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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Richard Audoly (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Adrien Vogt-Schilb (The World Bank - The World Bank, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | This paper covers three policy-relevant aspects of the carbon content of elec-tricity that are well established among integrated assessment models but under-discussed in the policy debate. First, climate stabilization at any level from 2 • C to 3 • C requires electricity to be almost carbon-free by the end of the century. As such, the question for policy makers is not whether to decarbonize electricity but when to do it. Second, decarbonization of electricity is still possible and required if some of the key zero-carbon technologies — such as nuclear power or carbon capture and storage — turn out to be unavailable. Third, progres-sive decarbonization of electricity is part of every country's cost-effective means of contributing to climate stabilization. In addition, this paper provides cost-effective pathways of the carbon content of electricity — computed from the results of AMPERE, a recent integrated assessment model comparison study. These pathways may be used to benchmark existing decarbonization targets, such as those set by the European Energy Roadmap or the Clean Power Plan in the United States, or inform new policies in other countries. These pathways can also be used to assess the desirable uptake rates of electrification technolo-gies, such as electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, electric stoves and heat pumps, or industrial electric furnaces. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01079837&r=all |
| By: | Frédéric Branger (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS, AgroParisTech); Philippe Quirion (CNRS, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS) |
| Abstract: | We analyse variations of carbon emissions in the European cement industry from 1990 to 2012, at the European level (EU 27), and at the national level for six major producers (Germany, France, Spain, the United Kingdom, Italy and Poland). We apply a Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method, cross-referencing data from three databases: the Getting the Numbers Right (GNR) database developed by the Cement Sustainability Initiative, the European Union Transaction Log (EUTL), and the Eurostat International Trade database. Our decomposition method allows seven channels of emission change to be distinguished: activity, clinker trade, clinker share, alternative fuels, thermal and electrical energy efficiency, and electricity decarbonisation. We find that, apart from a slow trend of emission reductions coming from technological improvements (first from a decrease in the clinker share, then from an increase in alternative fuels), most of the emission change can be attributed to the activity effect. Using counterfactual scenarios, we estimate that the introduction of the EU ETS brought small but positive technological abatement (2.2% ± 1.3% between 2005 and 2012). Moreover, we find that the European cement industry has gained 3.5 billion Euros of " overallocation profits " , mostly due to the slowdown of production. |
| Date: | 2014–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01137935&r=all |
| By: | Ruud Egging; Franziska Holz |
| Abstract: | Recent supply security concerns in Europe have revived interest into the natural gas market. Here, we investigate investment behavior and trade in an imperfect market structure under uncertainty in both supply and demand. We focus on three uncertain events: i) transit of Russian gas via Ukraine that may be disrupted from 2020 on; ii) natural gas intensity of electricity generation in OECD countries that may lead to higher or lower natural gas demand after 2025; and iii) availability of shale gas around the globe after 2030. We illustrate how timing of investments is affected by inter-temporal hedging behavior of market agents, such as when LNG capacity provides ex-ante flexibility (e.g., in Ukraine to hedge for a possible Russian supply disruption) or an expost fallback option if domestic or nearby pipeline supply sources are low (e.g., uncertain shale gas resources in China). Moreover, we find that investment in LNG capacities is more determined by demand side pull (due to higher needs in electric power generation) than by supply side push (higher shale gas supplies needing an outlet). |
| Keywords: | Stochasticity, mixed complementarity model, natural gas |
| JEL: | C73 L71 Q34 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1498&r=all |
| By: | Huanan Li; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology); Zhi-Fu Mi |
| Abstract: | As the world's largest CO2 emitter, China's CO2 emissions have become one of the most popular issues concerned by domestic and foreign researchers. Therefore, analysis of the current status of China's carbon emissions is very important. After drawing a chart of China's carbon flow in 2012, based on the IPCC carbon emission inventory method and China's energy balance table, this paper gives a detailed description of the current status of China's carbon flow and compares the changing characteristics of China's carbon flow between 2008 and 2012. The results show that 75.12% of total CO2 emissions flow mainly into several sectors, such as ferrous sectors, and the chemical industry in the terminal sub-sectors. Although China's thermoelectric efficiency increased dramatically during past four years, emissions from the heat and power production sector are still increasing due to China's large demand for heat and power. In the ferrous metal and chemical industry sectors, CO2 emissions are mainly energy-related, while in the non-metallic mineral sector, CO2 emissions are mainly from process CO2 emissions. In different terminal sub-sectors, the main carriers of CO2 flow are different, thus, related CO2 reduction policies should also be targeted. In addition, some valuable suggestions are given in this paper. |
| Keywords: | CO2 flow chart, CO2 reductions, China |
| JEL: | Q54 Q40 |
| Date: | 2014–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:biw:wpaper:80&r=all |
| By: | Guta, Dawit Diriba; Börner, Jan |
| Abstract: | Ethiopia’s energy sector faces critical challenges to meeting steadily increasing demand given limited infrastructure, heavy reliance on hydroelectric power, and underdevelopment of alternative energy resources. The main aim of this paper is to investigate an optimal least cost investment decisions for integrated energy source diversification. We seek to contribute to the relevant literature by paying particular attention to the role of public policy for promoting renewable energy investment and to better understand future energy security implication of various uncertainties. Dynamic linear programming model created using General Algebraic Modelling Systems (GAMS) software was used to explore the national energy security implications of uncertainties associated with technological and efficiency innovations, and climate change or drought scenarios. To cope with the impacts of drought on hydroelectric power production Ethiopia would need to invest in the development of alternative energy resources. This would improve sustainability and reliability, but these changes would also increase production costs. But greater technical and efficiency innovations found to improve electricity diversification, reduce production costs and shadow prices or resources scarcity; and are, thus, key for reducing the risks posed by drought and for enhancing energy security. |
| Keywords: | Energy security, Energy sector model, Climate change, Renewable energy, Technological innovation, Energy efficiency, Ethiopia, Demand and Price Analysis, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q400, Q410, Q420, Q470, |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:ubzefd:207697&r=all |
| By: | Warwick J. McKibbin; Adele Morris; Peter J. Wilcoxen |
| Abstract: | Different pollution control policies, even if they achieve the same emissions goal, could have importantly different effects on the composition of the energy sector and economic outcomes. In this paper, we use the G-Cubed model of the global economy to compare two basic policy approaches for controlling carbon emissions from power plants: a tradable performance standard and a carbon tax. We choose these two approaches because they resemble two key options facing policymakers: continue implementing a performance standard approach under the Clean Air Act or adopt an excise tax on the carbon content of fossil fuels instead. Our goal is to highlight the important high-level differences in these basic approaches, abstracting from the details of specific policy proposals. We explore a wide variety of the illustrative policies’ economic outcomes including: changes in capital stocks and electricity production across eight types of generators, changes in end-user electricity prices, changes in gross domestic product (GDP), overall welfare impacts on the household sector and, finally, one outcome represented in the G-Cubed model and few others: short to medium-run changes in aggregate employment. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2015-30&r=all |
| By: | Paula Coussy (IFPEN - IFP Energies Nouvelles - IFP Energies Nouvelles); Ludovic Raynal (IFPEN - IFP Energies Nouvelles - IFP Energies Nouvelles) |
| Abstract: | Carbon capture technology (and associated storage), applied to power plants, reduces atmospheric CO2 emissions. This article demonstrates that, in the particular case of the deployment phase of CO2 capture technology during which CO2 quota price may be low, capturing less than 90% of total CO2 emissions from power plants can be economically attractive. Indeed, for an electric power company capture technology is interesting, only if the discounted marginal cost of capture is lower than the discounted marginal cost of purchased quotas. When CO2 price is low, it is interesting to have flexibility and reduce the overall capture rate of the site, by stopping the capture system of one of the combustion trains if the site has multiple ones, or by adopting less than 90% CO2 capture rate. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01085280&r=all |
| By: | Christophe Cassen (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS); Celine Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS); Franck Lecocq (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the challenges related to the assessment of co-benefits of climate policies underpinned by the implementation of multi-objective policies which seek synergies between climate policies and other development objectives (poverty alleviation, employment, health etc.). The analysis highlights the increasing interest in co-benefits in the latest 5th IPCC report, in particular by integrated models. Nevertheless, the quantified evaluation of co-benefits is still confronted to several methodological limitations which reduce the scope of co-benefits, particularly at the global level. In a growing context of climate-development approaches in climate negotiations, this article insists on the need to also assess cobenefits of other policies which induce a significant part of GHG emissions. Considering climate policies focused only on Greehouse Gases emissions reduction limits the range of policy instruments to carbon taxation, tradable carbon emissions permits or dedicated mitigation and adaptation funds. This also hinders the integration of climate objectives in non-climate policies. Analyzing impacts of development policies on Green Gases emissions in the form of co-benefits requires to broaden the range of policy instruments and to take into account other drivers of emissions such as land dynamics. Including these mechanisms in integrated models therefore represents new scientific frontiers for integrated models in the coming years. |
| Abstract: | Cet article 1 examine les enjeux sous-jacents à l'évaluation des cobénéfices des politiques climatiques dans le cadre de la mise en oeuvre de politiques multi-objectifs, au sein lesquelles des synergies sont recherchées entre la lutte contre le changement climatique et des objectifs de développement (emploi, santé, sortie de la pauvreté, etc.). L'analyse du cinquième rapport du groupe III du GIEC montre en effet un intérêt grandissant dans la littérature pour les évaluations quantifiées des cobénéfices, en particulier à l'aide de modèles numériques intégrés. Néanmoins, l'évaluation quantifiée à une échelle globale des cobénéfices est confrontée à des difficultés d'ordre méthodologique qui expliquent l'écart entre les pratiques des modélisateurs et la vision théorique des économistes qui repose sur l'analyse coûts-bénéfices. L'article revient enfin sur la nécessité d'élargir le champ d'investigation de l'évaluation des cobénéfices aux politiques non climatiques qui déterminent une part importante des émissions de GES, et constituent un des enjeux majeurs des approches intégrées climat-développement qui montent en puissance dans les négociations climat en cours. Abstract – Co-benefits of climate policies: a potential keystone of climate negotiations? This paper analyzes the challenges related to the assessment of co-benefits of climate policies underpinned by the implementation of multi-objective policies which seek synergies between climate policies and other development objectives (poverty alleviation, employment, health etc.). The analysis highlights the increasing interest in co-benefits in the latest 5th IPCC report, in particular by integrated models. Nevertheless, the quantified evaluation of co-benefits is still confronted to several methodological limitations which reduce the scope of co-benefits, particularly at the global level. In a growing context of climate-development approaches in climate negotiations, this article insists on the need to also assess co-benefits of other policies which induce a significant part of GHG emissions. Considering climate policies focused only on Greehouse Gases emissions reduction limits the range of policy instruments to carbon taxation, tradable carbon emissions permits or dedicated mitigation and adaptation funds. This also hinders the integration of climate objectives in non-climate policies. Analyzing impacts of development policies on Green Gases emissions in the form of co-benefits requires to broaden the range of policy instruments and to take into account other drivers of emissions such as land dynamics. Including these mechanisms in integrated models therefore represents new scientific frontiers for integrated models in the coming years. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01180076&r=all |
| By: | Aurélien SAUSSAY (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Over the past decade, the rapid increase in shale gas and shale oil production in the United States has profoundly changed energy markets in North America, and has led to a significant decrease in American natural gas prices. The possible existence of large shale deposits in Europe, mainly in France, Poland and the United Kingdom, has fostered speculation on whether the "shale revolution", and its accompanying macroeconomic impacts, could be duplicated in Europe. However, a number of uncertainties, notably geological, technological and regulatory, make this possibility unclear. We present a techno‐economic model, SHERPA (SHale Exploitation and Recovery Projection and Analysis), to analyze the main determinants of the profitability of shale wells and plays. We calibrate our model using production data from the leading American shale plays. We use SHERPA to estimate three shale gas production scenarios exploring different sets of geological and technical hypotheses for the largest potential holder of shale gas deposits in Europe, France. Even considering that the geology of the potential French shale deposits is favorable to commercial extraction, we find that under assumptions calibrated on U.S. production data, natural gas could be produced at a high breakeven price of $8.6 per MMBtu, and over a 45 year timeframe have a net present value of $19.6 billion – less than 1% of 2012 French GDP. However, the specificities of the European context, notably high deposit depth and stricter environmental regulations, could increase drilling costs and further decrease this low profitability. We find that a 40% premium over American drilling costs would make shale gas extraction uneconomical. Absent extreme well productivity, it appears very difficult for shale gas extraction to have an impact on European energy markets comparable to the American shale revolution. |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01140573&r=all |
| By: | Prudence Dato (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - Université de Savoie) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze the optimal energy transition of a two-sector economy (energy and final goods) with exhaustible oil reserves, a renewable source of energy and a pollution threat. The latter corresponds to a pollution threshold above which a part of the capital is lost (following flooding for instance). We show that the optimal energy transition path may correspond to a corner regime in which the economy starts using both resources, then crosses the pollution threshold and therefore loses a part of its capital. At the end, the sole adoption of the renewable energy is optimal only in the long run. This result is in line with the asymptotic energy transition arguments stating that the transition to "clean" energy may happen only in the long run. We also show that economy reduces the use of energy resource as long as the productivity of capital and energy services is high. Therefore , public policies should promote investments in energy innovation that targets productive sector, home appliances and buildings and helps to save both money and energy. We extend the present model to allow for additional investment in energy saving technologies. Our main results show that this additional investment favours the energy transition in the sense that it increases the time within which the economy may experience the catastrophe and the welfare of the society. For policy implications, economic instruments such as taxes on "dirty" energy, subsidies on "clean" energy or incentives for energy saving technologies need to be implemented in order to promote the energy transition. This is particularly important for developing countries that mostly rely on polluting energy resources and are the most vulnerable to climate change. But those economic instruments should be carefully designed in line with the asymptotic energy transition result. |
| Date: | 2015–07–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01172146&r=all |
| By: | Igor Shishlov (Mission Climat de la Caisse des Dépôts - Carbon Offsets, Agriculture and Forestry Unit - Groupe caisse des dépots); Valentin Bellassen (Mission Climat de la Caisse des Dépôts - Carbon Offsets, Agriculture and Forestry Unit - Groupe caisse des dépots) |
| Abstract: | The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) facilitated the emergence and deployment of low-cost greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement technologies such as destruction of industrial gases and capturing methane from landfills and coal mines. Some of these technologies are now ripe to “graduate” from the CDM into other, more mainstream, economic tools. The first such step was taken in September 2013 when the G20 leaders agreed to phase out HFCs – highly potent greenhouse gases – including HFC-23 that was the focus of 19 CDM projects. A potential HFC-23 abatement fund under the Montreal Protocol could reduce up to 1.8 Gt CO2e by 2020 at a cost of under US$0.2 per ton of CO2e, i.e. much cheaper than the price paid to CDM projects through carbon crediting. The next potential candidate technology to “graduate” from the CDM is the abatement of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in the chemical industry, which have already been placed on the agenda of the Montreal Protocol. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01151911&r=all |
| By: | Claire Bergaentzlé (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier); Cédric Clastres (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier); Haikel Khalfallah (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier) |
| Abstract: | In this article, we study the impacts of loadshedding in an interconnected electricity market. We show that this drop in electricity consumption improves energy (cost of electricity) and environmental (decrease in greenhouse gas emissions) efficiencies. These efficiency gains are an increasing function of the size of load-shedding but with decreasing rates. However, marginal benefits decrease with growing rates of load shedding. This result shows that simple and inexpensive response tools should be prefered, especially if a high risk of loadshifting effect exists. |
| Abstract: | Dans cet article, nous étudions les effets d’un effacement de consommation électrique dans un marché interconnecté. Nous montrons que cette réduction induit des gains en efficacités énergétiques (réduction des coûts de l’énergie) et environnementales (réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre). Ces gains en efficacités sont croissants avec le niveau de réduction de la demande électrique. Cependant, les gains supplémentaires liés à l’augmentation des consommations effacées sont de moins en moins importants au fur et à mesure que l’effacement croît. Ce résultat suggère une préférence pour la mise en place d’outils de maîtrise de la demande simples et moins coûteux, notamment lorsqu’il existe un fort risque de reports des consommations effacées |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01137266&r=all |
| By: | Vêlayoudom Marimoutou (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université); Manel Soury (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | We examine the dependence between the volatility of the prices of the carbon dioxide "CO2" emissions with the volatility of one of their fundamental components, the energy prices. The dependence between the returns will be approached by a particular class of copula, the Stochastic Autoregressive Copulas (SCAR), which is a time varying copula that was first introduced by Hafner and Manner (2012)[1] in which the parameter driving the dynamic of the copula follows a stochastic autoregressive process. The standard likelihood method will be used together with Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS) method, to evaluate the integral with a large dimension in the expression of the likelihood function. The main result suggests that the dynamics of the dependence between the volatility of the CO2 emission prices and the volatility of energy returns, coal, natural gas and Brent oil prices, do vary over time, although not much in stable periods but rise noticeably during the period of crisis and turmoils. |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01148746&r=all |
| By: | James M. Sallee; Sarah West; Wei Fan |
| Abstract: | Debate about the appropriate design of energy policy hinges critically on whether consumers might undervalue energy efficiency, due to myopia or some other manifestation of limited rationality. We contribute to this debate by measuring consumers' willingness to pay for fuel economy using a novel identification strategy and high quality microdata from wholesale used car auctions. We leverage differences in future fuel costs across otherwise identical vehicles that have different current mileage, and therefore different remaining lifetimes. By seeing how price differences across high and low mileage vehicles of different fuel economies change in response to shocks to the price of gasoline, we estimate the relationship between vehicle prices and future fuel costs. Our data suggest that used automobile prices move one for one with changes in present discounted future fuel costs, which implies that consumers fully value fuel economy. |
| JEL: | H23 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21441&r=all |
| By: | René Aïd (FiME Lab - Laboratoire de Finance des Marchés d'Energie - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine - CREST - EDF R&D); Pierre Gruet (LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - CNRS - UP7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6); Huyên Pham (LPMA - Laboratoire de Probabilités et Modèles Aléatoires - CNRS - UP7 - Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 - UPMC - Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6, ENSAE Paris-Tech & CREST, Laboratoire de Finance et d'Assurance - ENSAE Paris-Tech & CREST) |
| Abstract: | We consider the problem of optimal trading for a power producer in the context of intraday electricity markets. The aim is to minimize the imbalance cost induced by the random residual demand in electricity, i.e. the consumption from the clients minus the production from renewable energy. For a simple linear price impact model and a quadratic criterion, we explicitly obtain approximate optimal strategies in the intraday market and thermal power generation, and exhibit some remarkable properties of the trading rate. Furthermore, we study the case when there are jumps on the demand forecast and on the intraday price, typically due to error in the prediction of wind power generation. Finally, we solve the problem when taking into account delay constraints in thermal power production. |
| Date: | 2015–01–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01104829&r=all |
| By: | Frédéric Branger (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS, AgroParisTech); Oskar Lecuyer (Department of Economics and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research - University of Bern); Philippe Quirion (CNRS, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS) |
| Abstract: | The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), presented as the " flagship " of European climate policy, is subject to many criticisms from different stakeholders: it does not reduce carbon emissions nor generate enough low-carbon innovation, it induces competitiveness losses and carbon leakage, its distributional effects are unfair and finally, it is susceptible to fraud. We review these criticisms and recognize that: abatement is real (though small), innovation is insufficient, competitiveness losses and carbon leakage did not seem to take place, distributional effects have indeed been unfair and fraud has been important. Some of these problems could have been avoided. They can still be corrected by reforming the ETS through the introduction of price limits and by developing complementary policies, both because the ETS reform may fail and because the ETS cannot address all the relevant market failures. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01137875&r=all |
| By: | Christoph Böhringer (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Markus Bortolamedi (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Energy security ranks high on the policy agenda of many countries. To improve on energy security, governments undertake regulatory measures for promoting renewable energy, increasing energy efficiency, or curbing carbon dioxide emissions. The impacts of such measures on energy security are typically monitored by means of so-called energy security indicators. In this paper, we show that the common use of wide-spread energy security indicators falls short of providing a meaningful metric. Regulatory measures to improve on energy security trigger ambiguous effects across energy security indicators. We conclude that a major pitfall of energy security indicators is the lack of a rigorous microeconomic foundation. |
| Keywords: | energy security, energy security indicators, computable general equilibrium analysis |
| JEL: | D58 Q48 |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:381&r=all |
| By: | Maojiao Ye; Guoqiang Hu |
| Abstract: | In this paper, an aggregate game approach is proposed for the modeling and analysis of energy consumption control in smart grid. Since each electricity user's cost function depends on the aggregate load, which is unknown to the end users, an aggregate load estimator is employed to estimate it. Based on the communication among the users about their estimations on the aggregate load, Nash equilibrium seeking strategies are proposed for the electricity users. By using singular perturbation analysis and Lyapunov stability analysis, a local convergence result to the Nash equilibrium is presented for energy consumption game that may have multiple Nash equilibria. For energy consumption game with unique Nash equilibrium, it is shown that the players' strategies converge to the Nash equilibrium non-locally. More specially, if the unique Nash equilibrium is an inner Nash equilibrium, the convergence rate is quantified. Energy consumption game with stubborn players is investigated. Convergence to the best response strategies for the rational players is ensured. Numerical examples are provided to verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods. |
| Date: | 2015–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1508.02636&r=all |
| By: | Eléazar Zerbo (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - UN - Université de Nantes) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effect of economic growth, energy consumption and foreign trade on CO2 emissions on eight Sub-Sahara African countries, namely Botswana, Cameroon, Gabon, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Senegal, South Africa and Togo. The ARDL bound testing approach to cointegration developed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) is used to test the long run relationship among the variables. Our findings show the existence of a long run relationship only in South Africa and Togo. The results show that energy consumption has an effect in increasing CO2 emissions in Botswana, Kenya, South Africa and Togo in the short term. Trade openness is not sufficient to improve environment quality in Kenya while it does in South Africa. Furthermore, we apply the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) Granger causality test, and find that Kenya is dependent on energy while economic growth and energy consumption have a neutral relationship in Cameroon, Senegal, South Africa and Togo, suggesting that an energy efficiency policy may be implemented. However, the econometric results should be interpreted with care, as the variables are found to be weakly stable over the study period. |
| Date: | 2015–01–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01110769&r=all |
| By: | Christoph Böhringer (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Edward J. Balistreri (Colorado School of Mines, USA); Thomas F. Rutherford (University of Wisconsin; USA) |
| Abstract: | Alternative perspectives on the structure of international trade have important implications for the evaluation of climate policy. In this paper we assess climate policy in the context of three important alternative trade formulations. First is a Heckscher-Ohlin model based on trade in homogeneous products, which establishes the traditional<br>neoclassical view on comparative advantage. Second is an Armington model based on regionally differentiated goods, which constitutes a popular specifcation for numerical simulations of trade policy. Third is a Melitz model based on monopolistic-competition and firm heterogeneity. This heterogeneous-firms framework is adopted in many contemporary theoretic and empirical investigations in international trade. As we show in this paper, the three alternative trade formulations have important implications for the assessment of climate policy with respect to competitive effects for energy-intensive production (and hence carbon leakage) as well as the transmission of policy burdens across countries. |
| Keywords: | Heterogeneous firms, carbon leakage, competitiveness |
| JEL: | F12 F18 Q54 Q |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:383&r=all |
| By: | Ali Bennasr (SYFACTE - University of Sfax, Tunisia - faculté des lettres et sciences humaines de Sfax); Éric Verdeil (EVS - UMR 5600 Environnement Ville Société - ENSAL - Ecole nationale supérieure d'architecture de Lyon - Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines de Saint-Etienne - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE] - ENS Lyon - École normale supérieure - Lyon) |
| Abstract: | STEG, the Tunisian public company for electricity and gas, has been created in 1962 and has since operated as a major state tool for national integration and social and economic development. Rural and urban electrification is among its main achievements. Since the 1990's, the company has followed a more commercial-oriented approach, with the aim that tariff reflect the full production cost and to prevent the growth of the manpower. Such a contractualization policy with the state can be regarded as a corporatization policy. With the Tunisian revolution in 2011, this policy is being challenged. On the one hand, STEG has hired numerous new employees ; on the other hand, it is under financial pressure due to non-payment and agressions. The energy transition toward renewable energy, and pressures from international money funders, push for a liberalization of the electricity sector at a time where increasing energy demand makes strong investments necessary. STEG is a turning of its history. |
| Abstract: | La Société tunisienne d'électricité et de gaz (STEG), créée en 1962, opère depuis lors comme un outil majeur d'intégration nationale et de développement économique et social au service de l'Etat tunisien. Parmi ses principales réalisations figurent l'électrification urbaine et rurale. Depuis les années 1990, la STEG a adopté une orientation plus commerciale, avec l'objectif que son tarif corresponde à son coût de production intégral, et de limiter la croissance de son effectif. Cette politique, connue sous le nom de contractualisation, peut être décrite comme une forme de corporatisation. Avec la révolution de 2011, cette politique est soumise à plusieurs défis. D'une part, la STEG a recruté ou régularisé un nombre important d'employés. D'autre part, elle se trouve sous pression financière à cause du non-paiement et d'agressions contre son personnel. La transition énergétique vers les énergies renouvelables et les pressions de la part des bailleurs de fonds internationaux poussent à une libéralisation du secteur électrique à un moment où la croissance de la demande énergétique impose de forts investissements. La STEG est à un tournant de son histoire. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01075947&r=all |
| By: | Romain Morel (Climat Research - Groupe caisse des dépots); Igor Shishlov (Climat Research - Groupe caisse des dépots); Valentin Bellassen (Climat Research - Groupe caisse des dépots) |
| Abstract: | The results from the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (KP) show that developed countries fulfilled their commitments through varied strategies. However, the Kyoto protocol did not manage to stabilize global GHG concentrations; furthermore its direct impact on domestic emissions reductions is unclear. Nevertheless, the KP has likely paved the way for a low-carbon transition by establishing international standards on emissions monitoring and on emission reductions projects. Yet, domestic policies – especially the EU ETS – are the main driver of emissions reductions and the principal catalyzers of private finance flows. A new, more effective, agreement would therefore need to expand its coverage, and take down the specter of “internationally binding” emission reductions commitments in order to focus on MRV requirements. Similar to Kyoto, a Paris outcome could take the form of a framework agreement setting up requirements and mechanisms with subsequent implementing agreements expected by 2020. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01151914&r=all |
| By: | Anna Creti (UP9 - Université Paris 9, Dauphine - Université Paris IX - Paris Dauphine, Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X); Alena Kotelnikova (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X); Guy Meunier (INRA - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA), Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X); Jean-Pierre Ponssard (CNRS, Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X) |
| Abstract: | This study develops a consistent framework to compare FCEV with gasoline ICE (ignition combustion engine) and applies this framework to the German market over the period 2015-2050. As such it provides for: - The formulation of a proper cost benefit analysis, including the definition of the abatement cost for the hydrogen technology; - The simulation of the results under various technological and cost assumptions; - The identification of the major conceptual issues to facilitate analytical developments. The sources used in the analysis are based on an update of previous industry studies. The main conclusion is that FCEV could be a socially beneficial alternative for decarbonizing part of the projected German car park at the horizon 2050. The corresponding abatement cost would fall in the range of 50 €/t CO2 to 60 €/t CO2. This range is higher than the current estimate for the normative cost of carbon as expressed in Quinet (2009 and 2013), which is around 30€/t in 2015. Still the gap is not out of hand. We identify the market and cost conditions that would shorten the gap. The methodology used in this study could be expanded to integrate two pending issues noted in the literature for the successful deployment of FCEV: - Making the deployment for FCEV endogenous and depending on the public and private instruments that could induce the decreasing of costs and the acceptance of the FCEV technology by consumers. - Designing an appropriate institutional framework to promote cooperation for manufacturing FCEV, producing carbon free H2 and investing in the distribution of H2. The initial sunk costs necessary for investment cannot be recouped through pure market equilibrium behavior. This study already provides an order of magnitude to quantify these issues. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01116997&r=all |
| By: | Dhaoui, Abderrazak; Audi, Mohamed; Ouled Ahmed Ben Ali, Raja |
| Abstract: | Over the years, the oil price has shown an impressive fluctuation and isn’t without signification impact on the evolution of stock market returns. Because of the complexity of stock market data, developing an efficient model for predicting linkages between macroeconomic data and stock price movement is very difficult. This study attempted to develop two robust and efficient models and compared their performance in predicting the direction of movement in the Canadian stock market. The proposed models are based on two classification techniques, artificial neural networks and Support Vector Machines. Considering together world oil production and world oil prices in order to supervise for oil supply and oil demand shocks, strong evidence of sensitivity of stock price movement direction to the oil price shocks specifications is found. Experimental results showed that average performance of artificial neural networks model is around 96.75% that is significantly better than that of the Support Vector Machines reaching 95.67%. |
| Keywords: | Oil price; Stock price movement; Oil supply shocks; Oil demand shocks; Artificial neural networks model, Support Vector Machines. |
| JEL: | G12 G17 |
| Date: | 2015–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:66029&r=all |
| By: | Philippe Menanteau (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier); Odile Blanchard (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier) |
| Abstract: | This paper compares the energy systems implemented in eco-districts of several European cities over the last twenty years. It aims to identify the main differences and build a typology based on technical criteria (energy technologies and sources) as well as governance ones (decision process and role of future dwellers). The major differences that are highlighted relate to energy performance targets, the share of renewable energy sources in the fuel mix, and the type of energy-efficient technologies used. Among the latter, some have already been used for a relatively long-time, whereas others are emerging or at an experimental stage. In our sample, the French eco-districts, although younger than most of their European counterparts, do not come out as ambitious and innovative as some European ones that were built in the 1990s. |
| Abstract: | Ce papier propose une comparaison des systèmes énergétiques mis en œuvre dans les écoquartiers réalisés dans plusieurs villes européennes au cours des 20 dernières années. L'objectif est d'identifier les principales différences et tenter d'établir une typologie s'appuyant sur des critères techniques (nature des technologies et sources d'énergie) mais aussi de gouvernance (mode de décision et rôle des futurs habitants). On observe entre les écoquartiers des différences significatives entre les objectifs de performance énergétique ou la proportion d'énergies renouvelables utilisée. De même, les technologies mises en œuvre sont certes efficaces mais dans certains écoquartiers elles sont déjà éprouvées alors que dans d'autres, elles sont encore expérimentales ou émergentes. Dans notre échantillon, on ne retrouve pas dans les premières réalisations françaises l'ambition et le caractère innovant qui caractérisaient certains des écoquartiers européens des années 1990. |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01107771&r=all |
| By: | Christoph Böhringer (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Brita Bye; Taran Fæhn; Rosendahl Knut Einar |
| Abstract: | We investigate how carbon taxes combined with output-based rebating (OBR) in an open economy perform in interaction with the carbon policies of a large neighboring trading partner. Analytical results suggest that whether the purpose of the OBR policy is to compensate firms for carbon tax burdens or to maximize welfare (accounting for global emission reductions), the second-best OBR rate should be positive in most cases. Further, it should fall with the introduction of carbon taxation in the neighboring country, particularly if the neighbor refrains from OBR. Numerical simulations for Canada with the US as the neighboring trading partner, indicates that the impact of US policies on the second-best OBR rate will depend crucially on the purpose of the domestic OBR policies. If the aim is to restore the competitiveness of domestic emission-intensive, trade exposed (EITE) firms at the same level as before the introduction of its own carbon taxation for a given US carbon policy, we find that the domestic optimal OBR rates are relatively insensitive to the foreign carbon policies. If the aim is to compensate the firms for actions taken by the US following a Canadian carbon tax, the necessary domestic OBR rates will be lower if also the US regulates its emissions, particularly if the US refrains from OBR. If the goal is rather to increase the efficiency of Canadian policies in an economy-wide sense by accounting for carbon leakage, the US policies have but a minor reducing impact on domestic optimal OBR rates. |
| Keywords: | carbon leakage, second-best optimal carbon policies, output-based rebates |
| JEL: | Q43 Q54 H2 D61 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:382&r=all |
| By: | Elena Stolyarova (CMA - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, EDF R&D - EDF - Electricité de France); Hélène Le Cadre (CMA - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris); Dominique Osso (EDF R&D - EDF - Electricité de France); Benoit Allibe (EDF R&D - EDF - Electricité de France) |
| Abstract: | Energy retrofits are an important leverage to reduce energy consumption in dwellings, especially for space heating. In this paper, we use a discrete choice experiment on space heating for both detached houses and apartments in France. In our choice experiment, we asked 1,820 respondents, both owners and tenants, to imagine that their current space heating system had broken down and that they had to choose a new one to replace it. A multinomial logit model was used to analyze the households preferences and willingness to pay for various space heating system attributes. We found that in general households prefer renewable sources and systems, but avoid wood. Preferences for familiar technologies have a considerable impact on the probabilities of choice and could represent a significant obstacle to the development of energy-efficient equipment. Willingness to pay for attributes that control energy consumption depends on thermal comfort preferences. The more cold-sensitive the household, the more willing it is to invest to renewable energy sources and to set temperature management. |
| Date: | 2015–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01160059&r=all |
| By: | V Hovelaque (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1); L Bironneau (CREM - Centre de Recherche en Economie et Management - CNRS - Université de Caen Basse-Normandie - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1) |
| Abstract: | Currently companies are looking for solutions to reduce carbon emissions associated with their operations. Operational adjustments, such as modifications in batch sizes or order quantities, have proven to be an effective way to decrease emissions. In this paper, a novel model is proposed that takes into account the link between an inventory policy (EOQ), total carbon emissions, and both price and environmental dependent demand. In the case of an exogenous price, two optimal quantities are determined which maximize a retailer's profit and which minimize carbon emissions. Conditions that allow a company to maximize profit while minimizing emissions and mechanisms that allow a firm to maximize its profit and to decrease its carbon emissions are determined. In the case of an endogenous price, some empirical results are also discussed. When a firm optimizes its profit through both its selling price and its order quantity, some experiments match empirical observations. On the one hand, an environmental strategy is more significant for cheaper and green-labeled products. On the other hand, a public mechanism such as a carbon tax will decrease total and marginal emissions. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01103463&r=all |
| By: | Christoph Böhringer (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics); Knut Einar Rosendahl (Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås); Halvor Briseid Storrøsten (Statistics Norway, Oslo) |
| Abstract: | Unilateral climate policy induces carbon leakage through the relocation of emission-intensive and trade-exposed industries to regions with no or more lenient emission regulation. Both analytical and numerical studies suggest that emission pricing combined with border carbon adjustments may be a second-best instrument, and more cost-effective than output-based rebating, in which case domestic output is indirectly subsidized. No countries have so far imposed border carbon adjustments, while variants of output-based rebating have been implemented. In this paper we demonstrate that it is welfare improving for a region who has already implemented emission pricing along with output-based rebating for emission-intensive and trade-exposed goods to also introduce a consumption tax on these goods. Moreover, we show that combining output-based rebating with a consumption tax can be equivalent with border carbon adjustments. |
| Keywords: | Carbon leakage; output-based rebating; border carbon adjustments; consumption tax |
| JEL: | D61 H2 Q54 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:380&r=all |
| By: | Haikel Khalfallah (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier) |
| Abstract: | A super grid connecting the two shores of the Mediterranean could help Europe meet its targets for integrating renewable energy. This paper assesses the business models for building a platform for wholesale renewable energy trade via electricity corridors linking the two regions of the Mediterranean basin. We demonstrate that the optimal framework for designing the corridor project is a long-term contractual agreement to coordinate bilaterally the necessary investments. Furthermore a hybrid governance structure requiring only limited regulatory adaptation seems to be the most efficient structure for facilitating investment in the corridor’s infrastructure. |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01111432&r=all |
| By: | Huanan Li; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | China's CO2 emissions have been the focus of attention for domestic and foreign scholars. However, very few articles have analysed whether and how a reduction of China's total CO2 emissions can be achieved. This is of great significance for meeting China's future CO2 emissions reduction targets. Based on input-output decomposition analysis model and dynamic programming approach, this paper analyses the factors affecting China's total carbon emissions and discuss whether and how it could be possible for China to reduce its total CO2 emissions. The results show that carbon intensity is a major driver for the reduction of China's CO2 emissions and that the impact of industry structure on the increment of China's CO2 emissions has changed from positive to negative in recent years. Under the premise of economic growth, carbon intensity decline and industrial structure adjustment should be coordinated. A reduction in the total amount of China's CO2 emissions is difficult to achieve in the short term, but an effective development mode can be selected with some policy implications suggested. |
| Keywords: | CO2 reduction, Input-Output model, SDA, dynamic programming approach, China |
| JEL: | Q54 Q40 |
| Date: | 2014–10–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:biw:wpaper:81&r=all |
| By: | Svante MANDELL |
| Abstract: | New infrastructure projects may affect CO2 emissions and, thus, cost benefit analyses for these projects require a value to apply for CO2. This may be based on the marginal social cost of emissions or on the carbon price resulting from present and future policies. This paper argues that both approaches are necessary, but for cost benefit analysis of infrastructure projects the latter should be the primary tool. A series of complications arise when applying this principle in practice. These are discussed in the paper. Even if the complications make the implementation of the approach difficult, we argue that it is still preferable to a social cost approach. |
| Keywords: | climate change, policy, carbon value, cost-benefit analysis |
| JEL: | H54 Q51 R42 |
| Date: | 2013–12–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2013/32-en&r=all |
| By: | Mouez Fodha (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics, LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans - CNRS - UO - Université d'Orléans) |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the long-term consequences of nuclear waste storage within a general equilibrium framework. The objective is to determine the conditions for which the storage of waste, and thus the transfer of externalities towards the future, can be optimal. These conditions could explain the implementation of intergenerational externalities, justifying an intertemporal Not In My Back Yard behaviour. We first show that the choice of the policy instruments determines the feasibility of the storage policy. Indeed, economic stability imposes precise levels of the rate of storage or of the tax rate, making it possible to avoid chaotic economic dynamics. Under these specific conditions, and depending on the period at which an accident may occur and on the value of the social discount rate, we show that storing all the nuclear waste may be optimal. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseose:insu-01105358&r=all |
| By: | Céline Antonin (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | Les craintes du début de l'année de voir les cours du Brent dépasser durablement la barre des 120 dollars ne se sont pas matérialisées et le premier semestre 2013 a été marqué par une baisse des cours du baril de Brent de 116 à 103 dollars entre janvier et juin 2013. Ce fléchissement s'explique par plusieurs facteurs : la faiblesse de la demande en provenance des pays industriels, la montée en puissance de nouveaux gisements non conventionnels en Amérique du Nord, et la présence de capacités de production inutilisées au sein des pays de l'OPEP (...). |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01025084&r=all |
| By: | Mireille Ntsama Etoundi (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I) |
| Abstract: | Ce papier examine l’effet des augmentations de la rente pétrolière dans les pays voisins du Cameroun, sur la demande d’exportations de produits alimentaires en provenance du Cameroun. En utilisant le modèle de gravité de commerce sur données de panel, il ressort que les ressources pétrolières des pays frontaliers au Cameroun sont à l’origine de l’intensification des exportations camerounaises en produits alimentaires vers les pays voisins pétroliers. La sensibilité des exportations aux chocs de revenus pétroliers dans les pays partenaires commerciaux apparait significative, positive et robuste aux différentes spécifications économétriques appropriées aux données bilatérales de commerce. L’avantage comparatif du Cameroun dans la production et l’exportation de produits alimentaires dans la sous-région a été examiné, sur le plan qualitatif, par plusieurs travaux récents. Les analyses récentes concluent par exemple que le Cameroun devrait tirer profit de cette demande en produits vivriers et améliorer sa productivité agricole qui est en dessous de ses potentialités (BAD, 2009 ; OCDE, 2011). En renforçant ses capacités d’offre, la pression exercée sur les prix domestiques du fait de l’excédent de demande en provenance de la sous-région devrait graduellement s’atténuer tout en renforçant les gains directs liés de l’activité commerciale transfrontalière. |
| Date: | 2015–05–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01027500&r=all |
| By: | Burcu Afyonoglu Fazlioglu (TOBB-ETU University Turkey - [-]); Agustin Pérez-Barahona (ECO-PUB - Economie Publique - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - AgroParisTech, Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X); Cagri Saglam (Bilkent University - Bilkent University) |
| Abstract: | We study the implications of assuming diff erent energy intensities for physical capital accumulation and fi nal good production in an overlapping generations (OLG) resource economy. Diff ering from the standard OLG literature, but consistently with the empirical evidence, physical capital accumulation is assumed to be relatively more energy-intensive than consumption. Focusing on exhaustible resources, we fi nd that OLG equilibria can exhibit a "non-classical behaviour": our model can generate complex dynamics where extraction may increase during some periods and decrease afterwards. As a consequence, in contrast to the classical response predicted by the standard approach, resource prices may not increase monotonically. This result points out the importance of the assumptions about energy intensity considered in the literature. |
| Date: | 2014–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01074201&r=all |
| By: | Aristide Mabali (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Bobdingam Bonkeri (INSEED - Institut national de la statistique, des études économiques et démographiques, Ndjamena, Tchad - Institut national de la statistique - des études économiques et démographiques - Ndjamena - Tchad) |
| Abstract: | Oil resources have enabled Chad to increase public financing for education and to achieve high economic growth rates. Regarding these policies to supporting the education sector, we assume that the standard of living of households does not explain the school attendance. We test empirically this hypothesis using data from the MICS conducted in 2010 and Education Statistical Yearbooks. Using a bivariate probit model, the results show that school attendance and child labor depend of households’ standard of living after controlling for other relevant characteristics. In particular, a child from a non-poor household has a lower (higher) probability to be involved in the child labor (enrolled in school) compared to a child from a poor household. Although these results are classical in the economic literature, they are rather surprising in the case of Chad regarding the priority given to education by authorities. We identify four possible explanations, (i) the low level of these investments compared to international standards; (ii) the loss of public expenditures, caused by institutional factors; (iii) the misallocation of educational infrastructures and human resources by region and (iv) an inequity sharing of spin-offs of economic growth induced by oil resources. These results raise the issue of the sustainability of the Chadian economy after oil. |
| Date: | 2014–11–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01087450&r=all |
| By: | Aristide MABALI (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS); Moundigbaye MANTOBAYE (University of Canterbury - University of Canterbury - University of Canterbury) |
| Abstract: | In 2003, Chadian authorities passed the Law N° 001/PR/1999, establishing rules for allocating and managing the expected oil royalties from the Doba Oil project. The oil producing region’s share amounts to 5% of oil revenues under this law in addition to other benefits related to its status in order to mitigate negative effects of the oil project. Many field studies attempted to assess poverty situation in this region. Yet, no rigorous method of impact assessment has been employed. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the poverty profile in this region, by combining a double difference estimator with propensity score matching methods. Using data from the «Survey on Consumption and the Informal Sector in Chad» carried out in 2003 and 2011, our results tend to show that the monetary poverty increased in the oil producing region compared to control regions. We find no evidence that the nonmonetary poverty decreased in the producing region, as the important investments in social infrastructures could have implicitly suggested. In addition, we notice that household expenditures for temptation goods increased in this region compared to the others. Finally, we observe that there are spillover effects. Especially the neighboring regions of the oil producing region are more likely to experience poverty. These results raise the issue of the efficiency of the law and of its enlargement to newly discovered oil fields. |
| Date: | 2015–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01161624&r=all |
| By: | Elena Stolyarova (CMA - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris, EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF Recherche et Développement); Hélène Le Cadre (CMA - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris); Dominique Osso (EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF Recherche et Développement); Benoit Allibe (EDF R&D - EDF R&D - EDF Recherche et Développement); Nadia Maïzi (CMA - Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées - MINES ParisTech - École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an empirical analysis of the supply-side constraints that impact household choices of space heating systems in French dwellings. Based on data from the 2006 National Housing Survey and the 2013 Household Survey, we estimate discrete choice models using socio-demographic, dwelling and spatial characteristics as determinants of choice. In order to capture the supply-side constraints, we perform a post-estimation clustering based on the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, which allows us to determine the groups of households that are most likely to choose each considered space heating system. The results suggest that for 2006, households living in individual houses preferred to heat space using an individual boiler, whereas those living in apartments opted for direct electric heating. In 2013 all households preferred direct electric heating, and wood heating became their second choice. The discrete choice models do not show a significant change in behavior from 2006 to 2013. The post-estimation clustering indicates that many households were strongly constrained by the conditions and characteristics of their living space in 2006. The mean probability of choosing direct electric heating or a boiler was more than 0.8 for 21% of households living in houses and for 36% living in apartments. Thus, these households did not seem to have a choice. In 2013 the supply-side constraints were weaker. The highest mean probability (0.755) is observed in the group opting for an individual boiler. We also observe an increase in the popularity of heat pump and wood heating systems. |
| Date: | 2015–02–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01113230&r=all |
| By: | Bernard Caillaud (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)); Gabrielle Demange (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA) - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the joint design of fiscal and cap-and-trade instruments in climate policies under uncertainty. Whether the optimal mechanism is a mixed policy (with some firms subject to a tax and others to a cap-and-trade) or a uniform one (with all firms subject to the same instrument) depends on parameters reflecting preferences, production, and, most importantly, the stochastic structure of the shocks affecting the economy. This framework is then used to address the issue of the non-cooperative design of ETS in various areas worldwide and to characterize the resulting inefficiency and excess in emission. We provide a strong Pareto argument in favor of merging ETS of different regions in the world. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:psewpa:halshs-01112185&r=all |
| By: | Karine Constant (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the economic implications of an environmental policy when we take into account the life expectancy of heterogeneous agents. In a framework where everyone suffers from pollution, but health status depends also on individual human capital, we find that the economy may be stuck in a trap where inequalities persistently grow, when the initial level of pollution is too high. Therefore, we study whether a tax on pollution associated with an investment in pollution abatement can be used to reduce inequalities and to improve endogenous growth. We obtain that a tighter environmental policy may allow the economy to escape the inequality trap and hence to converge to a long-term equilibrium without inequality, while it enhances the long-term growth rate. However, if inequalities or pollution are initially too high, such a result does not hold for reasonable tax rates. |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01174052&r=all |
| By: | Olivier Baverel (Matériaux et Structures Architecturés (MSA) - NAVIER UMR 8205 - Laboratoire Navier - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - Université Paris Est (UPE) - CNRS); Gilles Debizet (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier); Stephane Ploix (G-SCOP_GCSP - GCSP - G-SCOP - Laboratoire des sciences pour la conception, l'optimisation et la production - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier - Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble (INPG) - CNRS) |
| Abstract: | Pour répondre aux enjeux de la transition énergétique, des chercheurs en Sciences Humaines et Sociales, en Sciences pour l’Ingénieur et en Architecture ont collaboré depuis 2013 dans le cadre de l'atelier «Prospective Créative Énergie Habitat Territoires» soutenu par l’ARC Energie de la Région Rhône-Alpes. Ils ont identifié les questionnements sociétaux et professionnels qui nécessitent des approches interdisciplinaires. Des projets de recherche ont été esquissés. Présentés à une cinquantaine d'acteurs de la R&D et de l'innovation urbaine, ils ont fait l'objet de fiches thématiques commentées par des grands témoins : - Coordination des systèmes énergétiques dans les espaces urbanisés - Nouveaux services pour le secteur du bâtiment - Résilience des bâtiments, des réseaux et du territoire - Conception collaborative centrée utilisateur - Généralisation des innovations |
| Date: | 2014–10–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01070206&r=all |
| By: | Claire Salmon (IREGE - Institut de Recherche en Gestion et en Economie - Université de Savoie); Jérémy Tanguy (GAINS - Groupe d'Analyse des Itinéraires et des Niveaux Salariaux - UM - Université du Maine, TEPP - Travail, Emploi et Politiques Publiques - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - CNRS) |
| Abstract: | Using recent household survey data, this paper investigates how electrification affects female and male labor supply decisions within rural households in Nigeria. Focusing on matched husband-wife data, we propose to consider dependence in spouses’ labor supply decisions and to address adequately zero hours of work using a copula-based bivariate hurdle model. In parallel, we opt for an instrumental variable strategy to identify the causal effect of electrification. Our findings show that such dependence is strongly at work and critical to consider when assessing the impact of electrification on spouses’ labor supply outcomes. Electrification is found to increase the working time of both spouses in a separate examination of their labor supply, while the joint analysis emphasizes only a positive effect of electrification on husbands’ working time. However, whatever the econometric specification, we find no significant effect of electricity on spouses’ employment probability. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01100275&r=all |
| By: | Catherine Locatelli (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier) |
| Abstract: | La crise entre la Russie et l’UE à propos de l’Ukraine est venue rappeler combien les interdépendances en matière de gaz naturel entre ces trois acteurs étaient importantes. L’Ukraine se positionne en effet comme une voie de transit majeur du gaz russe à destination de l’Europe. Au-delà des enjeux politiques actuels, de fortes incompréhensions persistent entre ces trois acteurs quant à la manière de structurer ces échanges en matière de gaz naturel. Ceux-ci ont en effet été profondément déstabilisés par la mise en place d’un modèle concurrentiel d’organisation des marchés gaziers de l’UE. Cette structure de gouvernance est en effet en profonde contradiction avec le modèle plus intégré défendu par la Russie. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01174452&r=all |
| By: | Damien Sans (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université); Sonia Schwartz (CERDI - Centre d'études et de recherches sur le developpement international - CNRS - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I); Hubert Stahn (AMSE - Aix-Marseille School of Economics - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS) - Ecole Centrale Marseille (ECM) - AMU - Aix-Marseille Université) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study an eco-industry providing an environmental service to a competitive polluting sector. We show that even if this eco-industry is highly concentrated, a standard environmental policy based on a Pigouvian tax or a pollution permit market reaches the first-best outcome, challenging the Tinbergen rule. To illustrate this point, we first consider an upstream monopoly selling eco-services to a representative polluting firm. We progressively extend our result to heterogeneous downstream polluters and heterogeneous upstream Cournot competitors. Finally, we underline some limits of this result. It does not hold under the assumption of abatement goods or downstream market power. In this last case, we obtain Barnett's result. |
| Date: | 2015–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01182200&r=all |
| By: | Catherine Locatelli (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier) |
| Abstract: | L'augmentation des accords énergétiques (pétrole et gaz naturel) entre la Chine et la Russie témoigne d’évolutions profondes dans la politique énergétique de la Russie comme dans celle de la Chine. Signés entre deux pays structurants des marchés mondiaux d’hydrocarbures, leur portée peut s’avérer stratégique . Pour les deux parties, ces échanges pétroliers et gaziers s’inscrivent dans une stratégie de diversification qui vise à répondre à des préoccupations de sécurité énergétique dans ses deux dimensions offre et demande. Ils répondent en premier lieu à des préoccupations d'ordre économique. Mais compte tenu de l’importance des pays impliqués, on peut se demander s’ils ne pourraient être le prélude à une nouvelle forme de gouvernance énergétique qui s’imposerait comme une alternative au modèle concurrentiel et multilatéral promu par les Etats Unis et l’Europe. Les comportements de ces deux types d’acteurs seront sans doute déterminants de la configuration que pourrait prendre une structure de gouvernance énergétique internationale. |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01142101&r=all |
| By: | Sandrine Mathy (équipe EDDEN - PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - CNRS - Grenoble 2 UPMF - Université Pierre Mendès France - IEPG - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble - Grenoble 1 UJF - Université Joseph Fourier) |
| Abstract: | Two key debates are set to occupy the international agenda in coming months. On the one hand the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris will try to limit global warming to 2°C. On the other hand countries are due to set a new set of Millennium Development Goals for 2030. So far these two processes have remained separate. However the stakes are inextricably connected particularly in developing countries. This article presents a proposal before the Paris Conference that aims at reconciling development strategies and particularly poverty alleviation, climate mitigation and adaptation. This mechanism for climate and development convergence (MCDC) is based on sectoral basic needs indicators and on an output based aid approach. It relies on a voluntary participation and on a sectoral and flexible approach. |
| Abstract: | L’année 2015 voit la conjonction de deux événements majeurs sur la scène internationale : la Conférence internationale sur le changement climatique et la négociation pour l’adoption de nouveaux objectifs de développement durable incluant la lutte contre la pauvreté. Ces deux dossiers ont été jusqu’à présent globalement traités de manière distincte, pourtant, les enjeux de développement ainsi que les réponses à apporter pour éviter une dérive climatique sont liés de manière inextricable, tout spécialement dans les pays en développement. Cet article présente une proposition en amont de la Conférence de Paris de 2015 qui ambitionne de réconcilier stratégies de développement, politiques climatiques et adaptation, en ciblant et soutenant une mise en œuvre effective des synergies entre ces deux champs de manière à ériger en priorité absolue la satisfaction des besoins fondamentaux et à dissiper le contentieux entre pays industrialisés et pays en développement sur l’engagement des pays en développement dans la lutte contre le changement climatique. Ce mécanisme de mise en convergence du climat et du développement (MCCD) promeut une approche basée sur une participation volontaire, sectorielle et flexible et s’appuie sur des indicateurs sectoriels de satisfaction des besoins fondamentaux et sur une aide de type output-based. |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01074793&r=all |
| By: | Pierre Picard (Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS - Polytechnique - X) |
| Abstract: | La production d'électricité au moyen de l'énergie nucléaire est une activité dont on ne peut ignorer les risques et elle doit faire lobjet d'un calcul économique approprié. Les spécificités du risque nucléaire justifient que le décideur public incorpore une valorisation adéquate de ces risques dans la balance des coûts et des bénéfices : il sagit d'un risque qui n'est que partiellement mutualisable, qui a une dimension systémique, dont les aléas sous-jacents sont imparfaitement probabilisables, et qui peut conduire à des conséquences de nature catastrophique sur le très long terme. Ces différentes caractéristiques donnent au risque nucléaire une dimension spécifique qui l'éloigne des principes usuels du calcul économique public et chacune d'entre-elles justifie une valorisation spécifique de ce risque dont la probabilité est faible ou très faible, mais dont les conséquences potentielles sont de très forte intensité. |
| Date: | 2014–10–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01074196&r=all |