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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Pless, Jacquelyn; Van Benthem, Arthur |
| Abstract: | We estimate the pass-through of solar energy subsidies to solar system prices. Rich micro-level transaction and subsidy data from California indicate that pass-through is remarkably high and differs substantially for consumers who buy versus lease solar systems. Buyers capture nearly the full subsidy, while there is more-than-complete pass-through to lessees. We formalize pass-through over-shifting as an under-utilized test for market power that can also be applied in other contexts. We rule out alternative explanations for over-shifting and conclude that our estimates provide evidence for imperfectly competitive solar markets. Our findings have implications for the distributional effects of energy subsidies. |
| Keywords: | buy vs. lease; demand curvature; market power; over-shifting; Pass-Through; solar subsidy; third-party ownership |
| JEL: | H22 Q42 Q48 Q58 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11908&r=ene |
| By: | Nan Yu (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW)) |
| Abstract: | This paper is a pioneer study which examines the innovation of renewable energy generation technologies based on residential patent applications in 30 regions of China between 2006 and 2015. Wind power, solar energy, geothermal energy, ocean energy, hydro power, and biomass & waste energy are the subject technologies for this analysis. Different indicators such as absolute numbers, growth rates and revealed technology advantages are used to measure the various green innovation dynamics in different regions. The results show that some regions with a higher number of patent applications or growth rates did not show stronger technological advantage (specialization) in such technologies. On the other hand, the region of Inner Mongolia shows a very strong specialization but with a much smaller number of patent applications. |
| Keywords: | renewable energy generation technologies, patent applications, innovation indicators, revealed technology advantage, Chinese regions |
| JEL: | O3 O31 O34 Q2 Q4 R11 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei230&r=ene |
| By: | Frondel, Manuel; Kutzschbauch, Ole; Sommer, Stephan; Traub, Stefan |
| Abstract: | Die Energiewende bürdet den Verbrauchern zunehmende Lasten auf. Relativ zu ihrem Einkommen fallen diese Belastungen für einkommensschwache Haushalte stäker aus als für einkommensstarke Haushalte. Die Ergebnisse unserer empirischen Erhebung unter mehr als 11.000 Haushalten zeigen jedoch, dass in der Regel eine Aufteilung der Kosten der Energiewende gewünscht wird, die Haushalte mit hohen Einkommen vergleichsweise stärker in die Pflicht nimmt als einkommensschwache Haushalte. Die auf dieser Grundlage von uns konstatierte Gerechtigkeitslücke zwischen der gewünschten und tatsächlichen Kostenbelastung der Haushalte nimmt mit den wachsenden Kosten der Energiewende voraussichtlich weiter zu. Diese Lücke könnte im Prinzip jedoch leicht geschlossen werden, wie die in diesem Beitrag dargestellten empirischen Schätzungen der Zahlungsbereitschaft der Haushalte für die Förderung der Erneuerbaren auf Basis von Diskreten-Wahl-Modellen nahelegen. So könnten die einkommenstärkeren Haushalte bei der Finanzierung der Energiewende stäker als bislang in die Pflicht genommen werden, da nach unseren Schätzergebnissen die Haushalte des oberen Einkommensdrittels eine statistisch signifikant höhere Zustimmung zu zukünftigen EEG-Umlageerhöhungen zeigen als die Haushalte des unteren Einkommensdrittels. |
| Keywords: | Verteilungswirkungen,Leistungsfähigkeitsprinzip,Erneuerbare |
| JEL: | D63 H3 Q4 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwimat:113&r=ene |
| By: | Ackah, Ishmael; A. Opoku, Freda; Suleman, Shafic |
| Abstract: | Open and competitive bidding process (toss a coin) promotes transparency, efficiency and cost reduction as compared to direct negotiations (shake a hand). This paper provides an overview of renewable energy interventions in Angola, Algeria, Cote Dvoire, Ghana and Nigeria. Further, best practices in Germany and South Africa are discussed. It was discovered that, apart from South Africa, most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa uses direct negotiations and feed-in-tariff which has contributed to high cost of renewables. The study recommends that countries should build tendering capacity, put in place simple but robust tendering process and research to identify their renewable energy potential to procure new renewable energy capacity through open and competitive bidding process. |
| Keywords: | Competitive Bidding, Renewable Energy Investments, Sub-Saharan Africa, Energy |
| JEL: | Q2 Q21 Q28 Q4 Q48 |
| Date: | 2017–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77489&r=ene |
| By: | Saad Al Jandal |
| Abstract: | Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR) has commissioned a number of research projects to carry out techno-economic assessments of clean energy power generation options, including efficient fossil fuel (ff) thermal and renewable energy (RE) plants. The objective of the assessments is to explore the potential capabilities and ranks of different clean technologies in meeting future energy demand in Kuwait. KISR, in close collaboration with the Kuwait National Nuclear Energy Committee (KNNEC), Ministry of Electricity & Water (MEW) and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC), completed the development of a TIMES-VEDA Kuwait Power and Water model (KPW). The multi-sector model was used to investigate future scenarios for power generation involving cost effect fossil fuel switching and RE energy technology options. The KPW model was constructed to represent the projected demands; the existing and planned power generation, and water desalination plants within the energy system of Kuwait. The representation included; the expected retirement of existing plants, future ff prices and availability. This was extended to include parameters for comparing assumed lower demand growth, lower oil and gas prices, higher RE costs or lower availability, RE capacity credit and higher plant investment costs under a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) optimization approach. The TIMES-VEDA KPW model time horizon covers the period from 2008 (the base year) and extending out to 2050, with emphasis focusing on the period of 2010 to 2030. The model identifies least-cost energy system configurations that satisfy all of the system constraints. The analysis shows that RE technologies provide complimentary fuel saving and emission reductions to fossil technology. The 2030 cost-effective electrical power generation share is 10%, given the projected costs for RE technologies. Increasing the RE target share to 20%, increases the 2030 costs by US8.3 billion. Higher capacity credit for solar PV and CSP technologies with storage increases the cost-effective RE shares to more than 9% and results in slightly higher investment in those technologies. RE, thus, contributes to fuel and emissions savings without necessarily compromising the reliability of the power system, seeing that the excess capacity already in place by the time it comes in. This paper presents the overview concept of establishing the KPW model and its construction approach. It discusses details of the methodology for conducting policy analysis, and a summary of the case study results related scenario analysis conducted during the modeling process. see above see above |
| Keywords: | Kuwait, Energy and environmental policy, Modeling: new developments |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8920&r=ene |
| By: | Lassana Cissokho |
| Abstract: | The objective of this studypaper is to quantify and analyze the adverse effects of power outages on the productivity of SMEs in Senegal, and to analyse how different this effect is across formal and informal sectors. To measure productivity, two indices of efficiency are considered: the technical and the scale efficiency scores. We analyzed how the measures of power outages affect firms’ productivity, and whether various alternatives to power generation are effective in reducing the potential productivity losses associated with power outages. Our empirical approach is twofold. The first part deals with the estimation of firms’ productivity. To do so, we use a non-parametric approach based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which is very popular in evaluating firms’ performance (Cooper et al., 2007). The second part uses alternatively each measure of efficiency (technical and allocative) and tries to understand what might drive differences in firms’ performance, in a regression analysis using the generalized linear model. This paper assesses the impact of electricity outages on firms’ productivity in Senegal. Productivity is measured using technical and scale efficiency scores. Results from a generalized linear model, based on survey data from 528 businesses, indicate that power outages have a negative effect on technical and scale efficiency. Further, it apperas that small SMEs are more successful in dealing with scale efficiency. Finding a solution to the power outage issue, and access to loans and/or credit lines affected scale efficiencies. Now it is very likely that sectoral rection differs, as well as the that of formal and informal entities. Formal SMEs, more likely to access to formal banking resources, should suffer less compared to the informal ones. The sectoral effects are likely to be different also. |
| Keywords: | Senegal, Sectoral issues, Agent-based modeling |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8239&r=ene |
| By: | Raphaël Homayoun Boroumand; Georg Zachmann |
| Abstract: | The advent of retail competition in the energy industry was concomitant with the explicit emergence of energy suppliers.The latter buys electricity on the wholesale market or contractually from producers and resells it to its customers. The “textbook model” of competitive decentralized energy markets required the vertical separation of generation, retail, as well as network activities (transmission and distribution). Introducing competition at the retail level was thought to imply the emergence and development of “asset-light suppliers” who neither own generating nor distribution assets. By offering innovative retail contracts with attractive prices to electricity consumers, those suppliers were expected to generate a fierce price-competition (Hunt 2002; Hunt and Schuttleworth, 1997). However, in stark contrast to this theoretical vision, asset-light retail entry has never eventuated as expected. Asset-light suppliers bankrupted, left the market, were taken over, or evolved towards an integration into production in all retail markets. Departing from this unexpected market outcome, the paper compares hourly risk hedging portfolios for three European markets relying on hourly electricity volumes and price data. The paper is organized as follows: in section 2 we put forward the market risks faced by energy suppliers. Section 3 demonstrates the limits of financial hedging in liberalized electricity markets. Section 4 is devoted to comparing from numerical simulations the risk profiles of different hourly hedging portfolios’ made exclusively (or conjointly) of forwards, financial options, and/ or physical assets. The last section concludes and provides regulatory and policy recommendations. We demonstrate through a Monte Carlo simulation based on 6000 hourly electricity volume and price data, how portfolios can be optimized to reduce suppliers net revenue exposure. We use the Value at Risk (95%) and the CVAR to compare the risk profiles of the portfolios. Through the presented numerical simulations we provide evidence, that energy suppliers can hedge the market risks originating from their retail contracts by either a combination of forwards and options on the spot price or by a combination of forwards and physical assets. In all observed electricity markets, however, liquid derivatives on the spot market are absent (Geman, 2005; Hull, 2005). Thus, the only real choice for suppliers is to hedge their retail obligations through physical hedging (investing in electricity plants). These, however, might help to significantly reduce a supplier’s risk exposure. Consequently, as long as derivatives markets are not sufficiently liquid, suppliers will strive to vertically integrate to hedge their risk exposure. We also propose portfolio optimization based on intraday hedging of electricity intermediaries. Indeed, our results clearly demonstrate that the optimal hedging portfolio varies in relation with the hours of the day. First, our model demonstrates that the average of the cumulated hourly losses [as measured by the average VaR(95%)]of the seven homogeneous group of hours is lower than the VaR (95%) of a single daily optimal portfolio. Therefore, we propose several optimal hedging portfolios per day. Secondly, for any group of hours, we demonstrate that the optimal portfolio is specific. Conclusions and policy recommendations Our paper demonstrates that physical hedging, supported to some degree by forward contracting and spot transactions is an efficient and sustainable approach to risk management in decentralized electricity markets. In contrast to the theoretical premises, financial contracts are imperfect substitutes to vertical integration in the current market environment. The failure of asset-light electricity suppliers is indicative of the intrinsic incapacity of this organizational model to manage efficiently the combination of sourcing and selling risks. Vertically integrated, suppliers will maximize profits by relying on tacit price collusion in an oligopoly setting, which radically constrasts with the expected price competition envisioned in the reference market model of electricity liberalization. The role of competition auhthorities will therefore consist in stimulating competition between vertically integrated suppliers. |
| Keywords: | France, UK, Energy and environmental policy, Finance |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8491&r=ene |
| By: | Afzal S. SIDDIQUI; TANAKA Makoto; Yihsu CHEN |
| Abstract: | We explore the role of a transmission system operator (TSO) that builds a transmission line to accommodate renewable energy while attempting to lower emissions. A TSO in a deregulated electricity industry can only indirectly influence outcomes through its choice of the transmission line capacity. Via a bi-level model, we show that this results in less transmission capacity and with limited emissions control in a perfectly competitive industry vis-a-vis a benchmark centrally planned system. Surprisingly, a carbon tax on industry leads to a perfect alignment of incentives and maximized social welfare only under perfect competition. By contrast, a carbon tax actually lowers social welfare under a Cournot oligopoly as the resulting reduction in consumption facilitates the further exercise of market power. |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:17024&r=ene |
| By: | Pereira, Alfredo; Pereira, Rui |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze the budgetary, economic, distributional and environmental effects of a permanent increase in Portugal of the value added tax on electricity spending. The analysis in conducted in the context of a new multi-sector and multi-household dynamic general equilibrium model of the Portuguese economy. Simulation results suggest that a permanent increase in the VAT on electricity from 6% to 23% has positive budgetary and environmental effects but both come at the cost of detrimental economic and distributional effects. As economic performance in Portugal improves and the public budgetary situation becomes less constraining, it is inevitable that pressure will mount for this increase in the VAT rate on electricity to be reversed. This mixed bag of results provides an important element in this debate. Reverting to a VAT tax rate of 6% on electricity, would improve economic performance and have positive distributional effects. From this perspective such reversion would be desirable. The question is then whether or not the public budget can somehow compensate for the loss of revenues in a way that would not eliminate the positive economic and distributional effects of such reversion. |
| Keywords: | Value Added Tax on Electricity, Dynamic Multi-Sector General Equilibrium, Portugal |
| JEL: | D58 H24 Q43 |
| Date: | 2017–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77594&r=ene |
| By: | Mulder, M.; Willems, Bert (Tilburg University, TILEC) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines a decade of retail competition in the Dutch electricity market and discusses market structure, regulation, and market performance. We find a proliferation of product variety, in particular by the introduction of quality-differentiated green-energy products. Product innovation could be a sign of a well-functioning market that caters to customer’s preferences, but it can also indicate a strategic product differentiation to soften price competition. Although slightly downward trending, gross retail margins remain relatively high, especially for green products. Price dispersion across retailers for identical products remains high, as also across products for a single retailer. We do not find evidence of asymmetric pass-through of wholesale costs. Overall, the retail market matured as evidenced by fewer consumer complaints and higher switching rates. A fairly intensive regulation of mature energy retail markets appears to be needed to create benefits for consumers. |
| Keywords: | retail electricity market; competition; regulation; ex-post assessment |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutil:2244d9a8-abf3-464d-aad7-e3c0a10e1b83&r=ene |
| By: | Eoin Ó Broin (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - ENGREF - Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural, des Eaux et des Forêts - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Chalmers University of Technology [Gothenburg]); Érika Mata (Chalmers University of Technology [Gothenburg]); Jonas Nässén (Chalmers University of Technology [Gothenburg]); Filip Johnsson (Chalmers University of Technology [Gothenburg]) |
| Abstract: | We present a method for quantifying the energy efficiency gap ex-ante. To do this we define the energy efficiency gap as being the difference between the ex-ante market and techno-economic energy savings potentials. The estimation of market potential is based on top-down (econometric) modelling of energy demand using data from the period 1970–2005. The techno-economic estimates are made using a bottom-up building stock model (ECCABS), to assess the effects and cost-efficiency of various energy efficiency measures. Common to these two modelling approaches are two scenarios of energy prices, which differ only with respect to the carbon tax component. We implement the method for the case of useful energy demand for space and water heating in the Swedish residential sector up to 2030. In comparison to the level of energy use in 2005 (74 TWh), the top-down model predicts for 2030 reductions in demand for the two price scenarios of 17 TWh and 21 TWh, respectively. The bottom-up model predicts corresponding reductions in demand of 25 TWh and 31 TWh, respectively. Thus, there is an energy efficiency gap between the two models of at least 8 TWh in 2030. An implicit discount rate of 10% would render the results from the bottom-up modelling identical to those from the top-down modelling. However the presence of the energy efficiency gap indicates that there is a need for enhanced policies in order to make future reductions in energy demand reach the levels predicted by the bottom-up modelling. |
| Keywords: | Energy efficiency gap,Bottom-up,Residential,Top-down,Heating,Ex-ante |
| Date: | 2015–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01219283&r=ene |
| By: | Ackah, Ishmael |
| Abstract: | Reducing the amount of energy used in producing a given output is a cost-effective way of tackling global warming. In addition, energy efficiency promotes energy security and saves cost. This study is structured in three parts. First, the energy efficiency practices of small and medium scale enterprises in rural Ghana are investigated. Second, the study applies the Product Generational Dematerialisation method to examine the energy efficiency consumption of electricity and fossil fuels in Ghana. Finally, the general unrestricted model (GUM) is applied to energy consumption in Ghana. The results reveal that reduction in energy consumption among SMEs can be attributed mostly to blackouts and not efficiency as indicated by 72% of the respondents. Further, all three models confirmed that the consumption of energy has not been efficient. Further, productivity was found to be a major driver of energy efficiency. The study recommends public education and the use of new appliances (‘not second hand’) to save energy. |
| Keywords: | Energy Efficiency, Energy Consumption, Ghana, Product Generational Dematerialization, SMEs |
| JEL: | Q2 Q21 Q28 Q4 Q41 |
| Date: | 2017–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77484&r=ene |
| By: | Kaltenegger, Oliver; Löschel, Andreas; Pothe, Frank |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of global value chains on energy footprints. Energy footprints are consumption-based indicators which record the energy used to produce a country's final demand. In order to disentangle key characteristics of global value chains and their effects on the global energy footprint, we employ structural decomposition analyses (SDA). Furthermore, the analysis combines a retrospective with a prospective SDA approach. After an analysis of the global energy footprint for the period between 1995 and 2009, we discuss three scenarios of international integration and their implications for energy footprints for the period from 2009 to 2030. Our results show that the global energy footprint has increased by 29.4% from 1995 to 2009, and the scenarios indicate that it will increase by another 23.5% until 2030. Economic activity is the most important driver for the increase in energy footprints. Rising final demand alone would have increased the global energy footprint by 47.0% between 1995 and 2009. The composition of countries from where consumption and investment goods come adds another 12.6%. Sectoral energy intensity reductions are the most important decelerator of energy use (-27.8%). There is a substantial contribution of changing global value chains on the rise in the global energy footprint (7.5%): Stronger backward linkages in global value chains increased the global energy footprint by 5.5% between 1995 and 2009. Changes in the regional composition of intermediate inputs raised it by another 1.8%. The shift of the world economy towards East Asia alone would have increased the global energy footprint by 3.0%. The sectoral composition of global value chains, on the other hand, had a negligible effect on energy footprints. |
| Keywords: | Energy footprints,Global value chains,Structural decomposition analysis,Logarithmic mean Divisia index,Multi-regional input-output analysis,Environmental-economic accounting |
| JEL: | C43 C67 C82 F18 Q43 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cawmdp:94&r=ene |
| By: | Elena Stolyarova; Hélène Le Cadre, MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University, Centre for Applied Mathematics; Dominique Osso, EDF R&D, ENERgie dans les BAtiments et les Territoires; Benoit Allibe |
| Abstract: | this paper, we use a discrete choice experiment on space heating for both detached houses and apartments in France. In our choice experiment, we asked 1,820 respondents, both owners and tenants, to imagine that their current space heating system had broken down and that they had to choose a new one to replace it. A multinomial logit model was used to analyze the households preferences and willingness to pay for various space heating system attributes. We found that in general households prefer renewable sources and systems, but avoid wood. Preferences for familiar technologies have a considerable impact on the probabilities of choice and could represent a significant obstacle to the development of energy-ecient equipment. Willingness to pay for attributes that control energy consumption depends on thermal comfort preferences. The more cold-sensitive the household, the more willing it is to invest to renewable energy sources and to set temperature management. At the first time we modeling the household utility function derived from thermal comfort (annual space heating service) which is a strictly increasing and concave function of indoor temperature. The households can obtain additional utility from energy efficiency after the dwelling renovation. This renovation allows not only to reach the thermal comfort at least cost, but also to enjoy the advantages of new installation as a brand, type of heating system, internal or external solid wall insulation, type of heat emitters, energy source (natural gas, electricity, wood, etc.), control system to manage set temperature of space heating, etc. The utility, derived from retrofit works, is a function of purchase attributes and constant over time. The households choose the level of indoor temperature and decide to invest in retrofit works in order to maximize their utility, subject to available income which is sufficient to cover energy bills. We use annual degree heating days, function of indoor temperature, to calculate energy bills. Household and firm are supposed to be risk averse. In order to analyze household preferences for energy efficiency works, we adapt the econometric approach based on the Random Utility Model (RUM), also known as discrete choice analysis. The random utility function is decomposed in two parts. One is observable by the researcher and can be estimated, the other one is considered to be random. The RUM allows us to obtain the probability to invest in different retrofit works. Data At the beginning of January 2015 a sample of 2000 respondents is collected by internet from a panel of 600,000 French Households. The survey consists of two parts (revealed preferences data and two choice experiments) and contains questions about socio-economic and demographic information, dwelling conditions, energy attitudes, space heating system and thermal comfort. We uses a balancing orthogonal fractional factorial design with main effects only to design the choice experiments. In the first choice experiment, the respondent must take a choice between three offers of space heating systems in order to replace the old system which is broken down. The offers are characterized by the following attributes: investment cost, expected energy-savings potential, energy used, type of space heating system, guarantee period, control system to manage set temperature, financial grant and bank loan. In the second choice experiment, we propose to improve energy efficiency of respondent’s dwelling. The respondent must choose between three offers: install new space heating system, insulate walls and roof, to do both. Or the respondent can decide do not invest in retrofits works. The offers’ attributes are the same as in first choice situation. We expect that the study will provide us the information about different thermal comfort profile of French households (most preferred indoor temperature, causes of discomfort). The choices situations will used to find the willingness to pay and reservation prices for energy efficiency works. The program of contract between household and firm will allow us to understand French renovation market and propose some solutions to increase the energy efficiency works, the market share of renewable and environmental friendliness equipment. |
| Keywords: | France, Energy and environmental policy, Microsimulation models |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8579&r=ene |
| By: | Nazir, Sidra |
| Abstract: | Abstract: Whether models are nested or non-nested it is important to be able to compare them and evaluate their comparative results. In this study three energy-growth models by Kraft and Kraft (1978) and Dantama, Zakari, Inuwa (2011) has used, and third model has modified by joining and adding dummies in it. By using these three models we have tested them for non-nested and nested encompassing through Cox test and F-test respectively. |
| Keywords: | nested, non-nested, encompassing, energy growth |
| JEL: | C1 C52 O4 |
| Date: | 2017–03–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77487&r=ene |
| By: | Anton Orlov |
| Abstract: | At the end of 2014, Russia and China signed a framework for the second gas agreement. According to this agreement, Russia will supply 30 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas to China over 30 years via the future Altai pipeline, which would connect Asian and European gas markets. This paper analyses the potential impacts of the second gas agreement on the European gas market. The analysis is based on an analytical and numerical Hotelling model. The core Hotelling model has been modified as follows: (i) three gas markets (Europe, China, and Russia) are considered; (ii) Russia is assumed to have market power in the European and Chinese gas markets; (iii) domestic gas prices are regulated in Russia; (iv) a finite planning horizon, which implies that agents plan for a finite future, is incorporated; and (v) a stock effect, which occurs when the marginal production cost is affected by the remaining stock, is introduced. In the numerical Hotelling model, the European gas market is depicted as oligopolistic competition in a game theoretical framework. The numerical Hotelling model is formulated as a mixed complementarity problem. The analysis leads to several interesting findings. Export netback gas prices for Europe and China should not necessarily be the same due to different degrees of market power, even if the resource constraint is binding. Gas exports to China will not necessarily result in re-optimisation of the Russian profit maximisation strategy in Europe, at least in the medium-term. Given the assumptions of a finite planning horizon and large gas reserves, Russia could face a non-binding resource constraint. In that case, Russia will continue to supply gas to Europe. Nevertheless, gas exports to China ultimately reduce the potential of Russia to supply gas to Europe in the long-term. Our results show that Russia could take a stronger bargaining position after 2050, when scarcity concerns could become more pronounced. Furthermore, in the presence of a stock effect, Russia could bargain with Europe for a higher gas price to compensate for an increase in the marginal production cost. Under a supply elasticity equalling unity, the stock effect could result in an annual reduction in the export supply of gas to Europe by 12 bcm. Nevertheless, scarcity concerns as well as adverse stock effects could be diminished if implicit subsidies on domestic gas consumption are reduced in Russia. The domestic gas market covers a large potential for gas exports. A 20% increase in the domestic gas price in Russia could potentially release 29 bcm of gas for export markets annually. We use a dynamic multi-region multi-sector CGE model. The Russia-China gas deal can lead to a substantial reduction in CO2 emission via a reduction in coal consumption. Furthermore, the average gas price in Europe can be increased because of reallocation of Russian gas from the European to the Asian gas market. |
| Keywords: | Russia; EU; China, Energy and environmental policy, Impact and scenario analysis |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8624&r=ene |
| By: | Nick Taylor |
| Abstract: | The rewards to speculative trading in the crude oil futures market are assessed. For investors who adopt timing strategies that maximise their (iso-elastic) utility during each trading session, the rewards can be economically significant providing that transaction costs are small. Moreover, we are able to show via a decomposition of performance that the bulk of this benefit is due to their ability to predict realised volatility (that is, the second realised moment). The benefits derived from predicting other realised moments either require unrealistic levels of skill(all odd moments) or an infeasible degree of risk aversion (the fourth moment and higher even moments). |
| Keywords: | Crude oil futures, timing strategies, realised moments, volatility. |
| JEL: | C22 C53 C58 G11 G17 |
| Date: | 2017–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:accfin:17/7&r=ene |
| By: | Angi Roesch; Harald Schmidbauer |
| Abstract: | Equity markets on the one hand and the crude oil market on the other do not operate in isolation, the foreign exchange market being another agent in the interplay. The focus of our study is to determine whether a leading market can be identified.One way to assess the degree of interaction between markets is to measure news-to-volatility spillovers from one market to another in terms of forecast error variance decompositions (fevds) of daily returns on their prices. This approach leads to a directed network with markets as nodes and edge weights defined by spillovers, which provides the basis for a methodology to assess a market's relative importance with respect to shock propagation (what we call its "propagation value") and to monitor further information-theoretic aspects of the network's dynamics and stability. The concepts of wavelet coherency enable us to detect cyclicalities in the network's dynamics and to assess which markets are leading, while others are lagging.This methodology permits to find out whether (i) markets have converged with respect to relative importance during recent years, (ii) which market is leading others with respect to information propagation. |
| Keywords: | Dow Jones (New York), WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil, and USD per euro exchange rate, Finance, Modeling: new developments |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8684&r=ene |
| By: | Hilde C. Bjørnland; Frode Martin Nordvik; Maximilian Rohrer |
| Abstract: | We analyse if output flexibility in oil production depends on the extraction technology.In particular, we ask to what extent shale oil producers respond to price incentives by changing completion of new wells as well as oil production from completed wells. Using a novel well-level monthly production data set covering more than 15,000 crude oil wells in North Dakota, we find large differences in response between conventional and unconventional (shale) extraction technology: While shale oil wells respond significantly to spot future spreads by changing both well completion and crude oil production, conventional wells do not. Our results indicate that firms using shale oil technology are more flexible in allocating output intertemporally. We interpret such output pattern of shale oil wells to be consistent with the Hotelling theory of optimal extraction. |
| Keywords: | Oil extraction, crude oil prices, US oil shale boom, Hotelling theory |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bny:wpaper:0051&r=ene |
| By: | Naser, Hanan; Ahmed, Abdul Rashid |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the response of real stock prices to oil price shocks for four selected emerging economies over the period January 1991–March 2011. To overcome the problem of omitted information in small-scale vector autoregression (VAR) models, we utilize the factor augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach proposed by Bernanke et al. (2005). Accordingly, we follow Stock and Watson (2002b) and extract two factors which are significantly related with a large set of world-level and country-specific macroeconomic variables. We use the extracted factors as regressors in recursive VARs to assess the response of stock prices to oil price shocks. Our results suggest that the response of stock prices to oil price shocks is quite persistent and precise, but asymmetric across all the four economies. Specifically, we observe that stock prices in Brazil and India respond negatively to oil price shocks, whereas the response of stock prices to oil price shocks in China is positive. We also observe that stock prices in Russia initially respond positively, however, the response becomes negative after four months. The impulse-response results indicate that the impact of oil price shocks on stock prices is smaller for China than that of for remaining three countries. Overall, our results suggest that the use of FAVAR approach allows us to obtained more coherent evidence on the effects of oil price shocks on stock prices by obtaining relatively more precise responses and by increasing the understanding of such shocks from the theoretical point of view. |
| Keywords: | emerging economies; stock prices, oil price shocks, FAVAR |
| JEL: | C58 G15 O4 |
| Date: | 2016–12–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77868&r=ene |
| By: | Luc Désiré Omgba |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the sources of variability in the mobilization of domestic tax revenue in oil-producing countries. It argues that the type of natural resources exploited during colonial rule can affect the contemporary levels of domestic tax revenue in oil countries. We test this conjecture by regressing non-oil tax revenue on a proxy of extractive capacity, which is the distance between the date of the beginning of oil production and the date of a country’s political independence. The results show that this proxy of extractive capacity positively affects the nonoil tax revenue of oil-producing countries, and these results are robust to various sensitivity checks. The persistence of the pre-existing extractive institutions as well as their subsequent privileged position explain why the elites have no interest in changing this scenario. |
| Keywords: | tax revenues, oil resources, economic history |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2016-154&r=ene |
| By: | Antonella Cavallo; Antonio Ribba |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to assess the effects of external macroeconomic shocks on business cycles of Central and Eastern European Countries, not yet Euro-area members. Using quarterly data from 1999 to 2015 and the structural near-VAR methodology, we focus on the effects of Euro-area monetary policy and global oil price shocks on prices and output of the analyzed countries. Results show that business cycle fluctuations are mainly explained by domestic shocks in the short run, while monetary policy and oil price shocks play an increasing role in the medium run. Adding domestic fiscal shocks the overall picture does not change significantly, since fiscal policy turns out to be a minor driver of business cycle fluctuations in CEECs. |
| Keywords: | CEECs; Business Cycle Fluctuations; Euro Area; Common Shocks; near-Structural VAR |
| JEL: | C32 E32 Q43 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:recent:128&r=ene |
| By: | Gbadebo Oladosu |
| Abstract: | Oil remains the top resource for meeting global energy requirements, and is one of the most widely traded commodities. With different levels of petroleum production, exports and consumption, developments in the oil market have far-reaching and varied consequences across regions. Policymakers and analyst alike are interested in understanding the sources of price movements, and its implications for the economy. This paper evaluates the regional economic impacts of oil markets changes across the globe. Simulations are performed with the energy policy in general equilibrium (EPGE) model, a 19-region and 49-sector global dynamic economic model with a 2004 base year. The simulations evaluate a number of scenarios that include changes oil demand and supply, as well as other sources of shocks to the oil price. Results highlight economic impacts in terms of changes in the gross domestic product, sectoral outputs and prices, employment and other indicators of economic performance. |
| Keywords: | Global, Energy and environmental policy, General equilibrium modeling |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8405&r=ene |
| By: | Y. Li; C.J.M. Kool; P.J. Engelen |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we explicitly incorporate the impact that realized investment in new infrastructure has on adoption speed in a real options framework for investment decisions and analyze the consequences of this dependence for optimal investment. For the adoption diffusion process, we use a modified Generalized Bass Model. As an illustration, we apply the combined model to the case of the introduction of hydrogen- cars in the Netherlands. We perform a scenario analysis for six different infrastructure investment strategies combined with four different parameterizations. The results show that ignoring the potential interaction between the speed with which the required infrastructure will become available and the adoption process may lead to sub-optimal decisions with respect to the optimal timing of investment spending as well as with respect to the assessment of the feasibility of the project in general. |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:1612&r=ene |
| By: | Cristina Sarasa; Virginie Doumax |
| Abstract: | In the last years, first-generation biofuels have been denounced as harmful in regards to their impacts on food crops prices, land use changes and ecological damages. As a consequence, recent regulations on biofuels require reporting on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. However, capturing all emissions involved in both biofuels production and use is quite tricky. In addition, the inclusion of GHG emissions from land-use changes (LUC) into law and policy remains a subject of active discussion in the literature, and feeding an intense research (Panichelli and Gnansounou, 2015). In this context, governments are very hesitant about supporting public policies for biofuels. While waiting for the 2009 Renewable Energy Directive to be revised, the European Union (EU) Parliament has called on the September 11th 2013 for a 6% limitation of crop-based biofuels and proposed a 2.5% binding incorporation target for advanced biofuels by 2020. But on June 13th 2014, the EU energy ministers came to a quite different agreement. In the latter, the limitation of first-generation biofuels is raised to 7% and none compulsory objective is defined for advanced biofuels. Member states only have to encourage the transition towards second and third-generation biofuels, and to respect a minimal incorporation rate of 0.5% in road transports. Those lower ambitions result from the EU biofuels industry claims and their fears about long-term profitability. New negotiations are expected in 2015 to adopt a common text. But the current contradictory views between the EU Parliament and energy ministers make the outcome largely uncertain. In this context, the main purpose of this work is to understand how to give a new direction for biofuels supporting policies to promote them without hurting the environment and the wellbeing of people. To do it, we address two objectives simultaneously. First, we carry out an exhaustive study of the current situation of the biofuels industry in the European Union. With this study, we are interested in answering the following questions: Which are the impacts of the former incorporation targets of biofuels in different countries? In which stage are EU countries in the process of production and commercialization of both first-generation and advanced biofuels? This first part allows us to identify risks associated to support policies to biofuels and to outline the best strategies depending on the aims pursued. Second, we assess a revision of the key modelling choices for evaluating the impact of biofuels production and consumption. The direct and indirect impacts of biofuels consumption on the environment may notably be significant. Therefore, this second part studies the methodologies and techniques applied on biofuels through a revision of Input-Output models and Computable General Equilibrium models, focusing on the best approach to estimate LUC-GHG emissions as well. We provide guidelines to address the carbon emissions associated to biofuels, and particularly to report the LUC–GHG emissions. These insights may help deciders to define new support policies and modellers to choose the best approach to estimate the complex impacts of agricultural-based biofuel production. Keywords: Biofuels, GHG emissions, Land use changes, Modelling References Panichelli, L. and Gnansounou, E. (2015), « Impact of agricultural-based biofuel production on greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change: Key modelling choices », Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 42(2015) 344–360. |
| Keywords: | European Union, Energy and environmental policy, Modeling: new developments |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8626&r=ene |
| By: | (School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews); Koji Tokimatsu (Tokyo Institute of Technology); Nick Hanley (School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews) |
| Abstract: | Climate policies can have impacts which show up in multiple sectors of the economy and which change consumption levels over time, besides the changes in emissions which such policies bring about. We show how the sustainability indicator Genuine Savings can be endogenised within a general equilibrium model and used a sa criterion for judging the impacts of such policies or growth scenarios. We combine life cycle analytical approaches with a multi-country macroeconomic model which includes the economic costs of emissions from economic activity, and impacts on biodiversity and net primary productivity. The model is used to calculate values for Genuine Savings, where the shadow prices used to measure the value of asset changes is derived from the model structure. Differences in Genuine Savings over different greenhouse emission scenarios are discussed, scenarios which also consider the effects of pricing impacts on other pollutants and on biodiversity, and the effects of changes in population and the rate of growth of productivity. A key result which emerges is the key role of the rate of technological change relative to the population growth rate, if wellbeing is to be sustained over the next 50 years. |
| Keywords: | Genuine Savings (GS), integrated assessment model (IAM), lifecycle impact assessment (LCIA), sustainability; policy analysis |
| JEL: | Q01 Q54 Q56 |
| Date: | 2017–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sss:wpaper:2017-07&r=ene |
| By: | José Belbute (Department of Economics, University of Évora and CEFAGE-UE); Alfredo M. Pereira (Department of Economics, College of William and Mary, Williamsburg) |
| Abstract: | We provide alternative reference forecasts for global CO2 emissions based on an ARFIMA model estimated with annual data from 1750 to 2014. These forecasts are free from additional assumptions on demographic and economic variables that are commonly used in reference forecasts, as they only rely on the properties of the underlying stochastic process for CO2 emissions, as well as on all the observed information it incorporates. In this sense, these forecasts are more based on fundamentals. Our reference forecast suggests that in 2030, 2040 and 2050, in the absence of any structural changes of any type, CO2 would likely be at about 23.1%, 29.1% and 33.7% above 2010 emission levels, respectively. These values are clearly below the levels proposed by other reference scenarios available in the literature. This is important, as it suggests that the ongoing policy goals are actually within much closer reach than what is implied by the standard CO2 reference emission scenarios. Having lower and more realistic reference emissions projections not only gives a truer assessment of the policy efforts that are needed, but also highlights the lower costs involved in mitigation efforts, thereby maximizing the likelihood of more widespread energy and environmental policy efforts. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting; Reference scenario; CO2 emissions; Long memory; ARFIMA. |
| JEL: | C22 C53 O13 Q47 Q54 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cfe:wpcefa:2016_08&r=ene |
| By: | Yongbin Zhu; Yajuan Shi; Zheng Wang |
| Abstract: | Industrial structure adjustment is one of major routes to upgrading the industries and reducing the carbon emissions. Where the industrial structure will evolve that performs the best for the well-being of the social members, and how the energy consumption will change due to the industrial structure change is our concern here. we built a Multi-sector Inter-temporal Dynamic Optimization (MIDO) model by combining the Ramsey-type neo-classical optimal growth model with the general equilibrium model, where the foresight property of consumers and the input-output relationship of each sector are considered. In the optimization objective, we extended the conventional social utility of aggregated consumption in Ramsey model by summing up a weighed utility from consuming goods/services of each sector. The weight in utility function refers to the consuming preference of each sector. Furthermore, the simulation scenarios are built on the presumption that the consuming preference pattern might change with its development stage. So we assumed one scenario follows the present preference of China and three alternative scenarios based on the consuming preference of US, EU and Japan, to study the consumer preference oriented industrial structure evolution for China and the according energy demand trends in each scenario. Our simulation can give us a detailed trend of all economic variables, such as the GDP, output, energy demand, consumption, investment and so forth of each sector during the whole planning period. The preliminary results indicate that the share of Agriculture as well as the Food & Clothes sectors will shrink, while the Other Services sector sees its share enlarging under all four preference patterns. In the Scen-China scenario, if the preference pattern of Chinese consumers applies to Chinese economy, the shares of Heavy-Manufacture, Transport, Chemicals and Metals sectors continue to increase, while those high energy-exhaustive sectors witness their shares decreasing if the preference pattern of American consumers applies to Chinese economy in the Scen-US scenario. Otherwise, the shares of Transport and Chemicals in Scen-EU scenario will decline slightly if the preference pattern of EU consumers applies to Chinese economy; and in Scen_JP scenario the Transport sector’s share will rise and the Metals’ share will drop if the preference pattern of Japanese consumers applies to Chinese economy. It will manifest an inversed-U shape trend of the aggregated energy use of China, due to industrial structure change and energy efficiency improvement. The gross energy use in the Scen-China, Scen-EU, Scen-JP and Scen-US will considerably decline from 2810 Mtoe to 2166 Mtoe for the peak value of energy use. Therefore, the preference pattern of US consumers is relatively better than that of JP consumers, than that of EU consumers and that of Chinese consumers from the perspective of energy conservation and emission reduction. |
| Keywords: | China, Modeling: new developments, Optimization models |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8297&r=ene |
| By: | Blázquez De Paz, Mario (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | A successful transformation to a carbon neutral energy system requires the correct investments in transmission and production capacity. In a zonal pricing electricity market, the one proposed by the European Commission to integrate the European electricity markets, I analyze the effects that investments in transmission and production capacity have on consumer welfare and suppliers’ profits. In the specific setting of this paper, I show that when the competition is perfect, an investment in transmission capacity between zones (inter Transmission System Operator (TSO) investment) and an investment in production capacity generate the same equilibrium outcome allocations. In contrast, when the competition is imperfect, an inter TSO investment and an investment in production capacity generate different equilibrium outcome allocations. |
| Keywords: | Electricity auctions; Wholesale electricity markets; Transmission capacity constraints; Investment transmission capacity; Investment production capacity; |
| JEL: | D43 D44 L13 L94 |
| Date: | 2017–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1158&r=ene |
| By: | Yanshuo Zhu; Wang Zheng; Zhu Yongbin; Shi Ying1 |
| Abstract: | The anthropogenic-induced climate change is mainly caused by the fossil energy and the effect of the energy evolution to the emission reduction is what the paper key concerns. In ensuring the economic costs as the most important factor of the goal, fully consider the substitution effect between various energy technologies and impact of technological advances in the evolution of energy mix. With the flexible connection of the equilibrium between energy supply and demand, we constructed a hybrid model with the optimal balanced growth structure and the energy dynamic optimization. The simulation is consisting of tow parts, (1)China's energy structure evolutionary trend under the unconstrained freedom emissions(2)Carbon emissions and energy structure evolutionary trend based on carbon tax policy. |
| Keywords: | China, Energy and environmental policy, Energy and environmental policy |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8330&r=ene |
| By: | Shreekar Pradhan; J. Scott Holladay; Mohammed Mohsin; Shreekar Pradhan |
| Abstract: | We analyze the properties of environmental policy instruments in the face of uncertainty for an economy that is open to international trade and capital mobility (open economy). We incorporate three static environmental policy instruments which could be inefficient: cap-and-trade, pollution tax and emission intensity standard in our model and evaluate their properties under an exogenous temporary productivity shocks to simulate business cycles and an exogenous temporary abatement cost shock to represent reduced costs of clean inputs (for example cheap natural gas due to fracking). We then compare impacts on welfare, pollution levels, outputs, consumption, investment, supply of labor and trade flows in the economy. To date this literature has either focused on either economies under autarky or in a static modeling framework with a focus on strategic interaction among agents and thus ignore an additional channel of international trade and capital mobility that may smooth the intensity of business cycle shock or abatement cost breakthrough. We develop a small open economy (SOE) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where we incorporate international trade and capital mobility. We evaluate long term properties and use DYNARE to evaluate short term (dynamic) properties. Our results suggest that the preferred environmental policy instrument varies with the source of uncertainty. The cap-and-trade policies are best suited to smooth the business cycle while pollution taxes and intensity targets are most effective in the face of abatement cost shocks. We find that the magnitude of the productivity shock's impact on the economy swamps the impact of an abatement cost shock. This suggests that a cap-and-trade policy, which performs best in the face of productivity shocks, should be the preferred policy instrument in most cases. In our model, calibrated to Canadian data, a one standard deviation productivity shock has nearly an order of magnitude larger impact than a one standard deviation abatement cost shock. |
| Keywords: | Canadian Economy, Energy and environmental policy, Business cycles |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8102&r=ene |
| By: | Solmaria Halleck Vega (PSE - Paris School of Economics, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Antoine Mandel (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In light of the urgency of climate change, there is a growing literature on the role of technology transfers and how policy can foster diffusion of climate-mitigation technologies. An important challenge is that the diffusion network is generally unknown. To address this key issue, we propose a systemic method building on the network inference literature. We then apply this approach using data on global diffusion patterns of wind energy technologies since the 1980s. Results show that the network's evolution has been remarkable, consistent with the colossal growth and technological progress in wind power over the past decades and the leading role of European firms and other advanced economies in its development. In the context of climate policy and given the multipolar nature and structural inefficiencies in the network, we also appraise strategies to maximize diffusion of new technologies within developing regions and the potential to build bridges through new modes of cooperation. |
| Abstract: | Compte tenu de l'urgence du changement climatique, il existe une littérature de plus en plus importante sur le rôle des transferts de technologie et sur la façon dont les politiques peuvent favoriser la diffusion des technologies d'atténuation du climat. Un défi important est que le réseau de diffusion est généralement inconnu. Pour résoudre ce problème clé, nous proposons une méthode systémique s'appuyant sur la littérature d'inférence de réseau. Nous appliquons ensuite cette approche en utilisant des données sur les modèles de diffusion globale des technologies de l'énergie éolienne depuis les années 1980. Les résultats montrent que l'évolution du réseau a été remarquable, en cohérence avec la croissance colossale et les progrès technologiques dans l'énergie éolienne au cours des dernières décennies et le rôle de premier plan des entreprises européennes et d'autres économies avancées dans son développement. Dans le contexte de la politique climatique et compte tenu de la nature multipolaire et des inefficiences structurelles du réseau, nous évaluons également les stratégies visant à maximiser la diffusion des nouvelles technologies dans les régions en développement et la possibilité de construire des ponts grâce à de nouveaux modes de coopération. |
| Keywords: | Technology transfers,climate policy,diffusion networks,wind energy,énergie éolienne,politique climatique,réseaux de diffusion,Transferts de technologie |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01483963&r=ene |
| By: | Andreas Ziegler (Universität Kassel) |
| Abstract: | Based on data from a representative survey among more than 2200 households, this paper empirically examines the agreement to the German energy transition in total and to six single energy policy measures, which are components of this challenging national policy approach. Our micro-econometric analysis with uni- and multivariate binary and ordered probit models reveals that both economic calculus and personal and social values are relevant for this agreement. An expected future electricity price increase due to the energy transition (which especially incorporates the price expectations in the hypothetical case that the measures of the energy transition are withdrawn) is significantly negatively correlated with the agreement to the two core measures of the energy transition, namely the nuclear phase-out and the financial support of the expansion of renewable energies. While other economic variables like income and energy expenditures also have some significant effects, our estimation results especially reveal that political identification and other personal values are at least equally relevant. For example, an overall left-green orientation is significantly positively correlated with the agreement to the energy transition in total and especially to the aforementioned core measures of the energy transition, which are also significantly positively affected by strong environmental values. Our econometric analysis suggests that studies that only include economic variables or only include personal and social values in order to explain the acceptance of policy measures can lead to biased estimation results and thus distorted conclusions. For policy makers our study additionally identifies important skeptical population groups which might be addressed in order to increase the acceptance of climate and energy policy measures like the German energy transition. |
| Keywords: | Climate and energy policy measures, energy transition, energy cost expecta-tions, political identification, environmental values, uni- and multivariate binary and ordered probit models |
| JEL: | Q48 Q54 A13 C25 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:201716&r=ene |
| By: | Dominique Bureau (Ministère de l'environnement - Ministère de l'Environnement); Lionel Fontagné (PSE - Paris School of Economics, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique); Katheline Schubert (PSE - Paris School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Pour limiter les émissions mondiales de gaz à effet de serre, doit-on restreindre les échanges internationaux, comme le défendent les promoteurs des « circuits courts » ? Nous expliquons que ce n’est pas le libre-échange qui détruit le climat, mais le fait que celui-ci se développe en l’absence d’une tarification du carbone d’application suffisamment générale et au niveau adéquat. Pour réconcilier commerce international et climat, nous formulons des propositions visant à mieux faire travailler ensemble les différentes branches de régulation internationale afin d’assurer l’essor de la coopération climatique. |
| Keywords: | climat, commerce international, gaz à effet de serre, protectionnisme |
| Date: | 2017–01–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-01459600&r=ene |
| By: | Pereira, Alfredo; Pereira, Rui |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the environmental, economic and budgetary impacts of a carbon tax in the presence of mixed recycling strategies and a detailed modelling of labor market conditions, both employment and involuntary unemployment. This focus matches the terms of the policy debate in many small energy-importing economies. The revenue-recycling policies that appear most promising are those that use carbon tax revenue to finance investment tax credits, reductions in social security contributions, and reductions in personal income taxes. Although none of these mechanisms would individually lead to simultaneous improvements in the three margins, a mixture of the three would. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that labor markets conditions are a critical factor in determining the possibility of generating these positive effects. Ignoring labor supply responses, employment and unemployment effects leads to systematic underreporting of the three dividends and thereby undermines the political viability of environmental tax reform. |
| Keywords: | Carbon Taxation; Economic Effects; Budgetary Effects; Dividends; Optimal Recycling Mix; Dynamic General Equilibrium; Endogenous Growth; Endogenous Unemployment. |
| JEL: | D58 H62 O44 Q48 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:77630&r=ene |
| By: | Lukáš Rečka; Milan Ščasný |
| Abstract: | The Czech Republic, with a 28% of GDP represented by industry, belongs among the most industrialized countries in the EU (Eurostat, 20115). Although the air quality in the Czech Republic has significantly improved as a result of stricter air quality control during the transition period in 1990’s and the implementation of environmental acquis communitaire of the European Union in the following decade (Moldan & Hak, 2007), further airborne emission reduction is desirable (Ščasný et al.2009). In reality, however, since the end of 1990’s the rate of emission reduction has slowed down significantly (EEA, 2014). The aim of our paper is therefore to identify sectors with the highest economic potential for reduction of sulphurous emissions in the Czech Republic, measured through the shadow price of SO2 across the industry sectors. We also aim to compare the implicit price of SO2 emissions with the magnitude of damage caused by these emissions and with the current level of market-based instruments which should internalise these external costs.In this paper, we specifically follow the Mekaroonreung & Johnson study (2012) and apply Convex Nonparametric Least Squares quadratic optimization to analyse technical efficiency jointly with emission shadow price estimation. Then we apply the impact pathway analysis embedded in the ExternE method (Preiss et al. 2008) to quantify the environmental external costs attributable to SO2 emissions. Lastly, the shadow prices (i.e. the marginal abatement costs) are compared with corresponding external costs to draw policy-relevant conclusions.Our results support our hypothesis that the sectors with low production of SO2 emission might have higher shadow prices of SO2 than the sectors with a high volume of SO2. On average, the highest shadow price of SO2 – above 5,000€ per ton of SO2 – is estimated for ‘Textiles’, ‘Manufacture of non-metallic mineral products’, and ‘Manufacture of medical products’, while the lowest time-average of SO2 shadow prices are estimated for ‘Electrical machinery’ (478€) and ‘Sewage and refuse disposal’, ‘Fabricated metals products’, ‘Renting of machinery’, ‘Manufacture of basic metals’, and ‘Coal mining’, ranging from 613€ to 737€. In the remaining sectors, the estimated shadow price of SO2 varies between 850€ and 2,450€ per ton of SO2. In the Electricity, gas & hot water sector – which releases the highest volume of SO2 emission – the average shadow price during the period 2000 to 2008 is 1,480€, and the shadow price decreases from 2,113€ to 803€ in 2007 and then it increases to 1,117€ in 2008. These results correspond to the previous estimates we obtained by using ODF method (Rečka & Ščasný, 2011); the median and weighted average of shadow price of SO2 for coal and lignite power plants in the Czech Republic were estimated at 1,074€ and 1,548€, respectively. The average, weighted by industry GVA, shadow price of SO2 decreases over time, especially from 2004, starting at 2,527€ per ton of SO2 in 2000 and reaching its minimum at 708€ in 2007. In 2008, there is an increase to 1,172 € per ton of SO2 on average. Our results are in line with the technology specific marginal abatement cost (MAC) as estimated for the Czech Republic by other approaches; for instance, the MACs of ton SO2 derived from the GAINS database on the costs and technical potential of current and prospected abatement technologies (Ščasný et al. 2008) are in the range of 430 to 4,000 €, and the implicit MACs derived from the computable general equilibrium GEM-E3 model (Pye et al. 2008) are between 545 and 785 € per ton of SO2. We also found that the SO2 shadow prices are in almost all sectors smaller than the magnitude of the external cost associated with SO2 emissions, that is 7,235€ per each ton. The only three exceptions, ‘Textil, Mineral products’ and ‘Manufacture of Medical instrument’ sectors, for which in some years we record a higher shadow price for SO2 than the corresponding external cost. However these two sectors release only a negligible amount of SO2 emissions with very limited potential to reduce them. |
| Keywords: | The Czech Republic , Energy and environmental policy, Sectoral issues |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8523&r=ene |
| By: | Xiaoyang Li; Yue Maggie Zhou |
| Abstract: | We examine the role of firm strategy in the global combat against pollution. We find that U.S. plants release less toxic emissions when their parent firm imports more from low-wage countries (LWCs). Consistent with the Pollution Haven Hypothesis, goods imported by U.S. firms from LWCs are in more pollution-intensive industries; U.S. plants shift production to less pollution-intensive industries, produce less waste, and spend less on pollution abatement when their parent imports more from LWCs. The negative impact of LWC imports on emissions is stronger for U.S. plants located in counties with greater institutional pressure for environmental performance, but weaker for more-capable U.S. plants and firms. These results highlight the role of local institutions and firm capability in explaining firms’ choice of offshoring and environmental strategy. |
| Keywords: | environmental strategy, pollution haven, offshoring, institutional arbitrage, supply chain sustainability |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:16-09r&r=ene |
| By: | Gorkhmaz Imanov; G. Imanov; R. Yusifzada; A.Mansurov |
| Abstract: | Green Economy is one of the most important criteria of sustainable development of the country. UNEP defines green economy as “one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities. It is low carbon, resource efficient, and socially inclusive”. The concept of green economy has to replace brown economy as world economic development progresses. Decades of creating new wealth through the ‘brown economy’ model is based on fossil fuels having not substantiality addressed social marginalization environmental degradation and resource depletion. In addition to this, world is still far from delivering on the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. United Nation Department of Economic and Social Affairs, having analyzed over 80 publications on the green economy and green growth concepts, offers economic, social and ecological indicators to measure level of green economy development. Also, it is suggests to use Global Green Economy Index – GGEI and NASDAQ OMX Green Economy Benchmark Index (QGREEN) for to estimation of level of Green Economy. GGEI is estimated using following indicators: Clean energy technology, Sustainable forms tourism and Improved domestic environmental quality. QGREEN includes following – Energy efficiency, Clean fuels, Renewable energy generation, Natural resources, Water, Pollution mitigation and Advanced materials. The green economy will emerge in different forms in different regions, depending on local economic strengths and weaknesses. This paper proposes National Green Economy Index (NGEI) to define level of development of green economy in Azerbaijan. To meet this objective we use following eleven indicators: Ecological quality – ECQ, Renewable energy – REE, Protection land – PRL, Green tourism – TOR, Quality of life – QOL, Green GDP- EPP, Energy intensity - ENI, Organic agriculture – ORA, Worldwide governance index – WGI, International Innovation Index - III, Transport greenhouse gas emissions per capita - GHG. Research that has been undertaken, using fuzzy logic methods, on the National Green Economy Development Index for Azerbaijan, shows, that very low value of this index is primarily influenced by the very low level of renewable energy use, low levels of protected land, green tourism and ecological quality in Azerbaijan. Problem of distribution between sectors of Green Economy has to be researched in order to improve this situation in the future. |
| Keywords: | In order to achieve this, we have used data available from Azerbaijan and international organizations (UNEP, OECD). In order to solve problem of the National Green Economy Index (NGEI) estimation we have applied fuzzy set and fuzzy logic theory., Energy and environmental policy, Modeling: new developments |
| Date: | 2015–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ekd:008007:8725&r=ene |
| By: | Andreas Karpf (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Antoine Mandel (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics); Stefano Battiston (Department of Banking and Finance - UZH - University of Zürich [Zürich]) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an analysis of the European Emission Trading System as a transaction network. It is shown that, given the lack of a centralized market place, industrial actors had to resort to local connections and financial intermediaries to participate in the market. This gave rise to a hierarchical structure in the transaction network. To empirically relate networks statistics to market outcomes a PLS-PM modeling technique is introduced. It is shown that the asymmetries in the network induced market inefficiencies (e.g. increased bid-ask spread). Albeit the efficiency of the market has improved from the beginning of Phase II, the asymmetry persists, imposing unnecessary additional costs on agents and reducing the effectiveness of the market as a mitigation instrument. |
| Abstract: | Cet article présente une analyse du système européen de négociation d'émissions comme un réseau de transactions. Il est démontré que, compte tenu de l'absence d'un marché centralisé, les acteurs industriels ont dû recourir à des structures locales des intermédiaires financiers pour participer au marché. Cela a donné lieu à une structure hiérarchique dans le réseau de transactions. Pour relier de manière empirique les statistiques de réseaux aux résultats du marché, une technique de modélisation PLS-PM est introduite. Il est démontré que les asymétries du réseau induisent des inefficiences du marché (bid-ask spread). Bien que l'efficacité du marché se soit améliorée depuis le début de la Phase II, l'asymétrie persiste, imposant des coûts supplémentaires inutiles aux agents et réduisant l'efficacité du marché en tant qu'instrument d'atténuation. |
| Keywords: | Carbon market,network,climate economics,réseaux,Marché du carbone,économie du climat |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01484117&r=ene |