nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2017‒04‒30
34 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Do The Effects of Social Nudges Persist? Theory and Evidence from 38 Natural Field Experiments By Alec Brandon; Paul J. Ferraro; John A. List; Robert D. Metcalfe; Michael K. Price; Florian Rundhammer
  2. The Rent Impact of Disclosing Energy Performance Certificates: Energy Efficiency and Information Effects By Luisa Dressler; Elisabetta Cornago
  3. A diverse and resilient financial system for investments in the energy transition By F.H.J. Polzin; M.W.J.L. Sanders; Florian Täube
  4. Wind Providing Balancing Reserves: An Application to the German Electricity System of 2025 By Casimir Lorenz; Clemens Gerbaulet
  5. Evaluation of the Kigoma Solar Activity in Tanzania: Final Report By Divya Vohra; Edith Felix; Duncan Chaplin; Arif Mamun
  6. Is the Answer Blowing in the Wind (Auctions)? An Assessment of Italian Auction Procedures to Promote On-Shore Wind Energy By Cassetta, Ernesto; Meleo, Linda; Monarca, Umberto; Nava, Consuelo R.
  7. Fünf Jahre nach Fukushima: Eine Zwischenbilanz der Energiewende By Chrischilles, Esther; Bardt, Hubertus
  8. Where Do Green Technologies Come From? Inventor Teams’ Recombinant Capabilities and the Creation of New Knowledge. By Orsatti, Gianluca; Pezzoni, Michele; Quatraro, Francesco
  9. Modeling individual preferences for energy sources: the case of IV generation nuclear energy in Italy By Davide Contu; Elisabetta Strazzera; Susana Mourato
  10. Public acceptance of environmentally friendly electric heating in rural Beijing By Zhang Jingchao; Koji Kotani; Tatsuyoshi Saijo
  11. An estimate of the possible impact of lower electricity and water tariffs on the Maltese economy By Aaron G. Grech
  12. Full cost analysis of accessibility By Mengying Cui; David Levinson
  13. A Spatial Electricity Market Model for the Power System of Kazakhstan By Makpal Assembayeva; Jonas Egerer; Roman Mendelevitch; Nurkhat Zhakiyev
  14. Structural price model for electricity coupled markets By Clemence Alasseur; Olivier Feron
  15. Surge Capacity: Selling City-owned Electricity Distributors to Meet Broader Municipal Infrastructure Needs By Steven Robins
  16. Stochastic equilibrium modeling: The Impact of Uncertainty on the European Energy Market By Rolf Golombek; Kjell Arne Brekke; Michal Kaut; Sverre A.C. Kittelsen; Stein W. Wallace
  17. How Accurate are Energy Intensity Projections? By David I. Stern
  18. Les prix de l’énergie au plus haut depuis 18 mois By Aurélien Saussay
  19. Securing Property Rights By Glaeser, Edward L.; Ponzetto, Giacomo A. M.; Shleifer, Andrei
  20. Computing Coal Dependent Employment Estimates By Randall W. Jackson
  21. Hazard risks and their impact on critical infrastructures (Case analysis – natural gas networks of Italy and Romania) By Ionut Purica
  22. Putting a value on injuries to natural assets: The BP Oil Spill By Richard Bishop; Kevin Boyle; Richard Carson; David Chapman; Matthew DeBell; Colleen Donovan; W. Michael Hanemann; Barbara Kanninen; Matthew Konopka; Raymond Kopp; Jon Krosnick; John List; Norman Meade; Robert Paterson; Stanley Presser; Nora Scherer; V. Kerry Smith; Roger Tourangeau; Michael Welsh; Jeffrey Wooldridge
  23. How firms (partially) organize their environment : Meta-organizations in the oil and gas industry By Héloïse Berkowitz; Hervé Dumez
  24. Nigeria; 2017 Article IV Consultation- Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nigeria By International Monetary Fund.
  25. Doubling down: National oil companies as instruments of risk and reward By Patrick R.P. Heller
  26. Biofuels technology: A look forward By William Stafford; Adrian Lotter; Alan Brent; Graham von Maltitz
  27. Woody Biomass Processing: Potential Economic Impacts on Rural Regions By Randall Jackson; Péter Járosi; Amir B. Ferreira Neto; Elham Erfanian
  28. Driving factors of GHG emissions in EU transport activity By Lidia Andrés Delgado; Emilio Padilla Rosa
  29. The Greenest Path: Comparing the Effects of Internal and External Costs of Motor Vehicle Pollution on Route Choice and Accessibility By Mengying Cui; David Levinson
  30. The Incidence of Carbon Taxes in U.S. Manufacturing: Lessons from Energy Cost Pass-through By Sharat Ganapati; Joseph S. Shapiro; Reed Walker
  31. Designing and Updating a US Carbon Tax in an Uncertain World By Aldy, Joseph
  32. Allocation rules of free allowances in the EU ETS system. A CGE analysis By Michal Antoszewski; Krzysztof Wójtowicz
  33. FDI and Economic Growth: A Changing Relationship Across Country and Overtime By Hayat*+, Arshad; Cahlik*✝, Tomas
  34. Evolution of Assessments of the Economics of Global Warming: Changes in the DICE model, 1992 – 2017 By William D. Nordhaus

  1. By: Alec Brandon; Paul J. Ferraro; John A. List; Robert D. Metcalfe; Michael K. Price; Florian Rundhammer
    Abstract: This study examines the mechanisms underlying long-run reductions in energy consumption caused by a widely studied social nudge. Our investigation considers two channels: physical capital in the home and habit formation in the household. Using data from 38 natural field experiments, we isolate the role of physical capital by comparing treatment and control homes after the original household moves, which ends treatment. We find 35 to 55 percent of the reductions persist once treatment ends and show this is consonant with the physical capital channel. Methodologically, our findings have important implications for the design and assessment of behavioral interventions.
    JEL: C93 D01 D03 Q4
    Date: 2017–03
  2. By: Luisa Dressler; Elisabetta Cornago
    Abstract: Energy performance certificates (EPC) can help solve information asymmetries between landlords and tenants about dwellings’ energy performance. EPCs may enable rent premiums for energy efficient dwellings, incentivizing energy efficiency investment in rental property. However, low EPC disclosure rates may undermine their potential to promote investment. Using a cross-sectional dataset of residential rental advertisements from Brussels, we estimate rent premiums from EPCs under de facto voluntary EPC disclosure. We use the Heckman correction and an instrumental variable approach to tackle potential selection bias and endogeneity. First, we find that highly energy-efficient compared to inefficient dwellings earn a rent premium, provided that EPCs are disclosed (energy efficiency effect). This premium may incentivize investment in energy efficiency of rental property. Second, dwellings with average energy performance are penalized from disclosing an EPC (information effect). This may provide a strategic motivation to hide EPCs that indicate mediocre energy performance.
    Keywords: asymmetric information; voluntary information disclosure; energy performance certificates; energy efficiency
    JEL: C21 D82 Q48 R31
    Date: 2017–04
  3. By: F.H.J. Polzin; M.W.J.L. Sanders; Florian Täube
    Abstract: Diversity makes the financial system more resilient. In addition, there is a diverse investment demand to make the transition to a more sustainable energy system. We need, among others, investment in energy transition, circular resource use, better water management and reducing air pollution. The two are linked. Making the financial system more diverse implies more equity, less debt, more non-bank intermediation and more specialized niche banks giving more relation based credit. This will arguably also increase the flow of funds and resources to innovative, small scale, experimental firms that will drive the sustainability transition. Higher diversity and resilience in financial markets is thus complementary and perhaps even instrumental to engineer the transition to clean energy in the real economy.
    Keywords: Financial markets, clean energy investments, diversity, public policy
    Date: 2017–02
  4. By: Casimir Lorenz; Clemens Gerbaulet
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the influence of wind turbines as new participants on prices and allocation within balancing markets. We introduce the cost-minimizing electricity sector model ELMOD-MIP, that includes detailed unit-commitment constraints, complex combined heat and power constraints, and minimum bid sizes for balancing capacity reservation. The model also features a novel approach of modeling balancing reservation by considering possible activation costs already during the reservation phase, mimicking the activation anticipation of market participants. The model includes the spot and balancing market of Germany and is applied to scenarios for 2013 and 2025. The results for 2025 show, in comparison to 2013, a price increase for positive and negative reserves, in case no new participants enter the market. With the participation of wind turbines the cost for balancing provision is reduced by 40%, but above 2013 values. The relative cost savings from wind participation are higher for negative reserve provision than positive reserve provision, as wind turbines can use their full capacity if not activated and do not have to be curtailed ex ante. The participation of wind turbines especially reduces the occurrence of peak prices for positive and negative reserves in 2025. This reduction effect occurs even with a relatively low share where wind turbines participate with only five percent of their capacity. Therefore, further fostering the process of allowing wind turbines to participate in the German reserve market seems favorable.
    Keywords: balancing reserves, electricity sector modeling, power plant dispatch, wind participation
    JEL: Q42 Q47 Q48 C61 L94
    Date: 2017
  5. By: Divya Vohra; Edith Felix; Duncan Chaplin; Arif Mamun
    Abstract: The Kigoma solar activity, funded by the Millennium Challenge Corporation, was designed to promote solar power systems in the Kigoma region of western Tanzania. This report covers results from a recently completed performance evaluation of the Kigoma solar activity.
    Keywords: Solar Power, Electricity, Millennium Challenge Corporation, Tanzania, Developing Countries
    JEL: F Z
  6. By: Cassetta, Ernesto; Meleo, Linda; Monarca, Umberto; Nava, Consuelo R. (University of Turin)
    Abstract: The present article provides a quantitative data-based assessment of on-shore wind auctions implemented in Italy from 2012 to 2016. More specifically, this paper investigates policy effectiveness and cost effciency of on-shore wind auction scheme and explores the determinants of the likelihood of being awarded an incentive according to current auction design. Our objective is to provide new insights for better understanding of auction potential outcomes in RES context as well on the different design elements which are more appropriate for specific policy goals. The extreme simplicity of the auction design undoubtedly has promoted competition, encouraging many on-shore wind project developers to bid. Our results show that localisation factors have not constitute a competitive constraint for project developers. When many sites are available and auctioned capacity is not sufficiently high, the administratively setting of ceiling prices becomes a central issue. Doubts also exist on policy effectiveness of the current support scheme which makes difficult to control the totalamount of support provided justifying stop-and-go cycles of nancing thus favouring distorted bidding behaviour by project developers.
    Date: 2017–03
  7. By: Chrischilles, Esther; Bardt, Hubertus
    Abstract: Die Bundesregierung hat in Verbindung mit dem Erdbeben in Fukushima und dem damit zusammenhängenden Reaktorunglück den endgültigen Ausstieg aus der Kernenergie beschlossen. Zusammen mit dem bis vor das Jahr 2000 zurückreichenden Beschluss, die Stromversorgung auf erneuerbare Energien umzustellen, bilden diese Entscheidungen die maßgeblichen Weichen für die sogenannte Energiewende. Daran schließen sich eine Reihe von Herausforderungen an, die in der einen oder anderen Weise von der Bundesregierung in ergänzende Ziele übersetzt worden sind. Fünf Jahre liegen die Ereignisse um Fukushima, denen der Kernenergieausstieg folgte, nun zurück. Die verbleibenden acht Kernkraftwerke, die zuletzt rund 14 Prozent des hiesigen Stroms erzeugten, werden in den nächsten Jahren vom Netz gehen. Die größten Herausforderungen stehen uns damit noch bevor: Mit Auslaufen der Jahre 2021 und 2022 werden nochmals Kapazitäten in der Größenordnung der Sofortstillegungen 2011 vom Netz gehen. Die vorliegende Kurzexpertise hat aus diesem Anlass wesentliche Ziele, die teilweise notwendige Rahmenbedingungen zum Gelingen der Energiewende beschreiben, untersucht. Sie bedient sich dafür einer Indikatorik, die soweit möglich den Zielpfad der Energiewende seit dem Jahr 2000 und den ersten Zwischenzielen 2020 definiert und auf den aktuellen Stand bezieht. Vergleichend wird hier auch 2011, das Jahr des Kernenergieausstiegs, mitbetrachtet. Dabei wird deutlich, dass vor allem der Ausbau erneuerbarer Energien gelingt und sogar über das Ziel hinaus schießt. Damit verbunden sind jedoch Einbußen in Fragen der Wirtschaftlichkeit der Förderung erneuerbarer Energien, der industriellen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit und tendenziell auch der netzseitigen Versorgungssicherheit. Auch hinsichtlich der langfristigen Verfügbarkeit konventioneller Kraftwerkskapazitäten lassen die derzeitigen Rahmenbedingungen Fragen offen, denn die Förderung von erneuerbaren Energien hat deutliche Auswirkungen auf die Erlösmöglichkeiten auf dem Strommarkt.
    Date: 2016
  8. By: Orsatti, Gianluca; Pezzoni, Michele; Quatraro, Francesco (University of Turin)
    Abstract: By exploiting the EPO universe of patent data, we investigate how inventors’ teams recombinant capabilities drive the creation of Green Technologies (GTs).Results suggest the importance of recombinant creation patterns in fostering the generation of GTs. We also find diverse moderating effects of technological green experience and environmental regulation stringency on exploration behaviors. Precisely, the positive effect of team’s explorative behaviors is magnified for teams lacking technological green experience, even more in regimes of weak environmental regulation. Conversely, the effect of explorative behaviors is reduced for green experienced teams, especially in regimes of weak environmental regulation. Finally, we find positive effects of both team’s previous technological green experience and environmental regulation stringency.
    Date: 2017–03
  9. By: Davide Contu; Elisabetta Strazzera; Susana Mourato
    Abstract: The planned re-introduction of nuclear energy in Italy was abandoned in the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear accident. Twenty years earlier, soon after the Chernobyl accident, Italians had also voted against nuclear energy. However, a new nuclear energy technology, i.e. fourth generation, is under research and development. This paper investigates its social acceptance by means of a robust methodology, employing 1) choice experiments, 2) structural equation modeling and 3) information treatments within an online nation-wide survey. Results show a great deal of preference heterogeneity: the majority of the sampled respondents oppose new nuclear plants in Italy, with some not willing to accept any monetary compensation at all. However, another segment of respondents, more confident that fourth generation nuclear energy goals will be achieved, show a modest support towards the implementation of new nuclear projects. Additional variables were found to affect opposition.
    Keywords: Fourth generation nuclear energy; Choice experiments; Fukushima; Italy
    JEL: R14 J01
    Date: 2016–04–19
  10. By: Zhang Jingchao (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology); Koji Kotani (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology); Tatsuyoshi Saijo (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology)
    Abstract: China has long suffered from severe haze pollution due to coal consumption in rural areas. One possible solution is promotion of a new electric heating system called a “low temperature air source heat pump (LTHP) technology.†This paper explores the possibility of public acceptance for the LTHP technology of electric heating. To this end, we elicit people’s willingness to adopt (WTA), willingness to pay (WTP) for the LTHP technology, socio-demographic and perception information by conducting field surveys of 579 households and empirically characterize the determinants of the public acceptance. The analysis reveals that income, science literacy and local environmental concern positively affect WTA and WTP, while global environmental concern does not show any significance. Contrary to our initial expectation, people in mountainous areas express the highest WTA and WTP followed by those in hilly and plain areas. Overall, these findings suggest that the promotion could start from mountainous to hilly and from hilly to plain areas, advancing public education on local environmental concerns and science literacy. With such a plan, the electric heating system shall be successfully promoted in the least-cost manner, and energy switch from coal to electricity in rural Beijing will be facilitated for cleaner environment.
    Keywords: public acceptance, air pollution, LTHP, rural Beijing
  11. By: Aaron G. Grech (Central Bank of Malta)
    Abstract: This paper presents estimates of the possible impact on the Maltese economy of the reduction in electricity and water tariffs to residential customers that took place on 31 March 2014 and the subsequent lowering of tariffs to commercial customers, which is expected to take place in March 2015. These estimates are calculated using the structural macro-econometric model described in Grech et al (2013).
    JEL: C3 C5 E1 E2
  12. By: Mengying Cui; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: Traditional accessibility evaluation fails to fully capture the travel costs, especially the external costs of travel. This study develops a framework of extending accessibility analysis combining the alternate (internal and external) cost components of travel, time, safety, emission and money, with accessibility analysis, which makes it an efficient evaluation tool for the potential needs of transport planning projects. An illustration of this framework based on a toy network was also built in this paper, which proves the potential of applying the extending accessibility analysis into the network of metropolitan areas.
    Keywords: accessibility, full cost analysis
    JEL: R40 D62 H23 R20 Q50
    Date: 2016
  13. By: Makpal Assembayeva; Jonas Egerer; Roman Mendelevitch; Nurkhat Zhakiyev
    Abstract: Kazakhstan envisions a transition towards a green economy in the next decades which poses an immense challenge as the country heavily depends on (hydro-)carbon resources, for both its economy and its energy system. In this context, there is a lack of comprehensive and transparent planning tools to assess possible sustainable development pathways in regard to their technical, economic, and environmental implications. We present such a tool with a comprehensive techno-economic model of the Kazakh electricity system which determines the hourly least-cost generation dispatch based on publicly available data on the technical and economic characteristics of power plants and the transmission infrastructure. This modeling framework accounts for the particularities of the Kazakh electricity system: i) it has a detailed representation of combined heat and power, and ii) line losses are endogenously determined using a linear approximation. Model results are examined for a typical winter week (with annual peak load) and a typical summer week (with the hour of lowest annual load) presenting regionally and temporally disaggregated results for power generation, line utilization, and nodal prices. In an application to market design, the paper compares nodal and zonal pricing as two possible pricing schemes in Kazakhstan for the envisioned strengthening of the day-ahead market. In general, the model can be readily used to analyze the least-cost dispatch of the current Kazakh electricity system and can be easily expanded to assess the sector's development. Among others, possible applications include investment in transmission lines and in the aging power plant fleet, scenarios and policy assessment for emission reduction, and questions of market liberalization and market design.
    Keywords: Kazakhstan; Central Asia, Electricity sector, Techno-economic modeling, Transmission net- work, ELMOD
    JEL: C61 D47 Q41
    Date: 2017
  14. By: Clemence Alasseur; Olivier Feron
    Abstract: We propose a new structural model that can compute the electricity spot and forward prices in two coupled markets with limited interconnection and multiple fuels. We choose a structural approach in order to represent some key characteristics of electricity spot prices such as their link to fuel prices, consumption level and production fleet. With this model, explicit formulas are also available for forward prices and other derivatives. We give some illustrative results of the behaviour of spot and forward prices, and of the values of transmission rights.
    Date: 2017–04
  15. By: Steven Robins
    Keywords: Public Investments and Infrastructure
    JEL: E6 L3 R4
  16. By: Rolf Golombek; Kjell Arne Brekke; Michal Kaut; Sverre A.C. Kittelsen; Stein W. Wallace
    Abstract: We present a simple approach to transform a deterministic numerical equilibrium model - where several agents simultaneously make decisions - into a stochastic equilibrium model. Our approach is used to build a large stochastic numerical equilibrium model of the Western European energy markets. We use the stochastic model to analyze the impact of economic uncertainty on the Western European energy markets; it is demonstrated that the equilibrium under uncertainty differs significantly from the deterministic outcome.
    Keywords: EU, Impact and scenario analysis, Agent-based modeling
    Date: 2016–07–04
  17. By: David I. Stern (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)
    Abstract: Recent projections of energy intensity predict a more rapid decline in intensity than has occurred in the recent past. To assess how well such projections have performed in the past, I assess the accuracy of the business as usual energy intensity projections embedded in the annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) produced by the International Energy Agency since 1994. Changes in energy intensity depend on economic growth and historical errors in projecting energy intensity can partly be explained by errors in projecting the rate of economic growth. However, recent projections of the elasticity of energy intensity with respect to economic growth probably overstate the likely future reduction in energy intensity even if economic growth is projected accurately. This could be because energy efficiency policies are not implemented as effectively as expected or because the economy-wide rebound effect is larger than modeling assumes.
    Keywords: Integrated Assessment Models, Business as Usual, Projections
    JEL: Q43 Q54
    Date: 2017–04
  18. By: Aurélien Saussay (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)
    Abstract: Les prix de l’énergie au plus haut depuis 18 mois : - La hausse du cours des énergies fossiles continue à tirer vers le haut les prix de l’énergie - Le prix du gaz en hausse de plus de 2%, le prix du fioul en hausse de près de 3%. [Premières lignes]
    Keywords: Prix de l’énergie; Energie fossile; Consommation
    Date: 2016–12
  19. By: Glaeser, Edward L. (Harvard University); Ponzetto, Giacomo A. M. (University of Pompeu Fabra); Shleifer, Andrei (Harvard University)
    Abstract: A central challenge in securing property rights is the subversion of justice through legal skill, bribery, or physical force by the strong--the state or its powerful citizens--against the weak. We present evidence that the less educated and poorer citizens in many countries feel their property rights are least secure. We then present a model of a farmer and a mine which can pollute his farm in a jurisdiction where the mine can subvert law enforcement. We show that, in this model, injunctions or other forms of property rules work better than compensation for damage or liability rules. The equivalences of the Coase Theorem break down in realistic ways. The case for injunctions is even stronger when parties can invest in power. Our approach sheds light on several controversies in law and economics, but also applies to practical problems in developing countries, such as low demand for formality, law enforcement under uncertain property rights, and unresolved conflicts between environmental damage and development.
    Date: 2016–09
  20. By: Randall W. Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University)
    Abstract: This document presents the basis for estimating coal-dependent employment in a reference region, then establishing a weighting factor for each industry that can be used to provide a quantitative estimate of the existing employment or employment change in a county that can be attributed to existing or change in coal employment. The Matlab function is provided. Although coal is the industry of interest in this document, any other industry could be targeted for similar study.
    Keywords: input-output, employment proportions, coal dependence
    JEL: C67 C53 Q47 Q41
    Date: 2017–02
  21. By: Ionut Purica
    Abstract: Hazard risks have important impact on critical infrastructures such as gas network based on large climate and seismic data the risk distribution is determined and the risk maps for the Italian and Romanian gas networks are calculated Mitigation and adaptation measures and insurance policy for critical infrastructures
    Keywords: italy and Romania, Energy and environmental policy, Modeling: new developments
    Date: 2016–07–04
  22. By: Richard Bishop; Kevin Boyle; Richard Carson; David Chapman; Matthew DeBell; Colleen Donovan; W. Michael Hanemann; Barbara Kanninen; Matthew Konopka; Raymond Kopp; Jon Krosnick; John List; Norman Meade; Robert Paterson; Stanley Presser; Nora Scherer; V. Kerry Smith; Roger Tourangeau; Michael Welsh; Jeffrey Wooldridge
    Date: 2017
  23. By: Héloïse Berkowitz (i3-CRG - Centre de recherche en gestion i3 - Polytechnique - X - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Hervé Dumez (i3-CRG - Centre de recherche en gestion i3 - Polytechnique - X - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate how firms collectively organize their environment. Past literature mostly focused on networks and institutions and has overlooked the role of meta-organizations in this process. Based on the case study of the oil and gas industry, we develop an abductive grounded theory model of meta-organizations as collective partial organizations. Our study shows that firms – complete organizations – organize their environment through the setting up of many meta-organizations – partial and thin organizations, which leads to a growing organizational complexity. This complexity results from the organizational creativity of firms when they are confronted to three decision situations. Finally, we highlight the importance of membership in MOs, analyze the various implications of its completeness or incompleteness for legitimacy, and discuss the emergent concept of outreach strategies which we argue to be central for thin organizations.
    Abstract: Cet article étudie la façon dont les firmes organisent collectivement leur environnement. La littérature a tendance à étudier cette question sous l’angle des réseaux et des institutions et s’est relativement peu intéressée au rôle des méta-organisations dans ce processus. A partir d’une étude de cas du secteur pétrolier et gazier, nous développement un modèle de méta-organisations comme organisations partielles support de l’action collective entre organisations. Notre article montre que les firmes—des organisations complètes—organisent collectivement leur environnement en mettant en place de nombreuses méta-organisations—des organisations partielles et légères—ce qui produit de la complexité organisationnelle. Cette complexité résulte de la créativité organisationnelle dont les firmes font preuve en étant confrontées à trois situations de décision. Enfin, nous éclairons l’importance des stratégies d’appartenance dans les méta-organisations, leurs implications en terme de légitimité, et l’émergence du concept de stratégie de sensibilisation.
    Keywords: Partial organization,meta-organization,collective strategy,oil and gas,abductive,outreach,Organisation partielle, méta-organisation, stratégie collective, industrie pétrolière
    Date: 2015–10
  24. By: International Monetary Fund.
    Abstract: The slump in oil prices and production and an inadequate policy response are increasing unemployment and undermining efforts to reduce poverty. The authorities took some steps in 2016 to reduce vulnerabilities, mainly by deregulating fuel prices, increasing the monetary policy rate, and allowing currency depreciation to reduce the exchange rate misalignment. However, further actions are urgently needed to tackle the low revenue effort, large infrastructure deficit, rising debt service, double-digit inflation, and a foreign exchange market marred by restrictions. These actions need to be supported by continued efforts to counter militant activity in the Niger Delta and an insurgency-related humanitarian crisis in the North East.
  25. By: Patrick R.P. Heller
    Abstract: National oil companies tend to elicit unequivocal views. To political leaders within petroleum-producing countries, they often represent a sine qua non of a strategy capable of delivering long-term benefits to citizens. To many international analysts and donors, they represent vestiges of an outmoded statist perspective that discourages investment, encourages corruption, and delivers fewer benefits to the country than a purely private-sector approach. The reality lies somewhere in between these poles. Many national oil companies have enabled their governments, over the long term, to exert stronger control over their oil sectors and capture a larger share of rewards from the industry. But relying heavily on a national oil company carries certain fundamental risks—both the standard business risks of a volatile sector and particular governance risks inherent to the space they occupy at the intersection of commercial interests and the state’s allocation power. This paper argues that decisions about how large a role to give a national oil company in the execution of an oil-sector strategy and the management of public financial resources should be based on a careful assessment of the size of the potential rewards and the state’s tolerance for these fundamental risks. It then examines the most important risk mitigation techniques that governments have used to increase the likelihood that their national oil companies will deliver strong economic returns and remain accountable to citizens.
    Date: 2017
  26. By: William Stafford; Adrian Lotter; Alan Brent; Graham von Maltitz
    Abstract: This paper assesses biofuels technology readiness and provides foresight to biofuels development in Southern Africa. Efficient conversion pathways, coupled with biomass from waste or high-yielding energy crops, reduces both the costs of biofuels production and the environmental impacts. Currently, most biofuels are more expensive than petroleum fuels and market uptake will be influenced by mandates and subsidies. Advanced biofuels promise greater efficiencies and carbon emission reductions at reduced cost, but will require further R&D to reach commercialization. If developed appropriately, biofuels can reduce carbon emissions and improve energy security, while enabling sustainable agriculture and improved natural resource management.
    Date: 2017
  27. By: Randall Jackson (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Péter Járosi (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Amir B. Ferreira Neto (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University); Elham Erfanian (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University)
    Abstract: This paper reports on economic and environmental impacts of introducing woody biomass processing in an economically distressed area in central Appalachia, one of the more heavily forested areas in the U.S. Woody biomass is a readily available unconventional energy source that has the potential to boost the rural region’s economy. We use a static regional computable general equilibrium model to assess regional economic impacts of two different WBP production pathways, biomass to ethanol and biomass to biofuel via fast pyrolysis. In an economy with a workforce approaching 160,000, we find that introducing woody biomass ethanol or fast pyrolysis processing would increase regional output by 0.45% and 0.78%, boost jobs by 0.13% and 0.20%, and increase income by 0.16% to 0.26%, respectively. The results from the environmental assessment show that the ethanol pathway is substantially more environmentally friendly than the fast pyrolysis pathway.
    Keywords: woody biomass processing, computable general equilibrium models, central Appalachia, rural economic development
    JEL: R58 R15 Q51
    Date: 2017–04–06
  28. By: Lidia Andrés Delgado (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona); Emilio Padilla Rosa (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona)
    Abstract: This research identifies the driving factors of greenhouse gas emissions in transport activity in the EU-28 and the contribution of each of them to its changes during the period 1990–2014. The analysis is based on the STIRPAT model, which is broadened to investigate in depth the impact on transport emissions of changes in the transport activity and in the whole economy. In short, the study takes into account the population, economic activity, transport volume, transport energy intensity and structural composition of transport activity in terms of transport modes’ share and of energy sources’ mix. Using panel data econometric techniques, the significance of each factor and the impact of its change on emissions are identified. A better knowledge of the key driving forces is crucial for implementing policies focused on successfully reducing emissions in transport activity. The results allow a preliminary assessment of the potential effectiveness of the 2011 Transport White Paper measures aimed at cutting transport emissions.
    Keywords: Greenhouse gas emissions; STIRPAT model; transport activity
    Date: 2017–03
  29. By: Mengying Cui; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: On-road emissions are a dominant source of urban air pollution, which damages human health. The "greenest path" is proposed as an alternative pattern of traffic route assignment to minimize the costs of emissions or exposure, pursues an environmentally optimal. The framework of a link-based emission cost analysis is built for both internal and external environmental costs and applied to the road network of the Twin Cities Metropolitan area based on the EPA MOVES model. The greenest (internal/external) path is skimmed for all OD pairs to compare the work trip flows on the roads and accessibility distribution. It is shown that the emission cost that travelers impose on others is greater than which they bear. Considering only external emissions costs thus produces a lower accessibility than considering only internal emissions costs. This research contributes to understanding the full cost of travel.
    Keywords: accessibility, Social Costs, Emissions, Pollution exposure, Environmental economics
    JEL: R40 Q53 R20
    Date: 2016
  30. By: Sharat Ganapati (Dept. of Economics, Yale University); Joseph S. Shapiro (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Reed Walker (University of California, Berkeley, IZA, & NBER)
    Abstract: This paper studies how changes in energy input costs for U.S. manufacturers affect the relative welfare of manufacturing producers and consumers (i.e. incidence). In doing so, we develop a partial equilibrium methodology to estimate the incidence of input taxes that can simultaneously account for three determinants of incidence that are typically studied in isolation: incomplete pass-through of input costs, differences in industry competitiveness, and factor substitution amongst inputs used for production. We apply this methodology to a set of U.S. manufacturing industries for which we observe plant-level unit prices and input choices. We find that about 70 percent of energy price-driven changes in input costs are passed through to consumers. We combine industry-specific pass-through rates with estimates of industry competitiveness to show that the share of welfare cost borne by consumers is 25-75 percent smaller (and the share borne by producers is correspondingly larger) than models featuring complete pass-through and perfect competition would suggest.
    Keywords: Pass-through, incidence, energy prices, productivity, climate change
    JEL: H22 H23 Q40 Q54
    Date: 2017–04
  31. By: Aldy, Joseph (Harvard University)
    Abstract: A carbon tax provides certainty about the price of emissions, but it does so in a context characterized by uncertainty about its environmental benefits, economic costs, and international relations implications. Given current knowledge, suppose that the government sets a carbon tax schedule. In the future, a higher (lower) carbon tax could be justified by the resolution of uncertainty along the following ways: climate change turns out to be worse (better) than current projections; the economic costs of a carbon tax are lower (higher) than expected; other major economies implement more (less) ambitious carbon mitigation programs. This paper describes the design of a predictable process for updating the carbon tax in light of new information. Under this "structured discretion" approach, every five years the president would recommend an adjustment to the carbon tax based on analyses by the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of the Treasury, and the Department of State on the environmental, economic, and diplomatic dimensions of climate policy. Similar to the expedited, streamlined consideration of regulations under the Congressional Review Act and trade deals under trade promotion authority, Congress would vote up or down on the presidential recommendation for a carbon tax adjustment, without the prospect of filibuster or amendment. This process could be synchronized with the timing of updating of nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement in a manner to leverage greater emissions mitigation ambition by other countries in future pledging rounds. The communication of guiding information and the latest data and analysis could serve as "forward guidance" for carbon tax adjustments, akin to the Federal Reserve Board's communication strategy.
    Date: 2017–01
  32. By: Michal Antoszewski; Krzysztof Wójtowicz
    Abstract: Unilateral emission reduction policy conducted by the EU may undermine competitiveness of European industries. In order to mitigate this risk, these industries are granted with free emission allowances based on their historical production („historical allocation”). However, another option which is currently discussed could be the linkage of free allowances amount to the current production level („dynamic allocation”). Such a rule which would not „punish” companies for output increases. Multi-sector, multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, calibrated to GTAP data. Counterfactual analysis aimed at comparison of various allocation rules. In general, dynamic allocation rule favors industries expected to record a relatively fast grow in the future. However, on the macroeconomic level, dynamic allocation rule differs very little from the historical one.
    Keywords: European Union, General equilibrium modeling, Energy and environmental policy
    Date: 2016–07–04
  33. By: Hayat*+, Arshad; Cahlik*✝, Tomas
    Abstract: In this paper, we use a threshold regression model to estimate a threshold level of natural resource abundance and split the sample of 70 countries into groups of low-natural resource and high-natural resource groups. We found evidence that FDI has a positive impact on economic growth of the host country if the host country’s natural resource sector is below the threshold. However, FDI inflow doesn’t have any significant impact on growth in countries with natural resource sector larger than the threshold. In the end, we apply a Markov regime switching model (MSM) to a time series data from Pakistan and found that Pakistan’s economy experienced 2 states. While in the state 1 the economy didn’t experience any FDI induced economic growth, it did receive a strong FDI induced economic growth in state 2.
    Keywords: FDI, Economic Growth, Natural Resources, Threshold Model, Markov Switching Model
    JEL: O47 P28 P45
    Date: 2017–04–10
  34. By: William D. Nordhaus
    Abstract: Many areas of the natural and social sciences involve complex systems that link together multiple sectors. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are approaches that integrate knowledge from two or more domains into a single framework, and these are particularly important for climate change. One of the earliest IAMs for climate change was the DICE/RICE family of models, first published in Nordhaus (1992), with the latest version in Nordhaus (2017, 2017a). A difficulty in assessing IAMs is the inability to use standard statistical tests because of the lack of a probabilistic structure. In the absence of statistical tests, the present study examines the extent of revisions of the DICE model over its quarter-century history. The study finds that the major revisions have come primarily from the economic aspects of the model, whereas the environmental changes have been much smaller. Particularly sharp revisions have occurred for global output, damages, and the social cost of carbon. These results indicate that the economic projections are the least precise parts of IAMs and deserve much greater study than has been the case up to now, especially careful studies of long-run economic growth (to 2100 and beyond).
    JEL: C6 Q5 Q54
    Date: 2017–04

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