nep-ene New Economics Papers
on Energy Economics
Issue of 2014‒08‒20
twenty-six papers chosen by
Roger Fouquet
London School of Economics

  1. Coal Mining and the Resource Curse in the Eastern United States By Stratford Douglas; Anne Walker
  2. What role of renewable and nonrenewable electricity consumption and output is needed to initially mitigate CO2 emissions in MENA region? By Sahbi Farhani; Muhammad Shahbaz
  3. Panel analysis of CO2 emissions, GDP, energy consumption, trade openness and urbanization for MENA countries By Sahbi Farhani; Muhammad Shahbaz; Mohamed Arouri
  4. Economic Implications of the IEA Efficient World Scenario By Jean Chateau; Bertrand Magné; Laura Cozzi
  5. A note on the inefficiency of technology- and region-specific renewable energy support - The German case By Jägemann, Cosima
  6. Producing biofuels in low-income countries: An integrated environmental and economic assessment for Tanzania By Branca, Giacomo; Felix, Erika; Maltsoglou, Irini; Rincon, Luis E.; Thurlow, James
  7. Energy prices, technological knowledge and green energy innovation: A dynamic panel analysis of patent counts By Kruse, Juergen; Wetzel, Heike
  8. Adaptation to Climate Change: The Case of A Combined Cycle Power Plant By Asian Development Bank (ADB); ; ;
  9. Russia’s Oil and Gas Sector in 2013 By Yuri Bobylev
  10. How to manage a large and flexible nuclear set in a deregulated electricity market from the point of view of social welfare? By Pascal Gourdel; Maria Lykidi
  11. Return and volatility transmission between oil prices and oil-exporting and oil-importing countries By Khaled Guesmi; Salma Fattoum
  12. Oil price impact on financial markets: By Anna Creti; Zied Ftiti; Khaled Guesmi
  13. European experiences with white certificate obligations: A critical review of existing evaluations By Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet; D. Finon
  14. Regionale Verteilungswirkungen des Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetzes By Growitsch, Christian; Meier, Helena; Schleich, Sebastian
  15. The hotelling model with multiple demands By GAUDET, Gérard; SALANT, Stephen W.
  16. Carbon Dioxide reducing Environmental innovations, sector upstream/downstream integration and policy. Evidence from the EU. By Massimiliano Mazzanti; Giovanni Marin; Susanna Mancinelli; Francesco Nicolli
  17. Energy Saving Obligations: Cutting the Gordian Knot of leverage? By C. Rhode; Jan Rosenow; Nick Eyre; Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet
  18. Does oil price uncertainty transmit to the Thai stock market? By Jiranyakul, Komain
  19. Time-varying Long-run Income and Output Elasticities of Electricity Demand By Yoosoon Chang; Chang Sik Kim; J. Isaac Miller; Joon Y. Park; Sungkeun Park
  20. Gauging the nonstationarity and asymmetries in the oil-stock price links: a multivariate analysis By Heni Boubaker; Khaled Guesmi; Duc Khuong Nguyen
  21. Optimal Monetary Responses to Oil Discoveries By Samuel Wills
  22. Productivity Measurement with Natural Capital and Bad Outputs By Nicola Brandt; Paul Schreyer; Vera Zipperer
  23. Building SSPs for climate policy analysis: a scenario elicitation methodology to map the space of possible future challenges to mitigation and adaptation By Julie Rozenberg; Céline Guivarch; Robert Lempert; Stéphane Hallegatte
  25. Environmental campaigns and endogenous technology choice under international oligopoly By Eleni Stathopoulou
  26. Briquettes From Solid Waste: A substitute For Charcoal in Burundi By M. Mizero; Théophile Ndikumana; Céline Gisèle Jung

  1. By: Stratford Douglas (West Virginia University, College of Business and Economics); Anne Walker (University of Colorado at Denver, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: We measure the effect of resource sector dependence on long run income growth using the natural experiment of variation in coal endowments in a set of 409 relatively U.S. counties selected for homogeneity. Using a panel data set that extends over two separate boom and bust cycles (1970-2010), we find that coal dependence significantly reduces growth of per capita county income over the long run. These estimates indicate that a one standard deviation increase in the measure of resource intensity results in an estimated 0.7 percentage point drop in average annual growth rates. We also measure the extent to which the Appalachian coal resource curse operates by providing disincentives to education, and find that the education channel explains only about 15% to 40% of the curse.
    Keywords: Resource Curse, Natural Resources, Economic Growth
    JEL: Q32 Q33 O40 R11
    Date: 2014
  2. By: Sahbi Farhani; Muhammad Shahbaz
    Abstract: This study attempts to explore the causal relationship between renewable and nonrenewable electricity consumption, output and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for 10 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries over the period of 1980–2009. The results from panel Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) estimates show that renewable and non-renewable electricity consumption add in CO2 emissions while output (real Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita) exhibits the inverted U-shaped relationship with CO2 emissions, i.e. environment Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis is validated. The short-run dynamics indicate unidirectional causality running from renewable and non-renewable electricity consumption and output to CO2 emissions. In the long-run, there appears to be bidirectional causality between electricity consumption (renewable and non-renewable) and CO2 emissions. The findings suggest that future reductions in CO2 emissions might be achieved at the cost of economic growth.
    Keywords: Electricity consumption; Output; CO2 emissions; MENA region.
    Date: 2014–07–24
  3. By: Sahbi Farhani; Muhammad Shahbaz; Mohamed Arouri
    Abstract: This paper empirically parallels two approaches: The first one follows the studies of Halicioglu (2009), Jalil and Mahmud (2009), and Jayanthakumaran et al. (2012) which attempt to introduce energy consumption and trade into the environmental function (related carbon dioxide ‘CO2’ emissions to Gross Domestic Product ‘GDP’); whereas the second approach extends the single work of Hossain (2011) which attempts to introduce urbanization as a means to circumvent omitted variable bias. For 11 Middle East and North African (MENA) countries over the period 1980-2009, the empirical results appear to be relevant in light of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) literature based on the cointegrated and causal relationship. Policy implications indicate that: i) more energy use, higher GDP and greater trade openness tend to cause more CO2 emissions; ii) the inclusion of urbanization in the environmental function improves the final results and positively affects the pollution level; and iii) MENA countries should search the best policy which can stabilize the rise of growth GDP and trade openness, and which can also control the continuous increase in the use of energy.
    Keywords: Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) literature, Panel data analysis, Middle East and North African (MENA) countries
    Date: 2014–07–24
  4. By: Jean Chateau; Bertrand Magné; Laura Cozzi
    Abstract: In its 2012 edition of the World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) produced an Efficient World Scenario (IEA, 2012) to assess how implementing only economically viable energy efficiency measures would affect energy markets, investment and greenhouse emissions (GHG). The IEA analysis found that in order to halve global primary energy demand over 2010-2035, additional investments of USD 11.8 trillion in more efficient end-use technologies would be necessary. Using the OECD ENV-Linkages macro-economic model, this report simulates the economic and environmental impacts which the IEA Efficient World Scenario implies... Dans son Edition 2012 du « World Energy Outlook », l’Agence Internationale de l’Énergie a élaborée un Scénario pour un monde plus efficace (IEA, 2012) visant à déterminer comment des mesures d’efficacité énergétiques viable affecteront les marchés de l’énergie, les investissements et les émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES). L’analyse de l’IEA indique que pour diminuer de moitié la demande d’énergie primaire sur l’horizon 2010-2035, près de 11.8 trillions USD d’investissement supplémentaires dans les technologies plus efficace en énergie sont nécessaires. Utilisant le modèle ENV-Linkages de l’OCDE, ce rapport détaille les conséquences économiques et environnementales du Scénario pour un monde plus efficace.
    Keywords: computable general equilibrium, climate change policy, macroeconomic, energy efficiency, efficacité énergétique, équilibre général calculable, macroéconomique, politique du changement climatique
    JEL: D58 E2 Q43 Q54
    Date: 2014–06–11
  5. By: Jägemann, Cosima (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)
    Abstract: Renewable energy (RES-E) support schemes have to meet two requirements in order to lead to a costefficient renewable energy mix. First, RES-E support schemes need to expose RES-E producers to the price signal of the wholesale market, which incentivizes investors to account not only for the marginal costs per kWh (MC) but also for the marginal value per kWh (MV el) of renewable energy technologies. Second, RES-E support schemes need to be technology- and region-neutral in their design (rather than technologyand region-specific). That is, the financial support may not be bound to a specific technology or a specific region. In Germany, however, wind and solar power generation is currently incentivized via technology- and region-specific feed-in tariffs (FIT), which are coupled with capacity support limits. As such, the current RES-E support scheme in Germany fails to expose wind and solar power producers to the price signal of the wholesale market. Moreover, it is technology- and region-specific in its design, i.e., the support level for each kWh differs between wind and solar power technologies and the location of their deployment (at least for onshore wind power). As a consequence, excess costs occur which are burdened by society. This paper illustrates the economic consequences associated with Germany's technology- and region-specific renewable energy support by applying a linear electricity system optimization model. Overall, excess costs are found to amount to more than 6.6 Bn e2010. These are driven by comparatively high net marginal costs of offshore wind and solar power in comparison to onshore wind power in Germany up to 2020.
    Keywords: Technology- and region-specific renewable energy support; marginal costs; marginal value
    JEL: C61 Q28 Q42
    Date: 2014–03–30
  6. By: Branca, Giacomo; Felix, Erika; Maltsoglou, Irini; Rincon, Luis E.; Thurlow, James
    Abstract: This paper evaluates the greenhouse gas emissions and economic impacts from producing biofuels in Tanzania. Sequentially-linked models capture natural resource constraints; emissions from land use change; economywide growth linkages; and household poverty
    Keywords: biofuels, economic growth, greenhouse gas emissions, poverty, Tanzania
    Date: 2014
  7. By: Kruse, Juergen (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln); Wetzel, Heike (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)
    Abstract: We examine the effect of energy prices and technological knowledge on innovation in green energy technologies. In doing so, we consider both demand-pull effects, which induce innovative activity by increasing the expected value of innovations, and technology-push effects, which drive innovative activity by extending the technological capability of an economy. Our analysis is conducted using patent data from the European Patent Office on a panel of 26 OECD countries over the period 1978-2009. Utilizing a dynamic count data model for panel data, we analyze 11 distinct green energy technologies. Our results indicate that the existing knowledge stock is a significant driver of green energy innovation for all technologies. Furthermore, the results suggest that energy prices have a positive impact on innovation for some but not all technologies and that the effect of energy prices and technological knowledge on green energy innovation becomes more pronounced after the Kyoto protocol agreement in 1997.
    Keywords: Green energy technologies; innovation; patents; demand-pull; technology-push; dynamic count data model
    JEL: C33 O31 Q40 Q42 Q55
    Date: 2014–07–31
  8. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Regional and Sustainable Development Department, ADB); ;
    Abstract: This report aims to demonstrate how a rapid climate change impact assessment can be used to identify the possible impacts of climate change on a thermal power investment project. For this demonstration, the O MON IV Combined Cycle Power Station Project in Southern Viet Nam is used for illustrative purposes.
    Keywords: adb, asian development bank, asdb, asia, pacific, poverty asia, climate change, climate change impacts, climate impact assessment, climate change threats, climate change adaptation, energy, power plants, combined cycle power plants, energy projects, climate change impact assessments, power stations, energy investments
    Date: 2012–06
  9. By: Yuri Bobylev (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)
    Abstract: Oil and gas comprise the main sector of the Russian economy that continues to play a key role in shaping the state budget revenues and the balance of trade. In 2013, against the background of continuing high global prices for oil and gas, petroleum production in Russia reached its highest level since 1990, and the export of oil and petroleum products reached a historic high. However, there was then a slowdown in petroleum production and a worsening of conditions for its production. In 2013, in order to create appropriate conditions for the further development of the oil and gas sector legislative solutions were adopted involving tax incentives for the development of resources where oil recovery was difficult, the differentiation of gas production taxation and the application of a special tax regime for deposits being developed on the continental shelf, together with a liberalisation of the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG)?
    Keywords: Russian economy; oil world prices; oil production structure; oil and gas exports; tax regulation of the oil and gas sector;
    JEL: L71 L72
    Date: 2014
  10. By: Pascal Gourdel (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris); Maria Lykidi (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris)
    Abstract: In the case of a large nuclear set (like the French set), nuclear production needs to be flexible to adjust to the predicted evolutions of the energy demmand. Consequently, the dominant position of nuclear in the national energy mix makes it responsible for the overall equilibrium of the electricity system which is directly intertwined with social welfare. In a previous work, we looked at producers own profits (short-term, inter-temporal) considering the equality between supply and demand. Here, we proceed with a full optimization of the social welfare in an identical framework. Theoretically, the optimal production behaviour that maximizes social welfare is characterized by a constant thermal production and a totally flexible nuclear production given that the nuclear capacity is sufficient. Numerically, the significant amount of nuclear capacities compared with thermal capacities in the French electricity market leads to the same "paradoxical" production behaviour. Therefore, we conclude that social optimum is ensured within our model by investing sufficiently in nuclear capacity. The optimal production scheduling determined by the social welfare maximization problem and the optimal inter-temporal production problem are totally opposite.
    Keywords: Electricity power; nuclear power plant; flexibility; nuclear fuel stock; thermal generation; social welfare; total cost minimization
    Date: 2014–06
  11. By: Khaled Guesmi; Salma Fattoum
    Abstract: This paper provides further evidence of the comovements and dynamic volatility spillovers between stock markets and oil prices for a sample of four oil-exporting countries (United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela). We make use of a multivariate GJR-DCCGARCH approach developed by Glosten et al. (1993). The results show that cross-market comovements as measured by conditional correlation coefficients increase positively in response to significant aggregate demand (precautionary demand) and oil price shocks due to global business cycle fluctuations or world turmoil and oil prices exhibit positive correlation with stock markets.
    Keywords: oil prices, oil-exporting countries, conditional correlations, DCC-GARCH model.
    JEL: Q43 E44 G15 C1
    Date: 2014–07–24
  12. By: Anna Creti; Zied Ftiti; Khaled Guesmi
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to study the degree of interdependence between oil price and stock market
    Keywords: oil prices, stock markets, evolutionary co-spectral analysis
    JEL: C14 C22 G12 G15 Q43
    Date: 2014–07–24
  13. By: Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); D. Finon (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech)
    Abstract: White certificate obligations impose energy savings targets on energy companies and allow them to trade energy savings certificates. They can be seen as a means of internalizing energy-use externalities and addressing energy efficiency market failures. This paper reviews existing evaluations of experiences with white certificate obligations in Great Britain, Italy and France. Ex ante microeconomic analysis find that the obligation is best modelled as a hybrid subsidy-tax instrument, whereby energy companies subsidize energy efficiency and pass-through the subsidy cost onto energy prices. Ex post static efficiency assessments find largely positive benefit-cost balances, with national differences reflecting heterogeneity in technical potentials. Compliance involved little trading between obligated parties. Whether the cost borne by obligated parties was recovered through increased energy revenue could not be ascertained. Ex post dynamic efficiency assessments find that in addition to addressing liquidity constraints through subsidies, white certificate obligations seem to have addressed informational and organisational market failures. Confidence in these conclusions is limited by the fact that no econometric analysis was performed. Yet the lack of publicly available data, a counterpart to the rationale of the instrument of harnessing private financing, makes any empirical evaluation of white certificate obligations challenging.
    Keywords: White certificate obligation, energy savings, energy efficiency gap, static efficiency, dynamic efficiency
    Date: 2014–06–27
  14. By: Growitsch, Christian (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln); Meier, Helena (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln); Schleich, Sebastian (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)
    Abstract: The promotion of renewable energies in Germany by the Erneuerbare Energien Gesetz (EEG, Renewable Energy Act) leads to various distributional effects.
    Date: 2014–08–12
  15. By: GAUDET, Gérard; SALANT, Stephen W.
    Abstract: The purpose of this chapter is to provide an elementary introduction to the non-renewable resource model with multiple demand curves. The theoretical literature following Hotelling (1931) assumed that all energy needs are satisfied by one type of resource (e.g. ‘oil’), extractible at different per-unit costs. This formulation implicitly assumes that all users are the same distance from each resource pool, that all users are subject to the same regulations, and that motorist users can switch as easily from liquid fossil fuels to coal as electric utilities can. These assumptions imply, as Herfindahl (1967) showed, that in competitive equilibrium all users will exhaust a lower cost resource completely before beginning to extract a higher cost resource: simultaneous extraction of different grades of oil or of oil and coal should never occur. In trying to apply the single-demand curve model during the last twenty years, several teams of authors have independently found a need to generalize it to account for users differing in their (1) location, (2) regulatory environment, or (3) resource needs. Each research team found that Herfindahl's strong, unrealistic conclusion disappears in the generalized model; in its place, a weaker Herfindahl result emerges. Since each research team focussed on a different application, however, it has not always been clear that everyone has been describing the same generalized model. Our goal is to integrate the findings of these teams and to exposit the generalized model in a form which is easily accessible.
    Date: 2013
  16. By: Massimiliano Mazzanti (Department of Economics and Management, University of Ferrara, Ferrara (Italy) and SEEDS, Ferrara (Italy).); Giovanni Marin (CERIS-CNR, Milano (Italy).); Susanna Mancinelli (Department of Economics and Management, University of Ferrara, Ferrara (Italy) and SEEDS, Ferrara (Italy)); Francesco Nicolli (CERIS-CNR, Milano (Italy).)
    Abstract: Eco innovations in the climate change realm require pressures and knowledge from outside the firm's and sector's boundaries. The role of policies is well known, as a tool that potentially tackles two externalities: innovation and environmental market failures. Sector integration is also increasingly relevant for understanding the economic, environmental and innovation performances of countries. We integrate these two perspectives to provide evidence on the policy effects behind the adoption of eco innovations in EU sectors. We take a sector perspective by exploiting EU CIS data over 2006-2008. By using past CO2 emission intensity (CO2 on value added) as a proxy of policy stringency, we find that emission intensive sectors are more likely to adopt CO2-related eco-innovations. The aforementioned results are valid for both the economy as a whole and for industrial sectors specifically. We additionally show that not only environmental policies are important to sustain EI adoptions. Other 'external' drivers play a role. Looking at the role of inter sector integration and knowledge sources, we observe that sectors with more emission intensive upstream 'partners' eco-innovate more to reduce their CO2 footprints. The positive and significant effect of upstream emission intensity (supplier's emission intensity) is actually stronger than the effect of 'direct' CO2 emission intensity (policy effect).
    Keywords: environmental innovations, sector integration, induced effects, innovation adoption, NAMEA, Input output, EU, carbon abatement.
    JEL: O13 Q55
    Date: 2014–08
  17. By: C. Rhode (Fraunhofer - Fraunhofer Institute); Jan Rosenow (Environmental Change Institute South Parks Road - University of Oxford); Nick Eyre (Environmental Change Institute South Parks Road - University of Oxford); Louis-Gaëtan Giraudet (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech)
    Abstract: Better leverage of public funding is essential in order to trigger the invest-ment needed for energy efficiency. In times of austerity governments in-creasingly look at policy instruments not funded by public expenditure and Energy Savings Obligations represent one option. Because Energy Savings Obligations are paid for by all energy customers, the degree to which they are able to raise additional private capital for energy efficiency invest-ments is crucial with regard to the financial burden on consumers. In this paper, we systematically assess how successful Energy Savings Obliga-tions were in levering capital from parties other than the obligated entities including private investors and other public bodies. We analyse three countries with substantial experience with Energy Savings Obligations, identify the main design differences and the effect this has on the degree of leverage. We conclude that the design of Energy Savings Obligations largely determines the degree of leverage and that that there appears to be a trade-off between high leverage and additionality.
    Keywords: Energy Savings Obligation, Leverage, Financing
    Date: 2014–06–27
  18. By: Jiranyakul, Komain
    Abstract: This study investigates the impact of oil price volatility (uncertainty) on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Monthly data from May 1987 to December 2013 are applied to the two-stage procedure. In the first step, a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) model is estimated to obtain the volatility series of stock market index and oil price. In the second step, the pairwise Granger causality tests are performed to determine the direction of volatility transmission between oil to stock markets. It is found that movement in real oil price does not adversely affect real stock market return, but stock price volatility does affect real stock return. In addition, there exists a positive one-directional volatility transmission running from oil to stock market. It is also found that oil price movement and its uncertainty adversely affect two main sub-index returns. These important findings give some implications for risk management and policy measures.
    Keywords: Real stock price, real oil price, volatility transmission, emerging markets
    JEL: C22 G15 Q40
    Date: 2014–06
  19. By: Yoosoon Chang; Chang Sik Kim; J. Isaac Miller (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia); Joon Y. Park; Sungkeun Park
    Abstract: It is widely accepted that long-run elasticities of demand for electricity are not stable over time. We model long-run sectoral electricity demand using a time-varying cointegrating vector. Specifically, the coefficient on income (residential sector) or output (commercial and industrial sectors) is allowed to follow a smooth semiparametric function of time, providing a flexible specification that allows more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than either fixed or discretely changing regression coefficients. We fit the model to Korean data over 1995:01-2012:12 for the residential sector and 1985:01-2012:12 for the commercial and industrial sectors. The rapid development of Korea over this period provides a very clear case for allowing the coefficient on income/output to vary over time, but the essential modeling strategy is widely applicable.
    Keywords: electricity demand, income elasticity of demand, output elasticity of conditional factor demand, cointegration, time-varying coefficients
    JEL: C14 C22 Q41
    Date: 2014–06–03
  20. By: Heni Boubaker; Khaled Guesmi; Duc Khuong Nguyen
    Abstract: This paper shows the usefulness and relevance of the multivariate fractional cointegration in exploring the dynamic
    Keywords: oil prices, stock markets, multivariate fractional cointegration, c-DCC-FIAPARCH.
    JEL: C10 E44 G15
    Date: 2014–07–24
  21. By: Samuel Wills (Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies (OxCarre), Department of Economics, University of Oxford; Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM); Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Australian National University.; Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM))
    Abstract: This paper studies how monetary policy should respond to news about an oil discovery, using a workhorse New Keynesian model. Good news about future production can create a recession today under exchange rate pegs and a simple Taylor rule, as seen in practice. This is explained by forward-looking inflation. Recession is avoided by a Taylor rule that accommodates changes in the natural level of output, which closely approximates optimal policy. Central banks have an incentive to exploit oil revenues by appreciating the terms of trade, creating “Dutch disease” and a deflationary bias which is overcome by committing to future policy.
    Keywords: Natural resources, oil, optimal monetary policy, small open economy, news shock
    JEL: E52 E62 F41 O13 Q30 Q33
    Date: 2012–10
  22. By: Nicola Brandt; Paul Schreyer; Vera Zipperer
    Abstract: This paper presents a productivity growth measure that explicitly accounts for natural capital as an input factor and for undesirable goods, or “bads”, as an output of the production process. The discussion focuses on the extension of productivity measurement for bad outputs and estimates of their shadow prices, while the inclusion of natural capital is discussed in more depth in a companion paper. As bad outputs are the target of environmental policies, a productivity measure that does not take bad outputs into account will underestimate productivity growth, whenever countries devote some inputs to reducing bad outputs, thus improving the environmental impact of their production processes, rather than to increasing the production of goods and services. An adjusted productivity measures is needed in an analysis of the effect of bad outputs on productivity growth as otherwise the effectiveness of environmental policies in promoting production processes that make more efficient use of the environment will be wrongly assessed. Results suggest that the adjustment of the traditional productivity growth measure for bad outputs is small. While this partly hinges on the fact, that due to a lack of more comprehensive data, only a limited set of bad outputs are considered in this paper, namely CO2, SOX and NOX emissions, the relatively small adjustment of the traditional productivity growth measure is good news for two reasons. First, it implies that ignoring the bad outputs considered in this paper results in a relatively small bias of productivity measurement, and thus analysis based on traditional measures should be relatively reliable in this regard. Second, it also implies that the acceleration in productivity growth that would help to substantially reduce the bad outputs considered in this paper, without reducing output growth, should be possible to achieve. Une mesure de productivité avec capital naturel et des produits indésirables Ce rapport présente une mesure de croissance de la productivité qui inclut explicitement le capital naturel et des produits non-désirables, ou des « bads », comme outputs du processus de production. La discussion se focalise sur l’extension de la mesure de croissance de productivité qui provient des « bad outputs » et sur l’estimation des leurs prix virtuels, alors que l’inclusion du capital naturel est discuté plus en détail dans un autre papier. Une mesure de productivité qui ne prend pas en compte des produits non-désirés est susceptible de sous-estimer la croissance de productivité chaque fois qu’un pays dédie quelques entrants à la réduction de ces produits non-désirables, pour ainsi améliorer l’impact environnemental de ses processus de production, plutôt qu’à la croissance de la production des biens (désirables) et des services. Comme les produits non-désirables sont la cible de la politique environnementale, une analyse de comment celle-ci impacte sur la croissance de productivité requiert une mesure qui inclut les « bad outputs «, comme celle présentée dans ce papier. Sinon, il y a peu d’espoir d’obtenir une évaluation correcte de l’impact des politiques environnementales sur la promotion des processus de production qui utilisent l’environnement avec plus d’efficacité. Les résultats présentés dans ce papier suggèrent que l’ajustement de la mesure traditionnelle de croissance de productivité pour des produits non-désirables est faible. Ceci est en partie dû au fait que, faute d’avoir accès à des donnés plus complètes, les produits non-désirables inclut dans ce papier se limitent aux émissions des dioxydes de carbon (CO2), des oxydes de soufre (SOX) et des oxydes d’azote (NOX). Néanmoins, l’ajustement relativement faible de la mesure de croissance de productivité est une bonne nouvelle pour deux raisons. Premièrement, ceci implique qu’ignorer les produits non-désirables considérés dans ce papier mène à un biais de la mesure de croissance de productivité relativement faible et donc les analyses basées sur des mesures traditionnelles de croissance de productivité devraient être assez fiables. Deuxièmement, ce résultat implique aussi que l’accélération de la croissance de productivité qui contribuerait à réduire substantiellement les produits non-désirables considérés dans ce papier, sans pour autant réduire la croissance de la production des biens et des services, devrait être atteignable.
    Keywords: natural capital stock, emission shadow prices, multi-factor productivity, nitrogen oxide emissions, sulphur oxide emissions, carbon dioxide emissions, green productivity, total factor productivity, productivité globale des facteurs, productivité verte, stock de capital naturel, émissions dioxydes de carbon, émissions des oxydes d’azote., productivité multifacteurs, prix sous-jacents des émissions, émissions oxydes de soufre
    JEL: D24 O47 Q3 Q52 Q53
    Date: 2014–07–24
  23. By: Julie Rozenberg (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Céline Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] : UMR56 - CNRS : UMR8568 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - AgroParisTech); Robert Lempert (RAND Corp - RAND Corp); Stéphane Hallegatte (SDN - Sustainable Developpment Network - The World Bank)
    Abstract: The scientific community is now developing a new set of scenarios, referred to as Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) that will be contrasted along two axes: challenges to mitigation, and challenges to adaptation. This paper proposes a methodology to develop SSPs with a "backwards" approach based on (i) an a priori identification of potential drivers of mitigation and adaptation challenges; (ii) a modelling exercise to transform these drivers into a large set of scenarios; (iii) an a posteriori selection of a few SSPs among these scenarios using statistical cluster-finding algorithms. This backwards approach could help inform the development of SSPs to ensure the storylines focus on the driving forces most relevant to distinguishing between the SSPs. In this illustrative analysis, we find that energy sobriety, equity and convergence prove most important towards explaining future difference in challenges to adaptation and mitigation. The results also demonstrate the difficulty in finding explanatory drivers for a middle scenario (SSP2). We argue that methodologies such as that used here are useful for broad questions such as the definition of SSPs, and could also be applied to any specific decisions faced by decision-makers in the field of climate change.
    Keywords: socio-economic scenarios, scenario discovery, mitigation, adaptation
    Date: 2014–01–01
  24. By: Olexandr Petushyns’ky (Powislanska School); Karolina Oszwa (Powislanska School)
    Abstract: This article attempts to present ecological consequences of human activities in the context of exploration and future extraction of shale gas. This topic is at the present time very timely because of the implementation of the exploration wells in Pomerania and Lublin Region, the prevailing unrest in the areas of concessions, as well as the lack of scientific basis and sufficient legal – economics basis to enter into the production phase. The article dare the argument that the potential environmental damage from the extraction of shale gas using hydraulic fracturing are not explored enough to take the risk of industrial production. The paper used the method of literature analysis, case studies, statistical analysis based on GUS and PIG data, induction-deduction analysis, analysis-synthesis and comparisons analysis. Based on the U.S. experience, mentioned in the text, as well as current research on the introduction of other methods of extracting shale gas and recommendations of the European Union cannot be concluded that the production of unconventional gas in Poland will not cause adverse environmental and health effects.
    Keywords: extraction of shale gas, ecological consequences,
    Date: 2013–02
  25. By: Eleni Stathopoulou
    Abstract: In an international duopoly context, where two goods are produced by two firms located in two separate countries, F and NF, we study the issue of firms' environmental technology choice. When consumers in country F are environmentally aware, in the sense that they care about emissions in their own country, it is shown that the firm in country F adopts a cleaner technology compared to the firm in country NF. Moreover, leakage appears, as the demand by consumers in country F shifts to the good produced by the firm in country NF. This, in turn, provides a rationale for raising awareness among consumers in country F about the effects of their consumption on pollution in country NF. Thereby, this paper adds to the existing literature by analysing how this increased awareness may affect consumers' demand for the domestic and the foreign good and, therefore, firms' endogenous technology choice. Also, changes in each country's and aggregate pollution are examined in order to assess whether having domestic consumers aware of foreign emissions could be considered as an option for tackling leakage.
    Date: 2014–07
  26. By: M. Mizero; Théophile Ndikumana; Céline Gisèle Jung
    Abstract: In Burundi, the problem of solid waste management is acute as dependence on wood and charcoal as solid fuel is creating a major problem of deforestation [1]. The purpose of this work is to promote material and energy valorization of solid waste in Bujumbura where a preliminary study has been realized showing the inventory with the composition and the quantification of MSW (0.6 kg/day.capita). The present work is especially devoted the characterization of the briquettes made by using specific solid waste in a process developed by Bioernergy Burundi enterprise [2]. A random sampling of 3 briquettes from a 5kg package is used for the determination of their characteristics to meet the criteria to be used as solid fuel substitute. Materials to be characterized in this work are briquettes manufactured by Bionergy Burundi Enterprise [2] and their ashes. The process is using a specific solid waste mixture. The mixture consists of residues of charcoal, dry Eragrostis grass, sawdust and wood shavings from the furniture manufacturing workshops, rice hulls from the husking units and MSW (partially sorted). The mixture, in well-known proportions of the listed waste, is then heated (mainly dried), milled and introduced into a mould to produce the briquettes (L~20 cm and Φ~ 7cm). Results on proximate analysis of the briquettes are detailed in this work. The mean humidity content is in the order of 20%. Results on dry matter show an ash content of 44%, a high volatile matter of 42%. The value of the fixed carbon content is presented and is very depended on the sampling method. Fixed carbon content lies between 13% and 26%. The calorimetric bomb method (ISO 1928) has been used to evaluate the gross calorific value. The lower calorific value is then calculated (LCV~11 MJ/kg). On the other hand, to be able to use safely the briquettes as substituted solid fuel, further investigation was made to evaluate the presence of pollutants. XRF and XRD measurements were performed on the briquettes and their ashes respectively. Elemental analysis and detection of crystallized compounds are presented showing only traces of pollutants. The main conclusion of this work is that preliminary results on Bioenergy Burundi briquettes are encouraging and would incited to consider this path for the valorization of some solid waste as substitution solid fuel for charcoal. Currently, in the city of Bujumbura, energy needs for a growing population are real and the use of these briquettes as a substitution solid fuel could be one of the alternate routes.
    Keywords: waste, substitution fuel, briquettes, energy valorisation
    Date: 2014–06–16

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