nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2016‒01‒29
thirty-two papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Cross-Country Electricity Trade, Renewable Energy and European Transmission Infrastructure Policy By Jan Abrell; Sebastian Rausch
  2. Energy conservation in the residential sector : The role of policy and market forces By Aydin, Erdal
  3. Rational habits in residential electricity demand By Massimo Filippini; Bettina Hirl; Giuliano Masiero
  4. The Supply-side Effects of Energy Efficiency Labels By David Comerford; Ian Lange; Mirko Moro
  5. What Makes Rural Households Use Traditional Fuel? Empirical Evidence from India By Aditi Bhattacharyya; Daisy Das
  6. Oil Price, Overleveraging, and Shakeout in the Shale Energy Sector: Game Changers in the Oil Industry By Arkady Gevorkyan; Willi Semmler
  7. Assessment of Power Sector Reforms in Georgia: Country Report By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  8. Long-run estimates of interfuel and interfactor elasticities By Chunbo Ma; David I. Stern
  9. Renewable Energy Developments and Potential in the Greater Mekong Subregion By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  10. On the Comparative Advantage of U.S. Manufacturing: Evidence from the Shale Gas Revolution By Arezki, Rabah; Fetzer, Thiemo
  11. Self-enforcing environmental agreements and trade in fossil energy deposits By Thomas Eichner; Rüdiger Pethig
  13. Food versus energy: Crops for energy By Dar, William D.
  14. The value of air quality in Chinese cities: Evidence from labor and property market outcomes By Xuan Huang; Bruno Lanz
  15. The macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks on ASEAN-5 economies By Raghavan, Mala
  16. Business Models to Realize the Potential of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency in the Greater Mekong Subregion By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  17. Preventing environmental disasters : market based vs command and control policies By Francesco Lamperti; Mauro Napoletano; Andrea Roventini
  18. An Auction Framework to Integrate Dynamic Transmission Expansion Planning and Pay-as-bid Wind Connection Auctions By Farrell, Niall; Devine, Mel; Soroudi, Alireza
  19. On the impact of dollar movements on oil currencies By Gabriel Gomes
  20. Oil price volatility and stock returns in the G7 economies By Elena María Díaz; Juan Carlos Molero; Fernando Pérez de Gracia
  21. Comparing Emissions Mitigation Efforts across Countries - Working Paper 419 By William Pizer, Joseph Aldy, and Keigo Akimoto
  22. Establishing Cycles for Nationally Determined Mitigation Contributions or Commitments By Sara Moarif
  23. Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis By Tomas Havranek; Roman Horvath; Ayaz Zeynalov
  24. China's pursuit of environmentally sustainable development: Harnessing the new engine of technological innovation By Wei Jin; ZhongXiang Zhang
  25. Buy coal for preservation and act strategically on the fuel market By Thomas Eichner; Rüdiger Pethig
  26. 2014 Clean Energy Investments: Project Summaries By Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
  27. Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP By Francesco Ravazzolo; Philip Rothman
  28. A simple dynamic climate cooperation model with large coalitions and deep emissions cuts By Robert C. Schmidt; Eugen Kovac
  29. Negative oil price bubble is likely to burst in March - May 2016. A forecast on the basis of the law of log-periodical dynamics By Alexey Fomin; Andrey Korotayev; Julia Zinkina
  30. La spotification du marché du gaz naturel liquéfié: origine et implications By Yves Jégourel
  31. Millennium Challenge Corporation's Electricity Transmission and Distribution Line-Extension Activity in Tanzania: Qualitative Evaluation By Candace Miller; John Schurrer; Nicholas Redel; Arif Mamun; Duncan Chaplin
  32. El cambio climático y la energía en América Latina By Heres, David

  1. By: Jan Abrell (ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Sebastian Rausch (ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
    Abstract: This paper develops a multi-country multi-sector general equilibrium model, integrating high-frequency electricity dispatch and trade decisions, to study the eects of electricity transmission infrastructure (TI) expansion and re- newable energy (RE) penetration in Europe for gains from trade and carbon dioxide emissions in the power sector. TI can benet or degrade environ- mental outcomes, depending on RE penetration: it complements emissions abatement by mitigating dispatch problems associated with volatile and spa- tially dispersed RE but also promotes higher average generation from low- cost coal if RE production is too low. Against the backdrop of European decarbonization and planned TI expansion, we nd that emissions increase for current and targeted year-2020 levels of RE production and decrease for year-2030 targets. Enhanced TI yields sizeable gains from trade that de- pend positively on RE penetration, without creating large adverse impacts on regional equity.
    JEL: F18 Q28 Q43 Q48 C68
    Date: 2016–01
  2. By: Aydin, Erdal (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)
    Abstract: In recent years, energy conservation has been a hot topic of debate among policy makers and researchers due to the concerns about global climate change and energy dependency. From a policy perspective, residential sector has been an important target for energy conservation policies as it is a major contributor to the total energy consumption and has a high potential for saving energy through efficiency measures. This dissertation focuses on three main research topics that are associated to the assessment and design of residential energy conservation policies. The first chapter investigates the impact of residential energy efficiency policies on household energy consumption. The second chapter examines the magnitude of rebound effect in residential energy consumption. Finally, the last chapter investigates the capitalization of energy efficiency in the housing market and examines the impact of Energy Performance Certificates (EPC) on the capitalization rate.
    Date: 2016
  3. By: Massimo Filippini (ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Bettina Hirl (Institute of Economics, Università della Svizzera italiana); Giuliano Masiero (Institute of Economics, Università della Svizzera italiana)
    Abstract: Dynamic partial adjustment models of residential electricity demand account for the fact that households may not adjust electricity consumption immediately in response to changes in prices, income, and other relevant factors, because of behavioral habits or adjustment costs for the capital stock of appliances. However, forward-looking behavior is generally neglected. Expectations about future prices or consumption may have an impact on current decisions. In this paper we propose rational habit models for residential electricity demand and apply them to a panel of 48 US states between 1995 and 2011. We estimate lead consumption models using fixed effects, instrumental variables, and the GMM Blundell-Bond estimator. We find that expectations about future consumption significantly influence current consumption decisions, which suggests that households behave rationally when making electricity consumption decisions. This novel approach may improve our understanding of the dynamics of residential electricity demand and the evaluation of the effects of energy policies.
    Keywords: Residential electricity, Partial adjustment models, Dynamic panel data models, Rational habits
    JEL: D12 D84 D99 Q41 Q47 Q50
    Date: 2016–01
  4. By: David Comerford (Division of Economics, University of Stirling); Ian Lange (Division of Economics and Business, Colorado School of Mines); Mirko Moro (Division of Economics, University of Stirling)
    Abstract: We build on research documenting demand-side consequences of energy-efficiency labels for buildings by testing for a supply-side response. We exploit a natural experiment to test whether the introduction of mandatory energy labels for residential homes influenced investment in home energy efficiency. From 2008, vendors and lettors in the UK were required to publish a property's energy performance certificate (EPC). The EPC evaluates home energy efficiency overlaying a color-coded letter grade (from a green A to red G, respectively) on a pre-existent 0-100 point scale, the Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) score. We hypothesize that the salient color letter grades will serve as targets when home owners are deciding the scale of investment to make in home energy efficiency. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find fewer homes just below, and more homes just above, the D grade threshold in the treatment years relative to the control years. This clustering is higher for homes that were traded after the EPC requirement was in effect. We conclude that there is a supply-side response to energy-efficiency labels.
    Keywords: energy efficiency, bunching, labels, thresholds
    JEL: Q48 L15 Q58 H23
    Date: 2016–01
  5. By: Aditi Bhattacharyya (Department of Economics and International Business, Sam Houston State University); Daisy Das (North Eastern Hill University, Shillong, Meghalaya, India)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effects of different types of cooking fuels on the technical efficiency of household meal production in rural India. Rural households in India use for cooking either traditional fuels like firewood, dung, crop residue, and coal or modern fuels like liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and kerosene, or a combination of both traditional and modern fuels. Using the stochastic frontier method, this paper estimates the influence of different types of cooking fuel and other household level characteristics on the technical efficiency of household meal production. We use a representative sample of 3880 rural households from the India Human Development Survey, 2008. Our results indicate that efficiency of meal preparation is significantly higher when households use either a traditional or a combination of both traditional and modern fuels than if they use modern fuels alone. Thus, results of this paper shed light on reasons other than cost behind the overwhelming popularity of traditional fuels in spite of their adverse health and environmental effects. This result is likely to be driven by the capacity constraint imposed by LPG and kerosene burners in cooking a large quantity of food at a time. Our study identifies use of traditional fuel as a viable option for reducing energy poverty in rural India, and recommends extensive policy for supplying improved wood burning cook stoves and afforestation to reduce the harmful pollution effects of open fire. The policy makers should also emphasize on provision of biogas plant and biomass gasifier along with afforestation. Further, our study recognizes the need for developing and supplying more efficient cooking stoves for modern fuels to promote higher use of clean energy sources. Our results also suggest policy intervention in improving women’s education, household income, provision of ration card, and providing government support in acquiring improved cooking stoves for increasing efficiency of meal production at the household level.
    Keywords: Meal production; Modern fuel, Technical efficiency; Traditional fuel; Stochastic frontier analysis
    JEL: Q40 D24
    Date: 2016–01
  6. By: Arkady Gevorkyan; Willi Semmler (Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA))
    Abstract: In recent years, we have observed significant growth in unconventional energy, shale energy, in particular in the United States. There was a boom, followed by a bust. The plunge in oil price triggered a prolonged bust in the energy sector. Which firms will benefit, and which will be squeezed out due to this persistent oil price decline? A new equilibrium is about to evolve under these conditions. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model that accounts for recent features in the energy sector. In particular, we focus on the shale energy companies and illustrate a trend toward a boom in external borrowing, overleveraging, and, now, a high risk of insolvency. With the use of a new method, called nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC), we show dynamic paths toward two equilibria: either a tight oligopoly or extensive competition, with the shakeout of some firms. This is also tracked by studying leveraging and overleveraging by groups of firms. We further undertake an empirical analysis using a vector error correction model (VECM), which helps identify the short- and long-term effects of those new challenges on the stock performance of the energy companies. The main finding is that large-cap companies are less dependent on the fluctuation in oil price than are mid- and small-cap firms
    Keywords: Oil price, fracking, overleveraging, insolvency, NMPC, shale oil
    JEL: D43 Q43 Q32
    Date: 2015–09
  7. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: Reforms pursued by Georgia in recent years have made its power sector commercially viable as well as more efficient and reliable. Now unbundled and largely privatized, the former state monopoly has developed an operational wholesale market and has made great progress in making its operations and system pricing more efficient. However, it still lacks independent regulatory competence and pricing transparency, and it remains vulnerable to external supply shocks, having to balance shortfalls in domestic hydropower generation with fuel imports for its power stations and with gas imports for its thermal plants. This country report assesses the reform efforts and experiences of Georgia’s power sector for lessons and insights that other economies could find useful in their own power sector planning and policy and strategy formulation.
    Keywords: power sector, Georgia, power sector reforms, retail competition, privatization, wholesale power market, competitive power market, transmission and distribution, unbundling, power generation, tariff setting, tariff reform, power supply security, economic outcomes, social outcomes, environmental outcomes, market-based regulation, power sector planning, hydropower
    Date: 2015–06
  8. By: Chunbo Ma (School of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Western Australia); David I. Stern (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)
    Abstract: Meta-analyses of interfuel and capital-energy elasticities of substitution show that elasticity estimates are dependent on the type of data – time series, panel, or cross-section – and the estimators used. Econometric theory suggests that the between estimator might generate the best estimates of long-run elasticities but no existing estimates of elasticities of substitution have used it. Alternatively, Chirinko et al. argued in favor of estimating long-run elasticities of substitution using a long-run difference estimator. We provide estimates of China’s interfuel and interfactor elasticities of substitution using the between and long-run difference estimators. To address potential omitted variables bias, we add province level inefficiency and national technological change terms to our regression model. The results show that demand for coal and electricity in China is very inelastic, while demand for diesel and gasoline is elastic. With the exception of gasoline and diesel, there are limited substitution possibilities among the fuels. Substitution possibilities are greater between energy and labor than between energy and capital. The results are quite different to some previous studies for China but coincide well with the patterns found in meta-analyses for long-run estimates of elasticities of substitution.
    Keywords: energy; substitution; elasticity; demand; China
    JEL: D24 Q40
    Date: 2016–01
  9. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: This report was produced under the technical assistance project Promoting Renewable Energy, Clean Fuels, and Energy Efficiency in the Greater Mekong Subregion (TA 7679). It focused on renewable energy developments and potential in five countries in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS): Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Thailand, and Viet Nam. It assessed the potential of solar, wind, biomass, and biogas as sources of renewable energy. Technical considerations include the degree and intensity of solar irradiation, average wind speeds, backup capacity of grid systems, availability and quality of agricultural land for biofuel crops, and animal manure concentrations for biogas digester systems. Most GMS governments have established plans for reaching these targets and have implemented policy, regulatory, and program measures to boost solar, wind, biomass, and biogas forms of renewable energy. Incentives for private sector investment in renewable energy are increasingly emphasized.
    Keywords: renewable energy developments in the gms, renewable energy, environment sustainability, greater mekong subregion (gms), asian development bank, cambodia, lao pdr, myanmar, thailand, viet nam, solar energy potential, wind energy potential, biogas energy potential, clean fuel, biofuel, biogas, food-energy-water nexus, renewable energy regulatory, biomass energy resources, cambodia ministry of mines and energy, lao pdr ministry of energy and mines, myanmar ministry of energy, thailand department of alternative energy development and efficiency, electricity regulatory authority of viet nam, lahmeyer internationa gmbh, climate change, photovoltaic, bio-digester, energy sector institutional framework, renewable energy targets
    Date: 2015–07
  10. By: Arezki, Rabah (International Monetary Fund); Fetzer, Thiemo (Department of Economics, University of Warwick)
    Abstract: This paper provides the first empirical evidence of the newly found comparative advantage of the United States manufacturing sector following the so-called shale gas revolution. The revolution has led to (very) large and persistent differences in the price of natural gas between the United States and the rest of the world owing to the physics of natural gas. Results show that U.S. manufacturing exports have grown by about 6 percent on account of their energy intensity since the onset of the shale revolution. We also document that the U.S. shale revolution is operating both at the intensive and extensive margins.
    JEL: Q33 O13 N52 R11
    Date: 2016
  11. By: Thomas Eichner; Rüdiger Pethig
    Keywords: climate coalition, deposit, fuel, Nash, self-enforcing IEA
    JEL: C72 Q38 Q58
    Date: 2015
  12. By: Jorge Barrientos Marín (Universidad de Antioquia); Mónica Toro Martínez (Universidad de Antioquia)
    Abstract: in this paper we are interested in investigating the market fundamentals that influences energy prices formation in Colombia and evaluating the impact of the some market variables on the behavior of energy price by estimating the impulse-response function. To this end we estimate VAR specification. In addition, we carried out an exploratory analysis for forecasting the future energy prices in the next 10 years. Our main conclusion is that the set of variables which most affects the evolution of the energy prices is the hydrology and the declared availability. About the forecasting, we found that the energy prices going to increase for the next years with a kind of fall around 2018 just for recovery ahead.
    Keywords: Spot market, electricity prices, VAR, forecasting, impulse response function
    JEL: C22 C53 D43 L94 Q47
    Date: 2016
  13. By: Dar, William D.
    Abstract: The global production and use of biofuels have increased dramatically in the past few years due to volatile and increasing oil prices, and environmental concerns. The main feedstocks for ethanol are sugarcane, maize and, to a lesser extent, wheat, sugarbeet and cassava. Biodiesel oil-producing crops include rapeseed and oil palm. All divert land away from food production to energy production. This has in turn triggered the food versus energy debate, with several studies attributing the rising food prices to the feedstock diversion to biofuels, hurting poor consumers and net food-importing countries. To overcome the food– fuel trade-off several countries are promoting feedstocks that can grow on marginal lands and hence do not compete with food production. At ICRISAT we launched a global pro-poor ‘BioPower Initiative’ focusing on biomass sources and approaches that do not compete with, but rather enhance food and nutritional security. Sweet sorghum is one such ‘smart’ multipurpose crop that does not compromise on food security while producing energy. The grain is used for food and the stalk is used for juice extraction for bioethanol. It is encouraging that the Western Australian Government in partnership with Kimberley Agricultural Investments has plans to grow sweet sorghum on 13,400 hectares of land for processing into bioethanol. Further, the use of sweet sorghum in existing sugar mills as biofuel feedstock provides a win–win situation for both farmers and industry. Data from India, the Philippines, China and Brazil indicate that sweet sorghum is an economically viable, socially equitable, environmentally sustainable and resilient smart crop.
    Keywords: Crop Production/Industries, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,
    Date: 2014–08
  14. By: Xuan Huang; Bruno Lanz
    Abstract: Using a dual-market sorting model of workers' location decisions, this paper studies the capitalization of air pollution in wages and property prices across Chinese cities. We exploit quasi-experimental variations in particulate matter (PM10) concentration induced by a policy subsidizing coal-based winter heating in northern China, specifying a regression discontinuity design based on cities' location relative to the policy boundary. We estimate that the elasticity of wages and house prices with respect to PM10 concentration is 0.41 and -0.71 respectively. Our results are robust to the use of an alternative source of exogenous variation in PM10 concentration (sandstorms), supporting the view that the local effect we measure provides policy-relevant information on the value of air quality improvements in China.
    Keywords: Hedonic model; Air pollution; Labor market; Housing prices; Local public goods.
    JEL: H41 J31 R31 Q53
    Date: 2015–11–16
  15. By: Raghavan, Mala (Tasmanian School of Business & Economics, University of Tasmania)
    Abstract: ASEAN-5’s continued economic growth with high oil and trade intensities means it is a fast growing region with a significant presence in the global energy market. This paper identifies three main drivers of oil price shocks - oil-supply, globalactivity and oil-specific demand shocks for the period 2000-2013. Subsequently, it assesses the effects of the identified oil shocks on the ASEAN-5’s macroeconomic variables and examines the responses of monetary policy. Since the recent shocks are largely demand driven, the impulse responses and historical decomposition for the ASEAN-5 highlight that the effects on inflation are accentuated while the effects on economic growth are less disruptive. The exchange rate responses are mostly positive while the effects on trade are positive for Malaysia, a net oil exporter and are moderately negative for the oil importers. Consequently the ASEAN-5’s central banks could tighten their monetary policy in response to higher inflation without fear of weakening their economies. The empirical results highlight that for monetary policy responses to be more supportive of growth, policy makers in these economies should examine the underlying causes of the future oil shocks.
    Keywords: Macroeconomics, Oil prices, Emerging Asia, Monetary Policy
    JEL: C32 E51 F32 F43 F41 E52
    Date: 2015–10–19
  16. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: This report was produced under the technical assistance project Promoting Renewable Energy, Clean Fuels, and Energy Efficiency in the Greater Mekong Subregion (TA 7679). It provides outlines of business models relevant to pursuing the renewable energy and energy efficiency targets adopted by the five Greater Mekong Subregion countries: Cambodia, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar, Thailand, and Viet Nam. Business models for investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency provide policy makers and investors with alternative business methods for the deployment of new technologies, or for the application of well-established technologies and practices in new settings.
    Keywords: energy efficiency, business models, renewable energy, gms, asian development bank, cambodia, lao pdr, myanmar, thailand, viet nam, lahmeyer internationa gmbh, cambodia ministry of mines and energy, lao pdr ministry of energy and mines, myanmar ministry of energy, thailand department of alternative energy development and efficiency, electricity regulatory authority of viet nam, climate change, public-private partnership, ownership business models, multiparty ownership, lease or hire purchase model, dealer credit business model, user cooperative business model, energy performance contracting, decentralized systems, centralized grid-scale systems, build-own-operate-transfer, energy service company, community biogas
    Date: 2015–07
  17. By: Francesco Lamperti (Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna); Mauro Napoletano (OFCE Sciences Po and Skema Businnes School); Andrea Roventini (Institute of Economics, Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna)
    Abstract: The aper compares the e?ects of market-based and command-and-control climate policies on the direction of technical change and the prevention of environmental disasters. Drawing on the model proposed in Acemoglu et al. (2012, American Economic Review), we show that market-based policies (carbon taxes and subsidies towards clean sectors) exhibit bounded win- dow of opportunities: delays in their implementation make them completely ine?ective both in redirecting technical change and in avoiding environmental catastrophes. On the contrary, we ?nd that command-and-control interventions guarantee policy e?ectiveness irrespectively on the timing of their introduction. As command-and-control policies are always able to direct technical change toward "green" technologies and to prevent climate disasters, they constitute a valuable alternative to market-based interventions
    Keywords: Environmental Policy, Command and Control, Carbon Taxes, Disasters
    JEL: O33 O44 Q30 Q54 Q56 Q58
    Date: 2015–12
  18. By: Farrell, Niall; Devine, Mel; Soroudi, Alireza
    Abstract: Efficient renewables deployment requires the minimisation of both internal generation costs and external transmission expansion planning (TEP) costs. Competitive payas-bid connection auctions allow wind energy generators to reveal their costs of generation such that internal generation costs may be minimised. TEP costs have not been incorporated into such auctions to date. Integrating these procedures may allow for a global minimisation of internal generation and external TEP costs over many time periods. This paper develops an auction mechanism and associated modelling framework to carry this out. The contributions of this framework are verified using a numerical example. Our results show that ignoring generation costs in transmission expansion planning has quantifiable economic consequences, while traditional pay-as-bid auctions can benefit from incorporating features associated with TEP, such as multi-period optimisation. Full integration of both modelling frameworks leads to efficiency improvements, both in terms of reduced investor rentseeking and a more efficient deployment path.
    Date: 2016–01
  19. By: Gabriel Gomes
    Abstract: This paper investigates to which extent dollar real exchange rate movements have a nonlinear impact on the short term dynamics of the real exchange rate of oil exporting economies. Estimating a panel cointegrating model for 11 OPEC and 5 major oil exporting countries over the 1980-2014 period, we find evidence to support their currencies can be considered as oil price driven. In fact, on the long run a 10% increase in the price of oil leads to a 2.1% appreciation of their real exchange rate. To analyse how dollar movements interact with the real exchange rate of those countries in the short run, we then estimate a panel smooth transition regression model. Results show that the real exchange rate of oil exporting economies is influenced by oil price fluctuations only if the dollar appreciation is lower than 2.6%. After the dollar appreciates beyond this threshold, their currencies are rather affected by other variables.
    Keywords: Oil price, Oil currencies, Oil exporting, Non-linearities.
    JEL: C33 F31 Q43
    Date: 2016
  20. By: Elena María Díaz (University of Navarra); Juan Carlos Molero (University of Navarra); Fernando Pérez de Gracia (University of Navarra)
    Abstract: This study examines the relationship between oil price volatility and stock returns in the G7 economies (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US) using monthly data for the period 1970 to 2014. In order to measure oil volatility we consider alternative specifications for oil prices (world, nominal and real prices). We estimate a vector autoregressive model with the following variables: interest rates, economic activity, stock returns and oil price volatility taking into account the structural break in the year 1986. We find a negative response of G7 stock markets to an increase in oil price volatility. Results also indicate that world oil price volatility is generally more significant for stock markets than the national oil price volatility.
    Keywords: stock returns, oil price volatility, G7 economies, Vector autoregressive (VAR) model
    JEL: C40 G12 Q43
    Date: 2016–01–11
  21. By: William Pizer, Joseph Aldy, and Keigo Akimoto
    Abstract: A natural outcome of the emerging pledge and review approach to international climate change policy is the interest in comparing mitigation efforts among countries. Domestic publics and stakeholders will have an interest in knowing if “comparable” or “peer” countries are undertaking (or planning to undertake) “comparable” effort in mitigating their greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, if the aggregate effort is considered inadequate in addressing the risks posed by climate change, then this will likely prompt interest in identifying opportunities for greater effort by individual countries – an assessment that requires metrics of effort and comparisons among countries. We propose a framework for comparing mitigation effort, drawing from a set of principles for designing and implementing informative metrics. We present a template for organizing metrics on mitigation effort, for both ex ante and ex post review of effort. We also provide preliminary assessments of effort along emissions, price, and cost metrics for post-2020 climate policy contributions by China, the European Union, and the United States. We close with a discussion of the role of academics and civil society in promoting transparency and facilitating the evaluation and comparison of effort.
    Keywords: climate change, emissions mitigation, climate pledges, evaluation, climate change policy.
    JEL: Q54 Q3 Q52
    Date: 2015–11
  22. By: Sara Moarif
    Abstract: Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are currently negotiating a climate change agreement scheduled for adoption at the 21st Conference of the Parties in December 2015. At the centre of the new agreement are nationally determined contributions (NDCs). These are the objectives and actions relating to mitigation or other aspects of climate change responses that countries are willing to put forward internationally and be bound by in some way. This paper seeks to clarify and discuss ideas contained in the draft agreement and draft decision text for the 2015 agreement that may serve to enhance the dynamism and ambition of nationally determined mitigation contributions or commitments (NDMCs). Provisions for ambition and dynamism are included in the procedures framing NDMCs, namely common, regular communications and the requirement that NDMCs become more ambitious over time. Several multilateral processes are also proposed, which might influence the ambition of NDMCs in terms of their content and implementation. The paper discusses proposals for a clarification exercise, a regular global stocktake, and individual assessment and review processes contained with the transparency system and a potential facilitative compliance and implementation system. There are implementation challenges associated with all proposals, though overall these could encourage countries to maximise effort, and provide an opportunity for countries to revise and update their contributions and commitments at regular intervals. Établissement de cycles pour les contributions ou les engagements en matière d'atténuation déterminées au niveau national Les Parties à la Convention-cadre des Nations Unies sur les changements climatiques (CCNUCC) négocient actuellement un accord climatique qui devrait être adopté à la 21e Conférence des Parties en décembre 2015. Au centre de ce nouvel accord figurent les contributions déterminées au niveau national (CDN). Il s’agit des objectifs et mesures ayant trait à l’atténuation ou d’autres aspects des actions que les pays sont disposés à proposer au niveau international pour faire face au changement climatique, et pour lesquels ils sont prêts à prendre une forme d’engagement. Ce document vise à clarifier et examiner les idées contenues dans le projet d’accord et le texte du projet de décision concernant l’accord de 2015, qui pourraient servir à renforcer le dynamisme et l’ambition des contributions ou engagements en matière d’atténuation déterminés au niveau national. Des dispositions relatives au niveau et au rythme des efforts sont inscrites dans les procédures encadrant l’établissement de ces contributions ou engagements, à savoir des communications régulièrement présentées par toutes les Parties, et l’obligation de relever progressivement le niveau d’ambition des contributions. Plusieurs processus multilatéraux sont aussi proposés, qui pourraient influer sur le degré d’ambition des contributions ou engagements en matière d’atténuation, en termes de contenu et de mise en oeuvre. Ce document examine diverses propositions : un exercice de clarification, un bilan régulier à l’échelle mondiale, et des processus d’évaluation et de révision individuels liés au cadre de transparence et à un mécanisme potentiel de facilitation du respect et de la mise en oeuvre. Si des difficultés de mise en oeuvre sont associées à toutes ces propositions, dans l’ensemble, celles-ci pourraient inciter les pays à pousser leurs efforts au maximum, et leur offrir l’occasion de réviser et d’actualiser leurs contributions et engagements à intervalles réguliers.
    Keywords: climate change, mitigation, UNFCCC, 2015 agreement, greenhouse gas
    JEL: F53 H87 Q54 Q56 Q58
    Date: 2015–11
  23. By: Tomas Havranek (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic; Czech National Bank); Roman Horvath (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic); Ayaz Zeynalov (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic)
    Abstract: An important question in development studies is how abundance of natural resources affects long-term economic growth. No consensus answer, however, has yet emerged, with approximately 40% of empirical papers finding a negative effect, 40% finding no effect, and 20% finding a positive effect. Does the literature taken together imply the existence of the so-called natural resource curse? In a quantitative survey of 402 estimates reported in 33 studies, we find that overall support for the resource curse hypothesis is weak when potential publication bias and method heterogeneity are taken into account. Our results also suggest that three aspects of study design are especially effective in explaining the differences in results across studies: 1) including an interaction between natural resources and institutional quality, 2) controlling for the level of investment activity, and 3) distinguishing between different types of natural resources.
    Keywords: Natural resources, economic growth, institutions, publi- cation selection bias, meta-analysis
    JEL: Q30 O13 C51
    Date: 2016–01
  24. By: Wei Jin (School of Public Policy and Management, Zheijang University); ZhongXiang Zhang (College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University)
    Abstract: Whether China continues its business-as-usual investment-driven, environment-polluting growth pattern or adopts an investment and innovation-driven, environmentally sustainable development holds important implications for both national and global environmental governance. Building on a Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans growth model that features endogenous technological change induced by R&D and knowledge stock accumulation, this paper presents an exposition, both analytically and numerically, of the mechanism underlining China’s economic transition from an investment-driven, pollution-intensive to an investment and innovation-driven, environmentally sustainable growth path. We show that if R&D technological innovation is incorporated into China’s growth mechanism, then at some tipping point in time when marginal welfare gain of R&D for knowledge accumulation becomes equalized with that of investment for physical asset deployment, China’s economy will launch capital investment and R&D simultaneously and make a transition to a sustainable growth path along which consumption, capital investment, and R&D have a balanced share of 5: 4: 1, consumption, capital stock, and knowledge stock all grow at a rate of 4.9%, and environmental quality improves at a rate of 2.5%. In contrast, if R&D technological innovation is not harnessed as a new growth engine, then China’s economy will follow its business-as-usual investment-driven growth path along which standalone accumulation of dirty physical capital stock will lead to a more than 200-fold increase in environmental pollution.
    Keywords: endogenous technological change; sustainable development; economic growth model; China’s economic transition
    JEL: Q55 Q58 Q43 Q48 O13 O31 O33 O44 F18
    Date: 2016–01
  25. By: Thomas Eichner; Rüdiger Pethig
    Keywords: climate coalition, fossil fuel, deposits, extraction, fuel caps
    JEL: Q31 Q38 Q55
    Date: 2015
  26. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB) (Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, ADB); Asian Development Bank (ADB)
    Abstract: This report summarizes the investments in clean energy made by the operations departments of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in 2014, condensing information from project databases and formal reports in an easy-to-reference format. This report was prepared by ADB’s Clean Energy Program which provides the cohesive agenda that encompasses and guides ADB’s lending and nonlending assistance, initiatives, and plan of action for sustainable growth in Asia and the Pacific.
    Keywords: energy, clean energy, renewable energy, energy efficiency, solar, wind, clean energy program, investments, loans, grants, technical assistance, 2014
    Date: 2015–06
  27. By: Francesco Ravazzolo; Philip Rothman
    Abstract: We carry out a pseudo out-of-sample density forecasting study for U.S. GDP with an autoregressive benchmark and alternatives to the benchmark than include both oil prices and stochastic volatility. The alternatives to the benchmark produce superior density forecasts. This comparative density performance appears to be driven more by stochastic volatility than by oil prices. We use our density forecasts to compute a recession risk indicator around the Great Recession. The alternative model that includes the real price of oil generates the earliest strong signal of a recession; but it also shows increased recession risk after the Great Recession.
    Date: 2015–10
  28. By: Robert C. Schmidt (Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin); Eugen Kovac (University of Duisburg-Essen)
    Abstract: A standard result from the game theoretic literature on international environmental agreements is that coalitions are either 'broad but shallow' or 'narrow but deep'. Hence, the stable coalition size is small when the potential welfare gains are large. We modify a standard climate coalition game by adding a – seemingly – small but realistic feature: we allow countries to delay climate negotiations until the next 'round' if a coalition forms but decides to remain inactive. It turns out that results are surprisingly different under this modication. In particular, a large coalition with deep emissions cuts forms if countries are sufficiently patient. Our results also indicate that countries should try hard to overcome coordination problems in the formation of a coalition. A more cooperative outcome may then be reached, and it may be reached more quickly.
    Date: 2015–10–26
  29. By: Alexey Fomin; Andrey Korotayev; Julia Zinkina
    Abstract: Data analysis with log-periodical parametrization of the Brent oil price dynamics has allowed to estimate (very approximately) the date when the dashing collapse of the Brent oil price will achieve the absolute minimum level (corresponding to the so-called singularity point), after which there will occur a rather rapid rebound, whereas the accelerating fall of the oil prices which started in mid-2014 will come to an end. This is likely to happen in the period between March, 24th and May, 15th, 2016. An analogous estimate (though a more exact one) was made for the date of the burst of the nearest negative "sub-bubble", which is likely to occur between 19.01 and 02.02.2016 (importantly, this estimate will allow to verify the robustness of the developed forecast in the very nearest days). However, this will not mean a start of a new uninterrupted global growth - the fall will soon continue, breaking new "anti-records". The fall will only finally stop after passing the abovementioned point of the main negative bubble singularity somewhere between March 24th and May 15th, 2016 (if, of course, the oil market remains at the disposal of speculators, and no massive interventions of macro actors are made). Importantly, our calculations have also shown that after mid-2014 we are dealing not with an antibubble (when price collapse goes on in a damped and almost unstoppable regime) in the world oil market, but with a negative bubble, when prices collapse in an accelerated mode, and there can be particularly powerful collapses with particularly strong destabilizing effect near the singularity point. On the other hand, negative bubbles can be better manipulated by the actions of the macro actors.
    Date: 2016–01
  30. By: Yves Jégourel
    Abstract: En raison de la distance géographique existante entre les zones principales de consommation et de production et de l’existence consécutive de coûts logistiques importants, le marché du gaz naturel liquéfié (GNL) s’est historiquement structuré autour de contrats d’approvisionnement de long terme indexés sur les prix pétroliers. Avec le développement récent des gaz de schiste et une croissance européenne atone, l’excès d’offre de GNL favorise désormais le développement des marchés spot, notamment en Asie, par nature plus flexibles et déconnectés des prix pétroliers. Dans cette optique, il n’est pas impossible que la filière du GNL se financiarise à plus ou moins long terme.
    Keywords: matières premières, contrats, énergies, gaz naturel, financiarisation, spéculation, volatilité,futures, échanges, spot
    Date: 2016–01
  31. By: Candace Miller; John Schurrer; Nicholas Redel; Arif Mamun; Duncan Chaplin
    Abstract: This report presents our qualitative evaluation findings on the implementation of the T&D activity and the FS initiative, and the outcomes of electrification as perceived by households, businesses, and other community institutions.
    Keywords: Energy, electrification, performance evaluation, qualitative evaluation, case study
    JEL: F Z
    Date: 2015–07–22
  32. By: Heres, David (Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) United Nations)
    Abstract: En el presente estudio se analizan los principales resultados encontrados en la literatura concerniente al mercado de la energía y su relación con el cambio climático en Latinoamérica, buscando definir diferentes tópicos relacionados al tema y clasificar la literatura disponible. Para tal fin, el trabajo hace referencia a los principales determinantes de la oferta y la demanda de energía encontrados en la literatura para América Latina y el Caribe, explora las trayectorias posibles de la oferta y la demandade energía con referencia al cambio climático descritas por la literatura, y describe los principales mecanismos o instrumentos de política aplicadas relacionadas con la producción y el consumo de energía y cambio climático en la región.
    Date: 2015–12

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