nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2016‒03‒17
43 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Analysis of a controversial decision process: the case of the pumped hydro storage power plant Atdorf in Germany By Manuel Baumann
  2. From Primary Resources to Useful Energy: The Pollution Ceiling Efficiency Paradox By Amigues, Jean-Pierre; Moreaux, Michel
  3. Pollution Abatement v.s. Energy Efficiency Improvements By Amigues, Jean-Pierre; Moreaux, Michel
  4. Economic growth and particulate pollution concentrations in China By David I. Stern; Donglan Zha
  5. Variable renewable energies and storage development in long term energy modelling tools By Jacques Després; Patrick Criqui; Silvana Mima; Nouredine Hadjsaid; Isabelle Noirot
  6. Precautionary Storage in Electricity Markets By Tunç Durmaz
  7. Combining Price and Quantity Controls under Partitioned Environmental Regulation By Sebastian Rausch; Jan Abrell
  8. Export Product Diversification and the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Evidence from Turkey By Gozgor, Giray; Can, Muhlis
  9. Design choices and environmental policies By Sophie Bernard
  10. Unintended Consequences; Spillovers from Nigeria’s Fuel Pricing Policies to Its Neighbor By Montfort Mlachila; Edgardo Ruggiero; David Corvino
  11. Is energy a stimulus for economic growth? A focused study on Malaysia using the auto regressive distributed lag technique By Abarahan, Amnisuhailah Binti; Masih, Mansur
  12. Climate Change Policy under Spatial Heat Transport and Polar Amplification By William Brock; Anastasios Xepapadeas
  13. Fossil fuel subsidy and pricing policies : recent developing country experience By Kojima,Masami
  14. L'europe de l'énergie : de la concurrence à la solidarité ? By Frédéric Marty
  15. Asymmetric and nonlinear passthrough of energy prices to CO2 emission allowance prices By Shawkat Hammoudeh; Amine Lahiani; Duc Khuong Nguyen; Ricardo M. Sousa
  16. Egypt : guiding reform of energy subsidies long-term By Griffin,Peter; Laursen,Thomas Blatt; Robertson,James W.
  17. Urban Road Pricing: A Comparative Study on the Experiences of London, Stockholm and Milan By Edoardo Croci; Aldo Ravazzi Douvan
  18. Regional Development and Employment Creation by Establishing a Base for the Offshore Wind Energy Industry (Japanese) By IWAMOTO Koichi
  19. Do spot and future palm oil prices influence the stock market prices of a major palm oil producer? the Malaysian experience By Mohammad Nor, Karina; Masih, Mansur
  20. Forecasting the Nominal Brent Oil Price with VARs—One Model Fits All? By Benjamin Beckers; Samya Beidas-Strom
  21. Input vs. output taxation – a DSGE approach to modelling resource decoupling By Marek Antosiewicz; Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks; Piotr Lewandowski
  22. A study of CO2 emissions, output,energy consumption, and trade By Sahbi Farhani; Anissa Chaibi; Christophe Rault
  23. Do Natural Resources Influence Who Comes to Power, and How? By Carreri, Maria; Dube, Oeindrila
  24. Solar Thermal Energy for Sustainable Development in Tunisia By Emna Omri; Nouri Chtourou; Damien Bazin
  25. Responses of international stock markets to oil price surges: a regimeswitching perspective By Rania Jammazi; Duc Khuong Nguyen
  26. Leveling the field for biofuels: Comparing the economic and environmental impacts of biofuel and other export crops in Malawi: By Schuenemann, Franziska; Thurlow, James; Zeller, Manfred
  27. The Political Economy of Deregulation Policy in the Downstream Sector of the Petroleum Industry in Nigeria (1999-2015) By Kenneth Nweke; Vincent Nyewusira
  28. Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis By Tomas Havranek; Roman Horvath; Ayaz Zeynalov
  29. An Ecological Footprint Analysis of Dalian Nationalities University, China By Juyong Zhang
  30. "Spain - Eximbank's Billion Dollar Client": The Role of the US Financing the Spanish Nuclear Program By Mª del Mar Rubio-Varas y Joseba De la Torre; Joseba De la Torre
  31. Heterogeneous beliefs, regret, and uncertainty: The role of speculation in energy price dynamics By Marc Joëts
  32. Kuwait: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kuwait By International Monetary Fund
  33. The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies Revisited; Evidence for Developing Countries By David Coady; Valentina Flamini; Louis Sears
  34. Investigating fuel poverty in the transport sector: toward a composite indicator of vulnerability By Audrey Berry; Y Jouffe; Nicolas Coulombel; Celine Guivarch
  35. The Role of Natural Gas Consumption and Trade in Tunisia’s Output By Mohamed Arouri; Sahbi Farhani; Muhammad Shahbaz; Frédéric Teulon
  36. Measuring contagion effects between crude oil and OECD stock markets By Khaled Guesmi; Salma Fattoum
  37. Recent Monetary Policy Developments : a speech at the "Energy Transition: Strategies for a New World," 35th Annual IHS CERAWeek, Houston, Texas, February 23, 2016. By Fischer, Stanley
  38. Angola: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Angola By International Monetary Fund
  39. Market integration and poverty : evidence from South Sudan By Varela,Gonzalo J.; Cali,Massimiliano; Pape,Utz Johann; Rojas,Esteban
  40. Understanding the Crisis between Turkey and Russia: A Normalization or Escalation? By Erdem Ozluk
  41. An Empirical Investigation of Oil-Macro-Financial Linkages in Saudi Arabia By Ken Miyajima
  42. Contribution of the Pulse Crop Industry to the Economies of North Dakota and Eastern Montana By Coon, Randal C.; Olson, Frayne; Bangsund, Dean A.; Hodur, Nancy M.
  43. A Structural Model to Evaluate the Transition from Self-Commitment to Centralized Unit Commitment By Sergio Camelo; Luciano de Castro; Anthony Papavasiliou; Álvaro Riascos; Shmuel Oren

  1. By: Manuel Baumann (IET/CICS.NOVA, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, and ITAS, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: A main problem of Renewable Energy Sources (RES) as solar and wind energy, which represent a main pillar of the German energy transition, is that they cannot supply constant power output leading to an increasing demand of backup technologies as pumped hydro storage. This study analyses in the first part the controversial large scale PHS project Atdorf in Germany. On the one hand this project is seen as a prerequisite for a successful energy system transition by the German government. On the other hand there is also a strong local movement opposing the project mainly due to environmental concerns. It is a difficult tightrope walk to immolate to a certain degree local interests of a few to achieve an ostensible higher goal as a sustainable energy system. Simultaneously an interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA) orientated approach was conducted to understand the interest of the multi-stakeholders involved in this controversial case and contributed to the development of the story viewed by the ones living it. The IPA was conducted in detail for the citizen action groug “Bürgerinitiative (BI) Atdorf) and offered the possibility to gather unexpected insight into the entire decision process. The Atdorf project remains in this sense very controversial and unveils several problems allocated to the entire process of the energy transition in Germany. It highlights how large infrastructural energy projects can become complex due to multiple stakeholder perspectives, beliefs and interests. The example of Atdorf was then used as a base to build a hypothesis for a dynamic behaviour model of the ongoing decision process. It could be concluded that the project is stagnating due to uncertain market conditions caused by increasing shares of public financed RES, missing regulation and clear targets in combination with local protests. This general model was used to develop a qualitative system dynamics model, illustrated by a causal loop diagram (CLD). Aim of the CLD was to identify leverage points that lead to incentives for new energy storage technologies and allow the achievement of a renewable energy based electricity system. Three leverage points have been identified; 1) amount of Renewable energy which is influencing almost all other components of the system including markets, need for balancing, investment decisions etc. 2) development and the composition of electricity whole sale markets have to be adopted including EU-Emission trading system to avoid backfire effects; 3) higher level of coordination of energy policies, regulation and related targets to provide a better frame for decisions. The identified points could be confirmed via interviews conducted with experts from energy economics. Most participants concluded that there is a severe market problem at the moment facing a high acceptance problem regarding large pumped hydro storage projects. In general the conducted research helped to gather a better understanding of complex decision making processes and unveiled the importance of right communication within large infrastructural projects as Atdorf.
    Keywords: Renewable Energy, energy policies, energy transition, Germany
    JEL: D74 D81 O25
    Date: 2015–11
  2. By: Amigues, Jean-Pierre; Moreaux, Michel
    Abstract: We study an economy producing energy services from a polluting fossil fuel and a carbon free renewable resource under a constraint on the admissible atmospheric carbon concentration, equivalently under a constraint on the admissible temperature. The transformation rates of natural primary resources energy into useful energy are costly endogenous variables. Choosing higher efficiency rates requires to bring into operation more sophisticated energy transformation devices, that is more costly ones. We show that, independently of technical progress, along a perfect foresight equilibrium path which is Pareto optimal, the transformation rate of any exploited resource should increase throughout time, excepted within the period during which the carbon constraint is binding, a phenomenon we call the ’ceiling paradox’.
    Keywords: energy efficiency; carbon pollution; non-renewable resources;renewable resources.
    JEL: Q00 Q32 Q43 Q54
    Date: 2016–02
  3. By: Amigues, Jean-Pierre; Moreaux, Michel
    Abstract: To prevent climate change, three options are currently considered: improve the energy conversion efficiency of primary energy sources, develop carbon free alternatives to polluting fossil fuels, abate potential emissions before they are released inside the atmosphere. We study the optimal mix and timing of these three mitigation options in a stylized dynamic model. Useful energy can come from two sources: a non-renewable fossil fuel resource and a carbon free renewable resource. The extraction cost of the non-renewable resource is an increasing function of past cumulated extraction. The conversion efficiency rates of crude energy into useful energy are open to choice but higher conversion performances are also more costly to achieve. In addition the economy can choose to abate some fraction of its potential emissions and an higher abatement rate incurs higher costs. The society objective is to maintain below some mandated level, or carbon cap, the atmospheric carbon concentration. In the interesting case where the economy would be actually constrained by the cap, at least temporarily, we show the following. The optimal path is a sequence of four time regimes: a ’pre-ceiling’ regime before the economy is actually constrained by the cap, a ’ceiling’ regime at the cap, a ’post-ceiling’ regime below the cap and a final regime of exclusive exploitation of renewable resources. If the abatement option has ever to be used, it should be around the beginning time of the ceiling regime, first at an increasing rate and next at a decreasing rate. The efficiency performance from any source steadily improves with the exception of a time phase under the ceiling regime when it is constant. Renewables take progressively a larger share of the energy mix but their exploitation may be delayed significantly. Carbon emissions drop down continuously although not sufficiently to prevent carbon accumulation up to the cap during the pre-ceiling regime.
    Keywords: energy efficiency; carbon pollution; non-renewable resources; renewable resources; abatement
    Date: 2016–02
  4. By: David I. Stern (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University); Donglan Zha (College of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics)
    Abstract: Though the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) was originally developed to model the ambient concentrations of pollutants, most subsequent applications have focused on pollution emissions. Yet, it seems more likely that economic growth could eventually reduce the concentrations of local pollutants than emissions. We examine the role of income, convergence, and time related factors in explaining recent changes in PM 2.5 and PM 10 particulate pollution in 50 Chinese cities using new measures of ambient air quality that the Chinese government has published only since the beginning of 2013. We use a recently developed model that relates the rate of change of pollution to the growth of the economy and other factors as well as the traditional environmental Kuznets curve model. Pollution fell sharply from 2013 to 2014. We show that economic growth, convergence, and time effects all served to lower the level of pollution. The results also demonstrate the relationship between the two modeling approaches.
    Keywords: air pollution; economic growth; environmental Kuznets curve; China
    JEL: O44 P28 Q53 Q56
    Date: 2016–02
  5. By: Jacques Després (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LITEN - Laboratoire d'Innovation pour les Technologies des Energies Nouvelles et les nanomatériaux - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble 2 - CEA, G2ELab - Laboratoire de Génie Electrique de Grenoble - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Patrick Criqui (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Silvana Mima (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nouredine Hadjsaid (G2ELab - Laboratoire de Génie Electrique de Grenoble - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Isabelle Noirot (CEA/LITEN/DTNM/LT - CEA)
    Abstract: Energy systems are changing worldwide, and particularly in Europe, where energy policies promote a more sustainable energy production. Variable Renewable Energy sources (VRE) such as wind or solar are benefiting from these policies, but the long term implications need to be anticipated, through energy scenarios. Long term energy models are used, and VRE integration challenges are a hot topic in energy modelling. An assessment of long term energy models is necessary to understand how they represent the specific constraints of VRE on the rest of the power system. Therefore a new typology is proposed for comparing both long term energy models and power sector models. This comparison shows that, despite all the recent modelling efforts, no long term energy model represents in detail the power sector, with all the impacts of VRE. For example, there is no real representation of the electricity storage operation. Therefore we develop a new power sector module for POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems), one of the most technology-detailed long term energy models. We present the first results of this new detailed electricity module.
    Keywords: long term energy model,renewable energy
    Date: 2014–10–28
  6. By: Tunç Durmaz (SEE City University of Hong Kong)
    Abstract: As renewable energy depends on meteorological shocks and is non-controllable, the overall energy production becomes riskier with the rising renewable share. Although this has led to a renewed interest in storage technologies, not much consideration has been given to energy storage due to precautionary motives. In our study, we look at to what extent a convex marginal utility (prudence) and a convex marginal cost (frugality) can spur precautionary energy storage. We set up a simple theoretical model of energy consumption and production with intermittent renewable sources, dispatchable thermal systems, and energy storage. First, we characterize the optimum and demonstrate how prudence and frugality can lead to higher levels of energy storage. By applying our findings to perfectly competitive markets, we further show that prudence and frugality increase the market energy price through higher demand for energy storage and decrease price volatility. The results present important lessons about the direct and indirect impacts precautionary motives can have on electricity prices and energy generation decisions.
    Keywords: Precautionary energy storage, Intermittency, Renewable energy, Prudence, Frugality
    JEL: D24 D41 D81 D84 Q41
    Date: 2016–02
  7. By: Sebastian Rausch (ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Jan Abrell (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes hybrid emissions trading systems (ETS) under partitioned environmental regulation when firms’ abatement costs and future emissions are uncertain. We show that hybrid policies that introduce bounds on the price or the quantity of abatement provide a way to hedge against differences in marginal abatement costs across partitions. Price bounds are more efficient than abatement bounds as they also use information on firms’ abatement technologies while abatement bounds can only address emissions uncertainty. Using a numerical stochastic optimization model with equilibrium constraints for the European carbon market, we find that introducing hybrid policies in EU ETS reduces expected excess abatement costs of achieving targeted emissions reductions under EU climate policy by up to 89 percent. We also find that under partitioned regulation there is a high likelihood for hybrid policies to yield sizeable ex-post cost reductions.
    Keywords: Emissions trading, Partitioned environmental regulation, Uncertainty, Prices, Quantities, EU ETS
    JEL: H23 Q54 C63
    Date: 2016–03
  8. By: Gozgor, Giray; Can, Muhlis
    Abstract: Countries try to stabilize the demand for energy on one hand and sustain economic growth on other, but the worsening global warming and climate change problems have put pressure on them. This paper estimates the environmental Kuznets curve over the period 1971–2010 in Turkey both in the short and the long run. For this purpose, the unit root test with one structural break and the cointegration analysis with multiple endogenous structural breaks are used. The effects of energy consumption and export product diversification on CO2 emissions are also controlled in the dynamic empirical models. It is observed that the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is valid in Turkey in both the short run and the long run. The positive effect of energy consumption on CO2 emissions is also obtained in the long run. In addition, it is found that a greater product diversification of exports yields higher CO2 emissions in the long run. Inferences and policy implications are also discussed.
    Keywords: environmental Kuznets curve; energy consumption; export product diversification; time series modeling; structural breaks
    JEL: C32 O13 Q56
    Date: 2016–02–27
  9. By: Sophie Bernard
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of environmental policies when firms can adjust product design as they see fit. In particular, it considers cross relationships between product design dimensions. For example, when products are designed to be more durable, this may add production steps and increase pollutant emissions during production. More generally, changes applied to one dimension can affect the cost or environmental performance of other dimensions. In this theoretical model, a firm interacts with consumers and a regulator. Before the production stage, the firm must choose the levels of three design dimensions: 1) energy performance during production, 2) energy performance during use, and 3) durability. Depending on the assumptions, the dimensions are said to be complementary, neutral, or competitive. The regulator can promote greener designs by applying targeted environmental taxes on emissions during production or consumption. The main results shed light on the consequences of modifying public policies. When some design dimensions are competitive, a targeted emission tax can result in environmental burden shifting, with an overall increase in pollution. This paper also explores the social optimum and the development of second-best policies when some policy instruments are imperfect. Under given conditions, a government would want to regulate and constraint the level of durability.
    Keywords: green design, environmental policies, durability,
    JEL: L10 O13 Q53 Q55 Q58
    Date: 2016–02–16
  10. By: Montfort Mlachila; Edgardo Ruggiero; David Corvino
    Abstract: This paper examines the constraints that negative externalities (i.e., smuggling from a large neighbor) impose on the application of automatic fuel price adjustment mechanisms. It is often recommended to establish an automatic price adjustment mechanism to reduce fuel subsidy expenditures, but this approach may not work in the presence of these externalities. The paper illustrates the constraints by examining the case of Nigeria, a major oil exporter that subsidizes gasoline, and that of Togo, an oil importer and neighbor of Nigeria. It finds that the price differential between formal prices in Togo and Nigeria is the main driver of changes in formal sector gasoline consumption. Specifically, the lower the formal price in Nigeria, the higher is smuggling from Nigeria to Togo, and the lower the tax base in Togo. The econometric results suggest that, unless the real economy is performing very well, increases in pump prices in Togo are likely to erode the tax base, unless there are greater border controls. The unintended consequences of Nigeria’s pricing policies are the constraint they impose on fuel pricing policies of its neighbors and the subsidy Nigeria transfers to them (equivalent to at least 3 percent of Togo’s GDP in 2011), three-quarters of which was captured by smugglers in 2011, while one-quarter enhanced consumers surplus through lower gasoline prices.
    Keywords: Fuels;Nigeria;Togo;Energy prices;Energy pricing policy;Spillovers;Oil exporting countries;Cross country analysis;fuel pricing, smuggling, spillovers, optimal taxation
    Date: 2016–02–09
  11. By: Abarahan, Amnisuhailah Binti; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: It is without doubt that a country’s economic growth is important to ensure the well-being of its population as well as the country’s accreditation of its own economic standing to the world. With time, economic growth is often associated with the consumption of energy. Being the aim of any country to characterise itself with sustainable development, energy becomes prevalently abused to the extent of the considerable consequences we are experiencing today. However, it is uncertain whether it is the abusive energy consumption that results the economy to grow favourably, or is it the economy that leads to consuming energy in the first place. The conservation hypothesis, growth hypothesis, feedback hypothesis and neutrality hypothesis each explains this causal relationship differently. Previous studies have been done on finding the causality between the two, many using co-integration and vector error correction modelling techniques but the results are still mixed. In this study, we intend to apply the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique to investigate the issue at hand in the case of Malaysia for the period of 1971-2012. Malaysia is a good reference for a country which has grown and developed progressively in the Asian region, with its abundance of natural oil and gas as the main drivers of energy sources for the country. Our study brings us to the finding of a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to energy consumption. We also take note on the weak causality from economic growth and energy consumption to energy price. Thus, with the unidirectional finding from economic growth to energy consumption, policy makers are able to formulate effective measures for energy conservations without affecting the economic growth of the country.
    Keywords: Energy, Economic Growth, ARDL, Malaysia
    JEL: C22 C58 Q43
    Date: 2016–01–20
  12. By: William Brock; Anastasios Xepapadeas
    Abstract: This paper is, to our knowledge, the first paper in climate economics to consider the combination of spatial heat transport and polar amplification. We simplified the problem by stratifying the Earth into latitude belts and assuming, as in North et al. (1981), that the two hemispheres were symmetric. Our results suggest that it is possible to build climate economic models that include the very real climatic phenomena of heat transport and polar amplification, and still maintain analytical tractability. We demonstrate the importance of heat transfer and polar amplification in the welfare analysis of climate change, and in particular on the social price of the climate change externality. Furthermore, we show that the effect of heat transfer and polar amplification on climate policy depend upon the interaction of climate component dynamics with the distribution of welfare weights, population, and productive capacities across latitudes. We discuss optimal fossil fuel taxes in a competitive environment with income effects and show that optimal taxes have a spatial structure and are dependent on each latitude�s output. In addition, we characterize the interactions between spatial transport phenomena and the competitive equilibrium price path of tradable permits. Using general power utility functions, we show that an increase in the coefficient of relative risk aversion will reduce the social price of the climate externality.
    Keywords: climate change, heat transport, polar amplification, welfare maximization, fossil fuels, optimal taxation, emissions permits
    JEL: Q54 Q58 C61
    Date: 2016–02–26
  13. By: Kojima,Masami
    Abstract: The steep decline in the world oil price in the last quarter of 2014 slashed fuel price subsidies. Several governments responded by announcing that they would remove subsidies for one or more fuels and move to market-based pricing with full cost recovery. Other governments took advantage of low world prices to increase taxes and other charges on fuels. However, the decision to move to cost recovery and market prices, ending budgetary support, has not been implemented consistently across countries. Policy announcements have varied in the way they were communicated and the level of detail provided. When petroleum product prices bounced back during the first half of 2015, some"reforming"governments failed to raise prices correspondingly. Recent experience suggests that regular and frequent price adjustments, however small?as in Jordan and Morocco?help the government and consumers to get accustomed to fluctuations in world fuel prices and exchange rates. By contrast, freezing prices, even for a few months?for socioeconomic considerations or because the needed adjustments are small enough to be absorbed?increases the risk of reversion to ad hoc pricing and price subsidies. The more formally the decision to move to market-based pricing is communicated, the more public new price announcements, and the higher the frequency of price changes, the more likely the implementation of the announced pricing policy reform will be sustained.
    Keywords: Energy Production and Transportation,Emerging Markets,Oil Refining&Gas Industry,Markets and Market Access,Transport Economics Policy&Planning
    Date: 2016–01–11
  14. By: Frédéric Marty (OFCE)
    Abstract: L’article 194 du TFUE a conféré de nouveaux pouvoirs aux instances européennes notamment dans le domaine de l’énergie. Une politique énergétique peut être menée dans une logique de solidarité afin de garantir des objectifs communs, tels la sécurité d’approvisionnement. Ce faisant le Traité de Lisbonne semble donner de nouveaux leviers à la Commission dans le domaine de l’énergie en addition des politiques de concurrence et environnementale. Cependant, ces possibilités semblent entravées par leur subordination aux Etats membres qui demeurent libres de déterminer leur mix énergétique et leur politique d’approvisionnement extérieur. Ce faisant, la politique de concurrence semble s’avérer le seul levier de mettre en œuvre une politique énergétique européenne. Cependant, dans le même temps, la capacité de l’outil concurrentiel à créer des marchés dans le secteur de l’énergie reste questionnable. Notre article montre sous quelles conditions une action publique européenne basée sur les principes de solidarité et de subsidiarité pourrait répondre aux limites des « energy only markets ». A cette fin, nous nous penchons plus en détail sur la question des contrats de long terme et nous mobilisons le cadre théorique de l’économie des conventions.
    Keywords: Energie; Concurrence; Contrats de long terme; Sécurité d'approvisionnement
    JEL: L94 L13 K21 N74
    Date: 2016–02
  15. By: Shawkat Hammoudeh; Amine Lahiani; Duc Khuong Nguyen; Ricardo M. Sousa
    Date: 2016–02–18
  16. By: Griffin,Peter; Laursen,Thomas Blatt; Robertson,James W.
    Abstract: This paper examines the short- and long-run economic impact of Egypt's energy subsidy reform in July 2014 (without and without compensating transfers for the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution) and the decline in global energy prices, as well as the long-run impact of phasing out the energy subsidies over a 5 year period. The analysis uses a Computable General Equilibrium model with 56 productive sectors, including 11 energy subsectors. The short-run analysis employs a two-stage factor market adjustment, with wages first fixed and then flexible. The long-run analysis is run in a recursive dynamic mode, capturing the impact of improved productivity and increased investment resulting from more efficient allocation of resources and reduction in government deficits. In the short run, the 2014 reforms lead to slightly lower consumption while investment increases strongly and production shifts from highly subsidized energy-intensive sectors such as energy, water and sanitation, and transport to other sectors (notably construction). The impact on overall consumer prices is limited. In the longer run, real GDP growth increases by about one percentage point relative to the baseline before the 2014 reform.
    Keywords: Economic Theory&Research,Energy Production and Transportation,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy and Environment,Transport Economics Policy&Planning
    Date: 2016–02–19
  17. By: Edoardo Croci; Aldo Ravazzi Douvan
    Abstract: Urban road pricing schemes have been designed in order to reduce externalities generated by traffic. Main impacts regard: time loss due to congestion, local pollution, noise; contribution to climate change caused by emissions of GHGs, pavement costs and road damages, increase in accidents risks, extra-fuel consumption, decrease in quality of life. Moreover road pricing schemes generate public revenues. The paper performs a comparative evaluation of the three main experiences of urban road pricing in Europe: London (in operations since 2003), Stockholm (in operations since 2007, after a period of trial in 2006) and Milan (in operations since 2008, with a shift from pollution to congestion charge in 2012). Since their launch, the schemes have been adjusted in terms of amount of charge, area of application and other features. The schemes have been able to reduce negative externalities generated by traffic, such as accidents, congestion and emissions, up to different levels. A comparative analysis of the three schemes is provided. Determinants of differences in the effectiveness of the schemes are evaluated with a particular focus on elasticity of use of private vehicles to charge. The results can be useful to design well targeted congestion charge schemes and to assess their efficacy.
    Keywords: Urban road pricing, Travel demand elasticity, Sustainable mobility
    JEL: H23 R41 R48 Q51 D12
    Date: 2016
  18. By: IWAMOTO Koichi
    Abstract: This paper is the compilation of lectures I have delivered across Japan since Offshore Wind Generation (written by Koichi Iwamoto and published by Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun, Ltd. in December 2012) was published. It mainly analyzes the questions of "What benefits will offshore wind generation bring to the local economy?" and "Will offshore wind generation offer business that my company can get?" because these questions are of more importance to the local economy than discussions on the power market and trends in nuclear power. Because people are not necessarily given an accurate picture of offshore wind generation in Japan, I frequently deliver lectures from a common sense viewpoint shared in the international society. Technological innovation in the field of wind power is impressive. For example, the Walney Offshore Wind Generation Plant, which is located 35 km offshore of northwestern Great Britain and which will be supplied with turbines with an output of 8 MW by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Vestas Wind Systems of Denmark, has a generation capacity of 1,020,000 kW. Therefore, for the first time ever, a wind generation plant with a generation capacity exceeding one million kW will soon begin operating. The cumulative installed capacity of worldwide wind generation was about 415 million kW at the end of 2015, exceeding the installed capacity of nuclear generation. Additionally, an industrial cluster of wind generation creates numerous employment opportunities. In fact, Bremerhaven and Cuxhaven of Germany, Esbjerg of Denmark, and Green Port Hull of Great Britain are attracting wide attention as emerging industrial clusters. Therefore, I have emphasized in my lectures that wind generation is the new leading power source in the world. In Japan, construction of large-scale bases for the wind power industry is under way in areas such as the Hibikinada district of Kitakyushu, Ishikari Bay New Port area in Hokkaido, and Akita. Chiefly, the large project in Kitakyushu is on par with those in Europe, and Kitakyushu is working on this citywide project that greatly benefits its economy. Lastly, I will discuss the importance of the zoning rule and make a proposal regarding the matter.
    Date: 2016–02
  19. By: Mohammad Nor, Karina; Masih, Mansur
    Abstract: The growth of the financial sector such as, the stock market is usually found to be highly correlated with the growth of the real sector of an economy. It is important to examine the existence of the commodity-stock market nexus since there is expectation that commodity prices may influence stock market prices of commodity-based companies. Many studies have investigated this nexus most of them focused on either gold or oil, and there still persists a lack of consensus in the literature. Palm oil is the largest produced vegetable oil in the world. Traditionally, palm oil is an important component of soap, detergent, pharmaceutical products, cosmetics, fuels, food, cooking oil and oleo chemical products. Despite the growing importance of palm oil as an alternative source of cheap and clean energy, not much attention has been given to this “golden fruit”. This study is the first to investigate the dynamic relationship between spot and futures palm oil prices and stock market prices of a major palm oil producer. The methodology employed various unit root tests and Johansen’s cointegration test, followed by long-run structural modelling and vector error-correction modelling, variance decompositions, impulse response functions and persistence profile. The results showed that stock market prices lead spot and futures palm oil prices rather than vice versa for the Malaysian markets. In addition, the findings indicated that the performance of the stock market is dependent on fundamental macroeconomic variables. This has important policy implications in the regulation of the palm oil market whereby stock market performance and fundamental macroeconomic factors are key predictive inputs on the expected performance of the palm oil prices.
    Keywords: palm oil, spot price, futures price, stocks, Malaysia
    JEL: C22 C58 E44
    Date: 2016–01–15
  20. By: Benjamin Beckers; Samya Beidas-Strom
    Abstract: We carry out an ex post assessment of popular models used to forecast oil prices and propose a host of alternative VAR models based on traditional global macroeconomic and oil market aggregates. While the exact specification of VAR models for nominal oil price prediction is still open to debate, the bias and underprediction in futures and random walk forecasts are larger across all horizons in relation to a large set of VAR specifications. The VAR forecasts generally have the smallest average forecast errors and the highest accuracy, with most specifications outperforming futures and random walk forecasts for horizons up to two years. This calls for caution in reliance on futures or the random walk for forecasting, particularly for near term predictions. Despite the overall strength of VAR models, we highlight some performance instability, with small alterations in specifications, subsamples or lag lengths providing widely different forecasts at times. Combining futures, random walk and VAR models for forecasting have merit for medium term horizons.
    Keywords: Oil;Forecasting;VARs, forecasts, prices, random walk, demand, Time-Series Models, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Energy and the Macroeconomy, All Countries,
    Date: 2015–11–25
  21. By: Marek Antosiewicz; Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks; Piotr Lewandowski
    Abstract: Environmental taxes constitute a crucial instrument aimed at reducing resource use through lower production losses, resource-leaner products and more resource-efficient production processes. In this paper we focus on material use and apply a multisector DSGE model to study two types of taxation: tax on material inputs used by industry, energy, construction and transport sectors, and tax on output of these sectors. We allow for endogenous adaption of resource saving technologies. We calibrate the model for the EU27 area using IO matrix. We consider taxation introduced from 2021 and simulate its impact until 2050. We compare the taxes along their ability to induce reduction in material use and raise revenue. We also consider the effect of spending this revenue on reduction of labour taxation. We find that input and output taxation create contrasting incentives and have opposite effects on resource efficiency. The material input tax induces investment in efficiency improving technology which in the long term results in GDP and employment by 15-20% higher in comparison to comparable output tax. We also find that using revenues to reduce taxes on labour has stronger beneficial effects for the input tax.
    Keywords: DSGE model; resource decoupling; technological change; environmental taxes; environmental policy; double dividend
    JEL: C68 Q32 Q43
    Date: 2016–02
  22. By: Sahbi Farhani; Anissa Chaibi; Christophe Rault
    Date: 2016–02–18
  23. By: Carreri, Maria; Dube, Oeindrila
    Abstract: Do natural resources impair institutional outcomes? Existing work studies how natural resources influence the behavior of leaders in power. We study how they influence leaders' rise to power. Our analysis focuses on oil price shocks and local democracy in Colombia, a country mired in civil conflict. We find that when the price of oil rises, legislators affiliated with right-wing paramilitary groups win office more in oil-producing municipalities. Consistent with the use of force to gain power, positive price shocks also induce an increase in paramilitary violence, and reduce electoral competition: fewer candidates run for office, and winners are elected with a wider vote margin. Ultimately, fewer centrist legislators are elected to office, and there is diminished representation at the center. Our findings highlight how natural resources undermine democracy by distorting elections, and suggest that conflict leaves the political sector vulnerable to the resource curse.
    Keywords: conflict; democracy; elections; leaders; Natural resources
    JEL: D72 H11 H70 O12 O13 Q34
    Date: 2016–02
  24. By: Emna Omri (RUDE - Research Unit in Development Economics - University of Sfax, Tunisia); Nouri Chtourou; Damien Bazin (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The massive increase in production and consumption of fossil fuels during the 20th century was accompanied by several problems in economic, social and environmental levels. Thus, the energy as it is produced, distributed and consumed currently does not meet the requirements of sustainable development. Hence it is necessary to use RE that do not emit GHG in order to move toward the sustainable development. Since mid-1980s, Tunisia has implemented its national strategy in the field of RE. To revive the market of solar water heating, the government decided to establish, in 2005, an ambitious program called PROSOL. With the help of case study (PROSOL project), the paper shows that the contribution of RE to the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainable development is significant.
    Keywords: Développement durable,énergies renouvelables,projet PROSOL
    Date: 2015–01–06
  25. By: Rania Jammazi; Duc Khuong Nguyen
    Date: 2016–02–18
  26. By: Schuenemann, Franziska; Thurlow, James; Zeller, Manfred
    Abstract: Biofuel production can have conflicting impacts on economic growth, food and energy security, and natural resources. Understanding these trade-offs is crucial for designing policies that are consistent with the Sustainable Development Goals. This is particularly true in low-income countries, where the need to promote both energy and food security is most pressing. To this end, we develop an integrated modeling framework to simultaneously assess the economic and environmental impacts of producing biofuels in Malawi. We extend earlier studies by incorporating the effects of land use change on crop water use, and the opportunity costs of using scarce agricultural resources for biofuels rather than other export crops. We find that biofuel production is generally pro-poor and reduces food insecurity by raising household incomes. Irrigated outgrower schemes rather than estate farms lead to better economic outcomes, fewer greenhouse gas emissions, and similar crop water requirements. Nevertheless, Malawi must reduce emissions from its ethanol plants in order to access European markets. We also find that the economic and environmental impacts of biofuels are preferable to those of tobacco or soybeans. The European Union has raised the standards expected of biofuel producers, but it should “level the playing field” by applying similar standards to other export crops from developing countries.
    Keywords: water use, land use, energy, biofuels, food security, bioenergy, fuels, natural resources, sustainability, emissions,
    Date: 2016
  27. By: Kenneth Nweke (Senior Lecturer, Dept. of Political Science, Faculty of Social Sciences, Ignatius Ajuru University of Education); Vincent Nyewusira (Ignatius Ajuru University of Education)
    Abstract: Successive governments in Nigeria since 1999 have faced the challenge of whether or not to adopt deregulation policy in the downstream sector of the petroleum industry. In fact, the decision of whether or not to adopt deregulation policy as a panacea for remedying the perennial fuel scarcity and arbitrary price increases in petroleum products has been an albatross around successive governments in Nigeria. This paper interrogates the political economy of deregulation policy in the downstream sector of the petroleum industry in Nigeria since the enthronement of democratic rule in 1999, hence contends that the subsidy regime of successive governments has not addressed the perennial scarcity and arbitrary price increases of petroleum products in the country. The paper maintains that the fuel subsidy regime has been an epitome of corruption as it has failed to address the original intentions of its founding fathers. It is the view of this paper, therefore, that a complete deregulation policy in the downstream sector that will ensure government’s outright removal of fuel subsidy, remains the only antidote to addressing the perennial scarcity and arbitrary price increases of petroleum products by ambitious petroleum marketers in Nigeria. It is by so doing that market forces shall become the major determinants of the prices and distribution of petroleum products for the teeming consumers in Nigeria. The paper concludes that savings that would accrue from fuel subsidy removal could be channelled into addressing the ailing infrastructure and human capital in the country.
    Keywords: Political economy, deregulation policy, down stream sector & petroleum industry
    JEL: A30
  28. By: Tomas Havranek; Roman Horvath; Ayaz Zeynalov
    Abstract: An important question in development studies is how natural resource richness affects long-term economic growth. No consensus answer, however, has yet emerged, with approximately 40% of empirical papers finding a negative effect, 40% finding no effect, and 20% finding a positive effect. Does the literature taken together imply the existence of the so-called natural resource curse? In a quantitative survey of 402 estimates reported in 33 studies, we find that the effect of natural resources on growth is very small when potential publication bias and method heterogeneity are taken into account. Our results also suggest that three aspects of study design are especially effective in explaining the differences in results across studies: 1) including an interaction between natural resources and institutional quality, 2) controlling for the level of investment activity, and 3) distinguishing between different types of natural resources.
    Keywords: Economic growth, institutions, meta-analysis, natural resources, publication selection bias
    JEL: C51 O13 Q30
    Date: 2016–01
  29. By: Juyong Zhang (Dalian Nationalities University)
    Abstract: Campus as an ecosystem in nature has ecological carrying capacity; its health is closely related to the degree of development of the university. The mainstream method of evaluation of ecological level is component analysis method, using this method to calculate the ecological footprint on campus; in the analysis of ecological footprint, six main categories of biological productive area are distinguished: energy, food, garbage, paper, water and transportation. In this paper, we use the field survey and sampling methods to obtain relevant data, while introducing the concept of elasticity, we view the data collected as independent variables. However, some data changes little over time called inelastic, such as food, garbage, paper and so on. Some data fluctuates greatly over time called elastic, such as energy, water and so on. The result of the survey shows that the ecological footprint of energy is the largest. At the end of the text, the paper makes reasonable proposals on how to save food and energy saving.
    Keywords: ecological footprint; Dalian Nationalities University; energy; transportation
  30. By: Mª del Mar Rubio-Varas y Joseba De la Torre (Universidad Pública de Navarra); Joseba De la Torre
    Abstract: In 1972, Henry Kearns, President and Chairman, Export-Import Bank of the United States (Eximbank) visited the Official Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Madrid. The title of his speech “Spain—Eximbank’s Billion Dollar Client” gave notice of the important role that the public American bank had for financing the Spanish purchases of capital equipment: aircrafts, steel mills, satellite grown stations, power plants, etc. The heavy concentration on new power facilities at the time made Spain the fastest growing nuclear power developer in Europe, and the largest nuclear power buyer from the US with Eximbank’s support head-to-head with Japan. No other nation approached these two in that respect. Investigating archival materials from the Eximbank and the National Archives and Record Administration of the United States (NARA), we explore the financial facilities the US provided to the Spanish nuclear program, the size of the authorised credits and its evolution over time. It became apparent that the role of the US in pumping public money for exporting nuclear facilities to the world explain a great deal of the US quasi-monopoly of global nuclear market before the 1980s, and in particular for turning Spain into an early adopter and champion adopter of nuclear technology.
    Keywords: Nuclear energy, Eximbank, export subsidies.
    JEL: N2 N4 N5 N7 Q43 Q48
    Date: 2016–02
  31. By: Marc Joëts
    Date: 2016–02–18
  32. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that decline in oil prices has adversely affected Kuwait’s fiscal and current account balances and slowed growth in 2014–15. Real non-oil GDP growth is projected to slow in 2015 and 2016, and pick up to 4 percent in the medium term, supported by government investment in infrastructure and private investment. The fiscal and external positions are projected to deteriorate further in 2015 and 2016, and improve somewhat over the medium term as oil prices and production recover partially.
    Keywords: Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Fiscal consolidation;Government expenditures;Fiscal policy;Fiscal reforms;Labor market reforms;Banking sector;Bank supervision;Economic indicators;Financial soundness indicators;Staff Reports;Press releases;Kuwait;
    Date: 2015–12–02
  33. By: David Coady; Valentina Flamini; Louis Sears
    Abstract: Understanding who benefits from fuel price subsidies and the welfare impact of increasing fuel prices is key to designing, and gaining public support for, subsidy reform. This paper updates evidence for developing countries on the magnitude of the welfare impact of subsidy reform and its distribution across income groups, incorporating more recent studies and expanding the number of countries. These studies confirm that a very large share of benefits from price subsidies goes to high-income households, further reinforcing existing income inequalities. The results can also help to approximate the welfare impact of subsidy reform for countries where the data necessary for such an analysis is not available.
    Keywords: Developing countries;Fuel subsidy reform, welfare impact, distribution, transport, fuel, subsidies, fuel prices, subsidy, Incidence, All Countries,
    Date: 2015–11–25
  34. By: Audrey Berry (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Y Jouffe (LAB'URBA - LAB'URBA - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Nicolas Coulombel (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - PRES Université Paris-Est); Celine Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the issue of fuel poverty and of its measurement in the transport sector. We seek to identify households who run the risk of facing difficulties if fuel prices increase. We show that fuel poverty indicators from the domestic sector are not satisfactory in this regard. They fail to take into account three specificities of the transport sector: (1) the diversity of travel needs, (2) restriction behaviours, and (3) variable capacities to adapt. We propose a composite indicator that targets factors of vulnerabilities. In contrast to the previous indicators, it does not solely focus on budgetary aspects but also reflects conditions of mobility. Three levels of exposition to rising fuel prices are considered, depending on the combinations of factors. We test this indicator on French data and find that 7,8% of French households are identified fuel poor, a further 7,4% fuel vulnerable and a further 3,7% fuel dependent.
    Keywords: Fuel poverty,Vulnerability,Transport,Measurement
    Date: 2015–08–07
  35. By: Mohamed Arouri; Sahbi Farhani; Muhammad Shahbaz; Frédéric Teulon
    Date: 2016–02–18
  36. By: Khaled Guesmi; Salma Fattoum
    Date: 2016–02–18
  37. By: Fischer, Stanley (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))
    Date: 2016–02–23
  38. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the oil price shock is adversely impacting the economy of Angola. While oil production has recovered following the completion of maintenance work, non-oil GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 2.1 percent in 2015. The economic situation in 2016 is likely to remain challenging as international oil prices are not expected to recover and risks are on the downside. Growth is projected to remain stable at 3.5 percent in 2016, with the oil sector growing by about 4 percent. The non-oil sector is expected to show a small improvement.
    Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa;Angola;exchange, revenue, budget, exchange rate, foreign exchange
    Date: 2015–11–03
  39. By: Varela,Gonzalo J.; Cali,Massimiliano; Pape,Utz Johann; Rojas,Esteban
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of market integration on household consumption using data on seven food and two energy markets across South Sudan. The analysis reveals that markets in South Sudan are highly segmented. Price differences for narrowly defined products, across cities exceed in some cases 100 percent. In addition, price volatility increased substantially following the imposition of the trade restrictions with Sudan. This increase tends to hurt disproportionately the poor, who cannot smooth purchasing decisions over time because of liquidity constraints. Transportation costs explain almost half of the variation in food prices across space, and improving the quality of roads has a large potential to reduce prices in the most expensive towns. On the basis of this price effect, the simulations suggest that bringing all road quality across states to that of primary roads can yield a reduction in poverty from the rate of 51.7 percent in 2009 to between 42.8 and 46.9 percent. These estimates have to be interpreted as conservative, as they do not take into account the second-order effects of road construction from increased trade that will result from better road connectivity.
    Keywords: Access to Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Markets and Market Access,Transport Economics Policy&Planning
    Date: 2016–02–16
  40. By: Erdem Ozluk (Selcuk University)
    Abstract: Recently Turkey and Russia relations are undergoing a serious crisis since the downing of the Russian warplane by Turkish air forces for the violation of the Turkish airspace on 24 November 2015. As a matter of fact, relations between two countries were at the highest level after the end of the Cold War and there was a growing collaboration in terms of political and economic relations between two countries. For example, in 2010, both countries agreed to allow visa-free travel and reached an agreement for building Turkey’s first nuclear power plant. However, because of the regional expansion of Russian power for the last decade, Turkey and Russia has started to hold opposing views on how to overcome regional problems. Especially after the Russian interventionist policies towards first Georgia and Ukraine and then the civil war in Syria, relations between the two countries have sharply deteriorated. Indeed, the ongoing crisis between the two countries is not just related with the civil war in Syria or the Turkish downing of a Russian warplane. Because there have been potential tensions between the two countries in many areas and factors since the end of the Cold War such as Azerbaijan and Armenia relations, Iran and nuclear crisis, transportation routes for hydrocarbon energy supplies, Chechnya in Russia and Kurdish issue in Turkey, geopolitical and military balances in the Black Sea region. The ongoing crisis has escalated in the aftermath the Turkish downing of a Russian warplane. This study argues that the normalization of Russia-Turkey relations in a short time is of utmost importance for the resolution of numerous conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the civil war in Syria and the fight against Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). This study also seeks to answer the following questions; what should be done in order to deescalate the crisis? How this crisis may affect the future of war in Syria in particular and certain problems in the Middle East region in general?
    Keywords: Russia, Turkey, Middle East, War in Syria
    JEL: F50 F51
  41. By: Ken Miyajima
    Abstract: Oil-macro-financial linkages in Saudi Arabia are analyzed by applying panel econometric frameworks (multivariate and vector autoregression) to maceoeconomic and bank-level balance sheet data for 9 banks spanning 1999–2014. Lower growth of oil prices and non-oil private sector output leads to slower credit and deposit growth and higher nonperforming loan ratios, with feedback loops within bank balance sheets which in turn dampens economic activity. U.S. interest rates are not found to be a key determinant.
    Keywords: Oil;Saudi Arabia;Oil prices;Banks;Credit expansion;Non-performing loans;Balance sheets;Panel analysis;Vector autoregression;Macro-financial linkages, nonperforming loans, panel vector autoregression
    Date: 2016–02–12
  42. By: Coon, Randal C.; Olson, Frayne; Bangsund, Dean A.; Hodur, Nancy M.
    Keywords: Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries,
    Date: 2015–12
  43. By: Sergio Camelo; Luciano de Castro; Anthony Papavasiliou; Álvaro Riascos; Shmuel Oren
    Abstract: We introduce a dispatch model of Colombia's independent system operator (XM) in order to study the relative merits of self-commitment vs. centralized unit comment. We capitalize on the transition that took place in 2009 from self-unit commitment to centralize unit commitment and use data from Colombia for the period 2006-2012. In our analysis we simulate a competitive benchmark based on estimated marginal costs, startup costs and opportunity costs of thermal and hydro. We compare the differences between the competitive benchmark and self-commitment for the period 2006-2009 to the differences between the bid-based centralized unit commitment and the competitive benchmark after the transition. Based on these comparisons we estimate changes in deadweight losses due to misrepresentation of cost by bidders and dispatch inefficiency. The results suggest that centralized unit commitment has improved economic efficiency, reducing the relative deadweight loss by at least 3.32%. This result could in part be explained by the observation that, before 2009, there was an underproduction of thermal energy relative to the competitive benchmark and it support the claim that dispatch efficiency has improved after the transition.
    Keywords: Electricity Markets, Self-commitment, Centralized Unit Commitment, Economic Efficiency, Market Power.
    Date: 2016–02–03

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