nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2016‒06‒09
47 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. The prospects for smart energy prices: observations from 50 years of residential pricing for fixed line telecoms and electricity By Musiliu O. Oseni; Michael G. Pollitt
  2. Are Smart Meters Being Used Smartly? A Case Study of Residential Electricity Customers in Vermont By Wang, Qingbin; Lewandowski, Samantha
  3. Reduced Tariffs of Net Energy Metering: More Competitive Retail Rates of Electric Utilities Come Next? By Ty, Dyna; Bergstrom, John C.
  4. The long-run equilibrium impact of intermittent renewables on wholesale electricity prices By David Newbery
  5. The Renewable Fuel Standard: Market and Welfare Effects of Alternative Policy Scenarios By Moschini, GianCarlo; Lapan, Harvey; Kim, Hyunseok
  6. Distributional and Welfare Impacts of Renewable Subsidies in Italy By Roberta Distante; Elena Verdolini; Massimo Tavoni
  7. Auktionen als Förderinstrument für erneuerbare Energien: Eine institutionenökonomische Bewertung unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Photovoltaik-Freiflächenausschreibungsverordnung By Bruttel, Franziska; Purkus, Alexandra; Gawel, Erik
  8. Ownership and the Price of Residential Electricity: Evidence from the United States, 1935-1940 By Carl T. Kitchens; Taylor Jaworski
  9. Substitution in electricity generation: A state level analysis of structural change from hydraulic fracturing technology By Elbakidze, Levan; Zaynutdinova, Gulnara
  10. Carbon Prices and Fuel Switching: A Quasi-experiment in Electricity Markets By Huang, Ling; Zhou, Yishu
  11. A VCG Auction for Electricity Storage By Thomas Greve; Michael G. Pollitt
  12. Non-Sequential Search, Competition and Price Dispersion in Retail Electricity By Klaus Gugler; Sven Heim; Mario Liebensteiner
  13. Intraday Markets for Power: Discretizing the Continuous Trading By Karsten Neuhoff; Nolan Ritter; Aymen Salah-Abou-El-Enien; Philippe Vassilopoulos
  14. Flexible Mixed Logit with Posterior Analysis: Exploring Willingness-to-Pay for Grid Resilience By Laura-Lucia Richter; Melvyn Weeks
  15. Market Organization and Productive Efficiency: Evidence from the Texas Electricity Market By Zhang, Yiyuan
  17. Energy Prices, Pass-Through, and Incidence in U.S. Manufacturing* By Sharat Ganapati; Joseph S. Shapiro; Reed Walker
  18. Energy Prices, Pass-Through, and Incidence in U.S. Manufacturing By Ganapati, Sharat; Shapiro, Joseph S.; Walker, Reed
  19. A meta-analysis on the price elasticity of energy demand By Xavier Labandeira; José M.aría Labeaga; Xiral López-Otero
  20. A Roadmap to Enhanced Regional Energy Policy: Cooperation in South East Europe By Dimitrova, Anna; Egenhofer, Christian; Behrens, Arno
  21. Final assessment report. Assessment of Development Account Project 06/07 AM Strengthening national capacities to design and implement sustainable energy policies for the production and use of biofuels in Latin America and the Caribbean By -
  22. Loss Aversion, Temporal Framing, and Household Energy Decisions By Gill, Carrie; Atlas, Stephen; Hardisty, David
  23. The economics of global LNG trade: the case of Atlantic and Pacific inter-basin arbitrage in 2010-2014 By Chi-Kong Chyong; Roman Kazmin
  24. Incorporating Driving Range Variability in Network Design for Refueling Facilities By de Vries, H.; Duijzer, E.
  25. Fuel efficiency improvements – feedback mechanisms and distributional effects in the oil market By Finn Roar Aune; Ann Christin Bøeng; Snorre Kverndokk; Lars Lindholt; Knut Einar Rosendahl
  26. Dutch Disease, Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignments and Their Effect on GDP Growh in the EU By Mariarosaria Comunale
  27. The Ruble between the hammer and the anvil: Oil prices and economic sanctions By Dreger, Christian; Fidrmuc, Jarko; Kholodilin, Konstantin; Ulbricht, Dirk
  28. The Relationship between Commodity Investment Flows and Crude Oil Futures Prices: Real or Spurious? By Yan, Lei; Irwin, Scott H.; Sanders, Dwight R.
  29. Shale Oil Production Expansion and Water-Energy Nexus in North Dakota: A Decentralized Agent-Based Modeling Approach By Lim, Siew Hoon; Lin, Zhulu; Borders, Michael; Lin, Tong
  30. Energy Shock and Price Adjustment: National Brands vs. Private Labels of Retail Milk Products By Xun, Li; Rui, Wang
  31. Boom goes the price: Giant resource discoveries and real exchange rate appreciation By Torfinn Harding; Radoslaw Stefanski; Gerhard Toews
  32. Corporate Hedging In Incomplete Markets: A Solution Under Price Transmission By Luo, Rui; Fortenbery, T. Randall
  33. Identification in Structural Models Linking Energy and Corn Commodity Markets By Pozo, Veronica F.; Bejan, Vladimir
  34. Water, energy, and food Security in the Asia Pacific Region By Makoto Taniguchi; Naoki Masuhara; Kimberly Burnett
  35. The Economics of the Interaction of GMO and Biofuel Policies in the European Union By Venus, Thomas J.; Drabik, Dusan
  36. Trading Food Security for Climate Change Mitigation? The Implications of Renewable Electricity Expansion on US Food Production and Trade By Baker, Justin; Latta, Greg; Jones, Jason; Beach, Robert; Ohrel, Sara; Creason, Jared
  37. The Governance of multi-use platforms at sea for energy production and aquaculture: challenges for policy makers in European seas By Marian Stuiver; Katrine Soma; Phoebe Koundouri; Sander van den Burg; Alwin Gerritsen; Thorbjørn Harkamp; Niels Dalsgaard; Fabio Zagonari; Raul Guanche; Jan-Joost Schouten; Saskia Hommes; Amerissa Giannouli; Tore Söderqvist; Lars Rosen; Rita Garção; Jenny Norrman; Christine Röckmann; Mark de Bel; Barbara Zanuttigh; Ole Petersen; Flemming Møhlenberg
  38. It’s the Society, Stupid! Communicating Emergent Climate Technologies in the Internet Age By Olaf Corry; David Reiner
  39. China’s Pursuit of Environmentally Sustainable Development: Harnessing the New Engine of Technological Innovation By Wei Jin; ZhongXiang Zhang
  40. Policies for a more Dematerialized EU Economy. Theoretical Underpinnings, Political Context and Expected Feasibility By Andrea Bigano; Aleksander Sniegocki; Jacopo Zotti
  41. Emission Leakage: Evidence from the US Multi-plant Firms By cui, jingbo; ji, yongjie
  42. The Effects of Air Pollution on Education and Human Capital: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities in China By Williams, Niall; Zhang, Wei
  43. Taxe environnementale et délégation By Kadohognon Sylvain Ouattara
  44. Рыночные механизмы сокращения выбросов парниковых газов и активности и перспективы России By Bukvić, Rajko
  45. Designing a Climate Agreement for the Reality of Self-interested and Short-term Oriented Nations By Cseh, Arpad
  47. Tipping and reference points in climate change games By Alessandro Tavoni; Doruk Ä°riÅŸ

  1. By: Musiliu O. Oseni; Michael G. Pollitt
    Abstract: This study focuses on how energy and communications have evolved over the last 50 years and what we can learn from history in order to examine the prospects for smart energy pricing by 2050. We begin by discussing the nature of energy and telecoms products and why price discrimination should be expected. We then review various business and pricing strategies that have evolved in the two industries. We find that business models for both the telecoms and energy sectors have changed from the traditional services business model (i.e., offering of calls and messages for telecoms, and utility supply services for energy) to more dynamic, integrated and complex business models. These new business models include the managed services provider model, the bundled services model, and the prosumer business model, among others. Similarly, several changes in pricing structure have evolved. There has been a reduction in the number of distanced-based and increasing time-based price differentiation in fixed line telecoms and the abolition of residential floor area-based differentiation in residential electricity pricing. We conclude with a discussion on how the rollout of the next generation of electricity meters (smart and advanced meters) may further shape electricity pricing in the future.
    Keywords: smart pricing, business models, telecoms, energy, residential, UK
    JEL: L94 L96
    Date: 2016–03–22
  2. By: Wang, Qingbin; Lewandowski, Samantha
    Abstract: Approximately 92% of electricity meters in Vermont, and more than 40% across the United States, have been replaced with smart meters because of their potential for improving grid efficiency and reducing electricity costs, but there is little information regarding efficiency of utilization by electricity customers. In this study, based on data from statewide surveys in Vermont, only 45% of respondents reported having a smart meter and, of those, only 12% indicated that having a smart meter had reduced their electricity use. Findings suggest that consumer education through Extension and other programs is needed for improving the efficacy of smart meters.
    Keywords: smart meter, smart grid, customer education, electricity customer, Vermont, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,
    Date: 2016
  3. By: Ty, Dyna; Bergstrom, John C.
    Abstract: This study seeks to analyze competitiveness in electric rates in the U.S. residential sector under a market-based solar sharing network platform and/or a market-based energy trading platform. We argue that under the solar sharing or trading platform there plausibly exist social welfare gains from economics of distributed generation (DG) of renewable energy among grid-connected, photovoltaic (PV) system households. Thus, in this work, we consider a theoretical analysis framework using a model where grid-connected PV-system households are both simultaneously consumers and producers of electricity.
    Keywords: Net energy metering, Demand and Price Analysis, Industrial Organization, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, L, N, O, Q, Z,
    Date: 2016
  4. By: David Newbery
    Abstract: High levels of low variable cost intermittent renewables lower wholesale electricity prices, and the depression of these prices could legitimately be recovered from consumers, preferably through capacity payments. Given that renewables are frequently subsidized for their learning benefits and carbon reduction, this paper asks what part of these subsidies should be recovered from final consumers. In long-run equilibrium, renewables have no impact on the number of hours peaking capacity runs, and its impact is to displace largely baseload capacity. The fall in competitive prices is considerably less than the fall in fossil operating costs and provides a case for only a modest share of total subsidies to be charged to electricity consumers. The paper quantifies the amount that can legitimately be charged.
    Keywords: renewables, electricity prices, subsidies, investment
    JEL: D47 H23 L94 Q42 Q48 Q54
    Date: 2016–01–05
  5. By: Moschini, GianCarlo; Lapan, Harvey; Kim, Hyunseok
    Abstract: We construct a tractable multi-market equilibrium model designed to evaluate alternative biofuel policies. The model integrates the US agricultural sector with the energy sector, and explicitly consider both US ethanol and biodiesel production. The model provides a careful structural representation of the renewable fuel standard (RFS) policies, and it uses the arbitrage conditions defining the core value of renewable identification number (RIN) prices to identify the relevant competitive equilibrium conditions. The model is parameterized, based on elasticities and technical coefficients from the literature, to represent observed 2015 data. The parameterized model is simulated to analyze alternative scenarios, including: repeal of the RFS; projected 2022 RFS mandates; and, optimal (second best) mandates. The results confirm that the current RFS program considerably benefits the agriculture sector, but also leads to overall welfare gains for the United States (mostly via beneficial terms of trade effects). Implementation of projected 2022 mandates, which would require further expansion of biodiesel production, would lead to a considerable welfare loss (relative to the status quo). Constrained optimal mandates would entail more corn-based ethanol and less biodiesel than in both the status quo and the projected 2022 scenario.
    Keywords: Biofuels, Mandates, Terms of Trade, Welfare, Carbon emissions, Renewable fuel, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, F1, H2, Q1, Q2,
    Date: 2016–05–24
  6. By: Roberta Distante (Maersk Line); Elena Verdolini (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Massimo Tavoni (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Politecnico di Milano)
    Abstract: We empirically assess the distributional impacts and welfare effects of policies to incentivize renewable electricity production for the case of Italy. We use data from the Household Budget Survey between 2000 and 2010 to estimate a demand system in which energy goods' shares of expenditure are modelled using different empirical approaches. We show that the general Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) demand system provides more robust estimates of price elasticities of each composite good than the commonly used Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS). The estimated coefficients are used to perform a welfare analysis of the Italian renewable electricity production incentive policy. We show that different empirical approaches give rise to significantly different estimates of price elasticities and that methodological choices are the reasons for the very high elasticities of substitutions estimated using similar data by previous contributions. We find no evidence of regressivity of the incidence of the Italian renewable incentive scheme in the period under consideration. The renewable subsidies act as a middle-class tax, with the higher welfare losses experienced by households in the second to fourth quintiles of the expenditure distribution.
    Keywords: Energy taxes, Consumer Demand System, Welfare Effects, Equity
    JEL: D12 H22 Q48
    Date: 2016–05
  7. By: Bruttel, Franziska; Purkus, Alexandra; Gawel, Erik
    Abstract: Um die Förderung erneuerbarer Energien nach dem EEG angesichts der zwischenzeitlich erreichten Anteile am Bruttostromverbrauch verstärkt marktorientiert auszugestalten und zugleich den Anforderungen der "Leitlinien für staatliche Umweltschutz- und Energiebeihilfen 2014-2020" der EU-Kommission zu genügen, sieht § 55 EEG 2014 Ausschreibungen als neues Instrument zunächst für PV-Freiflächenanlagen vor. Auf der Grundlage der Verordnungsermächtigung aus § 88 EEG regelt seit Februar 2015 die Freiflächenausschreibungsverordnung (FFAV) im Rahmen einer Pilotphase die Ermittlung der Förderhöhe für Photovoltaik- Freiflächenanlagen. Dieses Modell soll ab 2017 auch für andere Erneuerbare-Energien-Technologien die bisherige administrierte Festlegung der Förderhöhe ersetzen (§ 2 Abs. 5 Satz 1 EEG). Hierzu hat Anfang 2016 das BMWi weiterentwickelte Eckpunkte für eine erneute EEG-Novelle 2016 ("EEG 3.0") vorgelegt. [...]
    Date: 2016
  8. By: Carl T. Kitchens; Taylor Jaworski
    Abstract: In this paper, we quantify the difference between public and private prices of residential electricity immediately before and after major federal reforms in the 1930s and 1940s. Previous research found that public prices were lower in a sample of large, urban markets. Based on new data covering over 15,000 markets and nearly all electricity generated for residential consumption, we find the difference between public and private prices was small in 1935 and negligible in 1940 for typical levels of monthly consumption. These findings are consistent with a market for ownership that helped to discipline electricity prices during this period. That is, private rents were mitigated by the threat that municipalities would use public ownership to respond to constituent complaints and public rents were limited by electoral competition and the growth of private provision.
    JEL: D4 N12
    Date: 2016–05
  9. By: Elbakidze, Levan; Zaynutdinova, Gulnara
    Keywords: Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2016
  10. By: Huang, Ling; Zhou, Yishu
    Keywords: Carbon Emission Market, RGGI, Environmental Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2016
  11. By: Thomas Greve; Michael G. Pollitt
    Abstract: Energy storage seems set to play a key role in managing and balancing the future electricity system. Storage can act as a generator and as a load, providing both energy and ancillary services such as fast frequency response and operating reserve. Therefore, it can provide the desired flexibility for the network. Current mechanism designs do not take advantage of the full potential of a given storage facility and the auctions used to buy and sell potential storage products have design flaws. This paper gives an overview of how storage products are bought and sold today and the problems of the current designs. It then presents a new mechanism design to integrate storage in the most efficient way, based on social welfare.
    Keywords: Electricity storage, interconnectors, auctions
    JEL: D44 D85 Q42
    Date: 2016–04–25
  12. By: Klaus Gugler (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business); Sven Heim (ZEW Centre for European Economic Research and MaCCI Mannheim Centre for Competition and Innovation); Mario Liebensteiner (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of consumer search and competition on pricing strategies in Germany’s electricity retail. We utilize a unique panel dataset on spatially varying search requests at major online price comparison websites to construct a direct measure of search intensity and combine this information with zip code level data on electricity tariffs between 2011 and 2014. The paper stands out by explaining price dispersion by differing pricing strategies of former incumbents and entrant firms, which are distinct in their attributable shares in informed versus uninformed consumers. Our empirical results suggest causal evidence for an inverted U-shape effect of consumer search intensity on price dispersion in a clearinghouse environment as in Stahl (1989). The dispersion is caused by opposite pricing strategies of incumbents and entrants, with incumbents initially increasing and entrants initially decreasing tariffs as a reaction to more consumer search. We also find an inverted U-shape effect of competition on price dispersion, consistent with theoretical findings by Janssen and Moraga-González (2004). Again, the effect can be explained by opposing pricing strategies of incumbents and entrants.
    Keywords: Search, Information, Competition, Price Dispersion, Electricity Retail
    JEL: D43 D83 L11 L13 Q40
    Date: 2016–05
  13. By: Karsten Neuhoff; Nolan Ritter; Aymen Salah-Abou-El-Enien; Philippe Vassilopoulos
    Abstract: A fundamental question regarding the design of electricity markets is whether adding auctions to the continuous intraday trading is improving the performance of the market. To approach this question, we assess the experience with the implementation of the 3 pm local auction for quarters in Germany at the European Power Exchange (EPEX SPOT) in December 2014 to assess the impact on trading volumes/liquidity, prices, as well as market depth. We discuss further opportunities and challenges that are linked with a potential implementation of an intraday auction.
    Keywords: auctions, electricity, empirical analysis, market design
    JEL: C5 C57 C93 D44 D47 L50
    Date: 2016–03–21
  14. By: Laura-Lucia Richter; Melvyn Weeks
    Abstract: This paper presents and employs an alternative approach to explore consumer preferences and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for resilience of the electricity grid. The methodological and practical relevance of this approach is demonstrated using the example of the UKs incentive regulation scheme for electricity distribution network operators (DNOs). The estimation strategy exibly accounts for preference heterogeneity in the population, allows for scale heterogeneity (i.e. heterogeneity in the randomness of choice) and exploits individual posterior distributions to improve the estimates. Since the results suggest significant parameter heterogeneity within and across DNOs, it is argued that Ofgem's current method to evaluate consumer preferences and WTP is likely to result in an inefficient level of resilience services. The welfare implications in case of public and private goods and services are discussed. The suggested approach is straightforward to implement, could improve policy evaluations and foster more nuanced and efficient incentive regulation.
    Keywords: Willingness-to-Pay, electricity service quality, mixed logit, social welfare
    JEL: L98
    Date: 2016–05–10
  15. By: Zhang, Yiyuan
    Abstract: This paper examines the efficiency and environmental impact of market organization in the context of the Texas electricity market. Taking advantage of its transition from a bilaterally trading scheme to a centralized pool, I show that low-cost generators displaced high-cost generators in production. The change in generation pattern supports improved information aggregation about congestion externalities under the centralized market. In the nine months following the transition, the generation cost was reduced by $65 million. The increased carbon dioxide emission, however, substantially offsets the efficiency gain.
    Keywords: Market Design, Electricity Markets, Congestion Externality, Carbon Emissions, Environmental Economics and Policy, Industrial Organization, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, L51, L94, Q41, Q51,
    Date: 2016
    Date: 2016
  17. By: Sharat Ganapati; Joseph S. Shapiro; Reed Walker
    Abstract: This paper studies how increases in energy input costs for production are split between consumers and producers via changes in product prices (i.e., pass-through). We show that in markets characterized by imperfect competition, marginal cost pass-through, a demand elasticity, and a price-cost markup are sufficient to characterize the relative change in welfare between producers and consumers due to a change in input costs. We find that increases in energy prices lead to higher plant-level marginal costs and output prices but lower markups. This suggests that marginal cost pass-through is incomplete, with estimates centered around 0.7. Our confidence intervals reject both zero pass-through and complete pass-through. We find heterogeneous incidence of changes in input prices across industries, with consumers bearing a smaller share of the burden than standards methods suggest.
    JEL: L11 H22 H23 Q40 Q54
    Date: 2016–01
  18. By: Ganapati, Sharat (Yale University); Shapiro, Joseph S. (Yale University); Walker, Reed (University of California, Berkeley)
    Abstract: This paper studies how increases in energy input costs for production are split between consumers and producers via changes in product prices (i.e., pass-through). We show that in markets characterized by imperfect competition, marginal cost pass-through, a demand elasticity, and a price-cost markup are sufficient to characterize the relative change in welfare between producers and consumers due to a change in input costs. We find that increases in energy prices lead to higher plant-level marginal costs and output prices but lower markups. This suggests that marginal cost pass-through is incomplete, with estimates centered around 0.7. Our confidence intervals reject both zero pass-through and complete pass-through. We find heterogeneous incidence of changes in input prices across industries, with consumers bearing a smaller share of the burden than standards methods suggest.
    Keywords: energy prices, incidence, environmental taxation
    JEL: L11 H22 H23 Q40 Q54
    Date: 2016–05
  19. By: Xavier Labandeira (Rede (Universidade de Vigo) and European University Institute); José M.aría Labeaga (Departamento de Análisis Económico (UNED)); Xiral López-Otero (Rede (Universidade de Vigo))
    Abstract: Price elasticities of energy demand have become increasingly relevant in estimating the socio-economic and environmental effects of energy policies or of other events with influence on the prices of energy goods. Since the 1970s a large number of academic papers have provided both short and long-term price elasticity estimates for different countries by using several models, data and estimation techniques. Yet the literature offers a rather wide range of estimates for the price elasticities of demand for energy. This paper quantitatively summarizes the recent, but still sizeable, empirical evidence on this matter to facilitate a sounder economic assessment of energy price changes. It does so by using meta-analysis to identify the main factors affecting the elasticity results, both short and long term, for energy in general as well as for specific products: electricity, natural gas, gasoline, diesel and heating oil.
    Keywords: Keywords: short-term; long-term; electricity; gas; gasoline; diesel; oil
    JEL: C13 C83 Q41
    Date: 2015–12
  20. By: Dimitrova, Anna; Egenhofer, Christian; Behrens, Arno
    Abstract: Regional Energy Policy Cooperation has now gained political traction in the EU as a tool to advance the EU’s energy objectives. Cooperation and coordination is meant to facilitate the convergence of markets and policies, so while the creation of one EU Internal Energy Market remains the goal, regional cooperation is the tool with which to achieve that goal. Cooperation could become the stepping-stone towards the completion of the Internal Energy Market within the European 2030 climate and energy framework and beyond. The Energy Union concept recognises the importance of regional integration. For South East Europe, regional energy policy cooperation is seen as a means to address region-specific challenges such as security of supply, energy imports dependence, affordability, but also to build trust. South East Europe’s hitherto untapped or underutilised potential for renewable energy, hydro – also for storage – and the huge potential for energy efficiency improvements offer a great opportunity to solve the region’s challenges.
    Date: 2016–04
  21. By: -
    Date: 2015–11
  22. By: Gill, Carrie; Atlas, Stephen; Hardisty, David
    Keywords: Loss aversion, temporal framing, energy efficiency, Consumer/Household Economics, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Marketing, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2016
  23. By: Chi-Kong Chyong; Roman Kazmin
    Abstract: Abstract We examine the economic and strategic implications for gas supply security and diversity of Europe’s reliance on global LNG markets. In particular, we carry out a detailed assessment of LNG trade between Atlantic and Pacific basins in 2011-2014, focusing on why there was not as much LNG arbitrage as might have been expected given the large price differential between these two regions in that period. By explicitly modelling a counterfactual scenario, in which LNG can be diverted to follow price differentials between Europe and Asia, we found that: (a) it is not the demand shock in Asia (driven by the Fukushima incident) per se but the high oil price in that period, as well as decoupling of European spot prices from oil-linked contract prices that created the huge natural gas price differentials between Asia and Europe; (b) amongst the largest LNG suppliers who could arbitrage between the Atlantic and Pacific regions, Qatar would have received the highest net benefit from diverting cargoes to Asia, however, these benefits are highly sensitive to the possibility of contract price renegotiations with Asian buyers (similar to what happened to large pipeline gas suppliers in Europe in the recent past); (c) furthermore, diverting contractual volumes from Europe to Asia would have required lengthy negotiations with European buyers who, as our modelling results suggest, did not necessarily have compelling commercial interests in sending contractual cargoes to Asia after taking into account that the surplus of LNG created in North-West Europe allowed these buyers to reduce high oil-linked contract prices with traditional pipeline suppliers. Thus, contrary to the currently prevailing view that European importers have largely ‘overinvested’ in LNG import capacity, these investments should be seen as a strategic bargaining option that European importers have developed to counterbalance the otherwise potentially larger pricing power of pipeline suppliers. Thus, investment in LNG import capacity reduces the need to invest in ‘strategic and special relationship’ with traditional suppliers to ensure against ‘unfair’ pricing practices.
    Keywords: Liquefied natural gas, LNG, security of supply, natural gas, pipelines, long-term contracts, spot transactions, Asia, Qatar, Russia, gas pricing, arbitrage
    JEL: Q48 L14 L13 O13 Q47 Q41 P28
    Date: 2016–01–12
  24. By: de Vries, H.; Duijzer, E.
    Abstract: To stimulate and facilitate the use of alternative-fuel vehicles, it is crucial to have a network of refueling or recharging stations in place that guarantees that vehicles can reach (most of) their destinations without running out of fuel. Because initial investments in these stations are restricted, it is important to choose their locations deliberately. A fast growing stream of literature therefore analyzes the problem of locating refueling or recharging stations. The models proposed in these studies assume that the driving range is fixed, although reality shows that the driving range is highly stochastic. These models thereby misrepresent the actual coverage a network of refueling stations provides to drivers. This paper introduces two problems that do take the stochastic nature of the driving range into account. We first introduce the Expected Flow Refueling Location Problem, which is to maximize the expected number of drivers who can complete their trip without running out of fuel. The Chance Constrained Flow Refueling Location Problem is to maximize the number of drivers for which the probability of running out of fuel is below a certain threshold. We prove the problems to be strongly NP-hard, propose novel mixed-integer programming formulations for these problems, and show how these models can be extended to the case that the driving range varies during a trip. Furthermore, we extensively analyze and compare our models using randomly generated problem instances and a real life case study about the Florida state highway network. Our results show that taking the stochastic nature of the driving range into account can substantially improve the network coverage, that optimal solutions are highly robust with respect to data impreciseness, and that the potential gains of stochastic models heavily depend on the driving range distribution. Based on the results, we discuss policy implications.
    Keywords: facility location, stochastic models, recourse model, chance constraint, flow refueling, electric vehicle
    Date: 2016–05–10
  25. By: Finn Roar Aune; Ann Christin Bøeng; Snorre Kverndokk; Lars Lindholt; Knut Einar Rosendahl (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: We study the interactions between fuel efficiency improvements in the transport sector and the oil market, where the efficiency improvements are policy-induced in certain regions of the world We are especially interested in feedback mechanisms of fuel efficiency such as the rebound effect, carbon leakages and the “green paradox†, but also the distributional effects via oil price changes for different regions, sectors and oil producers. An intertemporal numerical model of the international oil market is introduced, where OPEC-Core producers have market power. We find that the rebound effect has a noticeable effect on the transport sector, but also on other sectors through lower oil prices in the regions that introduce the policy. There is a small green paradox effect in the sense that oil consumption increases initially when the fuel efficiency measures are gradually implemented. Finally, there will be significant carbon leakages if the policy is not implemented in all regions, with leakage rates of 35 per cent or higher. Non-OPEC producers will suffer more than OPEC producers by fuel efficiency policies due to high production costs.
    Keywords: Fuel efficiency; transport; oil market; market power; distribution: feedback mechanisms
    JEL: D42 Q54 R48
    Date: 2016–04
  26. By: Mariarosaria Comunale (Economics Department, Bank of Lithuania)
    Abstract: In this article we study the impact of real effective exchange rate misalignments, based on determinants, including different types of foreign capital inflows, on GDP growth in the EU. This can provide a useful contribution to understanding the causal link between inflows, real effective exchange rate disequilibria and GDP growth during both the boom and the crisis period. For this analysis, we use a panel of 27 EU countries for the period 1994–2012, with annual frequency. We find that the core countries have been mostly undervalued from the crisis onwards, while the periphery (excluding Ireland) were overvalued starting from 2003–2004, as expected. Concerning the new Member States, these are persistently overvalued for the entire time span. The results seem to be generally driven by the inflows of banking loans more than by FDIs or portfolio investments. In the second stage, we study the influence of exchange rate misalignments and volatilities on growth. We argue that the real effective exchange rate misalignments associated with the inflows have been a further cause for decline in GDP, in a long-run perspective, while they do not play a role in the short run. The exchange rate volatilities and the undervaluation dummy are not robust in affecting GDP growth, while spillovers and global factors seem to matter in all the specifications both in the short and long run.
    Keywords: real effective exchange rate, behavioural effective exchange rate, foreign capital inflows, FDIs, Dutch disease, GDP growth, European Union
    JEL: F31 F43 C23
    Date: 2016–05–23
  27. By: Dreger, Christian; Fidrmuc, Jarko; Kholodilin, Konstantin; Ulbricht, Dirk
    Abstract: The exchange rate fluctuations strongly affect the Russian economy, given its heavy dependence on foreign trade and investment. Since January 2014, the Ruble lost 50% of its value against the US Dollar. The fall of the currency started with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The impact of the conflict on Russia may have been amplified by sanctions imposed by Western countries. However, as Russia is heavily dependent on exports of natural re-sources, the oil price decline starting in Summer 2014 could be another factor behind the deterioration. By using high frequency data on nominal exchange and interest rates, oil prices, actual and unanticipated sanctions, we provide evidence on the driving forces of the Ruble exchange rate. The analysis is based on cointegrated VAR models, where fundamental long-run relationships are implicitly embedded. The results indicate that the bulk of the depreciation can be related to the decline of oil prices. In addition, unanticipated sanctions matter for the conditional volatility of the variables involved.
    Keywords: military conflict, sanctions, oil prices, Ruble depreciation
    JEL: C22 F31 F51
    Date: 2015–08–21
  28. By: Yan, Lei; Irwin, Scott H.; Sanders, Dwight R.
    Abstract: Commodity index investment has increased dramatically since 2004 and aroused an intense debate about the market impact of these investment flows on futures prices. Due to data scarcity some studies rely on mapping algorithms to infer index positions in WTI crude oil futures from agricultural commodities and find an economically large and statistically significant impact of index positions on crude oil futures prices. This paper provides direct evidence that the identified impact of index investment from mapping algorithms is spurious, with the entire forecasting power coming from 2008. Mapping algorithms implicitly assume annually fixed ratios in index positions between WTI crude oil and agricultural commodities, which generally does not hold. An idiosyncratic spike in agricultural index positions during 2008, coupled with the spike in oil prices, causes the spurious impact of index investment on crude oil futures prices found in earlier studies.
    Keywords: Commodity futures, Crude oil, Index investment, Mapping algorithm, Financial Economics, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, D84, G13, Q13, Q41,
  29. By: Lim, Siew Hoon; Lin, Zhulu; Borders, Michael; Lin, Tong
    Abstract: The expansion of oil industry in the region has led to tremendous increases in the demand for water in western North Dakota where quality water is most scarce. Thus, striking a delicate balance between preserving water resources and expanding oil production at the Bakken is a challenging task. Using a decentralized agent-based model, we posit water depots as “agents” and examine the emergent behavior of water depots under three potential policy scenarios, and these scenarios are then compared to the baseline results to gauge the impacts on water consumption in the North Dakota oil patch. Our results show that restricting industrial use of the Missouri River and Lake Sakakawea waters would reduce a sizable amount of water consumption at the Bakken, but system violations would be prevalent and rendering null the restriction.
    Keywords: Water allocation, surface water, groundwater, Bakken shale, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q25, Q57,
    Date: 2016
  30. By: Xun, Li; Rui, Wang
    Abstract: This paper examines how retailers adjust prices of national brands and private labels when they are exposed to energy shocks. Empirical results from 12 U.S. fluid milk markets provide insights into the magnitude and timing of price adjustment. Asymmetric energy pass-through is validated. The pass-through rate is found to be consistently higher for national brands compared to private labels, indicating that the private labels are more insulated to energy shocks. Further results show that the speed of energy price pass-through is faster for national brands compared to private labels when the energy price increases. However, the speed is similar for the two when the energy price decrease. Overall, this paper shows that when there is a positive energy shock, the retailers adjust prices of national brands first, on average, but they are almost indifferent with the order of adjustment when there is a decrease in energy prices.
    Keywords: Energy Shock, National Brand, Private Label, Price Adjustment, Demand and Price Analysis, Industrial Organization, D4, L1, Q1, Q4,
    Date: 2016–05
  31. By: Torfinn Harding (NHH Norwegian School of Economics); Radoslaw Stefanski (University of St Andrews); Gerhard Toews (University of Oxford)
    Abstract: We estimate the effect of giant oil and gas discoveries on bilateral real exchange rates. The size and plausibly exogenous timing of such discoveries make them ideal for identifying the effects of an anticipated resource boom on prices. We find that a giant discovery with the value of a country's GDP increases the real exchange rate by 14% within 10 years following the discovery. The appreciation is nearly exclusively driven by an appreciation of the prices of non-tradable goods. We show that these empirical results are qualitatively and quantitatively in line with a calibrated model with forward looking behaviour and Dutch disease dynamics.
    Keywords: Carbon Subsidies; Subsidies; Fossil Fuels; Pollution; Energy; Carbon
    JEL: O44 O41 Q53 Q54 H23
    Date: 2016–05–21
  32. By: Luo, Rui; Fortenbery, T. Randall
    Abstract: In this paper we provide a dynamic minimum-variance hedging strategy for firms in incomplete markets. Firms are looking for improved methods to more efficiently hedge input and output price risk exposure, but it is often the case that all price risk cannot be eliminated through exchange traded futures contracts. Since futures contracts exist for a limited number of assets some sources of price risk cannot be directly hedged and thus hedging markets are incomplete for many firms. If related futures contracts do not exist for both input and output price risk the traditional approach is to employ a one-sided hedge, that is, to hedge only for the risk source with related futures contracts and remain unhedged in the other. By identifying the price transmission (PT) mechanism between input and output prices in a classical complete-market model, we present a two-sided hedge that enables firms to minimize both input and output price fluctuations through a single tradable futures contract even in incomplete markets. Specifically, since in different industries PT is expected to vary in direction and magnitude, we consider four subcases in the model according to the direction of PT and the availability of futures contracts: (CO) cost-driving PT in which supply forces lead to equilibrium between input and output prices with output futures contracts; (CI) cost-driving PT with input futures contracts; (DO) demand-driving PT with output futures contracts; and (DI) demand-driving PT with input futures contracts. In all cases the firm can only directly hedge cash positions with futures contracts (a one-sided hedge), or jointly hedge input and output price risk with a single futures contract (a two-sided hedge) but accounting for PT. A two-factor diffusion model with a stochastic, mean-reverting convenience yield is assumed for the underlying asset. The optimal dynamic hedges are the weighted averages of the classic minimizing direct hedge and cross hedging ratios. We apply our results to the problem of a hypothetical firm that uses light sweet crude oil to produce jet fuel. The firm intends to reduce price exposure with a futures contract on light sweet crude oil. We compare hedging policies and hedging effectiveness between the one-sided and two-sided hedges. Weekly data of futures prices for light sweet crude oil for delivery to Cushing, OK, and spot prices for New York Harbor jet fuel, and spot prices for light sweet crude oil from April 4, 1990 to August, 16, 2015 are used to perform the analysis. We find that the two-sided model results in a more effective hedge. These findings suggest that jet fuel producers will most efficiently reduce profit fluctuations using a hedging model that directly accounts for vertical price links between the input and output prices. The contribution of this paper consists of devising a dynamic two-sided hedge ratio for firms to jointly hedge input and output payoffs in incomplete markets by incorporating the PT mechanism into the traditional complete-market minimizing hedging model. As PT is an important characteristic describing the overall operation of the market, this strategy may be practical for firms in multiple industries.
    Keywords: Hedging, Price Transmission, Commodity Futures, Financial Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, G11, G31,
    Date: 2016
  33. By: Pozo, Veronica F.; Bejan, Vladimir
    Keywords: energy markets, price transmissions, ethanol, crude oil, corn, Demand and Price Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2016–07
  34. By: Makoto Taniguchi (Research Department, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature); Naoki Masuhara (Research Department, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature); Kimberly Burnett (University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa)
    Abstract: Security measures of three resources; water, energy and food are analysed for thirty two countries in the Asia Pacific region, in terms of amounts of the resource, self-production, and diversity of souces of each resource. We find that the Asia Pacific countries contain almost half of the world’s income and population, and are more self-sufficient in food production than the rest of the world, but are less self-sufficient in energy production. The self-production ratio of food within the Asia Pacific region has been decreasing since the 1960’s, though the ratio is still over 100 %. On the other hand, the self-production energy rate within the Asia-Pacific region increased from 82 % in the 1970’s up to 95 % in 2010. Diversity for all the three resources is also analyzed using surface water and groundwater for water sources; hydro power, geothermal power, solar, and biomass for energy; and cereals, vegetable, fruit, meat, and fish for food. We see high diversity of sources of water in the US and the Philippines, and a low diversity of sources of food in the US, Canada, and Indonesia.
    Date: 2015–12
  35. By: Venus, Thomas J.; Drabik, Dusan
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to analyze the interaction effects of labeling genetically modified organisms (GMOs) on the EU biodiesel market. On the one hand, the EU biofuel mandate reduces the area available for food cultivation. On the other hand, strict GMO regulations hamper the use of GM crops in EU Member States. Our motivation comes from the present political discussion of how to regulate a number of new plant breeding techniques (NPBTs) in the European Union. In case the European Commission considers NPBTs as conventional breeding technique, several agricultural markets will be affected differently than when NPBTs fall under the scope of the genetically modified organism (GMO) regulation. This regulation decision affects labeling (and hence marketing) of NPBTs. We simulate the introduction of oilseed plants produced from NPBTs on the biodiesel market. We assume that rapeseed from NPBTs are more productive than conventional breeding techniques. We consider the case of rapeseed to show the implications of GM labeling on a crop that can be used for food, feed, and fuel. Rapeseed oil obtained from crushing rapeseed can be used for human or biofuel consumption while the byproduct rapeseed extraction meal (henceforth: meal) is mainly used as protein feed for animals (e.g., cows and cattle). We develop a theoretical model that links prices of rapeseed as well as rapeseed oil and meal, and also links the quantities through supply of oil and meal and demand for oil, meal, and biodiesel. Our preliminary results show that regulating NPBTs under the GM regulation reduces the inflationary effects on food prices of the biofuel policy. However, this reduced price effect is not for free. By comparing the welfare effects of the three scenarios, we show which consumers and producers benefit and loose from the GMO policy decision.
    Keywords: genetically modified organisms, biofuel policies, biodiesel, New Plant Breding Technology, Agricultural and Food Policy,
    Date: 2016–08
  36. By: Baker, Justin; Latta, Greg; Jones, Jason; Beach, Robert; Ohrel, Sara; Creason, Jared
    Keywords: Biopower, GHG Mitigation, Food Security, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2016
  37. By: Marian Stuiver; Katrine Soma; Phoebe Koundouri; Sander van den Burg; Alwin Gerritsen; Thorbjørn Harkamp; Niels Dalsgaard; Fabio Zagonari; Raul Guanche; Jan-Joost Schouten; Saskia Hommes; Amerissa Giannouli; Tore Söderqvist; Lars Rosen; Rita Garção; Jenny Norrman; Christine Röckmann; Mark de Bel; Barbara Zanuttigh; Ole Petersen; Flemming Møhlenberg
    Abstract: European seas are encountering an upsurge in competing marine activities and infrastructures. Traditional exploitation such as fisheries, tourism, transportation, and oil production are accompanied by new sustainable economic activities such as offshore windfarms, aquaculture, and tidal and wave energy. One proposed solution to overcome possible competing claims at sea lies in combining these economic activities as part of Multi-Use Platforms at Sea (MUPS). MUPS can be understood as areas at sea, designated for a combination of activities, either completely integrated in a platform or in shared marine space. MUPS can potentially benefit from each other in terms of infrastructure, maintenance, etc. Developing MUPS in the marine environment demands adequate governance. In this article, we investigate four European sites to find out how governance arrangements may facilitate or complicate MUPs. In particular, we apply a framework specifying policy, economic, social, technical, environmental, and legal (PESTEL) factors to explore governance arrangements in four case study sites in different sea basins around Europe (the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean, the North Sea, and the Baltic Sea). The article concludes with policy recommendations on a governance regime for facilitating the development of MUPS in the future.
    Keywords: multi-use platforms; offshore; governance; PESTEL; energy production; aquaculture
    JEL: J1
    Date: 2016
  38. By: Olaf Corry; David Reiner
    Abstract: Emergent or unproven technologies occupy a central role in post-Paris debates about climate change goals and their feasibility. New technologies have often faced major political and social challenges and the way they are communicated is changing as technical experts and scientists play a greater role in communicating directly online. We review the scope and key characteristics of communications on carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies presenting data from a comprehensive survey of websites compiled to assess the state of global CCS communications. Our key empirical finding is that existing communications are techno-centric in their framing, overlooking economic, political and institutional aspects of CCS as a societal arrangement. We also find an overrepresentation of traditionally less trusted actors from business and government (resulting in a pro-CCS bias), rather than by independent academic researchers or NGOs. We offer some recommendations for how CCS and similarly emergent climate technologies might be better communicated in the age of the Internet, not just in terms of their technical features but also in terms of their societal impacts and the role they might play in a wider social and political context.
    Keywords: Emergent technologies, carbon capture and storage (CCS), climate change, public communications, epistemic community
    JEL: M38 Q40 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2016–02–12
  39. By: Wei Jin (School of Economics, UNSW Business School, The University of New South Wales and School of Public Policy and Management, Zhejiang University); ZhongXiang Zhang (College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University)
    Abstract: Whether China continues its business-as-usual investment-driven, environment-polluting growth pattern or adopts an investment and innovation-driven, environmentally sustainable development holds important implications for both national and global environmental governance. Building on a Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans growth model that features endogenous technological change induced by R&D and knowledge stock accumulation, this paper presents an exposition, both analytically and numerically, of the mechanism underlining China’s economic transition from an investment-driven, pollution-intensive to an investment and innovation-driven, environmentally sustainable growth path. We show that if R&D technological innovation is incorporated into China’s growth mechanism, then at some tipping point in time when marginal welfare gain of R&D for knowledge accumulation becomes equalized with that of investment for physical asset deployment, China’s economy will launch capital investment and R&D simultaneously and make a transition to a sustainable growth path along which consumption, capital investment, and R&D have a balanced share of 5: 4: 1, consumption, capital stock, and knowledge stock all grow at a rate of 4.9%, and environmental quality improves at a rate of 2.5%. In contrast, if R&D technological innovation is not harnessed as a new growth engine, then China’s economy will follow its business-as-usual investment-driven growth path along which standalone accumulation of dirty physical capital stock will lead to an more than 200-fold increase in environmental pollution.
    Keywords: Endogenous Technological Change, Sustainable Development, Economic Growth Model, China’s Economic Transition
    JEL: Q55 Q58 Q43 Q48 O13 O31 O33 O44 F18
    Date: 2016–03
  40. By: Andrea Bigano (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC)); Aleksander Sniegocki (Warsaw Institute for Economic Studies (WISE)); Jacopo Zotti (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) and University of Trieste)
    Abstract: Economic activities affect the environment through a multiplicity of channels. Besides generating GHG emissions that induce climatic changes, every modern economy is connected to the environment throughout a continuous flow of materials. To generate economic wealth, a modern economy demands natural resources, and produces a continuous flow of waste. The scarcity of natural resources and the negative externalities arising along the life cycle of the resources from the extraction of the resources to their transformation, the use of the final products and eventually the final disposal of the latter seem natural motivations for the current policy push towards a more dematerialized and a more circular economy. The EU in particular appears to be approaching a new frontier of the environmental policy. The main contribution of this paper is a qualitative assessment of this strategy. To this aim, we first investigate the theoretical and political rationale for the EU to foster dematerialization, and on this basis, we provide an economic assessment of the effective feasibility of the initiative. From a theoretical economics point of view, the paper provides an overview of the main externalities arising from materials’ extraction, use and disposal. In a policy perspective, the paper reviews the state of affairs of the major world countries (USA, Japan and China in particular) on this issue, and contextualizes the EU action in a global perspective. This paper investigates whether in this policy field the EU can globally play a decisive role by itself or its role may be limited to providing a good example for other countries to follow, as in the case of the reduction of GHG emissions. In the second part of the paper we discuss some of the most promising policies put forward by the DYNAMIX project. On the basis of the qualitative policy assessment performed in DYNAMIX, we illustrate why these measures might be worth serious consideration. A discussion regarding the political economy of the policies under scrutiny complements the analysis of their effectiveness and efficiency.
    Keywords: Dematerialization, Absolute Decoupling, Resource Efficiency, Policy Mixes, Qualitative Assessment
    JEL: H23 O44 Q01 Q32
    Date: 2016–05
  41. By: cui, jingbo; ji, yongjie
    Abstract: This paper seeks to examine the role of multi-plant’s network to determine their affiliated plants’ emissions in response to tightened environmental regulations. Polluting plants, which are located across the nation and are exposed to regional environmental pressures, form a network through their affiliated parent company. We investigate whether or not these multi-plant firms, to avoid local environmental compliance, shift pollution emissions from their affiliated plants in regulated counties to those in unregulated ones, thereby leading to emissions leakage. We compile a unique detailed plant-level dataset that pertains to the U.S. manufacturing industry over the period 1990-2008. Taking advantage of the spatial and temporal variations of designated nonattaintment status at county level, we seek to identify the effects of multi-plant firms’ network on annual changes in emissions of affiliated plants residing in regulated areas as compared with those in unregulated areas.
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2016–05–25
  42. By: Williams, Niall; Zhang, Wei
    Keywords: Environmental Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2016
  43. By: Kadohognon Sylvain Ouattara (ESCA Ecole de Management, Casablanca, et CREM-UMR CNRS 6211)
    Abstract: Ce papier analyse la taxation des émissions de pollution dans une industrie où une entreprise semi-publique est en concurrence avec une entreprise privée (nationale ou étrangère). Nous sup-posons que les propriétaires des firmes engagent un gestionnaire à qui ils délèguent les décisions de production et d'abattement de la pollution. Nous montrons que la délégation a pour effet d'augmenter la taxe environnementale et le dommage environnemental. De plus, le niveau de taxe environnementale taxé par lEtat en présence d'une firme privée étrangère est supérieur à celui taxé en présence d'une firme privée domestique.
    Keywords: duopole mixte, taxe environnementale, incitations managériales, privatisation partielle
    JEL: L13 L33 Q58 D21
    Date: 2016–05
  44. By: Bukvić, Rajko
    Abstract: English Abstract. This article considers the problem of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, observed as one of the main anthropogenic causes of the increasing carbon concentration in the atmosphere, and consequently the global climate change. Until the Industrial Revolution, the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere amounted to 300 gigatonnes of carbon. The fight against atmosphere pollution goes in three directions: administrative regulations, a system of economic mechanisms and market relations building. In the second half of the XX century many schemes for involving the market mechanism in solving these problems were proposed. These efforts especially increased in the last decade of XX century and finally the Kyoto Protocol 1997 supported many flexible mechanisms (trade of quotas – cap and trade, joint implementation projects and clean development mechanisms), as a solution to these problems, which was explained in 2001 in Marrakesh. In spite of all these efforts, during the first period of its implementation (2008–2012) the emissions of carbon increased. This issue has been especially pronounced in Russia, one of the main global emitters. The paper explores the mechanisms and projects in Russia, and its importance for reducing the GHG emissions and fulfilling the commitments of Kyoto Protocol and other international documents. Today, the world “carbon” market is moving to the development of national, regional and sub-regional regulation systems while keeping its international level (system UNFCCC). The Doha Conference held in 2012 precised the conditions upon which the convention parties would define its climate policies in the next years. The leading tendency (transition to regional, sub-regional and national regulation systems) was maintained, as well as the “Kyoto” system, which in the new stage would play a transitional role on the road to a new expected global agreement. Russian Abstract. Статья рассматривает проблему сокращения выбросов парниковых газов (ПГ), считающихся одной из главных антропогенных причин роста концентрации углерода в атмосфере, и впоследствии глобальных климатических перемен. С времени Индустриальной революции эмиссия ПГ в атмосферу достигла 300 гигатонн углерода. Борьба с атмосферным загрязнением пока шла тремя путями: административное регулирование, система экономических механизмов и формирование рыночных отношений. Во второй половине 20 века для решения проблем были предложены многие схемы создания рыночного механизма, считающегося более подходящим во многих отношениях. Эти усилия особенно увеличились в последнем десятилетии 20 века, и наконец Киотский протокол в 1997 году поддержал несколько так называемых гибких механизмов: торговля квотами (квотирование и торговля), проекты совместного осуществления и механизмы чистого развития, которые были разработаны в 2001 году в Марракеше. Но, несмотря на все эти усилия, в течение первого периода их применения (2008–2012), выбросы углерода в атмосферу возросли. Эти вопросы являются особенно важным в России, одном из крупнейших эмиттеров ПГ. Статья рассматривает также механизмы и проекты в России, и их важность для сокращения ПГ выбросов и выполнение обязательств из Киотского протокола и других международных документов. В настоящее время мировой «углеродный» рынок идёт к развитию национальных, региональных и субрегиональных систем регулирования, но при сохранении международного сегмента (системы РКИК ООН). Конференция в Дохе в 2012 году дополнила и уточнила те условия, в которых Стороны Конвенции, будут выстраивать свою климатическую политику в следующие годы. Ведущая тенденция (перенос акцентов на региональные, субрегиональные и национальные системы регулирования) сохранилась, но сохранилась и «киотская» система, которая на новом этапе будет играть роль переходной на пути к новому ожидающемуся глобальному соглашению.)
    Keywords: greenhouse gases (GHG), anthropogenic impact, the Kyoto Protocol, carbon markets, flexible mechanisms, Russian actions (парниковые газы, антропогенные влияния, Киотский протокол, рынки углерода, гибкие механизмы, активности России)
    JEL: H23 K32 L51 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2015
  45. By: Cseh, Arpad
    Abstract: The global and long-term nature of climate change conflicts with the reality of self-interested and short-term oriented nations. International negotiations have failed to reach an agreement that achieves effective mitigation, as this dual conflict has not been resolved. This paper proposes an alternative approach to international cooperation, one designed with the conflicting self-interests and short-termism in mind. Key elements of the proposed framework are: establishing a new international treaty and fund; determining a benchmark emission path for each country as well as a carbon price; paying countries annually through the fund for reducing emissions below their benchmark levels as opposed to penalizing them for higher emissions; financing the fund’s annual payments by raising capital from private investors; and repaying the private capital in the long-term using contributions from participating countries. The benefits of this approach include that reaching an international agreement becomes more realistic, self-interest and short-termism are transformed from obstacles into drivers of climate change mitigation and additional financing is created to support the necessary investments. Cutting emissions, currently a burden to be shared among countries in a zero sum game, turns into an opportunity.
    Keywords: Carbon payment; UN climate negotiations; Climate change; Global warming; Carbon price; Private investor financing
    JEL: Q00 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2016–05–17
    Date: 2016
  47. By: Alessandro Tavoni; Doruk Ä°riÅŸ
    Abstract: We live in a world characterized by discontinuities, where thresholds for abrupt and irreversible change are omnipresent, both in economic and ecological dynamics. Such thresholds, often referred to as tipping points, trigger nonlinear responses on the part of individuals or ecosystems. Climate change is a prominent example of the pervasiveness of tipping points, since they appear both in the strategic decision to embark in costly mitigation (Heal and Kunreuther, 2012) and in the Earth’s climate system (Lenton et al., 2008). In this chapter we will focus on the first class of tipping points, and refer to them as “behavioral tipping points†, to distinguish them from the ecological ones. As it will become apparent, though, the two are closely linked, since planetary boundaries define “the safe operating space for humanity with respect to the Earth system and are associated with the planet’s biophysical subsystems or processes†(Rockström et al., 2009). Hence, to discuss strategies one has to account for the underlying physical processes and how they are perceived (Tavoni and Levin, 2014). Whether a country or a subnational actor (a city, an NGO or a firm) decides to invest in a clean technology, or more broadly in actions aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, depends on its expectations with regards to the actions of others. This is particularly salient in the context of a public good such as climate change mitigation, where the worst-case scenario is for an actor to take costly action while the others refuse to do so, the so-called “sucker’s payoff†. Arguably, this has been the case for the European Union in climate negotiations up to COP 20 in Lima, with unilateral commitments by the EU routinely unmatched by other large economies. COP 21 in Paris was perhaps the first Conference of the Parties to mark a greater willingness to show leadership by other large powers, such as the United States and China. A possible interpretation, in keeping with the above arguments, is that enough action at various scales had accumulated in the years leading to the Paris summit that even less committed countries showed an increased willingness to act. These emerging trends are potentially game-changing, provided that enough actors lead the way by taking action early on. Once a tipping point for sufficient investments in low carbon technologies has been reached, and constituencies with stakes in the nascent markets have formed, standard economic forces will sustain the transition to a carbon-neutral economy. We will review some of the recent literature that provides clues about when such reinforcing dynamics take place. In doing so, we will come across related concepts, such as diffusion and feedback. Importantly, given the wide scientific uncertainties surrounding the location of the thresholds, we will discuss the role of expectations and argue that reference points are crucial for supporting cooperation. Intuitively, under uncertainty asymmetries about views on the expected losses from climate change are as important as differences in objective (but elusive) vulnerabilities.
    Date: 2016–05

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