nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2016‒10‒09
thirty-six papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Germany’s Energiewende: A Tale of Increasing Costs and Decreasing Willingness-To-Pay By Andor, Mark A.; Frondel, Manuel; Vance, Colin
  2. Nationwide Sustainable Financing Model Structure for Entrepreneurial Solar Photovoltaic Projects By Alsayyed, Nidal; Zhu, Weihang
  3. On the transition from nonrenewable energy to renewable energy By Yacoub Bahini; Cuong Le Van
  4. Neural Network Models of Regulating Natural Capital Funds for Renewable Energy By Alsayyed, Nidal; Zhu, Weihang
  5. Little Green Lies : EURATOM between European Nuclear Integration and World Nuclear Order, 1955-1958 FIntegration, Independence and Proliferation By Shuichi Kawashima
  6. Effect of Power Supply on the performance of Small and Medium Size Enterprises: A comparative analysis between SMEs in Tema and the Northern part of Ghana By Nyanzu, Frederick; Adarkwah, Josephine
  7. Electricity transmission reliability: the impact of reliability criteria By Marten Ovaere; Stef Proost
  8. Barriers to electricity load shift in companies: A survey-based exploration of the end-user perspective By Mark Olsthoorn; Joachim Schleich; Marian Klobasa D
  9. Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting By Jakub Nowotarski; Rafal Weron
  10. Regulatory islanding parameters in battery based solar PV for electricity system resiliency By Alsayyed, Nidal; Zhu, Weihang
  11. Testing Non-Linear Dynamics, Long Memory and Chaotic Behaviour of Energy Commodities By Gencer, Murat; Unal, Gazanfer
  12. Should we extract the European shale gas? The effect of climate and financial constraints By Fanny Henriet; Katheline Schubert
  13. Forecastability and statistical characteristics of aggregate oil and gas investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf b By Lorentzen, Sindre; Osmundsen, Petter
  14. Monetary Policy Rule, Exchange Rate Regime, and Fiscal Policy Cyclicality in a Developing Oil Economy By Algozhina, Aliya
  15. Développement minier et pétrolier et politiques de dépenses publiques au Niger : une analyse en équilibre général calculable dynamique By SANGARE ALKASSOUM Saadatou; Hamadou Daouda Youssoufou
  16. Treating the oil addiction in Kuwait: proposals for economic reform By Hessah Al-Ojayan
  17. Oil and Unemployment in a New-Keynesian Model By Verónica Acurio Vásconez
  18. Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations during the Global Financial Crisis By Sussman, Nathan; Zohar, Osnat
  19. What if oil is less substitutable? A New-Keynesian Model with Oil, Price and Wage Stickiness including Capital Accumulation By Verónica Acurio Vásconez
  20. Securing Property Rights By Glaeser, Edward L; Ponzetto, Giacomo AM; Shleifer, Andrei
  21. The impact of resource efficiency measures on performance in small and medium-sized enterprises By Horbach, Jens
  22. Why is Pollution from U.S. Manufacturing Declining? The Roles of Trade, Regulation, Productivity, and Preferences By Joseph S. Shapiro; Reed Walker
  23. Electoral Incentives and Firm Behavior: Evidence from U.S. Power Plant Pollution Abatement By Matthew Doyle; Corrado Di Maria; Ian Lange; Emiliya Lazarova
  24. Equilibrium and first-best city with endogenous exposure to local air pollution from traffic By Mirjam Schindler; Geoffrey Caruso; Pierre M. Picard
  25. Interfirm Learning Economies in Drilling and Environmental Safety By Michael Redlinger; Ian Lange; Peter Maniloff
  26. Environmental taxation and international trade in a tax-distorted economy By Llop Llop, Maria
  27. The Heterogeneous Effects of Eco-labels on Internalities and Externalities By Sahoo, Anshuman; Sawe, Nik
  28. Why does emissions trading under the EU ETS not affect firms' competitiveness? Empirical findings from the literature By Joltreau, Eugénie; Sommerfeld, Katrin
  29. Can French environmental taxes really turn into green taxes ? By Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline
  30. An approach to identify the sources of low-carbon growth for Europe By Georg Zachmann
  31. Intermediate input linkage and carbon leakage By Zengkai Zhang; ZhongXiang Zhang
  32. Investigating the impact of national income on environmental pollution. International evidence By Barra, Cristian; Zotti, Roberto
  33. Final assessment report: assessment of development account project 12/13 AD: Towards a low carbon economy in Latin America: policy options for energy efficiency and innovation May 2016 By -
  34. Pushing the Tipping in International Environmental Agreements By Lorenzo Cerda Planas
  35. Are China's climate commitments in a post-Paris agreeement sufficiently ambitious? By ZhongXiang Zhang
  36. Domestic politics and the formation of international environmental agreements By Carmen Marchiori; Simon Dietz; Alessandro Tavoni

  1. By: Andor, Mark A.; Frondel, Manuel; Vance, Colin
    Abstract: This paper presents evidence that the accumulating cost of Germany's ambitious plan to transform its system of energy provision - the so-called Energiewende - is butting up against consumers' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for it. Following a descriptive presentation that traces the German promotion of renewable energy technologies since 2000, we draw on two stated-preference surveys conducted in 2013 and 2015 that elicit the households' WTP for green electricity. Two models are estimated, one based on a closed-ended question framed around Germany's target of 35% renewable energy in electricity provision by 2020, and the other on an open-ended format that captures changes in WTP over time. To deal with the bias that typifies hypothetical responses, both models distinguish respondents according to whether they express definite certainty in their reported WTP. The results from both models reveal a strong contrast between the households' general acceptance of supporting renewable energy technologies and their own WTP for green electricity.
    Abstract: Dieser Artikel vergleicht die wachsenden Kosten für die Energiewende mit der Zahlungsbereitschaft deutscher Haushalte für grünen Strom. Basierend auf zwei Erhebungen aus den Jahren 2013 und 2015 werden zwei Modelle geschätzt, die einerseits auf einer offenen Frage zur Zahlungsbereitschaft für die Erreichung des 35%-Ziels für das Jahr 2020 basieren und andererseits auf einer Frage mit fest vorgegebenen Werten für die Zahlungsbereitschaft. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen einen starken Kontrast zwischen der generellen Befürwortung der Förderung erneuerbarer Energien und der Zahlungsbereitschaft für grünen Strom.
    Keywords: certainty approach,energy policy,willingness-to-pay
    JEL: D12 Q21 Q41
    Date: 2016
  2. By: Alsayyed, Nidal; Zhu, Weihang
    Abstract: Entrepreneurs in the U.S. solar photovoltaic market businesses operate in fragile institutional settings, which can imply passive ownership and lending based mechanisms by the conduct of the public utility commissions, funding structure of many financial institutions; and associated State and federal environmental policies. In some States (e.g., Nevada), the anti-solar rulings is politicized, and the main risk relates to job losses and less solar projects. In other States (like California) this kind of risk is much lower; nevertheless the financing policies are damaging over the long run, and the lending options are not fit for a sustainable industry. The consequence of the latter for entrepreneurs and project owners is that they are more likely to lobby the government for debt subsidies rather than risk sharing activities. The authors illustrate the current financing approach by focusing on the Clean Renewable Energy Bonds (CREB) in many States nationwide relative to our proposed solar investment certificates model. The paper highlight a tangible and intangible economic exchange activity, and productive financing structure that creates a sustainable economy through a reasonable level of uncertainty in the distribution of subsidies. We present the sustainable metrics and essential stakeholders behind the possible flourishing of such structure. The proposed model will differ among different renewable technology sectors compared with other sectors. Moreover; the paper theorizes that while the performance of utility companies is more affected than the performance of small and medium companies, the impact of federal-induced incentive’s on small companies is actually less obvious. Our framework analysis, based on thousands of databases on utility companies and solar regulatory policies, takes advantage of the regional diverseness across the United States.
    Keywords: Sustainable Investment Certificates (SIC); Solar Photovoltaic; Clean Bonds
    JEL: P28 Q42 Q47
    Date: 2016–06–14
  3. By: Yacoub Bahini (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Cuong Le Van (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics, VCREME - VanXuan Center of Research in Economics, Management and Environment - VanXuan Center of Research in Economics, Management and Environment, IPAG - Business School)
    Abstract: In this paper we use the CMM model (Chakravorty et al., 2006) in discrete time and obtain more results concerning the exhaustion time of Non-Renewable Resource (NRE), the dynamic regimes of energy prices, of the stocks of pollution. We show that NRE is exhausted in finite time and is directly influenced by the initial stock of NRE and the costs of NRE and RE. Higher is the initial stock of NRE, far is the time of exhaustion of NRE. Higher is the cost of NRE (resp. the difference of unit costs between RE and NRE), far is the time of exhaustion of NRE. Furthermore, we show that the abatement intervenes, when necessary, not more than two periods. We also show that, when the unit extraction cost of RE is not very high, the stocks of emissions will never be binding if and only if, the initial stock of NRE is less than a critical value.
    Keywords: dynamic optimization,natural resources,energetic transition,environment
    Date: 2015–05
  4. By: Alsayyed, Nidal; Zhu, Weihang
    Abstract: Natural Capital (NC) is the limited form of capital assets or service (tangible or intangible) that satisfies basic and social conditions for human existence and protection The aim of this paper is twofold; First we examine and test empirically the conventional financing models and discuss their performance in regulating the financing structure of NC funds using a parametric estimating approach Generalized Moments Method (GMM). Second we estimate the NC dynamics using a nonparametric approach Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Two neural network models are proposed. The first model uses spreads between interest rates of 10 different maturities as the only explanatory variables of interest rate changes relative to renewable energy funding structure. The second model introduces two factors, spreads and interest rates’ levels. Using historical U.S. Treasury bill rates, Treasury bond yields, and renewable energy financing bond; we compare the ability of each model to predict the most economical structure of NC. Data are daily and cover the period from January 3rd 2005 to December 29th 2015. Results suggest that, neural network models generate different NC yield curves. Neural network models outperform the parametric standard models. The most successful forecast is obtained with the two factors neural network model.
    Keywords: Neural Network; Natural Capital; Interest rate.
    JEL: C45 P28 Q42
    Date: 2016–08–09
  5. By: Shuichi Kawashima (Meiji University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the historical process by which European Atomic Community (EURATOM) was established and gained its institutional functions. Special attention is paid to how EURATOM was placed in the Nuclear World Order which was being established gradually from 1950s to 1960s. EURATOM is the predecessor of one of the organizations which consists today fs EU still plays certain roles today. However, whereas the EEC, established simultaneously as EURATOM, succeed in providing the foundations of today fs EU, this atomic Community rapidly lost its raison d'etre and is today almost forgotten. What was EURATOM? This paper scrutinize establishment of EURATOM, based on unpublished multi-archival materials, putting it in the context of global nuclear order in broader sense which include regime of peaceful use of nuclear energy and military alliance such as NATO whose strategy depended on nuclear weapons, rather than of European integration. EURATOM turns out to be a kind of an air-pocket whilst Europe pursued cooperation and independence simultaneously with the United States.
    Date: 2016–10
  6. By: Nyanzu, Frederick; Adarkwah, Josephine
    Abstract: Electricity provision in Ghana has been marred by low generation, poor supply and frequent power outages. The situation compel firms to adopt strategies to cope with this poor public supply of power for their business. To this end, this study analysed the effect of power supply on the performance of SMEs: a comparative analysis between two regions in Ghana where Small and Medium firms are located. The study uses the current World Bank 2013 Enterprise Survey on Ghana which consist of 710 firms. The study employs both chi-square and t-test to do pattern analysis. In addition, ordinary regression analysis (OLS) was employed to regress firm performance variable on electricity supply variable and other covariates. The results show that, the presence of power outages, thus, the number of times power outages experienced and hours of power outages negatively affected firms performance (profitability). In addition, it was further realized that power outages (power interruptions) severely affects SMEs located in the Northern part of Ghana than SMEs located elsewhere. The study therefore recommends that government should implement policies and programs such as power mix approach and renewable energy and bring in private sector participation to install competition and efficiency. This is in the interest to mitigate the unreliable electricity supply. Also, SMEs should consider alternative sources of power such as solar power, inverter, biogas, generators, which would help curb the cost power outage brings to their production and to boost output.
    Keywords: Medium and Small Scale Enterprise, Power Supply, Firm Performance, Ghana.
    JEL: M00 M10 M30
    Date: 2016–10–01
  7. By: Marten Ovaere; Stef Proost
    Date: 2016–09
  8. By: Mark Olsthoorn (MTS - Management Technologique et Strategique - Grenoble École de Management (GEM)); Joachim Schleich (Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University [Blacksburg], MTS - Management Technologique et Strategique - Grenoble École de Management (GEM), Fraunhofer ISI - Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research - Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research); Marian Klobasa D (Fraunhofer ISI - Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research - Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research)
    Abstract: As countries move toward larger shares of renewable electricity, the slow diffusion of active electricity load management should concern energy policy makers and users alike. Active load management can increase capacity factors and thereby reduce the need for new capacity, improve reliability, and lower electricity prices. This paper conceptually and empirically explores barriers to load shift in industry from an end-user perspective. An online survey, based on a taxonomy of barriers developed in the realm of energy efficiency, was carried out among manufacturing sites in mostly Southern Germany. Findings suggest that the most important barriers are risk of disruption of operations, impact on product quality, and uncertainty about cost savings. Of little concern are access to capital, lack of employee skills, and data security. Statistical tests suggest that companies for which electricity has higher strategic value rate financial and regulatory risk higher than smaller ones. Companies with a continuous production process report lower barrier scores than companies using batch or justin- time production. A principal component analysis clusters the barriers and multivariate analysis with the factor scores confirms the prominence of technical risk as a barrier to load shift. The results provide guidance for policy making and future empirical studies.
    Keywords: load management,barriers,load shift
    Date: 2015
  9. By: Jakub Nowotarski; Rafal Weron
    Abstract: Since the inception of competitive power markets two decades ago, electricity price forecasting (EPF) has gradually become a fundamental process for energy companies' decision making mechanisms. Over the years, the bulk of research has concerned point predictions. However, the recent introduction of smart grids and renewable integration requirements has had the effect of increasing the uncertainty of future supply, demand and prices. Academics and practitioners alike have come to understand that probabilistic electricity price (and load) forecasting is now more important for energy systems planning and operations than ever before. With this paper we offer a tutorial review of probabilistic EPF and present much needed guidelines for the rigorous use of methods, measures and tests, in line with the paradigm of 'maximizing sharpness subject to reliability'. The paper can be treated as an update and a further extension of the otherwise comprehensive EPF review of Weron (2014, IJF) or as a standalone treatment of a fascinating and underdeveloped topic, that has a much broader reach than EPF itself.
    Keywords: Electricity price forecasting; Probabilistic forecast; Reliability; Sharpness; Day-ahead market; Autoregression; Neural network
    JEL: C22 C32 C51 C53 Q47
    Date: 2016–09–25
  10. By: Alsayyed, Nidal; Zhu, Weihang
    Abstract: Distributed battery based solar power photovoltaic (PV) systems have the potential to supply electricity during grid outages resulting from extreme weather or other emergency situations. As such, distributed PV can significantly increase the resiliency of the electricity system. In order to take advantage of this capability, however, the PV systems must be designed with regulatory parameters in mind and combined with other technologies, such as smart energy storage and auxiliary generation. Strengthening policy and regulatory support could encourage deployment of PV systems designed for resiliency and improve public safety to power during emergencies. This paper specifies the goals of power resiliency and explains the reasons that most distributed PV systems as installed today in the United States are technically incapable of providing consumer power during a grid outage. It presents the basics and regulatory parameters of designing distributed PV systems for resiliency, including the use of energy storage and Microgrids. The paper concludes with critical policy and regulatory considerations for encouraging the use of these distributed system designs.
    Keywords: Distributed power generation; Photovoltaic systems; Microgrids; Auxiliary transmitters; islanding detection.
    JEL: R2 R28
    Date: 2016–05–13
  11. By: Gencer, Murat; Unal, Gazanfer
    Abstract: This paper contains a set of tests for nonlinearities in energy commodity prices. The tests comprise both standart diagnostic tests for revealing nonlinearities. The latter test procedures make use of models in chaos theory, so-called long-memory models and some asymmetric adjustment models. Empirical tests are carried our with daily data for crude oil, heating oil, gasoline and natural gas time series covering the period 2010-2015. Test result showed that there are strong nonlinearities in the data. The test for chaos, however, is weak or nonexisting. The evidence on long memory (in terms of rescaled range and fractional differencing) is somewhat stronger altough not very compelling.
    Keywords: Energy commodities, Lyapunov exponents, Correlation dimension, chaos, long memory
    JEL: C15 C58 C63
    Date: 2016
  12. By: Fanny Henriet (PSE - Paris School of Economics, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Katheline Schubert (PSE - Paris School of Economics, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: In the context of the deep contrast between the shale gas boom in the United States and the recent ban by France of shale gas exploration, this paper explores whether climate policy justifies developing more shale gas, taking into account environmental damages, both local and global, and addresses the question of a potential arbitrage between shale gas development and the transition to clean energy. We construct a Hotelling-like model where electricity may be produced by three perfectly substitutable sources: an abundant dirty resource (coal), a non-renewable less polluting resource (shale gas), and an abundant clean resource (solar). The resources differ by their carbon contents and their unit costs. Fixed costs must be paid for shale gas exploration, and before solar production begins. Climate policy takes the form of a ceiling on atmospheric carbon concentration. We show that at the optimum tightening climate policy always leads to bringing forward the transition to clean energy. We determine conditions under which the quantity of shale gas extracted should increase or decrease as the ceiling is tightened. To address the question of the arbitrage between shale gas development and the transition to clean energy, we assume that the social planner has to comply to the climate constraint without increasing energy expenditures. We show that when the price elasticity of electricity demand is low, a binding financial constraint leads to an overinvestment in shale gas and postpones the switch to the clean backstop. We calibrate the model for Europe and determine whether shale gas should be extracted, depending on the magnitude of the local damage, as well as the potential extra amount of shale gas developed because of a financial constraint, and the cost of a moratorium on extraction.
    Keywords: shale gas,global warming,non-renewable resources,energy transition
    Date: 2015–06
  13. By: Lorentzen, Sindre (UiS); Osmundsen, Petter (UiS)
    Abstract: We investigate the potential for statistical forecasting of aggregate oil and gas investment on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). A unique and detailed dataset containing data from 109 different fields on the NCS between 1970 and 2015 was employed. A set of 1080 autoregressive distributed lag models are evaluated pseudo out-of-sample and tested for data mining by utilizing a Diebold-Mariano hypothesis test and the model confidence set procedure by Hansen and Lunde (2011). The main results are as follows. First, we find that it is indeed possible but challenging to outperform the parsimonious random walk benchmark in an out-of-sample environment. Second, lags of investment growth, crude oil price growth and realized volatility is found to be adequate predictors for the investment growth. Finally, there is a clear benefit from re-estimating the models coefficient at every step.
    Keywords: Investment; oil and gas sector; Norwegian Continental Shelf; pseudo out-of-sample forecasting
    JEL: C31 C52 D22 D92 E17 E22 E27 G31
    Date: 2016–10–03
  14. By: Algozhina, Aliya
    Abstract: This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of joint monetary and fiscal policy for a developing oil economy to find an appropriate monetary rule combined with pro-/countercyclical and neutral fiscal stance based on a loss measure. The model captures a set of structural specifics: two monetary instruments–interest rate and foreign exchange interventions, two fiscal instruments–public consumption and public investment, two production sectors–oil and non-oil, and the two types of households–optimizers and rule-of-thumb households. It further includes a Sovereign Wealth Fund, the foreign debt of private sector via collateral constraint, and a world oil price shock. The loss measure is chosen as an equal summation of variances in in ation, output, and real exchange rate to be minimized by Taylor rule’s parameters in a small open economy. The foreign exchange interventions distinguish between managed and exible exchange rate regime. Fiscal policy cyclicality is referred to the oil output response of public consumption and public investment. Impulse response functions to the negative world oil price shock are analyzed at exible and rigid prices.
    Keywords: oil economy, monetary policy, fiscal policy, exchange rate, oil price shock, interventions, SWF
    JEL: E31 E52 E62 E63 F31 F41 H54 H63 Q33 Q38
    Date: 2016–05
  15. By: SANGARE ALKASSOUM Saadatou; Hamadou Daouda Youssoufou
    Abstract: Cette étude analyse les options de dépenses publiques à partir des ressources minières et pétrolières attendues et leurs répercussions sur les variables économiques. Elle se base sur une Matrice de Comptabilité Sociale mise à jour pour l’année 2012, tenant compte de 4 secteurs miniers et pétroliers. Afin d’évaluer les différentes options de dépenses publiques, nous utilisons un modèle d’équilibre général calculable dynamique récursif qui intègre les mécanismes de diffusion des externalités liées aux investissements dans les infrastructures. Nous analysons deux scénarios : l’un dans lequel l’État utilise une partie des recettes générées par l’extraction minière et pétrolière pour investir dans l’infrastructure routière du pays, et le second dans lequel l’État investit dans le secteur agricole. Ces deux scenarios sont comparés à un scénario de référence dans lequel il n’y a aucune intervention de l’État, et donc les ressources générées sont allouées par le marché.
    Keywords: Ressources minières et pétrolières, MEGC, dépenses publiques, investissements en infrastructures
    JEL: C68 J23 O13 Q18
    Date: 2016
  16. By: Hessah Al-Ojayan
    Abstract: In 2015, for the first time in 16 years, Kuwait reported a fiscal deficit of 2.71 billion Kuwaiti Dinars ($9.4 billion). The deficit was exacerbated by weakness in crude prices and mounting supply–demand imbalances in the global oil market. It is critical that Kuwait reacts with a fiscal contingency plan to avoid the uncertainties and volatility of depending primarily on oil to fund government activities. This paper aims to highlight the current economic condition and fiscal needs of Kuwait, as well as to propose a set of potential mitigating strategies for the government to consider.
    JEL: N0
    Date: 2016–09
  17. By: Verónica Acurio Vásconez (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The effects of oil shocks in inflation and growth have been widely discussed in the literature, however few have focused on the impact of oil price increases on unemployment. In order to shed some light on this problem, this paper develops a medium scale Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model (DSGE) that allows for oil utilization in production and consumption as in Acurio-Vásconez (2015); unemployment as in Mortensen & Pissarides (1994); and staggered nominal wage contracting as in Gertler & Trigari (2009). It then analyzes the effects of oil price increases on the economy. The model recovers most of the well-known stylized facts observed after the oil shock in the 2000s'. A sensitivity analysis shows that the reduction of the bargaining power of households to negotiate wage contracts reduces the impact of an oil shock in unemployment, without affecting negatively GDP. However, it also shows that the reduction of bargaining power, together with wage flexibility strongly reduces the increase in unemployment after an oil shock, but causes a decrease in real wages, which reduces household income and affects GDP.
    Abstract: Les effets des chocs pétroliers sur l'inflation et la croissance ont été largement étudiés dans la littérature, cependant peu d'études ont traité l'impact de l'augmentation du prix du pétrole sur le chômage. Afin de faire la lumière sur la question, cet article développe un modèle d'équilibre général dynamique stochastique (DSGE) de taille moyenne où : le pétrole est utilisé en production et consommation comme dans Acurio-Vásconez (2015) ; le chômage est introduit comme dans Mortensen & Pissarides (1994) ; et les salaires nominales sont construits comme dans Gertler & Trigari (2009). On analyse ensuite les effets de l'augmentation du prix du pétrole dans l'économie. Le modèle récupère la plupart des effets stylisés observés après le choc pétrolier des années 2000. L'étude de sensibilité montre que la réduction du pouvoir de négociation salariale des ménages permet d'atténuer l'impact positif du choc pétrolier sur le chômage, sans affecter négativement le PIB. Cependant, il montre aussi que la réduction du pouvoir de négociation ensemble avec la flexibilisation des salaires réduit l'augmentation du chômage après un choc pétrolier, mais il provoque une diminution des salaires réels, ce qui réduit le revenu des ménages et impacte le PIB.
    Keywords: New-Keynesian model,oil,Match & Search models,unemployment,modèle New-Keynésien,DSGE,pétrole,CES,modèles d'appariement,chômage
    Date: 2015–05
  18. By: Sussman, Nathan; Zohar, Osnat
    Abstract: Following the onset of the global financial crisis (2008) we witness a strengthening of the correlation between crude oil prices and medium-term inflation expectations. Using the first principal component of commodity prices as a measure for global aggregate demand, we decompose oil prices into a global demand factor and idiosyncratic factors that include supply side effects and weather conditions. The decomposition of oil prices allows us to show that since the crisis, global five-year breakeven inflation rates react quite strongly to global aggregate demand conditions embedded in oil prices. The result suggests that market participants perceive inflation targeting as either less effective around the effective lower bound or less aggressive when inflation deviates below target. Alternatively, it may be that in recent years monetary authorities have additional considerations such as macro-prudential issues.
    Keywords: anchoring; credibility; inflation expectations; inflation targeting; Monetary policy; oil prices
    JEL: E31 E32 E52 E58
    Date: 2016–09
  19. By: Verónica Acurio Vásconez (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The recent literature on fossil energy has already stated that oil is not perfectly substitutable to other inputs, considering fossil fuel as a critical production factor in different combinations. However, the estimations of substitution elasticity are in a wide range between 0.004 and 0.64. This paper addresses this phenomenon by enlarging the DSGE model developed in Acurio-Vásconez et al. (2015) by changing the Cobb-Douglas production and consumption functions assumed there, for composite Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) functions. Additionally, the paper introduces nominal wage and price rigidities through a Calvo setting. Finally, using Bayesian methods, the model is estimated on quarterly U.S. data over the period 1984:Q1-2007:Q3 and then analyzed. The estimation of oil's elasticity of substitution are 0.14 in production and 0.51 in consumption. Moreover, thanks to the low substitutability of oil, the model recovers and explains four well-known stylized facts after the oil price shock in the 2000's: the absent of recession, coupled with a low persistent increase in inflation rate, a decrease in real wages and a low price elasticity of oil demand in the short run. Furthermore, ceteris paribus, the reduction of nominal wage rigidity amplifies the increase in inflation and the decrease in consumption. Thus in this model more wage flexibility does not seem to attenuate the impact of an oil shock.
    Abstract: La littérature récente sur énergie a déjà établit que le pétrole n'est pas parfaitement substituable aux autres facteurs, en considérant l'énergie fossile comme étant un facteur de production critique en différentes combinaisons. Cependant, les valeurs estimées de l'élasticité de substitution se trouvent dans un large rang, entre 0.004 et 0.64. Cet article évoque ce phénomène en élargissant le modèle DSGE développe en Acurio Vásconez et al. (2015) en modifiant les fonctions de production et consommation supposées Cobb-Douglas par des fonctions à élasticité de substitution constante (CES). Cet article introduit aussi des rigidités de salaire et des prix à la Calvo. Finalement, en utilisant des techniques Bayésiennes, le modèle est estimé sur les données trimestrielles aux Etats-Unis, pour la période 1984:Q1 - 2007:Q3 et après analysé. L'estimation de l'élasticité de substitution du pétrole est 0.14 dans le secteur productif et 0.51 pour les ménages. De plus, grâce à la faible substituabilité du pétrole, ce modèle récupère et explique quatre fait stylisés observés après le choc pétrolier des années 2000 : l'absence de récession, jumelée avec une faible mais persistante augmentation du taux d'inflation, une décroissance des salaires réels et une faible élasticité de prix de la demande de pétrole dans le court terme. En outre, le modèle montre que, ceteris paribus, la réduction de la rigidité des salaires nominales amplifie l'augmentation de l'inflation et la diminution de la consommation. Donc dans ce modèle, plus de flexibilité de salaires ne semble pas atténuer l'impact d'un choc pétrolier.
    Keywords: New-Keynesian model,oil,stickiness,oil substitution,modèle New-Keynésien,DSGE,pétrole,CES,viscosité,substitution du pétrole
    Date: 2015–05
  20. By: Glaeser, Edward L; Ponzetto, Giacomo AM; Shleifer, Andrei
    Abstract: A central challenge in securing property rights is the subversion of justice through legal skill, bribery, or physical force by the strong -the state or its powerful citizens- against the weak. We present evidence that the less educated and poorer citizens in many countries feel their property rights are least secure. We then present a model of a farmer and a mine which can pollute his farm in a jurisdiction where the mine can subvert law enforcement. We show that, in this model, injunctions or other forms of property rules work better than compensation for damage or liability rules. The equivalences of the Coase Theorem break down in realistic ways. The case for injunctions is even stronger when parties can invest in power. Our approach sheds light on several controversies in law and economics, but also applies to practical problems in developing countries, such as low demand for formality, law enforcement under uncertain property rights, and unresolved conflicts between environmental damage and development.
    Keywords: Injunction; Liability; Property rights; Subversion
    JEL: K11 O17 P14
    Date: 2016–09
  21. By: Horbach, Jens
    Abstract: The profitability of green investment is crucial for the diffusion of the resulting technologies but the knowledge about these effects is still limited. Positive performance effects may be based on cost savings stemming from the introduction of cleaner production processes connected with lower material and/or energy use. The present paper empirically analyzes the effects of environmentally active behavior on the performance of a firm. The analysis is based on the 2013 wave of the Eurobarometer data for small and medium-sized firms (SME's). The analysis for SME's seems to be interesting because small firms might be especially affected by the costs of environmental measures as the introduction of resource efficiency measures are costly in the short run. The results of a bivariate probit model show that a high amount in investment in resource efficiency measures triggers the overall performance of the firm. A high selfperceived greenness of the firm and a high share of green employment are positively correlated to performance. In fact, not all measures in improving resource efficiency are connected with positive performance effects: An increased use of renewables leads to a higher performance whereas measures to reduce water consumption are negatively correlated to turnover development.
    Keywords: eco-innovation,bivariate probit model,SME
    JEL: C35 O33 Q55
    Date: 2016
  22. By: Joseph S. Shapiro (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Reed Walker (University of California, Berkeley, IZA, & NBER)
    Abstract: Between 1990 and 2008, air pollution emissions from U.S. manufacturing fell by 60 percent despite a substantial increase in manufacturing output. We show that these emissions reductions are primarily driven by within-product changes in emissions intensity rather than changes in output or in the composition of products produced. We then develop and estimate a quantitative model linking trade with the environment to better understand the economic forces driving these changes. Our estimates suggest that the implicit pollution tax that manufacturers face doubled between 1990 and 2008. These changes in environmental regulation, rather than changes in productivity and trade, account for most of the emissions reductions.
    Keywords: Cap-and-trade, Market-based instruments, NOx Budget Program, Pollution, Productivity, Trade
    JEL: F18 F64 H23 Q56
    Date: 2015–01
  23. By: Matthew Doyle (Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines); Corrado Di Maria (School of Economics, University of East Anglia); Ian Lange (Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines); Emiliya Lazarova (School of Economics, University of East Anglia)
    Abstract: Researchers have utilized the fact that many states have term limits (as opposed to being eligible for re-election) for governors to determine how changes in electoral incentives alter state regulatory agency behavior. This paper asks whether these impacts spill over into private sector decision-making. Using data from gubernatorial elections in the U.S., we find strong evidence that power plants spend less in water pollution abatement if the governor of the state where the plant is located is a term-limited democrat. We show that this evidence is consistent with compliance cost minimization by power plants reacting to changes in the regulatory enforcement. Finally, we show that the decrease in spending has environmental impacts as it leads to increased pollution.
    Keywords: Political Economy, Electoral Incentives, Term Limits, Environmental Policy, Pollution Abatement, Compliance Costs, Power Plants, Water Pollution, Regression Discontinuity
    JEL: H32 H76 Q25 Q53 Q58
    Date: 2016–10
  24. By: Mirjam Schindler (IPSE, Université du Luxembourg); Geoffrey Caruso (IPSE, Université du Luxembourg); Pierre M. Picard (CREA, Université du Luxembourg, CORE Université catholique de Louvain)
    Abstract: Exposure to urban traffic-induced air pollution is a major health concern of cities. This paper analyzes the urban structure when localized pollution exposure arises from commuting traffic and investigates the feedback effect of endogenous pollution on residential choices. The presence of stronger traffic-induced air pollution exposure reduces the geographical extent and the population of cities. Land rents fall with distance from the city center while population densities may be non-monotonic. Cleaner vehicle technolo- gies reduce pollution exposure everywhere, increase population and density everywhere and do not affect the spatial extent of the city. The paper com- pares the urban equilibrium with the first-best. The first-best structure is a less expanded city with higher densities at the center and lower densities at the fringe.
    Keywords: residential choice, traffic-induced air pollution, localized pollution exposure, urban structure
    JEL: R11 R14 R41
    Date: 2016
  25. By: Michael Redlinger (Department of Revenue, State of Alaska); Ian Lange (Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines); Peter Maniloff (Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines)
    Abstract: This paper examines interfirm learning economies in improving productivity and environmental safety in Bakken oil drilling. We distinguish between firms accruing match-specific relationship capital, idiosyncratic match quality, and learning about match quality. We find some evidence that firms do accrue relationship-specific capital which improves firm productivity. However, we do not find evidence that firm or interfirm learning leads to increased environmental safety. We do find evidence that idiosyncratic match quality leads to both higher productivity and improved environmental safety.
    Keywords: Learning, Shale Oil, Drilling, Environmental Accidents
    JEL: L51 L71 Q35 Q53
    Date: 2016–10
  26. By: Llop Llop, Maria
    Abstract: International environmental agreements have met with the reluctance of some countries to accept general commitments aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. While acknowledging the crucial significance of the climate change process, politicians and regulators in some export-oriented countries have argued that pollution measures would have a negative impact on their domestic welfare. Despite the literature having thoroughly analysed those impacts from various points of view, using different methodological approaches, the second-best general equilibrium analysis has not to date been used to analyse the relationship between environmental taxation and trade. This paper fills this gap by presenting a general equilibrium model to examine the welfare effects of taxing a polluting exported good through an explicit representation of the trade relations of the economy in the presence of pre-existing taxes. The results extend the scope of the literature on second-best taxation by demonstrating that trade affects all the traditional welfare components proposed in the previous studies. In addition, trade neutrality on welfare not only depends on partial equilibrium effects but also general equilibrium impacts, involving the ability to replace the distortionary income tax with the new tax and the influence of environmental improvements on the labour-leisure choice. Keywords: environmental taxation; trade-substitution effect; welfare trade neutrality. JEL classification: F18, H21, H23.
    Keywords: Comerç internacional -- Aspectes ambientals, Medi ambient -- Impostos, 339 - Comerç. Relacions econòmiques internacionals. Economia mundial. Màrqueting,
    Date: 2016
  27. By: Sahoo, Anshuman (Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance, Stanford University); Sawe, Nik (Stanford University)
    Abstract: The Energy Star program labels energy efficient goods and has been credited with reducing the external costs of energy consumption. Its social value is nonetheless ambiguous if, in its absence, consumers both over-value and under-value the energy consumption attribute of goods, relative to their economic preferences. The label must perform opposite tasks to guarantee an increase in consumer welfare: it must prompt some individuals to increase their valuation of the energy consumption attribute and others, to decrease it. Otherwise, the program could yield "negative dividends" by inducing losses in individual-level welfare that outweigh externality reductions. We develop a method to quantify the impact of the program on individual-level decision-making behavior and welfare. Using novel data from a stated choice experiment involving light bulbs, we illustrate the potential for negative dividends and that the value of programs such as the Energy Star depends on the choice set available to consumers.
    JEL: D12 H23 Q48
    Date: 2015–03
  28. By: Joltreau, Eugénie; Sommerfeld, Katrin
    Abstract: Environmental policies may have important consequences for firms' competitiveness or profitability. However, the empirical literature shows that hardly any statistically significant effects on firms can be detected for the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). On the basis of existing literature, we focus on potential explanations for why the empirical literature finds hardly any significant competitiveness effects on firms, least not during the first two phases of the scheme (2005-2012). We also reason why the third phase (2013-2020) could reveal similar results. We show that the main explanations for this finding are a large over-allocation of emissions ertificates leading to a price drop and the ability of firms to pass costs onto consumers in some sectors. Cost pass-through, in turn, partly generated windfall profits. In addition, the relatively low importance of energy costs indicated by their average share in the budgets of most manufacturing industries may limit the impact of the EU ETS. Finally, small but significant stimulating effects on innovation have been found so far. These different aspects may explain why the empirical literature does not find significant effects from the EU ETS on firms' competitiveness.
    Keywords: Cap and Trade system,EU ETS,firm-level competitiveness
    JEL: Q52 Q58 D22
    Date: 2016
  29. By: Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: French environmental taxes are not really ecologically oriented. Their main aim is to raise revenues. Clear signs of this inappropriate direction are given by the large share of the energy taxes and by the low level of most tax rates, which for the most part, are only implicit tax rates on the polluting goods. An ecological tax reform would imply a global green tax shift with tax rates proportionate to the marginal damages. The success and the acceptation of such a reform by the taxpayers rely on the chosen recycling mechanism for the tax revenues, on government’s efforts in information and pedagogy, on transparency about the policy choices but also, somehow paradoxically, on audacity of actions.
    Abstract: Actuellement, la fiscalité environnementale française répond moins à une finalité écologique qu’à un objectif plus traditionnel de fiscalité de rendement. Les signes manifestes de cette inadéquation sont la très grande part prise par la fiscalité de l’énergie et le faible niveau de la plupart des taux de taxe, qui souvent ne frappent qu’implicitement les produits polluants. Réformer la fiscalité française supposerait de la « verdir » dans son ensemble en appliquant des taux de taxes en relation avec les dommages marginaux. La réussite de la réforme et son acceptation par les contribuables sont conditionnées par le mécanisme de redistribution associé, les efforts de pédagogie et d’information, la transparence mais aussi, paradoxalement, par l’audace des mesures prises.
    Keywords: environmental tax,double dividend,tax progressivity,progressivité de l’impôt,double dividende,écotaxe,contribution climat-énergie,fiscalité
    Date: 2015–06
  30. By: Georg Zachmann
    Abstract: European policymakers are struggling to identify economic policies that can create new jobs and return their economies to a stable growth path. The aim of this report is to examine how Europe can gain a competitive edge in new products and services with higher value added that can form the basis for future growth and jobs. In light of limited fiscal and political capital, the crucial issue is prioritisation in terms of technologies, regions and policies. Given global decarbonisation concerns, the wide array of low-carbon technologies offers significant growth potential. Some EU countries have already been able to develop a comparative advantage in wind turbines and electric vehicles, though the EU is less effective at exporting solar panels and batteries. Based on patenting activities we, however, see some potential – maybe not for entire countries but for some regions – to further specialise in all of these four low-carbon technologies.
    Date: 2016–09
  31. By: Zengkai Zhang (College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University); ZhongXiang Zhang (College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University)
    Abstract: Climate regulations tend to target energy intensive sectors whose products are widely used in industrial production as intermediate inputs, such as electricity, and the carbon abatement may be partially offset by intermediate input-led leakage. This paper aims to examine the impact of intermediate input linkage on the carbon leakage both theoretically and empirically. We develop a Harberger-type model with an input-output linkage structure, identify four leakage effects and derive closed-form solutions for these leakage effects. For empirical simulation, we build a computable general equilibrium model of China’s economy and introduce Structural Decomposition Analysis to link both the theoretical and empirical models. When imposing a carbon price on the electricity generation sector, our results show significant carbon leakage. Our decomposition analysis further suggests that such leakage is mainly through the production substitution effect, followed by the multiplier effect. Both of the two effects are closely related to the intermediate input linkage, and thus shed some light on the importance of considering sectoral linkage when discussing the carbon leakage issue of climate policies.
    Keywords: carbon leakage; sectoral linkage; climate regulation; general equilibrium model; production substitution effect; multiplier effect
    JEL: Q55 Q58 Q43 Q48 O13 O31 O33 O44 F18
    Date: 2016–09
  32. By: Barra, Cristian; Zotti, Roberto
    Abstract: This paper analyses how national income (per capita real GDP) influences the environmental pollution (per capita CO2 emissions) using a very heterogenous sample composed by 120 countries during the 2000-2009 period. We firstly apply a panel unit root test suggested by Im et al. (2003) in order to examine the stationarity properties of CO2 emissions and GDP and then a two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, paying particular attention to the non-linearity of the national income-environmental pollution relationship, to investigate the existence of a Kuznets curve for CO2 emissions. Preliminary evidence showing the existence of an inverted U-shaped relationship between national income and environmental pollution, validating the Kutznes’s hypothesis, turned out to be measleading once the issue of (non) stationarity has been taken into account. Results also show that as population and industrial output expand, more pressure will be put forth the environment, leading to more emissions, calling for more strict environmental and energy conservation policies.
    Keywords: National income; Environmental pollution; U-shaped relationship; Kutznes’s hypothesis
    JEL: C12 C13 C23 F18 Q51
    Date: 2016–09–29
  33. By: -
    Date: 2016–05
  34. By: Lorenzo Cerda Planas (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper intends to provide an alternative approach to the formation of International Environmental Agreements (IEA). The existing consensus within the literature is that there are either too few signatories or that the emissions of signatories are almost the same as business as usual (BAU). I start from a well-known model (Barrett 1997), adding heterogeneity in countries' marginal abatement costs (low and high) and in damages suffered (or corresponding environmental concern). I also allow for technological transfers and border taxes. I show that using either mechanism one at a time, does not change the results. But if both are used in a strategic manner, a grand (and abating) coalition can be reached, while minimizing transfers.
    Keywords: self-enforcing environmental agreements,border tax,tipping
    Date: 2015–03
  35. By: ZhongXiang Zhang (College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University)
    Abstract: In international climate change negotiations, China’s role is an issue of perennial concern. In particular, the lack of quantitative, absolute emissions commitments from China has been the focus. In line with changing domestic and international contexts, China is recalibrating its stance and strategy. Its participation in international climate change negotiations has evolved from playing a peripheral role to gradually moving to the centre. This article examines China’s stance and role in international climate change negotiations from a historical perspective. In so doing, the article discusses the evolution of international climate negotiations and China’s stance in the lead-up to and at the Paris conference. The focus is now turning to the implementation of the Paris Agreement. The article discusses post-Paris issues in the international context and in particular in China’s context. These affect the post Paris negotiations and hold the key to achieving desired outcomes.
    Keywords: International climate negotiations; Copenhagen accord; Paris agreement; China
    JEL: Q52 Q54 Q58 Q43 Q48 O31 O33 O44
    Date: 2016–09
  36. By: Carmen Marchiori; Simon Dietz; Alessandro Tavoni
    Abstract: We investigate the effect of domestic politics on international environmental policy by incorporating into a classic stage game of coalition formation the phenomenon of lobbying by special-interest groups. In doing so, we contribute to the theory of international environmental agreements, which has overwhelmingly assumed that governments make decisions based on a single set of public-interest motivations. Our results suggest that lobbying on emissions may affect the size of the stable coalition in counterintuitive ways. In particular, a powerful business lobby may increase the government's incentives to sign an agreement, by providing it with strong bargaining power with respect to that lobby at the emission stage. This would result in lower total emissions when the number of countries involved is not too large. We also show that things change radically when lobbying bears directly on the membership decisions, suggesting that both the object and timing of lobbying matter for the way in which membership decisions, emissions and welfare are affected.
    Keywords: game theory; international environmental agreements; lobbying; special interest groups; strategic cooperation
    JEL: C7 H41 K33 Q2 Q54
    Date: 2016–09–25

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