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on Energy Economics |
| By: | David Newbery |
| Abstract: | Abstract The present pattern of taxation, charging, and providing support has accumulated over time in a haphazard way without the kind of strategic thinking that a long-term economic plan requires. This note sets out the sound economic and public finance principles that could guide the reform of energy taxes and supports primarily in the electricity sector. It argues for ending the RO and Feed-in Tariff schemes and replacing them by demonstrably successful CfD auctions which have dramatically lowered the cost of financing renewables. It argues for a state development bank to leverage cheap finance for low-carbon investments, reforming the form of the contracts, replacing the current alphabet soup of charges by the strandard rate of VAT on all energy and instead funding climate change policies from general taxation, thus exempting the productive sector from distortive charges, and allowing the Carbon Price Support to resume its trajectory, restoring fiscal sanity and balance. Ending all support for the cheapest renewable electricity (on-shore wind) makes no sense and it would be better to have a single auction for all renewables that create learning benefits – which would rule out any subsidies to tidal lagoons |
| Keywords: | Energy policy, renewables, support schemes, taxes |
| JEL: | H2 H41 Q42 Q48 Q54 |
| Date: | 2015–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1526&r=all |
| By: | Bensch, Gunther; Peters, Jörg; Sievert, Maximiliane |
| Abstract: | Non-electrified people in Africa, still more than 500 million today, have been using kerosene and candles for their lighting purposes for decades. The lighting quality of these sources is low and in particular kerosene usage is associated with harmful soot emissions. Alleviating this grievance has always been a major goal of electrification programs. The present paper shows that in recent years a transition has taken place among the rural non-electrified population in Africa: without any external support from governmental or non-governmental organisations people have replaced kerosene lamps and candles through LED lamps, which are mostly powered by dry-cell batteries. LED lamps are available in rural shops virtually everywhere and provide brighter and cleaner lighting than traditional lamps. The downside of this massive increase of LED usage is a soaring consumption of dry-cell batteries. Because of the toxic content of many dry-cell batteries and since people dispose of discharged batteries inappropriately in latrines or the nature, harmful effects on the local environment are likely. We conclude by suggesting that rapid action is needed to put in place an effective waste management system. |
| Abstract: | Menschen ohne Stromzugang in Afrika nutzen seit Jahrzehnten Kerosin und Kerzen zur Beleuchtung. Deren Lichtausbeute ist niedrig und insbesondere die Nutzung von Kerosin ist mit schädlichem Rußausstoß verbunden. Diese Mängel zu beheben war stets ein wesentliches Ziel von Elektrifizierungsprogrammen in der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit. Die vorliegende Arbeit zeigt auf, dass in den letzten Jahren ein Wandel unter der nicht-elektrifizierten Landbevölkerung in Afrika stattgefunden hat: ohne externe Unterstützung von staatlichen oder nichtstaatlichen Organisationen ist es den Menschen gelungen Petroleumlampen und Kerzen durch LED-Lampen zu ersetzen, die größtenteils durch Trockenbatterien angetrieben werden. LED-Lampen sind in ländlichen Geschäften inzwischen praktisch überall erhältlich und bieten helleres und saubereres Licht als traditionelle Beleuchtungsmittel. Die Kehrseite des massiven Anstiegs der LED-Nutzung ist der steigende Verbrauch von Trockenbatterien. Angesichts der giftigen Bestandteile vieler Batterien und einer häufig unsachgemäßen Entsorgung in Latrinen oder in der Natur, sind schädliche Auswirkungen auf die lokale Umwelt und damit auf den Menschen zu erwarten. Wir schließen aus unserer Studie, dass rasches Handeln erforderlich ist, um wirksame Abfallmanagementsysteme zu etablieren. |
| Keywords: | electrification,energy access,technology adoption,off-grid energy usage,e-waste |
| JEL: | O13 O33 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:579&r=all |
| By: | Oberst, Christian (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the preferences of homeowners in Germany regarding the adoption of renewable energy‐based micro‐generation technologies using data from a survey with a discrete choice experiment. In the German policy debate, private households, in their possible joint roles as electricity producers and consumers, are discussed as potential key actors for the transition of the energy system towards a decentralized energy market based on renewable energies. In our study, we address the relevance of investment and usage characteristics as well as the perceived importance of both private and social costs and benefits behind prosumer preferences for the adoption of generic electricity micro‐generation technologies. The empirical investigation is based on a conditional logit model. The results show the perceived usefulness of electricity self‐supply, indicating that the motivation for electricity "prosuming" is about more than just using green electricity and undertaking a profitable (energy) investment. Policy makers should not rely on the intrinsic motivation of households to contribute towards climate protection but instead take social effects more strongly into account in their policies which aim to foster the energy system transition (“Energiewende”). Further, both energy policies and business models should avoid the introduction of overly complex measures which might be too demanding on households. |
| Keywords: | Prosumer; micro‐generation technologies; choice experiment; renewable energy; energy transition; policy |
| JEL: | C25 D12 O33 Q20 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2014_022&r=all |
| By: | Meredith A. Crowley and Huasheng Song |
| Abstract: | We examine the stock market performance of publicly-listed Chinese firms in the solar panel industry over 2012 and 2013 in response to announcements of new import restrictions by the European Union and domestic policy changes by the Chinese government. Using daily stock market prices from the Shanghai-Shenzhen, New York and Hong Kong markets, we calculate abnormal returns to several policy changes affecting solar panels produced in China. We find, consistent with the Melitz (2003) model, that larger, more export-oriented firms experienced larger stock market losses in the wake of European trade restriction announcements. We further show that European trade policy had a larger negative effect on Chinese private sector firms relative to state owned enterprises. Finally, we use a two stage least squares estimation technique to show that firms listed on US markets are more responsive to news events than those listed in China and Hong Kong. |
| Keywords: | Chinese exports, antidumping, solar panels, event study |
| JEL: | F12 F13 G10 G14 |
| Date: | 2015–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1529&r=all |
| By: | Ambec, Stefan; Crampes, Claude |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of public policies that aim to decarbonate electricity production by replacing fossil fuel energy by intermittent renewable sources, namely wind and solar power. We consider a model of energy investment and production with two sources of energy: one is clean but intermittent (e.g. wind), whereas the other one is reliable but polluting (e.g. coal). A carbon tax decreases electricity production while simultaneously increasing investment in wind power. This tax may however increase total capacity because the retailing price of electricity does not depend on energy availability, which means that windmill capacity must be backed-up by thermal power plants. Feed-in tariffs and renewable portfolio standards enhance investment into intermittent sources of energy. However, both are likely to boost electricity production beyond the efficient level, in which case they must be complemented with a tax on electricity consumption. We also determine the social value of two technologies to accommodate intermittency: energy storage and smart meters. Lastly, we consider the case of a monopoly thermal power producer. The entry of a competitive fringe of wind power producers makes the thermal power producer reduce further its production capacity, which increases the electricity price. |
| Keywords: | Electricity, Intermittency, Tax, Feed-in-Tariff, Renewable Energy, Pollution |
| JEL: | D24 D61 Q41 Q42 Q48 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:29799&r=all |
| By: | Sébastien Phan, Fabien Roques |
| Abstract: | European power markets have become more integrated and the implementation of market coupling has reinforced the efficiency of cross-border trading. This paper investigates empirically the impact of renewables growth in Germany on German and French power price volatility. We find that renewables depress power prices on average and increase volatility not only domestically but also across borders. We also leverage market resiliency data to investigate the impact of increases in interconnection capacity. We find that power price volatility would decrease in France despite some contagion effects of volatility from German renewables production. Our findings have important policy implications as they demonstrate the need to coordinate cross-border support policies for renewables in order to mitigate the impact of volatility on power prices in coupled power markets. |
| Keywords: | capital; electricity market, renewables, market coupling, GARCH |
| JEL: | L1 L5 L94 |
| Date: | 2015–09–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:1527&r=all |
| By: | Goodness C. Aye (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Peter Wanke (COPPEAD Graduate Business School, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rua Paschoal Lemme, 355. 21949-900 Rio de Janeiro) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an efficiency assessment in South Africa from 1965-2014 using Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to The Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In this research, TOPSIS is used first in a two-stage approach to assess how energy efficiency in South Africa evolved using the most frequent indicators adopted by the literature. Afterwards, in the second stage, neural networks are combined with TOPSIS results as part of an attempt to produce a model for energy performance with effective predictive ability. The results reveal different impacts of contextual variables, such as the rise of China in foreign trade, the Apartheid Regime, and oil shocks, on energy efficiency levels in South Africa. |
| Keywords: | energy efficiency, South Africa, TOPSIS, two-stage, neural networks |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201571&r=all |
| By: | Mahmood Mahmoodzadeh (Department of Economics, Firoozkooh Branch, Islamic Azad University); Somaye Sadeghi (Department of Economics, Firoozkooh Branch, Islamic Azad University); Soraya Sadeghi (MA in Economics); Saleh Ghavidel (Department of Economics, Firoozkooh Branch, Islamic Azad University,Firoozkooh) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effects of innovation investments in Iranian industries including R&D expenditures (disaggregated as domestic and foreign) and ICT investments on energy intensity in three clusters of Iranian industries including small, medium and large size industries. We used the GMM panel method to estimate during 2000-2009 periods. The results show that in all clusters, domestic R&D expenditures have not significant effect on energy intensity, while foreign R&D expenditures induces to decrease considerably energy intensity. Also, ICT investments cause to increase energy intensity. Moreover, as expected, the spillovers from these innovations, especially R&D spillover cause to decrease energy intensity. Overall, in Iranian firms, innovation investments, in particular foreign R&D expenditures play a substantial role to improve energy efficiency. |
| Keywords: | Energy Intensity, ICT Investments, Domestic R&D, Foreign R&D, Spillovers |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:2804578&r=all |
| By: | Eoin Ó Broin (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS, Chalmers - Chalmers University of Technology - Chalmers University of Technology); Jonas Nässén (Chalmers - Chalmers University of Technology - Chalmers University of Technology); Filip Johnsson (Chalmers - Chalmers University of Technology - Chalmers University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | We present an empirical analysis of the more than 250 space heating-focused energy efficiency policies that have been in force at the EU and national levels in the period 1990–2010. This analysis looks at the EU-14 residential sector (Pre-2004 EU-15, excluding Luxembourg) using a panel data regression analysis on unit consumption of energy for space heating (kWh/m2/year). The policies are represented as a regression variable using a semi-quantitative impact estimation obtained from the MURE Policy Database. The impacts of the policies as a whole, and subdivided into financial, regulatory, and informative policies, are examined. The correlation between the actual reductions in demand and the estimated impact of regulatory policies is found to be stronger than the corresponding correlations with the respective impacts of financial policies and informative polices. Together with the well-known market barriers to energy efficiency that exist in the residential sector, these findings suggest that regulatory policy measures be given a high priority in the design of an effective pathway towards the EU-wide goals for space heating energy. |
| Keywords: | Residential, Econometrics, Efficiency, Policy, Space heat, Regulations |
| Date: | 2014–11–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01205485&r=all |
| By: | Yamamura, Eiji |
| Abstract: | This study uses prefecture-level panel data from Japan for the period 2008?2014 to investigate the influence of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident on the z-score of body mass index (BMI z-score) and obesity rates of children over time. A difference-in-differences approach was used to show that: (1) For cohorts aged between 5 and 7 years old in 2010, BMI z-score and obesity rates in disaster-damaged areas were higher than those in other areas, although this was not observed for other cohorts; (2) For cohorts aged between 5 and 7 years old in 2010, the influence of the accident persisted even after 3 years; and (3) The differences in BMI z-score and obesity rate before and after the accident were larger for Fukushima Prefecture than other damaged areas (Iwate and Miyagi prefectures). We infer that health-conscious parents, whose children had lower BMIs, may have moved from Fukushima, increasing the BMI z-score of the population of children living in Fukushima by around 0.05 for the cohort aged 5?7. The enforced reduction in physical activity increased the BMI z-score of children living in Fukushima by around 0.19 for the cohort. |
| Keywords: | Fukushima, Nuclear accident; Body mass index; Obesity |
| JEL: | H12 I18 |
| Date: | 2015–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:67076&r=all |
| By: | Gunnar Lindberg; Lasse Fridstrøm |
| Abstract: | An increase in the market share of electric vehicles is one possible policy strategy for greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement. Many governments have introduced schemes to increase the market uptake – fiscal incentives, subsidies and various regulatory policies such as support for charging stations, free parking facilities or access to restricted road lanes as well as R&D funding. A number of partial studies do exist, but the comprehensive comparative study on the effect of these different incentives has yet to be done. Based on the experience until today it is, however, possible to explore the policy options. |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2015/16-en&r=all |
| By: | METIN DEMIR (Department of Landscape Architecture, Faculty of Architecture and Design, Atatürk University); MEHMET GUVEN (Aegean Forestry Research Institute, Forest Ecology and Soil Department) |
| Abstract: | The way to become a powerful state in today’s world passes through having a robust economy and using of underground-overground resources efficient. In parallel with rapid population growth, urbanization and socio-economic development, need for electric energy of Turkey increases rapidly. Increasing of electricity need causes the growing importance of Hydroelectric Power Plants (HPP) in terms of being renewable and cheap.In the study, impacts of Hydroelectric power plants, which are brought state policy into overcoming energy deficit in Turkey, on flora and fauna,socio-economic structure and climate have been discussed. In addition, following the legal operation process of HPP, hydroelectric energy policy in Turkey has been examined HPP in private |
| Keywords: | Energy policy, Renewable energy, Hydroelectric power plant (HPP), Turkey |
| JEL: | Q25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:2804824&r=all |
| By: | Pu Wang; Bidong Liu; Tao Hong |
| Abstract: | Temperature plays a key role in driving electricity demand. We adopt "recency effect", a term originated from psychology, to denote the fact that electricity demand is affected by the temperatures of preceding hours. In the load forecasting literature, the temperature variables are often constructed in the form of lagged hourly temperatures and moving average temperatures. Over the past decades, computing power has been limiting the amount of temperature variables that can be used in a load forecasting model. In this paper, we present a comprehensive study on modeling recency effect through a big data approach. We take advantage of the modern computing power to answer a fundamental question: how many lagged hourly temperatures and/or moving average temperatures are needed in a regression model to fully capture recency effect without compromising the forecasting accuracy? Using the case study based on data from the load forecasting track of the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012, we first demonstrate that a model with recency effect outperforms its counterpart (a.k.a., Tao’s Vanilla Benchmark Model) in forecasting the load series at the top (aggregated) level by 18% to 21%. We then apply recency effect modeling to customize load forecasting models at low level of a geographic hierarchy, again showing the superiority over the benchmark model by 12% to 15% on average. Finally, we discuss four different implementations of the recency effect modeling by hour of a day. |
| Keywords: | Electric load forecasting; Regression; Recency effect; Big data approach; Global Energy Forecasting Competition |
| JEL: | C22 C32 C53 Q47 |
| Date: | 2015–10–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1508&r=all |
| By: | Mir Hossein Mousavi (Alzahra University) |
| Abstract: | Natural gas is one of the most important energy for household sector in entire the world. Iran has rich gas reserves and after Russia, Iran has the largest natural gas reserves in entire the world. A study of natural gas demand is very important and crucial for policy makers of energy sources in Iran. With a good estimation of natural gas demand as a result a good forecasting of natural gas demand, policy makers of energy sources can to plan an accurate energy planning. The aim of this paper is analyzing the effective factors on natural gas demand in household sector of Iran. For do it, we have used structural time series method with Kalman Filter algorithm during 1974-2010 period. Results indicate that time trend as a proxy for technology and non-economic factors is non-linear process and the elasticity of demand to price of natural gas is -0.50. Also, the elasticity of natural gas demand to price of electricity as a substitute commodity for natural gas is 0.48. The elasticity of gas demand to gas splits and real GDP per capita is 2.37 and 0.72 respectively. Conclusion: The elasticity of demand to price of natural gas is -0.50 that it shows that natural gas is an essential commodity for household sector in Iran. |
| Keywords: | Gas Demand, Household Sector, Structural Time Series, Kalman Filter |
| JEL: | Q41 C19 D19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:2804383&r=all |
| By: | Catherine Locatelli (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier) |
| Abstract: | Le développement des échanges gaziers entre la Russie et la Chine s’inscrit dans un processus qui de part et d’autre vise une stratégie de diversification afin de répondre à des préoccupations de sécurité énergétique dans ses deux dimensions, offre et demande. Il s’agit pour la Chine de sécuriser son approvisionnement gazier par la diversification de ses fournisseurs et de ses routes d’importation (sécurité de l’offre). Il s’agit pour la Russie de diversifier ses marchés d’exportation pour sécuriser la demande gazière qui lui sera adressée. Au-delà de ces enjeux économiques, le développement des échanges gaziers entre la Russie et la Chine s’inscrit dans un contexte institutionnel particulier. Ce dernier est marqué par une relative proximité des modèles d’organisation de leurs industries gazières respectives, ainsi que des modalités de leur régulation (règles, normes) et une forte opposition au modèle concurrentiel de l’UE. Les modalités de gestion de la sécurité énergétique en sont fortement impactées. |
| Keywords: | Échanges de gaz naturel,Chine,Russie,structure de gouvernance,industrie gazière |
| Date: | 2015–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01206226&r=all |
| By: | Dreger, Christian (BOFIT); Fidrmuc , Jarko (BOFIT); Kholodilin , Konstantin (BOFIT); Ulbricht , Dirk (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | The exchange rate fluctuations strongly affect the Russian economy, given its heavy dependence on foreign trade and investment. Since January 2014, the Ruble lost 50% of its value against the US Dollar. The fall of the currency started with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The impact of the conflict on Russia may have been amplified by sanctions imposed by Western countries. However, as Russia is heavily dependent on exports of natural re-sources, the oil price decline starting in Summer 2014 could be another factor behind the deterioration. By using high frequency data on nominal exchange and interest rates, oil prices, actual and unanticipated sanctions, we provide evidence on the driving forces of the Ruble exchange rate. The analysis is based on cointegrated VAR models, where fundamental long-run relationships are implicitly embedded. The results indicate that the bulk of the depreciation can be related to the decline of oil prices. In addition, unanticipated sanctions matter for the conditional volatility of the variables involved. |
| Keywords: | military conflict; sanctions; oil prices; Ruble depreciation |
| JEL: | C22 F31 F51 |
| Date: | 2015–08–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2015_025&r=all |
| By: | Victor Court; Florian Fizaine |
| Abstract: | So far the Energy-Return-On-Investment (EROI) of fossil fuels has been estimated for recent decades only and generally in specific country contexts. In the present paper we propose a methodology to assess the global EROI of coal, oil and gas from the beginning of their reported production (respectively 1800, 1860 and 1890) to 2011. In order to do that we first estimate on the same time periods the global time series of the energy prices of these different fossil fuels, the monetary return on investment of the energy sector, and the total energy intensity of the economy. These preliminary results allow us to estimate the historical global EROI of coal, oil and gas productions, and the historical EROI of the global primary fossil energy sector. We find that the maximum EROI of global oil and gas productions have respectively reached the values of 73:1 in 1931 and 200:1 in 1945, which is in line with previous studies that had hypothesized such results (without possible verification). We also find a good concordance between our results and the estimations of the global EROI of oil and gas performed by Gagnon et al. (2009) on the 1992-2006 time period. Furthermore, we suggest that the EROI of global coal production has not yet reached its maximum value (which is however very close) and that marginal gains are still to be expected in this sector thanks to coming technological improvement. In this article we also present a new theoretical dynamic expression of the EROI of a given energy resource as a function of its cumulated production based on the original work of Dale et al. (2011). We are able to calibrate with a rather good fit such a theoretical model on each of our historical estimates of coal, oil and gas global EROI. We then use this theoretical model in a prospective exercise and estimate that a maximum EROI value of 106:1 will be attained for global coal in 2022. |
| Keywords: | EROI, Fossil energy prices, Theoretical EROI function. |
| JEL: | N7 Q3 Q4 Q57 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cec:wpaper:1510&r=all |
| By: | Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad (Asian Development Bank Institute); Rasolinezhad, Ehsan (Asian Development Bank Institute); Kobayashi, Yoshikazu (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | Since the oil price shocks of the 1970s, several studies have found significant impacts of oil prices on macro variables. However, it is particularly crucial to know how each micro sector in an economy, such as the residential, transport, industrial and non-energy sectors, respond to oil price impulses. In this research, we try to shed light on the impact of crude oil price volatility on each sector in Japan, the world’s third-largest crude oil consumer. In order to do so, we apply a vector auto regression model and perform impulse response analysis by using quarterly data from Q1 1990 to Q1 2014. The findings indicate that some economic sectors, such as the residential sector, did not have significant sensitivity to the sharp oil price fluctuations. In contrast, some other sectors, like the commercial, industrial, and transport sectors, were strongly sensitive to the drastic oil price fluctuations. Moreover, our findings show that after the Fukushima disaster in 2011, which led to the shutdown of nuclear power plants in Japan, because of greater reliance on oil imports, the sensitivity of most sectors to oil price volatility declined. |
| Keywords: | oil price fluctuations; oil shocks; energy sectors; Japan; Oil Consuming Sectors |
| JEL: | C32 O49 Q43 |
| Date: | 2015–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0539&r=all |
| By: | Jose Ustorgio Mora Mora (Faculty of Economics and Management, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana Cali) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an aggregate demand and supply model for the Venezuelan economy assuming two productive sectors (oil and non-oil), a fixed exchange rate regime and cero capital mobility. This model helps explain the impacts that domestic (fiscal, monetary productivity, etc.) and foreign shocks have on real output and the price level. Although results are consistent with economic theory, it is necessary to emphasize that a Bolivar devaluation contracts real output and raises the price level and that an oil price increase causes an increase in real output but triggers an ambiguous effect on the price level. |
| Keywords: | oil producing countries, aggregate supply, aggregate demand, business cycles, exchange rate regimes. |
| JEL: | B22 E12 E32 N56 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ddt:wpaper:14&r=all |
| By: | Seyednematollah Moosavi (Department of Agricultural Economics,Marvdasht Branch,Islamic Azad University ,Marvdasht,Iran) |
| Abstract: | This study aims at examining energy intensity determinants in agriculture sector. To get this aim data for 1974-2012 were applied. Factors affecting energy intensity in agriculture sector are per capita GDP, energy price, labor per capita capital and capital growth. Energy intensity also was decomposed into energy use efficiency index and structural change index. The results showed that energy efficiency index in agriculture is mostly affected by capital-labor ratio and energy real price but per capita GDP and capital growth failed to affect it significantly. While capital growth and per capita GDP showed a significant role in structural changes specification. In general, the results revealed that most of energy intensity changes in agriculture is realized via energy efficiency changes. |
| Keywords: | Energy intensity, Agricultural sector, Iran |
| JEL: | O13 Q48 Q49 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:2805088&r=all |
| By: | Ujjayant Chakravorty (Department of Economics, Tufts University (TSE, CESifo)); Marie-Hélène Hubert (CREM, Department of Economics, University of Rennes 1); Michel Moreaux (Toulouse School of Economics (IDEI, LERNA)); Linda Nostbakken (Department of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | More than 40% of US corn is now used to produce biofuels, which are used as substitutes for gasoline in transportation. Biofuels have been blamed universally for past increases in world food prices, and many studies have shown that these energy mandates in the US and EU may have a large (30-60%) impact on food prices. In this paper, we use a partial equilibrium framework to show that demand-side effects – in the form of population growth and income-driven preferences for meat and dairy products rather than cereals – may play as much of a role in raising food prices as biofuel policy. By specifying a Ricardian model with differential land quality, we find that a significant amount of new land will be converted to farming, which is likely to cause a modest increase in food prices. However, biofuels may increase aggregate world carbon emissions, due to leakage from lower oil prices and conversion of pasture and forest land for farming. |
| Keywords: | Clean Energy, Food Demand, Land Quality, Renewable Fuel Standards, Transportation |
| JEL: | Q24 Q32 Q42 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:wpaper:2015.16&r=all |
| By: | Jean-François Gruson (IFPEN - IFP Energies Nouvelles - IFP Energies Nouvelles); Sylvain Serbutoviez (IFPEN - IFP Energies Nouvelles - IFP Energies Nouvelles); Florence Delprat-Jannaud (IFPEN - IFP Energies Nouvelles - IFP Energies Nouvelles); Maxine Akhurst (BGS - British Geological Survey - BGS); C. Nielsen (Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) - Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS)); F. Dalhoff (Vattenfall); P. Bergmo (SINTEF); C. Bos (TNO [Pays-Bas] - TNO); Valentina Volpi (OGS - Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica sperimentale - OGS); S. Iacobellis (ENEL) |
| Abstract: | Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) should be a key technology in order to achieve a decline in the CO2 emissions intensity of the power sector and other intensive industry, but this potential deployment could be restricted by cost issues as the International Energy Agency (IEA) in their last projections (World Energy Outlook 2013) has considered only around 1% of global fossil fuel-fired power plants could be equipped with CCS by 2035. The SiteChar project funded by 7th Framework Programme of European Commission gives the opportunity to evaluate the most influential parameters of techno-economic evaluations of four feasible European projects for CO2 geological storage located onshore and offshore and related to aquifer storage or oil and gas reservoirs, at different stages of characterization. Four potential CO2 storage sites have been assessed in terms of storage costs per tonne of CO2 permanently stored (equivalent cost based). They are located offshore UK, onshore Denmark, offshore Norway and offshore Italy. The four SiteChar techno-economic evaluations confirm it is not possible to derive any meaningful average cost for a CO2 storage site. The results demonstrate that the structure of costs for a project is heterogeneous and the storage cost is consequently site dependent. The strategy of the site development is fundamental, the technical choices such as the timing, rate and duration of injection are also important. The way monitoring is managed, using observation wells and logging has a strong impact on the estimated monitoring costs. Options to lower monitoring costs, such as permanent surveys, exist and should be further investigated. Table 1 below summarizes the cost range in Euro per tonne (Discount Rate (DR) at 8%) for the different sites, which illustrates the various orders of magnitude due to the specificities of each site. These figures have how to be considered with care. In particular the Italian and Norwegian sites present very specific features that explain the high estimated costs. For the Italian site, the short duration of CO2 injection associated with a low injection rate makes the CO2 project comparable to a demo project. The Norwegian site is an offshore site located in a virgin area with high infrastructure costs and a combination of injection duration and injection rate that makes the derived costs very sensitive to the discount rate. The results for both UK and Danish sites confirm therefore the value range calculated by the European Technology Platform for Zero Emission Fossil Fuel Power Plants (ZEP). The main uncertainties in the costs are linked both to the choice of economic parameters (e.g. injected quantities, contingencies) and to the technical choice of operations. This has been studied by sensitivity analyses: for example, if an injection rate is halved and the injection duration is doubled, the Equivalent Storage Cost (ESC) increases by 23% (UK case at 8% DR). Introducing a water production well and water treatment facilities also increases the ESC by 23%, at least on an onshore site. Techno-economic assessments were basically carried out using an 8% discount rate. For projects of long lifetime such a rate severely discounts the late cash flow, especially after 40 years, so that a discount rate of around 4% more in logic of public investment. Compared to other studies, it has to be noted that the scope of the SiteChar analysis does not consider compression and pumping cost, nor transportation cost. This simplifies the techno-economic evaluation but it may not adequately reflect the specific conditions of the individual developments and, hence, distort the comparison between different cases. Lastly, techno-economic evaluation poses questions to policy makers about the real lifetime of a CO2 storage project: what should be the abandon phase and the associated cost and what is the real value of the liability transfer after 20 years of storage? This issue is still an open question, which has been addressed in SiteChar assuming the same approach as ZEP (2011). To counterbalance these CO2 storage costs, policy makers have to set up incentives, either through ETS (Emission Trading System) credits, tax credits or public funding. To improve the commerciality of CCS, Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) should be taken into account in the regulation of CCS, as it is one of the rare sources for revenue from a commodity with a real market value. CO2 storage in a saline aquifer close to oil and gas fields could also be considered as a source for CO2 EOR. |
| Keywords: | Techno-economic assessments,CO2 injection,Well monitoring,CCS,Carbon capture and storage,Site evaluation,CO2 Emissions,Cost evaluation,Lifetime of a CO2 storage project |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01206229&r=all |
| By: | Fujii, Hidemichi; Managi, Shunsuke |
| Abstract: | This study analyzed the relationship between economic growth and emissions of eight environmental air pollutants (CO2, CH4, N2O, NOx, SOx, CO, NMVOC, and NH3) in 39 countries from 1995 to 2009. We tested an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis for 16 individual industry sectors and for the total industrial sector. The results clarified that at least ten individual industries do not have an EKC relationship in eight air pollutants even though this relationship was observed in the country and total industrial sector level data. We found that the key industries that dictated the EKC relationship in the country and the total industrial sector are existed in CO2, N2O, CO, and NMVOC emissions. Finally, the EKC turning point and the relationship between economic development and trends of air pollutant emissions differ among industries according to the pollution substances. These results suggest inducing new environmental policy design such as the sectoral crediting mechanism, which focuses on the industrial characteristics of emissions. |
| Keywords: | environmental Kuznets curve, air pollution, industrial sector, key industry, sectoral crediting mechanism, industrial characteristics |
| JEL: | L60 Q53 Q56 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:67027&r=all |
| By: | Ambec, Stefan; Coria, Jessica |
| Abstract: | We analyze the interplay between policies aimed to control global and local pollution such as greenhouse gases and particulate matter. The two types of pollution interact in the abatement cost function of the polluting firms through economies or diseconomies of scope. They are regulated by distinct entities (global versus local), potentially with different instruments that are designed according to some specific agenda. We show that the choice of regulatory instrument and the timing of the regulations matter for efficiency. Emissions of local pollution are distorted if the local regulators anticipate that global pollution will later be regulated through emission caps. The regulation is too (not enough) stringent when abatement efforts exhibit economies (diseconomies) of scope. In contrast, we obtain efficiency if the global pollutant is regulated by tax provided that the revenues from taxing emissions are redistributed to the local communities in a lump-sum way. |
| Keywords: | Environmental regulation, multiple-pollutants, policy spillovers, emission tax, emission standard, emissions trading |
| JEL: | D62 Q50 Q53 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2015–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:wpaper:29798&r=all |
| By: | Olaf Merk |
| Abstract: | Shipping could – in one way - be considered a relatively clean transport mode. This is particularly the case if one takes the angle of emissions per tonne-kilometre. Typical ranges of CO2 efficiencies of ships are between 0 and 60 grams per tonne-kilometre, this range is 20-120 for rail transport and 80-180 for road transport (IMO 2009). There is considerable variety between vessel types and CO2 efficiency generally increases with vessel size; e.g. CO2 emissions per tonne-km (in grams per year) for a container feeder ship (with capacity up to 500 TEU) were 31.6, three times higher than the emissions for Post Panamax container ships, with a capacity larger than 4,400 TEU (Psaraftis and Kontovas, 2008). This difference is even larger for dry bulk ships, with a difference of more than a factor 10 between the smallest vessels (up to 5000 dwt) and capsize vessels (> 120,000 dwt). |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2014/20-en&r=all |
| By: | Zhu Liu; Steven J. Davis; Kuishuang Feng; Klaus Hubacek; Sai Liang; Anadon, Laura Diaz; Bin Chen; Liu, Jingru; Yan, Jinyue; Dabo Guan |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:336456&r=all |
| By: | Misato Sato |
| Abstract: | As increasingly complex modelling approaches to quantifying embodied carbon in trade have become popular, the lack of disaggregation has been identified as a key weakness. This paper quantifies embodied carbon in bilateral trade at the product level. This is done using the material balance approach, by collecting product carbon intensity factors from multiple data sources and combining with bilateral trade data in physical quantities. The dataset covers trades between 195 countries for 1080 products in 2006. The detailed mapping of trade embodied carbon provides detailed insights into the nature of the flows that were previously masked or under-reported. For example, it finds that the lion's share of global trade embodied emissions are concentrated in a relatively small number of product categories of traded goods, suggesting that focusing mitigation efforts and trade-measures on these products would be an effective strategy to address potential carbon leakage, and to decarbonise international supply chains. The results also highlight that embodied carbon is focused in regional trade, thus regional harmonisation of climate mitigation policy will be effective in mitigating leakage. |
| Keywords: | embodied carbon; International trade; carbon intensity; material balance approach |
| JEL: | N0 |
| Date: | 2014–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:57232&r=all |
| By: | Yangki Suara (King's College London) |
| Abstract: | John Kingdon’s introduced “multiple streams framework” to explain the agenda-setting process in the context of public policy. This paper employ Kingdon’s multiple streams model to explain the climate change negotiation led by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UNFCCC is clearly fitted with the criteria of an organised anarchy; unclear organisation processes, unclear preferences, and fluid participants. This paper presents an analysis of Kingdon’s three streams; problems streams, policies streams, and politics streams. A special emphasis is given to policy entrepreneurs who play a vital role over the last decade linking the solutions and problems in the global climate change conferences (policy window) and inviting head of states to attend and deliver their speech in the conferences. This paper also criticise Kingdon’s assumption on the relationship between these three streams. |
| Keywords: | climate change, agenda setting, multiple streams framework |
| JEL: | Q58 H41 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:2804656&r=all |
| By: | Eloi Laurent (OFCE) |
| Abstract: | Cet article se propose de passer en revue différents critères d’équité pour mesurer les émissions de CO2 des principaux pays responsables du changement climatique en vue de répartir justement le budget carbone lors de la prochaine négociation de Paris, en décembre 2015 (COP 21). Il montre notammentqu’il est possible, dans cette perspective, de bâtir à partir de données fiables un critère hybride de justice climatique relativement simple tenant compte des émissions de consommation, de la responsabilité historique, du niveau de la population et du niveau de développement |
| Keywords: | Budget carbone; COP 21; negociations climatiques; justice climatique |
| JEL: | Q01 Q48 Q54 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6cj9bbltrm9cvrdakm25m4pbkk&r=all |
| By: | Stephane Dion; Eloi Laurent (OFCE) |
| Abstract: | Nous proposons dans cet article de basculer les négociations climatiques de leur logique actuelle fondée sur les quantités vers une logique de prix. Notre proposition s’appuie d’une part sur un budget carbone axé sur le respect de la limite de deux degrés, menant à l'établissement d'une trajectoire différenciée, caractérisée par l'instauration de tarifs carbone progressivement convergents, chaque pays étant libre de déterminer la panoplie d'instruments qu'il désire employer pour augmenter son propre tarif. D’autre part, notre régime de prix du carbone apporte une solution à la question des inégalités entre pays (par un système de modulation et de compensations) et des inégalités internes chaque pays (en accélérant l'adaptation des modes de financement). |
| Keywords: | COP 21; negociations climatiques; prix du carbone; justcice climatique |
| JEL: | Q01 Q48 Q54 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/62c4i9p8g08t18vncntr0u8452&r=all |
| By: | Geoffrey Heal; Antony Millner |
| Abstract: | Climate change is fundamentally an `out-of-sample’ problem – our available information does not tightly constrain predictions of the consequences of rapid increases in greenhouse gas concentrations. Moreover, the fact that we haven’t observed much warming up to the present makes it very diffcult to validate scientifc and economic models of the medium to long-run consequences of climate change. We have many models, each based on roughly plausible assumptions about the dynamics of the climate-economy system, but we do not have confidence in our ability to select between them. Traditional approaches to decision under uncertainty do not permit a decision maker’s confidence in her information set to influence her choices. They require us to combine probability distributions from different models into a single summary distribution, even if we are not confident of our ability to discern which model captures reality best. Since all probabilities are created equal in this framework, this summary distribution is treated the same as a distribution that arises from a single well validated model. The decision framework forces us to make subjective probability judgments, but decision makers do not distinguish them from probabilities derived by constraining models with data. We suggest that approaches to decision under uncertainty that allow us to work with probabilities of different quality without combining them into a summary distribution may provide an attractive set of tools for analysis of climate policies. We set out the conceptual arguments for a departure from expected utility theory, give examples of alternative approaches to decision making under uncertainty, and discuss several common objections to them. We then suggest practical applications of these tools to integrated assessment models of climate policy, and investigate what difference they might make to policy recommendations. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp202&r=all |
| By: | Stephane Dion; Eloi Laurent (OFCE) |
| Abstract: | in this paper we propose to shift climate negotiations from the current logic of quantity to a logic of price. Our proposal brings together the logic of science-based efficiency and the logic of ethics-based justice. A carbon budget set to the two-degree limit leads to the establishment of a differentiated trajectory of gradually converging global pricing of carbon, each country freely determining the mix of instruments used to raise its price. Furthermore, our carbon price system addresses inequalities between countries (through modulations and compensations) and inequalities within countries (accelerating adaptation of financing) |
| Keywords: | COP 21; Climate negotitions; carbon price; climate justice |
| JEL: | Q48 Q54 Q01 |
| Date: | 2015–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1m02m1aha29ov8ujggmj30mtfj&r=all |
| By: | Robert Falkner |
| Abstract: | Gridlock in the multilateral climate negotiations has created growing scholarly and practical interest in the use of minilateral forums. A large variety of climate club proposals have been developed in recent years, which promise more effective bargaining among the main climate powers, better incentives to encourage mitigation efforts and discourage free-riding, and new ways to align international power asymmetries with the interests of the global climate regime. This paper investigates the three dominant rationales that underpin minilateralist proposals. It offers a critical review of the their potential as well as limitations in promoting global climate action. It argues that minilateralism is unlikely to overcome the structural barriers to a comprehensive and ambitious international climate agreement. However, climate clubs can enhance political dialogue in the context multilateral negotiations and provide a more conducive environment for great power bargaining. They can create club benefits that strengthen mitigation strategies by so-called coalitions of the willing and help reduce the dangers of free-riding. And they can help re-legitimate the global climate regime against the background of profound power shifts that have slowed down progress in the multilateral negotiations. |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp197&r=all |
| By: | Jihad C. Elnaboulsi (CRESE, Univ. Bourgogne Franche-Comté); W. Daher (Gulf University for Science and Technology, Department of Mathematics and Natural Science); Yigit Saglam (Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an analysis of environmental policy in imperfectly competitive market with private information. We examine how environmental taxes should be optimally levied when the regulator faces asymmetric information about production and abatement costs in an irreversible observable policy commitment game. Under our setting, the paper investigates how information disclosure can improve the efficiency of the tax setting process and may o¤er an e¢ cient complement to conventional regulatory approaches. From a policy perspective, our ?ndings suggest that access to publicly disclosed information improves the ability of the regulator to levy ?rms? speci?c environmental taxes. Despite its advantages, however, informational disclosure may harm the environmental policy it purports to enhance since it facilitates collusive behavior. We show that information sharing may occur and thus leads to a superior outcome in terms of industry output and emissions. Disclosure may undermine market performance and environmental policy. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Regulation, Emissions Taxes, Collusion, Disclosed Information, Private Information, Information Sharing. |
| JEL: | D81 D82 H23 L51 Q58 |
| Date: | 2015–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crb:wpaper:2015-14&r=all |
| By: | Frédéric Branger; Misato Sato |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes an innovative solution to distribute free allowances to the cement sector under emissions trading systems, called hybrid output-based allocation (OBA). We demonstrate that unlike many of the allocation methods currently being used, our design provides incentives which are aligned with the mitigation options available to this sector in the short to medium term. Specifically, it increases the incentive to improve the carbon intensity of clinker production; reduces the incentive to import clinker to avoid carbon costs; increases the incentive to use more low-carbon clinker alternatives to produce cement; and finally it reduces excess allocation and reduces incentives to inflate production volumes to obtain more free allowances. The hybrid OBA does not, however, provide incentives to reduce the consumption of cement or to bring about break-through technologies, hence should be considered as a mid-term solution to aid the decarbonization of the cement sector in conjunction with other support mechanisms. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp201&r=all |
| By: | Aimée Aguilar Jaber; Daniela Glocker |
| Abstract: | Private motorised vehicles account today for 90% of total surface transport1 CO2 emissions. Car fleets are growing rapidly in many cities in the developing world, where population and income growth will be concentrated in the coming decades. For example, whilst urban agglomerations with more than 500 000 inhabitants in Latin America, India and China currently account for only about 9% of total global CO2 emissions from motorised passenger surface transport, this share is likely to grow to 20% in the next 40 years. This means that 40% of the total global growth in CO2 emissions related to surface passenger transport will be generated in these cities (ITF, 2015). |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2015/17-en&r=all |
| By: | Stephen Smith; Nils Axel Braathen |
| Abstract: | Cost-benefit analyses and other quantitative appraisals are used in many countries to support decision-making in different areas of public policy, including many investment projects in sectors such as transport and energy. These decisions can have significant effects – either negative or positive – on future emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases and it is important whether, and how, countries incorporate estimates of the marginal value of changes in carbon dioxide emissions into these analyses. This paper discusses the range of approaches which can be employed to value changes in carbon emissions in policy appraisals, setting out the key issues in the choice of valuation principles, and presents some case studies and a survey of current practice in OECD countries.<BR>Les analyses coûts-avantages et d’autres évaluations quantitatives sont utilisées dans de nombreux pays pour étayer la prise de décisions dans différents domaines d’action publique, par exemple dans nombre de projets d’investissement dans les transports ou l’énergie. Ce sont des décisions qui peuvent avoir une influence notable –défavorable ou favorable – sur les émissions futures de dioxyde de carbone et d’autres gaz à effet de serre, c’est pourquoi il importe de savoir si des pays introduisent dans ces analyses des estimations de la valeur marginale des variations des émissions de dioxyde de carbone et comment ils procèdent à cet effet. Ce rapport examine les différentes approches possibles pour attacher des valeurs aux variations des émissions de carbone dans le cadre de l’évaluation des politiques, en signalant les grands problèmes que pose le choix des principes d’évaluation, et il présente quelques études de cas ainsi qu’une enquête sur les pratiques actuelles en la matière dans les pays de l’OCDE. |
| Keywords: | cost-benefit analysis, climate change policy, évaluation des politiques, analyse coûts-avantages |
| JEL: | H43 Q51 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2015–09–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:92-en&r=all |
| By: | Fergus Green |
| Abstract: | It has long been assumed that international cooperation on climate change has been slow because it is not in the interest of individual countries to act. This is based on the belief that climate change mitigation actions are net-costly for an individual state, despite the global, long-term benefit of avoiding dangerous climate change. Following this logic, individual countries all have the incentive to ‘free-ride’ on the efforts of others. This “individually rational†behaviour would result in climate change mitigation that is “collectively insufficient†to avoid dangerous climate change. However, this view is increasingly being challenged by theory and evidence. Recent research has suggested that much climate change mitigation action would actually be in states’ self-interest. This paper brings together that research into a single, coherent framework. It argues that there is a strong case that most of the emission reductions needed to avoid dangerous climate change can be achieved in ways that result in national economic benefits that outweigh the costs, even before climate-related benefits are taken into account. |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp199&r=all |
| By: | Bostian, Moriah (Lewis & Clark College); Färe, Rolf (Oregon State University); Grosskopf, Shawna (Oregon State University and CERE); Lundgren, Tommy (CERE) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the role of investment in environmental production practices for both environmental performance and energy efficiency over time. We employ a network DEA approach that links successive production technologies through intertemporal investment decisions with a period by period estimation. This allows us to estimate energy efficiency and environmental performance separately, as well as productivity change and its associated decompositions into efficiency change and technology change. Incorporating a network model also allows us to account for both short-term environmental management practices and long-term environmental investments in each of our productivity measures. We apply this framework to a panel of detailed plant-level production data for Swedish manufacturing firms covering the years 2002 - 2008. |
| Keywords: | Energy Efficiency; Environmental Performance; Network DEA; Malmquist Index; Investment |
| JEL: | D22 D24 M14 |
| Date: | 2015–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:slucer:2015_010&r=all |