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on Energy Economics |
| By: | Massimo Filippini (Centre for Energy Policy and Economics (cepe), ETH Zurich and Department of Economics, University of Lugano); Lester C Hunt (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey) |
| Abstract: | The promotion of US energy efficiency policy is seen as a very important activity. Generally, the level of energy efficiency of a country or state is approximated by energy intensity, commonly calculated as the ratio of energy use to GDP. However, energy intensity is not an accurate proxy for energy efficiency given that changes in energy intensity are a function of changes in several factors including the structure of the economy, climate, efficiency in the use of resources, behaviour, and technical change. The aim of this paper is to measure persistent and transient underlying energy efficiency for the whole economy of 49 states in the US using a stochastic frontier energy demand approach. A total US energy demand frontier function is estimated using panel data for 49 states over the period 1995 to 2009 using two panel data models: the Mundlak version of the random effects model (which estimates the persistent part of the underlying energy efficiency) and the true random effects model (which estimates the transient part of the underlying energy efficiency). The analysis confirms that energy intensity is not a good indicator of underlying energy efficiency whereas, by controlling for a range of economic and other factors, the measure of persistent underlying energy efficiency obtained via the approach adopted here is. Moreover, the estimates show that although for some states EI might give a reasonable indication of a state’s relative UEE this is not the case for all states, California being a prime example. |
| Keywords: | US total energy demand; efficiency and frontier analysis; persistent and transient underlying energy efficiency. |
| JEL: | D D2 Q Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:seedps:150&r=ene |
| By: | Peter R Hartley (Rice University and University of Western Australia); Kenneth B Medlock III (Rice University) |
| Abstract: | More than 90% of the world's primary energy currently is supplied by fossil fuels, while more than 8% comes from nuclear power and hydroelectricity. Thus, despite the recent publicity for energy sources such as wind, solar, geothermal or biofuels, they provide only a tiny fraction of the world's energy, and even then mainly as a result of subsidies. On the positive side, large-scale energy production from non-hydroelectric renewable sources has at least become technologically feasible. One of the commonly cited reasons why new energy technologies have had difficulty gaining commercial viability is the so-called “valley of death". According to Markham et al. (2010), the phrase “valley of death" was first used in 1995 to refer to the challenges of transferring agricultural technologies to Third-World countries. It was later applied to describe a paucity of funding for the commercialization of new technologies relative to the funds available for more basic R&D. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uwa:wpaper:14-14&r=ene |
| By: | Mirhossein Mousavi (Alzahra University); Mona Mash'hadi Rajabi (Graduated from the University of Alzahra); Mahmoud Mahmoudzadeh (Firoozkooh Branch, Islamic Azad University, Firoozkooh) |
| Abstract: | Rebound effect refers to the phenomenon that energy savings from improvement in energy efficiency are lower than expected due to unintended second-order effects. The main reason of improving energy efficiency is Technological improvement. According to Khazzoom formula, the rebound effect of improving technology is equal to price elasticity of demand so in this research natural gas demand function is estimated. In addition to the economic drivers (natural gas price, price of substituted energy factors, industry value added), there are number of exogenous factors that drive energy demand. This research therefore uses Structural Time Series Model to estimate natural gas demand in Iran`s industry sector during 1988 to 2009 and then Khazzoom rebound effect is calculated. Estimated short run and long run rebound effect in Iran`s industry sector are 63 percent and 133 percent respectively, with a generally increasing UEDT in a decreasing rate. UEDT has upward sloping but level of UEDT is fixed during the period of research so the model is “smooth trend modelâ€. Relating to the research findings improving technology in Iran`s industry sector reduces Natural gas consumption up to 37 percent in short run. But in long time period increases Natural gas consumption up to 133 percent. So in short run technological improvement can reduce consumption approximately but in long run price policy reform should be used simultaneously. |
| Keywords: | Rebound effect , industry sector, natural gas, technological improvement, structural time series model |
| JEL: | C59 L69 Q31 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:0701953&r=ene |
| By: | Olivier Durand-Lasserve; Lorenza Campagnolo; Jean Chateau; Rob Dellink |
| Abstract: | This report develops an analytical framework that assesses the macroeconomic, environmental and distributional consequences of energy subsidy reforms. The framework is applied to the case of Indonesia to study the consequences in this country of a gradual phase out of all energy consumption subsidies between 2012 and 2020. The energy subsidy estimates used as inputs to this modelling analysis are those calculated by the International Energy Agency, using a synthetic indicator known as “price gaps”. The analysis relies on simulations made with an extended version of the OECD’s ENV-Linkages model. The phase out of energy consumption subsidies was simulated under three stylised redistribution schemes: direct payment on a per household basis, support to labour incomes, and subsidies on food products. The modelling results in this report indicate that if Indonesia were to remove its fossil fuel and electricity consumption subsidies, it would record real GDP gains of 0.4% to 0.7% in 2020, according to the redistribution scheme envisaged. The redistribution through direct payment on a per household basis performs best in terms of GDP gains. The aggregate gains for consumers in terms of welfare are higher, ranging from 0.8% to 1.6% in 2020. Both GDP and welfare gains arise from a more efficient allocation of resources across sectors resulting from phasing out energy subsidies. Meanwhile, a redistribution scheme through food subsidies tends to create other inefficiencies. The simulations show that the redistribution scheme ultimately matters in determining the overall distributional performance of the reform. Cash transfers, and to a lesser extent food subsidies, can make the reform more attractive for poorer households and reduce poverty. Mechanisms that compensate households via payments proportional to labour income are, on the contrary, more beneficial to higher income households and increase poverty. This is because households with informal labour earnings, which are not eligible for these payments, are more represented among the poor. The analysis also shows that phasing out energy subsidies is projected to reduce Indonesian CO2 emissions from fuel combustion by 10.8% to 12.6% and GHG emissions by 7.9% to 8.3%, in 2020 in the various scenarios, with respect to the baseline. These emission reductions exclude emissions from deforestation, which are large but highly uncertain and for which the model cannot make reliable projections.<BR>Ce rapport élabore un cadre analytique qui évalue les effets macroéconomiques, environnementaux et redistributifs des réformes des subventions énergétiques. Il applique ce cadre au cas de l’Indonésie afin d’étudier les conséquences dans ce pays d’une suppression progressive de toutes les subventions à la consommation d’énergie entre 2012 et 2020. Les estimations des subventions à l’énergie sur lesquelles se base cette analyse par modélisation sont celles calculées par l’Agence internationale de l’énergie, à l’aide d’un indicateur synthétique appelé « différentiel de prix ». L’analyse repose sur des simulations réalisées avec une version enrichie du modèle ENV-Linkages de l’OCDE, modèle dynamique d’équilibre général calculable (EGC) mondial. La suppression des subventions à la consommation d’énergie a été simulée en retenant trois types de dispositifs de redistribution : un paiement direct au niveau des ménages, un soutien aux revenus du travail et des subventions aux produits alimentaires. Les résultats de la modélisation réalisée dans ce rapport indiquent que si l’Indonésie venait à supprimer ses subventions à la consommation des combustibles fossiles et d’électricité, elle enregistrerait des gains de PIB réel de 0.4 % à 0.7 % en 2020, selon le dispositif de redistribution retenu. La redistribution sous forme de paiements directs au niveau des ménages donne les meilleurs résultats en termes de gains de PIB. Le gain global pour les consommateurs en termes de bien-être est plus élevé, allant de 0.8 % à 1.6 % en 2020. Les gains en matière de PIB et de bien-être sont obtenus grâce à une répartition des ressources entre les secteurs de façon plus efficiente à la suite de l’élimination des subventions énergétiques. Dans l’intervalle, un dispositif de redistribution sous forme de subventions alimentaires tend à créer d’autres inefficacités, qui compensent en partie les avantages macroéconomiques de la suppression des subventions à la consommation d’énergie. Les simulations montrent aussi qu’à terme, le dispositif de redistribution joue un rôle en déterminant l’effet redistributif global de la réforme. Les transferts monétaires, et dans une moindre mesure les subventions alimentaires, peuvent rendre la réforme plus profitable pour les ménages pauvres et faire reculer la pauvreté. À l’inverse, les mécanismes qui compensent les ménages à l’aide de paiements proportionnels aux revenus du travail bénéficient davantage aux ménages à revenu élevé et accroissent la pauvreté. En effet, les ménages qui reçoivent des revenus du travail dans le secteur informel et qui ne peuvent prétendre à ces paiements, sont plus nombreux chez les pauvres. L’analyse montre aussi que d’après les prévisions, la suppression des subventions énergétiques en Indonésie devrait réduire les émissions de CO2 dues à la combustion des énergies fossiles de 10.8 % à 12.6 % et les émissions de GES de 7.9 % à 8.3 % en 2020 selon les différents scénarios, par rapport au scénario de référence. Ces réductions d’émissions ne tiennent pas compte des émissions dues à la déforestation, qui sont élevées mais restent très mal connues, et au sujet desquelles le modèle ne peut pas faire de projections fiables. |
| Keywords: | computable and other applied general equilibrium models, Indonesia, distributional impact, households’ heterogeneity, fossil fuel subsidy reforms, hétérogénéité des ménages, réforme des subventions aux énergies fossiles, effets distributifs, Indonésie, modèle d’équilibre général calculable |
| JEL: | C68 H23 O53 |
| Date: | 2015–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:86-en&r=ene |
| By: | Ke Wang; Ya-Xuan Wang; Kang Li; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Energy poverty has got increasing attention during the latest three decades. Measuring energy poverty is the premise of policy making to alleviate energy poverty. There is no unified energy poverty measurement that has been widely accepted. This paper reviews the commonly used energy poverty measurements through classifying them into three categories: energy service availability, energy service quality, and satisfaction of energy demand for human's survival and development. This paper also analyzes the suitability of the commonly used energy poverty measurement for China from the prospective of data availability and index applicability. Furthermore, we construct a new energy poverty comprehensive evaluation index in this study, and the index is illustrated to evaluate regional energy poverty in China. The evaluation results indicate that China's energy poverty showed an alleviating trend from 2000 to 2011, and during this period, China's energy service availability improved slightly; energy consumption cleanliness showed no significant change; energy management completeness decreased with fluctuations; and household energy affordability and energy efficiency improved continually. In addition, China's regions show different characteristics of energy poverty. For example, Middle reaches of Yangtze River region showed the worst energy availability and Eastern coastal region showed the worst energy management completeness. Several policy implications for energy poverty alleviation are also proposed in this study, including, for instance, increasing investment on energy infrastructure, and spreading energy management organization in rural area; decreasing relative cost on household commercial energy consumption, and encourage the utilization of modern, clean and efficient household energy consumption equipment. |
| Keywords: | Energy poverty, Energy service, Energy consumption, China |
| JEL: | Q47 Q54 |
| Date: | 2014–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:biw:wpaper:74&r=ene |
| By: | Claudia Kettner (WIFO); Daniela Kletzan-Slamanig (WIFO); Angela Köppl (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | A transformation of prevailing energy systems requires adequate measurement systems. In this paper we propose an energy-service based indicator set and a composite index for monitoring sustainable energy development in the residential sector and electricity and heat supply in Austria. The system of Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development for Austria (ISED-AT) and the composite index focus on energy services instead of energy flows and are hence effective tools for monitoring and guiding the transition, as they allow assessing the whole range of technology options for providing a particular energy service. The analysis of household final energy demand and electricity and heat supply in Austria shows substantial progress in terms of ecological aspects, such as the share of renewable energy sources and CO2 emissions. With respect to energy efficiency, in contrast, only little improvement can be observed. Efficiency of energy service provision is decreasing except for heating and air conditioning. Final energy demand is rising in all areas of household energy demand. The challenge lies in a substantial improvement of energy efficiency that will allow an absolute decoupling of energy service demand from final energy consumption. |
| Keywords: | sustainable energy development, indicator set, composite index, residential buildings, energy supply |
| Date: | 2015–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2015:i:495&r=ene |
| By: | Katarzyna Maciejowska; Rafal Weron |
| Abstract: | In this paper we investigate whether considering the fine structure of half-hourly electricity prices, the market closing prices of fundamentals (natural gas, coal and CO2) and the system-wide demand can lead to significantly more accurate short- and mid-term forecasts of APX UK baseload prices. We evaluate the predictive accuracy of a number of univariate and multivariate time series models over a three-year out-of-sample forecasting period and compare it against that of a benchmark autoregressive model. We find that in the short-term, up to a few business days ahead, a disaggregated model which independently predicts the intra-day prices and then takes their average to yield baseload price forecasts is the best performer. However, in the mid-term, factor models which explore the correlation structure of intra-day prices lead to significantly (as measured by the Diebold-Mariano test) better baseload price forecasts. At the same time, we observe that the inclusion of fundamental variables - especially natural gas prices (in the short-term) and coal prices (in the mid-term) - provides significant gains. The CO2 prices, on the other hand, generally do not improve the price forecasts at all, at least in the time period considered in this study (Apr. 2009 - Dec. 2013). |
| Keywords: | Electricity price; Forecasting; Vector autoregression; Factor model; Principal components; |
| JEL: | C32 C38 C53 Q47 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wuu:wpaper:hsc1504&r=ene |
| By: | Gesmar Rosa dos Santos |
| Abstract: | Este artigo descreve as características do apoio financeiro à pesquisa em energias renováveis (ERs) dentro dos Fundos Setoriais de Inovação Tecnológica do Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (MCTI). O objetivo é identificar o perfil desse apoio e compreender como os fundos, que são o principal mecanismo estatal de financiamento à pesquisa no Brasil, respondem aos desafios nesta área em que o país é grande expoente. Para tanto, utilizou-se base de dados do próprio MCTI, relativa ao período 1999-2012, contendo mais de 35 mil projetos, com o emprego de metodologia descritiva centrada em estatísticas básicas, e uma breve comparação com os sistemas de apoio à pesquisa e inovação neste tema na Alemanha e nos Estados Unidos. O trabalho identificou 1.893 projetos de pesquisa na área, espalhados nos diversos fundos. Como resultados, destacam-se o pequeno porte do financiamento e uma grande abrangência de temas, com prioridade para biomassa energética e infraestruturas. Os dados apontam, ainda, uma trajetória de descontinuidade nos desembolsos, registrando-se queda acentuada nos anos 2011 e 2012. This article describes the characteristics of the Brazilian financial support for research on renewable energy within the Innovation Sector Funds, managed by the Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (MCTI). The main objective of this paper is to identify the profile of this support and understanding what extent the funds respond to the challenges in renewable energy in an area that Brazil is a global exponent. We use MCTI database for the period 1999-2012, containing over 35,000 projects. The methodology is based on descriptive data, basic statistics and a brief comparison with the Germany´s and the United States of America´s systems of support to the research and innovation. The study identified 1,893 research projects in the renewable energy area. The results highlight the small funding and a wide range of topics with priority for biomass energy and laboratory infrastructure. The data also indicate a discontinuity in the trajectory of disbursements and show a sharp decline in new projects in 2011 and 2012. |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2047&r=ene |
| By: | Dasso, Rosamaría (IFPRI, International Food Policy Research Institute); Fernandez, Fernando (Universitat Pompeu Fabra); Nopo, Hugo (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of electrification on educational outcomes in Peru by taking advantage of a program that rapidly increased electricity coverage in rural areas. Using household survey panel data from 2007-2010, we document that: i) girls living in treated districts are more likely to be enrolled in school, and this effect is larger among younger girls; ii) this positive effect on female enrollment does not translate into higher attendance rates; iii) households in treated areas spend more money on younger girls' education. In addition, we use school-level panel data from 2007-2012 on Math and Reading test scores to show that treatment is associated with a reduction in learning. But, among treated schools, longer treatment exposure increases scores in Reading for boys and girls; and improves performance in Math, only among boys. Finally, our estimates are robust to controlling for other confounding interventions. |
| Keywords: | education, rural electrification, Peru |
| JEL: | I25 O13 O15 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8928&r=ene |
| By: | Heindl, Peter; Schüssler, Rudolf |
| Abstract: | Measures of affordability are applied in practice, e.g., to assess the affordability of energy services, water or housing. They can be interpreted as measures of deprivation in a specific domain of consumption. The large body of literature on affordability measure has little overlap with the existing literature on poverty measurement. A comprehensive assessment of the response of affordability measures as a result of changes in the distribution of income or expenditure is missing. This paper aims to fill this gap by providing a conceptual discussion on the 'dynamics' of energy affordability measures. Several types of measures are examined in a microsimulation framework to assess their dynamic properties. Our results indicate that some measures exhibit odd dynamic behavior. This includes measures used in practice, such as the low income/high cost measure and the double median of expenditure share indicator. Odd dynamic behavior is attributed to definitions made with respect to higher moments of the expenditure distribution. Definitions that rely on a percentage share of expenditure relative to income or an absolute or relative income poverty line fare well from a dynamic perspective. |
| Keywords: | affordability measure,energy poverty,fuel poverty |
| JEL: | I32 D63 Q48 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:15019&r=ene |
| By: | Inna Semenenko (Volodymyr Dahl East Ukrainian National University, Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | Energy security is an important issue for Ukraine's sustainable development. The main goal of the article is to show the state of energy security of Ukraine, analyze its tendencies and challenges, reveal the impact of energy security on sustainable development of a country. The state of the energy security of Ukraine was analyzed with the help of data collection, processing and analysis. Data was taken from State Statistics Service of Ukraine, Ministry of Energetics and Coal Industry of Ukraine, other sources, and analyzed with the help of tools of statistics and economic analysis. Ukraine, being a developing country and experiencing war, political and economic crisis, struggles for energy security support. The present state of energy availability and consumption in the country influences its sustainable development and political stability, and is a significant restraint in country's survival. Despite the fact, that Ukraine has enough resources' deposits to provide itself with energy, it provides less than 50% of own demands and is dependent on Russia's resources. Production of energy in Ukraine is decreasing, but energy consumption remains high. Ukrainian industries are energywasteful and energy inefficient; the country has the leading positions in energy intensity of GDP. The article shows relation of energy sources and energy security of Ukraine to sustainable development, reveals dependency of Ukrainian energy security and indicates its main threats and ways out. |
| Keywords: | energy security; fuel and energy resources; sustainable development; energy efficiency; energy consumption |
| JEL: | F5 O20 Q01 Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2015:no22&r=ene |
| By: | Kojima,Masami; Koplow,Doug |
| Abstract: | Numbers ranging from half a trillion to two trillion dollars have been cited in recent years for global subsidies for fossil fuels. How are these figures calculated and why are they so different? The most commonly used methods for measuring subsidies are the price-gap approach -- quantifying the gap between free-market reference prices and the prices charged to consumers -- the inventory approach, which constructs an inventory of government actions benefiting production and consumption of fossil fuels. Practitioners are not faced with two choices. The two methods are complementary and should be used together -- price gaps cause distortions throughout the economy and quantification is needed for improving pricing policies; an inventory is useful for examining budgetary allocation. An inventory based on a full accounting framework for producer and consumer support estimates in fact captures price gaps as market transfers to producers or consumers. Differences in subsidy valuation arise from assumptions made to compensate for missing data and the scope of subsidy measurement. Having a common understanding of terms and standardizing calculation methods would go a long way in enabling comparison of subsidies across countries and sectors, benchmarking pricing, and assessing subsidy policies. Subsidy measurement should not be viewed as a one-off exercise to inform subsidy reform strategies. Just as subsidy reform in many countries does not have a clear end but is a continuous process of adjustment, so too is subsidy tracking. Devoting resources to data collection and analysis to track subsidies on a continuous basis can bring rich dividends by increasing transparency and enabling informed decisions. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory&Research,Markets and Market Access,Energy Production and Transportation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Transport Economics Policy&Planning |
| Date: | 2015–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7220&r=ene |
| By: | Vukica Janković (Faculty of International Relations, University of Economics, Prague); Helena Mitwallyová (Faculty of Economics, University of Economics, Prague) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the current situation in the energy sector in the Western Balkans. Since this region was affected by war a little more than a decade ago, the energy sector and in particular infrastructure requires additional investments in reconstruction and development. After democratic changes all countries have applied for membership in the European Union, and currently have a different status as an candidate or potential candidate with a clear orientation for membership in the EU community-28th. Given that energy is one of the sectors in which it is necessary to align the legal framework with EU legislation, guidelines of Energy 2020 - A strategy for competitive, sustainable and secure energy are binding for the countries of the Western Balkans. Hence, the use of renewable energy resources and reducing greenhouse gase emision are not only a necessity but also the obligation arising from the European perspective of the Western Balkan countries. In this paper we point to the potential and energy management capabilities of renewable energy resources. |
| Keywords: | Western Balkans, energy sector, renewable energy resources |
| JEL: | L95 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:0702515&r=ene |
| By: | Grinets, Irina (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, School of public policy, Center for raw materials economy); Kaznacheev, Pyotr (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, School of public policy, Center for raw materials economy) |
| Abstract: | Due to the recent drop in oil prices, there is a strong interest in the influence of the shale revolution on the global supply and demand of hydrocarbon fuels. Consequently, the attention of many economists and industry analysts is drawn to the technological, institutional and regulatory aspects of hydrocarbon production from shale deposits in the USA. The authors analyze factors facilitating the shale gas revolution in the USA, and find that in addition to the obvious factors, such as high prices for gas at the beginning of the 2000s, an important underlying factor was the high level of institutional development in the USA. This was characterized by a legal system that recognized property rights in mineral resources, the existence of a wide variety of business entities operating in the oil and gas sector (including small businesses), and a favorable tax regime. The article presents the results of econometric modeling that traces the USA’s transition from almost exclusively extracting conventional gas to the extraction of unconventional gas. |
| Keywords: | unconventional gas, shale gas revolution, innovative development, institutions |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:kazn02&r=ene |
| By: | Stelios Bekiros (IPAG Business School, 184 Boulevard Saint-Germain, 75006 Paris, France); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Alessia Paccagnini (Department of Economics, Università degli Studi di Milano - Bicocca - Milan) |
| Abstract: | Information on economic policy uncertainty (EPU) does matter in predicting oil returns especially when accounting for omitted nonlinearities in the relationship between these two variables via a time-varying coefficient approach. In this work, we compare the forecastability of standard, Bayesian and TVP-VAR models against the random-walk and benchmark AR models. Our results indicate that over the period 1900:1-2014:2 the time-varying VAR model with stochastic volatility outranks all alternative models. |
| Keywords: | Oil prices, economic policy uncertainty, forecasting |
| JEL: | C22 C32 C53 E60 Q41 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201518&r=ene |
| By: | Lux, Thomas; Segnon, Mawuli; Gupta, Rangan |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the Markov-switching multifractal (MSM) model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)-type models to forecast oil price volatility over the time periods from January 02, 1875 to December 31, 1895 and from January 03, 1977 to March 24, 2014. Based on six different loss functions and by means of the superior predictive ability (SPA) test, we evaluate and compare their forecasting performance at short and long horizons. The empirical results indicate that none of our volatility models can uniformly outperform other models across all six different loss functions. However, the new MSM model comes out as the model that most often across forecasting horizons and subsamples cannot be outperformed by other models, with long memory GARCH-type models coming out second best. |
| Keywords: | Crude oil prices,GARCH,Multifractal processes,SPA test |
| JEL: | C52 C53 C22 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fmpwps:31&r=ene |
| By: | Michel Aglietta; Étienne Espagne |
| Abstract: | The eurozone has been said to have caught a disease called "secular stagnation". Productive investment in the private sector fell by about 20% overall between 2007 and 2014, while private saving has surged, creating a huge gap between gross domestic savings and investment. The trajectory of actual GDP has decoupled from successive estimates of potential GDP, and there is no sign of a spontaneous short-term adjustment. The engineering of a powerful investment drive seems the only way out of this self-fulfilling low-growth trap. The European Union has already set investment objectives in the Climate and Energy Package. These targets cover four areas: renewable energy supply capacity, electricity distribution networks, energy efficiency in building renovation and urban mobility. Several financing tools need to be combined to tailor risk-sharing devices for investments in each of these sectors. First and foremost, is the integration of a high carbon price. However, as any sudden sharp increase in the overall carbon price would have a major (and politically unsustainable) impact on the rest of the economy, a core issue is how to create a transitory distinction between the carbon price included/paid by the existing capital stock and the carbon price included/paid by new low carbon investments. This can be achieved through a two-tier approach. First, for the four key sectors, a high notional carbon price is used to set an asset value on the carbon saved by new investments ("carbon asset"): these assets are accepted as repayment by central banks, and publically guaranteed. The ECB, by buying financial instruments issued by the low-carbon investors, creates a direct transmission channel to these areas of the economy. Second, fiscal measures ensure the carbon price catches up with the notional value, thus generating revenues that allow for the purchase of the carbon debt held by the central banks, guaranteeing the final budget neutrality of the process. By focusing on investments in these four sectors, the European output gap could be closed in the short run and a credible path opened to a low carbon economy. |
| Keywords: | Ecular Stagnation;Social Cost of Carbon;Certification;Low Carbon Transition |
| JEL: | Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cii:cepipb:2015-06&r=ene |
| By: | Yu Hao; Yi-Ming Liu |
| Abstract: | Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China's Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and foreign trade have grown rapidly. At the same time, China's Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions surged and China has become the world's biggest CO2 emitter. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between FDI, foreign trade and Carbon Dioxide emissions in China. Using a two-equation model adapted from Halkos and Paizanos (2013), the total impact of FDI on emission is divided into the direct and indirect impacts and estimated accordingly. The results suggest that the increase in per capita FDI helps to inhibit the growth of China's per capita CO2 emissions. Concretely, the dominating direct effect of FDI on carbon emissions is negative and the indirect effect is positive. However, for foreign trade, both direct and indirect effects on CO2 emissions are insignificant after taking consideration of potential endogeneity and introducing dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Direct Investment, Panel Data, CO2 Emissions, Direct and indirect impacts |
| JEL: | Q47 Q54 |
| Date: | 2014–09–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:biw:wpaper:72&r=ene |
| By: | Hottenrott, Hanna; Rexhäuser, Sascha; Veugelers, Reinhilde |
| Abstract: | Within the last few decades, rising environmental concerns, particularly about global climate change, have forced policy-makers to act in an effort to mitigate further harm. Yet though greenhouse gas emissions and the wasteful use of natural resources are detrimental to the environment, policy-makers are reluctant to enact any green legislation that might undermine national competitiveness. This is the main reason why governments often fail to agree on legally binding emissions targets on the international level. Many now see the solution to lie in the development of new environmental technologies, which promise to address environmental problems while maintaining a strong economy and competitiveness. This ZEW project examines the effects of environmental technology on competitiveness, especially as it relates to the governmental regulation of pollutants. A key determinant for the proliferation of green technology - and for tackling the environmental problems they are meant to solve - is whether they produce positive returns. |
| Abstract: | Wachsende Umweltbelange haben in den letzten Jahrzehnten den Druck auf politische Entscheidungsträger erhöht, Maßnahmen zur Verhinderung weiterer ökologischer Schäden zu ergreifen. Doch obwohl Treibhausgasemissionen und der verschwenderische Umgang mit natürlichen Ressourcen schädlich für die Umwelt sind, zögert die Politik, umweltfreundliche Gesetze zu implementieren, von denen Nachteile für die nationale Wettbewerbsfähigkeit befürchtet werden. Viele sehen daher die Lösung in der Entwicklung umweltfreundlicher Technologien, die ökologische Probleme lindern könnten, ohne die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit zu beeinträchtigen. Der Einfluss von Innovationen mit Umweltwirkung auf die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit ist Gegenstand dieser ZEW-Studie. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewpbs:12014&r=ene |
| By: | Rosario Turvey (Lakehead University) |
| Abstract: | This research explores an important yet under-investigated topic on Ontario’s small urban municipalities (SUMs) concerning green economy and development in relation to local initiatives and strategies for framing sustainable communities in Ontario, Canada. The research interest is on place making as a function of initiatives by local economies concerning green economy and community sustainability. Canadian communities are adopting environmental action strategies to protect natural resources and the environment on issues associated with climate change, resource competition and rising demands for social, cultural and economic development. Though many municipal jurisdictions have put in place Environmental Action Plans (EAPs) and Economic Development Strategies (EDS), these often operate in parallel, not in concert with each other to consequently transform places into ‘sustainable communities’. The research has three research objectives. The first objective is to increase understanding of the relationship between ‘green economy,’ sustainability and local development strategies for place making in sustainability context. The second is to contribute to an emerging research agenda on sustainability and economic prosperity of local communities. By understanding how environmental action plans and economic development strategies are linked toward sustainable development in SUMs, the tension between economic prosperity and sustainability can be clarified. Third, the research hopes to contribute toward policy research on local development and environmental sustainability in the medium- if not the long-term. The paper presents the results from the survey on green economy and development of environment and economic development professionals and practitioners from two case study SUMs in Ontario, Canada namely: Orillia and North Bay. The research adopted a ‘sustainable community development model’ as a framework to explore community efforts (local initiatives) as translated into local environmental strategies and priorities to pursue green development and sustainability. The research on SUMs involved a questionnaire survey and statistical assessment using Mann-Whitney U test and other quantitative spatial analysis. The aim of the survey was to determine how three components namely- green economy priorities, planning for green development and energy-related priorities are perceived by those engaged in the framing and implementing strategies, priorities and policies for building sustainable communities. The results from the survey indicated that local priorities and strategies for green economy and development are important components for sustainable community development. Not surprisingly, the survey found that key informants viewed the green economy priorities and strategies in their respective municipalities to be contributing towards community sustainability. |
| Keywords: | green economy, place making, community sustainability |
| JEL: | Q01 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:0200881&r=ene |
| By: | Hambel, Christoph; Kraft, Holger; Schwartz, Eduardo S. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model involving climate change. Our model allows for damages on economic growth resulting from global warming. In the calibration, we capture effects from climate change and feedback effects on the temperature dynamics. We solve for the optimal state-dependent abatement policy. In our simulations, the costs of this policy measured in terms of lost GDP growth are moderate. On the other hand, postponing abatement action could reduce the probability that the climate can be stabilized. For instance, waiting for 10 years reduces this probability from 60% to 30%. Waiting for another 10 years leads to a probability that is less than 10%. Finally, doing nothing opens the risk that temperatures might explode and economic growth decreases significantly. |
| Keywords: | Climate change economics,Carbon abatement,GDP growth |
| JEL: | D81 Q5 Q54 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:92&r=ene |
| By: | Christoph Hambel; Holger Kraft; Eduardo Schwartz |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model involving climate change. Our model allows for damages on economic growth resulting from global warming. In the calibration, we capture effects from climate change and feedback effects on the temperature dynamics. We solve for the optimal state-dependent abatement policy. In our simulations, the costs of this policy measured in terms of lost GDP growth are moderate. On the other hand, postponing abatement action could reduce the probability that the climate can be stabilized. For in- stance, waiting for 10 years reduces this probability from 60% to 30%. Waiting for another 10 years leads to a probability that is less than 10%. Finally, doing nothing opens the risk that temperatures might explode and economic growth decreases significantly. |
| JEL: | D81 Q54 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21044&r=ene |
| By: | Tomas Havranek; Zuzana Irsova; Karel Janda; David Zilberman |
| Abstract: | We examine potential selective reporting in the literature on the social cost of carbon (SCC) by conducting a meta-analysis of 809 estimates of the SCC reported in 101 studies. Our results indicate that estimates for which the 95% confidence interval includes zero are less likely to be reported than estimates excluding negative values of the SCC, which might create an upward bias in the literature. The evidence for selective reporting is stronger for studies published in peer-reviewed journals than for unpublished papers. We show that the findings are not driven by the asymmetry of the confidence intervals surrounding the SCC and are robust to controlling for various characteristics of study design and to alternative definitions of confidence intervals. Our estimates of the mean reported SCC corrected for the selective reporting bias are imprecise and range between USD 0 and 130 per ton of carbon at 2010 prices for emission year 2015. |
| Keywords: | social cost of carbon; climate policy; integrated assessment models; meta-analysis; selective reporting; publication bias; |
| JEL: | C83 Q54 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp533&r=ene |
| By: | Carlos Henrique Vieira Santana |
| Abstract: | Por meio do conceito de capacidades estatais, este trabalho procura avaliar de forma comparada as políticas de infraestrutura energética adotadas por Brasil, Rússia, Índia e China (BRIC) nos últimos vinte anos. Para isto, o trabalho procurou analisar três aspectos: os dilemas federativos na coordenação das políticas, os instrumentos de financiamento público no crédito de longo prazo e a coesão burocrática como sustentáculo da implementação das políticas. Through the concept of state capacity, this study aims to evaluate in comparative way the energy infrastructure policies adopted by Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) in the last twenty years. For this, the article analyze three aspects: the federative dilemmas in coordinating policies, public financing instruments in long-term credit, and bureaucratic cohesion as the mainstay of policy implementation. |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:2045&r=ene |
| By: | Zhu Liu; Kuishuang Feng; Klaus Hubacek; Sai Liang; Anadon, Laura Diaz; Chao Zhang; Dabo Guan |
| Abstract: | Abstract Knowing the carbon emission baseline of a region is a precondition for any mitigation effort, but the baselines are highly dependent on the system boundaries for which they are calculated. On the basis of sectoral energy statistics and a nested provincial and global multi-regional input?output model, we calculate and compare four different system boundaries for China's 30 provinces and major cities. The results demonstrate significant differences in the level of emissions for the different system boundaries. Moreover, the associated emissions with each system boundary varies with the regional development level, i.e. richer areas outsource more emissions to other areas, or in other words boundary 4 emissions are higher than boundary 1 emissions for rich areas and vice versa for poor areas. Given these significant differences it is important to be aware of the implications the choice of an accounting system might have on outcomes. |
| Keywords: | China |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qsh:wpaper:241231&r=ene |
| By: | Hawkins, Jacob; Ma, Chunbo; Schilizzi, Steven; Zhang, Fan |
| Abstract: | As the largest developing economy, China plays a key role in global climate change. Environmentally extended input-output analysis (EE-IOA) is an important and insightful tool seeing widespread use in studying large-scale environmental impacts in China: calculating and analyzing greenhouse gas emissions, carbon and water footprints, pollution, and embedded energy. Chinese EE-IOA are hindered, however, by unreliable data and limited resolution. This paper reviews the body of literature regarding EE-IOA for China in peer-reviewed journals and provides an overview of the articles, examining their methodologies, environmental issues addressed, and data utilized. This paper further identifies the shortcomings in using input-output analyses to gauge environmental impacts in China. Potentially fruitful areas of expansion in Chinese EE-IOA research are denoted, including under-researched environmental issues, underutilized methodologies, and techniques to disaggregate data to move beyond the limitations inherent in official Chinese input-output data. |
| Keywords: | China, input-output, disaggregation, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C67, D57, F18, O53, Q4, Q5, |
| Date: | 2015–03–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uwauwp:200175&r=ene |
| By: | Ball, Alastair |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on the consequences of foetal exposure to high levels of pollution for the risk of stillbirth, and for the long-term health and labour market outcomes of those that survive. Variation in in utero exposure comes from a persistent weather system that affected London for five days in December 1952, preventing the dispersion of atmospheric pollution. This increased levels of total suspended particulate matter by around 300%. Unaffected counties in England and Wales are used in a differences-in-differences design to identify the short and long-term effects. Historical registrar data for the nine months following the smog show a 2% increase in reported stillbirths in London relative to national trends. As foetal deaths often go unreported, the exercise is then repeated for registered births. The data show around 1600 fewer live births then expected in London, or a reduction of 3% against national trends. Survivors are then identified by district and quarter of birth, and their health and labour market outcomes observed at fifty and sixty years old. Differences-in-differences estimates show that survivors are in general less healthy, less likely to have a formal qualification, and less likely to be employed than those unaffected by the smog. |
| Keywords: | Atmospheric pollution; Great London Smog; Fetal exposure; Health; Education; Employment |
| JEL: | I10 I18 Q53 |
| Date: | 2014–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:63229&r=ene |
| By: | Proost, Stef (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven); van Dender, Kurt (OECD); Eliasson, Jonas (KTH) |
| Abstract: | In many economies, motor fuel taxes have long been the main instruments for generating tax revenues from the transport sector. Nowadays they are also rationalized on the grounds of reducing congestion, carbon emissions, local air pollution, energy dependency, and sometimes accident costs. However, for several reasons, there is now much debate about reforming or partially replacing these taxes. This debate raises several kinds of research questions, including efficient design of such tax instruments and what factors affect their design in reality, CTS organised an international symposium where recent research regarding these issues was presented. This report summarises some findings from the symposium. |
| Keywords: | Fuel tax; Vehicle tax; Transport pricing |
| JEL: | R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2015–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2015_008&r=ene |
| By: | Chaudhuri, Sarbajit |
| Abstract: | This theoretical note examines the usefulness of the Pigouvian tax policy in dealing with negative production externalities and in improving social welfare in a small developing economy. A two-sector, full-employment general equilibrium model with exogenous labour market imperfection is used for the analytical purpose where the sector that faces an imperfect labour market creates pollution through its production and lowers the efficiency of workers. The analysis finds that the socially optimal Pigouvian tax rate may not necessarily be positive and that it crucially hinges both on the degree of labour market imperfection and the scale of negative externalities that production of the dirty commodity generates. |
| Keywords: | Negative production externality; pollution; efficiency of labour; Pigouvian tax; social welfare; general equilibrium. |
| JEL: | D58 D62 H23 Q52 Q58 |
| Date: | 2015–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:63292&r=ene |
| By: | Karoline S. Rogge (Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (Fraunhofer ISI), Karlsruhe, Germany; SPRU – Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9SL, UK); Kristin Reichardt (Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | Reaching a better understanding of the policies and politics of transitions presents a main agenda item in the emerging field of sustainability transitions. One important require- ment for these transitions, such as the move towards a decarbonized energy system, is the redirection and acceleration of technological change, for which policies play a key role. Several studies of policies supporting environmental technological change have ar- gued for the need to combine different policy instruments in so-called policy mixes. However, existing policy mix studies often fall short of reflecting the complexity and dy- namics of actual policy mixes and the underlying politics of (re)designing them. In this paper we take a first step towards a more comprehensive, interdisciplinary policy mix concept for environmental technological change based on a review of the bodies of lit- erature on innovation studies, environmental economics and policy analysis. The concept introduces a clear terminology and consists of the three building blocks elements, proc- esses and characteristics, which can be delineated by several dimensions. Throughout the paper, we illustrate the concept using the example of the policy mix for fostering the transition of the German energy system to renewable power generation technologies. We argue that the proposed concept provides an integrating analytical framework for empirical studies analyzing the impact of the policy mix on environmental technological change and sustainability transitions more broadly. Finally, we derive policy implications and suggest avenues for future research. |
| Keywords: | Policy mix; policy strategy; instrument mix; policy making and implementation; consistency; coherence; credibility; comprehensiveness; environmental technological change; eco-innovation; sustainability transitions |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sru:ssewps:2015-12&r=ene |
| By: | Li, Teng (National University of Singapore); Liu, Haoming (National University of Singapore); Salvo, Alberto (National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | We examine day-to-day fluctuations in worker-level output over 15 months for a panel of 98 manufacturing workers at a plant located in an industrial city in Hebei province, north China. Long-term workers earn piece-rate wages, with no base pay or minimum pay, for homogeneous tasks performed over fixed 8-hour shifts. Over the sample period, ambient fine-particle (PM2.5) mass concentrations measured at an outdoor air monitor located 2 km from the plant ranged between 10 and 773 micrograms per cubic meter (µg/m3, 8-hour means), variation that is an order of magnitude larger than what is observed in the rich world today. We document large reductions in productivity, of the order of 15%, over the first 200 µg/m3 rise in PM2.5 concentrations, with the drop leveling off for further increases in fine-particle pollution. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that labor productivity across 190 Chinese cities could rise by on average 4% per year were the distributions of hourly PM2.5 truncated at 25 µg/m3. We also find reduced product quality as pollution rises. Our model allows for selection into work attendance, though we do not find particle pollution to be a meaningful determinant of non-attendance, which is very low in our labor setting. Subsequent research should verify the external validity of our findings. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, labor productivity, labor supply, PM2.5, environmental damage |
| JEL: | J24 Q52 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8916&r=ene |
| By: | Yu Hao; Hua Liao; Yi-Ming Wei (Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP), Beijing Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | To curb CO2 emissions, the Chinese government has announced ambitious goals to reduce the CO2 intensity of GDP, and the total target has been allocated to all Chinese provinces during the twelfth "Five-year Plan" period (2011-2015). Although setting the target allocation plan is an efficient way to achieve this goal, some key questions, including how the plan is designed, remained unanswered. From an economic perspective, this requires us to test for the existence of convergence in the CO2 intensity of GDP because the convergence is one of the most important intrinsic economic characteristics that policy makers should take into account: if the convergence exists, the provinces with a higher CO2 intensity of GDP tend to experience a more rapid reduction in the intensity and therefore could share a heavier burden of the intensity reduction. The existence of stochastic convergence and ¦Â-convergence is verified by employing different estimation methods and using various estimation specifications. As a result, the direct policy implication is that provinces with high CO2 intensity should be assigned tougher reduction targets to cut CO2 intensity at higher speeds, while the provinces with low carbon intensity should be allowed to reduce the CO2 intensity at a relatively lower speed. Because some social and economic indicators such as GDP per capita, industrial structure and population density may influence CO2 intensity, the policy makers should take all these factors into consideration to design reasonable reduction target allocation plan. |
| Keywords: | CO2 intensity of GDP, convergence, China, panel data |
| JEL: | Q47 Q54 |
| Date: | 2014–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:biw:wpaper:71&r=ene |
| By: | Sanguk Yu (Yonsei University); Hyunhoe Bae (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | The U.S. communities are experiencing economic hardship with plant or business closings contributing to high unemployment rates. In this circumstance, communities and local governments may prioritize economic recovery over environmental improvement, thereby weakening community and government pressure against nearby polluting plants. Under this weakened public pressure, plants may make less effort to reduce their emission. In an attempt to explore the concern, this study examines the impact of local economic downturn on nearby chemical plants’ toxic release reduction behavior. A total of 352 chemical use plants in upstate New York and their toxic release inventory data were traced for five years (2006-2010) and analyzed with local economic condition variables along with other socio-economic and regulatory environmental variables.Particularly, this study estimated the impact of local economic recession on plants’ behavior by adopting an alternative measure. Instead of plants’ simple toxic release levels, which could be also an outcome of plants’ production volume change, this study used an explicit measure of plant’s toxic release reduction efforts. The measure of plant’s reduction effort was constructed based on Berrone and Gomez-Mejia’s 2009 study, whose effort measure considers both toxic release level and production increase ratio. In addition, along with widely used economic recession measure—unemployment rates, this study also used plant/business closing rates of the community, assuming it is a more tangible and realistic indicator of the local economic condition community members recognize.The results show plants’ toxic release reduction effort, which incorporated both toxic release level and production increase ratio in its measurement, was reduced when unemployment and plant closing rates are high. The results imply declining economy weakens community pressure and governments’ monitoring/enforcement intensity by making them prioritize the recovery of local economy over pollution reduction/environmental conservation. The findings of this study may reveal the limitations of the recent regulatory approach, which employs a public pressure mechanism to achieve polluters’ better environmental performance, such as information-based regulation or voluntary programs. |
| Keywords: | Recession, pollution reduction effort, plant closing, unemployment, toxic release inventory. |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iacpro:0701680&r=ene |