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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Eoin Ó Broin (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS, Chalmers University of Technology [Gothenburg]); Jonas Nässén (Chalmers University of Technology [Gothenburg]); Filip Johnsson (Chalmers University of Technology [Gothenburg]) |
| Abstract: | We present an empirical analysis of the more than 250 space heating-focused energy efficiency policies that have been in force at the EU and national levels in the period 1990–2010. This analysis looks at the EU-14 residential sector (Pre-2004 EU-15, excluding Luxembourg) using a panel data regression analysis on unit consumption of energy for space heating (kWh/m2/year). The policies are represented as a regression variable using a semi-quantitative impact estimation obtained from the MURE Policy Database. The impacts of the policies as a whole, and subdivided into financial, regulatory, and informative policies, are examined. The correlation between the actual reductions in demand and the estimated impact of regulatory policies is found to be stronger than the corresponding correlations with the respective impacts of financial policies and informative polices. Together with the well-known market barriers to energy efficiency that exist in the residential sector, these findings suggest that regulatory policy measures be given a high priority in the design of an effective pathway towards the EU-wide goals for space heating energy. |
| Keywords: | Residential, Econometrics, Efficiency, Policy, Space heat, Regulations |
| Date: | 2014–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-01205485&r=all |
| By: | Bianca Peters (School of Economics, University of Adelaide); Stephanie F. McWhinnie (School of Economics, University of Adelaide) |
| Abstract: | Reducing dependence on fossil fuels by decreasing energy consumption is a common environmental policy. One mechanism used to achieve this is to encourage increased energy efficiency. However, improving efficiency may have an opposing effect and cause an increase in energy consumption if the intensity of use changes. This phenomenon is known as the rebound effect. We estimate direct rebound effects for energy use in Australia based on household expenditure data. Our approach implements a new methodology developed by Hunt and Ryan (2014, 2015) that explicitly relates energy service use with energy source demand and directly incorporates efficiency. The results indicate that the rebound effect is high for electricity and gas use by Australian households. Due to the unique nature of our dataset, we can examine the influence of income and household composition on the rebound effect. We find that low-income households and households with young children have the largest rebound effects for electricity. The largest rebound effects for gas are estimated for households with young children and older persons. The relatively large rebound effects found here suggest that consumers gain from efficiency by improved energy services, thus policy targeting energy efficiency is not likely to be successful at reducing energy consumption. |
| Keywords: | Energy; Rebound Effect; Own-price Elasticity |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adl:wpaper:2015-18&r=all |
| By: | Andor, Mark Andreas; Frondel, Manuel; Sendler, Sophie |
| Abstract: | Auf Basis der Erhebungen zum Energieverbrauch der privaten Haushalte von RWI und forsa analysieren wir für mehrere hundert Haushalte, die über eine Photovoltaik-Anlage verfügen, die Renditen der Investitionen in PV-Anlagen. Unsere Ergebnisse verdeutlichen, dass diese Renditen mitunter sehr lukrativ waren, besonders bei Installation in den Jahren 2009 bis 2011, in denen hohe Vergütungssätze für Solarstrom mit stark gesunkenen Anlagekosten einhergingen. Unsere Sensitivitätsanalysen zeigen allerdings auch die nicht unerheblichen Risiken auf, die mit derartigen Investitionen verbunden sind. Zudem sind es tendenziell eher die wohlhabenderen Haushalte, die derartige Investitionen tätigen. Finanziert werden die damit erzielten Renditen von der großen Masse der übrigen Stromverbraucher über die EEG-Umlage, nicht zuletzt auch von den armutsgefährdeten Haushalten. Angesichts dieser Umverteilung finanzieller Ressourcen stellt sich bei der Förderung des Ausbaus der Erneuerbaren in Deutschland mit Hilfe des Erneuerbaren-Energien-Gesetzes (EEG) die Frage nach einer gerechten Lastenverteilung. |
| Keywords: | Solarstrom,Verteilungsgerechtigkeit,Subventionen |
| JEL: | Q28 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwimat:94&r=all |
| By: | Ruhnau, Oliver (RWTH Aachen University); Hennig, Patrick (Grundgrün Energie GmbH); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | Forecasts are usually evaluated in terms of accuracy. With regard to application, the question arises if the most accurate forecast is also optimal in terms of forecast related costs and risks. Combining insights from research and practice, we show that this is indeed not necessarily the case. Our analysis is grounded in the dynamic field of short-term forecasting of solar electricity feed-in. A clear sky model is implemented and combined with a linear model, an autoregressive model, and an artificial neural network. These models are applied to a portfolio of ten large-scale photovoltaic systems in Germany. We compare the different models in order to quantify the connection between errors and costs. We find that apart from accuracy, correlation with market prices is an important characteristic of forecasts when economic implications are considered as important. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting evaluation; renewable energy; electricity markets; balancing costs; artificial neural networks; clear sky model; Germany |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2015_006&r=all |
| By: | Lisa MH Hall; Alastair Buckley; Jose Mawyin |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the impact of wind generation on market prices and system costs in the UK between 2013 and 2014. The wider effects and implications of wind generation is of direct relevance and importance to policy makers, as well as the system operator and market traders. We compare electricity generation from Coal, Gas and wind, on both the wholesale and imbalance market. We calculate the system cost of wind generation (government subsidies and curtailment costs) and the total energy costs. For the first time in the UK, we calculate the Merit Order Effect on spot price due to the wind component and show a 1.32\% price decrease for every percentage point of wind generation (compared to the "zero-wind" price). The net result of total costs and price savings is roughly zero (slight positive gain). |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1510.05854&r=all |
| By: | Astrid Cullmann; Maria Nieswand |
| Abstract: | We analyze the effects of an incentive based regulatory scheme with revenue caps on the investment behaviors and decisions of 109 electricity distribution companies operating in Germany in 2006-2012. We hypothesize that Germany's implementation of incentive regulation in 2009 has a negative impact on total investment, and that firms increase their investments in the base year. We build a model that controls for both firm-specific heterogeneity and ownership structure and test it with the German data. The results show that investments increase after incentive regulation, and that the institutional constraints used to determine the revenue caps influence the distribution companies' investment decisions. We also note that the investments increase in the base year when the rate base is determined for the following regulatory period. We conclude that a comprehensive assessment of Germany's electricity distribution companies' investment decisions and behaviors should account for firm specific heterogeneity. It should further include all institutional aspects of incentive regulation to design incentives that will foster investments in the region's energy networks. |
| Keywords: | Incentive Regulation, Electricity Distribution, Investments, Germany |
| JEL: | L94 L51 L98 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1512&r=all |
| By: | Julien Brunet (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - Polytechnique - X - CNRS); Alena Kotelnikova (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - Polytechnique - X - CNRS); Jean-Pierre Ponssard (CNRS, Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - Polytechnique - X - CNRS) |
| Abstract: | In Europe the transport sector contributes about 25% of total GHG emissions, 75% of which come from road transport. Contrarily to industrial emissions road emissions have increased over the period 1990-2015 in OECD countries: California (+26%), Germany (0%), France (+12%), Japan (+2%), Denmark (+30%). The number of registered vehicles on road in these countries amounts respectively to: California (33 million), Germany (61.5 million), France (38 million), Japan (77 million), Denmark (4 million). Even if these numbers are not expected to grow in the future this calls for major programs to reduce the corresponding GHG emissions in order to achieve the global GHG targets for 2050. The benefits from these programs will spread out to non OECD countries in which road emissions are bound to increase. Programs to promote zero emissions vehicles (ZEV) effectively started in the 2000’s through public private partnerships involving government agencies, manufacturers, utilities and fuel companies. These partnerships provided subsidies for R&D, pilot programs and infrastructure. Moreover, technical norms for emissions, global requirements for the portfolio of sales for manufacturers, rebates on the purchasing price for customers as well as various perks (driving bus lanes, free parking, etc.) are now in place. These multiple policy instruments constitute powerful incentives to orient the strategies of manufacturers and to stimulate the demand for ZEV. The carbon tax on the distribution of fossil fuels, whenever it exists, remains low and, at this stage, cannot be considered as an important driving force. The cases studies reveal important differences for the deployment of battery electric vehicle (BEV) versus fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV). BEV is leading the game with a cheaper infrastructure investment cost and a lower cost for vehicle. The relatively low autonomy makes BEV mostly suited for urban use, which is a large segment of the road market. The current level of BEV vehicles on roads starts to be significant with California (70,000), Germany (25,000), France (31,000), Japan (608,000) Denmark (3,000), but they remain very low relative to the targets for 2020: California (1.5 million), Germany (1 million), France (2 million), Japan (0.8-1.1 million for ZEV new registrations), Denmark (0.25 million). The developments and efficiency gains in battery technology along with subsidies for battery charging public stations are expected to facilitate the achievement of the growth. The relative rates of equipment (number of publicly available stations / number of BEV) provide indirect evidence on the effort made in the different countries: California (3%), Germany (12%), France (28%), Japan (11%), and Denmark (61%). In some countries public procurement plays a significant role. In France Autolib (publicly available cars in towns) represents a large share of the overall BEV deployment (12%), and the government recently announced a 50% target for low emissions in all public vehicles new equipment. FCEV is still in an early deployment stage due to a higher infrastructure investment cost and a higher cost for vehicle. The relatively high autonomy combined with speed refueling make FCEV mostly suited for long distance and interurban usage. At present there are only a very limited numbers of HRS deployed: California (28), Germany (15), France (6), Japan (31), Japan (7), Denmark (7), and only a few units of H2 vehicles on road: California (300), Germany (125), France (60), Japan (7), Denmark (21). However, a detailed analysis of the current road maps suggests that FCEV has a large potential. Targets for the 2025-2030 horizons are significant in particular in Germany (4% in 2030), Denmark (4.5% in 2025) and Japan (15-20% for ZEV new registrations in 2020). The California ARB has recently redefined its program (subsidies and mandates) to provide higher incentives for FCEV. France appears to focus on specialized regional submarkets to promote FCEV (such as the use of H2 range extending light utility vehicles). The financing of the H2 infrastructure appears as a bottleneck for FCEV deployment. Roadmaps address this issue through progressive geographical expansion (clusters) and a high level of public subsidies hydrogen refueling station (HRS) in particular in all countries except France. At this stage of BEV and FCEV do not appear as direct competitors; they address distinct market segments. Unexpected delays in the development of infrastructure in FCEV, possible breakthroughs in battery technology, and the promotion of national champions may change the nature of this competition, making it more intense in the future. |
| Keywords: | transports |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01212353&r=all |
| By: | Duncam Chaplin; Arif Mamun; Candace Miller; Ali Protik; John Schurrer |
| Abstract: | This report describes Mathematica’s plans to evaluate four components of the energy sector project in Tanzania funded by the Millennium Challenge Corporation. These components include building of new electricity lines, providing low-cost connections to those lines, installing a new cable to help the island of Zanzibar get electricity, and providing increased access to solar power in the Kigoma region of Tanzania. |
| Keywords: | Energy, electrification, solar power, impact evaluation, performance evaluation, random assignment |
| JEL: | F Z |
| Date: | 2015–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:6b783d2d2d4b4342a9bcc6bfc624e2ea&r=all |
| By: | Roger Fouquet |
| Abstract: | This paper sought to draw lessons from long run trends in energy markets for energy and climate policy. An important lesson is that consumer responses to energy markets change with economic development. In particular, evidence suggests that income elasticities of demand for energy services have tended to follow an inverse-U shape curve. Thus, at low levels of economic development, energy service consumption tends to be quite responsive to per capita income changes; at mid-levels, consumption tends to be very responsive to changes in income per capita; and, at high levels, consumption is less responsive to income changes. The paper also highlights the risks to developing countries of locking-in to carbon intensive infrastructure or behaviours. Without guidance and incentives, rapid economic development is likely to lock consumers into high energy service prices in the long run and bind the economy onto a high energy intensity trajectory with major long run economic and environmental impacts. Thus, effective energy service policies in periods of rapid development, such as in China and India at present, are crucial for the long run prosperity of the economy. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp209&r=all |
| By: | Andrea Bastianin; Marzio Galeotti; Matteo Manera |
| Abstract: | The security of energy supply is a key geopolitical factor in the relationship between the European Union and the southern neighborhood countries of the Middle East and North Africa region. We study the response of eight Mediterranean economies to exogenous oil supply shocks. We focus on the effects on economic activity - as measured by real Gross Value Added - for the whole economy, as well as for selected industries. We show that there are clear patterns characterizing the response of different economies to an unexpected reduction in global oil production. The main determinants of these patterns are the degree of energy intensity and energy dependence of the country, as well as the composition of its Gross Value Added. |
| Keywords: | Oil supply shocks, Mediterranean, Growth. |
| JEL: | C22 E32 Q41 Q43 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bcu:iefewp:iefewp82&r=all |
| By: | Nikolaos Antonakakis (University of Portsmouth, Webster Vienna Private University and Johannes Kepler University); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); John W. Muteba Mwamba (Department of Economics and Econometrics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park, 2006, South Africa) |
| Abstract: | In this study we examine the dynamic comovements between housing and oil market returns in the US over the period 1859-2013, while controlling for real GDP growth, in flation and interest rate that are known to affect both these markets. As such, we provide a bird's-eye view on the interdependencies between these two markets from a historical perspective. The results of our empirical analysis reveal that comovements between housing and oil market returns are consistently negative over time, apart from several US recessions the US economy experienced in the 19th century, wherein correlations are positive. |
| Keywords: | Housing market, oil market, dynamic comovements |
| JEL: | C32 E60 E66 G10 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201579&r=all |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Allegret; Cécile Couharde; Valérie Mignon; Tovonony Razafindrabe |
| Abstract: | While the oil currency property is clearly established from a theoretical viewpoint, its existence is less clear-cut in the empirical literature. We investigate the reasons for this apparent puzzle by studying the time-varying nature of the relationship between real effective exchange rates of five oil exporters and the real oil price in the aftermath of the oil price shocks of the last two decades. Accordingly, we rely on a time-varying parameter VAR specification which allows the responses of real exchange rates to different oil price shocks to evolve over time. We find that the reason of the mixed results obtained in the empirical literature is that oil currencies follow different hybrid models in the sense that oil countries’ real exchange rates may be driven by one or several sources of oil price shocks that furthermore can vary over time. In addition to structural changes affecting oil countries, structural changes arising from the oil market itself through the various, time-varying sources of oil price shocks are found to be crucial. |
| Keywords: | oil currencies;oil shocks;Time-Varying Parameter VAR model |
| JEL: | C32 F31 Q43 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepidt:2015-18&r=all |
| By: | Bertrand LAPORTE (Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches sur le Développement International(CERDI)); Guy Dabi GAB-LEYBA |
| Abstract: | Concession Contracts (CC) and Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) have quite different implications for Government Take and the properties of the tax system, such as progressivity. In general, taxation via CC introduces significant distortions in activity, particularly due to the balance of royalties which tax production irrespective of the profitability of the project. So CC is normally regressive while PSC is normally progressive, because PSC taxation depends more directly on the profitability of the project. Chad has the distinction of having introduced PSC in the 2007 Chad oil code, while maintaining a royalty on production. Despite this feature, we show with a Cash Flow model and Monte Carlo simulations that the application of the 2007 oil code introduced more progressivity into taxation. This feature is particularly interesting in the current context of falling crude oil prices, because it maintains a favorable tax regime for exploration and exploitation by multinational oil companies. As a result, the Chad government should reactivate a counter-cyclical policy of oil revenue reserves when the crude oil price increases again. |
| JEL: | N5 H21 E62 E27 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1741&r=all |
| By: | Baran Doda; Luca Taschini |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a simple framework to evaluate the economic advantage of regulating carbon emissions by linking the emissions trading systems (ETSs) of two jurisdictions versus operating them under autarky. The ETSs are linked if the permits issued in one, and traded competitively across both, can be surrendered against emissions in the other. The paper’s main innovation is in analyzing the sensitivity of aggregate and jurisdiction-specific economic advantage to the characteristics of the jurisdictions, in particular the uncertainty affecting the benefits of emissions. We decompose the economic advantage of linking into pair size, volatility and dependence effects. We show that when jurisdictions are ex ante identical and there are no tax distortions or sunk costs, the aggregate economic advantage is always non-negative and equally shared. It increases in pair size and in volatilities of jurisdiction-specific shocks but decreases in their correlation. In other words, there are only good and better links. With differences in ETS size the economic advantage is not equally shared, and the smaller jurisdiction receives a larger share. That is, linking partners may not value the link equally. When we additionally introduce sunk costs of linking, one jurisdiction may prefer an ETS under autarky to linking even when aggregate economic advantage is positive. A similar conclusion emerges with unilateral tax distortions affecting international permit trade. In an empirical application, we calibrate shock characteristics to the observed fluctuations in data from the world’s 20 largest emitters and document substantial variation in economic advantage and its components. |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp208&r=all |
| By: | Raphaël Trotignon; Pierre-André Jouvet; Boris Solier; Simon Quemin; Jérémy Elbeze |
| Abstract: | In January 2014, the European Commission proposed the introduction of a Market Stability Reserve (MSR) to improve the functioning of the European carbon emission trading scheme. This article is an attempt to enlighten the possible effects of such a reserve on the functioning of the EU ETS using the behavior-based simulation model Zephyr, specifically designed for representing imperfect inter-temporal compliance behavior in a simple framework. Our results suggest that the MSR can indeed raise the price in the short-medium term, reduce the number of allowances in circulation and foster earlier emission reductions. Nevertheless, it would do so at the expense of higher overall costs, because allowances are unlikely to be returned entirely to the market when needed, thus reinforcing the cap. The MSR also does not seem to have the desired dampening effect in case of external shocks. We conclude that although the MSR can help trigger early abatement and put Europe on a more ambitious abatement pathway over the long term, in the frame of our methodology, it seems unlikely that such a reserve make market participants and the public authority more able to deal with uncertainties in the future. |
| Keywords: | EU ETS, Market Stability Reserve (MSR), Simulation model, Governance |
| JEL: | Q58 P48 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cec:wpaper:1511&r=all |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Mallick, Hrushikesh; Kumar, Mantu; Loganathan, Nanthakumar |
| Abstract: | Using annual data for the period 1970-2012, the study explores the relationship between globalization and CO2 emissions by incorporating energy consumption, financial development and economic growth in CO2 emission function for India. It applies Lee and Strazicich (2013) unit root test for examining the stationary properties of variables in presence of structural breaks and employs the cointegration method proposed by Bayer-Hanck (2013) to test the long-run relationships in the model. The robustness s of cointegration result from the latter model was further verified with the application of the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration proposed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001). After confirming the existence of cointegration, the overall long run estimates of the estimation of carbon emission model points out that acceleration in the process of globalization (measured in its three dimensions - economic, social and political globalizations) and energy consumption result in increasing CO2 emissions, along with the contribution of economic development and financial development towards the deterioration of the environmental quality by raising CO2 emissions over the long-run. This finding validates holding of environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for the Indian context. |
| Keywords: | Globalization, Economic growth, Energy consumption, CO2 Emissions |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2015–10–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:67285&r=all |
| By: | Goel,Deepti; Gupta,Sonam |
| Abstract: | The Delhi Metro (DM) is a mass rapid transit system serving the National Capital Region of India. It is also the world?s first rail project to earn carbon credits under the Clean Development Mechanism of the United Nations for reductions in CO2 emissions. Did the DM also lead to localized reduction in three transportation source pollutants? Looking at the period 2004?2006, one of the larger rail extensions of the DM led to a 34 percent reduction in localized CO at a major traffic intersection in the city. Results for NO2 are also suggestive of a decline, while those for PM25 are inconclusive due to missing data. These impacts of pollutant reductions are for the short run. A complete accounting of all long run costs and benefits should be done before building capital intensive metro rail projects. |
| Keywords: | Air Quality&Clean Air,Pollution Management&Control,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases,Brown Issues and Health |
| Date: | 2015–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7448&r=all |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Khraief, Naceur; Dhaoui, Abderrazak |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the causal relationship between road transportation energy consumption, fuel prices, transport sector value added and CO2 emissions in Tunisia for the period 1980-2012. We apply the newly developed combined cointegration test proposed by Bayer and Hanck (2013) and the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration to establish the existence of long-run relationship in presence of structural breaks. The direction of causality between these variables is determined via vector error correction model (VECM). Our empirical exercise reveals that the cointegration is present. Energy consumption adds in CO2 emissions. Fuel prices decline CO2 emissions. Road infrastructure boosts in CO2 emissions. Transport value-added also increases CO2 emissions. The causality analysis indicates the bidirectional casual relationship between energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Road infrastructure causes CO2 emissions and similar is true from opposite side in Granger sense. The bidirectional causality is also found between transport value-added and CO2 emissions. Fuel prices cause CO2 emissions, energy consumption, road infrastructure and transport value-added. This paper provides new insights to policy makers to design a comprehensive energy, transport and environment policies for sustainable economic growth in long run. |
| Keywords: | Road Transport, CO2 Emissions, Tunisia |
| JEL: | C1 |
| Date: | 2015–10–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:67286&r=all |
| By: | Akpalu Wisdom; Muchapondwa Edwin; Adidoye Babatunde; Simbanegavi Witness |
| Abstract: | A linear public good experiment has been employed to investigate strategic behaviour in pollution abatement among African climate decision-makers. The experiment consisted of three groups of which Group 1 did not receive any treatments, and Groups 2 and 3 |
| Keywords: | Group decision making, Hazardous wastes, Natural disasters, Pollution |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2015-060&r=all |
| By: | Nathalie Berta (REGARDS - Université de Reims et Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Emmanuelle Gautherat (REGARDS - Université de Reims et LS-CREST - Genes); Ozgur Gun (REGARDS - Université de Reims) |
| Abstract: | The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is supposed to help regulated installations to cover their CO2 emissions by trading in allowances. In practice, the EU ETS is mainly a financial market used for hedging and speculation. This financial feature is regarded as a solution (hedging and liquidity) to a problem (the price risk and volatility imposed on installations) which the market has actually created itself. This paper provides an estimation of the real underpinning of the scheme, i.e. the needs of installations for allowances transfers to achieve compliance in the two first exchange periods. This estimation, which was singularly lacking in the literature, shows that compliance transactions become more and more marginal as market activity grows and that they are drowned in a whirlpool of speculation. This challenges the role of the carbon price whose financial and self-referential evaluation can obviously not reveal installations' marginal abatement costs, the condition of cost-effectiveness expected from carbon trading |
| Keywords: | European Union Emissions Trading Scheme; carbon market; CO2 allowance; carbon finance |
| JEL: | B5 Q02 Q5 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:15074&r=all |