nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2016‒10‒16
34 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO 2016) Road from Paris By Alban Kitous; Kimon Keramidas; Toon Vandyck; Bert Saveyn
  2. Shedding Light: Understanding Energy Efficiency and Electricity Reliability in Developing Countries By Eliana Carranza; Robyn Meeks
  3. Resilience, coal and the macroeconomy By Molyneaux, Lynette; Brown, Colin; Foster, John; Wagner, Liam
  4. Does Daylight Saving Save Energy? A Meta-Analysis By Havranek, Tomas; Herman, Dominik; Irsova, Zuzana
  5. The Timing and other Determinants of Gas Central Heating Adoption By McCoy, Daire; Curtis, John
  6. Making the implicit explicit: A look inside the implicit discount rate By Joachim Schleich; Xavier Gassmann; Corinne Faure; Thomas Meissner
  7. The Effects of Home Energy Efficiency Upgrades on Social Housing Tenants: Evidence from Ireland By Coyne, Bryan; Lyons, Sean; McCoy, Daire
  8. Value for Money in Energy Efficiency Retrofits in Ireland: Grant Provider and Grant Recipients By Collins, Matthew; Curtis, John
  9. Adoption of low-cost energy efficiency measures in the tertiary sector—An empirical analysis based on energy survey data By Barbara Schlomann; Joachim Schleich
  10. Energy coordination in eco-districts: The multi-disciplinary NEXUS project By Gilles Debizet; Caroline Gauthier; Stéphane La Branche; Philippe Menanteau; Valérie Ambroise-Renault; Odile Blanchard; Sylvie Blanco; Nicolas Buclet; Antoine Dore; Fabrice Forest; Bettina Gilomen; Olivier Labussiere; Xavier Long; Patrice Schneuwly; Antoine Tabourdeau
  11. Transports et "facteur 4" : que reste-t-il du Grenelle ? By Yves Crozet
  12. Optimal trading policies for wind energy producer By Zongjun Tan; Peter Tankov
  13. Influence of Safety Risk Perception on Post-Fukushima Generation Mix and its Policy Implications in Japan By Akiko Iimura and Jeffrey Scott Cross
  14. Nuclear waste storage and environmental intergenerational externalities By Mouez Fodha
  15. Price Transparency in Residential Electricity: Experiments for Regulatory Policy By Lunn, Pete; Bohacek, Marek
  16. How Dependent is Growth from Primary Energy? The Dependency ratio of Energy in 33 Countries (1970-2011) By Gaël Giraud; Zeynep Kahraman
  17. Economic growth and energy consumption in Iran: an ARDL approach including renewable and non-renewable energies By Mohamad Taghvaee, Vahid; Mavuka, Clever; Khodaparast Shirazi, Jalil
  18. Public-private partnerships, incomplete contracts, and distributional fairness – when payments matter By Yildiz, Özgür
  19. The links between crude oil prices and GCC stock markets: Evidence from time-varying Granger causality tests By Mehmet Balcilar; Rangan Gupta; Ýsmail H. Gençb
  20. Forecasting inflation in post-oil boom years: A case for non-linear models? By Vugar Ahmadov; Shaig Adigozalov; Salman Huseynov; Fuad Mammadov; Vugar Rahimov
  21. Learning in the Oil Futures Markets: Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications By Sylvain Leduc; Kevin Moran; Robert J. Vigfusson
  22. The Effects of Oil Price Shocks in a New-Keynesian Framework with Capital Accumulation By Verónica Acurio Vásconez; Gaël Giraud; Florent Mc Isaac; Ngoc-Sang Pham
  23. Confidence Sets for the Break Date in Cointegrating Regressions By KUROZUMI, Eiji; SKROBOTOV, Anton
  24. Foods, fuels or finances: Which prices matter for biofuels? By Ondrej Filip; Karel Janda; Ladislav Kristoufek; David Zilberman
  25. Securing property rights By Edward L. Glaeser; Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto; Andrei Shleifer
  26. Vog: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Health Costs of Particulates By Timothy Halliday; John Lynham; Aureo de Paula
  27. Transitional Dynamics in an R&D-based Growth Model with Natural Resources By Thanh Le; Cuong Le Van
  28. Is the Environment Compatible with Growth? Adopting an Integrated Framework By Lucas Bretschger
  29. Environmental Degradation, Energy consumption, Population Density and Economic Development in Lebanon: A time series Analysis (1971-2014) By Audi, Marc; Ali, Amjad
  30. Optimal abatement and taxation for internalizing externalities: A dynamic game with feedback strategies By Halkos, George; Papageorgiou, George
  31. Voluntary Corporate Climate Initiatives and Regulatory Loom: Batten Down the Hatches By Dragan Ilic; Janick Christian Mollet
  32. Global warming as an asymmetric public bad By Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet; Céline Guivarch
  33. Economics of Pipelines: the United Kingdom Continental Shelf (UKCS) and the case for government intervention By Anastasia Charalampidou
  34. Joint Design of Emission Tax and Trading Systems By Bernard Caillaud; Gabrielle Demange

  1. By: Alban Kitous (European Commission – JRC); Kimon Keramidas (European Commission – JRC); Toon Vandyck (European Commission – JRC); Bert Saveyn (European Commission – JRC)
    Abstract: This report examines the effects on greenhouse gases emissions and energy markets of a Reference scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, of two scenarios where the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions have been included, and of a 2°C scenario in line with keeping global warming below the limits agreed in international negotiations. The report presents an updated version of the modelling work that supported by DG CLIMA in the UNFCCC negotiations that resulted in the Paris Agreement of the COP21 in December 2015. In the Reference scenario, emissions trigger global warming above 3°C. In the INDC scenarios, regions adopt domestic policies that result in global changes in emissions and energy use, and would result in the long term in a global warming around 3°C; the INDCs cover 28-44% of the cumulated emissions reductions necessary to remain below a 2°C warming. In the 2°C scenario, all regions realise domestic emission cuts to stay below 2°C, with various profiles in 2020-2050 depending on their national characteristics. Reduction of non-CO2 emissions (34% in 2030), energy efficiency (20%) and the deployment of renewable energies (20%) are the main options contributing in the mitigation effort. A significant number of regions draw economic benefits from shifting their expenditures on fossil energy imports to investments. GDP growth rates are marginally affected in most regions by global efforts to reduce emissions. Crucially, high growth rates are maintained in fast-growing low-income regions. Delaying actions to stay below 2°C add large economic costs. The analysis uses the POLES and GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change.
    Keywords: Climate, mitigation, GHG emissions, energy, international negotiations, COP21, Road to Paris, IPCC, UNFCCC, modelling, GEM-E3, POLES
    JEL: C68 Q43
    Date: 2016–07
  2. By: Eliana Carranza; Robyn Meeks
    Abstract: Overloaded electrical systems are a major source of unreliable power (outages) in developing countries. Using a randomized saturation design, we estimate the impact of energy efficient lightbulbs on household electricity consumption and local electricity reliability. Receiving compact fluorescent lightbulbs (CFLs) significantly reduced household electricity consumption. Estimates not controlling for spillovers in take-up underestimate the impacts of the CFLs, as control households near the treated are likely to take-up CFLs themselves. Greater saturation of CFLs within a transformer leads to aggregate reliability impacts of two fewer days per month without electricity due to unplanned outages relative to pure controls. Increased electricity reliability permits households to consume more electricity services, suggesting that CFL treatment results in technological externalities. The spillovers in take-up and technological externalities that we document may provide an additional explanation for the gap between empirical and engineering estimates of the impacts of energy efficient technologies.
    Date: 2016
  3. By: Molyneaux, Lynette; Brown, Colin; Foster, John; Wagner, Liam
    Abstract: There remains a debate about ‘oil and the macroeconomy’ despite James Hamilton’s claims. Manufacturing in 1970s US was, however, reliant on natural gas and electricity generated from coal, not oil. Whilst coal and electricity prices also rose in the 1970s their descent to pre-1974 levels was slower than the decline in oil prices. This research considers energy resilience during the 1970s. Spare capacity, natural gas and renewable energy are key resilience characteristics that predict improved manufacturing employment. The conclusion reached is that the rise in coal prices played a role, separate to oil price, in the macro-economies of US states.
    Keywords: Energy resilience; Energy security; Macroeconomics; Oil
    JEL: E30 Q43
    Date: 2016–10–12
  4. By: Havranek, Tomas; Herman, Dominik; Irsova, Zuzana
    Abstract: The original rationale for adopting daylight saving time (DST) was energy savings. Modern research studies, however, question the magnitude and even direction of the effect of DST on energy consumption. Representing the first meta-analysis in this literature, we collect 162 estimates from 44 studies and find that the mean reported estimate indicates modest energy savings: 0.34% during the days when DST applies. The literature is not affected by publication bias, but the results vary systematically depending on the exact data and methodology applied. Using Bayesian model averaging we identify the most important factors driving the heterogeneity of the reported effects: data frequency, estimation technique (simulation vs. regression), and, importantly, the latitude of the country considered. Energy savings are larger for countries farther away from the equator, while subtropical regions consume more energy because of DST.
    Keywords: daylight saving time; energy savings; Bayesian model averaging; meta-analysis; publication bias
    JEL: Q48
    Date: 2016–10–12
  5. By: McCoy, Daire; Curtis, John
    Date: 2016–08
  6. By: Joachim Schleich (Fraunhofer ISI - Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research - Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, MTS - Management Technologique et Strategique - Grenoble École de Management (GEM)); Xavier Gassmann (MKT - Marketing - Grenoble École de Management (GEM)); Corinne Faure (MKT - Marketing - Grenoble École de Management (GEM)); Thomas Meissner (TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF BERLIN, MKT - Marketing - Grenoble École de Management (GEM))
    Abstract: Implicit discount rates (IDRs) are employed in energy models to capture household investment decisions, yet the factors behind the IDR and their respective implications for policy-making usually remain blurred and fractional. The proposed comprehensive framework distinguishes three broad categories of factors underlying the IDR for household adoption of energy-efficient technologies (EETs): preferences (notably over time, risk, loss, debt, and the environment), predictable (ir)rational behavior (bounded rationality, rational inattention, behavioral biases), and external barriers to energy efficiency. Existing empirical findings suggest that the factors underlying the IDRs that differ across household characteristics and technologies should be accounted for in energy models. Furthermore, the framework allows for a fresh look at the interplay of IDRs and policies. We argue that a simple observation of high IDRs (or observing correlations between IDRs and socio-economic characteristics) does not provide guidance for policy-making since the underlying sources cannot be identified. Instead, we propose that some of the factors underlying the IDR - notably external barriers - can be changed (through directed policy interventions) whereas other factors - notably preferences and predictable (ir)rational behavior - are innate and can only be taken into account (through reactive policy interventions).
    Keywords: Energy efficiency, Energy modeling, Implicit discount rate, Energy policy, Behavioral economics
    Date: 2016–10
  7. By: Coyne, Bryan; Lyons, Sean; McCoy, Daire
    Abstract: This research examines the impact of a home energy efficiency upgrade programme on social housing tenants. Employing a quasi-experimental approach we examine a range of self-reported and objectively measured outcomes, including metered gas consumption, for a control and upgrade group, before and after the upgrade. We draw our sample from a large home energy efficiency programme in Ireland, The SEAI Better Energy Communities Scheme, which provides funding for whole communities to upgrade the efficiency of their dwellings. Dwellings are selected for upgrade based on need, allowing us to control for observable dwelling characteristics correlated with selection into the trial. The upgrades undertaken are extensive relative to the average home energy improvement in Ireland, with many dwellings receiving a number of measures, such as cavity wall, external wall and attic insulation; new boilers; replacement doors and windows; CFL lighting and heating controls. Households report improvements across a range of outcomes associated with heating-related deprivation and comfort in the home. Panel regression models examine the elasticity of gas demand with respect to the thermal efficiency of the dwellings. Overall, we find that use of natural gas falls much less than 1:1 for each increment to thermal efficiency of the home. For the average household in this study, about half of a
    Date: 2016–10
  8. By: Collins, Matthew; Curtis, John
    Abstract: The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) administers the Better Energy Homes (BEH) scheme to provide a financial incentive for home owners to engage in energy efficiency retrofits. This study analyses the BEH data and Building Energy Rating data for BEH-participant homes to examine the value for money achieved by households. In addition, this research identifies which retrofit combinations provide greatest value for money, in terms of energy efficiency gains, for the grant provider. We utilise an error-in-variables approach to model the variation in benefits accruing to households of varying characteristics. We find that household and grant provider surplus can be maximised in the short term by retrofitting less energy efficient and larger homes, timber or steel frame homes and houses rather and apartments. The types of retrofits leading to the greatest surplus for both households and the grant provider include cavity wall insulation paired with either a boiler with heating controls or heating controls only retrofit.
    Date: 2016–09
  9. By: Barbara Schlomann (Fraunhofer ISI - Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research - Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research); Joachim Schleich (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University [Blacksburg], MTS - Management Technologique et Strategique - Grenoble École de Management (GEM))
    Abstract: This paper empirically explores factors driving the adoption of low cost energy efficiency measures in the tertiary sector which mainly consists of public and private services, trade, commerce and some small industries. The measures considered include switching off installations or lighting, managing energy use, and routinely considering energy efficiency for new purchases. Our statistical analysis employs single and multivariate probit models relying on more than 1500 observations from a recent representative survey of the tertiary sector in Germany. The findings suggest that the landlord-tenant dilemma holds for the adoption of all low-cost energy efficiency measures considered. They further imply that financial incentives such as higher energy prices accelerate the diffusion of low-cost energy measures. Our findings also provide some evidence that knowledge transfer from the mother company to a subsidiary enhances the diffusion of low-cost energy efficiency measures. Likewise, public-sector organizations are more likely to adopt energy management. By and large though, sectoral heterogeneity appears to have little impact on the adoption of low-cost energy efficiency measures.
    Keywords: tertiary sector,low-cost energy efficiency measures,Energy management
    Date: 2015
  10. By: Gilles Debizet (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Caroline Gauthier (Grenoble Ecole de Management - Grenoble École de Management (GEM)); Stéphane La Branche (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Philippe Menanteau (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Valérie Ambroise-Renault (Chercheur Indépendant); Odile Blanchard (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Sylvie Blanco (Grenoble Ecole de Management - Grenoble École de Management (GEM)); Nicolas Buclet (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Antoine Dore (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Fabrice Forest (INNOVACS); Bettina Gilomen (Grenoble Ecole de Management - Grenoble École de Management (GEM)); Olivier Labussiere (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Xavier Long (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Patrice Schneuwly (CEA/LITEN/DTNM/LT - CEA - Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives, CEA-LITEN-DTS); Antoine Tabourdeau (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes)
    Abstract: Funded by ADEME (French Environment and Energy Management Agency) the NEXUS project aims at identifying innovations in energy storage and management (especially of intermittent renewables) at the level of eco-districts or city blocks. The multidisciplinary analysis involves technological, sociological, economic, city planning and political dimensions 1. The research analyses socio-energy nodes (SEN) at district or block level. SENs are seen as the place of the coordination among district stakeholders, from real estate, energy and city planning actors to constructors or investors. Deploying appropriate technical systems, SENs are supposed to be more or less replicable from a territory to another. The project studies the arrangement and deployment conditions of SENs at district level and describes them through a portfolio of contrasted scenarios (including smart grids) in view of a 2040 goal of dividing greenhouse gases by 4. These scenarios will propose visions of districts or blocks able to smoothen energy intermittencies, using assumptions about economic constraints, technological capacities, regulatory context and political decisions at local and national scales.
    Keywords: Ecodistrict,Planning,Coordination,Renewable energies integration,Energy
    Date: 2014–09–20
  11. By: Yves Crozet (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon)
    Abstract: La prise en compte des contraintes climatiques et énergétique est, en France, installée depuis près de vingt ans au sommet de l’agenda des politiques publiques. De la loi sur l’air et l’usage rationnel de l’énergie (LAURE, 1996) à la loi sur la transition écologique et énergétique (2015), en passant par la loi Solidarité et renouvellement urbain (SRU, 2000) et bien sûr le Grenelle de l’environnement (2009 et 2010), les ambitions demeurent, notamment pour le secteur des transports. Lors du Grenelle s’est imposée, dans ce domaine comme pour toutes les activités émettant des gaz à effet de serre (GES), la notion de « facteur 4 », soit, à l’horizon 2050, la division par 4 des émissions de GES par rapport au niveau de 1990. Alors que se prépare la COP21 (Paris, décembre 2015) et que la France et l’Europe renouvellent leurs engagements en ce sens, quel bilan peut-on tirer de cette politique très volontariste ?
    Keywords: réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre,facteur 4 en France,évaluation des politiques publiques
    Date: 2015
  12. By: Zongjun Tan (LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - UP7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Peter Tankov (LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 - UP7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: We study the optimal trading policies for a wind energy producer who aims to sell the future production in the open forward, spot, intraday and adjustment markets , and who has access to imperfect dynamically updated forecasts of the future production. We construct a stochastic model for the forecast evolution and determine the optimal trading policies which are updated dynamically as new forecast information becomes available. Our results allow to quantify the expected future gain of the wind producer and to determine the economic value of the forecasts.
    Keywords: wind energy,forecasts,optimal trading policies,stochastic control
    Date: 2016–07–25
  13. By: Akiko Iimura and Jeffrey Scott Cross
    Abstract: Four years after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, a future portfolio of the electrical power generation mix was finally and officially determined by the Japanese Government. Opposition to nuclear power generation remains high in the Japanese public to accept the need for nuclear power given the potential for a nuclear accident in the future. In this paper, we introduce an Analytical Hierarchy Process model to evaluate the influence of two opposing risk perceptions relating to public opinion versus scientific risk measures related to the electrical generation mix. This study revealed that opposing viewpoints on safety results in choosing different generation mixes. It should be noted that the public in large chooses the nuclear-free preference that actually results in a higher number of human fatalities in the energy sector because of the statistically low accident rate in the nuclear energy generation sector, which is contrary to public sentiment in Japan.
    Keywords: Hierarchical decision model, electrical power generation mix, safety, risk perception, Japan
    Date: 2016–10–11
  14. By: Mouez Fodha (PSE - Paris School of Economics, LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UO - Université d'Orléans)
    Abstract: This article analyzes the long-term consequences of nuclear waste storage within a general equilibrium framework. The objective is to determine the conditions for which the storage of waste, and thus the transfer of externalities towards the future, can be optimal. These conditions could explain the implementation of intergenerational externalities, justifying an intertemporal Not In My Back Yard behaviour. We first show that the choice of the policy instruments determines the feasibility of the storage policy. Indeed, economic stability imposes precise levels of the rate of storage or of the tax rate, making it possible to avoid chaotic economic dynamics. Under these specific conditions, and depending on the period at which an accident may occur and on the value of the social discount rate, we show that storing all the nuclear waste may be optimal.
    Keywords: Q58,Q53,Overlapping Generations Model,Nuclear Waste,Environmental Externalities JEL Classifications: O13
    Date: 2015
  15. By: Lunn, Pete; Bohacek, Marek
    Abstract: Two laboratory studies investigated the effect of price transparency on consumers’ decision-making in the residential electricity market. The first tested whether consumers have difficulties when confronted with unit prices expressed as discounts from standard rates, which vary between suppliers. Results showed that consumers were much more likely to choose packages with low unit prices when unit prices were presented explicitly rather than as discounts. When discounts were described as percentages, consumers’ decisions were also less accurate. The second study pre-tested the likely impact of a potential mandatory “estimated annual bill” (EAB) on marketing material, calculated for a customer with average usage. Results demonstrated that consumers were more likely to judge value according to unit prices when an EAB appeared on advertisements. Moreover, when unit prices were communicated via an EAB rather than a discount, consumers chose lower unit price offerings and were more precise in their decision-making. The findings suggest that the EAB is likely to be beneficial for consumers’ decision-making.
    Date: 2016–10
  16. By: Gaël Giraud (PSE - Paris School of Economics, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, The Shift Project - Redesigning the Economy to Achieve Carbon Transition); Zeynep Kahraman (The Shift Project - Redesigning the Economy to Achieve Carbon Transition)
    Abstract: Except for specialized resource economics models, economics pays little attention to the role of energy in growth. This paper highlights basic difficulties behind the mainstream analytical arguments for this neglect, and provides an empirical reassessment of this role. We use an error correction model in order to estimate the long-run dependency ratio of output with respect to primary energy use in 33 countries between 1970 and 2011. Our findings suggest that this dependency is much larger than the usual calibration of output elasticity with respect to energy. This strong dependency is robust to the choice of various samples of countries and subperiods of time. In addition, we show that energy and growth are cointegrated and that primary energy consumption univocally Granger causes GDP growth. The latter confirms and extends the results on cointegration and causality between energy consumption and growth already obtained in Stern (2010)
    Abstract: Hormis les modèles spécialisés dans les ressources naturelles, l'économie accorde peu d'attention au rôle de l'énergie dans la croissance. Ce papier met en lumière certaines difficultés élémentaires relatives aux arguments analytiques mainstream qui légitiment cette négligence, et propose une réévaluation empirique de ce rôle. Nous utilisons un modèle à correction d'erreur afin d'estimer la dépendance de long terme de l'output vis-à-vis de l'usage d'énergie primaire dans 33 pays entre 1970 et 2011. Nos résultats suggèrent que cette dépendance est bien supérieure à ce qu'implique la calibration usuelle de l'élasticité de l'output vis-à-vis de l'énergie. Cette forte dépendance est robuste au choix de multiples échantillons de pays et de sous-périodes d'analyse. De surcroît, nous montrons que la consommation d'énergie et la croissance sont cointégrés et que la première cause la seconde, au sens de Granger, de manière univoque. Ceci confirme et étend les résultats obtenus par Stern (2010).
    Keywords: dependency ratio,output elasticity,energy,energy efficiency,error correction model,ratio de dépendance,élasticité de l'output,énergie,efficacité énergétique,modèle à correction d'erreur
    Date: 2014–12
  17. By: Mohamad Taghvaee, Vahid; Mavuka, Clever; Khodaparast Shirazi, Jalil
    Abstract: Iran experiences a high level of energy consumption which is threatening not only economically but also politically and environmentally. This study aims to estimate the relationship between the economic growth with the various kinds of energies, non-hydroelectric, renewable, non-renewable, and total energies in Iran during 1967–2012, using an autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) model. The results show the ineffective relationship between the economic growth and energy consumption in Iran, considering non-hydroelectric energy, renewable energy, non-renewable energy, and total energy, one by one as the energy proxy. It implies the ineffectiveness of both the quantitative and qualitative deflationary policies over the energy sector. In another word, neither decreasing energy consumption nor changing energy portfolio affects the economic growth. Therefore, the policy makers are advised to formulate those policies which reduce the quantity of energy consumption or increase the segment of renewable energies in the portfolio of energy consumption because they do not lead to the considerable negative consequence on the economic growth, while they increase both the environmental quality and energy security.
    Keywords: Economic growth; Energy consumption; Renewable energies; Non-renewable energies; Iran
    JEL: Q4
    Date: 2016
  18. By: Yildiz, Özgür
    Abstract: The German energy sector’s transition toward the more distributed production of energy has given rise to various forms of decentralized energy production. Within the framework of decentralized infrastructure, the relation between the involved agents is often characterized by a high degree of social proximity. Thus, the spatial and social closeness usually emphasizes aspects of decision-making such as pro-social behavior that can have significant effects on the involved parties’ response to agency problems and their investment incentives. This essay applies behavioral economics’ finding on so-called social preferences to fundamental insights from incomplete contract theory regarding economic agents’ investment behavior. Specifically, it will be analyzed how a contractor’s investment incentives develop in a public-private partnership setting given incomplete contracts when the contractor disposes of preferences for distributional fairness. It will be shown that the investment incentives of the contractor are significantly different from those of the standard model assuming neoclassical preferences. Another important finding is that in contrast to the standard model in which only the allocation of property rights can set different investment incentives, payments can also influence an economic agent’s behavior when social preferences apply as the distribution of payments determines whether the psychological influences of envy or a sense of guilt are affecting the contractor.
    Keywords: Incomplete contracts; public-private partnerships; fairness; social preferences; behavioral economics
    JEL: D02 D03 D23 L2 L32
    Date: 2016–10–13
  19. By: Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Ýsmail H. Gençb (Department of Economics School of Business Management American University of Sharjah)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of crude oil price movements on the stock markets of Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) countries using weekly data for the period of February 2, 1994-February 26, 2010.
    Keywords: Oil Price; Stock Market; Gulf Corporation Council (GCC) countries;Markov Switching Model; Time-Varying Granger-causality
    JEL: E44 Q43 C32
    Date: 2016–06
  20. By: Vugar Ahmadov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Shaig Adigozalov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Salman Huseynov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Fuad Mammadov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic); Vugar Rahimov (Central Bank of Azerbaijan Republic)
    Abstract: In this study, we investigate relative performance of various non-linear models against that of an autoregressive model in forecasting future inflation. We find that non-linear models have trivial forecast superiority over the univariate autoregressive model in terms of central forecast accuracy. They also perform poorly when their forecasts are measured against those of the 3 variables VAR model. In addition, we also show that non-linear models cannot beat the random walk in terms of central forecast accuracy which is in line with the previous literature on Azerbaijan during the post-oil boom years. However, we also demonstrate that non-linear models still have clear forecast advantage over both linear and random walk models in predicting forecast density.
    Keywords: Forecasting, Bayesian methods, Non-linear models
    JEL: C11 C13 C32 C53
    Date: 2016–04–06
  21. By: Sylvain Leduc; Kevin Moran; Robert J. Vigfusson
    Abstract: We show that a model where investors learn about the persistence of oil-price movements accounts well for the fluctuations in oil-price futures since the late 1990s. Using a DSGE model, we then show that this learning process alters the impact of oil shocks, making it time-dependent and consistent with the muted impact oil-price changes had on macroeconomic outcomes during the early 2000s and again over the past two years. The Spring 2008 increase in oil prices had a larger impact because market participants considered that it was likely driven by permanent shocks.
    Date: 2016–10–06
  22. By: Verónica Acurio Vásconez (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Gaël Giraud (PSE - Paris School of Economics, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Florent Mc Isaac (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ngoc-Sang Pham (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The economic implications of oil price shocks have been extensively studied since the 1970s'. Despite this huge literature, no dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was available that captures two well-known stylized facts: 1) the stagflationary impact of an oil price shock, together with 2) the influence of the energy productivity of capital on the depth and length of this impact. We build, estimate and simulate a New-Keynesian model with capital accumulation, which takes the case of an economy where oil is imported from abroad, and where these stylized facts can be accounted for. Moreover, the Bayesian estimation of the model on the US economy (1984-2007) suggests that the output elasticity of oil might have been above 10%, stressing the role of oil use in US growth at this time. Finally, our simulations confirm that an increase in energy efficiency significantly attenuates the effects of an oil shock —a possible explanation of why the third oil shock (1999-2008) did not have the same macro-economic impact as the first two ones.
    Abstract: Les conséquences économiques des chocs pétroliers ont été très étudiés depuis les années 1970. En dépit d'une abondante littérature, aucun modèle d'équilibre général dynamique stochastique n'était à ce jour disponible, qui captura les deux faits stylisés bien connus suivants : 1) l'impact stagflationniste d'un choc sur le prix du pétrole et 2) l'influence de la productivité énergétique du capital sur la profondeur et la longueur du dit impact. Nous construisons, estimons et simulons un modèle Néo-keynésien avec accumulation du capital, adapté à une économie importatrice de pétrole, où ces faits stylisés peuvent être retrouvés. De plus, l'estimation bayésienne du modèle sur les données des Etats-Unis (1984-2007) suggère que l'élasticité d'output du pétrole pourrait être supérieure à 10%, soulignant le rôle du pétrole dans la croissance des Etats-Unis sur cette période. Enfin, nos simulations confirment qu'une augmentation de l'efficacité énergétique atténue de manière significative les effets du choc —ce qui livre une explication possible au fait que le troisième choc pétrolier (1999-2008) n'a pas eu le même impact macro-économique que les deux premiers.
    Keywords: New-Keynesian model,DSGE,oil,capital accumulation,stagflation,energy productivity,productivité énergétique,modèle néo-keynesien,équilibre général dynamique stochastique,pétrole,accumulation du capital
    Date: 2014–12
  23. By: KUROZUMI, Eiji; SKROBOTOV, Anton
    Abstract: In this paper, we propose constructing confidence sets for a break date in cointegrating regressions by inverting a test for the break location, which is obtained by maximizing the weighted average of power. It is found that the limiting distribution of the test depends on the number of I(1) regressors whose coefficients sustain structural change and the number of I(1) regressors whose coefficients are fixed throughout the sample. By Monte Carlo simulations, we then show that compared with a confidence interval developed by using the existing method based on the limiting distribution of the break point estimator under the assumption of the shrinking shift, the confidence set proposed in the present paper has a more accurate coverage rate, while the length of the confidence set is comparable. By using the method developed in this paper, we then investigate the cointegrating regressions of Russian macroeconomic variables with oil prices with a break.
    Keywords: Confidence interval, structural change, cointegration, Russian economy, oil price
    JEL: C12 C21
    Date: 2016–09
  24. By: Ondrej Filip; Karel Janda; Ladislav Kristoufek; David Zilberman
    Abstract: We examine co-movements between biofuels and a wide range of commodities and assets in the US, Europe, and Brazil. We analyze a unique dataset of 33 commodities and relevant assets (between 2003 and 2016) which is unprecedented in the biofuels literature. We combine the minimum spanning trees correlation filtration to detect the most important connections of the broad analyzed system with continuous wavelet analysis which allows for studying dynamic connections between biofuels and relevant commodities and assets and their frequency characteristics as well. We confirm that for the Brazilian and US ethanol, their respective feedstock commodities lead the prices of biofuels, and not vice versa. This dynamics remains qualitatively unchanged when controlling for the influence of crude oil prices. As opposed to the Brazilian and US ethanol, the European biodiesel exhibits only moderate ties to its production factors. We show that financial factors do not significantly interact with biofuel prices.
    Keywords: biofuels, prices, minimum spanning tree, wavelet coherence
    JEL: C22 C38 Q16 Q42
    Date: 2016–10
  25. By: Edward L. Glaeser; Giacomo A. M. Ponzetto; Andrei Shleifer
    Abstract: A central challenge in securing property rights is the subversion of justice through legal skill, bribery, or physical force by the strong—the state or its powerful citizens—against the weak. We present evidence that the less educated and poorer citizens in many countries feel their property rights are least secure. We then present a model of a farmer and a mine which can pollute his farm in a jurisdiction where the mine can subvert law enforcement. We show that, in this model, injunctions or other forms of property rules work better than compensation for damage or liability rules. The equivalences of the Coase Theorem break down in realistic ways. The case for injunctions is even stronger when parties can invest in power. Our approach sheds light on several controversies in law and economics, but also applies to practical problems in developing countries, such as low demand for formality, law enforcement under uncertain property rights, and unresolved conflicts between environmental damage and development.
    Keywords: Property Rights, Subversion, Liability, Injunction
    JEL: K11 O17 P14
    Date: 2016–09
  26. By: Timothy Halliday (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii); John Lynham (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii); Aureo de Paula (UCL, S~aoPauloSchoolofEconomics)
    Abstract: The negative consequences of long-term exposure to particulate pollution are well established but many studies find no effect of short-term exposure on health outcomes. The high correlation of industrial pollutant emissions complicates the estimation of the impact of individual pollutants on health. In this study, we use emissions from Kilauea volcano, which are uncorrelated with other pollution sources, to estimate the impact of pollutants on local emergency room (ER) admissions and a precise measure of costs. A one standard deviation increase in particulates leads to a 23-36% increase in expenditures on ER visits for pulmonary outcomes, mostly among the very young. Even in an area where air quality is well within the safety guidelines of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, this estimate is much larger than those in the existing literature on the short term effects of particulates. No strong effects for cardiovascular outcomes are found.
    Keywords: Pollution, Health, Volcano, Particulates, SO2
    JEL: H51 I12 Q51 Q53
    Date: 2016–09
  27. By: Thanh Le (The University of Queensland [Brisbane]); Cuong Le Van (VCREME - VanXuan Center of Research in Economics, Management and Environment - VanXuan Center of Research in Economics, Management and Environment, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IPAG Business School)
    Abstract: Upon introducing natural resources, both renewable and non-renewable, into an endogenous growth framework with R&D, this paper derives the transitional dynamics of an economy towards its long-run equilibrium. Using the Euler - Lagrange framework, this paper has succesfully figured out the optimal paths of the economy. It then shows the existence and uniqueness of a balanced growth path for each type of resources. The steady state is shown to be of a saddle point stability. Along the balanced growth path, it is found that a finite size resource sector coexists with other continuously growing sectors. The paper then examines long-run responses of the economy to various changes pertaining to innovative production condition, resource sector parameters as well as rate of time preference. It also shows that positive long-run growth will be sustained regardless the type of resources used.
    Keywords: transitional dynamics,natural resources,vertical innovation,R&D-based growth
    Date: 2014–10
  28. By: Lucas Bretschger (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
    Abstract: The paper develops an integrated baseline model to assess the trade-offs be- tween the natural environment and economic growth. Consumption growth is considered under welfare and sustainability aspects. The framework features capital accumulation and the sectoral structure of the economy as key elements to cope with resource scarcity and pollution. Model extensions varying the num- ber of sectors and inputs, changing central functional forms, and introducing poor input substitution and population growth are presented. The setup high- lights the dual role of used inputs as a source of environmental problems and a part of the solution; it also discusses uncertainty and momentum effects. The paper concludes that the environment and economic growth can be compatible but that small deviations from the optimal paths my entail unsustainable de- velopment. Critical issues for sustainability are insufficient foresight, increasing damage intensity, and suboptimal policy making while population growth and poor input substitution are not necessarily precarious for future development.
    Keywords: Natural environment, endogenous growth, multisector model, poor substitution, population growth
    JEL: Q43 O47 Q56 O41
    Date: 2016–10
  29. By: Audi, Marc; Ali, Amjad
    Abstract: This study has investigated the impact of energy consumption, financial development, economic development, population density and secondary school education on environmental degradation in Lebanon over the period of 1974 to 2014. ADF unit root test and ARDL bound test method of co-integration have been used for empirical analysis. The results show that energy consumption, financial development and population density have positive and significant relationship with environmental degradation in Lebanon. The results show that economic development has positive but insignificant relationship with environmental degradation. The results show that secondary school education has negative and significant relationship with environmental degradation in Lebanon. The estimated results show that for reducing environmental degradation, the Lebanese government should increase energy efficient methods of production as well as increase the educational level.
    Keywords: economic development, population density, environmental degradation
    JEL: O1 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2016
  30. By: Halkos, George; Papageorgiou, George
    Abstract: In this paper we consider a dynamic nonzero-sum game between the polluting firms and the authorities. Although the proposed game is not easily solvable for the feedback case, i.e., it is not the linear quadratic case of game and not a degenerated case, we calculate explicitly a stationary feedback equilibrium. In the proposed game the regulator has the ability to turn the optimal allocation of their efforts between abatement and taxation of the polluting firms. During the game, the regulator’s criterion is the minimization of the total discounted costs, while the criterion of the polluting firms is their utility maximization. Next, sensitivity analyses regarding the efficiency parameters of both players are provided. The conclusions are that a farsighted regulator should put much effort in abatement measures (instead of taxation measures) as well as in the improvement of abatement efficiency.
    Keywords: Differential games; Feedback equilibrium; Taxation; Pollution abatement.
    JEL: C61 C62 C7 H21 Q50 Q52 Q58
    Date: 2016–10
  31. By: Dragan Ilic (University of Basel, Switzerland); Janick Christian Mollet (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
    Abstract: The rationale of voluntary corporate initiatives is often explained with anticipation of future regulation. We test this hypothesis for the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) and the Climate Leaders (CL), two popular voluntary US environmental programs to curb carbon emission that were operating during a decisive regulatory event. In 2009 the Waxman-Markey Bill surprisingly passed the House of Representatives and brought the US economy a big step closer to a nationwide CO2 emission trading system. In an event study we assess how the stock market adjusted prices when the likelihood of CO2 regulation unexpectedly increased. We develop a simple model to investigate the empirical results. Our findings suggest that only membership in the CCX was considered beneficial, an initiative whose market oriented design happened to dovetail with the bill’s. Earlier stock market reactions to membership announcements in these voluntary programs paint a complementary picture. But membership alone cannot account for the entire price adjustments. Our results show that a substantial part of the market reaction can be traced back to industry-wide effects.
    Keywords: Voluntary markets, permit markets, climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, CO2, corporate social responsibility, shareholder wealth
    JEL: G38 Q53 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2016–10
  32. By: Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (CIRED, Ecole des PontsParisTech); Céline Guivarch (CIRED)
    Abstract: We extend the canonical dynamic game of global warming to capture three stylized facts: (i) while most countries are expected to suffer damages, some might enjoy short-term benefits; (ii) countries’ exposure to impacts bears little relation to their mitigation capabilities; (iii) some adaptation technologies, such as air conditioning, may exacerbate warming. These sources of asymmetry add free driving to the classical free riding problem. This opens up possibilities for excessive mitigation in a non-cooperative regime, even though damages outweigh benefits. Moreover, it restricts the possibilities of Pareto improvements without transfers. Finally, it can provide a rationale for differentiating Pigouvian prices across countries.
    Keywords: Differential game, Global warming, Public goods, Mitigation, Adaptation
    JEL: C73 H41 Q54
    Date: 2016–09
  33. By: Anastasia Charalampidou (University of Strathclyde- Business School)
    Abstract: In the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS), private negotiations determine the terms of third party access to infrastructure and often hinder high complexity. Given the fact that the market is vertically integrated, where the infrastructure owners are also developers in their own producing fields, a misalignment of commercial and technical interests is observed. Considering the high capital cost of replicating existing infrastructure, the infrastructure owners, who are natural monopolies within their geographical market, find themselves gaining the bargaining advantage in the negotiations charging in several cases disproportionately high fees. In general, natural monopoly in capital intensive industries is linked with the concept of economies of scale- a situation where one firm can produce the market’s desirable output at a lower average cost comparing to two companies operating in a smaller scale. Therefore, economic literature views competition in the industry as socially undesirable as the existence of a large number of firms would result in needless duplication of capital equipment. Many authors emphasise also the fact that the extensive need for capital is probably the most important exogenous structural barrier. However, although production efficiency arguments suggest that network infrastructure should be provided by a single firm, economic inefficiencies, such as pricing to access, may arise due to unregulated market outcomes creating a case for government intervention in order to ensure that high levels of output grown are achieved. This research work is concerned with the economics of the UKCS oil and gas infrastructure, the ownership of transportation structures and the market inefficiencies under the existing regulatory environment. The issue of third party access is analysed by applying the economics of regulation of natural monopoly to the case of the pipeline transportation infrastructure in the North Sea. The economic and structural challenges the ultra-mature UK basin faces can have a potential negative effect on exploration outcomes not allowing, the full utilisation of the remaining reserves. The issue of access to UKCS infrastructure seems to adversely affect new entrants for undertaking exploration activities. The possibility for government intervention is linked with the maturity of the basin which changes the efficiency of natural monopoly that might require additional supervision. The market of oil and gas infrastructure networks could be efficient for the current participants but unable to attract new entrants. This research aims to analyse the effect of access in oil and gas infrastructure on exploration under the presence of incomplete contracts.
    Keywords: oil and gas industry, pipeline economics, natural monopoly, government intervention
  34. By: Bernard Caillaud (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)); Gabrielle Demange (PSE - Paris School of Economics, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC))
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the joint design of fiscal and cap-and-trade instruments in climate policies under uncertainty. Whether the optimal mechanism is a mixed policy (with some firms subject to a tax and others to a cap-and-trade) or a uniform one (with all firms subject to the same instrument) depends on parameters reecting preferences, production, and, most importantly, the stochastic structure of the shocks affecting the economy. This framework is then used to address the issue of the non-cooperative design of climate regulation systems in various areas worldwide under uncertainty. We characterize the resulting ineficiency, we show how the Pareto argument in favor of merging ETS of different regions is reinforced under uncertainty, and we discuss the non-cooperative design of mixed systems.
    Keywords: climate policies,cap-and-trade mechanisms,emission tax,uncertainty
    Date: 2016–07

This nep-ene issue is ©2016 by Roger Fouquet. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.