nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2016‒02‒23
forty-five papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. An Assessment of the Energy-Efficiency Gap and Its Implications for Climate Change Policy By Todd D. Gerarden; Richard G. Newell; Robert N. Stavins; Robert C. Stowe
  2. Does Active Choosing Promote Green Energy Use? Experimental Evidence By Simon Hedlin; Cass R. Sunstein
  3. Can Energy Efficiency Standards Reduce Prices and Improve Quality? Evidence from the US Clothes Washer Market By Arlan Brucal; Michael Roberts
  4. China's regional industrial energy efficiency and carbon emissions abatement costs By Ke Wang; Yi-Ming Wei
  5. China¡¯s regional energy efficiency: Results based on three-stage DEA model By Bin Lu; Ke Wang; Zhiqiang Xu
  6. Analysis of Energy Use Efficiency in Japanese Factories: The possibility of industry agglomeration effect for energy efficiency (Japanese) By TANAKA Kenta; MANAGI Shunsuke
  7. Economic Policy Evaluation for the Deployment of Alternative Energy Sources in Brazil By Chang, Nicolás C. P.; Oberst, Christian A.; Madlener, Reinhard
  8. Green jobs in the renewable energy sector By Bartniczak, Bartosz; Ptak, Michał
  9. Clean Energy and Sustainable Development lab activity report, 2014-09-31 to 2015-12-31 By Minh Ha-Duong; Hoang Anh Tran
  10. Evaluating the macroeconomic impacts of bio-based applications in the EU. By Edward Smeets; Cristina Vinyes; Andrzej Tabeau; Hans Van Meijl; Corjan Brink; Anne Gerdien Prins
  11. The RIN Market as a New Stage in the Development of Environmentally Friendly Fuels By Ekaterina Kakorina; Timerkhan Bakhautdinov; Elias Dmitriev
  12. Introduction d’une règle de « proportionnalité » dans les appels d’offres de la Commission des Services Électriques de Montréal : Une évaluation économique By Abraham Hollander; Yves Richelle
  13. Impacts of socioeconomic factors on monthly electricity consumption of China's sectors By Jing-Li Fan; Bao-Jun Tang; Hao Yu; Yun-Bing Hou; Yi-Ming Wei
  14. Historic and potential technology transition paths of grid battery storage: Co-evolution of energy grid, electric mobility and batteries By Manuel Baumann
  15. Beyond average energy consumption in the French residential housing market: A household classification approach By Emmanuel Hache; Déborah Leboullenger; Valérie Mignon
  16. Lighting and violent crimes: evaluating the effect of an electrification policy in rural Brazil on violent crime reduction By ARVATE, Paulo; FALSETE, Filipe Ortiz; RIBEIRO, Felipe Garcia; SOUZA, André Portela
  17. Nexus between U.S Energy Sources and Economic Activity: Time-Frequency and Bootstrap Rolling Window Causality Analysis By Shahbaz, Muhammad; Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad; Jammazi, Rania
  18. The impacts of energy trends and policies on Taiwan's power generation systems By Kuo, Po-Yao
  19. Nonhumans in the Practice of Development: Material Agency and Friction in a Small-Scale Energy Program in Indonesia By Yuti Ariani Fatimah; Saurabh Arora
  20. The Role of Globalization on the Recent Evolution of Energy Demand in India: Implications for Sustainable Development By Shahbaz, Muhammad; Mallick, Hrushikesh; Kumar, Mantu; Sadorsky, Perry
  21. Coordinating Cross-Country Congestion Management By Friedrich Kunz; Alexander Zerrahn
  22. Why truck distance taxes are contagious and drive fuel taxes to the bottom By Mandell, Svante; Proost, Stef
  23. On the Comparative Advantage of U.S. Manufacturing: Evidence from the Shale Gas Revolution By Arezki, Rabah; Fetzer, Thiemo
  24. Broadening benefits from natural resource extraction: Housing values and taxation of natural gas wells as property By Weber, Jeremy G.; Burnett, J.Wesley; Xiarchos, Irene M.
  25. North American Natural Gas Model Impact of Cross-Border Trade with Mexico By Felipe Feijoo; Daniel Huppmann; Larissa Sakiyama; Sauleh Siddiqui
  26. The taxation of nonrenewable natural resources By Pierre Lasserre; Gérard Gaudet
  27. The Caspian Basin: Legal, Political and Security Concerns, Pipeline Diplomacy and Implications for EU Energy Security By Anis H. Bajrektarevic
  28. Say It with a Pet Bottle: Discredited Diesel Vehicles in Japan By Takahiro Endo; Yoritoshi Hara; Yuki Tsuboyama
  29. Time-varying effect of oil market shocks on the stock market By Wensheng Kang; Ronald A. Ratti; Kyung Hwan Yoon
  30. Russian economy in the face of the global decline of crude oil prices By Michal Wilinski; Agnieszka Wilinska
  31. Fuelling Future Prices: Oil Price and Global Inflation By Carlos Medel
  32. Revisiting the role of the resource curse in shaping institutions and growth By Murshed, S.M.; Badiuzzaman, M.; Pulok, M.H.
  33. Tradable Permits in Cost-Benefit Analysis By Johansson, Per-Olov
  34. The impacts of the EU ETS on Norwegian plants' environmental and economic performance By Klemetsen, Marit E.; Rosendahl, Knut Einar; Lund Jakobsen, Anja
  35. Delaying the introduction of emissions trading systems—Implications for power plant investment and operation from a multi-stage decision model By Jian-Lei Mo; Joachim Schleich; Lei Zhu; Ying Fan
  36. A Review Paper on Carbon Trading By Kohli, Deepti; Sinha, Pankaj
  37. Development aid and climate finance By Johan Eyckmans; Sam Fankhauser; Snorre Kverndokk
  38. L'énergie et les changements climatiques - Perceptions québécoises By Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin; Ingrid Peignier; Minh Hoang Bui; Miguel F. Anjos; Steven A. Gabriel; Carla Guerra
  39. Identifying and addressing gaps in the UNFCCC reporting framework By Jane Ellis; Sara Moarif
  40. Climate Change 2014 By Ha-Duong Minh
  41. Measurement and Monitoring for REDD+: The Needs, Current Technological Capabilities and Future Potential - Working Paper 392 By Scott J. Goetz, Matthew Hansen, Richard A. Houghton, Wayne Walker, Nadine Laporte, and Jonah Busch
  42. Transnational Environmental Agreements with Heterogeneous Actors By Achim Hagen; Leonhard Kaehler; Klaus Eisenack
  43. Economic targets and loss-aversion in international environmental cooperation By İriş, Doruk
  44. R&D investments and spillovers under endogenous technological opportunity By Mário Alexandre Patrício Martins da Silva
  45. Are the Laffer curve and the Green Paradox mutually exclusive? By Stefano Bosi; David Desmarchelier

  1. By: Todd D. Gerarden (Harvard University); Richard G. Newell (Duke University); Robert N. Stavins (Harvard University); Robert C. Stowe (Harvard University)
    Abstract: Improving end-use energy efficiency—that is, the energy-efficiency of individuals, households, and firms as they consume energy—is often cited as an important element in efforts to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. Arguments for improving energy efficiency usually rely on the idea that energy-efficient technologies will save end users money over time and thereby provide low-cost or no-cost options for reducing GHG emissions. However, some research suggests that energy-efficient technologies appear not to be adopted by consumers and businesses to the degree that would seem justified, even on a purely financial basis. We review in this paper the evidence for a range of explanations for this apparent “energy-efficiency gap.” We find most explanations are grounded in sound economic theory, but the strength of empirical support for these explanations varies widely. Retrospective program evaluations suggest the cost of GHG abatement varies considerably across different energy-efficiency investments and can diverge substantially from the predictions of prospective models. Findings from research on the energy-efficiency gap could help policy makers generate social and private benefits from accelerating the diffusion of energy-efficient technologies—including reduction of GHG emissions.
    Keywords: Energy Efficiency, Climate Change Policy
    JEL: Q4 Q48 Q5 Q55
    Date: 2015–03
  2. By: Simon Hedlin; Cass R. Sunstein
    Abstract: Many officials have been considering whether it is possible or desirable to use choice architecture to increase use of environmentally friendly (?green?) products and activities. The right approach could produce significant environmental benefits, including large reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and better air quality. This Article presents new data from an online experiment (N=1,245) in which participants were asked questions about hypothetical green energy programs. The central finding is that active choosing had larger effects than green energy defaults (automatic enrollment in green energy), apparently because of the interaction between people?s feelings of guilt and their feelings of reactance. This finding is driven principally by the fact that when green energy costs more, there is a significant increase in opt-outs from green defaults, whereas with active choosing, green energy retains considerable appeal even when it costs more.More specifically, we report four principal findings. First, forcing participants to make an active choice between a green energy provider and a standard energy provider led to higher enrollment in the green program than did either green energy defaults or standard energy defaults. Second, active choosing caused participants to feel more guilty about not enrolling in the green energy program than did either green energy defaults or standard energy defaults; the level of guilt was positively related to the probability of enrolling. Third, respondents were less likely to approve of the green energy default than of the standard energy default, but only when green energy cost extra, which suggests reactance towards green defaults when enrollment means additional private costs. Fourth, respondents appeared to have inferred that green energy automatically would come at a higher cost and/or be of worse quality than less environmentally friendly energy. These findings raise important questions both for future research and for policymaking. If they reflect real-world behavior, they suggest the potentially large effects of active choosing ? perhaps larger, in some cases, than those of green energy defaults.
  3. By: Arlan Brucal (UH-Manoa Department of Economics, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization); Michael Roberts (UH-Manoa Department of Economics and University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization)
    Abstract: We examine the e↵ect of energy efficiency standards on the clothes washers market using a constant-quality price index constructed from same-model price changes for a significant majority of clothes washer models sold in the United States between 2001 and 2011. We find constant-quality prices fell over time, while quality increased, particularly around times energy standards changed. We estimate total welfare changes by assuming the di↵erence between average price and constant-quality price indicates average quality. Further examination shows product entry and exit are associated with changes federal standard for energy efficiency. With policy changes implicitly coordinating entry and exit, average vintage sharply falls when standards change. Controlling for individual model and time e↵ects, we find that lower average vintage is associated with more rapidly falling prices, an e↵ect we attribute to increased competition. We also find a strong relationship between clothes washer prices and average vintage of the same manufacturer, which indicates cannibalism explains much of the declining price of clothes washers over time. We apply the same methodology to other appliances (clothes dryer, room air conditioners and refrigerators) which did not experience simultaneous efficiency standard changes between 2001 and 2011. We see the same cannibalism in the market for clothes dryers, but not for room air conditioners or refrigerators. We also find notable improvements both in the characteristics of clothes washers that directly improve energy efficiency and those that promote convenience and space-saving. Energy efficiency standards appear to facilitate more rapid innovation and price declines.
    JEL: H51 I12 Q51 Q53
    Date: 2015–06
  4. By: Ke Wang; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: Evaluating the energy and emissions efficiency, measuring the energy saving and emissions reduction potential, and estimating the carbon price in China at the regional level are considered a crucial way to identify the regional efficiency levels and efficiency promotion potentials, as well as to explore the marginal abatement costs of carbon emissions in China. This study applies a newly developed Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) based method to evaluate the regional energy and emissions efficiencies and the energy saving and emissions reduction potentials of the industrial sector of 30 Chinese major cities during 2006-2010. In addition, the CO2 shadow prices, i.e., the marginal abatement costs of CO2 emissions from industrial sector of these cities are estimated during the same period. The main findings are: (i) The coast area cities have the highest total factor industrial energy and emissions efficiency, but efficiency of the west area cities are lowest, and there is statistically significant efficiency difference between these cities. (ii) Economically well-developed cities evidence higher efficiency, and there is still obviously unbalanced and inequitable growth in the nationwide industrial development of China. (iii) Fortunately, the energy utilization and CO2 emissions efficiency gaps among different Chinese cities were decreasing since 2006, and the problem of inequitable nationwide development has started to mitigate. (iv) The Chinese major cities could have, on average, an approximately 19% or 17% efficiency increase on energy utilization or CO2 emissions during 2006-2010. (v) Promoting the industrial energy utilization efficiency is comparatively more crucial for Chinese cities at the current stage, and the efficiency promotion burdens on the west area cities are the heaviest among all Chinese cities. (vi) An N-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) exists between the level of industrial CO2 emissions efficiency and income, and the inflection point the EKC is located between 12052-12341 US$ of GDP per capita, indicating that an accelerated CO2 emissions efficiency increase will accrue when this income level is reached. (vii) In 2010, the industrial total energy saving and CO2 emissions reduction potentials for Chinese major cities were 41 million tce and 143 million tCO2, respectively. (viii) The average industrial CO2 emissions abatement cost for Chinese major cities is 45 US$ during 2006-2010, and the existence of large gap on CO2 shadow prices between different Chinese regions provide a necessity and possibility for establishing a regional carbon emissions trading system in China.
    Keywords: CO2 emissions, energy efficiency, abatement cost, shadow price, DEA
    JEL: Q40 Q58
    Date: 2014–08–01
  5. By: Bin Lu; Ke Wang; Zhiqiang Xu
    Abstract: Traditional DEA models ignore the influence of environmental variables and statistical noise which may result in biased efficiency estimates. To solve this problem, three-stage DEA model was proposed and has been widely applied in many areas. This study evaluates China¡¯s regional energy efficiency by using three-stage DEA model based on the statistical data of 2010, and discusses the divergence of three different efficiency assessment methods. The empirical results show that the environmental factors indeed influence the regional energy efficiency performance. After the adjustment of environmental variables, the national average technical efficiency by adopting three-stage DEA model decreased significantly than by using traditional DEA model, but the influences to regions are different due to diverse features, some regions were overestimated by using BCC-DEA model, and some regions were underestimated. Three-stage DEA model is able to reflect the true efficiency by eliminating environmental effects compared with other methods.
    Keywords: Evaluation; Three-stage DEA Model; SFA; Environmental Influence; Regional Energy Efficiency
    JEL: Q54 Q40
    Date: 2016–02–05
  6. By: TANAKA Kenta; MANAGI Shunsuke
    Abstract: To tackle worsening environmental and resource problems, increasing energy efficiency is the one of the most important policy issues in the world. Many previous studies have tried to measure energy efficiency in the industrial sector. However, previous studies did not sufficiently analyze what factors affect energy efficiency changes. In this study, we measure energy efficiency based on plant level data in the Japanese paper and pulp industry and cement industry. In addition, we try to reveal the relationship between industry agglomeration effect and energy efficiency of each factory. Our results show some important findings. First, energy efficiency has improved in recent years in the Japanese paper and pulp industry as well as the cement industry, but contribution factors for improvement of energy efficiency differ between each industry. Second, industry agglomeration affects energy efficiency. In the paper and pulp industry, the same industry agglomerations contribute to improvements in energy efficiency, however, the agglomeration effect is negative for energy efficiency in the cement industry.
    Date: 2016–02
  7. By: Chang, Nicolás C. P. (RWTH Aachen University); Oberst, Christian A. (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))
    Abstract: In this paper we present an economic evaluation of scenarios for the future Brazilian power sector. We regard different paths for the capacity expansion with alternative energy sources aiming at the economically efficient diversification of the electricity mix. The scenarios are constructed in light of specific features of the Brazilian energy system, such as its enormous storage capacity, the imminent depletion of hydropower potential, and design characteristics of the regulated market. The economic relationships of the electricity generation sector are illustrated by micro‐economic models of industrial organization theory, parameterized with observed data from energy auctions and official market projections.
    Keywords: Power system planning; energy transition policy; renewable energy
    JEL: D40 L10 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2015–10
  8. By: Bartniczak, Bartosz; Ptak, Michał
    Abstract: Green jobs exist for a long time. However, for some time dynamics of their creation is increasing and they are created in more and more sectors. Green jobs are created as a result of the development of new environmentally friendly technologies or through the "greening" of the next sectors of the economy. Despite the widespread use of the concept of green jobs there is a lack of a universally accepted definition of this concept and consequently can not be strictly defined sectors where these jobs are created. The purpose of this article is to present the situation related to the creation of green jobs in one of the fastest growing sectors in the world which is the renewable energy sector. The article analyzes the situation in selected countries, as well as in selected areas of renewable energy. The article presents also the support mechanisms that affect the development of the sector and thus to create jobs.
    Keywords: green jobs,renewable energy sector
    Date: 2015
  9. By: Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - Université des Sciences et des Technologies de Hanoi); Hoang Anh Tran (CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - Université des Sciences et des Technologies de Hanoi)
    Abstract: The Clean Energy and Sustainable Development laboratory – CleanED – was established in December 2014 with support from USTH and French Embassy in Hanoi. In September 2015, CleanED lab counted five researchers from France and Vietnam, five doctoral fellows and two internationally qualified staff. This international and interdisciplinary research team gets the mission to contribute to the green growth of the energy sector in Vietnam. Its expertise ranges from engineering to public policy on: Natural resources characterization and management Biomass and waste to energy conversion process technologies Energy systems optimization from smart grid to national plans
    Keywords: clean energy, biomass energy, sustainable development, Vietnam, cooperation, activity report, smart grid
    Date: 2016–01–27
  10. By: Edward Smeets (Wageningen UR - LEI); Cristina Vinyes (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Andrzej Tabeau (Wageningen UR - LEI); Hans Van Meijl (Wageningen UR - LEI); Corjan Brink (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency); Anne Gerdien Prins (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)
    Abstract: In 2012, the European Commission (EC) launched the Bioeconomy Strategy and Action Plan with the objective of establishing a resource efficient and competitive society that reconciles food security with the sustainable use of renewable resources. This report contributes to the plan by evaluating the macroeconomic impacts of bio-based applications in the EU. Such effects can only be evaluated with a computable general equilibrium model such as MAGNET. Four bio-based applications are considered, namely biofuel (second generation), biochemicals, bioelectricity, and biogas (synthetic natural gas). This is done assuming that 1 EJ lignocellulose biomass is converted into fuel, chemicals, electricity and gas and that the final product replaces an equal amount of conventional (e.g. fossil energy) product (on energy basis). The results show that given the assumed efficiency of conversion technology, costs of conversion, biomass price and oil price, the production of second generation biofuel and biochemicals are the only competitive sectors compare to their conventional counterparts in the year 2030 for the EU. In the case of the fuel sectors, it represents a net GDP effect of 5.1 billion US$ while biochemicals generates 6 billion US$. A substantial part of this impact can be explained by the increase in wages, since the production of biomass is relatively labour intensive. The resulting increase in wages is transmitted to other sectors in the economy and increases production and consumption. Another important contributor is the lower oil and fuel price as a result of the substitution of oil based fuel production by bio-based fuel production, which in turn benefits the entire economy.
    Keywords: Bio-based, bio-energy, EU, Computable general equilibrium,
    JEL: Q42 Q20 Q17 Q18 C68
    Date: 2014–11
  11. By: Ekaterina Kakorina; Timerkhan Bakhautdinov; Elias Dmitriev
    Abstract: Since the signing of the US Energy Policy Act of 2005 by US President G.W.Bush a new market has been organized for trading a specific financial asset called Renewable Identification Numbers (RIN). RIN is a security, whose price is a tax stimulating fuel blenders and consumers in the USA to use more ecological fuels. The aim of this working paper is to introduce Russian readers to the basics of the RIN market, as information about the market is still scarce in Russian. In particular, we discuss such significant factors influencing the RIN market as mandate and blend wall. We also note the close link of the number of RINs in circulation with ethanol production. In the nearest future the problem of ethanol overproduction is likely to arise in the USA which might be resolved by its export to the EC and Canada. The possible dynamics of the RIN market in that respect are certainly of interest. Finally, although the market is still young, some large-scale cases of fraud have already been revealed. Those cases have attracted attention of regulators and may soon provide a reason for revision of RIN market rules.
    Keywords: Renewable Identification Number, ethanol market, renewable resources, biofuels, blender, environmental tax
    JEL: Q28
    Date: 2014–06–30
  12. By: Abraham Hollander; Yves Richelle
    Abstract: La Commission de Services Électriques de Montréal (CSEM) a pour mandat l’enfouissement des réseaux électriques sur le territoire de la ville de Montréal. Elle confie la réalisation des travaux à des entrepreneurs qu’elle choisit à l’aide d’appel d’offres. Ces appels d’offres ont un format relativement standard: la CSEM (i) identifie un projet à réaliser et fournit aux entrepreneurs la liste et la quantité de l’ensemble des articles qu’elle estime être nécessaire à la réalisation du projet; (ii) demande à chaque fournisseur intéressé et qualifié de lui soumettre par enveloppe scellée un bordereau qui contient un prix unitaire pour chacun des articles et (iii) choisit, pour réaliser le projet, le fournisseur dont le montant global de la soumission, calculé comme la somme, sur l’ensemble des articles, de la multiplication du prix unitaire présent au bordereau par la quantité estimée, est le plus faible.  La CSEM a analysé les résultats d’un certain nombre des appels d’offres qu’elle a réalisés, ce qui a révélé la présence de « reclassements ». Un reclassement consiste à observer que, calculé sur la base des quantités utilisées, le montant global de la soumission de l’adjudicataire est supérieur au montant global de la soumission d’un autre entrepreneur. Elle a identifié deux facteurs qui causent l’apparition de ce phénomène, à savoir, d’une part, des différences parfois substantielles entre les quantités estimées et les quantités utilisées et, d’autre part, des disparités parfois importantes entre les prix unitaires soumis par les différents soumissionnaires. La présence d’une disparité entre les prix soumis pour un article est ce que nous appellerons dans cette étude un « débalancement » des prix soumis. La CSEM a aussi noté que ces reclassements s’accompagnent d’un « sur-cout » qui correspond à la différence entre le montant global payé par la CSEM à l’adjudicataire et le montant global que la CSEM aurait payé si elle avait octroyé la réalisation du contrat à l’entrepreneur dont la soumission contient le montant global calculé à l’aide des quantités utilisées le plus faible. Pour réduire la fréquence d’apparition des reclassements, la CSEM a, depuis 2011, introduit une nouvelle règle dans ses appels d’offres, règle qui est appelée, « règle de proportionnalité ». La manière dont la règle de proportionnalité fonctionne est grosso modo la suivante. La CSEM sélectionne les articles sur lesquels la règle sera appliquée et indique aux fournisseurs les articles sélectionnés en les marquant, dans le bordereau, d’un double astérisque. Après réception des différentes soumissions, l’application de la règle procède en deux étapes. Lors de la première étape, pour chaque article pour lequel la règle de proportionnalité s’applique, on calcule (i) la moyenne des prix soumis pour cet article et (ii) pour chaque fournisseur, l’écart en pourcentage entre son prix soumis et cette moyenne. Tout fournisseur pour lequel l’écart en pourcentage dépasse, en valeur absolue, 60% pour au moins un article est automatiquement éliminé de l’appel d’offres. La deuxième étape commence par recalculer, pour l’ensemble des articles pour lesquels la règle de proportionnalité s’applique, la moyenne des prix soumis par les fournisseurs qui n’ont pas été éliminés à la première étape. Pour chaque fournisseur ayant survécu à la première étape et pour chaque article pour lequel la règle s’applique, on procède au calcul de l’écart en pourcentage entre son prix soumis et la nouvelle moyenne. Tout fournisseur pour lequel l’écart dépasse, en valeur absolue, 25% pour au moins un article est éliminé de l’appel d’offres. Il est évident que les éliminations prévues par la règle de proportionnalité vont conduire automatiquement à une réduction des écarts par rapport à la moyenne et donc aussi à une réduction entre le prix soumis le plus élevé et le plus bas. Toutefois, la règle de proportionnalité n’aura pas ce seul impact « mécanique ». La présence de cette règle de proportionnalité va inciter les entrepreneurs à modifier leur soumission pour éviter de se faire exclure, ce qu’ils feront en essayant de soumettre des prix unitaires relativement proches de leur anticipation de ce que sera la moyenne pour les articles pour lesquels la règle s’applique. Notre rapport contient une évaluation économique des impacts probables de l’introduction de la règle de proportionnalité sur les résultats des appels d’offres. Il cherche à savoir (i) s’il est possible d’établir un lien de cause à effet entre, d’une part, la réduction de la disparité entre les prix soumis pour un article induite par la règle de proportionnalité et, d’autre part, la fréquence d’apparition des reclassements et (ii) si l’utilisation de cette règle dans les appels d’offres de la CSEM a d’autres implications que la simple réduction des disparités entre les prix soumis pour les articles pour lesquels cette règle s’applique. Les principales conclusions auxquelles parvient l’analyse sont: l’impact d’une réduction du débalancement des prix unitaires sur la fréquence d’apparition des reclassements ainsi que sur l’ampleur du sur-cout lié à ces reclassements est indéterminé. Ceci implique immédiatement que l’impact de l’utilisation de la règle de proportionnalité sur la fréquence des reclassements ainsi que sur l’ampleur du sur-cout associé aux reclassements est incertain. l’utilisation de la règle de proportionnalité conduira probablement à une augmentation du montant global des soumissions. La facture payée par la CSEM pour la réalisation de travaux sera donc en moyenne plus élevée si l’entrepreneur est sélectionné à l’issue d’un appel d’offres dans lequel la règle de proportionnalité est en application que si l’entrepreneur était sélectionné à l’issue d’un appel d’offres dans lequel la règle de proportionnalité n’est pas utilisée. l’utilisation de la règle de proportionnalité accroît les possibilités de collusion. L’exclusion automatique de soumissionnaires prévue par la règle de proportionnalité peut être exploitée de manière stratégique, donnant ainsi l’opportunité à un plus grand nombre de coalitions collusives de se former. Nous arrivons donc naturellement à la recommandation de ne pas utiliser la règle de proportionnalité dans les appels d’offres. En effet, l’application de cette règle de proportionnalité solutionne moins de problèmes qu’elle ne génère de risques.
    Date: 2016–02–12
  13. By: Jing-Li Fan; Bao-Jun Tang; Hao Yu; Yun-Bing Hou; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: In this paper, we report 4 sets of 8 multivariate regression equations, introducing the socioeconomic factors for the estimation models of monthly electricity consumption in the primary, secondary, tertiary industry, and the household sectors, to study the quantitative effects of socioeconomic factors (electricity real price, activity level, income, holiday, etc.). The results demonstrate that the price elasticity of electricity demand in the household and the secondary industry sectors is significant. When the electricity price increases by 1%, the demand in the household and secondary industry sectors reduces by 0.4-0.5% with a time lag.
    Keywords: Socioeconomic factors, Monthly electricity consumption, Price elasticity
    JEL: Q40 Q58
    Date: 2014–08–23
  14. By: Manuel Baumann (IET/CICS.NOVA, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, and ITAS, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: Scarcity of fuels, changes in environmental policy and in society increased the interest in generating electric energy from renewable energy sources (RES) for a sustainable energy supply in the future. The main problem of RES as solar and wind energy, which represent a main pillar of this transition, is that they cannot supply constant power output. This results inter alia in an increased demand of backup technologies as batteries to assure electricity system safety. The diffusion of energy storage technologies is highly dependent on the energy system and transport transition pathways which might lead to a replacement or reconfiguration of embedded socio-technical practices and regimes (by creating new standards or dominant designs, changing regulations, infrastructure and user patterns). The success of this technology is dependent on hardly predictable future technical advances, actor preferences, development of competing technologies and designs, diverging interests of actors, future cost efficiencies, environmental performance, the evolution of market demand and design and evolution of our society.
    Keywords: Renewable energy, Electric energy, Transition pathways, Batteries
    JEL: O31 R40
    Date: 2015–01
  15. By: Emmanuel Hache; Déborah Leboullenger; Valérie Mignon
    Abstract: The need to reduce Green House Gases emissions has jointly lead to increasing concerns regarding the efficiency of national mitigation agendas and the potential exposure of certain households to energy poverty. Hence, the comprehension of the key determinants that influence the energy demand appears to be crucial for the effectiveness and fairness of energy policies. We particularly consider that targeting specific households’ groups rather than looking for a unique national target level of energy consumption would be more effective. This article explores the scope of having a disaggregated energy consumption market to design policies aimed at curbing residential energy consumption or lowering its carbon intensity. Using a clustering method based on CHAID (Chi Square Automatic Interaction Detection) methodology, we find that the different levels of energy consumption in the French residential sector are related to socio-economic, dwelling and regional characteristics. Then, we build a typology of energy-consuming households where targeted groups (fuel poor, high income and high consuming households) are clearly and separately identified through a simple and transparent set of characteristics. This classification represents an efficient tool for energy efficiency programs and energy poverty policies but also for potential investors, which could provide specific and tailor-made financial tools for the different groups of consumers. Furthermore, our approach is helpful to design an energy efficiency score that could reduce the rebound effect uncertainty for each identified household group.
    Keywords: Energy consumption, residential sector, clustering method, France.
    JEL: Q48 I32 C38
    Date: 2016
  16. By: ARVATE, Paulo; FALSETE, Filipe Ortiz; RIBEIRO, Felipe Garcia; SOUZA, André Portela
    Abstract: This paper estimates the effect of lighting on violent crime reduction. We explore an electrification program (LUZ PARA TODOS or Light for All - LPT) adopted by the federal government to expand electrification to rural areas in all Brazilian municipalities in the 2000s as an exogenous source of variation in electrification expansion. Our instrumental variable results show a reduction in homicide rates (approximately five homicides per 100,000 inhabitants) on rural roads/urban streets when a municipality moved from no access to full coverage of electricity between 2000 and 2010. These findings are even more significant in the northern and northeastern regions of Brazil, where rates of electrification are lower than those of the rest of the country and, thus, where the program is concentrated. In the north (northeast), the number of violent deaths on the streets per 100,000 inhabitants decreased by 48.12 (13.43). This moved a municipality at the 99th percentile (75th) to the median (zero) of the crime distribution of municipalities. Finally, we do not find effects on violent deaths in households and at other locations. Because we use an IV strategy by exploring the LPT program eligibility criteria, we can interpret the results as the estimated impact of the program on those experiencing an increase in electricity coverage due to their program eligibility. Thus, the results represent local average treatment effects of lighting on homicides.
    Date: 2016–01–19
  17. By: Shahbaz, Muhammad; Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad; Jammazi, Rania
    Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between U.S economic activity and renewable energy sources namely hydroelectric power, geothermal energy, wood energy, waste energy, biofuel, biomass energy, and total renewable energy. Monthly data for the period January 1981 to March 2015 is used to depict the comovements between the variables through Wavelet Squared Coherence (WTC) and Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWCC) approaches. Maximal overlap wavelet correlation and cross-correlation measures, analogous to WTC and MWCC, show strong positive comovement in long-run. The causal linkage between economic activity and renewable energy sources is examined through bootstrap rolling window causality. The analysis reveals the significant reciprocal effects between the economic activity and energy use during the periods of extreme events. Overall, findings indicate that renewable energy sources play an important role in stimulating economic activity. This shows that present study has important implications for US energy policy authorities.
    Keywords: Bootstrap rolling causality; economic activity; renewable energy sources; time-frequency analysis
    JEL: C0 C00
    Date: 2016–01–01
  18. By: Kuo, Po-Yao
    Abstract: Countries use greater quantities of electrical power as they develop economically.It is crucial to consider policies for Taiwan to realize available, economic, reliable and sustainable electricity systems in the future. The developments of global energy supply trends and the energy situations in various major economies, such as their energy self- sufficiency, electricity fuel mix and electricity carbon emission factors for electricity generation, are affecting the energy policy debate in Taiwan in recent years. Taiwan's previous energy policies were implemented in response to energy security and global warming with an intention to expand the nuclear power usage. However, following on from the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, Taiwan is now in the throes of reconstructing its new power policy. Taiwan's government has decided to reduce nuclear capacity progressively and the construction of new nuclear power plant has been frozen. Taiwan's renewable energy deployment targets have been escalated and more natural gas power plants will be used. However, the costs for alternative power options are lack of effective communication with the public. Due to strong protests from anti-nuclear activists, there were no solid conclusions formed in the National Energy Conference in January 2015 and a responsible energy policy was failed to be reached. It is obvious that the electricity reserve rates in Taiwan will be too low to avoid the risks of power rationing or power disruptions in the near future and if Taiwan's energy dilemma can't be solved.
    Date: 2015–03
  19. By: Yuti Ariani Fatimah (Eindhoven University of Technology); Saurabh Arora (SPRU, University of Sussex)
    Abstract: We develop the outlines of a new approach to study the role of nonhumans in constituting ‘implementation’ and calculative-discursive practices in development projects and programs. Developing a conceptual framework built on the concept of friction (material resistance or recalcitrance encountered in processes of transformation), we analyze an Energy Self-sufficient Village program in Indonesia. Focusing on specific projects and episodes within this program, we identify multiple distinctive instances of friction. These were driven by nonhumans’ (and humans’) resistance, as remolding of development beneficiaries’ practices was attempted by project administrators, government officials, entrepreneurs and by the (scientific) calculations embedded inside their policies, strategies and models. In concluding, we distill four ways in which nonhumans shape development practices: a) by resisting representations and calculations produced by human actors, b) by re-directing planned/expected courses of action, c) through biophysical change to their weight or textures as they move in space and time, and d) by mediating competition for resources. Overall, nonhumans play a central role in making and unmaking asymmetric relations of power. Their diverse material and discursive agency, which manifests differently in different relational settings, also highlights the importance of broadening the range of spokespersons who speak on behalf of nonhumans and whose voices can be considered reliable and true. Our study thus provides support to calls for pluralizing and democratizing development ‘expertise’ beyond the usual suspects in science, government and civil society.
    Keywords: actor-network theory, practices, relational agency, development policy, sustainable development, agrofuels, bioenergy, Indonesia
    Date: 2016–04
  20. By: Shahbaz, Muhammad; Mallick, Hrushikesh; Kumar, Mantu; Sadorsky, Perry
    Abstract: Using annual data for the period 1971-2012, this study explores the relationship between globalization and energy consumption for India by endogenizing economic growth, financial development and urbanization. The cointegration test proposed by Bayer-Hanck (2013) is applied to estimate the long-run and short-run relationships among the variables. After confirming the existence of cointegration, the overall results from the estimation of an ARDL energy demand function reveal that in the long run, the acceleration of globalization (measured in three dimensions - economic, social and overall globalization) leads to a decline in energy demand in India. Furthermore, while financial development is negatively related to energy consumption, economic growth and urbanization are the key factors leading to increased energy demand in the long run. These results have policy implications for the sustainable development of India. In particular, globalization and financial development provide a win-win situation for India to increase its economic growth in the long run and become more environmentally sustainable.
    Keywords: Globalization, Energy demand, India, Financial development
    JEL: C1
    Date: 2016–01–01
  21. By: Friedrich Kunz; Alexander Zerrahn
    Abstract: We employ a detailed two-stage model to simulate the operation of the Central Eastern European electricity market and network. Implementing different cases of coordination in congestion management between national transmission system operators, numerical results show the beneficial impact of closer cooperation. Specific steps comprise the sharing of network and dispatch information, cross-border counter-trading, and multilateral redispatch in a flow-based congestion management framework. Efficiency gains are accompanied by distributional effects. Closer economic cooperation becomes especially relevant against the background of changing spatial generation patterns, deeper international integration ofnational systems, and spillovers of national developments to adjacent systems.
    Keywords: Electricity, congestion management, network modeling, Europe
    JEL: C63 L51 L94
    Date: 2016
  22. By: Mandell, Svante (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology); Proost, Stef (Center for Economic Studies, KULeuven)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes how countries with international and local truck traffic decide to switch from a simple fuel tax system to a dual system of fuel and kilometer taxes. We show what drives a country to switch and how this affects the level of fuel taxes and the incentives for the other countries to also adopt the dual system. The model is partially able to explain the gradual extension of kilometer charging for trucks in Europe. The model also shows that, in the absence of diesel cars, the gradual introduction of kilometer charges will make fuel taxation for trucks virtually disappear and will lead to a system where truck use is (1) taxed mainly based on distance, but (2) is taxed too heavily. When the fuel tax must in addition serve as an externality tax for diesel cars, the introduction of distance charges for trucks will give rise to diesel taxes that are lower than the external cost of diesel cars. For trucks, this leads to a sum of diesel taxes and distance charges that are higher than the external cost of trucks.
    Keywords: Diesel taxes; fuel taxes; kilometer charges; tax competition; pricing of trucks
    JEL: H23 H73 L91 R48
    Date: 2015–04–01
  23. By: Arezki, Rabah (International Monetary Fund, Washington DC); Fetzer, Thiemo (University of Warwick)
    Abstract: This paper provides the first empirical evidence of the newly found comparative advantage of the United States manufacturing sector following the so-called shale gas revolution. The revolution has led to (very) large and persistent differences in the price of natural gas between the United States and the rest of the world owing to the physics of natural gas. Results show that U.S. manufacturing exports have grown by about 6 percent on account of their energy intensity since the onset of the shale revolution. We also document that the U.S. shale revolution is operating both at the intensive and extensive margins.
    Keywords: manufacturing, exports, energy prices, shale gas JEL Classification: Q33, O13, N52, R11, L71
    Date: 2016
  24. By: Weber, Jeremy G.; Burnett, J.Wesley; Xiarchos, Irene M.
    Abstract: We study the effects of the property tax base shock caused by natural gas drilling in the Barnett Shale in Texas–a state that taxes oil and gas wells as property. Over the boom and bust in drilling, housing appreciation closely followed the oil and gas property tax base, which expanded the total tax base by 23 percent at its height. The expansion led to a decline in property tax rates while maintaining or increasing revenues to schools. Overall, each $1 per student increase in the oil and gas property tax base increased the value of the typical home by $0.15. Some evidence suggests that the cumulative density of wells nearby may lower housing values, indicating that drilling could reduce local welfare without policies to increase local public revenues.
    Keywords: Shale Gas; Property Taxes; Housing Values
    JEL: H71 Q32 Q33
    Date: 2016–01–18
  25. By: Felipe Feijoo; Daniel Huppmann; Larissa Sakiyama; Sauleh Siddiqui
    Abstract: Natural gas as a source of energy has attracted a lot of interest as its emissions rate and price are lower than other fossil fuel energy sources. In the U.S., natural gas-fired power generation has been rising, as coal has declined as a share of the fuel mix. Likewise, Mexico recently launched its energy reform with focus on greatly expanding use of natural gas over other fossil fuels, primarily in the energy sector, by opening the market to private investors. These recent economic and policy changes, along with increasing gas production in the U.S. (shale gas boom) are likely to drive the natural gas market in North America in a new direction. For instance, the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 describes the U.S. for the first time as a net exporter of natural gas (via pipelines and LNG) by 2017. In order to study the current North American gas market with its new regulations like the Mexican energy reform, this paper presents the North American Natural Gas Market Model(NANGAM). We propose a long-term partial-equilibrium model of the United States, Mexican, and Canadian gas markets. NANGAM considers more granular details regarding market regions and pipelines in Mexico than other existing models, allows for endogenous infrastructure expansion, and is built in five year time-steps up to 2040, considering three seasons (low, high, and peak demand) for each time-step. NANGAM is calibrated using up-to-date data, which reflects current gas market trends, such as the increasing U.S. shale gas production. Using NANGAM, we assess the implications of the Mexican energy reform using a set of ad-hoc future scenarios. Results from the model show that, in the case of disappointing development of natural gas production in Mexico, the census region US7 (Texas and adjacent states) is the most affected, reaching an increase of natural gas production of up to 12% by 2040 compared to baseline projections.
    Keywords: North American natural gas scenarios, Mexican energy reform, dynamic market equilibrium model, mixed complementarity problem, infrastructure investment, capacity investment
    JEL: Q41 L71 Q37 C61
    Date: 2016
  26. By: Pierre Lasserre; Gérard Gaudet
    Date: 2015–05–29
  27. By: Anis H. Bajrektarevic (Austrian IMC University of Applied Sciences)
    Abstract: Regions, rich in energy resources, continue to be of crucial interest for our carbon-powered world. There are numerous things at stake to begin with, from international legal status, ownership rights, energy routes, transit corridors, state and corporate interests, environmental hazards and the overall puzzle of energy diplomacy. Additionally, Caspian is troubled with its own specific set of complexities that are listed in this work. They range from the undefined legal status, territorial disputes, ethnic instabilities and vicinity to other hot spots, such as the turmoil Middle East and the more recently sparked conflict in Ukraine. Besides the current and ongoing political, legal and security concerns, another layer of complexity represents the recent economic crisis and the steep fall in global energy prices. Caspian is already experiencing the negative effects of these trends, not to forget the implications of the crisis in the Russian Federation’s economic and currency sectors and the overall decline of investments in the region over the past two years. In addition to recouping the losses from energy trade, important consequence will therefore be a much tougher competition to attract investments in the future, inevitably resulting in greater concessions made on the invested side which is likely to impact regional stability. Because of its geographical setting, the Caspian is also of central interest for the European energy security, although the supply chain from the region has been traditionally kept under Russian Federation control. However, for the past decade or so, the EU is becoming increasingly ambitious in planning Caspian pipelines that exclude Russian Federation’s territory and the Nabucco Pipeline project was in the centre of these strategic efforts for a considerable amount of time. The Caspian is therefore also at a crossroads between grand and conflicting energy interests of Russian Federation and the Western Europe.
    Keywords: Caspian water plateau, geo-economic passions and imperatives, riparian states, hydrocarbons, energy security
    JEL: K32 Q4
    Date: 2015–05
  28. By: Takahiro Endo (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan); Yoritoshi Hara (Meiji University, School of Commerce); Yuki Tsuboyama (Hitotsubashi University, Graduate School of Commerce and Management)
    Abstract: This paper illustrates the situated construction of a marketing environment, in which power significantly matters. For this purpose, we shed light upon the meaning attached to diesel vehicles in Japan. The focus is justified by its uniqueness regarding the treatment of diesel vehicles and the scant attention to firms in the country since the early 1990s. By drawing upon critical discourse analysis that embraces the power relationship among relevant actors in attaching meaning to objects, we examined the key moment concerning discredited diesel vehicles in Japan, which centered around the year 2000. A central figure in this was then governor of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government, who was in office between 1999 and 2012. Importantly, the governor put primary emphasis on particulate matter emission from diesel vehicles and deflected attention from their lower carbon emissions, which has been of international concern since the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. The findings of this paper contribute to the deeper understanding of the nature of a marketing environment.
    Keywords: Critical discourse analysis, Diesel vehicles, Japan, Situated construction, Marketing environments
    Date: 2015–01
  29. By: Wensheng Kang; Ronald A. Ratti; Kyung Hwan Yoon
    Abstract: A mixture innovation time-varying parameter VAR model is used to examine the impact of structural oil price shocks on U.S. stock market return. Time variation is evident in both the coefficients and the variance-covariance matrix. The standard deviations of the demand side structural shocks reached forty year peaks during the global financial crisis and have remained high since. In the real stock return equation the coefficient of global real economic activity has declined since the late 1990s and that of oil-market specific demand oil shock has been lower since the early 1990s than before. The structural oil shocks account for 25.7% of the long-run variation in real stock returns overall, with substantial change in levels and sources of contribution over time. The contribution of shocks to global real economic activity to real stock return variation rose sharply to 22% in 2009 (and remains 17% over 2009-2012). The contribution of oil-market specific demand price shocks rose unevenly from 5% in the mid-1970s to about 15% in 2007, with a subsequent decline. The contribution of oil supply shocks has trended downward from 17% to 5% over 1973-2012.
    Keywords: mixture innovation, oil shocks, real stock return, time-varying parameter VAR
    JEL: E44 G10 Q41 Q43
    Date: 2015–08
  30. By: Michal Wilinski (Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland); Agnieszka Wilinska (Nicolaus Copernicus University, Poland)
    Abstract: The purpose of this article is to present problem in which the Russia found after the imposition of her economic and political sanctions by the European Union. It also shows the impact of the global figure the crude oil price to change the size of gross domestic product and the country's budget revenues. The models were to confirm the existence of consistent relationship between the studied variables and indicate the strength of this relationship, between the crude oil price and the size of Russia's GDP and exports in the country. The first model is indicative of the relationship between the change in the size of world crude oil prices and the value of gross domestic product. The second model shows the impact of world crude oil prices on the value of exports. The resulting models confirm that values and confirm the thesis of mine. An important element that should also pay attention to a problem related to the occurrence in the Russian economy Dutch disease. Russia's strong economic dependence on oil and natural gas causes such a violent change of the economic situation of the country from fluctuations in the world prices of crude oil and is a major cause of the economic crisis which took the Russian economy in 2014.
    Keywords: crisis, Russia, crude oil
    JEL: A11 A14 B16 B26
    Date: 2015–06
  31. By: Carlos Medel
    Abstract: Several years ago, the entire world experienced how fast and damaging certain inflationary shocks can be transmitted across seemingly uncorrelated countries. Despite the analysis of fuzzy transmission mechanisms, a direct inflationary transmission channel through global commodity prices shocks has been always of interest to policymakers—especially those concerned on imported inflation. The majority of international-to-domestic pass-through price measures are obviously insample estimations. However, in this article I analyse to what extent either global inflation or the Brent oil price provides more valuable information for future domestic inflation rates. I compare ten different multihorizon forecasts coming from a family of univariate time-series models for 53 countries. Each of these ten models is augmented with an exogenous variable—either and ad-hoc global inflation factor or Brent oil price. Overall, in almost 90% of the countries the use of any of these two variables improves the forecasting accuracy compared to the case without any exogenous factor. In 74 and 60% of the countries the global-inflation-based forecast outperforms oil-based forecast at 1- and 12-months-ahead. Twenty-four-months ahead the oil-based-forecast outperforms in 62% of the countries. Major predictive gains are observed for European OECD and Caribbean countries.
    Date: 2015–09
  32. By: Murshed, S.M.; Badiuzzaman, M.; Pulok, M.H.
    Abstract: This paper examines the effect of natural resource dependence on growth in a cross-country setting during 1970 to 2010, first accounting for the effect of resource export dependence on institutional development. We employ several political and governance indicators, numerous econometric techniques on two separate panels, including one post-cold war. Our findings suggest there is a resource curse adversely effecting growth via institutional deterioration in the longer term (1970-2010), but recently (1995-2012) there is a reversal of this adverse effect on some institutions. Moreover, certain institutions matter more for growth, including governance and constraints on the executive relative to democracy.
    Keywords: resource dependence, growth, institutions
    JEL: O13 O40 Q33
    Date: 2015–02–27
  33. By: Johansson, Per-Olov (Dept. of Economics)
    Abstract: There is no consensus with respect to handling of tradable permits in cost–benefit analysis. The leading (organizational/governmental) manuals in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia handle permits in different ways or ignore them. This paper offers a brief discussion of the properties of cap-and-trade systems, and contrast these to the properties of emission charges. The paper then turns to cost–benefit rules for projects using fossil fuels in a cap-and-trade system. The focus is on small projects but the paper also briefly addresses the case where a project significantly affect prices. As a service to the reader the small project rules are contrasted to the much more familiar and standardized ways of handling emission charges in cost–benefit analysis. Finally, the consequences of market power in cap-and-trade markets are briefly addressed.
    Keywords: Cost–benefit analysis; greenhouse gases; tradable permits; emission charges; market power
    JEL: H21 H23 H41 H43 I30 L13
    Date: 2015–11–04
  34. By: Klemetsen, Marit E. (University of Oslo/Statistics Norway); Rosendahl, Knut Einar (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences); Lund Jakobsen, Anja (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences)
    Abstract: This paper examines the impacts of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) on the envi- ronmental and economic performance of Norwegian plants. The EU ETS is regarded as the cornerstone climate policy both in the EU and in Norway, but there has been considerable de- bate regarding its eects due to low quota prices and substantial allocation of free allowances to the manufacturing industry. Both quota prices and allocation rules have changed signicantly between the three phases of the ETS. The rich data allow us to investigate potential eects of the ETS on several important aspects of plant behavior. The results indicate a weak tendency of emissions reductions among Norwegian plants in the second phase of the ETS, but not in the other phases. We nd no signicant eects on emissions intensity in any of the phases, but positive eects on value added and productivity in the second phase. Positive eects on value added and productivity may be due to the large amounts of free allowances, and that plants may have passed on the additional marginal costs to consumers.
    Keywords: Tradable emissions quotas; emissions intensity; productivity; propensity score matching; dierence-in-dierences
    JEL: C23 C54 D22 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2016–02–10
  35. By: Jian-Lei Mo (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Institute of Policy and Management - Chinese Academy of Sciences); Joachim Schleich (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research - Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University [Blacksburg] - Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, MTS - Management Technologique et Strategique - Grenoble École de Management (GEM)); Lei Zhu (University of Toronto); Ying Fan (School of Economics & Management - Beihang University)
    Abstract: Relying on real options theory, we employ a multistage decision model to analyze the effect of delaying the introduction of emission trading systems (ETS) on power plant investments in carbon capture and storage (CCS) retrofits, on plant operation, and on carbon dioxide (CO2) abatement. Unlike previous studies, we assume that the investment decision is made before the ETS is in place, and we allow CCS operating flexibility for new power plant investments. Thus, the plant may be run in CCS-off mode if carbon prices are low. We employ Monte Carlo simulation methods to account for uncertainties in the prices of CO2 certificates, other inputs, and output prices, relying on a realistic parameterization for a supercritical pulverized coal plant in China. We find that CCS operating flexibility lowers the critical carbon price needed to support CCS investment because it renders CCS investment less irreversible. For a low carbon price path, operating flexibility also implies that delaying the introduction of an ETS hardly affects plant CO2 abatement since the plant operator is better off purchasing emission certificates rather than operating the plant in CCS mode. Interestingly, for low carbon prices we find a U-shaped relation between the length of the delay and the economic value of the plant. Thus, delaying the introduction of an ETS may make investors worse off.
    Keywords: power plant investment, regulatory uncertainty, multistage decision, operating flexibility, real options theory, emissions trading, CCS, China
    Date: 2015–11
  36. By: Kohli, Deepti; Sinha, Pankaj
    Abstract: Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in our atmosphere have been increasing steadily due to the burning of fossil fuels such as coal, gas and oil, etc. CO2 being a Greenhouse Gas (GHG) has contributed to global warming resulting in the melting of polar ice caps and glaciers leading to a rise in the sea levels and finally culminating in the submerging of coastal and low-level areas all around the world. Thus, with the intention of controlling global warming and the rising CO2 emissions, the Kyoto Protocol was set up in 2005 to compel the developed countries to lower their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions thus giving rise to the concept of carbon credits, devised to reduce global carbon emission levels. However, the first phase of the sole international agreement to cut GHG emissions came to an end in 2012. The Kyoto Protocol has not been qualified as an absolute success seeing that it has not produced any demonstrable reduction in emission levels, and global temperatures are still rising at an alarming rate. A miscarriage of the treaty can also be sensed through the demeanor of countries like Canada, which pulled back from the treaty in 2011; Japan and Russia, who would not commit themselves beyond 2012 while the United States remains aloof. This study reviews the climate change regime and explores the concept of carbon credits, how carbon trading is occurring presently and also identifies some key issues concerning the same. The reasons for the unsatisfactory results of the Kyoto Protocol and prospects in mitigating climate change have also been discussed here.
    Keywords: carbon credits, carbon trading, clean development mechanism, emissions reduction, greenhouse gases, joint implementation, Kyoto Protocol
    JEL: Q01 Q5 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2014–07–03
  37. By: Johan Eyckmans; Sam Fankhauser; Snorre Kverndokk
    Abstract: This paper discusses the implications of climate change for official transfers from rich countries (the North) to poor countries (the South) when the motivation for transfers is ethical rather than strategic. Traditional development transfers to increase income and reduce poverty are complemented by new financial flows to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation transfers) and become climate-resilient (adaptation transfers). We find that in the absence of barriers to adaptation, mitigation or development, climate change will make isolated transfers less efficient: A large part of their intended effect (to increase income, reduce emissions, or boost climate-resilience) dissipates as the South reallocates its own resources to achieve the mitigation, adaptation and consumption balance it prefers. Only in the case of least-developed countries, which are unable to adapt fully due to income constraints, will adaptation support lead to more climate resilience. In all other cases, if the North wishes to change the balance between mitigation, adaptation and consumption it should structure its transfers as “matching grants”, which are tied to the South’s own level of funding. Alternatively, the North could provide an integrated “climate-compatible development” package that recognizes the combined climate and development requirements of the South. If the aim is to increase both mitigation and adaptation in the South, development assistance that increases the income level, can be an effective measure, but only if there is an international agreement and the recipient country is not income constrained. If the recipient country is very poor, development aid may reduce adaptation effort.
    Keywords: inequality aversion; mitigation; adaptation; climate finance; development assistance; institutional barriers
    JEL: F3 G3
    Date: 2015
  38. By: Nathalie de Marcellis-Warin; Ingrid Peignier; Minh Hoang Bui; Miguel F. Anjos; Steven A. Gabriel; Carla Guerra
    Abstract: L’énergie est essentielle au quotidien et sa disponibilité influence directement notre mode de vie. Par conséquentelle est au coeur d’un large éventail d’activités de l’état : réglementation, taxation, développement économique,enjeux politiques, etc. À cette liste s’est ajoutée depuis la fin du XXe siècle la question environnementale.Maintenant que le lien entre climat et consommation d’énergies fossiles est établi1 et qu’il semble au coeur despréoccupations des Québécois, il est nécessaire de se questionner sur notre avenir énergétique.Une des parties prenantes essentielle à la réflexion est la population. Pour qu’elle joue un rôle actif et contribuepositivement au dialogue, il est nécessaire qu’elle possède un niveau de connaissance adéquat des enjeuxénergétiques. Dans ce contexte, une enquête a été menée par Internet du 16 au 20 avril 2015, auprès d’unéchantillon de 1010 répondants, représentatifs de la population du Québec. Le questionnaire de cette enquête,élaboré conjointement par le CIRANO et l’IET, cherche à évaluer les connaissances des Québécois2 des enjeuxénergétiques et à sonder leurs perceptions sur différents thèmes en lien avec ces enjeux :• La connaissance des Québécois de la situation énergétique du Québec;• La perception des Québécois concernant les changements climatiques;• Les préférences des Québécois à l’échelle sociétale et leur disposition à payer;• Les comportements et habitudes des Québécois à l’échelle individuelle.Les premiers résultats tirés de l’enquête montrent que seulement 11% des Québécois pensent avoir un « grand »ou « très grand » niveau de connaissance de la situation énergétique du Québec. Les justificatifs invoqués sontle manque de temps ou d’intérêt, ne se sentant pas concerné par ces questions, mais surtout la complexité del’information sur le sujet et sa difficulté d’accès. Celle consultée est souvent qualifiée de floue, incomplète, voirebiaisée par intérêt des sources (lobbys, gouvernements, corporations, etc.) Il apparait que l’accès à l’informationinfluence le niveau de connaissance : les Québécois affichant les plus hauts niveaux de connaissance sur lepétrole – ressource la mieux connue selon le sondage – sont aussi plus nombreux à consulter la presse (payanteou gratuite) ou les publications du gouvernement provincial.Certaines réponses confirment le niveau de connaissance limité. Par exemple, seulement 20 % des Québécoissavent que près de la moitié de l’énergie consommée au Québec provient de sources renouvelables. Il sembled’ailleurs que la définition « d’énergie renouvelable » ne soit pas commune à tous puisque 25 % desQuébécois ont identifié le nucléaire comme une source renouvelable, de même que 17 % pour le pétrole, 13 %pour le charbon et 27 % pour le gaz naturel. L’écart entre ce dernier résultat et le 12 % pour le gaz de schiste– une source de gaz naturel – soulève une question : le niveau de connaissance d’une source d’énergie est-ilcorrélé à sa couverture médiatique?Sur les questions climatiques, les perceptions des Québécois sont en phase avec les conclusions du plus récentrapport du Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC)3. Les Québécois sont eneffet 84 % à constater une augmentation des catastrophes naturelle à l’échelle planétaire et 75 % à attribuercette augmentation au réchauffement climatique. Questionnés sur les origines de ce phénomène, 69 % desQuébécois n’ont aucun doute que le réchauffement climatique est lié à l’activité humaine. Cette opinion estpartagée par 77 % de ceux qui s’informent auprès d’associations spécialisées et 66% de ceux ne s’y informantpas; il s’agit d’une majorité ferme de la population qui estime que le réchauffement climatique est lié à l’activitéhumaine, même considérant de potentiels biais idéologiques. Reste à savoir maintenant comment ce constatse transpose en volonté de changement et à quel coût.La plus grande source d’énergie non renouvelable consommée au Québec, le pétrole, répond à 37 % de lademande en énergie et est entièrement importé4. Bien qu’irremplaçable à court terme, les résultats de l’enquêteindiquent un souhait de réduire notre dépendance à l’importation. L’option choisie à 42 % est l’exploitationéventuelle de notre propre sous-sol, devançant l’approvisionnement de l’Ouest (19 %) et de l’Est (14 %) duCanada. Cette opinion doit être mise en perspective avec un résultat d’un précédent sondage5 montrant que38 % des Québécois privilégient le recours aux énergies renouvelables à l’exploitation d’éventuelles sourcesquébécoises de pétrole.Cette préférence se confirme dans la présente étude puisque parmi quatre mesures visant à limiter leur impactsur l’environnement, l’investissement dans le développement des filières énergétiques renouvelables est lamesure qui trouve la faveur des répondants. Elle est suivie par l’investissement dans la recherche sur l’efficacitéénergétique. Viennent ensuite les efforts de sensibilisation et promotion d’énergies alternatives, et finalementl’amélioration de l’offre en transport en commun. Le fait de privilégier l’investissement dans les énergiesrenouvelables et l’efficacité énergétique porte à croire que la population est consciente de l’importancedes changements à apporter et de l’ampleur des efforts à déployer. Mais est-elle prête à les accepter? A lalumière des résultats, il semble que oui. Les Québécois se sont majoritairement dits en faveur des projetsliés aux énergies renouvelables, de même qu’ils se sont dits majoritairement contre la plupart des projetsliés aux énergies non-renouvelables. Les résultats montrent que le paramètre de proximité géographiquen’affecte pas l’ordre de préférence des projets, mais que tous les projets subissent une baisse significative deleur pourcentage d’appui s’ils devaient être réalisés dans le voisinage des répondants. Ce constat vient illustrerempiriquement le phénomène du «Pas dans ma cour » ou NIMBY (Not In My Backyard).Les Québécois sont en faveur des énergies renouvelables, certes, mais leur disposition à en assumer les coûtsde développement semble faible, selon les résultats observés. En effet, seulement 12 % des Québécoisaccepteraient de payer 50 $ de plus par mois sur leur facture d’électricité afin de soutenir le développementdes filières renouvelables. Cependant, le sondage montre que les Québécois présentent une sensibilité au prix.Si le prix du litre d’essence atteignait 2 $ de façon durable, ils adapteraient leurs habitudes afin de moins enconsommer : changer de voiture pour une qui consomme moins (38 %) ou une électrique (24 %), covoiturer(18 %), réduire les sorties (30 %) ou magasiner à proximité (27 %). De la même manière, une hausse du prixde l’électricité de 50 % pousserait 76 % des gens à en limiter leur consommation.Bien que la population reconnaisse la nécessité d’un changement d’habitudes de consommation d’énergie,elle ne se perçoit pas comme actrice du changement. Les Québécois estiment avoir peu (45 %) ou pas(15 %) d’influence sur la situation énergétique du Québec. Faut-il établir un lien avec leur faible volontéà assumer des coûts additionnels? Ou est-ce qu’ils évaluent mal leur influence parce qu’ils ne se voient pasliés aux secteurs grands consommateurs d’énergie (le transport et l’industrie)? Ils reconnaissent pourtantque leur comportement influence moyennement (39 %) ou grandement (20 %) la consommationtotale d’énergie au Québec. Qu’est-ce qui les empêche de transposer ce sentiment d’influence à la situationénergétique du Québec?Un début de réponse à cette interrogation – et à plusieurs la précédant – est très certainement de donneraccès à plus d’information sur les enjeux énergétiques. C’est une condition essentielle à la qualité de laparticipation citoyenne aux débats sociaux sur les questions d’énergie. Dans la foulée de cette enquête ainsi quede la publication en février 2015 du livre blanc L’énergie au Québec et au Canada : un document pour engagerla conversation6, diverses initiatives seront entamées au CIRANO et à l’IET afin de promouvoir la sensibilisationet la participation de la population en ce qui concerne les choix énergétiques du Québec.
    Date: 2015–05–27
  39. By: Jane Ellis; Sara Moarif
    Abstract: There are many reasons why the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reporting framework requests information from countries. These include understanding and tracking progress with individual or collective commitments or pledges, providing confidence and enhancing accountability in quantified information measured and reported, and providing background information on the scope and ambition of national climate responses. This paper highlights the gaps, inconsistencies and uncertainties in the current reporting framework, which was developed for both long-standing obligations and mitigation pledges for the period to 2020. The paper also identifies possible improvements in the UNFCCC reporting framework in the context of the post-2020 transparency framework and nationally determined contributions (NDCs) for the post-2020 period. Recenser et combler les lacunes du cadre de notification d'informations de la CCNUCC La Convention-cadre des Nations Unies sur les changements climatiques (CCNUCC), qui invite les pays à lui communiquer des informations, vise plusieurs objectifs : mieux cerner les progrès accomplis dans la mise en oeuvre des engagements individuels ou collectifs et en assurer le suivi ; accroître la confiance dans les informations chiffrées communiquées par les pays et renforcer la transparence ; et fournir des renseignements sur le champ d’application et le niveau d’ambition des mesures climatiques nationales. Ce document met en évidence les lacunes, incohérences et incertitudes de l’actuel cadre de notification qui a été élaboré pour rendre compte à la fois des obligations de longue date des pays et de leurs engagements d’atténuation jusqu’en 2020. Il identifie aussi les améliorations qui pourraient être apportées au système de notification de la CCNUCC en ce qui concerne le cadre de transparence et les contributions déterminées au niveau national pour la période de l’après-2020.
    Keywords: transparency, climate change, emissions, reporting, adaptation, adaptation, transparence, émissions, changement climatique
    JEL: F39 H39 O20 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2015–11
  40. By: Ha-Duong Minh (CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - Université des Sciences et des Technologies de Hanoi, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)
    Keywords: economics,climate change
    Date: 2015–03–30
  41. By: Scott J. Goetz, Matthew Hansen, Richard A. Houghton, Wayne Walker, Nadine Laporte, and Jonah Busch
    Abstract: This paper presents an overview of the state of measurement and monitoring capabilities for forests in the context of REDD+ needs, with a focus on what is currently possible, where improvements are needed, and what capabilities will be advanced in the near-term with new technologies already under development. We summarize the role of remote sensing (both satellite and aircraft) for observational monitoring of forests, including measuring changes in their current and past extent for setting baselines, their carbon stock density for estimating emissions in areas that are deforested or degraded, and their regrowth dynamics following disturbance. We emphasize the synergistic role of integrating field inventory measurements with remote sensing for best practices in monitoring, reporting and verification. We also address the potential of remote sensing for enforcing safeguards on conservation of natural forests and biodiversity. We argue that capabilities exist now to meet operational needs for REDD+ measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) and reference levels. For some other areas of importance for REDD+, such as safeguards for natural forests and biodiversity, monitoring capabilities are approaching operational in the near term. For all REDD+ needs, measurement capabilities will rapidly advance in the next few years as a result of new technology as well as advances in capacity building both within and outside of the tropical forest nations on which REDD+ is primarily focused.
    Keywords: Climate Change; Mitigation; Forests; REDD+; Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV); Technology
    JEL: Q23 Q54
    Date: 2014–12
  42. By: Achim Hagen (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Leonhard Kaehler (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Klaus Eisenack (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper explores transnational environmental agreements on climate change. As the Paris agreement of 2015 contains no binding emission reduction targets for nation states, understanding other forms of cooperation as complements to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) process becomes increasingly important. We thus aim to identify directions for further research on agreements with heterogeneous contracting parties. By building on empirical examples of emerging transnational environmental agreements, and on insights from the global governance literature, we discuss the scope and limits of the current economic literature on international environmental agreements. We argue that further game theoretical research would benefit from extending the analysis (i) to consider actors that are not nation state governments, and (ii) to consider multiple environmental agreements that are in force at the same time. We underpin this claim by suggesting two proposals for economic models that analyze climate clubs and city alliances. The results show that transnational environmental agreements can be individually rational and can improve the effectiveness of climate policies.
    Keywords: heterogeneous actors, international environmental agreements, transnational agreements
    JEL: C72 Q54
    Date: 2016–01
  43. By: İriş, Doruk
    Abstract: In the standard emission problem, each country’s ruling party decides on an optimal level of emissions by analyzing the cost and benefit to the country. However, such policy decisions are often influenced by political parties’ incentives to be elected. Voters tend to give higher priority to economic issues than they do to environmental ones. As a result, political parties have additional incentives to reach a critical economic benefit level, at a cost of higher emission level, in order to satisfy voters’ expectations in economic issues. Therefore, this study explores the implications of political parties being averse to insufficient economic performance relative to a critical economic target level on sustaining an international environmental agreement on emission levels. In doing so, we allow countries to have asymmetric concerns about economic targets, as well as asymmetric technology levels. We find that stronger concerns about economic targets deter the most cooperative emission levels countries could jointly sustain. Furthermore, technological asymmetry could either deepen or offset this impact. These results suggest that efforts on achieving substantial international environmental agreements should be supported at the citizen level to eliminate the adverse effects.
    Keywords: Emission Problem; Economic Targets; Loss-Aversion; International Environmental Agreements; Repeated Game
    JEL: D03 Q50 Q58
    Date: 2015–09–15
  44. By: Mário Alexandre Patrício Martins da Silva (Faculdade de Economia do Porto)
    Abstract: In this paper, we focus on endogenous technological opportunity and its effects upon R&D outcomes in the independent and cooperative cases. In light of the importance of spillovers in economic analysis of R&D incentives, we examine the relationship between R&D appropriability and R&D investment in the presence of an endogenous technological opportunity. In order to do this, we develop a three-stage game in which firms first choose their R&D orientations, then how much to invest in R&D, and finally their Cournot outputs. Contrary to the usual assumption made in oligopoly models that technological opportunity is external to the industry where firms operate, we fully endogenize technological possibilities through the firms’ choices of their R&D approaches. We find that competing firms invest more in R&D as spillovers increase (and R&D appropriability diminishes) but still less than cooperating firms no matter the degree of exogenous spillovers. This is a reversal of well-known results established in the literature on R&D and spillovers.
    Keywords: Technological opportunity, R&D spillovers, R&D investment, absorptive capacity
    JEL: O30
    Date: 2016–02
  45. By: Stefano Bosi; David Desmarchelier
    Abstract: PTo study the relationship between a Laffer Curve and the Green Paradox, we consider a Ramsey model with endogenous labor supply, where pollution increases the consumption demand (compensation effect). In the long run, the conditions for a Laffer curve and the Green Paradox are mutually exclusive: the curve exists under a weak compensation effect while the paradox under a strong effect. In the short run, limit cycles arise only if a Laffer curve exists but never occur in the case of Green Paradox.
    Keywords: Ramsey model, Pollution, Laffer Curve, Green Paradox, Hopf bifurcation.
    JEL: O34 Q16 C41
    Date: 2016

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