nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2017‒02‒12
forty-two papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. The Rebound Effect in Swedish Heavy Industry By Amjadi, Golnaz; Lundgren, Tommy; Persson, Lars; Zhang, Shanshan
  2. Morocco’s Green Energy Opportunity By Laura El-Katiri
  3. Do they still matter? – Impact of Fossil Fuels on Electricity Prices in the Light of Increased Renewable Generation By Lips, Johannes
  4. The Merit Order Effect of Czech Photovoltaic Plants By Petra Lunackova; Karel Janda; Jan Prusa
  5. Power to the people: Electricity demand and household behavior By Vesterberg, Mattias
  6. Do Energy Efficiency Investments Deliver at the Right Time? By Judson P. Boomhower; Lucas W. Davis
  7. Do electricity prices matter? Plant-level evidence from German manufacturing By Gerster, Andreas
  8. Energy Tariff Reform in Ukraine: Estimated Effects and Policy Options By Vasily Astrov; Leon Podkaminer
  9. Estimating the Impact of Central Winter Heating on Air Quality in China By Wang, Meijuan
  10. U.S. Energy Price Volatility Spillover in Global Corn Markets By Regmi, Madhav; Featherstone, Allen M.
  11. Tender Frequency and Market Concentration in Balancing Power Markets By Knaut, Andreas; Obermüller, Frank; Weiser, Florian
  12. The Outlook for U.S. Production of Shale Oil: Working Paper 2016-01 By Mark Lasky
  13. On the relationship between GHGs and Global Temperature Anomalies: Multi-level rolling analysis and Copula calibration By Elettra Agliardi; Thomas Alexopoulos; Christian Cech
  14. Bargaining over Natural Resources: Governments between Environmental Organizations and Extraction Firms By Schopf, Mark; Voss, Achim
  15. Green tax reform, endogenous innovation and the growth dividend By Christos Karydas; Lin Zhang
  16. A new approach to an age-old problem: solving externalities by incenting workers directly By Greer Gosnell; John List; Robert Metcalfe
  17. A note on the identification and transmission of energy demand and supply shocks By Michelle, Gilmartin
  18. The Social Contract in the MENA Region and the Energy Sector Reforms By Sara Brzuszkiewicz
  19. Kicking a Crude Habit: Diversifying Away from Oil and Gas in the 21st Century By Cullen S. Hendrix
  20. WTI Crude Oil Option-Implied VaR and CVaR: An Empirical Application By Giovanni Barone-Adesi; Chiara Legnazzi; Carlo Sala
  21. Conditions for effective risk sharing against marine pollution: the case of the Ría de Vigo By Grossmann, Schimon; Faure, Michael
  22. A Review on Sustainable Building (Green Building) By Neyestani, Behnam
  23. Consumer inattention, heuristic thinking and the role of energy labels By Andor, Mark; Gerster, Andreas; Sommer, Stephan
  24. Against the Wind: China's Struggle to Integrate Wind Energy into Its National Grid By Long Lam; Lee Branstetter; Ines M. L. Azevedo
  25. The effect of price on electricity contract choice By Vesterberg, Mattias
  26. Heterogeneity in price responsiveness of electricity: Contract choice and the role of media coverage By Vesterberg, Mattias
  27. Shall I Open the Window? An Experiment on Effort and Habits in Thermal-Comfort Adjustment Practices By Galassi, Veronica; Madlener, Reinhard
  28. A Pathway toward Reducing CO2 Emissions from the Industrial Sector By Psarras, Peter C.; Bains, Praveen; Charoensawadpong, Panunya; Carrington, Mark; Comello, Stephen; Reichelstein, Stefan; Wilcox, Jennifer
  29. The RES-induced Switching Effect Across Fossil Fuels: An Analysis of the Italian Day-Ahead and Balancing Prices and Their Connected Costs By Angelica, Gianfreda; Lucia, Parisio; Matteo, Pelagatti;
  30. Natural resources’ impact on government revenues By Justine Knebelmann
  31. Informed Trading in Oil-Futures Market By Olivier Rousse; Benoît Sévi
  32. Oil and Civil Conflict: On and Off (Shore) By Jørgen Juel Andersen; Frode Martin Nordvik; Andrea Tesei
  33. Model of estimation of the probability of bankruptcy in the oil and gas industry By Elena Tkach; Yuliya Khanafiyeva; Chekushina Irina
  34. Linking Emissions Trading Schemes in the Presence of Research and Develoment Spillovers By Nachtigall, Daniel
  35. Local Climate Sensitivity: A Statistical Approach for a Spatially Heterogeneous Planet By J. Isaac Miller
  36. The budget of Russia in the conditions of economic uncertainty: new approaches to planning By Marina Solodovnikova
  37. Clean up your own mess: An experimental study of moral responsibility and efficiency By Jakob, Michael; Kübler, Dorothea; Steckel, Jan Christoph; van Velduizen, Roel
  38. Nudging à la carte – A field experiment on food choice By Gravert, Christina; Kurz, Verena
  39. Revisiting Minimum Profit Conditions in Uniform Price Day-Ahead Electricity Auctions By MADANI, Mehdi; VAN VYVE, Mathieu
  40. Le emissioni di CO2 delle auto elettriche e delle auto con motore a combustione interna. Un confronto per l’Italia tramite l’analisi del ciclo di vita By Danielis, Romeo
  41. Ways to improve risk management at the enterprises of the energy sector By Elena Tkach; Grigoriy Khavanskiy
  42. Hyperbolic Discounting of the Far-Distant Future By Nina Anchugina; Matthew Ryan; Arkadii Slinko

  1. By: Amjadi, Golnaz (CERE and the Department of Economics, Umeå University); Lundgren, Tommy (CERE and the Department of Economics, Umeå University); Persson, Lars (CERE and the Department of Economics, Umeå University); Zhang, Shanshan (CERE and the Department of Forest Economics, SLU)
    Abstract: Energy efficiency improvement (EEI) benefits the climate and matters for energy security. The potential emission and energy savings due to EEI may however not fully materialize due to the rebound effect. In this study, we measure the size of rebound effect for the two energy types fuel and electricity within the four most energy intensive sectors in Sweden – pulp and paper, basic iron and steel, chemical, and mining. We use a detailed firm-level panel data set for the period 2000-2008 and apply Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) for measuring the rebound effect. We find that both fuel and electricity rebound effects do not fully offset the potential for energy and emission savings. Furthermore, we find 2 CO intensity and fuel and electricity share as the two main determinants of rebound effect in Swedish heavy industry. Our results seems to imply that it matters both to what extent and where to promote EEI, as the rebound effect varies between sectors as well as between firms within sectors.
    Keywords: Energy efficiency improvement; Rebound effect; Stochastic Frontier Analysis
    JEL: D22 Q40
    Date: 2017–01–31
  2. By: Laura El-Katiri
    Abstract: Morocco’s energy landscape has been changing rapidly over the past decades. Population growth, industrialisation and rising living standards that have been accompanied by rising access rates to electricity as well as high rates of rural-urban migration have all contributed to Morocco’s growing energy needs. Neighbouring oil and gas-rich Algeria in the east and energy-hungry Europe in the North across the Mediterranean Sea, Morocco has historically traded agricultural products but imported virtually all of its primary energy resources in the absence of significant own oil and gas reserves.
    Date: 2016–12
  3. By: Lips, Johannes
    Abstract: During the last years, the German energy sector and especially its electricity market was affected by a major energy transition, the so called „Energiewende“. This transition led to an increase of electricity production from renewable sources and thereby affected the whole electricity market. Therefore, it provides lessons for countries, which are only beginning a similar transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. The aim of this analysis is to assess if there still exists a relationship between fossil fuel and electricity prices. Due to possible structural breaks in the time series a minimum Lagrange Multiplier (LM) stationarity test is applied, which endogenously determines possible structural breaks. Subsequently a bootstrap approach is used to estimate con- fidence intervals (C.I.s) for the test statistic and the possible break dates. Furthermore, the stability of the cointegration vector is assessed with the test by Hansen and Jo- hansen (1999). The results indicate that the cointegration relationship is not stable over time. To incorporate these findings, the cointegration analysis is based on Johansen et al. (2000), which allows structural breaks in the deterministic part of the cointegra- tion relation. These results supports the assumption that the energy transition affected the relationship between fossil fuels and electricity prices, although there still exists a relatively strong cointegration relation between fossil fuel and electricity prices in the long run.
    JEL: C58 Q40 Q41
    Date: 2016
  4. By: Petra Lunackova (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic); Karel Janda (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic; Department of Banking and Insurance, Faculty of Finance and Accounting, University of Economics, Namesti Winstona Churchilla 4, 13067 Prague, Czech Republic); Jan Prusa (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: We assess the impact of photovoltaic power plants on the electricity supply curve in the Czech Republic. The merit order effect is estimated as the elasticity of electricity spot price with respect to change in supply of electricity from renewable sources. Data for the Czech electricity spot market from 2010 to 2015 are analyzed as this is the period with the steepest increase in a renewable generation capacity. The effect is estimated separately for solar and other renewable sources. We find a significant difference between these two groups. Our results show that based on hourly, daily and weekly data energy produced by Czech solar power plants does not decrease electricity spot price, creating double cost to the end consumer. However, the merit Order effect based on averaged daily and weekly data is shown to exist for other renewable sources excluding solar (mainly water and wind). This contributes to the conclusion that the Czech renewables policy that prefers solar to other renewable sources may be considered as suboptimal.
    Keywords: energy subsidies; photovoltaic; renewables; merit order effect
    JEL: Q42 H23 M21
    Date: 2017–01
  5. By: Vesterberg, Mattias (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
    Abstract: Paper [I] Using a unique and highly detailed data set on energy consumption at the appliance-level for 200 Swedish households, seemingly unrelated regression (SUR)-based end-use specific load curves are estimated. The estimated load curves are then used to explore possible restrictions on load shifting (e.g. the office hours schedule) as well as the cost implications of different load shift patterns. The cost implications of shifting load from "expensive" to "cheap" hours, using the Nord Pool spot prices as a proxy for a dynamic price, are computed to be very small; roughly 2-4% reduction in total daily costs from shifting load up to five hours ahead, indicating small incentives for households (and retailers) to adopt dynamic pricing of electricity. Paper [II] Using a detailed data set on appliance-level electricity consumption at the hourly level, we provide the first estimates of hourly and end-use-specific income elasticities for electricity. Such estimates are informative about how consumption patterns in general, and peak demand in particular, will develop as households’ income changes. We find that the income elasticities are highest during peak hours for kitchen and lighting, with point estimates of roughly 0.4, but insignificant for space heating. Paper [III] In this paper, I estimate the price elasticity of electricity as a function of the choice between fixed-price and variable-price contracts. Further, assuming that households have imperfect information about electricity prices and usage, I explore how media coverage of electricity prices affects electricity demand, both by augmenting price responsiveness and as a direct effect of media coverage on electricity demand, independent of prices. I also address the endogeneity of the choice of electricity contract. The parameters in the model are estimated using unique and detailed Swedish panel data on monthly household-level electricity consumption. I find that price elasticities range between -0.025 and -0.07 at the mean level of media coverage, depending on contract choice, and that households with monthly variation in electricity prices respond more to prices when there is extensive media coverage of electricity prices. When media coverage is high, for example 840 news articles per month (which corresponds to the mean plus two standard deviations), the price elasticity is -0.12, or 1.7 times the elasticity at the mean media coverage. Similarly, media coverage is also found to have a direct effect on electricity demand. Paper [IV] I explore how households switch between fixed-price and variable-price electricity contracts in response to variations in price and temperature, conditional on previous contract choice. Using panel data with roughly 54000 Swedish households, a dynamic probit model is estimated. The results suggest that the choice of contract exhibits substantial state dependence, with an estimated marginal effect of previous contract choice of 0.96, and that the effect of variation in prices and temperature on the choice of electricity contract is small. Further, the state dependence and price responsiveness are similar across housing types, income levels and other dimensions. A plausible explanation of these results is that transaction costs are larger than the relatively small cost savings from switching between contracts.
    Keywords: electricity demand; real-time pricing; demand flexibility; appliance-level data; end-use; media; contract choice; deregulated market; household behavior; information
    JEL: C30 D10 D12 D83 Q26 Q41 Q48
    Date: 2017–02–01
  6. By: Judson P. Boomhower; Lucas W. Davis
    Abstract: Electricity cannot be cost-effectively stored even for short periods of time. Consequently, wholesale electricity prices vary widely across hours of the day with peak prices frequently exceeding off-peak prices by a factor of ten or more. Most analyses of energy-efficiency policies ignore this variation, focusing on total energy savings without regard to when those savings occur. In this paper we demonstrate the importance of this distinction using novel evidence from a rebate program for air conditioners in Southern California. We estimate electricity savings using hourly smart-meter data and show that savings tend to occur during hours when the value of electricity is high. This significantly increases the overall value of the program, especially once we account for the large capacity payments received by generators to guarantee their availability in high-demand hours. We then compare this estimated savings profile with engineering-based estimates for this program as well as a variety of alternative energy-efficiency investments. The results illustrate a surprisingly large amount of variation in economic value across investments.
    JEL: D40 Q41
    Date: 2017–01
  7. By: Gerster, Andreas
    Abstract: In many countries, the transition process towards a low-carbon economy has been associated with increasing electricity prices. Microeconometric evaluations of the causal impact of electricity price changes on plant-level outcomes are rare, though. By exploiting local randomization induced by thresholds in exemption rules, we estimate the local average treatment effects of electricity levy exemptions using a fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) design. The results indicate that exempted German manufacturing plants increase electricity use substantially and substitute it for fossil fuels, while we do not find evidence for short-run effects on gross output, exports and employment.
    Keywords: environmental taxation,electricity prices,manufacturing,regression discontinuity design
    JEL: D22 H23 L60 Q41 Q48
    Date: 2017
  8. By: Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Leon Podkaminer (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw)
    Abstract: Energy sector reforms have for a long time been viewed as one of the most important challenges facing Ukraine. The most visible manifestation of reforms so far has been the steep hikes in energy tariffs for households to ‘market’ levels, above all for natural gas and central heating. The magnitude of gas tariff hikes in Ukraine and the short time span over which they have been implemented have been unprecedented they rose nearly ten times within less than two and a half years. Partly due to this, between 2013 and 2015 residential gas consumption in Ukraine declined by about one third and will probably fall by another 9% in 2016 according to our estimations, essentially meaning sacrifice of households’ living standards. Because of the higher energy payments, private consumption of other (non-energy) items has suffered as well. This is a disturbing development the suppressed demand for non-energy consumer goods represents a clear social loss in an economy which has been suffering from a persistent inadequacy of aggregate demand. At the same time, our analysis demonstrates that the magnitude of gas tariff hikes implemented in Ukraine has been clearly excessive when viewed from the production (cost) side. Under plausible assumptions regarding the dynamics of domestic gas production, residential consumption and gas import prices in the years to come, we come to the conclusion that the state-owned gas monopolist Naftogaz (and, via higher tax revenues, the government at large) will be accruing rents to the tune of at least 2% of GDP – essentially at the expense of the population. The source of this rent is the fact that the wholesale price for largely domestically produced gas has been set now on par with imported gas, which – after the recent sharp reduction in gas demand – is now needed only in limited quantities to cover the households’ needs. To amend the situation in the short run, the government should either extend the scope of energy subsidies to poor households or, even better, roll back the energy tariffs. The latter task should be relatively easy to accomplish as long as Naftogaz remains state-owned. In the longer run, various measures may be contemplated to improve energy efficiency in the household sector. In this vein, the government may consider extending the scope of subsidies, e.g. by providing lower interest rates and a higher reimbursement rate for energy-efficient loans, especially for the purpose of installation of heating meters in residential buildings. Government subsidies along these lines would be crucial in solving the long-term structural problem of excessive energy consumption, and should enjoy priority over the short-term task of fiscal consolidation.
    Keywords: energy demand, energy prices, Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS)
    JEL: D12 Q4
    Date: 2017–02
  9. By: Wang, Meijuan
    Abstract: We use a difference in difference model to examine the impact of central winter heating on air pollution in China. The estimation includes how does the winter heating affect (i) air quality, and (ii) hazard level of pollutants. Our data are daily Air Quality Index (AQI) records in mid-November when the heat is turned on and mid-March when heat is turned off in over 150 cities. Both Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Ordered Logit model show that winter heating contributes significantly to air pollution, especially in the period when central heating is switched on. The central heating causes 51.3% higher AQI, and the air is 13% more likely to be hazardous to the sensitive group (hazard level=3). Northern cities are more polluted than southern ones. It is also found that air quality in cities with higher GDP per capita is better; population, number of cars and electricity used by industry also contribute to air pollution.
    Keywords: Air pollution, winter heating, Huai-River policy, urban development, Environmental Economics and Policy, Public Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q53, Q58, R1,
    Date: 2016
  10. By: Regmi, Madhav; Featherstone, Allen M.
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of energy price shocks within the U.S. to the corn market prices both in the U.S. and in the world. It allows for structural breaks and identifies the price volatility in the corn markets before and after energy policy changes within the U.S. in 2005 and 2007. In particular, this paper develops structural VAR model and a structural VECM model respectively for the series before and after policy change. Results indicate that there is a substantial difference in the dynamic response of corn prices to an ethanol price shock after the policy change. Findings also suggest that an ethanol price shock is more important and persistent than a gasoline price shock while explaining the corn price volatility in corn markets.
    Keywords: SVAR, SVECM, Energy Policy, Energy Price, Corn Price, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2017–02–06
  11. By: Knaut, Andreas (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)); Obermüller, Frank (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI)); Weiser, Florian (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI))
    Abstract: Balancing power markets ensure the short-term balance of supply and demand in electricity markets and their importance may increase with a higher share of fluctuating renewable electricity production. While it is clear that shorter tender frequencies, e.g. daily or hourly, are able to increase the efficiency compared to a weekly procurement, it remains unclear in which respect market concentration will be affected. Against this background, we develop a numerical electricity market model to quantify the possible effects of shorter tender frequencies on costs and market concentration. We find that shorter time spans of procurement are able to lower the costs by up to 15%. While market concentration decreases in many markets, we – surprisingly – identify cases in which shorter time spans lead to higher concentration.
    Keywords: Balancing Power; Market Design; Market Concentration; Tender Frequency; Provision Duration; Mixed Integer Programming
    JEL: D47 L94
    Date: 2017–01–31
  12. By: Mark Lasky
    Abstract: This paper describes an approach to modeling U.S. production of energy from shale resources and the outlook for that production. Production is insensitive to the price of oil in the short run but quite responsive within two to three years.
    JEL: L70 L71 O49 Q40 Q58
    Date: 2016–05–18
  13. By: Elettra Agliardi (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy); Thomas Alexopoulos (Department of Economics, University of Peloponnese, Greece; Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy); Christian Cech (University of Applied Sciences BFI, Austria)
    Abstract: The relationship between GHG emissions and global warming is studied through multi-level rolling analysis to assess whether or not there are increasing rates in global change as a result of higher levels of anthropogenic emissions, as we move forward in time. Furthermore, in order to assess whether we observe tail-dependence, representing simultaneous occurrence of extreme events, we employ copula methods. Our main findings do not support views of increasing rates in global climate change as a result of higher levels of emissions. On the contrary, they suggest a constant or even a decreasing effect of emissions on temperature anomalies especially from 2005 onward. At the same time, our copula calibration shows that the Frank copula achieves the best fit. Since the Frank copula is a copula that assigns a low probability to joint extreme events, our analysis does not show tail dependence.
    Keywords: GHGs, Global temperature anomalies, Rolling analysis, Copulas
    JEL: Q54 Q51 C53 C69
    Date: 2017–02
  14. By: Schopf, Mark; Voss, Achim
    Abstract: In this article, we propose a sequential Nash bargaining solution and apply it to a dynamic bargaining game on exhaustible-resource extraction. The government and two agents bargain via the asymmetric Nash bargaining solution. Should the trilateral negotiation fail, the government chooses one agent for a bilateral negotiation. In this negotiation, the disagreement point is to bargain with the other agent. Finally, should this second bilateral negotiation break down, the government chooses the welfare maximizing policy. In our dynamic bargaining game, the environmental organization is willing to pay for less extraction, because of stock-pollution effects, while the extraction firm is willing to pay for extraction per se. The government dislikes extraction, because of flow-pollution effects, but is willing to accept some if it is paid for it. It turns out that the disagreement point in the trilateral negotiation is always to bargain with the environmental organization. This is because there is no conflict of interest between the government and the environmental organization concerning extraction. However, as long as stock pollution is still low, it might be optimal for the environmental organization to let this bilateral negotiation break down. We demonstrate how these considerations shape the payments in case of agreement and disagreement, in total and over time.
    JEL: C71 D72 Q58
    Date: 2016
  15. By: Christos Karydas (ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Lin Zhang (City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)
    Abstract: We study theoretically and numerically the effects of an environmental tax reform using endogenous growth theory. In the theoretical part, mobile labor between manufacturing and R&D activities, and elasticity of substitution between labor and energy in manufacturing lower than unity allow for a growth dividend, even if we consider preexisting tax distortions. The scope for innovation is reduced when we consider direct financial investment in the lab, or elastic labor supply. We then apply the core theoretical model to a real growing economy and find that a boost in economic growth following such a carbon policy is a possible outcome. Lump-sum redistribution performs best in terms of effciency measured by aggregate welfare, while in terms of equity among social segments its progressive character fails when we consider very high emissions reduction targets.
    Keywords: Climate Policy, Green Tax Reform, Induced Innovation, Endogenous Growth, Numerical Modelling
    JEL: C63 E62 O44 Q43 Q48
    Date: 2017–01
  16. By: Greer Gosnell; John List; Robert Metcalfe
    Abstract: Understanding motivations in the workplace remains of utmost import as economies around the world rely on increases in labor productivity to foster sustainable economic growth. The authors of this paper created a unique opportunity in partnering with Virgin Atlantic Airways to test a role for the monitoring, performance information, personal targets and prosocial incentives on fuel efficiency of their captains. Monitoring and targets were found to induce captains to improve efficiency in all three key flight areas: pre-flight, in-flight and post-flight. The study provided the lowest calculated marginal abatement cost per ton of CO2, at negative $250 (i.e. $250 savings per ton abated). Methodologically, the authors’ approach has implications for climate policy and suggests a new way to combat firm-level externalities: by targeting workers rather than the firm as a whole.
    Date: 2017–01
  17. By: Michelle, Gilmartin
    Abstract: This paper proposes and implements a novel structural VAR approach for identifying oil demand and supply shocks. In this approach we search for two shocks in the context of a VAR model, which explain the majority of the k-step ahead prediction error variances of oil prices. Finally, we compare our approach with alternative identification schemes based on sign restrictions, and we show that the proposed methods is a useful tool for decomposing oil shocks.
    Keywords: oil price shocks; demand and supply; Bayesian VAR; MCMC
    JEL: B4 E32 N10 Q43
    Date: 2016–01–09
  18. By: Sara Brzuszkiewicz (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei)
    Abstract: During the last few years and because of the low oil prices in particular, the increasing awareness of the unsustainability of subsidized systems led several MENA countries to take steps to lower subsidies, which have been part of the social contract for decades, especially as far as the energy sector is concerned. Nowadays, the need for reforms is compelling for more than one reason. Namely, the subsidized system distorts market trends, fosters inefficient use of resources, depresses foreign direct investment and fuels overconsumption, which is no longer sustainable, particularly as far as the population growth in most of the MENA countries is concerned. In this paper both the resource-abundant countries and the energy importing nations will be analyzed, in order to investigate similarities and differences between the two and to carry out an initial assessment of the reforms in two representative countries, namely Saudi Arabia, exporting country par excellence, and Egypt, which imports energy.
    Keywords: Energy Sector, Subsidies, Subsidy Reforms, MENA Region, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Rentier State, Resource Curse Theories
    JEL: O1 O13
    Date: 2017–01
  19. By: Cullen S. Hendrix (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the correlates of diversification away from oil and natural gas dependence in the context of the 21st century resource boom (and bust). In a sample of 40 oil- and gas-dependent economies, the majority showed significant sectoral diversification of GDP, but exports remained highly concentrated in fuel exports. Regression analysis indicates that countries that began the boom with higher levels of oil and gas dependence, poorer countries, and those with significantly larger- or smaller-than-average populations were more successful in diversifying their GDP during the commodities boom. Governance clearly matters--more effective, capable bureaucratic structures are associated with greater GDP diversification away from oil and gas--though the effects are not uniformly positive. For any given level of government effectiveness, stronger rule of law is associated with less GDP diversification. Education appears to affect GDP and export diversification differentially. Consistent with endogenous growth theory, countries with more educated populations saw greater growth in their nonresource sectors than countries with less educated populations, though education is associated with greater export concentration. Market proximity does not affect diversification. Internal economic diversification in the 21st century has been less a matter of correct policy formation and implementation and more a matter of factors that shape the policymaking environment, with the findings suggesting a difficult road to economic diversification for the Gulf Cooperation Council economies.
    Keywords: petroleum, diversification, education, rule of law, institutions, Gulf Cooperation Council
    JEL: E02 O10 O13 Q02 Q40
    Date: 2017–02
  20. By: Giovanni Barone-Adesi (Swiss Finance Institute); Chiara Legnazzi (Swiss Finance Institute); Carlo Sala (ESADE Business School)
    Abstract: The forward-looking structure of option market prices provides a natural model-free way to extract different risk measures. We extract the 2014-2015 daily option implied VaR and CVaR from the WTI crude oil future prices and the options written on it. Without relying neither on numerical simulations nor on distributional assumptions, we propose a forward-looking risk measure that is both coherent and backtestable. Working naturally at longer-than-usual time horizons, the risk that the risk could change is no longer an issue. From a forecasting viewpoint, the ratio of the two risk measures allows to predict the probability density of jumps in the underlying price, which would have been otherwise unpredictable a priori with standard inference models.
    Keywords: Option Prices, Risk Measures, VaR and CVaR, Elicitability
    JEL: G13 G17
  21. By: Grossmann, Schimon (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Faure, Michael (METRO, Faculty of Law, Maastricht University)
    Abstract: The question of how effective protection against environmental impairment can be provided has spawned much literature. One instrument that is often invoked to provide compensation for environmental damage is insurance. Traditionally, a distinction is made between first and third party insurance. First party insurance may be acquired by potential victims of marine pollution, such as fisheries seriously harmed by ship-source oil spills. Conversely, third party insurance is sought by polluters to cover their legal responsibility and, at the same time, protect the potential victims from polluters unable to meet their financial obligations.
    Keywords: Risk sharing; marine pollution
    JEL: Q50 Q53
    Date: 2017–01–31
  22. By: Neyestani, Behnam
    Abstract: scientific studies reported that different industries have huge roles to generate this condition. Specially, the construction industry has the most responsibility about these challenges on the earth. Doubtlessly, the utilization of inappropriate technologies, appliances, and materials in buildings have threatened the environment and human health today. So, there is a significant question, what is the appropriate way to solve these problems in construction industry? The engineers and technologists have realized the environmental problems are from using some technologies and materials in construction industry since over the past few decades. Scientists suggested the best way to overcome the aforementioned threats is to consider “sustainable” or “green” design for buildings. So, the main intention of sustainable building is to shift from harm to harmless technologies and materials in buildings. Thus, one of the main purposes of this study is to explore generally regarding sustainable technologies, standards, and materials, which help the buildings reduce consuming energy and resources, in order to generate the positive influences on people, nature, and society. Accordingly, “sustainable” buildings can be more friendly with environment and human, and use key resources, such as, energy, water, and materials more optimal than the conventional buildings. Furthermore, the study was to address the benefits of developing sustainability in buildings on different perspectives, based on the review and points out future directions of study.
    Keywords: Sustainability, Sustainable (Green) Building, Green Technologies/Materials, and LEED.
    JEL: Q01 Q5 Q56
    Date: 2017–01–30
  23. By: Andor, Mark; Gerster, Andreas; Sommer, Stephan
    Abstract: Energy labels have been introduced in many countries to increase consumers' attention to energy use in purchase decisions of durables. In a discrete-choice experiment among about 5,000 households, we implement randomized information treatments to explore how energy labels influence purchasing decisions. Our results show that adding annual operating cost information to the EU energy label promotes the choice of energy-efficient durables. In addition, we find that a majority of participants value efficiency classes beyond the economic value of the underlying energy use differences. Our results further indicate that displaying operating cost affects choices through two distinct channels: it increases the attention to operating cost and reduces the valuation of efficiency class differences.
    Keywords: environmental certification,discrete choice experiment,energy efficiency,energy-using durables
    JEL: D03 D12 D83 Q48 Q50
    Date: 2017
  24. By: Long Lam (Carnegie Mellon University); Lee Branstetter (Peterson Institute for International Economics); Ines M. L. Azevedo (Carnegie Mellon University)
    Abstract: China launched an unprecedented wind farm construction boom a decade ago to expand renewable energy’s share of its primary energy by exploiting its considerable wind energy resources. On the surface these efforts appeared to yield great success, with China’s wind generating capacity growing more than 100-fold in less than 10 years. But close examination of its aggressive top-down approach to the promotion of renewable energy reveals that China has fallen far short of its ambitious goals. Turbines were quickly installed—but many of them were not connected to the power grid. After some turbines were connected, the state-owned enterprises that operate the national grid often refused to accept energy from them. These problems led to inefficiencies that are without precedent in the Western world. The authors find that although its installed wind energy capacity is 75 percent larger than that of the United States, China produces 14 percent less wind energy than the United States. Even in a political system with a strong centralized government, China’s push for renewable power faltered in the face of entrenched interests, weak incentives, and conflicting policy priorities.
    Date: 2017–01
  25. By: Vesterberg, Mattias (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
    Abstract: I explore how households switch between fixed-price and variable-price electricity contracts in response to variations in price and temperature, conditional on previous contract choice. Using panel data with roughly 54000 Swedish households, a dynamic probit model is estimated. The results suggest that the choice of contract exhibits substantial state dependence, with an estimated marginal effect of previous contract choice of 0:96, and that the short-run effects of variation in prices and temperature on the choice of electricity contract are small. Further, the state dependence and price responsiveness are similar across housing types, income levels and other dimensions. A plausible explanation of these results is that transaction costs are perceived to be larger than the relatively small cost savings from switching between contracts.
    Keywords: Electricity demand; electricity contract choice; demand flexibility
    JEL: D10 D12 Q41 Q48
    Date: 2017–01–22
  26. By: Vesterberg, Mattias (Department of Economics, Umeå University)
    Abstract: In this paper, I estimate the price elasticity of electricity as a function of contract choice. Further, I explore how the media coverage of electricity prices affects electricity demand, both by augmenting price responsiveness and as a direct effect of media coverage on electricity demand, independent of prices. The parameters in the model are estimated using a unique and detailed Swedish panel data on monthly household-level electricity consumption. I find that price elasticities range between -0.025 and -0.07 at the mean level of media coverage, depending on contract choice, and that households with monthly variation in electricity prices respond more to prices when media coverage of electricity prices is extensive. When media coverage is high, for example 840 news articles per month (which corresponds to the mean plus two standard deviations), the price elasticity is -0.12, or 1.7 times the elasticity at the mean media coverage. Similarly, media coverage is also found to have a direct effect on electricity demand.
    Keywords: Electricity tariff; Electricity demand; Price elasticity; Information; Media
    JEL: D12 D83 Q41
    Date: 2017–01–25
  27. By: Galassi, Veronica (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))
    Abstract: Energy retrofits of residential dwellings, ceteris paribus, result in a new socio-technical system characterized by higher room temperatures. In the new environment, individuals might change their type of interaction with the building and exert a certain level of effort to adapt to the new comfort situation depending on their previous practices. In this paper, by means of a Discrete Choice Experiment conducted among 3,161 tenants and owner-occupiers in Germany, we investigate preferences for practices implemented to adjust thermal comfort in retrofitted buildings, thus attempting to reconcile rational choice with social practice theories. We focus on effort and habits but our models also account for the type of control over the room temperature, adjustment time, and clothing. Our results show that in the presence of an obstruction, like potted plants or other decorative paraphernalia, in the proximity of the interaction point with the system, respondents dislike exerting effort to fully open the window but would still make the effort to switch off the heating system. Moreover, respondents with more environmentally-friendly heating and ventilation habits particularly dislike tilting the windows rather than opening them wide; however, after the retrofit they tend to prefer wearing lighter clothes at home. By quantitatively measuring the impact of each factor in the decision-making process, we contribute to the ongoing rebound debate in the energy economics and social psychology literature alike.
    Keywords: Social practice theory; Generalized mixed logit; Discrete choice experiment; Energy efficiency; Thermal comfort; Germany
    JEL: C25 C90 D12 Q40 R20
    Date: 2016–12
  28. By: Psarras, Peter C. (Stanford University); Bains, Praveen (Stanford University); Charoensawadpong, Panunya (Stanford University); Carrington, Mark (Stanford University); Comello, Stephen (Stanford University); Reichelstein, Stefan (Stanford University); Wilcox, Jennifer (CO School of Mines)
    Abstract: It is well documented that a concerted effort is required to reduce the threat of climate change. One vital component in this portfolio of solutions--carbon capture and utilization--has been stalled by significant economic and technical barriers. To overcome these obstacles, it is necessary to identify economically viable capture opportunities--targets that can serve as a driver to lower life cycle costs, increase commercialization efforts and provide an impetus for development in the utilization arena. This study presents a methodology for assessing the levelized cost of CO2 capture, compression, and transport from industrially-sourced capture to regional utilization (sink) opportunities. Industrial sources are targeted over coal and gas-fired power plants given industrial sources often have exhausts with higher CO2 purity, a factor that lends to a lower minimum work of separation and, hence, lower cost of capture. The greater concentration in CO2 results from combination of process emissions with those associated with stationary combustion. These industrial sources, together with a full inventory of geo-referenced utilization opportunities, serve as inputs to a robust cost model that accommodates for differences in source exhaust composition, flow rate, and source-sink geographical relationships. A case-study conducted for the US state of Pennsylvania yields a cost-based ranking of 47 industrial sites, whereby steel and cement manufacturing dominated the least levelized cost options, anchored by high CO2 exhaust content (14 - 33% CO2). Further, we find truck transport is cost-competitive with pipeline for small volumes (
    Date: 2017–01
  29. By: Angelica, Gianfreda; Lucia, Parisio; Matteo, Pelagatti;
    Abstract: The massive introduction of RES in electricity markets has influenced the long-run dynamics of electricity prices and their interactions with conventional thermal production sources. Taking into account the Northern Italian zone characterized by a high solar PV and hydro penetration, we firstly provide empirical evidence on the fuels-electricity nexus across two samples characterized by low (2006-08) and high (2013-15) RES levels, both in the dayahead and balancing markets. Then, we estimate the costs for balancing power disentangling for technologies and comparing their dynamics across specific hours in both samples. We show that the fuels-electricity nexus has changed significantly in the day-ahead sessions and selectively in the balancing sessions. We also find evidence of high balancing prices that we interpret as a signal of strategic use of real time sessions by conventional producers. Our findings suggest policy makers to carefully monitor all trading sessions, especially those close to real time, to avoid the exercise of market power by few operators allowed to guarantee system security and to promptly adopt a capacity market.
    Keywords: Electricity, Natural Gas, Coal, Oil, Cointegration, Balancing Costs
    Date: 2017–02–03
  30. By: Justine Knebelmann
    Abstract: Motivated by the fact that the taxation of natural resources is both crucial and particularly challenging for developing countries, this paper draws on a unique dataset to produce empirical evidence on two issues pertaining to the fiscal impact of oil. On a sample of 31 countries during the 2000s oil price boom, we first assess which country and sector characteristics are correlated with the effective tax on oil, i.e. the share of oil income collected by the government. Secondly, we test whether oil revenue evicts traditional tax revenues. We propose a new methodology to address this question and we conclude to the absence of such an eviction effect: we observe no effect of oil revenue on non-oil taxes through taxation channels, and linkages with the non-oil economy seem to yield additional non-oil tax revenues. These econometric analyses are complemented by six comparative case studies of countries observed before and after oil production begins. Historical, institutional and oil sector-specific information allows to account for differences observed in the evolution of the effective tax on oil and of non-oil taxes.
    Keywords: taxation, oil, resource revenues
    Date: 2017
  31. By: Olivier Rousse (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Benoît Sévi (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes)
    Abstract: The weekly release of the U.S. inventory level by the DOE-EIA is known as the market mover in the U.S. oil futures market and to be a significant piece of information for all world oil markets in which the WTI is a price benchmark. We uncover suspicious trading patterns in the WTI futures markets in days when the inventory level is released that are higher than economists’ forecasts: there are significantly more orders initiated by buyers in the two hours preceding the official release of the inventory level. We also show a clear drop in the average price of -0.25% ahead of the news release. This is consistent with informed trading. We also provide evidence of an asymmetric response of the oil price to the news, and highlight an over-reaction that is partly compensated in the hours following the announcement.
    Keywords: Insider Trading, WTI Crude Oil Futures, Intraday Data, Inventory Release
    Date: 2016–12–01
  32. By: Jørgen Juel Andersen; Frode Martin Nordvik; Andrea Tesei
    Abstract: We reconsider the relationship between oil and conflict, focusing on the location of oil resources. In a panel of 132 countries over the period 1962-2009, we show that oil windfalls increase the probability of conflict in onshore-rich countries, while they decrease this probability in offshore-rich countries. We use a simple model of conflict to illustrate how these opposite effects can be explained by a fighting capacity mechanism, whereby the government can use offshore oil income to increase its fighting capacity, while onshore oil may be looted by oppositional groups to fi-nance a rebellion. We provide empirical evidence supporting this interpretation: we find that oil windfalls increase both the number and strength of active rebel groups in onshore-rich countries, while they strengthen the government in offshore-rich ones.
    Keywords: Natural Resources, Conflict
    Date: 2017–01
  33. By: Elena Tkach (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Chelyabinsk branch); Yuliya Khanafiyeva (Chelyabinsk State University); Chekushina Irina (Chelyabinsk State University)
    Abstract: The article considers different Russian and foreign models of estimating probability of bankruptcy at business enterprises. The authors point out pluses and minuses of the given models, study possibilities of applying them for enterprises of oil and gas industry. Taking into consideration the revealed drawback the authors have worked out their own model of estimating probability of bankruptcy, tested accuracy of the results obtained with the help of this model
    Keywords: probability of bankruptcy, model of estimation, diagnostics, bankruptcy
    JEL: L0
    Date: 2015–11
  34. By: Nachtigall, Daniel
    Abstract: I analyze the role of research and development (R&D) spillovers on the incentives to link emissions trading schemes (ETSs) under different timings with respect to the determination of the emissions reduction target (ERT) and to the linking decision. When countries decide upon linking their ETSs prior to setting their ERTs, the permit importing country may not consent to link in the absence of R&D spillovers. The reason is that the other country strategically decreases its ERT to increase its revenues from permit trading, thereby increasing the costs for the permit importing country. However, in the presence of R&D spillovers, the permit importing country benefits from higher R&D spillovers and from lower environmental damage under linking relative to autarky and is therefore willing to link. When countries determine their ERTs prior to the linking decision, the role of R&D spillovers on the linking decision reverses. In the absence of R&D spillovers, both countries unambiguously are willing to link their ETSs due to the efficiency gains from trade. However, if R&D spillovers are relevant, the permit exporting country may be worse off under linking because its R&D spillovers deteriorate due to lower abatement effort by the other country. Hence, there is a trade-off between the efficiency gains from trade and the reduced R&D spillovers, causing the permit exporting country to reject linking if the spillover effect is sufficiently large.
    JEL: H41 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2016
  35. By: J. Isaac Miller (Department of Economics, University of Missouri)
    Abstract: Climate sensitivity relates total radiative forcing from anthropogenic and other sources to global mean temperature, and it depends on both changes in net heat transports and changes in the spatial distribution of temperature anomalies. An energy balance model, an easily implemented statistical methodology, and a supplementary inferential procedure are proposed to estimate local climate sensitivity using the historical record and to assess the contribution to overall climate sensitivity. Results are roughly comparable with extant findings from simulations using more complicated models. In particular, areas over ocean tend to import energy, they are relatively more sensitive to forcings, but they warm more slowly than those over land. Increases in the variation of predicted local temperature anomalies are estimated to be proportional to increases in forcings, and economic implications are discussed.
    Keywords: local climate sensitivity, energy balance model, historical temperature anomaly distributions, partially linear semiparametric model
    JEL: C14 C23 Q54
    Date: 2017–01–31
  36. By: Marina Solodovnikova (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Chelyabinsk branch)
    Abstract: The article focuses on new approaches to fiscal planning in the context of macroeconomic instability, high volatility in oil prices in the world market. The analysis of changes in indexes of spendings in the federal budget during a short period is presented
    Keywords: budget, spendings of federal budget, budget planning
    JEL: K0
    Date: 2015–11
  37. By: Jakob, Michael; Kübler, Dorothea; Steckel, Jan Christoph; van Velduizen, Roel
    Abstract: Although market-based environmental policy instruments feature prominently in economic theory and are widely employed, they often meet with public resistance. We argue that such resistance may be driven by a feeling of moral responsibility where citizens prefer to tackle environmental problems themselves, rather than delegating the task to others by means of a market mechanism. Using a laboratory experiment that isolates moral responsibility from alternative explanations, we show that moral responsibility induces participants to incur a sizable cost on themselves as well as on other participants. We discuss the implications of this finding for the design and implementation of environmental policies.
    Keywords: Laboratory Experiment,Moral Responsibility,Environmental Policy,Market Mechanism,Climate Change
    JEL: C90 H23 Q53 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2016
  38. By: Gravert, Christina (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Kurz, Verena (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University)
    Abstract: We test the effect of framing of a menu on the choice of ordering climate friendly dishes in a randomized controlled experiment. Rearranging the menu in favor of vegetarian food has a large and significant effect on the willingness to order a vegetarian dish instead of meat. We show that there exists a considerable marginal group willing to change meat consumption behavior at least in the short term. Our results demonstrate both to policy makers and to actors in the food service sector that small, cheap interventions can significantly decrease carbon emissions from food consumption.
    Keywords: Nudging; Field experiment; default; food choice
    JEL: C93 D12 Q50
    Date: 2017–02
  39. By: MADANI, Mehdi (UCL, Louvain School of Management); VAN VYVE, Mathieu (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)
    Abstract: We examine the problem of clearing day-ahead electricity market auctions where each bidder, whether a producer or consumer, can specify a minimum profit or maximum payment condition constraining the acceptance of a set of bid curves spanning multiple time periods in locations connected through a transmission network with linear constraints. Such types of conditions are for example considered in the Spanish and Portuguese day-ahead markets. This helps describing the recovery of start-up costs of a power plant, or analogously for a large consumer, utility reduced by a constant term. A new market model is proposed with a corresponding MILP formulation for uniform locational price day-ahead auctions, handling bids with a minimum profit or maximum payment condition in a uniform and computationally-efficient way. An exact decomposition procedure with sparse strengthened Benders cuts derived from the MILP formulation is also proposed. The MILP formulation and the decomposition procedure are similar to computationally-efficient approaches previously proposed to handle so-called block bids according to European market rules, though the clearing conditions could appear different at first sight. Both solving approaches are also valid to deal with both kinds of bids simultaneously, as block bids with a minimum acceptance ratio, generalizing fully indivisible block bids, are but a special case of the MP bids introduced here. We argue in favour of the MP bids by comparing them to previous models for minimum profit conditions proposed in the academic literature, and to the model for minimum income conditions used by the Spanish power exchange OMIE.
    Date: 2016–12–19
  40. By: Danielis, Romeo
    Abstract: Il tema se le auto elettriche emettano più o meno CO2 delle automobili con motori a combustione interna, considerando l’intero ciclo di vita, è largamente dibattuto nella letteratura scientifica e in diversi articoli giornalistici, spesso con riferimento alla realtà statunitense o a quella europea. Almeno a nostra conoscenza, non sono ancora state presentate stime riguardanti l’Italia. Questo contributo propone una stima comparativa: a) basata sul database VCA che ha catalogato le informazioni tecniche relative ai consumi energetici ed alle emissioni di CO2 per più di 45 mila automobili in vendita nel Regno Unito (e molte di queste anche in Italia), aggiornato all’agosto 2016; b) si concentra sulle principali automobili vendute in Italia nel 2016 per tipologia di alimentazione (a benzina, diesel, ibrida ed elettrica); c) tiene conto delle emissioni di CO2 durante la produzione di energia elettrica; d) incorpora le stime sulle emissioni di CO2 nella fase di produzione delle automobili e delle batterie proposte nella letteratura internazionale. Il risultato principale è che le auto elettriche emettono complessivamente meno CO2 delle automobili con motori a combustione interna: il 19% in meno delle auto a benzina, il 18% in meno delle auto diesel ed il 9% in meno delle ibride.
    Date: 2017
  41. By: Elena Tkach (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Chelyabinsk branch); Grigoriy Khavanskiy (Chelyabinsk State University)
    Abstract: The article highlights the main problems of managing risks in native energetics, considers possible ways of solving diagnosed problems, studies causes making modern enterprises of the energy sector search the most appropriate ways to minimize and even risks. In conclusion the authors suggest a number of measures aimed at improving risk management in the context of higher volatility of world energetic markets
    Keywords: risk management, energetic company, analysis of risks, risk-management
    JEL: L0
    Date: 2015–11
  42. By: Nina Anchugina; Matthew Ryan; Arkadii Slinko
    Abstract: We prove an analogue of Weitzman's (1998) famous result that an exponential discounter who is uncertain of the appropriate exponential discount rate should discount the far-distant future using the lowest (i.e., most patient) of the possible discount rates. Our analogous result applies to a hyperbolic discounter who is uncertain about the appropriate hyperbolic discount rate. In this case, the far-distant future should be discounted using the probability-weighted harmonic mean of the possible hyperbolic discount rates.
    Date: 2017–02

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