nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2015‒01‒31
forty-two papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Oil Rent and Income Inequality in Developing Economies: Are They Friends or Foes? By Gaëlle Tatiana TIMBA ; Douzounet MALLAYE ; Urbain Thierry YOGO
  2. Do Social Norms Matter to Energy Saving Behavior? Endogenous Social and Correlated Effects By Toshi H. Arimura ; Hajime Katayama ; Mari Sakudo
  3. Economics of Oversized Cyclones in the Cotton Ginning Industry By Sotelo-Sosa, Sergio ; Acharya, Ram ; Funk, Paul
  4. Forging a global environmental agreement through trade sanctions on free riders? By Thomas Eichner ; Rüdiger Pethig
  5. Security Assessment and Optimization of Energy Supply By Tomasz Jasinski ; Agnieszka Scianowska
  6. Global environmental agreements and international trade: Asymmetry of countries matters By Thomas Eichner ; Rüdiger Pethig
  7. The Danish Agricultural Revolution in an Energy Perspective: A Case of Development with Few Domestic Energy Sources By Henriques, Sofia Teives ; Sharp, Paul
  8. On the effects of unilateral environmental policy on offshoring in multi-stage production processes By Schenker, Oliver ; Koesler, Simon ; Löschel, Andreas
  9. Informal environmental regulation of industrial air pollution: Does neighborhood inequality matter? By Klara Zwickl ; Mathias Moser
  10. Feeding the cities and greenhouse gas emissions: a new economic geography approach By De Cara, Stéphane ; Fournier, Anne ; Gaigné, Carl
  11. Hurricanes as News? A Comparison of the Impact of Hurricanes on Stock Returns of Energy Companies By Liu, Haiyan ; Ferreira, Susana ; Karali, Berna
  12. Designing an Index for Assessing Wind Energy Potential By Matthias Ritter ; Zhiwei Shen ; Brenda López Cabrera ; Martin Odening ; Lars Deckert
  13. Pouring oil over the Balearic tourism industry By Cirer-Costa, Joan Carles
  14. Oil, Uncertainty, and Gasoline Prices By Dongfeng Chang ; Apostolos Serletis
  15. Can Green Car Taxes Restore Efficiency? Evidence from the Japanese New Car Market By Yoshifumi Konishi Author-Name: Meng Zhao
  16. A Nodal Pricing Model for the Nordic Electricity Market By Bjørndal, Endre ; Bjørndal, Mette ; Gribkovskaia, Victoria
  17. Are the Non-Monetary Costs of Energy Efficiency Investments Large? Understanding Low Take-up of a Free Energy Efficiency Program By Meredith Fowlie ; Michael Greenstone ; Catherine Wolfram
  18. State aid and competitiveness of the hard coal mining industry in the European Union By Izabela Jonek-Kowalska
  19. Assessing the importance of technological non-CO2 GHG emission mitigation options in EU agriculture with the CAPRI model By Witzke, Peter ; Van Doorslaer, Benjamin ; Huck, Ingo ; Salputra, Guna ; Fellmann, Thomas ; Drabik, Dusan ; Weiss, Franz ; Leip, Adrian
  20. Monthly Report No. 1/2015 By Payam Elhami ; Mahdi Ghodsi ; Oliver Reiter ; Sandor Richter ; Roman Römisch ; Roman Stöllinger
  21. A Dynamic Game of Emissions Pollution with Uncertainty and Learning By Nahid Masoudi ; Marc Santugini ; Georges Zaccour
  22. What Are the Carbon Emissions Elasticities for Income and Population? Bridging STIRPAT and EKC via robust heterogeneous panel estimates By Liddle, Brantley
  23. The Relationship among Ethanol, Sugar and Oil Prices in Brazil: Cointegration Analysis with Structural Breaks By Bo, Chen ; Sayed, Saghaian
  24. Understanding volatility dynamics in the EU-ETS market By Maria Eugenia Sanin ; Maria Mansanet-Bataller ; Francesco Violante
  25. Effects of changes in electricity price on electricity demand and resulting effects on manufacturing output By Kwon, Sanguk ; Cho, Seong-Hoon ; Roberts, Roland Keith ; Kim, Taeyoung ; Yu, T. Edward
  26. Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? By Domenico Ferraro ; Ken Rogoff ; Barbara Rossi
  27. Competition among Coalitions in a Cournot Industry: A Validation of the Porter Hypothesis By L. Lambertini ; G. Piagnataro ; A. Tampieri
  28. Tradable Emissions Permits with Offsets By Nathan Braun ; Timothy Fitzgerald ; Jason Pearcy
  29. Evaluation of land use based greenhouse gas mitigation measures in Germany By Röder, Norbert ; Henseler, Martin ; Liebersbach, Horst ; Kreins, Peter ; Osterburg, Bernhard
  30. News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries By Rabah Arezki ; Valerie A. Ramey ; Liugang Sheng
  31. Impact of nonrenewable on renewable energy: The case of wood pellets By Xian, Hui ; Gregory, Colson ; Michael, Wetzstein
  32. Biofuels and vertical price transmission: the case of the U.S. corn, ethanol and food markets By Drabik, Dusan ; Ciaian, Pavel ; Pokrivcak, Jan
  33. Property Rights, Regulatory Capture, and Exploitation of Natural Resources By Christopher Costello ; Corbett Grainger
  34. Productivity, nationalization, and the role of "news": lessons from the 1970s By Cakir Melek, Nida
  35. Do State Emissions Testing Reduce Pollutants: A study of Florida Emission Laws By Ferro, Gabrielle ; Grogan, Kelly
  36. Consumers' preferences towards biodiesel in the Spanish transport sector: A case study in Catalonia By Kallas, Zein ; Gil, José Maria
  37. Power System Impacts of Electric Vehicles in Germany: Charging with Coal or Renewables? By Wolf-Peter Schill ; Clemens Gerbaulet
  38. Hidden climate change related risks for the private sector By Annette Brunsmeier ; Markus Groth
  39. Energy and Environmental Efficiency of Greenhouse Growers in Michigan By Dong, Zefeng ; Guan, Zhengfei ; Grogan, Kelly A. ; Skevas, Theodoros
  40. Energy Sugar Beets to Biofuel: Field to Fuel Production System and Cost Estimates By Haankuku, Choolwe ; Epplin, Francis M. ; Kakani, Gopal V.
  41. Oil and ethnic inequality in Nigeria By James Fenske ; Igor Zurimendi
  42. Will Adaptation to Climate Change be Slow and Costly? Evidence from High Temperatures and Mortality, 1900-2004 By Alan Barreca ; Karen Clay ; Olivier Deschenes ; Michael Greenstone ; Joseph S. Shapiro

  1. By: Gaëlle Tatiana TIMBA (Université Yaoundé II ); Douzounet MALLAYE ; Urbain Thierry YOGO
    Abstract: Using the most recent available data on a sample of 40 developing countries, this paper addresses the effects of oil rent on inequality. Mobilizing a dynamic panel data specification over the period 1996–2008, the econometric results yield two important findings. First, there is a non-linear (U-shaped) relationship between oil rent and inequality. Specifically, oil rent lowers inequality in the short run. This effect then diminishes over time as the oil revenues increase. Our complementary finding is that the fall in income inequality as a result of the increase in the oil rent is fully absorbed by the increase in corruption. Further, the paper examines the channels of causality underlying this relationship. The graphical analysis shows the consistency of the data with the hypothesis according to which corruption, military expenditure, and inflation mediate the effect of oil rent on income inequality.
    Keywords: Oil rent, Inequality, developing countries, dynamic panel data, corruption
    JEL: O13 O15 Q32 D63
    Date: 2015–01
  2. By: Toshi H. Arimura ; Hajime Katayama ; Mari Sakudo
    Abstract: Social norms have received growing attention as a potential driver for pro-environmental behavior, partly due to ample evidence based on survey data. Using data from a Japanese household survey on energy saving behavior, we estimate a structural model of social interactions that account for methodological issues inherent in survey data, namely: simultaneity, common shocks and nonrandom group selection. We find that the influence of social norms on energy saving behavior is small or insignificant, while estimates from standard methods in the literature are found to be large and highly significant. Our results suggest that evidence in previous survey-based studies may reflect correlation in unobserved characteristics between members in a group, not the influence of social norms. Length: 34 pages
  3. By: Sotelo-Sosa, Sergio ; Acharya, Ram ; Funk, Paul
    Abstract: Cost of reducing pollution to meet increasingly stringent air quality standards particularly for the U.S. cotton ginning industry is rising overtime. Most industry participants use cyclones to control air pollutants. These cyclones have no moving parts and their initial investment costs are relatively low. However, they require a substantial amount of energy to run them. Since the electricity rates are rising, the ginning industry is constantly looking for opportunities to increase cyclone operating efficiency and reduce the cost of complying with the local, state, and federal air pollution standards. Dust particles of size PM10 and PM2.5 are the pollutants of main concern for the industry. Researchers in the USDA’s Southwest Ginning Lab in Las Cruces are conducting experiments to evaluate whether using bigger diameter cyclones at lower inlet velocities can reduce the energy costs. If these experiments show that the bigger diameter cyclones can achieve the same level of air pollution control, it may substantially reduce energy cost and boost ginning industry profitability. This study uses the results from the ginning lab to evaluate the impact of using bigger cyclones at lower inlet velocity to reduce energy use, decrease emission, and increase profitability of the ginning industry.
    Keywords: Agribusiness, Environmental Economics and Policy, Financial Economics, Health Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2014
  4. By: Thomas Eichner ; Rüdiger Pethig
    Abstract: This paper studies the formation of self-enforcing global environmental agreements in a world economy with international trade and two groups of countries that differ with respect to fuel demand and environmental damage. It investigates whether the signatories’ threat to embargo (potential) free riders secures all countries’ participation in the agreement. Resorting to numerical analysis, we find that an embargo may be unnecessary, ineffective or even counterproductive - depending on the degree of asymmetry and other parameters. On some subset of parameters, the embargo stabilizes the otherwise unstable global agreement, but the threat of embargo is not credible. However, in some of these cases credibility can be restored by suitable intra-coalition transfers.
    Keywords: embargo, trade, asymmetry, free rider, fuel demand, climate damage
    JEL: F02 Q50 Q58
    Date: 2014
  5. By: Tomasz Jasinski (Lodz University of Technology, Poland ); Agnieszka Scianowska (Lodz University of Technology, Poland )
    Abstract: The question of energy supply continuity is essential from the perspective of the functioning of society and the economy today. The study describes modern methods of forecasting emergency situations using Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools, especially neural networks. It examines the structure of a properly functioning model in the areas of input data selection, network topology and learning algorithms, analyzes the functioning of an energy market built on the basis of a reserve market, and discusses the possibilities of economic optimization of such a model, including the question of safety.
    Keywords: energy supply, security, neural networks, operating reserve
    JEL: Q40 Q47 C45 C53
    Date: 2014–12
  6. By: Thomas Eichner ; Rüdiger Pethig
    Abstract: We investigate the formation of global climate agreements (= stable grand climate coalitions) in a model, in which climate policy takes the form of carbon emission taxation and fossil fuel and consumption goods are traded on world markets. We expand the model of Eichner and Pethig (2014) by considering countries that are identical within each of two groups but differ across groups with respect to climate damage or fossil fuel demand. Our numerical analysis suggests that climate damage asymmetry tends to discourage cooperation in the grand coalition. The effects of fuel-demand asymmetry depend on fossil fuel abundance. If fuel is very abundant, the grand coalition fails to be stable independent of the degree of fuel demand asymmetry. If fuel is sufficiently scarce, low degrees of fuel demand asymmetry discourage cooperation whereas higher degrees of asymmetry stabilize the grand coalition.
    Keywords: fuel demand, climate damage, international trade, asymmetry, stability, grand coalition
    JEL: C72 F02 Q50 Q58
    Date: 2014
  7. By: Henriques, Sofia Teives (University of Southern Denmark ); Sharp, Paul (University of Southern Denmark )
    Abstract: We examine the case of Denmark - a country which historically had next to no domestic energy resources - for which we present new historical energy accounts for the years 1800-1913. We demonstrate that Denmark’s take off at the end of the nineteenth century was relatively energy dependent. We relate this to her well-known agricultural transformation and development through the dairy industry, and thus complement the literature which argues that expensive energy hindered industrialization, by arguing that similar obstacles would have precluded other countries from a more agriculture-based growth. The Danish cooperative creameries, which spread throughout the country over the last two decades of the nineteenth century, were dependent on coal. Although Denmark had next to no domestic coal deposits, we demonstrate that her geography allowed cheap availability throughout the country through imports. On top of this we emphasize that another important source of energy was imported feed for the cows.
    Keywords: Coal, Denmark, energy transition, agriculture
    Date: 2015
  8. By: Schenker, Oliver ; Koesler, Simon ; Löschel, Andreas
    Abstract: In the last decades supply chains emerged that stretch across many countries. This has been explained with decreasing trade and communication costs. We extend the literature by analyzing if and how unilateral environmental regulation induces offshoring to unregulated jurisdictions. We first apply an analytical partial-equilibrium model of a two-stage production process that can be distributed between two countries and investigate unilateral emission pricing and its supplementation with border carbon taxes. To get a more comprehensive picture, we subsequently apply a computable general equilibrium model that includes a better representation of international supply chains. We find heterogeneous, but mostly positive effects of a unilateral carbon emission reduction by the European Union on the degree of vertical specialisation of European industries and explain these differences by heterogeneity in the emission-intensity and pre-policy vertical specialisation of sectors. Border taxes are successful in protecting upstream industries, but with negative side effects for downstream industries.
    Keywords: Unilateral Climate Policy,Border Carbon Taxes,Vertical Specialisation,Offshoring,Outsourcing,Computable General Equilibrium
    JEL: C68 F12 F18 Q58
    Date: 2014
  9. By: Klara Zwickl (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria ); Mathias Moser (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria )
    Abstract: This paper analyzes if neighborhood income inequality has an effect on informal regulation of environmental quality, using census tract{level data on industrial air pollution exposure from EPA's Risk Screening En- vironmental Indicators and income and demographic variables from the American Community Survey and EPA's Smart Location Database. Estimating a spatial lag model and controlling for formal regulation at the states level, wend evidence that overall neighborhood inequality - as measured by the ratio between the fourth and the second income quintile or the neighborhood Gini coefficient - increases local air pollution exposure, whereas a concentration of top incomes reduces local exposure. The positive coefficient of the general inequality measure is driven by urban neighborhoods, whereas the negative coefficient of top incomes is stronger in rural areas. We explain these findings by two contradicting effects of inequality: On the one hand, overall inequality reduces collective action and thus the organizing capacities for environmental improvements. On the other hand, a concentration of income at the top enhances the ability of rich residents to negotiate with regulators or polluting plants in their vicinity.
    Keywords: Informal Regulation; Income Inequality; Collective Action; Industrial Air Pollution Disparities, Risk-Screening Environmental Indicators, Spatial Lag Model
    Date: 2014–11
  10. By: De Cara, Stéphane ; Fournier, Anne ; Gaigné, Carl
    Abstract: ’Buying local food’ is sometimes advocated as a means of reducing the ’carbon footprint’ of food products. This statement overlooks the trade-off between inter- and intra-regional food transportation. We investigate this issue by using an m-region, new economic geography model. The spatial distribution of food production within and between regions is endogenously determined. We exhibit cases where locating a significant share of the food production in the least-urbanized regions results in lower transport-related emissions than in configurations where all regions are self-sufficient. The welfare-maximizing allocation of food production does not exclude the possibility that some regions should be self-sufficient, provided their urban population sizes are neither too large nor too small.
    Keywords: Agricultural location, Transport, Greenhouse gas emissions, Food miles, Local food, Environmental Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2014–08
  11. By: Liu, Haiyan ; Ferreira, Susana ; Karali, Berna
    Abstract: Recent hydro-meteorological disasters have sparked popular interest in climate change and on its role in driving these events. This paper focuses on the information provided by hurricanes in shaping public perceptions towards human-induced climate change. Because CO2 emissions from combustion are a sizeable contributor to greenhouse gas concentrations, and their reduction is a key ingredient in any climate change mitigation strategy, we focus on the energy sector. We estimate the impact of hurricanes on the stock returns of the largest energy companies in the US. We consider the most notorious, damaging hurricanes over the last 25 years: Sandy (2012), Katrina (2005), Andrew (1992), and Hugo (1989). We categorize energy companies into five groups according to CO2 intensity: coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, and renewables. We find that the impacts of a given hurricane on the stock prices of energy companies differ by energy type. Compared to companies in the coal industry, companies in oil, natural gas and renewable energy industries all reveal significantly more positive cumulative average abnormal returns and the effect is the largest for renewables, followed by oil and natural gas. Similarly, the impacts of hurricanes on stock prices of energy companies differ by hurricane.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Energy Industry, Event Study, Hurricanes, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q540,
    Date: 2015
  12. By: Matthias Ritter ; Zhiwei Shen ; Brenda López Cabrera ; Martin Odening ; Lars Deckert
    Abstract: To meet the increasing global demand for renewable energy such as wind energy, more and more new wind parks are installed worldwide. Finding a suitable location, however, requires a detailed and often costly analysis of the local wind conditions. Plain average wind speed maps cannot provide a precise forecast of wind power because of the non-linear relationship between wind speed and production. In this paper, we suggest a new approach of assessing the local wind energy potential: Meteorological reanalysis data are applied to obtain long-term low-scale wind speed data at turbine location and hub height; then, with actual high-frequency production data, the relation between wind data and energy production is determined via a five parameter logistic function. The resulting wind energy index allows for a turbine-specific estimation of the expected wind power at an unobserved location. A map of wind power potential for whole Germany exemplifies the approach.
    Keywords: Wind power, energy production, renewable energy, onshore wind, MERRA
    JEL: Q42 Q47
    Date: 2014–09
  13. By: Cirer-Costa, Joan Carles
    Abstract: This study aims to predict the possible negative effects on the Balearic tourism economy of the exploitation of marine oil fields near its coastline. We describe the current business structure of the islands’ tourism industry and then focus on the various kinds of spills that might affect it. Our conclusion is that the exploitation of the oil fields will significantly damage the tourism industry: a series of small-scale accidents followed by a large spill could destroy the complex structure of Balearic tourism, and would have severe repercussions for the economy of the archipelago.
    Keywords: Oil spill; tourism; Balearics
    JEL: H41 H84 K32 Q34 Q52
    Date: 2015–01–07
  14. By: Dongfeng Chang ; Apostolos Serletis (University of Calgary )
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate the relationship between crude oil and gasoline prices and also examine the effect of oil price uncertainty on gasoline prices. The empirical model is based on a structural vector autoregression that is modifiÂ…ed to accommodate multivariate GARCH-in-Mean errors, as detailed in Elder (2004) and Elder and Serletis (2010). We use monthly data for the United States, over the period from January 1976 to September 2014. We fiÂ…nd that there is an asymmetric relationship between crude oil and gasoline prices, and that oil price uncertainty has a positive effect on gasoline price changes. Our results are robust to alternative model specifiÂ…cations and alternative measures of the price of oil.
    Date: 2015–01–20
  15. By: Yoshifumi Konishi Author-Name: Meng Zhao
    Abstract: We investigate the efficiency of vehicle taxation in second-best settings. A random-coefficients logit model is estimated for quarterly automobile sales data between 2004 and 2012 from the Japanese new car market. The quasi-experimental nature of the data is exploited in two ways. First, we construct the location of product-specific tax rates in the characteristics space as a set of instruments to control for endogeneity of observed car prices. Second, the large and persistent variation in effective vehicle prices, caused due to Japan's green car tax policy since 2009, are used to obtain consistent estimates of the own- and cross-price elasticities. Our results indicate evidence for substantial scale and composition effects: Though the policy successfully reduced sales-weighted average emissions, it also increased total sales substantially. Consequently, the policy-induced reduction in annual vehicle CO2 emissions was small. In contrast, a modified version of the emissions-based vehicle tax ¨¤ la Fullterton and West (2002), based on the fuel efficiencies of car models, could have reduced annual vehicle CO2 emissions substantially more while increasing total economic surplus relative to the no policy counterfactual.
  16. By: Bjørndal, Endre (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics ); Bjørndal, Mette (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics ); Gribkovskaia, Victoria (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics )
    Abstract: In the Nordic day-ahead electricity market zonal pricing or market splitting is used for relieving congestion between a predetermined set of bidding areas. This congestion management method represents an aggregation of individual connection points into bidding areas, and flows from the actual electricity network are only partly represented in the market clearing. Because of several strained situations in the power system during 2009 and 2010, changes in the congestion management method have been considered by the Norwegian regulator. In this paper we discuss nodal pricing in the Nordic power market, and compare it to optimal and simplified zonal pricing, the latter being used in today’s market. A model of the Nordic electricity market is presented together with a discussion of the calibration of actual market data for four hourly case studies with different load and import/exports to the Nordic area. The market clearing optimization model incorporates thermal and security flow constraints. We analyze the effects on prices and grid constraints and quantify the benefits and inefficiencies of the different methods. We find that the price changes with nodal pricing may not be dramatic, although in cases where intra-zonal constraints are badly represented by the aggregate transfer capacities in the simplified zonal model the nodal prices may be considerably higher on average and vary more than the simplified zonal prices. On the other hand nodal prices may vary less than the simplified zonal prices if aggregate transfer capacities are set too tightly. Allowing for more prices in the Nordic power market would make dealing with capacity limits easier and more transparent.
    Keywords: Nodal pricing; Zonal pricing; Congestion management; Electricity market simulation
    JEL: Q00
    Date: 2014–12–19
  17. By: Meredith Fowlie (University of California, Berkeley ); Michael Greenstone (University of Chicago ); Catherine Wolfram (University of California, Berkeley )
    Abstract: We document very low takeâ€up of an energy efficiency program that is widely believed to be privately beneficial. Program participants receive a substantial home “weatherization†retrofit; all installation and equipment costs are covered by the program. Less than one percent of presumptively eligible households take up the program in the control group. This rate increased only modestly after we took extraordinary efforts to inform households †via multiple channels †about the sizeable benefits and zero monetary costs. These findings are consistent with high nonâ€monetary costs associated with program participation and/or energy efficiency investments. 
    Keywords: energy, information economics
    Date: 2015
  18. By: Izabela Jonek-Kowalska (The Silesian University of Technology, Poland )
    Abstract: The hard coal mining industry in the European Union (EU) is in decline, mostly due to a lack of price competitiveness. It is maintained, to a great extent, by state aid; a key objective of the industry’s existence is to provide energy security and guarantee employment in the mining regions. In Poland, the hard coal mining industry is currently undergoing a serious crisis that threatens the two largest mining enterprises with bankruptcy. In addition, due to the European Union’s restrictions concerning the circumstances of granting state aid, these enterprises cannot count on the financial support for the repair restructuring that they used on a large scale until 2011. Therefore, in this article, the main objective is to determine the influence of state aid on the competitiveness of the hard coal mining industry in 12 countries of the EU, including Poland in specific. In order to achieve the stated objective, the article is divided into three parts. The first part consists of a literature review and legal regulations that are related to state aid for the hard coal mining industry in the EU are presented. The second part identifies the amount of state aid for the mining industry in the examined countries. Next, the influence of the state aid on the economic-financial conditions and competitiveness of the industry in the examined countries is examined. The third assesses the financial results of 24 Polish hard coal mines. The data of Eurostat and EURACOAL were used in the research. Furthermore, the primary data from the Polish mines of power hard coal were also used. The research methodology includes the indicators from the area of effectiveness and productivity assessment, as well as production quality assessment in the mining industry. The research results make it possible to extend knowledge in the range of the influence of the state on the competitiveness of the traditional industries and their restructuring.
    Keywords: state aid, competitiveness of industries, hard coal mining industry in Poland and the EU, Polish mining enterprises
    JEL: D22 E65 F30
    Date: 2014–12
  19. By: Witzke, Peter ; Van Doorslaer, Benjamin ; Huck, Ingo ; Salputra, Guna ; Fellmann, Thomas ; Drabik, Dusan ; Weiss, Franz ; Leip, Adrian
    Abstract: The European Commission started to reflect on a new policy framework on climate and energy for 2030. Identifying the best options for agriculture to contribute to future GHG emission reductions in the EU requires a comprehensive analysis of a wide range of possible policies, technological and management measures. In this context the CAPRI model has been further improved with respect to GHG emission accounting and especially regarding the endogenous implementation of technological mitigation options. In this paper we present the methodology of the new model features and highlight the importance of including endogenous technological GHG emission mitigation options in the model analysis. Results of illustrative emission mitigation scenarios show that different assumptions on the availability and uptake of technologies alter the scenario outcome significantly. The analysis indicates that possible negative impacts of mitigation policies on agricultural production and trade can drastically be reduced when technological mitigation options are available to farmers. This is a strong signal for enhanced research and development in the area of technological mitigation options, as well as policies that promote their diffusion.
    Keywords: GHG emissions, climate policy, CAPRI model, EU agriculture, mitigation, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,
    Date: 2014–08
  20. By: Payam Elhami ; Mahdi Ghodsi (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw ); Oliver Reiter ; Sandor Richter (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw ); Roman Römisch (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw ); Roman Stöllinger (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw )
    Abstract: Graph of the month Oil price and exchange rate of the Russian rouble, 2008-2014 (p. 1) Opinion corner Is Jean-Claude Juncker's EUR 315 billion European investment plan the proper answer to the EU's anaemic economic performance? (by Sándor Richter, Roman Römisch and Roman Stöllinger; pp. 2-4) How large should the EU budget be from the new Member States’ perspective? (by Sándor Richter; pp. 5-8) International economic sanctions the case of Iran (by Mahdi Ghodsi and Payam Elhami; pp. 9-13) The input-output table as a network (by Oliver Reiter; pp. 14-18) Recommended reading (p. 19) Statistical Annex Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe (pp. 20-41)
    Keywords: oil price, exchange rate, Russian rouble, EU budget, investment, grants, loans, EU budget, sanctions, energy, security of energy supply, export and import prices, multiregional input-output table, network, random walk centrality, connectedness of an industrial sector
    Date: 2015–01
  21. By: Nahid Masoudi ; Marc Santugini ; Georges Zaccour
    Abstract: We introduce learning in a dynamic game of international pollution, with ecological uncertainty. We characterize and compare the feedback non-cooperative emissions strategies of players when the players do not know the distribution of ecological uncertainty but they gain information (learn) about it. We then compare our learning model with the benchmark model of full information, where players know the distribution of ecological uncertainty. We find that uncertainty due to anticipative learning induces a decrease in total emissions, but not necessarily in individual emissions. Further, the effect of structural uncertainty on total and individual emissions depends on the beliefs distribution and bias. Moreover, we obtain that if a player’s beliefs change toward more optimistic views or if she feels that the situation is less risky, then she increases her emissions while others react to this change and decrease their emissions.
    Keywords: Pollution emissions, Dynamic games, Uncertainty, Learning
    JEL: Q50 D83 D81 C73
    Date: 2015
  22. By: Liddle, Brantley
    Abstract: Knowledge of the carbon emissions elasticities of income and population is important both for climate change policy/negotiations and for generating projections of carbon emissions. However, previous estimations of these elasticities using the well-known STIRPAT framework have produced such wide-ranging estimates that they add little insight. This paper presents estimates of the STIRPAT model that address that shortcoming, as well as the issues of cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneity, and the nonlinear transformation of a potentially integrated variable, i.e., income. Among the findings are that the carbon emissions elasticity of income is highly robust; and that the income elasticity for OECD countries is less than one, and likely less than the non-OECD country income elasticity, which is not significantly different from one. By contrast, the carbon emissions elasticity of population is not robust; however, that elasticity is likely not statistically significantly different from one for either OECD or non-OECD countries. Lastly, the heterogeneous estimators were exploited to reject a Carbon Kuznets Curve: while the country-specific income elasticities declined over observed average income-levels, the trend line had a slight U-shape.
    Keywords: Carbon Kuznets Curves; Kaya identity; population and environment; nonstationary panels; cross sectional dependence; nonlinearities in environment and development.
    JEL: C18 C23 O13 Q54 Q56
    Date: 2015
  23. By: Bo, Chen ; Sayed, Saghaian
    Abstract: Ethanol has gradually gain momentum in the world’s energy market in recent decades with Brazil the largest producers. The issue of price linkage among ethanol, sugar and oil is particular interesting and important in the context of Brazilian sugarcane sector. By accounting for the possible structural breaks in the data, we investigate the price linkage of the three commodities and discover that prices are not cointegrated in the first sub-periods but cointegrated in the second sub-period. Also oil price demonstrates weakly exogenous to the prices of the other two commodities; sugar prices appears to drive the ethanol price in the first sub-periods while in the second sub-period, they influence one another.
    Keywords: Biofuel, Break Points, Cointegration, Ethanol, Oil, Sugarcane, Price, Agribusiness, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2015
  24. By: Maria Eugenia Sanin (Université d'Evry Val d'Essonne ); Maria Mansanet-Bataller (Université Franche-Comté ); Francesco Violante (Aarhus University and CREATES )
    Abstract: We study the short-term price behavior of Phase 2 EU emission allowances. We model returns and volatility dynamics, and we demonstrate that a standard ARMAX-GARCH framework is inadequate for this modeling and that the gaussianity assumption is rejected due to a number of outliers. To improve the fitness of the model, we combine the underlying price process with an additive stochastic jump process. We improve the model's performance by introducing a time-varying jump probability that is explained by two variables: the daily relative change in the volume of transactions and the European Commission's announcements regarding the supply of permits. We show that (i) sharp increases in volume have led to increased volatility during the April 2005{December 2007period but not for the period beginning in January 2008, and (ii) announcements induce jumps in the process that tend to increase volatility across both periods. Thus, authorities face a trade off between disseminating information effectively and promoting market stability.
    Keywords: EUA market, EU ETS, carbon emission trading, Garch model, normal mixture
    JEL: C16 C32 C51 C53 Q52 Q53
    Date: 2015–01–12
  25. By: Kwon, Sanguk ; Cho, Seong-Hoon ; Roberts, Roland Keith ; Kim, Taeyoung ; Yu, T. Edward
    Abstract: Many countries are interested in reducing electricity consumption in connection with that the electricity demand has been increasing in recent years. Price control is often used as a method of controlling electricity demand in the short-term. However, even if price control causes to decrease in electricity use, the decrease in electricity demand results in a decrease in economic activity as electricity use plays a role in one of input factors. In this respect, this research analyze how changes in electricity price influence electricity demand, and how subsequent changes in electricity demand change production of manufacturing output, focusing particularly on how these relationships change over space. In this paper, we use the simultaneous equation based on Generalized spatial two-stage least squares model (GS2SLS) to examine the interrelationship among electricity demand, economic output, and electricity price. By assessing these relationships in one modeling framework, we evaluate electricity-price scenarios to help policymakers about electricity price decisions.
    Keywords: Manufacturing electricity demand, Spatial econometrics, Production output, Simultaneous model, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, C33, L94, Q4,
    Date: 2015
  26. By: Domenico Ferraro ; Ken Rogoff ; Barbara Rossi
    Abstract: We show the existence of a very short-term relationship at the daily frequency between changes in the price of a country's major commodity export price and changes in its nominal exchange rate. The relationship appears to be robust and to hold when we use contemporaneous (realized) commodity price changes in our regression. However, when we use lagged commodity price changes, the predictive ability is ephemeral, mostly appearing after instabilities have been appropriately taken into account.
    JEL: F31 F37 C22 C53
    Date: 2011–05
  27. By: L. Lambertini ; G. Piagnataro ; A. Tampieri
    Abstract: We determine the emergence of the Porter Hypothesis in a large oligopoly setting where the industry-wide adoption of green technologies is endogenously determined as a result of competition among coalitions. We examine a setting where the initial technology is polluting, firms decide whether to be brown or green and compete in quantities. We find that the Porter hypothesis may emerge as a market configuration with all green firms spurred by environmental regulation, even if consumers are not environmentally concerned. Finally, we single out the necessary and sufficient conditions under which the green grand coalition is socially optimal and therefore yields a win-win outcome.
    JEL: L13 L51 Q50
    Date: 2015–01
  28. By: Nathan Braun (Industrial Economics ); Timothy Fitzgerald (Montana State University ); Jason Pearcy (Montana State University )
    Abstract: This chapter extends the existing theory of tradable emissions permit markets to allow for tradable permits and offsets. Offsets are currently incorporated into the EU ETS, and in the future similar assets will likely become a feature of many pollution control systems. A model is developed with multiple compliance assets, offset quotas, and different transaction costs across compliance assets. Either offset usage quotas or additional transaction costs associated with surrendering offsets can lead to an equilibrium price difference between permits and offsets, as experienced in the EU ETS. Another result of the chapter shows that offset usage quotas alone cannot explain observed offset behavior in the EU ETS, but combining offset usage quotas with firm-level heterogeneity in transaction costs can be consistent with observed EU ETS behavior. Annual compliance data from Phase I and II of the EU ETS are used to support the consistency of the theory.
    Keywords: Pollution Control, Emission Permits, Emission Offsets, Cap and Trade
    JEL: Q52 Q53 Q54
    Date: 2014–02–26
  29. By: Röder, Norbert ; Henseler, Martin ; Liebersbach, Horst ; Kreins, Peter ; Osterburg, Bernhard
    Abstract: Agricultural production contributes 11% to the total German greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We evaluate the efficiency of three different land use based GHG mitigation measures: production of feedstocks for biomethane production, short rotation coppices and peatland restoration. We evaluate these measures with respect to cost efficiency (GHG mitigation costs), mitigation potential and impact on agricultural production. We use the regional supply model RAUMIS to investigate the different mitigation measures at the sector and regional level. We extended the modeling framework of RAUMIS to integrate the effects of leakage and indirect land use change. Compared to the production and use of feedstock for bio-energies, peatland restoration is the most cost efficient measure and has the least impact on German agricultural production.
    Keywords: agricultural production, regional supply model, agro-economic model, peatland restoration, bioenergy, Environmental Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2014–08
  30. By: Rabah Arezki ; Valerie A. Ramey ; Liugang Sheng
    Abstract: This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output–the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
    JEL: E00 F32 F41
    Date: 2015–01
  31. By: Xian, Hui ; Gregory, Colson ; Michael, Wetzstein
    Keywords: Nonrenewable, Renewable, Sustainability, Time series, Wood pellets, Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q21, Q31, Q40,
    Date: 2015
  32. By: Drabik, Dusan ; Ciaian, Pavel ; Pokrivcak, Jan
    Abstract: This is the first paper to analyze the impact of biofuels on the price transmission along the food chain. Specifically, we analyze the U.S. corn sector and its vertical links to food and ethanol markets. The key result of this paper is that the presence of biofuels affects the price transmission elasticity only when the blender's tax credit is binding and the shock originates in the food market. Our another important result is that the response of corn and food prices to exogenous shocks in the corn or food markets is always lower in the presence of biofuels when the tax credit is binding. However, the results are mixed for the binding mandate. The sensitivity analyses indicate that our results are robust to different assumptions about the model parameters.
    Keywords: price transmission, food chain, biofuels, prices, Demand and Price Analysis, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2014–08
  33. By: Christopher Costello ; Corbett Grainger
    Abstract: We study how the strength of property rights to individual extractive firms affects a regulator’s choice over exploitation rates for a natural resource. The regulator is modeled as an intermediary between current and future resource harvesters, rather than between producers and consumers, as in the traditional regulatory capture paradigm. When incumbent resource users have weak property rights, they have an incentive to pressure the regulator to allow resource extraction at an inefficiently rapid rate. In contrast, when property rights are strong, this incentive is minimized or eliminated. We build a theoretical model in which different property right institutions can be compared for their incentives to exert influence on the regulator. The main theoretical prediction - that stronger individual property rights will lead the regulator to choose more economically efficient extraction paths - is tested empirically with a novel panel data set from global fisheries. Exploiting the variation in timing of catch share implementation in our panel data, we find that regulators are significantly more conservative in managing resources for which strong individual property rights have been assigned to firms; this is especially pronounced for resources that have been overexploited historically.
    JEL: H23 H41 L2 Q2 Q22
    Date: 2015–01
  34. By: Cakir Melek, Nida (Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City )
    Abstract: The number of occurrences of an old phenomenon, expropriation of foreign-owned property, had peaked in the 1970s, and virtually every significant oil-producing developing country had nationalized its oil. Nationalization again was on the rise in the 2000s. Using novel data, this paper examines nationalization and its effect on productivity. First, we document historical global trends in expropriations, and examine the effect from the 1960s to the 1990s in a sample of oil-producing developing countries. We show that nationalization brings significant productivity losses. Then, we focus on Venezuela, presenting new extensive and detailed data. In Venezuela, productivity fell sharply immediately ahead of nationalization. We suggest a less-explored channel through which nationalization affects productivity: in anticipation of nationalization, producers reduce exploration, lower employment, and increase extraction. Guided by a quantitative dynamic partial equilibrium framework for nonrenewable resources disciplined by features of the Venezuelan data, we then examine the effect of nationalization on productivity. A comparison of the simulated and time series shows that the carefully calibrated model can explain 84 percent of the productivity pattern over 1961-1980 in the Venezuelan oil industry.
    Date: 2014–06–01
  35. By: Ferro, Gabrielle ; Grogan, Kelly
    Keywords: Motor Vehicle, Inspection Programs, Emissions, Ozone, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy,
    Date: 2014
  36. By: Kallas, Zein ; Gil, José Maria
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyse the opinions, attitudes and willingness of consumers to pay for biodiesel as an alternative to diesel in Barcelona province. Data were gathered from face-toface structured questionnaires from 300 diesel car owners/users that regularly purchase fuel. A variation of the traditional choice experiments (CE) was used by excluding the price attribute from the design. In a subsequent contingent valuation (CV) exercise, respondents were asked to state their maximum willingness to pay (WTP) for their preferred choice sets using the “payment card” format. The relative importance of the attributes and levels were calculated by estimating a random parameter logit model. The results demonstrated, contrary to the literature in Spain, that consumers were not willing to pay for biodiesel, especially when its production may negatively affect food prices. The main limitation was that car manufacturers do not recommend its use. The public authorities are asked to work jointly with the automotive industry to address this drawback.
    Keywords: Biodiesel, Willingness to pay, Choice Experiments, Catalonia, Consumer/Household Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    Date: 2014–08
  37. By: Wolf-Peter Schill ; Clemens Gerbaulet
    Abstract: We analyze future scenarios of integrating electric vehicles (EV) into the German power system, drawing on different assumptions on the charging mode. We use a numerical dispatch model with a unit-commitment formulation which minimizes dispatch costs over a full year. While the overall energy demand of the EV fleets is rather low in all scenarios, the impact on the system’s load duration curve differs strongly between charging modes. In a fully userdriven mode, charging largely occurs during daytime and in the evening, when power demand is already high. User-driven charging may thus have to be restricted in the future because of generation adequacy concerns. In contrast, cost-driven charging is carried out during night-time and at times of high PV availability. Using a novel model formulation that allows for intermediate charging modes, we show that even a slight relaxation of fully userdriven charging results in much smoother load profiles as well as lower charging costs. Different charging patterns go along with respective changes in power plant dispatch. By 2030, cost-driven EV charging strongly increases the utilization of lignite and hard coal plants, whereas additional power in the user-driven mode is predominantly generated from natural gas and hard coal. Specific CO2 emissions of EV are substantially larger than those of the overall power system, and highest under cost-driven charging. Only in additional model runs, in which we link the introduction of EVs to a respective deployment of additional renewable generation capacity, electric vehicles become largely CO2-neutral.
    Keywords: Electric vehicles, power system, dispatch model, renewable energy
    JEL: Q42 R41 Q54
    Date: 2015
  38. By: Annette Brunsmeier (Climate Service Center 2.0, Hamburg, Germany ); Markus Groth (Leuphana University of Lueneburg, Germany )
    Abstract: Climate change related risks impact and challenge the private sector in many different ways. This also applies to risk drivers like a companies’ reputation and a changing consumer behavior. Since significant risk drivers for companies differ just as much as companies themselves, a sector specific guideline to evaluate possible climate change related risk drivers is indispensable. Further, a sector specific analysis on these risk drivers can foster cross sectoral cooperation, innovation and learning processes with regard to climate change related risks.
    Keywords: business sectors, CDP, climate change adaptation, climate change impacts, companies’ reputation, consumer behavior, industry studies, risk drivers.
    JEL: D12 L19 L20 L60 L70 L80 L90 Q40 Q51 Q54 Q59
    Date: 2015–01
  39. By: Dong, Zefeng ; Guan, Zhengfei ; Grogan, Kelly A. ; Skevas, Theodoros
    Abstract: Agricultural production in greenhouses is an important user of energy and can lead to greenhouse gas emissions. This study uses Data Envelopment Analysis to compute input-based technical efficiency measures and energy efficiency of Michigan greenhouse growers. A two-limit Tobit model is used to investigate the determinants of farmers’ performance. The empirical results indicate that Michigan greenhouse farmers do not use energy and other inputs efficiently. Farmers’ input-specific efficiency can be improved by adopting greenhouse film types other than double layer poly.
    Keywords: Horticulture, Data envelopment analysis, Energy use, Tobit model, Efficiency, Crop Production/Industries, Production Economics, Q12,
    Date: 2015–01
  40. By: Haankuku, Choolwe ; Epplin, Francis M. ; Kakani, Gopal V.
    Abstract: Energy beets (Beta vulgaris L.) meet the requirements for advanced biofuel feedstocks under the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. A mixed-integer programming model was constructed to determine the breakeven price of ethanol from energy beets, and to determine the optimal size and biorefinery location. The model, based on limited field data, evaluates Southern Plains beet production in a 3-year crop rotation, and beet harvest, transportation and processing. The optimal strategy depends critically on several assumptions including a just-in-time harvest and delivery system that remains to be tested in field trials. Based on a conversion rate of 26 gallons per wet ton and capital cost of $128 million for a 40,000,000 gallons per year biorefinery, the estimated breakeven ethanol price is $2.63 per gallon. The estimated beet delivered cost of $1.31 per gallon compares with the net corn feedstock cost ($1.17 to $1.74 per gallon in 2014). If for a mature industry, the cost to process beets was equal to the cost to process corn, the beet breakeven ethanol price would be $1.96 per gallon ($2.97 per gallon gasoline equivalent).
    Keywords: breakeven price, biorefinery, energy beets, Agribusiness, Crop Production/Industries, Production Economics, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q42, Q48,
    Date: 2015
  41. By: James Fenske ; Igor Zurimendi
    Abstract: Oil prices experienced in early life predict differential adult outcomes across Nigerian ethnic groups. Our difference-in-difference approach compares members of southern ethnicities to other Nigerians from the same birth cohort. Greater prices in a southern individual’s birth year predict positive relative outcomes, including reduced fertility, delayed marriage, higher probabilities of working and having a skilled occupation, and greater schooling. By contrast, health outcomes suffer, including reduced height and increased BMI. These microeconomic impacts can be explained by macroeconomic responses to greater oil prices. Relative Southern incomes increase, food production declines, maternal labor intensifies, and Southern conflict rises.
    Keywords: Commodity prices, conflict, early life, ethnicity, Nigeria
    JEL: I12 I15 O12
    Date: 2015
  42. By: Alan Barreca (Tulane University ); Karen Clay (Carnegie Mellon University ); Olivier Deschenes (University of California, Santa Barbara ); Michael Greenstone (University of Chicago ); Joseph S. Shapiro (Yale University )
    Abstract: This paper builds on Barreca et al.’s (2013) finding that over the course of the 20th century the proliferation of residential air conditioning led to a remarkable decline in mortality due to extreme temperature days in the United States. Using panel data on monthly mortality rates of U.S. states and daily temperature variables for over a century (1900-2004) it explores the regional evolution in this relationship and documents two key findings. First, the impact of extreme heat on mortality is notably smaller in states that more frequently experience extreme heat. Second, the difference in the heat-mortality relationship between hot and cold states declined over the period 1900-2004, though it persisted through 2004. For example, the effect of hot days on mortality in cool states over the years 1980-2004, a period when residential air conditioning was widely available, is almost identical to the effect of hot days on mortality in hot states over the years 1900-1939, a period when air conditioning was not available for homes. Continuing differences in the mortality consequences of hot days suggests that health motivated adaptation to climate change may be slow and costly around the world. 
    Keywords: adaptation, climate change, air conditioning, compensatory behavior, convergence, mortality
    JEL: H40 I10 Q40 Q50
    Date: 2015

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