nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2015‒01‒09
28 papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Does Better Information Lead to Better Choices? Evidence from Energy-Efficiency Labels By Lucas W. Davis; Gilbert E. Metcalf
  2. Intergenerational inequality aversion, growth and the role of damages: Occam’s rule for the global carbon tax By Rezai, Armon; van der Ploeg, Frederick
  3. Which Investors Drive the Development of Wind Energy? By Darmani, Anna; Niesten, Eva; Hekkert, Marko
  4. Technical Efficiency and CO2 Reduction Potentials: An Analysis of the German Electricity Generating Sector By Stefan Seifert; Astrid Cullmann; Christian von Hirschhausen
  5. Fuel Poverty is it harmful for health? Evidence from French health survey data By Jusot, Florence; Lacroix, Elie
  6. Understanding crude oil import demand behaviour in Ghana By Marbuah, George
  7. Unraveling the effects of environmental outcomes and processes on financial performance: A non-linear approach By Misani, Nicola; Pogutz, Stefano
  8. Optimal energy transition and taxation of non-renewable resources By VARDAR, N. Baris
  9. Modeling Peak Oil and the Geological Constraints on Oil Production By Okullo, S.J.; Reynes, F.; Hofkes, M.W.
  10. The Elephant in the Ground: Managing Oil and Sovereign Wealth By Van Den Bremer, Ton; van der Ploeg, Frederick; Wills, Samuel
  11. Urban Development and Air Pollution: Evidence from a Global Panel of Cities By Christian A. L. Hilber; Charles Palmer
  12. Energy and Emissions Conflicts in Urban Areas By Touria Abdelkader B. Conde; Fernando Barreiro-Pereira
  13. Electricity Demand and Supply in Myanmar By David Dapice
  14. The Role of Energy Productivity in the U.S. Agriculture By V.E. Ball; R. Färe; S. Grosskop; D. Margaritis
  15. The effects of energy costs on firm re-location decisions By Lucia Lavric; Nick Hanley
  16. The Fiscal Incentive of GHG Cap and Trade: Permits May Be Too Cheap and Developed Countries May Abate Too Little By Jørgen Juel Andersen; Mads Greaker
  17. Will skyscrapers save the planet? By Rainald Borck
  18. Resource Prices and Planning Horizons By Spiro, Daniel
  19. Energy Efficiency in Russia : Untapped Reserves By International Finance Corporation; World Bank
  20. Energy Transition to Renewables: Problems By Yuri Yegorov
  21. Identifying cost-effective deployment strategies through spatiotemporal modelling By Ummel, Kevin; Fant, Charles
  22. Systematic Analysis of the Evolution of Electricity and Carbon Markets under Deep Decarbonisation By Blyth, William; Bunn, Derek; Chronopoulos, Michail; Munoz, Jose
  23. Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth By Tiago Cavalcanti; Daniel Da Mata; Frederik Toscani
  24. Combing windpower and hydropower to decrease seasonal and inter-annual availability of renewable energy sources in Brazil By Johannes Schmidt; Rafael Cancella; Amaro Olímpio Pereira Junior
  25. Planning for Electricity Access By Debabrata Chattopadhyay; Rahul Kitchlu; Rhonda L. Jordan
  26. Rebalancing the EU-Russia-Ukraine gas relationship By Agata Loskot-Strachota; Georg Zachmann
  27. From Fuel Poverty to Energy Vulnerability: The Importance of Services, Needs and Practices By Stefan Bouzarovski; Saska Petrova; Sergio Tirado-Herrero
  28. Total Factor Energy Efficiency of Yangtze River Delta Region in China By Jiuwen Sun; Shanshan Li

  1. By: Lucas W. Davis; Gilbert E. Metcalf
    Abstract: Information provision is a key element of government energy-efficiency policy, but the information that is provided is often too coarse to allow consumers to make efficient decisions. An important example is the ubiquitous yellow “EnergyGuide” label, which is required by law to be displayed on all major appliances sold in the United States. These labels report energy cost information based on average national usage and energy prices. We conduct an online randomized controlled trial to measure the potential benefits from providing more accurate information. We find that state-specific labels lead to significantly better choices. Consumers invest about the same amount overall in energy-efficiency, but the allocation is much better with more investment in high-usage high-price states and less investment in low-usage low-price states. The implied aggregate cost savings are larger than any reasonable estimate of the cost of implementing state-specific labels.
    JEL: D12 H49 Q41 Q48
    Date: 2014–11
  2. By: Rezai, Armon; van der Ploeg, Frederick
    Abstract: We use the Euler equation to put forward a back-on-the-envelope rule for the global carbon tax based on a two-box carbon cycle with temperature lag, and a constant elasticity of marginal damages with respect to GDP. This tax falls with time impatience and intergenerational inequality aversion and rises with population growth and prudence. It also falls with growth in living standards if inequality aversion is large enough or marginal damages do not react much to GDP. It rises in proportion with GDP if marginal climate damages are proportional to output and has a flat time profile if they are additive. The rule also allows for mean reversion in climate damages. The rule closely approximates the true optimum for our IAM of Ramsey growth, scarce fossil fuel, energy transitions and stranded assets despite it using the more complicated DICE carbon cycle and temperature modules. The simple rule gets close to the social optimum even if damages are much more convex than in DICE.
    Keywords: climate damage specification; intergenerational inequality aversion; optimal energy transitions; Ramsey growth; SCC; simple rule; stranded assets
    JEL: H21 Q51 Q54
    Date: 2014–12
  3. By: Darmani, Anna (Department of Industrial Economics and Management, Royal Institute of Technology & Department of Business Administration, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid); Niesten, Eva (Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University); Hekkert, Marko (Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University)
    Abstract: In order to facilitate the transition to electricity sectors with low CO2 emissions, it is important to understand which firms invest in new renewable energy technologies, and which firms are responsive to energy policies. This study concentrates on the heterogeneous characteristics of investors in wind power that are embedded in the investors’ dynamic capabilities. The paper explores which type of investors display a positive reaction to the undifferentiated policy, and thus build up more assets in wind power. Empirical data is collected on investments in the Swedish wind energy industry in the Swedish tradable certificate system. The findings demonstrate that the cumulative wind power assets are indeed influenced by investors’ characteristics. Investors with a greater resource endowment, higher investment experience and a mixed generation portfolio hold higher share of assets in wind. The results also indicate that the investors’ age in the wind industry has a negative relation with the cumulative assets in wind, offering evidence on the important role of new entrants in this industry. This study offers insights for policy makers on which investors are responsive to the certificate system and invest in wind. It also implies that a more diversified set of policies could stimulate a greater variety of firms to invest in wind power.
    Keywords: Radical change; investors; electricity generation; dynamic capabilities; energy policy; wind power; incumbents; new entrants
    JEL: O31 O33 O38
    Date: 2014–11–18
  4. By: Stefan Seifert; Astrid Cullmann; Christian von Hirschhausen
    Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the technical efficiency of CO2 reduction potentials of German power and heat plants, using a non-parametric sequential Data Envelopment Analysis. We apply a metafrontier framework to evaluate plant-level efficiencies in the transformation of inputs into desirable (energy) and undesirable (CO2 emissions) outputs, taking into account different fossil fuel generation technologies. We dispose of a unique data set for coal-, lignite-, gas- and biomass-fired power plants from 2003 through 2010 that provides an unbalanced panel of 1459 observations. We find intra-group differences within energy generation technology, but natural gas fired power plants clearly have the highest efficiency. Furthermore, the analysis points to significant savings potentials for CO2 and fuel-input.
    Keywords: Electricity generation, non-parametric efficiency analysis, Germany, Panel 2003-1010
    JEL: L94 Q50 C14
    Date: 2014
  5. By: Jusot, Florence; Lacroix, Elie
    Keywords: France; Health; Fuel poverty;
    JEL: I18
    Date: 2014–12
  6. By: Marbuah, George
    Abstract: Crude oil importation is a major drain on the economy of Ghana, yet no study has attempted to analyse the determinants of crude oil imports. This paper brings to the fore an understanding of the key drivers of crude oil import demand. Using the autoregressive distributed lag modelling framework (ARDL), we estimate variant short-run and long-run import demand models for crude oil using time series data over the period 1980-2012. The results show that demand for crude oil is price inelastic in both the long and short term. Other important drivers of crude oil import are the real effective exchange rate, domestic crude oil production and population growth. Furthermore, real economic activity is found to be the most robust and dominant driver of crude oil demand with mixed estimates of inelastic and elastic coefficients in the short-run and long-run, respectively. Policy implications of our results are discussed.
    Keywords: Crude oil demand, import, determinants, cointegration, Ghana
    JEL: F10 F31 F41 Q11 Q48
    Date: 2014–10–24
  7. By: Misani, Nicola; Pogutz, Stefano
    Abstract: We examine the roles of the outcome and process dimensions of environmental performance in determining financial performance as measured by Tobin’s q. Outcomes refer to the impacts of the firm on the natural environment, while processes are the firm’s actions to reduce these outcomes. We focus on a specific outcome—carbon emissions—and suggest that it affects Tobin’s q non-linearly. We find that firms achieve the highest financial performance when their carbon performance is neither low nor high, but intermediate. We also find that environmental processes moderate this relationship as they reinforce firms’ financial performance through improved stakeholder management. This mixed picture suggests that firms do not generally internalize the costs of poor carbon performance, but those that stand out in both environmental outcomes and processes achieve net financial benefits. These findings are based on a sample of carbon-intensive firms that disclosed their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through the Carbon Disclosure Project from 2007 through 2013.
    Keywords: GHG emissions; climate change; environmental management; financial performance; Tobin’s q
    JEL: C21 L20 M13 Q20
    Date: 2014–11–21
  8. By: VARDAR, N. Baris (Paris School of Economics, France; Université catholique de Louvain, CORE & Chair Lhoist Berghmans in Environmental Economics and Management, Belgium)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the optimal taxation path of a non-renewable resource in the presence of an imperfect substitute renewable resource. We present an optimal growth model and characterize the social optimum and the decentralized equilibrium. We show that the economy gradually reduces the share of non-renewable resource and converges to a steady state in which it uses only the renewable resource. The decentralized economy converges to the same steady state as the social optimum in terms of capital stock and consumption whether there is a regulator intervention or not. What matters for welfare, however, is the speed at which the economy approaches the clean state - the energy transition, which determines the level of environmental damages. We obtain the optimal taxation rule and show that its time profile can be either always increasing, decreasing or U-shaped depending on the initial state of the economy. Finally we provide some simulation results to illustrate these theoretical findings.
    Keywords: energy, optimal taxation, non-renewable resource, renewable resource, imperfect substitution, simultaneous resource use
    JEL: Q43 Q38 Q30 Q20
    Date: 2014–07–03
  9. By: Okullo, S.J. (Tilburg University, Center For Economic Research); Reynes, F.; Hofkes, M.W.
    Abstract: We propose a model to reconcile the theory of inter-temporal non-renewable resource depletion with well-known stylized facts concerning the exploitation of exhaustible resources such as oil. Our approach introduces geological constraints into a Hotelling type extraction-exploration model. We show that such constraints, in combination with initially small reserves and strictly convex exploration costs, can coherently explain bell-shaped peaks in natural resource extraction and hence U-shapes in prices. As production increases, marginal profits (marginal revenues less marginal extraction cost) are observed to decline, while as production decreases, marginal profits rise at a positive rate that is not necessarily the rate of discount. A numerical calibration of the model to the world oil market shows that geological constraints have the potential to substantially increase the future oil price. While some (small) non-OPEC producers are found to increase production in response to higher oil prices induced by the geological constraints, most (large) producers’ production declines, leading to a lower peak level for global oil production.
    Keywords: Peak oil; Hotelling rule; Exploration; Reserve development; Geological constraints
    JEL: Q30 Q47 C61 C7
    Date: 2014
  10. By: Van Den Bremer, Ton; van der Ploeg, Frederick; Wills, Samuel
    Abstract: Oil exporters typically do not consider below-ground assets when allocating their sovereign wealth fund portfolios, and ignore above-ground assets when extracting oil. We present a unified framework for considering both. Subsoil oil should alter a fund’s portfolio through additional leverage and hedging. First-best spending should be a share of total wealth, and any unhedged volatility must be managed by precautionary savings. If oil prices are pro-cyclical, oil should be extracted faster than the Hotelling rule to generate a risk premium on oil wealth. We then discuss how the management of Norway’s fund can practically be improved with our analysis.
    Keywords: hedging; leverage; oil; optimal extraction; portfolio allocation; sovereign wealth fund
    JEL: E21 G11 G15 O13 Q32 Q33
    Date: 2014–10
  11. By: Christian A. L. Hilber; Charles Palmer
    Abstract: We exploit a unique panel of 75 metro areas ('cities') across the globe and employ a city-fixed effects model to identify the determinants of within-city changes in air pollution concentration between 2005 and 2011. Increasing car and population densities significantly reduce air pollution concentration in city centers where air pollution induced health risks are greatest. These effects are largely confined to cities in non-OECD countries. Two possible mechanisms for the negative effect of car density are explored: (i) increasing car density permits a decentralization of residential and economic activity; and (ii) car usage substitutes for motorbike usage. We find limited evidence in favour of (i) and no evidence in favour of (ii). We also observe a complex relationship between income and pollution concentration as well as a general downward-trend in pollution concentration over time. Overall, our findings are indicative that densely populated polycentric cities may be 'greener' and 'healthier' than comparable monocentric ones.
    Keywords: Urbanization, urban form, decentralization, air pollution, transport, built environment
    JEL: Q01 Q53 R11 R41
    Date: 2014–12
  12. By: Touria Abdelkader B. Conde; Fernando Barreiro-Pereira
    Abstract: The main aim of this paper is to observe the environmental behaviour in some cities of the word, by analyzing for each city the trends of several energy and emissions indicators that appear as explanatory variables in both energy and labour average productivity equations. At the same time we also consider the life expectancy at birth as an endogenous variable which be partially explained by these indicators to for observing the carbon dioxide (CO2) effects on the population health. To quantify how affect changes in carbon dioxide emissions, energy production and consumption on the some countries life expectancy, climate change, and labour and energy productivities, we used panel data techniques across some metropolitan areas with IEA annual data. Following the results concerning to the proposed indicators, the energy consumption per inhabitant and CO2 emissions by Km2 are highest around the oil producer countries like Qatar, Emirates and Kuwait, and among the High-Tech user countries like China, Japan, South Korea and Singapore. The more high energy productivity is in Japan, Singapore and Turkey. Only carbon dioxide emissions are addressed in this paper, but it does not address other emmissions such as NOx or SOx. In other hand, we assume by simplicity perfect competition in the good markets to can calculate an energy price indicator for the renewable and non-renewable energies in each city. The paper relates issues to central questions of international politics and theoretical debates concerning to the levels of consumption per head, carbon dioxide emissions/surface and the role of the renewable energies on the climate change and the wellbeing of the consumers. We classify the cities in Oil producers, Coal producers, High-Tech users, and Poor cities. Assumming perfect rationality in the energy producers, we can calculate the costs for change the use of fossil energies by renewable energies.
    Keywords: Emissions; Renewable Energy; Cities; Economic Conflicts; Political Conflicts. Class:
    JEL: Q01 Q42 Q47 Q53
    Date: 2014–11
  13. By: David Dapice
    Abstract: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) recently released an excellent report on Myanmar's energy sector. In it they presented estimates of future demand growth by the Ministry of Electric Power for electricity. They show demand doubling from 12,459 million kWh in 2012-13 to 25,683 million kWh in 2018-19, a compound rate of growth of 13% a year. However, the actual production in 2012 appears to be only 10,000 million kWh, and it is unlikely that moving to 2013-13 will raise th total that much beyond 10,500 million kWh. Of this output, about 1700 million kWh will be exported. (Electricity exports exceeded 1700 million KWh in both 2010 and 2011.) So, the likely electricity output in 2012-13 for domestic use will be 3659 kWh below this year's demand estimate. Production for domestic use would have to jump by 42% to equal the expected demand. This is a massive shortfall and demand grows by over 1500 million kWh in 2013-14. So for 2013-14, supply net of exports would have to grow by nearly 5200 million kWh to account for the existing shortfall and projected growth, or by nearly 60% over 2012-13.
  14. By: V.E. Ball; R. Färe; S. Grosskop; D. Margaritis
    Abstract: This paper investigates the role of energy on U.S. agricultural productivity using panel data at the state level for the period 1960-2004. We first provide a historical account of energy use in U.S. agriculture. To do this we rely on the Bennet cost indicator to study how the price and volume components of energy costs have developed over time. We then proceed to analyze the contribution of energy to productivity in U.S. agriculture employing the Bennet-Bowley productivity indicator. An important feature of the Bennet-Bowley indicator is its direct association with the change in (normalized) profits. Thus our study is also able to analyze the link between profitability and productivity in U.S. agriculture. Panel regression estimates indicate that energy prices have a negative effect on profitability in the U.S. agricultural sector. We also find that energy productivity has generally remained below total farm productivity following the 1973-1974 global energy crisis.
    Keywords: Energy, Bennet-Bowley indicator, Agricultural productivity
    Date: 2014–11
  15. By: Lucia Lavric (Department of Economics, Duke University); Nick Hanley (School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St. Andrews)
    Abstract: Energy costs are partly driven by environmental policy choices. In this paper, the effects of variations in energy costs – as measured by end-user electricity prices – on firm relocation decisions are investigated. Using a discrete choice model a nd a data base which has not previously been exploited to study this problem, we investigate the effects of variations in energy costs both for a sub-set of re-locating European firms in terms of which country they move to; and then for a larger set of firms in terms of the decision to re-locate or not in response to higher energy prices. We find that energy costs play a significant role in determining relocation destinations, and that this effect is asymmetric between firms moving into and out of a country , and between high energy intensity and low energy intensity sectors. The findings of the paper have implications for the Pollution Havens Hypothesis, since they show the extent to which the effects of climate policy on domestic energy costs can be expected to impact on firm relocation decisions both into and out of a country.
    Keywords: firm re-location, energy costs, Pollution Havens Hypothesis, climate policy, carbonleakage
    JEL: D22 F18 Q41 Q52
    Date: 2014–08
  16. By: Jørgen Juel Andersen; Mads Greaker
    Abstract: The theoretical justiÖcation for a greenhouse gas (GHG) cap and trade system is that participants will trade emission permits until their marginal cost of abatement equals the equilibrium price of emission permits. However, for Öscally constrained governments this logic does not apply, as they have a Öscal incentive to let welfare concerns, rather than industrial cost effciency, guide their abatement policy. Then, global cost e¢ ciency will fail even if just a (small) subset of governments are Öscally constrained. Finally, we argue that any institutional change which breaks the connection between a governmentís abatement policy and its budget will increase welfare.
    Keywords: environmental policy, fiscal icentive, fiscal constraints, GHG cap and trade, welfare
    Date: 2014–11
  17. By: Rainald Borck
    Abstract: This paper studies the effectiveness of building height limits as a policy to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It shows that building height limits lead to urban sprawl and higher emissions from commuting. On the other hand, aggregate housing consumption may decrease which reduces emissions from residential energy use. The paper uses numerical simulation to show that total GHG emissions may be lower under building height restrictions. It also studies the effect of endogenous transport technology and the urban heat island effect.
    Keywords: greenhouse gas emissions; city structure; building height limits;
    JEL: Q5 R1
    Date: 2014–11
  18. By: Spiro, Daniel (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)
    Abstract: This paper shows that a seemingly simple assumption, regarding the time horizon of economic agents, can reconcile the puzzling long run price dynamics of exhaustible resources such as oil, gas and metals. It does so by exploring the possibility that economic agents use a rolling planning horizon, meaning that they make a plan over a finite number of years but update this plan on a regular basis. This behavior can be observed in the business plans of firms, in US social security and in the extraction decisions of natural resource owners. While leaving other macroeconomic models intact, when used in models of natural resources rolling horizon planning alters the outcomes. It has the effect of removing the scarcity consideration of resource owners, thus letting only operating costs and demand determine the extraction rate. This implies that extraction will be non-decreasing and resource prices non-increasing for a long period of time and that there will be no connection between the price growth and the interest rate - in line with the trends of a majority of exhaustible resources in the last century. A calibration of the model to the oil market yields a price which closely fits the gradually falling real oil price after WWII and the sharply increasing price after 1998. It further suggests that, while long run scarcity was not an important parameter on the oil market in the 20th century, it has been important in shaping the oil price from around 1998 and onwards.
    Keywords: Resource extraction; Oil price; Rolling horizons; Decision-making under uncertainty
    JEL: D80 Q31 Q41
    Date: 2014–05–30
  19. By: International Finance Corporation; World Bank
    Keywords: Environment - Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases Macroeconomics and Economic Growth - Climate Change Economics Energy - Energy Production and Transportation Energy - Energy and Environment Environment - Environment and Energy Efficiency
    Date: 2014–10
  20. By: Yuri Yegorov
    Abstract: What will come first ? non-acceptable global warming or extinction of oil reserves? Both processes can bring substantial costs to the mankind, but their order has important economic implications. The answer to this question will either lower oil price in the long run or will lead to its further rise. It is very important for Russian economy. From the global perspective, both dangers should be taken into account, and transition to renewable energies is the only remedy for both. However, the optimal speed of this transition depends on temporal dynamics of both threats that is highly uncertain at this moment. The goal of this paper is to review the problems with different renewable energies and to outlay different scenarios for the timing of major impact from global warming and oil peak. The problems with renewable energies have mostly economic origin. The global resources of hydropower are limited. While wind is already cheap, it should be balanced due to stochastic supply. Solar energy also needs to be balanced and is still relatively expensive. Oil products and their liquid renewable substitutes (biofuels) will thus remain an important compliment to electricity in the long run. However, biofuels are competing with agriculture for land, and thus can replace only a limited fraction of energy. The first signs of global warming bring the costs today and it comes as increased frequency of extreme weather phenomena (hurricanes, floods, etc). The rate of temperature increase has some range of uncertainty but it generally accepted that +2 degrees is an acceptable limit, and it might come in the middle of the 21st century. One of the policies to deal with it is not to extract all fossil fuels from the ground. However, it is highly likely that all oil will be extracted before global warming will have severe consequences. Since only biofuels can substitute oil in transport, given the current trend in transportation, peak oil can cause too much demand for biofuels, that will be dangerous for food security. Both the price of oil and biofuels would rise to such level, that current level of transportation will be impossible. This can cause resettlement of people to smaller cities. It is possible to conclude that while renewable energies represent a remedy, full transition will not be easy.
    Keywords: renewable energies; transition; problems; global warming; peak oil
    JEL: Q31 Q42 Q54
    Date: 2014–11
  21. By: Ummel, Kevin; Fant, Charles
    Abstract: South Africa hopes to expand wind and solar power. Success depends on how and where to deploy the technologies. This study develops a 10-year database of expected power generation for these technologies across South Africa. A power system model simulates
    Keywords: abatement cost, greenhouse gas emissions, low-carbon development, optimization, renewable energy, spatiotemporal modelling
    Date: 2014
  22. By: Blyth, William (Oxford Energy Associates); Bunn, Derek (London Business School); Chronopoulos, Michail (Dept. of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics); Munoz, Jose (Universidad de Castilla - La Mancha)
    Abstract: The decarbonisation of electricity generation presents policy-makers in many countries with the delicate task of balancing initiatives for technological change whilst maintaining a commitment to market liberalisation. Despite the theoretical attractions, it has become debatable whether carbon markets by themselves can offer a complete solution. We address this through a modelling framework, stylised for the GB power market within the EU ETS, which includes three distinct components: (a) a long-term least-cost capacity planning model, similar in functionality to many used in policy analysis, but innovative in providing the endogenous calculation of carbon prices; (b) a short-term price risk model producing hourly dispatch and pricing outputs, which are used to test the annual financial performance risks implied by the longer-term investments; (c) an agent-based model which uses a computational learning algorithm to derive pricing behaviour in imperfect markets. The results indicate that the risk/return profile of electricity markets deteriorates substantially as a result of decarbonisation, reducing the propensity of companies to invest in the absence of increased government support. Markets may adjust, if allowed, by deferring investment until conditions improve, or by consolidating to increase market power, or by operating in a tighter market with reduced spare capacity. To the extent that each of these ‘market-led’ solutions may be politically unpalatable, policy design will need to sustain a delicate regulatory regime, moderating the increasing market power of companies whilst maintaining low-carbon subsidies for longer than expected.
    Keywords: Carbon Trading; Electricity Markets; Risk; Investment; Market Power
    JEL: L94 Q42 Q48
    Date: 2014–12–12
  23. By: Tiago Cavalcanti; Daniel Da Mata; Frederik Toscani
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of oil discoveries on economic growth in Brazilian municipalities for the period from 1940 to 2000. It uses a unique identification strategy which exploits data on the drilling of approximately 20,000 oil wells in Brazil since oil explorations began in the country. We argue that oil discoveries are randomly assigned conditional on geological characteristics. The quasi-experimental outcome from drilling generates the treatment assignment: municipalities where oil was discovered during drilling constitute the treatment group while municipalities with drilling but no discovery are the control group. In our preferred specifications we find that oil discoveries increase per capita GDP by 25% over the 60-years period compared to the control group. Importantly, oil extraction has positive spillovers to other sectors of the economy. Services GDP per capita is estimated to increase by roughly 20% and urbanization by over 4% points. We show that the increase in services GDP per capita is mainly due to an increase in labor productivity. In line with intuition, these spillovers are present for onshore but not for offshore discoveries. Among other potential channels, the results are consistent with an increase in local demand for non-tradable services driven by the oil producing firm and highly paid oil workers.
    Keywords: Petroleum Industry; Economic Growth; Urbanization
    JEL: O13 O40
    Date: 2014–11
  24. By: Johannes Schmidt (Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, Department of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna. Programa de Planejamento Energético / Universidade Federal de Rio de Janeiro); Rafael Cancella (Programa de Planejamento Energético / Universidade Federal de Rio de Janeiro); Amaro Olímpio Pereira Junior (Programa de Planejamento Energético / Universidade Federal de Rio de Janeiro)
    Abstract: A high share of Brazilian power production comes from hydropower sources. A further expansion of power generation is necessary due to high growth rates in electricity demand. As an alternative to carbon intensive thermal power production and the expansion of hydropower in the ecologically and socially sensitive North of Brazil, windpower production could help to cover increasing levels of demand. Variability of wind is however often considered a major obstacle for further expansion. We assess the variability of potential windpower production in the four most important windpower producing states Ceará (CE), Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Bahia (BA) and Rio Grande do Sul (RS). Instead of focusing on hourly or sub-hourly variability, we assess the seasonality and inter-annual variability. This is important as hydropower production shows strong seasonality in Brazil and as inter-annual variation of hydropower production is high. We generate and validate time series of windpower production from wind speeds derived from measurements and two global climate models (NCAR reanalysis and ECMWF reanalysis). Our results show that seasonal variability of windpower generation in the North-Eastern states is anticyclical to hydrological seasonality in the South-East, North-East, and North of Brazil. Inter-annual variability is lower for windpower production than for hydro inflows. No consistent inter-annual relationship between the two sources of renewable energy can be found with the exemption of the state of Ceará which shows low positive correlation with hydro inflows. This indicates that although integrating windpower into the system may cause electrical problems due to very short term variability, seasonal and inter-annual variability is considerably decreased if windpower expansion is favoured instead of hydropower. Our results also show that ECMWF data may be the best source of long-term wind timeseries as it is better able to reproduce ground measurements than NCAR.
    Keywords: Windpower, Brazil, Seasonality, Inter-annual variability
    JEL: Q42
    Date: 2014–12
  25. By: Debabrata Chattopadhyay; Rahul Kitchlu; Rhonda L. Jordan
    Keywords: Environment - Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases Energy - Energy and Environment Science and Technology Development - Engineering Energy - Energy Production and Transportation Environment - Environment and Energy Efficiency
    Date: 2014–11
  26. By: Agata Loskot-Strachota; Georg Zachmann
    Abstract: The October 2014 agreement on gas supplies between Russia, Ukraine and the European Union did not resolve the Ukraine-Russia conflict over gas. The differences between parties in terms of objectives, growing mistrust and legacy issues make it unlikely that a long-term stable arrangement will be achieved without further escalation. Without EU pressure and support, Ukraine is likely to enter a new unfavourable gas arrangement with Russia, which could have repercussions beyond the energy sector. Key highlights: To reduce prices and increase the security of imports, the EU as a bloc should redefine its gas relationship with Russia and Ukraine and overcome the diverging interests of EU member states on second-order issues.Implementation of a joint strategy rests on enforcement of EU competition and gas market rules, a strengthened role for the Energy Community and the establishment of a market-based instrument for supply security.For Ukraine, the EU should serve as an anchor for comprehensive gas sector reform. Contingent on Ukraineâ??s reform efforts, EU financial and technical assistance, the enabling of reverse flows from the EU to Ukraine and pressure on Gazprom, should eventually enable Ukraine to obtain a sustainable gas-supply contract with Russia. This should make a sustainable and mutually beneficial Russia-Ukraine-EU gas relationship possible. However, during the transition, the EU should be prepared for possible frictions.
    Date: 2014–12
  27. By: Stefan Bouzarovski (School of Environment, Education and Development, University of Manchester; Department of Economic Geography, University of Gdansk, Poland); Saska Petrova (School of Environment, Education and Development, University of Manchester); Sergio Tirado-Herrero (School of Environment, Education and Development, University of Manchester)
    Abstract: This paper charts the emergent body of new approaches towards the research and amelioration of energy deprivation in the home. It starts from the premise that all forms of energy and fuel poverty – in developed and developing countries alike – are underpinned by a common condition: the inability to attain a socially- and materially-necessitated level of domestic energy services. Emphasizing the functionings and capabilities provided by energy use in the residential domain has led us to question binary divisions between the fields of ‘fuel poverty’ and ‘energy poverty’ within, respectively, the global North and South. In order to move towards an integrated understanding of energy service poverty, we rely on ‘systems of provision’ paradigms to highlight the multiple socio-technical pathways that prevent the effective fulfilment of household energy needs. Based on such approaches, the paper identifies the main components and implications of ‘energy vulnerability’ frameworks, whereby the driving forces of domestic energy deprivation are seen through a dynamic heuristic predicated upon issues of resilience and risk. Using recent developments in Hungary as an example, we employ energy vulnerability thinking to illustrate the systemic driving forces and implications of domestic energy deprivation.
    Keywords: energy services, energy vulnerability, energy poverty, fuel poverty, resilience, Hungary
    Date: 2014–12
  28. By: Jiuwen Sun; Shanshan Li
    Abstract: Energy is always the important material for economic growth and social development. A new index of energy efficiency called total factor energy efficiency (TFEE) consists of energy, capital, labor and other input that produce GDP as output. TFEE index is accounted by DEA through multiple input-output frameworks. Malmquist index measures productivity changing in two periods. Then decomposed the Malmquist index into efficiency change (EFFCH) and technical change (TECH) to estimate whether EFFCH or TECH influence TFEE. This paper analyze the energy consumption of two provinces and one city in Yangtze River Delta region, in terms of the quality of energy consumption and intensity of energy consumption. It shows that the increasing rate of energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta was slowing down by using the absolute quantity of energy consumed in the region and its proportion in the country. Then the total factor energy efficiency of the Yangtze River Delta region was estimated by using the Yangtze River Delta region's energy consumption and economic growth data during from 1992 to 2010, based on DEA-Malmquist. The changes of total factor energy efficiency can be decomposed in energy efficiency and find the energy efficiency trends. The empirical results show that the Yangtze River Delta region, due to technological progress and technical efficiency, pulls together all the elements of energy efficiency. With time as a dimension, from 1992 to 2008, the TFEE is greater than 1, which means that the TFP is increasing and reaches the efficient frontier in the Yangtze River Delta Region. In a deeper analysis, the trend of total factor energy efficiency shows a W pattern, with the high point appearing in 1998 and 2007 by 5.4% and 5.2% respectively. And the main cause is the technical progress. With region as a dimension, from 1992 to 2008, the TFEE of the provinces and one city in the Yangtze River Delta Region are greater than 1. It indicates that the TFE climbs and reaches the efficient frontier. However, in Shanghai the TFEE is 1.060 which is the highest, followed by Jiangsu and Zhejiang.
    Keywords: Energy consumption; Economic growth; Energy efficiency; DEA-Malmquist
    Date: 2014–11

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