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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Matthew E. Kahn; Jerry Nickelsburg |
| Abstract: | Airline transport generates a growing share of global greenhouse gas emissions but as of late 2016, this sector has not faced U.S. fuel economy or emissions regulation. At any point in time, airlines own and lease a set of durable vehicles and have invested in human and physical capital and an inventory of parts to maintain these vehicles. Each airline chooses whether to scrap and replace airplanes in their fleet and how to utilize and operate their fleet of aircraft. We model these choices as a function of real jet fuel prices. When jet fuel prices are higher, airlines fly fuel inefficient planes slower, scrap older fuel inefficient planes earlier and substitute miles flown to their more fuel efficient planes. |
| JEL: | L11 L62 R4 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22830&r=ene |
| By: | Galassi, Veronica (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the role of environmental concern and comfort expectations in the decision to retrofit a dwelling and their implications for the rebound effect. We ex-ante elicit individual preferences for deep thermal energy-saving measures in residential buildings by means of a Discrete Choice Experiment (DCE) among 3,161 owner-occupiers and tenants in Germany. Besides room temperature, we include air quality, level of control over the system, noise reduction, and aesthetics of the dwelling as proxies for indoor comfort. Our model also accounts for monthly payments related to the implementation of the measure – and customized based on tenancy status, building type, and size of the dwelling – as well as technical energy cost savings. Econometric estimation provides significant results for most of the parameter coefficients. Findings show that thermal comfort preferences are heterogeneous: 33% of the respondents attach positive values to an increase in indoor temperature that would result from the deep retrofit, providing evidence in favor of a technical rebound effect. While environmental concern explains heterogeneity in most of the attributes, its interaction with thermal comfort is not significant. Thermal comfort is, however, the least important attribute in the analysis. |
| Keywords: | Rebound; Mixed logit; Residential buildings; Energy efficiency |
| JEL: | C25 D12 Q40 R20 |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2016_011&r=ene |
| By: | Olivier Damette (BETA-CNRS Université de Lorraine) |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses the impact of some macroeconomic drivers (carbon emissions per capita, energy consumption, income, innovation, energy dependency, European directives...) on the use of renewable energy sources (Wind, Hydro, Biomass...) in a set of 24 European countries over the 1990-2015 period.We show that previous literature failed to take into account both non stationary issues and non linearity in panel econometric frameworks. Using very recent non stationary panel econometric methods (panel unit root tests with breaks and common factors, cointegrations tests with cross sectional dependence and breaks), we focus on socioeconomic and political factors and show that the main factors explaining the renewable dynamics are income per capita (income effect: a higher income is associated to more easy investments in Renewables and a proxy of high environmental protection in line with the Kuznets Curve literature), energy dependency (comparative advantage effect in energy resources: low resources and high dependency are associated to high renewables use) and the level of oil prices (however, no evidence of a substitution effect between fossils and renewables). In contrary, we do not find evidence of environmental concerns explaining the growth of renewables use since we show a negative and statistically significant relationship between CO2 emissions and the log of the renewable share in countries. In addition, we show that energy consumption/use signal is positive and statistically significant and robust. Using high levels of energy to drive the growth would lead to promoting RE (probably a mean effect, using quantiles we expect a negative sign for very high levels of energy consumption). Further work is in progress to investigate non linear effects using PSTR (Panel Smooth Transition Regression) models. Endogeneity (CO2, Energy Use) issues should also be taken into account by simultaneous models and Granger causality tests. Finally, introducing political policies as other drivers of renewables growth would also be an improvement of the existing work. |
| Keywords: | energy economics, renewables, cointegration, panel |
| JEL: | Q42 Q43 C33 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:5306976&r=ene |
| By: | Stephen Gibbons |
| Abstract: | This study provides quantitative evidence on the local benefits and costs of wind farm developments in England and Wales, focussing on their visual environmental impacts. In the tradition of studies in environmental, public and urban economics, housing sales prices are used to reveal local preferences for views of wind farm developments. Estimation is based on quasi-experimental research designs that compare price changes occurring in places where wind farms become visible, with price changes in appropriate comparison groups. These groups include places close to wind farms that became visible in the past, or where they will become operational in the future and places close to wind farms sites but where the turbines are hidden by the terrain. All these comparisons suggest that wind farm visibility reduces local house prices, and the implied visual environmental costs are substantial. |
| Keywords: | housing prices; environment; wind farms; infrastructure; energy |
| JEL: | Q4 Q51 R3 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:62880&r=ene |
| By: | Christian Gambardella; Michael Pahle; Wolf-Peter Schill |
| Abstract: | Common intuition holds that retail real-time pricing (RTP) of electricity demand should become more beneficial in markets with high variable renewable energy (VRE) supply mainly due to increased price volatility. Using German market data, we test this intuition by simulating long-run electricity market equilibria with carbon-tax-induced VRE investment and real-time price responsive and nonresponsive consumption behavior. We find that the potential welfare gains from RTP are only partially explained by price volatility and are rather driven by opposing wholesale price effects caused by the technology portfolio changes from carbon taxation. Consequently, annual benefits from RTP actually change nonmonotonously with the carbon tax level, implying that increasing RTP at relatively high VRE shares can be both less and much more beneficial than without VRE supply. Nonetheless, as zero marginal cost supply becomes abundant with VRE entry, allocative efficiency increasingly depends on exposing more and more consumers to RTP |
| Keywords: | Real-time pricing; Electricity; Variable renewables; Carbon taxation; Welfare analysis; Partial equilibrium modeling |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1621&r=ene |
| By: | Lunina, Veronika (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This study presents a model for the joint dynamics of power price, temperature, and hydrological balance, with a view towards scenario analysis. Temperature is a major demand-side factor affecting power prices, while hydrobalance is a major supply-side factor in power markets dominated by hydrological generation, such as the Nordic market. Our time series modelling approach coupled with the skew-Student distribution allows for interrelations in both mean and volatility, and accommodates most of the discovered empirical features, such as periodic patterns and long memory. We find that in the Nordic market, the relationship between temperature and power price is driven by the demand for heating, while the cooling effect during summer months does not exist. Hydrobalance, on the other hand, negatively affects power prices throughout the year. We demonstrate how the proposed model can be used to generate a variety of joint temperature/hydrobalance scenarios and analyse the implications for power price. |
| Keywords: | spot power price; temperature; hydrological scenarios; VARFIMA-BEKK; skew-Student |
| JEL: | C32 G17 Q41 |
| Date: | 2016–11–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2016_030&r=ene |
| By: | Mitra, Krishnendranath; Dutta, Goutam |
| Abstract: | In this paper we propose a scheduling model for electrical appliances in a dynamic pricing environment. Initially we have given a vector of price points for the next twenty four hours. We have developed an optimization model that minimizes cost to customer subject to operating time spans provided by the customer as per their requirements. The model is further modified to derive prices based on the consumption of electricity at the concerned time slot. We have also studied the effects of including energy storage and renewable energy generation at the consumer level. In this case we propose a linear price function that helps in automatically generating a price value for a time slot. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iim:iimawp:14553&r=ene |
| By: | Rammer, Christian; Gottschalk, Sandra; Peneder, Michael; Wörter, Martin; Stucki, Tobias; Arvanitis, Spyros |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of energy policies on the export performance of firms. There has been a long policy debate on potentially negative impacts of cost-increasing energy policies on international competitiveness. We use firm-level data from three countries with similar industry structure but different energy policies: Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. We rely on firm manager assessments on the relevance of energy policy (in terms of taxes, regulations, standards, subsidies and demand stimulation) for their firm operation and link data on the adoption and development of new energy technologies. Regression analyses and matching approaches both show very few impacts of energy policy on export performance, suggesting that either policy impacts on firms' cost are negligible in the period of study (2012 to 2014) or likely negative impacts are balanced by the adoption of new technology. |
| Keywords: | energy policy,technology adoption,competitiveness,export,matching approach |
| JEL: | O33 Q48 Q55 F14 F18 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:16075&r=ene |
| By: | Loretta Mastroeni; Pierluigi Vellucci |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study the possible "chaotic" nature of some energy and commodity futures time series (like heating oil and natural gas, among the others). In particular the sensitive dependence on initial conditions (the so called "butterfly effect", which represents one of the characterizing properties of a chaotic system) is investigated estimating the Kolmogorov entropy, in addition to the maximum Lyapunov exponent. The results obtained with these two methods are consistent and should indicate the presence of butterfly effect. Nevertheless, this phenomenon - which is usually showed by deterministic systems - is not here completely deterministic. In fact, using a test introduced by Kaplan and Glass, we prove that, for all the series analyzed here, the stochastic component and the deterministic one turn up to be approximately in the same proportions. The presence of butterfly effect in energy futures markets is a controversial matter, and the evaluations obtained here confirm the findings of some authors cited in this paper. Thus, we can say with reasonable certainty that in energy futures markets we cannot talk about deterministic butterfly effect. |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1611.07432&r=ene |
| By: | Bernard Beaudreau (Université Laval) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a critique of the General Purpose Technology (GPT) framework. It argues that the GPT framework is fundamentally flawed as an approach to understanding growth as it focuses on what are input production technologies (hereafter input technologies), and not on the associated primary inputs and resulting outputs. Computers don't produce output; rather, they produce information which is necessary for the production of output. Dynamos don't produce output, rather they transform prime movers (steam, hydraulics, fossil fuels) into electricity which is transmitted to machines that ultimately produce output. Steam engines don't produce output; rather, they too transmit prime movers (fossil fuels) into output. The problem with the GPT framewoek lies with the implicit assumption that there exists a one-to-one relationship between the intermediate input and the primary input. We will show that this assumption was violated in all three classic GPT cases, which explains what Paul Davd referred to as the "electricity paradox" and what Robert Solow referred to as the "information paradox." We then proceed to present an alternative framework based on the concept of enabling technologies. |
| Keywords: | Growth, General Purpose Technologies, Information Paradox |
| JEL: | O31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:5306859&r=ene |
| By: | Marco Modica (IRCrES-CNR, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Despite biogas is considered a renewable source of energy, the social acceptability of biogas plants is controversial due to resistance from local communities who are afraid of potential local negative externalities. This paper aim at investigating this claim using evidence from the housing market by means of a diff-in-diff model. Indeed, if households evaluate the presence of biogas plant such as a disamenity, this should be incorporated in the housing values. To this purpose I use data on the housing market of Piedmont provinces where 167 biogas plants have been opened between 2006 and 2015. Results show no significant impact of the opening of a biogas plant on the housing values. |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:srt:wpaper:1216&r=ene |
| By: | Olivier Massol (IFP School & City University London); Omer Rifaat (IFP School) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a detailed partial equilibrium model of the global helium market to study the effects of the recently decided rapid phase out of the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve (FHR), a vast strategic stockpile accumulated during the 1960s. The model incorporates a detailed representation of that industry and treats both helium producers and the FHR as players in a dynamic non-cooperative game. The goal of each player is assumed to be the maximization of discounted profit, subject to technical and resource constraints. We consider two alternative policies aimed at organizing the phase out of the FHR: the currently implemented one and a less stringent one whereby the FHR would be allowed to operate as a profit-maximizing agent during a 20-year extended period. Evidences gained from a series of market simulations indicate that, compared to the current policy, the less stringent policy mandate systematically increases the financial return to the U.S. federal budget, always enhances environmental outcomes as it lowers helium venting into the atmosphere, and also augments global welfare in three out of the four scenarios considered in the paper. |
| Keywords: | Helium economics, Strategic reserve, Resource conservation, Partial equilibrium modeling, Imperfect competition |
| JEL: | Q38 Q31 Q02 L72 L78 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2016.29&r=ene |
| By: | Kamiar Mohaddes; M. Hashem Pesaran |
| Abstract: | The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower interest rates and inflation in most countries, and increase global real equity prices. The effects on real output are positive, although they take longer to materialize (around four quarters after the shock). We then re-examine the effects of low oil prices on the U.S. economy over different sub-periods using monthly observations on real oil prices, real equity prices and real dividends. We confirm the perverse positive relationship between oil and equity prices over the period since the 2008 financial crisis highlighted in the recent literature, but show that this relationship has been unstable when considered over the longer time period of 1946–2016. In contrast, we find a stable negative relationship between oil prices and real dividends which we argue is a better proxy for economic activity (as compared to equity prices). On the supply side, the effects of lower oil prices differ widely across the different oil producers, and could be perverse initially, as some of the major oil producers try to compensate their loss of revenues by raising production. Taking demand and supply adjustments to oil price changes as a whole, we conclude that oil markets equilibrate but rather slowly, with large episodic swings between low and high oil prices. |
| Date: | 2016–11–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:16/210&r=ene |
| By: | Jain, Varinder |
| Abstract: | With sluggish growth in alternate technologies, economic growth across the world has remained largely fuelled by hydro-carbons whose burning has contributed to the menace of global warming. In such a situation, this study focusing on the economies of China, India and Japan – the three Asian Giants, aims at not only ascertaining their fossil fuel dependence but it also addresses its environmental implications. Moreover, it contrasts their attainments in clean energy development. An analysis of trade in climate smart technologies reflects the nature of mutual cooperation among these giants. Similarly, an analysis of recent trends in investment financing corroborates their pursuit of low carbon growth agenda which is a major cause of concern in most of the international climate change negotiations. |
| Keywords: | Fossil Fuels, Oil, Coal, Natural Gas, Clean Energy, Solar Energy, Wind Energy, Renewable Energy Investment, Climate Smart Technologies Trade, Asian Giants, India, China, Japan |
| JEL: | F15 Q20 Q41 Q42 |
| Date: | 2016–11–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:75121&r=ene |
| By: | Thomas Bue Bjørner (Danish Economic Councils); Jørgen Brandt (Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University); Lars Gårn Hansen (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen; Danish Economic Councils); Martin Groth Hjelmsø (Danish Economic Councils); Marianne Nygaard Källstrøm (Danish Economic Councils) |
| Abstract: | Air pollution is a major global challenge. Emissions from residential wood-burning stoves make a surprisingly large contribution to total air pollution related health costs. In Denmark, emissions from wood-burning stoves are calculated to cause almost 400 premature deaths each year within Denmark and additionally about 300 premature deaths in other parts of Europe. In this article, we present an integrated assessment of the net social benefit of different schemes for regulating wood-burning stoves including bans and taxes. The assessment uses high resolution air pollution emission inventory, and atmospheric dispersion and exposure models to estimate the health effects of imposing regulations on residential wood-burning. This is combined with an economic stove investment and use model to simulate reactions to regulations and evaluate compliance costs. We find that there are large net welfare gains from most types of regulation, but the largest gains result from imposing a differentiated tax or a general ban on older stoves. The results for Denmark suggest that there could be substantial welfare gains from regulating residential wood-burning stoves in other countries as well. |
| Keywords: | wood-burning stoves, particle emission, cost-benefit, regulation, integrated assessment |
| JEL: | I18 Q48 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:foi:wpaper:2016_11&r=ene |
| By: | Gu, Yewen (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Wallace, Stein W. (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Wang, Xin (Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management, Norwegian University of Science and Technology) |
| Abstract: | The shipping industry carries over 90 percent of the world’s trade, and is hence a major contributor to CO2 and other airborne emissions. As a global effort to reduce air pollution from ships, the implementation of the ECA (Emission Control Areas) regulations has given rise to the wide usage of cleaner fuels. This has led to an increased emphasis on the management and risk control of maritime bunker costs for many shipping companies. In this paper, we provide a novel view on the relationship between bunker risk management and CO2 emissions. In particular, we investigate how different actions taken in bunker risk management, based on different risk aversions and fuel hedging strategies, impact a shipping company’s CO2 emissions. We use a stochastic programming model and perform various comparison tests in a case study based on a major liner company. Our results show that a shipping company’s risk attitude on bunker costs have impacts on its CO2 emissions. We also demonstrate that, by properly designing its hedging strategies, a shipping company can sometimes achieve noticeable CO2 reduction with little financial sacrifice. |
| Keywords: | Bunker risk management; Maritime bunker management; CO2 emissions; Stochastic programming; ECA; Fuel hedging; Sailing behavior |
| JEL: | C44 C60 |
| Date: | 2016–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2016_017&r=ene |
| By: | Patrick Vetter (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, European University Viadrina, Frankfurt (Oder)); Wolfgang Schmid (Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, European University Viadrina, Frankfurt (Oder)); Reimund Schwarze (Europa University Viadrina and Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ)) |
| Abstract: | The analysis of sources and sinks of CO2 is a dominant topic in diverse research fields and in political debates these days. The threat of climate change fosters the research efforts in the natural sciences in order to quantify the carbon sequestration potential of the terrestrial ecosystem and CO2 mitigation negotiations strengthens the need for a transparent, consistent and verifiable Moni- toring, Verification and Reporting infrastructure. This paper provides a spatio-temporal statistical modeling framework, which allows for a quantification of the Net Ecosystem Production and of anthropogenic sources, based on satellite data for surface CO2 concentrations and source and sink connected covariates. Using spatial and temporal latent random effects, that act as space-time varying coefficients, the complex dependence structure can be modeled adequately. Finally, spatio-temporal smoothed estimates for the sources and sinks can be used to provide dynamic maps on 0.5 × 0.5 grid for the Eurasien area in intervals of 16 days between September 2009 and August 2012. Finally, the self-reported CO2 emissions within the UNFCCC can be compared with the model results. |
| Keywords: | Anthropogenic CO2 emissions, Net Ecosystem Production, Linear mixed effects, Spatio- temporal model |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:euv:dpaper:24&r=ene |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Tavares, Samia; Ahmed, Khalid; Hammoudeh, Shawkat |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship between trade openness and CO2 emissions by incorporating economic growth as an additional and potential determinant of this relationship for three groups of 105 high, middle and low income countries. We apply the Pedroni (1999) and Westerlund (2007) panel cointegration tests and find that the three variables are cointegrated in the long run. Trade openness impedes environmental quality for the global, high income, middle and low income panels but the impact varies in these diverse groups of countries. The panel VECM causality results highlights a feedback effect between trade openness and carbon emissions at the global level and the middle income countries but trade openness Granger causes CO2 emissions for the high income and low income countries. Policy implications are also provided. |
| Keywords: | Trade Openness, CO2 Emissions, Causality |
| JEL: | Q5 |
| Date: | 2016–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:75133&r=ene |
| By: | Marco Letta (Sapienza Università di Roma); Richard S.J. Tol (University of Sussex; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; CESifo) |
| Abstract: | Recently it has been hypothesized that climate change will affect total factor productivity growth. Given the importance of TFP for long-run economic growth, if true this would entail a substantial upward revision of current impact estimates. Using macro TFP data from a recently developed dataset in Penn World Tables, we test this hypothesis by directly examining the nature of the relationship between annual temperature shocks and TFP growth rates in the last decades. The results show a negative relationship only in poor countries. While statistically significant, the estimate upper bound is a reduction of TFP growth is less than 0.1%, i.e., climate change will decelerate but not reverse economic growth. This finding increases concerns over the distributional issues of future impacts, and restates the case for complementarity between climate policy and poverty reduction. |
| Keywords: | weather variability; climate change; total factor productivity; economic growth |
| JEL: | O44 O47 Q54 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sus:susewp:10216&r=ene |
| By: | Sam Fankhauser |
| Abstract: | This article reviews the economic and analytical challenges of adaptation to climate change. Adaptation to climate risks that can no longer be avoided is an important aspect of the global response to climate change. Humans have always adapted to changing climatic conditions, and there is growing, if still patchy, evidence of widespread adaptation behaviour. However, adaptation is not “autonomous†, as sometimes claimed. It requires knowledge, planning, coordination and foresight. There are important adaptation gaps, behavioural barriers and market failures, which hold back effective adaptation and require policy intervention. We identify the most urgent adaptation priorities, areas where delay might lock in future vulnerability, and outline the decision-making challenges of adapting to an unknown future climate. We also highlight the strong inter-linkages between adaptation and economic development, pointing out that decisions on industrial strategy, urban planning and infrastructure investment all have strong bearing on future vulnerability to climate change. We review the implications of these links for adaptation finance, and what the literature tells us about the balance between adaptation and mitigation. |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp255&r=ene |
| By: | Martin Weitzman |
| Abstract: | This paper postulates the conceptually useful allegory of a futuristic “World Climate Assembly” (WCA) that votes for a single worldwide price on carbon emissions via the basic democratic principle of one-person one-vote majority rule. If this WCA framework can be accepted in the first place, then voting on a single internationally- binding minimum carbon price (the proceeds from which are domestically retained) tends to counter self-interest by incentivizing countries or agents to internalize the externality. I attempt to sketch out the sense in which each WCA-agent's extra cost from a higher emissions price is counter-balanced by that agent's extra benefit from inducing all other WCA-agents to simultaneously lower their emissions in response to the higher price. The first proposition of this paper derives a relatively simple formula relating each emitter's single-peaked most-preferred world price of carbon emissions to the world “Social Cost of Carbon” (SCC). The second and third propositions relate the WCA-voted world price of carbon to the world SCC. I argue that the WCA-voted price and the SCC are unlikely to differ sharply. Some implications are discussed. The overall methodology of the paper is a mixture of mostly classical with some behavioral economics. |
| JEL: | F51 H41 K23 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22813&r=ene |