nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2016‒03‒10
forty-nine papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Two historical changes in the narrative of energy forecasts By Minh Ha-Duong; Franck Nadaud; Martin Jegard
  2. To combine or not to combine? Recent trends in electricity price forecasting By Jakub Nowotarski; Rafal Weron
  3. A Network-based View of the U.S. Energy Sector By Arora, Vipin; Sendich, Elizabeth; Teng, Julia
  4. The European Energy Policy: From Competition to Solidarity? By Frédéric Marty
  5. The sectorial intensity of production of renewable energy sources in Italy:measurement and effects on earnings By Michele Raitano; Eleonora Romano; Pietro Zoppoli
  6. The Joint Dynamics of the Energy Mix, Land Uses and Energy Efficiency Rates During the Transition Toward the Green Economy By Amigues, Jean-Pierre; Moreaux, Michel
  7. Does economic growth matter? Technology-push, demand-pull and endogenous drivers of innovation in the renewable energy industry By Sam, Aflaki; Syed Abul, Basher; Andrea, Masini
  8. Solar energy production: Short-term forecasting and risk management By Cédric Join; Michel Fliess; Cyril Voyant; Frédéric Chaxel
  9. Analysing the interactions between Variable Renewable Energies, electricity storage and grid in long term energy modelling tools By Jacques Després; Patrick Criqui; Silvana Mima; Nouredine Hadjsaid; Isabelle Noirot
  10. The promotion of renewable energy innovation: When state intervention and competition go hand in hand By Lionel Nesta; Francesco Vona
  11. Improved biomass cooking to fight climate change and poverty By Peters, Jörg
  12. Combustible renewables and waste consumption, agriculture, CO2 emissions and economic growth in Brazil By Ben Jebli, Mehdi; Ben Youssef, Slim
  13. Willingness to Pay for Ethanol in Motor Fuel: Evidence from Revealed and Stated Preference for E85 By Kenneth Liao; Sebastien Pouliot
  14. Persistent and transient productive inefficiency in a regulated industry: electricity distribution in New Zealand By Massimo Filippini; William Greene; Giuliano Masiero
  15. A MIP framework for non-convex uniform price day-ahead electricity auctions By Madani, M.; Van Vyve, M.
  16. Development of Policy Impact Assessment Model for the Regulatory Reform Policy of Japanese Electricity Market (Japanese) By KAINOU Kazunari
  17. Comment mesurer la précarité énergétique en matière de transport By Audrey Berry; Céline Guivarch; Yves Jouffe; Nicolas Coulombel
  18. La transition énergétique est-elle favorable aux branches à fort contenu en emploi ? Une approche input-output pour la France By Quentin Perrier; Philippe Quirion
  19. Energy Tax Reform in Time of Crisis - The Case of Energy-Dependent and Open Economies By Emmanuel Combet
  20. The cost of failing to prevent gas supply interruption: a CGE assessment for Peru By Omar O. Chisari; Leonardo J. Mastronardi; Carlos A. Romero; Arturo L. Vásquez Cordano
  21. The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy By Kamiar Mohaddes; Mehdi Raissi
  22. Oil Price shocks and theirs consequences on Sudan’s GDP growth and unemployment rates By Elsiddig Rahma; Noel Perera; Kian Tan
  23. Public Investment in a Developing Country Facing Resource Depletion By Adrian Alter; Matteo Ghilardi; Dalia Hakura
  25. Do inflation expectations propagate the inflationary impact of real oil price shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan survey By Miles Parker
  26. Oil prices and MENA stock markets:New evidence from nonlinear and asymmetric causalities during and after the crisis period By Ahdi Noomen Ajmi; Ghassen El Montasser; Shawkat Hammoudeh; Duc Khuong Nguyen
  27. Oil Price Pass-Through into Inflation: The Evidence from Oil Exporting Countries By Tural Karimli; Nigar Jafarova; Heyran Aliyeva; Salman Huseynov
  28. Volatility spillovers and macroeconomic announcements: evidence from crude oil markets By Aymen Belgacem; Anna Creti; Khaled Guesmi; Amine Lahiani
  29. Crude oil dependence, deindustrialization and economic growth in Nigeria. By George Ike; Henry Okodua; Kemal Bagzibagli
  30. Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intraday data By Benoît Sévi
  31. Volatility Spillovers Between Oil Prices and Stock Returns: A Focus on Frontier Markets By Anissa Chaibi; Mathieu Gomes
  32. Energy price transmissions during extreme movements By Marc Joëts
  33. Macroeconomic and Financial Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Evidence for the Euro Area By Claudio, Morana
  34. Oil price and macroeconomy in India – An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach By Zied Ftiti; Aviral Tiwari; Ibrahim Fatnassi
  35. Kuwait: Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  36. Saudi Arabia: Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  37. Republic of Mozambique: Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  38. Angola: Selected Issues By International Monetary Fund
  39. Un modelo Casi Ideal de Demanda de Combustibles para la Industria de Transporte By John J. García; Daniel Pérez; Marcela Orrego P.; John Mauro Cataño D.
  40. Explicit Solution to an Optimal Extraction Problem with Regime Switching By Giorgio Ferrari; Shuzhen Yang
  41. Supply versus demand-side policies in the presence of carbon leakage and the green paradox By Cathrine Hagem; Halvor Briseid Storrøsten
  42. NOx emissions and productive structure in Spain: An input–output perspective By Vicent Alcántara; Emilio Padilla; Matias Piaggio
  43. Solid fuel use in rural China and its health effects By Hua Liao; Xin Tang; Yi-Ming Wei
  44. Rest in peace Moped, electric scooters are there By Minh Ha-Duong
  45. Preferences and pollution cycles By Stefano Bosi; David Desmarchelier; Lionel Ragot
  46. Exploring the relationship between environmentally related taxes and inequality in income sources: An empirical cross-country analysis By OECD
  47. Comment on ‘Impact of Current Climate Proposals’ By Robert E. T. Ward
  48. Climate and southern Africa's water–energy–food nexus By Declan Conway; Emma Archer van Garderen; Delphine Deryng; Steve Dorling; Tobias Krueger; Willem Landman; Bruce Lankford; Karen Lebek; Tim Osborn; Claudia Ringler; James Thurlow; Tingju Zhu; Carole Dalin
  49. After Paris: Fiscal, Macroeconomic and Financial Implications of Global Climate Change By Mai Farid; Michael Keen; Michael G Papaioannou; Ian W.H. Parry; Catherine A. Pattillo; Anna Ter-Martirosyan

  1. By: Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - Université des Sciences et des Technologies de Hanoi); Franck Nadaud (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Martin Jegard (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: A collection of 417 energy scenarios was assembled and harmonized to compare what they said about nuclear, fossil and renewable energy thirty years from their publication. Based on data analysis, we divide the recent history of the energy forecasting in three periods. The first is defined by a decline in nuclear optimism, approximately until 1990. The second by a stability of forecasts, approximately until 2005. The third by a rise in the forecasted share of renewable energy sources. We also find that forecasts tend to cohere, that is they have a low dispersion within periods compared to the change across periods.
    Keywords: energy,scenario,periodization
    Date: 2016–02–17
  2. By: Jakub Nowotarski; Rafal Weron
    Abstract: Essentially everyone agrees nowadays that electricity spot price forecasting is of prime importance to the energy business. A variety of methods and ideas have been tried over the years, with varying degrees of success. Yet, despite this diversity of models, it is impossible to select one single, most reliable approach. We argue here that combining forecasts – also known as averaging forecasts, aggregating experts, committee machines or ensemble averaging – is an idea worth considering. Using publicly available data from the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and four commonly used time series models, we show that for both point and probabilistic forecasts the quality of predictions can be improved if combined.
    Keywords: Electricity price forecasting; Combining forecasts; Ensemble averaging; Aggregating experts; Probabilistic forecasts
    JEL: C22 C32 C53 Q47
    Date: 2016–01–18
  3. By: Arora, Vipin; Sendich, Elizabeth; Teng, Julia
    Abstract: We describe portions of the U.S input-output tables through the tools of networks analysis—focusing on either energy intensive industries or those that are part of the separate and distinct energy sector. We first represent both energy intensive and energy sector industries visually through network diagrams for the years 1997, 2002, and 2007. Next, we show that the energy sector is generally more densely connected than either energy intensive industries or all industries over those years, and is more likely to have groups of three sub-sectors all linked as well. We then move to the level of individual industries within the broad sectors and find that energy intensive industries have the most in-coming connections on average for these tables. Energy sector ones have fewer, but the number grows over time, as do outgoing connections. Other measures of centrality—closeness and betweenness—vary over time for both the energy sector and energy intensive industries. Specifically, petroleum refining and electricity generation stand out for their centrality, drilling oil and gas wells for its lack of centrality.
    Keywords: network analysis,input/output
    JEL: D85 C67 Q4
  4. By: Frédéric Marty (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - UNS - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: The Art. 194 TFEU has offered new powers to European Union to coordinate Member States policies in the field of energy policy according to a logic of solidarity in order to achieve common goods, as the security of supply. This article, introduced by the Treaty of Lisbon, seems to offer to the Commission new levy to play in the energy policy field additionally to competition and environmental policies. However, this levy seems to be hindered by its subordination to Member States choices in terms of energy mix and external policy. The competition policy might appear as the only way to implement a European energy policy. However, the capacity of competition law enforcement to build energy market remains questionable. Our paper investigates to what extent a European policy based on solidarity and subsidiarity principles might address the difficulties of “energy only markets” to provide these common goods. To this end, we particularly investigate the case of long-term contracts and we rely on an economics of conventions theoretical framework.
    Abstract: L’article 194 du TFUE a conféré de bouveaux pouvoirs aux instances européennes notamment dans le domaine de l’énergie. Une politique énergétique peut être menée dans une logique de solidarité afin de garantir des objectifs communs, tels la sécurité d’approvisionnement. Ce faisant le Traité de Lisbonne semble donner de nouveaux leviers à la Commission dans le domaine de l’énergie en addition des politiques de concurrence et environnementale. Cependant, ces possibilités semblent entravées par leur subordination aux Etats membres qui demeurent libres de déterminer leur mix énergétique et leur politique d’approvisionnement extérieur. Ce faisant, la politique de concurrence semble s’avérer le seul levier de mettre en œuvre une politique énergétique européenne. Cependant, dans le même temps, la capacité de l’outil concurrentiel à créer des marchés dans le secteur de l’énergie reste questionnable. Notre article montre sous quelles conditions une action publique européenne basée sur les principes de solidarité et de subsidiarité pourrait répondre aux limites des « energy only markets ». A cette fin, nous nous penchons plus en détail sur la question des contrats de long terme et nous mobilisons le cadre théorique de l’économie des conventions.
    Keywords: energy,competition,long-term contracts,security of supply,énergie, concurrence, contrats de long terme, sécurité d’approvisionnement
    Date: 2016–02–12
  5. By: Michele Raitano; Eleonora Romano; Pietro Zoppoli
    Abstract: The literature on renewable energy sources (RES) does not provide a shared methodology to measure the sectorial intensity of production linked to RES. Furthermore, empirical evidence on the relationship between RES intensity of production and workers’ earnings is scant. The aim of this paper is to fill in these literature gaps providing, on the one hand, an original microdata-based methodology to measure the RES sectorial intensity of production, and, on the other hand, estimating, through panel data techniques, the relationship between RES sectorial intensity of production and earnings for a representative sample of Italian workers in the period 2002-2009. Focusing on the case of Italy in the first decade of the 21th century is very relevant given that in that period Italy promoted one of the most generous renewable support schemes worldwide. Our main findings are the following: i) the RES sectorial intensity of production in Italy largely increased in 2008-2009; ii) on average, the RES sectorial intensity of production does not affect earnings levels; iii) remarkably, a clear skill-premium effect emerges when the RES sectorial intensity of production increases.
    Keywords: Renewable energy sources earnings inequality, skill-biased technical change, RES support scheme, Italy
    JEL: Q4 J31 L11 D41
    Date: 2016–02
  6. By: Amigues, Jean-Pierre; Moreaux, Michel
    Abstract: The global economy produces energy from two sources: a polluting nonrenewable resource and a renewable resource. Transforming crude energy into ready-to-use energy services requires costly processes and more efficient energy transformation rates are more costly to achieve. Renewable energy is in competition with food production for land acreage but the food productivity rate of land can also be improved at some cost. The exploitation of non-renewable energy releases polluting emissions in the atmosphere. To avoid catastrophic climate damages, the pollution stock is mandated to stay below a given cap. In the interesting case where the economy would be constrained by the carbon cap at least temporarily, we show the following. When the economy is not constrained by the cap, the efficiency rates of energy transformation increase steadily until the transition toward the ultimate green economy; when renewable energy is exploited, its land acreage rises at the expense of food production; food productivity increases together with the land rent but food production drops; the prices of useful energy and food increase and renewables substitute for non-renewable energy. During the constrained phase, the economy follows a constant path of prices, quantities, efficiency rates, food productivity and land rent, a phenomenon we call the generalized ceiling paradox.
    Keywords: energy efficiency; carbon pollution; non-renewable resources; renewable resources; land use
    Date: 2016–02
  7. By: Sam, Aflaki; Syed Abul, Basher; Andrea, Masini
    Abstract: This paper aims to contribute to the longstanding technology-push vs. demand-pull debate and to the literature on renewable energy policy assessment. We argue that in addition to the traditional push–pull dichotomy, the drivers of technological change must be differentiated by whether they are exogenous or endogenous to the economic system and must be assessed with respect to their contribution to both the creation and the diffusion of innovation. We apply this perspective to study innovation in the renewable energy (RE) industry in 15 European Union countries from 1990 to 2012. Using different panel data estimators, we find that public R&D investments, policies supporting RE and per capita income all have a positive effect on either innovation creation or diffusion, whereas the variability of policy support has a negative impact on diffusion. However, impacts are heterogeneous and differ depending on the innovation dimension considered. Most importantly, we find that economic growth is a stronger driver of RE diffusion than technology-push or exogenous demand-pull mechanisms, whereas it is relatively ineffective at stimulating innovation creation. The effect of economic growth on RE diffusion exhibits a nonlinear, U-shaped pattern that resonates with the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis. RE penetration remains negligible at low levels of growth whereas it increases sharply only after income per capita has reached a given threshold. This effect has both a direct cause (with increased affluence demand for environmental quality rises) and an indirect cause (with increased affluence expensive RE policies become more affordable and get implemented more extensively). Our findings have implications for policy making. They suggest that for RE diffusion to increase, innovation policies should be carefully balanced. Government action should be directed not only at shielding renewables from competition with fossil fuel technologies, but also at stimulating aggregated demand and economic growth.
    Keywords: Deployment policy, Technological innovation, Renewable Energy, Environmental Kuznets Curve, Nonstationary Panel.
    JEL: C23 O31 O33 O38 O44
    Date: 2016–02–29
  8. By: Cédric Join (CRAN - Centre de Recherche en Automatique de Nancy - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, INRIA Lille - Nord Europe - INRIA, AL.I.E.N. - ALgèbre pour Identification & Estimation Numériques - ALIEN); Michel Fliess (LIX - Laboratoire d'informatique de l'École polytechnique [Palaiseau] - Polytechnique - X - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, AL.I.E.N. - ALgèbre pour Identification & Estimation Numériques - ALIEN); Cyril Voyant (SPE - Sciences pour l'environnement - Université Pascal Paoli - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Hôpital d'Ajaccio); Frédéric Chaxel (CRAN - Centre de Recherche en Automatique de Nancy - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Abstract: Electricity production via solar energy is tackled via short-term forecasts and risk management. Our main tool is a new setting on time series. It allows the definition of "confidence bands" where the Gaussian assumption, which is not satisfied by our concrete data, may be abandoned. Those bands are quite convenient and easily implementable. Numerous computer simulations are presented.
    Keywords: confidence bands,normality tests,risk,volatility,Solar energy,intelligent knowledge-based systems,time series,forecasts,persistence
    Date: 2016–06–28
  9. By: Jacques Després (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LITEN - Laboratoire d'Innovation pour les Technologies des Energies Nouvelles et les nanomatériaux - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble 2 - CEA, G2ELab - Laboratoire de Génie Electrique de Grenoble - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Patrick Criqui (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Silvana Mima (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Nouredine Hadjsaid (G2ELab - Laboratoire de Génie Electrique de Grenoble - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Isabelle Noirot (CEA/LITEN/DTNM/LT - CEA)
    Abstract: Energy systems are changing worldwide: new energy policies promote more sustainable energy productions, including Variable Renewable Energy sources (VREs) such as wind or solar. The long-term implications of the variability and relative unpredictability of these non dispatchable energy sources need to be assessed, for example with energy scenarios. Indeed, electricity is not a homogeneous good: its value depends on the time, space and how variable a production is. Long-term energy models are used, VREs integration challenges being a hot topic in energy modelling. An assessment of long-term energy models is necessary to understand how they represent the specific constraints of VREs on the rest of the power system. Therefore a new typology is proposed for comparing both long-term energy models and power sector models. This comparison shows that – despite all the recent modelling efforts – no long-term energy model represents in detail all the impacts of VREs on the power sector. For example, the sequential representation of the electricity storage operation is too precise for many long-term models. Therefore we develop a dedicated new power sector module, EUCAD (European Unit Commitment And Dispatch). The particularity of the work is that it is connected to POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems), one of the most technology-detailed long-term energy models. We present the first results of this new detailed electricity module.
    Keywords: Long term energy modelling tool,economic dispatch,electricity storage
    Date: 2014–11–20
  10. By: Lionel Nesta (OFCE); Francesco Vona (OFCE)
    Abstract: This policy brief addresses the issue of the complementarity of policies supporting renewable energy and market competition in fostering green innovation. Innovation is commonly regarded as the best answer to sustaining current life standards while overcoming severe environmental concerns. This is especially relevant in the case of energy, where increasing resource scarcity calls for the rapid development of alternative energy sources, notably renewable energy. 2) Although as of today, renewable energy (RE henceforth) cannot compete with fossil fuel in terms of production costs, impressive technological progress has paved the way to new promising sources such as biomass, solar and wind, among others. 3) Countries too have developed areas of specialization in specific types of renewable energy sources: for example, Denmark has established a strong technological advantage in wind technologies, Sweden and Germany have specialized in bioenergy, Germany and Spain in solar, Norway and Austria in Hydropower. France, with its specialization in nuclear energy, seems to be lagging behind in RE innovation, as compared with other major players such as the USA or Germany.
    Keywords: Renewable energy; Green innovation; Market competition
    JEL: Q2 Q4
    Date: 2014–10
  11. By: Peters, Jörg
    Abstract: Inefficient firewood and charcoal usage contributes massively to global greenhouse gas emissions and causes four million mortal diseases a year: Relative to other climate protection measures, public investments in the dissemination of improved biomass cooking stoves provide a very effective low cost measure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. More than three billion people in developing countries rely on inefficient cooking stoves fuelled by firewood and charcoal. Improved cookstoves have the potential to reduce greenhouse gas abatement costs to only 3 Euro per ton of CO2 equivalent and at the same time alleviate poverty.
    Date: 2015
  12. By: Ben Jebli, Mehdi; Ben Youssef, Slim
    Abstract: This paper employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and Granger causality tests to examine the dynamic causal links between per capita combustible renewables and waste (CRW) consumption, agricultural value added (AVA), carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and real gross domestic product (GDP) for the case of Brazil, spanning the period 1980-2011. The Fisher statistic of the Wald test confirms the existence of long-run cointegration between the considered variables. Short-run empirical findings reveal that there is a unidirectional causality running from agriculture to CO2 emissions and to GDP. However, there is long-run bidirectional causality between all considered variables. The ARDL long-run estimates show that both CRW consumption and AVA contribute to increase economic growth and to decrease CO2 emissions. Agricultural production and CRW consumption seem to play substitutable roles in the Brazilian economy as increasing CRW consumption reduces AVA in the long-run, and vice versa. In addition, economic growth increases agricultural production at the expense of CRW production. We recommend that Brazil should continue to encourage agricultural and biofuels productions. The actual substitutability between agricultural and biofuels production should be reduced or even stopped by encouraging second-generation biofuels and discouraging first-generation biofuels. This may be done by policies of subsidization or taxation, encouraging R&D, and giving competitive credits.
    Keywords: Autoregressive distributed lag; Granger causality; combustible renewables and waste; agricultural value added; Brazil.
    JEL: C32 O13 O54 Q42 Q54
    Date: 2016–02–24
  13. By: Kenneth Liao; Sebastien Pouliot (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD))
    Abstract: This paper estimates the relative preferences of motorists for E10 and E85 in different regions of the United States. We conducted an intercept survey of motorists with flex-fuel vehicles at E85 fuel stations in Iowa, Colorado, Oklahoma, Arkansas and California. The information collected includes prices observed at fuel stations, fuel choices by flex motorists, and responses to a series of opinion questions about ethanol and gasoline. We also proposed a hypothetical scenario to each motorist where either the price of the fuel selected was increased or the price of the fuel not selected was decreased. We estimate fuel preferences first using the revealed preference data from the observed choices and second using the stated preference data from the hypothetical price scenario. The empirical models correct for endogenous stratification within the sample and for endogeneity from unobservable demand shifters that carry over to the stated preference empirical model. We find that motorists significantly discount E85 compared to E10 even when adjusting for the different energy content of the two fuels and that the distribution of willingness to pay for E85 does not vary significantly between regions, except that flex motorists in California are willing to pay more for E85.
    Keywords: Ethanol, Gasoline, Renewable Fuel Standard, Willingness to pay. JEL codes: Q18, Q41, Q42.
    Date: 2016–03
  14. By: Massimo Filippini (Institute of Economics (IdEP), University of Lugano; Department of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zurich, Switzerland); William Greene (Department of Economics, Stern School of Business, New York University, USA); Giuliano Masiero (Department of Management, Information and Production Engineering (DIGIP), University of Bergamo, Italy; Institute of Economics (IdEP), University of Lugano, Switzerland)
    Abstract: The productive efficiency of a firm can be decomposed into two parts, one persistent and one transient. So far, most of the cost efficiency studies estimated frontier models that provide either the transient or the persistent part of productive efficiency. This distinction seems to be appealing also for regulators. During the last decades, public utilities such as water and electricity have witnessed a wave of regulatory reforms aimed at improving efficiency through incentive regulation. Most of these regulation schemes use benchmarking, namely measuring companies' efficiency and rewarding them accordingly. The purpose of this study is to assess the level of persistent and transient efficiency in an electricity sector and to investigate their implications under price cap regulation. Using a theoretical model, we show that an imperfectly informed regulator may not disentangle the two parts of the cost efficiency; therefore, they may fail in setting optimal efficiency targets. The introduction of minimum quality standards may not offer a valid solution. To provide evidence we use data on 28 New Zealand electricity distribution companies between 1996 and 2011. We estimate a total cost function using three stochastic frontier models for panel data. We start with the random effects model (RE) proposed by Pitt and Lee (1981) that provides information on the persistent part of the cost effciency. Then, we apply the true random effects model (TRE) proposed by Greene (2005a, 2005b) that provides information on the transient part. Finally, we use the generalized true random effects model (GTRE) that allows for the simultaneous estimation of both transient and persistent efficiency. We find weak evidence that persistent efficiency is associated to higher quality, and wrong efficiency targets are associated to lower quality compliance.
    Keywords: CCost efficiency, Regulation, Persistent and transient productive efficiency, Electricity distribution
    JEL: C1 C23 D24
    Date: 2016–02
  15. By: Madani, M. (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium); Van Vyve, M. (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)
    Abstract: It is well-known that a market equilibrium with uniform prices often does not exist in non-convex day-ahead electricity auctions. We consider the case of the non-convex, uniform- price Pan-European day-ahead electricity market ”PCR” (Price Coupling of Regions), with non-convexities arising from so-called complex and block orders. Extending previous results, we propose a new primal-dual framework for these auctions, which has applications in both economic analysis and algorithm design. The contribution here is threefold. First, from the algorithmic point of view, we give a non-trivial exact (i.e. not approximate) linearization of a non-convex ’minimum income condition’ that must hold for complex orders arising from the Spanish market, avoiding the introduction of any auxiliary variables, and allowing us to solve market clearing instances involving most of the bidding products proposed in PCR using off-the-shelf MIP solvers. Second, from the economic analysis point of view, we give the first MILP formulations of optimization problems such as the maximization of the traded volume, or the minimization of opportunity costs of paradoxically rejected block bids. We first show on a toy example that these two objectives are distinct from maximizing welfare. We also recover directly a previously noted property of an alternative market model. Third, we provide numerical experiments on realistic large-scale instances. They illustrate the efficiency of the approach, as well as the economics trade-offs that may occur in practice.
    Keywords: Day-ahead electricity market auctions, Non-convexities, Mixed Integer Pro- gramming, Market Coupling, Equilibrium Prices
    Date: 2015–04–01
  16. By: KAINOU Kazunari
    Abstract: After the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in March 2011, the Government of Japan strongly began promoting regulatory reform policy of Japanese electricity industry including perfect deregulation of retail sales of electricity after April 2016. In the policy, they point out important aspects of regulatory reform such as promotion of wide range electricity transmission and trading, short-term competition based on merit order and long-term investment based on power generator investment, and consumer protection by interim regulation of electricity tariff cap, but it is important to provide tools to enable comprehensive and quantitative policy impact evaluation and assessment to support regulators. The author established numerical simulation model that enables to quantify electricity equilibrium prices for regions, twenty four hours based on demand and merit-order supply, and also able to quantify investment return, power generation market entry feasibility, energy consumption and carbon emission. Then the author checked the model's accuracy with sensitivity analysis of world fossil fuel price change and regional electricity demand change. The author finally tried policy impact assessment for interim electricity tariff regulation, nuclear reactor safety regulation for old reactors and "Feed-in-tariff" systems for solar photovoltaic cell origin electricity.
    Date: 2016–03
  17. By: Audrey Berry (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Yves Jouffe (LAB'URBA - LAB'URBA - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Nicolas Coulombel (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - PRES Université Paris-Est)
    Abstract: Si des indicateurs existent pour quantifier la précarité énergétique dans le logement, leur simple transposition au domaine du transport n’est pas satisfaisante. Afin de mieux identifier les ménages vulnérables à une hausse des prix des carburants, un « indicateur Composite » est proposé. Il permet de mieux refléter les différents facteurs qui contraignent la mobilité des ménages et leurs possibilités d’adaptation.
    Keywords: Mobilité des ménages,Précarité énergétique,Indicateur,Dépenses des ménages
    Date: 2015–05–01
  18. By: Quentin Perrier (CIRED, Engie); Philippe Quirion (CIRED, CNRS)
    Abstract: Dans le débat public sur la transition énergétique en France, l’emploi occupe une place prépondérante. Nous calculons, pour l’économie française en 2010, le contenu en emploi et en gaz à effet de serre des différentes branches, c’est-à-dire le nombre d’emplois et de tonnes-équivalent-CO2 par million d’euros de demande finale. Nous utilisons pour cela le tableau entrées-sorties au niveau le plus désagrégé disponible (64 branches). Nous développons et appliquons ensuite une méthodologie originale pour décomposer les écarts de contenu en emploi entre branches en cinq facteurs : le taux d’importations de produits finaux, le taux d’importations de consommations intermédiaires, les taux de taxes et subventions, les niveaux de salaire et la part de la rémunération du travail dans la valeur ajoutée. Enfin, nous étudions certaines substitutions interbranches qui découleraient d’une transition énergétique visant à réduire les émissions de gaz à effet de serre. Les résultats sont les suivants. Premièrement, un contenu en emploi plus élevé d’une branche s’explique, en moyenne et par ordre d’importance, par des salaires plus faibles, des importations plus faibles de produits finaux, une part plus importante du travail dans la valeur ajoutée, des importations plus faibles de consommations intermédiaires, et en dernier lieu par des taxes plus faibles. Deuxièmement, parmi les branches dont le contenu en gaz à effet de serre est élevé, celles qui présentent en même temps un faible contenu en emploi (électricité et industrie lourde) sont couvertes par le système européen de quotas de gaz à effet de serre. A l’inverse, celles qui présentent en même temps un fort contenu en emploi (agriculture, agroalimentaire et transport terrestre) ne sont pas couvertes par une politique climatique – la crainte d’un impact négatif sur l’emploi constituant une explication possible. Troisièmement, la transition énergétique implique des déplacements interbranches de demande finale que nous identifions. Ces substitutions favorisent des branches présentant un contenu en emploi plus élevé. Ces augmentations de contenu en emploi s’expliquent, mais en partie seulement, par des salaires plus élevés dans les branches amenées à réduire leur activité.
    Keywords: Emploi, Transition énergétique, Emissions de gaz à effet de serre, Substitutions intersectorielles, Input-output
    JEL: E2 Q5 O13
    Date: 2016–02
  19. By: Emmanuel Combet (Centre Internal de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED))
    Abstract: Many arguments against higher energy taxes and environmental pricing assume that a unilateral reform will necessary harm the production costs and the purchasing power of households, and therefore, in the aftermath of the crisis, exacerbate the economic downturn. This paper considers the most extreme arguments which assume that no substitution possibilities away from energy are available in the short to medium run. Unemployment is due to non-clearing wages in the labour market and a shortage of demand in the product market. Under such circumstances, however, a tax shift from labour to energy can increase employment if external trade is sufficiently sensitive to production costs and if the reform succeeds in shifting the tax burden away from production costs to the final consumers’ incomes. When external trade is less sensitive to production costs, what matters the most is the domestic market. In that case, the effect is positive only if wages adjust to compensate the higher final energy bills of consumers, and thus, maintain the level of internal demand.
    Keywords: Optimal Price Adjustment, Energy Policy, Tax Reform, General Equilibrium, Uncertainty
    JEL: D50 H20 Q43
    Date: 2016–02
  20. By: Omar O. Chisari (Universidad Argentina de la Empresa and Conicet); Leonardo J. Mastronardi (Universidad Argentina de la Empresa); Carlos A. Romero (Universidad Argentina de la Empresa); Arturo L. Vásquez Cordano (OSINERGMIN and GĚRENS Graduate School)
    Abstract: Since 2000, there has been a noticeable progress in social and economic indicators of Peru. Even though the country risk has diminished dramatically, several threats remain. One of the key dangers is the possibility of involuntary (transitory or permanent) interruptions of the natural gas pipeline transportation system. Shortages of natural gas due to pipelines failures can wreak havoc on the Peruvian economy because it is a basic input for domestic manufacturing and household energy consumption, and because it generates important sources of revenues for the government. Given the significant endowments of natural gas reserves in Peru (Camisea gas field) and the relevance that this fuel has taken in the Peruvian energy matrix and the national economy, it is important to analyze the impact that a transportation constraint on gas flows could have for the domestic consumers, as well as for LNG exports. Earthquakes, unexpected social unrest or intentional actions could interrupt the service of some of the fundamental pipelines of the grid, generating adverse impacts on the stability of the Peruvian economy. One pipeline with three branches connects the upstream to the distribution centers. To have a quantitative appraisal of the cost of disruption we built a CGE model for Peru, containing 26 sectors, two households (Rich and poor), a government and the rest of the world. To take into account the economy wide impact of the interruption of gas supply, it is necessary to construct a model that gives the economic value of the infrastructure considering modifications of relative prices, markets reactions and income effects. This assessment can be also used to evaluate projects of protection and adaptation of the infrastructure. We simulate different scenarios considering the three most important branches of the Camisea pipeline. The results show that those shocks would represent an important decline of GDP in the short run when substitution is limited (about 51% in annual terms or 0.14% by day) and an abrupt reduction of welfare for households. The estimated daily cost is in the range of 227 million of US dollars for the worst case scenario.
    Date: 2016–02
  21. By: Kamiar Mohaddes; Mehdi Raissi
    Abstract: This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through imposing dynamic sign restrictions on the impulse responses of the model. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to a U.S. supply-driven oil price shock, with real GDP increasing in both advanced and emerging market oil-importing economies, output declining in commodity exporters, inflation falling in most countries, and equity prices rising worldwide. Overall, our results suggest that following the U.S. oil revolution, with oil prices falling by 51 percent in the first year, global growth increases by 0.16 to 0.37 percentage points. This is mainly due to an increase in spending by oil importing countries, which exceeds the decline in expenditure by oil exporters.
    Keywords: Western Hemisphere;United States;Tight oil, shale oil, fracking revolution, oil price decline, oil supply, global macroeconometric modeling, international business cycle, oil, prices, oil prices, price, oil production, Time-Series Models, International Business Cycles, Forecasting and Simulation, Forecasting and Simulation, Energy and the Macroeconomy, and international business cycle.,
    Date: 2015–12–10
  22. By: Elsiddig Rahma (Northumbria University at Newcastle upon Tyne); Noel Perera (Northumbria University); Kian Tan (Northumbria University)
    Abstract: Since the advent of oil production and export in late 1999, Sudan economy became more reliant on oil exports proceeds. This situation has exposed the economy to the negative effect of oil price fluctuations. In general, oil exporting countries exhibit positive impact on their economy to oil price increase, while oil importing economies suffer. Unlike developing economies, there is paucity of research in developing countries with regards to the relationship between macro-economy and oil price shocks. In this regard, Sudan has been neglected from serious studies related to oil price shocks. This research attempts to contribute towards filling this gap. In doing so, Vector Auto-Regression model is employed to investigate the impact of oil price shocks on the real GDP growth and unemployment rates over the period 2000 - 2014. The Granger causality test suggests that unemployment has statistically and significantly influenced real GDP growth. Results from the Impulse Response Functions and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition analysis suggest that decrease in oil price has a greater influence on GDP growth. Interestingly, oil price decrease has a significant positive impact on unemployment rate.
    Keywords: VAR model, GDP growth, Unemployment rate, Sudan.
    JEL: C32 E00 F43
  23. By: Adrian Alter; Matteo Ghilardi; Dalia Hakura
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the tradeoffs between savings, debt and public investment in the Republic of Congo, a developing country with looming oil exhaustibility concerns. Our results highlight the risks to fiscal and capital sustainability of oil exporting countries from large scaling-up in public investment and oil price volatility in view of a projected decline in the oil revenue to GDP ratio. However, structural reforms that improve the efficiency of public investment can allow for a relatively faster buildup of sustainable public capital and sustain higher non-oil growth without adversely affecting the debt ratio or savings. Moreover, we show that even if a government pursues prudent fiscal policy that preserves resource wealth and debt sustainability in the face of exhaustible and volatile resource revenues, low public investment quality in the form of a misallocation of resources can hinder attainment of sustainable public capital and positive non-oil growth.
    Keywords: Debt sustainability;Public Capital, Investment Efficiency, Project Selection, investment, public investment, debt, revenues, revenue, International Lending and Debt Problems, Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development, Government Policy, All Countries,
    Date: 2015–11–10
    Abstract: Oil price fluctuation is a cause of concern for most of the economies of the world including South Africa. The premise is that since oil consumption is regarded as one of the major determinants of the economic activities in any country, therefore the price fluctuations have a potential of slowing down the economic growth. The purpose of this study is to analyse the influences of oil price changes on economic growth in South Africa. Determining such a relationship will not only be helpful to the academic community, but also to the policy makers and the international community. The study utilises secondary data to examine quarterly time series data from the year 1990Q1-2014Q1. Several sources of data (websites) like SARB, Quantec, and International Monetary Funds, among others, were considered to find the most relevant data. The model was estimated by using a cointegrating vector autoregressive frame work and it was passed through a battery of diagnostic and stability test. The Generalised Impulse Response Function was employed to examine the dynamic relations among the variables under study. The results show that there is a positive relationship between economic growth and oil prices fluctuations.
    Keywords: Oil prices, Economic Growth, cointegrating vector autoregressive, Generalised Impulse Response Function, South Africa.
    JEL: C50 C54 B41
  25. By: Miles Parker (Reserve Bank of New Zealand)
    Abstract: This paper uses a survey of 1281 New Zealand exporters to investigate the role of firm characteristics in setting export prices. Larger, and more pro-ductive firms, are more likely to differentiate prices across markets. Primary sector firms are more likely to price to market than firms in other sectors, even taking into account other firm characteristics. This contrasts sharply with the commonly-held view that the price of these products is determined on the international market. In a further contribution to the literature, we find that service sector firms can also price to market, at similar rates to manufacturers.
    Date: 2016–02
  26. By: Ahdi Noomen Ajmi; Ghassen El Montasser; Shawkat Hammoudeh; Duc Khuong Nguyen
    Date: 2016–02–18
  27. By: Tural Karimli (Center for Research and Development, Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Nigar Jafarova (Center for Research and Development, Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Heyran Aliyeva (Center for Research and Development, Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan); Salman Huseynov (Center for Research and Development, Central Bank of the Republic of Azerbaijan)
    Abstract: This paper evaluates different channels of oil price pass through into inflation for the countries Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia. We propose a methodology to disentangle the effects of different channels after an oil price shock hits international markets. We measure the relative importance of the two distinct channels through which oil price shocks are transmitted into inflation in these economies. For that, we employ an approach which is in the spirit of the methodology proposed by Sims and Zha (1995). The empirical evidence shows that the level of inflation in these oil-exporting countries responds significantly to oil price shocks. The fiscal and cost channels are major amplifiers of the effects of oil price shocks on inflation. By providing new evidence from emerging oil-exporting countries, the paper also has important policy implications on the maintenance of price stability by central banks.
    Date: 2016–02–21
  28. By: Aymen Belgacem; Anna Creti; Khaled Guesmi; Amine Lahiani
    Date: 2016–02–18
  29. By: George Ike (Eastern Mediterranean University.); Henry Okodua (Covenant University); Kemal Bagzibagli (Eastern Mediterranean University)
    Abstract: Crude oil is a commodity of very great value. Its utility in almost all the sectors of 21st century economies is not substitutable as of yet. That is why its demand is relatively inelastic. Crude oil as a natural resource is supposed to stir economic growth and propagate overall development for countries that are lucky enough to be endowed with this commodity. However recent and past empirical research in this area has shown that resource rich countries develop slower than resource poor countries and that resource dependence has a negative relationship with economic growth. One of the mechanism of transmission is through the crowding out of the manufacturing and agricultural sectors through the process of direct and indirect de-industralization. In light of these developments this research primarily aims to capture the relationship between oil dependence the manufacturing sector and economic growth in Nigeria. Utilizing the Autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing cointegration techniques a model was constructed, oil dependence was proxied as the ratio of oil rents to GDP and it was discovered that oil dependence had a significant negative relationship with GDP which is robust to the 2 specified models . Also the manufacturing sector had no significant relationship with GDP in the long run but had a positive significant relationship with GDP in the short run. This gives ample evidence to the existence of the dutch disease in Nigeria. The study recommended the sterilization of oil revenues abroad and the development of Foreign Direct Investment through the fostering of Incentives to multinationals in order to reduce the negative impacts of crude oil instigated capital inflow and oil price shocks in the Nigerian economy.
    Keywords: Bounds Testing,Co-integration,Crude Oil, De-industrialization , Dutch disease, Economic growth.
    JEL: O13 O40 Q33
  30. By: Benoît Sévi
    Date: 2016–02–18
  31. By: Anissa Chaibi; Mathieu Gomes
    Date: 2016–02–18
  32. By: Marc Joëts
    Date: 2016–02–18
  33. By: Claudio, Morana
    Abstract: The paper investigates the macroeconomic and financial effects of oil prices shocks in the euro area since its creation in 1999, with a special focus on the recent slump. The analysis is carried out episode by episode, within a time-varying parameter framework, consistent with the view that "not all the oil price shocks are alike", yet without imposing any a priori identification assumption. We find evidence of recessionary effects triggered not only by oil price hikes, but also by oil price slumps in some cases, likewise for the most recent episode, which is also rising deflation risk and financial distress. In addition through uncertainty effects, the current slump might then be depressing aggregate demand by increasing the real interest rate, as ECB monetary policy is already conducted at the zero lower bound. The increase in real money balances following the slump points to the accommodation of the shock by the ECB, concurrent with the implementation of the Quantitative Easing policy (Q.E.). Yet, in so far as Q.E. failed to generate inflationary expectations within the current and expected environment of soft oil prices, the case for a more expansionary use of fiscal policy than in the past would become compelling, in order to counteract the deflationary and recessionary threats to the euro area.
    Keywords: oil price shocks, oil price-macroeconomy relationship, risk factors, semiparametric dynamic conditional correlation model, time-varying parameter models
    JEL: E30 E50 C32
    Date: 2016–02–24
  34. By: Zied Ftiti; Aviral Tiwari; Ibrahim Fatnassi
    Date: 2016–02–18
  35. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Selected Issues paper analyzes energy price reform in Kuwait. It emphasizes that Kuwait should take advantage of current low global energy prices to strengthen efforts to reform domestic energy prices. In the longer term, this would benefit growth by increasing efficiency in the economy and creating space for higher public and private investment. In the short-term, one-off effects on inflation should be manageable. Productive activities more sensitive to energy costs, particularly the transport sector, would be able to adjust to higher energy prices more easily if the reform is gradual.
    Keywords: Energy sector;Energy prices;Electric power;Consumption;Tariffs;Labor markets;Banking sector;Real estate prices;Nonbank financial sector;Selected Issues Papers;Kuwait;
    Date: 2015–12–02
  36. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Selected Issues paper assesses the importance of oil and interest rate spillovers for Saudi Arabia. Oil prices have fallen by more than 40 percent since mid-2014 while the Federal Reserve is expected in the coming months to begin raising its policy rate at the beginning of a gradual tightening cycle. Given the importance of oil to the economy and the peg of the riyal to the U.S. dollar, these are two key developments for Saudi Arabia. Although a temporary drop in oil prices would likely have little effect on the economy and banks given the financial cushions that have been built-up, a longer-lasting period of low oil prices would have a more significant impact.
    Keywords: Middle East;Saudi Arabia;oil prices, interest, revenues, interest rates, oil price
    Date: 2015–10–15
  37. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Selected Issues paper examines the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of natural gas project for Mozambique. Results, which are based on the IMF Fiscal Analysis of Resource Industries model, suggest that, by the mid-2020s, half of the country’s output will be generated by natural gas. However, the fiscal revenues from the projects will remain moderate until the mid-2020s because of large depreciation costs for gas liquefaction facilities. Although the economic potential emerging from the projects is tremendous, macroeconomic and fiscal implications are quite sensitive to international commodity price developments and other risk factors, highlighting that the government’s authorities would be well-advised in taking a cautious approach.
    Keywords: Mozambique;Sub-Saharan Africa;gas, lng, gas projects, gas prices, gas production
    Date: 2016–01–08
  38. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Selected Issues paper assesses macroeconomic fiscal risks and the benefits of improved fiscal risk management in Angola. Angola faces fiscal risks coming from multiple sources, such as volatility in oil prices and production, macroeconomic shocks, weak macroeconomic forecasting; weaknesses in public fiscal management, energy subsidies, potential delays of oil revenue transfers from the state-owned oil company Sonangol to the Treasury, and contingent liabilities from state-owned banks and enterprises. Addressing these risks requires action in various fronts, including more transparent fiscal reporting, improved forecasting of fiscal aggregates and other macroeconomic variables, developing a fiscal stabilization fund with more flexible deposit and withdrawal rules, strengthened public expenditure controls, and more timely oil revenue transfers from Sonangol to the Treasury.
    Keywords: Angola;Sub-Saharan Africa;revenue, monetary fund, budget, oil price, oil prices
    Date: 2015–11–03
  39. By: John J. García; Daniel Pérez; Marcela Orrego P.; John Mauro Cataño D.
    Abstract: Abstract: This article presents an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) for different types of fuels in Colombia, focusing specifically on the transport industry. Estimates of price, expenditure and cross elasticities are computed using a Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) model and based on 10 years observations (2003-2012). Results show that diesel and regular gas behave as inelastic goods while natural gas is more elastic. Also, diesel fuels and natural gas seem to behave as substitutes while there’s a complementary relation among the others (regular gas-Diesel; regular fuels-Natural Gas). Regarding the expenditures elasticities, this paper concludes that regular gas and diesel behave as normal goods while natural gas seems be an inferior type of fuel for the transport sector. Resumen: Este paper utilizando el Modelo Casi Ideal de Demanda (AIDS) por medio de ecuaciones aparentemente no relacionadas para la industria de combustibles en el sector transporte en Colombia, analiza las elasticidades precio de la demanda, precio cruzada de la demanda y gasto de la demanda de la Gasolina motor, Diesel y Gas Natural Vehicular (GNV), dada la recomposición que ha presentado esta industria entre el 2003 y 2012, con el objetivo de determinar si estos combustibles se comportan como sustitutos o complementarios y se trata de bienes necesarios o no. Los principales resultados indican que la elasticidad precio de la demanda de la Gasolina y el Diesel son bienes inelásticos, mientras que el GNV se comporta como un bien elástico. Por su parte, por medio de la elasticidad precio cruzada de la demanda, se encuentra que solo el Diesel y el GNV se comportan como bienes sustitutos, mientras que para el resto de relaciones (Gasolina-Diesel y Gasolina-GNV) se observa un comportamiento de complementariedad. Además desde la elasticidad gasto de la demanda se encontró que la Gasolina y el Diesel se comportan como bienes normales, mientras que el GNV resulta ser un bien inferior.
    Keywords: AIDS, SUR, Microeconometrics, Transport, Fuels, Natural Gas, Diesel, Fuels, elasticities
    JEL: D12 D91 L92 Y L98
    Date: 2016–01–18
  40. By: Giorgio Ferrari; Shuzhen Yang
    Abstract: This paper studies an optimal irreversible extraction problem of an exhaustible commodity in presence of regime shifts. A company extracts a natural resource from a reserve with finite capacity, and sells it in the market at a spot price that evolves according to a Brownian motion with volatility modulated by a two state Markov chain. In this setting, the company aims at finding the extraction rule that maximizes its expected, discounted net cash flow. The problem is set up as a finite-fuel two-dimensional degenerate singular stochastic control problem over an infinite time horizon, and we provide explicit expressions both for the value function and for the optimal control. The latter prescribes a Skorokhod reflection of the optimally controlled state process at a certain state and price dependent threshold. This curve is given in terms of the optimal stopping boundary of an auxiliary family of perpetual optimal selling problems with regime switching. The techniques are those of stochastic calculus and stochastic optimal control theory.
    Date: 2016–02
  41. By: Cathrine Hagem; Halvor Briseid Storrøsten (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: The starting point of this paper is a climate coalition which seeks to reduce global emissions. It is well known from the literature on (spatial) carbon leakage that the climate effect of unilateral measures may be partly offset by the actions of the free-riders. Furthermore, from the literature on the green paradox, we know that stringent demand-side policies in the future may increase present emissions. The novelty of this paper is that we also explore how the coalition’s future policies regarding own fossil fuel production (supply-side policies) affect the present emissions from the free-riders. In particular, we find that a credible announcement of future unilateral supply-side policies reduces early foreign emissions. We derive the optimal combination of consumer taxes and producer taxes when both spatial and intertemporal leakages from the free-riders are taken into account. We show that the tax shares generally differ over time, and that a declining present value of the social cost of carbon over time supports a time path where the consumer tax’s share of the total carbon tax also declines over time. We illustrate our findings with a numerical model for the global fossil fuel markets, considering European unilateral carbon policies.
    Keywords: climate coalition; carbon leakage; green paradox; supply-side climate policy; demand-side climate policy
    JEL: H23 Q41 Q54
    Date: 2016–02
  42. By: Vicent Alcántara (Department of Applied Economics, Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona); Emilio Padilla (Department of Applied Economics, Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona); Matias Piaggio (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)
    Abstract: We analyse the NOx gas emissions of different productive sectors in Spain. Using input–output analysis, we study all sectors as subsystems of the economy and classify them according to the explanatory factors of their total (direct and indirect) emissions. This classification provides guidance on the type of policies that should be developed in the different sectors with the aim of mitigating NOx emissions. Some sectors that seem less important when looking at their direct emissions turn out to be highly relevant in terms of their total emissions. The results indicate that demand policies can be effective in these sectors, especially in construction, but also in some service sectors that do not appear to be important polluters at first sight. These policies can complement technical improvements and best practice measures applied to directly polluting sectors.
    Keywords: input–output analysis, NOx emissions, subsystems
    JEL: C63 Q53
    Date: 2016–02
  43. By: Hua Liao; Xin Tang; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: Solid fuels such as firewood and coal are widely used for cooking and heating in the developing countries, which result in serious indoor air pollutions and health effects. Governments and international organizations have been devoted to addressing this issue for a long time. Based on the micro survey data from 1989¨C2011, this paper quantitatively investigate the situations and evolutions of cooking fuel using and its health effects in rural China. We have four findings: (i) most rural households still rely on solid fuels for cooking in modern China. ii) the cooking fuels are slowly diversifying in the last two decades, (iii) there are considerably geographical differences in cooking fuel using across China, and (iv) those resident usually using solid fuel have lower levels of self-assessed health and higher prevalence of respiratory diseases. We then draw some policy implications to reduce cooking fuel use..
    Keywords: rural residents; solid fuel; indoor air pollution (IAP); cooking; health
    JEL: Q54 Q40
    Date: 2016–02–10
  44. By: Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - Université des Sciences et des Technologies de Hanoi)
    Abstract: In the last decade two-wheeler electric vehicles have been taking over the streets of Asian capitals, to the point that it is time to declare the gas moped commercially dead. Rest in peace
    Keywords: transport, véhicule électrique, ville durable, qualité de l'air, bruit
    Date: 2016–02–12
  45. By: Stefano Bosi (EPEE, University of Evry); David Desmarchelier (ECONOMIX, University of Paris Ouest); Lionel Ragot (ECONOMIX, University of Paris Ouest and CEPII)
    Abstract: We consider a competitive Ramsey economy where a pollution externality affects both consumption demand and labor supply, and we assume the stock of pollution to be persistent over time. Surprisingly, when pollution jointly increases the consumption demand (compensation effect) and lowers the labor supply (leisure effect), multiple equilibria arise near the steady state (local indeterminacy) through a Hopf bifurcation (limit cycle). This result challenges the standard view of pollution as a flow to obtain local indeterminacy, and depends on the leisure effect which renders the pollution accumulation process more volatile.
    Keywords: Pollution, Endogenous labor supply, Limit cycle, Ramsey model
    JEL: E32 O44
    Date: 2016–02
  46. By: OECD
    Abstract: This paper presents the first empirical analysis of the macroeconomic relationship between environmentally related taxes and inequality in income sources. The analysis also investigates whether this relationship differs between countries which have implemented environmental tax reforms (ETRs) and ones which have not. Following earlier empirical literature, income inequality is measured by the disposable-income-based Gini coefficient. The analysis is based on a panel of all 34 OECD countries spanning the period from 1995 to 2011. Information about the implementation of ETRS in the examined period is collected through a review of relevant academic and policy literature. Empirical results from econometric models reveal that, on average, there is no statistically significant relationship between the overall share of environmentally related tax revenues in GDP and inequality in income sources. However, the relationship varies with the taxed activity under consideration and the existence of an explicit mechanism to redistribute environmentally related tax revenues. In countries where such mechanisms are absent, energy tax revenues (% of GDP) are shown to have a positive, although modest, relationship with income inequality. In contrast, in countries where energy tax revenues are, at least partially, used to reduce tax burden on income and labour, there is a negative relationship between energy taxes and inequality in income sources. On the contrary, no significant relationship is identified between motor vehicle and other transport tax revenues and income inequality, while revenues from other environmentally related taxes, such as waste and air pollution taxes, are negatively associated with income inequality, regardless of the existence of an explicit revenue recycling mechanism. Ce rapport présente la première analyse empirique des effets macroéconomiques des taxes liées à l’environnement sur les inégalités de revenus, ainsi que du rôle que des réformes spécifiques de la fiscalité environnementale peuvent jouer dans l’atténuation de ces effets. Les inégalités de revenus sont ici mesurées par le coefficient de Gini fondé sur le revenu disponible. Cette analyse empirique utilise un nouvel indicateur des réformes fiscales environnementales (RFEs) élaboré sur la base de l’information qualitative recueillie par une étude de la littérature. Contrairement aux études empiriques antérieures, ce document explore l’effet des taxes liées à l’environnement et des RFEs sur les sources de revenus des ménages, plutôt que sur les utilisations de ce revenu. Cette analyse repose sur un panel composé des 34 pays de l’OCDE et couvre la période comprise entre 1995 et 2011. Elle montre que la part générale des recettes tirées des taxes liées à l’environnement dans le produit intérieur brut (PIB) présente une corrélation positive avec les inégalités de revenus. Cependant, cet effet varie selon l’activité assujettie. Alors que l’on a démontré que les recettes issues des taxes sur l’énergie affichent une relation positive avec les inégalités de revenus, aucun effet tranché ne se dessine pour les recettes produites par les taxes sur les véhicules à moteur et les transports. En revanche, les recettes générées par les autres taxes liées à l’environnement, comme celles perçues sur les déchets et sur la pollution atmosphérique, affichent une relation négative avec les inégalités de revenus. Les RFEs examinées jouent un rôle important dans l’atténuation des impacts négatifs des taxes liées à l’environnement (principalement celles sur l’énergie). On constate en particulier qu’elles annulent complètement ces impacts. Ce constat vient étayer l’argument selon lequel les effets distributifs des taxes liées à l’environnement ne devraient pas être considérés comme des obstacles insurmontables au recours à ces taxes dans ce champ de l’action publique, car des RFE conçues avec soin et bien ciblées peuvent atténuer les effets éventuels de ces taxes sur les inégalités de revenus.
    Keywords: income inequality, environmental tax reform, Gini coefficient, Energy tax, coefficient de Gini, Réformes fiscales environnementales, Taxe sur l’énergie, inégalités de revenu
    JEL: E62 H23 Q48 Q52
    Date: 2016–03–01
  47. By: Robert E. T. Ward
    Abstract: The results cited by Lomborg (2015) are almost entirely due to the assumptions he makes about the post-2030 annual emissions from the United States, European Union and China. In each of these cases, annual emissions are assumed not to reduce any further, and in most cases, to rise.
    JEL: E61 H70
    Date: 2016–02–26
  48. By: Declan Conway; Emma Archer van Garderen; Delphine Deryng; Steve Dorling; Tobias Krueger; Willem Landman; Bruce Lankford; Karen Lebek; Tim Osborn; Claudia Ringler; James Thurlow; Tingju Zhu; Carole Dalin
    Abstract: In southern Africa, the connections between climate and the water–energy–food nexus are strong. Physical and socioeconomic exposure to climate is high in many areas and in crucial economic sectors. Spatial interdependence is also high, driven, for example, by the regional extent of many climate anomalies and river basins and aquifers that span national boundaries. There is now strong evidence of the effects of individual climate anomalies, but associations between national rainfall and gross domestic product and crop production remain relatively weak. The majority of climate models project decreases in annual precipitation for southern Africa, typically by as much as 20% by the 2080s. Impact models suggest these changes would propagate into reduced water availability and crop yields. Recognition of spatial and sectoral interdependencies should inform policies, institutions and investments for enhancing water, energy and food security. Three key political and economic instruments could be strengthened for this purpose: the Southern African Development Community, the Southern African Power Pool and trade of agricultural products amounting to significant transfers of embedded water.
    JEL: N0 L81
    Date: 2015
  49. By: Mai Farid; Michael Keen; Michael G Papaioannou; Ian W.H. Parry; Catherine A. Pattillo; Anna Ter-Martirosyan
    Abstract: This paper discusses the implications of climate change for fiscal, financial, and macroeconomic policies. Most pressing is the use of carbon taxes (or equivalent trading systems) to implement the emissions mitigation pledges submitted by 186 countries for the December 2015 Paris Agreement while providing revenue for lowering other taxes or debt. Carbon pricing in developing countries would effectively mobilize climate finance, and carbon price floor arrangements are a promising way to coordinate policies internationally. Targeted fiscal measures that are tailored to national circumstances and robust across climate scenarios are needed to counter private sector under-investment in climate adaptation. And increased disclosure of carbon footprints, stress testing of asset values, and greater proliferation of hedging instruments, will facilitate low-emission investments and climate risk diversification through financial markets.
    Keywords: Financial markets;Fiscal policy;Climate mitigation, climate finance, adaptation, climate, carbon, emissions, climate change, co, Environmental Economics: Government Policy, All Countries,
    Date: 2016–01–11

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