nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2016‒02‒29
forty-four papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Organisational change and the productivity effects of green technology adoption By Hottenrott, Hanna; Rexhäuser, Sascha; Veugelers, Reinhilde
  2. How much could South Asia benefit from regional electricity cooperation and trade ? By Timilsina,Govinda R.; Toman,Michael A.; Karacsonyi,Jorge G.; de Tena Diego,Luca
  3. A cross-country analysis of residential electricity demand in 11 OECD-countries By Kiran B Krishnamurthy, Chandra; Kriström, Bengt
  4. How do the appliance energy standards work in China? Evidence from room air conditioners By Hao Yu; Bao-Jun Tang; Xiao-Chen Yuan; Shouyang Wang; Yi-Ming Wei
  5. Double Moral Hazard and the Energy Efficiency Gap By Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet; Sébastien Houde
  6. The negative rebound effect of high-cost water and energy mitigation on climate change concern By Nauges, Céline; Wheeler, Sarah
  7. Intelligence and greenhouse gas emissions: Introducing Intelligence Kuznets curve By Salahodjaev, Raufhon; Yuldashev, Oybek
  8. CO2 Emissions and Greenhouse Gas Policy Stringency - An Empirical Assessment By Marcel Probst; Caspar Sauter
  9. Estimating the marginal abatement cost curve of CO2 emissions in China: Provincial panel data analysis By Du, Limin; Hanley, Aoife; Wei, Chu
  10. Miljöbilsägaren – värderingar och attityder till incitament att skaffa miljöbilar och supermiljöbilar? By Hultén, Staffan
  11. Energy and emissions efficiency patterns of Chinese regions: A multi-directional efficiency analysis By Ke Wang; Yi-Ming Wei; Xian Zhang
  12. Energy consumption and the size of the informal economy By Basbay, Mustafa Metin; Elgin, Ceyhun; Torul, Orhan
  13. The influence of price and non-price effects on demand for heating in the EU residential sector By Eoin Ó Broin; Jonas Nässén; Filip Johnsson
  14. The Dynamic effects of Time, Health and of Well-being on the Pollution after the earth summit of Johunburg By FAKHRI, ISSAOUI; HASSEN, TOUMI; WASSIM, TOUILI; BILEL, AMMOURI
  15. Assessing the Effects of Kyoto Mechanisms on the Diffusion of Climate Change Mitigation Technologies By Imai, Kenichi
  16. The Effects of Asymmetric Shocks in Oil Prices on the Performance of the Libyan Economy By Troug, Haytem; Murray, Matt
  17. Who Pollutes? A Household-Level Database of America’s Greenhouse Gas Footprint - Working Paper 381 By Kevin Ummel
  18. The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers By Kilian, Lutz
  19. Heterogeneity in Residential Space Heating Expenditures in Germany By Schmitz, Hendrik; Madlener, Reinhard
  20. Pricing options on forwards in energy markets: the role of mean reversion's speed By Maren Diane Schmeck
  21. Lifting the US Crude Oil Export Ban: A Numerical Partial-Equilibrium Analysis By Lissy Langer; Daniel Huppmann; Franziska Holz
  22. A generic model for analyzing nexus issues of households’ bioenergy use By Djanibekov, Utkur; Finger, Robert; Guta, Dawit Diriba; Varun, Gaur; Mirzabaev, Alisher
  23. An Analytical Approach to Activating Demand Elasticity with a Demand Response Mechanism By Cédric Clastres; Haikel Khalfallah
  24. Empirical Pricing Performance in Long-Dated Crude Oil Derivatives: Do Models with Stochastic Interest Rates Matter? By Benjamin Cheng; Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios; Erik Schlogl
  25. Carbon disclosure, emission levels, and the cost of debt By Kleimeier S.; Viehs P.M.
  26. Aggregate Productivity under an Energy-Based Approach By Arora, Vipin
  27. Do long-haul truckers undervalue future fuel savings? By Adenbaum, Jacob; Copeland, Adam; Stevens, John J.
  28. Discounting disentangled By Moritz Drupp; Mark Freeman; Ben Groom; Frikk Nesje
  29. From Candles to Light: The Impact of Rural Electrification By Irani Arráiz; Carla Calero
  30. Modelling the link between aggregate income and carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries: The case of the Dominican Republic By Sánchez-Fung, José R.
  31. Aggregation of demand side flexibility in a smart grid: A review for European market design By Cherrelle Eid; Paul Codani; Yurong Chen; Yannick Perez; Rudi Hakvoort
  32. Prerequisites of efficient decentralized waste heat recovery and energy storage in production planning By Glock, C. H.; Biel, K.
  33. Comment on ‘Impact of Current Climate Proposals’ by Bjorn Lomborg By Robert E.T. Ward
  34. The challenges of Climate Change and the COP21: ambition and aims By Minh Ha-Duong
  35. The risk of climate ruin By Oliver Bettis; Simon Dietz; Nick Silver
  36. Efficient cellular load balancing through mobility-enriched vehicular communications By Panayiotis Kolios; Katerina Papadaki; Vasilis Friderikos
  37. The Paris Climate Agreement: Is It Sufficient to Limit Climate Change? By Hanna Brauers; Philipp M. Richter
  38. Two Global Challenges, One Solution: International Cooperation to Combat Climate Change and Tropical Deforestation - Working Paper 388 By Antonio G.M. La Viña and Alaya de Leon
  39. A survey of the UK population on public policy By Richard S.J. Tol; Peter Dolton
  40. Is there a natural resource curse on education spending? By Cockx, Lara; Francken, Nathalie
  41. Bayesian SUR Heteroskedastic Model for Demand Elasticity Analysis in the Italian Wholesale Electricity Market. By Maria Chiara D'ERRICO
  42. Summary of the workshop on Climate mitigation policies in developing countries By Gisèle MÜLLER
  43. Gray Matters: Fetal Pollution Exposure and Human Capital Formation By Prashant Bharadwaj; Matthew Gibson; Joshua Graff Zivin; Christopher Neilson
  44. Bilan des connaissances - Transport des hydrocarbures par modes terrestres au Québec By Martin Trépanier; Ingrid Peignier; Benoit A. Aubert; Irène Cloutier

  1. By: Hottenrott, Hanna; Rexhäuser, Sascha; Veugelers, Reinhilde
    Abstract: This study investigates induced productivity effects of firms introducing new environmental technologies. The literature on within-firm organisational change and productivity suggests that firms can achieve higher productivity gains from adopting new technologies if they adapt their organisational structures. Such complementarity effects may be of particular importance for the adoption of greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement technologies. The adoption of these technologies is often induced by public authorities to limit the social costs of climate change, whereas the private returns are much less obvious. This study finds empirical support for complementarity between green technology adoption (either CO2-reducing or resources and energy efficiency-enhancing technologies) and organisational change. While the sole adoption of green technologies is associated with lower productivity, the simultaneous implementation of green technologies and organisational innovations is not.
    Keywords: technical change,environmental innovation,organisational change,productivity
    JEL: D23 O33 O32 Q55 L23 D24
    Date: 2016
  2. By: Timilsina,Govinda R.; Toman,Michael A.; Karacsonyi,Jorge G.; de Tena Diego,Luca
    Abstract: The South Asia region is lagging behind many regions in the world in regional electricity cooperation and trading, despite the huge anticipated benefits. This study uses an electricity planning model that produces optimal expansion of electricity generation capacities and transmission interconnections in the long-term to quantify the benefits of unrestricted cross-border electricity trade in the South Asia during 2015?40. The study finds that the unrestricted electricity trade provision would save US$226 billion (US$9 billion per year) of electricity supply costs over the period. The ratio of the present value of benefits, in the form of reduction of fuel costs, to the present value of increased costs due to generation and interconnection would be 5.3. The provision would reduce regional power sector carbon dioxide emissions by 8 percent, mainly because of substitution of coal-based generation with hydro-based generation, although regional emissions would be well above current levels absent other policy interventions. To achieve these benefits, the region is estimated to add 95,000 megawatts of new cross-border transmission interconnection capacity.
    Keywords: Energy Production and Transportation,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Carbon Policy and Trading,Climate Change Economics,Energy and Environment
    Date: 2015–06–26
  3. By: Kiran B Krishnamurthy, Chandra (Centre for Environmental and Resource Economics); Kriström, Bengt (Centre for Environmental and Resource Economics)
    Abstract: We provide consistent, cross-country estimates of price and income elasticity for the residential sector of 11 OECD countries. Using survey data from 2011 on annual consumption of electricity and sample-derived average electricity price, we provide country-specific price elasticity estimates and average income elasticity estimates. For most countries in our sample, we find strong price responsiveness, with elasticities varying between -0:27 for South Korea and -1:4 for Australia, with most countries elasticity being above (in absolute value) -0:5. Exploiting the presence of many attitudinal indicators, we find evidence for non-price related factors, in particular households’self-reported energy saving behavior, to reduce energy demand between 2 and 4%. In contrast, we find very weak income response, with income elasticities varying from 0:07 to 0:14 and no evidence for heterogeneity across the countries in our sample. Our results regarding price elasticity are in contrast with many existing studies which find low-to-moderate price responsiveness, and adds to a few recent studies indicating more policy space for demand reduction than previously thought.
    Keywords: Residential Electricity Demand; Price Elasticity
    JEL: D12 Q41
    Date: 2013–08–14
  4. By: Hao Yu; Bao-Jun Tang; Xiao-Chen Yuan; Shouyang Wang; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: China has been the world's largest producer and consumer of air conditioners, and more and more RACs would be owned by China's households along with the rapid economic development. Air Conditioner is also considered as one of the largest potential contributors to energy reduction among home appliances because of the huge energy consumption. Therefore, the national energy efficiency standards were issued to promote the use and production of high-efficient RACs. According to China's energy efficiency standards, this paper investigated the electricity savings and CO2 emission reductions from RACs over the period of 2005-2025. The results indicate that the rural RAC market which develops more slowly than the urban one still has great potential, and government has to revise subsidy policies to make the standards more effective, especially for rural areas. In 2025, the total electricity consumption of RACs is projected to be 598-674TWh, while the amount without energy efficiency standards is 753TWh. From 2005 to 2025, the energy efficiency standards for RACs can save 1430-2540TWh electricity and reduce 908.3-1610.1 Mt CO2 emissions in different scenarios. Finally, we suggest that the standards should be revised every 4 or 5 years with higher revision pace of 8% to 10%.
    Keywords: Room air conditioner, Electricity saving, Energy efficiency standard, CO2 emission reduction
    JEL: Q48 Q50
    Date: 2014–08–27
  5. By: Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech); Sébastien Houde (University of Maryland)
    Abstract: We investigate how moral hazard problems can cause sub-optimal investment in energy efficiency, a phenomenon known as the energy efficiency gap. We focus on contexts where both the seller and the buyer of an energy saving technology can take hidden actions. For instance, a home retrofit contractor may cut on the quality of installation to save costs, while the homeowner may increase her use of energy service when provided with higher energy efficiency. As a result, neither energy efficiency quality nor energy use are fully contractible. We formalize the double moral hazard problem and discuss how it can help rationalize the energy efficiency gap. We then compare two policy instruments: minimum quality standards and energy-savings insurance. Their relative efficiency depends on the balance between the monitoring costs associated with the former and the deadweight loss of the consumer's action induced by the latter. Calibrating the model to the U.S. retrofit industry, we find that at current market conditions, standards tend to outperform insurance. We also find that the welfare gains from undoing the double moral hazard are substantially larger than those from internalizing carbon dioxide externalities associated with underlying energy use.
    Keywords: Energy efficiency gap, moral hazard, energy-savings insurance, minimum quality standard, credence good, rebound effect.
    Date: 2015–04–30
  6. By: Nauges, Céline; Wheeler, Sarah
    Abstract: Climate change will require commitment by all levels of the community, but there is still uncertainty surrounding the best way to influence individual mitigation behaviour. This study analyses household survey data on water and energy climate change mitigation behaviour from eleven OECD countries in 2011, and provides new evidence of a form of maladaptation, namely a complex rebound relationship between climate change attitudes and mitigation behaviour. First, results confirm other studies that climate change concerns and economic incentives (in terms of electricity and water charges) positively influence mitigation behaviour. Second, we find that the more costly, in terms of time and/or money, are the mitigation actions of a household, the more likely undertaking such actions directly lessens respondents’ climate change concerns. This negative rebound effect is more likely to occur in ‘environmentally-motivated’ households, who are more likely to have stated they believe human actions can help mitigate climate change. Conversely, economic incentives in driving energy and water pro-environmental behaviour work better in non-environmentallymotivated households. This highlights that a portfolio of policies is needed to drive mitigation behaviour.
    Keywords: economic incentives; rebound effect; mitigation behaviour; climate change attitudes
    Date: 2015–11
  7. By: Salahodjaev, Raufhon; Yuldashev, Oybek
    Abstract: The link between intelligence and air pollution is subject to controversy. Some studies report that intelligence has insignificant effect in reducing the greenhouse gas emissions. By using carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for a large set of countries we present further novel empirical evidence on the relation between level of intelligence and air pollution. Our findings suggest that the relation follows a U-shape pattern and resembles environmental Kuznets curve.
    Keywords: IQ; intelligence; pollution; Kuznets Curve
    Date: 2016
  8. By: Marcel Probst (Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Lausanne, Switzerland); Caspar Sauter (Institute of economic research IRENE, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Neuchâtel, Switzerland)
    Abstract: This paper investigates how greenhouse gas (GHG) policy stringency affects anthropogenic CO2 emissions using a new GHG policy stringency indicator and a structural spatial VAR approach. We estimate an average country-specific elasticity of CO2 emissions to GHG policy stringency, and assess the role of channels over which policy stringency affects CO2 emissions. We then ascertain how GHG policy stringency affects sectoral CO2 efficiency and the sectoral composition of economies. Results indicate that a country with no GHG regulations can achieve a 15% reduction of its CO2 emissions by adopting the stringency level of the most regulated country. In addition, increasing GHG policy stringency improves sectoral CO2 efficiency, and decreases production in CO2 intensive sectors thereby altering the sectoral composition. At last, policy induced CO2 reduction costs in terms of GDP are relatively large, but 4 times lower for developing compared to developed countries.
    Keywords: CO2, composition effect, environmental policy stringency, greenhouse gas emissions, impluse reponse functions, spatial VAR, technique effect
    JEL: O13 Q53 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2015–01
  9. By: Du, Limin; Hanley, Aoife; Wei, Chu
    Abstract: This paper estimates the Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC) of CO2 emissions in China based on a provincial panel for the period of 2001-2010. The provincial marginal abatement cost (MAC) of CO2 emissions is estimated using a parameterized directional output distance function. Four types of model specifications are applied to fit the MAC-carbon intensity pairs. The optimal specification controlling for various covariates is identified econometrically. A scenario simulation of China's 40-45 percent carbon intensity reduction based on our MACC is illustrated. Our simulation results show that China would incur a 559-623 Yuan/ton (roughly 51-57 percent) increase in marginal abatement cost to achieve a corresponding 40-45 percent reduction in carbon intensity compared to its 2005 level.
    Keywords: CO2 Emissions,Marginal Abatement Cost Curve,Model Selection,China
    JEL: Q52 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2015
  10. By: Hultén, Staffan (Marketing and Strategy)
    Abstract: Numerous reports, research papers and debate articles have discussed how we can construct incentives that make car buyers replace gasoline and diesel cars with cars that do not use fossil fuel. In the 1990s, when electric cars and electric hybrid cars were regarded as the most promising alternatives to gasoline and diesel, different theoretical models were developed describing how society could go about building markets for radically new car technologies that challenged well entrenched technologies. In this report we empirically test through analyzing the material from a questionnaire how two of these models can explain car owners’ beliefs and attitudes as regards electric cars and plug-in hybrid cars. The two theoretical models are Bijker’s (1995) model of social construction of technology (SCOT) and the model by Rosa, Porac et. al. (2000) on how producers and consumers through interaction create meaning of a new product category. The report also addresses the role that incentives so far have played to facilitate the market introduction of cars with alternative fuel technology in Sweden, and the magnitude of public financial aid in Sweden to the different categories of so called environmental cars (miljöbilar).
    Keywords: car technology; product category; innovation; consumer attitudes; social construction theory;
    Date: 2015–06–01
  11. By: Ke Wang; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology); Xian Zhang
    Abstract: Evaluation of the energy and emissions efficiency of Chinese regions has recently attracted increasing interest. A number of previous studies have contributed to the measurement of energy efficiency using various types of data envelopment analysis (DEA) techniques. However, most of these DEA-based energy efficiency analyses were restricted to the radial expansions of outputs or radial contractions of inputs. In this paper, we utilize the multi-directional efficiency analysis (MEA) approach instead of the traditional radial DEA to investigate Chinese regional energy and emissions efficiency. Since MEA selects benchmarks such that the input contractions or output expansions are proportional to the potential improvement identified by considering the improvement potential in each input or output variable separately, not just the efficiency status but also the efficiency patterns of different Chinese regions and areas can be detected. The empirical study results indicate that, in general, the MEA efficiency of China experienced an increasing process over the study period 1997-2010; the east area overall is more MEA efficient than the central area and the west area of China during the study period; the significant higher MEA efficiency of the east area to the central area and the west area are due to both the higher energy specific efficiency and the higher emissions specific efficiency of the east area compared to the other two areas; the provinces of Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Henan, and Hubei etc. have both high energy saving potentials and high emissions reduction potentials, thus they will play the most important roles in China¡¯s effort on energy conservation and CO2 emissions mitigation.
    Keywords: Energy efficiency, CO2 emissions, Multi-directional efficiency analysis (MEA), China
    JEL: Q40 Q58
    Date: 2014–07–01
  12. By: Basbay, Mustafa Metin; Elgin, Ceyhun; Torul, Orhan
    Abstract: The authors empirically investigate the relationship between energy consumption and the size of the informal economy. Relying on panel data regression models, their results show that at the aggregate level, energy intensity is inversely related to the size of the informal sector, providing actual empirical evidence on the presence of high labor and low capital intensity in the informal economy. Furthermore, the authors also find some support towards the presence of non-linearity and asymmetry in this relationship.
    Keywords: informal sector,energy consumption,panel data
    JEL: O17 O13 P48 E26
    Date: 2016
  13. By: Eoin Ó Broin (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech, Chalmers University of Technology [Gothenburg]); Jonas Nässén (Chalmers University of Technology [Gothenburg]); Filip Johnsson (Chalmers University of Technology [Gothenburg])
    Abstract: This paper models energy demand for space and water heating from 1970 to 2005 in the residential sector of four EU countries (France, Italy, Sweden, and UK) using index decomposition, ARDL econometric models and cointegration analysis. The partial and temporal influences on energy demand in each country of the number of households, floor area per household (m2) and unit consumption for space and water heating (kWh/m2/year) are disaggregated. The long-run price elasticity of demand at the unit consumption level is found to be low (around -0.25 over the four countries) while the long-run income elasticity of floor area per household is found to be around 0.25 for Italy, Sweden and the UK but insignificant for France. In an exercise using the model to estimate demand to 2050 under annual increases in energy prices of between 0% and 3% it is found that non-price effects such as building codes and autonomous technical progress (represented in the model as a time trend) are equally or more important than the price effect in reducing demand. Thus achieving significant reductions in EU residential sector energy demand by 2050 would require additional non-price policies and measures for success.
    Keywords: Heating,Residential,Scenarios,Price and non-price effects
    Date: 2015–10–22
    Abstract: In This paper we try to investigate the impact of CO2 emissions on a set of socioeconomic variables (GDP, health expectancy, life expectancy, urbanization, time, and a composite variable showing the effects post the earth summit of johansburg) in eight countries covering all world economic groups (Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, France, Norway, Bresil, USA, China and Australia). The empirical results have showed that the GDP continue to be the principal variable which is inciting to the CO2 emission. Also we have demonstrated that it exists actually a voluntary act at the world scale to substitute pollutant energy sources by other sources more clean and pure.
    Keywords: Environmental Kuznets Curve, CO2, energy consumption, growth
    JEL: I1 I15 I3 I31
    Date: 2016–02–08
  15. By: Imai, Kenichi
    Abstract: The Kyoto Mechanisms, namely, the Clean Development Mechanism(CDM), Joint Implementation(JI), and International Emissions Trading(IET), were introduced primarily to help Annex I countries attain emissions reduction targets cost efficiently. In addition, the introduction of the CDM and JI were expected to promote international technology transfer of climate technologies. To what extent do the Kyoto Mechanisms contribute to the international diffusion of climate technologies? What are the main factors that influence the international diffusion of climate technologies under the Kyoto Mechanisms? The purpose of this study is to explore the answers to these two research questions based on a review of a growing number of studies on this topic, particularly on the CDM, as well as an analysis of the data on main technologies, host and investing countries of CDM and JI projects. The study found first that the effects of the CDM and JI on the international transfer of climate technologies are neither strong nor weak, and second that these effects vary by host country, technology type and host country's absorptive capacity of technology. One of main implications of this study is the necessity of empirical studies about credit-incentive son technology innovation.
    Date: 2015–10
  16. By: Troug, Haytem; Murray, Matt
    Abstract: This essay examines the presence of asymmetry in the response of the Libyan economy to fluctuations in oil prices, subsequent to the discovery of oil in the country. Three Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models are illustrated and estimated along with a multivariate rolling VAR approach. All of the examined sectors of the economy are found to react asymmetrically to shocks in oil prices over the 1962-2012 period. The magnitude of the adverse effect of the negative oil shocks on the manufacturing and agriculture sector appears to outweigh the positive effect of the positive oil shocks. The services sector, on the other hand, is able to overcome the shocks of the oil prices, due to absence of external competition. In addition, the results of the Multivariate rolling VAR highlight the existence of structural changes in the relationship between the sectors of the Libyan economy and oil prices. The essay promotes implementing reform to the fiscal policy to de-link the real sector from fluctuations in oil prices. It also advises on enabling the financial sector in order for it to contribute in the diversification process of the economy.
    Keywords: Asymmetric Oil Shocks; Fiscal Policy; Rolling-VARs; OPEC.
    JEL: C13 E6 E62 H5
    Date: 2015–10
  17. By: Kevin Ummel
    Abstract: This paper describes the creation of a database providing estimated greenhouse gas (GHG) footprints for 6 million US households over the period 2008-2012. The database allows analysis of footprints for 52 types of consumption (e.g. electricity, gasoline, apparel, beef, air travel, etc.) within and across geographic regions as small as individual census tracts. Potential research applications with respect to carbon pricing and tax policy are discussed. Preliminary analysis reveals: The top 10% of US polluters are responsible for 25% of the country’s GHG footprint. The least-polluting 40% of the population accounts for only 20% of the total. The average GHG footprint of individuals in the top 2% of the income distribution is more than four times that of those in the bottom quintile. The highest GHG footprints are found in America’s suburbs, where relatively inefficient housing and transport converge with higher incomes. Rural areas exhibit moderate GHG footprints. High-density urban areas generally exhibit the lowest GHG footprints, but location-specific results are highly dependent on income. Residents of Republican-held congressional districts have slightly higher average GHG footprints than those in Democratic districts – but the difference is small (21.8 tCO2e/person/year in Republican districts; 20.6 in Democratic). There is little relationship between the strength of a district’s party affiliation and average GHG footprint.
    Keywords: air pollution, greenhouse gases, climate change, environment
    JEL: Q53 Q57
    Date: 2014–10
  18. By: Kilian, Lutz
    Abstract: This article contributes to the debate about the impact of the U.S. fracking boom on U.S. oil imports, on Arab oil exports, and on the global price of crude oil. First, I investigate the extent to which this oil boom has caused Arab oil exports to the United States to decline since late 2008. Second, I examine to what extent increased U.S. exports of refined products made from domestically produced crude oil have caused Arab oil exports to the rest of the world to decline. Third, the article quantifies by how much increased U.S. tight oil production has lowered the global price of oil. Using a novel econometric methodology, it is shown that in mid-2014, for example, the Brent price of crude oil was lower by $10 than it would have been in the absence of the fracking boom. I find no evidence that fracking was a major cause of the $64 decline in the Brent price of oil from July 2014 to January 2015, however. Fourth, I provide evidence that the decline in Saudi foreign exchange reserves between mid-2014 and August 2015 would have been reduced by 27 percent in the absence of the fracking boom.
    Keywords: Arab oil producers; oil price; oil trade; refined products; Saudi Arabia; shale oil; tight oil
    JEL: F14 Q33 Q43
    Date: 2016–02
  19. By: Schmitz, Hendrik (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))
    Abstract: Since a large share of residential energy use is spent on space heating, it is highly relevant to understand the factors that determine its demand. Using an extensive panel dataset derived from repeated in-home surveys, we model the demand for energy in residential space heating, with a focus on social household characteristics. Our dataset, which covers the years 1992 to 2013, also allows us to explore possible heterogeneity between household groups. As a main result, we report a price elasticity of heating expenditures of 0.658. We find both technical characteristics such as building type and age as well as socio-demographic factors like age and gender to be significant determinants in explaining heating expenditures. Furthermore, we uncover significant heterogeneity in price responsiveness between different groups. For example, low-income households exhibit stronger price reactions than richer ones. Our findings have profound implications for evaluating the effectiveness of policy measures that aim at influencing energy use. Our results prove to be robust to a variety of checks.
    Keywords: Germany; Space heating; Heating expenditures; Heterogeneity
    JEL: C23 D12 Q41
    Date: 2016–02
  20. By: Maren Diane Schmeck
    Abstract: Consider the problem of pricing options on forwards in energy markets, when spot prices follow a geometric multi-factor model in which several rates of mean reversion appear. In this paper we investigate the role played by slow mean reversion when pricing and hedging options. In particular, we determine both upper and lower bounds for the error one makes neglecting low rates of mean reversion in the spot price dynamics.
    Date: 2016–02
  21. By: Lissy Langer; Daniel Huppmann; Franziska Holz
    Abstract: The upheaval in global crude oil markets and the boom in oil production from shale plays in North America have brought scrutiny on the export ban for crude oil in the United States. This paper examines the global flows and strategic refinery adjustments in a spatial, game-theoretic partial-equilibrium model. We consider de- tailed supply chain infrastructure with multiple crude oil qualities (supply), distinct oil products (demand), as well as specific refinery configurations and modes of transport (mid-stream). Investments in production capacity and infrastructure are endogenous. We compare two development pathways for the global oil market: one projection retaining the US export ban, and a counterfactual scenario lifting the export restrictions. Lifting the US crude ban, we find significant expansion of US sweet crude exports. In the US refinery sector, more heavy sour crude is imported and transformed. While US producers gain, the profits of US refiners decrease, due to reduced market distortions and a more efficient resource allocation. Countries importing US sweet crude benefit from higher product output, while avoiding costly refinery investments. Producers of heavy sour crude (e.g. the Middle East) are incentivised to climb up the value chain to defend their market share and maintain their dominant position.
    Keywords: energy system model, crude oil market, US crude export ban, refining capacity, infrastructure investment
    JEL: Q41 Q47 Q48 C61
    Date: 2016
  22. By: Djanibekov, Utkur; Finger, Robert; Guta, Dawit Diriba; Varun, Gaur; Mirzabaev, Alisher
    Abstract: Bioenergy is a major source of energy in developing countries. However, increasing demand for agricultural commodities can lead to a stronger competition for natural resources with the bioenergy production. The nexus among energy, food production and natural resource use may result in trade-offs and synergies. Accordingly, it is important to consider multidimensional aspects of bioenergy, assess the potential for bioenergy options for meeting rural households’ demand for energy, while increasing their incomes, enhancing food security and reducing potential negative effects. For addressing these interrelated issues within a single framework, we develop a generic household model that allows analyzing the ex-ante potential impacts of bioenergy use on rural households in developing countries. The model relies on dynamic programming approach and is able to evaluate the impacts of bioenergy on livelihoods of households, on environment, and on natural resource use over time. The model explicitly considers decision making among various members of household, including men, women and children. We also trace direct and spillover impacts of policy and technological changes among different socio-economic categories of households.
    Keywords: Dynamic programming, equity, gender, technological innovations, environment, trade-offs, spillovers, synergies, Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Environmental Economics and Policy, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C61, D63, O13, O33, Q4, Q12,
    Date: 2016–01
  23. By: Cédric Clastres (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier); Haikel Khalfallah (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier)
    Abstract: The aim of this work is to demonstrate analytically the conditions under which activating the elasticity of consumer demand could benefit social welfare. We have developed an analytical equilibrium model to quantify the effect of deploying demand response on social welfare and energy trade. The novelty of this research is that it demonstrates the existence of an optimal area for the price signal in which demand response enhances social welfare. This optimal area is negatively correlated to the degree of competitiveness of generation technologies and the market size of the system. In particular, it should be noted that the value of un-served energy or energy reduction which the producers could lose from such a demand response scheme would limit its effectiveness. This constraint is even greater if energy trade between countries is limited. Finally, we have demonstrated scope for more aggressive demand response, when only considering the impact in terms of consumer surplus.
    Keywords: Demand Response, Price Signals, Welfare Analysis
    Date: 2015–12
  24. By: Benjamin Cheng (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney); Christina Nikitopoulos-Sklibosios (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney); Erik Schlogl (Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney)
    Abstract: Does modelling stochastic interest rates beyond stochastic volatility improve pricing performance on long-dated crude oil derivatives? To answer this question, we examine the empirical pricing performance of two forward price models for commodity futures and options: a deterministic interest rate - stochastic volatility model and a stochastic interest rate - stochastic volatility model. Both models allow for a correlation structure between the futures price process, the futures volatility process and the interest rate process. By estimating the model parameters from historical crude oil futures prices and option prices, we find that stochastic interest rate models improve pricing performance on long-dated crude oil derivatives, with the effect being more pronounced when the interest rate volatility is relatively high. Several results relevant to practitioners have also emerged from our empirical investigations. With regards to balancing the trade-off between precision and computational effort, we find that two-factor models would provide good fit on long-dated derivative prices thus there is no need to add more factors. We also find empirical evidence for a negative correlation between crude oil futures prices and interest rates.
    Keywords: futures options pricing; stochastic interest rates; correlations; long-dated crude oil derivatives
    JEL: C13 C60 G13 Q40
    Date: 2016–01–01
  25. By: Kleimeier S.; Viehs P.M. (GSBE)
    Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the effect of voluntary carbon emissions disclosure on the cost of debt of publicly listed firms. Using a unique and comprehensive database on carbon emissions from CDP formerly The Carbon Disclosure Project, we study whether firms which choose to voluntarily disclose their carbon emissions enjoy more favorable lending conditions in the form of lower spreads on their bank loans than their non-disclosing counterparts. Our empirical results reveal a significant and negative relation between voluntarily disclosing carbon emission levels and the cost of bank loans for informationally opaque borrowers. Furthermore, we find that higher industry- and firm-size-adjusted carbon emissions have a positive and significant effect on loan spreads. These effects are common to all loans and not limited to loans which have been arranged by norms-constrained lenders suggesting that spread premia are driven by environmental risks rather than investor preferences.
    Keywords: Relation of Economics to Social Values; Banks; Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages; Valuation of Environmental Effects;
    JEL: A13 G21 Q51
    Date: 2016
  26. By: Arora, Vipin
    Abstract: Obtaining reliable data on capital is a recurring challenge when estimating economy-wide productivity growth, especially for developing countries. In this paper I construct energy-based productivity series which use energy consumption instead of capital when making such estimates. I first show that—for the U.S. and select OECD countries—growth in the energy-based series are strongly correlated with other sources historically. I then estimate energy-based productivity growth for other OECD and non-OECD countries where data on capital and productivity is more limited.
    Keywords: total factor productivity,energy consumption,economic growth,international
    JEL: E00 O40 Q43
  27. By: Adenbaum, Jacob (Federal Reserve Bank of NY); Copeland, Adam (Federal Reserve Bank of NY); Stevens, John J. (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))
    Abstract: The U.S. federal government enacted fuel efficiency standards for medium and heavy trucks for the first time in September 2011. Rationales for using this policy tool typically depend upon frictions existing in the marketplace or consumers being myopic, such that vehicle purchasers undervalue the future fuel savings from increased fuel efficiency. We measure by how much long-haul truck owners undervalue future fuel savings by employing recent advances to the classic hedonic approach to estimate the distribution of willingness-to-pay for fuel efficiency. We find significant heterogeneity in truck owners' willingness to pay for fuel efficiency, with the elasticity of fuel efficiency to price ranging from 0.51 at the 10th percentile to 1.33 at the 90th percentile, and an average of 0.91. Combining these results with estimates of future fuel savings from increases in fuel efficiency, we find that long-haul truck owners' willingness-to-pay for a 1 percent increase in fuel efficiency is, on average, just 29.5 percent of the expected future fuel savings. These results suggest that introducing fuel efficiency standards for heavy trucks might be an effective policy tool to raise medium and heavy trucks' fuel economy.
    Keywords: fuel efficiency standards; durable goods; discrete-choice demand estimation
    JEL: D22 L51 L92
    Date: 2015–12–29
  28. By: Moritz Drupp; Mark Freeman; Ben Groom; Frikk Nesje
    Abstract: As the most important driver of long-term project evaluation, from climate change policy to infrastructure investments, the social discount rate (SDR) has been subject to heated debate among economists. To uncover the extent and sources of disagreement, we report the results of a survey of over 200 experts that disentangles the long-term SDR into its component parts: the pure rate of time preference, the wealth effect, and the real risk-free interest rate. The mean recommended SDR is 2.27 percent, with a range from 0 to 10 percent. Despite disagreement on point values, more than three-quarters of experts are comfortable with the median SDR of 2 percent, and over 90 percent find an SDR in the range of 1 to 3 percent acceptable. Our disentangled data reveal that only a minority of responses are consistent with the Ramsey Rule, the theoretical framework dominating discounting policy. Instead, experts recommend that governmental discounting guidance should be updated to deal with uncertainty, relative prices, and alternative ethical approaches.
    Date: 2015–11
  29. By: Irani Arráiz; Carla Calero
    Abstract: This paper studies the impact of access to electricity via solar-powered home systems (SHSs) in rural communities in Peru. Applying propensity score matching at the community as well as at the household level, the authors find that households with SHSs spend less on traditional sources of energy---candles and batteries for flashlights---and that the subsequent savings are commensurate to the fee for SHS use. People in households with SHSs spend more time awake, and women in particular change patterns of time use: they spend more time taking care of children, cooking, doing laundry, and weaving for their families, and less time in productive activities outside their homes (farming). Children spend more time doing homework, which has translated into more years of schooling (among elementary school students) and higher rates of enrollment (in secondary school). Although women spend less time farming and men more time on home business activities in households with SHSs than in those without, these changes have had no evident impact on income or poverty.
    Keywords: Evaluation, Rural development, Electricity consumption, Electricity services, Renewable energy, Peru, solar-powered home systems, clean energy, impact evaluation, rural electricity
    Date: 2015–05
  30. By: Sánchez-Fung, José R.
    Abstract: The paper estimates the link between aggregate income and carbon dioxide emissions for the Dominican Republic. The econometric analysis finds evidence of an environmental Kuznets curve revealing that the level of annual real per capita income at which carbon dioxide emissions start to stabilise is around US$1,600. The estimations support evidence in the literature revealing that the curve has been flattening and shifting to the left.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions; Environmental Kuznets curve; Dominican Republic.
    JEL: Q56
    Date: 2016–01–20
  31. By: Cherrelle Eid (Delft university of technology); Paul Codani (E3S - Supélec Sciences des Systèmes [Gif-sur-Yvette] - SUPELEC); Yurong Chen (Laboratoire Génie Industriel - CentraleSupélec); Yannick Perez (E3S - Supélec Sciences des Systèmes [Gif-sur-Yvette] - SUPELEC); Rudi Hakvoort (Delft university of technology)
    Abstract: The increased share of renewable generation and the integration of Distributed Generation (DG) require more electricity system flexibility. One way to increase this flexibility is to use the potentials of demand response (DR). In order to activate the full range of customers in DR, a new market intermediary actor is needed to aggregate the resources in an adequate technical and economical format. These actors, so called “aggregators”, can act as flexibility providers to support security of supply considering network, generation and consumers constraints. However, despite their technical and economical utility, aggregators are not self-emerging in many European countries. Consequently, this paper aims at identifying the main barriers accounting for this lack of aggregators in Europe. Eventually this paper provides a policy review for European market designs that support aggregation.
    Keywords: Aggregators,Demand response,demand management,regulation
    Date: 2015–05–20
  32. By: Glock, C. H.; Biel, K.
    Date: 2016–01–30
  33. By: Robert E.T. Ward
    Abstract: Lomborg (2015) suffers from a fundamental methodological flaw which means that it could not fulfil its aim, stated in the ‘Abstract’, to investigate “the temperature reduction impact of major climate policy proposals implemented by 2030â€.
    Date: 2015–12
  34. By: Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - Université des Sciences et des Technologies de Hanoi)
    Keywords: climate change
    Date: 2015–06–10
  35. By: Oliver Bettis; Simon Dietz; Nick Silver
    Abstract: How large a risk is society prepared to run with the climate system? One perspective on this is to compare the risk that the world is running with the climate system, defined in terms of the risk of ‘climate ruin’, with the comparable risk that financial institutions, in particular insurance companies, are prepared or allowed to run with their own financial ruin. We conclude that, in terms of greenhouse gas emissions today and in the future, the world is running a higher risk with the climate system than financial institutions, in particular insurance companies, would usually run with their own solvency.
    Date: 2015–11
  36. By: Panayiotis Kolios; Katerina Papadaki; Vasilis Friderikos
    Abstract: Supporting effective load balancing is paramount for increasing network utilization efficiency and improving the perceivable user experience in emerging and future cellular networks. At the same time, it is becoming increasingly alarming that current communication practices lead to excessive energy wastes both at the infrastructure side and at the terminals. To address both these issues, this paper discusses an innovative communication approach enabled by the implementation of device-to-device (d2d) communication over cellular networks. The technique capitalizes on the delay tolerance of a significant portion of Internet applications and the inherent mobility of the nodes to achieve significant performance gains. For delay-tolerant messages, a mobile node can postpone message transmission—in a store–carry and forward manner—for a later time to allow the terminal to achieve communication over a shorter range or to postpone communication to when the terminal enters a cooler cell, before engaging in communication. Based on this framework, a theoretical model is introduced to study the generalized multihop d2d forwarding scheme where mobile nodes are allowed to buffer messages and carry them while in transit. Thus, a multiobjective optimization problem is introduced where both the communication cost and the varying load levels of multiple cells are to be minimized. We show that the mathematical programming model that arises can be efficiently solved in time. Furthermore, extensive numerical investigations reveal that the proposed scheme is an effective approach for both energy-efficient communication and offering significant gains in terms of load balancing in multicell topologies.
    Keywords: Load balancing; Energy efficiency; Store carry and forward relaying; Device to device communication; Wireless routing; Cellular networks
    JEL: L91 L96
    Date: 2016
  37. By: Hanna Brauers; Philipp M. Richter
    Abstract: “The Paris Agreement is a monumental triumph for people and our planet” (UN News Centre, 2015). Statements, like this one from UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon, represent the global excitement shortly after the acceptance of the Paris Agreement and describe the outcome of the COP21 in December 2015 primarily as ‘historical’. Twenty years after the UN’s first COP (Conference of the Parties), the international community reached “the first universal agreement in the history of climate negotiations” (French Government, 2015).Euphoria about the diplomatic success gave way to scepticism if the deal will actually have real political power to initiate ambitious climate policy worldwide that can prevent dangerous levels of climate change. It will be the next years and decades that show whether the Paris Agreement can create the so far missing global ambition to limit anthropogenic climate change and its capability to reduce risks and vulnerability to the impacts of an already changed climate.In this DIW Roundup we discuss the most important achievements of the negotiations in Paris, and show necessary steps, so that the convention will lead to the historic actions it is meant to create. Doing so, we complement a previous DIW Roundup (No. 82; Richter and Brauers, 2015), where we evaluated expectations prior to the Paris climate talks in December 2015.
    Date: 2016
  38. By: Antonio G.M. La Viña and Alaya de Leon
    Abstract: This paper provides an analysis of the international political dynamics around the reduction of tropical deforestation and forest degradation as a climate mitigation strategy, emphasizing the necessity of an enabling environment and sustainable financing to support the scaling up of these efforts globally. After describing the evolution from the 1990s of international cooperation to combat tropical deforestation, the paper focuses principally on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and how it provided an impetus for a renewed effort on this issue. The paper describes the complex process through which the climate and tropical forest agenda got inserted into UNFCCC processes, from its marginal role in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) created by the Kyoto Protocol to the emergence of REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and the Role of Conservation, Sustainable Management of Forests and Enhancement of Forest Carbon Stocks) as the forum where decisions have been made on climate and tropical forests. The paper dissects the issues that have dominated the REDD+ negotiations, identifies and characterizes the actors and constituencies that have been influential in the process, analyzes lessons learned from the successes of this UNFCCC agenda, and suggests recommendations to move the REDD+ and overall tropical forests and climate agenda forward. The paper concludes with an anticipation of what to expect in the future, in the light especially of what could possibly be a new climate change agreement in 2015.
    Keywords: Climate change, Forests, REDD+.
    JEL: Q23 Q54 F53
    Date: 2014–12
  39. By: Richard S.J. Tol (Department of Economics, University of Sussex,UK, Institute for Environmental Studies and Department of Spatial Economic,UK, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands); Peter Dolton (Department of Economics, University of Sussex,UK,Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics,UK,CESifo, Munich, Germany,IZA, Bonn, Germany)
    Abstract: An online survey of over 12,000 UK residents was conducted with the aim of understanding: elements of public policy, preferences and knowledge of public expenditure, the provision of public goods, and the intergenerational allocation of resources. Questions were asked about demographics, wealth and income attitudes, time preferences, risk preferences, social value orientation, subjective personal assessments of life expectancy, perceptions of government spending, and public policies on health, education, pensions and climate change. This paper presents a simple description of the summary statistics from the survey. It does not, as yet, provides substantive analysis of the data.
    Keywords: Survey, United Kingdom, discount rate, risk aversion, social value orientation, health, education, pensions, climate change, public policy
    JEL: D10 D64 D70 D80 I18 I28 J32 H51 H52 H55 Q54
    Date: 2016–02
  40. By: Cockx, Lara; Francken, Nathalie
    Abstract: This paper contributes to a new line of research in the resource curse literature that addresses the link between resource wealth and fiscal policy by empirically investigating the relationship between natural resource dependence and public education spending. Using a large panel dataset of world countries covering the period from 1995 to 2009, we find robust evidence of a public education spending resource curse. The adverse effect of natural resource dependence on public education expenditures relative to GDP remains significant after controlling for additional covariates such as income, aid, and the age structure of the population. Our results further confirm the existence of indirect effects of resource dependence through a deterioration of government accountability and the crowding-out of more skilled-labour intensive sectors in the economy. Furthermore, our findings indicate that the resource curse effect on the government prioritization of education mainly stems from point-source natural resources. Our results have important implications for managing natural resource wealth in developing countries, as they could achieve particularly high returns by investing resource revenues in public goods such as education. While this paper underlines the importance of institutions and government accountability, our results also raise questions on the role of the extractives industry. The oil, gas and mining industry should consider increasing funding for education through Corporate Social Responsibility initiatives in this sector or through other innovative channels of development finance.
    Keywords: education spending
    Date: 2015–03
  41. By: Maria Chiara D'ERRICO
    Abstract: The Italian electricity sector undertook a deregulation process starting in the 2004 that has led to overcome the system of vertically integrated monopoly. This process led to the institution of Power Exchange (IPEX). The transition had not been simple since the definition of a proper market structure preserving competition is not an immediate task. In this context, the information provided by demand elasticity have to be exploited since the elasticity is strictly linked with the market power measured on the supply side. The work want to investigate what is the extent of buyer’s elasticity and if buyers can change their consumption profiles within the day given the rational expectation of change in price. The research use a Bayesian approach applying a heteroskedastic SUR regression Model.
    Keywords: Demand Elasticity; Bayesian Estimation; Electricity Markets
    JEL: D43
    Date: 2015–12–18
  42. By: Gisèle MÜLLER (United Nations Environment Programme)
    Abstract: As background preparation for the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Paris in December 2015, the FERDI (Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International), in collaboration with CERDI (Centre for Studies and Research on International Development) from the University of Auvergne and IDDRI (Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations), held a one-day workshop on the topic of current and future climate change policies with a special focus on challenges faced by developing countries which will be hardest hit by global warming.
    Date: 2015–02
  43. By: Prashant Bharadwaj (University of California-San Diego); Matthew Gibson (Williams College); Joshua Graff Zivin (University of California-San Diego); Christopher Neilson (Princeton University)
    Abstract: This paper examines the impact of fetal exposure to air pollution on 4th grade test scores in Santiago, Chile. We rely on comparisons across siblings which address concerns about locational sorting and all other time-invariant family characteristics that can lead to endogenous exposure to poor environmental quality. We also exploit data on air quality alerts to help address concerns related to short-run time-varying avoidance behavior, which has been shown to be important in a number of other contexts. We find a strong negative effect from fetal exposure to carbon monoxide (CO) on math and language skills measured in 4th grade. These effects are economically significant and our back of the envelope calculations suggest that the 50% reduction in CO in Santiago between 1990 and 2005 increased lifetime earnings by approximately 100 million USD per birth cohort.
    Keywords: human capital, air pollution, avoidance behavior, carbon monoxide
    JEL: J24 Q51 Q53 Q56 I12 I18
    Date: 2016–02
  44. By: Martin Trépanier; Ingrid Peignier; Benoit A. Aubert; Irène Cloutier
    Date: 2015–03–01

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