nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2017‒07‒02
thirty-one papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Interactions between market reform and a carbon price in China’s power sector By Fei Teng; Frank Jotzo; Xin Wang
  2. Are population and international trade the main factors for environmental damage in China? By Vu, Binh
  3. Decomposing the South African CO2 Emissions within a BRICS Countries Context the Energy Rebound Hypothesis By Roula Inglesi-Lotz
  4. Paris after Trump: An Inconvenient Insight By Christoph Böhringer; Thomas F. Rutherford
  5. The role of the Eastern member states in the European Union's energy and climate policy By Olgun, Cenk
  6. The new Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy and the politics of municipal climate data By Friederike Gesing
  7. Assessment of Global Energy Demand Until 2050 By Lugovoy, Olåg; Potashnikîv, Vladimir
  8. Willingness to Pay for Solar Panels and Smart Grids By Tunç Durmaz; Aude Pommeret; Ian Ridley
  9. Promoting energy efficiency in government transportation systems: A transition roadmap and criteria for a readiness analysis By Flores Aguilar, Adrián; Hidalgo Arellano, Marcos; Peralta Quesada, Leda
  10. Electricity supply reliability and households decision to connect to the grid By Arnaud Millien
  11. Geopolitical Tensions, OPEC News, and Oil Price: A Granger Causality Analysis. By Carlos Medel
  12. Development of a Numerical Model of the Russian Oil and Oil Products Market By Gordeev, Dmitry; Kaukin, A.S.; Ponomarev, Yuriy
  13. Energy Consumption in South African Hotels: A Panel Data Analysis By Love O. Idahosa; Nyankomo Marwa; Joseph O. Akotey
  14. Pollution control under imperfect competition via taxes or permits: Cournot Duopoly By Requate, Till
  15. Measuring and explaining productivity growth of renewable energy producers: An empirical study of Austrian biogas plants. By Andreas, Eder; Bernhard, Mahlberg; Bernhard, Stürmer
  16. Scenario Analysis of the Impact of Reducing the Export Duty on Oil on the Russian Economy within the Framework of the General Equilibrium Model By Zubarev, Andrey; Polbin, Andrey
  17. Modeling and forecasting electricity price jumps in the Nord Pool power market By Oskar Knapik
  18. Curbing Congestion and Vehicular Emissions in China: A Call for Economic Measures By Xin Deng
  19. Working Paper 269 - Climate Change and Renewable Energy Generation in Africa By AfDB AfDB
  20. The effects of an increase of the energy price on macroeconomic activity: a comparative static approach By Chen, John-ren
  21. Trade Liberalization, Transboundary Pollution and Market Size By Forslid, Rikard; Okubo, Toshihiro; Sanctuary, Mark
  22. Endogenous changes of preferences in the energy market By Gottinger, Hans Werner; Yaari, M. E.
  23. Equivalence of effluent taxes and permits for environmental regulation of several local monopolies By Requate, Till
  24. The Development of the 'Green' Economy in Russia: Opportunities and Prospects By Lipina, Svetlana; Smirnova, Olga; Agapova, Elena; Lipina, A.V.
  25. The Risks of Nuclear Disaster and Its Impact on Housing Prices By Ando, Michihito; Dahlberg, Matz; Engström, Gustav
  26. A Dynamic Multiple Equation Approach for Forecasting PM2.5 Pollution in Santiago, Chile By Stella Moisan; Rodrigo Herrera; Adam Clements
  27. An empirical model of the decision to switch between electricity price contracts By Lanot, Gauthier; Vesterberg, Mattias
  28. Valoración económica de los cobeneficios del aprovechamiento energético de los residuos agrícolas en el Ecuador By Calderón Loor, Marco; Andrade, Fernando; Lizarzaburu, Lorena; Masache, Mauricio
  29. Generación de electricidad a través de fuentes renovables de energía en el Brasil By Nogueira, Luiz Horta; Haddad, Jamil
  30. Systemic risk for financial institutions of major petroleum-based economies: The role of oil By Khalifa, Ahmed; Caporin, Massimiliano; Costola, Michele; Hammoudeh, Shawkat
  31. Interjurisdictional competition in emission taxes under imperfect competition of local firms By Upmann, Thorsten

  1. By: Fei Teng (Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China); Frank Jotzo; Xin Wang
    Abstract: The electricity sector accounts for a large share of China’s carbon dioxide emissions and of the economy-wide abatement potential. China’s planned national emissions trading scheme would include electricity generation, as nearly all emissions trading schemes do. The critical difference is that in most existing carbon pricing systems the power sector operates with competitive markets and cost-based pricing, while the Chinese power industry still uses a highly regulated dispatch and pricing system. Together these limitations mean that the effect of a carbon price on China is limited in terms of the impact on operational decisions for existing power stations and in terms of the effects on investment decisions. We explore the channels of interaction between electricity market reform and carbon pricing in China, and provide quantitative estimates of the effects and interactions on electricity sector emissions. A probabilistic discrete choice model is used to simulate the behavior of investors in the power sector. The analysis indicates that market reform can help reduce emissions intensity, but to meet China’s 2030 targets for non-fossil fuel generation a low to moderate carbon price is also necessary; conversely, a carbon price will only be effective with market reform that provides flexibility in dispatch. Using our simplified quantitative analysis, the carbon price required for the same share of non-fossil fuel generation would be about twice as high without market reform. Combining market reform and a carbon price could achieve significant rates of decarbonization and is likely to be the most effective and most feasibly policy package to cut emissions from China’s power sector.
    Keywords: China, emissions trading, energy sector reform, policy interaction
    JEL: Q48 Q52
    Date: 2017–06
  2. By: Vu, Binh
    Abstract: This paper investigates whether population and international trade, along with energy consumption, are the main factors for environmental damage in China during the period 1971-2011. The stationary analysis is examined by the Zivot–Andrews unit root test and the ARDL bounds testing approach is used for a long run relationship between the series in the presence of structural breaks. The causality between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, economic growth, population and international trade is examined by the VECM Granger causality technique. Our results show that the selected variables are cointegrated; it means that the long run relationship exists in the presence of structural breaks. The empirical findings indicate that in long run, energy consumption and population increase CO2 emissions, while in short run, energy consumption and international trade decrease CO2 emissions. The VECM causality analysis shows that CO2 emissions Granger cause energy consumption, while energy consumption and population Granger cause trade. The VECM analysis also indicates the feedback hypothesis between trade and CO2 emissions. Policy recommendations are made following the obtained results.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions; population; international trade; energy consumption.
    JEL: C22 O44 Q43 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2017–02–17
  3. By: Roula Inglesi-Lotz (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, South Africa)
    Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis of the rebound effect for the South African case in the years between 1990 to 2014 by firstly, decomposing the driving forces of the changes in CO2 emissions of the country and secondly, comparing with the behaviors of other emerging economies such as BRICS. From a policy perspective, it is important not only to comprehend the factors that intensify the CO2 emissions of the country but since energy efficiency is globally promoted as a significant tool to control emissions from a demand-side, to examine whether energy efficiency improvements have indeed reduced CO2 emissions. The overall results of the decomposition exercise for the BRICS countries for the whole studies period suggest that the changes in CO2 intensity and energy intensity had a negative impact to the changes in CO2 emissions: in other words, as the energy intensity (energy consumption per unit of economic output) decreased for all the countries (possible technological developments), the emissions kept rising. For South Africa specifically, the energy intensity was a negative contributor to CO2 emissions only for the last period examined (2008-2014).
    Keywords: South Africa, BRICS, emissions, rebound effect
    Date: 2017–06
  4. By: Christoph Böhringer (University of Oldenburg); Thomas F. Rutherford (University of Wisconsin)
    Abstract: With his announcement to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement US President Donald Trump has snubbed the international climate policy community. Key remaining parties to the Agreement such as Europe and China might call for carbon tariffs on US imports as sanctioning instrument to coerce US compliance. Our analysis, however, reveals an inconvenient insight for advocates of carbon tariffs: Given the possibility of retaliatory tariffs across all imported goods, carbon tariffs do not constitute a credible threat for the US. A tariff war with its main trading partners China and Europe might make the US worse off than compliance to the Paris Agreement but China, in particular, should prefer US defection to a tariff war.
    Keywords: Paris Agreement, US withdrawal, carbon tariffs, optimal tariffs, tariff war, computable general equilibrium
    JEL: Q58 D58
    Date: 2017–06
  5. By: Olgun, Cenk
    Abstract: The European Union has been prizing itself for being the global leader in terms of climate change; its triptych approach and the 20-20-20 targets were certainly an enviable effort prior to the United Nations Convention. However, with the economic crisis having left its mark, there has been a decrease in ambitiousness and the paradigm is now dominated by competitiveness. The 2014 energy and climate package and its 2030 targets were therefore not only comparably unambitious but also nonbinding, with only GHG emission reduction being set. With the eastern countries traditionally being not very fond of climate policies, the thesis especially concentrates on where Poland and its coal-based energy system have stood as things developed and therefore assesses the role the country and the broader Visegrad Group had. Asking questions that get at the underlying reasons, the liberal intergovernmental framework is chosen to analyze how domestic preference building in Poland takes place, finding that the conventional energy sector has a tremendous impact on policy making. While Poland absorbed the directives to fit them into existing practices, without causing substantial structural changes, it applied a much more aggressive approach in the run up to the 2030 process, sending clear signals and thereby significantly contributing to the lowered ambitiousness of EU policies. Stemming not exclusively from a turn in the international environment, the learning process of the eastern Member States in the post-accession period played a decisive role in this development.
    Keywords: European Union,energy and climate policy,Poland
    JEL: Q28 Q48 Q54 Q58 K32
    Date: 2017
  6. By: Friederike Gesing (ZentraClim: Climate Change and Transnational Policy, University of Bremen, Sustainability Research Center (artec))
    Abstract: This paper provides a qualitative empirical analysis of the emergence of a new transnational municipal initiative, the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy, launched on January 1st 2017. This new initiative is the result of a merger of two previously existing networks, the Compact of Mayors founded in 2014 by a coalition of city networks under the leadership of UN Special Envoy for Cities and Climate Change Michael R. Bloomberg, and the Covenant of Mayors founded by the European Commission in 2008. While both these initiatives have been actively engaged in strengthening the role of cities and regions in the transnational climate policy arena, they have subscribed to different rhetoric and political strategies. The paper analyses the disparate logics of municipal climate action characteristic of the two initiatives, evident in the ongoing negotiations over the design of the common Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy. The paper draws on ethnographic evidence, interviews and documents to shed light on struggles over the politics of municipal climate data, focusing on disagreement about the role of common targets and tools, and the role of emission data for private investors
    Keywords: Transnational climate policy, municipal climate policy, transnational municipal networks (TMN), climate governance, climate data, data politics, data practices, comparability, city networks, public/private, GHG emissions reporting, Compact of Mayors, Covenant of Mayors, EU climate policy, multi-level governance, climate justice, climate finance, Science and Technology Studies (STS), qualitative environmental research
    Date: 2017–06
  7. By: Lugovoy, Olåg (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Potashnikîv, Vladimir (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The world energy system is going through serious changes under the influence of a number of factors. On the one hand, the economic growth of developing countries shifts energy demand to increasingly higher levels, raising prices, and stimulating investment in both geological exploration, development of mining technologies, and the development of renewable energy sources around the world. On the other hand, technological progress, the unrealized potential for energy efficiency of energy demand, the growing environmental burden from the use of fossil fuels, global climate change, lead to a reduction in final energy demand and a change in its structure in favor of more "clean" sources. For Russia, the largest producer and exporter of energy resources, understanding and forecasting these changes is an important and urgent task in the formation of a long-term growth strategy.
    Date: 2017–05
  8. By: Tunç Durmaz (Department of Economics, Yildiz Technical University); Aude Pommeret (School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong); Ian Ridley (School of Energy and Environment , City University of Hong Kong)
    Abstract: It is expected that the renewable share of energy generation will rise considerably in the near future. The intermittent and uncertain nature of renewable energy (RE) calls for storage and grid management technologies that can allow for increased power system flexibility. To assist policy makers in designing public policies that incentivize RE generation and a flexible power system based on energy storage and demandside management, better knowledge as to the willingness to pay for the corresponding devices is required. In this paper, we appraise the willingness of a household (HH) to pay for a 1.9 kW peak photovoltaic (PV) system and smart grid devices, namely, a smart meter and a home storage battery. Results indicate that having access to a storage device is key for the HH decision to install a smart meter. We also find that it is beneficial for the HH to install the PV system regardless of the pricing scheme and the ownership of the battery pack. It is, nevertheless, barely desirable to install the battery pack regardless of the presence of the PV system; an outcome pointing to the fact that the high cost of storage is a drawback for the wider use of these systems. When storage is constrained in such a way that only the generated power can be stored, the willingness to install the battery pack reduces even further. The investment decisions made when legislation prohibits net-metering are also analyzed.
    Keywords: Renewable Energy, Intermittency, Distributed Generation, Smart Solutions, Energy Storage, Demand Response, Willingness to Pay
    JEL: D12 D24 D61 Q41 Q42
    Date: 2017–06
  9. By: Flores Aguilar, Adrián; Hidalgo Arellano, Marcos; Peralta Quesada, Leda
    Abstract: The present study explores opportunities and challenges to increase energy efficiency in government vehicle fleets through electrification. It identifies international best practices in relation to fleet electrification, suggests the most suitable comprehensive approach for a fleet transition, and recommends the most immediate actions to deploy. Considering the leading role that the public sector plays in promoting the use of renewable energies and enhancing energy efficiency, the study presents a roadmap for government fleet transitions of vehicles that have equivalent alternatives in the market.
    Date: 2017–06
  10. By: Arnaud Millien (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne)
    Abstract: The 7th Sustainable Development Goal aims to "ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all". Because the cost to increase electrical capacity in Africa alone has been estimated at $800bn, this article investigates the extent to which electricity reliability could contribute to a reduction in the marginal cost of grid extension by attracting more customers. Using lightning as an instrument for outages severity, the article evaluates the assumption that less uncertainty about electricity availability would lead to a larger number of connected households. The article finds that a one percentage point increase in electricity reliability would yield a 0.67 percentage point increase in connections. Therefore, delivering fully reliable electrical power would allow an electricity company to achieve its targeted growth of customer base 15 months earlier than planned. The effect of reliability is highest for middle-rich households, which are the most reluctant to subscribe in the presence of total, severe or partial outages. A one-percentage-point upgrade in reliability increase the likelihood that these households will be connected by 1.28 percentage points. This article also finds that households are more sensitive to outages in areas where outages are less frequent. In addiction, the impact of reliability on households decision to connect could be at least 5% greater than the effect of poverty; if the frequency of outages is too high, the wealth or poverty effect might vanish and households would respond only to the excessively low reliability. These results confirm the uncertainty assumption, that is, regular and severe outages yield an uninsurable context that deters households from subscribing to the electric service
    Keywords: electrification; reliability; outages; Kenya; instrumental variable
    JEL: Q4 Q01 O18 O55 C26 C52
    Date: 2017–06
  11. By: Carlos Medel
    Abstract: To what extent geopolitical tensions in major oil-producer countries and unexpected news related to the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) affect oil price? What are the effects of non-market externalities in oil price? Are oil price forecasters aware or affected by such externalities when making their predictions? In this article, I analyse the influence of these events on oil price by means of Granger causality, using a unique measure of geopolitical tensions accounting for supply disruptions for the 2001-12 period. I found evidence favouring OPEC countries'-related news as an oil price driver jointly with supply disruptions as well as reducing the consensus when unanticipated news are available. When considering separately OPEC news, the evidence-- rather episodic--suggest some influence on the oil price expectations consensus plus a feedback dynamics between OPEC news and the level of oil price expectations.
    Date: 2017–06
  12. By: Gordeev, Dmitry (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kaukin, A.S. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Ponomarev, Yuriy (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The purpose of this work is to develop an oil market model of the Russian Federation that will yield qualitative and quantitative results, modeling various shocks arising in the oil market, and will allow a more balanced approach to the adoption of decisions aimed at further development of the oil and gas sector.
    Date: 2017–05
  13. By: Love O. Idahosa; Nyankomo Marwa; Joseph O. Akotey
    Abstract: Addressing the large energy consumption of hotels requires an understanding of the factors that drive this consumption. This enquiry is crucial for South Africa which has experienced significant strain in meeting its domestic energy demand. This has occurred alongside increases in international tourists, adding to the pressure on already strained resources. This paper tests hypotheses on drivers of energy consumption in hotels using a novel panel dataset which presents daily consumption data for 22 hotels across South Africa. Findings from various specifications of the Dynamic Random Effects Model suggest that the number of rooms in a hotel, the services and facilities offered, and climatic conditions are strong drivers of consumption. While the role of occupancy could not be robustly ascertained due to severe data limitations, findings indicate that price regulation plays a significant role in curtailing electricity consumption, even in high-end hotels. Results further suggest that in the design of guidelines for energy efficiency in South African hotels, the energy consumption of the facilities and services offered should be the first point of call, and the strenuous impact of extreme weather conditions on energy consumption needs to be factored in at the phase of building design and construction.
    Keywords: Energy consumption, Hotels, Panel data, Dynamic Random Effects, tourism
    JEL: Q01 Q41 Q56
    Date: 2017–06
  14. By: Requate, Till (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University)
    Date: 2017–04–04
  15. By: Andreas, Eder; Bernhard, Mahlberg; Bernhard, Stürmer
    Abstract: This study explores productivity growth for a group of 65 Austrian biogas plants from 2006 to 2014 using Data Envelopment Analysis. The sample covers about 25 % of the installed electric capacity of Austrian biogas plants. Productivity growth is measured by calculating the Malmquist productivity index, and the contributions of technical change, efficiency change and scale change to productivity growth are isolated. Average annual productivity growth between 2006 and 2014 is 1.1 %. The decomposition of the Malmquist index shows that the annual scale change, technical change, and efficiency change for the average plant is 0.6 %, 0.3 % and 0.3 %, respectively. Those results indicate that the exploitation of returns to scale is a major driver of productivity growth in the Austrian biogas sector. However, there is a large variation in productivity growth across biogas plants. A second-stage regression analysis identifies important determinants of productivity growth. The results show that i) the exploitation of returns to scale as well as changes in ii) output diversification iii) capital intensity, iv) capacity utilization and v) feedstock prices are positively associated with productivity growth.
    Keywords: Data Envelopment Analysis, Malmquist Productivity Index, Renewable Energy Sources, Biogas Energy, Cogeneration
    JEL: C61 D24 Q16 Q42
    Date: 2017–06
  16. By: Zubarev, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Polbin, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: The article studies macroeconomic effects of reducing oil export duty in the neoclassical general equilibrium model for the Russian economy. It is shown that in the current economic environment with low oil prices, this tax reform can be virtually painless for the economy. At the same time, if considered economic policy measure will force the oil refining industry to modernise its production facilities, there will be a positive effect on output in the economy and the welfare of domestic economic agents in the long run.
    Keywords: ýêñïîðòíàÿ ïîøëèíà íà íåôòü, íàëîãîâûé ìàíåâð, äèíàìè÷åñêèå ìîäåëè îáùåãî ðàâíîâåñèÿ, ðîññèéñêàÿ ýêîíîìèêà, oil export duty, tax reform, DSGE model for the Russian economy
    Date: 2017–05
  17. By: Oskar Knapik (Aarhus University and CREATES)
    Abstract: For risk management traders in the electricity market are mainly interested in the risk of negative (drops) or of positive (spikes) price jumps, i.e. the sellers face the risk of negative price jumps while the buyers face the risk of positive price jumps. Understanding the mechanism that drive extreme prices and forecasting of the price jumps is crucial for risk management and market design. In this paper, we consider the problem of the impact of fundamental price drivers on forecasting of price jumps in NordPool intraday market. We develop categorical time series models which take into account i) price drivers, ii) persistence, iii) seasonality of electricity prices. The models are shown to outperform commonly-used benchmark. The paper shows how crucial for price jumps forecasting is to incorporate additional knowledge on price drivers like loads, temperature and water reservoir level as well as take into account the persistence in the jumps occurrence process.
    Keywords: autoregressive order probit model, categorical time series, seasonality, electricity prices, Nord Pool power market, forecasting, autoregressive multinomial model, fundamental price drivers
    JEL: C1 C5 C53 Q4
    Date: 2017–02–01
  18. By: Xin Deng
    Abstract: With the exponential growth of the national vehicle fleet in the last three decades, most cities in China are facing mounting pressure to tackle congestion and air pollution problems caused by motor vehicles. Beijing, the capital city, is a good case to study how municipal governments address those issues. To alleviate road congestion and pollution, the government has invested heavily in road infrastructure, advanced traffic management technology and also introduced stringent standards on vehicular emissions. However, city planners have been over-relying on command and control measures including travel demand management, which have proven to be costly and inefficient in controlling motor vehicle ownership and usage—the fundamental causes of congestion and emissions. Economic measures including road pricing and vehicle registration auction schemes are superior and should be adopted in travel demand management in the future.
    Keywords: congestion, air pollution, motor vehicles, China, travel demand management
    Date: 2017–02–24
  19. By: AfDB AfDB
    Date: 2017–06–19
  20. By: Chen, John-ren (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University)
    Date: 2017–04–04
  21. By: Forslid, Rikard (Dept. of Economics, Stockholm University); Okubo, Toshihiro (Keio University); Sanctuary, Mark (Stockholm School of Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences)
    Abstract: This paper uses a monopolistic competitive framework to study the impact of trade liberalization on local and global emissions. We focus on the interplay of asymmetric emission taxes and the home market effect and show how a large-market advantage can counterbalance a high emission tax, so that trade liberalization leads firms to move to the large high-tax economy. Global emissions decrease when trade is liberalized in this case. We then simulate the model with endogenous taxes. The larger country, which has the advantage of the home market effect, will be able to set a higher Nash emission tax than its smaller trade partner, yet still maintain its manufacturing base. As a result, a pollution haven will typically not arise in this case as trade is liberalized. However, global emission increases as a result of international tax competition, which underscores that the importance of international cooperation increases as trade becomes freer.
    Keywords: Market size; emission tax; trade liberalisation; pollution haven effect
    JEL: D21 F12 F15
    Date: 2017–06–26
  22. By: Gottinger, Hans Werner (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University); Yaari, M. E. (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University)
    Date: 2017–04–04
  23. By: Requate, Till (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University)
    Date: 2017–04–04
  24. By: Lipina, Svetlana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Smirnova, Olga (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Agapova, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lipina, A.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))
    Abstract: In the world community, some experience of the development of the "green economy" has already been gained. However, in conditions when Russia faces new problems and challenges, serious analysis and search for rational forms of combining objective indicators and criteria for their application in the projects for the development of a "green" economy, taking into account the specifics of the economy and the availability of a resource-resource potential of Russia, are required.
    Date: 2017–05
  25. By: Ando, Michihito (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research); Dahlberg, Matz (Department of Economics); Engström, Gustav (The Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics)
    Abstract: Using a data set on housing sales transactions we explore the potential effect of the Fukushima disaster on housing prices in Sweden. In contrast to most earlier findings in other countries we do not find any disproportionate effect from the Fukushima disaster on housing prices in vicinity of nuclear power plants in Sweden.
    Keywords: Fukushima; Nuclear accident; housing price; difference-indifferences
    JEL: Q51 Q53 R21
    Date: 2017–02–10
  26. By: Stella Moisan (Universidad de Talca, Chile); Rodrigo Herrera (Universidad de Talca, Chile); Adam Clements (QUT)
    Abstract: A methodology based on a system of dynamic multiple linear equations is proposed that incorporates hourly, daily and annual seasonal characteristics to predict hourly pm2.5 pollution concentrations for 11 meteorological stations in Santiago, Chile. It is demonstrated that the proposed model has the potential to match or even surpass the accuracy of other linear and nonlinear forecasting models in terms of fit and predictive ability. In addition, the model is successful in predicting various categories of high concentration events, up to 76% of mid-range and 100% of extreme-range events as an average across all stations. This forecasting model is considered a useful tool for government authorities to anticipate critical episodes of air quality so as to avoid the detrimental impacts economic and health impacts of extreme pollution levels.
    Keywords: Air quality, Particulate matter, Dynamic multiple equations
    Date: 2017–04–11
  27. By: Lanot, Gauthier (Department of Economics, Umeå University); Vesterberg, Mattias (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
    Abstract: We present a novel model for a time series of individual binary decisions which depends on the history of prices. The model is based on the Bayesian learning procedure which is at the core of sequential decision making. We show that the model capture dependence on past events and past priors in a straightforward fashion, the model capture some dependence on initial condition, here in the form of the prior at the start of the decision period, and that estimation through maximum likelihood is straightforward. We estimate the parameters of the model on a sample of Swedish households who have to decide over time between competing electricity contracts. The estimated parameters suggest that households respond to prices by switching between contracts, and that the response can be rather substantial for alternative price processes
    Keywords: Price; Contract Choice; Bayesian Learning; Time Series; Binary Decision; Survival analysis
    JEL: C11 C41 D12 Q41
    Date: 2017–06–21
  28. By: Calderón Loor, Marco; Andrade, Fernando; Lizarzaburu, Lorena; Masache, Mauricio
    Abstract: Las actividades agrícolas son particularmente vulnerables a los efectos del cambio climático pero a su vez, son responsables de aproximadamente el 11% de las emisiones totales de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) de origen antropogénico a nivel global. Una de las fuentes más importantes es la descomposición de los residuos orgánicos de los cultivos. Aunque, pueden ser aprovechados para lageneración de energía eléctrica a través del uso de diferentes tecnologías. Aunque existen diversas experiencias de aprovechamiento de residuos en Ecuador, no se han realizado estudios de valoración económica de sus beneficios y cobeneficios. El presente estudio muestra por primera vez un estudio de valoración económica de cobeneficios para el aprovechamiento energético de los residuos de cuatro cultivos agrícolas para tres grandes escenarios de tenencia de tierra (pequeños, medianos y grandes productores).
    Date: 2017–06
  29. By: Nogueira, Luiz Horta; Haddad, Jamil
    Date: 2017
  30. By: Khalifa, Ahmed; Caporin, Massimiliano; Costola, Michele; Hammoudeh, Shawkat
    Abstract: This paper examines the relationship between systemic risk measures across 546 financial institutions in major petroleum-based economies and oil movements. In this paper, we follow two steps. In the first step, we estimate the delta conditional VaR (CoVaR) for the financial institutions and verify the interdependence between the systemic risk and oil, both on a graphical basis and by means of statistical tests. Further, we analyse the financial companies' connectedness through Granger causality-based networks, augmented with oil exposures. We observe the presence of elevated increases in the CoVaR levels, corresponding to the subprime and global crises, which are exogenous shocks to the financial institutions located in the GCC countries. In the second step, we consider the CoVaR by introducing oil returns as a state variable to detect if there is an improvement in the systemic risk measurement. The results provide evidence in favour of risk measurement improvements by accounting for oil returns in the risk functions, as monitored by coverage tests.
    Keywords: systemic risk,risk measurement,VaR,CoVaR,Oil,financial institutions,petroleum-based economies
    JEL: C22 C58 G01 G17 G20 G21 G32
    Date: 2017
  31. By: Upmann, Thorsten (Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University)
    Date: 2017–04–04

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