nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2016‒02‒12
nineteen papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Cumulative Emissions,Unburnable Fossil Fuel and the Optimal Carbon Tax By Armon Rezai; Frederick van der Ploeg
  2. Cars, carbon taxes and CO2 emissions By Julius J. Andersson
  3. Carbon tax, pollution and spatial location of heterogeneous firms By Nelly Exbrayat; Stéphane Riou; Skerdilajda Zanaj
  4. The U.S. oil supply revolution and the global economy By Mohaddes, Kamiar; Raissi, Mehdi
  5. Consumer Search in Retail Gasoline Markets By David P. Byrne; Nicolas de Roos
  6. Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us By Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz
  7. Russia and China hydrocarbon relations A building block toward international hydrocarbon regulation? By Catherine Locatelli; Mehdi Abbas; Sylvain Rossiaud
  8. Do resource-rich countries suffer from a lack of fiscal discipline ? By Bleaney,Michael Francis; Halland,Havard
  9. Dynamiczne wlasnosci miar ubostwa energetycznego By Maciej Lis; Agata Miazga; Michal Ramsza
  10. Ressources naturelles renouvelables et comptabilité des organisations By Michel Trommetter
  11. Strategic trade in pollution permits By Alex Dickson; Ian A. MacKenzie
  12. Editorial: Data-driven innovations in policy-oriented freight transport models and planning methods By Jesus Gonzalez Feliu; Anne Goodchild; David Guerrero
  13. HOW WE CAN RESTORE THE BALANCE IN THE ROMANIAN ENERGY MARKET (International Conference "Recent Advances in Economic and Social Research", 13-14 mai 2015, București) By Alina Cristea
  14. Public Service Innovation: Solid Waste Sector from the Perspective of Clean Development Mechanism Landfill Projects By Silvia Cruz; Sônia Paulino; Faïz Gallouj
  15. VC financing and market growth – Interdependencies between technology-push and market-pull investments in the US solar industry By Florian Schock; Jan Mutl; Florian Taübe; Paschen P. von Flotow
  16. Are the S&P 500 Index and Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Ethanol Futures Related for Intra-Day Data? By Caporin, M.; Chang, C-L.; McAleer, M.J.
  17. Clean Energy and Sustainable Development lab activity report, 2014-09-31 to 2015-12-31 By Minh Ha-Duong; Hoang Anh Tran
  18. The impacts of the EU ETS on Norwegian plants' environmental and economic performance By Marit E. Klemetsen; Knut Einar Rosendahl; Anja Lund Jakobsen
  19. Double Moral Hazard and the Energy Efficiency Gap By Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet; Sébastien Houde

  1. By: Armon Rezai (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria); Frederick van der Ploeg (Oxford University, Manor Road Building, Oxford OX1 3UQ, U.K.)
    Abstract: A new IAM is used to calculate the optimal tradeoff between, on the one hand,locking up fossil fuel and curbing global warming, and, on the other hand, are the key driving force of changes in temperature. We highlight how time impatience, intergenerational inequality aversion and expected trend growth affect the time paths of the optimal global carbon tax and the optimal amount of fossil fuel reserves to leave untapped. We also compare these with the adverse and deleterious global warming trajectories that occur if no policy actions are taken.
    Keywords: unburnable fossil fuel, cumulative emissions, optimal carbon tax,Oxford carbon cycle, trend growth, intergenerational inequality aversion, time impatience
    Date: 2016–01
  2. By: Julius J. Andersson
    Abstract: Is a carbon tax effective in reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, and thereby mitigating climate change? I estimate the reduction in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the transport sector in Sweden during the years 1990 to 2005 as a result of the introduction of a carbon tax and a value added tax (VAT) on transport fuel in the years 1990-1991. To capture the causal effect on emissions I construct a synthetic Sweden, the counterfactual Sweden that does not receive the ‘treatment’ in 1990-1991, using the synthetic control method. The results show a reduction in emissions of 10.9% during the post-treatment period of 1990-2005, equivalent to 2.5 million metric tons of CO2 in the annual total. Looking at the effect of the carbon tax in isolation I estimate a post-treatment reduction of 4.9%, equivalent to 1.1 million metric tons of CO2 in an average year. The results are robust to a series of placebo tests, both in-time and in-space. Taken together, my findings show that a carbon tax can be an efficient tool to mitigate climate change.
    Date: 2015–10
  3. By: Nelly Exbrayat (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Stéphane Riou (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UCBL - Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - PRES Université de Lyon - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon); Skerdilajda Zanaj (CREA - Center for Research in Economic Analysis - - Université du Luxembourg, CREA - Centre for Research in Economics and Management - - Université du Luxembourg)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the ability of a fully harmonized carbon tax to curb carbon emissions in a globalized economy characterized by an uneven spatial distribution of heterogeneous firms. The level of the carbon tax matters for the direction of the relocation and its impact on global emissions. When the carbon tax is low enough, emissions are reduced as firms relocate to the smaller country to pay lower taxes by reducing their output. If the carbon tax is too high, then firms react by relocating to the larger country to maintain their export activity, so that the most environmentally friendly spatial configurations can be removed.
    Keywords: global carbon tax, heterogeneous firms, international trade, firm location
    Date: 2016
  4. By: Mohaddes, Kamiar (Girton College and University of Cambridge); Raissi, Mehdi (International Monetary Fund)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2. Set-identification of the U.S. oil supply shock is achieved through imposing dynamic sign restrictions on the impulse responses of the model. The results show that there are considerable heterogeneities in the responses of different countries to a U.S. supply-driven oil price shock, with real GDP increasing in both advanced and emerging market oil-importing economies, output declining in commodity exporters, inflation falling in most countries, and equity prices rising worldwide. Overall, our results suggest that following the U.S. oil revolution, with oil prices falling by 51 percent in the first year, global growth increases by 0.16 to 0.37 percentage points. This is mainly due to an increase in spending by oil importing countries, which exceeds the decline in expenditure by oil exporters.
    JEL: C32 E17 F44 F47 O13 Q43
    Date: 2016–01–01
  5. By: David P. Byrne (University of Melbourne); Nicolas de Roos (University of Sydney)
    Abstract: This paper develops novel direct tests for search behavior in retail gasoline markets. We exploit a unique market-level dataset that allows us to directly measure search intensity with daily web traffic data from a gasoline price reporting website and perfectly measure daily changes in price levels and dispersion. Our simple yet powerful tests provide strong evidence of both cross-sectional and intertemporal price search behavior.
    Keywords: search, price dispersion, retail gasoline
    JEL: D8 L8
    Date: 2015–03
  6. By: Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz
    Abstract: It has been forty years since the oil crisis of 1973/74. This crisis has been one of the defining economic events of the 1970s and has shaped how many economists think about oil price shocks. In recent years, a large literature on the economic determinants of oil price fluctuations has emerged. Drawing on this literature, we first provide an overview of the causes of all major oil price fluctuations between 1973 and 2014. We then discuss why oil price fluctuations remain difficult to predict, despite economists’ improved understanding of oil markets. Unexpected oil price fluctuations are commonly referred to as oil price shocks. We document that, in practice, consumers, policymakers, financial market participants and economists may have different oil price expectations, and that, what may be surprising to some, need not be equally surprising to others.
    Keywords: Oil market; Oil price expectations; Oil price shock; Peak oil; Unconventional oil
    JEL: C53 Q43
    Date: 2016–01
  7. By: Catherine Locatelli (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier); Mehdi Abbas (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier); Sylvain Rossiaud (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - UJF - Université Joseph Fourier)
    Abstract: This article is a first step of a research agenda on international hydrocarbon regulations. With regards to both: i) the new wealth and power equilibrium in the international political economy and ii) the new political economy of carbon that is emerging from The Paris agreement on Climate changes, this research agenda aims at analysing the changing national structures of governance and the ways these changes lead to international, bilateral, plurilateral or multilateral hydrocarbon regulation.
    Keywords: hydrocarbon regulation,international governance
    Date: 2015–12
  8. By: Bleaney,Michael Francis; Halland,Havard
    Abstract: Fiscal indicators for resource-rich and resource-poor low- and middle-income countries are compared using annual data from 1996 to 2012. Resource richness is defined by export composition: fuel greater than a 25 percent share and/or ores and metals greater than a 10 percent share. Fuel exporters have a significantly better general government fiscal balance than the rest of the sample, and higher revenues and expenditures, which are approximately evenly split between extra consumption expenditure and extra capital expenditure. Only about a quarter of their extra revenue goes into extra consumption expenditure, and this proportion has been lower since 2005. Fuel exporters'expenditure reacts with a lag to oil price fluctuations. There are no significant differences between ores and metals exporters and resource-poor countries, or between new and old resource exporters, in aggregate expenditures and revenues. Ores and metals exporters spend more on investment and less on government consumption. Some individual country cases are briefly discussed.
    Keywords: Currencies and Exchange Rates,Debt Markets,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Markets and Market Access
    Date: 2016–02–02
  9. By: Maciej Lis; Agata Miazga; Michal Ramsza
    Abstract: Celem niniejszej pracy jest zbadanie wplywu zmian w cenach, dochodach oraz strukturze gospodarstw domowych na zasieg ubostwa energetycznego w Polsce do roku 2030. W tym celu zbudowane zostaly scenariusze zmian w kazdym wyroznionym wymiarze (struktura demograficzna, poziom dochodow, struktura budynkow oraz ceny energii). Symulacyjnie wyznaczono, w jakim zakresie te scenariusze przeloza sie na zakres ubostwa energetycznego, mierzonego absolutnie, relatywnie oraz subiektywnie. Analize przeprowadzamy za pomoca statyczno-dynamicznego modelu mikrosymulacyjnego. Wyniki wskazuja, ze ze wzrost cen energii o 1% przelozy sie na wzrost wydatkow na energie jedynie o 0,1-0,2%. Wzrost dochodow wplynie na niewielki spadek wydatkow energetycznych w strukturze konsumpcji. Do roku 2030 nie przewidujemy znaczacych zmian w skali ubostwa energetycznego w Polsce. Wedlug miary relatywnej (LIHC) oraz miary subiektywnej skala zjawiska nieznacznie sie zmniejszy, a wedlug miary absolutnej '10% dochodow' nieznacznie sie powiekszy.
    Keywords: modelowanie, ubostwo energetyczne, microsimulation modelling, energy poverty
    JEL: C53 D12 I32 Q41
    Date: 2016–01
  10. By: Michel Trommetter (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble 2)
    Abstract: Face aux défis environnementaux – changement climatique et érosion de la biodiversité -, il ne s'agit pas nécessairement de remettre en cause le système capitaliste, mais de le réformer pour que le maintien, voire la création, de capital naturel soit créateur de valeur. Pour une organisation, la création de valeur passe aujourd'hui par un système comptable internationalement reconnu. Nous proposons donc dans ce papier des pistes de travail pour construire de nouvelles règles comptables, par exemple en termes d'amortissement ou d'augmentation du capital, qui permettent de mieux intégrer les questions de biodiversité dans la stratégie des organisations.
    Date: 2015
  11. By: Alex Dickson (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Ian A. MacKenzie (School of Economics, The University of Queensland)
    Abstract: Markets for pollution have become a popular regulatory instrument. Yet these markets are often highly concentrated, which may lead to strategic behavior by all participants. In this article we investigate the implications of strategic trade in pollution permits. The permit market is developed as a strategic market game, where all firms are allowed to behave strategically and their roles as buyers or sellers of permits are determined endogenously with price-mediated trade. In a second stage, firms transact on a product market and we allow for a variety of market structures. Our framework establishes the endogenous determination of equilibrium price, market structure, and levels of exchange in the permit market.
    Keywords: Pollution market, Market power, Strategic market game
    JEL: C72 D43 D51 L13 Q53
    Date: 2016–01–29
  12. By: Jesus Gonzalez Feliu (FAYOL-ENSMSE - Institut Henri Fayol - Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne - Institut Mines-Télécom); Anne Goodchild (University of Washington - University of Washington [Seattle]); David Guerrero (IFSTTAR/AME/SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - PRES Université Paris-Est)
    Abstract: Freight transport is a challenging economic sector, as it is essential for the functioning of production and distribution systems but and the same time is at the origin of many nuisances such as congestion, greenhouse gas emissions, pollution and noise. When responding to these issues, planners dispose nowadays of a growing body of freight data that can be used for the implementation of policies towards achieving smart mobility. Because contrary to current practice and dominant discourse, smart mobility is not just a matter of passengers: it also largely relies on more sustainable freight plays an transport. Policy makers see in those new sources of data an opportunity to increase their knowledge on freight transport as well as to have suitable decision support tools to the choices they need to make. In developed countries this trend is illustrated by the increasing requirement of data by recent legislation on freight transport. But these data are not always easily available, and when they are, they are not necessarily adapted to the needs of practitioners. This mismatch partly results in a lack of dialogue between researchers and practitioners, that this special issue intends to promote.
    Date: 2016–01–01
  13. By: Alina Cristea (PhD Candidate, Academy of Economic Studies)
    Abstract: National Power System is a complex system that includes a number of subsystems with different structures and components. With market power relations between subsystems SEN is performed on a commercial basis. Units of the system must create information systems and specific research in order to follow the dynamic environment by adopting specific strategies trends and evolution. The introduction of competition in the production and distribution of electricity requires a rethinking of business activity in the energy system units. Claims liberalized energy market participants flexible behavior imposed by the existence of competition and the need to adapt to all the changes that occur constantly. Market mechanism should introduce competitive pressure from increasingly large on companies in the sector, directly or through contracts and tariffs. In a competitive environment the producers will have to reduce their costs given that the installed capacity exceeds consumer demand. Energy suppliers are obliged to diversify their services and will be encouraged to find the most appropriate level of security in energy supply. Entering the competition implies responsiveness to consumers
    Keywords: mathematical model, balance, energy market
    JEL: C6 E2 E3 L7
    Date: 2015–12
  14. By: Silvia Cruz (UNICAMP - University of Campinas [Campinas] - University of Campinas); Sônia Paulino (University of Sao Paolo); Faïz Gallouj (Clersé - UMR CNRS 8019 - Institut de Sociologie et d'Anthropologie - Université Lille 1 - Sciences et technologies)
    Abstract: This paper is devoted to public services innovation in the municipal solid waste sector. It analyses the implementation of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects in the Bandeirantes and São João landfills in the municipality of São Paulo, Brazil. The study is based on the concept of Public-Private Innovation Networks in services (ServPPINs). Using the ServPPIN concept it was possible to identify competence gaps affecting the stakeholders involved in these CDM projects. We focus in particular on those organisational and relational competence gaps that are likely to weaken innovation feasibility in services related to solid waste. In fact, innovation is closely linked to the development of new competences among service providers and users. For the most part, these will arise out of changes in interactions between actors-given that the projects in question include the coordination of various actors (public, private, and citizen).
    Keywords: landfill,public service innovation,clean development mechanism,ServPPIN
    Date: 2015–09
  15. By: Florian Schock; Jan Mutl; Florian Taübe; Paschen P. von Flotow
    Date: 2015
  16. By: Caporin, M.; Chang, C-L.; McAleer, M.J.
    Abstract: The energy sector is one of the most important in the world, so that time series fluctuations in leading energy sources have been analysed widely. As the leading energy commodities are traded on international stock exchanges, the analysis of the fluctuations in stock and financial derivatives prices and returns have also been investigated extensively in recent years. Much of the empirical analysis has concentrated on using daily, weekly or monthly data, with little research based on intra-day data. The paper analyses the relationships among the S&P 500 Index and futures prices, returns and volatility of three leading energy commodities, namely crude oil, natural gas and ethanol, using intra- day data. The detailed analysis of intra-day temporal aggregation in examining returns relationships and volatility spillovers across the equity and energy futures markets, and the effects of overnight returns, volume, realized volatility, asymmetry, and spillovers across the four financial markets, leads to interesting and useful results for decision making and hedging strategies. The empirical results relating to alternative models of mean and variance feedback and asymmetry for intra-daily returns, asymmetry and volatility spillovers, and dynamic conditional correlations and covariances, show that the relationships between the stock market and alternative energy financial derivatives, specifically futures prices and returns, can and do vary according to the trading range, whether daily or overnight effects are considered, and the temporal aggregation and time frequencies that are used.
    Keywords: Trading range, Intra-day prices and returns, S&P 500 Index, Crude oil futures, Natural gas futures, Ethanol futures, Overnight returns, Overnight volume, Overnight realized volatility, Asymmetry, Spillovers
    JEL: C22 C32 C58 G12 G15
    Date: 2016–02–01
  17. By: Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech, CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - Université des Sciences et des Technologies de Hanoi); Hoang Anh Tran (CleanED - Clean Energy and Sustainable Development Lab - USTH - Université des Sciences et des Technologies de Hanoi)
    Abstract: The Clean Energy and Sustainable Development laboratory – CleanED – was established in December 2014 with support from USTH and French Embassy in Hanoi. In September 2015, CleanED lab counted five researchers from France and Vietnam, five doctoral fellows and two internationally qualified staff. This international and interdisciplinary research team gets the mission to contribute to the green growth of the energy sector in Vietnam. Its expertise ranges from engineering to public policy on: Natural resources characterization and management Biomass and waste to energy conversion process technologies Energy systems optimization from smart grid to national plans
    Keywords: clean energy, biomass energy, sustainable development, Vietnam, cooperation, activity report, smart grid
    Date: 2016–01–27
  18. By: Marit E. Klemetsen; Knut Einar Rosendahl; Anja Lund Jakobsen (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: This paper examines the impacts of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) on the environmental and economic performance of Norwegian plants. The EU ETS is regarded as the cornerstone climate policy both in the EU and in Norway, but there has been considerable debate regarding its effects due to low quota prices and substantial allocation of free allowances to the manufacturing industry. Both quota prices and allocation rules have changed significantly between the three phases of the ETS. The rich data allow us to investigate potential effects of the ETS on several important aspects of plant behavior. The results indicate a weak tendency of emissions reductions among Norwegian plants in the second phase of the ETS, but not in the other phases. We find no significant effects on emissions intensity in any of the phases, but positive effects on value added and productivity in the second phase. Positive effects on value added and productivity may be due to the large amounts of free allowances, and that plants may have passed on the additional marginal costs to consumers.
    Keywords: Tradable emissions quotas; emissions intensity; productivity; propensity score matching; difference-in-differences
    JEL: C23 C54 D22 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2016–02
  19. By: Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech - AgroParisTech); Sébastien Houde (University of Maryland)
    Abstract: We investigate how moral hazard problems can cause sub-optimal investment in energy efficiency, a phenomenon known as the energy efficiency gap. We focus on contexts where both the seller and the buyer of an energy saving technology can take hidden actions. For instance, a home retrofit contractor may cut on the quality of installation to save costs, while the homeowner may increase her use of energy service when provided with higher energy efficiency. As a result, neither energy efficiency quality nor energy use are fully contractible. We formalize the double moral hazard problem and discuss how it can help rationalize the energy efficiency gap. We then compare two policy instruments: minimum quality standards and energy-savings insurance. Their relative efficiency depends on the balance between the monitoring costs associated with the former and the deadweight loss of the consumer's action induced by the latter. Calibrating the model to the U.S. retrofit industry, we find that at current market conditions, standards tend to outperform insurance. We also find that the welfare gains from undoing the double moral hazard are substantially larger than those from internalizing carbon dioxide externalities associated with underlying energy use.
    Keywords: Energy efficiency gap, moral hazard, energy-savings insurance, minimum quality standard, credence good, rebound effect.
    Date: 2015–04–30

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