is generated by low capacity PV owners can be a solution for the above mentioned problem. This study undertakes a comparison between Germany and Iran of the development of decentralized power system and PV expansion by private owners. In direct comparison to Germany, Iran has a far higher solar radiation and significant potential for the generation of electricity through PVs. This study illuminates both countries' costs of conventional/renewable electricity power, their changing FiT's for renewable power and the renewable energy laws. Comparing the price development shows that a lucrative business arises by selling electricity for the Iranian owners of PV whereas in Germany the trend of self-consumption is clearly preferred. Innovative policies are needed to tackle infrastructural and economic challenges to exploit this potential in Iran.
    Keywords: Iran,Germany,photovoltaic technology (PV),groundwater depletion,electricity subsidy,feedintariff (FiT),decentralized power system,renewable energy laws
    Date: 2017
  7. By: Christiane Baumeister; Reinhard Ellwanger; Lutz Kilian
    Abstract: It is commonly believed that the response of the price of corn ethanol (and hence of the price of corn) to shifts in biofuel policies operates in part through market expectations and shifts in storage demand, yet to date it has proved difficult to measure these expectations and to empirically evaluate this view. We utilize a recently proposed methodology to estimate the market’s expectations of the prices of ethanol, unfinished motor gasoline and crude oil at horizons from three months to one year. We quantify the extent to which price changes were anticipated by the market, the extent to which they were unanticipated, and how the risk premium in these markets has evolved. We show that the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is likely to have increased ethanol price expectations by as much as $1.50 in the year before and in the year after the implementation of the RFS had started. Our analysis of the term structure of expectations supports the view that a shift in ethanol storage demand starting in 2005 caused an increase in the price of ethanol. There is no conclusive evidence that the tightening of the RFS in 2008 shifted market expectations, but our analysis suggests that policy uncertainty about how to deal with the blend wall raised the risk premium in the ethanol futures market in mid-2013 by as much as 50 cents at longer horizons. Finally, we present evidence against a tight link from ethanol price expectations to corn price expectations and hence to storage demand for corn in 2005-06.
    Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods, Financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments
    JEL: Q18 Q28 Q42 Q58
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Florian K\"uhnlenz; Pedro H. J. Nardelli; Santtu Karhinen; Rauli Svento
    Abstract: This paper proposes an agent-based model that combines both spot and balancing electricity markets. From this model, we develop a multi-agent simulation to study the integration of the consumers' flexibility into the system. Our study identifies the conditions that real-time prices may lead to higher electricity costs, which in turn contradicts the usual claim that such a pricing scheme reduces cost. We show that such undesirable behavior is in fact systemic. Due to the existing structure of the wholesale market, the predicted demand that is used in the formation of the price is never realized since the flexible users will change their demand according to such established price. As the demand is never correctly predicted, the volume traded through the balancing markets increases, leading to higher overall costs. In this case, the system can sustain, and even benefit from, a small number of flexible users, but this solution can never upscale without increasing the total costs. To avoid this problem, we implement the so-called "exclusive groups." Our results illustrate the importance of rethinking the current practices so that flexibility can be successfully integrated considering scenarios with and without intermittent renewable sources.
    Date: 2017–09
  9. By: Olivier Chanton (IRSN - Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN)); Michael Mangeon (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IRSN - Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire (IRSN)); Frédérique Pallez (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Grégory Rolina (CGS i3 - Centre de Gestion Scientifique i3 - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris - PSL - PSL Research University - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: L’accident de Fukushima a provoqué une prise de conscience sans précédent concernant l’importance des risques naturels à l’échelle internationale. En mettant en cause plusieurs aspects institutionnels, et notamment les liens de dépendance entre l’autorité de sûreté nucléaire et le ministère de l’industrie japonais, les analyses de l’accident posent également la question de la gouvernance et de la régulation des risques nucléaires avec une acuité nouvelle (Delamotte 2013 ; IAEA 2015). Le projet de recherche pluri-institutionnel AGORAS, lancé en 2013, s’intéresse ainsi à la gestion interorganisationnelle des risques et des accidents nucléaires. Ce projet vise une meilleure compréhension des régimes de régulation (Hood, Rothstein et al. 2001) des risques nucléaires et de leur dynamique d’évolution. La présente communication, qui s’inscrit dans cette action de recherche, s’intéresse à plusieurs instruments de régulation des risques. Ceux-ci sont en effet des composantes notables des régimes de régulation et constituent de véritables « traceurs » des changements qui se produisent tant sur le plan institutionnel, politique, social ou économique. L’étude de leur genèse et l’analyse des processus de transformation et d’appropriation qui leur sont attachés semblent ainsi de nature à permettre de mieux comprendre le régime français de régulation de la sûreté nucléaire et ses évolutions. Le présent papier se propose donc de décrire sous cet angle les premiers résultats d’une étude comparative de plusieurs instruments de régulation des risques climatiques. Ce travail adopte une perspective articulant trois courants de recherche : celui consacré à l’instrumentation de l’action publique, qui a connu des développements importants en France grâce aux recherches de Lascoumes et Le Galès (2005 ; Halpern, Lascoumes et al. 2014) ; des travaux qui analysent la conception et la mise en œuvre d’outils de gestion (Moisdon 1997 ; de Vaujany 2005 ; Aggeri et Labatut 2010) ; les recherches qui appréhendent, dans une perspective macroscopique, à la fois socio-politique et historique, le gouvernement des techno-sciences, dont le nucléaire est à la fois un représentant emblématique et un cas spécifique (Pestre 2014 ; Boudia et Demortain 2014 ; Hecht 2004). Pour cette recherche, nous proposons la définition suivante de l’instrument de régulation des risques : il est un dispositif à la fois technique et social, fondé sur des savoirs produits et mobilisés par un collectif d’acteurs, agissant au sein d’un « régime de régulation des risques », et s’insérant dans un contexte institutionnel et historique spécifique. Notre analyse des processus de conception des instruments de régulation des risques se focalise donc sur les savoirs mobilisés et les cadres cognitifs au sein desquels s’opère la conception de l’instrument ; sur les relations entre acteurs impliqués, considérés comme des représentants des organisations auxquelles ils appartiennent, insérées dans un cadre institutionnel donné ; sur les communautés de travail formées par les acteurs. Notre analyse s’intéresse in fine aux conceptions du rapport régulateur/régulé portées par les instruments, révélées notamment à l’occasion des controverses apparues au cours du processus de conception. D’un point de vue méthodologique, une approche généalogique et comparative dans le domaine des risques climatiques nous a semblé particulièrement adaptée. En effet, ce domaine permet de couvrir une large période, depuis le lancement du parc électronucléaire français jusqu’à aujourd’hui. On peut ainsi appréhender les effets de divers facteurs d’évolution, notamment relatifs au cadre institutionnel de régulation de la sûreté, et tenir compte de l’apparition de problématiques nouvelles. A cet égard, la question plus récente du changement climatique et de ses effets reconnus sur la fréquence et l’intensité des événements climatiques, nous permet d’interroger la manière dont l’émergence de conceptions, d’outils et de savoirs scientifiques nouveaux sur le climat façonnent (ou non) la régulation des risques nucléaires. Par ailleurs, le périmètre d’étude retenu permet d’effectuer des comparaisons entre plusieurs instruments, prenant en charge, au sein d’une catégorie relativement homogène – les risques climatiques extrêmes, une variété de risques (inondations, canicules, grands froids, étiages sévères, etc.) Dans un premier temps, nous décrirons les principales caractéristiques et évolutions institutionnelles dans lequel s’inscrivent les instruments de régulation des risques étudiés. Nous détaillerons ensuite les processus de conception ayant abouti à ces instruments, en mettant l’accent sur la nature des savoirs mobilisés et des relations entre les différents acteurs. Les comparaisons à la fois « longitudinales » effectuées sur les différents instruments qui se sont succédés, relatifs à un même risque (inondation), et « transversales » sur des instruments analogues orientés vers des risques différents (référentiels « grand froid » et « grand chaud ») nous permettront alors de déboucher sur différentes conjectures : •nous mettons au jour la fabrique des nombreux compromis qui apparaissent comme des caractéristiques du processus de conception de ces instruments, résultant notamment du caractère lacunaire des savoirs disponibles et des relations entre acteurs telles qu’elles sont cadrées par les logiques organisationnelles et institutionnelles qui pèsent sur eux ; •nous suggérons que les récentes transformations institutionnelles, aussi importantes soient-elles, ne remettent pas encore massivement en cause le caractère négocié des relations entre acteurs du régime de régulation, mais que les facteurs nouveaux qu’elles introduisent, notamment la publicisation des débats, pourraient transformer, à terme, l’équilibre entre les acteurs et rendre le système plus contraignant ; •nous constatons, au passage, le faible impact de la forme juridique de l’instrument de régulation adopté dans l’accroissement de ce caractère contraignant ; nous montrons en effet que le découplage entre objectifs de sureté et leur traduction opérationnelle par l’exploitant, reflet d’un point essentiel de la doctrine de sûreté actuelle (la responsabilité de l’exploitant) reporte la spécification précise des actions dans les outils produits par l’exploitant, qui ne relèvent pas stricto sensu d’un régime juridique ; •nous abordons enfin, à la lumière de ces éléments, la question, classique dans le champ de la régulation des risques (cf. Borraz, 2015), de la convergence, dans le secteur nucléaire, des formes d’instruments et, plus généralement, des régimes de régulation des risques, vers un modèle unique.
    Keywords: instrument,risques climatiques,mise à l'agenda,Sûreté nucléaire
    Date: 2016–11–16
  10. By: Shahbaz, Muhammad; BENKRAIEM, Ramzi; MILOUDI, Anthony; Lahiani, Amine
    Abstract: Using a sample of quarterly data, we investigate the effect of electricity consumption, capital formation and financial development on economic growth in Portugal. A positive (negative) shock of electricity consumption is estimated to have increased (decreased) economic growth. Economic growth is positively affected by positive shock stems in capital. A positive (negative) shock in financial development declines (increases) economic growth. These findings reveal that (a) Portugal is still an energy-dependent economy; (b) energy is one of the major inputs for economic growth and development; (c) a conservation energy policy should not be implemented because energy is an important driver of growth; (d) economic growth enhances capital formation and not the opposite. Hence, it appears more relevant to boost economic growth before enhancing capital formation; (e) financial development does not appear to be an important catalyst for economic growth. Findings also highlight (f) the relevance of the recent energy policy implemented in Portugal and (g) the need to limit energy imports by means of producing electricity through renewable energy to reduce the external debt level in Portugal, especially after the 2008 crisis.
    Keywords: Production Function, Asymmetries, Portugal
    JEL: A1
    Date: 2017–09–02
  11. By: An Ha Truong (CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - University of sciences and technologies of hanoi); Hoang Anh Tran (CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - University of sciences and technologies of hanoi); Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - University of sciences and technologies of hanoi)
    Abstract: Co-firing biomass with coal is a relatively low-cost technology to utilize biomass for electricity production compared to dedicated biomass power plant. Co-firing could help to reduce the negative impact of coal power plants to economy, environment and society. Vietnam has potential to develop co-firing base on the abundant of biomass resources and because Vietnam will continue to build more coal-fired power plant in the next 2 decades as stated in the latest National Power Development Plan. Among the co-firing technologies, direct co-firing is the most suitable for Vietnam context. Despite of low biomass ratio, direct co-firing offers low investment cost and could utilize most of the biomass feedstock. Vietnam has huge biomass potential, especially the agriculture and forestry residues. These biomasses should be considered first as feedstock for co-firing. Biomass pellets is also a good choice in term of technical features and local supply. However, the price of pellets is not yet competitive with coal or agricultural residues. Economic benefit of co-firing would be higher in the plants that has following features: assess to stable biomass supply, biomass price competitive with coal, incentives and support in term of market for renewable energy utilization and waste reduction. Vietnam should start experimenting co-firing in the coal power plants that located in the area where biomass resource is available, easy to collect and deliver to the plant, using imported coal such as Vinh Tan 2, Duyen Hai 1, Long Phuoc 1…; or the plants that are soon or already depreciated such as Ninh Binh, Uong Bi or Pha Lai to utilize the existing infrastructures. The case study of co-firing 5% rice straw with coal in Ninh Binh Coal Power Plant shows that co-firing could bring benefit to the plant owner in the condition that lack supporting mechanism for co-firing as well as with the absent of carbon credit. Farmers and workers that work in biomass supply chain also benefit from co-firing, especially farmers. In addition, co-firing provide significant positive externalities, in which the most notable is health benefit from reducing air-borne pollutants. Greenhouse gas emissions reduction adds a small part to the overall benefit of co-firing.
    Keywords: co-firing, vietnam, straw
    Date: 2016–11
  12. By: Ma, Shanshan; Wang, Zhaoyu; Tesfatsion, Leigh
    Abstract: The increasing penetration of variable energy resources in modern electric power systems requires additional flexibility in ancillary service provision to maintain reliable and efficient grid operations. However, full recognition and appropriate compensation of this flexibility is difficult to ensure within current power market designs due to rigidities in service definitions and requirements. For example, reserve requirements (RRs) are typically set in advance at administratively determined levels. If RRs are too large, wasteful expenditures result; and, if RRs are too small, high real-time costs are incurred for peak generation and/or load curtailment. To address these problems, this paper proposes a new mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) formulation for the optimal clearing of a day-ahead market based on swing contracts and a dynamic reserve method permitting the daily adaptive updating of reserve zones. Numerical examples based on a 5-bus test system are used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed new day-ahead market design.
    Date: 2017–09–04
  13. By: Fred Espen Benth; Marco Piccirilli; Tiziano Vargiolu
    Abstract: One of the peculiarities of power and gas markets is the delivery mechanism of forward contracts. The seller of a futures contract commits to deliver, say, power, over a certain period, while the classical forward is a financial agreement settled on a maturity date. Our purpose is to design a Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework for an additive, mean-reverting, multicommodity market consisting of forward contracts of any delivery period. The main assumption is that forward prices can be represented as affine functions of a universal source of randomness. This allows us to completely characterize the models which prevent arbitrage opportunities. In this respect, we prove two results on the martingale property of stochastic exponentials. The first allows to validate measure changes made of two components: an Esscher-type density and a Girsanov transform with stochastic and unbounded kernel. The second uses a different approach and works for the case of continuous density. Within this framework, we introduce two models: a generalized Lucia-Schwartz model and a cross-commodity cointegrated market.
    Date: 2017–09
  14. By: Sinha, Avik; Shahbaz, Muhammad; Balsalobre, Daniel
    Abstract: Numerous studies regarding the economic growth-environmental pollution link have struggled to determine the effects of various forms of energy consumption on environmental degradation, particularly in the context of emerging economies. This study examines the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for CO2 emissions in N-11 countries during 1990-2014 by segregating three forms of energy consumption (renewable, biomass and non-renewable). Urbanization and trade openness are additional explanatory variables that are used in the empirical framework. Using the Generalized Moments Method (GMM), the empirical evidence confirms the presence of an N-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation for N-11 countries. This study analyzed the interaction effects among trade openness, biomass consumption and economic growth; these interactions had a negative impact on CO2 emissions levels of N-11 countries. Suitable policy recommendations have been provided based on the detailed results.
    Keywords: Environmental Kuznets Curve; Biomass Energy; Trade openness; Renewable energy
    JEL: A1
    Date: 2017–09–04
  15. By: Kahla, Franziska; Holstenkamp, Lars; Müller, Jakob R.; Degenhart, Heinrich
    Abstract: In the paper, the authors describe an estimation of the number and development of community energy companies and energy cooperatives in Germany. The analysis is based on two databases that are maintained by the authors. An increase in the number of new community energy companies in Germany can be observed until 2014. In 2014 at the latest, the number of newly founded energy cooperatives decreased. The decline could only partly be compensated by an increase in the number of limited partnerships with a limited liability company as general partner (GmbH & Co. KG). This shift from the cooperative model to the limited partnership model is linked to a shift in the predominant electricity generation technology. An increase in onshore wind energy can be observed while photovoltaics had to struggle with a shrinking market. Moreover, more bankruptcies and liquidations have been observed since 2009 for community energy companies and energy cooperatives. The existing community energy companies are mostly producing electricity while only a smaller group runs energy grids, especially for heat distribution (small district heating networks). The main focus of community energy companies and energy cooperatives lays on the production of energy through onshore wind and photovoltaics. Bavaria, Schleswig-Holstein, Lower Saxony and North Rhine-Westphalia are the regional core areas of these companies.
    Keywords: Community Energy, Energy Cooperatives, Financial Participation
    JEL: L31 Q42 Q49
    Date: 2017–05
  16. By: Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza; Krieger, Tim
    Abstract: We study the short and long run responses of income inequality to the positive oil and gas rents per capita shocks in Iran from 1973 to 2012. Using vector autoregression (VAR)-based impulse response functions, we find a positive and statistically significant response of income inequality to oil rents booms within 4 years after the shock. The Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) results show that a 10 percent increase in oil and gas rents per capita leads to 1.1 percent increase in income inequality in the long run. The results are robust after controlling for income-distribution channels in Iran. Our analysis can help policy makers to evaluate and accommodate the possible positive or negative effects of lifting sanctions on inequalities in Iran.
    Keywords: oil rents,inequality,VAR,ARDL,sanctions,Iran
    JEL: Q33 Q38 D63
    Date: 2017
  17. By: Sangyup Choi (Yonsei University); Davide Furceri (IMF); Prakash Loungani (IMF); Saurabh Mishra (IMF); Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro (IMF)
    Abstract: We study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on domestic inflation using an unbalanced panel of 72 advanced and developing economies over the period from 1970 to 2015. We find that a 10 percent increase in global oil inflation increases, on average, domestic inflation by about 0.4 percentage on impact, with the effect vanishing after two years and being similar between advanced and developing economies. We also find that the effect is asymmetric, with positive oil price shocks having a larger effect than negative ones. The impact of oil price shocks, however, has declined over time due in large part to a better conduct of monetary policy. We further examine the transmission channels of oil price shocks on domestic inflation during the recent decades, by making use of a monthly dataset from 2000 to 2015. The results suggest that the share of transport in the CPI basket and energy subsidies are the most robust factors in explaining cross-country variations in the effects of oil price shocks during the this period.
    Keywords: oil price shocks, inflation pass-through, monetary policy, local projections
    JEL: E31 E37 Q43
    Date: 2017–09
  18. By: Mehrdad Vahabi (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In my studies, I have explored the political economy of Iran and particularly the relationship between the state and socioeconomic development in this country. The importance of the oil revenue in economic development of contemporary Iran has been underlined since the early seventies and a vast literature on the rentier state and authoritarian modernization has scrutinized the specificities of the political and economic natural resource 'curse' in Iran. A new critical social history of the oil industry has recently endeavored to reconsider the spread effects of this industry on the emergence of new cities and labor activities. In this sense, the impact of oil revenue on economic development should be mitigated: it has not been only a 'curse' but also a 'blessing'. The precious results of natural resource curse or blessing notwithstanding, this approach is insufficient to explain why some predatory states reliant on natural resources could contribute to economic development while others hinder such development. Two recent examples provide a salient illustration: why did the Shah's regime which was dependent on oil revenues enhance economic development during 1962-1974, while Ahmadinjead's two terms presidency (2005-2013) imped economic growth despite the quadrupling of oil revenues? In this essay, I will first introduce my theoretical framework and distinguish two types of predatory states, i.e. inclusive and exclusive (section 1). I will then apply this framework to explain oil and economic development (section 2). Section 3 will be devoted to the Shah's regime as an inclusive predatory state, and section 4 to Ahmadinjead's presidency as an illustration of an exclusive predatory state. A short conclusion will follow.
    Keywords: Capital flight,Captive, Intermediary and Fugitive assets,Confiscatory regimes,Inclusive and Exclusive Predatory States,Islamic Republic of Iran,Land Reform,Oil revenues,the Shah regime
    Date: 2017–09–07
  19. By: Thomas McGregor
    Abstract: This paper investigates the link between commodity price movements and risk premiums in resource-dependent,developing economies. I develop a stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy that receives a stream of resourc erevenues.The government sells bonds to foreign investors which it can renege on in the future, at some cost, whilst international investors form expectations on the likelihood of sovereign default. This delivers an endogenous risk premium which is inversely related to the price of oil.The model is able to explain a large proportion of the business cycle fl uctuations in interest-rate spreads in resource dependent developing economies. I then ask how specific structural features of developing economies affect the relationship between commodity prices and the optimal price of sovereig ndebt, including:a higher dependence on natural resource revenues, impatient consumers and governments,a higher degree of risk-aversion, and a lower ability to substitute consumption inter-temporally. Including them in the model significantly improves the ability of the model to explain the key macroeconomic co-movements in a resource rich, developing economy context. Model simulations reveal an interesting policy insight. An endogenous risk premium that is driven by falling oil prices, provides an additional rationale for a volatility fund in which liquidity buffers are accumulated to manage debt repayments. These buffers should be larger the stronger the link between oil prices and the domestic economy is, the more impatient policymakers are and the more willing they are to substitute current for future consumption.
    Keywords: Pricing sovereign debt, default, natural resources, BBC, volatility fund
    JEL: E13 E32 E44 F34 O11 O13 O16 H63
    Date: 2017
  20. By: Frederick van der Ploeg
    Abstract: Cumulative emissions drive peak global warming and determine the safe carbon budget compatible with staying below 2oC or 1.5oC. The safe carbon budget is lower if uncertainty about the transient climate response is high and risk tolerance low. Together with energy costs this budget determines the constrained welfare-maximizing carbon price and how quickly fossil fuel is replaced by renewable energy and how much of it is abated. This price is the sum of a gradual damages component familiar from the unconstrained optimal carbon price highlighted in economic studies and a Hotelling component for the additional price needed to ensure that the safe carbon budget is never violated familiar from IAM studies. If policy makers ignore damages, as in the cost-minimizing temperature constraint literature, a more rapidly rising carbon price results. The alternative of adjusting damages upwards to factor in the peak warming constraint leads initially to a higher carbon price which rises less rapidly.
    Keywords: peak warming target, climate uncertainty, risk tolerance, Pigouvian damamges, Hotelling rule, carbon price
    Date: 2017
  21. By: Xuan Huang; Bruno Lanz
    Abstract: Using a dual-market sorting model of workers' location decisions, this paper studies the capitalization of air pollution in wages and property prices across Chinese cities. To account for endogeneity of air pollution in the determination of wages and property prices, we exploit quasi-experimental variations in air quality induced by a policy subsidizing coal-based winter heating in northern China, and document a discontinuity in average air quality for cities located north and south of the policy boundary. Using data for all 288 Chinese cities in 2011, we estimate an equilibrium relationship between wages and house prices for the entire system of Chinese cities, and specify a regression discontinuity design to quantify how variation in air quality induced by the policy affects this relationship locally. Our preferred estimates of the elasticity of wages and house prices with respect to PM10 concentration are 0.53 and -0.71 respectively. At the average of our sample, the willingness to pay for a marginal reduction in PM10 concentration is CNY 261.28 (about USD 40.50), with a significant share reflected in labor market outcomes.
    Keywords: Hedonic model; Air pollution; Labor market; House prices; Local public goods; Regression discontinuity
    JEL: H41 J31 R31 Q53
    Date: 2017–09

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