nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2015‒04‒19
38 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Energy Subsidies in Latin America and the Caribbean: Stocktaking and Policy Challenges By Gabriel Di Bella; Lawrence Norton; Joseph Ntamatungiro; Sumiko Ogawa; Issouf Samaké; Marika Santoro
  2. Made in Mexico: Energy Reform and Manufacturing Growth By Jorge Alvarez; Fabian Valencia
  3. Transition towards renewable energy Co-ordination and technological strategies in the Swedish pulp and paper industry 1973-1990 By Bergquist, Ann-Kristin; Söderholm, Kristina
  4. Prospects for the development of prosumer energy in Poland By Magdalena Zajaczkowska
  5. What is the target battery cost at which Battery Electric Vehicles are socially cost competitive? By David Newbery; Goran Strbac
  6. Is Belgium Overshooting in its Policy Support to Cut the Cost of Capital of Renewable Sources of Energy ? By Antonio Estache; Anne-Sophie Steichen
  7. The Japanese Electricity System 15 months After March 11th 2011 By A.Haarscher; M. Bruner; J. Doblas; A. Fargere; S.F. Ashley; W.J. Nuttall
  8. Evidence on Wind Farm Performance Decline in the UK By Green, RJ; Staffell, I
  9. Distributed Generation: Opportunities for Distribution Network Operators, Wider Society and Generators By Karim L. Anaya; Michael G. Pollitt
  10. Are Fundamentals Enough? Explaining Price Variations in the German Day-Ahead and Intraday Power Market By Christian Pape; Christoph Weber
  11. Electricity Demand and Basic Needs: Empirical Evidence from China’s Households By Xiaoping He; David Reiner
  12. Features of energy saving potential in household evaluation By Zaneta Simanaviciene; Andzej Volochovic; Akvile Cibinskiene
  13. On The Optimal Design of Demand Response Policies By Brown, David P.; Sappington, David E. M.
  14. Sectoral Interfuel Substitution in Canada: An Application of NQ Flexible Functional Forms By Ali Jadidzadeh; Apostolos Serletis
  15. Critical Analysis of Stakeholders Involvement and Environmental Impact: Conversion of Crude Oil Based Auto Rickshaws to CNG in Ahmedabad By Sapovadia, Vrajlal; Patel, Sweta; Patel, Akash
  16. Promoting or restricting competition?: Regulation of the UK retail residential energy market since 2008 By Stephen Littlechild
  17. Reform of the Coal Sector in an Open Economy: The Case of China By Shengbao Ji; Yin-Fang Zhang; Tooraj Jamasb
  18. Oil supply and demand shocks and stock price: Evidence for some OECD countries By Dhaoui, Abderrazak; Saidi, Youssef
  19. Employment Impacts of Upstream Oil and Gas Investment in the United States By Mark Agerton; Peter Hartley; Kenneth Medlock III; Ted Temzelides
  20. Malaysia: 2014 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malaysia By International Monetary Fund
  21. Trust and Norwegian-Russian Energy Relations By Marc Ozawa
  22. On the removal of energy products subsidies in an importing oil country: impacts on prices in Morocco. By Bentour, El Mostafa
  23. Malaysia: Selected Issues Paper By International Monetary Fund
  24. Angola: Technical Assistant Report - Angola - Fuel Price Subsidy Reform the Way Forward By International Monetary Fund
  25. Risk Analysis of Energy Performance Contracting Projects in Russia: An Analytic Hierarchy Process Approach By Garbuzova-Schlifter, Maria; Madlener, Reinhard
  26. Productivity Effects of Air Pollution: Evidence from Professional Soccer By Lichter, Andreas; Pestel, Nico; Sommer, Eric
  27. Vog: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Health Costs of Particulates and SO2 By De Paula, Áureo; Halliday, Timothy J.; Lynham, John
  28. A Profit-Maximizing Approach for Transmission Expansion Planning Using a Revenue-Cap Incentive Mechanism By Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh; Juan Rosellón; Steven A. Gabriel
  29. Socio-technical transitions and policy change - Advocacy coalitions in Swiss energy policy By Jochen Markard; Marco Suter; Karin Ingold
  30. Exporters and the Environment By J. Scott Holladay
  31. Impacts of Carbon Prices on Indicators of Competitiveness: A Review of Empirical Findings By Johanna Arlinghaus
  33. Track-and-Trade: A liability approach to climate policy By Etienne Billette de Villemeur; Justin Leroux
  34. Splitting the Difference: Can Limited Coordination Achieve a Fair Distribution of the Global Climate Financing Effort? By Jonathan Pickering; Frank Jotzo; Peter J. Wood
  35. Vog: Using Volcanic Eruptions to Estimate the Health Costs of Particulates and SO2 By Timothy Halliday; John Lynham; Áureo de Paula
  36. Mandating Food Insecurity: The Global Impacts of Rising Biofuel Mandates and Targets By Timothy A. Wise; Emily Cole
  37. Taxonomy of implemented policy instruments to foster the production of green technologies and improve environmental and economic performance By Francesco Crespi; Claudia Ghisetti; Francesco Quatraro
  38. Nigeria: Selected Issues Paper By International Monetary Fund

  1. By: Gabriel Di Bella; Lawrence Norton; Joseph Ntamatungiro; Sumiko Ogawa; Issouf Samaké; Marika Santoro
    Abstract: The oil price decline creates an opportunity to dismantle energy subsidies, which escalated with high oil prices. This paper assesses energy subsidies in Latin America and the Caribbean—about 1.8 percent of GDP in 2011–13 (approximately evenly split between fuel and electricity), and about 3.8 percent of GDP including negative externalities. Countries with poorer institutions subsidize more. Energy-rich countries subsidize fuel more, but low-income countries are more likely to subsidize electricity, as are Central America and the Caribbean. Energy subsidies impose fiscal costs, hurting SOEs, competitiveness, and distribution. The paper overviews country experience with subsidy reform, drawing lessons.
    Keywords: Energy sector;Latin America;Caribbean;Fiscal policy;Energy;Subsidies;Public enterprises;Private investments;Energy Subsidies, Fiscal Policy, Latin America and the Caribbean
    Date: 2015–02–12
  2. By: Jorge Alvarez; Fabian Valencia
    Abstract: This paper assesses the real effects of the energy reform in Mexico by looking at its impact on manufacturing output through changes in energy prices. Using sub-sector and state-level manufacturing output data, along with past variation in energy prices, we find electricity prices––relative to oil and gas––to be more important in the manufacturing process, with a one standard deviation reduction in electricity prices leading to a 2.8 percent increase in manufacturing output. Our estimated elasticities together with plausible reductions in electricity tariffs derived from the energy reform, could increase manufacturing output by up to 3.6 percent, and overall real GDP by 0.6 percent. Larger reductions are possible over the long run if increased efficiency in the sector leads electricity prices to converge to U.S. levels. Moreover, including the impact of lower electricity tariffs on the services sector, could lead to significantly larger effects on GDP. Accounting for endogeneity of unit labor costs in a panel VAR setting leads to an additional indirect channel which amplifies the impact of electricity prices on output.
    Keywords: Energy sector;Mexico;Manufacturing sector;Industrial production;Electricity;Energy prices;Fiscal reforms;growth; energy reform; manufacturing output; electricity; gas; Mexico; panel VAR.
    Date: 2015–02–27
  3. By: Bergquist, Ann-Kristin (CERE); Söderholm, Kristina (LTU)
    Abstract: This paper examines the transition towards renewable energy in the Swedish pulp and paper industry (PPI) during the 1970s and -80s. In the wake of the first Oil Crisis until the late 1980s, the use of fossil fuels was reduced by 70 percent in this sector. The lion’s share of the reduction was achieved by substituting oil by biofuels in terms of rest products from the pulp manufacturing process. The reduction was made possible also by efficiency improvements and increased internal production of electricity through back-pressure turbine power generation. Sweden was highly dependent on oil when the first Oil Crisis broke, and the run up in oil prices put pressure on the Swedish government and the energy intensive PPI to reduce dependency. Of central importance for the transition to be implemented was a highly collaborative strategy of the sector as well as between the sector and the corporatist Swedish state administration. The Swedish government chose a proactive strategy by emphasizing knowledge management and collaboration with industry along with the substitution of oil with biofuels. The transition was further fueled by the fact that focus was directed towards unutilized potentials in the sector, where a previous waste problem now could be transformed into energy savings, i.e., the strong version of the Porter hypothesis. Also energy taxes and fees played a major role as control agents in the Swedish energy policy of the 1970s and 80s. Thus, the study illustrates the central role of governments and their ability to push industries into new technological paths through a wide palette of interplaying policy instruments. The study further points at the importance of a more holistic understanding of the interplay between different policies and impacts in the longer run.
    Keywords: Energy transition; oil crisis; bio fuels; pulp and paper; Sweden
    JEL: N00
    Date: 2015–03–27
  4. By: Magdalena Zajaczkowska (Cracow University of Economics)
    Abstract: Renewable energy will play a key role in the transition towards a competitive, secure and sustainable energy system. In 2014 the Commission proposed an objective to increase the share of renewable energy to at least 27% of the EU's energy consumption by 2030. The European Council endorsed this target which is binding at EU level. The Renewable Energy Directive (Directive 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 April 2009 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources and amending and subsequently repealing Directives 2001/77/EC and 2003/30/EC) was implemented in Poland on 20 February 2015 by the new renewable energy sources act. The objective of this article is to analyse the current state of the Polish energy sector related to the prosumer energy industry. It also describes the future potential for the development of prosumer energy in Poland. The analysis was conducted in the light of the new EU climate and energy initiatives. At the beginning, the article presents the current general state in EU’s energy sector. European Union Climate and Energy Package targets up to 2050 and the state of renewable energy use gives the background to conduct an analysis of prospects for the development of prosumer energy in Poland. That is why the last part is devoted to the prosumer energy sector in Poland in the context of European Union regulations. The critical analysis of the current situation in that sector has made it possible to evaluate prospects for the development of prosumer energy in Poland in the context of the recently introduced legal regulations.
    Keywords: prosumer; energy sources; renewable sources of energy; climate and energy policies
    JEL: A11 E61 F50 H89
    Date: 2015–04
  5. By: David Newbery; Goran Strbac
    Abstract: Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) could be key to decarbonizing transport, but are heavily subsidized. Most assessments of BEVs use highly taxed road fuel prices and ignore efficient pricing of electricity. We use efficient prices for transport fuels and electricity, to judge what battery costs would make BEVs cost competitive. High mileage, low discount rates and high oil prices could make BEVs cost competitive by 2020, and by 2030 fuel costs are comparable over a wider range. Its contribution lies in careful derivation of efficient prices and the concept of a target battery cost.
    Keywords: -
    Date: 2014–04–14
  6. By: Antonio Estache; Anne-Sophie Steichen
    Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to document the differences in the cost of capital in Belgium across electricity generation companies, depending on whether they rely on traditional thermal sources or on RES. The average results are quite surprising and in sharp contrast with the results obtained for the UK or Germany by other researchersfor instancer. Comparing 3 main categories (renewable, non renewable and mixed), the Non-Renewable appear to have a lower CoC than the other in contrast to what the literature suggests should be expected The Vanilla CoC for the RES of our sample show lower CoC levels by around 30bps than for non-RES. The conclusion is the same from the analysis of the Pre-tax WACC. We take this as evidence that Belgium may have overshot in its efforts to stimulate investment to increase the relative importance of renewable energy sources, at least until the reduction in these efforts started in 2013
    Date: 2015–04
  7. By: A.Haarscher; M. Bruner; J. Doblas; A. Fargere; S.F. Ashley; W.J. Nuttall
    Abstract: The Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami on March 11th 2011 caused mass destruction, significant loss-of-life and a large displacement of people. It also placed significant strain of Japan’s electricity-generating infrastructure. There was a significant reduction in capacity due to the damage in thermal generation and gradual closure of Japan’s nuclear power plants; the ability for load-balancing across the Japanese grid was compromised due to limited interconnections between the different utilities that comprise the Japanese electricity system. This paper looks at the first fifteen months following the earthquake and tsunami: outlining the supply reduction and consequent attempts to manage the demand. In turn it highlights the foibles of Japan’s vertically-integrated monopolistic structures and the evolution of governmental and utilities response that went from decisions made “on-the-fly” to a more developed policy for peak-demand electricity savings. The findings from this paper should serve as a useful set of examples to aid decision makers in contingency planning for disruptive large-scale reduction in electricity-generating capacity.
    Keywords: Public Policy; Nuclear Power; Energy Conservation
    JEL: O13 P28 P48 Q41 Q47 Q48
    Date: 2014–04–13
  8. By: Green, RJ; Staffell, I
    Date: 2015–04–09
  9. By: Karim L. Anaya; Michael G. Pollitt
    Abstract: This study explores and quantifies the benefits of connecting more distributed generation (with and without the use of smart connections) across different parties (Distribution Network Operators, wider society and generators). Different connection scenarios are proposed (with partial and full interruptible capacity quota, a mix of generation and different technology-specific curtailment levels) for integrating DG units in the constrained area of the March grid (East of England). This constitutes the trial area of the Flexible Plug and Play project, which is being implemented by UK Power Networks. The smart connection option is by far the preferred option across all the scenarios (higher NPV/MW). However, for some generators the results are very sensitive to the discount rate used (i.e. solar PV). The analysis of the distribution of benefits suggests that generators capture most of the benefits while DNOs and wider society capture much less benefit. A smart connection incentive, which recreates the benefits to DNOs from an earlier losses incentive, is proposed. In contrast with other societally desirable metrics which are usually incentivised or penalised, there is currently no direct connection between more DG MWs connected and DNO incentive payments. Our proposed smart connection incentive, by charging DG for smarter connection may help to distribute more efficiently the benefits for connecting more DG.
    Keywords: distributed generation, renewable energy, smart solutions, cost benefit analysis, smart connection incentive
    JEL: D61 H25 L51 L94 Q40 Q48
    Date: 2015–04–09
  10. By: Christian Pape (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen); Christoph Weber (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen)
    Abstract: European electricity market participants are encouraged to balance intraday deviations from their day-ahead schedules via trades in the intraday market. Together with the increasing production of variable renewable energy sources, the intraday market is gaining importance. We investigate the explanatory power of a fundamental modeling approach explicitly accounting for must-run operations of combined heat and power plants (CHP) and intraday peculiarities such as a shortened intraday supply stack. The fundamental equilibria between every hour’s supply stack and aggregated demand in 2012 and 2013 are modeled to yield hourly price estimates. The major benefits of a fundamental modeling approach are the ability to account for non-linearities in the supply stack and the ability to combine time-varying information consistently. The empirical results show that fundamental modeling explains a considerable share of spot price variance. How-ever, differences between the fundamental and actual prices persist and are explored using regression models. The main differences can be attributed to (avoided) start up-costs, market states and trading behavior.
    Keywords: Intraday market for electricity, fundamental price modeling
    JEL: Q41
    Date: 2015–03
  11. By: Xiaoping He; David Reiner
    Abstract: An increasing block tariff (IBT) has been implemented nationwide in the residential sector in China since July 2012 as part of a process towards liberalizing electricity prices. However, knowledge about IBT design is still limited, particularly how to determine the electricity volume for the first block of an IBT scheme. Assuming the first block should be set based on some measure of electricity poverty, we attempt to model household electricity demand such that the range of basic needs can be established. We find that in Chinese households there exists a threshold for electricity consumption with respect to income, which might be considered a measure of electricity poverty, and the threshold differs between rural and urban areas. For rural (urban) families, electricity consumption at the level of 7th (5th) income decile households can be considered the threshold for basic needs or a measure of electricity poverty since household electricity demand in rural (urban) areas does not respond to income changes until after the 7th (5th) income decile. Further, for the case of China’s electricity consumption, we find that if there is a saturation point, after which household energy needs would not rise further proportionately with increasing income, it is far from having been reached. Whereas the first IBT block was set at 240 kWh per household for Beijing, we estimate basic needs to be roughly 90 kWh per month for rural households and 150 kWh for urban households. The first IBT block therefore appears to have been set at a level that is too high, roughly equivalent to the average consumption of the top decile of urban residents. Over time however, given continued rapid growth, the IBT will begin to better reflect actual basic needs.
    Keywords: -
    JEL: N55 P28 Q41 O13 I3
    Date: 2014–04–13
  12. By: Zaneta Simanaviciene (Kaunas University of Technology); Andzej Volochovic (Kaunas University of Technology); Akvile Cibinskiene (Kaunas University of Technology)
    Abstract: Scientists from all over the world recognize that energy saving in households is currently very relevant topic. Energy resources are very important factor for each country's economic vitality. Not only the country's replenishment in energy resources is important, but also the reduction of energy consumption volume.
    Keywords: energy saving potential; households, evaluation, behavior change
    JEL: Q43 Q51 Q56 C92 D1
    Date: 2015–04
  13. By: Brown, David P. (University of Alberta, Department of Economics); Sappington, David E. M. (University of Florida)
    Abstract: We characterize the optimal regulatory policy to promote demand response in the electricity sector. Demand response arises when consumers reduce their purchases of electricity in times of peak demand, when the utility's marginal cost of supplying electricity is relatively high. The optimal policy differs systematically from the policy in the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC's) Order 745. Under plausible conditions, implementation of the FERC's policy can reduce welfare substantially below the level secured by the optimal demand response policy.
    Keywords: electricity pricing; demand response
    JEL: L11 L50 L94 Q40
    Date: 2015–03–01
  14. By: Ali Jadidzadeh (University of Calgary); Apostolos Serletis (University of Calgary)
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the aggregate demand for electricity, natural gas, and light fuel oil in Canada as a whole and six of its provinces — Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia — in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. We employ the locally ‡flexible normalized quadratic (NQ)expenditure function (in the case of the residential sector) and the NQ cost function (in the case of the commercial and industrial sectors), treat the curvature property as a maintained hypothesis, and provide evidence consistent with neoclassical microeconomic theory. We fi…nd that the Morishima interfuel elasticities of substitution are in general positive and statistically signifi…cant. Our results in- dicate limited substitutability between electricity and natural gas, but strong substitutability between light fuel oil and each of electricity and natural gas in most cases.
    Date: 2015–04–13
  15. By: Sapovadia, Vrajlal; Patel, Sweta; Patel, Akash
    Abstract: The present study aims to understand the prevailing under current, forces, strategies, policies & challenges faced by various stakeholders. The conversion of entire fleet of auto rickshaws to CNG was successful in the 5 years. Along with other measure of clean energy, Ahmedabad made remarkable make over. In 2011, Ahmedabad received Sustainable Transport Award, which is given annually by the Institute for Transportation Development and Policy (ITDP) in recognition of progress in increasing mobility for all residents while reducing transportation greenhouse and air pollution emissions and improving safety and access for cyclists and pedestrians. For launching three pronged strategy, Ahmedabad transportation received Lee Kuan Yew World City Prize Special Mention in 2012.
    Keywords: Clean Energy, Air Pollution, Auto Rickshaw, Ahmedabad, Political Economy
    JEL: Q53 R48
    Date: 2015–04–03
  16. By: Stephen Littlechild
    Abstract: Since 2008 UK energy regulator Ofgem has imposed increasingly severe restrictions on suppliers to the domestic (residential) retail market. Initially, non-discrimination conditions aimed to “remove unfair price differentials”, particularly between suppliers’ prices between regions, totalling £0.5 bn. This actually envisaged increasing prices to other customers by £0.5 billion, to maintain revenue neutrality. In the event, competition reduced, customer switching fell by half, and profits of major suppliers increased by nearly £1 billion, at the expense of customers. Later, restrictions on the number and types of tariffs aimed to encourage customers to engage in the market. However, there is no empirical evidence to justify this, and the policy prohibits many discounts and tariff types that customers value, especially vulnerable customers. Perhaps Ofgem felt pressed to Do Something in the face of an unprecedented increase in energy prices. Successive Governments have supported its interventions, but cannot be blamed for designing them. The decline of economists in senior positions at Ofgem removed an important ‘sanity check’. But Ofgem itself bears responsibility for its change in policy since 2008. It may have been well-meaning, attempting to protect the interests of vulnerable customers, but inappropriate restrictions have made customers worse off. Should other regulators follow suit? No. Hopefully the CMA market investigation will reveal this and bring to an end one of the most misguided episodes in the modern history of UK regulation.
    Keywords: retail competition, energy regulation, non-discrimination
    JEL: L51 L97 L94
    Date: 2014–04–13
  17. By: Shengbao Ji; Yin-Fang Zhang; Tooraj Jamasb
    Abstract: Cheap, abundant and easy to transport and store, coal has been produced and consumed to meet people’s energy needs. The last decade’s growth in global coal use has been driven mainly by developing economies like China, whose phenomenal economic growth has been powered by coal-fired electricity and promoted by the export of manufactured goods. A recent reform focus in China’s coal sector is on coal taxation. The paper develops a game-theoretic model tailored to the context of China where coal taxation reform takes place against the background of privatisation of coal firms and an open economy. It finds that the adoption of special coal taxes is optimal for social welfare under most circumstances, but may induce coal firms to commit opportunistic behaviour in the process of privatisation. The paper also cautions about potential resistance to the reform from consumers, coal firms and government officials.
    Keywords: Coal taxation, energy, China, open economy, privatisation, game theory
    JEL: C7 H2 H32 L5 Q38 Q48
    Date: 2014–04–14
  18. By: Dhaoui, Abderrazak; Saidi, Youssef
    Abstract: This paper examines the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and stock market in 11 OECD countries using Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). Considering both world oil production and world oil prices to supervise for oil supply and oil demand shocks, strong evidence of sensitivity of stock market returns to the oil price shocks specifications is found. As for impulse response functions, it is found that the impact of oil price shocks substantially differs along the different countries and that the results also differ along the various oil shock specifications. Our finding suggests that oil supply shocks have a negative effect on stock market returns in the net oil importing OECD countries. However, the stock market returns are negatively impacted by oil demand shocks in the oil importing OECD countries, and positively impacted in the oil exporting OECD countries.
    Keywords: Oil price; Stock market return; Oil supply shocks; Oil demand shocks, Vector Error Correction Models.
    JEL: G12 Q43
    Date: 2015–04
  19. By: Mark Agerton; Peter Hartley; Kenneth Medlock III; Ted Temzelides
    Abstract: Technological progress in the exploration and production of oil and gas during the 2000s has led to a boom in upstream investment and has increased the domestic supply of fossil fuels. It is unknown, however, how many jobs this boom has created. We use time-series methods at the national level and dynamic panel methods at the state-level to understand how the increase in exploration and production activity has impacted employment. We find robust statistical support for the hypothesis that changes in drilling for oil and gas as captured by rig-counts do in fact, have an economically meaningful and positive impact on employment. The strongest impact is contemporaneous, though months later in the year also experience statistically and economically meaningful growth. Once dynamic effects are accounted for, we estimate that an additional rig-count results in the creation of 37 jobs immediately and 224 jobs in the long run, though our robustness checks suggest that these multipliers could be bigger.
    Keywords: Oil production;United States;Natural gas;Commodity boom;Job creation;Employment;Econometric models;Time series;Employment
    Date: 2015–02–11
  20. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that Malaysia’s well-diversified economy continued to perform well in 2014. Growth accelerated to 5.9 percent, aided by robust domestic private demand and a recovery in exports. Lower energy costs helped contain inflation to 3.1 percent despite the removal of fuel subsidies and increase in electricity tariffs. Growth is expected to moderate to 4.8 percent in 2015. Strong investment momentum should help offset headwinds from continued fiscal consolidation. Lower energy prices will be a drag on oil and gas production but should provide a boost to the large non-oil sector.
    Keywords: Article IV consultation reports;Economic growth;Fiscal policy;Fiscal reforms;Monetary policy;Nonbank financial sector;Economic indicators;Debt sustainability analysis;Staff Reports;Press releases;Malaysia;
    Date: 2015–03–03
  21. By: Marc Ozawa
    Abstract: Trust in Norwegian-Russian energy relations is one in the making. Both sides have actively pursued to build trust, particularly over the past decade. The process has been driven by shared economic interests, the prominence of the petroleum industry in both countries, and a desire to improve political relations on both sides. Factors shaping trust are pre-existing on the one hand, and determined by the actors’ signals on the other. Different organisational and cultural preferences likewise play a role in the development of trust and degree of co-operation. This study argues that the current level of trust is neither high nor low when compared to other bi-lateral relations with Russia. While trust appears to have contributed to breakthroughs in co-operation such as the resolution of the maritime border and new joint ventures in oil exploration, a lack of trust owing to diverging interests and market forces is inhibiting collaboration in the realm of gas. This potentially puts Norway and Russia on a path to increased competition for their primary gas markets, first in Germany and then in the rest of continental Europe. As the two main gas suppliers of the EU, this suggests serious implications on the future of European gas markets, the return on investment for their upstream gas industries, and energy security in the region.
    Keywords: Trust, natural gas, oil, trade, co-operation, Norway, Russia, Europe
    Date: 2014–04–14
  22. By: Bentour, El Mostafa
    Abstract: Using input-output models, we analyze the effect of removing subsidized oil products in Morocco. We set three scenarios of increasing oil products by 25%, 50% and 75%, and symmetric decreases by the same amounts. We show that the effects are high in intensive oil products sectors such as transports and electricity and water sectors. Using the weights of the sectors, we deduce the overall inflation generated by direct and indirect requirements for the total economy. For example, an increase in oil prices by 75% generates a global inflation cost between 5.5% and 8%. Symmetric scenarios indicate no strong asymmetrical effects. The generated inflation may alter the stable path of inflation recorded over the past fifteen years putting pressure on the monetary authorities. Therefore, the change of strategy from managed exchange rate regime towards a flexible regime, extensively discussed, is now an urgent necessity.
    Keywords: Energy Reform, Fiscal Policy, Inflation, Input-Output Models, Asymmetric Effects, Morocco.
    JEL: D57 E31 Q41
    Date: 2015–03–15
  23. By: International Monetary Fund
    Abstract: This Selected Issues paper examines the implications of lower crude oil prices on Malaysia’s economy. Although Malaysia’s net oil exports are now very small as a share of GDP, its gas exports are sizeable. The paper provides some background on the structure of energy production and trade in Malaysia, and presents results from empirical analysis of the oil prices on Malaysia’s growth. It is concluded that the decline in prices is likely to have a net negative impact on growth, even though the recent decline in oil prices partially reflects supply considerations.
    Keywords: Energy sector;Economic growth;Oil prices;Natural gas;Fiscal risk;Debt sustainability;Fiscal reforms;Subsidies;Risk management;Cross country analysis;Economic models;Selected Issues Papers;Malaysia;
    Date: 2015–03–03
  24. By: International Monetary Fund
    Keywords: Oil subsidies;Oil prices;Gasoline prices;Energy sector;Fiscal reforms;Technical Assistance;Angola;
    Date: 2015–02–04
  25. By: Garbuzova-Schlifter, Maria (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN))
    Abstract: Systematic and effective risk management in energy performance contracting (EPC) projects requires a sound understanding of the main risks faced by energy service companies (ESCOs) and other energy service providing companies (ESPCs), which accomplish such projects under vulnerable market conditions in Russia. This study explores the EPC project risks (risk factors and their causes) and develops a risk analysis framework that is applied to three Russian sectors: (1) industrial; (2) housing and communal services; and (3) public. The identified general risks were validated by Russian EPC practitioners in expert interviews. An analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach was then used to rank the identified risks in terms of their contribution to the riskiness of EPC projects. The data were obtained from a web-based questionnaire survey conducted among Russian ESCOs and ESPCs. For improving consistency of the obtained AHP results, the maximum deviation approach (MDA) for 8×8 matrices and the induced bias matrix model (IBBM) for 3×3 and 4×4 matrices were applied. This study indicates that there is a need for a widely usable formal approach for risk analysis and management in EPC projects in Russia. Causes of risk related to the financial and regulatory aspects were found to contribute most to the riskiness of EPC projects performed in all three focus sectors in that country.
    Keywords: Risk analysis; energy performance contracting; EPC; energy service company; ESCO; Russia; analytic hierarchy process; AHP
    Date: 2014–10
  26. By: Lichter, Andreas (IZA); Pestel, Nico (IZA); Sommer, Eric (IZA)
    Abstract: In this paper, we estimate the causal effect of ambient air pollution on individuals' productivity by using panel data on the universe of professional soccer players in Germany over the period 1999-2011. Combining this data with hourly information on the concentration of particulate matter in spatial proximity to each stadium at the time of kickoff, we exploit exogenous variation in the players' exposure to air pollution due to match scheduling rules that are beyond the control of teams and players. Our analysis shows negative and non-linear effects of air pollution on short-run productivity. We further find that the effect increases with age and is stronger in case players face an additional physical burden.
    Keywords: air pollution, productivity, soccer, sports data, Germany
    JEL: J24 Q51 Q53
    Date: 2015–04
  27. By: De Paula, Áureo; Halliday, Timothy J.; Lynham, John
    Abstract: Kilauea volcano is the largest stationary source of SO2 pollution in the United States of America. Moreover, the SO2 that the volcano emits eventually forms particulate matter, another major pollutant. We use this exogenous source of pollution variation to estimate the impact of particulate matter and SO2 on emergency room admissions and costs in the state of Hawai‘i. Importantly, our data on costs is more accurate than the measures used in much of the literature. We find strong evidence that particulate pollution increases pulmonary-related hospitalization. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in particulate pollution leads to a 2-3% increase in expenditures on emergency room visits for pulmonary-related outcomes. However, we do not find strong effects for pure SO2 pollution or for cardiovascular outcomes. We also find no effect of volcanic pollution on fractures, our placebo outcome. Finally, the effects of particulate pollution on pulmonary-related admissions are most concentrated among the very young. Our estimates suggest that, since the large increase in emissions that began in 2008, the volcano has increased healthcare costs in Hawai‘i by approximately $6,277,204.
    Keywords: Health; Particulates; Pollution; SO2; Volcano
    JEL: H51 I12 Q51 Q53
    Date: 2015–04
  28. By: Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh; Juan Rosellón; Steven A. Gabriel
    Abstract: This paper proposes an incentive mechanism for transmission expansion planning. The mechanism is a bilevel program. The upper level is a profit-maximizing transmission company (Transco) which expands its transmission system while endogenously predicts and influences the generation investment. The lower level is the optimal generation dispatch and investment. The Transco funds its transmission investment costs by collecting merchandising surplus and charging a fixed fee to consumers. The Transco is subject to a revenue cap set by the regulator. This mechanism is formulated as a mixed-integer, quadratically-constrained program (MIQCP) and applied to modified Garver and IEEE 24-node systems. The results of proposed approach have been compared with the welfare-maximum benchmark and cases of Transco with cost-plus regulation and no regulation. In all tested cases, the proposed approach results in welfare-maximum outcomes while the other regulatory approaches fail to produce welfare-maximum outcomes. The profit-maximizing approach has also been successful in cases where transmission investment is driven by demand growth and reactive Transco.
    Keywords: revenue-cap regulation, transmission planning, electricity
    JEL: D24 L51 L94
    Date: 2015
  29. By: Jochen Markard (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, Group for Sustainability and Technology, Weinbergstrasse 56/58, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland); Marco Suter (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Department of Management, Technology and Economics, Group for Sustainability and Technology, Weinbergstrasse 56/58, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland); Karin Ingold (Institute of Political Science, University of Bern, Fabrikstrasse 8, Bern 3012, Switzerland; Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, EAWAG, Überlandstrasse 133, Dübendorf 8600, Switzerland; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zähringerstrasse 25, Bern 3012, Switzerland)
    Abstract: Policies and politics are an integral part of socio-technical transitions but have not received much attention in the transitions literature so far. Our paper addresses this gap with a study on actors and coalitions in Swiss energy policy making. Drawing on the advocacy coalition framework, we develop first ideas about the interplay of socio-technical systems and policy systems. Then we investigate empirically how coalitions have changed and whether there are indications for major policy change. Our results show that advocacy coalitions in Switzerland have largely remained stable despite the Fukushima shock. However, heterogeneity of beliefs has increased and in 2013, even a majority of actors expressed their support for the energy transition – an indication that major policy change might be ahead. It seems that in socio-technical transitions policy change is not just a matter of core beliefs. Instead, changes in the policy issue and in the actor base – both as a consequence of technological change – play a role as well. We make suggestions how the advocacy coalition framework can inform analysis and theory building in transition studies.
    Keywords: Politics, policy change, advocacy coalition framework, energy transition, energy policy, Switzerland
    Date: 2015–04
  30. By: J. Scott Holladay (Department of Economics, University of Tennessee)
    Abstract: This paper documents a relationship between international trade and environmental performance at the plant level. Using a panel of establishment-level data from 1990-2006, I estimate the relationship be- tween export orientation, import competition and pollution emissions. I find a robust relationship between international trade and pollution levels. Exporters emit 9-13% less after controlling for output, but their is significant heterogeneity across industries. Import competition is associated with the exit of the smallest, most pollution intensive plants. There is no evidence that this result is caused by polluting firms relocating to countries with low levels of environmental regulation and importing back into the U.S.
    JEL: F1 Q5
    Date: 2015–02
  31. By: Johanna Arlinghaus
    Abstract: Concerns around potential losses of competitiveness as a result of unilateral action on carbon pricing are often central for policy makers contemplating the introduction of such instruments. This paper is a review of literature on ex post empirical evaluations of the impacts of carbon prices on indicators of competitiveness as employed in the literature, including employment, output or exports, at different levels of aggregation.<BR>Le risque que des mesures unilatérales de tarification du carbone induisent des pertes de compétitivité constitue souvent un sujet d’inquiétude majeur pour les responsables publics qui envisagent de mettre en place de tels instruments. Ce document passe en revue les travaux consacrés aux évaluations empiriques ex post des effets des prix du carbone sur les indicateurs de la compétitivité communément utilisés, dont l’emploi, la production ou les exportations, à différents niveaux d’agrégation.
    Keywords: competitiveness, carbon tax, environmental taxes, policy evaluation, emissions trading
    JEL: H23 H32 Q54 Q58
    Date: 2015–03–27
  32. By: Paulina Szyja (Uniwersytet Pedagogiczny im. Komisji Edukacji Narodowej)
    Abstract: Starting from the crisis on the real economy in 2008 it has been developed an intense discussion, supported by a number of declarations on the global scale, about the need for changes in the economy. A huge impact on this state of affairs was the analysis of the causes and effects of the economic downturn and the challenges of the future. As a result, some states have taken action to remedy the situation. Many of them were aimed at structural changes in production, consumption and environmental friendly investment. At the same time gained in importance the concept of "low carbon economy" and "green economy". The aim of this paper is to present the role of the state in the economy in terms of creating conditions for a green economy. The thesis of publication is: implementation of structural changes connected with creating a green economy requires the involvement of the state.
    Keywords: sustainable development; environment; state; a green economy; energy
    JEL: E12 O20 O38 O44 P48 Q01 Q28 Q30 Q32 Q43
    Date: 2015–04
  33. By: Etienne Billette de Villemeur; Justin Leroux
    Abstract: We observe that a Pigovian climate policy need not exact full payment of the social cost of carbon upon emission to yield optimal incentives. Following this insight, we propose the creation of a carbon liabilities market to address climate change. Each period, countries would be made liable for their share of responsibility in current climate damage. This yields first-best emissions patterns. Because liabilities could be traded like financial debt, it also decentralizes the choice a discount rate as well as beliefs about the severity of the climate problem. From an informational standpoint, implementation relies only on realized damage and on the well-documented emission history of countries, unlike a carbon tax or tradable permits scheme, which are based on a sum of discounted expected future marginal damage.
    Keywords: Carbon liabilities, climate policy, market instruments, Pigovian tax,
    JEL: Q54 H23
    Date: 2015–04–15
  34. By: Jonathan Pickering (Centre for Deliberative Democracy and Global Governance, University of Canberra); Frank Jotzo (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University); Peter J. Wood (Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University)
    Abstract: Mobilizing climate finance for developing countries is crucial for achieving a fair and effective global climate regime. To date developed countries retain wide discretion over their national contributions. We explore how different degrees of international coordination may influence the fairness of the global financing effort. We present quantitative scenarios for (i) the metrics used to distribute the collective effort among countries contributing funding; and (ii) the number of contributing countries. We find that an intermediate degree of coordinationÑcombining nationally determined financing pledges with a robust international review mechanismÑmay reduce distortions in relative efforts as well as shortfalls in overall funding, while reflecting reasonable differences over what constitutes a fair share. Broadening the group of contributors may do little to improve adequacy or equity unless the more heterogeneous group can converge on credible measures of responsibility and capacity. The analysis highlights the importance of building common understandings about effort-sharing. Keywords: Climate policy; climate finance; equity; fairness; climate change mitigation; climate change adaptation, development assistance
    JEL: O16 O19 Q54
    Date: 2015–04
  35. By: Timothy Halliday (UH-Manoa Department of Economics, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, and IZA); John Lynham (UH-Manoa Department of Economics and University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization); Áureo de Paula (UCL, São Paulo School of Economics, IFS, CeMMAP)
    Abstract: Kilauea volcano is the largest stationary source of SO2 pollution in the United States of America. Moreover, the SO2 that the volcano emits eventually forms particulate matter, another major pollutant. We use this exogenous source of pollution variation to estimate the impact of particulate matter and SO2 on emergency room admissions and costs in the state of Hawai‘i. Importantly, our data on costs is more accurate than the measures used in much of the literature. We find strong evidence that particulate pollution increases pulmonary-related hospitalization. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in particulate pollution leads to a 2-3% increase in expenditures on emergency room visits for pulmonary-related outcomes. However, we do not find strong effects for pure SO2 pollution or for cardiovascular outcomes. We also find no effect of volcanic pollution on fractures, our placebo outcome. Finally, the effects of particulate pollution on pulmonary-related admissions are most concentrated among the very young. Our estimates suggest that, since the large increase in emissions that began in 2008, the volcano has increased healthcare costs in Hawai‘i by approximately $6,277,204.
    Keywords: Pollution, Health, Volcano, Particulates, SO2
    JEL: H51 I12 Q51 Q53
    Date: 2015–04
  36. By: Timothy A. Wise; Emily Cole
    Abstract: Expanding demand for biofuels, fed significantly by government policies mandating rising levels of consumption in transportation fuel, has been strongly implicated in food price increases and food price volatility most recently seen in 2008 and 2011-2012. First-generation biofuels, made from agricultural crops, divert food directly to fuel markets and divert land, water and other food-producing resources from their current or potential uses for production of feed for animals and food for human consumption. A key policy driver of biofuel consumption is government mandates to increase or maintain rates or levels of biofuel blends in transportation fuel, the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard and the E.U. Renewable Energy Directive being the most prominent cases. In this paper we assess the spread of such mandates and targets, finding that at least 64 countries now have such policies. We estimate the consumption increases implied by full implementation of such mandates in the seven countries/regions with the highest biofuel consumption, suggesting a 43% increase in first-generation biofuel consumption in 2025 over current levels. We compare this to even higher estimates from international agencies. We assess the likelihood of implementation in key countries and regions, which suggests that with reform, particularly in OECD countries, consumption growth could be slowed. We conclude with policy recommendations to reduce the mandate-driven expansion of first-generation biofuels and mitigate their negative social and environmental impacts.
    Date: 2015–02
  37. By: Francesco Crespi; Claudia Ghisetti; Francesco Quatraro
    Abstract: The Europe 2020 Strategy has identified the key goal of smart, more inclusive and sustainable growth. In this direction, redirecting firms’ innovation activities towards ecological targets without hampering their competitiveness is of paramount importance. The double externality issue related to environmental innovations makes the policy intervention crucial in order to avoid sub-optimal commitment of resources to the innovation process and ensure the reduction of polluting agents emissions However, the positive outcome of any policy inducement mechanisms is not guaranteed, as different policy frameworks may generate different innovative outcomes. An in depth analysis of environmental policy instruments is therefore all the more necessary in order to gain knowledge on the state of the art and evaluate the scenarios for further improvements. In this perspective, the proposed research project will focus on two main research questions: 1. What are the main existing EU policy instruments explicitly designed to trigger environmental innovations? Which are their main features? 2. Which are the possible avenues leading to successful policy design? The first research question will be tackled by performing a desk research aiming at analyzing the main environmental regulations introduced in Europe so as to produce a clear and comprehensive taxonomy to shed light on common dimensions and main differences. The second research question will be addressed by carrying out empirical analyses based on simulation and econometric techniques. We will focus on a specific environmental policy in the chemical domain so as to draw useful insights on the effect of the policy aiming at redirecting innovation activities to environmental targets and also to highlight the main policy best practices.
    Keywords: Academic research, Industrial policy, Innovation, Innovation policy, Patents
    JEL: O33 Q53 Q55 Q56 R11
    Date: 2015–03
  38. By: International Monetary Fund
    Keywords: Development plans;Oil sector;Oil revenues;Oil prices;Financial institutions;Infrastructure;Trade integration;Imports;Selected Issues Papers;Nigeria;
    Date: 2015–03–30

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